by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 20, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
After looking at the large picture, it looks like the repeat of 1998 election. NDA is not quiet there. UPA+ Left cannot form the government. Mayawati holds the key unless anything major happens in next 12 months. The final tally is
BJP: 179
BJP+: 65 (counting INLD and AIDMK as part of NDA)
This gives total of NDA: 244, around 30 seats short of majority
INC: 116
INC+: 33
This gives total of UPA: 149, a big loss from last time.
Left: 39, again losers and no more kingmakers.
BSP: 35, new kingmaker
SP-20, TDP-18, TMC-10, Others-27, these are parties to watch, they can take any side.
Now let us discuss the after poll possibilities, if this analysis comes true.
- NDA forms government with the help of BSP. Then TDP, TMC and some other will also support it. But government will be very fragile.
- NDA forms government with the help of TDP, TMC and some others. TDP is not likely to take part in government, but they can reach agreement as last time. This will be a bad scenario for Mayawati.
- A third front forms a government. Some NDA, UPA allies can ditch BJP, Congress respectively and try to grab a lion’s share in new khichdi government. Congress can support this government from outside to keep BJP out. In this scenario Mayawati has a good chance to realize her PM dream. But then we should expect next election around the corner.
- There is a slight possibility that UPA can form government with the help of Left, SP, TMC and others. But then they will need outside support of BSP. Which is less likely as BSP and SP cannot be part of same government.
What BJP need to do:
- Find new allies aka AIDMK, INLD, AGP, PMK, MDMK, TMC
- Do not loose current allies aka SS, JDU
- Do well in state election in 2008
- Run strong candidates in UP and try to grab above 20 seats
- Form a coalition with BSP (?)
- Do not let JDS congress ally
- Sweep in its strongholds aka Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh
What Congress need to do:
- Ally with JDS in Karnataka
- Consolidate Tamilnadu alliance and take back PMK, MDMK with DMK
- Form alliance with TMC in Bengal and consolidate with NCP in Maharashtra
- Ally with Mulayam in UP
What Left need to do:
They do not have anything to do. They cannot regain their ground anyhow this time.
What BSP need to do:
Try to win more and more seats in UP. If they can win above 45, then there is a huge possibility that Maya madam will be new kingmaker or queen herself.
This way our analysis for next election is complete. Visit back for more exciting stuff and subscribe to Promise of Reason below.
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
May 9th, 2009 at 2:45 AM
Govey – The Print media initially said NDA is finished. Last year they said UPA is 350 seats. When the polls started, thet gave BJP 125+ and NDA 175. UPS ranged from 250+. Suddenly after the first 2 phases, the news was coming out that CON party is in trouble and NDA, Third Front are doing. It was confirmed in third phase. After third phase, the print media acknowledged but they kept their rigging intact. They kept repeating the numbers with 5 less for UPA and 5 more for NDA. I hope results will show how the Print media and TV are playing a game to fix the elections.
May 9th, 2009 at 1:01 AM
nda is dominating opinion polls in cyber media and upa in print as well as tv…………..
cnt trust any opinion or prediction. nda more or less dominates only the opinion polls.
April 29th, 2009 at 3:46 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
April 28th, 2009 at 7:49 AM
Yes Ibadu, baseless because we arent licking antonio maino and raul vinci’s feet. right?
April 27th, 2009 at 10:34 PM
baseless prediction
April 25th, 2009 at 6:42 PM
Hi Raj,
I have told many times, Congress is paying huge money to TV channels. Are you agree or not.
April 25th, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Because We arent Licking The Feet of white trash Evil KKK agents sonia maino and her illegitimate faggot born to ottawio quattrochi,raul vinci right?
April 25th, 2009 at 10:34 AM
poor survey yar……………
April 13th, 2009 at 10:16 AM
When the elction are at the door, once again political parties started saying we are secular and UPA major agenda is to keep away the secular forces. But do these secular parties are really secular …? No , they just want muslim votes so they want to use this term.See the condition in bihar congress formed UPA with alaince with Lalu, Paswan, Mulayam in centre and after seat sharing problems Sonia gandhi stated Bihar backwardness is due to Lalu. I pray all of you to reject them. We are definetely in the “horns of Dilemma” whome to choose be it any state.But I request LK Advani must be given charge of PM this time. So please give him more hands. I am also a voter not any party men but I have decided.
March 27th, 2009 at 2:49 AM
ok fellas!
the fun begins now, pre-poll prediction for general election. One state a day, detailed analysis. First one to go will be God’s own country – Kerala. All of you are invited to join the discussion there. cheers!
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-prediction-2009/
March 26th, 2009 at 11:56 AM
This is one of the good blog i read in the recent past
http://elections.ndtv.com/blogdetail.aspx
Being Jaitely
March 26th, 2009 at 11:54 AM
This is one of the good blogs i have read in the recent past.
http://elections.ndtv.com/blogdetail.aspx?blogid=1005
March 26th, 2009 at 11:43 AM
This is one of the best blogs i have ever read
http://elections.ndtv.com/blogdetail.aspx?blogid=1005
March 26th, 2009 at 10:37 AM
Hi Jacob ,
Behanji is toilet pot.
March 26th, 2009 at 9:35 AM
The last thing I want to see is our “behanji” being the queen.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:07 AM
I am Glad BJP has Questioned Congress Commission oops, Election Commission’s motive. EC is NOT to decide who contests and who doesnt.
EC has Naveen Chawla A Christian and Qureshi a Muslim appointed by italian maino. Obviously, They will HATE Hindus.
March 17th, 2009 at 4:41 PM
Nope. Varun has simply Revived Hindutva Wave in UP. Advantage BJP
March 17th, 2009 at 4:25 PM
That Bloody Varun Gandhi has managed to do in 10 minutes what Congress and communists could not do in 5 years.
In mere 5 minutes, and I mean Yes 5 minutes he has managed to destroy BJP.
Mark my words, if his speech will be forgotten do not worry it will not. This is only the beginning.
Guess he has lived upto his fathers expectation.
February 16th, 2009 at 10:27 PM
The effects of Delimitation,
http://www.livemint.com/2008/06/09232500/New-boundaries-for-Indian-poli.html?d=1
This lok sabha elections will also see the effect of Delimitation. Karanataka was first state to have elections after Delimitation, where seats in urban constituencies in Bangalore city increased from 16 to 28 and BJP ended up willing 17 of those, which was key to forming first ever BJP govt in a southern state.
Speaking of macro level , the higher urban % of seats , closer BJP gets to magic no. of 274 .
This time, urban seats have increased from 70 (2004) to 100. I guess good portion of that will go to BJP. I also think if BJP can exceed 25% share of total vote polled, it will form Govt.
Does any body have any statistics on TV penetration in India, coz I feel very soon that will become the most critical medium of communications and politics.
February 14th, 2009 at 10:04 AM
Good Observation AK!!!