by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
January 3rd, 2009 at 3:12 AM
assam bjp alliance with agp could be bjps answer to cong-sp alliance in
u.p. alliance would emerge very strong would be helpfull in all constituencies.
January 3rd, 2009 at 3:06 AM
weakening of left will make bjp strong in some 5 to 6 constituencies if bjp ties up with mamta didi they will be in position to throw left below 20 figure. if she ties up with cong anti incumbency factor against centre could help bjp to improve its tally to a surprising double digits. i dont think anti incumbency will help left because they were a part of centre lately west bengal would be really interesting to watch this election as it is full of uncertainty.
bjp+trinamool :6+18=24
inc : 5
left :14
or
inc+trinamool=5+15=20
bjp :8-10
left :15-13 of 42 in total.
October 20th, 2008 at 10:40 PM
I think if mamatha joins with congress she would loose as well. becuase now anti incubency is heavily there against the central government and congress is losing in rest of the country heavily.This is not a good timing for mamata. Also, now that lose of nano project has cost much more damage to WB than what would have happened otherwise. People start realizing the foolish nature of mamata and what would happen if power falls in her hands. Only more poverty and begging.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:41 PM
With alliance of AGP-BJP confirmed in Assam, I think you should change your assessment.
Also TMC will perform much better in south Bengal with Nano becoming a factor in the agricultural rich area.