by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 8th, 2009 at 1:05 PM
Hi Raj,
I am 100% agree with you. Mamta may be neutral.
In telangana TRS(If TRS is not going to fight on that seat)and TDP(If TDP is not going to fight on that seat) will cast vote in favour of BJP.
March 8th, 2009 at 1:04 PM
Dear AK and Ritesh, BJP is Opposing both PRP and TDP in AndhraPradesh. And it’s Good BJP is going Alone and is Coming up as a Force particularly in The Telangana Region of AP
March 8th, 2009 at 1:02 PM
Well in Orissa, Congress has a votebase of 35% and BJD about 32% with JMM and Communists and NCP, Both BJD Led Third Front in Orissa and Congress would be at Neck and Neck
BJP at the most has 12-14% of VoteBank eve in The Improved Scenario
March 8th, 2009 at 12:59 PM
in Most likely, it is PRP and TRS Voters who would Vote for BJP particularly in Seats where Commies are fighting in Grand Alliance as TRS has decided to work Against Communists who are dead against Telangana
Mamata will have a wait and watch policy, if Mamata gets only 7-8 Parliamentary seats, she would Joinm NDA, if Trinamool-congress combine wins over 18 Lok Sabha Seats, she would maintain her alliance with congress eyeing 2011 Assembly Elections
March 8th, 2009 at 12:57 PM
Hi AK,
Oppose TMC and TDP in a intelligent manner. When BJP will get good time, then use abusive language against TMC and TDP.
March 8th, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Dear Ritesh,
I disagree on that. When CB Naidu says publicly that he won’t support BJP, why should BJP not expose him and tell people of Telengana that he opposed the creation of state all the time NDA was ruling.
TMC is opportunist , even if you slap mamta in public, she’ll come back if she sees an opportunity. He has walked in and out of coalition any time, give me one reason BJP should not ridicule her. Simply to prevent Communist for getting more seats.
I hate communist, but I respect them. Coz they stand for what they believe. So unless BJP kicks butt of TC & TDP , it will never rise in WB & AP, as today they are the principle opposition.
BSP could rise in UP after attacking both SP & BJP, not just SP.
That Naveen bastard is lucky that his 5 yr state rule is getting over simultaneously. Had it been in 2nd / 3rd year, he wouldn’t have opened his mouth. I just want BJP to be kingmaker in Orissa . keeping fingers crossed .
March 8th, 2009 at 12:38 PM
Hi AK,
BJP should field all candidates.
BJP should not use any wrong word against TMC,TDP and PRP.
1. That way BJP will follow coaliation Dharma(Even though they are not in coalition).
2. TDP voters and TMC voters will support BJP on those seats in which
TMC and TDP candidates are not fighting.
March 8th, 2009 at 12:29 PM
Hi AK
I agree with you.
March 8th, 2009 at 12:23 PM
Both Congress & BJP are getting tough with alliance partners,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Prove-loyalty-BJP-and-Cong-tell-allies/articleshow/4239533.cms
I think BJP did correct by not bending to BJD, irrespective whether they win or loose in next assembly/LS election in orissa.
Otherwise next day there would be a queue of other alliance partners demanding more seats. I think BJP should forget about forming govt at center and try to make inroads into WB, Kerala & TN. They will be king maker in AP this time. With 30-40 seats they’ll decide who forms the govt.
I really want to see Chandrababu Naidu begging for their support.
BJP is not doing strong campaign in TN & WB, cos it doesn’t want to upset AIADMK & TC. I really wish they didn’t care about short term results and attack these parties as well.
I had recommended in my suggestions to Mr Jaitley to tell people that Congress, TC & Communist will be together, but Mr Advani didn’t mention the name of TC.
BJP is themselves to blame for all this. At them peak of their growth they got into alliances with Shiv sena , BJD, TDP etc , which stopped their growth in these states. If they had gone ahead without desire for power, they would have been a powerful force of their own in Orissa, AP & Maharastra.
Look at Karnataka, eventually they did it. Had they gotten into alliance with JD etc , they would have been stuck there for life.
Anyway, they should be aggressive now. Don’t have any alliance in Orissa & AP. In 10 years, they’ll be under BJP rule, I bet.
March 8th, 2009 at 12:12 PM
no mid term election only immediate election. or BJP
March 8th, 2009 at 12:09 PM
no mid term election only immediate election.
March 8th, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Dont Anticipate An Immediate Election Dear. That is Not possible
March 8th, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Hi Raj,
Not in MAy election , but in june election BJP will perform well in AP,TN,WB,Kerala(more than 35)
March 8th, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Hi Raj,
7 in Telangana 2 in AP
March 8th, 2009 at 11:24 AM
Ritesh Bhai, Yes, BJP will Win 5 Seats in Telangana and 2 in AP
but, it is the other states that is of concern.
BJP in Kerala, TN,Orissa and WB put together can Win Only about 10 seats Maximum since They are alone in All These States
The Possitive is, BJP is Improving in North
March 8th, 2009 at 11:13 AM
BJD may go with left
March 8th, 2009 at 11:01 AM
Hi Raj,
Now BJP may take hindutva in Orissa.
March 8th, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Hi Raj,
Congress is not enemy of BJP, only allinace partners are enemies.
March 8th, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Hi Raj,
In may election BJP will not perform well in AP,WB,Kerala,TN. But in
Jun-july election BJP will perform well in AP,WB,Kerala,TN( IF BJP goes alone). BJD will loose state gov election in Orissa. Congress will come in power. If BJD takes BJP’s help(after election), in that case chiefminister will be from BJP for 2.5 years. After that NAveen will be for 2.5 years (As a punishment for BJD)
March 8th, 2009 at 10:56 AM
Hi Raj,
I have seen wave in favour of BJP in Telangana.