- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
After looking at the large picture, it looks like the repeat of 1998 election. NDA is not quiet there. UPA+ Left cannot form the government. Mayawati holds the key unless anything major happens in next 12 months. The final tally is
BJP: 179
BJP+: 65 (counting INLD and AIDMK as part of NDA)
This gives total of NDA: 244, around 30 seats short of majority
INC: 116
INC+: 33
This gives total of UPA: 149, a big loss from last time.
Left: 39, again losers and no more kingmakers.
BSP: 35, new kingmaker
SP-20, TDP-18, TMC-10, Others-27, these are parties to watch, they can take any side.
Now let us discuss the after poll possibilities, if this analysis comes true.
- NDA forms government with the help of BSP. Then TDP, TMC and some other will also support it. But government will be very fragile.
- NDA forms government with the help of TDP, TMC and some others. TDP is not likely to take part in government, but they can reach agreement as last time. This will be a bad scenario for Mayawati.
- A third front forms a government. Some NDA, UPA allies can ditch BJP, Congress respectively and try to grab a lion’s share in new khichdi government. Congress can support this government from outside to keep BJP out. In this scenario Mayawati has a good chance to realize her PM dream. But then we should expect next election around the corner.
- There is a slight possibility that UPA can form government with the help of Left, SP, TMC and others. But then they will need outside support of BSP. Which is less likely as BSP and SP cannot be part of same government.
What BJP need to do:
- Find new allies aka AIDMK, INLD, AGP, PMK, MDMK, TMC
- Do not loose current allies aka SS, JDU
- Do well in state election in 2008
- Run strong candidates in UP and try to grab above 20 seats
- Form a coalition with BSP (?)
- Do not let JDS congress ally
- Sweep in its strongholds aka Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh
What Congress need to do:
- Ally with JDS in Karnataka
- Consolidate Tamilnadu alliance and take back PMK, MDMK with DMK
- Form alliance with TMC in Bengal and consolidate with NCP in Maharashtra
- Ally with Mulayam in UP
What Left need to do:
They do not have anything to do. They cannot regain their ground anyhow this time.
What BSP need to do:
Try to win more and more seats in UP. If they can win above 45, then there is a huge possibility that Maya madam will be new kingmaker or queen herself.
This way our analysis for next election is complete. Visit back for more exciting stuff and subscribe to Promise of Reason below.
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
Take a look at these related posts:
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
June 21, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Hi Chakresh,
Saw the link to your blog on offstumped. Good work buddy. A couple of points here:
1. The gujjar problem is now solved, so i expect BJP to win 3 more seats in Rajasthan.
2. In Madhya Pradesh, I have done good analysis, 90% BJP will win 24 seats.
3. Bihar also The NDA can touch 30 seats.
Overall I feel the BJP+NDA will hit around 20-30 seats more than your prediction which will pull them upto 272.
June 22, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Hi Mishraji,
Excellent analysis …
If this government is able to sustain till next year .. I guess something major is going to happen which is .. inflation, its going over the control of UPA government and they can’t hold it till a year It will make NDA a stronger candidate for government.
However UPA is working on it and trying for an early election on the name of 123 agreement (and of course to get it’s credit which they always do) … let’s see what happens..
June 23, 2008 at 11:11 AM
Very good analysis of the likely scenario after the elections. The only joker in the pack is Mayawti who may surprise everyone if she plays her cards really well. Then, she may not be just ‘king maker’ but the Queen itself in South Block.
And yes Chakresh. Can you not do better than becoming one more ‘status quo-ist’ by joining the bureaucracy? Think about it.
June 23, 2008 at 11:55 PM
@murli
May be your prediction come true for Bihar, but I am not very sure about Rajasthan and MP. I do not think that BJP has any better chance than I already predicted. Can we see your analysis on MP please.
Thanx.
@ashwani
Nuke deal is a big issue in New Delhi, but believe me in the streets of country, it is not any polarizing factor for voters.
@vinod sharma
joining the bureaucracy will not necessarily make me a status quo-ist, unless I myself want to be. Fresh blood and thoughts are required in bureaucracy as much as in politics for betterment of country. I do not trust anyone else more than myself. for this mission
June 24, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Hey Chakresh
Here is a spreadsheet for Rajasthan, I have 19 seats analysed there, the other 6 are closely fought and so in my guess 50-50 for the other 6. So ideally BJP will get a min of 19 in my opinion. Maybe you are right.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm31KJg1AcEl_VQ
Here is the sheet for MP
I have not made a number column for 2009, but you can add it. I did analysis on 23 of the 29 and I would give BJP 20 and INC 3. The other 6 anybody’s guess.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm33S3SqV5ukJWQ
July 13, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Dear Chakresh,
If congress win the Trust vote. Then thay have 8 months for repair works.
Tob frank thay have good performance unitl last 3 1/2 years and hit back by the inflation. They have brought the inflation from double figure to 7% 4 months before. So if they have 8 months inflation will be back to single figure.
The UPA ministers team are the best. Even There is no replacment for many minsters.
INFLATION IS NOT A INDIAN ISSUE, IT IS GLOBAL ISSUE FACED BY ALL COUNTRIES. out of that India’s inflation is less
Thinking people will vote for UPA
July 17, 2008 at 7:06 PM
Santosh,
As there are some hardcore fans of BJP you seem to be a big fan of congress from the statement you made about ministers. Ministers in UPA are the most lucklustre and let things happen type of people. India would have been same even if these people didn’t exist.Bcuz they dont have an iota of idea of the impact of decisions that Bureaucrats rub on them. NDA had far better adminstration. Atleat top brass is clean on all counts. UPA is bunch of jokers out there to make a quick money. If india votes these people back to power then the next 50 years would be dark age for india. may god save india.
July 31, 2008 at 4:23 AM
I am wondering if the many bombings that have happened in so many states will have any impact in the voters’ mind. Aren’t people concerned about their safety? Do they not blame UPA for being cool to the terrorists? I would really appreciate input as I wish to know if the Indian psyche is still numb with ‘take the beating’ philosophy of Gandhi. Either that or that people don’t give a damn about who rules and don’t care if the elected MPs take money and switch loyalty.
September 8, 2008 at 1:12 AM
As of Tamil nadu side if BJP alys with AIADMK (jeya) then we will expect 20 seats to bjp ally other wise bjp will not get any seats and also congress ally will not get more than 18 seats this time. If jeya allys with left parties like CPM and CPI they are the most winners in this state.as of my thoughts
September 30, 2008 at 12:44 AM
Looking the way innocent people (persons belonginging to majority comunity,that is Hindus) are being killed by terrorist (belonging to minority community) and the way UPA is backing them (perpetrators,terrorists…like Afzal guru etc..soharabuddine etc..).Look at the way Senior leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and others are Giving Statements in Favour of SIMI ( the main accused,even by courts ,police,intelleigence etc). The way Prime Minister lose sleep when a suspect/accused is arrested in Australia for terrorist activities just because he belongs to minority community and keep mum when hundreds of majority community people,children,women are being killed in blasts.They way senior s in Congress .sonia Rahul Gandhi Priyanka Gandhi’s Silent and no action behaviour.its disastrous for India.
Terrorist killing Majority community do not see that you are SC or ST or General.They just see that you do not belong to their faith.
If the present Govt regains power..then even God Can’t save people belonging to majority community.Remeber Unity is strength.Terrorism can not grow without tacit and active support by the minority community.where are the minority community intelligentia like Javed Akhthar,Saban Azmi,Ammir Khan etc..are the people belonging to maority community being killed are not humans..or the terrorist belong to minority community
I think people must think about this seriously.
even main media is not showing the news in right perspective
if there is hung parliament ..or present lot again comes in power…then may situation might be even worse
October 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM
god only saves india if congress regains power.
i donot know whether people of india are mad for having voting for a party like congress represented by dirty bunch of jokers for more than 50 years.
even they are projecting a fool like rahul gandhi for prime ministership?
then what about advani who is serving the nation for more than 50 years
October 5, 2008 at 11:54 PM
Yeah right
And regarding Rahul i recently learned a thing about him. He attended Harvard to pursue BA in politics spending crores of rupees (With all his security, personal staff, jetting India and back etc etc) and couldn’t complete so moved to some B grade college in Tampa and completed or bought his degree. I think it could be called the costliest BA degree ever acquired in India which you could get with better percentage if you enroll in distance some university which is recognized by DEC now, only for less than 10,000 rupees or 250 dollars! If rahul becomes PM not even god can save India!!! may god bless India!.
October 6, 2008 at 9:30 PM
Result is not correct .andra pradesh is TDP -18 SEATS win why
November 9, 2008 at 4:50 PM
Yes even i do agree that currently, the fate of India is lying in the hands of buch of congress fools. and even in Andhra Pradesh, people getting divided on caste basis, are polarizing either for TDP Chandrababu naidu (Kamma Caste) or Y S Rajashekar Reddy (Reddy caste). I request all of you not to vote on caste basis but to vote on religious grounds to protect our country from mellitents and anti nationals. Dear voters of Andhra Pradesh please keep in mind that YSR is not a Reddy, he is a Christian and an agent to Sonia Gandhi. His is is grabbing the endowment lands and bringing down the temple structures in these places. So i request you to think twice before voting YSR, the current cheif minister on caste basis.
November 9, 2008 at 11:58 PM
I think time is close to congress to step down from center,Better i request voters to give chance to BJP ,so that we can expect and hope for change In better rulling ,Ex Obama defeated McCain where Americans chose for a change………………
November 16, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Congress is doing a systematic campaign to arrest all the Sangh leaders before 2009 elections who do campaigning for BJP…..
If all RSS/Bajrang dal/VHP party members are arrested before 2009 elections then Congress party will sweep the elections
November 16, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Congress is doing a systematic campaign to arrest all the Sangh leaders before 2009 elections who do campaigning for BJP…..
If all RSS/Bajrang dal/VHP party members are arrested before 2009 elections then Congress party will sweep the elections
November 16, 2008 at 1:44 PM
I request the people of TAMIL NADU, ANDHRA PRADESH, ASSAM TO NOT TO VOTE FOR THE EVIL ANTI INDIA , ANTI HINDU, ANTI NATIONALISM CONGRESS PARTY
November 19, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Hai,
I don’t think congress will do better in most of the states like Tamilnadu, Kerala, Andhrapradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttarpradesh.
BJP will not do well in the states like Kerala, Tamilnadu, Andhra, Uttarpradesh and Bengal. The alliances that BJP will form will be there with BJP only if they hold the key to form the next government.
It is better for Jayalalitha, if she joins with Left, MDMK and PMK. She will be able to make a sweeping alliance.
November 19, 2008 at 10:41 PM
The other parties which are going to be powerful during this elections are going to be CPI and its alliance in Kerala and Bengal( even though they are likely to loose some ground), Telugudesam in Andhra, ADMK in Tamilnadu, Mayawat and Mulayam in UP, Lalu and Nitish in Bihar, Mamta in Bengal.
November 26, 2008 at 9:04 PM
i pray that the congress wins , we need a secular party unlike the hindutva BJP or the corrupt BSP , i hope the congress leaders get a majority
November 27, 2008 at 11:22 AM
congress will be wiped out in general elections. mark my words , congress tally will be in two digits & sonia & rahul will find it difficult to win their own seats
November 27, 2008 at 9:17 PM
manmohan singh should resign after this terrorist attack.
the so called secularists ( MMS, sonia, rahul, laloo, mulalyam ) should come on tv & say that attack on taj hotel was the work of rss.
in india secularism means appeasement of muslims. when sikhs are killed by congress in delhi then only a big tree has fallen.
but when muslims are killed in gujrat than world has fallen.these pseudo secularists. only vote bank politics .
November 28, 2008 at 10:10 PM
congress is the most anti national party of india. name of congress should be MUSLIM CONGRESS. even before partition congress never fought for freedom. gandhi & nehru were actually agents of english people.
Bhagat singh & subhash bose were actually freedom fighters. they died for the country while gandhi & nehru enjoyed the power. Gandhi & nehru were actually traitors
December 12, 2008 at 5:19 PM
Great post!http://www.skin-treatment-lamictal.blogspot.com/
December 17, 2008 at 2:11 AM
1 ttl sts
2 “Cong camp
2 “BJP camp
4 “3RD
5 others
1 ANDHRA PRADESH 42 8 6 26 2
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH 2 1 1 0 0
3 ASSAM 14 8 4 2 0
4 BIHAR 40 16 16 8 0
5 JHARKHAND 14 6 6 1 1
6 GOA 2 1 1 0 0
7 GUJARAT 26 6 20 0 0
8 HARYANA 10 4 6 0 0
9 HIMACHAL PRADESH 4 1 3 0 0
10 JAMMU & KASHMIR 6 3 0 0 3
11 KARNATAKA 28 8 12 8 0
12 KERALA 20 8 0 12 0
13 MADHYA PRADESH 29 10 18 0 1
14 CHHATTISGARH 11 4 6 1 0
15 MAHARASHTRA 48 22 24 0 2
16 MANIPUR 2 1 1 0 0
17 MEGHALAYA 2 2 0 0 0
18 MIZORAM 1 1 0 0 0
19 NAGALAND 1 1 0 0 0
20 ORISSA 21 8 12 0 1
21 PUNJAB 13 5 8 0 0
22 RAJASTHAN 25 15 10 0 0
23 SIKKIM 1 1 0 0 0
24 TAMIL NADU 39 12 0 24 3
25 TRIPURA 2 0 0 2 0
26 UTTAR PRADESH 80 12 8 58 2
37 UTTARAKHAND 5 1 1 3 0
28 WEST BENGAL 42 6 6 30 0
29 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS 1 1 0 0 0
30 CHANDIGARH 1 0 1 0 0
31 DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI 1 0 1 0 0
32 DAMAN & DIU 1 0 1 0 0
33 DELHI 7 4 3 0 0
34 LAKSHADWEEP 1 1 0 0 0
35 PONDICHERRY 1 1 0 0 0
TOTAL 543 178 175 175 15
December 18, 2008 at 4:31 PM
I vote for BJP only i want shining INDIA back in face of BJP(Bhartiya janta party)
December 23, 2008 at 7:16 PM
http://synthol.blogspot.com/
December 31, 2008 at 2:55 PM
I pray the god for win of BJP. I think L K ADVANI may become powerful prime minister for india and he will change the face of India.
It is not possible by lazy and useless congress leaders.
we save our religion(HINDU) by only vote to BJP.
January 13, 2009 at 6:41 PM
ttl sts
2 “Cong camp
2 “BJP camp
4 “3RD
5 others
1 ANDHRA PRADESH 42 21,1,12,8(TRS+PR+)
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH 2 1 1 0 0
3 ASSAM 14 4 8 0 1
4 BIHAR 40 14 24 0 2
5 JHARKHAND 14 4 9 0 1
6 GOA 2 1 1 0 0
7 GUJARAT 26 4 22 0 0
8 HARYANA 10 4 3 3 0
9 HIMACHAL PRADESH 4 1 3 0 0
10 JAMMU & KASHMIR 6 3 0 0 3
11 KARNATAKA 28 6 20 2 0
12 KERALA 20 8 0 12 0
13 MADHYA PRADESH 29 8 20 0 1
14 CHHATTISGARH 11 3 11, 0,0
15 MAHARASHTRA 48 18 29, 1
16 MANIPUR 2 1 1 0 0
17 MEGHALAYA 2 2 0 0 0
18 MIZORAM 1 1 0 0 0
19 NAGALAND 1 1 0 0 0
20 ORISSA 21 8 12 0 1
21 PUNJAB 13 7 6 0 0
22 RAJASTHAN 25 17 8 0 0
23 SIKKIM 1 1 0 0 0
24 TAMIL NADU 39 26 0 14 0
25 TRIPURA 2 0 0 2 0
26 UTTAR PRADESH 80 8 8 22 42
37 UTTARAKHAND 5 1 3 0 1
28 WEST BENGAL 42 4 13 25 0
29 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS 1 1 0 0 0
30 CHANDIGARH 1 1 1 0 0
31 DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI 1 ,0 ,0 0
32 DAMAN & DIU 1 00 0
33 DELHI 7 5 2 0 0
34 LAKSHADWEEP 1 1 0 0 0
35 PONDICHERRY 1 1 0 0 0
TOTAL 543 181 178
January 14, 2009 at 6:33 PM
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January 20, 2009 at 6:36 PM
BJP March On………..LK Advani March On……..people of India are with you and we desperately want to see you as our PM to SAVE INDIA. No Kalyan Singh no Vairosingh can do any damage when the people of India are with you.
January 27, 2009 at 12:10 PM
I think BJP can not form a Govt. until it do well in Big States Like UP , TN, WB , AP and Maharastra. These States has almost 250 seats and BJP + likely to win 25 -30 seats in these states. So BJP need to work on these states and find allies if it wants to return to power. I think BJP + will win about 200 seats and i predict a hung assembly with key in mayawati , chandrababu and jaya ,s hands.
January 27, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Nandan, This time NDA Would do well in UP and Mharashtra. Also, NDA is about to perform well or sweep in Punjab,Haryana,Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, MP, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan(remember, in the state elections INC Won in Rajasthan by default, because of InFighting in BJP. infact, congress didnt cross the half way mark, yet The media and congress lobby is projecting it as a decisive mandate for sonai maino). In Delhi, BJP lost because of distributing tickets to wrong candidates and VK Malhotra was not a match to sheila dixit, however, the media is overjoyed that its a victory for congress.
last time, in Gujarat, Maharashtra, WB, Bihar and Jharkhand UPA did very well and sweptin AP ,TN,Haryana. In Addition they also did well in some smaller states like Himachal Pradesh.
Howe ver, this time, in all these states with the exception of AP, congress would face severe setbacks.
In AP too, it wont bw a cakewalk for inc which is ally less this time around.
NDA Can Sweep in Maharasthra, Bihar, Haryana, Jharkhand and perform surprisingly well and surprise all poll pundits in UP.
In Addition, Telangana Factor will help BJP in The T Region of AP.
In TN, With Rajni’s support, BJP can make inroads.
congress would not ev en reach 100 seats in the coming elections.
January 27, 2009 at 5:57 PM
mayawati will recieve a severe drubbing.
In Western UP BSP will come as a cropper.
In Eastern UP the fight will be between BJP and BSP while Central UP would witness a triangular fight between BJP led NDA, INC-SP combine and BSP
The media is giving an overwhelming response to maya and is projecting her like a champion and her BSP as a Major force. but, for sure, the psuedosecular media would have to eatt he humble pie once again post 2009
January 27, 2009 at 11:57 PM
1. In telangana region B.J.P should call Telangana Rath Yatra under leadership of top B.J.P top leader( may Sushma Swaraj or Advani or Naidu or any other leader) . This activity may give B.J.P min 5-8 seats out of 15 seats in Telagana region.This “Telangana Rath Yatra ” should be in very broad way. All top leaders from all over the India should come with B.J.P workers and stay one day(Yatra may be continue 5 to 1o days)
January 28, 2009 at 2:14 PM
Telangana has 17 seats after delimitation, not just 15.
In Lok Sabha Elections therefore, BJP has a chance in 5-7 seats
January 29, 2009 at 8:35 AM
“There is a slight possibility that UPA can form government with the help of Left, SP, TMC and others. But then they will need outside support of BSP. Which is less likely as BSP and SP cannot be part of same government. ”
It will be suicidal for congress. This type of politics would not work this time( It was good at the time of Indira Gandi, that time opposition was not strong, immediately opposition–B.J.P will get advantage, B.J.P may get more than 75 seats in four states TN,WB,Kerala and AP. Then permanent alliance will be formed in all these states). Immediately election will take place. To avoid immediately election TDP, AIADMK or DMK.
TMC and some small party will support B.J.P. Otherwise in immediate
election will destrou small parties (TRS,TDP,DMK or AIADMK,TRS, BSP will bemajor sufferer because they are not part of any alliance)
January 29, 2009 at 8:45 AM
Hi Raj,
If it is 17 in Telangana then B.J.P should try to get 10/17 without the help of any other other party.
B.J.P should to get 10-A.P 10-TN 10-WestBengal and 5-Kerala.
how
1. Spend big amount of money (5000 cores only for 4 states)
2. Call strong dissident leaders, if they win give them ministry otherwise give them Rajya Sabha and tell them future is B.J.P and after 5 years B.J.P will have major role in forming gove in all these states.
3. Use film actors and top personality person.
4. Try to create problem for oppositon by putting indepedent candidate because B.J.P is using money.
5. Try to bring yatra, call modi and yedurappa for vikas yatra.
January 29, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Ritesh Ji, You are even more a greater BJP supporter than I am
anyway,I dont go for wishful thinking
in Telangana the seats where BJP is Strong are : Hyderabad, Secunderabad, Chevella, Malkajigiri, KarimNagar,Mehaboobnagar and the other potential winnable seats are : Pedapally, Nizamaabad, Adilabad(Hard), Nalgonda(Less Likely, however, if They field, C Janga Reddy, one of the two Lok Sabha Members of BJP in ’84) they can win this seat as He, C J Reddy is a strong Votary of Telangana
and also BJP should try to make huge InRoads in Warrangal, Zahirabad constituencies and try to win them as well. ModiJi’s presence alone is enough to Polarize votes
In The Coastal Andhra Region, BJP should Not shy away from fielding M Venkiah Naidu in Nellore(which from 2009 is an Open Constituency). In ’99 BJP Won This seat as a reserved constituency and in 2004 too, BJP lost very narrowly(ofcourse, there was BJP-TDP Alliance then), but, a lot has been attributed because of the developmental works carried out by M.Venkiah Naidu when He was a minister in Vaajpayee’s Cabinet.
The Congress candidate is former CM, N Janardhan Reddy who is quite popular among the masses. however, congress votebank this time would be dented by BSP as Nelore has a lotof dalit population as well as by chiru since, nellore hasa huge chiru fans association as well as people from his caste. In addition, the TDP Would consolidate it’s own vote bank.
Hence, BJP Should field M Venkiah Naidu and win the Nellore seat as a Prestige Issue.
Also, The previous MP From Nellore , a dalit should be given a reserved seat in the nellore region and that would do a lo of good to BJP.
Hindupur until yesterday was anbother seat where BJP could have raised hopes but ti seems, TDP is fielding Bala Krishna from Hindupur Assembly segment. This constituency for the past four years is being nurtured by their candidate, Actor Naresh. However, since Hindupur has a large Muslim population, if BJP Can Polarize votes, They can wrest this seat
Hindupur is in Rayalaseema.
Visakhapatnam is one seat where BJP’s chances are real High since Visakhapatnam has a huge Brahmin Population, If one takes into account, Visakhapatnam Urban Population, Brahmins constitute atleast 30 % of total VSKP Population!!!
In Narsapur, where there would be a fierce batle drawn on caste lines, the division of votes can benefit BJP which has announced Actor U V Krishnam Raju as it’s Candidate and His Nephew, a popular and A Very Handsome Hero of today’s telugu film Industry, Prabhas has declared He would campaign for BJP in this constituency.
Samajwadi Party if notches up an alliance with congress is likely to field Jayaprada from here while praja rajyam would field the incumbent MP against whom there is huge anti incumbency
TDP too would eye thios seat. Hence, in a Quadrangular fight, BJP would Win this seat
Vijayawada is another seat BJP Should work on, as they are planning to organize a Vijay Sankalp Yatra here
January 29, 2009 at 3:34 PM
Hi,
I think you have more knowledge than Advani and Rajnath. I am not joking, really i am feeling.
Great analysis. I know top level and basic knowledge of politics.
January 29, 2009 at 3:36 PM
Hi Raj,
B.J.P has announced lot of candidates, do you feel they have announced perfectly.
January 29, 2009 at 3:56 PM
umn…, I cant comment on All
I am not even a member of BJP
January 31, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Hi,
Please prepare 545 pages( 545 parliament seats), like north,east,west,south, general issue.
1.Kanpur
2.Hyderabad
3.
4.
.
.
545. Calicut
For ex: kanpur
1. local issue 2. local slogan 3. local politics 4.Cast equation 5. local influential people
January 31, 2009 at 5:59 PM
Hello, most of us are Either Working Professionals or Students or Research Scholars. We hardly have time for Each Constituency
and elections are held only for 543, 2 are nominated from AngloIndian Community
February 4, 2009 at 8:59 PM
1 ttl sts
2 “Cong camp
2 “BJP camp
4 “3RD
5 others
1 ANDHRA PRADESH 42 8 6 26 2
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH 2 1 1 0 0
3 ASSAM 14 8 4 2 0
4 BIHAR 40 16 16 8 0
5 JHARKHAND 14 6 6 1 1
6 GOA 2 1 1 0 0
7 GUJARAT 26 6 20 0 0
8 HARYANA 10 4 6 0 0
9 HIMACHAL PRADESH 4 1 3 0 0
10 JAMMU & KASHMIR 6 3 0 0 3
11 KARNATAKA 28 6 12 10 0
12 KERALA 20 6 0 14 0
13 MADHYA PRADESH 29 10 18 0 1
14 CHHATTISGARH 11 4 6 1 0
15 MAHARASHTRA 48 22 23 1 2
16 MANIPUR 2 1 1 0 0
17 MEGHALAYA 2 2 0 0 0
18 MIZORAM 1 1 0 0 0
19 NAGALAND 1 1 0 0 0
20 ORISSA 21 8 12 0 1
21 PUNJAB 13 5 8 0 0
22 RAJASTHAN 25 14 10 1 0
23 SIKKIM 1 1 0 0 0
24 TAMIL NADU 39 10 0 26 3
25 TRIPURA 2 0 0 2 0
26 UTTAR PRADESH 80 12 8 58 2
37 UTTARAKHAND 5 1 1 3 0
28 WEST BENGAL 42 4 0 32 6
29 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS 1 1 0 0 0
30 CHANDIGARH 1 0 1 0 0
31 DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI 1 0 1 0 0
32 DAMAN & DIU 1 0 1 0 0
33 DELHI 7 4 3 0 0
34 LAKSHADWEEP 1 1 0 0 0
35 PONDICHERRY 1 1 0 0 0
TOTAL 543 173 175 185 20
February 14, 2009 at 8:25 AM
Some interesting stats from recent elections,
Year 1991 1996 1999 2004
INC Seats 244 140 112 145
Vote % 35.66% 28.80% 28.30% 26.53%
BJP Seats 120 161 182 138
Vote % 20.04% 20.29% 23.75% 22.16%
Vote %age 61.58% 62.06% 63.97% 52.65%
1) Congress is losing vote % with every election.
2) BJP lost in 2004 , coz its supports didn’t come out to vote, see the vote % of 52.65 , this was the first time in the history of India that Cong vote % and there will be NDA Govt. Every vote counts, specially first time voters who are 15% of total voter population.
February 14, 2009 at 8:30 AM
Some interesting stats from recent elections,
Year 1991 1996 1999 2004
INC Seats 244 140 112 145
Vote % 35.66% 28.80% 28.30% 26.53%
BJP Seats 120 161 182 138
Vote % 20.04% 20.29% 23.75% 22.16%
Voter Turnout 61.58% 62.06% 63.97% 52.65%
1) Congress is losing vote % with every election.
2) BJP lost in 2004 , coz its supports didn’t come out to vote, see the turnout of 52.65 , this was the first time in the history of India with less than 60% voter turnout.
So, if voter turnout is over 60% this time,
– BJP vote % will be more than Cong vote %
– NDA Govt.
Every vote counts, specially first time voters who are 15% of total voter population.
February 14, 2009 at 10:04 AM
Good Observation AK!!!
February 16, 2009 at 10:27 PM
The effects of Delimitation,
http://www.livemint.com/2008/06/09232500/New-boundaries-for-Indian-poli.html?d=1
This lok sabha elections will also see the effect of Delimitation. Karanataka was first state to have elections after Delimitation, where seats in urban constituencies in Bangalore city increased from 16 to 28 and BJP ended up willing 17 of those, which was key to forming first ever BJP govt in a southern state.
Speaking of macro level , the higher urban % of seats , closer BJP gets to magic no. of 274 .
This time, urban seats have increased from 70 (2004) to 100. I guess good portion of that will go to BJP. I also think if BJP can exceed 25% share of total vote polled, it will form Govt.
Does any body have any statistics on TV penetration in India, coz I feel very soon that will become the most critical medium of communications and politics.
March 17, 2009 at 4:25 PM
That Bloody Varun Gandhi has managed to do in 10 minutes what Congress and communists could not do in 5 years.
In mere 5 minutes, and I mean Yes 5 minutes he has managed to destroy BJP.
Mark my words, if his speech will be forgotten do not worry it will not. This is only the beginning.
Guess he has lived upto his fathers expectation.
March 17, 2009 at 4:41 PM
Nope. Varun has simply Revived Hindutva Wave in UP. Advantage BJP
March 23, 2009 at 9:07 AM
I am Glad BJP has Questioned Congress Commission oops, Election Commission’s motive. EC is NOT to decide who contests and who doesnt.
EC has Naveen Chawla A Christian and Qureshi a Muslim appointed by italian maino. Obviously, They will HATE Hindus.
March 26, 2009 at 9:35 AM
The last thing I want to see is our “behanji” being the queen.
March 26, 2009 at 10:37 AM
Hi Jacob ,
Behanji is toilet pot.
March 26, 2009 at 11:43 AM
This is one of the best blogs i have ever read
http://elections.ndtv.com/blogdetail.aspx?blogid=1005
March 26, 2009 at 11:54 AM
This is one of the good blogs i have read in the recent past.
http://elections.ndtv.com/blogdetail.aspx?blogid=1005
March 26, 2009 at 11:56 AM
This is one of the good blog i read in the recent past
http://elections.ndtv.com/blogdetail.aspx
Being Jaitely
March 27, 2009 at 2:49 AM
ok fellas!
the fun begins now, pre-poll prediction for general election. One state a day, detailed analysis. First one to go will be God’s own country – Kerala. All of you are invited to join the discussion there. cheers!
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-prediction-2009/
April 13, 2009 at 10:16 AM
When the elction are at the door, once again political parties started saying we are secular and UPA major agenda is to keep away the secular forces. But do these secular parties are really secular …? No , they just want muslim votes so they want to use this term.See the condition in bihar congress formed UPA with alaince with Lalu, Paswan, Mulayam in centre and after seat sharing problems Sonia gandhi stated Bihar backwardness is due to Lalu. I pray all of you to reject them. We are definetely in the “horns of Dilemma” whome to choose be it any state.But I request LK Advani must be given charge of PM this time. So please give him more hands. I am also a voter not any party men but I have decided.
April 25, 2009 at 10:34 AM
poor survey yar……………
April 25, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Because We arent Licking The Feet of white trash Evil KKK agents sonia maino and her illegitimate faggot born to ottawio quattrochi,raul vinci right?
April 25, 2009 at 6:42 PM
Hi Raj,
I have told many times, Congress is paying huge money to TV channels. Are you agree or not.
April 27, 2009 at 10:34 PM
baseless prediction
April 28, 2009 at 7:49 AM
Yes Ibadu, baseless because we arent licking antonio maino and raul vinci’s feet. right?
April 29, 2009 at 3:46 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
May 9, 2009 at 1:01 AM
nda is dominating opinion polls in cyber media and upa in print as well as tv…………..
cnt trust any opinion or prediction. nda more or less dominates only the opinion polls.
May 9, 2009 at 2:45 AM
Govey – The Print media initially said NDA is finished. Last year they said UPA is 350 seats. When the polls started, thet gave BJP 125+ and NDA 175. UPS ranged from 250+. Suddenly after the first 2 phases, the news was coming out that CON party is in trouble and NDA, Third Front are doing. It was confirmed in third phase. After third phase, the print media acknowledged but they kept their rigging intact. They kept repeating the numbers with 5 less for UPA and 5 more for NDA. I hope results will show how the Print media and TV are playing a game to fix the elections.