by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:38 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.
April 29th, 2009 at 3:47 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
April 27th, 2009 at 4:30 PM
http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.com
http://www.sanjeevgnaik.com/index.html
A similar political rally was organized at Turbhe stores in support of NCP-Congress-RPI candidate Dr Sanjeev Naik. Along with the maximum participation of RPI and Congress party workers, The Planned development is for everybody to see. I Strongly feel that candidates should have vision and my vision is holistic development. In Navi Mumbai we have worked towards reducing the impact of rapid urbanization on the environment . Navi Mumbai’s is the only civic body to have its sewage treatment plant. I believe other civic bodies should also have their own sewage treatment plants. I also have plans for decentralization of sewage treatment plants with the big housing complexes having their own sewage treatment plants
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:51 AM
Ambar your comments make me Laugh as They Are Ludiculous!!!seriously, you seem to have run away from A Mental Assylum
April 23rd, 2009 at 1:45 AM
My prediction for Congress in Bengal is 11 seats. Lets wait and watch …
April 23rd, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Gorkhas were originally Rajputs. Bappa Rawal (Prince Kalbhoj) of the Mewar dynasty in Rajasthan (Rajputana), was the first Gorkha. He was a follower of the Hindu Sage Gorakhnath (Shaivaite), from where he got the name Gorkha (modern day Gurkha). Bappa Rawals descendants moved eastwards and are said to have formed the state of Nepal. (Prithvi Narayan Shah of Nepal was a Gorkha). The Royal family of Nepal claim to be descendents of Bappa Rawal.
Gorkha in Prakrit means ‘Cow Protector’ (Gou Rakkha).
April 21st, 2009 at 3:03 AM
Here is a interesting site (http://truthburster.co.in )for those who like to predict election results. You can predict the results and can compare once the results are announced. Just to prove you know better than others.
April 19th, 2009 at 1:46 PM
NO Way Raja.
STs Vote for BJP and NOT for congress.
SCs Alltogether DONT Wont for congress
Minorities are Minorities, let them vote for congress, it hardly matters any
April 19th, 2009 at 10:02 AM
http://www.darjeelingtimes.com/news/Photo-Stories/Darjeeling-Welcomes-Jaswant-Singh.html
April 17th, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Based on the feedback received from Maharashtra, Jharkhand, hatisgarh, Bihar & UP, I guess BJP led NDA has to wait till 2014 for tasting power. Minorities, SC/STs have voted in a big way in Phase I. Way it is going BJP may end up with 120-125 seats only and NDA at 165-170 seats.
Based on what I have gathered from preliminary sources is given below.
1) Maharashtra : UPA sweep in Vidharbha (UPA = 7-8, NDA = 2-3) and advantage in Marathwada (UPA = 2-3, NDA = 0-1)
2) Jharkhand : UPA has upper hand (UPA = 3-4, NDA = 0-1, Others = 1-2). Yeshwant Sinha, Karia Munda may lose.
3) Orissa : INC sweep (INC = 6, BJP+ = 1, BJD/NCP/Left = 3)
4) Bihar : NDA & RJD+ neck and neck (NDA = 7, RJD+ = 6)
5) UP : INC/BJP wash out. Main fight between SP & BSP (BSP = 8-9, SP = 4-5, BJP = 1-2, INC = 0-1). Yogi Adiyanath, Murli M Joshi may lose.
6) Assam = INC upper hand (INC = 2, BJP+ = 1)
7) Chattisgarh : INC is on a road to recovery. Local level anti-incumbency against sitting MPs is peaking. (BJP = 6-7, INC = 4-5). BJP has miscalculated on this issue.
North East : INC has an upper hand (INC = 4 , NDA = 2, Left = 1)
I was surprised by the feedback and am cross-checking to be really sure.
Would give the final estimates tomoprrow by 8PM after cross-checking with other sources.
April 15th, 2009 at 12:39 AM
@ raja
I have posted your prediction as separate post. see at front page of blog.
Thanks for wonderful inputs.
April 15th, 2009 at 12:36 AM
Hello everyone!
I am the Sales head of my company, in charge of Eastern, Central and Western India. My areas include Eastern & Central UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam/NE, West Bengal, Orissa, MP, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. My subordinates and me travel to length and breadth of these states, including rural and semi urban areas and meet a lot of people (panchayat leaders, local groups etc). For the past 4-5 months; politics / lok sabha elections invariably come up during our discussions with them. Based on these feedbacks I am putting up my estimates for the elections in these states;
1) Bihar – Caste is still a predominant factor. Muslims still have a suspicion towards LKA as PM and would prefer a UPA goverment at Centre and Nitish Kumar Govt at state level. But Nitish’s good governance plank has also made inroads as people are getting fruits of developement after a long time. Though it is an advantage JD(U)-BJP, Laloo is down but not out. It is the LJP votes that are gradually tilting towrds the NDA. Paswan is in for a shocker. INC may be blanked out.
My guesstimate : NDA = 24-27, RJD+ = 13-16, INC = 0-1.
2) Eastern & Central UP – Signs of anti-incumbency showing up especially among forward castes, who have started tilting towards the BJP, although slowly. Moreover tickets to goons given by BSP and hooliganism by their cadres are hurting the party. Dalits would vote en bloc for BSP even though signs of anger on the incumbent Chief Minister are getting visible. Minority vote is divided and I suspect that the earlier “strategic voting to defeat BJP” would be absent this time. NSA on Varun Gandhi has polarised the situation to some extent and this would deliver additional votes to the BJP in this part of UP. But ground reality is that if BJP can project Varun Gandhi as the next BJPs Chief Ministerial candidate, he would give Mayawati and Mulayam sleepless nights for UP Vidhan Sabha polls 2012. But the biggest shocker would be for SP as they are gradually losing the minority (BSP is getting stronger) and OBC (3-way split – SP/BJP/BSP) votes. BJP’s Yogi Adityanath may also be in for a shock this time. INC would be blanked out in most of the seats won by them in 2004 (Kanpur, Bansgaon, Allahabad). BJP is on a silent upswing especially in the urban areas, which is not visible to media. BSP is however still the frontrunner.
My guesstimate in these areas where I frequently visit (42 seats) : BSP = 25-28, SP = 6-8, BJP = 7-9, INC = 2-3 (including Amethi, Rai Barelli).
3) Jharkhand – Huge anti incumbency against the incumbent State Government but not so much against the Centre. Here independents are also queering the pitch. Both BJP and INC are facing internal sabotage. 3 cornered contest with slight advantage to NDA. In fact had NDA allied with JVM and JD(U) given ticket to Sri.I.S.Namdhari, it would have been a landslide.
My guesstimate : NDA = 5-7, UPA = 4-6, RJD+ = 1-2, JVM = 1, Independent = 1 (I.S.Namdhari).
4) Madhya Pradesh – A highly divided opposition makes the task of BJP quite easy. Leaders of INC are busy squabbling among themselves leaving its cadres directionless in both states. Anti incumbency against sitting MPs is steadily gaining ground in both states but INC is unable to capitalise. Had INC put up suitable candidates and presented a united face, they would have won around 15-18 seats in these 2 states. But this is not happening on the ground.
My guesstimate for MP : NDA = 22-24, UPA = 5-7
My guesstimate for Chattisgarh : NDA = 8-9, UPA = 2-3
5) Orissa – BJD has committed a hara kiri by breaking its alliance with the BJP. This was on the cards for quite some time now after Kandhamal violence. In fact lot of leaders of BJD who were against the autocratic style of Navin Patnaik, are joining BJP after the divorce. Navin Patnaik has created a myth of “Orissa Shining” like NDA did in 2004. Though the INC is a divided house, there is every possibility that it may become the single largest party after the assembly polls given the anti incumbency especially in rural and tribal areas. BJP is still carrying the baggage of anti incumbency of 10 years of BJD-BJP rule and would lose substantial votes this time. But in the long run it can consolidate its votes and may reduce BJD like JD(S) in Karnataka or JD in Gujarat. If however, it once again allies with the BJD post poll, then it is curtains for the saffron party and a lot of leaders would desert it. If on the other hand BJD decides to support an INC led government at the Centre (based on certain media reports), it can be rest assured that BJP would come to power on its own in the state during the next round of Assembly polls.
My guesstimate for Orissa : INC = 10-12, BJD/NCP/Left = 7-9, BJP = 3-4
6) West Bengal – Another “UPA shining” fiasco on the cards. There is a deep sense of anger in Kolkata and its adjoining districts over the anti development agenda of Smt.Mamata Banerjee. The city and its adjoining suburbs would vote against UPA in a big way leaving them high and dry. Though UPA alliance would pick some seats in rural Bengal, the media hype created would turn out to be hollow. In fact INC may lose a seat or two over 2004. BJP may win Darjeeling and Krishnanagar seats if it works hard.
My guesstimate for West Bengal : INC = 4-5, TMC = 6-7, BJP = 1-2, Left = 29-31
7) Assam – Incumbent government is in extremely bad shape with a huge anti-incumbency against both State and Centre. Adding to its woes is the recent bomb blasts and the emergence of AUDF, which is eating away minority votes in large chunks. AUDF has allied with the Left/NCP thus damaging the prospects of INC further. BJP has stitched up a smart alliance with AGP/AGP(P) and is getting stronger day by day. INC sources fear that heavy weights like Santosh Mohan Dev may also bite the dust this time.
My guesstimate for Assam : NDA = 11-12, INC = 0-2, AUDF/NCP/Left = 0-1
My guesstimate for Gujarat : INC = 9-11, BJP = 15-17
9) Maharashtra – The ground situation is peculiar. Though anti-incumbency is beginning to peak, people of Maharashtra is still ready to vote for UPA – I was very surprised with the feed back. This is particularly true among dalits and minorities. High MSP of cotton, good rains coupled with loan waiver has helped UPA to score brownie points in Vidharbha. The biggest problem plaguing the NDA is absence of charismatic leaders and ground level mistrust between SHS and BJP. Though similar mistrust exists between the UPA partners also, the committed vote base of the 2 alliances is tilted in favour of the UPA. Based on our discussions with people I guess that Marathwada region would see a UPA sweep while NDA would score substantial gains in Mumbai-Pune-Thane belt. Vidharbha area would see a 60:40 split in favour of UPA.
My guesstimate for Maharastra : NDA = 21-23, UPA = 25-27
April 14th, 2009 at 7:58 AM
http://beacononline.wordpress.com/2009/04/13/sikkim-jaswantmania-in-darjeeling-beefs-up-sikkim-bjp%e2%80%99s-confidence/
April 11th, 2009 at 5:44 PM
BJP lead NDA government will form the next government in parliament the prediction is not right according to my calucation various issues taken widely and deeply to consideration for the polls BJP will get 208 seats +its
allies will get around nearly 85 to 90 seats it is very easy to NDA will form the government. For example Uttar pradesh it self after varuns issue BJP will ger 40+ seats
Thanks
April 7th, 2009 at 2:02 AM
–rjd-ljp 15 in bihar only in dreams.
–bjp-ss 25 in maha this is not analysis it is just copy pasting 2004 results.
–tie in himachal and 2 seats to bjp-inld combine in haryana is foolish.
April 6th, 2009 at 9:27 AM
Veteran RJD Leader joins JD(U), further weaking Lallu & Paswan Alliance,
http://www.patnadaily.com/news2009/apr/040309/vijay_krishna_joins_jdu.html
April 5th, 2009 at 10:49 PM
Hi
Here is another opinion poll by India TV with jaswant Deshmukh and Psephologist .
It is the latest one conducted between 18 to 26 th. march , howver chnages are taking since then and will keep changing .
It has not shwon any seats for BJP in AP ,WB,less no. in MP,Haryana, HP , Bihar.
This the first survey which is putting BJP aheads of congress.
So far as Arun Nehru analysis is concern he is simply doing all the analysis based his assessment without sampling and data base which is ridiculous.
So its change is the scenario as the election is approacing closer things will be more favourable for BJP and worse for congress.
I don’t know all surveys are giving above 20 seats to congress in AP and no seats to BJP and less no. seats to TDP/TRS.
India TV releases post-election picture in massive pre-election survey
India TV releases post-election picture in massive pre-election survey
Main Points:
Prima facie NDA (187) has minor edge over UPA (178); if UPA is minus SP (30), RJD/LJP (15)
On their own, BJP (144) is marginally ahead of Congress (133)
If after elections, SP (30), RJD/ LJP (15), PRP (6), PDP (1), Others (5) back UPA, UPA+ will have 57 more seats (235)
In other words, Fourth Front comprising SP, RJD/LJP, PRP, and PDP have 52 seats
Third Front (121) holds the key with BSP (26), TDP/TRS (14), Left (35), JDS (4), BJD (10), AIADMK 31, HJC 1)
As for the single-largest party in states, Cong (22) ahead in Andhra, JD (U) in Bihar, BJP (18) in Gujarat, Cong (7) in Haryana, Cong-BJP tie in Himachal, NC (3) in J&K, BJP (20) in MP, BJP (13) in Maharashtra with both Shiv Sena and NCP having 12 each, Cong (6) in Punjab but BJP+SAD having 7, Cong 13 in Rajasthan, Left (25) in West Bengal, SP (30) in UP, BJP (9) in Chattisgarh, AIADMK (30) in Tamil Nadu, BJP (17) in Karnataka, Cong (5) in Delhi, BJP (6) in Assam, BJP (8) in Jharkhand, UDF (12) in Kerala, BJP (10) in Orissa, Cong (7) in N-E
Loss for DMK (7), BSP (26)
New Delhi, April 4, 2009: Rajat Sharma’s India TV has declared the results of a massive and first-ever pre-election survey conducted exclusively by reporters. NDA (187) has a minor edge over UPA (178) and the BJP (144) may win more seats than the Congress (133). But if UPA can bring back its former constituents, SP (30) and RJD/LJP (15) and some others it will reach 235, the survey said.
On its part, the BJP (144) may be able to add 43 more seats from existing allies constituents taking the tally of NDA to 187. So, if the Fourth Front gets back to UPA, the key therefore would still lie with the Third Front constituents at 121. The UPA may then need 37 of them to break away to reach the magical mark of 272. If, on the other hand, some constituents of the Third Front minus Left (120 minus 35) join with NDA (187), the NDA may still need break-away groups from the Fourth Front.
The survey covering the entire country and 50,000 respondents has thrown up the first authentic estimates of what the situation will be like on May 16, 2009, when final results of the Lok Sabha are declared. “More than 200 experienced reporters fanned across demographies, castes, religion, and seats to emerge with this comprehensive and nuanced picture on the mood in the Nation,” India TV Chairman and Editor-in-Chief Rajat Sharma said. “This is also the first time that a survey has been done on-camera.”
“In our commitment to give outstanding and most credible and politically astute input to the Nation, a follow-up survey reflecting the swift-changing developments will be unveiled later this month,” Mr Sharma said.
Note for Editors:
State wise tally
A P (42) TDP/TRS 14 Cong 22 PRP 06
Bihar (40) BJP 08 JD (U) 18 RJD/LJP 14
Gujarat (26) BJP 18 Cong 08
Haryana (10) BJP 01 Cong 07 INLD 01 HVP 01
Himachal (4) BJP 02 Cong 02
J & K (6) BJP 01 Cong 01 NC 03 PDP 01
M P (29) BJP 20 Cong 09
Maharashtra (48) BJP 13 Cong 11 SS 12 NCP 12
Punjab (13) BJP 03 Cong 06 SAD 04
Rajasthan (25) BJP 12 Cong 13
West Bengal (42) TMC 11 Cong 06 Left 25
U P (80) BJP 15 Cong 06 SP 30 BSP 26 RLD 03
Chattisgarh (11) BJP 09 Cong 02
Tamil Nadu (39) AIDMK 30 Cong 02 DMK 07
Karnataka (28) BJP 17 Cong 07 JD (S) 04
Uttarakhand (5) BJP 03 Cong 02
Delhi (7) BJP 02 Cong 05
Assam (14) BJP 06 Cong 04 AGP 04
Jharkhand (14) BJP 08 Cong 01 JMM 02 JDU 01 Oth 01RJD 01
Kerala (20) Left 08 UDF 12
Orissa (21) BJP 03 Cong 08 BJD 10
North East (19)BJP 03 Cong 07 NCP 02 Left 02 AIADNK 01Oth04
NDA 144+43 = 187
BJP 144
BJP+ 43 (JDU 19+SS 12+SAD 4+RLD 3+AGP 4+INLD 1)
UPA 133 + 45= 178
Cong 133
Cong+ 45 (NC 3 +NCP 14+TMC 11+DMK 7+UDF 08+ JMM 02)
Third Front = 120
(BSP 26+TDP/TRS 14 +Left 35+ JDS 04+BJD 10+AIDMK 31)
Others 5 + 53 = 58
SP = 30
RJD/LJP = 15
PRP = 06
HVP = 01
PDP = 01
April 5th, 2009 at 9:40 PM
Another Jolt to RJD-LJSP as Pappu Yadav to campaign for Congress,
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/pappu-yadav-switches-sides-will-campaign-for-cong/89546-37.html
Also, Congress is proving to be a party of all proven criminals.
April 5th, 2009 at 5:09 AM
Darjeeling is A Sure Seat. New Jalpaiguri is Boit Difficult and more efforts have to be put in.
Other Seats where BJP should Focus regarding WB are : DumDum,KrishnaNagar,Joynagar,Barasat and Malda North
April 4th, 2009 at 5:30 PM
Hi Raj,
Long time before i told Sushma( National figure) should fight from WB. Now Jaswant(National figure) is fighting from
WB. BJP will win Darjling and JalpaiGuri and two more seat also.
Jaswant will take care of total four seats around Darjling.
BJP will perform well in four seats.