by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 20, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
After looking at the large picture, it looks like the repeat of 1998 election. NDA is not quiet there. UPA+ Left cannot form the government. Mayawati holds the key unless anything major happens in next 12 months. The final tally is
BJP: 179
BJP+: 65 (counting INLD and AIDMK as part of NDA)
This gives total of NDA: 244, around 30 seats short of majority
INC: 116
INC+: 33
This gives total of UPA: 149, a big loss from last time.
Left: 39, again losers and no more kingmakers.
BSP: 35, new kingmaker
SP-20, TDP-18, TMC-10, Others-27, these are parties to watch, they can take any side.
Now let us discuss the after poll possibilities, if this analysis comes true.
- NDA forms government with the help of BSP. Then TDP, TMC and some other will also support it. But government will be very fragile.
- NDA forms government with the help of TDP, TMC and some others. TDP is not likely to take part in government, but they can reach agreement as last time. This will be a bad scenario for Mayawati.
- A third front forms a government. Some NDA, UPA allies can ditch BJP, Congress respectively and try to grab a lion’s share in new khichdi government. Congress can support this government from outside to keep BJP out. In this scenario Mayawati has a good chance to realize her PM dream. But then we should expect next election around the corner.
- There is a slight possibility that UPA can form government with the help of Left, SP, TMC and others. But then they will need outside support of BSP. Which is less likely as BSP and SP cannot be part of same government.
What BJP need to do:
- Find new allies aka AIDMK, INLD, AGP, PMK, MDMK, TMC
- Do not loose current allies aka SS, JDU
- Do well in state election in 2008
- Run strong candidates in UP and try to grab above 20 seats
- Form a coalition with BSP (?)
- Do not let JDS congress ally
- Sweep in its strongholds aka Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh
What Congress need to do:
- Ally with JDS in Karnataka
- Consolidate Tamilnadu alliance and take back PMK, MDMK with DMK
- Form alliance with TMC in Bengal and consolidate with NCP in Maharashtra
- Ally with Mulayam in UP
What Left need to do:
They do not have anything to do. They cannot regain their ground anyhow this time.
What BSP need to do:
Try to win more and more seats in UP. If they can win above 45, then there is a huge possibility that Maya madam will be new kingmaker or queen herself.
This way our analysis for next election is complete. Visit back for more exciting stuff and subscribe to Promise of Reason below.
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
February 14th, 2009 at 8:30 AM
Some interesting stats from recent elections,
Year 1991 1996 1999 2004
INC Seats 244 140 112 145
Vote % 35.66% 28.80% 28.30% 26.53%
BJP Seats 120 161 182 138
Vote % 20.04% 20.29% 23.75% 22.16%
Voter Turnout 61.58% 62.06% 63.97% 52.65%
1) Congress is losing vote % with every election.
2) BJP lost in 2004 , coz its supports didn’t come out to vote, see the turnout of 52.65 , this was the first time in the history of India with less than 60% voter turnout.
So, if voter turnout is over 60% this time,
– BJP vote % will be more than Cong vote %
– NDA Govt.
Every vote counts, specially first time voters who are 15% of total voter population.
February 14th, 2009 at 8:25 AM
Some interesting stats from recent elections,
Year 1991 1996 1999 2004
INC Seats 244 140 112 145
Vote % 35.66% 28.80% 28.30% 26.53%
BJP Seats 120 161 182 138
Vote % 20.04% 20.29% 23.75% 22.16%
Vote %age 61.58% 62.06% 63.97% 52.65%
1) Congress is losing vote % with every election.
2) BJP lost in 2004 , coz its supports didn’t come out to vote, see the vote % of 52.65 , this was the first time in the history of India that Cong vote % and there will be NDA Govt. Every vote counts, specially first time voters who are 15% of total voter population.
February 4th, 2009 at 8:59 PM
1 ttl sts
2 “Cong camp
2 “BJP camp
4 “3RD
5 others
1 ANDHRA PRADESH 42 8 6 26 2
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH 2 1 1 0 0
3 ASSAM 14 8 4 2 0
4 BIHAR 40 16 16 8 0
5 JHARKHAND 14 6 6 1 1
6 GOA 2 1 1 0 0
7 GUJARAT 26 6 20 0 0
8 HARYANA 10 4 6 0 0
9 HIMACHAL PRADESH 4 1 3 0 0
10 JAMMU & KASHMIR 6 3 0 0 3
11 KARNATAKA 28 6 12 10 0
12 KERALA 20 6 0 14 0
13 MADHYA PRADESH 29 10 18 0 1
14 CHHATTISGARH 11 4 6 1 0
15 MAHARASHTRA 48 22 23 1 2
16 MANIPUR 2 1 1 0 0
17 MEGHALAYA 2 2 0 0 0
18 MIZORAM 1 1 0 0 0
19 NAGALAND 1 1 0 0 0
20 ORISSA 21 8 12 0 1
21 PUNJAB 13 5 8 0 0
22 RAJASTHAN 25 14 10 1 0
23 SIKKIM 1 1 0 0 0
24 TAMIL NADU 39 10 0 26 3
25 TRIPURA 2 0 0 2 0
26 UTTAR PRADESH 80 12 8 58 2
37 UTTARAKHAND 5 1 1 3 0
28 WEST BENGAL 42 4 0 32 6
29 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS 1 1 0 0 0
30 CHANDIGARH 1 0 1 0 0
31 DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI 1 0 1 0 0
32 DAMAN & DIU 1 0 1 0 0
33 DELHI 7 4 3 0 0
34 LAKSHADWEEP 1 1 0 0 0
35 PONDICHERRY 1 1 0 0 0
TOTAL 543 173 175 185 20
January 31st, 2009 at 5:59 PM
Hello, most of us are Either Working Professionals or Students or Research Scholars. We hardly have time for Each Constituency
and elections are held only for 543, 2 are nominated from AngloIndian Community
January 31st, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Hi,
Please prepare 545 pages( 545 parliament seats), like north,east,west,south, general issue.
1.Kanpur
2.Hyderabad
3.
4.
.
.
545. Calicut
For ex: kanpur
1. local issue 2. local slogan 3. local politics 4.Cast equation 5. local influential people
January 29th, 2009 at 3:56 PM
umn…, I cant comment on All
I am not even a member of BJP
January 29th, 2009 at 3:36 PM
Hi Raj,
B.J.P has announced lot of candidates, do you feel they have announced perfectly.
January 29th, 2009 at 3:34 PM
Hi,
I think you have more knowledge than Advani and Rajnath. I am not joking, really i am feeling.
Great analysis. I know top level and basic knowledge of politics.
January 29th, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Ritesh Ji, You are even more a greater BJP supporter than I am
anyway,I dont go for wishful thinking
in Telangana the seats where BJP is Strong are : Hyderabad, Secunderabad, Chevella, Malkajigiri, KarimNagar,Mehaboobnagar and the other potential winnable seats are : Pedapally, Nizamaabad, Adilabad(Hard), Nalgonda(Less Likely, however, if They field, C Janga Reddy, one of the two Lok Sabha Members of BJP in ’84) they can win this seat as He, C J Reddy is a strong Votary of Telangana
and also BJP should try to make huge InRoads in Warrangal, Zahirabad constituencies and try to win them as well. ModiJi’s presence alone is enough to Polarize votes
In The Coastal Andhra Region, BJP should Not shy away from fielding M Venkiah Naidu in Nellore(which from 2009 is an Open Constituency). In ’99 BJP Won This seat as a reserved constituency and in 2004 too, BJP lost very narrowly(ofcourse, there was BJP-TDP Alliance then), but, a lot has been attributed because of the developmental works carried out by M.Venkiah Naidu when He was a minister in Vaajpayee’s Cabinet.
The Congress candidate is former CM, N Janardhan Reddy who is quite popular among the masses. however, congress votebank this time would be dented by BSP as Nelore has a lotof dalit population as well as by chiru since, nellore hasa huge chiru fans association as well as people from his caste. In addition, the TDP Would consolidate it’s own vote bank.
Hence, BJP Should field M Venkiah Naidu and win the Nellore seat as a Prestige Issue.
Also, The previous MP From Nellore , a dalit should be given a reserved seat in the nellore region and that would do a lo of good to BJP.
Hindupur until yesterday was anbother seat where BJP could have raised hopes but ti seems, TDP is fielding Bala Krishna from Hindupur Assembly segment. This constituency for the past four years is being nurtured by their candidate, Actor Naresh. However, since Hindupur has a large Muslim population, if BJP Can Polarize votes, They can wrest this seat
Hindupur is in Rayalaseema.
Visakhapatnam is one seat where BJP’s chances are real High since Visakhapatnam has a huge Brahmin Population, If one takes into account, Visakhapatnam Urban Population, Brahmins constitute atleast 30 % of total VSKP Population!!!
In Narsapur, where there would be a fierce batle drawn on caste lines, the division of votes can benefit BJP which has announced Actor U V Krishnam Raju as it’s Candidate and His Nephew, a popular and A Very Handsome Hero of today’s telugu film Industry, Prabhas has declared He would campaign for BJP in this constituency.
Samajwadi Party if notches up an alliance with congress is likely to field Jayaprada from here while praja rajyam would field the incumbent MP against whom there is huge anti incumbency
TDP too would eye thios seat. Hence, in a Quadrangular fight, BJP would Win this seat
Vijayawada is another seat BJP Should work on, as they are planning to organize a Vijay Sankalp Yatra here
January 29th, 2009 at 8:45 AM
Hi Raj,
If it is 17 in Telangana then B.J.P should try to get 10/17 without the help of any other other party.
B.J.P should to get 10-A.P 10-TN 10-WestBengal and 5-Kerala.
how
1. Spend big amount of money (5000 cores only for 4 states)
2. Call strong dissident leaders, if they win give them ministry otherwise give them Rajya Sabha and tell them future is B.J.P and after 5 years B.J.P will have major role in forming gove in all these states.
3. Use film actors and top personality person.
4. Try to create problem for oppositon by putting indepedent candidate because B.J.P is using money.
5. Try to bring yatra, call modi and yedurappa for vikas yatra.
January 29th, 2009 at 8:35 AM
“There is a slight possibility that UPA can form government with the help of Left, SP, TMC and others. But then they will need outside support of BSP. Which is less likely as BSP and SP cannot be part of same government. ”
It will be suicidal for congress. This type of politics would not work this time( It was good at the time of Indira Gandi, that time opposition was not strong, immediately opposition–B.J.P will get advantage, B.J.P may get more than 75 seats in four states TN,WB,Kerala and AP. Then permanent alliance will be formed in all these states). Immediately election will take place. To avoid immediately election TDP, AIADMK or DMK.
TMC and some small party will support B.J.P. Otherwise in immediate
election will destrou small parties (TRS,TDP,DMK or AIADMK,TRS, BSP will bemajor sufferer because they are not part of any alliance)
January 28th, 2009 at 2:14 PM
Telangana has 17 seats after delimitation, not just 15.
In Lok Sabha Elections therefore, BJP has a chance in 5-7 seats
January 27th, 2009 at 11:57 PM
1. In telangana region B.J.P should call Telangana Rath Yatra under leadership of top B.J.P top leader( may Sushma Swaraj or Advani or Naidu or any other leader) . This activity may give B.J.P min 5-8 seats out of 15 seats in Telagana region.This “Telangana Rath Yatra ” should be in very broad way. All top leaders from all over the India should come with B.J.P workers and stay one day(Yatra may be continue 5 to 1o days)
January 27th, 2009 at 5:57 PM
mayawati will recieve a severe drubbing.
In Western UP BSP will come as a cropper.
In Eastern UP the fight will be between BJP and BSP while Central UP would witness a triangular fight between BJP led NDA, INC-SP combine and BSP
The media is giving an overwhelming response to maya and is projecting her like a champion and her BSP as a Major force. but, for sure, the psuedosecular media would have to eatt he humble pie once again post 2009
January 27th, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Nandan, This time NDA Would do well in UP and Mharashtra. Also, NDA is about to perform well or sweep in Punjab,Haryana,Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, MP, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan(remember, in the state elections INC Won in Rajasthan by default, because of InFighting in BJP. infact, congress didnt cross the half way mark, yet The media and congress lobby is projecting it as a decisive mandate for sonai maino). In Delhi, BJP lost because of distributing tickets to wrong candidates and VK Malhotra was not a match to sheila dixit, however, the media is overjoyed that its a victory for congress.
last time, in Gujarat, Maharashtra, WB, Bihar and Jharkhand UPA did very well and sweptin AP ,TN,Haryana. In Addition they also did well in some smaller states like Himachal Pradesh.
Howe ver, this time, in all these states with the exception of AP, congress would face severe setbacks.
In AP too, it wont bw a cakewalk for inc which is ally less this time around.
NDA Can Sweep in Maharasthra, Bihar, Haryana, Jharkhand and perform surprisingly well and surprise all poll pundits in UP.
In Addition, Telangana Factor will help BJP in The T Region of AP.
In TN, With Rajni’s support, BJP can make inroads.
congress would not ev en reach 100 seats in the coming elections.
January 27th, 2009 at 12:10 PM
I think BJP can not form a Govt. until it do well in Big States Like UP , TN, WB , AP and Maharastra. These States has almost 250 seats and BJP + likely to win 25 -30 seats in these states. So BJP need to work on these states and find allies if it wants to return to power. I think BJP + will win about 200 seats and i predict a hung assembly with key in mayawati , chandrababu and jaya ,s hands.
January 20th, 2009 at 6:36 PM
BJP March On………..LK Advani March On……..people of India are with you and we desperately want to see you as our PM to SAVE INDIA. No Kalyan Singh no Vairosingh can do any damage when the people of India are with you.
January 14th, 2009 at 6:33 PM
Save India. Help Shri L K Advani Campaign by visiting: http://www.lkadvani.in
January 13th, 2009 at 6:41 PM
ttl sts
2 “Cong camp
2 “BJP camp
4 “3RD
5 others
1 ANDHRA PRADESH 42 21,1,12,8(TRS+PR+)
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH 2 1 1 0 0
3 ASSAM 14 4 8 0 1
4 BIHAR 40 14 24 0 2
5 JHARKHAND 14 4 9 0 1
6 GOA 2 1 1 0 0
7 GUJARAT 26 4 22 0 0
8 HARYANA 10 4 3 3 0
9 HIMACHAL PRADESH 4 1 3 0 0
10 JAMMU & KASHMIR 6 3 0 0 3
11 KARNATAKA 28 6 20 2 0
12 KERALA 20 8 0 12 0
13 MADHYA PRADESH 29 8 20 0 1
14 CHHATTISGARH 11 3 11, 0,0
15 MAHARASHTRA 48 18 29, 1
16 MANIPUR 2 1 1 0 0
17 MEGHALAYA 2 2 0 0 0
18 MIZORAM 1 1 0 0 0
19 NAGALAND 1 1 0 0 0
20 ORISSA 21 8 12 0 1
21 PUNJAB 13 7 6 0 0
22 RAJASTHAN 25 17 8 0 0
23 SIKKIM 1 1 0 0 0
24 TAMIL NADU 39 26 0 14 0
25 TRIPURA 2 0 0 2 0
26 UTTAR PRADESH 80 8 8 22 42
37 UTTARAKHAND 5 1 3 0 1
28 WEST BENGAL 42 4 13 25 0
29 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS 1 1 0 0 0
30 CHANDIGARH 1 1 1 0 0
31 DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI 1 ,0 ,0 0
32 DAMAN & DIU 1 00 0
33 DELHI 7 5 2 0 0
34 LAKSHADWEEP 1 1 0 0 0
35 PONDICHERRY 1 1 0 0 0
TOTAL 543 181 178
December 31st, 2008 at 2:55 PM
I pray the god for win of BJP. I think L K ADVANI may become powerful prime minister for india and he will change the face of India.
It is not possible by lazy and useless congress leaders.
we save our religion(HINDU) by only vote to BJP.