Promise of Reason

244 Responses to “Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing”

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1. 84
   Soma Says:
   March 7th, 2009 at 7:27 AM

   BJP-AGP alliance will win almost all seats in Assam. Congress is not in a position to compete against this strong alliance.

2. 83
   Soma Says:
   March 7th, 2009 at 7:26 AM

   West Bengal will witness a keen direct fight between LF and TC-Congress alliance. BJP may not get more than 10 % of the votes even in seats like Malda and Dum dum. LF will loose atleast 10 seats this time.

3. 82
   Soma Says:
   March 7th, 2009 at 7:24 AM

   BJD will win easily if it doesn’t have an alliance with BJP.BJP will loose so badly if things go like this in Orissa….Congress is unable to get more than 30% of the seats this time also.

4. 81
   AK Says:
   March 6th, 2009 at 9:47 PM

   BJP Planning a “Nano” Campaign, once it rolls out on March 23 rd.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Move-over-rath-LK-wants-a-Nano-ride/articleshow/4231703.cms

   They should bring this to West Bengal and rub salt to the wounds of TC & CPM. I would love that.

5. 80
   AK Says:
   March 6th, 2009 at 9:21 PM

   Overconfidence can kill you, it proved so for Lalu in 2005 assembly elections.

   Navin Patnaik thinks he can win elections alone. BJP should not compromise, why should it, it is not going with bowl. If they don’t agree , it is better to hurt them, rather than to oblize.

   If they let me has his say, tommorow JD(U) will come , next day AGP will come and then every tom dick and harry will threaten them.

   They can swap seats LS/Assembly at the max, but otherwise no compromise.

   It is good the way BJP has responded to JD(U) threat by giving it back to them,

   http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/politics/bjp-jd-u-differ-over-seat-sharing-in-bihar-lead_100163587.html

6. 79
   AK Says:
   March 6th, 2009 at 8:12 PM

   I heard the latest , BJP wants to contest 11 seats ( Up 2 ) and in return will leave 25 assemby seats for BJD which it contested last time.

   I think that should do as, BJD is keen on gaining strength in state, where as BJP is more keep on National Politics..

7. 78
   RAJ Says:
   March 6th, 2009 at 7:09 PM

   Am Concerned about Orissa.
   There are reports That BJP and BJD Alliance is on Rocks!!!
   if BJD snaps Ties with BJP congress would sweep there

8. 77
   AK Says:
   March 6th, 2009 at 6:45 PM

   Tapan Sikdar joins BJP, will contest from Dum Dum. Now looks like BJP will be able to open its account in WB.

   http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/politics/former-central-minister-sikdar-rejoins-bjp_100163540.html

9. 76
   RAJ Says:
   March 2nd, 2009 at 4:29 PM

   Bishnupur ByPoll. CPM lost Badly despite fielding a muslim candidate
   BJP it seems worked for Trinamool’s success here.

10. 75
    RAJ Says:
    March 2nd, 2009 at 9:49 AM

    Another Good News : trinamool congress and congress have formalized alliance.
    This would Only Benefit BJP in Regions where BJP has a Stake in Bengal since the communal muslim vote would split between upa and left.

11. 74
    lkadvani.in Says:
    February 27th, 2009 at 10:35 AM

    Vikasji,

    Please give the detail analysis of seats around Lucknow.

    BJP yesterday has announced candidates for some more seats in UP, you take on the same?

12. 73
    lkadvani.in Says:
    February 27th, 2009 at 10:33 AM

    RJD has already started polarisation!!!

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/Patna/MLA-was-not-called-Pakistani-rules-Speaker/articleshow/4196527.cms

13. 72
    VIKAS KUMAR Says:
    February 27th, 2009 at 10:28 AM

    Dear Maidros,
    I appreciate your so well done fact based scientific and informative analysis on assam. It has educated me a lot. I always look for micro analysis because I firmly believe it is more important to get highest no. of votes among all candidates in maximum of seats rather getting high vote % at state level.

14. 71
    RAJ Says:
    February 27th, 2009 at 8:40 AM

    well, Dear Maidros, Except for Guwahati Seat, BJP-AGP Alliance has been Finalized.
    BJP Will fight in 7, AGP in 6
    The Talks for Guwahati are in progress.
    Most likely, BJP to get Guwahati Seat.

15. 70
    maidros Says:
    February 27th, 2009 at 5:58 AM

    NDA Election Prospects in Assam

    Assumptions:
    The principal assumption here is that the BJP and the AGP work out an alliance or at least a seat-sharing adjustment. Given that both of them share the Hindu vote bank – and mainly middle class Hindus at that – it is clear to me that they will hang together or will be hung separately. Assuming the AGP-BJP arrangement, I am working out my analysis based on past performances of the parties in the Lok Sabha elections and the previous (2006) assembly elections. For the moment, I have not included any data about the candidates (since they are principally unavailable) as a factor in determining the outcomes of the elections. Therefore, I will focus on the mainly on the AGP+BJP votes, assuming that they can transfer their votes effectively to each other. While the BJP can probably transfer its votes to the AGP, it is not certain to me that the other way holds true as well. However, assuming that the bulk of their votes do transfer, I have done a AGP+BJP vote and checked how comfortable that arithmetic would be for the duo. I have considered three previous Lok Sabha elections (1998, 1999, 2004) and one assembly election (2006) to check how the combination might fare. Further, the Congress has been ruling for nearly ten years. Anti-incumbency factor will work against it.

    Update: I have been reading reports that the AGP and the BJP have indeed reached a seat sharing agreement for 13 of the 14 seats in Assam. The BJP seems to be contesting Karimganj, Silchar, Diphu, Dhubri, Nowgong, Mangaldoi, and Jorhat, while the AGP will contest Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Tezpur, Kaliabor, Dibrugarh and Lakhimpur. The fate of the Gauhati seat hangs in the balance. Well, good for the NDA. I am glad they managed to work out this bit.
    End update

    For convenience sake, I will be referring to the AGP-BJP arrangement as the NDA, (although the AGP has not formally joined the NDA).

    There are three principal formations in the fray – the NDA, the Congress and the AUDF. How the AUDF will react will determine the fate of the other two, as far as I can see.

    Karimganj
    Spread across the districts of Hailakandi and Karimganj in the Barak valley, this is a seat where Muslims are a decisive factor one way or the other (both districts have Muslim populations in the late 40s or early 50 percent). This constituency usually features a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. The AGP has a reasonable, but not a great presence in region – it has never won the seat in the three elections, nor has it come second in any of the previous three elections, and nor does it control any of the assembly segments that fall in the area.

    In the past three elections, the Congress has won all the three times, but the margin has usually been small enough, so the AGP votes, if they transfer to the BJP, might just pip the BJP past the post. The previous Lok Sabha performances indicate that while the BJP performance has been impressive, there is a worrying factor that the margin between the Congress and the BJP has been widening. In 1998, the difference between the two parties was a mere 10,000 votes. In 1999, the margin had increased to 35,000. In 2004, it was more than 90,000. The good news for the NDA is that in the two of the three elections that the AGP contested there, the AGP vote has been sufficient enough to push the BJP past the Congress. However, the NDA total vote is coming down steadily in comparison to the Congress vote (both as percentages and in absolute terms). In 1998, the NDA total vote would have seen it sail past the Congress comfortably. The 2004 vote of the two parties combined, on the other hand, would see barely be enough to beat the Congress vote. As things stand, the balance would be on a knife edge.

    In the last assembly elections, of the eight constituencies, the BJP won three, the AUDF two and the Congress two, with the last taken by an independent. But what is curious is that the AUDF ended up taking a large part of the Muslim vote (traditional for the Congress), and the Congress was pushed to third place in four constituencies and fourth place in one. If this happens, then the Congress might be in trouble. Even so, it is important to emphasise that the combined NDA vote and the Congress vote were nearly on par, despite the AUDF taking a large bite out of the Congress vote. This implies that the NDA has its work cut out for it. The one solace for the BJP is that it has always done better in National elections than in State assemblies.

    Prediction: Toss up. If the Muslim vote splits between the Congress and the AUDF, the NDA could get it. Otherwise, it will remain with the Congress.

    Silchar:
    Another seat in the Barak valley, this seat spans the Cachar district. This is another seat where the fight is directly between the Congress and the BJP. The AGP does not seem to have much of a presence in the seat – it has never contested the seat in the last three Lok Sabha elections, preferring to leave it to its alliance partners in the Third Front (or not contest at all). This is a seat where the BJP has won once (1998, Kabindra Purkayastha) and the Congress twice (1999, 2004, Santosh Mohan Deb). The BJP pipped the Congress to the post in 1998, and the Congress did the same in 2004. Only in 1999 did the Congress win by a comfortable majority. The Congress candidate has been representing the constituency for 10 years, so anti-incumbency might work against it. Besides, this was before the appearance of the AUDF, so that is one more factor in favour of the NDA.

    The assembly elections were a close affair. Of the seven assembly segments in the constituency, the Congress represents four, the BJP two and the AUDF one. The total NDA vote is about 15,000 less than the total Congress vote, but direct correlations between the assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections don’t work. The AUDF was a factor of some significance in only two of the seven assembly segments, so it is not as strong here as it was in the Karimganj constituency. It might be able to play spoiler though, in the event of it fielding a strong Muslim candidate.

    Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA: However, the NDA has its work cut out for it here. It needs to put its act together. If it manages to do so, it will win.

    Diphu (Autonomous District):
    An expansive seat spanning two large districts (Karbi Anglong, and Diphu), this is a place where neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much presence. It has been won twice by Dr. Joyanta Rongpi (from the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC), and the CPI (ML). In 2004, it was won by the Congress. The BJP has contested twice from here, and has been in the fourth spot both the times, winning between 12 and 15 percent of the vote. The AGP has never contested from the seat.

    Of the five assembly segments, the Congress has four, and the ASDC one.

    Prediction: This seat is going to witness a direct fight between the Congress and the ASDC, or a triangular fight among the Congress, the CPI (ML) and the ASDC. The NDA does not have much of a chance here.

    Dhubri:
    This seat is in lower Assam, spanning the district of Dhubri and part of Goalpara. Both districts a re Muslim majority districts, and the Congress has been winning here consecutively in the last three Lok Sabha elections. Both AGP and the BJP have their bases in the seat, but their presence is not very strong. The Congress margin of victory was more than 1 lakh in two of the three previous elections.and never has the combined NDA vote surpassed the Congress vote.

    The assembly elections tell an interesting story. The AUDF has risen phenomenally in this constituency, making the contest interesting this time. Of the ten assembly segments in the seat, the AUDF holds three, the Congress two, independents hold two, the NCP, the Loko Sanmilon and the AGP one apiece. The situation here is complicated by the considerable presence of the NCP, which won one and put up a strong challenge in three more. The total votes of the Congress, the AUDF and the NDA add up to equal numbers nearly. Does this mean that the NDA has a serious chance of upstaging the Congress and/or the AUDF? It is hard to say, but the contest is likely to be triangular here, with the Congress, the AUDF and the NDA all having serious presence.

    However, of the ten MLAs, eight are Muslims and it would be foolish to believe that they would help the NDA in any way. They might even ensure against splits by resorting to tactical voting.

    Prediction: Likely to remain with the Congress. It all depends on how much the AUDF can get the Muslim vote. The NCP, while a serious challenger in the Assembly, might not be able to do as well in the Lok Sabha. The only way for the NDA to get the seat is to pray that the Muslim vote splits nearly equally between the Congress and the AUDF (and possibly even the NCP), while it gets the entire Hindu vote. Not a very likely scenario.

    Kokrajhar:
    A large constituency in the north west of Assam, it spans all of Kokrajhar district, and parts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is the home turf of the independent candidate, Bwiswamuthiary. He has been winning consecutively since the last three elections.Neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much of a chance here. They were in the fourth, or fifth spots when the contested and they have not contested in two of the three elections from here. The Congress does not seem in any better situation – their performance is nothing to write home about either.

    Of the ten assembly segments, eight are held by independents, and one apiece by the CPI (ML) and the AGP.

    Prediction: None of the three groups seem to matter here. Overall, not much chance for the NDA from this constituency.

    Barpeta:
    Another constituency in lower Assam, it spans across the three districts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. Another constituency where the Muslim factor looms large, even though they are a majority only in Barpeta district. This is the first constituency (of those surveyed thus far) where both the BJP and the AGP have a decent base. In the three previous, the Congress has won all the three times, and all times with fairly comfortable margins (the smallest margin is around 70,000). However, the margin of victory has been steadily coming down. Further, the AGP had not contested this seat twice (preferring to leave it to the CPI(M)), and when it did contest, it put up a very impressive performance. The combined NDA vote in the last elections was comfortably larger than the Congress vote.

    Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP holds five, the Congress four and an independent one. The AUDF is a considerable factor even here, and can only work to the detriment of the Congress. The cumulative NDA vote in the constituency is comfortably greater than the Congress vote.

    Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA. They need to work well together to make sure that they don’t fritter away that advantage. If all remains well, and the combine works properly, the NDA should get the seat.

    Gauhati:
    The capital of Assam. The heart of the state. The constituency covers most of Kamrup, and parts of Nalbari and Goalpara. This is a place where the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have strong bases. The Congress has won the constituency twice and the BJP once. However, it has been the AGP and the BJP ruining each other’s chances when the Congress won. The combined AGP BJP vote should see it comfortably home, and their combined vote has always been more than one lakh more than the Congress vote.

    Of the ten segments in the constituency, the AGP controls four, the Congress five and an independent one. However, the BJP and AGP vote combined far outclass the Congress vote. While the BJP didd not win any seats in the assembly in the constituency, it has a strong base all over the constituency. It can easily contribute to a NDA victory. The AUDF is a factor of some importance (but not much) and can only contribute to the detriment of the Congress.

    Prediction: Strong advantage to the NDA. Unless they screw up royally, they should win this seat easily, whether it is the BJP which is contesting the constituency, or the AGP.

    Mangaldoi:
    Spread over parts of Nalbari and Kamrup and the entirety of Darrang, this is another constituency in the heart of Assam. Of the three previous elections, the Congress has won twice (1998, 1999) and the BJP once (2004). However, this is another seat where the combined AGP-BJP vote has almost always surpassed the Congress vote. The Congress, the BJP and the AGP all have a strong base in the region. But any two combined could easily outclass the third. The NDA should be able to achieve this. However, the anti-incumbency factor might work against the BJP, but there is talk that Narayan Borkotoki, the sitting MP, might be replaced.

    The assembly results in the previous elections are a little strange. Of the ten assembly segments, six are held by independents, and two apiece by the Congress and the AGP. The BJP put up a reasonable performance in the area in the last assembly elections, but failed to open its account. But together, the cumulative NDA vote is far greater than the Congress vote. It is also unlikely that independents will fare equally well in the Lok Sabha elections. The AUDF is a factor of some consideration here, but again, not very powerful. However, its performance seems to be equally good all over the constituency.

    Predictions: Strong advantage NDA. As in Gauhati, unless they screw up royally, they should win this seat.

    Tezpur:
    Covering the entire district of Sonitpur, and parts of Nagaon and Lakhimpur, this is another district in north Central Assam. The Muslim vote is of some significance in the Nagaon district. As in the previous cases, all three parties have a strong presence in the area. The Congress has won all three Lok Sabha elections, but the combined AGP-BJP vote should easily propel it past the Congress.

    Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds four, the AGP three, and the BJP two. The combined AGP-BJP vote is well above the Congress vote. Add to that, the AUDF will play spoilsport for the Congress and the latter’s fate may well be sealed.

    Prediction: Strong advantage NDA. As in the previous two cases, unless they do something really stupid, they should win this one.

    Nowgong:
    The constituency covers the Marigaon constituency and parts of Nagaon. This is another constituency in central Assam and all the three have strong bases here, along with the AUDF. Nagaon has a strong presence of Muslims, so the AUDF has a committed base here. Of the three previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has won twice, and the Congress once. The combined BJP AGP vote should outstrip the Congress vote hands down, since it has always done so. However, the BJP candidate, Rajen Gohain, has been representing the constituency for ten years, so he might face some anti-incumbency.

    The assembly results present an interesting picture. Of the nine assembly segments, the AUDF and the Congress have three apiece, while the AGP has two and the BJP one. However, in most segments, the combined NDA vote is greater than the vote share of either of the other two competitors.

    Prediction: Slight advantage NDA. If they can retain their base, they should be able to ensure a victory. The split of Muslim votes can only aid them, to whatever extent it occurs.

    Kaliabor:
    Covering Golaghat and parts of Jorhat, this is a constituency bordering Nagaland, and the home turf of the Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi. The Congress has won all the three previous Lok Sabha elections. In the first two, the margin of victory was greater than the combined votes of the BJP and the AGP, but in 2004 elections, the NDA vote was greater than the Congress vote. Further, the victory margin of the Congress has been steadily declining and the Gogois may find that their home turf is no longer as secure as they thought it might be. This area reasonable presence of all the four principal participants – the AGP, the BJP, the Congress and the AUDF. The latter is present in only parts of the constituency.

    Of the ten assembly segments, the AGP holds five, the Congress three and the AUDF and an independent one apiece. The Congress vote is surpassed by the NDA vote.

    Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA, but this is the backyard of the Chief Minister is not easily wrested. If the NDA choose a good opponent to the Congress, they might well succeed.

    Jorhat:
    Covering parts of Jorhat district and all of Sibsagar district, this is the constituency from where the present Chief Minister has been elected (he represents Titabar, which falls in Jorhat constituency). This constituency should witness a close fight. The AUDF is mostly irrelevant here, so it is going to be a straight fight between the NDA and the Congress. The AGP and the BJP, along with the Congress have their bases. The Congress has been winning since the previous three elections, and the Congress vote share has been nearly equal to or greater than the combined votes of the other two. On the other hand, the Congress might pay for being the incumbent..

    Of the ten assembly segments, the Congress holds seven, the AGP one, the CPI one, and an independent one. In many segments, the fight was directly between the Congress and the AGP, with the BJP being a distant third. However, the BJP usually held enough votes to tip the balance in favour of the AGP.

    Prediction: Toss up. In fact, the Congress might even hold a small advantage. It is going to be an intense fight. NDA had better work together and pray that the anti-incumbency factor aids them.

    Dibrugarh:
    Covering most of Dibrugarh district and half of Tinsukhia, this is a constituency in upper Assam. All three parties – the Congress, the AGP and the BJP are strong here. The AUDF is irrelevant here. The Congress has won twice, and the AGP once. In the last election, the Congress was pushed to the third place. The combined NDA vote share has almost always surpassed the Congress vote share. Add to that, the anti-incumbency factor that the Congress must be facing and it is a recipe for disaster for the Congress. However, the only worrisome factor is that the AGP won the seat last time over, and they need to take precautions against anti-incumbency working against their candidate.

    Of the nine assembly segments in this region, all three parties did well. The Congress holds six of the nine assembly segments, the BJP two, and the AGP one. The combined NDA vote is almost always above the Congress vote.

    Prediction: Strong advantage NDA. They have all the advantages they can get here. They just need to capitalise on it.

    Lakhimpur:
    An expansive constituency spread over five districts of Lakhimpur, Tinsukhia, Jorhat, Dibrugarh and all of Dhemaji, this is a varied constituency. The Congress won here in ’98 and ’99, but the seat was snatched from it by the AGP. All three – the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have a good following here. The AUDF is completely irrelevant here. Two anti-incumbencies are at work. The one against the state, which will work against the Congress and one against the AGP, which had won the seat last time. The combined AGP BJP vote here has always been comfortably greater than the Congress vote share, even at the peak of the Congress wave in 1998.

    Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds six, and independents three. However, the Congress victory is attributable to the BJP and the AGP cutting into each other’s votes. The combined NDA vote is greater than the Congress votes in five of the nine constituencies. Further, independents do not count in Lok Sabha all that much.

    Prediction: Slight Advantage NDA. They just need to play their cards right and convert their advantage to a victory.

    Overall predictions:
    Sure NDA seats (4) – Gauhati, Mangaldoi, Tezpur, Dibrugarh;
    Likely NDA seats (5) – Silchar, Barpeta, Nowgong, Kaliabor, Lakhimpur
    Toss up seats (2) – Karimganj, Jorhat
    Unlikely, but possible NDA seats (1) – Dhubri
    Very little chance for NDA seats (2) – Diphu, Kokrajhar

16. 69
    AK Says:
    February 26th, 2009 at 11:09 AM

    I agree, I just hate Mamta.
    WB lost on such a gr project in Nano , coz of her.
    Remember, when illegal bangladeshi immigrants were being deported from mumbai, the train was stopped by mamta & TC in West bengal.

    Bloodly vote bank politics…

17. 68
    RAJ Says:
    February 26th, 2009 at 11:06 AM

    Dear Ritesh Bhai, BJP should give A Damn to Mamta in Bengal and Move Independently.
    Trinamool Would Contest A Lion’s Share.

18. 67
    ritesh gupta Says:
    February 26th, 2009 at 11:04 AM

    Hi Raj,
    If TMC can win 10 seats in WB. In that case BJP should leave only 10 seats and ramaining one BJP should put candidate.In that case TMC will put candidates with BJP also.

    Advantage
    —————
    1.BJP would able to make base in WB.
    2.If BJP’s partner wins election, they will support BJP in centre.
    3.BJP may win or may not win. No problem. Atleast BJP may get base.
    4. Raj– My aim is only BJP should create base in WB. Winning of BJP is not important for me in WB, If Mamta gets 10 seats.

19. 66
    RAJ Says:
    February 26th, 2009 at 10:02 AM

    Dear Ritesh,I will Reply in South India Forum

20. 65
    ritesh gupta Says:
    February 26th, 2009 at 9:52 AM

    Hi Raj,
    In alliance with BJP, how many seats MDMK and DMDK can win.

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