by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 21st, 2009 at 11:38 PM
Hi,
BJP should try to get 100% seats from
1. Punjab
2. Rajsthan
3. Madhyapradesh
4. Gujrat
5. Karnatka
6. Himanchal Pradesh
7. Assam
8. Haryana
9. Delhi
10.Bihar
11.Jharkhand
12.NorthEast
13.Maharashtra
14.Telangana
15.Utrakhand
And 50% from
1. Orissa
2. UP(Uma Bharti should put 100% efforts only in UP, MP)
3. Telangana
Intelligent way( Try to win 10% to 25%)
1.Kerala
2.WB
3.TN
4.AP
For all these seats BJP top leaders should take participate very actively.
March 21st, 2009 at 12:14 AM
Congress in dire straits
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Congress-JMM-alliance-splits-in-Jharkhand/articleshow/4294406.cms
March 20th, 2009 at 3:07 PM
George Fernandez has decided to contest Elections as An Independent as JD(U) has decided NOT to give Him Lok Sabha Ticket Sighting His Health, Which is True. Now, would Geoge’s Revolt against His Party help UPA in This Constituency? or is He just A Matter of Past.
Can any one give A Detailed Analysis?
March 20th, 2009 at 2:59 PM
Thatz Great News Arun Bhai. And if JMM goes alone in Jharkhand, it’s Advantage BJP in The Tribal Regions of Orissa too as BJP Win in The Tribal Belt of Western Orissa is certain if there is NO JMM-Congress Deal
March 20th, 2009 at 2:40 PM
With Bihar alliance in Doldrumsn now UPA is losing its ally JMM in Jharkhand
http://www.samaylive.com/news/jmm-to-go-alone-on-14-jharkhand-seats/614485.html
March 16th, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Dear Ritesh ji,
Finally BJP heard what you have been saying at least in Orissa. They will project a CM for assembly election.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-to-project-cm-candidate-in-orissa/87682-37.html
I have a hunch it will be an Adivasi. This way they can sweep western Orissa. Remember from 7 seats declared so far 4 are ST seats.
March 16th, 2009 at 12:41 PM
oh I see.
March 16th, 2009 at 12:36 PM
Dear Arun, I am too am facing the same. I too felt, it’s problem with my laptop. I Appeal The Old Format is Restored.
March 16th, 2009 at 12:24 PM
Chakresh,
I did read the front page now only, SOrry for the complaint!!!8)
March 16th, 2009 at 12:20 PM
I think we are spending too much time in talking of the BJP-BJD split. In the recent urban body elections BJD trounced BJP in cuttak and Buvaneshwar but we all fail to acknowledge that in about 10-12 Municipalities BJP and BJD are in alliance and rulling them. The present election is like a friendly fight between BJD and BJP and postpoll BJP and BJD are natural allies.
The only factor we should be worried about is the benefit what INC would get in the split. My strong belief is that the Non-Hindu which would have gone to the INC before the split would now go to BJD.
Bottomline: Alliance or no alliance, it is win-win for NDA.
March 16th, 2009 at 12:13 PM
Chakresh & all,
Is there any problem with the website or this is the new layout or I am i having a problem with my laptop.
For me if this is the new layout, the font size appears to be to large, missing the maps makes the page incomplete!!!
Vikasji,
Your comments on developments in Varanasi is welcome
March 16th, 2009 at 12:11 PM
One of themost advantagous point of this event was
it sent a clear signal to all BJP allies and onlyafter all allies settled seat haring formulawithin a weak, bcos they understood BJP will not bow under undue pressure and may even leave them seeing the highhandedness adoptd by in BJP Orissa.
it is only befor elections,and after elections seeing the fate of BJD, they willfurther stick strong with BJP.
March 16th, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Dear Friends
HAPP HOLI to all
I could not for last one week as I was at home busy in Holi festival and after that I was in fever for 3-4 days.
Well many developments took place during this tim.
he most significant was
BJD-BJP alliance split in Orissa.
It isd not alla matter of sadness for BJP,rather I believe it is good news.
It is most favourable time for BJP in Orissa to come out of shadow of BJD
After Kandhamal, there is strong polarisation in favour of BJP in tribal belt,which it can cash onlyfighting alone aggressively.
Actually BJP has nothing toloose in Orissa,whatever loss happens it will go to BJD, they are sure to loose govt. in fighting alone.
Orissa is only 5% in BJP’s calclation,even if some loss incurrs it can be compensated outside but for BJD Orissa is their 100% stakes.aveen Patnaik has done a grave mistake. He is likely to be marginalised like Devegowda – Kumaraswamy JDS (in Karnataka).
Orissa may throw up threeway split hung assembly,in which BJP is potent of emerging principal oppostion party and can establish itself as an independent strong lesding party till next election like Karnataka this time.
JP leadershipshould be congratulated for not bowing down before insulting seat sharing proposalof naveen Patnaik and rather preferred to snap ties with him, he state unit of BJP is feeling highly elevated and come out of suuffocating alliance. It is a very good thing state units and localworkers morale should be always high,only this network leads to victory in elections, nothing else.
the best part is the blame of breaking the alliance will not come on BJP.
and it has also easily come out of alliance putting all blame on BJD,the alliance had become a barrier in JP’s growth in Orissa.
I think BJP should projct a ribal leader as CM candidate in Orissa, thgis will see BJP sweeping LS seats of Western Orissa and substantial no.of assembly seats.
Actually Left parties thru Pyari have played like Manthra to naveen patnaik as Kakeyi. this Kakeyi will have to cry alot after elections.
March 16th, 2009 at 11:00 AM
BSP to go alone in Bihar 40 seats.
http://www.patnadaily.com/news2009/mar/031509/mayawati_to_go_solo.html
Last time it had 3.5% vote share, with talks of Mayawati becoming PM it will translate into 5-8% jolting UPA.
BJP-JD(U) are in a position to sweep Bihar with 30+ seats.
March 16th, 2009 at 10:07 AM
BJP getting stronger by day in Jharkhand,
It is close to its position to repeat position of 1999 when it won all 14 seats in Jharkhand portion of Bihar.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/BJP-on-comeback-trail/articleshow/4269446.cms
March 13th, 2009 at 4:02 PM
Lalu knows he is in a sticky wicket in his own home turf. He is sure to loose Saran to Rudy and it would be great if he looses Pataliputra to Rajan Yadav of JD(U)
http://www.samaylive.com/news/lalu-to-contest-from-two-ls-seats/613445.html
March 13th, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Yes AKS Bhai, I Too have Read that
March 12th, 2009 at 10:27 PM
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-and-jd-u-agree-on-seatsharing-in-bihar/87482-37.html
March 11th, 2009 at 3:13 PM
Dear Friends Happy Holi to all,
Look at friends what has happened is past and is the result of over confidence pumped in by Pyari Mohan Mohpatra, the Rajya Sabha Member and IAS officer and Principal Secretary of Biju Patnaik while he was CM of Orissa in 1995. But he failed to recognise that BJP is very strong party in TRIBAL belt of adjoining Jharkhand and chhatisgarh and cetain pocket of coastal Orissa and other part of Orissa and not a pushover as you all should appreciate the fact in 1999 it has got 24% vote share despite the fact it has faught only 9 seats and winning all 9 and BJD vote share was 27% in 12 seats that it faught in 1999 and also in 2004 BJP vot share has declined to 20 % but look at the seats where it derive its strength and despite the break up BJP is strong in orissa and there will be triangular contest and none knows who will be the winner . It will dash the Navin Patnaik dream of PM post and at the end he will not even get the post CM.
It all your discussion you have not taken the King and Queen of Orissa the Sangita Singh Deo and Bikram Singh Deo the Scion of Kalahandi princely state, so in all probality the BJP will win minimum 6 to 7 seats as in tribal area adjoining Jharkhand JMM was its peak in 2004 and has won Mayurbhanj seats by wafer thin margin last time that will sure seats this time and triangular seats any part can win
March 11th, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Hi AK,
I am agree with you.