by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 19, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Big news is that lefts will be no more decisive force. NDA and UPA are head to head in east. Others can make alot of difference.
Bihar (40): Honeymoon in Bihar for JDU+BJP is not yet over, but it is withering. We know that the issue of price rise is going to hit RJD+Congress most in Bihar. In today’s Situation BJP+JDU are well set to grab above 25 seats in Bihar (BJP 12 + JDU 15). As the time passes, there is a chance of Laloo comeback. Laloo is set to get 10 seats this time leaving 3 for congress.
Jharkhand (14): Jharkhand is also likely to reverse its verdict from last time as its cousin Bihar. BJP is set to win 10 seats here. Congress is going to suffer heavily and expected to win 1 seat. Its ally RJD can steal a seat and JMM can claim 2 seats. As the time pass BJP is growing strong in this tribal state. Even there are chances that BJP can grab 12-13 seats, but a less likely outcome.
Chhattisgarh (11): BJP will win this state also, but not as decisively as in 2004. Also defeat in VidhanSabha election can harm its prospects. Prediction is 7 seats for BJP and 4 seats for Congress. Good performance by Congress in state election can reverse the fortune. BJP need to hold a little longer.
Orissa (21): Orissa is a state giving its mandate to NDA for last three elections. This time it can be a battle state. Orissa Congress unit is in desperate need of help from God. That is why they could not fight BJP+BJD in last couple of election. If they can manage their home, then public is ready to give them support. Current situation suggest that Congress can win as many as 7 seats in state, leaving 6 for BJP and 8 for BJD. That less talkative man, ‘sitting in Orissa’s chair of power’ has defied many predictions in past. Let us wait to see, if he can cast his magic again.
Bengal (42): The red charm of Kolkata is not that strong this time. Left front has its own problem with allies going in different directions. Left front can still win 25 seats. BJP is likely to win 1 seat. Now TMC is a very decisive factor in Bengal. If Mamta joins hand with Congress, Congress can win 6 seats and TMC 10 seats. If Mamta joins hands with NDA, BJP can win 2-3, TMC 10-11, and Congress 4-5. But I would like to go with first option, as it is more likely to happen.
Assam (14): Assam congress has performed well in last elections. This time they are set to face anti-incumbency. They can still win 7 out of 14. Now if BJP and AGP can join hands they can push congress in corner with just 3-4 seats. But in current situation BJP is likely to win 4 seats, AGP 2 seats and 1 other party.
North East & Union Territories (15): Congress 7 seats, BJP 2 seats, Left 2 seats, 4 others.
This completes our eastern India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 157
BJP: 42
JDU: 15
BJD: 08
This brings NDA total to 65
INC: 35
RJD: 11
JMM: 02
This brings UPA total to 48
Left: 27
TMC: 10
AGP: 02
Other: 05
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 11th, 2009 at 9:47 AM
Dear Raj,
Sushma ji who is in charge of Jharkhand , has said that Alliance with JD(U) will depend on seat sharing agreement in Bihar. From 2004 election JD(U) Candidate was strong only in 1 seat, so in all probability they may get 1 or max 2 seats, provided they are not aggressive in demanding more seats in Bihar.
BJP should contest minimum of 12 seats. Short term gains are no good, they lost Orissa coz they could never consolidate there after entering alliance and became junior partner.
Chances of NDA govt are lesser, so they should drive hard for future growth, especially in WB & Telengana.
March 11th, 2009 at 9:32 AM
oh, But, I wish BJP forms Alliance with JD(U) in Jharkhand
March 11th, 2009 at 1:22 AM
Good is better now,
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/ljp-to-contest-all-14-ls-seats-in-jharkhand-alone/87355-37.html
As Ram Vilas Paswan plans to contest all 14 now instead of 6 as planned earlier.
March 10th, 2009 at 2:03 PM
some good news from Jharkhand
http://www.zeenews.com/nation/2009-03-11/513922news.html
Ram Vilas Paswan will play the spoiler for UPA here
March 10th, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Hi,
BJP will get this time 180-190 and alliance will get 48 seats.( excluding BJD).
March 10th, 2009 at 9:27 AM
I differ with Arun Nehru on the following states:
Chattisgarh, UP, Punjab and Haryana.
Haryana: INLD & BJP in 1999 had a vote share of 57% when they fought together, even in 2004 when they fought separately BJP had 20% plus and INLD 30% plus. Now that they have come together, Bajanlal has moved out of congress and formed is new front, it is comical to see Mr. Arun Nehru giving 7 seats to INC in Haryana.
March 10th, 2009 at 8:35 AM
Despite the BJP BJD split the NDA is not in that bad of a shape.
Lets look at a projection from Arun Nerhu
http://www.flickr.com/photos/27430283@N08/3337221251/
where he has INC at 151, BJP at 134, 33 for Left Front. His prediction was before the BJP-BJD breakup. So instead of 8 for INC, 6 for BJP and 7 for BJD in Orrisa. Lets suppose it is 10 for INC, 1 for BJP and 10 for BJD which puts INC at 153 and BJP at 129.
Lets see how the numbers pan out. There are various rules like
JD(U) and RJD will not be part of the same front
1) SP and BSP will not be part of same front
2) DMK and AIADMK will not be part of same front
3) NC and PDP will not be part of same front
4) TC and Left front will not be part of the same front
5) TDP, BJD, AGP, INLD, SS, SAD, will not support UPA
6) SP and NCP will most likely not support NDA
7) Left front, RJD, LJNS, ML, KC, will not support NDA.
A UPA front could be
INC (151)+MIM(1)+RJD(8)+LJNS(2)+NC(2)+JMM(2)+ML(2)+KC(1)+NCP(11)+RPI(1)+DMK(7)+PMK(7)+AITC(13)=208 If you add in TRS(6)+PR(3)+Assam independent(1)+JD(S)(2)+SDF(1)+NDF(1)+MDMK(2)+RLD(3)+BNP(1)=20 And also add in SP(26) you get 208+20+26=254. Not enough to cross 272. You will need support of Left front from the outside which is 254+33=287. But you need to substract 13 for AITC which would be 274 which is really cutting it close.
A NDA front would be
BJP(129)+AGP(4)+JD(U)(19)+INLD(3)+SS(12)+SAD(5)+RLD(3)=175
But you can add to it TDP(13)+TRS(6)+PR(3)+Assam Independent(1)+SDF(1)+NDF(1)+BJD(10)+MDMK(2)+PMK(7)+AITC(13)+AIADMK(16)+BNP(1)=74. 175+74=249. If you add BSP(36) it will be 249+36=285. Which is a potentially more stable block then a Left front supported UPA.
A Third front would not work because INC(151)+BJP(129)=280. I guess they can try to get INC to support a Third front from the outside but then the Thrid front would most likely not have TDP, BJD, AGP, INLD, SAD in it since they are all regional rivals to INC. In which case it is merely the UPA alliance I outlined above with INC supporting it from the outside. The numbers barely crosses the 272 line.
The math does not look that for for UPA nor NDA but it seems that NDA might be slightly better off.
March 9th, 2009 at 3:32 PM
It’s the commies who are the real jokers and cartoon characters in this election.
look at their thrid fron partners : AIADMK,TDP,TRS who would Jump into NDA post poll and The Dying JD(S) and JMM an Insignificant corrupt christian party which would go with UPA in Most Probability Post polls
March 9th, 2009 at 3:29 PM
Dear Arun, In Orissa, BJP is Not an Urban Party.
Infact, BJP Doesnt have an Urban Base in Orissa as Shown by The Recent Municipality Elections Held on The Coastal Belt.
In Orissa, BJP is A Tribal Party and BJP Should Build on This.
BJP Should Certainly Promote Tribal Leaders here and Project Jual Oram as CM. Let Him contest Both Assembly as well as Lok Sabha Seats.
March 9th, 2009 at 3:22 PM
I would give the benefit of doubt to Naveen. It was BJPs mistake to continue with people like Samir Dey in state politics when it had honest persons like Darmesh Pradhan and Jural Oram. In the present scenario i think it is a blessing in disguise for the state unit of the party to revamp itself.
I dont think it would be a bad idea to project Jural Oram ( a tribal leader) as the CM candidate of the BJP. Actually in the 30 seats which BJP lost in the last elections were in the trial belt to the JMM and Communist. The congress is also trying to make a comeback only in the tribal regions. BJD is not very strong here. BJD may eat into the urban vote of BJP but BJP should ensure that in tribal areas the party emerges victories smashing INC, JMM, Left and NCP.
March 9th, 2009 at 3:14 PM
Hi,
Naveen does not understand anything, how much this election is important for contry. Advani is the person, who may control slowdown in economy.
March 9th, 2009 at 3:12 PM
Hi,
It is closed chapter. BJP should go alone in orissa for life time.
March 9th, 2009 at 3:01 PM
Naveen has shown clear interest in supporting the NDA post poll. He knows the importance of Hindu votes in Orissa. Even if he does not come to NDA post poll it will be death bells for him in the future.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/naveen-keeps-advani-guessing-continues-to-be-in-nda/432761/
March 9th, 2009 at 11:32 AM
Great Analysis Arun Bhai
March 9th, 2009 at 10:27 AM
Why the breakup of alliance with BJD is in the interest of BJP:
Three important things that came out in the recent surveys in Orissa are
1) Naveen’s Popularity was at a all time high
2) Lk Advani’s approval as the PM was the highest in Orissa among all states (90%)
3) Approval of state unit of the BJP in the state was lowest.
Now if BJP was contesting as per the previous arrangements then it would have handed over more seats to Congress than anyone else. If the new formula as suggested by the BJD was taken, BJP would have been made an insignificant player in the state politics.
So in the present scenario, the party would have a huge sympathy wave atleast in the Loksabha polls. People like Darmesh pradhan and Oram will be able to capitalize on the same BJP which would have won only 4 seats out of the 9 seats if in alliance would now win 6 seats out of 21. The defeat of people like Sameer Dey would ensure that BJP would get an opportunity to clean the state politics.
This is wishful thinking, if BJP can win 30 odd seats in Orissa and play spoiler to BJD in 50 odd assembly seats then BJP again would be the King makers in the state.
The one good thing is that Congress win be the major loser out of this allaince breakup. Lok Sabha Seats which would have been lost by the BJP if we had fought in alliance would now be won by BJD and not congress.
March 9th, 2009 at 9:16 AM
Hi AK,
BJP is other pole of indian politics. I am not able to understand, How has Naveen done mistake.
March 9th, 2009 at 9:13 AM
BJP – JD(U) Alliance looks to be ok,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Patna/BJP-JDU-alliance-wont-go-Orissa-way-Nitish–/articleshow/4242130.cms
If you look into actual seats,
BJP has made up the loss of BJD alliance of 21 seats by, tieing up with
- AGP (14seats)
- INLD (10 seats)
In both these states BJP gained from Regional partner breaking alliance,
In 1999 ,
Assam BJP share was 5/14, now it is 8/14
In Harayana BJP share was 5/10 now it is 6/14
I wish BJP emerge as stronger state player in next few yeas in Orissa.
March 9th, 2009 at 1:26 AM
now BJP has got a solid opportunity to rule Orissa. history repeats itself
janata dal collapsed in Gujarat and Gujarat is BJP bastion
Janata Dal collapsed in Karnataka and now Karnataka is also a BJP bastion
Now Biju janata dal which too is a faction of janata dal is going to fall and so will janata dal in bihar if nitish kumar is foolish but nitish will ne with bjp ..
BJP should not worry..
March 8th, 2009 at 9:47 PM
Jual Oram, Dharmendra Pradhan and Ananta Nayak are The Most Winnable Candidates from Orissa for BJP
March 8th, 2009 at 9:45 PM
Potential Seats BJP can Win in Orissa on It’s Own : Mayurbanj(ST),Keonjhar(ST),Sundargarh(ST),Deogarh,,Bolangir, Nawrangpur(ST)
of These 6 BJP should be able to Win 3-4 if Focussed Well.
Take The Attack on The Opposition camp.