Promise of Reason

Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh

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This entry is part 3 of 11 in the series Pre-poll seatwise predictions by Promise of Reason readers

Andhra Pradesh has to be considered in The Following Sections — Telangana, Uttar Andhra and Konaseema(Northern Coastal Andhra and The Central Coastal Andhra  together), Greater Rayalaseema(South Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema Regions together)
A. Telangana —– This Region is  A Hot Pot and All Parties with the Exception of Congress have given A nod for Telangana. Congress is banking on The “Welfare Schemes” for poor to counter The Telangana Sentiment, but, Many Insiders within congress feel it’s going to cost them a lot in The Telangana Region.
The Congress, The Grand Alliance and PRP-Mana Party(A Very local Party) have Announced Candidates for All The 119 Assembly and 17 Parliamentary Seats in This Region. BJP on The Otherhand has announced for A Majority of Assembly seats in Telangana and for only 14 Lok Sabha Seats(BJP hasnt announced any Candidate for Mahbubnagar,Zaheerabad and Peddapally Lok Sabha Constituencies). Another Party, Lok Satta, considered to be A Corporate ArmChaired Analysts Party too has announced Candidates for Majority of Seats. Smaller Players like BSP too are in the fray. There is A Huge Hype about the so called Grand Alliance(Henceforth to be Represented as GA) which has TDP,TRS,CPI(M) and CPI as Partners. PRP is NOT  so Strong in The Telangana Region and would Not poll more than 12 – 15 % of Popular Vote in Telanganadespite the presence of strong OBC Leaders such as former Home Minister, T.Devender Goud, InFact, He was so Confident of Losing from Malkajigiri Parliamentary Constituency that He also demanded Ibrahimpatnam Assembly Segment be given to Him. The Mana Party(of Backward Castes in The Telangana Region) would have only A Limited Impact, though in Chevella and Mahbubnagar Parliamentary Constituencies , They would have some effect and give a positive swing to PRP’s VoteShare.
The Congress is likely to lose all 17 Parliamentary Constituencies and even in the best case can Only Win two-three Lok Sabha Seats from Telangana. Viz, Nagarkurnool(es-SC),Peddapally(Res–SC) and Khammam.
However, in these seats too, A Lot of factors working Anti to congress.
1.Nagarkurnool, Congress has Rewarded the TDP Defector and Sitting MP, Manda Jagannath for voting in favour of UPA in Last July Confidence Motion.However, He has been An MP for a decade and Their is Anti-Incumbency working against him. Advantage Grand Alliance here.
2.PeddaPally, The Telangana Sentiment is Strong here and the present nominee, vivek(son of congress strongman, N Venkataswamy) is Not considered a Strong one and could succeed in getting party ticket Only Because of his father’s influence in the high command.Again Advantage Grand Alliance.
3.Khammam,Renuka Choudhary, The BIG Mouth is being Hated because of her Pub Bharo Call and are vexed with her goon’s activities. 50-50 Advantage for Grand Alliance and PRP
TRS has Fielded in 9 out of 17 Lok Sabha Constituencies in Telangana. Viz, Mahbubnagar,Mahbubabad(Res–ST),NagarKurnool(Res—SC),Peddapally(Res–SC),Medhak,Zaheerabad,Secunderabad,Nizamabad, Karimnagar.
Mahbubnagar is NOT A TRS Stronghold, but, KCR had to Oblige to “Lady Amitabh” VijayShanti and had to swap with her for Medhak from where KCR initially planned to contest as it is his Native District. However, With A Strong Telangana Sentiment being Active and BJP Not nominating A Candidate and PRP and Congress candidates being weak, KCR will Win this seat.
Medhak– A Cakewalk for Vijayshanti
Zaheerabad–TRS Fielded A Muslim and as this constituency has large Muslim Population, TRS would Win This Seat as well.
Secunderabad– the original TRS Candidate claimed to have bought this seat for 10crores!!! He has Lost eve n before he filed nomination. This brought ire to the cadre and has hit KCR’s reputation a lot. The TRS Workers beat the candidate and later TRS had to replace him with another candidate.
There is Anger against incumbent congress MP and A Sureshot Win for Bandaru Dattareyya of BJP, who is Highly Popular in Secunderabad, He lost the election very Narrowly last time and this time, BJP is Bound to Wrest This Seat back from Congress.
Mahbubabad(ST) will see A Tough Fight between BJP,GrandAlliance, PRP and congress. This Region has Bhadrachalam(Where Sree Rama Navmi is The Most Celebrated Festival amongst The Tribals), hence, BJP has an Edge. Any Anti-Ram Barbs will spell A Doom for The Parties here. BJP Should Encash on The Same and in A Four Way Split, BJP has Advantage.
Nizamabad — Advantage TRS. Main Battle is between TRS Candidate and the sitting Congress MP, Madhu Yakshi Goud. BJP too has A Player but in order to Defeat congress, Many would Vote for TRS.
KarimNagar — BJP did A Lot of lip flop on This Consituency. Initially, toyed with the idea of fielding city unit president(a weak candidate), but, for some Reasons, Changed the initial nominee and decided to field C Janga Reddy, A Strong Pro Telangana Voice within BJP and one of The Only Two BJP MP’s Who got Elected in ’84 General Elections. He was originally bound o contest from Bhupalpalle in Warrangal District. But,due to Stiff opposition from BJP Cadre who were Enthused after Modi Ji’s Visit here, requested Him to contest from Karimnagar. A Tough Fight on Cards between TRS and BJP.
Bhongir — This Region is A Communist Stronghold and CPI(M) has Nominated The Sitting MP from Nalgonda in The 14th Lok Sabha to contest from this newly carved constituency. However, BJP Candidate from here is Not Strong enough and PRP is Strong in Khammam as well as Nalgonda Districts in The Telangana Region(Bhuvanagiri/Bhongir is in Nalgonda District). Congress, too cant be underestimated here, though The Strong Telangana Sentiment will act against INC
Hyderabad — Main Fight is between The Jehadi asaduddin of MIM and Shiasat Editor Zahid Fielded as TDP Candidate. But,thanks to INC, which is hand in glove with MIM and has given shelter to illegal Bangladeshis and pakisthanis that they are now living as citizens of India holding Indian passport, Rationcards and Voter ID Cards that it is Advantage MIM.
BJP has fielded Satish Aggarwal, A North Indian and has weakened itself in Hyderabad(which now has 70% muslim population, post delimitation). Probably, this was to defeat MIM. PRP Fielded a muslim but she is weak and Congress placed a Hindu to ensure MIM’s victory.
Chevella — Advantage BJP. BJP By Fielding Baddam BalRam Reddy(The One Who usually used to take on owaisi of mim in Hyderabad) has hit Bull’s Eye. The Hindu Dominated Constituencies of Hyderabad(pre-Delimitation) are now Part of Chevella and Baddam BalRam Reddy is Extremely Popular here. congress, by imposing jaipal reddy has recieved ire of the cadre and the party workers are refusing to support the union minister for he was imposed against the local cadres wishes by the high command.Mana Party in Alliance with PRP is contesting here, and He will be the primary Rival of BJP’S Baddam Balram Reddy. TDP has fielded former BJP MP from Mahbubnagar, A P Jitender Reddy, however, he too like jaipal reddy is a non local and though he enjoy’s party cadre’s support, he has been asked to fight from chevella against his wishes(his choice was mahbubnagar but had to sacrifice due to TDP’s Alliance with TRS). him visiting CM ysrimmediately after filing nominations to both chevella and mahbubnagar(as a Rival) has raised many a eyebrows in GA.
Malkajigiri– A Cakewalk for BJP’s Nallu Indrasena Reddy.
Nalgonda — A Tough Fight on Cards Between, BJP,PRP,Congress and GA. Splitting of muslim Vote will give BJP an Edge.
Adilabad– in This Bastion of TRS, this Time there is NO TRS Candidate.
BJP has some base here. but, a close fight on cards.
Andhra Pradesh : In Uttar Andhra which Comprises of Srikakulam, Araku(ST),Vizianagaram,Visakhapatnam and Analkapalle constituencies.In four out of Five(with The Exception of Visakhapatnam), there’s A Stiff Three Way Fight between, INC,GA and PRP. The Advantage is Largely for PRP but again, due to splitting of Anti-Congress Votes, it could be Advantage INC. But, if one sees from The Caste Angle(The Social Front), it’s Advantage TDP(GA) particularly with the colourful Manifesto and the Manifesto being properly taken to the Public by Jr NTR.
In Visakhapatnam, BJP is The C lear Winner. By Chosing Sri D V Subba Rao, The Former Mayor of Visakhapatnam Who Turned Visakhapatnam frm AN Ordinary Town to A Beautiful City and Also Known for His Financial Integrity and Humility is The Most Popular Person in Visakhapatnam. His Services to The City and it’s inhabitants cant be Metioned in words!!!
PRP has fielded a weak candidate while congress has imposed a non local, Union Minister of State for HRD, D.Purandeshwari, D/O NTR Sr. TDP has nominated former MP, MVVS Murthy. He is the main rival for BJP here. Still, it would be A Cakewalk for BJP in Visakhapatnam.
In Konaseema, The Fight is Again A Three Way Contest between PRP,TDP,INC.Advantage PRP, congress can suffer a Rout here.
Greater Rayalaseema — A Congress Wave.
PRP and TDP do have An Effect but limited to certain constituencies.
BJP is A Non Entity in Rayalaseema except for Hindupur Parliamentary Constituency and some in A Few Assembly Seats such as Thumpallapalle,Madanapalle,Kadiri,Hindupur(Assembly segment) and Puttaparthy(probably).
That Aside, in Hindupur Parliamentary Constituency, it’s going to be BJP All The Way. BJP Nominee, K.Naresh,is The Most Beloved Child of Hindupur.
Finally Tally — Hard to Predict. Too Close to Call.
BJP — 5-7
INC —12 -15
GA — 12-15

PRP — 7-10

Take a look at these related posts:

  1. Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
  2. Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
  3. Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
  4. Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
  5. Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros

Author: Chakresh Mishra

technocrat turning to be a bureaucrat. I am an IIT Kanpur & IIT Delhi alumnus, civil services aspirant and a politico-socio blogger. I love cricket, movies and above all politics of India :-)

88 Comments

  1. Pingback: Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh

  2. A systematic analysis by Rajesh and praiseworthy.BJP can certainly manage few more seats keeping this analysis in view and formulating appropriate strategies to tilt in its favour the seats where close fight is on cards.

  3. Pingback: Topics about Politics » Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh

  4. Every prediction have/can go wrong. This is AP you are talking about and not USA where the voters are limited and predictable. If the voters turn out in large numbers then your prediction can be put to trash.

  5. @nshakelli
    100% true,
    It is Indian public, nobody can exactly predict the outcome of elections, but all of us try.
    specially Tamilnadu, AP, UP have so many parties that it is almost impossible to predict.

  6. I am told in AP the Congress will hands down purely on its money power. AP is one of the states where money power can decide election results. A result as predicted may be desirable considering the situation but may not be achievable for the BJP.

  7. I differ with you Chakresh, I am from TN. There is no question of the number of parties it is the momentum with DMK or ADMK which makes the small parties to move towards them. The results here are one sided and this is the easiest state to predict.

    I will sign on a bond paper at this point of time and give you with the content that ADMK led front will win at least 28 seats this time!!!
    Are you ready for the challenge??

  8. @nationfirst
    Yes, you are right. TN always swings one way or another. But many parties make it pretty hard for political analyst to say anything. Even this time, situation has changed after PMK joined the AIDMK front.
    So, nobody knows what will happen in next 2 months. May be congress after seeing the sinking ship of DMK, flip that side. You never know, amma had already offered this :)

  9. Sorry Buddy that will not happen till the political death of PC, mani, GK Vasan and many more leaders.

    Another important thing i would to mention is that INC will never align with ADMK in TN in near future. (Even in a postpoll scenario of May 2009).INC is waiting for the death of Karuna so that they can align with DMDK. After Karuna’s death DMDK and ADMK will emerge as the two polls of TN politics.

    Party hopper like MDMK and PMK will now on stay with ADMK as PMK is the sworn enemy of DMDK and MDMK leader Vaiko and DMDK leader Vijayakanth belong to the same caste. So you will not see any more realignment. The only realignment possible is ADMK front supporting BJP postpoll if they are in the striking distance of 272.

  10. Pingback: Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh

  11. You are absolutely right about PR having no chance in Telengana.

    Latest news from Pawan Kalayan validates the same,PR is giving up focus in Telengana in favor of Costal Andhra and Rayalaseema

    http://www.greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=14215&scat=39

  12. Thanks All!!!!

  13. I have to Add that BJP did put up candidates in Peddapally and Zaheerabad.

  14. Thank You Vishnu Bhai :)

  15. Its good if BJP can get this.But it seems to be over optimistic for me ….

    It would be good if BJP can manage around 3 seats in AP

  16. Hi,
    There are two type of polling in Telangana. One is, who( Only BJP, no role of TRS,TDP,PRP) can give Telangana and other(Only Congress can stops it) is who can stop Telangana.

    I feel, If there is pro Telangana wave, in that case BJP will get 7(very worst case, margin will not more than 10000) to 10( best case) seats in Telangana. BJP will get more than 23% votes in Telanagana area.

    PRP,TRS,TDP,Left will cut congress’s vote.

  17. Raj and Ritesh,

    I am also in favour of BJP winning more seats in Telangana region. But TRS-TDP feud is giving new energy to INC in the region.

    positive development:
    PRP is putting up Muslim and kappu candidates to cut into INC vote share.

    Negative development:
    In seats like Chevlla and Malkajagiri the BJP is literally sleeping. Infact the total congress unit in chevlla wants to defeat the Lok Sabha candidate (Jaipal Reddy) and the assembly segment candidates in the region. The disgruntled Congress party workers are moving towards Mana Party (alliance with PRP) than towards Bal Balram Reddy or Indrasena Reddy.

  18. Another classic example is Vizag. Even after having a good candidate like Subba Rao, the BJP is in poor shape in the seat!!!

  19. Hi raj,

    BJP is having two good point.

    1. Who can give Telangana and how.
    Ans. Only national party can give Telangana. It means BJP only.

    2. What is time period.
    Ans. 100 days for BJP, for TRS no time period.

    All over Telangana BJP is saying this sentence. BJP is not
    having strong base but BJP is having 6 candidates( one parliament and 5 for assembly) in each and every parliament. 6 person are doing active work.

    If there is Telangana wave, in that case ,TRS,TDP,PRP are not in picture. They will cut Congress vote only.

  20. Dear Nationfirst, The Media is underplaying BJP’s Strength.Particularly in Telangana. There is An UnderCurrent of BJP but it seems none want to notice it.
    Every one knows BJP Even in Worst case would Win in Malkajaigiri,Secunderabad,Chevella(In The Telangana Region) and Vissakahapatnam(North Coastal Andhra) and Hindupur(Rayalaseema).
    The Other Seats where BJP can Win are : Nalgonda,KarimNagar Zaheerabad,Mahbubabad/Adilabad
    and Vijayawada

  21. well Dear Nation First, I have Discussed with some others too and They too feel, BJP has a Higher Chance in The Five Constituencies I have mentioned First. Viz — Secunderabad,Malkajigiri,Chevella,Vissakhapatnam and Hindupur.

  22. Hi Raj,

    This is Arun (in different names as lkadvani.in, firnedsofbjp.org and nationfirst.in).

    My only worry is that there is no telangana sentiment in Secundarabad, Malkajagiri and Chevlla. The the local civic issues play a major role in these three constituencies. To me it appears that Anti-incumbency votes here are favoring PRP ( D Goud in Malkajagiri and Mana Party leader in Chevlla)and not BJP.

    As far as Karim Nagar is concern, the TRS candidate is a close relative of Ch Vidyasagar Rao and BJP has already given up this seat.

  23. Arun Bhai, I recognized it’s You :)
    that aside, it’s Irony that BJP is Actually strong in That Region of Telangana where There is NO Telangana Sentiment.
    However, in Chevella, there is Telangana Sentiment.
    BJP Has Hit Bull’s Eye by Nominating The Most Popular People from here.
    That is Actually Not true that Mna Party and Devender Goud are recieving Benefit in Chevella and Malkajigiri Respectively. It is Only Media Hype and The Hype by Chiru’s Party. BJP is Doing well with Door to Door Campaign in These Places.
    In KarimNagar,BJP initially planned to have a Weak Candidate, but, stiff opposition had forced BJP to change the candidate and place A Formidable one. Janga Reddy, is NO Weak Candidate.

  24. Well, I discussed with one of my colleague who is A BJP Member in Warrangal. He Asserted that BJP in Parliamentary Elections would do Well in Telangana, but, in Assembly, BJP wont be Able to Break Much Ice in Andhra Pradesh.

  25. How in the world that Vizag is in this picture? I can understand the other ones. It is the money that will outweigh the honest B.V.Rama Rao.

    what is the analysis behind Vizag seat.

  26. Dear Muppi, Ask anyone from Vissakhapatnam and They would say, Their Vote would be for Sri D V Subba Rao. He is The Most Popular Man in Vissakhapatnam.

  27. State of BJP in AP

    http://expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Attrition+problems+plague+State+BJP&artid=tVv8FRzahhg=&SectionID=e7uPP4|pSiw=&MainSectionID=fyV9T2jIa4A=&SectionName=EH8HilNJ2uYAot5nzqumeA==&SEO=

  28. But Dear Arun, Even recently, Many TRS Leaders and some of The Founder Members of TRS have Joined BJP.Mudragada Padmanabham is APerenial Defecrtor and so is HariRam Jogiah.
    NTR’s eldest son in law left BJP because he was square with his co-brother CBN with whom BJP continued Alliance in 2004.
    True KrishnamRaju joined PRP, where is he there now?
    just before elections, 2 PRP Leaders including a former TDP Minister and A Former TDP MLA have joined BJP
    Media just wants to present one side of the story and dishearten BJP loyalists in the state.

  29. Indrasena Reddy of BJP looks all set to sail through Malkajgiri.

    http://andhraheadlines.com/State/BrowseArticle.aspx?tab=1&ArtID=41175

    These stupid opinion polls are still predicting no seats for BJP. I really think they lack the scientific and regress analysis.

  30. I have Already said that.
    In Secunderabad, Malkajigiri and Chevella it Will be BJP All The Way.
    Devender Goud was sure, He would NOT be Able to Win from Malkajigiri and therefore demanded PathanCheru Assembly Seat.
    He Even Threatened to Quit PRP and Join BJP(had He been Denied The Additional Assembly Seat), as per internal sources within PRP.
    Congress Candidate, is a non local and further is highly unpopular and has a Bad Reputation.
    TDP has Almost Zero Presence in The Twin Cities. In Hyderabd too, this time it is because of The Candidate, Siasat Editor that TDP is Making it’s Presence Felt.

  31. Your prediction is quite sensational! No other poll is giving the BJP any seat. You are putting it almost neck-to-neck with Chiranjeevi and are also forecasting a near rout for the Congress. It seems you know something that none of the national channels is talking about.

  32. Well, Vinod Ji, The so called National Parties take the view of congress and communist party workers probably.
    BJP’s Vote share is Limited in AP.
    But, then is Concentrated around Hyderabad Region and in Visakhapatnam,Vijayawada and Hindupur Parliamentary Constituencies.
    In Hindupur it is Mostly because of The Candidate and in Visakhapatnam, due to Nomination of Sri D V Subba Rao, BJP Will Win This Seat.
    Vijayawada is Hard, but, BJP can still give A Fight.
    Secunderabad, Malkajigiri and Chevella for Sure Will Come The BJP Way. Modi Ji’s Visit to The City has Boosted BJP Cadre A Lot.
    And The Recent comments by Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee President D Srinivas that He would chop off the hands of Hindus will Only Help BJP. BJP has made this a serious Election Issue.
    Therefore, BJP Will Win A Minimum of 5 Lok Sabha Seats in Andhra Pradesh. Viz, Secunderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella(All in Telangana) and Vissakhapanam and Hindupur.
    PRP Has Potential to Win about 6 Lok Sabha Seats(Mostly in North and Central Coastal AP)

  33. Can BJP get deposit in Mahabubabad(st) segment?
    What do u know about Mahabubabad?

  34. BJP Will Certainly come Strong in Mahbubabad(ST).
    I Didnt say BJP Will Win in Mabhubabad.
    BJP has Presence in Tribal Belts.

  35. Regarding Khammam, it shall go to TDP candidate Nama Nageswara Rao. I am not agreeing that BJP will win 5-7 MP seats. It may not be more than 1. It is advantage to TDP lead Mahakutami because of populastic free schemes like free colour TVs and monthl Money transfer to poor families. With thanks.

  36. TNR, Secunderabad, Malkajigir and Chevella are Already in BJP’s Kitty. 7 may be High. I do Admit. but 5 is Reasonable.

  37. As long as Congress is Lost it’s good.
    Better would be Hung in Favour of TDP and BJP,TRS Emerging as King Makers.
    That would Help Creation of Telangana and also, NDA

  38. No survey is giving a loksabha seat to BJP in A.P.I wonder whether it is a political conspiracy against BJP or ground reality? If the surveyors are honest in thier analysis,may be
    there is under current in favour of BJP,which they are not able to read.I understand from the good inputs of the participants of this forum,BJP has sufficient ground to win atleast 3-4 seats.Is there any sudden change or wave in favour of any party that undermines the winning chances of BJP?Can any participant give his honest opinion?

  39. Vishnu, It is A Political Conspiracy.
    But, The Ground Reality is Different.
    People, The BJP Voters are quite Intelligent.
    Therefore, Dont Worry.

  40. There is Only An UnderCurrent AGAINST PRP, People are completely disheartened by and only chiru fan club is making noise like, Empty Vessels Make Hell Lot of Noise

  41. Hi Raj,

    I have got information from one BJP leader. Congress is paying huge money to TV channels and newspaper for all these surveys.

  42. And certainly in Urban Areas, Particularly in The Twin Cities of Hyderbad and Secunderabad, There is A Huge UnderCurent in Favour of BJP

  43. The latest analysis says that BJP can get at least 5 seats (Secundrabad, Malkajgiri, chevvella, Hindupur & Vishakhapatnam seats. Since BJP candidates can’t spend more money in elections, so serveys can’t get the correct feedback. BJP is working very hard to take their agenda to the people. And also BJP has the strong base in all the above constituencies. And all news papers & TV channels are polarised towards its favorite political party/group, so we can’t get exact situation in the battle war. ETV & Enadu paper is a pomplet for TDP & Mahakutami. Vartha is a pomplet for Congress (INC) & MaaTV is a channel for Praja Rajyam Party (PRP). And no channel is there for BJP. So BJP candidates are working hard against bad propagation of its performance in the coming elections.

  44. What is the information on number of seats BJP can manage in A.P assembly.Can any one name those constituencies with BJP’s winning probability?

  45. Thatz Great Chandra. Even The Candidates and Cadre of congress,td and prp know that in Secunderabad, Malkajigiri and Hindupur, Only BJP Will Win.
    In Chevella and Vissakhapatnam, It’s A Fight and BJP Will Emerge as A Clear Winner.
    In Assembly, BJP can get about 25 Seats, Mostly Concentrated around Hyderabad-Secunderabad Regions. Out of 23 Assembly Segments in This Region, BJP Will Win 12

  46. I believe Nizamabad and sirpur will be in BJP’s kitty, Since D.Srinivas has lost his ground on religion.

  47. Hi everyone BJP will win almost 25 Mp seats in 2009 elections in Andhra. Have a look at the results after May 2009. This is becasue of people are looking for a change in politics. One thing I am assuming is that BJP voter will always vote for BJP, they will not split because of some reason yyyyy. Voters of congress and TDP are going to split because of PRP. If we compare with previous elections there are many areas where BJP has lost seats with minimal votes. As the voters of Congress and TDP are going to split this would be a big advantage to BJP. As spliting of BJP voters will not happen these votes are solid votes to BJP MP’s but it is not in the case of MLA’s because as the regional and national parties are totally 8 to 10 in number. predictions maight end up into newly emerged party.

    Thanks,
    Nethaji.

  48. Nethaji, Are You ,Mocking?
    BJP At The MOST Can WIN Only in About 7 Lok Sabha Seats in Andhra Pradesh.
    Most Likely Seats From Where BJP Will Win in AP : Malkajgiri,Secunderabad,Chevella,Vissakhapatnam and Hindupur.
    Tougher Seats : Nalgonda,Karimnagar,Nizambad,Warrangal(SC) and Bezawada(Vijayawada, Very Hard)

  49. mahakootami will get 12 seats in telangana region itself. 5-6 seats in rest of andhra.

    thats makes 18

    prp will definetely get 6 seats

    bjp may end up with 2 seats

    loksatha with 1

    cong and alliance end up 13-15

    siriarun

  50. siriarun, you really messed up with calculations.
    In Telangana : BJP Will Win Secunderabad,Malkajgiri(Even The Worst Critics of BJP have accepted That BJP Will Win These Two Seats) and Also in Chevella.
    TRS Will Win : Mahbubnagar,Medhak,Zaheerabad
    TDP Will Win : Hyderabad,Khammam
    FOR SURE!!!
    High Voter Turnout in Northern Telangana has worried congress
    Lower voter turnout in Souther Telangana is worrysome to GA.
    Lower voter turnout is Advantageous congress in : Mahbubabad(ST) and Nagerkurnool(SC)

  51. Assembly Seats BJP Will WIN in Telangana(Hyderabad-Secunderabad would be more accurate): Mudhole,Nizamabad(Urban),Malakpet,Amberpet,Maharajganj,LB Nagar,Musheerabad,Goshamahal,qutbullahpur for Sure.
    I Dont remember the names of some more constituencies, But, BJP Will Sweep Hyderabad-Secunderabad-Rangareddy Assembly Segments and Will Win Three of The Four Parliamentary Constituencies from here,viz;Secunderabad,Malkajgiri,Chevella

    In The Other Part of AP Where Polling for Phase-I took place,It’s Only in Vissakhapatnam Parliamentary Constituency that BJP has some edge.Araku, being ST in Future has Potential to send BJP Candidates and for That to Happen, VHP Should do Groundwork in The Tribal Belt of AP,Which Runs Parallely to The Coastal Belt(one can say, outer coastal belt)bordering Orissa and Chatttisgarh

  52. PRP is riding on silent wave/ revolution(nishadb viplavam) in its favour. I contacted few of my friends from telangana/ hyd and they have voted for PRP.

  53. No, Mr. Hari. Silent wave for PRP is Impossible as it is A Mass Party.
    PRP has accepted Defeat in Telangana and The Response too was low.
    PRP seems to be More Noise and Nothing else.
    The Poll Observers have Found That BJP Which was Written Off earlier in Telangana For Sure Will Win in Malakjgiri and Secunderabad Parliamentary Constituencies and MIM will lose Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency to TDP Nominee Zahid Ali
    BJP in Addition will also do well in Chevella.
    And The Mood in Congress is DULL and Lacklusture and are therefore trying to Garner as Many votes as possible in Phase-II in AP

  54. Hi,

    PRP is helping only BJP indirectly. It will cut congress and TDP votes.

  55. http://dailypioneer.com/171043/Chiru-helps-TDP-to-sweep-Cong-goes-under.html

    Chiru helps TDP to sweep, Cong goes under

    With only a day left for the second-phase electioneering to end for 140 Assembly and 20 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, the main Opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) seems to be breezing ahead of the ruling Congress in the crucial belt of East and West Godavari and Krishna districts of coastal Andhra.

    Just as the region is a mix of fertile delta and dry uplands, it is also a melting pot of the Kammas, Kapus, Setti Balija and Scheduled Castes. And its importance lies in the fact that it accounts for 50 Assembly and seven Lok Sabha seats. Though initially one thought the region would witness a clean sweep by Telugu superstar Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) as he hails from West Godavari district which has pockets of concentration of his Kapu caste, the TDP’s surge looks certain now.

    The TDP owes its apparent gain to PRP’s dent into the traditional Kapu vote bank of the Congress. The TDP, which had a stronghold in the region but was routed by the Congress in 2004, now looks set for a comeback. The Congress wave here had helped it win 44 of the 50 Assembly seats.

    But as per ground realities now, the TDP seems to be comfortably placed in at least 23 Assembly seats. The Congress has an edge on 10 and PRP on four. A tough fight is on the cards on nine seats, with the CPI likely to win one. The entire electoral battle in this region, however, is revolving around the caste factor and personality cults, with no major single issue dominating the campaign. With the caste factor at play, social tensions have occurred (many small-scale and at least one major one in the Konaseema region on Sunday).

    Of the seven Lok Sabha seats in the three districts, the three main parties seem to be having mixed fortunes. In Rajahmundry, in the battle of two yesteryear film heroes, TDP’s Murlimohan is better placed against PRP’s Krishnam Raju. In Amalapuram (SC), Harshakumar of the Congress, Dr Varalakshmi of the TDP and Pramila Devi of the PRP, all from Mala sub-caste of Dalits, are locked in a keen battle. In Kakinada, Union Minister Pallamraju looks likely to retain the seat for Congress.

  56. Good Work Manoj.
    TDP Would Any Day DUMP Left for BJP post poll.
    BJP has Done Well in Telangana and This Would Further Help BJP-TDP-TRS Coming together.
    TRS has already Announced They in Most Probablility would Support NDA if The Situation Arises.

  57. BJP has however, NO Stakes in The Second Phase of Polling in Andhra Pradesh Except in Hindupur Parliamentary Constituencies and in few Assembly Segments in Rayalaseema

  58. There is great under current to BJP it will blossom with colors.
    According to estimates there might be minimum 26 Assembly and 7-10 LS predicated.
    BJP will emerge as a major political force with 25% vote bank in AP after you see 16 May results.
    There is possibility of BJP coming to power after 2010 in AP. There is Hindutva wave about to blow from 2010 and BJP will come in Power both in AP and center.

  59. I think 10 seats would be too much… ADvaniji would be happy tosee 3LS seats from AP.Howver I fell it would be2

  60. Raghuram, 10 Lok Sabha Seats for BJP From AP is Wishful Thinking.
    7 Seems to be Likely.
    As Per Post Poll Analysts : Secunderabad,Malkajgiri,
    Chevella,Adilabad(ST) and KarimNagar would come BJP Way
    And Vissakhapatnam and Hindupur are The Other two Parliamentary seats where BJP is Likely to Emerge as Winner.
    PS: Hindupur is my Inclusion

  61. If I have to say in achcha telugu (My Guntur/Vijayawada telugu) I would say “BJP KI ANTHA SCENE LEDHAMMA. OKKA MP seat VASTHEY CHALAAAAAAAAAAA EKKUVA, panichoosuko”

  62. ore mad-anagaa (meaning hey mad fellow), your christian communal corrupt congress and oppurtunist castist corrupt prp will bite Dust.
    BJP has Already Won 5-7 Lok Sabha Seats in Andhra Prasedh and Only The Margin Of Victory is to be Noted on May 16th 2009

  63. Hi Raj- I am impressed by your analysis and assessment. But only one question- why is nobody in the media- including “The Pioneer” giving the BJP any chance in Andhra Pradesh? The Pioneer reported that only chance BJP has is in Secunderabad- from where Bandaru Dattatreya is contesting. On Hindupur- it said the fight is between TDP and Congress! But what is surprising is that an anti- BJP newspaper like “The Hindu” gave BJP a chance in Andhra Pradesh-http://www.hindu.com/2009/04/16/stories/2009041659060200.htm
    It also gave BJP a chance in Adilabad- http://www.hindu.com/2009/04/19/stories/2009041960270500.htm

  64. Why is The Pioneer not giving any chance to BJP?

  65. Pioneer has NO Staff in AP.
    Yes, The Hindu, A Blatantly Anti BJP Paper has finally Admitted that There was A Strong undercurrent for BJP in AP Particularly in Telangana Region and Specially in The Hyderabad-Secunderabad-Rangareddy Part.

  66. Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)

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  67. Raj,
    What are BJP’s chances in Tamil Nadu? I think Kanyakumari is one place where BJP can win. Pon Radhakrishanan has a good chance here. In 1999- BJP won 4 seats- Nagercoil (Kanyakumari)- Chennai North, Nilgiris and Coimbtore. Any chance for BJP this time- in South Chennai- from where La Ganesan is contesting, Ramnathpuram- from where Thiruvanukkarsar is fighting- Nilgiris, Coimbtore, Trichi? And Tirunelveli- or some such city’s name which BJP lost by 978 votes in 1999?

  68. Congrats Chakresh Bhai for getting Noticed!!!!!

  69. Manmath, in ’99 BJP Won in Coimbatore, Nagercoil(Now Kanniyakumari constituency),Tiruchirapalli and Nilgiris.
    Thirunavukarasar(Then Known as Thirunavukarasu) won as
    MGR-AIADMK Candidate from Pudukottai and Later Merged The Party with BJP
    This time around, BJP is For Sure to Win Kanniyakumari and going by Campaigning and The Following He has, Thirunavukarasar is likely to Wrest Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency.
    South Chennai is An Elite Constituency and if Brahmins who constitute 22% of This Constituency if come out and Vote scrothcing The Hot Sun, Ila Ganesan is Certain to Win in South Chennai

  70. Awesome news! Read this… The POR prediction is coming true. The DIEnasty is going to get a shock of their life.

    According to TimesOfIndia, CON party did bad in Maharastra, Mumbai, Bihar. BJP did better even in UP.

    ——————————————————
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Make-or-break-for-BJP-today/articleshow/4465737.cms

    NEW DELHI: The third round of polling in 107 Lok Sabha seats on Thursday is a crucial test for BJP which needs to perform well in states where it
    is in office to retain the credibility of its challenge.

    The round is also crucial for Congress which hopes to makes inroads into the saffron belts, and for the Left which must contain its widely anticipated losses in the first round of polling in West Bengal while hoping for handsome returns for BSP in UP. But with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar, Maharashtra and UP in play, stakes are definitely higher for the BJP.

    For the big two on the national scene, Thursday’s polling may go a long way in deciding final tallies. After a patchy second round comprising 141 seats, Congress needs to hold on to seats in Maharashtra, make gains in Mamata Banerjee’s company in West Bengal and dent BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka to improve its 2004 tally of 145. A good showing can give the UPA lead player a shot in the arm, and will enable it to bargain hard in the post-poll powerplay, particularly with regard to its leadership claims.

    For BJP, the stakes are higher with 11 seats in Karnataka, 16 in MP and all 26 in Gujarat going to polls. In MP, it must repeat its feat of last year’s Assembly polls to beat back anti-incumbency. In Gujarat, it is depending on saffron strongman Narendra Modi to return a bigger tally, while hoping that caste alliances could help tide over an average performance by the B S Yeddyurappa government.

    Of the total 107 seats up for grabs on Thursday, Congress held 24 in 2004 while BJP had won 27. Left Front had won 11 of 14 seats going to polls in West Bengal.

    Some of the bigwigs in the fray include Congress chief Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli, BJP leader L K Advani in Gandhinagar, former PM H D Deve Gowda in Hassan and Jaswant Singh in Darjeeling.

    The going for BJP in MP is harder this time with local factors affecting some seats, but divisions in Congress could go in its favour. Besides, the saffron party also hopes to tap chief minister Shivraj Chauhan’s emergence as a satrap and the return of rebel leader Uma Bharati to the BJP fold even though she is yet to formally rejoin.

    In Gujarat, Narendra Modi has sought to latch on to Supreme Court’s ruling ordering a probe into his role in the 2002 riots, painting himself as a `victim’ to add pungency to the battle. The chief minister has called the SC order as a Congress plot against a Gujarati “son-of-the-soil”, in a repeat of his strategy when he used Congress chief Sonia Gandhi’s “maut ka saudagar (merchant of death)” remark to shape the 2007 assembly polls.

    This time, he has set the bar higher for himself with his big win in the 2007 assembly polls. By fielding new faces, Modi has tried to limit the wages of incumbency, while an outreach to new caste groups has been attempted in order to lessen dependence on BJP’s traditional base.

    Congress had won 12 seats in 2004 and would like to probe BJP’s weaknesses in the tribal belt and encash any division of saffron votes due to a front of BJP rebels contesting some seats.

    In Karnataka, the third round includes Hassan, a Deve Gowda stronghold, and coastal belt of Mangalore which was hit by communal violence against churches and the infamous pub attack, both the handiwork of Ram Sene, a Hindutva group. BJP feels it will gain in Dakshina Kannada and Mysore and wrest Shimoga where chief minister Yeddyurappa’s son Raghvendra takes on former CM S Bangarappa.

    In Maharashtra, it is mainly the six seats in Mumbai and adjoining urban and semi-urban seats of Kalyan, Thane, Bhiwandi and Palghar that will go to polls. Congress appears to have under-performed in the 25 seats in the second round and the task is tougher now. In Mumbai, it will face both incumbency at central and state levels in terms of issues like 26/11 and civic factors. The party had swept all but two of the seats in the Mumbai-Thane stretch. Indications suggest that Shiv Sena-BJP may be closing in this time.

    NCP boss Sharad Pawar’s last minute effort to mend fences with Congress, even putting his prime ministerial claims in the background, seem to indicate the alliance is not doing as well as it had hoped. BSP has been steadily eating into Congress’s vote share. Though a bigger factor in Vidarbha, BSP has a presence in the third round seats as well.

    In West Bengal, the Left faces the combined Congress-Trinamool Congress with the comrades holding eight of the 14 seats going to polls. Left is facing a fight on seats like Purulia and Bankura with a rejuvenated opposition fancying its chances on the strenth of resentment over land acquisition, Left Front’s poor score sheet and alienation of minorities from it. CPM veterans like eight-time MP Basudev Acharya are in the fray while ailing Congress leader Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi’s wife Deepa is contesting from Raiganj.

    In the 11 seats that go to polls in Bihar, JD(U)-BJP seems confident about eight while there could be tough contests in constituencies like Kishanganj, Banka and Purnia. JD(U) rebel Digvijay Singh has gained some upper caste sympathy in Banka and could damage the ruling combine while NDA is looking for wins in Madhepura, Supaul and Bhagalpur. NDA is looking to benefit from Congress dipping into Muslim votes at the expense of the RJD-LJP combine.

    In UP, 15 seats in the central part of the state will be going polls and Congress and BJP both hope to pick up a few seats. The main contenders remain BSP and SP, but going by trends reported by parties and analysts so far, the contests have been far from bi-polar in quite a few seats. It is certainly most crucial for SP which risked Muslim alienation by partnering BJP rebel Kalyan Singh chiefly for grabbing a lead here. Both BSP and BJP will still look forward to turning in its best performances in the next two phases which will cover western UP and north-west parts of the state.

  71. BJP won Trichi in 1999? Whats the chance this time in Trichi- from where Lalitha Kumaramangalam is contesting- I think- and Coimbtore?

  72. You are right. BJP won Trichi- and not Chennai North in 1999. What are the chances in Tirunelveli? This seat was given to Sarath Kumar I think- and he insetad of fielding his candidate- opted to support the TNMMK-and this result in BJP fighting this seat? Is this information correct? I think BJP lost from here by 978 votes in 1999.

  73. Dear Manmath, Sarath Kumar is contesting from Tirunelveli it is in Tenkasi that his party could not get a candidate(SC) and decided to support Krishnasway of Puthiya Tamizhagam. However, his party has alliance with MMK, Political outfiit of a TN Based muslim outfit and Hence BJP was reportedly upset. However, I am NOT Sure, if BJP has put up a Candidate in Tenkasi this time.

    Regarding Tirunelveli, Yes, Sarath Kumar Will Win from here.
    And as far as Tirchy is concerned, very Hard this time.
    BJP Won this seat in ’98 and ’99 as R P Kumaramangalam(Ranga as He is known) joined BJP Just before Elections. However, after His Demise, BJP Lost Influence in This Region and His Sister(The Present BJP Candidate),Lalitha Kumaramangalam could NOT Generate Sympathy in The By
    Election.

  74. Coimbatore? The place of the deadly 1998 bomb blasts- which nearly killed L K Advani- and is very sensitive communally. Any chance for BJP from here?

  75. Any chance for BJP in Coimbatore and Nilgiris this time?

  76. 5-7 for BJP?

    I mean, that’s quite surprising – even after factoring your visible BJP bias.

  77. Manmath, BJP Lost it’s Clout in Coimbatore post ’99.
    And Mr. Raghu, even Anti BJP Media have acknowledged that Secunderabad, Malkajgiri,Chevella,Adilabad,Vissakhapatnam would come BJP Way and Karimnagar would also see BJP Flag Flying High.
    Hindupur is one constituency, The Very Local Media is pinning on BJP

  78. And Mr. Manamath, for more Discussion on TN, There’s A Separate Topic and We can discuss there

  79. Yes- I have read your article separately on Tamil Nadu. Nice analysis!

  80. Thank You Manmath :)

  81. i dont know in what basis are u giving this analysis,plz see the website of ndtv http://elections.ndtv.com/frmopinionpoll3.aspx

  82. NDTV is NEVER DELIVER TRUE VERSION.
    There ONLY Aim is to prevent India becoming Strong and Break India to Pieces

  83. This NDTV report- is only showing the “emerging trends” and it is not even a proper exit poll. In West Bengal- BJP is winning Darjeeling, Alipurduar seats. It may also win Dum Dum- Tapan Sikdar and Krishnanagar. BJP in Tamil Nadu is winning Kanyakumari. Analysis of NDTV is inaccurate.

  84. RAJ: BJP will at best win 3 LS seats. I’m a BJP supporter too but a realistic one.

  85. Well Raghu, Poll Observers Have Admitted that Secunderabad, Malkajgiri are Sure Seats for BJP and BJP is sitting Pretty well and is Comfortably Ahead in Chevella, Vissakhapatnam, Adilabad.
    In Addition;KarimNagar and Nizamabad have to be watched out for.
    It seems, D Sreenivas(Andhra Pradesh Congreess CommitteePresident) has made it certain that BJP Would Win Nizamabad(Urban) as he went overboard by saying he would chop off The Hands of Hindus if They blame Terror Activities on Jehadis and would protecrt Jehadis as long as he gets elected.
    This was Aired throughout by Local Media(Particularly INews,HMTV,ETV-2 etc) and had Generated Anger against Congress in Already Polarized Telangana.
    Hindupur is Another Seat where BJP will Win which Everybody has Not Considered.

  86. Devender Goud and chiru are at odds.
    It seems prp is now coming to terms with reality that devender Goud is likely to lose Malkajgiri Parliamentary seat BADLY and is also likely to lose Ibrahimpatnam assembly segment!!!!!!!!!
    if That is so, prp may end up with NIL in Telangana

  87. hi friends i want to knw the constituency wise muslim papulation in A.p if any one having data/inf at ur side plz inform me

    thank you

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