by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
February 26th, 2009 at 8:15 AM
Dear Raj Bhai,
When projected PM of India is Sindhi, they don’t need local Sindhi candidate. The marwari n sindhi population is a traditional voter for BJP. Still, I feel they need to stress on the unholy alliance of Congress & Communist.
Do you know how many seats they are contesting this time. I hope they get atleast 10% vote share.
February 26th, 2009 at 7:30 AM
In Bengal, Tapan Sikdar should be Made In Charge of BJP as He is The Only one Who is Strongly Opposed to Mamta Banerjee in Bengal BJP.
Also, Concentrate on congress Strongholds more than communist strongholds.
The North and Inner Bengal Are The Potential Zones for BJP’s Growth.
Bring in Modi in A Rural Bengal Constituency and Also in Sindhi Dominated Areas of Kolkatta.
BJP Should Seriously Consider, A Sindhi in Jadavpur, as This Area has Considerable Sindhi Population.
In The Posh Areas of Jadavpur, If The People come out in Large Numbers, BJP would Certainly Win.
February 25th, 2009 at 11:14 PM
In West Bengal, BJP should Focus in Rural Areas.
2008 Panchayat Elec tions have Indicated The Inclination of Rural Bengal to BJP.
Besides, Kolkatta(The Only Urban Centre in Bengal), BJP should focus extremely in interior Bengal and Particularly The Rural Area.
Remember, BJP Gained in Karnataka Largely because , in Karnataka until recently(i.e., until 2008), BJP has largely Been A Rural Party.
The same Should be The Approach of BJP in Bengal.
February 25th, 2009 at 4:49 PM
Sikdar spells the bean, Uma Bharathi to return to BJP!!!!
It is g8 new for Vikas, if she contests from Aligarh
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/will-contest-from-dum-dum-says-tapan-sikdar/427922/
February 12th, 2009 at 3:05 PM
Hi
Union Territories list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or change it
Andaman & Nicobar ————- 70%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli———— 50% (put 400% efforts)(BNP)
Lakshadweep———————– 75%(put 400% efforts)
Chandigarh ————————- 70%-80%
Daman and Diu——————– 75%
Pondicherry————————- 0%
February 12th, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Hi,
NothEast list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or
change it
Inner Manipur ———— 80%
Shillong——————— 30%
Tura————————– 90%
Nagaland——————-100%(NPF)
Sikkim———————- 0%(SDF)
Mizoram——————— 80%(MNF)
Tripura West—————–0%
Tripura East——————0%
Arunachal West————–100%
Arunachal East—————100%
February 12th, 2009 at 8:41 AM
Hi,
In Lakshadweep it NDA puts efforts it may win this seat by seeing last
performance. Today’s situation i do not know.
February 12th, 2009 at 8:39 AM
Hi
Union Territories list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or change it
Andaman & Nicobar ————- 70%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli———— 50% (put 400% efforts)
Lakshadweep———————– 75%(put 400% efforts)
Chandigarh ————————- 70%-80%
Daman and Diu——————– 75%
Pondicherry————————- 0%
February 12th, 2009 at 8:35 AM
Hi.
After elcetion BNP(Dadra and Nagar Haveli) may support BJP.
SDC(Sikkim) is with BJP or Congress
February 12th, 2009 at 8:09 AM
Daman and Diu : BJP has 60% winning chances
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 40%
Chandigarh: 70-80%
Andaman and Nicobar Islands :70-75%
Lakshadep(JD-U):40%
Forget about Pondicherry
February 12th, 2009 at 7:39 AM
Hi
Union Territories list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or change it
Andaman & Nicobar ————- 70%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli————
Lakshadweep———————–
Chandigarh ————————-
Daman and Diu——————–
Pondicherry————————-
February 12th, 2009 at 7:34 AM
Hi,
NothEast list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or
change it
Inner Manipur ———— 80%
Shillong——————— 30%
Tura————————– 90%
Nagaland——————-100%(NPF)
Sikkim———————- 0%(SDF)
Mizoram——————— 80%(MNF)
Tripura West—————–0%
Tripura East——————0%
February 12th, 2009 at 7:31 AM
Hi,
NothEast list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or
change it
Inner Manipur ———— 80%
Shillong——————— 30%
Tura————————– 90%
Nagaland——————-100%(NPF)
Sikkim———————- 0%(SDF)
Mizoram——————— 80%(MNF)
February 12th, 2009 at 7:22 AM
Hi,
NothEast list for BJP( winning chances of BJP). Are you(Raj and Viaks) agree or
change it
Inner Manipur ———— 80%
Shillong——————— 30%
Tura————————– 90%
Nagaland——————-100%(NPF)
Sikkim———————- 0%(SDF)
February 12th, 2009 at 7:18 AM
Hi,
SDC is with BJP or Congress.
February 12th, 2009 at 3:44 AM
Manipur- BJP can win one seat, the one contested by former CM, Nepamacha Singh
In Meghalaya, if PA Sangma decides to leave one seat for BJP, then BJP has a chance of wresting the seat from congress. But, for that PA Sangma should campaign for BJP Candidate.
Nagaland, the alliance will win, it has only one seat.
Sikkim — NO Way for BJP
BJP should instead announce they are for Gorkhaland(already Gorkhaland JanMukht Morcha, which is fighting for the Hill state there has announced it’s plan of supporting BJP and work for BJP’s success) and try to Win Darjeeling and New Jalpaiguri
Also, BJP Should take full advantage of anti-incumbency against PriyaRanjan Das Munshi in Raigunj and rake up issues of Bangladeshi Infiltration and Polarize the votes from here.
In This region, LF has little influence and is considered a congress stronghold.
Therefore, BJP should first get into Congress Strongholds and wrest the seats held by congress and make full use of local anti-incumbecy as well as National Anti-Incumbency against UPA
February 9th, 2009 at 12:52 PM
Hi Raj,
could you tell me chances of BJP.
Manipur — chances of BJP
Meghalaya — PA sangma is having alliance with BJP or not and chances of BJP
Nagaland –chances of BJP or alliance
Sikkim — chances of BJP
February 7th, 2009 at 11:05 AM
Good news if BJP is able to manage properly.
February 6th, 2009 at 10:59 PM
Two . Darjeeling for Sure and New JalPai Guri
in a state, where BJP has Not have a single legislature, A Win irrespective of the number will be a Morale Boast.
Further, BJP’s Win will be left’s failure.
Also, BJP Should Focus on seats where the incumbent MPs are congressi, such as Raigunj(priya Ranjan das munshi) where, Bangladeshi Infiltration Issue can come in Handy
February 6th, 2009 at 7:58 AM
How many seats BJP may win with the help of Gorkhaland mukhti JanMorcha