by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 20, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
After looking at the large picture, it looks like the repeat of 1998 election. NDA is not quiet there. UPA+ Left cannot form the government. Mayawati holds the key unless anything major happens in next 12 months. The final tally is
BJP: 179
BJP+: 65 (counting INLD and AIDMK as part of NDA)
This gives total of NDA: 244, around 30 seats short of majority
INC: 116
INC+: 33
This gives total of UPA: 149, a big loss from last time.
Left: 39, again losers and no more kingmakers.
BSP: 35, new kingmaker
SP-20, TDP-18, TMC-10, Others-27, these are parties to watch, they can take any side.
Now let us discuss the after poll possibilities, if this analysis comes true.
- NDA forms government with the help of BSP. Then TDP, TMC and some other will also support it. But government will be very fragile.
- NDA forms government with the help of TDP, TMC and some others. TDP is not likely to take part in government, but they can reach agreement as last time. This will be a bad scenario for Mayawati.
- A third front forms a government. Some NDA, UPA allies can ditch BJP, Congress respectively and try to grab a lion’s share in new khichdi government. Congress can support this government from outside to keep BJP out. In this scenario Mayawati has a good chance to realize her PM dream. But then we should expect next election around the corner.
- There is a slight possibility that UPA can form government with the help of Left, SP, TMC and others. But then they will need outside support of BSP. Which is less likely as BSP and SP cannot be part of same government.
What BJP need to do:
- Find new allies aka AIDMK, INLD, AGP, PMK, MDMK, TMC
- Do not loose current allies aka SS, JDU
- Do well in state election in 2008
- Run strong candidates in UP and try to grab above 20 seats
- Form a coalition with BSP (?)
- Do not let JDS congress ally
- Sweep in its strongholds aka Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh
What Congress need to do:
- Ally with JDS in Karnataka
- Consolidate Tamilnadu alliance and take back PMK, MDMK with DMK
- Form alliance with TMC in Bengal and consolidate with NCP in Maharashtra
- Ally with Mulayam in UP
What Left need to do:
They do not have anything to do. They cannot regain their ground anyhow this time.
What BSP need to do:
Try to win more and more seats in UP. If they can win above 45, then there is a huge possibility that Maya madam will be new kingmaker or queen herself.
This way our analysis for next election is complete. Visit back for more exciting stuff and subscribe to Promise of Reason below.
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
July 31st, 2008 at 4:23 AM
I am wondering if the many bombings that have happened in so many states will have any impact in the voters’ mind. Aren’t people concerned about their safety? Do they not blame UPA for being cool to the terrorists? I would really appreciate input as I wish to know if the Indian psyche is still numb with ‘take the beating’ philosophy of Gandhi. Either that or that people don’t give a damn about who rules and don’t care if the elected MPs take money and switch loyalty.
July 17th, 2008 at 7:06 PM
Santosh,
As there are some hardcore fans of BJP you seem to be a big fan of congress from the statement you made about ministers. Ministers in UPA are the most lucklustre and let things happen type of people. India would have been same even if these people didn’t exist.Bcuz they dont have an iota of idea of the impact of decisions that Bureaucrats rub on them. NDA had far better adminstration. Atleat top brass is clean on all counts. UPA is bunch of jokers out there to make a quick money. If india votes these people back to power then the next 50 years would be dark age for india. may god save india.
July 13th, 2008 at 5:37 PM
Dear Chakresh,
If congress win the Trust vote. Then thay have 8 months for repair works.
Tob frank thay have good performance unitl last 3 1/2 years and hit back by the inflation. They have brought the inflation from double figure to 7% 4 months before. So if they have 8 months inflation will be back to single figure.
The UPA ministers team are the best. Even There is no replacment for many minsters.
INFLATION IS NOT A INDIAN ISSUE, IT IS GLOBAL ISSUE FACED BY ALL COUNTRIES. out of that India’s inflation is less
Thinking people will vote for UPA
June 24th, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Hey Chakresh
Here is a spreadsheet for Rajasthan, I have 19 seats analysed there, the other 6 are closely fought and so in my guess 50-50 for the other 6. So ideally BJP will get a min of 19 in my opinion. Maybe you are right.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm31KJg1AcEl_VQ
Here is the sheet for MP
I have not made a number column for 2009, but you can add it. I did analysis on 23 of the 29 and I would give BJP 20 and INC 3. The other 6 anybody’s guess.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkMyOUr8Pm33S3SqV5ukJWQ
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:55 PM
@murli
May be your prediction come true for Bihar, but I am not very sure about Rajasthan and MP. I do not think that BJP has any better chance than I already predicted. Can we see your analysis on MP please.
Thanx.
@ashwani
Nuke deal is a big issue in New Delhi, but believe me in the streets of country, it is not any polarizing factor for voters.
@vinod sharma
joining the bureaucracy will not necessarily make me a status quo-ist, unless I myself want to be. Fresh blood and thoughts are required in bureaucracy as much as in politics for betterment of country. I do not trust anyone else more than myself. for this mission
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:11 AM
Very good analysis of the likely scenario after the elections. The only joker in the pack is Mayawti who may surprise everyone if she plays her cards really well. Then, she may not be just ‘king maker’ but the Queen itself in South Block.
And yes Chakresh. Can you not do better than becoming one more ‘status quo-ist’ by joining the bureaucracy? Think about it.
June 22nd, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Hi Mishraji,
Excellent analysis …
If this government is able to sustain till next year .. I guess something major is going to happen which is .. inflation, its going over the control of UPA government and they can’t hold it till a year It will make NDA a stronger candidate for government.
However UPA is working on it and trying for an early election on the name of 123 agreement (and of course to get it’s credit which they always do) … let’s see what happens..
June 21st, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Hi Chakresh,
Saw the link to your blog on offstumped. Good work buddy. A couple of points here:
1. The gujjar problem is now solved, so i expect BJP to win 3 more seats in Rajasthan.
2. In Madhya Pradesh, I have done good analysis, 90% BJP will win 24 seats.
3. Bihar also The NDA can touch 30 seats.
Overall I feel the BJP+NDA will hit around 20-30 seats more than your prediction which will pull them upto 272.