by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 24th, 2009 at 11:31 AM
BJP has entered into tacit understanding with some regional parties in North-Eastern
States & has declared support to such candidates.
BJP will support Nagaland People Front (NPF) candidate in Nagaland as both these
parties have announced pre-poll alliance & are partners in DAN Government.
In Meghalaya BJP decided to support UDP candidate in Shillong constituency and
strong non-congress candidate in Tura in larger National interests.
March 24th, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Former Lok Sabha Speaker and NCP Founder, Leader, P A Sangama to campaign for the BJP
Read report
Former NCP Orissa chief, Bijay Mohapatra joins BJP. read more»
The only woman MP of BJD, Archana Naik, also joins BJP
March 24th, 2009 at 10:53 AM
In Orissa however, BJP has chosen Right Candidates, particularly in Kandhamal, where BJP is All set to Win.
the BJP has decided to field Ashok Sahu in Kandhamal. The other two Lok Sabha candidates in the State are Shanti Devi (Aska) and Upendra Majhi (Koraput-SC).
March 23rd, 2009 at 5:36 PM
The Time is NOT Yet Ripe for BJP to stand Alone in Bihar. By The By, JD(U) will fight on 25 and Not 26 Seats.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Hi rk,
You are right. At a time do not create to many enmies. BJP is not already having alliance in TN,WB,AP and Orissa. At one time BJP should not have alliance 2 or 3. But it is four. Once BJP will become strong in AP,Orissa. That time BJP should take 20-30 seats from Bihar.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:02 PM
BJP should rein Nitish Kumar otherwise he is going to become 2nd Naveen patnayak.First thing BJP should not give 26 seats to JD(U).JD(U) does not deserve that much in its kitty.Sure shot win for Nitish is only one seat i.e Nalanda.If you analyse 2004 result as well as caste equation in Bihar JD(U)can win only one rest support of BJP is must.My take is if BJP fight on its own it will do better then what it is going to do with JD(U).In Bihar ground reality is there are two types of voter Pro Lalu and anti Lalu.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:59 PM
In Gujarat ,Karnataka and Bihar it will be BJP/NDA Sweep. Leaving out George Fernandez is a Blunder but, it wont cause much harm.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:38 PM
Hi,
Kanpur seat in 2004, BJP lost because of pouched candidate.
This time BJP has taken right candidate Satish Mahana.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:35 PM
well it is sad that NDA in general has preferred pouched candidates in Bihar, Karnataka and Gujarat.
I think there is some ploy behind the same. There is more than what it meets the eye!!!
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:31 PM
Second Blunder of Jd(U) is not giving ticket to sure win candidate like George Fernandish and Digvijay Singh .Only above said people have some intellect value else all are jokers of same Lalu pack switch their side to contest from JD(U). Jai Narayan Nishad got ticket in place of George,whome we have seen on dias of three diffrerent party in span of 12 hrs.If BJP-JD(U) would fielded good candidate in Bihar it would be clean sweep for them.But fielding same old corrupt lalu gang will marginalise chance.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:00 PM
JD(U)fielded Munajir Hasan from Begusarai a Bhumihar dominated constituency.He is going to forfeit his deposite certaily. He is also an outsider from Munger.Bhumihar is the backbone of BJP in Bihar.It definately hamper chances of other NDA candidate also surrounding to Begusarai.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:54 PM
Poor selection of candidtate by JD(U) will cause heavy damage to bjp and JD(U) in biahr
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Hi Raj,
It is not difficult for BJP to enter into city in Orissa. BJP
should work hard (BJP is other pole of politics).In parliament election, People will cast either BJP or Congress because urban people know very well, only BJP or Cogress can form gov in centre. Only BJP needs to work hard. I think BJD may be big looser.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:19 PM
Yes Anil Bhai, but, in Urban Areas, Navin Patnaik is Still Popular.
PS : In Orissa, BJP is Not The Party of Urban Middle Class. BJP is Predominantly A Tribal Party in Orissa. Hence, BJP Would Sweep in The Tribal Belt of Western Orissa, where There is A Strong Hindutva UnderCurrent
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:51 AM
Hi Raj,
It will be blessing in disguise for BJP in Orissa and there is difinite under current against the Navin for ditching the BJP and the Man who can’t speak Oriya can you imagine him to understand the nerve of the poor and under priveleged and POSCO displaced people and he had done nothing except media hype about his clean and honest iamge .
His Sipah Salar are two Rajya Sabha Member Jaya Panda and Pyari Mohanty who have never faced public .
They will test real taste people ire in the husting .
March 22nd, 2009 at 11:06 PM
Great News from Orissa Continues,
1> Bijay Mahapatra from NCP & Dilip Ray from Congress all set to join BJP.
http://www.kalingatimes.com/odisha_news/news2009/20090322_Bijay_Mohapatra_to_join_Bharatiya_Janata_Party.htm
2> More defections in BJD, Anadi sahu, Utkal Keshari are inline next to jump on board.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/BJDs-top-leaders-deserting-party/articleshow/4297865.cms
March 22nd, 2009 at 7:29 PM
oh, My Previous Comment was to Anil Bhai
March 22nd, 2009 at 6:18 PM
Ritesh Bhai, Congress is about to Lose Badly in AP and TN. It’s Only in Kerala and WB that Congrees would gain.
March 22nd, 2009 at 1:20 PM
Hi Raj,
BJP should very hard work because BJP may have clean sweep
int these states.
BJP should try to get 100% seats from
1. Punjab
2. Rajsthan
3. Madhyapradesh
4. Gujrat
5. Karnatka
6. Himanchal Pradesh
7. Assam
8. Haryana
9. Delhi
10.Bihar
11.Jharkhand
12.NorthEast
13.Maharashtra
14.Telangana
15.Utrakhand
BJP sweep in strongholds
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Thanks to the electorate’s preference for the BJP in comparison to the ruling Congress at the Centre, in all its strongholds, the BJP is likely to sweep polls. In States where the BJP and the Congress are principal adversaries — as in the States of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and even Rajasthan and Delhi which the BJP lost recently in Assembly polls — and in States where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is the principal adversary of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) (like Bihar, Maharastra etc), the BJP and the NDA are likely to sweep the polls.
March 22nd, 2009 at 10:51 AM
Dear All,
Here some more good news for BJP as the GE 2009 prediction by GVL Narasimha Rao who proved all Opinion Poll NDTV, IBN wrong with his prediction during the Karnataka Assembly Election .
http://www.dailypioneer.com/162467/Centre-beckons.html
The Third Front will be a non-starter, BJP the front-runner with the Congress being a far second. GVL Narasimha Rao makes a prediction for Election 2009
As the nation is headed for elections to elect the 15th Lok Sabha, there is an emerging consensus among political pundits that national issues will not matter in the ensuing polls and that the local, regional issues and caste considerations will hold sway in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls.
As a result, they seem to believe that a motley combination of unattached regional parties (loosely called the Third Front) will come to power after the polls with or without the participation of either the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the Congress. Thanks to this perception of a ramshackle coalition coming to power at the Centre after Lok Sabha polls, there is a sudden buzz of activity in the Third Front camp.
This perception has grown so strong that it has spawned an army of prime ministerial hopefuls ranging from Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to Deve Gowda of the Janata Dal (Secular) and Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD); not to leave behind Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), who broke away from an 11-year-old partnership unilaterally with the BJP in Orissa recently.
Will the 15th Lok Sabha mandate be so fractured that all and sundry can join the race for prime ministership? After all, that is the sense that one gets looking at the brazen manner in which regional parties have bullied national parties like the BJP and the Congress in seat sharing negotiations over the past few weeks.
National issues galore
In my assessment, it is a huge myth that there are no national issues in this election and that the electorate will vote entirely on local issues and local preferences. The evidence from the ground is completely contrary.
This is one election in many decades in which national issues like economy — specifically price rise, unemployment and recession — and internal security (read terrorism) are high on people’s agenda all across the country. Quite significantly, even the rural and the less educated among the electorate believes that issues like price rise, employment and terrorism are largely within the ambit of the Central Government and are not in the domain of the State governments.
BJP better for handling economy, terrorism
Which party does the electorate think can handle better the twin voter concerns of management of economy and terrorism? Interestingly, in States where the BJP is a strong force, it is the preferred party for governance at the Centre, primarily because the Congress-led UPA Government is perceived to have failed in these areas. Ironically, in States where the BJP has no strong presence and the Congress has, the Congress is the favoured party.
In other words, the electorate seems to be favouring the big national parties at a time when national economy and security are the major concerns. Perhaps, the electorate reckons that a strong government at the Centre led by a major national party can handle this situation better than a weak government captained by regional parties.
BJP sweep in strongholds
Thanks to the electorate’s preference for the BJP in comparison to the ruling Congress at the Centre, in all its strongholds, the BJP is likely to sweep polls. In States where the BJP and the Congress are principal adversaries — as in the States of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and even Rajasthan and Delhi which the BJP lost recently in Assembly polls — and in States where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is the principal adversary of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) (like Bihar, Maharastra etc), the BJP and the NDA are likely to sweep the polls.
Congress sweep in non-BJP territories
While the Congress is likely to lose heavily to the BJP in all the latter’s strongholds, the Congress is likely to make major gains in States where it is pitted against the Left and regional parties (as in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal etc). The Congress party is expected to do well in all these states by cannibalising the Third Front. As a result, the unattached regional parties are likely to get squeezed in this election rather than expand their base.
Third Front eclipse
The Third Front with parties such as the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Telangana Rastra Samiti (TRS), Janata Dal (Secular), All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), MDMK etc is a loose grouping of parties which cannot join either the Congress or the BJP for purely tactical reasons.
The Third Front can broadly be described as a rag tag coalition of parties that come together for the sake of gaining some publicity, disproportionate to their actual strength and use it as a parking place when there are no hot political deals happening. At the slightest opportunity, they strike private deals with the Congress and the BJP and not even offer themselves for a wholesale bargain rather than making retail, individual offers.
Look at the composition of the Third Front as it exists today compared to about a year ago. The Samajwadi Party (SP) left the Third Front to support the UPA Government at the Centre leaving the Left parties fuming. Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) jumped onto the NDA bandwagon to fight Lok Sabha polls together with the BJP.
AIADMK keeps entering and quitting the Third Front at the will of its mercurial leader, Dr J Jayalalithaa. As regards Mayawati, one is not even sure whether Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is a part of the Third Front or not. Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has recently parted ways with the BJP to join the illustrious company of this coveted club, although the party makes protestations of its independent standing.
With the electorate seemingly in favour of the bipolar polity with the BJP and the Congress as the two poles, the new Third Front with a number of regional and bit players is getting squeezed from both sides and may just end up with the same tally of seats as the Left Front in the last Lok Sabha.
BJP is the front-runner
Although the Congress camp is exuding supreme confidence and the BJP leaders seem to be plagued by self-doubt about the party’s electoral prospects, the BJP is clearly the front-runner in the polls and is likely to emerge as the single largest party at the national level.
At the National Executive meeting of the BJP last month in Nagpur, of which I became a member recently, I told the party’s top leaders that it was besieged with over-confidence in the 2004 polls — when the party made tall claims of winning 300 seats on its own — while in 2009, when the party is doing pretty well, it is exhibiting signs of gloom and is bereft of buoyancy associated with a winner.
Two-party majority
Given the damages that the BJP is expected to inflict on the Congress in saffron strongholds, the BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party, leaving the Congress quite far behind. But, between them, the parties, that is, the BJP and the Congress together will have a parliamentary majority. That will force the regional parties to gravitate towards one of the two alliances, the BJP-led NDA or the Congress-led UPA.
In my assessment, the BJP-led NDA is likely to lead the next Government as regional parties may prefer joining the NDA bandwagon in the post-poll scenario. For many allies, the BJP does not suit them in the pre-poll scenario given their local, electoral considerations. However, in a post- poll scenario, the BJP-led NDA may hold a lot of promise. After all, no one has the stature and credentials of LK Advani, the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate, or his determination to move to 7 Race Course Road.
Some more good news from Bihar ans Jharkhand as the UPA is in disarray it will clean sweep by NDA over there in Bihar and Jharkhand.
Also Orissa I feel BJP will either be able to retain or even there is greater chance of increasing its tally as the peoplw will be skeptical on BJD inching toward the third and Commies as theay have their creditbilty before the electorate and none repose faith in them.
Orissa and AP will prove to dark horse for the BJP.