by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 8th, 2009 at 9:01 PM
well, Dear Friends, it seems Naveen Patnaik has said that BJP would be given only 5 lok Sabha Seats and 35 Assembly segments.
It is a clear way of saying ” We are Ending our Alliance”
It’s Good BJP didnt compromise.
Naveen Patnaik is delivering Orissa to christian congress
he is banking os some stupid survey that said ” BJD would Win All alone because of Naveen’s clean image”, probably, that survey was done by a congressi
March 8th, 2009 at 8:57 PM
I was going through Offstump Analysis and Discussion on BJP-BJD Alliance Breakdown and some are still optimistic that BJP Can still win 3-4 Lok Sabha Seats in The Tribal Region
March 8th, 2009 at 2:19 PM
In States where BJP Doesnt have An Alliance, Field Candidates in All Lok Sabha and Asembly Seats and concentrate on Winnable Seats more. This way both The base as well as Seats will Increase for BJP
March 8th, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Hi Anil,
I feel, again election will take place on june-july.
March 8th, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Hi.,
I think someone is giving wrong advice to Naveen. His position will be like
JD(secular)
March 8th, 2009 at 2:09 PM
Hi,
BJP should try to fight on 75% to 100% in all states. It will take time, today it is not possible.
March 8th, 2009 at 2:06 PM
Hi Anil,
I am 100% agree with you.
March 8th, 2009 at 2:02 PM
Dear Friends,
Don’t get worried, it is the BJD who is to blame for what has happened in Orissa and BJP should know it well that if BJP want to come to power in any state then first it has to a create base over there and develop the habit of sitting in the opposition. BJP is not a pushover in Orissa like marginal player CPM &NCP JMM and it has 21% popular support in Tribal & certain pocket of Coastal area. We should also know that it will be three corner contest in the Orison with BJP getting a golden opportunity to grow it support base in BJD terrain and become all Orissa party.
We should also not forget the BJP has never fought election in all MLA/MP constituencies in Orissa which will provide an opportunity to create a base across the state.
I know BJP & BJD will be both will the losers and we know that Navin PatNaik is being befooled by the his close confident based on the survey report done by so called Psephologist that BJD will come to power on its own.
You all should know that Navin Patnaik is definitely a clean and honest person but he can’t even speak the language of state which he is ruling and his actions and decisions are based on feed back of some selfish close confidant and they want to finish him politically.
You will see that he may or may not win the assembly election but what he will loose the trust which value more for the people and BJP should try to exploit the emotion of being cheated by BJD for backstabbing and breaching the Alliance Dharma .
BJP should be prepared to fight and sit in the opposition and snatch the space from Congress then you see real results.
Orissa is state with 92-95% Hindu population like TN, AP will become the most fertile ground for the growth of the BJP.
Here what I see repeat of 1996 and even worst political uncertainties emerging out of the GE 2009 which will not be good for the Country and Economy which is already in dolrum and but we can’t avoid it and mid term election looks looming large as this time neither INC nor BJP will support the Third Front govt as the party supporting and withdrawing it later on will finish politically .
This will push for the emergence of Bipolar Politics in India.
March 8th, 2009 at 2:01 PM
Hi,
BJP should not have any alliance in Telangana.
March 8th, 2009 at 1:57 PM
Hi,
If BJP wants to have alliance in AP,TN,WB and Kerala, it should be 50-50.
Ohterwise it better to go alone.
March 8th, 2009 at 1:42 PM
Hi,
BJP should annouce own CM in AP and Telangana.
March 8th, 2009 at 1:15 PM
NO Ritesh Bhai.
BJP Should Not do That Mistake.
It is A Gimmick. BJP has all been opposing such tactics.
BJP has however Included : Telangana in 100 Days as well as SC Categorization into ABCD within 100 days of forming Government.
The SC Categorization is currently A Hot Topic in AP.
The Madiga Community would Vote for BJP this time(atleast A Section)
also, BJP should field Madiga Leaders of SC Community in Reserved Seats.
I personally, also Advice BJP to Field A Lambadi Woman from Adilabad/Mehbubabad(Both ST) consitituencies
March 8th, 2009 at 1:12 PM
I will Post in South India Forum
March 8th, 2009 at 1:11 PM
BJP should do big promises in AP like PRP,TRS,TDP.
1. give 24 hours free electricity if f BJP comes in power alone.
March 8th, 2009 at 1:11 PM
I Can Say With Pride and Confidence That BJP is The Only Party That has Ne ver indulged in Dirty Comments
March 8th, 2009 at 1:11 PM
What about Congress , TDP-TRS & PRP , any idea..
I think PRP might end up 30-40 (All coastal), Congress 110 – 120 , BJP 30 (at least) , TDP-TRS Alliance 110 – 120
March 8th, 2009 at 1:10 PM
For Those Who Think, BJP is soft on Opposition Parties in AP :
Addressing the executive committee meet at Ashoka Convention Centre, BJP state unit president Bandaru Dattatreya said that his party was committed to the formation of a separate state and for categorisation of SC reservations.
Launching a scathing attack on the TRS, the BJP leader alleged that KCR was doing more harm to the region than the late chief minister M Channa Reddy. “KCR is selling away the Telangana sentiment to the united Andhra parties with the single objective of coming to power and enjoying ministerial berths,” he alleged.
Dattatreya also found fault with the Prajarajyam party for not aligning with the BJP and added that the PRP was going directionless and was proving of no use.
He added that the TDP was describing the BJP as anti-secular, but, in fact, N Chandrababu Naidu should be thankful to the BJP as he came to power for the second term only by riding on the charisma of Vajpayee.
March 8th, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Hi Raj,
Oppose but do not use dirty language against TDP.
March 8th, 2009 at 1:06 PM
BJP is about to get anywhere between 35-40 Assembly Segments in AndhraPradesh and win 7(5+2) or Even 10(7+3) if Momentum Picks up or atleast if the current Enthusiasm prevails
March 8th, 2009 at 1:05 PM
I am getting feeling who so ever makes govt, it will be highly unstable because of people like Jayalalitha, Mamta etc..
Dear Raj, What it your prediction of AP assembly election. I know it is tough to predict. I am only worried if Congress reaches half way mark of 147, then BJP gains are less valuable… I don’t think Grand Alliance will reach that number, because of PRP factor.