Apr 15, 2009
9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
I am the Sales head of my company, in charge of Eastern, Central and Western India. My areas include Eastern & Central UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam/NE, West Bengal, Orissa, MP, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. My subordinates and me travel to length and breadth of these states, including rural and semi urban areas and meet a lot of people (panchayat leaders, local groups etc). For the past 4-5 months; politics / lok sabha elections invariably come up during our discussions with them. Based on these feedbacks I am putting up my estimates for the elections in these states
1) Bihar – Caste is still a predominant factor. Muslims still have a suspicion towards LKA as PM and would prefer a UPA goverment at Centre and Nitish Kumar Govt at state level. But Nitish’s good governance plank has also made inroads as people are getting fruits of developement after a long time. Though it is an advantage JD(U)-BJP, Laloo is down but not out. It is the LJP votes that are gradually tilting towrds the NDA. Paswan is in for a shocker. INC may be blanked out.
My guesstimate : NDA = 24-27, RJD+ = 13-16, INC = 0-1.
2) Eastern & Central UP – Signs of anti-incumbency showing up especially among forward castes, who have started tilting towards the BJP, although slowly. Moreover tickets to goons given by BSP and hooliganism by their cadres are hurting the party. Dalits would vote en bloc for BSP even though signs of anger on the incumbent Chief Minister are getting visible. Minority vote is divided and I suspect that the earlier “strategic voting to defeat BJP” would be absent this time. NSA on Varun Gandhi has polarised the situation to some extent and this would deliver additional votes to the BJP in this part of UP. But ground reality is that if BJP can project Varun Gandhi as the next BJPs Chief Ministerial candidate, he would give Mayawati and Mulayam sleepless nights for UP Vidhan Sabha polls 2012. But the biggest shocker would be for SP as they are gradually losing the minority (BSP is getting stronger) and OBC (3-way split – SP/BJP/BSP) votes. BJP’s Yogi Adityanath may also be in for a shock this time. INC would be blanked out in most of the seats won by them in 2004 (Kanpur, Bansgaon, Allahabad). BJP is on a silent upswing especially in the urban areas, which is not visible to media. BSP is however still the frontrunner.
My guesstimate in these areas where I frequently visit (42 seats) : BSP = 25-28, SP = 6-8, BJP = 7-9, INC = 2-3 (including Amethi, Rai Barelli).
3) Jharkhand – Huge anti incumbency against the incumbent State Government but not so much against the Centre. Here independents are also queering the pitch. Both BJP and INC are facing internal sabotage. 3 cornered contest with slight advantage to NDA. In fact had NDA allied with JVM and JD(U) given ticket to Sri.I.S.Namdhari, it would have been a landslide.
My guesstimate : NDA = 5-7, UPA = 4-6, RJD+ = 1-2, JVM = 1, Independent = 1 (I.S.Namdhari).
4) Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh – A highly divided opposition makes the task of BJP quite easy. Leaders of INC are busy squabbling among themselves leaving its cadres directionless in both states. Anti incumbency against sitting MPs is steadily gaining ground in both states but INC is unable to capitalise. Had INC put up suitable candidates and presented a united face, they would have won around 15-18 seats in these 2 states. But this is not happening on the ground.
My guesstimate for MP : NDA = 22-24, UPA = 5-7
My guesstimate for Chattisgarh : NDA = 8-9, UPA = 2-3
5) Orissa – BJD has committed a hara kiri by breaking its alliance with the BJP. This was on the cards for quite some time now after Kandhamal violence. In fact lot of leaders of BJD who were against the autocratic style of Navin Patnaik, are joining BJP after the divorce. Navin Patnaik has created a myth of “Orissa Shining” like NDA did in 2004. Though the INC is a divided house, there is every possibility that it may become the single largest party after the assembly polls given the anti incumbency especially in rural and tribal areas. BJP is still carrying the baggage of anti incumbency of 10 years of BJD-BJP rule and would lose substantial votes this time. But in the long run it can consolidate its votes and may reduce BJD like JD(S) in Karnataka or JD in Gujarat. If however, it once again allies with the BJD post poll, then it is curtains for the saffron party and a lot of leaders would desert it. If on the other hand BJD decides to support an INC led government at the Centre (based on certain media reports), it can be rest assured that BJP would come to power on its own in the state during the next round of Assembly polls.
My guesstimate for Orissa : INC = 10-12, BJD/NCP/Left = 7-9, BJP = 3-4
6) West Bengal – Another “UPA shining” fiasco on the cards. There is a deep sense of anger in Kolkata and its adjoining districts over the anti development agenda of Smt.Mamata Banerjee. The city and its adjoining suburbs would vote against UPA in a big way leaving them high and dry. Though UPA alliance would pick some seats in rural Bengal, the media hype created would turn out to be hollow. In fact INC may lose a seat or two over 2004. BJP may win Darjeeling and Krishnanagar seats if it works hard.
My guesstimate for West Bengal : INC = 4-5, TMC = 6-7, BJP = 1-2, Left = 29-31
7) Assam – Incumbent government is in extremely bad shape with a huge anti-incumbency against both State and Centre. Adding to its woes is the recent bomb blasts and the emergence of AUDF, which is eating away minority votes in large chunks. AUDF has allied with the Left/NCP thus damaging the prospects of INC further. BJP has stitched up a smart alliance with AGP/AGP(P) and is getting stronger day by day. INC sources fear that heavy weights like Santosh Mohan Dev may also bite the dust this time.
My guesstimate for Assam : NDA = 11-12, INC = 0-2, AUDF/NCP/Left = 0-1
8)Gujarat – Though all surveys give thumbs up to Narendra Modi, but every one is missing the real picture. Recession has forced down industries and job losses are becoming a poll issue. One panchayat leader of a village in Surat area belonging to BJP, had candidly expressed the ground level is getting alarming and was becoming similar to the late 80s when a lot mills closed down, which ultimately led to the decline of the INC in the state. People are getting angry with Narendra Modi as they feel that the state government is not doing enough to prevent job losses especially in North Gujarat and Surat belt. Central Gujarat may go to INC like in 2007. Surprisingly Nano is a non-issue in Gujarat.
My guesstimate for Gujarat : INC = 9-11, BJP = 15-17
9) Maharashtra – The ground situation is peculiar. Though anti-incumbency is beginning to peak, people of Maharashtra is still ready to vote for UPA – I was very surprised with the feed back. This is particularly true among dalits and minorities. High MSP of cotton, good rains coupled with loan waiver has helped UPA to score brownie points in Vidharbha. The biggest problem plaguing the NDA is absence of charismatic leaders and ground level mistrust between SHS and BJP. Though similar mistrust exists between the UPA partners also, the committed vote base of the 2 alliances is tilted in favour of the UPA. Based on our discussions with people I guess that Marathwada region would see a UPA sweep while NDA would score substantial gains in Mumbai-Pune-Thane belt. Vidharbha area would see a 60:40 split in favour of UPA.
My guesstimate for Maharastra : NDA = 21-23, UPA = 25-27
10) NE and Goa – (added on 16 april)
Rest of NE and Goa would be as given below. Strangely Sri.P.C.Sangma (NCP) is supporting the BJP in NE, which may tilt the result of NE in favour of NDA.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Total 6 4 2 1 13
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:21 PM
congress winning 140-15- MP Seats is a dream even for sonia maino and raul vinci/
In Gujarat if BJP suffers setback, then BJP’s tally should go below 14,The last time it won.
Basing Delhi and Rajasthan on Assembly Elections is Baseless.
Congress is about to gain Only in two states : Kerala and Orissa.
In Bengal, I too feel, Left would retain a minimum of 30 Lok Sabha Seats.
Mamta Banerjee might NOT Win more than 7 and congress would probably go down from 6 to 2/3
May 2nd, 2009 at 7:35 AM
Dipak even at worst perrfrmance of bjp… The difference would be jk +1 hp +2 punjab:-1 haryana:+1 delhi:O RAJ:-11 GUJ:+6 MAHA;0 GOA;0 KARN:-1 AP:+1 ORISSA:-3 WB:+1 ASS+4 mp -3 CG -2 JHARKHAND +6 bihar +5 UP+5..did u get an idea now..as far as karnataka is concerned BJP had reachjed stauration in particar regions only..18/28 isnt saturatiion…if all tossup seats comes BJP way it will be 23 this time
May 2nd, 2009 at 3:11 AM
As far as I can see BJP itself is going to see losses from its saturation value in Rajasthan ( 11) seats, MP ( 4 seats), Karnataka ( 4 seats). They can compensate only from UP. Seats in other smaller states will be only cross compensated ( Jharkhand for Orissa, Punjab) etc. So even being a supporter I don’t see how they can better their 2004 performance of 138.
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:17 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.
April 29th, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
April 25th, 2009 at 9:59 PM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Polling-agents-caught-on-camera-casting-votes-in-Andhra/articleshow/4448918.cms
April 25th, 2009 at 7:01 PM
In Karnatak the poll turn is around 54% in the first phase. Most of educated voters/ employee didn’t cast their votes at all. At least for the coming phses, please encourage everybody to utilise their votes. It is not happen just by sending mails & forwards. Atleast on Election day every body shoud go to 4-5 neighbouring houses to your house & request them to go & utilise theire valueble votes. At the same time request them to do the same thing to inform the same message 4-5 neighbouring houses. If you find that your neighbours don’t have vote registration, take the responsibility to apply for vote imediately after the elections so that they can vote for coming elections at least. But don’t postpone them to wait for long time to register. It is the social responsibility of everybody. Please do the same. It is my kind appeal to everybody.
In AP the second phase turn out is 75.5%. ?It is very good compared with many places/states. I am expecting each state shoud record 85-95% for the coming elections(not for 2009). Only people will circulate mails regarding voter registration & all during election times. It is not correct. It should be done through out the year till all the people get their voter ID cards. Registering Vote is not at all sufficient & getting EPIC is also equally importand. Simultaneously we shoud encourage & do the same thing to get ration cards for all. With these inistiatives we can reduce the coruption also at some extent. I am always looking towards somebody who can sincearly do these two duties at least to their neighbours.
April 24th, 2009 at 3:44 PM
sure Vibhaas, will certainly Visit
April 24th, 2009 at 12:43 PM
The battle for PMhip has already started in UPA, Third front etc. The battle for emphsising that my shirt is “whiter” than yours is slowly getting over as hopefuls like Pawar and Lalu finish their assignments. But one thing is clear, whatever happens MMS will not be the PM this time. Congress and Fourth front fell apart because of the political space isue. This space was conceded by Narasimha Rao as he wanted his minoruty govt to continue. So he had to bank on the support of Lalu, Mulayam and their ilk. Last elections “Queen” allowed these satraps to have their way, but now the “Queen” realises very well that if “Yuvaraj” has to become King, only way out is that this space needs to come back. Hence Congress cannot concede any further political space to anybody. They will definitely not support any ragtag coalition from outside. And if by chance if Congress strength goes up or remains same. this battle will intensify. So to my mind unless and until congress really goes down to say 100, they will not join a govt led by somebody else nor support from outside. Hence if NDA scores around 200, they will easily form govt, as the game has changed from my shirt whiter than yours to congress vs non-congress. This is what the “queen” wants. If BJP goes down and NDA still is around 170. A Nitish Kumar led coalition or a Pawar led coalition is quite possible.
April 24th, 2009 at 12:31 PM
Anybody interested in india and what we could do to change and improve our country can visit http://vibhaas.wordpress.com/
April 23rd, 2009 at 7:38 AM
Amber you seems to be crazy.. How can Bihar go for COngress. They can’t get even 1 seat. They have no organizational presence there..
April 23rd, 2009 at 5:37 AM
Ten reasons NDA will win.
Top psephologist and pollster GVL Narsimha Rao, who has recently joined the BJP, was presented before the print media, after the party’s regular press briefing, to share his own analysis of trends in the ongoing elections.
Pointing out that he had forecast Mayawati sweeping the Uttar Pradesh polls and the BJP coming to power in Karnataka, Rao predicted that the BJP would emerge as the ‘biggest’ party and the NDA as the biggest pre-poll alliance. This, he added, would give momentum for the formation of a new government under the prime ministership of Lal Krishna Advani.
Rao factored nine reasons for his analysis – the foremost being a trend that “it is the BJP that has been setting the poll agenda while the Congress is only engaged in responding to the issues the BJP is bringing in focus … This itself is an indication of the Congress losing the elections”.
Other factors include: Unnecessary issues: The BJP remains focused on its leadership and the agenda for governance while Congress is busy with unnecessary issues such as the Kandahar hijack episode and the Babri Mosque demolition “that have no relevance in this elections”.
Leadership: The BJP has a long queue of the effective state-level leaders like Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Raman Singh, BS Yedurappa, BK Khanduri, BK Dhumal and Vasundhara Raje “who can get the party results on their own”. But the Congress has no such leaders at the state level and even at the national level, the leadership is confined to one family. Only state-level leader in Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Rajshekhar Reddy, which the Congress can boast of, has also given a poor show of the party in the first phase of elections on April 16.
Division of UPA votes: The Division of UPA votes because of regional parties – the Samajwadi party in Uttar Pradesh, the RJD of Lalu Prasad and LJP of Ramvilas Paswan –is helping the NDA make big strides.
Muslim Votes: Muslims are traditionally seen as anti-BJP but this time their votes do not seem consolidated to defeat the BJP as their votes may get divided among many parties like the BSP, SP, Congress, Ulema Council and RLD.
Better poll management and strategy: The BJP is concentrating on only 300 Lok Sabha constituencies – although its contesting on 427 seats – with attention to the minutest issues and the strategy is to grasp the ground realities through surveys to raise the local issues and not remain confined to just the national issues.
Anti-Congress climate: The anti-Congressism has emerged fast in the course of the elections, more so because of its refusing to have an alliance with any party at the national level and trying to diminish regional parties. The parties finding the Congress not allowing them to expand will do anything to prevent it from coming to power. They include the SP, RLD and LJP.
Statements of various non-NDA leaders like Jayalalithaa, M Karunanidhi, Lalu Prasad, Prakash Karat or Bardhan show that confusion and dissatisfaction prevails outside the NDA camp, Rao said. He said all these factors would help many regional parties come under the umbrella of the BJP and pave the way for the Advani-led NDA government.
April 23rd, 2009 at 4:52 AM
Ha Ha Ha Ha
Good one Mohan!
Ambar – You have to develop some self-esteem and self-confidence. Sonia is welcome to stay in the country not control the country using MMS. She is putting country in danger. PVNR without SOnia ruled much better and made India succeed. If you dump the dynasty worshiping, country will do a lot better
April 23rd, 2009 at 4:45 AM
Ambar,
Congress is going to get 500 seats out of 543.
Sonia Gandhi —-> Prime Minister
Rahul Gandhi —-> Deputy Prime Minister
Priyanka Vadra –> Home Minister
Robert Vadra –> Defense Minister
Quattarochi —-> External Affairs Minister
April 23rd, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Bihar already seems to be swaying in favor of congress.
April 21st, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Karunanidhi is one selfish moron and he has always done this kind of act. His main interest is only to increase his and his family’s wealth.
April 21st, 2009 at 4:42 PM
We are eagerly waiting for Vikas kumar’s analysis of UP.
April 21st, 2009 at 12:17 AM
Vikas ji kahan ho?you had given as excellent analysis and suddenly you disappered.Please go ahead.we are waiting your excellent views…
April 20th, 2009 at 11:20 PM
I was damn busy for past 2-3 weeks due to project deliveries (roji ka sawal hai
) so visiting the site after a long time…
Seems Vikash and Arun ji are not visiting the site for long time…
I was looking for Vikashji’s in-depth analysis on the ground situation in UP… as UP was one of the reason why BJP went down to number 2 in 2004 after a gap of 3 loksabha election…
April 20th, 2009 at 11:11 PM
Politics of caste came into the picture with the expectation of development at least from the leaders of same caste… but after the jugle raj of lalu-rabri, when the people saw the development oriented NDA govt of CM Nitish and Dy CM Sushil Modi, they are breking all the barriers of caste and religion… NDA is going to sweep Bihar… the simplest example is Lalu is not comfortable either in Saran or Patliputra even Paswan not confident in his own den Hajipur.
The only thing people is expecting is good governance and their basic necessacity of Roti, Kapda and Makaan to be addressed… thats why NDA strategist to focus on these issues with certain pinches of ideology…