I am the Sales head of my company, in charge of Eastern, Central and Western India. My areas include Eastern & Central UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam/NE, West Bengal, Orissa, MP, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. My subordinates and me travel to length and breadth of these states, including rural and semi urban areas and meet a lot of people (panchayat leaders, local groups etc). For the past 4-5 months; politics / lok sabha elections invariably come up during our discussions with them. Based on these feedbacks I am putting up my estimates for the elections in these states

1) Bihar – Caste is still a predominant factor. Muslims still have a suspicion towards LKA as PM and would prefer a UPA goverment at Centre and Nitish Kumar Govt at state level. But Nitish’s good governance plank has also made inroads as people are getting fruits of developement after a long time. Though it is an advantage JD(U)-BJP, Laloo is down but not out. It is the LJP votes that are gradually tilting towrds the NDA. Paswan is in for a shocker. INC may be blanked out.
My guesstimate : NDA = 24-27, RJD+ = 13-16, INC = 0-1.

2) Eastern & Central UP – Signs of anti-incumbency showing up especially among forward castes, who have started tilting towards the BJP, although slowly. Moreover tickets to goons given by BSP and hooliganism by their cadres are hurting the party. Dalits would vote en bloc for BSP even though signs of anger on the incumbent Chief Minister are getting visible. Minority vote is divided and I suspect that the earlier “strategic voting to defeat BJP” would be absent this time. NSA on Varun Gandhi has polarised the situation to some extent and this would deliver additional votes to the BJP in this part of UP. But ground reality is that if BJP can project Varun Gandhi as the next BJPs Chief Ministerial candidate, he would give Mayawati and Mulayam sleepless nights for UP Vidhan Sabha polls 2012. But the biggest shocker would be for SP as they are gradually losing the minority (BSP is getting stronger) and OBC (3-way split – SP/BJP/BSP) votes. BJP’s Yogi Adityanath may also be in for a shock this time. INC would be blanked out in most of the seats won by them in 2004 (Kanpur, Bansgaon, Allahabad). BJP is on a silent upswing especially in the urban areas, which is not visible to media. BSP is however still the frontrunner.
My guesstimate in these areas where I frequently visit (42 seats) : BSP = 25-28, SP = 6-8, BJP = 7-9, INC = 2-3 (including Amethi, Rai Barelli).

3) Jharkhand – Huge anti incumbency against the incumbent State Government but not so much against the Centre. Here independents are also queering the pitch. Both BJP and INC are facing internal sabotage. 3 cornered contest with slight advantage to NDA. In fact had NDA allied with JVM and JD(U) given ticket to Sri.I.S.Namdhari, it would have been a landslide.
My guesstimate : NDA = 5-7, UPA = 4-6, RJD+ = 1-2, JVM = 1, Independent = 1 (I.S.Namdhari).

4) Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh – A highly divided opposition makes the task of BJP quite easy. Leaders of INC are busy squabbling among themselves leaving its cadres directionless in both states. Anti incumbency against sitting MPs is steadily gaining ground in both states but INC is unable to capitalise. Had INC put up suitable candidates and presented a united face, they would have won around 15-18 seats in these 2 states. But this is not happening on the ground.
My guesstimate for MP : NDA = 22-24, UPA = 5-7
My guesstimate for Chattisgarh : NDA = 8-9, UPA = 2-3

5) Orissa – BJD has committed a hara kiri by breaking its alliance with the BJP. This was on the cards for quite some time now after Kandhamal violence. In fact lot of leaders of BJD who were against the autocratic style of Navin Patnaik, are joining BJP after the divorce. Navin Patnaik has created a myth of “Orissa Shining” like NDA did in 2004. Though the INC is a divided house, there is every possibility that it may become the single largest party after the assembly polls given the anti incumbency especially in rural and tribal areas. BJP is still carrying the baggage of anti incumbency of 10 years of BJD-BJP rule and would lose substantial votes this time. But in the long run it can consolidate its votes and may reduce BJD like JD(S) in Karnataka or JD in Gujarat. If however, it once again allies with the BJD post poll, then it is curtains for the saffron party and a lot of leaders would desert it. If on the other hand BJD decides to support an INC led government at the Centre (based on certain media reports), it can be rest assured that BJP would come to power on its own in the state during the next round of Assembly polls.
My guesstimate for Orissa : INC = 10-12, BJD/NCP/Left = 7-9, BJP = 3-4

6) West Bengal – Another “UPA shining” fiasco on the cards. There is a deep sense of anger in Kolkata and its adjoining districts over the anti development agenda of Smt.Mamata Banerjee. The city and its adjoining suburbs would vote against UPA in a big way leaving them high and dry. Though UPA alliance would pick some seats in rural Bengal, the media hype created would turn out to be hollow. In fact INC may lose a seat or two over 2004. BJP may win Darjeeling and Krishnanagar seats if it works hard.
My guesstimate for West Bengal : INC = 4-5, TMC = 6-7, BJP = 1-2, Left = 29-31

7) Assam – Incumbent government is in extremely bad shape with a huge anti-incumbency against both State and Centre. Adding to its woes is the recent bomb blasts and the emergence of AUDF, which is eating away minority votes in large chunks. AUDF has allied with the Left/NCP thus damaging the prospects of INC further. BJP has stitched up a smart alliance with AGP/AGP(P) and is getting stronger day by day. INC sources fear that heavy weights like Santosh Mohan Dev may also bite the dust this time.
My guesstimate for Assam : NDA = 11-12, INC = 0-2, AUDF/NCP/Left = 0-1

8)Gujarat – Though all surveys give thumbs up to Narendra Modi, but every one is missing the real picture. Recession has forced down industries and job losses are becoming a poll issue. One panchayat leader of a village in Surat area belonging to BJP, had candidly expressed the ground level is getting alarming and was becoming similar to the late 80s when a lot mills closed down, which ultimately led to the decline of the INC in the state. People are getting angry with Narendra Modi as they feel that the state government is not doing enough to prevent job losses especially in North Gujarat and Surat belt. Central Gujarat may go to INC like in 2007. Surprisingly Nano is a non-issue in Gujarat.
My guesstimate for Gujarat : INC = 9-11, BJP = 15-17

9) Maharashtra – The ground situation is peculiar. Though anti-incumbency is beginning to peak, people of Maharashtra is still ready to vote for UPA – I was very surprised with the feed back. This is particularly true among dalits and minorities. High MSP of cotton, good rains coupled with loan waiver has helped UPA to score brownie points in Vidharbha. The biggest problem plaguing the NDA is absence of charismatic leaders and ground level mistrust between SHS and BJP. Though similar mistrust exists between the UPA partners also, the committed vote base of the 2 alliances is tilted in favour of the UPA. Based on our discussions with people I guess that Marathwada region would see a UPA sweep while NDA would score substantial gains in Mumbai-Pune-Thane belt. Vidharbha area would see a 60:40 split in favour of UPA.
My guesstimate for Maharastra : NDA = 21-23, UPA = 25-27

10) NE and Goa – (added on 16 april)

Rest of NE and Goa would be as given below. Strangely Sri.P.C.Sangma (NCP) is supporting the BJP in NE, which may tilt the result of NE in favour of NDA.

State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Total 6 4 2 1 13

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
2. Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
3. Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
4. Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
5. Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh