There are three principal formations in the fray – the NDA, the Congress and the AUDF. How the AUDF will react will determine the fate of the other two, as far as I can see.

1.Karimganj
Spread across the districts of Hailakandi and Karimganj in the Barak valley, this is a seat where Muslims are a decisive factor one way or the other (both districts have Muslim populations in the late 40s or early 50 percent). This constituency usually features a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. The AGP has a reasonable, but not a great presence in region – it has never won the seat in the three elections, nor has it come second in any of the previous three elections, and nor does it control any of the assembly segments that fall in the area.

In the past three elections, the Congress has won all the three times, but the margin has usually been small enough, so the AGP votes, if they transfer to the BJP, might just pip the BJP past the post. The previous Lok Sabha performances indicate that while the BJP performance has been impressive, there is a worrying factor that the margin between the Congress and the BJP has been widening. In 1998, the difference between the two parties was a mere 10,000 votes. In 1999, the margin had increased to 35,000. In 2004, it was more than 90,000. The good news for the NDA is that in the two of the three elections that the AGP contested there, the AGP vote has been sufficient enough to push the BJP past the Congress. However, the NDA total vote is coming down steadily in comparison to the Congress vote (both as percentages and in absolute terms). In 1998, the NDA total vote would have seen it sail past the Congress comfortably. The 2004 vote of the two parties combined, on the other hand, would see barely be enough to beat the Congress vote. As things stand, the balance would be on a knife edge.

In the last assembly elections, of the eight constituencies, the BJP won three, the AUDF two and the Congress two, with the last taken by an independent. But what is curious is that the AUDF ended up taking a large part of the Muslim vote (traditional for the Congress), and the Congress was pushed to third place in four constituencies and fourth place in one. If this happens, then the Congress might be in trouble. Even so, it is important to emphasise that the combined NDA vote and the Congress vote were nearly on par, despite the AUDF taking a large bite out of the Congress vote. This implies that the NDA has its work cut out for it. The one solace for the BJP is that it has always done better in National elections than in State assemblies.

The BJP has fielded Mr. Sudanshu Das against the sitting MP Lalit Mohan Shuklabaidya of the Congress and the Advocate Rajesh Mala of the AUDF. The presence of Mr. Mala has torn the contest right open. With the Muslim factor looming large, the BJP’s vote share may remain untouched, but the question is whether the tea workers will vote en masse for Mr. Mala. If they do, with the AUDF’s Muslim vote, he may emerge winner. However, Mr. Shuklabaidya is no greenhorn and he has his own strong base.

Prediction: Toss up. Almost impossible to predict. All three – the NDA, the Congress and the AUDF – have very good chances of winning this seat.

2.Silchar:
Another seat in the Barak valley, this seat spans the Cachar district. This is another seat where the fight is directly between the Congress and the BJP. The AGP does not seem to have much of a presence in the seat – it has never contested the seat in the last three Lok Sabha elections, preferring to leave it to its alliance partners in the Third Front (or not contest at all). This is a seat where the BJP has won once (1998, Kabindra Purkayastha) and the Congress twice (1999, 2004, Santosh Mohan Deb). The BJP pipped the Congress to the post in 1998, and the Congress did the same in 2004. Only in 1999 did the Congress win by a comfortable majority. The Congress candidate has been representing the constituency for 10 years, so anti-incumbency might work against it. Besides, this was before the appearance of the AUDF, so that is one more factor in favour of the NDA.

The assembly elections were a close affair. Of the seven assembly segments in the constituency, the Congress represents four, the BJP two and the AUDF one. The total NDA vote is about 15,000 less than the total Congress vote, but direct correlations between the assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections don’t work. The AUDF was a factor of some significance in only two of the seven assembly segments, so it is not as strong here as it was in the Karimganj constituency. It might be able to play spoiler though, in the event of it fielding a strong Muslim candidate.

The BJP has fielded Mr. Kabindra Purkayastha once more against his old rival, Santosh Mohan Deb of the Congress. Mr. Deb’s position has been made difficult by the entry of Badruddin Ajmal of the AUDF into the fray. Badruddin Ajmal is likely to take a big bite out of the Muslim votebank of the Congress, and may leave him high and dry. On the other hand, the chances of Mr. Ajmal are also bleak since the Beltoli incident, which has ruled out any consolidation of the votes of the tea workers with the Muslims. Mr. Purkayastha is probably the only one whose votebank is untouched and if he manages his campaign well, should emerge victorious.

Prediction: Steady Advantage NDA. It needs to put its act together. If it manages to do so, it should win pretty.

3.Diphu (Autonomous District):
An expansive seat spanning two large districts (Karbi Anglong, and Diphu), this is a place where neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much presence. It has been won twice by Dr. Joyanta Rongpi (from the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC), and the CPI (ML). In 2004, it was won by the Congress. The BJP has contested twice from here, and has been in the fourth spot both the times, winning between 12 and 15 percent of the vote. The AGP has never contested from the seat.

Of the five assembly segments, the Congress has four, and the ASDC one.

The Congress has fielded Mr. Biren Engti against Dr. Jayanta Rongpi of the CPI (ML), Mr. Elwin Teron of the ASDC and Mr. Kulendu Daulagupu. Mr. Daulagupu belongs to the largest tribal group, and may also bank on the votes of the Bihari and UP-ite sugarcane growers who account for a fair number in the area. The most important issue here is a law passed by the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council, which prohibits sale or purchase of land by non-tribals. The BJP has been vocal against the law, as has the CPI (ML). Besides, there are a number of insurgent groups active in the area, and they are yet to show their hands. Much depends on which of the fence they come down.

Prediction: The changing profile of the constituency has made many of the previous predictions obsolete. All four of the parties have a decent chance, although the ASDC and the Congress may have a slightly better chance than the others.

4.Dhubri:
This seat is in lower Assam, spanning the district of Dhubri and part of Goalpara. Both districts a re Muslim majority districts, and the Congress has been winning here consecutively in the last three Lok Sabha elections. Both AGP and the BJP have their bases in the seat, but their presence is not very strong. The Congress margin of victory was more than 1 lakh in two of the three previous elections.and never has the combined NDA vote surpassed the Congress vote.

The assembly elections tell an interesting story. The AUDF has risen phenomenally in this constituency, making the contest interesting this time. Of the ten assembly segments in the seat, the AUDF holds three, the Congress two, independents hold two, the NCP, the Loko Sanmilon and the AGP one apiece. The situation here is complicated by the considerable presence of the NCP, which won one and put up a strong challenge in three more. The total votes of the Congress, the AUDF and the NDA add up to equal numbers nearly. Does this mean that the NDA has a serious chance of upstaging the Congress and/or the AUDF? It is hard to say, but the contest is likely to be triangular here, with the Congress, the AUDF and the NDA all having serious presence.

However, of the ten MLAs, eight are Muslims and it would be foolish to believe that they would help the NDA in any way. They might even ensure against splits by resorting to tactical voting.

The BJP has fielded Mr. Nilimoy Pradhani, while the Congress has not fielded a candidate yet, but is tipped to be a Muslim. What has torn all the calculations apart here is that Mr. Badruddin Ajmal of the AUDF is contesting from this constituency as well. If he consolidates the Muslim vote in his favour, he might easily win. The chances of that happening are not remote either.

Prediction: Likely to remain with the Congress or go to the AUDF. It all depends on how much the AUDF can get the Muslim vote. The NCP, while a serious challenger in the Assembly, might not be able to do as well in the Lok Sabha. The only way for the NDA to get the seat is to pray that the Muslim vote splits nearly equally between the Congress and the AUDF (and possibly even the NCP), while it gets the entire Hindu vote. Not a very likely scenario.

5.Kokrajhar:
A large constituency in the north west of Assam, it spans all of Kokrajhar district, and parts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is the home turf of the independent candidate, Bwiswamuthiary. He has been winning consecutively since the last three elections.Neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much of a chance here. They were in the fourth, or fifth spots when the contested and they have not contested in two of the three elections from here. The Congress does not seem in any better situation – their performance is nothing to write home about either. In this election, the Congress has decided not to field anyone from this constituency and is indirectly supporting Bwisvamuthiary of the BPF. The other Bodo party has thrown U G Brahma into the fray, which will lead to a division of the Bodo votes. The question is who will the Bengalis and the Muslims vote. The Muslim vote may go (to an extent, at least) to Mr. Brahma since the AUDF is supporting him, but the Bengalis will likely vote for Mr. Bwiswamuthiary.

The AGP has fielded the party general secretary Sabda Ram Rabha from this constituency, and despite his promise to get several adivasi groups included as scheduled tribes, he faces an uphill task.

Of the ten assembly segments, eight are held by independents, and one apiece by the CPI (ML) and the AGP.

Prediction: Tough going for the NDA. While Sabda Ram Rabha will doubtless make a strong impact, it remains unclear that he, or his party, has the clout to match either of the two Bodo parties. It is all but impossible to win here without the Bodo votes, and Mr. Rabha does not seem to have much influence with them. Winner will be either be Mr. Bwiswamuthiary or Mr. Brahma.

6.Barpeta:
Another constituency in lower Assam, it spans across the three districts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. Another constituency where the Muslim factor looms large, even though they are a majority only in Barpeta district. This is the first constituency (of those surveyed thus far) where both the BJP and the AGP have a decent base. In the three previous, the Congress has won all the three times, and all times with fairly comfortable margins (the smallest margin is around 70,000). However, the margin of victory has been steadily coming down. Further, the AGP had not contested this seat twice (preferring to leave it to the CPI(M)), and when it did contest, it put up a very impressive performance. The combined NDA vote in the last elections was comfortably larger than the Congress vote.

Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP holds five, the Congress four and an independent one. The AUDF is a considerable factor even here, and can only work to the detriment of the Congress. The cumulative NDA vote in the constituency is comfortably greater than the Congress vote.

The AGP has fielded three time MLA Bhupen Roy against Ismail Hussain of the Congress. Mr. Ismail Hussain was fielded after the present incumbent Mr. Osmani, of the Congress, became too unpopular, with several allegations of misuse and favouritism in distribution of MP funds. He also gained some more displeasure by ignoring the fate of the riot hit people and those affected by flood. All this is to the advantage of the NDA, and it is not clear that Hussain will be able to negate the simmering anti-incumbency factor in the area. On the other hand, some of the minority votes that came the AGP way will not come to it now because of the alliance with the BJP. It all depends on how much of an impact the AUDF will make. If the AUDF steals only the AGP’s minority votes, the NDA might lose. On fhe other hand, if it steals some of the Congress votes as well (which appears likely), the NDA will win. Overall, the NDA has some strong points here.

Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA. They need to work well together to make sure that they don’t fritter away that advantage. If all remains well, and the combine works properly, the NDA should get the seat.

7.Gauhati:
The capital of Assam. The heart of the state. The constituency covers most of Kamrup, and parts of Nalbari and Goalpara. This is a place where the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have strong bases. The Congress has won the constituency twice and the BJP once. However, it has been the AGP and the BJP ruining each other’s chances when the Congress won. The combined AGP BJP vote should see it comfortably home, and their combined vote has always been more than one lakh more than the Congress vote.

Of the ten segments in the constituency, the AGP controls four, the Congress five and an independent one. However, the BJP and AGP vote combined far outclass the Congress vote. While the BJP didd not win any seats in the assembly in the constituency, it has a strong base all over the constituency. It can easily contribute to a NDA victory. The AUDF is a factor of some importance (but not much) and can only contribute to the detriment of the Congress.

The BJP has fielded firebrand leader, Smt. Bijoya Chakraborty, against Robin Bordoloi of the Congress. While there were some initial hiccoughs for the BJP candidate, she seems to have put her house in order, more or less, although some AGP members are still grousing against her. But she is sitting pretty in the constituency. The Congress candidate has an uphill task here.

Prediction: Strong advantage to the NDA. Unless they screw up royally, they should win this seat easily, whether it is the BJP which is contesting the constituency, or the AGP.

8.Mangaldoi:
Spread over parts of Nalbari and Kamrup and the entirety of Darrang, this is another constituency in the heart of Assam. Of the three previous elections, the Congress has won twice (1998, 1999) and the BJP once (2004). However, this is another seat where the combined AGP-BJP vote has almost always surpassed the Congress vote. The Congress, the BJP and the AGP all have a strong base in the region. But any two combined could easily outclass the third. The NDA should be able to achieve this. However, the anti-incumbency factor might work against the BJP, but there is talk that Narayan Borkotoki, the sitting MP, might be replaced.

The assembly results in the previous elections are a little strange. Of the ten assembly segments, six are held by independents, and two apiece by the Congress and the AGP. The BJP put up a reasonable performance in the area in the last assembly elections, but failed to open its account. But together, the cumulative NDA vote is far greater than the Congress vote. It is also unlikely that independents will fare equally well in the Lok Sabha elections. The AUDF is a factor of some consideration here, but again, not very powerful. However, its performance seems to be equally good all over the constituency.

The BJP has fielded Mr. Ramen Deka against Mr. Madhab Ranbonshi of the Congress. The BPF has fielded a candidate as well, and the impact of this candidate is unknown. While Mr. Deka has been able to garner the support of the AGP, a section of his own partymen seem to be against his candidature, and had locked the party office in protest when he came to visit them. Nevertheless, the strong BJP vote along with the votes added by the AGP should be sufficient to see him through. The other factor worrying him is the non-performance of his predecessor, Mr. Narayan Barkakaty, who won the seat on a BJP ticket last time.

Predictions: Steady advantage NDA. The most important task before Mr. Deka is to ensure cooperation from his own partymen. If he can do it, the additional votes transferred from the AGP should be sufficient to overcome the anti-incumbency against his predecessor. Besides, the Congress state government is also facing a lot of anti-incumbency, so Mr. Deka is not badly off really, despite some surface troubles.

9.Tezpur:
Covering the entire district of Sonitpur, and parts of Nagaon and Lakhimpur, this is another district in north Central Assam. The Muslim vote is of some significance in the Nagaon district. As in the previous cases, all three parties have a strong presence in the area. The Congress has won all three Lok Sabha elections, but the combined AGP-BJP vote should easily propel it past the Congress.

Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds four, the AGP three, and the BJP two. The combined AGP-BJP vote is well above the Congress vote. Add to that, the AUDF will play spoilsport for the Congress and the latter’s fate may well be sealed.

The NDA has pitted the tea tribe leader, Mr. Joseph Toppo against the Congress candidate, Moni Kumar Subba. Mr. Subba’s controversial nature (he seems to have been born thrice, in three different places and his identity and citizenship have been questioned) may not matter too much to the people of this constituency, but charges of non-performance will definitely hit him pretty hard. Mr. Toppo cannot take things lightly since Mr. Subba is no pushover, but he has all the advantages he needs to win.

Prediction: Steady advantage NDA. As in the previous two cases, unless they do something really stupid, they should win this one.

10.Nowgong:
The constituency covers the Marigaon constituency and parts of Nagaon. This is another constituency in central Assam and all the three have strong bases here, along with the AUDF. Nagaon has a strong presence of Muslims, so the AUDF has a committed base here. Of the three previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has won twice, and the Congress once. The combined BJP AGP vote should outstrip the Congress vote hands down, since it has always done so. However, the BJP candidate, Rajen Gohain, has been representing the constituency for ten years, so he might face some anti-incumbency.

The assembly results present an interesting picture. Of the nine assembly segments, the AUDF and the Congress have three apiece, while the AGP has two and the BJP one. However, in most segments, the combined NDA vote is greater than the vote share of either of the other two competitors.

The twice sitting MP Rajen Gohain is pitted against a relative newcomer, Anil Raja of the Congress. This should make is job a touch easier, although he is facing some anti-incumbency. Nevertheless, the addition of the AGP vote and the AUDF eating into the Congress vote should make the job of Mr. Gohain easier.

Prediction: Steady advantage NDA. The anti-incumbency factor against him exists, but he is lucky not to be facing an old strong opponent. Besides, there is a strong anti-incumbency against the state government as well. He should sail through comfortably.

11.Kaliabor:
Covering Golaghat and parts of Jorhat, this is a constituency bordering Nagaland, and the home turf of the Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi. The Congress has won all the three previous Lok Sabha elections. In the first two, the margin of victory was greater than the combined votes of the BJP and the AGP, but in 2004 elections, the NDA vote was greater than the Congress vote. Further, the victory margin of the Congress has been steadily declining and the Gogois may find that their home turf is no longer as secure as they thought it might be. This area reasonable presence of all the four principal participants – the AGP, the BJP, the Congress and the AUDF. The latter is present in only parts of the constituency.

Of the ten assembly segments, the AGP holds five, the Congress three and the AUDF and an independent one apiece. The Congress vote is surpassed by the NDA vote.

The Congress has fielded the incumbent Mr. Deep Gogoi, against the AGP’s Gunin Hazarika, who is a popular man locally. To complicate matters for the Congress, the brother of the AUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, Sirajuddin Ajmal is contesting from this constituency for the AUDF. He is sure to eat into the Muslim vote of Mr. Deep Gogoi, the brother of the Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi. On the other hand, the consolidation of the NDA vote might just help Mr. Gunin Hazarika sail through.

Prediction: Steady advantage NDA, but this is the backyard of the Chief Minister and is not easily wrested. Mr. Deep Gogoi may have some other tricks up his sleeve, but thus far he has not shown them. On the other hand, the Mr. Hazarika’s popularity along with the BJP’s assistance might probably give him victory.

12.Jorhat:
Covering parts of Jorhat district and all of Sibsagar district, this is the constituency from where the present Chief Minister has been elected (he represents Titabar, which falls in Jorhat constituency). This constituency should witness a close fight. The AUDF is mostly irrelevant here. The AGP and the BJP, along with the Congress have their bases. The Congress has been winning since the previous three elections, and the Congress vote share has been nearly equal to or greater than the combined votes of the other two. On the other hand, the Congress might pay for being the incumbent.

Of the ten assembly segments, the Congress holds seven, the AGP one, the CPI one, and an independent one. In many segments, the fight was directly between the Congress and the AGP, with the BJP being a distant third. However, the BJP usually held enough votes to tip the balance in favour of the AGP.

The BJP has fielded tea cell chief, Kamakhya Prasad Tasa from the constituency against Bijoy Krishna Handique. The other candidate of some consequence is Drupad Borgohain of the CPI, who enjoys a strong base in the Sibsagar assembly segment. However, it is not clear if he enjoys similar support elsewhere. On the other hand, Bijoy Krishna Handique is a strong candidate, and may just have enough to win on his own steam, even if he is bearing the brunt of the incumbencies at both centre and state. Nevertheless, Mr. Tasa is no pushover, and the battle will be a nip and tuck one.

Prediction: Toss up. In fact, the Congress might even hold a small advantage. It is going to be an intense fight. NDA had better work together and pray that the anti-incumbency factor aids them.

13.Dibrugarh:
Covering most of Dibrugarh district and half of Tinsukhia, this is a constituency in upper Assam. All three parties – the Congress, the AGP and the BJP are strong here. The AUDF is irrelevant here. The Congress has won twice, and the AGP once. In the last election, the Congress was pushed to the third place. The combined NDA vote share has almost always surpassed the Congress vote share. Add to that, the anti-incumbency factor that the Congress must be facing and it is a recipe for disaster for the Congress. However, the only worrisome factor is that the AGP won the seat last time over, and they need to take precautions against anti-incumbency working against their candidate.

Of the nine assembly segments in this region, all three parties did well. The Congress holds six of the nine assembly segments, the BJP two, and the AGP one. The combined NDA vote is almost always above the Congress vote.

The NDA has pitted sitting MP Sarbananda Sonowal against Pawan Kumar Ghatowar of the Congress. There seems some confusion in the minds of the NDA voters about the tie up, but hopefully this should get settled down by the time of the polls, and once the campaign gets going properly. The fact that the BJP is backing Mr. Sonowal should make it easy for the latter to win. Mr. Ghatowar is not out of the race, but will have a tough time overcoming the NDA voteshare.

Prediction: Strong advantage NDA. They have all the advantages they can get here. They just need to capitalise on it.

14.Lakhimpur:
An expansive constituency spread over five districts of Lakhimpur, Tinsukhia, Jorhat, Dibrugarh and all of Dhemaji, this is a varied constituency. The Congress won here in ‘98 and ‘99, but the seat was snatched from it by the AGP. All three – the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have a good following here. The AUDF is completely irrelevant here. Two anti-incumbencies are at work. The one against the state, which will work against the Congress and one against the AGP, which had won the seat last time. The combined AGP BJP vote here has always been comfortably greater than the Congress vote share, even at the peak of the Congress wave in 1998.

Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds six, and independents three. However, the Congress victory is attributable to the BJP and the AGP cutting into each other’s votes. The combined NDA vote is greater than the Congress votes in five of the nine constituencies. Further, independents do not count in Lok Sabha all that much.

The Congress has fielded former party MP Rani Narah, but her own partymen are in open revolt against her, supporting other candidate, Bobeeta Sharma. The AGP has fielded the incumbent MP, Dr. Arun Sarma. While it is too early to write off the Congress, the consolidation of the NDA vote and the internecine warfare inside the Congress may well seal the fate of Rani Narah.

Prediction: Steady Advantage NDA. They just need to play their cards right and convert their advantage to a victory.

Final tally:
NDA – 9-10
Congress – 2-4
AUDF – 0-2
Others 0-2

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
2. Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
3. Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
4. Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
5. Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2