- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
Take a look at these related posts:
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
October 19, 2008 at 4:41 PM
With alliance of AGP-BJP confirmed in Assam, I think you should change your assessment.
Also TMC will perform much better in south Bengal with Nano becoming a factor in the agricultural rich area.
October 20, 2008 at 10:40 PM
I think if mamatha joins with congress she would loose as well. becuase now anti incubency is heavily there against the central government and congress is losing in rest of the country heavily.This is not a good timing for mamata. Also, now that lose of nano project has cost much more damage to WB than what would have happened otherwise. People start realizing the foolish nature of mamata and what would happen if power falls in her hands. Only more poverty and begging.
January 3, 2009 at 3:06 AM
weakening of left will make bjp strong in some 5 to 6 constituencies if bjp ties up with mamta didi they will be in position to throw left below 20 figure. if she ties up with cong anti incumbency factor against centre could help bjp to improve its tally to a surprising double digits. i dont think anti incumbency will help left because they were a part of centre lately west bengal would be really interesting to watch this election as it is full of uncertainty.
bjp+trinamool :6+18=24
inc : 5
left :14
or
inc+trinamool=5+15=20
bjp :8-10
left :15-13 of 42 in total.
January 3, 2009 at 3:12 AM
assam bjp alliance with agp could be bjps answer to cong-sp alliance in
u.p. alliance would emerge very strong would be helpfull in all constituencies.
January 3, 2009 at 6:47 PM
BJP-BJD will sweep Orissa
This time BJP and BJD combine is expected to win 21 out of 21 seats in Orissa. Now Congress is not a force in Orissa and with a performing CM in Naveen Patnaik people will definitely go with him.
January 8, 2009 at 1:13 PM
I agree with Prasad on Orissa and with Ashwin on Assam
in Assam, BJP-AGP would win 11 of 14 seats, with AGP 7 and BJP 4 if they have a seat sharing of 9:5 respectively.
In Orissa, BJD-BJP Combine would retain 19 (10+9)
However, in Bengal BJP can at the most win 5-6 seats.
They need to stitch an Alliance with Gorkha Liberation Front and take full advantage of The Anti-Incumbancy factor.
Also, The Hindu Votes have to be consolidated.
Please remember that in ’96 elections BJP Won 12 % of The Popular vote in Bengal. However, Their alliance with the mercurial and hysterical Mmata Banerjee has dampened their prospects since 2001.
BJP should Not play a junior partner in WB and instead should Lead a force.
As both INC-TMC and LF are vying for muslim vote, The Angered Hindus, atleast the Upper Castes should Vote decisively for BJP. This combined with local factors in certain rural areas and northern districts of Bengal (by alligning with Gorkha Liberation Front) can help BJP and shock both LF and INC-TMC Combine.
January 10, 2009 at 10:23 PM
I hope Ns naveen and nitish will see nda through.West Bengal will be rigorously fought between Left and TMC-Congress alliance.Assam should be lost to Congress and won By BJP-AGP.rest of states will show mixed results.In Jharkhand again it will be BJP.
January 25, 2009 at 8:06 PM
Hi Raj,
Thanks for your intt. in politics and what appears to me that you are a pro BJP and its good as BJP is the only party with Strong Nationalist party with belief in our culture and belief .
As your coverage looks little weak in eastern paart of the country ,that I will supplement . The final analysis looks will as under :
Bihar NDA(BJP 12+ BJD 18) UPA (RJD 7 LJP 3 Con 0)
Orissa NDA (BJP 6+ BJD 11)
WB Left 28 TMC 9 Con 4 BJP 1)
Assam NDA( BJP 4 AGP 6) Cong 1 others 1
Jharkhand NDA( BJP 9 JDU 1) UPA 3 others 1
Chhattisgarh BJP 9 Con 2
NE BJP 3 Cong 6 Left 2 others 4
Howver BJP bring back Babulal Marandi and Inder Singh Namdhari with JDU with well galvanised campaign they can even clean sweep jharkhnd.
January 25, 2009 at 8:28 PM
Dear Anil,
You are right the BJP needs to do well in Jharkhand for which it should not ignore the JD(U). In the recent bye election in Tamar wherein Shibu Soren lost the BJP actually lost their deposit with the JD(U) doing better.
Jharkhand along with Bihar are key battle ground states for the BJP in the east. The BJP in Bengal must do the maximum to damage the prospects of the Congress and its allies. It should not treat the Left as its enemy No. 1 and Cong as enemy No. 2.
January 25, 2009 at 10:55 PM
Hi Hari,
I wasing mood of india which this time round the fight for the Gen Election will mainly on national issue and between NDA & UPA and look like a reversal of 2004 where all opinion poll predicted NDA victory without knowing the ground reality that india shining is limited 10% of the population and the 90% of the soiciety is still struggling to meet their both end .
Dearness,terrosrism,Corruption and how to make the benifit of development reach to the poor will matter a lot .
It will not reach by loan waiver , 100 days NREGP which is mere wastage of public money collected from us .
Just look what is happend with satyam both NAIDU and YSR are hand in gloves with Raju and have minted money are aboslute corrupt why BJP is not highlighting these issues .
It will big issues amongst the urban elite and lietrate class and only time will hpw the UPA govt has misused the public money .
I am neither supporter of NDA or UPA but the alliance which are patriotic and those who can make this development reach to the poorest .
I hate politician like mayawati .mulayam , lalu not because there are from OBC but they they have done nothing for their caste except few police jobs and plum posting.
take the example of Nitish , Navin Patnaik, Narender Modi , Shivraj singh , Sheela Dixit , they working toward the development which will not to a particular caste or class .
I hate these communist, jayalalitha , mamata mayawati as they are the corrupt and with no principle and can bedfellow any body
They should not be voted at all.
January 26, 2009 at 4:15 PM
Anil Ji, I am Without Doubt Pro-BJP.
Also I concur with Thiru Hari that BJP Should leave 3-5 seats for JD(U) in Jharkhand or Another way is BJP Leave JD(U) 3 seats and accomodate 2 for Babulal Marandi’s Party.
However, Can BJP Led NDA Win 30 seats in Bihar? There is Rivalry between George Fernandez faction and Sharad Yadav factions. However, if they mend fences or George Fernandes deicides Not to contest elections, then BJP-JD(U) can win 10+15 seats in Bihar.
In Orissa, I feel BJP-BJD Alliance can retain 9+10 seats
In Assam, there are 14 seats, so BJP-AGP alliance can win 9-11 seats
I feel, It’s hard to break Communists ground in Tripura. In Manipur BJP Shoulod Wrest a Seat from Congress. However, In Arunachal Pradesh I feel, BJP Can repeat it’s performance of Winning both the seats.
Also, in WB, BJP Should damage The Prospects of congress and and Trinamool Congress in WB.
January 28, 2009 at 3:38 PM
Hi Raj,
I know the real scenario of bihar what is happening over there and you will surprise to know that NDA could even 35 seats there.
Reasons
1) All Criminal like Sahabuddin,Pappu Yadav and many other are behind the bars and will not be able to manipulate the results by using muscle power,
2) NDA govt. in bihar has done great work by doing development work over which will swing the 20% pro development and educated people mindsets,
3) Nitish has broken the lalu OBC consolidation by segregating the OBC in to OBC & EBC and reserving the local level Panchayat seats to EBC there by taking away a large chunk of it from Lalu ,
4) Last it was RJD who was ruling the Bihar and they manipulate results of some the constituency by use money, muscle and administration ,
5) I don’t see except Lalu & Ramvilas winning chance over there.
So u will surprise to see the results of Bihar.
Regarding Jharjkhand , JDU don’t have strong base except few lak sabha seats like Inder Singh Namdhari who was sescond in one of the constituency , so by bringing back BabuLal marandi and proper understanding with JDU, as they some votes in each const, NDA can clean sweep the Jharkhand.
January 28, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Hi Anil, I wish NDA Wins 35 Seats in Bihar. Probably they would. And also, BJP Should have an Alliance with JD(U) not only in Jharkhand but also at All India level. In Karnataka, BJP Should leave 3 seats to JD(U), similarly, 1 in Manipur and 1 in Rajasthan. In Addition, I was quite surprised to note that JD(U) did extremely well in some of the constituencies in 2004 Lok Sabha Polls in TN .
Therefore, BJP Should have an Alliance with JD(U) in TN and should romp in SuperStar Rajnikanth for Electoral Campaign
January 28, 2009 at 9:54 PM
In West Bengal BJP can Win in Krishnanagar, by allocating the seat to sri Satyabrata Mukherjee, He won in 2009 and lost in 2004 narrowly.
Similarly, DumDum should be given to Sri Tapan Sikdar, He won twice from there.
And also BJP Should form an Alliance with Gorkhaland Sangarsh Saamiti
Further, BJP Should fight tooth and Nail to Defeat Trinamool Congress and Congress Candidates and Teach Mamta Banerjee a Lesson for hobnobbing with congress, the erstwile allies of commies
January 29, 2009 at 12:32 PM
In Bengal B.J.P should make 3 issues.
1. Ileagal migration of muslim from Bangaldesh
2. In Urban area B.J.P should talk about development by calling Vikas Rath Yatra headed by ( Advani and Narendra Modi ,Sushma Swaraj)
3. Sushma Swaraj should fight election from WB and Delhi(because of safe seat). She should be Home minister candidate from NDA.
4. Use Nitish Kumar and modi from Bihar in WB, because lot of biharis are in Calcutta. Use Naveen Patnaik for uria vote in WB.
5. To win Darjeeling seat, B.J.P should have silent understanding with Gorkhaland.
January 29, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Ritesh Ji, There should be An Overt Alliance with Gorkhaland Liberation Front(remember they arent fighting for separate country but for a separate state)
BJP Should use Modi i Both Assam as well as Bengal.
and similarly raise the issue of border infiltration in these two states.
January 29, 2009 at 3:16 PM
Hi,
U are having great knowledge.
How many seats B.J.P can win Bengal worst and best.
January 29, 2009 at 3:52 PM
worst case Nil
Best case 2
In WB, BJP is in a complete dissarray
Further, The BJP is not exuding any confidence in WB Cadres.
however, I cant comment on WB BJP as I am from AP.
may be someone else can make a better analysis
January 29, 2009 at 4:04 PM
Hi,
Good communiacation is needed between top B.J.P leaders and cadres.
It is possible through (a) Physical presence (b) Video Conferece (C) Mobile speech (d) Audio and Video Recording (e) Yahoo Mess.
In parties cadres are having big role. There is need to motivate them. These cadres will bring voters to pooling booth.
Ritesh Gupta
January 29, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Yes,but, WB is one state that Elude’s BJP’s Success in 2009.
They can at the most win 2 seats if some ground work is done there.
I Wonder Why BJP is NOT Paying any attention to This Particular State.
January 29, 2009 at 9:56 PM
In West Bengal, Malda has been split into two constituencies Malda North and Malda south. As I see, Malda is a Muslim Dominated Constituency and from here congress fielded Ghani Khan Choudary and now in the next election too they would certainly field a muslim.
BJP in 2004 fielded Muzaffar Khan and therefore lost a lot of Hindu Votes to CPI(M). However, This time, BJP should Bring in Modi Ji to campaign here and the constituency with more Hidu votes should be given to A Strong Hindu Leader to Polarize The Hindu Vote while Muzaffar khan can be relegated to the less winnable muslim dominated constituency
January 29, 2009 at 10:13 PM
Hi Raj,
one more thing Top leader of B.J.P should fight second seat from four states( These will be weakest seat, and there will be gaurantee not to win). This will be create wave(print meadia and local channel) for B.J.P in four states(WB,TN,Kerala,AP).
To justify they should we have to create base in four states. No need of any compaigning. They have to work hard for first seat.
From AP–10 TN–10 WB-10 Keral–5
January 29, 2009 at 10:13 PM
Joy Nagar, Birbhum, Dum Dum, Krishna Nagar,AramBagh,Malda both North and South,Midnapur,Bardwan are The Constituencies BJP should Focus on
January 29, 2009 at 10:18 PM
Another Constituency I forgot to mention is Bardhaman-Durgapur.
In These constituencies, While BJP can at the most Win only a few, like 2-3 seats, BJP needs to create A Vote Base here and Poll a Sufficiently High number of Votes. BJP Should Not be bothered of defeating other Candidates and Instead should Work for Polling a maximum for themselves even if it were to result in LF winning as many seats due to a split in anti-communist votes
January 29, 2009 at 10:47 PM
Good News for BJP Well Wishers, Particularly Those like me and Ritesh Ji who are concerned of BJP’s lack of a Possitive Attitude towards This State!!!
BJP has announced a list of 23 Candidates for The Lok Sabha Polls of Which17 are from West Bengal!!! Which Means There would be Mass contact programmes and door to door campaign and some Yatras and Public Gatherings in This state as well, which has Not seen much of BJP Activity in recent months.
Another Good News is that Sri Tapan Sikdar is returning to BJP in WB Along with His Supporters.
The List Includes:
1. former CPM MP from Barasat — Bratin Sengupta Who has fair chances of Winning
2. Satya Brata Mukherjee from Krishna Nagar, from where He is Sure to Win this time around
3.Tataghat Roy from Kolkatta North where He is likely to face md. salim, hence, if BJP can polarize votes, He can Win from here
4. From Darjeeling, BJP has announced former IPS Officer Dawa Sherpa
in These four constituencies BJP Should Work Hard try to Win Them
Another Potential Winnable seat is DumDum where BJP is likely to field Tapan Sikdar
January 29, 2009 at 11:09 PM
Try to include more dissident of B.J.P.
January 29, 2009 at 11:09 PM
Try to include more dissident of Left and TMC congress.
January 29, 2009 at 11:32 PM
I have done very good analysis. How BJP may get 10 seats.
Left should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC and Congress. If not congress then TMC.
If in centre left gives support to congress then it will be last time of left in Indian politics. Best option for left, It should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC. That way left may get support of B.J.P to get some seats at the cost of TC. That way BJP may secure 10 seats in WB.
January 29, 2009 at 11:44 PM
I have done very good analysis. How BJP may get 5 seats in Kerala.
Left should support B.J.P from background to defeat congress.
If in centre left gives support to congress then it will be last time of left in Indian politics. Best option for left, It should support B.J.P from background to defeat congress. That way left may get support of B.J.P to get some seats at the cost of congress. That way BJP may secure 10 seats in WB.
January 29, 2009 at 11:46 PM
Keral Analysis
============
I have done very good analysis. How BJP may get 10 seats.
Left should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC and Congress. If not congress then TMC.
If in centre left gives support to congress then it will be last time of left in Indian politics. Best option for left, It should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC. That way left may get support of B.J.P to get some seats at the cost of TC. That way BJP may secure 10 seats in WB.
January 29, 2009 at 11:57 PM
Kerala Analysis
============
I have done very good analysis. How BJP may get 10 seats.
Left should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC and Congress. If not congress then TMC.
If in centre left gives support to congress then it will be last time of left in Indian politics. Best option for left, It should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC. That way left may get support of B.J.P to get some seats at the cost of TC. That way BJP may secure 10 seats in WB.
January 30, 2009 at 3:06 AM
NO Way!!
It’s Wishful thinking to expect Left supporting BJP to suppress Trinamool INC lliance.
Further, Though The Media is portraying mamata didi as a Force, I dont think she would be able to consolidate ehr position except in Singur Nandigram Zones
North Bengal is still A Citadel for commies and Only INC has some chances in select constituencies there.
Both BJP as well as Trinamool Congress are strong and are limited to south, western parts and central Districts of West Bengal.
Here, BJP should take full advantage and garner as many votes as possible and should Not worry about Victory but of Vote Share.
If BJP Can Muster 20% of Popular Vote, which it can do so this time as Upper Castes are completely fed up with congress for the OBC Quota and irked by commies support, And because WB has an Overwhelming Upper Caste/Forward Caste Population, BJP can make inroads and Most Important, BJP Should Not lose the poor Forward Caste votes to mayawati
January 30, 2009 at 3:11 AM
Ritesh Ji, Your Analysis looks Sweet
may I know how old are You?
You seem to be a kid and a novice
anyway, let’s talk with Reality in mind.
being Pro BJP we may have our own analysis but it wont work that way as ground realities are rather different.
BJP in the south Apart from Karnaaka can best bet on AP particularly on Telangana And Select Pockets in AP such as Visakhapatnam, Nellore by fielding M Venkiah Naidu fro there as Nellore has become a general seat post delimitation and by fielding the former MP From Nellore in one of the reserved Assembly Constituencies
Though Praja Rajyam initially sent shocks , it’s now losing it’s clout and many feel they may just be limited to the four districts of Guntur, Krishna and the two Godavari Districts.
January 30, 2009 at 9:38 AM
Hi Raj and Vikas,
Basically i belong to U.P.
(1)In U.P Mayawati was using abusive language against upper caste 10 years before publicly. And uppercaste supported Mayavati. In today politics anything is possible.
(2) Left was real opponent of Congress in India, left is not real opponent of B.J.P. After that left supported Congress in Centre.In today politics anything is possible.
(3) After pancayat election Two B.J.P elected members supported left in West Bengal.In today politics anything is possible.
(4) SP was saying Kalyan Singh( Core BJP person)is communal. Now Kalyan is secular.
This is open support. Everyone is knowing. If left will try to stop BJP in centre, he will be no more. Am i right or wrong. One day left and congress will sit together in WestBengal and Kerala.B.J.P will be main opposition party. It is good for left B.J.P should form gov centre.
Openly left can not support BJP. From background it can support to BJP for 2 or 3 seat. In return left will try to get 5 seats from BJP( how, If TMC field SC candidate then BJP will also field SC candidate and SC vote will be divided, left will get advantage of this.)
I know it easy to think but very difficult to do. It is good for left’s future.
============================
Q 1: If no one is able to muster 273 seats. Will immediately election take place or what will be the option. If immediately election takes place who will be major looser?
Ans: Major looser who are not alliance of either BJP or congress.
If immediately election takes place left can not get more than 20 seats.
Mayawati can not get more than 15 seats in UP. PDP,TDP,TMC, TRS and PRP will no more exist. For LokSatta, ther will be no “Lok” and no “Satta”, Only reliable partners of BJP and Congress will exist.
Q2. Congress and BJP can not sit together.I see only .000001% possibility. Is it true?
Q3. Neither Congress nor BJP will support third front priminister.
I see only .000001% possibility. Is it true?
Ans: If BJP supports third front candidate for 2 years. It will be suicidal for BJP. Same thing for congress.
If BJP does, it will be major.
Q4 : DMK and AIADMK can not sit together in centre. Is it true?
Q5: SP and BSP can not sit together in centre. Is it true?
Q6 :Congress and (TDP+TRS) can not sit together in centre. Is it true?
It is centre politics not state politics.
==========================
Personally i do not see any alliance can form gov. If it happened, it would be major blow for indian economy. Advani is the only person who can improve indian economy( BJP can form govt without the help of Left, left is big blow for indian economy. Congress can not form gov without the help Left). That is why BJP has to get AP(10) + TN(10) + Kerala(5) + WB(10) + UP(35) without the support of any other alliance except in UP. Pratically BJP may get AP(3) + TN(1) + Kerala(1) + WB(1) + UP(15). I am knowing very well.
That is why i am thinking in other way. What are these
(1) Rajnikant as Deputy PM, may give 10 seats. I do not know whether it possible or not. But to accept Mayawati as PM for BJP not possible.
(2) Ashok Pradhan as Deputy PM, may give 35 seats in UP. I do not know whether it possible or not. But to accept Mayawati as PM for BJP not possible. Mayawati would not support BJP because of Muslim votes it will be suicidal for Mayawati.
(3) Or Advani should fight from AP or Kerala. This activity may give 10 seats in AP and 5 in Kerala. I do not know whether it possible or not. But to accept Mayawati as PM for BJP not possible. Mayawati would not support BJP because of Muslim votes it will be suicidal for Mayawati.
(4) Innner understanding between Left and BJP will be beneficial for both. I think more beneficial for Left. No need to show it public. I do not know whether it possible or not. But to accept Mayawati as PM for BJP not possible. Mayawati would not support BJP because of Muslim votes it will be suicidal for Mayawati.
or
Other wise after election BJP will has to accept Mayawati as PM or Deputy PM. TMC would not support BJP in centre, otherwise TMC can defeat Left in assembly election( if BJP performs very well in WB, then BJP can get support of TMC).If BJP performs very well in assembly election in AP then TDP will support BJP(In return BJP will support TDP in state assembly). TDP can not abstain at the time of confidence vote otherwise TDP will loose base in AP(BJP will say TDP is having inner understanding with Congress.). There is no credibility of DMK and AIADMK. In my opinion best way for BJP and Congress is to go for immediate election.
Last option is country without gov.
January 30, 2009 at 4:56 PM
Promoting as Dept PM would be Suicidal to BJP. He doesnt have a clout even among dalits beyond a few constituencies in western UP.
ADMK and DMK are the two Dominant parties in TN and hence cant sit together on the same side while smaller parties switch loyalties.
BSP and SP in ’93 formed a pre-poll Alliance however post July 31st ’95, they have become bitter rivals.
Left and BJP were on The same side and rallied together on four different earlier occassions : ’67,’77,’84 and ’89
it’s Only after BJP became a Dominant Force that LF all of a sudden realized BJP is communal!!!
if congress becomes weak and BSP evolves as a principle force to oppose BJP after a Decade, then who knows, congress may ally with BJP
January 30, 2009 at 9:29 PM
1. Openly Left and BJP will never come together. It will be major loss to Left in WB and Kerala.
2. B.J.P is not getting Muslim votes and dalit votes in U.P. BJP can not attract Muslim votes at any cost. How may BJP attract dalit. Before that BJP has to consolitdate Uppert cast, Gujjar, Jat and Backward Cast vote.
My question is
How may BJP attract dalit votes in U.P?
January 30, 2009 at 9:34 PM
BSP can not come in centre even after 50 years also. It is only possible when major fighting will take place within BJP and Congress. But that time Same thing may happen with BSP. Each state of India is like country. Each state politics is different from others.
January 30, 2009 at 9:49 PM
Big difference in State politics and Centre politics. Congress does not know basic of politics.
(1) Congress should not have alliance with SP( It is not realiable party).
If Congress fights less than 15 in U.P. It will be suicidal for Congress in U.P. In politics, never compromise with your vote banks and structure.
Congress is selling own blood for collecting food.
(2) BJP did not compromise with own vote bank on Amarnath Issue. Even though BJP has lost own partner in National Conference.
‘
(3) In politics, some time to sit in opposition is major part of politics.
Congress should learn.
(4) Congress should not have alliance with JDS in Karnatka. That way he can make JDS weak in Karnatka. After that there will direct fighting between BJP and Congress, In this case congress may perform good.
(5) Congress can not destroy BJP. Indira Gandhi was using this technique. This is different time, today opposition(BJP) is very-2 strong.
It has never happend in the histroy of India.
January 30, 2009 at 9:54 PM
1. BJP fielded Vinay Katiyar against Sonia Gandhi. BJP’s aim was to consolitdate own votes. We were knowing very well, at any cost he can not win. Important thing is to consolidate own votes, that BLP did.
January 30, 2009 at 10:04 PM
1. Sitting together(Congress and Left) in Centre, is suicidal for Left in WB and Kerala. Unfortunately BJP is very-2 weak( zero) in WB and Kerala
And second, most of people(42%) in Kerala are muslim and christian.
Third reason Advani should have taken control of Kerala and WB to create the base.
Because of these reasons, BJP is not able to get huge no. of seats.
January 30, 2009 at 10:08 PM
1. Down time for BSP is going to be started very soon. In next assembly election BSP will not come in to power at any cost. If fundamentals of politics are followed by all parties.
January 30, 2009 at 10:12 PM
After election in Rajasthan one person told me , B.J.P should have tried to form gov in Rajasthan. BJP did not try, this reflects BJP is following fundamentals of politics. To sit in opposition is more beneficial. These matter congress should understand.
January 31, 2009 at 12:06 AM
Well, in Rajasthan Had BJP edged congress in terms of seats, BJP could have made efforts to form The Govt.
February 6, 2009 at 5:09 AM
Good News is That Gorkhaland mukhti JanMorcha has Thrown it’s Lot behind BJP and have promised to Work for The Success of BJP’s Candidates in Doar Region of West Bengal. Particularly in Darjeeling and New Jalpaiguri GJM can decide The Fate of The Candidates.
The Hitch is GJM wouldnt accept anything short of Statehood.
http://beacononline.wordpress.com/2009/01/31/gjms-poll-carrot-has-bjp-thinking-on-gorkhaland/
February 6, 2009 at 7:58 AM
How many seats BJP may win with the help of Gorkhaland mukhti JanMorcha
February 6, 2009 at 10:59 PM
Two . Darjeeling for Sure and New JalPai Guri
in a state, where BJP has Not have a single legislature, A Win irrespective of the number will be a Morale Boast.
Further, BJP’s Win will be left’s failure.
Also, BJP Should Focus on seats where the incumbent MPs are congressi, such as Raigunj(priya Ranjan das munshi) where, Bangladeshi Infiltration Issue can come in Handy
February 7, 2009 at 11:05 AM
Good news if BJP is able to manage properly.
February 9, 2009 at 12:52 PM
Hi Raj,
could you tell me chances of BJP.
Manipur — chances of BJP
Meghalaya — PA sangma is having alliance with BJP or not and chances of BJP
Nagaland –chances of BJP or alliance
Sikkim — chances of BJP
February 12, 2009 at 3:44 AM
Manipur- BJP can win one seat, the one contested by former CM, Nepamacha Singh
In Meghalaya, if PA Sangma decides to leave one seat for BJP, then BJP has a chance of wresting the seat from congress. But, for that PA Sangma should campaign for BJP Candidate.
Nagaland, the alliance will win, it has only one seat.
Sikkim — NO Way for BJP
BJP should instead announce they are for Gorkhaland(already Gorkhaland JanMukht Morcha, which is fighting for the Hill state there has announced it’s plan of supporting BJP and work for BJP’s success) and try to Win Darjeeling and New Jalpaiguri
Also, BJP Should take full advantage of anti-incumbency against PriyaRanjan Das Munshi in Raigunj and rake up issues of Bangladeshi Infiltration and Polarize the votes from here.
In This region, LF has little influence and is considered a congress stronghold.
Therefore, BJP should first get into Congress Strongholds and wrest the seats held by congress and make full use of local anti-incumbecy as well as National Anti-Incumbency against UPA
February 12, 2009 at 7:18 AM
Hi,
SDC is with BJP or Congress.
February 12, 2009 at 7:22 AM
Hi,
NothEast list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or
change it
Inner Manipur ———— 80%
Shillong——————— 30%
Tura————————– 90%
Nagaland——————-100%(NPF)
Sikkim———————- 0%(SDF)
February 12, 2009 at 7:31 AM
Hi,
NothEast list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or
change it
Inner Manipur ———— 80%
Shillong——————— 30%
Tura————————– 90%
Nagaland——————-100%(NPF)
Sikkim———————- 0%(SDF)
Mizoram——————— 80%(MNF)
February 12, 2009 at 7:34 AM
Hi,
NothEast list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or
change it
Inner Manipur ———— 80%
Shillong——————— 30%
Tura————————– 90%
Nagaland——————-100%(NPF)
Sikkim———————- 0%(SDF)
Mizoram——————— 80%(MNF)
Tripura West—————–0%
Tripura East——————0%
February 12, 2009 at 7:39 AM
Hi
Union Territories list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or change it
Andaman & Nicobar ————- 70%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli————
Lakshadweep———————–
Chandigarh ————————-
Daman and Diu——————–
Pondicherry————————-
February 12, 2009 at 8:09 AM
Daman and Diu : BJP has 60% winning chances
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 40%
Chandigarh: 70-80%
Andaman and Nicobar Islands :70-75%
Lakshadep(JD-U):40%
Forget about Pondicherry
February 12, 2009 at 8:35 AM
Hi.
After elcetion BNP(Dadra and Nagar Haveli) may support BJP.
SDC(Sikkim) is with BJP or Congress
February 12, 2009 at 8:39 AM
Hi
Union Territories list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or change it
Andaman & Nicobar ————- 70%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli———— 50% (put 400% efforts)
Lakshadweep———————– 75%(put 400% efforts)
Chandigarh ————————- 70%-80%
Daman and Diu——————– 75%
Pondicherry————————- 0%
February 12, 2009 at 8:41 AM
Hi,
In Lakshadweep it NDA puts efforts it may win this seat by seeing last
performance. Today’s situation i do not know.
February 12, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Hi,
NothEast list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or
change it
Inner Manipur ———— 80%
Shillong——————— 30%
Tura————————– 90%
Nagaland——————-100%(NPF)
Sikkim———————- 0%(SDF)
Mizoram——————— 80%(MNF)
Tripura West—————–0%
Tripura East——————0%
Arunachal West————–100%
Arunachal East—————100%
February 12, 2009 at 3:05 PM
Hi
Union Territories list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or change it
Andaman & Nicobar ————- 70%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli———— 50% (put 400% efforts)(BNP)
Lakshadweep———————– 75%(put 400% efforts)
Chandigarh ————————- 70%-80%
Daman and Diu——————– 75%
Pondicherry————————- 0%
February 25, 2009 at 4:49 PM
Sikdar spells the bean, Uma Bharathi to return to BJP!!!!
It is g8 new for Vikas, if she contests from Aligarh
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/will-contest-from-dum-dum-says-tapan-sikdar/427922/
February 25, 2009 at 11:14 PM
In West Bengal, BJP should Focus in Rural Areas.
2008 Panchayat Elec tions have Indicated The Inclination of Rural Bengal to BJP.
Besides, Kolkatta(The Only Urban Centre in Bengal), BJP should focus extremely in interior Bengal and Particularly The Rural Area.
Remember, BJP Gained in Karnataka Largely because , in Karnataka until recently(i.e., until 2008), BJP has largely Been A Rural Party.
The same Should be The Approach of BJP in Bengal.
February 26, 2009 at 7:30 AM
In Bengal, Tapan Sikdar should be Made In Charge of BJP as He is The Only one Who is Strongly Opposed to Mamta Banerjee in Bengal BJP.
Also, Concentrate on congress Strongholds more than communist strongholds.
The North and Inner Bengal Are The Potential Zones for BJP’s Growth.
Bring in Modi in A Rural Bengal Constituency and Also in Sindhi Dominated Areas of Kolkatta.
BJP Should Seriously Consider, A Sindhi in Jadavpur, as This Area has Considerable Sindhi Population.
In The Posh Areas of Jadavpur, If The People come out in Large Numbers, BJP would Certainly Win.
February 26, 2009 at 8:15 AM
Dear Raj Bhai,
When projected PM of India is Sindhi, they don’t need local Sindhi candidate. The marwari n sindhi population is a traditional voter for BJP. Still, I feel they need to stress on the unholy alliance of Congress & Communist.
Do you know how many seats they are contesting this time. I hope they get atleast 10% vote share.
February 26, 2009 at 9:52 AM
Hi Raj,
In alliance with BJP, how many seats MDMK and DMDK can win.
February 26, 2009 at 10:02 AM
Dear Ritesh,I will Reply in South India Forum
February 26, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Hi Raj,
If TMC can win 10 seats in WB. In that case BJP should leave only 10 seats and ramaining one BJP should put candidate.In that case TMC will put candidates with BJP also.
Advantage
—————
1.BJP would able to make base in WB.
2.If BJP’s partner wins election, they will support BJP in centre.
3.BJP may win or may not win. No problem. Atleast BJP may get base.
4. Raj– My aim is only BJP should create base in WB. Winning of BJP is not important for me in WB, If Mamta gets 10 seats.
February 26, 2009 at 11:06 AM
Dear Ritesh Bhai, BJP should give A Damn to Mamta in Bengal and Move Independently.
Trinamool Would Contest A Lion’s Share.
February 26, 2009 at 11:09 AM
I agree, I just hate Mamta.
WB lost on such a gr project in Nano , coz of her.
Remember, when illegal bangladeshi immigrants were being deported from mumbai, the train was stopped by mamta & TC in West bengal.
Bloodly vote bank politics…
February 27, 2009 at 5:58 AM
NDA Election Prospects in Assam
Assumptions:
The principal assumption here is that the BJP and the AGP work out an alliance or at least a seat-sharing adjustment. Given that both of them share the Hindu vote bank – and mainly middle class Hindus at that – it is clear to me that they will hang together or will be hung separately. Assuming the AGP-BJP arrangement, I am working out my analysis based on past performances of the parties in the Lok Sabha elections and the previous (2006) assembly elections. For the moment, I have not included any data about the candidates (since they are principally unavailable) as a factor in determining the outcomes of the elections. Therefore, I will focus on the mainly on the AGP+BJP votes, assuming that they can transfer their votes effectively to each other. While the BJP can probably transfer its votes to the AGP, it is not certain to me that the other way holds true as well. However, assuming that the bulk of their votes do transfer, I have done a AGP+BJP vote and checked how comfortable that arithmetic would be for the duo. I have considered three previous Lok Sabha elections (1998, 1999, 2004) and one assembly election (2006) to check how the combination might fare. Further, the Congress has been ruling for nearly ten years. Anti-incumbency factor will work against it.
Update: I have been reading reports that the AGP and the BJP have indeed reached a seat sharing agreement for 13 of the 14 seats in Assam. The BJP seems to be contesting Karimganj, Silchar, Diphu, Dhubri, Nowgong, Mangaldoi, and Jorhat, while the AGP will contest Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Tezpur, Kaliabor, Dibrugarh and Lakhimpur. The fate of the Gauhati seat hangs in the balance. Well, good for the NDA. I am glad they managed to work out this bit.
End update
For convenience sake, I will be referring to the AGP-BJP arrangement as the NDA, (although the AGP has not formally joined the NDA).
There are three principal formations in the fray – the NDA, the Congress and the AUDF. How the AUDF will react will determine the fate of the other two, as far as I can see.
Karimganj
Spread across the districts of Hailakandi and Karimganj in the Barak valley, this is a seat where Muslims are a decisive factor one way or the other (both districts have Muslim populations in the late 40s or early 50 percent). This constituency usually features a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. The AGP has a reasonable, but not a great presence in region – it has never won the seat in the three elections, nor has it come second in any of the previous three elections, and nor does it control any of the assembly segments that fall in the area.
In the past three elections, the Congress has won all the three times, but the margin has usually been small enough, so the AGP votes, if they transfer to the BJP, might just pip the BJP past the post. The previous Lok Sabha performances indicate that while the BJP performance has been impressive, there is a worrying factor that the margin between the Congress and the BJP has been widening. In 1998, the difference between the two parties was a mere 10,000 votes. In 1999, the margin had increased to 35,000. In 2004, it was more than 90,000. The good news for the NDA is that in the two of the three elections that the AGP contested there, the AGP vote has been sufficient enough to push the BJP past the Congress. However, the NDA total vote is coming down steadily in comparison to the Congress vote (both as percentages and in absolute terms). In 1998, the NDA total vote would have seen it sail past the Congress comfortably. The 2004 vote of the two parties combined, on the other hand, would see barely be enough to beat the Congress vote. As things stand, the balance would be on a knife edge.
In the last assembly elections, of the eight constituencies, the BJP won three, the AUDF two and the Congress two, with the last taken by an independent. But what is curious is that the AUDF ended up taking a large part of the Muslim vote (traditional for the Congress), and the Congress was pushed to third place in four constituencies and fourth place in one. If this happens, then the Congress might be in trouble. Even so, it is important to emphasise that the combined NDA vote and the Congress vote were nearly on par, despite the AUDF taking a large bite out of the Congress vote. This implies that the NDA has its work cut out for it. The one solace for the BJP is that it has always done better in National elections than in State assemblies.
Prediction: Toss up. If the Muslim vote splits between the Congress and the AUDF, the NDA could get it. Otherwise, it will remain with the Congress.
Silchar:
Another seat in the Barak valley, this seat spans the Cachar district. This is another seat where the fight is directly between the Congress and the BJP. The AGP does not seem to have much of a presence in the seat – it has never contested the seat in the last three Lok Sabha elections, preferring to leave it to its alliance partners in the Third Front (or not contest at all). This is a seat where the BJP has won once (1998, Kabindra Purkayastha) and the Congress twice (1999, 2004, Santosh Mohan Deb). The BJP pipped the Congress to the post in 1998, and the Congress did the same in 2004. Only in 1999 did the Congress win by a comfortable majority. The Congress candidate has been representing the constituency for 10 years, so anti-incumbency might work against it. Besides, this was before the appearance of the AUDF, so that is one more factor in favour of the NDA.
The assembly elections were a close affair. Of the seven assembly segments in the constituency, the Congress represents four, the BJP two and the AUDF one. The total NDA vote is about 15,000 less than the total Congress vote, but direct correlations between the assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections don’t work. The AUDF was a factor of some significance in only two of the seven assembly segments, so it is not as strong here as it was in the Karimganj constituency. It might be able to play spoiler though, in the event of it fielding a strong Muslim candidate.
Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA: However, the NDA has its work cut out for it here. It needs to put its act together. If it manages to do so, it will win.
Diphu (Autonomous District):
An expansive seat spanning two large districts (Karbi Anglong, and Diphu), this is a place where neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much presence. It has been won twice by Dr. Joyanta Rongpi (from the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC), and the CPI (ML). In 2004, it was won by the Congress. The BJP has contested twice from here, and has been in the fourth spot both the times, winning between 12 and 15 percent of the vote. The AGP has never contested from the seat.
Of the five assembly segments, the Congress has four, and the ASDC one.
Prediction: This seat is going to witness a direct fight between the Congress and the ASDC, or a triangular fight among the Congress, the CPI (ML) and the ASDC. The NDA does not have much of a chance here.
Dhubri:
This seat is in lower Assam, spanning the district of Dhubri and part of Goalpara. Both districts a re Muslim majority districts, and the Congress has been winning here consecutively in the last three Lok Sabha elections. Both AGP and the BJP have their bases in the seat, but their presence is not very strong. The Congress margin of victory was more than 1 lakh in two of the three previous elections.and never has the combined NDA vote surpassed the Congress vote.
The assembly elections tell an interesting story. The AUDF has risen phenomenally in this constituency, making the contest interesting this time. Of the ten assembly segments in the seat, the AUDF holds three, the Congress two, independents hold two, the NCP, the Loko Sanmilon and the AGP one apiece. The situation here is complicated by the considerable presence of the NCP, which won one and put up a strong challenge in three more. The total votes of the Congress, the AUDF and the NDA add up to equal numbers nearly. Does this mean that the NDA has a serious chance of upstaging the Congress and/or the AUDF? It is hard to say, but the contest is likely to be triangular here, with the Congress, the AUDF and the NDA all having serious presence.
However, of the ten MLAs, eight are Muslims and it would be foolish to believe that they would help the NDA in any way. They might even ensure against splits by resorting to tactical voting.
Prediction: Likely to remain with the Congress. It all depends on how much the AUDF can get the Muslim vote. The NCP, while a serious challenger in the Assembly, might not be able to do as well in the Lok Sabha. The only way for the NDA to get the seat is to pray that the Muslim vote splits nearly equally between the Congress and the AUDF (and possibly even the NCP), while it gets the entire Hindu vote. Not a very likely scenario.
Kokrajhar:
A large constituency in the north west of Assam, it spans all of Kokrajhar district, and parts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is the home turf of the independent candidate, Bwiswamuthiary. He has been winning consecutively since the last three elections.Neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much of a chance here. They were in the fourth, or fifth spots when the contested and they have not contested in two of the three elections from here. The Congress does not seem in any better situation – their performance is nothing to write home about either.
Of the ten assembly segments, eight are held by independents, and one apiece by the CPI (ML) and the AGP.
Prediction: None of the three groups seem to matter here. Overall, not much chance for the NDA from this constituency.
Barpeta:
Another constituency in lower Assam, it spans across the three districts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. Another constituency where the Muslim factor looms large, even though they are a majority only in Barpeta district. This is the first constituency (of those surveyed thus far) where both the BJP and the AGP have a decent base. In the three previous, the Congress has won all the three times, and all times with fairly comfortable margins (the smallest margin is around 70,000). However, the margin of victory has been steadily coming down. Further, the AGP had not contested this seat twice (preferring to leave it to the CPI(M)), and when it did contest, it put up a very impressive performance. The combined NDA vote in the last elections was comfortably larger than the Congress vote.
Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP holds five, the Congress four and an independent one. The AUDF is a considerable factor even here, and can only work to the detriment of the Congress. The cumulative NDA vote in the constituency is comfortably greater than the Congress vote.
Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA. They need to work well together to make sure that they don’t fritter away that advantage. If all remains well, and the combine works properly, the NDA should get the seat.
Gauhati:
The capital of Assam. The heart of the state. The constituency covers most of Kamrup, and parts of Nalbari and Goalpara. This is a place where the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have strong bases. The Congress has won the constituency twice and the BJP once. However, it has been the AGP and the BJP ruining each other’s chances when the Congress won. The combined AGP BJP vote should see it comfortably home, and their combined vote has always been more than one lakh more than the Congress vote.
Of the ten segments in the constituency, the AGP controls four, the Congress five and an independent one. However, the BJP and AGP vote combined far outclass the Congress vote. While the BJP didd not win any seats in the assembly in the constituency, it has a strong base all over the constituency. It can easily contribute to a NDA victory. The AUDF is a factor of some importance (but not much) and can only contribute to the detriment of the Congress.
Prediction: Strong advantage to the NDA. Unless they screw up royally, they should win this seat easily, whether it is the BJP which is contesting the constituency, or the AGP.
Mangaldoi:
Spread over parts of Nalbari and Kamrup and the entirety of Darrang, this is another constituency in the heart of Assam. Of the three previous elections, the Congress has won twice (1998, 1999) and the BJP once (2004). However, this is another seat where the combined AGP-BJP vote has almost always surpassed the Congress vote. The Congress, the BJP and the AGP all have a strong base in the region. But any two combined could easily outclass the third. The NDA should be able to achieve this. However, the anti-incumbency factor might work against the BJP, but there is talk that Narayan Borkotoki, the sitting MP, might be replaced.
The assembly results in the previous elections are a little strange. Of the ten assembly segments, six are held by independents, and two apiece by the Congress and the AGP. The BJP put up a reasonable performance in the area in the last assembly elections, but failed to open its account. But together, the cumulative NDA vote is far greater than the Congress vote. It is also unlikely that independents will fare equally well in the Lok Sabha elections. The AUDF is a factor of some consideration here, but again, not very powerful. However, its performance seems to be equally good all over the constituency.
Predictions: Strong advantage NDA. As in Gauhati, unless they screw up royally, they should win this seat.
Tezpur:
Covering the entire district of Sonitpur, and parts of Nagaon and Lakhimpur, this is another district in north Central Assam. The Muslim vote is of some significance in the Nagaon district. As in the previous cases, all three parties have a strong presence in the area. The Congress has won all three Lok Sabha elections, but the combined AGP-BJP vote should easily propel it past the Congress.
Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds four, the AGP three, and the BJP two. The combined AGP-BJP vote is well above the Congress vote. Add to that, the AUDF will play spoilsport for the Congress and the latter’s fate may well be sealed.
Prediction: Strong advantage NDA. As in the previous two cases, unless they do something really stupid, they should win this one.
Nowgong:
The constituency covers the Marigaon constituency and parts of Nagaon. This is another constituency in central Assam and all the three have strong bases here, along with the AUDF. Nagaon has a strong presence of Muslims, so the AUDF has a committed base here. Of the three previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has won twice, and the Congress once. The combined BJP AGP vote should outstrip the Congress vote hands down, since it has always done so. However, the BJP candidate, Rajen Gohain, has been representing the constituency for ten years, so he might face some anti-incumbency.
The assembly results present an interesting picture. Of the nine assembly segments, the AUDF and the Congress have three apiece, while the AGP has two and the BJP one. However, in most segments, the combined NDA vote is greater than the vote share of either of the other two competitors.
Prediction: Slight advantage NDA. If they can retain their base, they should be able to ensure a victory. The split of Muslim votes can only aid them, to whatever extent it occurs.
Kaliabor:
Covering Golaghat and parts of Jorhat, this is a constituency bordering Nagaland, and the home turf of the Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi. The Congress has won all the three previous Lok Sabha elections. In the first two, the margin of victory was greater than the combined votes of the BJP and the AGP, but in 2004 elections, the NDA vote was greater than the Congress vote. Further, the victory margin of the Congress has been steadily declining and the Gogois may find that their home turf is no longer as secure as they thought it might be. This area reasonable presence of all the four principal participants – the AGP, the BJP, the Congress and the AUDF. The latter is present in only parts of the constituency.
Of the ten assembly segments, the AGP holds five, the Congress three and the AUDF and an independent one apiece. The Congress vote is surpassed by the NDA vote.
Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA, but this is the backyard of the Chief Minister is not easily wrested. If the NDA choose a good opponent to the Congress, they might well succeed.
Jorhat:
Covering parts of Jorhat district and all of Sibsagar district, this is the constituency from where the present Chief Minister has been elected (he represents Titabar, which falls in Jorhat constituency). This constituency should witness a close fight. The AUDF is mostly irrelevant here, so it is going to be a straight fight between the NDA and the Congress. The AGP and the BJP, along with the Congress have their bases. The Congress has been winning since the previous three elections, and the Congress vote share has been nearly equal to or greater than the combined votes of the other two. On the other hand, the Congress might pay for being the incumbent..
Of the ten assembly segments, the Congress holds seven, the AGP one, the CPI one, and an independent one. In many segments, the fight was directly between the Congress and the AGP, with the BJP being a distant third. However, the BJP usually held enough votes to tip the balance in favour of the AGP.
Prediction: Toss up. In fact, the Congress might even hold a small advantage. It is going to be an intense fight. NDA had better work together and pray that the anti-incumbency factor aids them.
Dibrugarh:
Covering most of Dibrugarh district and half of Tinsukhia, this is a constituency in upper Assam. All three parties – the Congress, the AGP and the BJP are strong here. The AUDF is irrelevant here. The Congress has won twice, and the AGP once. In the last election, the Congress was pushed to the third place. The combined NDA vote share has almost always surpassed the Congress vote share. Add to that, the anti-incumbency factor that the Congress must be facing and it is a recipe for disaster for the Congress. However, the only worrisome factor is that the AGP won the seat last time over, and they need to take precautions against anti-incumbency working against their candidate.
Of the nine assembly segments in this region, all three parties did well. The Congress holds six of the nine assembly segments, the BJP two, and the AGP one. The combined NDA vote is almost always above the Congress vote.
Prediction: Strong advantage NDA. They have all the advantages they can get here. They just need to capitalise on it.
Lakhimpur:
An expansive constituency spread over five districts of Lakhimpur, Tinsukhia, Jorhat, Dibrugarh and all of Dhemaji, this is a varied constituency. The Congress won here in ’98 and ’99, but the seat was snatched from it by the AGP. All three – the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have a good following here. The AUDF is completely irrelevant here. Two anti-incumbencies are at work. The one against the state, which will work against the Congress and one against the AGP, which had won the seat last time. The combined AGP BJP vote here has always been comfortably greater than the Congress vote share, even at the peak of the Congress wave in 1998.
Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds six, and independents three. However, the Congress victory is attributable to the BJP and the AGP cutting into each other’s votes. The combined NDA vote is greater than the Congress votes in five of the nine constituencies. Further, independents do not count in Lok Sabha all that much.
Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA. They just need to play their cards right and convert their advantage to a victory.
Overall predictions:
Sure NDA seats (4) – Gauhati, Mangaldoi, Tezpur, Dibrugarh;
Likely NDA seats (5) – Silchar, Barpeta, Nowgong, Kaliabor, Lakhimpur
Toss up seats (2) – Karimganj, Jorhat
Unlikely, but possible NDA seats (1) – Dhubri
Very little chance for NDA seats (2) – Diphu, Kokrajhar
February 27, 2009 at 8:40 AM
well, Dear Maidros, Except for Guwahati Seat, BJP-AGP Alliance has been Finalized.
BJP Will fight in 7, AGP in 6
The Talks for Guwahati are in progress.
Most likely, BJP to get Guwahati Seat.
February 27, 2009 at 10:28 AM
Dear Maidros,
I appreciate your so well done fact based scientific and informative analysis on assam. It has educated me a lot. I always look for micro analysis because I firmly believe it is more important to get highest no. of votes among all candidates in maximum of seats rather getting high vote % at state level.
February 27, 2009 at 10:33 AM
RJD has already started polarisation!!!
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/Patna/MLA-was-not-called-Pakistani-rules-Speaker/articleshow/4196527.cms
February 27, 2009 at 10:35 AM
Vikasji,
Please give the detail analysis of seats around Lucknow.
BJP yesterday has announced candidates for some more seats in UP, you take on the same?
March 2, 2009 at 9:49 AM
Another Good News : trinamool congress and congress have formalized alliance.
This would Only Benefit BJP in Regions where BJP has a Stake in Bengal since the communal muslim vote would split between upa and left.
March 2, 2009 at 4:29 PM
Bishnupur ByPoll. CPM lost Badly despite fielding a muslim candidate
BJP it seems worked for Trinamool’s success here.
March 6, 2009 at 6:45 PM
Tapan Sikdar joins BJP, will contest from Dum Dum. Now looks like BJP will be able to open its account in WB.
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/politics/former-central-minister-sikdar-rejoins-bjp_100163540.html
March 6, 2009 at 7:09 PM
Am Concerned about Orissa.
There are reports That BJP and BJD Alliance is on Rocks!!!
if BJD snaps Ties with BJP congress would sweep there
March 6, 2009 at 8:12 PM
I heard the latest , BJP wants to contest 11 seats ( Up 2 ) and in return will leave 25 assemby seats for BJD which it contested last time.
I think that should do as, BJD is keen on gaining strength in state, where as BJP is more keep on National Politics..
March 6, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Overconfidence can kill you, it proved so for Lalu in 2005 assembly elections.
Navin Patnaik thinks he can win elections alone. BJP should not compromise, why should it, it is not going with bowl. If they don’t agree , it is better to hurt them, rather than to oblize.
If they let me has his say, tommorow JD(U) will come , next day AGP will come and then every tom dick and harry will threaten them.
They can swap seats LS/Assembly at the max, but otherwise no compromise.
It is good the way BJP has responded to JD(U) threat by giving it back to them,
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/politics/bjp-jd-u-differ-over-seat-sharing-in-bihar-lead_100163587.html
March 6, 2009 at 9:47 PM
BJP Planning a “Nano” Campaign, once it rolls out on March 23 rd.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Move-over-rath-LK-wants-a-Nano-ride/articleshow/4231703.cms
They should bring this to West Bengal and rub salt to the wounds of TC & CPM. I would love that.
March 7, 2009 at 7:24 AM
BJD will win easily if it doesn’t have an alliance with BJP.BJP will loose so badly if things go like this in Orissa….Congress is unable to get more than 30% of the seats this time also.
March 7, 2009 at 7:26 AM
West Bengal will witness a keen direct fight between LF and TC-Congress alliance. BJP may not get more than 10 % of the votes even in seats like Malda and Dum dum. LF will loose atleast 10 seats this time.
March 7, 2009 at 7:27 AM
BJP-AGP alliance will win almost all seats in Assam. Congress is not in a position to compete against this strong alliance.
March 7, 2009 at 11:36 AM
Soma, BJD would lose badly and leave Orissa in the hands of christian congress if it snaps alliance with BJP
Bengal, BJP may Not be a Force, but for sure, will show it’s presence in some seats
March 7, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Hi,
I have written many times, BJP’alliances are alive because of BJP.
BJD,AGP,INLD,JU , SS, AD can not survive without BJP. It will be loss to BJP but it would be temp loss.
There are two pole of indian politics BJP and Congress. Choose one out of
these.Small parties can not make fool public longer.
March 8, 2009 at 12:07 AM
Big setback to BJP in Orissa
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/setback-for-bjp-ally-bjd-dumps-it-in-orissa/87095-37.html
But I strongly feel BJD will also suffer
March 8, 2009 at 1:48 AM
BJD proved it is the strongest party in Orissa in the latest Municipal and panchayat elections. BJD will easily get majority of the seats without any help from BJP. BJP may get 3-4 parliamentary seats from Orissa this time.
March 8, 2009 at 3:05 AM
When the BJP and BJD does not hang togeather they will hang seperately. Just look at the 1996 LS elections, INC got 45% of the vote and captured 16 out of 21 seats. In 2004 INC got 40.5% of the vote and only took 2 of 21 seats. With BJD in power for two terms, anti-incumbency will weight down BJD and help INC. I think Orissia will see in 2009 a repeat of the 1996 LS election. One way BJD can help itself is to join the Third front and form an alliance with the Left and take some of the anti-BJP vote for itself. In theory this seems possible but on the ground level it is hard to make this argument given the 10 years of alliance between BJD and BJP.
March 8, 2009 at 8:11 AM
Hi Soma,
BJD is child in politics. He will be major sufferer. I want make one thing very clear, Congress is at all not weak in Orissa. BJD’s future will be like JD secular.
Without the help of BJP or Congress, no party in India can survive.
March 8, 2009 at 8:15 AM
Hi Soma,
It is not TN, Where BJP can not do anything. It is orissa. BJP is equally powerfull. If you see Assam,Haryana where BJP is equally powerfull. They fought election(Assam,Haryana) separately. Both did not get anything. This time, they will perform very well.
March 8, 2009 at 9:43 AM
I disagree with You All.
In Orissa, BJP is Not A Strong Force. BJD Will lose if it joins Third Front.
The Evangelicals are Extremely Glad as congress would form government with christian gomang as CM of Orissa.
BJP would only be A Distant third with Not more than 18% of The Popular vote in Orissa
March 8, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Now, I feel, BJP Should Forge An Alliance with BJD for may 2009 Polls
otherwise, BJD Cadres would work against BJP Candidates as it Happened in 2004 in AP
March 8, 2009 at 10:02 AM
In the mean time, TC gets big pie of 25 seats in WB,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Congress-may-concede-25-seats-to-Trinamool-in-Bengal-/articleshow/4239620.cms
March 8, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Hi Raj,
Do not compromise with base. Election will take place again in june or july. Neither BJP nor congress will support third front. That time BJP will perfom well in WB,TN,AP,Kerala.
March 8, 2009 at 10:34 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP should field candidates in all seats of TN,AP,WB,Kerala.It will create base for BJP.
Election will take place again in june or july.
That time BJP will perfom well in WB,TN,AP,Kerala.
March 8, 2009 at 10:36 AM
I Meant BJP Should Not forge an Alliance with BJD
March 8, 2009 at 10:36 AM
Hi Raj,
Congress will more than 15 seats in Orissa. No problem.
March 8, 2009 at 10:36 AM
Ritesh Bhai, This Election is Not about Creating Base. It’s A Must Win Situation for BJP/NDA
March 8, 2009 at 10:38 AM
Hi Raj,
If alliance is not following Alliance Dharma. then no need to have alliance.
BJP supported BJD up to 11 years. BJP did not create any problem for BJD. BJD is going to give 5 seats to BJP, It is a insult of BJP.
March 8, 2009 at 10:40 AM
Hi Raj,
Congress can not form gov in centre. Again election will take place in june or july. That time BJP will form gov in Centre easily.
March 8, 2009 at 10:40 AM
Kerala,TN,AP,Orissa and WB are The states BJP will Find Hard.
of these, BJP can Win some seats in AP(About 5) and in the remaining 4, viz WB,Orissa,TN,Kerala too BJP should together Win about 7 seats atleast.
of The 165 Lok Sabha Seats in AP,WB,TN,Orissa and Kerala, BJP Should Manage to win about 15 Seats All by Itself.
The Erstehile Third Front Parties and UPA Allies like Mamata have potential of winning 60-70 Lok Sabha Seats, who would Probably have to support NDA post elections
March 8, 2009 at 10:51 AM
Hi Raj,
Option A
=======
For the support of Congress from outside.
1. SP and BSP can not sit together.
2. Mamata and left can not sit together.
3. TDP+ TRS and Congress can not sit together.
4. DMK and AIADMK can not sit together.
In telangana BJP will perform well more than 7 seats.
Option B
======
Neither BJP nor congress will support third front
Ootion C
=======
NDA can form gov with the help of TMC,TDP+TRS, AIADMK.
There is no future for BJD in Indian politcs.
March 8, 2009 at 10:52 AM
Hi Raj,
Only option C is possible.
March 8, 2009 at 10:56 AM
Hi Raj,
I have seen wave in favour of BJP in Telangana.
March 8, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Hi Raj,
In may election BJP will not perform well in AP,WB,Kerala,TN. But in
Jun-july election BJP will perform well in AP,WB,Kerala,TN( IF BJP goes alone). BJD will loose state gov election in Orissa. Congress will come in power. If BJD takes BJP’s help(after election), in that case chiefminister will be from BJP for 2.5 years. After that NAveen will be for 2.5 years (As a punishment for BJD)
March 8, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Hi Raj,
Congress is not enemy of BJP, only allinace partners are enemies.
March 8, 2009 at 11:01 AM
Hi Raj,
Now BJP may take hindutva in Orissa.
March 8, 2009 at 11:13 AM
BJD may go with left
March 8, 2009 at 11:24 AM
Ritesh Bhai, Yes, BJP will Win 5 Seats in Telangana and 2 in AP
but, it is the other states that is of concern.
BJP in Kerala, TN,Orissa and WB put together can Win Only about 10 seats Maximum since They are alone in All These States
The Possitive is, BJP is Improving in North
March 8, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Hi Raj,
7 in Telangana 2 in AP
March 8, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Hi Raj,
Not in MAy election , but in june election BJP will perform well in AP,TN,WB,Kerala(more than 35)
March 8, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Dont Anticipate An Immediate Election Dear. That is Not possible
March 8, 2009 at 12:09 PM
no mid term election only immediate election.
March 8, 2009 at 12:12 PM
no mid term election only immediate election. or BJP
March 8, 2009 at 12:23 PM
Both Congress & BJP are getting tough with alliance partners,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Prove-loyalty-BJP-and-Cong-tell-allies/articleshow/4239533.cms
I think BJP did correct by not bending to BJD, irrespective whether they win or loose in next assembly/LS election in orissa.
Otherwise next day there would be a queue of other alliance partners demanding more seats. I think BJP should forget about forming govt at center and try to make inroads into WB, Kerala & TN. They will be king maker in AP this time. With 30-40 seats they’ll decide who forms the govt.
I really want to see Chandrababu Naidu begging for their support.
BJP is not doing strong campaign in TN & WB, cos it doesn’t want to upset AIADMK & TC. I really wish they didn’t care about short term results and attack these parties as well.
I had recommended in my suggestions to Mr Jaitley to tell people that Congress, TC & Communist will be together, but Mr Advani didn’t mention the name of TC.
BJP is themselves to blame for all this. At them peak of their growth they got into alliances with Shiv sena , BJD, TDP etc , which stopped their growth in these states. If they had gone ahead without desire for power, they would have been a powerful force of their own in Orissa, AP & Maharastra.
Look at Karnataka, eventually they did it. Had they gotten into alliance with JD etc , they would have been stuck there for life.
Anyway, they should be aggressive now. Don’t have any alliance in Orissa & AP. In 10 years, they’ll be under BJP rule, I bet.
March 8, 2009 at 12:29 PM
Hi AK
I agree with you.
March 8, 2009 at 12:38 PM
Hi AK,
BJP should field all candidates.
BJP should not use any wrong word against TMC,TDP and PRP.
1. That way BJP will follow coaliation Dharma(Even though they are not in coalition).
2. TDP voters and TMC voters will support BJP on those seats in which
TMC and TDP candidates are not fighting.
March 8, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Dear Ritesh,
I disagree on that. When CB Naidu says publicly that he won’t support BJP, why should BJP not expose him and tell people of Telengana that he opposed the creation of state all the time NDA was ruling.
TMC is opportunist , even if you slap mamta in public, she’ll come back if she sees an opportunity. He has walked in and out of coalition any time, give me one reason BJP should not ridicule her. Simply to prevent Communist for getting more seats.
I hate communist, but I respect them. Coz they stand for what they believe. So unless BJP kicks butt of TC & TDP , it will never rise in WB & AP, as today they are the principle opposition.
BSP could rise in UP after attacking both SP & BJP, not just SP.
That Naveen bastard is lucky that his 5 yr state rule is getting over simultaneously. Had it been in 2nd / 3rd year, he wouldn’t have opened his mouth. I just want BJP to be kingmaker in Orissa . keeping fingers crossed .
March 8, 2009 at 12:57 PM
Hi AK,
Oppose TMC and TDP in a intelligent manner. When BJP will get good time, then use abusive language against TMC and TDP.
March 8, 2009 at 12:59 PM
in Most likely, it is PRP and TRS Voters who would Vote for BJP particularly in Seats where Commies are fighting in Grand Alliance as TRS has decided to work Against Communists who are dead against Telangana
Mamata will have a wait and watch policy, if Mamata gets only 7-8 Parliamentary seats, she would Joinm NDA, if Trinamool-congress combine wins over 18 Lok Sabha Seats, she would maintain her alliance with congress eyeing 2011 Assembly Elections
March 8, 2009 at 1:02 PM
Well in Orissa, Congress has a votebase of 35% and BJD about 32% with JMM and Communists and NCP, Both BJD Led Third Front in Orissa and Congress would be at Neck and Neck
BJP at the most has 12-14% of VoteBank eve in The Improved Scenario
March 8, 2009 at 1:04 PM
Dear AK and Ritesh, BJP is Opposing both PRP and TDP in AndhraPradesh. And it’s Good BJP is going Alone and is Coming up as a Force particularly in The Telangana Region of AP
March 8, 2009 at 1:05 PM
Hi Raj,
I am 100% agree with you. Mamta may be neutral.
In telangana TRS(If TRS is not going to fight on that seat)and TDP(If TDP is not going to fight on that seat) will cast vote in favour of BJP.
March 8, 2009 at 1:05 PM
I am getting feeling who so ever makes govt, it will be highly unstable because of people like Jayalalitha, Mamta etc..
Dear Raj, What it your prediction of AP assembly election. I know it is tough to predict. I am only worried if Congress reaches half way mark of 147, then BJP gains are less valuable… I don’t think Grand Alliance will reach that number, because of PRP factor.
March 8, 2009 at 1:06 PM
BJP is about to get anywhere between 35-40 Assembly Segments in AndhraPradesh and win 7(5+2) or Even 10(7+3) if Momentum Picks up or atleast if the current Enthusiasm prevails
March 8, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Hi Raj,
Oppose but do not use dirty language against TDP.
March 8, 2009 at 1:10 PM
For Those Who Think, BJP is soft on Opposition Parties in AP :
Addressing the executive committee meet at Ashoka Convention Centre, BJP state unit president Bandaru Dattatreya said that his party was committed to the formation of a separate state and for categorisation of SC reservations.
Launching a scathing attack on the TRS, the BJP leader alleged that KCR was doing more harm to the region than the late chief minister M Channa Reddy. “KCR is selling away the Telangana sentiment to the united Andhra parties with the single objective of coming to power and enjoying ministerial berths,” he alleged.
Dattatreya also found fault with the Prajarajyam party for not aligning with the BJP and added that the PRP was going directionless and was proving of no use.
He added that the TDP was describing the BJP as anti-secular, but, in fact, N Chandrababu Naidu should be thankful to the BJP as he came to power for the second term only by riding on the charisma of Vajpayee.
March 8, 2009 at 1:11 PM
What about Congress , TDP-TRS & PRP , any idea..
I think PRP might end up 30-40 (All coastal), Congress 110 – 120 , BJP 30 (at least) , TDP-TRS Alliance 110 – 120
March 8, 2009 at 1:11 PM
I Can Say With Pride and Confidence That BJP is The Only Party That has Ne ver indulged in Dirty Comments
March 8, 2009 at 1:11 PM
BJP should do big promises in AP like PRP,TRS,TDP.
1. give 24 hours free electricity if f BJP comes in power alone.
March 8, 2009 at 1:12 PM
I will Post in South India Forum
March 8, 2009 at 1:15 PM
NO Ritesh Bhai.
BJP Should Not do That Mistake.
It is A Gimmick. BJP has all been opposing such tactics.
BJP has however Included : Telangana in 100 Days as well as SC Categorization into ABCD within 100 days of forming Government.
The SC Categorization is currently A Hot Topic in AP.
The Madiga Community would Vote for BJP this time(atleast A Section)
also, BJP should field Madiga Leaders of SC Community in Reserved Seats.
I personally, also Advice BJP to Field A Lambadi Woman from Adilabad/Mehbubabad(Both ST) consitituencies
March 8, 2009 at 1:42 PM
Hi,
BJP should annouce own CM in AP and Telangana.
March 8, 2009 at 1:57 PM
Hi,
If BJP wants to have alliance in AP,TN,WB and Kerala, it should be 50-50.
Ohterwise it better to go alone.
March 8, 2009 at 2:01 PM
Hi,
BJP should not have any alliance in Telangana.
March 8, 2009 at 2:02 PM
Dear Friends,
Don’t get worried, it is the BJD who is to blame for what has happened in Orissa and BJP should know it well that if BJP want to come to power in any state then first it has to a create base over there and develop the habit of sitting in the opposition. BJP is not a pushover in Orissa like marginal player CPM &NCP JMM and it has 21% popular support in Tribal & certain pocket of Coastal area. We should also know that it will be three corner contest in the Orison with BJP getting a golden opportunity to grow it support base in BJD terrain and become all Orissa party.
We should also not forget the BJP has never fought election in all MLA/MP constituencies in Orissa which will provide an opportunity to create a base across the state.
I know BJP & BJD will be both will the losers and we know that Navin PatNaik is being befooled by the his close confident based on the survey report done by so called Psephologist that BJD will come to power on its own.
You all should know that Navin Patnaik is definitely a clean and honest person but he can’t even speak the language of state which he is ruling and his actions and decisions are based on feed back of some selfish close confidant and they want to finish him politically.
You will see that he may or may not win the assembly election but what he will loose the trust which value more for the people and BJP should try to exploit the emotion of being cheated by BJD for backstabbing and breaching the Alliance Dharma .
BJP should be prepared to fight and sit in the opposition and snatch the space from Congress then you see real results.
Orissa is state with 92-95% Hindu population like TN, AP will become the most fertile ground for the growth of the BJP.
Here what I see repeat of 1996 and even worst political uncertainties emerging out of the GE 2009 which will not be good for the Country and Economy which is already in dolrum and but we can’t avoid it and mid term election looks looming large as this time neither INC nor BJP will support the Third Front govt as the party supporting and withdrawing it later on will finish politically .
This will push for the emergence of Bipolar Politics in India.
March 8, 2009 at 2:06 PM
Hi Anil,
I am 100% agree with you.
March 8, 2009 at 2:09 PM
Hi,
BJP should try to fight on 75% to 100% in all states. It will take time, today it is not possible.
March 8, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Hi.,
I think someone is giving wrong advice to Naveen. His position will be like
JD(secular)
March 8, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Hi Anil,
I feel, again election will take place on june-july.
March 8, 2009 at 2:19 PM
In States where BJP Doesnt have An Alliance, Field Candidates in All Lok Sabha and Asembly Seats and concentrate on Winnable Seats more. This way both The base as well as Seats will Increase for BJP
March 8, 2009 at 8:57 PM
I was going through Offstump Analysis and Discussion on BJP-BJD Alliance Breakdown and some are still optimistic that BJP Can still win 3-4 Lok Sabha Seats in The Tribal Region
March 8, 2009 at 9:01 PM
well, Dear Friends, it seems Naveen Patnaik has said that BJP would be given only 5 lok Sabha Seats and 35 Assembly segments.
It is a clear way of saying ” We are Ending our Alliance”
It’s Good BJP didnt compromise.
Naveen Patnaik is delivering Orissa to christian congress
he is banking os some stupid survey that said ” BJD would Win All alone because of Naveen’s clean image”, probably, that survey was done by a congressi
March 8, 2009 at 9:45 PM
Potential Seats BJP can Win in Orissa on It’s Own : Mayurbanj(ST),Keonjhar(ST),Sundargarh(ST),Deogarh,,Bolangir, Nawrangpur(ST)
of These 6 BJP should be able to Win 3-4 if Focussed Well.
Take The Attack on The Opposition camp.
March 8, 2009 at 9:47 PM
Jual Oram, Dharmendra Pradhan and Ananta Nayak are The Most Winnable Candidates from Orissa for BJP
March 9, 2009 at 1:26 AM
now BJP has got a solid opportunity to rule Orissa. history repeats itself
janata dal collapsed in Gujarat and Gujarat is BJP bastion
Janata Dal collapsed in Karnataka and now Karnataka is also a BJP bastion
Now Biju janata dal which too is a faction of janata dal is going to fall and so will janata dal in bihar if nitish kumar is foolish but nitish will ne with bjp ..
BJP should not worry..
March 9, 2009 at 9:13 AM
BJP – JD(U) Alliance looks to be ok,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Patna/BJP-JDU-alliance-wont-go-Orissa-way-Nitish–/articleshow/4242130.cms
If you look into actual seats,
BJP has made up the loss of BJD alliance of 21 seats by, tieing up with
- AGP (14seats)
- INLD (10 seats)
In both these states BJP gained from Regional partner breaking alliance,
In 1999 ,
Assam BJP share was 5/14, now it is 8/14
In Harayana BJP share was 5/10 now it is 6/14
I wish BJP emerge as stronger state player in next few yeas in Orissa.
March 9, 2009 at 9:16 AM
Hi AK,
BJP is other pole of indian politics. I am not able to understand, How has Naveen done mistake.
March 9, 2009 at 10:27 AM
Why the breakup of alliance with BJD is in the interest of BJP:
Three important things that came out in the recent surveys in Orissa are
1) Naveen’s Popularity was at a all time high
2) Lk Advani’s approval as the PM was the highest in Orissa among all states (90%)
3) Approval of state unit of the BJP in the state was lowest.
Now if BJP was contesting as per the previous arrangements then it would have handed over more seats to Congress than anyone else. If the new formula as suggested by the BJD was taken, BJP would have been made an insignificant player in the state politics.
So in the present scenario, the party would have a huge sympathy wave atleast in the Loksabha polls. People like Darmesh pradhan and Oram will be able to capitalize on the same BJP which would have won only 4 seats out of the 9 seats if in alliance would now win 6 seats out of 21. The defeat of people like Sameer Dey would ensure that BJP would get an opportunity to clean the state politics.
This is wishful thinking, if BJP can win 30 odd seats in Orissa and play spoiler to BJD in 50 odd assembly seats then BJP again would be the King makers in the state.
The one good thing is that Congress win be the major loser out of this allaince breakup. Lok Sabha Seats which would have been lost by the BJP if we had fought in alliance would now be won by BJD and not congress.
March 9, 2009 at 11:32 AM
Great Analysis Arun Bhai
March 9, 2009 at 3:01 PM
Naveen has shown clear interest in supporting the NDA post poll. He knows the importance of Hindu votes in Orissa. Even if he does not come to NDA post poll it will be death bells for him in the future.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/naveen-keeps-advani-guessing-continues-to-be-in-nda/432761/
March 9, 2009 at 3:12 PM
Hi,
It is closed chapter. BJP should go alone in orissa for life time.
March 9, 2009 at 3:14 PM
Hi,
Naveen does not understand anything, how much this election is important for contry. Advani is the person, who may control slowdown in economy.
March 9, 2009 at 3:22 PM
I would give the benefit of doubt to Naveen. It was BJPs mistake to continue with people like Samir Dey in state politics when it had honest persons like Darmesh Pradhan and Jural Oram. In the present scenario i think it is a blessing in disguise for the state unit of the party to revamp itself.
I dont think it would be a bad idea to project Jural Oram ( a tribal leader) as the CM candidate of the BJP. Actually in the 30 seats which BJP lost in the last elections were in the trial belt to the JMM and Communist. The congress is also trying to make a comeback only in the tribal regions. BJD is not very strong here. BJD may eat into the urban vote of BJP but BJP should ensure that in tribal areas the party emerges victories smashing INC, JMM, Left and NCP.
March 9, 2009 at 3:29 PM
Dear Arun, In Orissa, BJP is Not an Urban Party.
Infact, BJP Doesnt have an Urban Base in Orissa as Shown by The Recent Municipality Elections Held on The Coastal Belt.
In Orissa, BJP is A Tribal Party and BJP Should Build on This.
BJP Should Certainly Promote Tribal Leaders here and Project Jual Oram as CM. Let Him contest Both Assembly as well as Lok Sabha Seats.
March 9, 2009 at 3:32 PM
It’s the commies who are the real jokers and cartoon characters in this election.
look at their thrid fron partners : AIADMK,TDP,TRS who would Jump into NDA post poll and The Dying JD(S) and JMM an Insignificant corrupt christian party which would go with UPA in Most Probability Post polls
March 10, 2009 at 8:35 AM
Despite the BJP BJD split the NDA is not in that bad of a shape.
Lets look at a projection from Arun Nerhu
http://www.flickr.com/photos/27430283@N08/3337221251/
where he has INC at 151, BJP at 134, 33 for Left Front. His prediction was before the BJP-BJD breakup. So instead of 8 for INC, 6 for BJP and 7 for BJD in Orrisa. Lets suppose it is 10 for INC, 1 for BJP and 10 for BJD which puts INC at 153 and BJP at 129.
Lets see how the numbers pan out. There are various rules like
JD(U) and RJD will not be part of the same front
1) SP and BSP will not be part of same front
2) DMK and AIADMK will not be part of same front
3) NC and PDP will not be part of same front
4) TC and Left front will not be part of the same front
5) TDP, BJD, AGP, INLD, SS, SAD, will not support UPA
6) SP and NCP will most likely not support NDA
7) Left front, RJD, LJNS, ML, KC, will not support NDA.
A UPA front could be
INC (151)+MIM(1)+RJD(8)+LJNS(2)+NC(2)+JMM(2)+ML(2)+KC(1)+NCP(11)+RPI(1)+DMK(7)+PMK(7)+AITC(13)=208 If you add in TRS(6)+PR(3)+Assam independent(1)+JD(S)(2)+SDF(1)+NDF(1)+MDMK(2)+RLD(3)+BNP(1)=20 And also add in SP(26) you get 208+20+26=254. Not enough to cross 272. You will need support of Left front from the outside which is 254+33=287. But you need to substract 13 for AITC which would be 274 which is really cutting it close.
A NDA front would be
BJP(129)+AGP(4)+JD(U)(19)+INLD(3)+SS(12)+SAD(5)+RLD(3)=175
But you can add to it TDP(13)+TRS(6)+PR(3)+Assam Independent(1)+SDF(1)+NDF(1)+BJD(10)+MDMK(2)+PMK(7)+AITC(13)+AIADMK(16)+BNP(1)=74. 175+74=249. If you add BSP(36) it will be 249+36=285. Which is a potentially more stable block then a Left front supported UPA.
A Third front would not work because INC(151)+BJP(129)=280. I guess they can try to get INC to support a Third front from the outside but then the Thrid front would most likely not have TDP, BJD, AGP, INLD, SAD in it since they are all regional rivals to INC. In which case it is merely the UPA alliance I outlined above with INC supporting it from the outside. The numbers barely crosses the 272 line.
The math does not look that for for UPA nor NDA but it seems that NDA might be slightly better off.
March 10, 2009 at 9:27 AM
I differ with Arun Nehru on the following states:
Chattisgarh, UP, Punjab and Haryana.
Haryana: INLD & BJP in 1999 had a vote share of 57% when they fought together, even in 2004 when they fought separately BJP had 20% plus and INLD 30% plus. Now that they have come together, Bajanlal has moved out of congress and formed is new front, it is comical to see Mr. Arun Nehru giving 7 seats to INC in Haryana.
March 10, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Hi,
BJP will get this time 180-190 and alliance will get 48 seats.( excluding BJD).
March 10, 2009 at 2:03 PM
some good news from Jharkhand
http://www.zeenews.com/nation/2009-03-11/513922news.html
Ram Vilas Paswan will play the spoiler for UPA here
March 11, 2009 at 1:22 AM
Good is better now,
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/ljp-to-contest-all-14-ls-seats-in-jharkhand-alone/87355-37.html
As Ram Vilas Paswan plans to contest all 14 now instead of 6 as planned earlier.
March 11, 2009 at 9:32 AM
oh, But, I wish BJP forms Alliance with JD(U) in Jharkhand
March 11, 2009 at 9:47 AM
Dear Raj,
Sushma ji who is in charge of Jharkhand , has said that Alliance with JD(U) will depend on seat sharing agreement in Bihar. From 2004 election JD(U) Candidate was strong only in 1 seat, so in all probability they may get 1 or max 2 seats, provided they are not aggressive in demanding more seats in Bihar.
BJP should contest minimum of 12 seats. Short term gains are no good, they lost Orissa coz they could never consolidate there after entering alliance and became junior partner.
Chances of NDA govt are lesser, so they should drive hard for future growth, especially in WB & Telengana.
March 11, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Hi AK,
I am agree with you.
March 11, 2009 at 3:13 PM
Dear Friends Happy Holi to all,
Look at friends what has happened is past and is the result of over confidence pumped in by Pyari Mohan Mohpatra, the Rajya Sabha Member and IAS officer and Principal Secretary of Biju Patnaik while he was CM of Orissa in 1995. But he failed to recognise that BJP is very strong party in TRIBAL belt of adjoining Jharkhand and chhatisgarh and cetain pocket of coastal Orissa and other part of Orissa and not a pushover as you all should appreciate the fact in 1999 it has got 24% vote share despite the fact it has faught only 9 seats and winning all 9 and BJD vote share was 27% in 12 seats that it faught in 1999 and also in 2004 BJP vot share has declined to 20 % but look at the seats where it derive its strength and despite the break up BJP is strong in orissa and there will be triangular contest and none knows who will be the winner . It will dash the Navin Patnaik dream of PM post and at the end he will not even get the post CM.
It all your discussion you have not taken the King and Queen of Orissa the Sangita Singh Deo and Bikram Singh Deo the Scion of Kalahandi princely state, so in all probality the BJP will win minimum 6 to 7 seats as in tribal area adjoining Jharkhand JMM was its peak in 2004 and has won Mayurbhanj seats by wafer thin margin last time that will sure seats this time and triangular seats any part can win
March 12, 2009 at 10:27 PM
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-and-jd-u-agree-on-seatsharing-in-bihar/87482-37.html
March 13, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Yes AKS Bhai, I Too have Read that
March 13, 2009 at 4:02 PM
Lalu knows he is in a sticky wicket in his own home turf. He is sure to loose Saran to Rudy and it would be great if he looses Pataliputra to Rajan Yadav of JD(U)
http://www.samaylive.com/news/lalu-to-contest-from-two-ls-seats/613445.html
March 16, 2009 at 10:07 AM
BJP getting stronger by day in Jharkhand,
It is close to its position to repeat position of 1999 when it won all 14 seats in Jharkhand portion of Bihar.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/BJP-on-comeback-trail/articleshow/4269446.cms
March 16, 2009 at 11:00 AM
BSP to go alone in Bihar 40 seats.
http://www.patnadaily.com/news2009/mar/031509/mayawati_to_go_solo.html
Last time it had 3.5% vote share, with talks of Mayawati becoming PM it will translate into 5-8% jolting UPA.
BJP-JD(U) are in a position to sweep Bihar with 30+ seats.
March 16, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Dear Friends
HAPP HOLI to all
I could not for last one week as I was at home busy in Holi festival and after that I was in fever for 3-4 days.
Well many developments took place during this tim.
he most significant was
BJD-BJP alliance split in Orissa.
It isd not alla matter of sadness for BJP,rather I believe it is good news.
It is most favourable time for BJP in Orissa to come out of shadow of BJD
After Kandhamal, there is strong polarisation in favour of BJP in tribal belt,which it can cash onlyfighting alone aggressively.
Actually BJP has nothing toloose in Orissa,whatever loss happens it will go to BJD, they are sure to loose govt. in fighting alone.
Orissa is only 5% in BJP’s calclation,even if some loss incurrs it can be compensated outside but for BJD Orissa is their 100% stakes.aveen Patnaik has done a grave mistake. He is likely to be marginalised like Devegowda – Kumaraswamy JDS (in Karnataka).
Orissa may throw up threeway split hung assembly,in which BJP is potent of emerging principal oppostion party and can establish itself as an independent strong lesding party till next election like Karnataka this time.
JP leadershipshould be congratulated for not bowing down before insulting seat sharing proposalof naveen Patnaik and rather preferred to snap ties with him, he state unit of BJP is feeling highly elevated and come out of suuffocating alliance. It is a very good thing state units and localworkers morale should be always high,only this network leads to victory in elections, nothing else.
the best part is the blame of breaking the alliance will not come on BJP.
and it has also easily come out of alliance putting all blame on BJD,the alliance had become a barrier in JP’s growth in Orissa.
I think BJP should projct a ribal leader as CM candidate in Orissa, thgis will see BJP sweeping LS seats of Western Orissa and substantial no.of assembly seats.
Actually Left parties thru Pyari have played like Manthra to naveen patnaik as Kakeyi. this Kakeyi will have to cry alot after elections.
March 16, 2009 at 12:11 PM
One of themost advantagous point of this event was
it sent a clear signal to all BJP allies and onlyafter all allies settled seat haring formulawithin a weak, bcos they understood BJP will not bow under undue pressure and may even leave them seeing the highhandedness adoptd by in BJP Orissa.
it is only befor elections,and after elections seeing the fate of BJD, they willfurther stick strong with BJP.
March 16, 2009 at 12:13 PM
Chakresh & all,
Is there any problem with the website or this is the new layout or I am i having a problem with my laptop.
For me if this is the new layout, the font size appears to be to large, missing the maps makes the page incomplete!!!
Vikasji,
Your comments on developments in Varanasi is welcome
March 16, 2009 at 12:20 PM
I think we are spending too much time in talking of the BJP-BJD split. In the recent urban body elections BJD trounced BJP in cuttak and Buvaneshwar but we all fail to acknowledge that in about 10-12 Municipalities BJP and BJD are in alliance and rulling them. The present election is like a friendly fight between BJD and BJP and postpoll BJP and BJD are natural allies.
The only factor we should be worried about is the benefit what INC would get in the split. My strong belief is that the Non-Hindu which would have gone to the INC before the split would now go to BJD.
Bottomline: Alliance or no alliance, it is win-win for NDA.
March 16, 2009 at 12:24 PM
Chakresh,
I did read the front page now only, SOrry for the complaint!!!8)
March 16, 2009 at 12:36 PM
Dear Arun, I am too am facing the same. I too felt, it’s problem with my laptop. I Appeal The Old Format is Restored.
March 16, 2009 at 12:41 PM
oh I see.
March 16, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Dear Ritesh ji,
Finally BJP heard what you have been saying at least in Orissa. They will project a CM for assembly election.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-to-project-cm-candidate-in-orissa/87682-37.html
I have a hunch it will be an Adivasi. This way they can sweep western Orissa. Remember from 7 seats declared so far 4 are ST seats.
March 20, 2009 at 2:40 PM
With Bihar alliance in Doldrumsn now UPA is losing its ally JMM in Jharkhand
http://www.samaylive.com/news/jmm-to-go-alone-on-14-jharkhand-seats/614485.html
March 20, 2009 at 2:59 PM
Thatz Great News Arun Bhai. And if JMM goes alone in Jharkhand, it’s Advantage BJP in The Tribal Regions of Orissa too as BJP Win in The Tribal Belt of Western Orissa is certain if there is NO JMM-Congress Deal
March 20, 2009 at 3:07 PM
George Fernandez has decided to contest Elections as An Independent as JD(U) has decided NOT to give Him Lok Sabha Ticket Sighting His Health, Which is True. Now, would Geoge’s Revolt against His Party help UPA in This Constituency? or is He just A Matter of Past.
Can any one give A Detailed Analysis?
March 21, 2009 at 12:14 AM
Congress in dire straits
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Congress-JMM-alliance-splits-in-Jharkhand/articleshow/4294406.cms
March 21, 2009 at 11:38 PM
Hi,
BJP should try to get 100% seats from
1. Punjab
2. Rajsthan
3. Madhyapradesh
4. Gujrat
5. Karnatka
6. Himanchal Pradesh
7. Assam
8. Haryana
9. Delhi
10.Bihar
11.Jharkhand
12.NorthEast
13.Maharashtra
14.Telangana
15.Utrakhand
And 50% from
1. Orissa
2. UP(Uma Bharti should put 100% efforts only in UP, MP)
3. Telangana
Intelligent way( Try to win 10% to 25%)
1.Kerala
2.WB
3.TN
4.AP
For all these seats BJP top leaders should take participate very actively.
March 22, 2009 at 10:51 AM
Dear All,
Here some more good news for BJP as the GE 2009 prediction by GVL Narasimha Rao who proved all Opinion Poll NDTV, IBN wrong with his prediction during the Karnataka Assembly Election .
http://www.dailypioneer.com/162467/Centre-beckons.html
The Third Front will be a non-starter, BJP the front-runner with the Congress being a far second. GVL Narasimha Rao makes a prediction for Election 2009
As the nation is headed for elections to elect the 15th Lok Sabha, there is an emerging consensus among political pundits that national issues will not matter in the ensuing polls and that the local, regional issues and caste considerations will hold sway in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls.
As a result, they seem to believe that a motley combination of unattached regional parties (loosely called the Third Front) will come to power after the polls with or without the participation of either the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the Congress. Thanks to this perception of a ramshackle coalition coming to power at the Centre after Lok Sabha polls, there is a sudden buzz of activity in the Third Front camp.
This perception has grown so strong that it has spawned an army of prime ministerial hopefuls ranging from Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to Deve Gowda of the Janata Dal (Secular) and Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD); not to leave behind Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), who broke away from an 11-year-old partnership unilaterally with the BJP in Orissa recently.
Will the 15th Lok Sabha mandate be so fractured that all and sundry can join the race for prime ministership? After all, that is the sense that one gets looking at the brazen manner in which regional parties have bullied national parties like the BJP and the Congress in seat sharing negotiations over the past few weeks.
National issues galore
In my assessment, it is a huge myth that there are no national issues in this election and that the electorate will vote entirely on local issues and local preferences. The evidence from the ground is completely contrary.
This is one election in many decades in which national issues like economy — specifically price rise, unemployment and recession — and internal security (read terrorism) are high on people’s agenda all across the country. Quite significantly, even the rural and the less educated among the electorate believes that issues like price rise, employment and terrorism are largely within the ambit of the Central Government and are not in the domain of the State governments.
BJP better for handling economy, terrorism
Which party does the electorate think can handle better the twin voter concerns of management of economy and terrorism? Interestingly, in States where the BJP is a strong force, it is the preferred party for governance at the Centre, primarily because the Congress-led UPA Government is perceived to have failed in these areas. Ironically, in States where the BJP has no strong presence and the Congress has, the Congress is the favoured party.
In other words, the electorate seems to be favouring the big national parties at a time when national economy and security are the major concerns. Perhaps, the electorate reckons that a strong government at the Centre led by a major national party can handle this situation better than a weak government captained by regional parties.
BJP sweep in strongholds
Thanks to the electorate’s preference for the BJP in comparison to the ruling Congress at the Centre, in all its strongholds, the BJP is likely to sweep polls. In States where the BJP and the Congress are principal adversaries — as in the States of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and even Rajasthan and Delhi which the BJP lost recently in Assembly polls — and in States where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is the principal adversary of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) (like Bihar, Maharastra etc), the BJP and the NDA are likely to sweep the polls.
Congress sweep in non-BJP territories
While the Congress is likely to lose heavily to the BJP in all the latter’s strongholds, the Congress is likely to make major gains in States where it is pitted against the Left and regional parties (as in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal etc). The Congress party is expected to do well in all these states by cannibalising the Third Front. As a result, the unattached regional parties are likely to get squeezed in this election rather than expand their base.
Third Front eclipse
The Third Front with parties such as the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Telangana Rastra Samiti (TRS), Janata Dal (Secular), All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), MDMK etc is a loose grouping of parties which cannot join either the Congress or the BJP for purely tactical reasons.
The Third Front can broadly be described as a rag tag coalition of parties that come together for the sake of gaining some publicity, disproportionate to their actual strength and use it as a parking place when there are no hot political deals happening. At the slightest opportunity, they strike private deals with the Congress and the BJP and not even offer themselves for a wholesale bargain rather than making retail, individual offers.
Look at the composition of the Third Front as it exists today compared to about a year ago. The Samajwadi Party (SP) left the Third Front to support the UPA Government at the Centre leaving the Left parties fuming. Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) jumped onto the NDA bandwagon to fight Lok Sabha polls together with the BJP.
AIADMK keeps entering and quitting the Third Front at the will of its mercurial leader, Dr J Jayalalithaa. As regards Mayawati, one is not even sure whether Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is a part of the Third Front or not. Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has recently parted ways with the BJP to join the illustrious company of this coveted club, although the party makes protestations of its independent standing.
With the electorate seemingly in favour of the bipolar polity with the BJP and the Congress as the two poles, the new Third Front with a number of regional and bit players is getting squeezed from both sides and may just end up with the same tally of seats as the Left Front in the last Lok Sabha.
BJP is the front-runner
Although the Congress camp is exuding supreme confidence and the BJP leaders seem to be plagued by self-doubt about the party’s electoral prospects, the BJP is clearly the front-runner in the polls and is likely to emerge as the single largest party at the national level.
At the National Executive meeting of the BJP last month in Nagpur, of which I became a member recently, I told the party’s top leaders that it was besieged with over-confidence in the 2004 polls — when the party made tall claims of winning 300 seats on its own — while in 2009, when the party is doing pretty well, it is exhibiting signs of gloom and is bereft of buoyancy associated with a winner.
Two-party majority
Given the damages that the BJP is expected to inflict on the Congress in saffron strongholds, the BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party, leaving the Congress quite far behind. But, between them, the parties, that is, the BJP and the Congress together will have a parliamentary majority. That will force the regional parties to gravitate towards one of the two alliances, the BJP-led NDA or the Congress-led UPA.
In my assessment, the BJP-led NDA is likely to lead the next Government as regional parties may prefer joining the NDA bandwagon in the post-poll scenario. For many allies, the BJP does not suit them in the pre-poll scenario given their local, electoral considerations. However, in a post- poll scenario, the BJP-led NDA may hold a lot of promise. After all, no one has the stature and credentials of LK Advani, the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate, or his determination to move to 7 Race Course Road.
Some more good news from Bihar ans Jharkhand as the UPA is in disarray it will clean sweep by NDA over there in Bihar and Jharkhand.
Also Orissa I feel BJP will either be able to retain or even there is greater chance of increasing its tally as the peoplw will be skeptical on BJD inching toward the third and Commies as theay have their creditbilty before the electorate and none repose faith in them.
Orissa and AP will prove to dark horse for the BJP.
March 22, 2009 at 1:20 PM
Hi Raj,
BJP should very hard work because BJP may have clean sweep
int these states.
BJP should try to get 100% seats from
1. Punjab
2. Rajsthan
3. Madhyapradesh
4. Gujrat
5. Karnatka
6. Himanchal Pradesh
7. Assam
8. Haryana
9. Delhi
10.Bihar
11.Jharkhand
12.NorthEast
13.Maharashtra
14.Telangana
15.Utrakhand
BJP sweep in strongholds
=========================
Thanks to the electorate’s preference for the BJP in comparison to the ruling Congress at the Centre, in all its strongholds, the BJP is likely to sweep polls. In States where the BJP and the Congress are principal adversaries — as in the States of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and even Rajasthan and Delhi which the BJP lost recently in Assembly polls — and in States where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is the principal adversary of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) (like Bihar, Maharastra etc), the BJP and the NDA are likely to sweep the polls.
March 22, 2009 at 6:18 PM
Ritesh Bhai, Congress is about to Lose Badly in AP and TN. It’s Only in Kerala and WB that Congrees would gain.
March 22, 2009 at 7:29 PM
oh, My Previous Comment was to Anil Bhai
March 22, 2009 at 11:06 PM
Great News from Orissa Continues,
1> Bijay Mahapatra from NCP & Dilip Ray from Congress all set to join BJP.
http://www.kalingatimes.com/odisha_news/news2009/20090322_Bijay_Mohapatra_to_join_Bharatiya_Janata_Party.htm
2> More defections in BJD, Anadi sahu, Utkal Keshari are inline next to jump on board.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/BJDs-top-leaders-deserting-party/articleshow/4297865.cms
March 23, 2009 at 11:51 AM
Hi Raj,
It will be blessing in disguise for BJP in Orissa and there is difinite under current against the Navin for ditching the BJP and the Man who can’t speak Oriya can you imagine him to understand the nerve of the poor and under priveleged and POSCO displaced people and he had done nothing except media hype about his clean and honest iamge .
His Sipah Salar are two Rajya Sabha Member Jaya Panda and Pyari Mohanty who have never faced public .
They will test real taste people ire in the husting .
March 23, 2009 at 12:19 PM
Yes Anil Bhai, but, in Urban Areas, Navin Patnaik is Still Popular.
PS : In Orissa, BJP is Not The Party of Urban Middle Class. BJP is Predominantly A Tribal Party in Orissa. Hence, BJP Would Sweep in The Tribal Belt of Western Orissa, where There is A Strong Hindutva UnderCurrent
March 23, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Hi Raj,
It is not difficult for BJP to enter into city in Orissa. BJP
should work hard (BJP is other pole of politics).In parliament election, People will cast either BJP or Congress because urban people know very well, only BJP or Cogress can form gov in centre. Only BJP needs to work hard. I think BJD may be big looser.
March 23, 2009 at 12:54 PM
Poor selection of candidtate by JD(U) will cause heavy damage to bjp and JD(U) in biahr
March 23, 2009 at 1:00 PM
JD(U)fielded Munajir Hasan from Begusarai a Bhumihar dominated constituency.He is going to forfeit his deposite certaily. He is also an outsider from Munger.Bhumihar is the backbone of BJP in Bihar.It definately hamper chances of other NDA candidate also surrounding to Begusarai.
March 23, 2009 at 1:31 PM
Second Blunder of Jd(U) is not giving ticket to sure win candidate like George Fernandish and Digvijay Singh .Only above said people have some intellect value else all are jokers of same Lalu pack switch their side to contest from JD(U). Jai Narayan Nishad got ticket in place of George,whome we have seen on dias of three diffrerent party in span of 12 hrs.If BJP-JD(U) would fielded good candidate in Bihar it would be clean sweep for them.But fielding same old corrupt lalu gang will marginalise chance.
March 23, 2009 at 1:35 PM
well it is sad that NDA in general has preferred pouched candidates in Bihar, Karnataka and Gujarat.
I think there is some ploy behind the same. There is more than what it meets the eye!!!
March 23, 2009 at 1:38 PM
Hi,
Kanpur seat in 2004, BJP lost because of pouched candidate.
This time BJP has taken right candidate Satish Mahana.
March 23, 2009 at 1:59 PM
In Gujarat ,Karnataka and Bihar it will be BJP/NDA Sweep. Leaving out George Fernandez is a Blunder but, it wont cause much harm.
March 23, 2009 at 3:02 PM
BJP should rein Nitish Kumar otherwise he is going to become 2nd Naveen patnayak.First thing BJP should not give 26 seats to JD(U).JD(U) does not deserve that much in its kitty.Sure shot win for Nitish is only one seat i.e Nalanda.If you analyse 2004 result as well as caste equation in Bihar JD(U)can win only one rest support of BJP is must.My take is if BJP fight on its own it will do better then what it is going to do with JD(U).In Bihar ground reality is there are two types of voter Pro Lalu and anti Lalu.
March 23, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Hi rk,
You are right. At a time do not create to many enmies. BJP is not already having alliance in TN,WB,AP and Orissa. At one time BJP should not have alliance 2 or 3. But it is four. Once BJP will become strong in AP,Orissa. That time BJP should take 20-30 seats from Bihar.
March 23, 2009 at 5:36 PM
The Time is NOT Yet Ripe for BJP to stand Alone in Bihar. By The By, JD(U) will fight on 25 and Not 26 Seats.
March 24, 2009 at 10:53 AM
In Orissa however, BJP has chosen Right Candidates, particularly in Kandhamal, where BJP is All set to Win.
the BJP has decided to field Ashok Sahu in Kandhamal. The other two Lok Sabha candidates in the State are Shanti Devi (Aska) and Upendra Majhi (Koraput-SC).
March 24, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Former Lok Sabha Speaker and NCP Founder, Leader, P A Sangama to campaign for the BJP
Read report
Former NCP Orissa chief, Bijay Mohapatra joins BJP. read more»
The only woman MP of BJD, Archana Naik, also joins BJP
March 24, 2009 at 11:31 AM
BJP has entered into tacit understanding with some regional parties in North-Eastern
States & has declared support to such candidates.
BJP will support Nagaland People Front (NPF) candidate in Nagaland as both these
parties have announced pre-poll alliance & are partners in DAN Government.
In Meghalaya BJP decided to support UDP candidate in Shillong constituency and
strong non-congress candidate in Tura in larger National interests.
March 24, 2009 at 11:55 AM
It’s Good That P A Sangma has Decided to now Openly come out of NCP.
Congress would Probably Draw A Blank in Meghalaya.
In The Whole of North East Congress can Win just 2-3 seats in Assam, and one in Manipur and a lone seat in Mizoram.
And Congress News Network would have Headlines : Sonia’s Magic Prevails as congress sweeps in Mizoram and Wins With Whooping Majority.
March 24, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Hi Raj,
How is the relation of BJP with SDF.
March 24, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Hi Raj,
BJP may win all seats in norteast except manipur, sikkim and Tripura.
I feel, If BJP gets 10 seats from AP,TN,WB,Kerala.
In case BJP+ may get majority( 273) or in worst case it will be 240.
Except 6 states(AP,TN,WB,Kerala,UP,Orissa) BJP may get 70% to
90% seats from remaining states. It means 80% seats.
From orissa,Telangana and up BJP+ may get 40% to 50% seats.
If i write AP, it means AP-Telangana.
March 24, 2009 at 4:16 PM
SDF may Support BJP Post Elections, but as of now BJP has fielded a Candidate from Sikkim.
BJP Can Win A Seat from Manipur but cant win from Mizoram.
March 24, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Hi Raj,
MNF is partner of BJP in last election.
March 24, 2009 at 4:37 PM
but, recently they lost assembly polls to congress. congress would win in mizoram as they being xtians will vote for maino
March 26, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Nitish Kumar has Categorically stated and asserted that JD(U) is Part of NDA. but, for congress news network -islamochurchists broadcasters news(cnn-ibn), JD(U) will form Alliance with congress.
March 27, 2009 at 2:49 AM
ok fellas!
the fun begins now, pre-poll prediction for general election. One state a day, detailed analysis. First one to go will be God’s own country – Kerala. All of you are invited to join the discussion there. cheers!
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-prediction-2009/
March 28, 2009 at 10:22 PM
BJD leaves Balasore and Sundargarh lok sabha seats to NCP & CPM, these seats are currently represented by BJP.
This will be advantage to BJP on 2 seats.
Interestingly, 3rd seat , Jagatsinghpur is currently held by Brahmananda Panda of BJD and now CPI will fight on this.
If BJP can rope in BJD MP it will be good. Even otherwise, I feel it will do well in this seat.
March 28, 2009 at 10:48 PM
naveen has been misguided and has become overconfident.
he will rue mising Jackpot post elections
March 29, 2009 at 12:30 AM
Hi Raj,
Naveen is child in politics. Today BJP may success or not.
Becuase of other pole of politics BJP will form gov in Orissa
one day. BJD can stop BJP by having alliance with BJP, there is no other option for BJD. BJD will get finished in Orissa one day, BJD is not having any ideology, they are having leaders who are crazy about power.
Same thing will happen with TDP,TRS and PRP,MAMTA,Jaya,Kakka( Karunanidhi).
I do not want BJP should have alliance with these unrealiable
person, BJP should make own base and bring own issue.
BJP is having very big issue in WB, that is illeagal migrants
from Bangladesh. If BJP use this issue, BJP will get more
than 10 seats in WB. TMC,Congress,Left are crazy about Muslims. and muslim votes will be divided. BJP will get advantage. BSP is also crazy about muslim votes. BSP will also get more than 5% votes in WB.
March 29, 2009 at 10:36 AM
Ritesh Bhai, There Should be Only A Tactical Understanding with Mamata and Jaya.
For instance, In Constituencies where BJP has High Winnability, Trinamool and AIADAMK field their Allies.
Like in WB, Trinamool should leave Darjeeling, KrishnaNagar and DumDum for Congress and Similarly, in Tamilnadu, AIADMK leave Kanniyakumari and some other seats for Allies.
In This way, it would completely Decimate Third Front and Congress.
In Places, where BJP is No Strong, they should tactically work for The Defeat of Congress and Left Front and Ensure Trinamool and AIADMK Vicotry(This strategy is ONLY For 2009 Elections)
March 29, 2009 at 10:36 AM
I however, give The Benefit of Doub to TDP and PRP.
March 29, 2009 at 10:43 AM
BJP launches ‘Bhay Ho’ to counter Congress’ ‘Jai Ho’
Watch it.
April 4, 2009 at 3:22 AM
Narendra Modi will Campaign in Orissa on Sunday will address as many as 7 rallies,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Bhubaneswar/Modi-to-campaign-in-Orissa-on-Sunday/articleshow/4356651.cms
April 4, 2009 at 10:05 AM
Thatz Great!!!
He Will Galvanize Hindu Votes to BJP
April 4, 2009 at 10:29 AM
Dear Raj and all
A very good news for NDA
Earlier U and many have been weighing the possibillity of BJP winning Darjeeling LS seat in W. Bengal with GJMM support. But till now no concrete development was reported from there.
Yesterday the final news has come. BJP has done a very smart morve, it has included Gorkhaland issue in its manifesto and got support of GJMM, which has taken back its candfidate from Darjeeling and suppoerted BJP candidate and Rajya Sabha opposition leader and senior BJP leader Jaswant Singh, whom BJP has announced its candidate there. Mr. Jaswant Singh is an ex-armyman and dominant Gorkha
April 4, 2009 at 10:38 AM
community here is highly involved in forceds so they will readily accept him as an MP even though being an outsider, so no problem. GJMM said they are ready to support any one who is in support of creation of Gorkhaland, even if heis from USA though Jaswant is an Indian ex-armyman, former Defence Minister and a leader of national level. In this way BJP will be able to open its account in West Bengal without any alliance with Mamata’s Trinamool Congress.
See Link:
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/gjm-to-support-jaswant-singh-for-darjeeling-ls-seat/89417-37.html
By this move, BJP has killed two birds with one shot.
One, they had put up a strong candidate to win a possible seat in West Bengal.
Two, they had moved Jaswant out of Rajasthan who is considered to be anti-Vasundhara camp, thus avoiding infighting in Rajasthan. Further, his son Manvendra Singh is contesting from Barmer in Rajasthan, so Jaswant Singh will not be spare to create problems else.
April 4, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Is Jaswant Singh Ghorkha?
I thought He is A Rajput.
April 4, 2009 at 3:07 PM
Alright. I havent read completely.
Am Sorry Vikas Ji
April 4, 2009 at 5:30 PM
Hi Raj,
Long time before i told Sushma( National figure) should fight from WB. Now Jaswant(National figure) is fighting from
WB. BJP will win Darjling and JalpaiGuri and two more seat also.
Jaswant will take care of total four seats around Darjling.
BJP will perform well in four seats.
April 5, 2009 at 5:09 AM
Darjeeling is A Sure Seat. New Jalpaiguri is Boit Difficult and more efforts have to be put in.
Other Seats where BJP should Focus regarding WB are : DumDum,KrishnaNagar,Joynagar,Barasat and Malda North
April 5, 2009 at 9:40 PM
Another Jolt to RJD-LJSP as Pappu Yadav to campaign for Congress,
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/pappu-yadav-switches-sides-will-campaign-for-cong/89546-37.html
Also, Congress is proving to be a party of all proven criminals.
April 5, 2009 at 10:49 PM
Hi
Here is another opinion poll by India TV with jaswant Deshmukh and Psephologist .
It is the latest one conducted between 18 to 26 th. march , howver chnages are taking since then and will keep changing .
It has not shwon any seats for BJP in AP ,WB,less no. in MP,Haryana, HP , Bihar.
This the first survey which is putting BJP aheads of congress.
So far as Arun Nehru analysis is concern he is simply doing all the analysis based his assessment without sampling and data base which is ridiculous.
So its change is the scenario as the election is approacing closer things will be more favourable for BJP and worse for congress.
I don’t know all surveys are giving above 20 seats to congress in AP and no seats to BJP and less no. seats to TDP/TRS.
India TV releases post-election picture in massive pre-election survey
India TV releases post-election picture in massive pre-election survey
Main Points:
Prima facie NDA (187) has minor edge over UPA (178); if UPA is minus SP (30), RJD/LJP (15)
On their own, BJP (144) is marginally ahead of Congress (133)
If after elections, SP (30), RJD/ LJP (15), PRP (6), PDP (1), Others (5) back UPA, UPA+ will have 57 more seats (235)
In other words, Fourth Front comprising SP, RJD/LJP, PRP, and PDP have 52 seats
Third Front (121) holds the key with BSP (26), TDP/TRS (14), Left (35), JDS (4), BJD (10), AIADMK 31, HJC 1)
As for the single-largest party in states, Cong (22) ahead in Andhra, JD (U) in Bihar, BJP (18) in Gujarat, Cong (7) in Haryana, Cong-BJP tie in Himachal, NC (3) in J&K, BJP (20) in MP, BJP (13) in Maharashtra with both Shiv Sena and NCP having 12 each, Cong (6) in Punjab but BJP+SAD having 7, Cong 13 in Rajasthan, Left (25) in West Bengal, SP (30) in UP, BJP (9) in Chattisgarh, AIADMK (30) in Tamil Nadu, BJP (17) in Karnataka, Cong (5) in Delhi, BJP (6) in Assam, BJP (8) in Jharkhand, UDF (12) in Kerala, BJP (10) in Orissa, Cong (7) in N-E
Loss for DMK (7), BSP (26)
New Delhi, April 4, 2009: Rajat Sharma’s India TV has declared the results of a massive and first-ever pre-election survey conducted exclusively by reporters. NDA (187) has a minor edge over UPA (178) and the BJP (144) may win more seats than the Congress (133). But if UPA can bring back its former constituents, SP (30) and RJD/LJP (15) and some others it will reach 235, the survey said.
On its part, the BJP (144) may be able to add 43 more seats from existing allies constituents taking the tally of NDA to 187. So, if the Fourth Front gets back to UPA, the key therefore would still lie with the Third Front constituents at 121. The UPA may then need 37 of them to break away to reach the magical mark of 272. If, on the other hand, some constituents of the Third Front minus Left (120 minus 35) join with NDA (187), the NDA may still need break-away groups from the Fourth Front.
The survey covering the entire country and 50,000 respondents has thrown up the first authentic estimates of what the situation will be like on May 16, 2009, when final results of the Lok Sabha are declared. “More than 200 experienced reporters fanned across demographies, castes, religion, and seats to emerge with this comprehensive and nuanced picture on the mood in the Nation,” India TV Chairman and Editor-in-Chief Rajat Sharma said. “This is also the first time that a survey has been done on-camera.”
“In our commitment to give outstanding and most credible and politically astute input to the Nation, a follow-up survey reflecting the swift-changing developments will be unveiled later this month,” Mr Sharma said.
Note for Editors:
State wise tally
A P (42) TDP/TRS 14 Cong 22 PRP 06
Bihar (40) BJP 08 JD (U) 18 RJD/LJP 14
Gujarat (26) BJP 18 Cong 08
Haryana (10) BJP 01 Cong 07 INLD 01 HVP 01
Himachal (4) BJP 02 Cong 02
J & K (6) BJP 01 Cong 01 NC 03 PDP 01
M P (29) BJP 20 Cong 09
Maharashtra (48) BJP 13 Cong 11 SS 12 NCP 12
Punjab (13) BJP 03 Cong 06 SAD 04
Rajasthan (25) BJP 12 Cong 13
West Bengal (42) TMC 11 Cong 06 Left 25
U P (80) BJP 15 Cong 06 SP 30 BSP 26 RLD 03
Chattisgarh (11) BJP 09 Cong 02
Tamil Nadu (39) AIDMK 30 Cong 02 DMK 07
Karnataka (28) BJP 17 Cong 07 JD (S) 04
Uttarakhand (5) BJP 03 Cong 02
Delhi (7) BJP 02 Cong 05
Assam (14) BJP 06 Cong 04 AGP 04
Jharkhand (14) BJP 08 Cong 01 JMM 02 JDU 01 Oth 01RJD 01
Kerala (20) Left 08 UDF 12
Orissa (21) BJP 03 Cong 08 BJD 10
North East (19)BJP 03 Cong 07 NCP 02 Left 02 AIADNK 01Oth04
NDA 144+43 = 187
BJP 144
BJP+ 43 (JDU 19+SS 12+SAD 4+RLD 3+AGP 4+INLD 1)
UPA 133 + 45= 178
Cong 133
Cong+ 45 (NC 3 +NCP 14+TMC 11+DMK 7+UDF 08+ JMM 02)
Third Front = 120
(BSP 26+TDP/TRS 14 +Left 35+ JDS 04+BJD 10+AIDMK 31)
Others 5 + 53 = 58
SP = 30
RJD/LJP = 15
PRP = 06
HVP = 01
PDP = 01
April 6, 2009 at 9:27 AM
Veteran RJD Leader joins JD(U), further weaking Lallu & Paswan Alliance,
http://www.patnadaily.com/news2009/apr/040309/vijay_krishna_joins_jdu.html
April 7, 2009 at 2:02 AM
–rjd-ljp 15 in bihar only in dreams.
–bjp-ss 25 in maha this is not analysis it is just copy pasting 2004 results.
–tie in himachal and 2 seats to bjp-inld combine in haryana is foolish.
April 11, 2009 at 5:44 PM
BJP lead NDA government will form the next government in parliament the prediction is not right according to my calucation various issues taken widely and deeply to consideration for the polls BJP will get 208 seats +its
allies will get around nearly 85 to 90 seats it is very easy to NDA will form the government. For example Uttar pradesh it self after varuns issue BJP will ger 40+ seats
Thanks
April 14, 2009 at 7:58 AM
http://beacononline.wordpress.com/2009/04/13/sikkim-jaswantmania-in-darjeeling-beefs-up-sikkim-bjp%e2%80%99s-confidence/
April 15, 2009 at 12:36 AM
Hello everyone!
I am the Sales head of my company, in charge of Eastern, Central and Western India. My areas include Eastern & Central UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam/NE, West Bengal, Orissa, MP, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. My subordinates and me travel to length and breadth of these states, including rural and semi urban areas and meet a lot of people (panchayat leaders, local groups etc). For the past 4-5 months; politics / lok sabha elections invariably come up during our discussions with them. Based on these feedbacks I am putting up my estimates for the elections in these states;
1) Bihar – Caste is still a predominant factor. Muslims still have a suspicion towards LKA as PM and would prefer a UPA goverment at Centre and Nitish Kumar Govt at state level. But Nitish’s good governance plank has also made inroads as people are getting fruits of developement after a long time. Though it is an advantage JD(U)-BJP, Laloo is down but not out. It is the LJP votes that are gradually tilting towrds the NDA. Paswan is in for a shocker. INC may be blanked out.
My guesstimate : NDA = 24-27, RJD+ = 13-16, INC = 0-1.
2) Eastern & Central UP – Signs of anti-incumbency showing up especially among forward castes, who have started tilting towards the BJP, although slowly. Moreover tickets to goons given by BSP and hooliganism by their cadres are hurting the party. Dalits would vote en bloc for BSP even though signs of anger on the incumbent Chief Minister are getting visible. Minority vote is divided and I suspect that the earlier “strategic voting to defeat BJP” would be absent this time. NSA on Varun Gandhi has polarised the situation to some extent and this would deliver additional votes to the BJP in this part of UP. But ground reality is that if BJP can project Varun Gandhi as the next BJPs Chief Ministerial candidate, he would give Mayawati and Mulayam sleepless nights for UP Vidhan Sabha polls 2012. But the biggest shocker would be for SP as they are gradually losing the minority (BSP is getting stronger) and OBC (3-way split – SP/BJP/BSP) votes. BJP’s Yogi Adityanath may also be in for a shock this time. INC would be blanked out in most of the seats won by them in 2004 (Kanpur, Bansgaon, Allahabad). BJP is on a silent upswing especially in the urban areas, which is not visible to media. BSP is however still the frontrunner.
My guesstimate in these areas where I frequently visit (42 seats) : BSP = 25-28, SP = 6-8, BJP = 7-9, INC = 2-3 (including Amethi, Rai Barelli).
3) Jharkhand – Huge anti incumbency against the incumbent State Government but not so much against the Centre. Here independents are also queering the pitch. Both BJP and INC are facing internal sabotage. 3 cornered contest with slight advantage to NDA. In fact had NDA allied with JVM and JD(U) given ticket to Sri.I.S.Namdhari, it would have been a landslide.
My guesstimate : NDA = 5-7, UPA = 4-6, RJD+ = 1-2, JVM = 1, Independent = 1 (I.S.Namdhari).
4) Madhya Pradesh – A highly divided opposition makes the task of BJP quite easy. Leaders of INC are busy squabbling among themselves leaving its cadres directionless in both states. Anti incumbency against sitting MPs is steadily gaining ground in both states but INC is unable to capitalise. Had INC put up suitable candidates and presented a united face, they would have won around 15-18 seats in these 2 states. But this is not happening on the ground.
My guesstimate for MP : NDA = 22-24, UPA = 5-7
My guesstimate for Chattisgarh : NDA = 8-9, UPA = 2-3
5) Orissa – BJD has committed a hara kiri by breaking its alliance with the BJP. This was on the cards for quite some time now after Kandhamal violence. In fact lot of leaders of BJD who were against the autocratic style of Navin Patnaik, are joining BJP after the divorce. Navin Patnaik has created a myth of “Orissa Shining” like NDA did in 2004. Though the INC is a divided house, there is every possibility that it may become the single largest party after the assembly polls given the anti incumbency especially in rural and tribal areas. BJP is still carrying the baggage of anti incumbency of 10 years of BJD-BJP rule and would lose substantial votes this time. But in the long run it can consolidate its votes and may reduce BJD like JD(S) in Karnataka or JD in Gujarat. If however, it once again allies with the BJD post poll, then it is curtains for the saffron party and a lot of leaders would desert it. If on the other hand BJD decides to support an INC led government at the Centre (based on certain media reports), it can be rest assured that BJP would come to power on its own in the state during the next round of Assembly polls.
My guesstimate for Orissa : INC = 10-12, BJD/NCP/Left = 7-9, BJP = 3-4
6) West Bengal – Another “UPA shining” fiasco on the cards. There is a deep sense of anger in Kolkata and its adjoining districts over the anti development agenda of Smt.Mamata Banerjee. The city and its adjoining suburbs would vote against UPA in a big way leaving them high and dry. Though UPA alliance would pick some seats in rural Bengal, the media hype created would turn out to be hollow. In fact INC may lose a seat or two over 2004. BJP may win Darjeeling and Krishnanagar seats if it works hard.
My guesstimate for West Bengal : INC = 4-5, TMC = 6-7, BJP = 1-2, Left = 29-31
7) Assam – Incumbent government is in extremely bad shape with a huge anti-incumbency against both State and Centre. Adding to its woes is the recent bomb blasts and the emergence of AUDF, which is eating away minority votes in large chunks. AUDF has allied with the Left/NCP thus damaging the prospects of INC further. BJP has stitched up a smart alliance with AGP/AGP(P) and is getting stronger day by day. INC sources fear that heavy weights like Santosh Mohan Dev may also bite the dust this time.
My guesstimate for Assam : NDA = 11-12, INC = 0-2, AUDF/NCP/Left = 0-1
My guesstimate for Gujarat : INC = 9-11, BJP = 15-17
9) Maharashtra – The ground situation is peculiar. Though anti-incumbency is beginning to peak, people of Maharashtra is still ready to vote for UPA – I was very surprised with the feed back. This is particularly true among dalits and minorities. High MSP of cotton, good rains coupled with loan waiver has helped UPA to score brownie points in Vidharbha. The biggest problem plaguing the NDA is absence of charismatic leaders and ground level mistrust between SHS and BJP. Though similar mistrust exists between the UPA partners also, the committed vote base of the 2 alliances is tilted in favour of the UPA. Based on our discussions with people I guess that Marathwada region would see a UPA sweep while NDA would score substantial gains in Mumbai-Pune-Thane belt. Vidharbha area would see a 60:40 split in favour of UPA.
My guesstimate for Maharastra : NDA = 21-23, UPA = 25-27
April 15, 2009 at 12:39 AM
@ raja
I have posted your prediction as separate post. see at front page of blog.
Thanks for wonderful inputs.
April 17, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Based on the feedback received from Maharashtra, Jharkhand, hatisgarh, Bihar & UP, I guess BJP led NDA has to wait till 2014 for tasting power. Minorities, SC/STs have voted in a big way in Phase I. Way it is going BJP may end up with 120-125 seats only and NDA at 165-170 seats.
Based on what I have gathered from preliminary sources is given below.
1) Maharashtra : UPA sweep in Vidharbha (UPA = 7-8, NDA = 2-3) and advantage in Marathwada (UPA = 2-3, NDA = 0-1)
2) Jharkhand : UPA has upper hand (UPA = 3-4, NDA = 0-1, Others = 1-2). Yeshwant Sinha, Karia Munda may lose.
3) Orissa : INC sweep (INC = 6, BJP+ = 1, BJD/NCP/Left = 3)
4) Bihar : NDA & RJD+ neck and neck (NDA = 7, RJD+ = 6)
5) UP : INC/BJP wash out. Main fight between SP & BSP (BSP = 8-9, SP = 4-5, BJP = 1-2, INC = 0-1). Yogi Adiyanath, Murli M Joshi may lose.
6) Assam = INC upper hand (INC = 2, BJP+ = 1)
7) Chattisgarh : INC is on a road to recovery. Local level anti-incumbency against sitting MPs is peaking. (BJP = 6-7, INC = 4-5). BJP has miscalculated on this issue.
North East : INC has an upper hand (INC = 4 , NDA = 2, Left = 1)
I was surprised by the feedback and am cross-checking to be really sure.
Would give the final estimates tomoprrow by 8PM after cross-checking with other sources.
April 19, 2009 at 10:02 AM
http://www.darjeelingtimes.com/news/Photo-Stories/Darjeeling-Welcomes-Jaswant-Singh.html
April 19, 2009 at 1:46 PM
NO Way Raja.
STs Vote for BJP and NOT for congress.
SCs Alltogether DONT Wont for congress
Minorities are Minorities, let them vote for congress, it hardly matters any
April 21, 2009 at 3:03 AM
Here is a interesting site (http://truthburster.co.in )for those who like to predict election results. You can predict the results and can compare once the results are announced. Just to prove you know better than others.
April 23, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Gorkhas were originally Rajputs. Bappa Rawal (Prince Kalbhoj) of the Mewar dynasty in Rajasthan (Rajputana), was the first Gorkha. He was a follower of the Hindu Sage Gorakhnath (Shaivaite), from where he got the name Gorkha (modern day Gurkha). Bappa Rawals descendants moved eastwards and are said to have formed the state of Nepal. (Prithvi Narayan Shah of Nepal was a Gorkha). The Royal family of Nepal claim to be descendents of Bappa Rawal.
Gorkha in Prakrit means ‘Cow Protector’ (Gou Rakkha).
April 23, 2009 at 1:45 AM
My prediction for Congress in Bengal is 11 seats. Lets wait and watch …
April 23, 2009 at 9:51 AM
Ambar your comments make me Laugh as They Are Ludiculous!!!seriously, you seem to have run away from A Mental Assylum
April 27, 2009 at 4:30 PM
http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.com
http://www.sanjeevgnaik.com/index.html
A similar political rally was organized at Turbhe stores in support of NCP-Congress-RPI candidate Dr Sanjeev Naik. Along with the maximum participation of RPI and Congress party workers, The Planned development is for everybody to see. I Strongly feel that candidates should have vision and my vision is holistic development. In Navi Mumbai we have worked towards reducing the impact of rapid urbanization on the environment . Navi Mumbai’s is the only civic body to have its sewage treatment plant. I believe other civic bodies should also have their own sewage treatment plants. I also have plans for decentralization of sewage treatment plants with the big housing complexes having their own sewage treatment plants
April 29, 2009 at 3:47 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
May 2, 2009 at 12:38 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.