by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
February 6th, 2009 at 5:09 AM
Good News is That Gorkhaland mukhti JanMorcha has Thrown it’s Lot behind BJP and have promised to Work for The Success of BJP’s Candidates in Doar Region of West Bengal. Particularly in Darjeeling and New Jalpaiguri GJM can decide The Fate of The Candidates.
The Hitch is GJM wouldnt accept anything short of Statehood.
http://beacononline.wordpress.com/2009/01/31/gjms-poll-carrot-has-bjp-thinking-on-gorkhaland/
January 31st, 2009 at 12:06 AM
Well, in Rajasthan Had BJP edged congress in terms of seats, BJP could have made efforts to form The Govt.
January 30th, 2009 at 10:12 PM
After election in Rajasthan one person told me , B.J.P should have tried to form gov in Rajasthan. BJP did not try, this reflects BJP is following fundamentals of politics. To sit in opposition is more beneficial. These matter congress should understand.
January 30th, 2009 at 10:08 PM
1. Down time for BSP is going to be started very soon. In next assembly election BSP will not come in to power at any cost. If fundamentals of politics are followed by all parties.
January 30th, 2009 at 10:04 PM
1. Sitting together(Congress and Left) in Centre, is suicidal for Left in WB and Kerala. Unfortunately BJP is very-2 weak( zero) in WB and Kerala
And second, most of people(42%) in Kerala are muslim and christian.
Third reason Advani should have taken control of Kerala and WB to create the base.
Because of these reasons, BJP is not able to get huge no. of seats.
January 30th, 2009 at 9:54 PM
1. BJP fielded Vinay Katiyar against Sonia Gandhi. BJP’s aim was to consolitdate own votes. We were knowing very well, at any cost he can not win. Important thing is to consolidate own votes, that BLP did.
January 30th, 2009 at 9:49 PM
Big difference in State politics and Centre politics. Congress does not know basic of politics.
(1) Congress should not have alliance with SP( It is not realiable party).
If Congress fights less than 15 in U.P. It will be suicidal for Congress in U.P. In politics, never compromise with your vote banks and structure.
Congress is selling own blood for collecting food.
(2) BJP did not compromise with own vote bank on Amarnath Issue. Even though BJP has lost own partner in National Conference.
‘
(3) In politics, some time to sit in opposition is major part of politics.
Congress should learn.
(4) Congress should not have alliance with JDS in Karnatka. That way he can make JDS weak in Karnatka. After that there will direct fighting between BJP and Congress, In this case congress may perform good.
(5) Congress can not destroy BJP. Indira Gandhi was using this technique. This is different time, today opposition(BJP) is very-2 strong.
It has never happend in the histroy of India.
January 30th, 2009 at 9:34 PM
BSP can not come in centre even after 50 years also. It is only possible when major fighting will take place within BJP and Congress. But that time Same thing may happen with BSP. Each state of India is like country. Each state politics is different from others.
January 30th, 2009 at 9:29 PM
1. Openly Left and BJP will never come together. It will be major loss to Left in WB and Kerala.
2. B.J.P is not getting Muslim votes and dalit votes in U.P. BJP can not attract Muslim votes at any cost. How may BJP attract dalit. Before that BJP has to consolitdate Uppert cast, Gujjar, Jat and Backward Cast vote.
My question is
How may BJP attract dalit votes in U.P?
January 30th, 2009 at 4:56 PM
Promoting as Dept PM would be Suicidal to BJP. He doesnt have a clout even among dalits beyond a few constituencies in western UP.
ADMK and DMK are the two Dominant parties in TN and hence cant sit together on the same side while smaller parties switch loyalties.
BSP and SP in ’93 formed a pre-poll Alliance however post July 31st ’95, they have become bitter rivals.
Left and BJP were on The same side and rallied together on four different earlier occassions : ’67,’77,’84 and ’89
it’s Only after BJP became a Dominant Force that LF all of a sudden realized BJP is communal!!!
if congress becomes weak and BSP evolves as a principle force to oppose BJP after a Decade, then who knows, congress may ally with BJP
January 30th, 2009 at 9:38 AM
Hi Raj and Vikas,
Basically i belong to U.P.
(1)In U.P Mayawati was using abusive language against upper caste 10 years before publicly. And uppercaste supported Mayavati. In today politics anything is possible.
(2) Left was real opponent of Congress in India, left is not real opponent of B.J.P. After that left supported Congress in Centre.In today politics anything is possible.
(3) After pancayat election Two B.J.P elected members supported left in West Bengal.In today politics anything is possible.
(4) SP was saying Kalyan Singh( Core BJP person)is communal. Now Kalyan is secular.
This is open support. Everyone is knowing. If left will try to stop BJP in centre, he will be no more. Am i right or wrong. One day left and congress will sit together in WestBengal and Kerala.B.J.P will be main opposition party. It is good for left B.J.P should form gov centre.
Openly left can not support BJP. From background it can support to BJP for 2 or 3 seat. In return left will try to get 5 seats from BJP( how, If TMC field SC candidate then BJP will also field SC candidate and SC vote will be divided, left will get advantage of this.)
I know it easy to think but very difficult to do. It is good for left’s future.
============================
Q 1: If no one is able to muster 273 seats. Will immediately election take place or what will be the option. If immediately election takes place who will be major looser?
Ans: Major looser who are not alliance of either BJP or congress.
If immediately election takes place left can not get more than 20 seats.
Mayawati can not get more than 15 seats in UP. PDP,TDP,TMC, TRS and PRP will no more exist. For LokSatta, ther will be no “Lok” and no “Satta”, Only reliable partners of BJP and Congress will exist.
Q2. Congress and BJP can not sit together.I see only .000001% possibility. Is it true?
Q3. Neither Congress nor BJP will support third front priminister.
I see only .000001% possibility. Is it true?
Ans: If BJP supports third front candidate for 2 years. It will be suicidal for BJP. Same thing for congress.
If BJP does, it will be major.
Q4 : DMK and AIADMK can not sit together in centre. Is it true?
Q5: SP and BSP can not sit together in centre. Is it true?
Q6 :Congress and (TDP+TRS) can not sit together in centre. Is it true?
It is centre politics not state politics.
==========================
Personally i do not see any alliance can form gov. If it happened, it would be major blow for indian economy. Advani is the only person who can improve indian economy( BJP can form govt without the help of Left, left is big blow for indian economy. Congress can not form gov without the help Left). That is why BJP has to get AP(10) + TN(10) + Kerala(5) + WB(10) + UP(35) without the support of any other alliance except in UP. Pratically BJP may get AP(3) + TN(1) + Kerala(1) + WB(1) + UP(15). I am knowing very well.
That is why i am thinking in other way. What are these
(1) Rajnikant as Deputy PM, may give 10 seats. I do not know whether it possible or not. But to accept Mayawati as PM for BJP not possible.
(2) Ashok Pradhan as Deputy PM, may give 35 seats in UP. I do not know whether it possible or not. But to accept Mayawati as PM for BJP not possible. Mayawati would not support BJP because of Muslim votes it will be suicidal for Mayawati.
(3) Or Advani should fight from AP or Kerala. This activity may give 10 seats in AP and 5 in Kerala. I do not know whether it possible or not. But to accept Mayawati as PM for BJP not possible. Mayawati would not support BJP because of Muslim votes it will be suicidal for Mayawati.
(4) Innner understanding between Left and BJP will be beneficial for both. I think more beneficial for Left. No need to show it public. I do not know whether it possible or not. But to accept Mayawati as PM for BJP not possible. Mayawati would not support BJP because of Muslim votes it will be suicidal for Mayawati.
or
Other wise after election BJP will has to accept Mayawati as PM or Deputy PM. TMC would not support BJP in centre, otherwise TMC can defeat Left in assembly election( if BJP performs very well in WB, then BJP can get support of TMC).If BJP performs very well in assembly election in AP then TDP will support BJP(In return BJP will support TDP in state assembly). TDP can not abstain at the time of confidence vote otherwise TDP will loose base in AP(BJP will say TDP is having inner understanding with Congress.). There is no credibility of DMK and AIADMK. In my opinion best way for BJP and Congress is to go for immediate election.
Last option is country without gov.
January 30th, 2009 at 3:11 AM
Ritesh Ji, Your Analysis looks Sweet
may I know how old are You?
You seem to be a kid and a novice
anyway, let’s talk with Reality in mind.
being Pro BJP we may have our own analysis but it wont work that way as ground realities are rather different.
BJP in the south Apart from Karnaaka can best bet on AP particularly on Telangana And Select Pockets in AP such as Visakhapatnam, Nellore by fielding M Venkiah Naidu fro there as Nellore has become a general seat post delimitation and by fielding the former MP From Nellore in one of the reserved Assembly Constituencies
Though Praja Rajyam initially sent shocks , it’s now losing it’s clout and many feel they may just be limited to the four districts of Guntur, Krishna and the two Godavari Districts.
January 30th, 2009 at 3:06 AM
NO Way!!
It’s Wishful thinking to expect Left supporting BJP to suppress Trinamool INC lliance.
Further, Though The Media is portraying mamata didi as a Force, I dont think she would be able to consolidate ehr position except in Singur Nandigram Zones
North Bengal is still A Citadel for commies and Only INC has some chances in select constituencies there.
Both BJP as well as Trinamool Congress are strong and are limited to south, western parts and central Districts of West Bengal.
Here, BJP should take full advantage and garner as many votes as possible and should Not worry about Victory but of Vote Share.
If BJP Can Muster 20% of Popular Vote, which it can do so this time as Upper Castes are completely fed up with congress for the OBC Quota and irked by commies support, And because WB has an Overwhelming Upper Caste/Forward Caste Population, BJP can make inroads and Most Important, BJP Should Not lose the poor Forward Caste votes to mayawati
January 29th, 2009 at 11:57 PM
Kerala Analysis
============
I have done very good analysis. How BJP may get 10 seats.
Left should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC and Congress. If not congress then TMC.
If in centre left gives support to congress then it will be last time of left in Indian politics. Best option for left, It should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC. That way left may get support of B.J.P to get some seats at the cost of TC. That way BJP may secure 10 seats in WB.
January 29th, 2009 at 11:46 PM
Keral Analysis
============
I have done very good analysis. How BJP may get 10 seats.
Left should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC and Congress. If not congress then TMC.
If in centre left gives support to congress then it will be last time of left in Indian politics. Best option for left, It should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC. That way left may get support of B.J.P to get some seats at the cost of TC. That way BJP may secure 10 seats in WB.
January 29th, 2009 at 11:44 PM
I have done very good analysis. How BJP may get 5 seats in Kerala.
Left should support B.J.P from background to defeat congress.
If in centre left gives support to congress then it will be last time of left in Indian politics. Best option for left, It should support B.J.P from background to defeat congress. That way left may get support of B.J.P to get some seats at the cost of congress. That way BJP may secure 10 seats in WB.
January 29th, 2009 at 11:32 PM
I have done very good analysis. How BJP may get 10 seats.
Left should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC and Congress. If not congress then TMC.
If in centre left gives support to congress then it will be last time of left in Indian politics. Best option for left, It should support B.J.P from background to defeat TMC. That way left may get support of B.J.P to get some seats at the cost of TC. That way BJP may secure 10 seats in WB.
January 29th, 2009 at 11:09 PM
Try to include more dissident of Left and TMC congress.
January 29th, 2009 at 11:09 PM
Try to include more dissident of B.J.P.
January 29th, 2009 at 10:47 PM
Good News for BJP Well Wishers, Particularly Those like me and Ritesh Ji who are concerned of BJP’s lack of a Possitive Attitude towards This State!!!
BJP has announced a list of 23 Candidates for The Lok Sabha Polls of Which17 are from West Bengal!!! Which Means There would be Mass contact programmes and door to door campaign and some Yatras and Public Gatherings in This state as well, which has Not seen much of BJP Activity in recent months.
Another Good News is that Sri Tapan Sikdar is returning to BJP in WB Along with His Supporters.
The List Includes:
1. former CPM MP from Barasat — Bratin Sengupta Who has fair chances of Winning
2. Satya Brata Mukherjee from Krishna Nagar, from where He is Sure to Win this time around
3.Tataghat Roy from Kolkatta North where He is likely to face md. salim, hence, if BJP can polarize votes, He can Win from here
4. From Darjeeling, BJP has announced former IPS Officer Dawa Sherpa
in These four constituencies BJP Should Work Hard try to Win Them
Another Potential Winnable seat is DumDum where BJP is likely to field Tapan Sikdar