by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 31, 2009Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
Andhra Pradesh has to be considered in The Following Sections — Telangana, Uttar Andhra and Konaseema(Northern Coastal Andhra and The Central Coastal Andhra together), Greater Rayalaseema(South Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema Regions together)
A. Telangana —– This Region is A Hot Pot and All Parties with the Exception of Congress have given A nod for Telangana. Congress is banking on The “Welfare Schemes” for poor to counter The Telangana Sentiment, but, Many Insiders within congress feel it’s going to cost them a lot in The Telangana Region.
The Congress, The Grand Alliance and PRP-Mana Party(A Very local Party) have Announced Candidates for All The 119 Assembly and 17 Parliamentary Seats in This Region. BJP on The Otherhand has announced for A Majority of Assembly seats in Telangana and for only 14 Lok Sabha Seats(BJP hasnt announced any Candidate for Mahbubnagar,Zaheerabad and Peddapally Lok Sabha Constituencies). Another Party, Lok Satta, considered to be A Corporate ArmChaired Analysts Party too has announced Candidates for Majority of Seats. Smaller Players like BSP too are in the fray. There is A Huge Hype about the so called Grand Alliance(Henceforth to be Represented as GA) which has TDP,TRS,CPI(M) and CPI as Partners. PRP is NOT so Strong in The Telangana Region and would Not poll more than 12 – 15 % of Popular Vote in Telanganadespite the presence of strong OBC Leaders such as former Home Minister, T.Devender Goud, InFact, He was so Confident of Losing from Malkajigiri Parliamentary Constituency that He also demanded Ibrahimpatnam Assembly Segment be given to Him. The Mana Party(of Backward Castes in The Telangana Region) would have only A Limited Impact, though in Chevella and Mahbubnagar Parliamentary Constituencies , They would have some effect and give a positive swing to PRP’s VoteShare.
The Congress is likely to lose all 17 Parliamentary Constituencies and even in the best case can Only Win two-three Lok Sabha Seats from Telangana. Viz, Nagarkurnool(es-SC),Peddapally(Res–SC) and Khammam.
However, in these seats too, A Lot of factors working Anti to congress.
1.Nagarkurnool, Congress has Rewarded the TDP Defector and Sitting MP, Manda Jagannath for voting in favour of UPA in Last July Confidence Motion.However, He has been An MP for a decade and Their is Anti-Incumbency working against him. Advantage Grand Alliance here.
2.PeddaPally, The Telangana Sentiment is Strong here and the present nominee, vivek(son of congress strongman, N Venkataswamy) is Not considered a Strong one and could succeed in getting party ticket Only Because of his father’s influence in the high command.Again Advantage Grand Alliance.
3.Khammam,Renuka Choudhary, The BIG Mouth is being Hated because of her Pub Bharo Call and are vexed with her goon’s activities. 50-50 Advantage for Grand Alliance and PRP
TRS has Fielded in 9 out of 17 Lok Sabha Constituencies in Telangana. Viz, Mahbubnagar,Mahbubabad(Res–ST),NagarKurnool(Res—SC),Peddapally(Res–SC),Medhak,Zaheerabad,Secunderabad,Nizamabad, Karimnagar.
Mahbubnagar is NOT A TRS Stronghold, but, KCR had to Oblige to “Lady Amitabh” VijayShanti and had to swap with her for Medhak from where KCR initially planned to contest as it is his Native District. However, With A Strong Telangana Sentiment being Active and BJP Not nominating A Candidate and PRP and Congress candidates being weak, KCR will Win this seat.
Medhak– A Cakewalk for Vijayshanti
Zaheerabad–TRS Fielded A Muslim and as this constituency has large Muslim Population, TRS would Win This Seat as well.
Secunderabad– the original TRS Candidate claimed to have bought this seat for 10crores!!! He has Lost eve n before he filed nomination. This brought ire to the cadre and has hit KCR’s reputation a lot. The TRS Workers beat the candidate and later TRS had to replace him with another candidate.
There is Anger against incumbent congress MP and A Sureshot Win for Bandaru Dattareyya of BJP, who is Highly Popular in Secunderabad, He lost the election very Narrowly last time and this time, BJP is Bound to Wrest This Seat back from Congress.
Mahbubabad(ST) will see A Tough Fight between BJP,GrandAlliance, PRP and congress. This Region has Bhadrachalam(Where Sree Rama Navmi is The Most Celebrated Festival amongst The Tribals), hence, BJP has an Edge. Any Anti-Ram Barbs will spell A Doom for The Parties here. BJP Should Encash on The Same and in A Four Way Split, BJP has Advantage.
Nizamabad — Advantage TRS. Main Battle is between TRS Candidate and the sitting Congress MP, Madhu Yakshi Goud. BJP too has A Player but in order to Defeat congress, Many would Vote for TRS.
KarimNagar — BJP did A Lot of lip flop on This Consituency. Initially, toyed with the idea of fielding city unit president(a weak candidate), but, for some Reasons, Changed the initial nominee and decided to field C Janga Reddy, A Strong Pro Telangana Voice within BJP and one of The Only Two BJP MP’s Who got Elected in ’84 General Elections. He was originally bound o contest from Bhupalpalle in Warrangal District. But,due to Stiff opposition from BJP Cadre who were Enthused after Modi Ji’s Visit here, requested Him to contest from Karimnagar. A Tough Fight on Cards between TRS and BJP.
Bhongir — This Region is A Communist Stronghold and CPI(M) has Nominated The Sitting MP from Nalgonda in The 14th Lok Sabha to contest from this newly carved constituency. However, BJP Candidate from here is Not Strong enough and PRP is Strong in Khammam as well as Nalgonda Districts in The Telangana Region(Bhuvanagiri/Bhongir is in Nalgonda District). Congress, too cant be underestimated here, though The Strong Telangana Sentiment will act against INC
Hyderabad — Main Fight is between The Jehadi asaduddin of MIM and Shiasat Editor Zahid Fielded as TDP Candidate. But,thanks to INC, which is hand in glove with MIM and has given shelter to illegal Bangladeshis and pakisthanis that they are now living as citizens of India holding Indian passport, Rationcards and Voter ID Cards that it is Advantage MIM.
BJP has fielded Satish Aggarwal, A North Indian and has weakened itself in Hyderabad(which now has 70% muslim population, post delimitation). Probably, this was to defeat MIM. PRP Fielded a muslim but she is weak and Congress placed a Hindu to ensure MIM’s victory.
Chevella — Advantage BJP. BJP By Fielding Baddam BalRam Reddy(The One Who usually used to take on owaisi of mim in Hyderabad) has hit Bull’s Eye. The Hindu Dominated Constituencies of Hyderabad(pre-Delimitation) are now Part of Chevella and Baddam BalRam Reddy is Extremely Popular here. congress, by imposing jaipal reddy has recieved ire of the cadre and the party workers are refusing to support the union minister for he was imposed against the local cadres wishes by the high command.Mana Party in Alliance with PRP is contesting here, and He will be the primary Rival of BJP’S Baddam Balram Reddy. TDP has fielded former BJP MP from Mahbubnagar, A P Jitender Reddy, however, he too like jaipal reddy is a non local and though he enjoy’s party cadre’s support, he has been asked to fight from chevella against his wishes(his choice was mahbubnagar but had to sacrifice due to TDP’s Alliance with TRS). him visiting CM ysrimmediately after filing nominations to both chevella and mahbubnagar(as a Rival) has raised many a eyebrows in GA.
Malkajigiri– A Cakewalk for BJP’s Nallu Indrasena Reddy.
Nalgonda — A Tough Fight on Cards Between, BJP,PRP,Congress and GA. Splitting of muslim Vote will give BJP an Edge.
Adilabad– in This Bastion of TRS, this Time there is NO TRS Candidate.
BJP has some base here. but, a close fight on cards.
Andhra Pradesh : In Uttar Andhra which Comprises of Srikakulam, Araku(ST),Vizianagaram,Visakhapatnam and Analkapalle constituencies.In four out of Five(with The Exception of Visakhapatnam), there’s A Stiff Three Way Fight between, INC,GA and PRP. The Advantage is Largely for PRP but again, due to splitting of Anti-Congress Votes, it could be Advantage INC. But, if one sees from The Caste Angle(The Social Front), it’s Advantage TDP(GA) particularly with the colourful Manifesto and the Manifesto being properly taken to the Public by Jr NTR.
In Visakhapatnam, BJP is The C lear Winner. By Chosing Sri D V Subba Rao, The Former Mayor of Visakhapatnam Who Turned Visakhapatnam frm AN Ordinary Town to A Beautiful City and Also Known for His Financial Integrity and Humility is The Most Popular Person in Visakhapatnam. His Services to The City and it’s inhabitants cant be Metioned in words!!!
PRP has fielded a weak candidate while congress has imposed a non local, Union Minister of State for HRD, D.Purandeshwari, D/O NTR Sr. TDP has nominated former MP, MVVS Murthy. He is the main rival for BJP here. Still, it would be A Cakewalk for BJP in Visakhapatnam.
In Konaseema, The Fight is Again A Three Way Contest between PRP,TDP,INC.Advantage PRP, congress can suffer a Rout here.
Greater Rayalaseema — A Congress Wave.
PRP and TDP do have An Effect but limited to certain constituencies.
BJP is A Non Entity in Rayalaseema except for Hindupur Parliamentary Constituency and some in A Few Assembly Seats such as Thumpallapalle,Madanapalle,Kadiri,Hindupur(Assembly segment) and Puttaparthy(probably).
That Aside, in Hindupur Parliamentary Constituency, it’s going to be BJP All The Way. BJP Nominee, K.Naresh,is The Most Beloved Child of Hindupur.
Finally Tally — Hard to Predict. Too Close to Call.
BJP — 5-7
INC —12 -15
GA — 12-15
PRP — 7-10
May 11th, 2009 at 10:33 AM
Devender Goud and chiru are at odds.
It seems prp is now coming to terms with reality that devender Goud is likely to lose Malkajgiri Parliamentary seat BADLY and is also likely to lose Ibrahimpatnam assembly segment!!!!!!!!!
if That is so, prp may end up with NIL in Telangana
May 4th, 2009 at 11:13 AM
Well Raghu, Poll Observers Have Admitted that Secunderabad, Malkajgiri are Sure Seats for BJP and BJP is sitting Pretty well and is Comfortably Ahead in Chevella, Vissakhapatnam, Adilabad.
In Addition;KarimNagar and Nizamabad have to be watched out for.
It seems, D Sreenivas(Andhra Pradesh Congreess CommitteePresident) has made it certain that BJP Would Win Nizamabad(Urban) as he went overboard by saying he would chop off The Hands of Hindus if They blame Terror Activities on Jehadis and would protecrt Jehadis as long as he gets elected.
This was Aired throughout by Local Media(Particularly INews,HMTV,ETV-2 etc) and had Generated Anger against Congress in Already Polarized Telangana.
Hindupur is Another Seat where BJP will Win which Everybody has Not Considered.
May 4th, 2009 at 10:07 AM
RAJ: BJP will at best win 3 LS seats. I’m a BJP supporter too but a realistic one.
May 3rd, 2009 at 8:25 PM
This NDTV report- is only showing the “emerging trends” and it is not even a proper exit poll. In West Bengal- BJP is winning Darjeeling, Alipurduar seats. It may also win Dum Dum- Tapan Sikdar and Krishnanagar. BJP in Tamil Nadu is winning Kanyakumari. Analysis of NDTV is inaccurate.
May 3rd, 2009 at 1:12 PM
NDTV is NEVER DELIVER TRUE VERSION.
There ONLY Aim is to prevent India becoming Strong and Break India to Pieces
May 3rd, 2009 at 1:09 PM
i dont know in what basis are u giving this analysis,plz see the website of ndtv http://elections.ndtv.com/frmopinionpoll3.aspx
May 3rd, 2009 at 12:33 PM
Thank You Manmath
May 3rd, 2009 at 10:24 AM
Yes- I have read your article separately on Tamil Nadu. Nice analysis!
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:36 PM
And Mr. Manamath, for more Discussion on TN, There’s A Separate Topic and We can discuss there
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:35 PM
Manmath, BJP Lost it’s Clout in Coimbatore post ’99.
And Mr. Raghu, even Anti BJP Media have acknowledged that Secunderabad, Malkajgiri,Chevella,Adilabad,Vissakhapatnam would come BJP Way and Karimnagar would also see BJP Flag Flying High.
Hindupur is one constituency, The Very Local Media is pinning on BJP
May 1st, 2009 at 12:16 AM
5-7 for BJP?
I mean, that’s quite surprising – even after factoring your visible BJP bias.
April 30th, 2009 at 7:01 PM
Any chance for BJP in Coimbatore and Nilgiris this time?
April 30th, 2009 at 6:34 PM
Coimbatore? The place of the deadly 1998 bomb blasts- which nearly killed L K Advani- and is very sensitive communally. Any chance for BJP from here?
April 30th, 2009 at 12:36 PM
Dear Manmath, Sarath Kumar is contesting from Tirunelveli it is in Tenkasi that his party could not get a candidate(SC) and decided to support Krishnasway of Puthiya Tamizhagam. However, his party has alliance with MMK, Political outfiit of a TN Based muslim outfit and Hence BJP was reportedly upset. However, I am NOT Sure, if BJP has put up a Candidate in Tenkasi this time.
Regarding Tirunelveli, Yes, Sarath Kumar Will Win from here.
And as far as Tirchy is concerned, very Hard this time.
BJP Won this seat in ’98 and ’99 as R P Kumaramangalam(Ranga as He is known) joined BJP Just before Elections. However, after His Demise, BJP Lost Influence in This Region and His Sister(The Present BJP Candidate),Lalitha Kumaramangalam could NOT Generate Sympathy in The By
Election.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:08 PM
http://www.thehindu.com/2009/04/22/stories/2009042252650300.htm
878 votes- not 978 votes…
April 30th, 2009 at 12:04 PM
You are right. BJP won Trichi- and not Chennai North in 1999. What are the chances in Tirunelveli? This seat was given to Sarath Kumar I think- and he insetad of fielding his candidate- opted to support the TNMMK-and this result in BJP fighting this seat? Is this information correct? I think BJP lost from here by 978 votes in 1999.
April 30th, 2009 at 11:55 AM
BJP won Trichi in 1999? Whats the chance this time in Trichi- from where Lalitha Kumaramangalam is contesting- I think- and Coimbtore?
April 30th, 2009 at 7:19 AM
Awesome news! Read this… The POR prediction is coming true. The DIEnasty is going to get a shock of their life.
According to TimesOfIndia, CON party did bad in Maharastra, Mumbai, Bihar. BJP did better even in UP.
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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Make-or-break-for-BJP-today/articleshow/4465737.cms
NEW DELHI: The third round of polling in 107 Lok Sabha seats on Thursday is a crucial test for BJP which needs to perform well in states where it
is in office to retain the credibility of its challenge.
The round is also crucial for Congress which hopes to makes inroads into the saffron belts, and for the Left which must contain its widely anticipated losses in the first round of polling in West Bengal while hoping for handsome returns for BSP in UP. But with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar, Maharashtra and UP in play, stakes are definitely higher for the BJP.
For the big two on the national scene, Thursday’s polling may go a long way in deciding final tallies. After a patchy second round comprising 141 seats, Congress needs to hold on to seats in Maharashtra, make gains in Mamata Banerjee’s company in West Bengal and dent BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka to improve its 2004 tally of 145. A good showing can give the UPA lead player a shot in the arm, and will enable it to bargain hard in the post-poll powerplay, particularly with regard to its leadership claims.
For BJP, the stakes are higher with 11 seats in Karnataka, 16 in MP and all 26 in Gujarat going to polls. In MP, it must repeat its feat of last year’s Assembly polls to beat back anti-incumbency. In Gujarat, it is depending on saffron strongman Narendra Modi to return a bigger tally, while hoping that caste alliances could help tide over an average performance by the B S Yeddyurappa government.
Of the total 107 seats up for grabs on Thursday, Congress held 24 in 2004 while BJP had won 27. Left Front had won 11 of 14 seats going to polls in West Bengal.
Some of the bigwigs in the fray include Congress chief Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli, BJP leader L K Advani in Gandhinagar, former PM H D Deve Gowda in Hassan and Jaswant Singh in Darjeeling.
The going for BJP in MP is harder this time with local factors affecting some seats, but divisions in Congress could go in its favour. Besides, the saffron party also hopes to tap chief minister Shivraj Chauhan’s emergence as a satrap and the return of rebel leader Uma Bharati to the BJP fold even though she is yet to formally rejoin.
In Gujarat, Narendra Modi has sought to latch on to Supreme Court’s ruling ordering a probe into his role in the 2002 riots, painting himself as a `victim’ to add pungency to the battle. The chief minister has called the SC order as a Congress plot against a Gujarati “son-of-the-soil”, in a repeat of his strategy when he used Congress chief Sonia Gandhi’s “maut ka saudagar (merchant of death)” remark to shape the 2007 assembly polls.
This time, he has set the bar higher for himself with his big win in the 2007 assembly polls. By fielding new faces, Modi has tried to limit the wages of incumbency, while an outreach to new caste groups has been attempted in order to lessen dependence on BJP’s traditional base.
Congress had won 12 seats in 2004 and would like to probe BJP’s weaknesses in the tribal belt and encash any division of saffron votes due to a front of BJP rebels contesting some seats.
In Karnataka, the third round includes Hassan, a Deve Gowda stronghold, and coastal belt of Mangalore which was hit by communal violence against churches and the infamous pub attack, both the handiwork of Ram Sene, a Hindutva group. BJP feels it will gain in Dakshina Kannada and Mysore and wrest Shimoga where chief minister Yeddyurappa’s son Raghvendra takes on former CM S Bangarappa.
In Maharashtra, it is mainly the six seats in Mumbai and adjoining urban and semi-urban seats of Kalyan, Thane, Bhiwandi and Palghar that will go to polls. Congress appears to have under-performed in the 25 seats in the second round and the task is tougher now. In Mumbai, it will face both incumbency at central and state levels in terms of issues like 26/11 and civic factors. The party had swept all but two of the seats in the Mumbai-Thane stretch. Indications suggest that Shiv Sena-BJP may be closing in this time.
NCP boss Sharad Pawar’s last minute effort to mend fences with Congress, even putting his prime ministerial claims in the background, seem to indicate the alliance is not doing as well as it had hoped. BSP has been steadily eating into Congress’s vote share. Though a bigger factor in Vidarbha, BSP has a presence in the third round seats as well.
In West Bengal, the Left faces the combined Congress-Trinamool Congress with the comrades holding eight of the 14 seats going to polls. Left is facing a fight on seats like Purulia and Bankura with a rejuvenated opposition fancying its chances on the strenth of resentment over land acquisition, Left Front’s poor score sheet and alienation of minorities from it. CPM veterans like eight-time MP Basudev Acharya are in the fray while ailing Congress leader Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi’s wife Deepa is contesting from Raiganj.
In the 11 seats that go to polls in Bihar, JD(U)-BJP seems confident about eight while there could be tough contests in constituencies like Kishanganj, Banka and Purnia. JD(U) rebel Digvijay Singh has gained some upper caste sympathy in Banka and could damage the ruling combine while NDA is looking for wins in Madhepura, Supaul and Bhagalpur. NDA is looking to benefit from Congress dipping into Muslim votes at the expense of the RJD-LJP combine.
In UP, 15 seats in the central part of the state will be going polls and Congress and BJP both hope to pick up a few seats. The main contenders remain BSP and SP, but going by trends reported by parties and analysts so far, the contests have been far from bi-polar in quite a few seats. It is certainly most crucial for SP which risked Muslim alienation by partnering BJP rebel Kalyan Singh chiefly for grabbing a lead here. Both BSP and BJP will still look forward to turning in its best performances in the next two phases which will cover western UP and north-west parts of the state.
April 30th, 2009 at 6:43 AM
Manmath, in ’99 BJP Won in Coimbatore, Nagercoil(Now Kanniyakumari constituency),Tiruchirapalli and Nilgiris.
Thirunavukarasar(Then Known as Thirunavukarasu) won as
MGR-AIADMK Candidate from Pudukottai and Later Merged The Party with BJP
This time around, BJP is For Sure to Win Kanniyakumari and going by Campaigning and The Following He has, Thirunavukarasar is likely to Wrest Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency.
South Chennai is An Elite Constituency and if Brahmins who constitute 22% of This Constituency if come out and Vote scrothcing The Hot Sun, Ila Ganesan is Certain to Win in South Chennai
April 30th, 2009 at 6:39 AM
Congrats Chakresh Bhai for getting Noticed!!!!!