by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 27, 2009Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
Chhattisgarh is not a big state in status or number of seats, still the prestige issue between both front runner national parties. The reason is that in this era of coalition, chhattisgarh is one of those states, which are still virgin from the effect of regional parties. BJP and INC are in head on fight. Though lately BSP has made its presence felt, but it is just a small spoil sport for INC, can not win any seat.
Since 2004, tribal people shifted their loyalty towards BJP and deserted INC. It has been a regular feature since than for BJP to win by huge margin in this state. After defying the anti-incumbacy in recent assembly election, morale of BJP is at very high point. It is most probable that it will be able to repeat landslide of 2004 again.
Sarguja, Raigarh, Kanker, Bastar are 4 ST seats of state. BJP is most likely to clean sweep these seats due to open support of tribals to party and Salwa Judoom movement. BJP won these seats with large margin in 2004 and won 23 out of 29 assembly seats in 2009 election. This is a clear indicator of flow of wind.
Janjgir, the lone SC seat is a tough call, as both candidates are new and factor of BSP might play an important role. As much BSP grow stronger, chances of BJP winning this seat will increase.
Karuna Shukla won against Charandas Mahant from janjgir seat in last election. Both of them are candidate from Korba this time. Margin last time was not very big, so expect a close fight. But inclusion of some tribal areas in this constituency gives BJP an edge.
Rajnandagaon is also very interesting scene. As Devvrat Singh of congress, who grabbed the seat from BJP in 2007 re-election is candidate again. It is also area of CM Raman Singh. Very good performance of BJP in 2009 election is indicator of BJP winning its turf back.
Durg is seat where BJP has not given ticket to sitting MP, so a close fight is possible.
Raipur is bastion of BJP, with Ramesh Bais as BJP MP. This is very unlikely to see change in near foreseeable future about choice of people.
Bilaspur is witnessing a close fight between wife of Ajit Jogi and Dilip Singh Judeo. Both are towering leaders and little mistake on one’s part can change the result. Though as of now BJP has an edge.
The only seat that INC won in 2004 is Mahasamund, still looking like going with congress. But new candidate is no Ajit Jogi, so congress should not consider this one as safe seat.
So, as conclusion we can see that Congress can not pin-point even one seat as its sure shot. If congress gets a seat or two in Chhattisgarh, it will not be because of its hardwork or will of public, but due to stupidity of BJP.
Possible result:
Congress: 1
BJP: 10
Next in this series will be curious case of Orissa, which was not so curious just a few days ago. 
April 23rd, 2009 at 12:33 AM
Dear Raj,
If you call Sonia gandhi an Italian because she was born in Italy, then pls remember the LK Advani was born in Karachi, Pakistan. Hence, your logic is flawed.
If anyone, Sonia Gandhi or any other person, leaves their country and religion and comes to accept India as their country, then we should respect that wish and accept them. Countries and religions are based on philosophies of acceptance and should not be biased on ethnicity and origins. As hindus, we should be willing to accept people who wilfully choose to follow our culture.
April 15th, 2009 at 1:21 PM
Advani Ji and Modi Bhai are Terror to Terrorists.
Had Godhra Carnage NOT Taken Place in Retaliation, Gujarat would have become another Kashmir for Hindus. We Hindus will NOT Keep Quite under Sickularism.
Hum Bhi Eint Ka Jawaab Pathar Se Denge.
Hum Jehadiyon ko Use Bhaasha mein Jawaab Denge jo tum log samajhte ho
April 15th, 2009 at 1:19 PM
Yes, We WILL Vote for Sri Lal Krish Advani and NOT for Italian sonia maino who killed Massacred Thousands of Kashmiri Pundits. Who celebtrated Every Killing of Hindus.
Who Protected every Jehadi Terrorist.
We Will Have More Modi’s as ONLY A Modui can threaten you coward Jehadis.
Jehadis and Evangelists are Today Threatened because of BJP.
congress christians are killing Hindus and The Securityy Forces.
BJP Stands for All Indians Who Put India Above Religion.
We Will Implement Uniform Civil Code Soon.
And for Khans and Afxal Guru’s and Qasab’s We Will Be A Terror.
Your Jehadi Desert Cult has NO Future in India.
And Khan, go BACK o your Porkisthan if You CANT Accept Constitution of India.
what would have sonia maino did if IC-814 was Kidnapped under congress rule.
oh, yeah, she would have asked all Hindus to be Killed on Board and then she would have released the terrorists too.
BJP And NDA Saved The Lives of 180 Odd Citizens of India, while your congress sided with Jehadis.
you are A Shame to India, you have NO Right to Live.
go to back to your Desert, saudi Arabia or else We will Kick you till kaaba
April 6th, 2009 at 12:28 PM
Hi this is a great site,
I have done my analysis and put the statewise prediction, it would be great if you can cross verify with your assesments.
http://offstumped.wordpress.com/guest-post-an-election-2009-projection
March 28th, 2009 at 5:43 PM
I alway Wanted to Say , BJP Will Win 10 Seats in Chattisgarh. But, didnt say so, as People would Accuse me of being Biased towards BJP
March 28th, 2009 at 4:57 PM
ram ram chakresh bhaiya…kya haal chaal??
as always would love to you read and comment on your pre poll analysis..looking forward to it eagerly!![:)]
March 28th, 2009 at 8:26 AM
@future mantra
very good site indeed, how do you collect all those news items, do you feed it from other sources or do you have your own correspondents?
March 27th, 2009 at 11:57 PM
Nice blog. Hey! need your views on http://www.indianewsupdates.com