- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
Take a look at these related posts:
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
July 13, 2008 at 5:13 PM
The author is very partial to NDA.
Useless article
July 15, 2008 at 12:50 AM
@ramesh
which part of article was partial, please enlighten all the readers. It is just an opinion, not facts, so can be different for everybody.
July 17, 2008 at 6:55 PM
Good analysis. But politics is every changing ground so you can take it with a pinch of salt. He is right about congress in UP. It is almost dead except in AP where there are more illeterates and have craze for foreigners.
July 31, 2008 at 12:15 PM
I think in Jammu and Kashmir BJP would make a Clean Sweep in Non Muslim Regions and if Ladhak too goes with BJP, Then BJP would Win 3 seats in J&K
Certainly in Uttarachal, Punjab , Haryana and Himachal it would be BJP-Allies sweep.
UP is a Real Battle ground. Mayawati would win 50+ seats particularly after alliance with Ajit singh is Confirmed.
Congress Samajwadi Alliance can win 20 seats and this leaves BJP with 10 seats. BJPcertainly has to do a lot of ground work to win more seats in UP.
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October 19, 2008 at 4:00 PM
Now that alliance of BJP with ajit Singh is almost finalized in Uttar Pradesh, the alliance is going to perform much better than assembly election in western Uttar Pradesh at least.
We must remember Uttar Pradesh has always preferred BJP in lok Sabha. Even when it used to get 52 seats in UP they were not able to get majority there.
I think BJP will get 15 seats in western Uttar Pradesh, as it will be Hindu-muslim contest. Hindu (excluding Dalit) including Jat will vote for BJP. Dalit (some might vote for BJP in Muslim Hindu polarization scenario) will vote for BSP. Muslims will vote for SP-Congress.
In such a scenario BJP will definitely be a winner except for some odd seats.
In Eastern UP I don’t think Brahmins will vote for BSP in lok sabha elections. Probably it will be BSP vs. BJP contest in eastern UP with reserved seats and high dalit percentage seats going to BSP and rest going to BJP with seats from central UP (etah, amethi etc) going to SP-Congress.
My assessment would be
BJP – 40
BSP- 25
Congress/SP – 15.
Rest seats will be taken up by independents/other parties.
October 20, 2008 at 4:24 AM
Well I will just make a small tweak to what Sumit said, he got the situation right. I think 40 seats he meant for NDA not BJP meaning BJP + RLD.
So I would say final figures will be like
BJP-25
BSP- 25 to 27
Congress/SP – 15
RLD -10
Others- 3 to 5 seats.
November 9, 2008 at 11:44 PM
I can give 70 marks(100) for the above article ,one thing i can say politics can not be Analise ,it vary in fraction of percentage in votes,and tie ups ,i can say BJP may be the winner in north India ,because anti incumbency is going around India ,and BSP may give shock to congress by splitting votes in dalits in north built states …………………..any how all the best for parties in 2009 elections
November 13, 2008 at 2:51 PM
This is very partial report from the authour. hate this site.. Lot of politic game. No one can predict what will happen in India election. I guess, this time it will be a hung parliment. Think what happned to early election.. Everyone predicted BJP will win 3/4 majority, but, what happened?? We can’t say what will happen at any time. each dogs have money to pull lamb to their side. So disappointing… I hate congreess and BJP..
December 3, 2008 at 3:12 PM
hmmm again very biased writing…
u should have clarity and not randomly say things..
u may be a bjp supporter but this is like u have become its member..anyways lets see…
January 3, 2009 at 2:19 AM
well i would agree with you in case of haryana past record say so in
7or 8 constituencies either bjpor inld has taken 2 spot an pre poll alliance will help them a lot.
January 3, 2009 at 2:40 AM
in uttar pradesh an alliance with rld will help bjp gain 4 to 5 seats.but bjp alliance with apna dal is a waste.in u.p. i would rather see cong and sp alliance gain some seats i am going by past records.i feel mayawati is to optimistic she should rather keep her eye on past records and should tie up with bjp.this way if seat sharing is proper they can sweep entire state.a post poll alliance would be to late atleast this is what i feel.
bjp+rld+bsp: 58 to 68 seats
mayawati will be in strong position enough to bargain some key portfolios. otherwise her alliance with left even though she some how manages to win 40 odd seats could go vain.when i say 40 i am to optimistic for me if they(bjp&bsp) dont give up their internal differences i see cong -sp alliance coming out as clear winner in u.p.
January 3, 2009 at 9:57 AM
my Assessment is that BJP+RLD+Smaller Parties would win about 30 seats if Fought well and finalize a Strategy along with some ground work.
congress-SP would win only 15 seats
and BSP Can still hold on to 35 seats.
The BSP’s loss would be primarily due to maya’s high handedness and her arrogance.
She is to UP what Jaya was to TN
January 7, 2009 at 3:06 PM
The whole India is unsure about two states U.P and A.P. No body knows in which way the wind is blowing. The biggest surprise may still come from Uttar Pradesh. Those people who say that Mayawati will sweep U.P, they are mistaken. The Assembly and Parliamentary elections are totally different. In Last Assembly election Mayawati not only got the caste votes but also the anti-incumbancy and floating votes and moreover many people wanted to give Mayawati a chance and put together she won a simple majority and not a landslide with a voteshare of 31%. But, slowly BSP is loosing grip and as the day of election approaches there will be strong polarisation between the three principal alliances: BSP and Left, SP+ Congress and BJP+RLD+JD (U)+Apna Dal.
At the moment all the three alliances are capable of winning a majority of saets but there will be no claen sweep by any party and all the regions are likely to vote differently.
Projection of Seats:
BSP: 30-35 seats (28% vote share)
BJP+ RLD: 25-30 seats (26% vote share)
SP+Congress: 20-25 saets (25% vote share)
January 7, 2009 at 5:42 PM
BJP will do well in Uttar Pradesh as compared to SP+Congress combine because BJP has no strong leader but it has worker in each village on the other hand Congress and SP have so many leaders but hardly any worker.
Remember that in UP BJP will get the support of Brahmins(12%), non-yadav OBCs, kurmis, Jats, Rajputs and Baniyas which put together is a votebank of more than 35%. If BJP manages 25% vote in Uttar Pradesh it can win around 25 seats.
January 7, 2009 at 6:41 PM
SP in UP would surely lose all non yadav votes and Rajputs and Baniyas would Never vote for muslim appeasing SP-Congress combine.
BJP has to gain Back The Confidence of Brahmins whon are already disillussioned with Mayawati for her dry assurances.
If Brahmins, Baniyas, Rajputs, Jats, Kurmis, Lohri(Kalyan Singh’s caste) rally behind BJP, NDA Would surprise All Political pundits.
January 9, 2009 at 6:29 PM
My brothers and sisters in Uttar Pradesh must defeat the Congress to save India. Please don’t vote Congress and SP. Let’s vote BJP or BSP or any other Party but not SP and Congress as they have ruined India. If Babar and Aurangzeb demolished Temples these psudo-seculars are out to demolish India it self. For them,
MIM, PDP, AUDF and IUML are secular but NDA is communal
Supporting Afzal, Gilani and Madani is secularism
MF Hussain is secular but Taslima Nasreen is communal
Danish cartoonist is communal who offended Islam but Karunanidhi is secular because he offended Hinduism
Making fun at the sacrifice of Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan is secularism, questioning the sacrifice of Hemant Karkare is secularism, questioning the intention of Delhi Police is secularism but questioning the style of ATS is communalism
SIMI is secular for UPA Ministers but BJP Communal
Supporting Bangladeshi Migrants and UDF are secular but supporting Kashmiri pundits are communal
Pumping bullets at farmers for 2000 acres in Nandigram is secularism but asking for 100 acres in Amarnath is communalism
Religious Conversion is secularism but re-conversion is communalism
People of UP and India must punish these Parties.
January 9, 2009 at 7:37 PM
Guru, Well said. A few months back Karan Thapar interviewed Kanimozhi the ‘daughter’ of Karunanidhi. Karan asked her about the anti-Hindu statements made by her father. For which she gave a very amazing reply. She said that the DMK was always like that and considering the more derogatory statements that they have made earlier this was nothing. The master Advocate for Devil himself chose to accept the reply as quite accetable and simply switched to another topic.
January 10, 2009 at 7:17 PM
BJP is in dissaray in UP.They can only do well by getting back forewards and important chunknof backwards.They needd to choose better candidates than rivals.They should esp focus on urban areas their traditional strong areas and go for alliance with RLD.
January 12, 2009 at 6:03 PM
Mullayam Singh have no option but to vote for BJP. Earlier Congress also cashed on this vote bank but with Congress and Mulayam on one side, BJP stands to gain hugely and this will be known only after May 2009. Remember BJP lost in Allahabad, Varanasi, Kanpur, Aligarh, Jhansi, Agra, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Faizabad etc by waffer thin margins in 2004. So, BJP has nothing to loose and it can only get these seats back. Added to this UP has seen many bomb blasts under UPA in Lucknow, Rampur, Varanasi. So, I clearly see BJP as a strong force in UP post Lok Sabha elections and its seat tally will go past 25 if it goes to the polls with RLD.
January 12, 2009 at 6:05 PM
In Uttar Pradesh people disillusoned with Mayawati and Mullayam Singh have no option but to vote for BJP. Earlier Congress also cashed on this vote bank but with Congress and Mulayam on one side, BJP stands to gain hugely and this will be known only after May 2009. Remember BJP lost in Allahabad, Varanasi, Kanpur, Aligarh, Jhansi, Agra, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Faizabad etc by waffer thin margins in 2004. So, BJP has nothing to loose and it can only get these seats back. Added to this UP has seen many bomb blasts under UPA in Lucknow, Rampur, Varanasi. So, I clearly see BJP as a strong force in UP post Lok Sabha elections and its seat tally will go past 25 if it goes to the polls with RLD.
January 12, 2009 at 6:10 PM
Uttar Pradesh will be the biggest surprise in 2009 General Elections. Film stars and criminals wont be able to save Samajwadi Party as it has got a Dalal tag in the State. Mayawati will improve compared to 2004 but not beyond 35 seats. So, this leaves BJP to win the second highest tally in U.P as lok sabha elections are different than state elections. Students and Youth of UP are strongly behind BJP.
January 19, 2009 at 2:50 PM
The situation is ripe for BJP led NDA to grab as many as 45-50 LS seats in UP. The most of them from Western UP (Agra, Aligarh, Meerut, Saharanpur and Divisions); Ruhelkhand (Moradabad & Bareilly Divisions); prominent Urban centres in rest of UP (Kanpur, Lucknow, Varanasi, Jhansi-Lalitpur, Allahabad, Phulpur): some select seats (Faizabad, Azamgarh, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur Kheri, Mirzapur, Jaunpur); Purvanchal ( Gorakhpur, Gonda, Basti, Maharajganj, Kaiserganj, Shrawasti); and some scattered SC seats (Etawah, Mohanlalganj, Barabanki, Jalaun, Bansgaon).
In order to harness this situation BJP has to workout effective micro-management, beyond managing following macro factors:
• First of all, they should co-ordinate well with former CM & Lodh leader Sh. Kalyan Singh. In this direction, first step will be change the candidate from Bulandshahr (SC) seat and move out Mr. Ashok Pradhan to Agra (SC) or North-West Delhi (SC). Some odd 8-10 seats should be left for Sh. Kalyan Singh, to decide the candidates, i.e. Bulandshahr (SC), Etah, Ferozabad, Hathras (SC), Farrukhabad, Mainpuri, Etawah(SC), Kannauj, Hamirpur.
• Seat sharing with RLD should be done on the principles of (i) Sitting-getting, followed by (ii) performance in last assembly Elections, barring 1-2 exceptions. According to Principle (i), Bulandshahr(SC), GautamBudh Nagar, Hathras(SC), Bareilly, Aonla, Pilibhit should go to BJP and Baghpat, Bijnore, Kairana should be given to RLD.
• Follwed by Principle (ii), Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Aligarh, Agra (SC), Etah, Ferozabad, Mainpuri, Shahjahanpur (SC), Badaun, Rampur, Moradabad should be contested by BJP and RLD should fight from Nagina (SC), Amroha, Sambhal.
• Mathura & Fatehpur Sikri should be treated as exceptions, where RLD and BJP performed well over the other, respectively; but Mathura should de allocated to BJP while Fatehpur Sikri should be left for RLD, because of local conditions. In all RLD, thus should be allocated 7 seats from Western UP (Agra, Aligarh, Meerut and Saharanpur Divisions) and Rohilkhand (Moradabad & Bareilly Divisions) and one seat could be given in remaining part of UP.
• Alliance with RLD should be finalized earliest and brought to the ground level effectively. Two should be given to JD(U) and BJP should field its candidates in 70 seats.
• The party should also take benefit of SP-Congress Alliance, as there would be no Congress candidates in at least 60 seats due to this alliance-where SP will field its candidates. Party should mobilize left alone Congress voters in these constituencies to its fold, especially Upper caste & OBC Hindu votes.
• UPA (SP-Congress) is capable of attracting back Muslim votes from BSP in LS elections, following this Brahmin-Upper caste votes of BSP may drift to BJP in such a situation. Thus, BSP could be marginalized to NDA’s advantage.
• NDA should reorganize BJP’s traditional rainbow coalition of: Brahmins (Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi, Kalraj Mishra), Thakurs (Rajnath Singh), Lodhs (Kalyan Singh), Jats (Ch. Ajit Singh), Gujjars (Hukum Singh), Kurmis ( Santosh Gangwar, Vinay Katiyar, Om Prkash Singh), Baniyas and not-Jatav Scs.
In the subsequent communication, one by one seat discussion will be done for effective micro-management.
January 19, 2009 at 5:20 PM
India should have a two party system.Let the regional parties be there,but for General Elections,they have to allign with any one of the two main parties.Once the regional party has choosen to go with the main party,then it can not change its stand of support until the next general elections.The people are always cheated by their leaders after election results.For eg: A person votes for Samajwadi party,as he dont like Congress and others but after elections,he finds the S.P.has joined hands with BJP.
But if there is two party system and law which says that the party cannot change the alliance until next elections,then things will be good.
Right governments will be voted to power.
January 20, 2009 at 12:19 PM
Vikas Ji, I am very Glad to Know That BJP in UP can win a lot of seats.
A;lso, BJP a Votary of smaller states should Announce The Creation of Purvanchal and Harith Pradesh.
Though 45-50 seats for BJP-RLD-JD(U) Combine is Wishful Thinking in my View, I am sure TNDA can get 30-35 seats
January 20, 2009 at 12:19 PM
* I mean NDA
January 20, 2009 at 12:20 PM
* I mean NDA Can get 30-35 Parliamentary seats in UP
January 20, 2009 at 4:07 PM
Bad News
Kalyan Singh has Left BJP Again and is planning to join Samajwadi Party
BJP has to get back The Brahmin Baniya Rajput Votes along with The Jat Votes and The Kayasts, Kurmis and some other Non Yadav, Non Lodh OBCs.
January 20, 2009 at 6:34 PM
BJP March On………..LK Advani March On……..people of India are with you and we desperately want to see you as our PM to SAVE INDIA. No Kalyan Singh no Vairosingh can do any damage when the people of India are with you.
January 21, 2009 at 1:11 PM
Dear Raj and all
When I wrote 45-50 seats for BJP in UP, then I said there is possibility of BJP win in 45-50 seats. It means in these seats they have the winning potential, eventhough there may be 4-5 surprise seats in addition also, which I was not thinking too. In before two days situation, if BJP led NDA had converted these 50 odd possible seats into victory at the rate of 2/3(60%-70%); they would have mustered 30-35 seats with much hard work.
But dear that is a gone situation now, with the exit of tallest UP BJP leader Sh. Kalyan Singh. It is really unfortunate, but it is the truth of the date and will prevail atleast uptill the last vote in 2009 Lok sabha election is casted. He and his network with full co-operation of SP (Mulayam Singh-Amar Singh et.al.) led UPA (Congress) will make all out efforts to drown in the BJP in Ganges of Doab region and consolidate all anti-Mayawati BSP vote in UP and strengthen Sonia-Rahul-Manmohan led UPA. One may like it or not, but one & BJP has to accept this fact and act accordingly in this situation i.e. Plan-B.
Plan-B
Now the party should expolre the positives of such a situation. They are summarised as follows:
(i) With the exit of Kalyan Singh & his opposition to alliance with RLD, the party shuld be more in comfortable situation to make an open and strong mutal co-operation based alliance with RLD.
(ii) With Kalyan joining the SP-Congress (UPA) camp, BJP should make all out efforts to defeat him and his associates in the seats contested by SP support. Unlike 1999 when Kalyan Singh was sabotaging BJP candidates in Lok Sabha elections from inside being Chief Minister, this time BJP should not hesitate at all in exposing and opposing tooth and tail.
(iii) BJP should not waste tickets giving on Lodh candidates at all, rather accomodate more Brahmins, Thakurs, NIshad-Shakya and even Yadavs in seats like Aligarh-Farrukhabad, Kannauj-Mainpuri, Ferozabad-Badaun, Etah-Sambhal seats.
(iv) In a retalliation to SP’s gameplan of inciting and breaking BJP strong leaders (Sh. Kalyan Singh), BJP should also aggressively and silently exploit the weak points of SP and give them a punching reply. Former local strong SP leaders/Lok Sabha members Mr. Raj Babbar, Sh. Beni Prasad Verma, Jungbahadur Patel, Awadhpal Singh should be brought to BJP fold directly or indirectly.
(v) While Mr. Raj Babbar and who left SP over differences with Mulayam Singh-Amar Singh and joined Congress, but SP is not likely to support him in Fatehpur Sikri seat and even likely to put Ajay Singh as its candidate. He should be poached by Ch. Ajit Singh’s RLD and given ticket from Fatehpur Sikri having good Jat population. In return BJP should use Raj Babbar’s influence in Agra City. Sh. Beni Prasad Verma also the same way left SP and join Congress but SP has already announced Brijbhushan Sharan Singh, BJP rebel as its candidate from Kaiserganj.. He should be brought in NDA fold through JD(U) leader & Bihar CM Sh. Nitish Kumar, a fellow Kurmi and made candidate from Kaiserganj. In return BJP should use Beni Prasad Verma’s influence in Faizabad.
(vi) In Etah, Kalyan Singh is likely to get SP support and ticket of sitting SP member Yadav is likely to be cancelled, BJP should made him his candidate and dampen the chances of Kalyan’s victory from Etah by eating into SP’s Yadav votes. In Phulpur, Shyamacharan Gupta is given allote SP ticket, neglecting claims of Jang Bahadur Patel in this Kurmi strong seat. BJP should give him ticket and with support urban areas of Allahabad city falling under this constituency, should try hard to win this seat.
(vii) Local but important incidents should be closely monitored like open Police firing over agitating farmers on Yamuna X-pressway in Mathura, previous day. These incidents should be highlighted as the insensitiveness of UP’s Mayawati Government of towards farmers and their nexus with money-fat business houses. The demand of Dhangar community in Mathura for inclusion in SC list again, which has been duly supported by local RLD and BJP leaders.
(viii) Sure win seats like Meerut should not be given to allies like JD(U)’s weak candidate K.C.Tyagi rather winnable seats with strong candidates like Beni Prasad Verms (Kaiserganj) should be given to JD(U).
In such conditions, BJP led NDA would be able to put up a strong challenge in some 40 odd seats (excluding many seats in Doab region in earlier assessment of 50 seats) and with even more efforts and hard work put in can score victories in 25-30 seats.
As promised seat wise micro-analysis in previous communication, here is the analysis for Saharanpur Division Lok Sabha seats.
I
SAHARANPUR DIVISION
Saharanpur: In this seat, SP has announced name of Kazi Rasheed Masood as its candidate while BSP is likely to field Jagdish Rana, its Saharanpur Lok Sabha seat Co-ordinator. The BSP probable candidate is a Thakur and SP’s is a Muslim. The BSP will get Dalit and most Thakur votes while Muslim votes around 30% will go the SP way. In such a situation, BJP should field Kairana MLA Ch. Hukum Singh, a Gujjar leader and Dy. Leader of BJP Parliamentary party in UP state assembly. He is a popular leader and never lost any assembly election. The party machinery should work for the support of Baniyas, Punjabis, Brahmins. The services of Saharanpur MLA Raghav Lakhan Pal should be actively taken for Rajput votes and alliance partner RLD should be well co-ordinated for Jat votes.
Kairana: From this LS seat, both SP & BSP are putting Muslim candidates. Morna MLA Kadir Rana will be BSP candidate while SP is fielding Saaran Masood. 35% Muslim votes will go to SP and a part of them may go to BSP also, which will also get Dalit votes. This seat should be given to RLD and it must field astrong Jat candidate either Jayant Chaudhary or Anuradha Chaudhary. The BJP should extend full support of Upper castes in this Hindu-Muslim polarization seat. Kairana MLA and proposed Saharanpur LS candidate Hukum Singh should work for Gujjar votes, here.
Muzaffarnagar: From this LS seat, both SP is putting Muslim candidate, which is likely to take major chunk of 30%-35% Muslim votes. If BSP also puts up a Muslim candidate, he will cut into Muslim votes of SP and take away almost all Dalit votes. If BSP puts up a Saini candidate then BJP should put up a Saini candidate to share the Saini votes with BSP besides collecting all Upper caste (Baniya, Brahmin, Punjabi), Jat and Gujjar votes with RLD support. Even if BSP puts a Jat candidate, then BJP should cut into into as much as possible Jat votes with active RLD support and put only a Saini vote to capture all Saini votes along with Upper caste votes.
January 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM
Thank you Vikas for such detailed analysis.
January 21, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Vikas you have rightly reflected the ground realities of UP. I request you to post your analysis in shri LK Advani Ji’s website http://www.lkadvani.in as it could really help the BJP in a big way. Hope to see your posts in Advani Ji’s forum.
January 21, 2009 at 2:27 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, Irrespective of who The BSP Candidate will be, dalits in UP would Only Vote for that party.
Therefore, in my view, one should stop Banking on transfer of Dalit votes from BSP to BJP.
Kalyan Singh has been causing troubles ever since BJP decided to have an Alliance with RLD.
Also Kalyan’s Re-Entry has Not helped BJP’s Prospects and on the contrary has almost decimated BJP.
my Analysis for UP is that BSP would Win 29 of the 80 Parliamentary seats, SP-Congress would Win 24 and BJP-RLD-JD(U) would Win 24 and Apna Dal should either merge with JD(U) or should contest elections on JD(U) symbol.
January 21, 2009 at 2:28 PM
Vikas Ji, can You please give me The Percentage of Gujjars, Jats, Brahmins, Baniyas,Rajputs,Kurmis in Western UP.
January 21, 2009 at 3:30 PM
Dear Raj, Chakresh, Biswanath and all
Thanks for your responses.
In my this post or earlier one I had never thought of transfering Dalit votes from BSP to BJP, that is not prctical at all. Raj you have rightly observed Dalits irrespective of candidates will votes for BSP, even if the fellow is a champion of attrocities over Dalits.
But as you have raised this aspect, there is a need to exploit this angle upto the maximum.
(a) In the 18 SC reserved seats, where all parties are forced to put up SC candidates: Generally BSP fields Jatav candidates. In these seats BJP should never field Jatav candidated barring one or two. BJp should identify other non-Jatav strong presence SC caste in the constituency like Valmiki, Kori, Pasi, Koli, Khateek and select the candidate from any of these caste leaving the caste of whichSP-Congress combine or BSP has fielded the candidate. Preferably the person should have a ghood hindutva image which makes him acceptable among Upper castes and Jat-Gujjars.
(b) Another target should be highly Muslim populated & communally sensitive constituencies, where both SP-Congress (UPA) and BSP are likely to put hardliner Muslim candidates, like Moradabad, Kairana, Azamgarh, Amroha, Aligarh, Sambhal. In such seats BJP can create polarisation and attract at least non-Jatav SCs. If I remind you 2006 Mayor election of Meerut, BJP candidate Madhu Gujjar won by more than 1 lakh votes securing 60%+ votes due to presence hardline UPUDF Muslim candidate Haji Yaqoob (who was earlier in SP then left it to form UPUDF to win assembly election 2007 and now joined BSP later). In this election may Dalits voted for BSP.
(c) Thirdly, BJP should also collect spill over effect. In SC reserved seats where BJP should field not-Jatav SCs, it should also use the influence of the candidate over his particular caste in adjoining areas of neighbouring general seats e.g. Hathras (SC): Aligarh, Mathura, Etah; Agra (SC): Fatehpur Sikri, Ferozabad, Mathura; Etawah (SC): Mainpuri, Ferozabad, Kannauj; Nagina (SC): Bijnore, Amroha, Moradabad. For this party should arrange at least one public meeting of the candidate of reserved seat in neighbouring 2 or 3 seats. Also, advertisement and posters of SC seat non-Jatav candidates should also be made to appear in adjoining areas purposefully.
In next communication Raj I will come up with figures you asked fore and more important figures.
January 21, 2009 at 5:19 PM
Dear All
The political situation in Uttar Pradesh in 2009 Lok Sabha Elections is very much comparable to
UP Assembly Elections 2002, especially in case of the BJP led NDA alliance. Although there are a number of differences also, which would be taken up later and their consequences would be analyzed. Before, let the similar situations be listed:
• NDA fought in alliance with BJP-RLD-JD(U).
• Kalyan Singh was out of BJP and opposed BJP to his all strength.
• BSP fought the elections alone and stood 402 candidates.
The vote percentage of various parties in UP Assembly Elections 2002 is as follows:
S. No. Party Vote % Vote %
1. BJP 20.08 23.14
2. RLD 2.48
3. JD (U) 0.58
4. BSP 23.06 23.49
5. CPI-CPM 0.43
6. SP 26.27 38.61
7. INC 8.96
8. RTKP 3.38
85.20
8. Independents & Others 14.80 14.80
The points of differences are as follows:
• Kalyan Singh formed Rastriya Kranti Party (RTKP) which contested independently in 335 seats out of 403 Assembly seats.
• Congress contested elections independently and put candidates in 402 seats.
• SP fought independently and stood 390 candidates.
• BJP was the ruling party in UP under C.M. Sh. Rajnath Singh with accumulated anti-incumbency.
• BJP led NDA was ruling at Centre under P.M. Sh. Atal Behari Vajpayee.
• The BJP alliance has allocated some 30 odd seats to LJNSP (Ram Vilas Paswan) and ABLTC due to NDA alliance pressure at centre, which was a total waste.
January 21, 2009 at 5:58 PM
Vikash can you please tell the chances of BJP in Bundelkhand region and in Cities like Lucknow, Allahabad, Varanasi, Kanpur, Gorakhpur etc.
January 22, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Dear Vikas Ji, I would also like to Know BJP’s Chances in Poorvanchal.
Once BJP Was Very Strong in This Region of UP. I feel, to get back This Region, BJP should give Importance to The Sidelined Brahmins like Sri Kalraj Mishra, Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi
If Brahmins, Baniyas, Kayasths, Rajputs, Gujjars, Jats, Kurmis and atleast a Section of Non Jatav Dalits Join Together along with Regional Factors such as Bundhelkhand and Poorvanchal, NDA can Win about 30 -32 Seats in UP in the coming Lok Sabha Polls..
January 22, 2009 at 11:03 AM
This may be Off The Topic, but I request You All to Please Join The Yahoo Group :
Hindu_Youth_Action
The Invitation is Only Through Request.
so, Please Mail me at yavsrajesh@yahoo.co.in
January 22, 2009 at 5:35 PM
Dear Vikasji,
Yours has been quite a detailed analysis of the situation in UP. The only thing I feel is that the 2002 assembly election voting %s may not be useful today. The BJP in the last assembly election polled only about 16% and that is a huge drop compared to the previous assembly election. The best thing going for the BJP in UP in this election is that there is a certain degree of anti incumbency in UP particularly among non dalit voters who had voted for BSP the last time. The BJP must be able to channelise this into votes in its favour and not allow them to drift to the SP or the Cong.
January 23, 2009 at 8:58 AM
Dear Hari, You are right that a lot has changed from 2002 in UP.
If one observes The Electoral Pattern, it’s The BJP’s Votes that went to Mayawati in 2007. Therefore, for sure, the anti-incumbency votes this time around would go back to BJP. Reason : when BSP Bouycotted The Local Body Elections in UP, BJP Won them. This made The Psephologists give BJP A Lot of seats in The Opinion Polls. But, when actual elections came around, BSP Stole away the BJP’s votes. This has Higly Demoralized The BJP’s cadre and also The BJP’s supporters like us.
But, with Ajit Singh’s RLD and His Firm 6% Vote Bamnk with BJP and with Disillusioned Voters among the upper castes following dry assurances from mayawati, BJP Led Alliance can win 27-28% of the popular vote and if BJP Alliance can really pull up to 30%, (remember the minority appeasing SP-INC Alliance can bring Hindu Votes back to BJP)
Then, BJP Led NDA Can really surprise the poll pundits and win as many as 32 Lok Sabha seats.
January 23, 2009 at 1:23 PM
Dear Hari, Raj & All
It is right that there are differences today from 2002 situation and I had clearly pointed out them in previous communication.
Hari u are right BJP got only 16% votes in last assembly election 2007, but in 50 odd constituencies it did not put candidates and alloted them to Apna Dal & JD(U), which was a big waste. However the seats in which BJP fought, it got nearly 20% votes. Also, you rightly pointed good no. of Upper castes specially Brahmins voted for BSP, which is not likely to happen this time due to growing dissatisfaction with Mayawati Govt. But rememder that for this to happen the voting % should go up from 46% to at least more than 55%.
So my clear suggestion is BJP should not at all ally with Apna Dal and allocate strong seats like Meerut (KC Tyagi) to JD(U), rather strong candidates should be considered from JD(U) in a couple of seats like Sharad Yadav (Sambhal) and Beni Prasad Verma (Kaiserganj), if JD(U) -Nitish Kumar persuade him to join JD(U).
The latest news is that Mr. Verma is not happy in Congress, as its ally SP has already annonced candidate from his seat-Kaiserganj and asked asked Congress to snap ties with SP over the issue of Kalyan Singh joining SP camp.
Also, Apna Dal is likely to join SP front, then there is no question of allying with it. Rather BJP should promote and rely on its own Kurmi leaders- Om Prakash Singh (Leader of BJP Legislature Party in UP Vidhan Sabha), Santosh Gangwar, (Former Union Minister), Vinay Katiyar (Former Bajrang Dal President), Prem Lata Katiyar (Women Kurmi MLA), Pankaj Choudhary (presently Maharajganj MP) and make many of them fight LS election on Lotus symbol. Also take active support of Bihar CM – JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar and if possible Beni Prasad Verma, by making him join JD(U).
The latest current incidents to be monitored are as :
(A) MATURA: Yesterday Mathura Bandh by opposition chiefly by RLD and supported by BJP over firing over & subsequent killing of farmers agitating over Yamuna Xpressway compensation demand was hugely successful.
(B) MEERUT: Ther was was a massive Muslim Panchayat organised by Shahid Akhlaque, sitting Meerut MP (won on BSP ticket and then joined Sp later). He was denied Sp ticket for LS election became rebel and organised Muslim clergy from allover West Up to oppose SP alliance for joining hands.with anti Muslim Kalyan Singh.
(C) LUCKNOW: After Kalyan Singh exit from BJP, Sakshi Maharaj becamre highly active and met Naresh Agrawal, BSP candidate from Farrukhabad. He declared he will constest from Etah to defeat Kalyan Singh on RTKP ticket and open to join with any BJP or BSp.
(D) ALLAHABAD: Mr. Beni Prasad Verma is not happy in Congress, as its ally SP has already annonced candidate from his seat-Kaiserganj and asked asked Congress to snap ties with SP over the issue of Kalyan Singh joining SP camp.
(D) ELSEWHERE: Other sidelined former Lodh leaders of BJP like Gangacharan Rajput, Shiv Ganesh Lodhi, Prof. Ram Baksh Verma, Chhatrapal Singh etc. are in contact with BJP, whomside Kalyan Singh sidelined and then left BJP.
(E) UP LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY TO UP LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL:
In election to MLC seats by MLAs, BSP got 7, SP got 3, BJPO 2 and Congress none out of 12 MLC seats. In this election BSP got 22 more votes than its no of MLAs, which is common for a ruling party. Some 6-7 SP, Congress MLAs cross voted, as common for opposition parties. Around 6-7 BJP-RLD MLAs coss voted (which includes Kalyan supporter MLAs of BJP and 2-3 Muslim MLAs of RLD, some of them got BSP tickets)
January 23, 2009 at 1:28 PM
Dear All
One important development I left writing, RLD MLAs voted for BJP candidates which was the most significant event, clearly indicating alliance decided between these parties. But BJP should take all care to prevent to ally with any other party say Congress, SP or even BSP
January 23, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Dear Vikas, Thank Your Detailed Description once again.
But, would Sharad Yadav come out from Bihar to Fight in UP?
And Sambhal is a Stronghold of mulayam singh yadav. I do remember even the earlier Don Devendra Prasad Yadav could Not defeat mulayam singh yadav from Sambhal!!!
And Why is There so much of Emphasis on Western Uttar Pradesh alone?
How About Poorvanchal and Central UP?
or is BJP so weak in Central UP? I am aware that this is The strongest region for INC.
Now, is SP-INC Alliance about to take place or NOT?
BSP has decided to go alone and Ajit Singh’s RLD has already Joined NDA Formally.
Would Raj Babbar remain with Congress if There is A SP-INC Alliance?
January 23, 2009 at 4:38 PM
Dear Raj
I wrote Sambhal for Sharad Yadav because if JD(U) has to be given some or two seats then it could be considerered as one of them. BJP should not give any seat to JD(U) where itself BJP can get more votes than any ally and wasting the seat otherwise.
Also, as a fact, the assembly segment of Gunnaur , highly Yadav dominated areahas been taken out of Smbhal and added in Badaun, hich Mulayam also represented in Assembly as CM. At the same time, Chandausi is added to it taking out of Mortadabad, which has a good Hindu Upper caste population in this otherwise now high Muslim population LS seat.
And this time SP has not put up a Yadav candidate here rather they have fielded a Muslim candidate. BSP is also likely to stand a Mulim candidate.
Thus with NDA-JD(U)’s only Hindu candidate has good chances. In the absence of any other Yadav candidate Sharad Yadav can attract most of Yadav candidates, which otherwise may go to SP.
January 23, 2009 at 5:05 PM
Dear Raj
There is no only emphasis on Western UP-Rohilkhand only.
Rather the approach is constituency based and identifying potential areas.
Getting 20% or 25% or 30% or 35% or 40% at all state level is not more relevant. But what is the really important getting highest no. of votes in the constituency among all the candidates.
Instead of Maximising vote% at state level , no. of seats with maximum vote recieved should be increased.
In my analysis of identifying such areas, I had grouped them as blocks in followingorder
as follows:
(i) Western UP – Rohilkhand
(ii) Major Urban centres – Kanpur, Lucknow, Varanasi, Jhansi, Allahabad
(iii) Poorvanchal (Region around Gorakhpur)
(iv) Some scattered seats
The order was not based on probability (chances of winning) but on the size of the blocs.
So, there is no over emphasis and under-emphasis.
Also, most of the events took place these days were from Western UP.
Kalyan Singh episode, RLD factor, Meerut meeting, Mathura incidents.
January 23, 2009 at 6:30 PM
Vikas Ji, I am actually A South Indian and I can speak Fluent Hindi.
That aside, I am a novice when it comes to Politics in UP in Particular.
Also, I dont hear much about Central Uttar Pradesh. I thought, Varanasi and Allahabad to come under Poorvanchal!! may be my bad conclusion.
And why is it that UP along with Delhi(Despite Delhi being Highly Educated) records very low Voter Turnout?
One cant simply arrive at a blind conclusion that Hindi Hearland has a history of low turnout.
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh have recorded a turnout of about 65-70 % over the past decade.
Bihar too has witnessed over 65% of Polling in the recent years
It seems Upper Castes in UP Dont come out and Vote.
Atleast This time, The Upper Castes should come out and Vote and Vote Enmasse to NDA.
If The Non Voting class turns out in Huge Number thias time in Urban Areas, I feel, BJP Will have Fair Chances of recovering.
Further, from a meagre 46% as recorded in may 2007, UP This time should record atleast 60% of the total vote or else, it would be the pseudo secular INC-SP combine all the way
January 23, 2009 at 6:53 PM
Well, it seems Sri Rajnath Singh would contest from Ghaziabad and This Seat BJP has to Winat any cost.
The Mother Son Duo of Mrs Menaka Gandhi and Varun Gandhi would certainly Win from unwala and Philibhit even if They contest as Independents(well, Menaka Gandhi did lose once from Philibhit in ’91 but for that The People there were extremely Apologetic and have Never ditched her again)
Also, There should be Effective Man Managemnt to get Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi(my Most Fav. Leader from NJP because of His Anti-Mandal Agitations) from Varanasi.
The Other Candidates Declared by BJP from UP are Sri Santosh Gangwar from Bareilly , Sri Yogi Adityanath from Gorakhpur and Pankaj Chaudhary from Maharajganj(All Sitting MPs) ofcourse, I have excluded Kalyan Singh who has been given ticket from Etawah as he has left BJP and his son would be contesting from there on SP ticket.
Ashok Pradhan from Bullandshehar seems to be a weak candidate in the wake of the recent events. And being a south Indian, I obviously know very little about Jaluan from where Bhanu Pratap Verma is The BJP Candidate.
Question, While Jaluan is reserved, how can a verma(Kurmi, OBC) contest elections from there?
Well, can Muqtar Abbas Naqvi Win again from Highly Muslim Dominated Constituency such as Rampur? He Won in ’98.
Also Another Muslim Leader, Arif Mohammed Khan is likely to be Given from UP ticket to placate the muslim community.
BJP should also use the full service pf Dr. Najma Heptullah in Muslim Dominated Constituencies of UP though she is actually from MP.
Till now, she has Not used for Campaigning.
Well, whether she can bring any votes is another story.
Even when in Congress, she has Never campaigned for that party and was sent to Parliament through Backdoor, Rajya Sabha.
She Never contested an Election so far
January 23, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Dear Vikasji,
I do agree that in the last assembly election BJP allocated 50 seats in UP to Apna Dal. A close look of the segments allotted show that most of them were in areas where the BJP had absolutely no hope. For Eg. all the 10 segments of Rae Bareli and Amethi were given to Apna Dal and they could barely manage 2% of the vote in all these constituencies. The alliance with RJD will be more beneficial for both sides. And from what you have been writing the BJP with clever tactical moves and based on the first past the post system can actually perform a miracle afterall the BJP when it got 50+ seats in the combined UP did it with just 32% votes.
As regards Sharad Yadav for Sambhal the JD(U) leader has a score to settle with Lalu at Madhepura and this will be the first election in Bihar in recent times without Lalu having the administartion on his side. So Sharad may fancy his chances of shutting out Lalu from the Lok Sabha.
January 23, 2009 at 10:45 PM
I concur with Thiru Hari that Sharad Yadav should Contest from Madhepura and Throw out lallu yadav from Parliament
Sharad Yadav is capable of doing the same as He proved in ’99. This time, The Left Parties are not in the alliance on The side of UPA and hence Sharad Yadav can Win This Seat.
Also, Vikas Ji I feel Beni Prasad Verma should be romped into JD(U) to fight from Sambhal
January 23, 2009 at 11:18 PM
Vikas Ji, The Good News is That The BJP-RLD Alliance has been arrived at for the coming lok sabha polls and The RLD would be Contesting from 7 Seats in Western UP Viz, Bhagpat, Ajit Singh, Mathura, Most Probably His Son, Fatehpur Sikri,Amroha, Muzzafarnagar, Nagina,Hathras.
Also, The RLD is likely to contest in 3 more seats in UP , 1 each from Poorvanchal, Central UP and Bundelkhand Regions.
It seems,in Western UP, the fight would be between BJP -RLD alliance and INC-SP Alliance and mayawati’s BSP would be wiped off from thsi region
January 24, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Dear Raj
well it is great to know that u belong to south India, and people there also feel so good about BJP-NDA. Iwas extremely happy when BJP formed its first ever full fledged Govt. in the southern state of Karnataka last may. I hope BJP will perform extremely well in Karnataka, I am also hopeful of good show by BJP in Telangana specially Hyderabad-Secunderabad. There is a reported deadlock between TRs & TDP-left over seat sharing. BJP should make all efforts to ally with TRS. It was unfortunate BJP missed AIADMK alliance. But I am hopeful for Kanniyakumari (TN) and Trivandrum (Kerala) seats.
Yes now over to UP
Jalaun (SC): Bhanu Pratap Verma is a SC. All Vermas are not Kurmi. They may be even Lodh, Punjabi, Kayastha, Gujjar.
Rampur: Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi is not comfortably placed, due to presence of Jaya Prada, who will cut major part of Hindu votes. If there had been no other Hindu candidate then only he stood good chance.
Mr. Arif Mohd. Khan i suppose is no more with BJP and BJP should not waste ticket on muslim, rather it will be damaging.
Mr. Beni P. Verma should be considered for Kaiserganj only. In Sambhal he doesnot make any sense, in this otherwise Muslim Yadav dominated seat with almost zero Kurmis.
see Hari, I am not adamant on Sharad Yadav for Sambhal, but if JD(U) demands 2-3 seats this seat could be considered for JD(U) on the condition of his name only. Otherwise seats should not be wasted over JD(U)’s weak candidates. Also, Madhepura (Bihar) seat ceases to exist in new delimitation.
Well Raj I seek yor help to let me know the source of news: Formal announcement of agreement between BJP & RLD and seat sharing plan.
January 24, 2009 at 1:30 PM
Vikas Ji, it’s good that AIADMK and BJP Alliance didnt materialize. Even in 2004, jayalalita decided the seats on which BJP should contest.
she gave them North Chennai Dominated by xtians,muslims and slum dwellers while BJP is actually strong in South Chennai Constituency consisting of Brahmins and Urbanized Decent Class.
Similarly, jayalalita did not let S.Thirunavakarasar contest from Pudukottai as He is one of her bete noire.
Therefore, it is for good that BJP-ADMK Alliance didnt crop up in TN.
The Reason Jaya decided to tie up with Left is to take complete advantage of anti-incumbency against both state and centre and bring all other parties except INC-DMK , BJP,DMDK and win as many seatsd as possible and then in the event of Hung Parliament enjoy a Lion’s share post elections.
also to be noted that unlike in ’98 there is No TINA Factor this time around. In ’98 with the exception of Atalji, India didnt have any National Leader. Therefore, Jaya didnt ally with BJP.
for BJP The Best chances as of now are to ally with Captain Vijay Kanth’s DMDK and also get full support of Rajnikanth and rope Him in for Electoral Campaign.
For DMDK too, it’s a must to side witha National Party since unlike in Andhra Pradesh 2009 it’s Not a Simultaneous Elections to both centre and state . Since, The Centre’s Role in Local issues as well as Sri Lankan Tamils issues would be The Hot Point of discussion and debates, if DMDK goes alone, it would draw a blank in TN in the Lok Sabha Polls.
BJP too if contests alone would come up as a cropper and even with Rajnikanth’s full and active support to if BJP goes alone can at the most win only about 2-3 seats in The Southern Districts.
Hence, to make an Electoral Impact , BJP-Dr. Subramanian Swamy and DMDK should form an Alliance.
The Only two Alliances in TN as of now are :
DMK-INC
and IADMK-PMK-MDMK-CPI(M)-CPI-VCK aka DPI(Dalit Panthers of India). Though PMK is as of date in UPA at the centre, they have indicated that they would snap ties with Congress once the poll dates are announced. and DPI though is in The DMK led front in TN, it has recently stated they would not allign with congress and wont support congress in this election.
DMDK and BJP are left alone and hence They have to come together.
Also Vijaykanth has Not taken any political stand on Sri Lankan Tamils issue so far and he is losing clout in most of the urban areas. on SSCP, he has taken a position to save it.
so that may bring both Captain and BJP closer.
January 24, 2009 at 1:36 PM
Vikas Ji, Jaya Prada would Not be contesting from Rampur this time as the seat may go to Noor Bano of Congress.
January 24, 2009 at 1:45 PM
There is a Possibility of BJP and TRS coming together to avoid the splitting of Pro-Telangana Votes.
But, we need to wait and see.
The BJP should this time sacrifice a lot in Telangana.
TRS should be given their demanded 10 seats in Parliamentary Elections and also in The Assembly elections sjhould leave 69 of the 119 seats.
BJP should concentrate mostly in The Urban Areas and in 7 of the Lok Sabha Constituencies. However, BJP Should Contest in Secunderabad, Sri Bandaru Dattatreya; Hyderabad, Most likely Sri Subash Chander Ji(Former Dept. Mayor of Hyderabad City);Malkaji Giri, Sri N. Indra Sena Reddy; Chevella, Sri Baddam Balram Reddy, KarimNagar, Sri Ch.Vidyasagar Rao;Mehboobnagar, they have announced a female candidate there and then in one of the following threse two constituencies; Warrangal/Nizamabad.
Also, Vijayshanti who recently merged her party with TRS can help facilitate the Alliance between BJP and TRS. she has always been stating that All Pro-Telangana parties in the state should come under one umbrella and have an alliance with BJP at the National Level.
PRP of Chiranjeevi is planning to go alone though they may form an Alliance with TRS or NTP of Devender Goud. However, The Presence of Vijayshanti in TRS may irk PRP.
January 24, 2009 at 1:50 PM
Also Vikas Ji, JayaPrada this time may not contest from Rampur. The SP is planning to field her frm AP, preferably Rajamundry or neighbouring Narsapur(Most likely) as the sitting Narsapur MP in the 14th Lok Sabha joined Praja Rajyam leaving congress.
Narsapur would be A High Energetic and Keenly Watched constituency in AP this time.
Most likely INC-SP will field JayaPrada
BJP has already announced U V Krishnam Raju(This constituency has lot of Upper Castes, particularly Kshatryia, Rajus)
PRP would field hariram joggiah the outgoing MP and may face local level anti-incumbency.
TDP too is strong in this region!!
Therefore, anything can happen and whoever Wins would do so by a wafer thin Margin.
January 24, 2009 at 1:53 PM
And Regarding Kerala, I am Banking on BJP Winning in Palaghat, The Palaghat Municipality is governed by BJP!!!
I wish BJP also blosoms in Tiruvananthapuram.
In TamilNadu, unless there is an Alliance with DMDK or there is complete Fan Club Mobilization by Rajnikanth and there be an active campaign by Him for BJP, it’s very hard to break Ice even in Areas like Kanniyakumari,Ramanathapuram and Coimbatore.
January 27, 2009 at 1:38 AM
In Western UP, The Real Battle will be bewtween BJP-RLD Alliance and SP-INC combine.
In pratapgarh, BJP Should Field Sri Ram Vilas Vedanti instead of fielding Him against raul vinci urf rahul gandhi. This time He can make full use of SriRam Setu Issue and mobilize votes for BJP
and Sri Vinay Katiyar should be Fielded from Faizabad from where He won several times before
January 28, 2009 at 12:12 AM
4. B.J.P should announce own SC/ST deputy priminister from U.P. He will fight election from U.P. It will attract SC/ST votes not only from U.P but also from outside( B.J.P can develop good base southern state). He should fight election from weakest seat of Andhra Pradesh. This activity will create base for B.J.P in A.P. I know , him aim is not to win seat in A.P but to develop a base in A.P. This activity would able to stop Mayawati’power in U.P.
January 28, 2009 at 12:24 AM
4. B.J.P should announce own SC/ST deputy priminister from U.P. He will fight election from U.P. It will attract SC/ST votes not only from U.P but also from outside( B.J.P can develop good base southern state). He should fight election from weakest seat of Andhra Pradesh. This activity will create base for B.J.P in A.P. I know , him aim is not to win seat in A.P but to develop a base in A.P. This activity would able to stop Mayawati’power in U.P. Because of this activity B.J.P may get 30 to 50 seats in U.P
January 28, 2009 at 2:19 PM
I think Advani Ji should choose Only Hyderabad if He wishes to contest from AP.
However, Modi Ji alone can mobilize Hindu Votes for BJP in Hyd over other leaders.
However, I strongly wouldnt suggest Advaniji to fight from AP.
From Kerala, well He can.
That aside, The Only Dalit leader of BJP from UP who is popular is Ashok Pradhan. However, His Candidature as Dept. PM wont be of any Effect in South of India
January 29, 2009 at 1:13 AM
Hi Raj and Vikas,
I am asking very important question. Telangana Rath Yatra will be helpful for B.J.P to secure 8seats/15 seats. Assembly 30/149. If it is done in Big very big( it means moblize all top national leader ( Rath Yatra should be takeny Advani, If not possible then take any other leader Sushma,Arun , Naidu). Is it possible.
Use big money, telgu film actor(give them some monetary advantage).
January 29, 2009 at 1:19 AM
Hi Vikash,
You are doing great analysis.
Can B.J.P win all 18 SC seats from U.P. If B.J.P announce Ashok Pradhan Deputy P.M. I want to counter Mayawati’s dalit factor by taking mayavati’s dalit votebank. Is it possible.
January 29, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Dear Ritesh Gupta Ji, Telangana has 17 seats as against 15.
And covers 119 Assembly segments.
Yes, BJP CAN wIN 5-7 lok Sabha seats out of 17 in Telangana.
BJP Telangana 100 and The Vijay Sankalp Yatra have been successful. The Feb 4th Sabha will be Addressed by Sri Narendra Modi Ji and hence wil be a Huge Success
January 29, 2009 at 2:34 PM
Hi Raj,
I am from Hyderabad, In by pool election, B.J.P performed very bad. That is why i am worry, before B.J.P was having alliance TDP. B.J.P should try to clean sweep in Telagana. And royal seema should be addressed by yedurappa and modi.
Ritesh Gupta
January 29, 2009 at 2:41 PM
Dear, are you talking about the Defeat of Dr. K. Laksham from Musheerabad?
remember, BJP Contested only one seat and lost by a slender margin of 2000 votes and that too because of a split in the votes by Upper ANd Educated class due to the presence of lok satta.
However, in Lok Sabha Polls, people are intelligent enough not to vote for lok satta and defeat BJP Candidates.
January 29, 2009 at 2:42 PM
Anyway, The Musheerabad Result was seen as a moral victory for BJP
BJP Decided not to contest in other by elections held last may
January 29, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Hi Raj,
If you are sure, B.J.P may win 7 seats. In this case Advani should fight election from A.P. Because of Advani’s factor it may go up to 10/17.
That way B.J.P would be very strong in A.P. It would be big problem for TDP and after some time B.J.P would be major opposition party.
I am staying in Hyderabad, everyone is saying B.J.P is nothing in A.P.
People want to cast vote B.J.P, but they say B.J.P is very weak.
I am having highly doubt, may B.J.P win single seat?.
If B.J.P gets 7-8 seats in A.P. without the help of any other party. It will
be big blow for T.D.P. I feel, future of T.D.P is poor.
It means T.D.P does not know basic of politics.This i have told many times. It is blunder of T.D.P to break alliance with B.J.P. Now B.J.P is free to raise any issue in A.P. Before it was not possible for B.J.P becuase of T.D.P.
Telangana Rath Yatra(Headed by advani) will create big wave for B.J.P to secure 10/17. B.J.P will have to put 110% efforts.
If B.J.P became strong in Kerala(5),A.P(12),WB(10) and TN(10) without the help of any alliance, It would be difficult for congress to form government in Centre in future also.
Ritesh Gupta
January 29, 2009 at 3:49 PM
Dear Ritesh, The Vijay Sankalp Yatra by BJP in November was a Huge Success.Nearly 5 Lakh People Attended it!!!
However, BJP is strong in certain Pockets in Telangana particularly in urban centres. Though BJP Doesnt have a single tall leader in AP, in their constituencies, they have strong leaders.
January 31, 2009 at 4:11 AM
well, SP has re-nominated JayaPrada from Rampur, but, still BJP should not deter away and still do Hard work and try to Win The Prestegious seat from Rampur and consolidate The HINDU votes from here
January 31, 2009 at 11:51 AM
Hi,
Rampur news , if your analysis is read by BJP leader, it will give major boost to BJP leader. I am having 100% confidence in your analysis. Your analysis is 100% correct. But i am having one questinon last time BJP was having fourth position(Given below, How is it possible even though congress is also with SP, one thing can be done muslim should go to Mayawati)
1.
P. JAYA PRADA NAHATA SP 289390 35.7
2.
BAGUM NOOR BANO ALIAS MEHTAB ZAMANI BEGUM INC 203916
25.16
3.
AFROZ ALI KHAN BSP 126406
15.59
5.
RAJENDRA KUMAR SHARMA BJP 121785
15.02
January 31, 2009 at 11:53 AM
In 1999 rampur
1
Narayan Datt Tiwari INC 350381
44.13
3
Balraj Passi BJP 237974
29.97
2
Naina Ahmad BSP 123509
15.56
4
Muzaffar Ali SP 63293
7.97
January 31, 2009 at 11:54 AM
Will muslim cast to BJP.
January 31, 2009 at 2:32 PM
how much is chance of BJP to win in Ladakh. BJP performance is poor.
How much muslim votes.
January 31, 2009 at 5:50 PM
Ritesh Ji, last time Samajwadi Party somehow held it’s sway over UP.
And The Hindu votes polled largely in favour of Jayaprada because she could attract the conservative hindus.
However, her Track Record in Rampur is very poor as per The Media reports.
Well, Vikas Ji has good analysis as far as UP is concerned.
My Analysis is purely based on National Issues alone and are quite urban centric and are not in reality with sociological caste factors.
However, still, I feel, BJP Can Form Govt. as against the fractured verdict one is predicting
January 31, 2009 at 5:55 PM
well, Mukthar Abbas Naqvi may get a few muslim votes but he should primarily bank on The Hindu Votes and BJP Should get The Hindu votes back into it’s fold.
Muslim votes wold be split primarily between SP and INC, if Noor Bano is their candidate(which is more likely to happen). The dalit votes would go for BSP.
Hence, it’s very important to obtain Hindu Votes for BJP even if their candidate is a muslim. BJP was able to achieve it in Bhagalpur By Election in Bihar where BJP fielded Syed Shahnawaz Husain while Uma Bharati Campaigned for A Hindutva Leader, yet, Hindus overwhelmingly voted for Syed Shahnawaz Hussain and He won the election.Even Strong Hindutva minded people should let candidates like Mukthar Abbas Naqvi(Rampur),Syed Shanawaz Husain(Bhagalpur/Kishanganj),Muzaffar Khan(Malda) to Win.
January 31, 2009 at 5:57 PM
In Ladakh, The Muslims constitute about 37-38% of total vote. BJP Should support The Incumbent MP There either by giving The Party for Him
January 31, 2009 at 6:55 PM
Hello
Basically i am from eastern part of U.P.,and this reason has been exploited by practically all the politicians.There main work is to befool the illiterate section of society.After I have read the so called remarks of people, i am put to think that the site is an annexure of one of tahe political party, which this year is propagating its so called hitech ideas to people.Let us not talk who will win and who will vanquish, Let us talk of how many percantage of people will be brought above poverty line,what should be ideas of the political partys to reshape the economy.The performance of the two ruling sides called NDA and UPA
should be scrutinesed and informed to the people in the villages.
I am sorry, the main commentator either he is a senior citizen or an active worker of a particular party, has not travelled extensively and his mindset is purelyto propagate one of the political partys ideas
hoe the same will be taken positively
February 1, 2009 at 5:27 PM
Hi Pramod,
In life there is choice between less good and more good. You can not choose between good and bad.Every good thing is also having some % of bad part.
Politician are not making fool to public. Public is making fool to politicians.
If really politician says correct thing, BJP and Congress would not get single seat. Becuase truth can not be accepted by people, people wants to live in false. This is the nature of person. I am talking about major national party. When they come into power really they are doing very good jobs and their intention is not wrong. Because of alliance they are to take right decision. If gov falls, nothing can be achieved.
Why I am supporting BJP
===================
I like gov which is doing development work. In my opinion all BJP states gov have done excellent job in present scenario( It is not possible to perform better than that). Today important is stable gov( like minded alliance). In today scenario BJP may get majority, no other alliance may
get majority. If BJP or Congrss( Congress can form gov at all any cost except miracle) is not able to form gov, very big economic crisis will occur. 10 lakh people will loose their jobs. 1000 person may commit suicide also. BJP leaders are knowing very well. BJP as a responsible
party has to take care of country. Do not see nature of candidate, see only BJP candidate may win. I have less time, i can not write many things in detailed. I have given only top level idea.
February 1, 2009 at 11:42 PM
In life there is choice between less good and more good. You can not choose between good and bad.Every good thing is also having some % of bad part.
Politician are not making fool to public. Public is making fool to politicians.
If really politician says correct thing, BJP and Congress would not get single seat. Becuase truth can not be accepted by people, people wants to live in false. This is the nature of person. I am talking about major national party. When they come into power really they are doing very good jobs and their intention is not wrong. Because of alliance they are to take right decision. If gov falls, nothing can be achieved.
Why I am supporting BJP
===================
I like gov which is doing development work. In my opinion all BJP states gov have done excellent job in present scenario( It is not possible to perform better than that). Today important is stable gov( like minded alliance). In today scenario BJP may get majority, no other alliance may
get majority. If BJP or Congrss( Congress can not form gov at all at any cost except miracle) is not able to form gov, very big economic crisis will occur. 10 lakh people will loose their jobs. 1000 person may commit suicide also. BJP leaders are knowing very well. BJP as a responsible
party has to take care of country. Do not see nature of candidate, see only BJP candidate may win. I have less time, i can not write many things in detailed. I have given only top level idea.
February 3, 2009 at 8:28 AM
After reading and thinking about your detailed analysis and adding my thoughts on political situation in U.P. and neighboring regions i came on conclusion with a little different picture. For BSP government in U.P. corruption has become a very small word, only 5% of peoples r enjoying this government. Farmers , businessmen, government officers, workers everyone is suffering badly in this government.exactly telling current and practicle information to you,everyday i am coming in contact with more than 400 people, of different class and different districts. so graph may variate like this……
NDA and Allies- 55+
UPA and Allies (with SP)- 45+
BSP- 15-20
Others- 2-3
HARSH
+919811773201
3 Feb.2009
February 3, 2009 at 8:47 AM
Hi,
One thing is very clear NDA will get more than 20-25 seats in UP.
February 3, 2009 at 8:56 AM
that i am talking min, it may be 50 also.
February 3, 2009 at 9:57 AM
Hi Raj,
This time in Ladakh BJP may win supporting dissident MP. Reason is very simple in Ladakh NC anc Congress are strong, This time they will fight together. In that case Dissident MP will not be supported by congress. BJP willl support dissident MP. Am i right. If congres and NC will support dissident MP in that case BJP vote bank will go up.
February 6, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Dear Vikas Kumar and All,
In Phulpur, BJP has brought Karan Singh Patel new Kurmi candidate and local resident of Allahabad city who is full time party worker and been elevated to this position. It seems, now BJP has started taking care of its “Karyakartas” after fed up with the politicians believing in hopping between different parties for their own interest.
My Query is now how would be the situation in Phulpur. Whether BJP will be able to bag this seat?
February 6, 2009 at 10:54 PM
Dear Vivs, Thanks for Your Message.
it was quite becoming a dialogue between Ritesh and me otherwise.
I feel, Phulpur is A BSP stronghold as Kanshi Ram once stood from there, though He lost the battle, I think that was in ’98.
as I am not frm UP, I cant comment on this.
Anyway, it’s encouraging that Party is rewarding grassroot level players
February 10, 2009 at 2:28 PM
Dear All
Hey! I am communicating after a long gap because I was out of my place for last 10 days.
Many developments have taken place during this period.
As I had anticipated, there is strong reaction over Mulayam Singh joining hands with Kalyan Singh among the Muslims. The congress is showing eyes to SP over the issue and exploiting the issue to bargain for more share in seat distribution. Congress had resisted sharing political dais with Kalyan Singh at all, in an apparent untouchable behavior.
The Muslim leaders of SP have become rebel over the issue. Md. Azam Khan (Rampur), the Strongest Muslim SP Leader has joined with leaders like Shafeeq-ur-Rahman Barq (Moradabad-Sambhal), Nawazish Alam Khan (Muzaffarnagar), Saleem Iqbal Sherwani (Budaun), Shahid Akhlaque (Meerut) (who are denied Sp’s Lok Sabha tickets) to protest Kalyan’s entry into SP camp.
The Muslim clergy is not ready to see Kalyan in SP camp and Amar Singh ran to Deoband School to pacify them. They had demanded unconditional apology from Kalyan over Bari demolition and nothing less than that. Kalyan Singh with his rigid style only own the moral responsibility and didn’t apologise clearly. THE Muslim community is not satisfied.
However, if Kalyan Singh goes too low in apologizing it will hurt the self respect of Lodhs and they will not support SP for insulting Lodh leader Kalyan Singh and work to defeat Muslim arrogance. In such situation BJP should use services of Sakshi Maharaj to reach out to Lodh votes on community self respect as OBS Lodhs will not vote Dalit party BSP.
On the other side if Kalyan doesn’t pacifies Muslims, then Mulayam can take the risk of annoying Muslims (20%) at the cost of Lodhs (4%). Mulayam may leave Kalyan or even throw him off election campaign and keep him away like untouchables. In such case, BJP should use Kusum Rai as she is still openly with BJP for making bad treatment of Kalyan Singh in SP camp an issue, to encash the anger of Lodh community.
In both the situations, BJP can benefit and may get Lodh votes if it plays tactfully. As BJP has till now not criticized Kalyan Singh publicly and Kalyan Singh left BJP on own wishes, he was not ousted from party.
February 10, 2009 at 5:20 PM
Thanks! Raj
As Vikas ji is back and it seems that he is having good understanding on U.P.
It is requested, if Vikas ji can share his thoughts on my query regarding phulpur – U.P.
February 10, 2009 at 5:33 PM
Hi All, I was very Happy to know that The sullah support to SP is breaking down
most probably Congress would NOT Ally with SP as Mulla Mulayam is unwilling to forsake Kalyan
Congress may even go to the extent of giving Party Tickets to Rebel Muslim Leaders of SP
This would Eventually Benefit BJP
February 10, 2009 at 6:57 PM
congress is digging well for self if it agrees to give 50 seats to ncp, and fights for only 15-20 seats in up if it allies with sp.if not it has to go for it all alone bcos mayawati may not come in congress net now as she is day dreaming of becoming pm. this will divide vote bank in up and will help bjp a lot. bjp on other hand seems to be playing good game by not offering any of its allies large lots of seats saving them from getting a veto only shs is getting 24 but it is a trusted ally.you make stable govt in this way and not by giving away seats to your ally under their pressure. well kalyanji ka to kalyan ho gaya secularism now seems like a funny word to me with which any kid can play.
February 10, 2009 at 7:12 PM
shekhawat ji could cause problems for bjp in rajisthan what best bjp could do is offer him a cabinet ministry probably hrd ministry. he is a popular fellow in rajisthan advaniji knows his potential they worked together for long. what other question worries me is when ever i am in conversation of bjp vs cong the only point most of my friends talk about the post of finmin which they say cong has the best possible candidates for it.(manmohanji & p.c.) what best bjp could do is announce its candidate for finmin. well bjp has a bunch of stars to fill the shoes to name a few i would mention arun jaitley, arun shourie, yashwant sinha, jaswant singh, i think swaminathan gurumurthy should be called in i dont think there would be any other fitting reply. for all of you who dont know about s.gurumurthy to give you an idea if you all have seen movie guru of abhishek bachan where he was portraying dhiru bhai ambani a veteran industrialist. r.madhvan was playing role of a news paper reporter well he in that movie was portraying s.gurumurthy he is life long rss swayam sevak and i have recently heard that he would be one of the speakers in india today conclave. i fill you all would agree with me.
February 10, 2009 at 7:21 PM
murli manhor joshi i feel is bieng wasted in last nda govt he was offered hrd ministry. that post is not for leader of his stature well i think bjp should project him as home minister.
February 11, 2009 at 5:52 AM
I think, RSS Will come and Pacify Shekhawat Ji.
As for Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi is concerned, it’s because of Him that I became an Ardent supporter of BJP at an age of just 11 years!!!
It’s He Who lef the Anti-Mandal Agitations in ’90.
however, in the late Nineties, due to Advaniji, He had to be given a Lower Portfolio.
February 11, 2009 at 5:53 AM
Now, as Advaniji is The PM Candidate, Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi would Naturally become Home/External Affairs Minister
February 11, 2009 at 10:50 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP should annonce him as Home Minister so that BJP may attract upper
cast vote in UP. I understand, it is not easy otherwise others will demand same way.
February 11, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Hello
as I was writing yesterday, the problems of Mulayam Singh due to Kalyan relationship are far from over rather they are becoming more and more serious day by day.
Md. Azam Khan continues to be dissident over the issue and remain absent during the Assembly session day before. He happens leader of the opposition in the assembly.
To join him in the rebel group of SP are Ansari brothers (of Varanasi-Ghazipur) while Atiq Ahmad family (of Allahabad-Phulpur) has already separated from Mulayam Singh last year. Both of these strong Muslim political families of Eastern UP are in close with BSP.
These developments will definitely have ill effect on SP’s prospects and BSP’s association with Ansari brothers and Atiq Ahmad family will destroy BSP hold over Hindu upper castes and particularly the Brahmins, who had supported BSP in a big way in the assembly elections. in this region, Dalits and Brahmins may come together, which happened in last assembly elections but Brahmins & Thakurs can never go with Muslim strongman politicians like Atiq Ahmad & Mukhtar Ansari.
February 11, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Hi Vikas,
I think uppercasete voters will come back in BJP. Only uppercaste BSP leader would not come back in BJP. Am i thinking in right or wrong direction?
February 11, 2009 at 12:10 PM
wow!!! Thatz a Good News!!!
further, SP should be highly weakened in UP
In UP, NDA Should Win The Maximum number of seats followed by BSP.
SP and Congress should be Decimated.
February 11, 2009 at 12:46 PM
The effect of these developments on Allahabad-Varanasi Divisions seats:
This region of UP has following communities in good numbers.
Brahmin, Muslim, Thakur, Kurmi, Yadav, Dalits
Kayasthas are also present in significant numbers 5-8% (higher than state average) in places like Allahabad City, Varanasi, Ghazipur.
Baniyas are limited to urban areas only.
BJP should try to consolidate all Brahmins, Thakurs, Kurmis, Pasis among Dalits, Kayasthas-Baniyas and small caste groups in polarised environment.
The BJP candidates announced in this area looks a good combination.
(a)Varanasi- Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi (senior Brahmin)(Former HRD Minister & Former BJP president)
(b)Ghazipur- not announced
(c)Mirzapur – Anurag Singh (Kurmi, youth & son of Om Prakash Singh, Leader of BJP legislature party in assembly)
(d)Allahabad- not announced
(e)Phulpur – Karan Singh Patel (youth Kurmi and active party worker)
(f)Kaushambi (SC) – Gautam Chaudhary (Pasi-SC)
(g)Chandauli – not announced
(h) Bhadohi – Mahendra Pandey (youth Brahmin)
In not announced seats, they should consider
Chandauli – a Thakur candidate
Allahabad – a Kayastha or an OBCcandidate
Ghazipur – an OBC or a kAYASTHA CANDIDATE
These will conjunctive cluster approach for this region:
with 2 Brahmins (one senior and one youth); Two Kurmis ( one youth and one son of a senior leader); one Thakur; one Kayastha; one OBC; one SC Pasi candidate(s).
BSP’s closeness with Muslim strongmen will alienate Hindu Upper caste (Brahmin, Thakur, Kayasthas) and Kurmis away. Then BSP will be left with only Dalits & Muslims.
With Muslims deserting SP for BSP, SP would be left alone with Yadavs and some OBCs.
Seatwise analysis would be done in next communication.
February 11, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Good analysis.
February 11, 2009 at 1:43 PM
Hi Vikas,
I am writing %chances of winning for BJP in all these seats. If you wrong
please change it. So that i can get complete analysis of UP seats.
a)Varanasi- 100% win
(b)Ghazipur- difficult to win 40%
(c)Mirzapur – 100% win Anurag Singh (Kurmi, youth & son of Om Prakash Singh, Leader of BJP legislature party in assembly)
(d)Allahabad- 80% win
(e)Phulpur – difficult to win 40% —- Karan Singh Patel (youth Kurmi and active party worker)
(f)Kaushambi (SC) – do not know –Gautam Chaudhary (Pasi-SC)
(g)Chandauli – 90% win ——not announced
(h) Bhadohi – do not know ——Mahendra
February 11, 2009 at 1:44 PM
Hi Vikas,
I am writing %chances of winning for BJP in all these seats. If you feel wrong please change it. So that i can get complete analysis of UP seats.
a)Varanasi- 100% win
(b)Ghazipur- difficult to win 40%
(c)Mirzapur – 100% win Anurag Singh (Kurmi, youth & son of Om Prakash Singh, Leader of BJP legislature party in assembly)
(d)Allahabad- 80% win
(e)Phulpur – difficult to win 40% —- Karan Singh Patel (youth Kurmi and active party worker)
(f)Kaushambi (SC) – do not know –Gautam Chaudhary (Pasi-SC)
(g)Chandauli – 90% win ——not announced
(h) Bhadohi – do not know ——Mahendra
February 11, 2009 at 1:45 PM
Seatwise Analysis Follows:
VARANASI
Earlier there was a news of BSP inducting sitting Congress MP Rajesh Mishra as its Varanasi candidate but ansari brothers leaving SP to join BSP, it is almost possible that Mafia Don Mukhtar Ansari will contest from Varanasi on BSP ticket.
Congress is once again likely to field its sitting MP Rajesh Mishra (Brahmin) with SP alliance.
BJP has already announced Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi as its candidate, asenior leader, former BJP President and served as HRD minister in Atal B. Vajpayee cabinet, a couple of months back. His well planned campaign had already started.
With Mukhtar Ansari in the election fray, the political temperature will definitely go up owing to criminal background. He is bad named for Mau-Ghazipur riots in 2005. His presence will automatically polarise the environment. The 100% Muslims will go to Ansari and can get some Dalits with BSP symbol.
In such situation a section of Yadavs and even some Dalits (non Jatavs like Pasi) will move to the BJP candidate who is an intellectual national stature personality with no rigid caste image. Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi will get more than 90% Brahmin votes. Varanasi Mayor – Kaushalendra Singh (Thakur), Varanasi Cantt. MLA Smt. Jyotsna Srivastava & Harishchandra Srivastava, her husband (Kayastha), Kolasla (a part of Varanasi district) MLA Ajay Rai (Kurmi) services should be taken for securing Thakur, Kurmi and Kayastha votes. Shyam Dev Rai Choudhary MLA from Varanasi South is a very popular leader, he never lost any assembly election, a continuous winner although he is a Bengali which are only 5% in his constituency should also be fully utilised minor caste groups, educated, intellectuals.
Congress candidate Rajesh Mishra supported by SP will not be able to cut much Brahmin vote in front of Dr. Joshi. although he may get good number of Yadav votes with SP support.
February 11, 2009 at 1:53 PM
Hi Vikas,
Mukhtar Ansari can not defeat Joshi at any cost. I have seen old analysis. I am not expert like. U know things better.
February 11, 2009 at 1:57 PM
Hi Vikas,
I am writing %chances of winning for BJP in all these seats. If you feel wrong please change it. So that i can get complete analysis of UP seats.
a)Varanasi- 100% win
(b)Ghazipur- difficult to win 40%
(c)Mirzapur – 100% win Anurag Singh (Kurmi, youth & son of Om Prakash Singh, Leader of BJP legislature party in assembly)
(d)Allahabad- 80% win
(e)Phulpur – 70% —- Karan Singh Patel (youth Kurmi and active party worker)
(f)Kaushambi (SC) – do not know –Gautam Chaudhary (Pasi-SC)
(g)Chandauli – 90% win ——not announced
(h) Bhadohi – do not know ——Mahendra
February 11, 2009 at 2:26 PM
Hey! Ritesh
Well I do feel Allahabad is a difficult seat for BJP while Phulpur is more possible seat for BJP. There are reasons for this thought.
Actually the names of these seats are misleading.
Allahabad seat covers less part of Allahabad city, only Allahabad south Assembly seat, remaining are Karchana, Meja, Bara (SC) and Koraon (SC) assembly seats.
While, Phulpur covers larger part of Allahabad City- Allahabad west, Allahabad north Assembly seats of city, and neighbouring Phulpur, Soraon (SC) and Phaphamau assembly seats.
Allahabad seat has 2 SC reserved assembly seats in it while Phulpur has only one SC reserved assembly seat, this means Allahabad has more Dalit voters, which will put BSP in advantage. Also it has put up a Brahmin candidate there, so it will Dalit-Brahmin combination work here. In addition Begum Atiq wife of Don Atiq Ahmad is likely to contest from adjoining Phulpur as BSP candidate, this will deliver BSP Muslim votes.
The constituency has good Thakur and Yadav voters will benefit sitting MP and SP candidate Reoti Raman Singh, a Thakur.
There is only some chance for BJP if Congress puts up a friendly contest with SP here and make Rita Bahuguna Joshi UP Congress President as its candidate. The Congress has some base of its here and Mayor of Allahabad is from Congress- Jitendra Singh, a Thakur. If Rita Joshi, a Brahmin splits lage amount of Brahmin votes from BSP and some Thakur votes from SP. If she also cut into BSP and SP’s some Muslim vote.
In such situation, it will be really quadrangular contest with some chances for BJP.
If BJP puts up a Kayastha candidate candidate then it may get Kayastha, Baniya, Kurmi and a chunk of Brahmin, Thakur votes. The BJP can definitely win if gets Pooja Pal (OBC) as its candidate, who is BSP MLA from Allahabad West. If you she is widow of Raju Pal, who was murdered by Atiq Ahmad. as Atia family is now in BSP, Pooja can leave BSP. Pooja Pal’s presence also generates a sympathy among voters.
Now about PHULPUR
Phulpur has very high Kurmi population except BJP but no other party has put up a Kurmi candidate. Even Sone Lal Patel, President of Apna Dal- a Kurmi party is not contesting from here time and has shifted to neighbouring Fatehpur. Apna Dal has fielded a Srivastava Kayastha candidate, who is not effective.
BSP is all likely to stand wife of sitting MP Atiq Ahmad- Begum Atiq. She will get almost total Muslim and large chunk of Dalit votes.
Sp has put up Shyamacharan Gupta, a Baniya as its candidate. He will Yadav, some OBC and al share of Baniya votes.
Due to presence of large poart of city, BJP can good votes from there-Brahmin, Thakur and good share of Kayastha & Baniya votes despite other Baniya & Kayastha candidates. In the rural areas, the only OBC Kurmi candidate may deliver Kurmi & OBC votes
February 11, 2009 at 2:48 PM
Mr. Vikas, please offer your views and services in lkadvani.in…
can u from your analysis tell the prospects of BJP leaders like Naqvi, Meneka Gandhi, Varun Gandhi, MMJ, Ashok Pradhan, Rajnath Singh…
The alliance with RLD are in final stages, ur opinion on the same??
February 11, 2009 at 2:55 PM
http://www.indian-elections.com/successful-candidates/up.html
can u give ur feedback constituency wise using the above link and the present candidates announced by the party.
February 11, 2009 at 3:05 PM
Hi Vikas,
I am writing %chances of winning for BJP in all these seats. If you feel wrong please change it. So that i can get complete analysis of UP seats.
a)Varanasi- 100% win
(b)Ghazipur- difficult to win 40%
(c)Mirzapur – 100% win Anurag Singh (Kurmi, youth & son of Om Prakash Singh, Leader of BJP legislature party in assembly)
(d)Allahabad- 50% win
(e)Phulpur – 90% —- Karan Singh Patel (youth Kurmi and active party worker)
(f)Kaushambi (SC) – do not know –Gautam Chaudhary (Pasi-SC)
(g)Chandauli – 90% win ——not announced
(h) Bhadohi – do not know ——Mahendra
February 11, 2009 at 3:12 PM
Hi,
Agra
Agra
Akbarpur
Akbarpur
Aligarh
Aligarh
Allahabad 50%
Amethi
Amethi
Amroha
Amroha
Aonla
Aonla
Azamgarh
Azamgarh
Baghpat
Baghpat
Bahraich
Bahraich
Ballia
Ballia
Balrampur
Balrampur
Banda
Banda
Bansgaon
Bansgaon
Bara Banki
Bara Banki
Bareilly
Bareilly
Basti
Basti
Bijnor
Bijnor
Bilhaur
Bilhaur
Budaun
Budaun
Bulandshahr
Bulandshahr
Chail
Chail
Chandauli 90%
Chandauli
Deoria
Deoria
Domariaganj
Domariaganj
Etah
Etah
Etawah
Etawah
Faizabad
Faizabad
Farrukhabad
Farrukhabad
Fatehpur
Fatehpur
Firozabad
Firozabad
Ghatampur
Ghatampur
Ghazipur 40% difficult to win
Ghosi
Ghosi
Gonda
Gonda
Gorakhpur
Gorakhpur
Hamirpur
Hamirpur
Hapur
Hapur
Hardoi
Hardoi
Hathras
Hathras
Jalaun
Jalaun
Jalesar
Jalesar
Jaunpur
Jaunpur
Jhansi
Jhansi
Kairana
Kairana
Kaiserganj
Kaiserganj
Kannauj
Kannauj
Kanpur
Kanpur
Khalilabad
Khalilabad
Kheri
Kheri
Khurja
Khurja
Lalganj
Lalganj
Lucknow
Lucknow
Machhlishahr
Machhlishahr
Maharajganj
Maharajganj
Mainpuri
Mainpuri
Mathura
Mathura
Meerut
Meerut
Mirzapur 100%
Misrikh
Mohanlalganj
Mohanlalganj
Moradabad
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Muzaffarnagar
Padrauna
Padrauna
Phulpur 90%
Phulpur
Pilibhit
Pilibhit
Pratapgarh
Pratapgarh
Rae Bareli
Rae Bareli
Rampur
Rampur
Robertsganj
Robertsganj
Saharanpur
Saharanpur
Saidpur
Saidpur
Salempur
Salempur
Sambhal
Sambhal
Shahabad
Shahabad
Shahjahanpur
Shahjahanpur
Sitapur
Sitapur
Sultanpur
Sultanpur
Unnao
Unnao
Varanasi 100%
February 11, 2009 at 3:17 PM
Hi,
I want BJP should put 400% efforts to win 30-50 seats from UP. If BJP put 400% efforts then definitely BJP will win more than 20 seats.
February 11, 2009 at 3:30 PM
Hi,
BJP’s winning chances in UP.
Agra
Agra
Akbarpur
Akbarpur
Aligarh
Aligarh
Allahabad ——————50%
Amethi
Amethi
Amroha
Amroha
Aonla
Aonla
Azamgarh
Azamgarh
Baghpat
Baghpat
Bahraich
Bahraich
Ballia
Ballia
Balrampur
Balrampur
Banda
Banda
Bansgaon
Bansgaon
Bara Banki
Bara Banki
Bareilly
Bareilly
Basti
Basti
Bijnor
Bijnor
Bilhaur
Bilhaur
Budaun
Budaun
Bulandshahr
Bulandshahr
Chail
Chail
Chandauli ———————90%
Deoria
Domariaganj
Domariaganj
Etah
Etah
Etawah
Etawah
Faizabad
Faizabad
Farrukhabad
Farrukhabad
Fatehpur
Fatehpur
Firozabad
Firozabad
Ghatampur
Ghatampur
Ghazipur ——————-40% difficult to win
Ghosi
Ghosi
Gonda
Gonda
Gorakhpur ——————100%
Hamirpur
Hamirpur
Hapur
Hapur
Hardoi
Hardoi
Hathras
Hathras
Jalaun
Jalaun
Jalesar
Jalesar
Jaunpur
Jaunpur
Jhansi
Jhansi
Kairana
Kairana
Kaiserganj
Kaiserganj
Kannauj
Kannauj
Kanpur
Kanpur
Khalilabad
Khalilabad
Kheri
Kheri
Khurja
Khurja
Lalganj
Lalganj
Lucknow
Lucknow
Machhlishahr
Machhlishahr
Maharajganj
Maharajganj
Mainpuri
Mainpuri
Mathura
Mathura
Meerut
Meerut
Mirzapur ———————–100%
Misrikh
Mohanlalganj
Mohanlalganj
Moradabad
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Muzaffarnagar
Padrauna
Padrauna
Phulpur ——————-90%
Phulpur
Pilibhit
Pilibhit
Pratapgarh
Pratapgarh
Rae Bareli
Rae Bareli
Rampur
Rampur
Robertsganj
Robertsganj
Saharanpur
Saharanpur
Saidpur
Saidpur
Salempur
Sambhal
Shahabad
Shahjahanpur
Sitapur
Sultanpur
Unnao
Varanasi ————–100%
February 11, 2009 at 4:34 PM
I am not getting how to post my views on LKADVANI.IN
The link takes to some webpage, i am unable to apply on it.
February 11, 2009 at 4:50 PM
go to the below link to register
http://www.lkadvani.in/forum/ucp.php?mode=register
i have already posted some of ur’s and raj’s views in the forum.. i feel u can directly start contributing to the campaign
February 11, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Also on give ur opinion of seatwise in UP for BJP prospects…
February 11, 2009 at 4:54 PM
For the first time UP incharge has been given to a person outside the state, Arun Jaitley has been given the task of UP and Bihar and has been asked to produce the following results for NDA.
UP – 28
Bihar – 32
vikas what is ur opinion on winning 60 seats from these 2 states, last time NDA won only 20 seats from these two states.
February 11, 2009 at 5:09 PM
Well I think 60 is a tough figure from these two states.
32 out of 40 from BIHAR is a high figure while 28 out of 80 in UP is OK.
55 is a more likely figure. (Bihar 28 & UP 27).
In UP alliance with RLD is must required.
Although is not totally impossible, but then both states should deliver 30-30.
February 11, 2009 at 5:09 PM
Hi lkadvani.in,
If BJP is going to put 400% efforts.
Up — more than 30
Bihar — more than 28
In many seats wining difference will not be more 20000 to 30000 votes.
February 11, 2009 at 5:20 PM
Mr. Vikas have u registered at the link i have provided u
February 11, 2009 at 9:17 PM
Hi Vikas,
Going through complete analysis
BJP may get
180(India-AP-WB-Kerala-TN) + 10-20(AP+WB+Kerala+TN) + 60
(BJP Alliance, INLD+AGP+SS+BJD+JDU + AkaliDal + NorthEastAlly) = 250-260
BJP will be sort by 15 to 25 seats.
Condition
————-
1.No inner fighting should take place inside BJP.
2.BJP should get min 3 seats from Delhi. ( Is it possible, please tell Vikas)
3.BJP should try to retain old situation in Rajasthan and MP.
4.No fighting with alliance.
5.BJP should secure 30 seats from UP.
6.If no major mishappening occurs.
Advice
———-
1.BJP should put 400%.
2.BJP leaders should not have ego.
3.Right choice of candidate.
4.Try to avoid inner fighting.
Vikas and Raj, Are you agree with this analysis?
February 11, 2009 at 9:19 PM
Hi Vikas,
Going through complete analysis
BJP may get
180(India-AP-WB-Kerala-TN) + 10-20(AP+WB+Kerala+TN) + 60
(BJP Alliance, INLD+AGP+SS+BJD+JDU + AkaliDal + NorthEastAlly) = 250-260
BJP will be sort by 15 to 25 seats.
Condition
————-
1.No inner fighting should take place inside BJP.
2.BJP should get min 3 seats from Delhi. ( Is it possible, please tell Vikas)
3.BJP should try to retain old situation in Rajasthan and MP.
4.No fighting with alliance.
5.BJP should secure 30 seats from UP.
6.If no major mishappening occurs.
Advice
———-
1.BJP should put 400% efforts.
2.BJP leaders should not have ego.
3.Right choice of candidate.
4.Try to avoid inner fighting.
Vikas and Raj, Are you agree with this analysis?
February 12, 2009 at 2:53 AM
Dear Ritesh, in Delhi last time, during the assembly elections, it’s the selection of wrong candidates that led to BJP’s Defeat.
It was Not sonia-raul-manmohan’s achievement as the media is putting up.
There will be a reversal of The trend from assembly in Delhi.
February 12, 2009 at 2:53 AM
LKAdvani.in, I have registered there as “RajofYourHeart”
February 12, 2009 at 2:55 AM
Vikas Ji, Alliance with RLD in UP is finalized. RLD Will Fight 7 from Western UP and 1 each from Central UP, Eastern UP and Budelkhand
February 12, 2009 at 2:55 AM
Also, in Bihar I give 29 for NDA(12 for BJP and 17 for JD-U)
February 12, 2009 at 3:29 AM
How about Sri Kalraj Mishr or Sri Adityanath ogi from Ghazipur?
I think, BJP should field one of them from here.
February 12, 2009 at 8:16 AM
Good News :
SP Congress Ties Hit Rockbottom :
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=RSSFeed-India&id=337cd1f4-9f5b-48d4-b0f6-d91db493d31d&&Headline=Cong-SP+ties+hit+rock+bottom+as+Amar+Singh+steps+up+offensive
It’s most likely that SP and Congress would field Candidates all over UP separatly and in 78 constituencies there would be a direct fight between them.
This is A Good News.
SP has already announced candidates for 52 Lok Sabha Seats.
Congress woont settle for a meagre 20 seats. that would be humiliating for the party.
Most likely, UP will have candidates from 4 Major Parties : BJP Led NDA,BSP,SP and congress. If congress goes alone, they would win only 2 seats of those of rae-bareily and amethi since the candidates from there are : sonia maino and raul vinci respectively
February 12, 2009 at 2:25 PM
Agra
Akbarpur
Aligarh
Allahabad ——————50%
Amethi
Amroha
Aonla
Azamgarh
Baghpat
Bahraich
Ballia
Balrampur
Banda
Bansgaon
Bara Banki
Bareilly
Basti
Bijnor
Bilhaur
Budaun
Bulandshahr
Chail
Chandauli ———————90%
Deoria
Domariaganj
Etah
Etawah
Faizabad
Farrukhabad
Fatehpur
Firozabad
Ghatampur
Ghazipur ——————-40% difficult to win
Ghosi
Gonda
Gorakhpur ——————100%
Hamirpur
Hapur
Hardoi
Hathras
Jalaun—————————100%
Jalesar
Jaunpur
Jhansi
Kairana
Kaiserganj
Kannauj
Kanpur
Khalilabad
Kheri
Khurja
Lalganj
Lucknow————————————100%
Machhlishahr
Machhlishahr
Maharajganj
Mainpuri
Mathura
Meerut
Mirzapur ———————–100%
Misrikh
Mohanlalganj
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Padrauna
Phulpur ——————-90%
Pilibhit———————-90%
Pratapgarh
Rae Bareli
Rampur
Robertsganj
Saharanpur
Saidpur
Salempur
Sambhal
Shahabad
Shahjahanpur
Sitapur
Sultanpur
Unnao
Varanasi ————–100%
February 12, 2009 at 3:13 PM
Dear Raj
Congress-SP Alliance is very necessary for BJP, because in such a alliance Congress is not likely to contest more than 20 seats. Thus, in 60 seats there will be no Congress candidates.
Because in UP it is BJP which is more & decisively damaged by Congress candidates. As Dalit votes goes only to BSP and Muslim seek the strongest candidate in a position to defeat BJP. Hence Congress candidates do not cut BSP votes neither they split Muslim votes.
Congress candidates only make losses to BJP candidates. When BJP puts a Brahmin they put a Thakur to cut Thakur votes out of Upper caste BJP votes. If BJP puts Baniya they stood Brahmin or BJP fields Jat they stand Brahmin and likewise. The absence of Congress in 60 such constituencies will help BJP alot because votes gathered by Congress in these seats will be largely BJP votes. In absence of Congress they will come to BJP and not go to SP, even though there may be alliance between Congress & SP.
Congress candidates come into real contest in 15-20 seats only (Important cities- KANPUR, Gautam Budh Nagar -NOIDA, GHAZIABAD, ALIGARH, VARANASI, MATHURA, ALLAHABAD; Gandhi Family influence area: Amethi, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Pratapgarh; some selected personal seats: Rampur-Begum Noor Bano, Shahjahanpur-Jitendra Prasad, Farrukhabad-Salman Khursheed, Bansgaon-Mahavir Prasad, etc.)
Out of these seats, in City seats except Allahabad and GBnagar, Congress won last time, they are facing local and Central Govt. level anti-incumbency and likely to loose, SP alliance will not help. In Gandhi family influence seats Pratapgarh, Amethi, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur BJP has no stakes.In seats like Allahabad, Rampur, Farrukhabad, Pratapgarh, all having sitting SP MPs are likely to have SP-Congress friendly contests, which will eventually benefit BJP.
In Rampur & Farrukhabad, Congress is likely to put strong Muslims against SP’s otherwise Hindu candidates, which will help BJP. Though in Allahabad, a Brahmin Rita Bahuguna will be from Congress but she will actually damage BSP’s Brahmin candidate and Congress also takes urban slum votes and damages BSP. In Varanasi, Congress Brahmin candidate cannot split much Brahmins in front of Dr. Joshi and presence BSP’s Mukhtar Ansari. In GBnagar (Noida) and Mathura SP does not have any base. While in Aligarh, Kanpur & Varanasi SP can bring some support to Congress. Yes, in Aligarh, Mathura, Ghaziabad, GBnagar alliance with RLD will definitely help BJP. In Varanasi & Kanpur BJP is strong enough to take on SP supported Congress alone. Bansgaon (SC) MP and Union Minister Mahavir Prasad is facing serious murder charges (last week case was filed) and destroyed Congress chances here. The only seat left is Shahjahanpur which has become Reserved for SC this time, so Jatin Prasad (Brahmin) could not fight from here this time. There is also possibility SP may go for friendly contest here which will help BJP.
So, Congress is not in position to get decisive benefit of alliance with SP due to seat wise reasons, while SP will not be benefit because of non-transferable nature of Congress votes. Thus, we can conclude that SP-Congress alliance will not help either, rather it will put BJP in advantage as there will be absence of Upper caste vote splitter Congress candidates.
Remember, decisive benefit means where a party was otherwise losing stands to win due to alliance like Mathura, GBnagar, Aligarh, Ghaziabad for BJP-RLD alliance; if a party was already winning without an alliance then winning with alliance, it is not a decisive benefit of alliance e.g. Amethi, Rae-Bareli for Congress-SP alliance. Hence, for BJP’s good prospects, BJP supporters should pray for SP-Congress alliance to materialize, of course with some friendly contests.
February 12, 2009 at 3:37 PM
Vikas have you joined the official website of Advaniji
February 12, 2009 at 3:56 PM
Hi Vikas,
You are right, same i was also thinking.
February 12, 2009 at 4:14 PM
Hi,
BJP should take help of Adtiyanath in Kanpur to polarize Hindu votes.
If SP is not going to put own candidate against Jiaswal. In that case Muslim votes will go to Congress and It will be difficult to defeat Congress.
Am i right? Please correct it.
February 12, 2009 at 4:58 PM
Dear Raj
Yesterday you were writing about Delhi.
Actually, what happened in Delhi Assembly Elections was not at all surprising at all to me.
And no substantial change has taken on grassroots level (however there is hardly grass in Delhi ground rather it is all concrete everywhere) in Delhi since then.
But don’t make simple conclusions out of it. Though the political conditions have not changed but the results will change dramatically. BJP is likely to get 5-6 seats here.
Really what happened in Assembly elections is a matter of deeper study.
Against popular perception of BSP is a Dalit party and damages Congress and benefits BJP by Congress vote splitting, Actually BSP is a Dalit party only in UP and outside UP in other neighbouring states of north, it is not so strong Dalit party. Rather it is a money bag party and capable of damaging both Congress and BSP as well, depending upon the type, caste of its candidates. If it puts Brahmin, Thakur, Punjabi candidates then it really damages BJP and if it puts Muslims or lower caste candidates then Congress is more hurt.
In last Assembly Elections in Delhi BSP put up more Upper Caste & Punjabi candidates which made a huge loss to BJP. BSP cornered almost 14% in assembly elections there. The difference between BJP & Congress vote% was only 7% app. in favour of Congress. This time BSP has announce 4 candiates till now. Out of these 3 are Muslim candidates (Delhi East, North-East Delhi, Chandni Chowk); all these seats have sprawling Muslim population 12%-25%, which will eventually damage Congress.
In South Delhi they have announced a Punjabi Candidate, a very rich person. This is one of the two most elite, educated constituency of Delhi along with New Delhi. This was the only seat where BJP won last time also in 2004 and had led in the total of all the assembly segments falling under this seat in the just concluded assembly elections. Thus BSP would not be able to damage BJP here, however it would not be able damage Congress also here.
In the remaining three seats: New Delhi, North-West Delhi (SC) and West Delhi. In North West Delhi (SC) BSP is forced to put up a Sc-Dalit only, so will not damage BJP, only Congress will have to face some loss. In west Delhi, BSP is likely to bring some Gujjar candidate, which will cut into Congress votes. BJP might field a Jat over here.
In New Delhi, like South Delhi Fight will be between BJP-Congress direct, BSP will not be a big factor here.
Till now I was analysing only BSP factor which damaged BJP in Assembly election and how the same is going to help BJP in Lok Sabha Elections.
There were also two important immediate environmental developments which let BJP down in assembly elections.
First, Mumbai attack: Adverse to conventional wisdom that Mumbai attacks will polarise people against terrorism hence Congress will suffer and BJP win gain handsomely. Actually what happened, Muslims feared harsh administrative steps like Batla House encounter, more raids and close checks so they united against BJP to vote for Congress didn’t split with BSP, Congress, RJD etc. The only assembly seat where they did not voted Congress was Matia Mahal ( a part of Old Delhi in Chandni Chowk Lok Sabha seat) with almost 905 Muslim population and they were fully confident that BJP can never win here. Here they voted for Shoaib Iqbal (LNJP of Ram Vilas Paswan), who has been regularly winning from this seat but on different party tickets ranging from Janta Dal, NCP JD-S and this time LNJP, but never on Congress ticket. The BJP workers become over confident after Mumbai attacks and Hindu voters remain inside house enjoying Live show of Mumbai attacks on Television with snacks and criticizing politicians with TV channels.
This time BJP workers after receiving a jolt in assembly elections will not be swayed away by over confidence.
Second, the much popular Pappu campaign ran by Election Commission – which targeted youth educated voters on the lines of popular film song; Pappu can’t dance sala (of ‘Jane Tu Ya Jane Naa” fame). The advertisement said like Pappu do everything runs bike, score high in exam, has styles but don’t votes. Actually it spread like that the one who donot have ink sign on his finger of voting, would be teased by his friends as Pappu. Avoiding this embarrassment all Pappus went to vote and they voted for Congress because of Shiela Dikshit personal image of development in Delhi while BJP had uninspiring candidates. BJP had done very wrong selection of candidates and CM nominee VK Malhotra in assembly elections.
In Lok Sabha elections Advani-Rajnath-Modi is a more attractive combination for voters over Manmohan-Sonia-Rahul. BJP should project good candidates in all constituencies.
February 12, 2009 at 5:20 PM
Dear Ritesh
it is not wise to put any candidate anywhere, really it is not only caste and community politics only, the process depths. A person may be a superb candidate (like Gorakhpur- Yogi Adityanath) in one constituency but in new constituency (may be kanpur), it may be foolish step that an outsider may irk local party people and in the process traditional seat (Gorakhpur) is also lost, becuse of his not contesting there. This time Gorakhpur also needs strong local BJP candidate only Yogi ji due to presence of Manoj Tewari, popular Bhojpuri Film star and singer and also a Brahmin as SP candidate. Ther is also a big factor of local politics and network. On the other hand Kanpur is an urban area, Yogiji type of politics may not work here among educated, colony living classes.
With all apologies for your innovative ideas for Advaniji, Yogiji, Sushmaji but local factors should also be taken care of properly.
What I think Advaniji should seriously think for LUCKNOW, seat of Sh. Atal Behari Vajpayee. LUCKNOW really deserves a candidate of his stature, if Vajpayee doesnot contest from there. It is also required due to presence od popular film star Sanjay Dutt, who can sway youths girls across all communities. If you remember only Advaniji could defeat Rajesh Khanna in 1991 in New Delhi by 2000 votes. Even Shatrughan Sinha lost against Rajesh in by-election.
KANPUR: BJP can win alone. Recall in 2006 mayor election BJP win alone against by more than 50000 votes. However there was no Congress-SP alliance. SP has its candidate, but damaged only BJP because he was BJP rebel and former MLA of BJP Neeraj Chaturvedi (a Brahmin), who cut BJP vote only. But due to SP-Congress alliance there will be no such vote splitter for BJP.
Also if BJP puts Muslim candidate it will dent Congress votes and help BJP.
February 12, 2009 at 9:20 PM
Hi Vikas,
I was very much worry about Delhi. After going through your analysis about Delhi, now i am fully confident, BJP may get more than 4 seats in Delhi. You always do ultimate analysis. Very few people in India can do
such type analysis. You have done great analysis about Delhi. If BJP leaders will get your help, definitely it will be major advantage to BJP.
Keep on doing your great job. Country needs stable gov, only BJP can
provide stable gov this time. Congress can not form gov at any cost this
time. You and Raj are not only helping BJP but also helping country. Stable gov will provide economic growth.
February 12, 2009 at 9:35 PM
Hi Vikas,
I am very much worry about BJP leaders. They are very serious about election or not. I have told many times BJP+ will get 250-265 seats provided
if they put 400% efforts. In Delhi assembly election BJP was not very serious, this should not happen. Choose always right candidate. One thing i want to make it very clear Congress+ is not weak party. Any small mistake done by BJP will provide major advantage to Congress. That we can see in Delhi assembly.
February 12, 2009 at 10:42 PM
Hi Vikas,
Sorry, I think, i was not able to put my views properly about Kanpur.
I wrote (see sentence given below)
===================================================
“BJP should take help of Adtiyanath in Kanpur to polarize Hindu votes”
=====================================================
I wrote , BJP should take help from Adtiyanath for campaign purpose.
I never told Adtiyanath should fight election from Kanpur. Basically i belong to Kanpur. His campaign will polarize hindu votes.
He can not win election from Kanpur and second thing If you see my up
UP list. In that list I have written BJP will win 100% from Gorakhpur If Adtiyanath is going to fight election from Gorakhpur. No quesstion of Adityanath should fight from Kanpur. He is great orator, this will help BJP
in Kanpur. Without Adityanath’s campaign BJP may win from Kanpur.
What i want to say, to win election in Kanpur there is need to do
10 activity. Adityanath’s campaign(he should have one day in Kanpur
not more than that) is one activity out of 10 actvities. Second may be
Advani’s meeting. Third may be Modi’s meeting like that.
February 12, 2009 at 10:52 PM
Hi,
Now i have given my view on Adtiyanath, later on I will talk about Advani, Sushma and Naidu.
February 13, 2009 at 6:14 AM
HI ritesh gupta and vikas kumar can please put this comments on shree advaniji’s blog please.thank you
February 13, 2009 at 7:47 AM
Vikas Ji, I am sure, that SP-Congress wont fight elections in alliance in UP.
February 13, 2009 at 7:55 AM
Vikas Ji, how about Sri Kalraj Mishr for Ghaziapur?
Is He Strong enough to Win from here?
I think, He is from Ghazipur
February 13, 2009 at 10:26 AM
okay.
I understand now.
so, SP-Congress Alliance would Benefit BJP?
in That case, congress should allign with SP and eat the humble Pie.
After defeat in Lok Sabha, both of them may part ways.
so, I wish, there be an alliance between SP and Congress and due to the presence of Kalyan Singh both SP and Congress lose the muslim vote and The Hindu vote re-galvanize to BJP
I was apprehensive that SP-Congress alliance would damage BJP.
But, as You are from UP and have a better understanding of TheSociological Psychology in UP, I take Your Word as final!!
In That Case, SP-Congress alliance would be left with just yadav and a few OBC Votes if any and some Thakur votes. while BSP would have dalit muslim combination.
In such a Scenario BJP should get Brahmins,Baniy,Kayasth(Srivastava),Jats(as a result of alliance with RLD),Kurmi(as a Result of JD-U as Alliance partner) and also some Lodh Votes by using Sakshi Maharaj and Ksatriya(Rajput/Thakur votes) as Sri Rajnath Singh Ji is A Thakur. This would be a formdable social network.
And BJP can benefit enormously.
In that case, NDA Would Win Maximum seats in UP followed by BSP and SP-Congress would come a poor third and ofcourse, both SP and Congress would blame each other for their Defeat and then part ways.
February 13, 2009 at 10:28 AM
And how about Sri Lalji Tandon’s Candidature from Luckhnow? He was The Poll Manager for Atalji since ’91.what are his winning Chances?
February 13, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Hi Raj,
Cogress and SP will have inteligence alliance(that way congress will not loose own base in UP).It means they will have friendly fighting on many seats. Like Congress is supporting MIM in old Hyderabad City by fielding own hindu candidate( dividing hindu votes).
February 13, 2009 at 11:10 AM
Hi Raj,
For example:
In Kanpur Congress will put Baniya candidate( Jaiswal)
SP will put Pandit
BJP will pandit
Pandit votes will be divided little bit. All muslim will go with congress.
That way BJP may loose election. Same type technique will be adopted all over UP.
February 13, 2009 at 11:12 AM
Hi Vikas Ji and Others, Aligarh has recently seen communal riots and hence there is high possibility that this time the votes will be polarized.
Presence of Kalyan Singh would certainly drift a large section of muslims to BSP and it is most likely that BSP confidant of dalit votes would field a muslim from here.
This is highly congenial to BJp and BJP should field Smt Sheila Devi Gautham who won four elections from ’91 should be fielded from here.
Also BJP’s Candidates for the following constituencies should be :
Raj Narayan Pasi(Bansangoan)
Santosh Gangwar(Bareily) which ofcourse BJP would Field Him, there is NO Other choice except for Him from Bareily.
Santosh Bihari Mishra(Bilhaur)
Ramesh Chandra Tomar(Hapur)
Ram Nagina Mishr(Padrauna)
They have All been Winning candidates.
Vikas Ji, Need more input from You on These Candidates for the said seats.
February 13, 2009 at 11:15 AM
Agra
Akbarpur
Aligarh
Allahabad ——————50%
Amethi
Amroha
Aonla
Azamgarh
Baghpat
Bahraich
Ballia
Balrampur
Banda
Bansgaon
Bara Banki
Bareilly—————————-90%
Basti
Bijnor
Bilhaur
Budaun
Bulandshahr
Chail
Chandauli ———————90%
Deoria
Domariaganj
Etah
Etawah
Faizabad
Farrukhabad
Fatehpur
Firozabad
Ghatampur
Ghazipur ——————-40% difficult to win
Ghosi
Gonda
Gorakhpur ——————100%
Hamirpur
Hapur
Hardoi
Hathras
Jalaun—————————100%
Jalesar
Jaunpur
Jhansi
Kairana
Kaiserganj
Kannauj
Kanpur
Khalilabad
Kheri
Khurja
Lalganj
Lucknow————————————100%
Machhlishahr
Machhlishahr
Maharajganj
Mainpuri
Mathura
Meerut
Mirzapur ———————–100%
Misrikh
Mohanlalganj
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Padrauna
Phulpur ——————-90%
Pilibhit———————-90%
Pratapgarh
Rae Bareli
Rampur
Robertsganj
Saharanpur
Saidpur
Salempur
Sambhal
Shahabad
Shahjahanpur
Sitapur
Sultanpur
Unnao
Varanasi ————–100%
February 13, 2009 at 11:50 AM
And how about Sri Ram Vilas Vedanti i Pratapgarh as Machlisahar has now become a reserved constituency.
He Won Pratapgarh in ’99 despite Kalyan Singh working to defeat BJP candidates from within.
February 13, 2009 at 11:52 AM
BJP Should Win Rampur too.
SP has once again fielded Jayaprada but she may no retain as she has lost contact with The Masses.
Rampur is A Prestigious Seat.
February 13, 2009 at 12:00 PM
In ’99 BJP Lost Ghatampur9Res) by a very low Margin. I am not sure, how the result was in ’04.
so, this time, BJP should field A Strong Dalit Candidate (a Non Jatav) and Win from here.
February 13, 2009 at 12:01 PM
BJPO’s candidate from Amroha is Ms Menaka Gandhi, therefore, BJP would Win this seat
February 13, 2009 at 12:01 PM
*I mean BJP’s candidate
February 13, 2009 at 12:03 PM
See 2004 Ghatampur9Res
======================
Candidates
Valid Votes in PC
Sl no.
Name
Party
Number
Percentage
4
RADHEY SHYAM KORI SP 160117
31.72
3
PYARELAL SANKHWAR BSP 149805
29.68
2
KAMAL RANI BJP 122845
24.34
5
UMAKANT MANJHI AD 46022
9.12
February 13, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Hi,
BJP’s performance in UP is not bad. If BJP works very hard, BJP may get
more than 30 seats.
February 13, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Hi,
Yes Maneka can win from Amroha.
See 2004 results
Sl no.
Name
Party
Number
Percentage
16
HARISH NAGPAL IND 287522 32.48
3
MAHMOOD MADNI RLD 269638 30.46
1
ALEY HASAN BSP 168698 19.06
2
CHETAN CHAUHAN BJP 130519 14.75
February 13, 2009 at 12:52 PM
Dear Raj & Ritesh
Maneka ji is not contesting from Amroha rather she is contesting from Aonla (consisting parts of Barielly & Badaun Districts). Last time this seat was won by JD(U) in alliance with BJP with thin margin. But this time the winner candidate Sarvraj Singh has crossed over to SP and JD(U) has left this seat for BJP probably in lieu of Badaun.
There is 100% possibility of Maneka’s victory here.
That’s why she has taken the step of leaving her traditional seat Pilibhit, a safe seat for her son Varun Gandhi.
February 13, 2009 at 12:55 PM
oh, there are many pairs of constituencies in UP which are confusing :
Aonla and Amroha
Etah and Etawah
Ghazipur and Ghaziabad
uh
quite confusing for A South Indian like me.
And Vikas Ji, Thanks for Correcting me.
Wherever she stands, Menaka Gandhi is Boud to Win,even if she contests as an Independent.
February 13, 2009 at 12:57 PM
Vikas Ji, I need Your Input for the candidates and The Constituencies I have mentioned above.
What are The Winning Chances.
And From where should Sri Kesari Nath Tripathi Contest Elections(He was The former Speaker of UP Assembly). Last time, He contested from Machlishahar and lost bu this time round, Machlishahar is A Reserved Constituency and Hence He being A Brahmin Cant contest from there.
February 13, 2009 at 1:05 PM
As I see, BJP has to leave Hope on :
Amethi, Akbarpur,Rae Bareily,Ballia, Kannauj, Sambhal.
What are the other constituencies from where it is ard for BJP to Win.
What are the chances of BJP in Balrampur, which was once used to be represented by Sri Atal Bihari Vaajpayee(in ’57 and ’67)
February 13, 2009 at 1:07 PM
But, I wish, SP-Congress Alliance Materializes in UP and congress accepts a humble 20 seats.
I think, it is in the making.
February 13, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Hi Vikas and Raj,
I want to ask one question. If Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi are going
to fight from UP. Then how many seats would Congress get ?
It is very important question. I think it may zero also.
February 13, 2009 at 1:24 PM
Dear Ritesh
Bilhaur, Ghatampur, Hapur, Padrauna seats have extinct in new delimitation.
The list u are referring is from last lok sabha election which held according to previous delimitation.
U can refer to foolowing link for new delimitation status:
http://www.eci.gov.in/CurrentElections/CONSOLIDATED_ORDER%20_ECI%20.pdf
It is repot on eci.gov.in website
February 13, 2009 at 1:27 PM
Vias Ji, I am eagerly Waiting for Your Input o The BJP Candidates and The Constituencies I have mentioned Above. As You know, I am Not well versed with The Socialogical Factors in UP.
February 13, 2009 at 1:36 PM
Bhagpat,Mathura,Fatehpur Sikri,Amroha, Muzzafarnagar, Nagina,Hathras
are The Seats BJP left for RLD.
of these,Bhagpat, Mathura,Amroha,Hathras are The Seats RLD Would Certainly Win with BJP’s Support for Sure.
I feel in This region, with BJP-RLD Alliance,the basic contest would be between NDA(BJP-RLD) and upa(sp-congress).
In This region, BJP should also try to get the votes of Non Jatav dalits.And BJP shouldnt field even a single Jatav dalit from UP in any of the reserved category.
February 13, 2009 at 1:42 PM
Agra
Akbarpur
Aligarh
Allahabad ——————50%
Amethi
Amroha———————–100%
Aonla————————–100%
Azamgarh
Baghpat———————-100%(RLD)
Bahraich
Ballia
Balrampur
Banda
Bansgaon
Bara Banki
Bareilly—————————-90%
Basti
Bijnor
Bilhaur
Budaun
Bulandshahr
Chail
Chandauli ———————90%
Deoria
Domariaganj
Etah
Etawah
Faizabad
Farrukhabad
Fatehpur
Firozabad
Ghatampur
Ghazipur ——————-40% difficult to win
Ghosi
Gonda
Gorakhpur ——————100%
Hamirpur
Hapur
Hardoi
Hathras—————————100%
Jalaun—————————100%
Jalesar
Jaunpur
Jhansi
Kairana
Kaiserganj
Kannauj
Kanpur
Khalilabad
Kheri
Khurja
Lalganj
Lucknow————————————100%
Machhlishahr
Machhlishahr
Maharajganj
Mainpuri
Mathura
Meerut—————————-100%
Mirzapur ———————–100%
Misrikh
Mohanlalganj
Moradabad
Muzaffarnagar
Padrauna
Phulpur ——————-90%
Pilibhit———————-90%
Pratapgarh
Rae Bareli
Rampur
Robertsganj
Saharanpur
Saidpur
Salempur
Sambhal
Shahabad
Shahjahanpur
Sitapur
Sultanpur
Unnao
Varanasi ————–100%
February 13, 2009 at 1:49 PM
Hi Vikas and Raj, (Give me answer)
I want to ask one question. If Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi are going
to fight from UP. Then how many seats would Congress get ?
It is very important question. I think it may zero also.
February 13, 2009 at 1:57 PM
Dear Raj
the similar set of confusing names also happens to appear in AP too like
Mehboobnagar – Mehboobabad
Guntur – Gudur
Well! we have to understand the distinction. I had always emphasized on micro level management i.e. seatwise, because it isnot relevant what vote% a party or alliance secures at state level rather it matters only in how many seats it is able to secure highest no. of votes i.e. win.
An important example analysis of micro management:
In UP in elections from 1999 -2007 if you analyse how the Muslims voted then you will find
SP 50 – 60 %
BSP 20 – 30%
Congress 10 – 15%
others 8 – 10%
On first face it looks like thatb Muslim vote was hugely divided.
This is a total wrong conclusion.
Actually they voted tactically. In almost every constituency, more than 90% Muslims voted for the same candidate which they found in strongest position to defeat BJP, it may be SP somewhere or BSP or Congress or RLD or even Independent.
The broad strategic priority of Muslims in 1999 Lok Sabha & 2002 Assembly Elections was to defeat BJP candidates. After achieving this target in 2002 Assembly elections,
They moved to second level strategy to give decisive majority to any one party alliance because they had seen in 2002 although BJP was defeated but no other party say SP could secure majority. As a result in hung house BSP joined hands with SP to form state govt, however which collapsed after 15 months.
So, in 2004 Lok Sabha they decided to make SP-RLD alliance won almost decisively 39 out of 80 MPs
In 2007 assembly elections they BSP is gaining strength with Brahmins and SP is also facing anti incumbency so they stood behind BSP in more no. where in the constituencies BJP was not big threat and one-third Muslims went to BSP and BSP got majority in assembly 207 out of 403.
Now this time in 2009 Muslims are planning to go to third level strategy after achieving second level strategy, to get maximum no. of Muslim MPs won and they may support any party which is capable of winning and has fielded Muslim.
Actually here lies the opportunity for BJP becuse at national level BSP is not a stable alternative, everybody knows the SP-Congress sounds like stable State-level as well as national level alternative, which attracts Muslims and BSP is fielding more no. of strong influential Muslims candidates.
And the most favourable thing is that media & political pundits are projecting BJP in a very weak status in UP so Muslims are not very frightened of BJP win so there is likelihood of Muslim vote division after 10 years.
I always had a strong feeling, whenever there is open news BJP is strong and winning in UP it definitely looses because then all Muslims unite and vote tactically to defeat BJP e.g. 1993, 1996, 1999, 2004, 2007. and when BJP is low key , then they go for other priorities and BJP wins 1998 Lok Sabha, 2000 & 2006 Urban Municipal bodies election
February 13, 2009 at 2:04 PM
I feel, in this election congress will win only 2 in UP seats : rae bareily and amethi.
Now, for BJP the seats they cannot win from UP in are :
1. Rae Bareily
2.Amethi
3.Moradabad
4.Sambhal
5.Kannauj
6.Akbarpur
7.Budaun(even if JD-U) contests, this has been a SP stronghold since the nineties
8.Kheri(seems very hard for BJP to Win)
9.Misrikh
10.Hardoi(BJP has Never won from here even during The Hindutva wave period!!!)
11. Mohanlalganj(Another SP Stronghold)
12.Bara Banki(Hard)
13.Gonda(seems Hard)
14.Salempur(BJP Never won from here!!!!)
15.Ballia(ma be This Time BJP may have a chance)
16.Azamgarh(Again BJP Never won from here)
17.Lal Ganj(same as above)
18.Allahabad(post delimitation as mentioned by Vikas Ji)
19.Etawah(due to Kalyan Singh)
20.Mainpuri(since mulayam would contest from here)
February 13, 2009 at 2:06 PM
Mehboobnagar and Mehaboobabad(new constituency) are certainly confusing for me, despite me being from AP
February 13, 2009 at 2:12 PM
Thanks Vikas Ji.
Thatz really Encouraging
Yes, The Underestimation of BJP by the psuedosecular sick and biased media is good for BJP in UP as well as Bengal. Where, Muslim votes are for sure going to be split between mamata and left front.
congress would come a poor cropper this time in bengal.
In Bengal another good News is GJM fighting for Gorkhaland has thrown it’s lot behind BJP and BJP is bound to Win in Darjeeling and also has good chance of wresting New Jalpaiguri(reserved)
BJP should also galvanize Anti-Congress votes in Raiganjpriya ranjan das munshi’s constituency) towards Themselves(The Hindu Votes) as LF is Weak here.
February 13, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Hi Vikas and Rajji,
It means instead of calling top leaders of BJP. BJP should take help of BJP cadres in UP.( door to door movement). It will keep BJP profile at low
level.
February 13, 2009 at 3:28 PM
Dear Raj
Dont discount the seats like Moradabad, Sambhal, Etawah, Allahabad, Mohanlalganj, Badaun, Azamgarh, Gonda.
I had adequate hopes on these seats.
I had very high hopes for Azamgarh seat, this time.
It is true that they had never won this seat and always stood third even in good Nineties. But there is a big churning here after 2007.
According to local estimates, voters in Azamgarh, 2 lakh Yadav followed by the Muslims 1.5 lakh.
Bhumihars:1 lakh + Thakurs : 70,000 + Brahmins: 40,000 + Kurmis : 30,000 = 2.5 Lacs app. .
In 2008 after Mayawati BSP govt taking over in 2007, there held By-election in Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat.
Then, the BSP’s Akbar Ahmed ‘Dumpy’ defeated Ramakant Yadav (BJP) by 54,251 votes. The Balram Yadav (SP) was at the third spot.
In that elections, BJP local organisation didnot supported Rama kant Yadav properly as he was new entry in party. This time, he is establish in party.
Also, Akbar Dumpy is denied ticket from BSP and Afzal Massood is given ticket because he come in support of anti-Batla House (Delhi)Encounter agitation.
Akbar Dumpy left by BSP is likely to join SP and fight on its ticket and split Muslim votes with BSP. Thus SP will also have a Muslim candidate not Yadav. In such scene, BJP (who is a local strong SP) candidate can take away all Yadav votes, which were splitted by SP last time in by-election.
In Moradabad & Sambhal, if both SP & BSP fielding Muslims, can definitely help BJP. BJP should put a Yadav in Sambhal.
In Budaun, SP cut the ticket of sitting Salim Iqbal for Dharmendra Yadav, Mulayam’s nephew. Salim may fight on BSP ticket. BJP-JD(U) should field a Maurya or Shakya here. Maurya is preferred brcause from neighbouring Mainpuri, BJP has fielded Shakya. Sharad yadav should campaign here for JD(U) as he has some base here because he had won this seat once in past.
Allahabad I had already discussed in my previous communication, it is not total hopeless but possible only with some given conditions.
Etawah is not that too difficult seat. Earlier mostly SP had won here but despite MULAYAM HOME DISTRICT, NEVER ANY PERSON FROM mULAYAM FAMILLY HAD CONTESTED HERE. They had always fielded a Shakya here. Further, their tallest Shakya leader former Assembly speaker Dhani Ram Verma of this district has left SP for BSP.
Also, the assembly segment- Jaswantnagar (home village Saifai of Mulayam lies in this seat) is taken out of Etawah seat, which gives highest lead to SP and merged in Mainpuri, where Mulayam Singh is contesting.
The Brahmins are more in no here than Yadavs, Thakurs are almost equal in no. to Yadavs. There are are also Shakyas, Lodhs, Muslims.
The biggest favourable thing is that Etawah is a resrved seat this time. So SP canot field any Shakya or Thakur neither BSP can field any Brahmin.
Mohanlalganj (SC) is adjoining to Lucknow and if Advaniji contests from Lucknow, then BJP can try this seat.
1 Bhai Lal M BSP 219601 28.53
2 Pakaudi Lal M SP 219262 28.49
3 Ram Shakal M BJP 158916 20.65
4 Sudhakar Chamar M INC 54987 7.14
February 13, 2009 at 4:06 PM
Vikas Ji, Thanks for The Detailed Information!!!
I am glad that Things are working well for BJP and are in BJP’s favour.
And most Important, The Favourable Atmosphere Appearing for BJP is Silent and it Should Remain A Silent Low Profile but Intense Wave in Favour of BJP as High Profile wave fo BJP would spoil the equations.
February 13, 2009 at 4:08 PM
Dear Ritesh
You have given a very right strategy, I could not think of really.
Loud campaign will rather hurt BJP.
Instead there should be real campaign.
BJP should not go for foolish campaigns like India shinning.
It should ensure high voterr turnout, by door to door campaign, booth management.
i remember in 2006 Municipal elections of UP, there was not much hulla, but good turnout 60-65% in essentially urban areas as it was only urban local body election.
But I tell high voting % was not due to BJP cadre efforts but it was Municipal elections so there were 50 to 100 + wards in every city and in each ward 15-20 candidates thus around 1000 candidates in a city. Every candidate pulling all efforts in his area gali mohalla and taking voting % so high. The voters brought by the efforts of different ward candidates mostly independent might have voted for them in ward but in Mayor or Municipality chairman seat they mostly supported BJP.
BJP should indirect campaigning in UP, i.e. it should focus on following points:
1) The pappu Campaign (study Delhi analysis) will help help BJP alot by motivating youths, students to vote in big number. In UP, youths will vote for BJP if they come for voting.
2) L.K.Advani ji should definitely contest from Lucknow along with Gandhinagar and he should make an open announcement that on becoming PM he will retain the seat (Lucknow or Gandhinagar) of that state (UP or Gujarat), thew state that will elect highest no. of BJP MPs. UP people are very sentimental about PM post, they had always seen PM from UP; and they will next PM is also from UP rather than than any other state. This will have a big positive effect all over UP. Gujarat CM Narendra Modi should do a challenging campaign in UP. He should openly say BJP will win 2 dozen seats in Gujarat can it win more than that or 30 seats in UP and have their PM from UP in election campaigns in UP.
3) BJP should focus on Kalyan Singh in UP. It doesnot mean thet should criticise ir badmouth about him rather they emphasize over how badly he is being treated in SP like an untouchable in Congress, Muslims burning his effigy and humiliating him for apologising, insult to Lodhs.
3) They should maintain he is our Hero wherever he stays. Yhe kind of campaign they did in Rampur 2 days back.
4) They should emphasize on Brahmins being ill treated by BSP govt and no benefits accrued to them while in Rajasthan BJP Govt. initiated process for making Reservations 14% for Upper caste poors including Brahmin, Thakur, Baniya, Kayastha. BJp has also took up issue of Jat reservation in Central services under OBC, indirectly through Jat Mahasabha in alliance with RLD.
5) The state Govt of BSP should be attacked for growing Criminalisation and involvement of BSP leaders in it and non-development-Bijli, Sadak, Pani, Shiksha.
6) While Congress SP Central Govt. should be targeted for Price-rise (may be the inflation figure is going down but people believe there is high increase in price of necessity items), economic slowdown-unemployment, terrorism.
Thanks to Election Commission it has banned exit polls this time, so strength of BJP will not be revealed in UP.
February 13, 2009 at 4:08 PM
My Conclusions were based on Data I recieved from Wikipedia on these constituencies for past Lok Sabha Polls.
However, I am glad that Things are changing a lot and are working in favour of BJP
Based on You Analysis, I now understand why it is essential for SP-Congress Alliance in UP.
May be that SP, which had already announced candidates for 52 Lok Sabha Seats would contest about 60 and leave 20 for congress.
February 13, 2009 at 4:09 PM
so After, WestBengal, Gujarat,Bihar, UP and TN, which state will see complete rout of congress? AP?
February 13, 2009 at 4:14 PM
Can Sakshi Maharaj Bring in The Lodh Votes back to BJP, as Lodhs are hurt by the treatment meted out to Kalyan Singh and the latter has abjectly surrendered to the demand of minority appeasing sp-congress combine. Is Sakshi Maharaj Powerful Enough?
Is He A Vote Catcher?
February 13, 2009 at 4:16 PM
Yes, though inflation has come down, there is NO Relief for Common Man.
But, I have a Question here, wont Advani Ji’s Entry in Lucknow create A High Profile Campaign in UP for BJP and would it Not prove Counter Productive?
I am for Sri Lalji Tandon as Candidate from Lucknow.
February 13, 2009 at 4:25 PM
BJP can get Lodh votes if it can even without Sakshi Maharaj, if the message get down well with the Lodhs that Kalyan Singh is being highly ill treated as an untouchable by Congress Muslims and eventually by SP, then BJP should make it acampaign point and give a couple of LS tickets to fresh youth Lodhs one in Doab and one in Bundelkhand hene run Lodh Gaurav Rath Yatra with Kusum rai campaigning. Well they had already announced a Lodh candidate from Hamirpur in Bundelkhand.
February 13, 2009 at 4:37 PM
Alright.
If BJP decides to field Sakshi Maharaj, from where should He fight the election.
February 13, 2009 at 4:41 PM
High profile campaign should be avoided but not to the extent even if it benefits then also we should have allergy for it. Actually Advaniji contestuing from Lucknow will not create hoopla too much rather it will create a hope in UP people to have PM from their own state, really UP people are very emotional about this point. They always feel lilke that we send highest no. of MPs and Central Govt. is made in UP, this emotional chord of UP people should be targeted.
Well, with the entry of Sanjay Dutt and owing to seat of Former PM Vajpayee ji Lucknow seat is already high profile election. If Advaniji contests from Lucknow, it is natural and actually in a way he will be paying back the debt of Vajpayee ji when Vajpayee contested from Gandhnagar in 1996 as Advaniji could not contest due to his name appeared in Hawala case and Vajpayee ji took care of his seat. Only Advaniji can take place of Vajpayee ji, not any Lalji Tandon or Kalraj Mishra. Rather bringing these people will start grouping and infightings. Tandon ji should stay in Assembly and state politics and Kalraj ji should look after overall management of election as state incharge.
February 13, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Meanwhile, Sakshi Maharaj has thrown His weight behind BJP. He stated, Rashtriya Kranti Party would work for BJP’s success whole heartedly in the coming elections.
I have the link, but, whenever, I send with the link, it’s not getting posted.
Sakshi Maharaj has blasted Kalyan Singh for the latter’s hobnobbing with SP.
February 13, 2009 at 4:51 PM
BJP should refrain from fielding Sakshi Maharaj at all. His presence will irk Brahmins as his name is attached with infamous Brahma Dutt Dwivedi murder case (Farrukhabad), after actually Brahmins started deserting BJP for different parties and finally get lured by BSP. If he campaigns for BJP from independent forum well OK but he should not be taken in BJP. BJP should apporoach fresh, clean, energtic, good image, educated Youth Lodh as candidate.
The seat I will disclose in next communication. It is a very very important seat and my home place seat. actually living at that place for 25 years since my birth had made me staunch BJP supporter. It is the real Hindutva seat If any guesses, can you tell that seat.
February 13, 2009 at 5:03 PM
Now That Sri Rajnath Singh Ji has Got A Nationwide Status as BJP’s National President. Will Thakurs Desert SP and Rally Behind BJP.
And I am seriously Mesmerized by Sri Rajnath Singh Ji’s Hindi.
I have seen many Native Hindi Speakers and interacted with them in person. But, Sri Rajnath Singh Ji’s Hindi is The Best.
InFact, His Command over Hindi exceeds that of former PM Sri Atal Bihari Vaajpayee and Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi(Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi uses lot of Sanskrit Words)
February 13, 2009 at 5:07 PM
Oh, I see. Alright.
And ca You Please give from Which Region You Are Speaking of. And is it A High Profile Seat? Any Clue? Hard for me to Guess.Are You by anychance speaking of Balrampur? How would he crossing over of BrajBushan Sharan Singh to SP affect BJP.
February 13, 2009 at 5:08 PM
or are You speaking of Mirzapur?
February 13, 2009 at 5:15 PM
i think vikas is from Faizabad
February 13, 2009 at 5:15 PM
oh, I forgot about it completely. my Bad
February 13, 2009 at 5:16 PM
oh yeah, Faizabad is very close to Ayodya. BJP Should Win This Seat.
February 13, 2009 at 5:17 PM
I think Vikas should his email ID. I have lot of things to ask, but i want to ask them personally
February 13, 2009 at 5:18 PM
And BJP Should Field Vinay Katiryar from here instead of wasting such a high profile candidate against sonia or raul.
February 13, 2009 at 5:19 PM
LKAdvani.in, if You want, I will give my e-mail ID: yavsrajesh@yahoo.co.in
February 13, 2009 at 5:23 PM
i have already mailed u with the subject ‘BJP’
February 13, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Hi Raj,
You are right, Vinay Katiyar’s service should be used by BJP immediately.
If BJP can not win those seats at any cost, BJP should not spend time there.
February 13, 2009 at 5:39 PM
The Same With Ram Vilas Vedanti
February 13, 2009 at 7:11 PM
Vinay Katiyar may contest from Ambedkar Nagar
February 13, 2009 at 7:41 PM
Is it A Lok Sabha Constituency?
February 14, 2009 at 10:37 AM
Dear Raj & Ritesh
Well ! all your guesses could not hit the right target to identify my homeplace.
I had already told the seat lies in Doab region, has sizeable Lodh voters and if yoy remember in my beginning communications, I was giving too much emphasis on Western UP, you people were asking for analysis on rest of UP.
I belong to Western UP Doab region, and the BJP till now not declared candidate from here therefore I suggested a politically youth, energetic, charismatic, educated, experienced, fresh, Hindutva icon, fire brand women Lodh candidate.
The seats in Western UP Doab region with sizeable Lodh population: Buland shahar, GB nagar, Mathura, Hathras, Aligarh, Etah, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Ferozabad, Mainpuri, Farrukhabad, Kannauj, Etawah.
BJP has already announced candidates from all these seats except only one, that is my homeplace.
One more hint, I honour Advaniji as tallest real Hindutva leader because he was born in Karachi (pakistan) and has himself witnessed the pain of partition of India – dangerous result of Pseudo secular politics.
My city (seat) has also witnessed such dangreous riots and it is the house of highest modern Muslim education Institution.
This sat has continuously from 1991elected BJP candidate with good margins till 1999 (four times in a row). BJP lost this seat by a wafer thin margin of less than 3000 votes (0.5%) last time.
So, try out and find.
February 14, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Aligarh
February 14, 2009 at 11:42 AM
oh Yeah!! I completely forgot about This Constituency.
And one Interesting thing ABout Aligarh is that : Aligarh had Never Elected a Muslim MP!!!!
February 14, 2009 at 11:44 AM
The Biggest Clue You have given and made it easy for us is that You mentioned it has Mulsim Institution.
BJP Should Win This Seat. I am Glad, since 2007, Aligarh had once again seen some Polarization. This is Good for BJP.
February 14, 2009 at 11:47 AM
oh, Alright Arun and I have Joined too
I post there as RajofYourHeart
February 14, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Hi Raj,
What is meaning of
”
oh, Alright Arun and I have Joined too
I post there as RajofYourHeart
“
February 14, 2009 at 1:00 PM
well, Arun has invited me to Join LKADVANI.IN Forum and I have Joined The Forum.
February 14, 2009 at 2:58 PM
who is Arun.
February 14, 2009 at 3:36 PM
He is The One, Who Posts as LKADVANI.IN
February 14, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Well! you are right it is Aligarh, which also happens to be the home district of Kalyan Singh.
The most suitable candidate from this seat, with all those qualities I listed earlier, I will suggest in next communication.
February 14, 2009 at 3:47 PM
Alright Vikas Ji. You almost gave the answer when You stated, The Constituency You are speaking, has a famous muslim Educational Centre.
February 14, 2009 at 5:11 PM
Hi,
Aligarh Muslim University
February 15, 2009 at 3:56 PM
BJP Releases A List of 16 Candidates :
Mainpuri — Ms Tripti Shakya, an Allahabad based Folk Singer, whose Birth Place is Etawah. It seems, about 50% of This Constituency has Shakya’s and so if BJP can get atleast 80% of the Shakya’s vote for her, BJP can Humiliate mullah-yam in his own constituency
Kairana — Hukum Sing Gurjar
Farukhkabad — Mitilesh Aggarwal
Fatehpur Sikri — Aridaman Singh
Moradabad — Survesh Singh(Not Rama Kant Yadav)
Shahjahanpur(SC) — Krishna Raj
Khiri — Ajay Mishr Teni
Misrik(SC) — Anil Bharghav
Mohanlalganj — Ranjan Choudhary
Kannauj — Subrat Pathak
Koshambi — Subrat Choudhary
February 15, 2009 at 4:06 PM
And Friends and Fellow Well Wishers of BJP, The Alliance With RLD is intact as The Seats alloted for RLD are : Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Mathura, Amroha, Hathras, Nagina and Sitapur
RLD isnt contesting from Kairana and Fatehpur sikri this time.
February 15, 2009 at 4:07 PM
It seems RLD wants Aambhal, Saharanpur and Bijnor
I would Like to know from Our Expert on UP, Sri Vikas Ji to Throw some Light on The Winnability of These Candidates.
February 15, 2009 at 4:50 PM
* Sambhal and Not Aambhal
February 15, 2009 at 5:56 PM
As per Vikas Ji’s Analysis, Hukum Singh Gujjar has a High Possibility of Winning Kairana Seat
And I personally Wish, Tripti Sakhya Wins from Mainpuri and dislodges SP Leader maulvi mullah-yam
February 16, 2009 at 10:54 AM
i think vikas wants Kusum Rai to contest from his constituency
February 16, 2009 at 10:58 AM
Thanks Raj, Ritesh your also invited..
In my own way i am trying to promote Advaniji website hence i am using that as my name..
Regards,
Arun
February 16, 2009 at 11:54 AM
You are Welcome Arun Ji
February 16, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Also I Hope and Wish, Our Friendship and BonHomie Extends Beyond May 2009 and is Not limited to Election related Discussion.
Thatz The Reason, I ask You All to please Join The Yahoo Group : Hindu_Youth_Action.
Though The Name says Youth, Your Age is NO Bar.
We Discuss there, Issues Pertaining to Hinduism.
And Hey Guys, I am Not even a Practicing Hindu, I am An Atheist but Hold Sanatana Dharma in High Esteem and Will Oppose Pseudo Secularism as secularism in India has become synonymous with promotion of totalitarian sects such as Evil Evangelism, Anti-Human Jehadi Forces and Anti-National communism
February 16, 2009 at 12:47 PM
No No not Kusum rai, she will not attract Aligarh voters.
Remember, I said charismatic, firebrand, Hindutva icon, young, energetic, experienced, fresh Lodh woman candidate.
February 16, 2009 at 1:11 PM
Sorry Vikas Ji.
unable to Guess.
anyway, I request You to Throw light on BJP’s Latest List of andidates from Their Respective Constituencies.
February 16, 2009 at 1:13 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, One such Leader who fits All The Criteria You Enlisted is Uma Bharati, but she has formed her own party. However, she doesnt belong to Aligarh.
so are You by any chance speaking of Sadhvi Ritambara?
February 16, 2009 at 2:21 PM
Raj now you have hit the right name – UMA BHARTI
She is not in BJP rightnow,
But after MP assembly elections, she knew she has no future outside BJP,
and it is the right time to approach her now.
I had never that the the person should be from Aligarh but one should be Lodh, which she is and had all the merits I listed.
May be Uma ji don’t belong to Aligarh inpolitical life but she has passed some part of her childhood in Aligarh.
Morover, she will create election here high proifile many non-partisan voters may go with her in the hope she will become Union Minister, Aligarh never got a Central minister.
Aligarh never got a Lodh MP in the past , so she will motivate 1.5 lakh Lodhs here.
Very Important Uma Bharti, should not be bring back in BJP through MP bec. her entrance in MP in BJP will rather create factionalism and infighting and her absence from MP and joining BJP will drove her 2.5% votes of Bhartiya Janshakti Party to BJP in MP which may add up couple of seats to BJP in MP
February 16, 2009 at 2:36 PM
Vikas, Everybody including you are saying RLD is key to BJP success, but always whenever the BJP has tiedup with them it has faired very badly in the elections..
February 16, 2009 at 2:41 PM
Ur thoughts on the five new candidates announced by SP..
Raj and Vikas, i found ur dicussion in south India a thousand options about TN, i am from TN and now live in Maha, i can tell u for sure that caste combinations are a stupid thing in Tn, yes in ealry 90s the nadars and dalits supported DMK and Thevars the ADMK, but today the cenario is very different, it is pro and anti incumbency against the sate government… PMK is rated highly to have a huge vote base, all of which is haox, to the credit of PMK they know which alliance will do well and join them, this time they are in a fix as TN appears to give a fractured verdict….
February 16, 2009 at 2:54 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
In my selection of candidates, I had not gone for the criterion totally, rather I had focussed on personality criterion.
As you have rightly pointed the pro & anti incumbency behaviour always in TN earlier, but this time the situation is fluid and there are also no parallel assembly elections too, which opens an opportunity for new alternative.
So, in such a case candidate, combinatios, local issues and over all Sri Lankan Tamils issue will play a great role.
The alliance objective is to only look winnable in election otherwise party’s own votes go to other winning party candidates or they don’t vote at all.
February 16, 2009 at 2:57 PM
Vikas, Everybody including you are saying RLD is key to BJP success, but always whenever the BJP has tiedup with them it has faired very badly in the elections..
Your comments on the same
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/kalyan-katiyar-against-any-alliance-with-rld-for-lok-sabha-elections/361210/
The fourth paragraph in the articles puzzles me
February 16, 2009 at 3:28 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
whenever the BJP has tiedup with RLD it has fared very badly in the elections.
is not a fact if you see the data.
In West UP + Rohilkhand 126 seats:
(which is the home area of Kalyan Singh, Ajit Singh, Mulayam Singh and has sizeable Jat, Lodh & Yadav votes)
In 2002 assembly elections, when BJP-RLD alliance was there, they got BJP(without Kalyan Singh) 26 and RLD 16 = Total 42
In 2007 assembly elections, when BJP(with Kalyan Singh) & RLD were fighting independently, they got BJP 19 and RLD 10 = Total 29
The news article u were referring was dated Sept 2008, when Kalyan Singh was in BJP.
He always opposed RLD alliance because he saw it an challenge to himself actually.
The fourth para refers to the case of 96 & 98 LS elections when BJP won 50-60 seats in UP and RLD was not formed, situation has completely changed since then after 10-12 years. The current situation should be analysed in the backdrop of last 3 elections 2002 Assembly 2004 Lok Sabha 2007 Assembly elections.
BJP-RLD alliance will prevent division of Jat votes, makes candidates winnable & consolidate Upper castes other wise they (Brahmins) may go to BSP.
February 16, 2009 at 3:31 PM
Ah!!! Finally, I could Hit Right!!!
Well, I knew, she said, BJSP Should Work with BJP in Lok Sabha on The Eve of counting of MP Elections.
And You are Right. Uma Bharati’s re-entry to BJP in MP will led to factionalism. Instead her cervices in UP Either in Fatehpur or Aligarh would Benefit BJP and also Neutralize Kalyan Singh Effect.
RSS Should Play A Major Role and bring in Uma Bharati in BJP Through UP.
And, I didnt know that she has spent some part of her life in Aligarh.
Also Uma Bharati’s friends in BJP like Vasundhara Raje Scindia Whom Uma Ji Respects A Lot and Sri Narendra Mod Ji should Pacify her. Also, Her Re Entry will Spread an UnderCurrent of Hindutva Wave even if She isnt as Vibrant as She was in the early Nineties.
February 16, 2009 at 5:31 PM
Vikas Ji, You are Right. Seriously, You have A Great Political Speculation.
Here’s The News Item I found on Uma Bharti’s Return to BJP before 2009 Polls:
In order to compensate the loss of powerful Lodh(OBC) leader , the BJP leadership has contacted Uma Bharti, to return to the party fold and fill the gap caused by the departure of Kalyan Singh from the party leadership.
A section of the BJP leadership initiated the move of luring in the Uma Bharti, also a Lodh leader, when she herself approached some of the leaders for rehabilitation in the BJP following the debacle of her fledgling political outfit in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly election. Even Uma Bharti herself lost her assembly seat. Uma Bharti and Govindacharya, former BJP ideologue, are running the Bhartiya Jan Shakti, and both of them feel languishing and stranded in absence of a powerful political platform.
The insiders in the BJP revealed to India Today that unlike the previous occasions, Uma Bharti will have to rejoin the party on party’s conditions and the party would not surrender before her and before maturing talks, would bargain with her. The pro-Uma Bharti camp led by none but the BJP president Rajnath Singh herself, wants her to campaign in the Hindi belt in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections and convince the electorate that the BJP is not an anti-OPC party, a charge being levelled by Kalyan Singh, who would this time campaign for the Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav.
It is said, Uma Bharti wants Hamirpur Lok Sabha constituency in UP for one of her trusted hand Ganga Charan Rajput .But the BJP has declared another candidate from Hamirpur hinting that no condition of hers would be acceptable to the BJP this time. Before this, Uma Bharti has twice been in the BJP and both time walked out of the party in a dramatic manner levelling serious allegations against senior party leaders, Lal Krishna Advani, Arun Jaitley, Venkaiyya and some other leaders. And this is the lobby which is reluctant in her comeback but at the same time, another group feeling lack of a popular and vocal leader in the Hindi belt wants Uma in the party, if it has to replace UPA at Centre after the parliamentary elections.
February 16, 2009 at 5:33 PM
If Umaji returns to Party fold then in Govindacharya too should be fielded in the south from Tirunalveli
February 16, 2009 at 8:50 PM
Hi Raj,
Govindacharya too should be fielded in the south from Tirunalveli
Tell me state of Tirunalveli.
February 17, 2009 at 3:36 AM
I am Not much aware of This Constituency except that SriRangam is A Part of This Constituency which is Considered A Place of Brahminical Importance and This Place once had A Huge Brahmin Population.
February 17, 2009 at 11:09 AM
However I must Add Winnability is very Low for BJP here.
But Still, BJP Should fight from here and develop a Base.
February 17, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Gorakhpur Loksabha constituency there is very low chances to win again for yogi adityanath because of his anti muslim & anti brahmin image. there are very big chances to win BSP candidate mr. Vinay shankar Tiwari because of Fixed Dalit Vote Bank & Strong Brahmin Candidature. SP will show their presence only .
February 17, 2009 at 1:24 PM
Vikas ur comments on Rajiv’s claim
February 17, 2009 at 1:34 PM
Rajiv Ji, Yogi Adityanath Never banked on muslim votes.
so foget about Muslims.
But, His Anti-Brahmin Image(if he had) then it is seriously of concern.
February 17, 2009 at 1:38 PM
Well what Rajiv is writing looks superficial, actually I tell you it is not only caste politics same way everywhere, even if there is some element of Brahmins groupism that too will be hit by presence of two Brahmins both from SP & BSP.
Actually, in Gorakhpur it is not like Rajiv said at all, there Yogiji name consolidates all Hindus including Yadavs and large part of Dalits. He secured more than 50% votes in last LS election. Even in the assembly election, out of 10 seats which he got to stand his own candidates from BJP, BJP won seven even when BJP fared very bared in Assembly elections over all. But nobody other than him as BJP candidate can win here. Here image of Yogiji is larger than the party.
Recently 2 days back Yogiji conducted Rashtra raksha Rally in G’pur which was a huge success with massive crowd. really writing on this point, feels like wasting time, which could be used for analysing some other seats.
February 17, 2009 at 1:55 PM
Well coming to the track, now analyse some more seats and new developments.
First, the thing I am eagerly looking for, there appears development on that aspect. Yes the SP-Congress alliance is now taking shape. Digvijay Singh said two days back, Congress will swallow bitter taste even for alliance and SP’s Amar Singh alliance will be finalised in a couple of days. While announcing five more candidates (total 58 SP candidates till now), he said a letter for proposal of alliance has been sent to Congress for conceeding 15 seats to Congress and +4or5 seats for friendly contests. Thus to sum up SP has announced 58 candidates, it will announce a couple of more candidates, so total 60. 15-16 seats Congress would be contesting and in 4-5 seats (Rampur, Farrukhabad, Pratapgarh, Allahabad, etc.) there will be friendly contests.
Second, BJP-RLD-JD(U) is almost finally and final announcement of alliance and seat distribution likely to be announced in another 2-3 days.
More SP rebel musclemen & Muslim leaders are joining BSP everywhere:
Shafiq-ur-Rahman Barq (Sambhal, Moradabad), Mukhtar Ansari & Bros. (Varanasi, Ghazipur), Atiq Ahmad (Allahabad, Phulpur)
making BSP a mafia & Muslim dominated party in Poorvanchal and alienating Brahmins away from BSP to BJP (with candidates like Dr. urli Manohar Joshi – Varanasi)
February 17, 2009 at 2:09 PM
The seat actually I am really worried for about BJP in UP is LUCKNOW, which is otherwise considered to be safe won seat for BJP.
Sanjay Dutt’s entry there may upset all caste community party calculations and may sway over all youths & women, I got such indications while interacting with some students from Lucknow.
No local leader could match him, BJP really needs a high profile charismatic candidate here L K ADVANI.
February 17, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Advani should contest from lucknow!!!!
Vikas, what impact is Varun having on UP politics….
February 17, 2009 at 2:22 PM
well there is good news in Varanasi & Moradabad Divn. what I was speculating two days back, it happened like that.
MUkhtar Ansari, a Don of Varanasi Divn. has joined BSP and he & his brother Afzal has been made BSP candidate from varanasi & ghazipur respectively. And most likely Atiq Ahmad is going to be BSP candidate fronm Phulpur, Allahabad.
This is the region where there was mass exodus of Brahmins from BJP to BSP in the past. With BSP now becoming like Muslim League by inducting mafia criminal Muslim don leader, it will throw bach Brahmins into BJP’s kitty as there are no Congress candidates in this area due to alliance with SP. so, BJP will naturally pick up these floating Brahmin votes here in 6-7 seats.
Only in Varanasi, Congress has put candidate but in front of Dr. M M Joshi, the incumbent Congress Brahmin candidate does not has much favour of Brahmins votes.
One more seat, Allahabad may have a Congress candidate in friendly contest with SP, but here BSP has also announced Brahmin candidate so Brahmin votes will be divided lot.
February 17, 2009 at 2:26 PM
L.K.Advani ji should definitely contest from Lucknow along with Gandhinagar and he should make an open announcement that on becoming PM he will retain the seat (Lucknow or Gandhinagar) of that state (UP or Gujarat), the state that will elect highest no. of BJP MPs.
UP people are very sentimental about PM post, they had always seen PM from UP; and they will next PM is also from UP rather than than any other state. This will have a big positive effect all over UP.
Gujarat CM Narendra Modi should do a challenging campaign in UP. He should openly say BJP will win 2 dozen seats in Gujarat can it win more than that or 30 seats in UP and have their PM from UP in election campaigns in UP.
February 17, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Rebel SP leader Shafiq-Ur-Rahman Barq has left SP and joined BSP and he has been made BSP candidate from Sambhal seat. SP has made Iqbal Mahmood its candidate here. SO BJP should let Muslim votes divide and get all Hindu votes including Yadavs by announcing a Yadav candidate here.
In addition to Sambhal, in region around Moradabad BSP has named Muslim candidates from Bareilly, Rampur, Amroha, Bijnore, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana and likely to field a Muslim from Moradabad & Badaun also, only in Nagina (SC) they had not made a Muslim candidate as it is a reserved seat. This has made BSP a Muslim League here and SP is losing Muslim support over Kalyan Singh issue. Thus it is becoming out of fight in this area, which was their stronghold earlier winning 5 out of 9 seats last time. BJP can attract also Yadav here in a polarised scenario.
February 17, 2009 at 2:48 PM
I think Sathish Mishra is a brilliant chap, he wants to finish of the SP even at the cost of benifiting BJP. His actions seems to make BSP a Dalit- Muslim party replacing SP at the state and congress at the centre.
In the next assembly elections in UP, i think it would be BJP VS BSP, SP may loose a lot of ground…
February 17, 2009 at 2:49 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
Frankly speaking Varun Gandhi is still a very young joining face in UP politics. He is making his identity, in future he may emerge as an inspiring youth leader due to his intellectual thinking and oratory skills. His style of speech reminds one of young Vajpayeeji.
But as of now, really he is not a big face but party should definitely develop generation-X leaders.
I feel even Rahul Gandhi even today after 5 years as MP and Congress Gen. Secy. hardly impacts on UP politics barring 3-4 seats around Amethi despite so much Media hoopla and focus on him.
February 17, 2009 at 2:53 PM
Continuing from my previous post…
SP also appears to help BJP in a bit to cut the influence of BSP. I think both BSP and SP are keen on damaging each other even if it helps BJP…
February 17, 2009 at 2:55 PM
Rahul is no match to Varun, Varun is a well educated guy. Using his merit he studied from London School of Economics and now he a post graduate. On the other hand Rahul had to Fudge his certificates to get an admin in St Stephens…
U will get all info in Wikipedia…
Varun is palnning to marry a bengali and hence there are plans in the BJP to shift him to WB….
February 17, 2009 at 3:13 PM
By the way, what do u do Vikas??
February 17, 2009 at 3:34 PM
I dont understand The Relevance of JD(U) in UP.
With NO Big Leader, where do They have any chance.
Or is JD(U) a Liability for BJP in UP.
JD(U) has Not been able to romp in disgruntled SP Leaders including Kurmis like Beni Prasad Verma.
Furhter, Kurmis in UP may sail with Apna Dal while Yadavs would either remain with SP or may be their votes may get split this time around.
So, of what use can JD(U) be in UP is my Question.
February 17, 2009 at 3:43 PM
Vikas Ji, Well Said About Varun
He is An Intellectual and Is The Most Qualified Person from Nehru Family.
Remember : Indira was college drop out
Rajiv and Sanjay didnt go beyond high school.
sonia didnt study beyond elementary grade
Menaka was a drop out and opted modelling
raul vinci has been thrown Out from St. Stephens and Harward(wher he got through Donor’s quota and NOT on Merit) and got a diploma frm rollin’s college in the suburbs of orlando florida which is an evangelical school and one needs to read just one book there to get the degree irrespective of the field of study and the duration of the course.
priyanka did her Masters, but was Not A Genius.
It’s Only Varun, Who is Well Qualified and Highly Intellectual in Nehru Family
February 17, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Raj by and large U are very right but for national politics consideration BJP concedes a couple of seats to them and ensure there is no JDU candidateds in remaining 78 seats and JDU also lends big campaigners like Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav.
February 17, 2009 at 3:47 PM
wow!! That will be Great!!!!
Varun can certainly Help BJP in West Bengal.
What I like of Him is He isnt banking on the nehru family but is building an Image for Himself as A Politician, bot the one born with silver spoon in his mouth.
it’s just a hooplah around raul vinci
to know more about raul vinci and antonio maino aka sonia maino, please Watch Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Speeches in YouTube.
February 17, 2009 at 3:49 PM
Okay.
Should Sharad Yadav contest from UP.
If so, Which Seat should He?
I wont Mind, if BJP gives 5 seats to JD(U), Provided, JD(U) can win atleast 3 seats
February 17, 2009 at 3:49 PM
* I mean in UP
February 17, 2009 at 3:57 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
Well about me, I am aged 30 years and had done B.Tech. (Chemical Engg.) & M.B.A. from Aligarh Muslim University, an Institute for which I had high respect which had great contribution in building my personality, developming my thinking and understanding of issues and creating my ideologies.
I am working as an Asst. Professor in Faculty of Management at a private university in Dehradun. I had 6 years of academic experience off which 4 years I had worked at a private college in Mathura in beginning. Currently I am pursuing my part time Ph. D. in Managementfrom Atal behari Vajpayee – IIITM Gwalior.
February 17, 2009 at 4:04 PM
5 seats for JD(U) in UP is much more than that even which they themselves ask for. @ is maximum and one best I will suggest is Sambhal, with both SP & BSP fielding Muslim candidate there, he will be opnly hindu to attract BJP votes in addition to Yadav votes.
If I recall you in 2002 Assembly Elections JDU’s Yadav candidate won from gunnaur earlier a part of Sambhal LS seat as NDA combined candidate, when there was BJP-RLD-JDU alliance and Kalyan Singh was out of BJP.
February 17, 2009 at 4:04 PM
Wow!!! You are a Fellow Academician like me!!!!
Nice to meet You Vikas Ji
February 17, 2009 at 4:07 PM
I was right
Congress i now crying fowl, becuase BSP has become a Muslim League
http://www.zeenews.com/states/2009-02-18/508226news.html
February 17, 2009 at 4:08 PM
That’s Great News!!, And Today it’s A Replica of The same in Wester UP with an Added Advantage that muslim votes would be Split by SP-Congress combine and BSP.
Also, unlike in 2002, when there was Anti-Incumbency against BJP this time There is Anti incumbency against UPA and BSP
Another Advantage is Media blowing up BSP’s prospects and undermining BJP’s Strength.
February 17, 2009 at 4:11 PM
Another factor that is likely to Help BJP is : The way Kalyan Singh is being treated by his new companions. This would Hurt Lodhis.
Also, Uma Bharti is likely to return before the polls and Sakshi Maharaj has thrown His weight behind BJP and ridiculed kalyan singh for joining hands with congress -sp.
I feel, mullahyam will regret a lot post polls.
February 17, 2009 at 4:13 PM
hahahahaha
so, the communal congress is already sensing DEFEAT!!!!!
February 17, 2009 at 4:22 PM
I should complement Sathish Mishra.. He developed this sustainable Muslim- Dalit equation in UP espically to decimate the SP. The good thing for BJP is that it is the only party which does not follow pseudo secularism and hence no other party can emerge to cut its vote bank..
February 17, 2009 at 4:25 PM
madan lal Kurana has also deserted BJSP and joined the BJP, he is part of the Delhi BJP in the election preparation commitee
February 17, 2009 at 4:27 PM
In Rampur : with friendly contest between SP and congress becoming inevitable, BJP has a high chance as BSP would field a muslim frm here.
since, the muslim community doesnt consider, Muqtar Abbas Naqvi as a Strong Candidate(particularly when JayaPrada is in the fray thinking Hindu votes would be splt), There are Fairly High chances for BJP Winning from Rampur. He is one of The Very Few Secular Muslim Leaders in India
February 17, 2009 at 4:27 PM
Good news from Rajasthan, Shekawat is going to actively campaign for BJP. He has clearly told RSS that Raje should control herself in the party and that is the only demand, he has also assured that he will take care of dissents…
February 17, 2009 at 4:28 PM
Also, I feel, Tritpi Sakhya Ji will give mulayam a run for his money as Mainpuri now has 50% Sakya Population. I personall Wish, She trounces mullahyam. BSP should field a Strong Muslim from here.
February 17, 2009 at 4:32 PM
Wow!!! Thatz Another Great News!!!
Look at our biased media(which ofcourse in A Way is Helping BJP in Their Traditional Stronghold but unfortunately is dampening hopes in South), when kalyan singh has quit, it was in Headlines, when Bhairon Singh Shekhawat gave jitters, it ran for a week atleast
but, the return of Heavyweights is Not being Mentioned.
Infac, cnn-ibn is working as a congress news network, even a minor rally addressed by sonia or raul will become headlines, but Huge Rally’s Addressed by Advani Ji are NOT Covered.
February 17, 2009 at 4:33 PM
soon, Uma would follow Suit.
She would ReJoin BJP
February 17, 2009 at 4:36 PM
any indications to the same???
February 17, 2009 at 4:38 PM
Raj
About rampur
with Azam becoming more & more vocal SP rebel from day by day and the latest incident of 2 days back, while returning from Lucknow the car of Azam with his son was severely hit allegedly a murder attempt according to him has fuelled his opposition to SP. his posture will wean away Muslim votes from Jaya Prada SP candidate in Rampur, Azam Khan’s home place. Further Jaya P. dismal performance as MP has also distracted common voters & Hindus in area.
The Muslim votes are likely to divide among Congress (it is likely Cong will field former MP Begum Noor Bano in friendlycontest with SP here) and BSP Muslim candidates.
Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi BJP may get most of the Hindu votes along with dissident Muslim voters of all parties, the neglected sections among them.
Now there are fair chances of BJP victory here.
February 17, 2009 at 7:47 PM
Hi Vikas and Raj,
It will be biggest mistake of BJP, if BJP is not going to field Advani. Vikas
has written lot advantages. I am 5000% agree with Vikas. Advani should
fight from Luknow. This activity will increase BJP vote % in UP( it may
go up 1-2% )
February 18, 2009 at 10:16 AM
Dear Arun, Please Check The Post I have already posted before, of Uma Bharti’s Expected Return to BJP
February 18, 2009 at 10:42 AM
Jayaprada an agent of BJP, says Azam Khan, it seems there is Intense Speculation that azam khan would join BSP and contest from here
February 18, 2009 at 10:54 AM
Raj,
U have written about a statement after the MP debacle, can u substantiate it with a E-News article
February 18, 2009 at 11:59 AM
well, This was from IndiaToday by Prabhu Chawla as recently as 30 th Jan 2009.
I have a Problem with my System, and whenever, I send a Link, It goes Blank and the comment Never gets posted.
I simply didnt Bank on some E-News Report.
February 18, 2009 at 12:05 PM
BJP should also actively pursue to bring back Marandi in Jharkhand
February 18, 2009 at 1:02 PM
Yes, They Should.
Though Marandi Ruled out ReJoining BJP, Still Thatz The Best Option for Him and also is Good for BJP
February 18, 2009 at 2:21 PM
Vikas ur comments on the same
http://www.zeenews.com/states/2009-02-18/508226news.html
I think Congress is in a catch 22 situation, it realizes that if it aligns with SP, then it would be able to cut into upper caste votes of BJP, if it does not align then BSP will win all the muslim votes – which would be a very difficult situation for itself and UPA in future. Nice to see Congress and SP loosing on both the accounts..
February 18, 2009 at 2:27 PM
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/bsp-helping-bjp-divide-minority-votes/424811/
detailed analysis of congress loosing in 10 seats given by congress itself…
February 18, 2009 at 2:56 PM
Thanks LKADVANI.IN
The link news confirmed BSP fielding Muslim from one more seat: KANPUR making easy BJP’s fight with Congress there.
February 18, 2009 at 3:04 PM
Who is fighting for BJP from Kanpur
February 18, 2009 at 8:34 PM
Latest from UP, SP in alliance talks with BJP, says Mulayam
http://www.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/18in-alliance-talks-with-bjp-says-mulayam.htm
February 18, 2009 at 8:36 PM
Hi Raj and Vikas,
BJP is sea. All parties will have alliance with BJP or Congress. BJP should fight in
future 50% to 75% seats in each and every states assembly and Loksabha. In that case alliance can not blackmail BJP.
February 18, 2009 at 9:35 PM
It is nice to see Mulayam and Amar running from pole to post, THis election would be BSP Vs BJP in UP. with BSP 35 seats, BJP 30 seats and 15 to congress and SP…
February 19, 2009 at 6:32 AM
Dear AK, This is a Ploy by Amar Singh to help congress and strengthen psuedo secular forces.
NO Way that BJP Would Ally with SP.
February 19, 2009 at 10:51 AM
It is even funny to speak of BJP-SP alliance.
Actually it is going to be BJP-RLD vs. BSP this time in UP, and SP-Cong becoming completely irrelevant as Muslims have deserted it for BSP, in reaction Brahmins & Upper castes are back in BJP, seeing no chances for SP even Yadavs are going for Yadav canddates of BSP or BJP.
February 19, 2009 at 11:19 AM
well said Vikas Ji, SP is known to make such frivulous statements to misleed people. SP-Congress will face rout and with Tripti Sakhya contesting against mulayam(Sakhya’s constitute 50% of voters in Mainpuri),mulayam would face waterloo. also BSP should field a Strong Muslim Candidate against mulayam who would wein away muslim votes from SP for his hobnobbing with Kalyan Singh.
I dont think, Kalyan’s Sorry would be acceptable to maulvis.
February 19, 2009 at 11:27 AM
Advocate Sekhar is a person in lkadvani.in, he is closely following this thread and writing in lkadvani.in
its nice to see how BJP supporters are trying to get each and every material and give to the party, so that the party can do better!!!
February 19, 2009 at 11:32 AM
I have to complement BJP’s campaign managers and their second rung leaders, espically Arun Jaitely, Modi and Swaraj all of them have worked so hard to expand the base of the party in the last five years. The only bad apple is Venkaih Naidu, he is simly benifitting by being a LK Advani loyalist. He has not done any thing useful. He was the BJP president when 2004 elections took place. I cannot forget the way he was seated ( highly deplorable) in the function in which NDTV honoured LKA with life time achievement award.
February 19, 2009 at 11:51 AM
@lkadvani.in
hi,
are you somehow related to the the site of Mr. Advani?
February 19, 2009 at 11:55 AM
There is One more Forum, BharatRakshak, but, I am unable to Register there.
February 19, 2009 at 11:56 AM
NO Chakresh, My name is Arun and i am ardent supporter of BJP and i am trying to promote the good governance agenda of the NDA across the net, I have also promoted the views expressed here in lkadvani.in and vis versa.
Yes i do have some contacts in the party which give me leaks on the impending news.
Chakresh i would advice you to change the equations/ Maths as they are presently, so that we can have a more insightful analysis!!!
February 19, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Dear Chakresh Ji, I dont think He(Arun) is related to the site, but He is Promoting That site here.
BharatRakshak Forum too has Shown lor of Enthusiasm for BJP.
But my Bad Luck, That somehow, my registration Isnt getting complete there.
may be problem with my system
February 19, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Chakresh, i think you can emulate Harsh Vardhan Chhapari.
If have plans to contributing to NDA campaign write to
mallika.noorani@bjp.org
or
rajesh@netcore.co.in
or
anshumangoenka@hotmail.com
or
anupam.trivedi@bjp.org
February 19, 2009 at 12:38 PM
@arun, raj, vikas kumar, ritesh
Please check your e-mail (the one you have given on this blog)
Thank you.
I am planning to organize a “Election prediction hoopla” here on this blog. Thus, inviting all of you to write individual posts for any number of states you want individually as a guest blogger. This will enhance the visibility of your ideas, and we all know how fun is to predict the unpredictability of Indian politics.
February 19, 2009 at 2:33 PM
Chakresh,
Thanks for the offer, well all my prayers and predictions would be tilted towards the NDA. So……..!!!! I good doing what I am doing now!!! Trying to promote lkadvani.in…..
February 19, 2009 at 4:39 PM
Sorry Chakresh!!!!
February 19, 2009 at 7:31 PM
well, I will do my Part Chakresh
February 20, 2009 at 12:03 AM
After going through the all the comments which describes so much in details, I thought of sharing my thought from my home state of Jharkhand.
Here there is no doubt that BJP is the biggest force. BJP has histories of winning 12 out of 14 seats from this state in 1998 and 1999 elections.
But 2004 was disaster, not because BJP performed very badly in terms of Votes, but due to combined opposition and anti-incumbency from both central and state govt, it got only 1 seat won by Babu Lal Marandi who already left BJP and formed his own party JVM. He resigned from the parliament also and got re-elected as an independent candidate.
This election BJP has lost a lot during last few years, but trying to consolidate in last few months by bringing back its leaders who broke away. Still Babu Lal Marandi is the only big soldier who is still out.
BJP is capable of winning upto 10 seats if there is break-up in UPA… which can happen due to the disco on govt foramtion in Jharkhand after by-election loss of Sibu Soren.
Even if UPA come out with proper alliance, atleast 3 seats will be in BJP’s Kitty. These are Ranchi (R T Choudhry), Hazaribagh(Yashwant Sinha) and Chatra(BJP planning to field Inder Singh Namdhari).
If UPA doesn’t come out with alliance then BJP can win Jamshedpur, Singhbhum, Lohardaga and Palamu seats.
There are 4 other seats where alliance doesn’t matter alot, there its the BJP workers efforts which can ensure victory as its always been tough fight. They are Rajmahal, Giridih, Dhanbad and Khunti.
There are 2 seats where BJP looks weak are Dumka & Koderma. In past BJP has managed to win these seats also but in current scenario its looks tough. Dumka is home turf of Sibu Soren and Koderma is of Babu Lal Marandi.
BJP has been traditionally strong in Godda seat, but due to dissident BJP MLA Pradeep Yadav, this seat is going to be tough.
Success mantra for BJP in Jharkhand is united efforts by all the party workers, and learn from mistakes of 2004.
1. Combined effort
2. Alliance of JD(U), they lost 3-4 seats due to JD(U) candidates. they should give Palamu seat to JD(U) as they have a strong candidate Radha Krishna Kishore.
3. Work hard to bring all the BJP voters to polling booth, last time BJP voters didn’t came out to vote and that hurt BJP very badly. Higher the voting percent, it will be advante BJP.
February 20, 2009 at 7:27 AM
Nice Analysis AKS
February 20, 2009 at 10:06 AM
Vikas,
Where are u, u have not been active for the past 2 days??
February 20, 2009 at 11:32 AM
Dear LKADVSANI.IN
I responded to your news item about SP-BJP alliance yesterday.
Well these two days I had written alot on Tamil Nadu in South india section. I also responded to your points specifically there.
February 20, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Vikas,
I ther any chance of RLD going with congress if their alliance with SP does not materialize??
February 20, 2009 at 11:44 AM
there are some indications of RLD talking to congress also as their relation with SP is straining!!!
February 20, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Vikas,
I am getting a sense that BSP wants to finish off SP & Congress and hence is fielding candidate (in constituencies where they cannot win) in favour of the BJP.
Now the new stratergy of SP espically in central UP seems to be to sacrifice themselves and help BJP, so that Maya doesnot win more seats. They want to reduce the power of Maya in the 15th Lok Sabha.
Both BSP and SP are ready to benifit the BJP in their fight, that is what i smell!!
Your comments on the same????
February 20, 2009 at 1:49 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
On the front RLD-BJP alliance & possibility of Cong-RLD alliance as jitters in SP-Cong ties.
I tell u as u hear & read more and more SP-Cong war of words, it means they are moving more close towards seat sharing. It is only a wat of strong bargainining. However for last two days there is cease fire and wrapping up by both sides indicating some final agreement has been rached out. So RLD going with Cong or SP is ruled out and also RLD knows BJP has much more vote base than these two in west UP, where they have stakes.
February 20, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Y is Vinay not fighting from Ayodya, it seems he may get a ticket from AhmedNagar, what is the prospect of the candidate who is put up now in Faizabad (Ayodya).
February 20, 2009 at 2:42 PM
OK! as u were pointing BSP & Sp both helping BJp.
Actually it started during last year July-August trust vote of UPA Govt.
When SP supported Congress, the Cong has to agree for alliance with SP in UP and restrict itself to 15-20 seats. Thus in around 60 seats the voters of national parties have no Congress option, they will go with BJP
.
Due to SP’s alliance with Cong and most of Cong seats lying in West UP (Ghaziabad, Aligarh, Mathura, Gautam Budh nagar, Fatehpur Sikri) and SP won a good seats in West UP last time (Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Sambhal, Amroha, Moradabad, Rampur, Agra); there was hardly any scope left for RLD there,
so RLD moved towards BSP and BSP also took their support for Mayawati’s PM aspirations.
But Mayawati after trust vote becoame volte face and said BSP will contest all the 80 seats in UP and leave no seat for RLD or anyone.
Thus RLD was left alone and Ajit singh also sensed that his Jat farmer vote base will not go with BSP and he also want Mathura seat in seat sharing to make his son Jayant Chaudhary MP this time, Mathura has highest Jat population after Baghpat (Ajit Singh’s seat) and lowest Muslim population in West UP. This seat was last time won by Congress last time with RLD runner up and BJP came fourth here. So he knew Congress will not leave this seat for RLD but BJP can.
Last time Cong alone put a non-Jat candidate Thakur Manvendra Singh in Mathura, Cong got Thakurs and with the help of local MLA Pandit Shyam Sunder Sharma all Brahmins who usually vote against Jat & there was no oither Brahmin candidate, and All Muslims & slum votes; thus he won.
While RLD, BSP & BJP all fielded Jats. Then Jats got divided. RLD got alf of the Jat votes. BJP got quarter of Jat votes and Baniya votes. BSP got Dalits and some portion of Jat votes.
This time Local independent MLA Pt. S. S. Sharma has joined BSP and he is BSP candidate & Thakur Manvendra Singh is Congress candidate. Now Jayant Chaudhary of RLD will consolidate all Jat votes around 1/3 of total. alliance with BJP will deliver most Baniya votes and some Miscellaneous communities (around 15-20%). Thus ensures his comfortable victory.
All these overall factors and one very important personal factor dragged Ajit Singh’s RLD to BJP side. this alliance will deliver Jat-farmer votes.
Ajit Singh’s entry into BJP camp irked Kalyan Singh, who saw him as a challenge in West UP. So he became disturbing and look for new option.
Amar singh sensing opportunity to coner Lodh votes bring him closer to Mulayam Singh and made his son Rajveer Singh join SP and become National Secratary of SP and ensure candidature for him & support for his father Kalyan Singh.
Mulayam cosiness with Kalyan and his son joining SP saw a sharp reaction among Muslims in West UP. The Muslim SP leaders denied tickets Shahid Akhlaque (Meerut), Salim Iqbal Sherwani (Badaun), Shafiq-ur-Rahman Barq (Sambhal Moradabad), & later Md. Azam Khan (Rampur) grabbed the issue to spread rebellion fire among Muslims against SP. the continuoous opposition of Kalyan Singh by Muslims & Congress to the extent of insult & sorry staements by him, will make Lodhs not to vote for SP-Cong and may remain with BJP if it brings youth Lodhs & Uma Bharti.
Smelling an opportunity to get Muslim votes Mayawati extended an olive branch to BSP. She announced to give 25% tickets to Muslims and gave tickets to Muslim leaders of SP like Ansari Mukhtar & Afzal, Atiq Ahmad (in eastern UP- Allahabnad, Varanasi region), Dr. Shafiq Barq and now trying to rope in Md. Azam Khan. these Muslim leaders are not of liberal image rather they have strong anti-Hindu, criminal, don images.
This had strong reaction among Hindus & Brahmins-Thakurs specially and they are now deserting BSP for BJP.
February 20, 2009 at 3:42 PM
Rajesh tikait’s name is almost final for Bijnour seats as BJP candidate.Although the names of bjp mla bhartendu and nagar palika chairman kapil dev aggarwal name are also sent bt Rajesh is final. It would generate a wave in BJP+ RLD candidates,bcoz mahender singh tikait is famous for his sway over kisans in western UP through his BKU.So UPA is routed in this area.Main fight with BSP with upper hand of NDA.Thakur,bania, jats,tyagi,punjabi,kurmis are going to Flood NDA with votes
This was a BJP well-wiser has written, Vikas throw some light???
I wish i had some more knowledge on UP politics!!!
February 20, 2009 at 5:19 PM
Definitely it will further strengthen NDA here.
Tikait support with bring support of peasentry classes in rural areas.
BJP is strong in urban areas, even in last assembly elections it won most of the urban seats or got high votes in West UP – Rohilkhand.
Actually in UP or elsewhere in India most of the LS seats are not completely urban or urban.
Generally any LS seat is like an atom with urban nucleus and rural shells. The % of rural & urban may vary.
So this alliance will be supplementary in nature and winnable.
February 20, 2009 at 6:35 PM
Thanks to Chakresh for This site and Vikas Ji for taking time to give a detailed analysis, I am getting to know more about Sociological and Geographical Distribution of UP Politics.
February 21, 2009 at 10:31 AM
Dear all plz. go thru the following link:
http://www.hindu.com/2009/02/21/stories/2009022158270300.htm
what I wrote yesterday
“I tell u as u hear & read more and more SP-Cong war of words, it means they are moving more close towards seat sharing. It is only a wat of strong bargainining. However for last two days there is cease fire and wrapping up by both sides indicating some final agreement has been rached out. So RLD going with Cong or SP is ruled out and also RLD knows BJP has much more vote base than these two in west UP, where they have stakes.”
it simply confirms that
February 22, 2009 at 12:38 AM
Hi Arun,
Can u please provide your view on CNN-IBN news
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/upa-ahead-but-no-one-is-winning-2009-elections/85995-37.html
I hope that NDA should come to power but this analysis put brake on NDA chances..
I think NDA has to put more effort to get around majority..
February 22, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Dear AWN,
This analysis is highly flawed. To give you an example,
1> Sample size for bihar is just 1000 ppl . On top of it says Nitish Kumar Govt is highly popular with 85% approval, but NDA & UPA (w/o LJP) is neck & neck.
2> In Gujarat the survey shows 2% vote diff between BJP and Congress, when even a dumb person knows the Modi wave has swept it.
3> In UP again with sample size of just 1500 it shows SP & BSP with 25% each and BJP 19% & Congress 17%. If SP was 25%, it wouldn’t be desperate to have a tie up with Congress. Congress don’t have any base except in few seats in UP.
4> In Maharasatra , where even a kid now the coalation govt of NCP-Congress has not performed in last 10 yrs, the polls says NCP-Congress will get 50% votes. (That is a joke)
BJP on its own will land between 165-190. NDA will definitely cross 220 , can go over 240+ , if they can stitch alliance in TN & AP.
February 22, 2009 at 3:43 AM
Thanks AK for your analysis…
Just more news to add to this forum is that its seems that LJP , RJD and Congress have agreed for seat sharing..
Congress : 5
LJP :13
RJD: 22
In Bihar NDA needs to increase its tally from 2004 election, its it has to move near to majority.
February 22, 2009 at 9:35 AM
Hi,
NDA
180(India -(AP+Kerala+WB+TN) + 10-20(AP+Kerala+WB+TN) + 60(NDA partner) = 250-260
Powerfull Conditions
—————————-
1.BJP will have to work hard.
2.No inner fighiting in BJP
3. No need of alliances in AP,TN,WB,Kerala
For Congres
—————–
1.Congress will perform in Kerala only.
2. It will get major loss in many states.
3. In some states congress will get little bit gain( MP,Rajasthan etc.)
February 22, 2009 at 9:37 AM
Hi,
BJP
180(India -(AP+Kerala+WB+TN) + 10-20(AP+Kerala+WB+TN) + 60(BJP partners) = 250-260
Powerfull Conditions
—————————-
1.BJP will have to work hard.
2.No inner fighiting in BJP
3. No need of alliances in AP,TN,WB,Kerala
For Congres
—————–
1.Congress will perform in Kerala only.
2. It will get major loss in many states.
3. In some states congress will get little bit gain( MP,Rajasthan etc.)
February 22, 2009 at 10:54 AM
Dear Awn, cnn is congress news network.
dont believe it.
They are trying their best to project that NDA Cant form ne=xt government.
they will have to eat the humble pie
February 22, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Hi,
CNN IBN is servent of Sonia Gandhi.
February 22, 2009 at 12:52 PM
Hi Raj,
Shekhawat lost president election. We were knowing very well, he can not win election at any cost. After that BJP fielded own candidate. It was not
insult of Shekhawat. But BJP was reflecting other pole of politics(one pole is congress). That BJP should always eflect other pole in each and every
part of politics. One day this pole will become strong.
In Kerala BJP is not able to win any seat. But one day BJP will get
25% to 50% seats in Kerala. BJP is having good base in Kerala. It is
matter of time for BJP to get good issueI(like Telangana issue) which will provide BJP to good no. of seats in Kerala. But good base is important.
February 22, 2009 at 4:20 PM
Hi Raj,
One thing is noticeable in CNN-IBN survey is that UPA vote share started to decerease from 2007 something we can sense that similiar phenomenon happened when NDA was in power, its popularity started to decrease. Even then it was projected as majority power 4 months before the election. Ultimately things was just opposite.
I think its time also we have similar situation.
February 23, 2009 at 9:51 AM
Hi Guys,
I was out of town for 2 days, here is my view on CNN IBN survey.
First of all, it seems that BJP is going with RLD, this is what i sense from what Arun Jaitley said on CNN IBN, one good indication is Jharkhand where Jaitley is given enough indications that either Marandi is coming with BJP or aligning.
Coming to the survey at large, the survey seems to indication all the recent BJP bastions as grey areas, which is pro-congress. State by state my opinion on the grey areas they mentioned.
Haryana: INLD-BJP combine when in alliance last time got 57% vote share, now they are back in alliance even if they get 45+% share, they ll win all the seats, secondly Bajanlal is also causing problems for congress with his new party, even if he wins 2% vote, it will from congress vote share.
HP: Dumal popularity here is sky rocketing and all the candidates for BJP here are announced, whereas there is so much infighting in Congress that they are not able to announce a candidate, so putting this state in grey( yellow as in IBN map) is unwarranted.
Bihar: 39% each for NDA and UPA and 5% for LJP is what they have given, i am sure tat LJP will not settle less than 12 seats inside UPA what causes from is that RJD would be able to transfer only muslim votes in these areas and yadav vote in this case goes to NDA. on the other hand when RJD and JD(U) fight this time YADAV vote will be split and will not go completely to RJD, JD(u) will put only YADAV candidates because they know Kurmi and other OBCs this time will vote for NDA. so this tight race as indicated by IBN is bullshit.
UP: enough has been said by vikas
Jharkhand: If Marandi doesnot comes inot BJP/ NDA fold, i donot see NDA winning more than 7-8 seats, it is very very critical.
TN: alliance with congress- ADMK will never materialise because of the clout PC and Vasan enjoy in Delhi, all the media from IBN to TOI to Rediff are trying to put news that Congress is moving close to ADMK becuase that is their wish and far from reality, i agree to media on one thing that DMK is in a very very bad shape thanks to Karuna son, Alagiri. ADMK will be a post poll ally along with MDMK and PMK in the NDA.
WB: TMC will ultimately go with congress, but yesterday only Pranab goes and share dias with Buddha and laments Mamtha, Pranab realises if they are close to the target, they need left in the next govt and hence doesnot want to alienate them, where as Mamtha is behind congress for the muslim vote they would bring in. So it is a raw deal here.
Maha: the vote share Cong- NCP has in the sugar belt is something NDA cannot imagine to cut into in the next elections. the margin with which UPA will win here is going to be in lakhs and not thousands, infact BJP was last surprised when they won the solapur seat here. This time also they can win this seat only in the sugar belt. there is a large population of lingayat vote bank here which was split last time, but ll go with BJP this time ( shivaraj patil is a lingayat, congress sidelining him alone for the attacks ahs not gone down well with the communtiy). North Maha and Mumabi has huge population of Gujus which traditionally goes to UPA( because of Deora and Praful Patel) because SS strong pro-marathi stand doenot go well with them. With MODI becoming incharge, he will completely bring those votes to BJP.
February 23, 2009 at 10:28 AM
Do give some benefit of doubt to IBN also, they have tried to play safe. They wanted to give an edge to UPA, at the same time theya have not ruled out NDA. For instance in AP when the survey was doen the Satyam saga was unfolding, TRS- TDP alliance did not happen. PRP had not campaigned in Rayalseem region. TDP and PRP in the last one month has suceeded to create anit-incumbency in pockets. So we cannot completely brush aside the IBN survey as biased.
February 23, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Three important points the analysts did not touch upon in the survey where:
1) Vote transferability: For instance BJP will be able to transfer its vote share to the JD (U) in Bihar, but the RJD will not be able to transfer its entire vote to LJP. INLD and BJP can mutually transfer their vote shares in Harayana.
2) Spread of Vote share: Sharad Pawar will win Baramathi with a margin of 2 lakth votes but NDA will win 10 seats with a margin fo 30,000 votes. The Vote of NDA is concentrated and not spread like the UPA, the classic example is Karnataka, the BJP here will do extremely well in the state but will turn a cropper in the old mysore region.
3) Candidate: The NDA has a history of put better candidates than the UPA. Think of a Tipnis / Kiran Bedi fighting from Delhi, they will win despite the voters having an affiliation to Sheila Dixit.
February 23, 2009 at 11:18 AM
The biggest comedy in the IBN survey was in the seat calculation they have given 12 seats to congress in Gujarat. The blogger in their site has tried hard to sell this assessment as true. I cannot resist laughing at the same.
February 23, 2009 at 1:41 PM
Congress ka Haanth – Aam aadmi ke saath fraud
—————————————————————————————————–
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/UPAs-aam-aadmi-bill-may-be-inflated-CAG/articleshow/4172282.cms
February 23, 2009 at 1:42 PM
well Said Arun.
This time around, congress would Struggle to get 2 seats in Gujarat.
ibn is a Donkey Channel and is conducting A Monkey Poll
February 23, 2009 at 1:43 PM
BJP Should Romp in Dr. Kiran Bedi. I wish she is fielded against Kapil Sibal, though kapil sibal Doesnt deserve such a high profile candidate frm BJP.
February 23, 2009 at 1:44 PM
well said AKS
February 23, 2009 at 1:45 PM
Raj,
i wanted u to read the assessment on the states of HARAYANA, HP, Bihar
February 23, 2009 at 2:09 PM
Hey,
Rahul BABAs friends are leaving him…
http://www.zeenews.com/states/2009-02-23/509759news.html
February 23, 2009 at 2:54 PM
Thatz Great.
since, it is Not possible to educate the illiterate masses in Amethi and Rae Bareily to vote against raul vinci and sonia maino respectively. BJP Should Weaken congress in their other strongholds.
February 23, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Bihar: this time Yadavs will vote for NDA, becuase LJP is contesting more seats!!!
February 23, 2009 at 4:19 PM
Hi ….
Why are so worried abt the caste factors atleast in bihar its not the same right now as it is used to be and rigid caste structure due to Mandal agitation has taken back seat long back and has changed to flexible caste structure by the reverse social engineering done in Bihar
during the NDA regime over period of 2 and half years the caste system has substantially relegated and now the development has became the talk of the day in every nook and corner of Bihar .
Here is list of things done by NDA regime over there :
OBC has been divided in to two part OBC & EBC( Extremely Backward Caste) and in all local bodies like ( Panchayat, Pramukh , Panchayat Samit, Ward ) have been reserved for these EBC by the Nitish Govt. and thereby cleverly he has been able take away large chunk of so called Lalu Vote banks and they have now become Nitish Vote Bank. Except Yadav(10%) who by and large will vote for Lalu and 40 -50% of the state Population is of these EBC coupled 80 %( of 15 to 20% of the state population of the forward caste) will go to NDA kitty and more ever in bihar as said earlier caste is not so solidly behind any combination and what matters now more over there is development works done by Nitish like basic infrastructure i.e. .Roads, Education , Law &Order ( all criminals behind the bars) ,basic health have improved substantially.
Also the image of Bihar under the Nitish regime has been changed across the India as he B. Tech and very honest when you compare the Laloo & Rabri and Congress corrupt regime.
They have really reaped the Bihar during the last 20 Yrs of rule .
Nitish has taken the initiative to revive the old Nalanda University the old Glory of Bihar .
He has done lot of work despite non co-operation by central regime at the instance of Laloo as they have not yet relesed the Bihar relief fund of Rs.14000 Crore.
Don’t worry I promise Bihar will return at least 35 MPs for NDA this time round “Vikash Yatra ” has been huge success and in response to that Nitish is travelling in villages and holding Cabinet meeting and listening to problems of the people in the presence of the senior Officers.
February 23, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Thanks Anil, its nice to hear ur views.
I was bit upset with IBN which said that Yadavs are still with RJD and then one of the NDA leaders told me that the same would be countered using Candidate selection.
Anyway, if Bihar returns 30 MPs for NDA it would be a great achievement!!!
February 23, 2009 at 4:53 PM
Vikas,
Ur comments on the prospects of BJP in Mohanlalganj (SC).
http://www.zeenews.com/states/2009-02-23/509759news.html
this gives some insight on the candidate
February 23, 2009 at 4:56 PM
Hi
These IBN surveys deserve no better place than Thrash Can /Dust Bin.
I know Bihar better than these so called Psephologist and Politician and you just see the arrogance of Laloo yadav. Its becoz., he knows it very well this time round he will out of Centre and Bihar both and will not find a shelter/roof over head to hide for the misdeeds and raping of Bihar completely for 20 yrs in names of so called social justice which has helped his families and relatives but none.
He will test the true taste of democracy this time round as there will not the state administration to support his misdeeds and mis use of power to Grab the power by hook or crook or whatever means it come.
My real worry is that this so called secular party will divert the attention of common people from the miss rule of UPA by fomenting the communal violence/riots by hiring miscreant, which will ultimately harm the prospect of the NDA.
As UPA has failed miserably on all fronts be it high interest rates, price rise, Fiscal deficit (13.5 % of GDP), national security and infrastructures project.
February 23, 2009 at 4:58 PM
Hope your worry does not become true
February 23, 2009 at 7:21 PM
Wonderful Analysis Anil Bhai
February 24, 2009 at 6:41 AM
RLD-BJP tie up complete. RLD to contest 7 seats, and BJP 73
http://www.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/24up-bjp-completes-seat-sharing-pact-with-rld.htm
Does anyone know how critical will RLD vote be for BJP ?
February 24, 2009 at 7:51 AM
BJP manifesto likely to include river-linking, MP scheme on girl child
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/BJP-manifesto-likely-to-include-river-linking-MP-scheme-on-girl-child/articleshow/4179137.cms
Snippet from article
“BJP is also using suggestions coming in through the internet to formulate its manifesto. Some of them are also being used by the party to formulate its policies on various issues. A large number of suggestions on Uttar Pradesh, for instance, have been handed over to party general secretary Arun Jaitley dealing with campaign and electioneering in the state. ”
This shows the dynamic/progressive/nationalist nature of BJP. Guys, should summarize your suggestions and send it across online at their website.
February 24, 2009 at 8:06 AM
Dear AK, Only Vikas Ji can Throw some light on How Good RLD would be for BJP
February 24, 2009 at 10:19 AM
VikasJi where are u?
Please give us the prospect of Ranjan Kumar in the Mohanlalganj seat.
February 24, 2009 at 4:23 PM
Dear All
Sorry! I could not respond you these 2-3 days as there was some problem in internet linkage at my place.
Well!
Dear lkadvani.in
about Mohanlalganj seat.
BJP can definitely win this seat iff Advaniji contests from Lucknow, a major portion of this semi-urban seat lies in Lucknow district and it engulfs Lucknow seat from 3 sides.
It is a SC reserved seat and Ranjan is a Pasi, which have a considerable presence here. Jatavs largest no. among SCs will vote for BSP only, so for BJP it is better not to field Jatav and get max. possible SC votes by fielding second largest SC community candidate.
Moreover Ranjan is a youth IIM Lucknow educated professional outlook person who can also attract Upper middle caste votes of BJP as well.
But this possibility to become reality, I am repeatedly saying iff Advaniji contests from Lucknow. Actually Lucknow lies in exactly centre ofUP, it is in Central UP BJP is most weak whereas it is powerful in West, Poorvanchal, Ruhelkhand comparatively. While in Central UP BJP is weak but in LKO seat it is traditionally strong. So, if Advaniji contests from safe seat LKO as PM candidate in weak Central UP, it will help party to regain strength here.
February 24, 2009 at 4:40 PM
VikasJi,
Do u have the breakup of the caste population in Bihar.
I heard that
33% EBCs, 12% OCs will support NDA for sure.
20% muslims 18% dalits and 7% (of 10%) yadavs will support UPA.
remaining is in undecided voters category.
Do u have any info or analysis in particular of Bihar and Jharkhand
February 24, 2009 at 4:47 PM
This article was the source of my data
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Will+Bihar+vote+for+Nitish?&artid=GD|idleD4qY=&SectionID=d16Fdk4iJhE=&MainSectionID=d16Fdk4iJhE=&SEO=Nitish+Kumar,+Bihar,+Lalu,+BJP,+Advani,+Congress&SectionName=aVlZZy44Xq0bJKAA84nwcg==
February 24, 2009 at 4:51 PM
I am Sure a Large portion of EBCs will Vote for NDA in Bihar.
February 24, 2009 at 4:56 PM
LKADVANI.IN,
In bihar muslims are only 16.5% not 20%,
Murali
February 24, 2009 at 4:58 PM
yes that what is written in the article and in anil’s analysis!!!
In the post so far we have not done extensive discussion on Bihar and Jharkhand!!!
I think Anil can also throw some light on the constituencies of Bihar
February 24, 2009 at 5:00 PM
Y then everyone are so desperate about their votes be it JD(U) or RJD, is it becuase they are the only section that will vote 100%
February 24, 2009 at 5:26 PM
well
I had gone thru the CNN-IBN opinion poll exercise.
i donot disagree with this poll.
But, I take this poll conducted in Feb middle, when most of the alliances had not taken shape properly, 2/3 candidates are not announced, rebels may crop up, campaigning not started, etc.
today (Feb. mid) they reported
UPA ahead of NDA : UPA 225 (215-235) NDA 175 (165-185)
after all alliances settle, seat sharing, candidates announced:
I expect by March end they will say,
NDA & UPA will be at par with 200 seats both.
After campaigning, issues, potential rebels and local dynamics in play:
In April, I think NDA will be suging ahead (but it will not de revealed as all opinion polls will be banned then).
So it will not cause media hoopla and actually work at local level decisively. Then I expect
NDA 225 and UPA 175
After polling in exit polls, these surveys will report like
Hung house but NDA ahead of UPA and project seats like
NDA 225-250 UPA150-175
But when actual result will come, believe me it will be no hung houe with
NDA 275 UPA+Left 175
This is exactly what happened in 2004, but that time NDA was in the role of todays UPA+ Left and vice versa.
actually, by and large it is no wrong.
The election system is process in which tere is vote flow from one side to another as alliance settles, candidates, announces, campaigns takes up, issues hots ups, rebels come, local dynamics plays, voting progresses and so on.
February 24, 2009 at 6:40 PM
But, Vikas Ji, it is equally true that they are openly suggesting JD(S)-Congress Alliance in Karnataka.
Asking Questions like, Why They arent Romping in NDA Partners to UP Camp and stuff like that.
It is completely Biased.
CNN-IBN is Bribed by sonia maino.
while commies will lose heavily in Kerala, congress is in NO POSITION OF wINNING aLL 20 Seats in Kerala, similarly, in Bengal, their projection of congress-trinamool sweep is ludicrous.
Ibn’s aim is to Demoralize BJP’s Support Who are also the regular viewers of English Media, Thus, their aim is by disheartening us, BJP would lose elections.
February 24, 2009 at 7:35 PM
Dear Raj
Every election is a rigorously fought exercise.
Being complaecent with the favouable opinion polls is the most stupid thing a party or its supporters can afford.
Of course it is activity of hard work deep analysis, working tactics.
U can never forget how BJP LOST MISERABLY in Delhi in Dec., when it was projected to get as high as 50 seats in Aug-Sep before candidates were chosen and campaigning kick off.
There are past figures, support base, previous election data all that is fine.
But the biggest truth is every election is a new which has to be taken in complete fresh manner.
I do agree these CNN-IBN people are utterly biased and had always proved mockery after results. But even then they are not able to project UPA with majority. Only 235 max.they could reach after doing a lot of funny calculation blunders. NDA supporters should not be at all disheartened, they should cherish even this totally Congress biased punter channel accepts NDA is in close fight. And if NDA supporters are so weak then they should forget about any change.
I tell u the best situation for a party is when it is said it is the front runner and there is going to be hung house. then its supporters and fluid voters put out all efforts to ensure success of their party and ensure clear mandate. a prediction of clear mandate rather makes the workers & supportes of a party lazy and over confident, which is very dangerous.
February 25, 2009 at 5:58 AM
I am sure, congress will go down below 100.
February 25, 2009 at 1:44 PM
All ,
Please tell me how BSP’s Brahmin candidates will impact the BJP & Congress vote bank in U.P. As Pt. Satish Mishra is luring Brahmins to vote for BSP and also distributing tickets to Ex Congress and EX BJP Brahmin leaders.
How BJP will counteract this. I am worried that Ex Brahmin of BJP (Now part of BSP) having good hold on RSS and other Brahmin opinion leaders may give a big dent to BJP in U.P.
February 25, 2009 at 1:50 PM
VIVS:
RSS will surely not support them, even though they are EX-BJP.
Bringing back Brahmin votes depends on the kind of campaign. BJP should carry out the campaign that any Hindu joining BSP(only muslim league) is like committing a sin that cannot be washed in Ganges.
February 26, 2009 at 10:37 AM
Vikasji,
Can u throw some light on Constituencies in and around Lucknow, in central UP. That would help to better project the candidature of Advaniji from Lucknow!!!
February 26, 2009 at 10:54 AM
It is advantage NDA in LS polls,
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=It+is+advantage+NDA+in+LS+polls&artid=ei1egQX72Xk=&SectionID=b7ziAYMenjw=&MainSectionID=b7ziAYMenjw=&SectionName=pWehHe7IsSU=&SEO=Lok%20Sabha%20polls
February 26, 2009 at 11:02 AM
G8 article AK!!!
February 26, 2009 at 11:04 AM
In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik is Still going Strong!!!
February 26, 2009 at 11:05 AM
Dear Arun,
I have given my suggestions in West India forum. Please have a look and share it with Shri Arun Jaitley ji, if possible.
February 26, 2009 at 11:10 AM
I have seen it, i definitely take the same to him.
February 26, 2009 at 9:52 PM
Any comments on this article
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/001200902231990.htm
February 27, 2009 at 12:39 AM
Congress-SP alliance may not back Mayavati.
Left & thrid front will not have enough strength.
That leaves only possiblity of BJP backing her, which might happen if NDA falls short of majority and no one backs them. But it will remain an unstable government.
Second, any regional leader who comes to Delhi looses back home,
e.g. Lalu, Mullayam, Shibu Soren, Deve Gouda etc. I actually want her to come to LS , it might prove the final blow to knock her out.
February 27, 2009 at 8:42 AM
well said AK.
Dear AKS, These Pollsters are Clowns and Baffoons. They cant even be called Jokers.
I have lost total respect for them.
February 27, 2009 at 10:01 AM
How Anti-BJP, NDTV is!!! They are trying desparate to break NDA into pieces, atleast in the media!!!
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20090084969&ch=2/27/2009%209:12:00%20AM
February 27, 2009 at 10:04 AM
Bad news:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Lucknow/BJP_rebel_gets_BSP_ticket_from_Kanpur/articleshow/4198111.cms
Kanpur is having a Brahmin Candidate
February 27, 2009 at 10:11 AM
Dear Arun, NDTV and IBN will do anything to Create The Impression that BJP is Weak and it has NO Alliance Partners.
Never Trust them and gget Disheartened.
The Funniest Part was, when they said : BJP-SS Alliance is on the wedge of breaking up.
2 days back, the headline was : Thackrey Refuses to Meet Advani(Indicates, NCP-SS-Congress Alliance)
The Very Next Day,Saamna Ridiculed The Mainstream Press and caaled it Fictious.
February 27, 2009 at 10:15 AM
But kanpur news is disturbing!!!!
February 27, 2009 at 10:23 AM
http://ibnlive.in.com/blogs/jajatikaran/19/53211/pyari–naveen.html
Another IBN article, which is Pro-congress
February 27, 2009 at 10:50 AM
Dear Arun, This congress news network has a sinister campaign. They will have to openly hang their head in shame as the results pour in.
February 27, 2009 at 11:20 AM
Hi,
It is difficult for BJP to win
kanpur seat this time. Because Muslim votes will
go with congress. Congress will win this seat.
February 27, 2009 at 12:03 PM
I dont think, BJP would purely Bank on Splitting of Votes.
Splitting of Votes would Help BJP, but That alone cant be Banked for BJP’s Success in UP or elsewhere for that Matter.
February 27, 2009 at 1:01 PM
Dear Collegue,
If BJP & NDA want to become all India Party then it will have adopt the pro development approach and these castiest party like SP , BSP , RJD, ADNK, TDP, MDMK, PMK PRP will survive for long as the taste of people is now changing and votors are now becoming more demanding.
Look at Narndra Modi, Navin Patnaik, Nitish , Raman Singh, Shivraj and other BJP govt , where caste has been relegated and development has come to the fore.
With more educated votors & pro incumbancy voting pattern , the days of castiest parties will vanish and all pro development and pro commom man govt. will prosper and survive for long .
Lets see what is going to happen and no need to worry abt Mayawati Umbrealla caste consortia they will bite the dust in the long run.
February 27, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Hi Anil,
Ultimate developement is every thing. To win the election there is need of
lot of things. I am very happy BJP leaders are more towards developement side.
February 27, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Guys,
Today 4 Pm there is a chat with Uma Bharathi in IBN, if possible do log in!!!
February 27, 2009 at 3:15 PM
Dear Friends,
Do you all trust her ability as good administrator and she is totally unreliable like her counter part in Indian Polity like JAYA,MAYA & MAMTA .
Thanks she is not in BJP right now and BJP has taken a right decesion in elevating ShivRaj as CM of MP in her Place otherwise BJP would have lost MP badly in Assembly election.
She is good in evoking whims and raising emoltive issues but when it come to performamces as good administrator she is total failure.
All you know now people require more matured and balanced person as their leaders and not the the mere crowd puller and failed when it come to delivery in term good administration.
February 27, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Hi Friends,
This Arun again try to promote friendsofbjp.org, the site is to officially launch tomorrow, to come and participate.
By the way, good news from Bihar, revolt in LJP over alliance with RJD. Good news in seeing the UPA becoming week
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/paswan-faces-revolt-on-lalu/428690/
February 27, 2009 at 3:46 PM
typographical apologies
Hi Friends,
This Arun again try to promote friendsofbjp.org, the site is to officially launch tomorrow, do come and participate.
By the way, good news from Bihar,there is revolt in LJP over alliance with RJD. It is g8 to see UPA becoming weak
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/paswan-faces-revolt-on-lalu/428690/
February 27, 2009 at 4:29 PM
Development is A Lot but at the same time, BJP should Not let factionalism in The Party. In Rajasthan for Instance, Past 5 years saw Huge and unforeseen Development under Raje, but, infighting led to loss of Power.
February 27, 2009 at 4:31 PM
Dear Arun, Yet, The Biased Media will project like UPA would form the next government and that raul vinci will be the PM.
February 27, 2009 at 4:42 PM
My Gut feeling at the moment is
STATE NDA UPA othr Total
AP 03 18 21 42
Arunachal 01 01 02
Assam 09 04 01 14
Bihar& Jh 35 19 54
Delhi 04 03 07
Goa 01 01 02
Gujarat 20 06 26
Haryana 08 02 10
Himchal 03 01 04
J &K 01 03 02 06
Karnataka 18 07 03 28
Kerala 14 06 20
MP & Cha 33 07 40
Mahahtra 28 20 48
Manipur 01 02
Meghalaya 01 01 02
Mizoram 01 01
Nagaland 01 01
Orissa 17 04 21
Punjab 08 04 01 13
Rajasthan 13 12 25
Sikkim 01 01
TN 00 18 22 40
Tirupura 02 02
UP+Ucand 27 20 40 85
WB 01 15 26 42
Total 232 181 126 539
February 27, 2009 at 5:18 PM
Hi All,
News has been flashed Lalji Tondon will going to contest from Lucknow seat.
Any one of us an idea what will be chances for him.
February 27, 2009 at 5:36 PM
No so g8 news,
I will definitely tell to Jaitelyji tomorrow!!!
http://www.samaylive.com/news/bjp-fields-lalji-tandon-opposite-sanjay-dutt/611296.html
February 27, 2009 at 6:23 PM
Hi,
I am not happy. Advani should fight from Lucknow.
February 27, 2009 at 11:03 PM
For all those who are speculating SS-NCP tie-up
http://www.samaylive.com/news/bjp-shiv-sena-to-discuss-seatsharing-next-week/611396.html
February 28, 2009 at 12:07 AM
Well,it must be A Calculated Move.
Certainly, Advani Ji contesting from Lucknow Would Have Boosted BJP’s Chances A Lot not just in Lucknow but also in the near by region.
But, my Choice was Sri Lalji Tandon.
Lal Ji Tandon as CM of UP would have certainly Led to Factionalism within UP BJP. But, Him moving to Lok Sabha Wont cause Much Harm. Further, He has been The Poll Manager of Atalji since ’91. He knows Every Nuke and Corner of Lucknow.
February 28, 2009 at 12:09 AM
Further Sanjay Dutt can be Cornered as an OutSider.
Again Advani Ji coming to Lucknow would be seen as A Morale Booster of SP-Congress which has fielded Sanjay Dutt who already started campaigning.
This would be seen in Press as BJP being scared of Sanjay Dutt’s Popularity and has hence brought in Advani Ji.
I am Sure. Lalji Tandon would Win This Seat for BJP
February 28, 2009 at 12:10 AM
Dear AKS, Except for Communal News Network-IslamoChurchists Broadcasters News and Never Deliver True Version, None else is Speculating SS-NCP Alliance.
February 28, 2009 at 3:42 AM
Dear All,
Good to see finally the FriendsOfBjp http://friendsofbjp.org/about/
site. Some very impressive people have started this.
February 28, 2009 at 8:09 AM
How to Register? Please send me the link for registration
February 28, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Dear Friends,
It is that a good move by BJP as Lalji Tandon is Brahmin condidate and Lucknow has huge Brahmnin Population and as representative of Atal Ji he has been serving this constituencies even at the time when Atal ji as PM & MP .
He was the best available choice and you will surprise to see that he wins the election with Atal Ji Blessing and Atal Ji written and visual appeal will work in his favour and he is also the Atal ji choice .
February 28, 2009 at 11:05 AM
In 2004 elections Congress got 8.5% votes. So if Congress goes with SP, do you think its entire vote will get transferred to SP ?
I have a feeling some of it might get transferred to BJP especially where Congress is not contesting.
February 28, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Nope.
Congress in 2004 got Upper Caste Votes. With Congress alligning with SP, upper castes have 2 choices : BJP/BSP
however, with BSP giving tickets to Anti-Hindu Criminal Muslims, Upper Castes will move over to BJP
February 28, 2009 at 8:44 PM
Raj Bhaiyya,
Aap ke moo mein ghee chakkar, i got this news
http://www.indopia.in/India-usa-uk-news/latest-news/513369/National/1/20/1
Brahmins boycott BSP rally.
is baar BJP ulti waat lagayegi BSP, SP aur cong ko UP mein.
Jai Bhajpa
Jai Hind
March 1, 2009 at 1:07 AM
That is gr8 news. I think the brahmin and upper caste vote, which BSP got was a negative bote against SP for the UP state, where Mulla yam was discriminating against them.
However, national election is totally different. With Congres joining SP, this votebase and even much of congress votebase will move to BJP.
BJP which had 18.5 % vote share in 2007 vote,
will gain 5-6 % Brahmin / Upper caste vote from BSP,
will gain 2-3 % Brahmin / Upper caste vote from Congress (8.5 % in 2004)
will have gain 3.5 % of Jatt votes (conc in west UP) from RLD (3.5 % in 2007 assembly election)
will gain 1-2 % others (Against Terrorism)
In total BJP-RLD alliance will have 30 -32% vote , conservatively.
BSP will end up 30%(2007 assembly) – 4-5 % (Brahmin vote) + 5% Muslim vote = 30 – 32% vote
SP will have 26% (2007 assembly) – 5 % (Muslims) + 4-5 % (Congress) = 25 – 26%
With RLD alliance, BJP will be strongest in Western UP, direct fight between BJP & BSP in eastern UP. SP might have its say in Bundelkhand.
I think outcome will be close to this,
BSP – 31
BJP-RLD – 27
SP-Congress – 22
March 1, 2009 at 12:53 PM
Thank you Murali Ji
I was anticipating it
March 1, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Hi,
Tandon ji is brahmin, that i was not knowing. Now he will win from Lucknow.
March 1, 2009 at 5:06 PM
Hi,
Kalraj mishra may fight from Kanpur. Talk is going on.
March 1, 2009 at 5:34 PM
Hello
Please send this link to some BJP leaders.
Look below Rahul’s IQ (he is dumber than George W Bush)….
http://deshgujarat.com/2009/02/26/shocking-state-of-rahul-gandhis-general-knowledgevideo/
Recently Rahul baba while interacting with professionals in Ahmedabad’s Bhaikaka hall said that “Gujarat is bigger than the United Kingdom.” The Congress men gathered there started clapping but the fact is that Gujarat’s geographical area is 196024 sq km while the United Kindom possesses 245,000 square kilometers area, much bigger than Gujarat.
And Rahul Baba in the same interaction said that “India is bigger than the United States and Europe put together”. But the fact is that India(3,287,263sq. km) is not bigger either United States(9,631,418 km² sq. km )or Europe(1crore 20 lakh ) alone, forget put together.
March 1, 2009 at 10:10 PM
The SP-congress is not an alliance, it is an seat agreement,
>>Congress is demanding that it be given 18 seats and 5 more seats where it can have a friendly fight with the SP in a total 80
>> “We don’t have friendship, we have an agreement. If there had been friendship, it would have been sorted out” – Mulla yam
Clearly, there votes won’t add up, and I think they won’t do a joint campaign either. The lesser seats congress fights election the better it is for BJP (the only other national party). I think congress will not fight more than 20 seats.
Also, only 46 % of electorate cast its vote in 2007 assembly elections. 14.5 % of electorate voted for Non-National, Non-Regional Parties.
In 2004 Lok Sabha elections only 48% of electorate voted in UP, where as in 1999 it was much higher 53%, when BJP gained the most.
The success of BJP will depend on motivating people to come out and exercise their franchise. With more than 15% first time voters, if more than 55% of electorate comes out and vote, and if BJP is able to make a dent in “Others” vote, it has good chances of increasing taken its numbers to 35+ seats.
March 1, 2009 at 10:37 PM
Going by current trends the 2009 Lok Sabha results may be as follows.
STATE NDA UPA Othr Total
AP 03 18 21 42
Arunachal 01 01 00 02
Assam 08 05 01 14
Bihar& Jh 32 20 02 54
Delhi 05 02 00 07
Goa 01 01 00 02
Gujarat 22 04 00 26
Haryana 06 04 00 10
Himchal 03 01 00 04
J &K 02 03 01 06
Karnataka 22 03 03 28
Kerala 00 13 07 20
MP & Cha 33 07 00 40
Mahahtra 22 25 01 48
Manipur 01 01 00 02
Meghalaya 00 02 00 02
Mizoram 00 01 00 01
Nagaland 00 00 01 01
Orissa 15 06 00 21
Punjab 08 04 01 13
Rajasthan 15 10 00 25
Sikkim 00 00 01 00
TN&Pdy 00 18 22 40
Tirupura 00 00 02 02
UP+Ucand 30 25 30 85
WB 01 15 26 42
Others 02 02 01 05
Total 232 191 120 543
March 2, 2009 at 12:54 AM
Dear hari,
IN AP you can make a minor change.
NDA(1 to 3) UPA (5 to 10) others(32) Eventually trs with 6 to 9 will suupport NDA but that would be post poll scenario. As per what Boys at TRS office are saying if TRS is crucial for TDP to form government then if required KCR Would force TDP to support NDA atleast from outside. Also Naidu wouldn’t have any option if Third front doesn’t materialize which we all should hope for.
March 2, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Ritesh Ji, If Kalraj Mishra Contest from Kanpur, Then, The Brahmins and other Upper Caste votes would be Regalvanized for BJP irrespective of whom BSP would field.
Sri Kalraj Mishr is A Stronger Brahmin Leader then others.
March 2, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Guys,
There is some good news, just hold on, i am at work in office and type in detail the things that happened in the friendsofbjp meet
March 2, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Thank You Arun, We are Eagerly Waiting to Hear from You.
March 2, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Guys,
Vikas, Raj, AK, Ritesh, Anil, Hari, Raja, Aditya i can say one thing for sure all your suggestions have met the ears of BJP. I did make a document of all the suggestions in the forum and gave the printout of the same to Shri. Arun Jaitelyji, in the friends of BJP meeting held in pune, The interaction session was planned for 100 people but it turned out to be a public meeting with over 2000 people turning up for the same, i could see the anger on congress of the all the persons who assembled there. With my influence inside the party I could hand out all suggestions in a printout document to Jaitleyji when he walked to the stage. He did not answer any of the questions from the public that day. But in the stage he was reading the document (I handed over) with great interest and once the meeting was over and when was leaving , he came to me and said ” i cannot give you any details to you, but your suggestions were interesting, you can write to me on all your thoughts”, saying so he handed our his card, which has his Phone number and personal Email address. He also asked me not to share it with anyone. He left with a big smile after giving me a handshake.
Even though i could not get answers from him, i was one of the very satisfying moments. I promise that all the best suggestion in the forum would be written to him.
March 2, 2009 at 11:33 AM
replace “i was” with “it was”.
It was so nice to see Mr. Arun Jaitleyji reading all the suggestions, i n front of my own eyes. If any of you get to see the video of the Pune, you will see Jaitelyji on stage reading a document with great amount of interest. I am trying to get the video, but i have not succeeded yet!!
March 2, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Thank You Arun Ji
March 2, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Ajit Singh has just now formally joined the NDA… Deal done
March 2, 2009 at 6:09 PM
Great News Arun ji. Very well done. I feel satisfied as to have contributed in some meaningful way.
Thanks for taking this initiative. It is people like you, we are really hopeful will change the face of India
March 2, 2009 at 6:15 PM
Too much of praise Akji, i have done very little….
I would encourage BJP supporters to now join friends of bjp organisation in their respective area. It high time we go door to door and ensure a NDA govt. in 2009
March 2, 2009 at 6:34 PM
Hi Arunji,
Really you are doing good job. We literate class should come out cast our vote.. then only we can make our country and heritage proud rather than doing only living room gossip about the country pity condition..
March 2, 2009 at 9:07 PM
78-Bhadohi lok sabha, U.P
Sub: tactful inter-party politics in bhadohi bjp
Hounourable sir,
Bhadohi vidhan-sabha by election has been passed. Result is on 1st march.
I m recomending all these facts after election & political observation. Till now I was engaged in vidhan-sabha bye-election.
Consider these facts very sincerely & seriously.
Bhadohi-LS bjp candidate has been appointed on tactful inter-party politics recommendation(inter-party politics) of local strong “BSP hand” of bhadohi. Born from BJP, in past time, for self-intesrest, this “BSP hand” has used his own BJP resources in order to add one more BRAHMIN candidate in BHADOHI-LS contestant. Now there are three major contestant. According to caste-equation, Two of these three contestant are BRAHMIN & one is BIND by caste. Morever, it is more interesting or tragedic to find the intension behind the allotment of second BRAHMIN candidate by BJP,who is external or has been imported from “GHAZIPUR,U.P, failed M.L.A” career but not even from “BHADOHI,U.P, failed M.L.A” career.. Now obviously, as per the situation, LS fighting is in favour of SP candidate( Shri. Ramrati Bind, age 70). Reading above facts, it is now very logical to feel the situation of “BJP SUICIDE” in bhadohi LS fighting.
By using good intelligence, anybody can explore the extreme & un-expected factual relation between above mentioned “BSP hand”, state level bjp executive officers & even Shri mahendra pandey (bhadohi bjp LS candidate). Born from BJP, this “BSP hand” has been gifting good business to state level bjp executive officers and even Shri mahendra pandey ji.
The whole selection-process of Bhadohi BJP LS contestant had been hi-jacked by this “BSP Hand”, for his own local self-interest inter-party politics.
All the data or details supplied by bjp district & state level to CENTRAL-BJP had been fraudly manipulated to show the Brahmin-majority area, while ignoring the fact that one strong, fresh multi-millionaire BSP candidate (Businessman Shri Suuryamani Tripathi) is alrealy playing on LS fighting. Pls. pay yr. spl. Attention here that this personality(Businessman Shri Suuryamani Tripathi) had feeded and promoted above “BSP hands’s” politics in past from background. But now in present there is no tunning between these old friend and trying to overlap or competent to each other, even being from same bsp party. Above “BSP hand” is not accepting Shri Surymani tripathi’s political entrance & trying to fail it by, promoting or neutralizing, additional external, weak, Brahmin face of local bhadohi area.. Remember that, Shri suryamani had got BSP ticket without help of above “BSP HAND” and not getting support from above “bsp hand’s political infrastructure”. You can examin these hint true by here local investigation.
Under this conspiracy, Your state executive officers had put bhadohi LS seat in “C” category and using it for their personal politics obligation and another side they r saying that it is BRAHMIN majority area. How? It is justified that
LS seat, having 3 non-bjp party Brahmin MLA plus one strong, fresh multi-millionaire Brahmin BSP LS candidate, will be productive for BJP in reference to Brahmin majority seat(so called)..
Sarcasticaly , one can find regarding LS figthing that BSP has put “BOFORCE TANK”, SP has put “ROCKET LAUNCHER” but BJP has put pistol to fight LS or MISSION 2009. How it is possible?
Why this seat has been categorized as “C” class, when here BJPian Shri virendra singh has been won two times as MP & another period as second fighter. Ex BJP MP Virendra sing had to leave here due to being external candidate in bhadohi sense by here’s local people.
Try to understand the role of public, land bjp workers in allotment of bjp bhadohi candidate. In past under bhadohi LS seat was also containing 4 MLAs with BLPian MP. According to latest delimitation procees of bhadohi, 33% of population is forward class, 50% backwards, 25% sc/st. In addition to it reason behind all of these creative & positive complaints is that you were having the chance of “WIN” this seat by one local, fresh, young, dynamic, socialated vote bank, multi-millionaire,characterful qualified contestant, whose claim has been damaged due to inter-party politics of local politics.
U denied his claim, who made stand to your pary since last three yrs in bhadohi bjp by his talent. He did a lot of assignments & preparation to winnability factor for yr. party. By doing so, u hire officers have put yr. laxity towards yr. winnability factor. Record-WIN by your party was final by presentment of that young candidate. He could fail all the caste-equation of all other party. You cant imagine his capability because he was NEW! By local investigation you can find that Shi mahendra pandey is only fighting only for his political entertainment being on political ventilator in advance.
Denying this contestant before vidhan sabha bye-election, also made public’s aggressive-ness to defect result on 1st march, otherwise we could achieve target of v.sabha also. I also came to this soul-inspiration to writing, as being hard-core BJPian. We didn’t having representation of bjp here since long time. We r now tired. One excellent hope was there, but we missed it probably.
My all above statement is justified, if you think for only you own party.
My all above statement is not justified, if you don’think for your own party.
Adapt to improve, by your self-examination before time, either you get dissolve these statements in yourself. Pls. keep confi-dential
If your aim is nothing in life, you can’t miss anything!
If yr. work will be in +ve direction, I will contact you automatically
Save our target and efforts , u all r the gods for this mission.
BJP JITEGI-BHARAT JITEGA
Vande matram!
March 3, 2009 at 12:56 AM
Arun ji
Please share this video with BJP leaders.
http://deshgujarat.com/2009/02/26/shocking-state-of-rahul-gandhis-general-knowledgevideo/
March 3, 2009 at 5:17 AM
If I had to guess now it would be
STATE NDA UPA Othr Total
AP 01 22 19 42
Arunachal 01 01 00 02
Assam 08 05 01 14
Bihar& Jh 28 24 02 54
Delhi 03 04 00 07
Goa 01 01 00 02
Gujarat 16 10 00 26
Haryana 06 04 00 10
Himchal 03 01 00 04
J &K 02 03 01 06
Karnataka 18 05 05 28
Kerala 00 13 07 20
MP & Cha 25 15 00 40
Mahahtra 23 25 00 48
Manipur 01 01 00 02
Meghalaya 00 02 00 02
Mizoram 00 01 00 01
Nagaland 00 00 01 01
Orissa 13 08 00 21
Punjab 07 05 01 13
Rajasthan 12 13 00 25
Sikkim 00 00 01 00
TN&Pdy 00 20 20 40
Tirupura 00 00 02 02
UP+Ucand 15 33 37 85
WB 00 17 25 42
Others 02 02 01 05
Total 185 235 123 543
March 3, 2009 at 7:48 AM
Bhai JaiChand,
Baaki to sab theek hai, par tumhain nahin lagta ki after 10 yrs state (mis)rule & 5 yr at center, Farmers committing suicide in Vidharbha , Maharashtra will give NDA at least 32+ seats. Uttarakhand , BJP will win 4/5 in not all 5. With RLD joining BJP, NDA will cross 25 seats in UP.
So UP & UK : 30+ for NDA
In Jharkhand, after 5 yrs of misrule between Congress, JMM & RJD, people are fed up. NDA will win at least 10/14 seats.
In Bihar, UPA can no way get even 20 seats, 15 might be realistic.
So Jharkhand+Bihar, : 35 + NDA
I think NDA is ahead of UPA at this time, but yes doesn’t have majority.
March 3, 2009 at 7:49 AM
Good Analysis and points of concern too Sonu Ji
March 3, 2009 at 10:43 AM
in Bihar, this time UPA would Not get more than 10 seats.
March 3, 2009 at 6:18 PM
Hi,
Now news
March 3, 2009 at 9:19 PM
Good news for BJP from Jharkhand… JMM going away from UPA
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/002200903031231.htm
March 4, 2009 at 2:51 AM
BJP leaves 7 seats to RLD in U.P.
Although the ‘formula’ was not publicly disclosed, senior BJP leaders confirmed that their party agreed, at a meeting here, to leave seven seats for its partner — Mathura, Baghpat, Nagina, Hathras, Amroha, Sitapur and Muzaffarnagar.
http://www.hindu.com/2009/03/03/stories/2009030356970100.htm
RLD is also part of NDA, I guess, it will make difference in 10 -15 seats in western UP.
March 4, 2009 at 8:05 AM
Dear AKS, Even otherwise, UPA would face a Rout in Bihar and Jharkhand
In Jharkhand UPA cant win more than 2 seats and in Bihar UPA at the most would win 6(5 for RJD and 1 for LJSP)
March 4, 2009 at 8:05 AM
Dear AK, of these 7, RLD would Win a Minimum of 5 Easily
March 4, 2009 at 8:31 AM
Yes Raj, and likewise it will benefit BJP in remaining 5-7 seats as there votes are nearly transferable, unlike Congress votes, which may not end up with SP.
If BJP+RLD cross 30 seats in UP, NDA will get clear majority in Center.
In Jharkhand, if JMM fights independently, then BJP can route them 14-0 , else UPA might get 3-4 seats.
Bihar, I am not as optimist Raj ji, I think NDA will be 20+ out of 40.
March 4, 2009 at 8:52 AM
NO Way AK Bhai, Nitish has Brought Administration to Bihar which witnessed jungleRaj under Lallu.
He broke lallu’s back9OBC Votebamk) by dividing OBC into EBC and OBC
He has put terrorising JD Leaders behind Bar
The Biased media is up for a big surprise, There is Revolt in LJSP over continuiance in UPA as Lallu is already a partner
This time the communists are not in UPA in Bihar.
so all these factors will leed to UPA’s rout in Bihar.
March 4, 2009 at 9:27 AM
* Terrorising RJD leaders behind bars
March 4, 2009 at 9:32 AM
Hi,
Innerfighting in BSP, becasue of Brahmin.
March 4, 2009 at 9:41 AM
Please complete Ritesh Bhai
March 4, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Dear all you can read this news reports (it is in Hindi if u can),
http://in.jagran.yahoo.com/epaper/index.php?location=37&edition=2009-03-03&pageno=15#
http://in.jagran.yahoo.com/epaper/
BSP infighting of Brahmins & one left BSP,
BSP removing Brahmin candidates from Bhadohi & Mirzapur,
this will push Brahmins towards BJP bcoz Congress candidates absent.
BSP opting for OBC candidates who will cut into SP’s vote.
March 4, 2009 at 11:19 AM
Hi,
There is innerfighting in BSP Brahmin MPs.
March 4, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Mixed News:
some good like rampur , some bad news like the candidates in Fathepur sikri
http://www.samaylive.com/news/congress-declares-list-of-24-ls-candidates-in-up/612083.html
March 4, 2009 at 3:52 PM
pls read arun shourie articles on how upa mis handeled countrys economy. i hope you all take good care of your self as i know cong will be following this web site i am conserned about secuirty(just joking). well this articles are must read you can find them on indianexpress.com.
March 4, 2009 at 4:01 PM
Maine Padha Hai Vikas Ji, Bahut Shub Samaachaar hai
well, I can Read and Write Only in HBindi and English, Courtesey : My Education in Kendriya Vidyalaya
March 4, 2009 at 4:03 PM
well, in Fatehpur Sikri, as Raj Babbar is The Candidate, it wont be a Friendly Fight.
March 4, 2009 at 4:20 PM
thats y i have put that under bad news
March 4, 2009 at 5:27 PM
Dear All,
Please suggest if we can use this platform for sharing our ideas / thoughts/ learning for making the unique election campaign for BJP. So that these ideas can be used by BJP candidates in this election.Hope our knowledge ,experience and unique ideas can help BJP.
March 4, 2009 at 5:42 PM
Hi,
If BJP leaders see this side, definitely th BJP wil get advantage.
March 4, 2009 at 6:15 PM
I think some of here woudl be dirctly / indirctly connected with some of BJP candidates.
March 5, 2009 at 2:16 AM
I feel BJP would have had a very good chance if its Prime Ministerial candidate was Modi. With Advani Ji, problem is that in 5 years time, he’d be near to 90 years and I certainly don’t want my country’s head to be of 90 years.
March 5, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Good news from Bihar,
National General Sec of LJP, Ranjan Yadav, a powerful yadav leader and others join JD(U
This will take some of Yadav vote from Lalu to NDA.
http://www.patnadaily.com/news2009/mar/030209/grandsons_join_jdu.html
March 5, 2009 at 10:41 AM
http://www.zeenews.com/nation/2009-03-01/511749news.html
March 5, 2009 at 1:19 PM
Yes AK Bhai, I Read That News and I am Quite Optimistic that UPA would NOT Win more than 6 seats in Bihar(5 for RJD and 1 paswan) .
March 5, 2009 at 1:32 PM
The following news indicate that NDA prospects are improving
1) AGP- BJP sorted out amicably in all seats:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/BJP-AGP-announce-pre-poll-alliance/articleshow/4227481.cms
March 5, 2009 at 1:35 PM
2) Sena-BJP kiss and makeup
http://www.samaylive.com/news/bjpsena-to-continue-with-existing-seatsharing/612280.html
The congress is struggling to find candidates in Mumbai, after Sarukh Khan saying no to INC, now they want Nagma (will surely loose).
The biggest heache for the BJP in Maharashtra seems to be the BSP, it has put up Brahmin candidates (Ex-BJP) in Nagour, Ratnagiri, Pune and Thane (most of them strongholds of BJP)
March 5, 2009 at 1:36 PM
3) Ulema further helping in dividing Anti-BJP votes
http://www.samaylive.com/news/ulema-council-announces-5-candidates-in-up-for-ls-polls/612270.html
March 5, 2009 at 1:37 PM
4) As expected friendly fights are between Congress and SP
http://www.samaylive.com/news/sp-unhappy-with-cong-releasing-list-of-24-nominees-in-up/612250.html
March 5, 2009 at 2:25 PM
Dear Arun, Except in UP, No where else did Upper Castes Vote for BSP
Therefore, her Brahmin-Dalit Bonhomie Doesnt work Elsewhere. In UP too, it was a one time thing. Now that mayawati fielded all Anti Hindu muslim terrorists in UP, in UP too Upper Castes Would Vote against BSP and gravitate towards BJP
March 5, 2009 at 3:32 PM
Sulekha.com Network sent me this email:
found an interesting link to share with you and wants you to check it to suggest oppose online for above personality. Mr. vikas ji, & advani ji u r in blunt mistake. From bhadohi,u.p- mahendra pandey is not youth but he is 62 by age & suffering from soriasis (skin-disease) & even then preparing for at this heated april-may Campaign.tell me how he will be succeeded. in addition to it he is imported candidate from ghazipur (failed MLA) career to bhadohi, just for politics entertainment, because he is un-known by 98% of bhadohi L.S public. he is here due to his only seniority or waiting for any special bjp-wave, which won’t come ever. he will get only votes under hard-ship of bjp symbol. after his announcement as mp contestant, he faced a by-assembly election at bhadohi vidhan sabha and he resulted bhadohi-bjp on “jamanat-jabt”. this “jamanat-jabt” happened due to public;s aggressiveness becoz of his absurd announcement as bjp candidate. To read full story read open url: http://sonuaa.blogspot.com/ note: i wrote it in reference to url:”http://promiseofreason.com/countdown-to-general-election-2009-north-india-a-battleground/#comment-795″ by vikas kumar
Check the link here: http://sonuaa.sulekha.com/blog/post/2009/03/78-bhadohi-lok-sabha-u-p-sub-tactful-inter-party.htm
March 5, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Dear all
Many positive developments are vtaking place for BJP-NDA
Shiv-Sena, AGP, JDU alliance ans seat sharing finalising. GOOD
Chakresh, about mahendra pandey it was slip in typewriting once in that communication, but later in any communication I had never writen such point. moreover I had never counted Bhadohi as a potential win seat for BJP, I had always maintained Mirzapur, Phulpur as possible seats, Varanasi a sure one, Allahabad difficult, Ghazipur & Bhadohi not at all possible, in this region. However I had assessed Azamgarrh a much possible seat for BJP after last year bye-election result to this seat. Bhadohi was never inpossible calcul;ation, and later on I had never writen on this seat.
Actually while writing long blogs as I usually do write one or two slips may occur or in copying pasting as I write profile of one candidate and copy it for other with edits.
March 5, 2009 at 5:45 PM
This time evrything are in favor of NDA in this region.even though BSP will play a majo role,all other areas in north will give clear mandate for BJP – NDA.
March 5, 2009 at 6:04 PM
http://www.samaylive.com/news/congsp-alliance-in-doldrums/612310.html
Cong-SP alliance in doldrums?
March 5, 2009 at 11:16 PM
my assumtion ,BSP WILL GET ABOUT 65 lOKSHAVA SEATS FROM UTTER PRADESH .And will crwoss 100 seats in india. Mayaboti will be THE PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA, supported by NDA UNCONDITIONALLY.Rudrapratap Deury
March 6, 2009 at 8:32 AM
Nice Dream Rudra
will remain a Dream for Ever.
March 6, 2009 at 8:40 AM
Hi Rudra,
Why not 80 from UP.
March 6, 2009 at 9:20 AM
some sources say, Shekawat got some of his players in the Rajashanlist and hence is willing to campaign
http://www.samaylive.com/news/shekhawat-visits-advani-breaks-bread/612380.html
March 6, 2009 at 9:28 AM
Nice analysis by Devesh Kumar, read it
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/UPAs-hurricane-lantern-running-out-of-fuel/articleshow/4231433.cms
March 6, 2009 at 10:11 AM
g8 new, from different of 50 seats (IBN survey), the pro-congress english media is now giving a change for BJP (TOI- UPA ahead by 6 seats)
March 6, 2009 at 10:51 AM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/LS-polls-UPA-ahead-but-only-just/articleshow/4231179.cms#write
The difference given by TOI between NDA and UPA is six seats. The biggest comedy of the survey has been UP where they have given Cong 10 seats and BJP 8 seats. It good that in UP BJP will work much more harder after seeing this laughable opinion polls. I personally think that NDA will improve in Assam(TOI-6, Mine- 9), Bihar (TOI-24, Mine- 29), UP (TOI-8, Mine-24), Maha (TOI- 24, Mine- 30). Many be few more seats in AP, Delhi, karnataka and Rajasthan may help the cause.
If the above improvements happen we may well see a NDA government without BSP, TMC at the centre (NDA supported by TDP, TRS, ADMK, PMK and MDMK).
March 6, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Dear Raj & all
TOI-survey referred here by friendsofbjp.org in their communication.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/TOI-estimate-UPA-ahead-but-only-just/rssarticleshow/4231179.cms
clearly shows the same thing which I wrote about surveys of CNN-IBN.
So let alliances materialise, candidates announced, rebels prop up, friendly contests occurs, campaigning starts and pollong takes place and counting is done NDA will emerge with clear majority.
March 6, 2009 at 11:08 AM
Vikasji,
the biggest comdey is UP in the survey, where BJP has aligned with RLD, SP and Congress are going for friendly fights, Jintin prasad fighting from a constituency other than his Mahavir prasad convicted and the survey gives 10 seats to congress and 8 to BJP
March 6, 2009 at 1:46 PM
Actually the method they had used the method for forecasting is a kind of Delphi Technique, it is not a survey at all.
The credibility of the this method depends too much on the competence of experts and it is well known how incompetent are the bureaus of the English media, especially in eloctoral political understanding.
Well also these people have almost copied the results of 2004 with only exercise of adding seats of their new allies replacing by old ones and some sort of possible change in total seat projection.
If u read completely they had mentioned a number of assumptions, on those grounds that assessment is by & large right on assessment’s date. There is no wrong.
But plz. understand election process has its kinetics & thermodynamics, which plays its own role.
It is a total process of transformation from situation A to situation B, with its own speed and extent accompanied with forward as well as backward process; any observation, measurement or an attempt to it in between will read the that time situation only, which is half way, but surely it will give the clear indication of direction of final outcome, the speed and extent is to be calculated very scientifically.
March 6, 2009 at 1:50 PM
Still SP-Cong is not completely ruled out which is a very good news for NDA.
SP-Cong are looking to find a way out with friendly contests.
See link below (in hindi):
http://in.jagran.yahoo.com/epaper/
March 6, 2009 at 2:14 PM
Another Big Big Blow to Lalu in Bihar, the guy who has joined JD(U) is very influencial!!!! This guy will bring more votes than Ranjan Yadav!!!!
http://www.patnadaily.com/news2009/mar/030509/rjd_leader_joins_jdu.html
March 6, 2009 at 4:25 PM
Dear friendsofbjp
Jatin Prasad has shifted to adjoining Dhaurahera bcos his present seat Shahjahanpur has become SC reserved.
Similarly Raj Babbar has shifted to adjoining Fatehpur Sikri bcos his present seat Agra has become SC reserved.
March 7, 2009 at 5:41 AM
i think BJP will get 3 seats in UP . not more than that. sure. better this time BJP should not be contest in UP . instead of loosing
March 7, 2009 at 12:05 PM
and Goutham I help you,
U mean these three seats will be
1. RAE BARELI
2. AMETHI
3. MAINPURI
where BJP candidates will defeat
SONIA GANDHI,
RAHUL GANDHI, &
MULAYAM SINGH YADAV
respectively.
And I also understand why U said BJP will not win any more 4th seat bcos
MAYAWATI is not likely to contest Lok Sabha polls fearing all this.
March 7, 2009 at 7:40 PM
well said Vikas Ji.
The one who posted as Goutham is a sullah
March 8, 2009 at 12:10 AM
Big setback for BJP in Orissa
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/setback-for-bjp-ally-bjd-dumps-it-in-orissa/87095-37.html
But BJD will also suffer…
March 8, 2009 at 2:34 AM
Hi AKS,
Its really a big blow..
It will spell a doubt on NDA existence also slowly slowly…
UPA are now jubiliant..
Best I can hope that we BJP comes up with flying colour so that we can have throw out UPA from power forever.
Hope for best for NDA
March 8, 2009 at 8:11 PM
In the meantime , SP puts up 74 Candidates in UP, leaving just 6 seats for congress.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/SP-leaves-only-six-seats-for-Congress-in-UP/articleshow/4241520.cms
I think now congress will file 40 seats , then SP will take it to 78 and then Congress to 60-70 seats.
I think for certain, SP will loose strength from 39 to less than 20, BSP will go from 19 to 40+.
March 8, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Dear AK, NO Way BSP Would go to 40 Plus. It is A Media Hype and Hallu Bullu about mayawati and her social engineering.
With Upper Castes reverting to BJP , Mayawati is set to win a maximum of 32-35 Lok Sabha Seats.
Congress and SP together cannot muster more than 15-18 seats as BSP is cutting into the muslim vote.
with SP and congress having only a tactic understanding, The muslim vote would further split.
BJP has to see that Upper Castes Dont vote with congress
BJP Alliance can win A Minimum of 30 Lok Sabha Seats in UP
March 9, 2009 at 12:31 AM
now BJP has got a solid opportunity to rule Orissa. history repeats itself
janata dal collapsed in Gujarat and Gujarat is BJP bastion
Janata Dal collapsed in Karnataka and now Karnataka is also a BJP bastion
Now Biju janata dal which too is a faction of janata dal is going to fall and so will janata dal in bihar if nitish kumar is foolish but nitish will ne with bjp ..
BJP should not worry..
March 9, 2009 at 9:25 AM
Another Dalit party in UP to cut into Mayawathi vote share
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/kanshi-rams-brother-to-contest-ls-elections/87154-37.html
March 9, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Nitish Isnt A Fool Like Naveen, He Wont Snap Alliance so soon, though He would at a Later time, may be By Next General Elections or may be By 1015 Bihar Elections. Not before that.
In Orissa, The Situation for BJP is Not as Bad as People think it is. BJP is Strong in Tribal Belt while BJD in Urban Areas.
Therefore, BJP has Potential to Sweep The Tribal Seats.
March 10, 2009 at 2:06 PM
VikasJi,
Is there any impact because of this development
http://www.samaylive.com/news/mulayams-jolt-to-ajit/612878.html
March 10, 2009 at 2:58 PM
Dear Arun, in My View, it will be lose to Individuals and Not to Party or Alliance.
RLD is A Caste ased Outfit, and Jats have Traditionally stood with Choudhary Ajit Singh irrespective of Where He joined.
March 12, 2009 at 7:34 AM
Great News!
————————————————————————————————
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage … +bickering
To be, not to be? Cong, allies back to bickering
The shape of political allegiances across the country kept shifting on Thursday, as long-term allies fell apart, bickering furiously over specific seats, while long-term foes exchanged notes and evolved common strategies.
The Congress-NCP tie-up in Maharashtra, which seemed all stitched up on Wednesday, lay in tatters, with the Congress suspecting a sinister hidden motive behind the NCP’s demand for 23 seats against the 21 – of a total of 48 – it contested in the last Lok Sabha poll.
In Kolkata, the tussle in Congress circles over West Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha seats intensified after the pact with the Trinamool Congress, with leaders trying to ensure their safe seats would not be bartered away.
March 12, 2009 at 9:24 AM
VikasJi,
Varanasi worries me, Sp has decided to play the spoiler there!!! MLA Ajay Rai (Kurmi) from BJP has been poached by them and given a ticket. I do not about other constituencies.
Vikasji with BSP, SP and BJP announcing almost all the candidates, give ur sense of assessment in UP. Varanasi in specific!!!
F_ _king Dalal is creating headache!!!
March 12, 2009 at 9:39 AM
This is a big big headache i guess, Vikasji ur comments on the same?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Varanasi/Ajay-Rai-derides-BJP-BSP-move/articleshow/4250505.cms
March 12, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Vikasji,
Awaiting ur analysis on the present state of UP politics
March 17, 2009 at 2:37 PM
Hi,
Kanpur seat, this time BJP will win. Ticket has been given to Local MLA Satish Mahana who has won 5 times MLA seat. He is very popular person in Kanpur. Last time BJP gave ticket to non famous person. That is why BJP lost Kanpur seat. This time BJP will win Kanpur seat 100%. SP has also fielded own candidate.
March 17, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Hi Vikasji,
Please give your comment on Kanpur seat and give some guidance for Kanpur seat.
March 17, 2009 at 2:42 PM
Hi All,
BSP( Mayawati and Kanshi Ram) used abusive language against upper caste many times.Please give some proofs. It will be very helpful for BJP in UP election.
March 17, 2009 at 2:58 PM
Varun Didnt say Anything Wrong.
He stated, He would Chop off The Hands of Those Who Hurt Hindus. How come This is Communal?
Should He say, We will Reward And Rever Terorists and Imperialists Who Harm Hindus Selectively to prove Secular Credentials?
March 17, 2009 at 3:36 PM
HiAll,
BSP( Mayawati and Kanshi Ram) used abusive language against upper caste many times.Please give some proofs. It will be very helpful for BJP in UP election.
March 17, 2009 at 4:24 PM
That Bloody Varun Gandhi has managed to do in 10 minutes what Congress and allies could not do in 5 years.
In mere 5 minutes, and I mean Yes 5 minutes he has managed to destroyed BJP.
Mark my words, if his speech will be forgotten do not worry it will not. This is only the beginning.
Guess he has lived upto his fathers expectation.
March 17, 2009 at 4:37 PM
NO Saurav Bhai, This will give A Hindutva Wave for BJP in UP
March 17, 2009 at 4:39 PM
What Wrong did Varun say?
Didnt congress use Bin Laden Alikes for getting muslims votes in Bihar Elections?
March 17, 2009 at 5:34 PM
Great News , Chances of Uma joining BJP are high,
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20090087863&ch=317200942900PM
They should shift her to Bundelkhand region in UP, it will make up for the Lodh vote bank which Mullayam is eying for after roping in Kalayan Singh.
March 17, 2009 at 5:54 PM
The line in which he mentioned the chopping of heads of a particular community was idiotic..
Varun wnats to become the champion of Hindus in UP I guess. It may not hurt electorally but it is a scar which cannot be erased
March 17, 2009 at 7:29 PM
WE ARE INDIAN[HINDOSTAN LAND OF HINDUS].HE ONLY DID FAVOUR TO HINDUES WHICH IS NOT WRONG.EVERY TRUE HINDU WILL SAY IT RIGHT.
March 17, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Hi,
It is great incident for BJP. Varun is now untouchable for other parties. In future Varun can not be dissident in BJP.
March 17, 2009 at 9:41 PM
bjp will surely win 2009 general elections if modi replaces advani
March 18, 2009 at 9:52 AM
JAB TAK HINDU EK PARTY KO NAHI APNATTE, BHARAT KA KALYAAN NAHI HO SAKTA, CONGRESS OR BJP HINDUS SHOULD VOTE IN BULK IN FAVOUR OF ONE PARTY ONLY
March 21, 2009 at 8:48 PM
So many good news today…
First from U.P.
1> Possibility of congress-SP alliance over.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Possibility-of-alliance-with-Congress-over-Amar-Singh-/articleshow/4297309.cms
2> SP fields Kalayan from Etah.
Kalayan singh already a spent force as we have seen in last assembly election. Now it will further alienate Muslim votebank of SP.
3> BJP to rope in Uma to Counter Kalayan.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-may-rope-in-uma-bharti-to-counter-kalyan/88292-37.html
BJP will get some share of SP seats now, especially where BJP came 2nd last time.
March 21, 2009 at 8:57 PM
Second Good News
From Bihar
1> It is Congress Vs Lalu-Paswan in atleast 37 seats.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Its-Sonia-vs-Lalu-Paswan-in-Bihar/articleshow/4297205.cms
With Sadhu Yadav and only dalit woman from RLD joining Congress, even if congress takes 5% vote share with these RJD rebels on board. It is good enough to reduce RLD-LJP vote share to < 40%.
Now BJP-JD(U) has good chances of sweeping Bihar with as many as 35 out of 40 seats.
March 21, 2009 at 9:09 PM
Third Good News,,
From Orissa
1> BJD’s only woman M.P. joins BJP
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjds-only-woman-mp-joins-bjp/88320-37.html
With BJD joining hands with JMM (which wants to merge couple of districts into Jharkhand) and NCP (which is part of UPA) will hurt it real bad in these elections.
This will trigger exodus of people from BJD. Keeping my finger crossed.
March 21, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Fourth Good News,
From Jharkhand
1> BJP-JD(U) seals pact, BJP -12 – JD(U) 2 seats .
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090321/jsp/frontpage/story_10701933.jsp
2> There were talks of Congress-JMM alliance split.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Congress-JMM-alliance-splits-in-Jharkhand/articleshow/4294406.cms
3> Even if Congress-JMM fight election together, RJD-LJP-Others might create another front in Jharkhand. Since LJP already indicated to contest 6 and RJD to alteast 4 seats and then there are other bunch of jokers floating around.
It will be a surprise with this set up if BJP-JD(U) wins less than 12 seats. If point 3 comes true, then they can sweep all 14 seats.
March 21, 2009 at 11:18 PM
Dear Arun ji,
I know you have contact details of Shri Atun Jaitly ji. Can you please suggest him to use Twitter http://twitter.com/. This way we can follow him. I have very high regards for him.
March 21, 2009 at 11:29 PM
Hi,
BJP should support some BJS’s MP candidate. After election
BJP may buy these MPs.
March 23, 2009 at 4:55 AM
India’s real life billionaires love to boast in the forums of the world about India being a ‘young country’. Half of India’s population is younger than 25, they like to say, so there is no question that the 21st century will be India’s century because in an ageing world we can provide the human capital to keep the wheels turning. Really? With half of India’s children suffering from various degrees of malnourishment is this possible? Malnourishment does not just stunt the body, it stunts the brain. How many mentally stunted children do we know who grow up to become employable adults?
What makes India’s poverty such a disgraceful, dark thing is that it would not exist if the poor had not been the Congress Party’s most reliable vote bank. Indira Gandhi used this vote bank to its fullest in the ‘Gharibi Hatao’ election with that most famous of her campaign slogans. ‘Woh kehtey hain Indira hatao, main kehti hoon gharibi hatao’. The poor remained poor after she won and the vote bank remained intact until copycat Congress leaders like Mulayam Singh and Laloo Yadav lured the Muslims away and Mayawati took away the Dalits. More than 90 percent of the poor in India are either low of caste or Muslim.
They would not be poor if the crores and crores of rupees spent on poverty alleviation programmes had not been wasted on unwieldy, leaky efforts like Sonia Aunty’s favourite NREGA scheme. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme serves mostly to keep poor people in poverty for the rest of their lives but because it has the blessings of Sonia Gandhi it has now been spread across the country. If the money spent on it had been invested instead in an Akshaya Patra type midday meal scheme there would be no starving children in India today and our slumdogs would go willingly to school to eat that one hot meal a day. In Karnataka where Akshay Patra began studies show that school attendance went up to nearly a hundred percent and school performance improved dramatically. So if it is so easy why does nobody do it? Well, in the opinion of your humble columnist it is because when the Bharatiya Janata Party had its brief moment of ruling India it chose not to redefine governance but only to enjoy the thrills of power. If the Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee had changed only the functioning of the ministries that deal with the social sector India may really have ended up ‘shining’.
India can never shine or become an economic superpower as long as the majority of Indian children remain malnourished, illiterate and living in urban slums or villages that are worse than slums. Hollywood can be forgiven for celebrating our slumdog children and fawning over them as they enjoyed their fifteen minutes of fame on the red carpet. It is much harder to forgive our own political leaders for seeking to exploit the desperate, sickening poverty that these children have returned to. Shame on you Sonia Aunty. For this lack of basic compassion if for no other reason you deserve to lose the elections. Our problem is that on our bleak political landscape it is hard to detect one person or political party that deserves to win.
March 23, 2009 at 9:08 AM
well said An American Indian!!!
March 26, 2009 at 12:15 PM
After Vikasji deserting the forum, there is no news on the ground realities of UP. Do anyone have an idea why he is not writing these days!!!
March 26, 2009 at 1:32 PM
Well, I Request, The Owner of This Forum to send a Personal Message to Him through e-mail.
March 26, 2009 at 1:41 PM
Hi Raj,
yeah sure, I have sent a mail to vikasji, waiting for reply
March 26, 2009 at 2:11 PM
Nice to Hear Chakresh Bhai
March 26, 2009 at 5:09 PM
Can anyone comment on CON party and Mulyam status after their split. Same with LJP and Laloo in Bihar? Is it possible that BJP gets an advantage in UP with this situation? Can BJP get 25-30 seats in UP?
March 27, 2009 at 2:50 AM
ok fellas!
the fun begins now, pre-poll prediction for general election. One state a day, detailed analysis. First one to go will be God’s own country – Kerala. All of you are invited to join the discussion there. cheers!
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-prediction-2009/
March 27, 2009 at 10:42 AM
Real face of congress secularism
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Congress-prize-catch-in-UP-backfires/articleshow/4320466.cms
March 27, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Swarup Ji, Secularism — Speak for Evangelists and Jehadis and Maoists
March 27, 2009 at 3:16 PM
Hi Raj,
In one of the newspaper, it came as news that Congress has done internal survey and it will be winning 150 seats. It was the same agency that did ealier survey for Rajasthan, Delhi assembly and thier prediction was on target. This internal survey has prompted party to go alone in Bihar and Jharkhand.
I think all these surveys are doing good job for BJP.
March 27, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Raj & Chakresh,
I found Vikasji in the Rajdeep chat of CNN IBN today. I think he has lost love for this forum these days!!!
Chakresh,
I hold you responsible for the same as we have missed on imp forum member after the change in layout of the website!!!
March 27, 2009 at 4:44 PM
Dear all
How are you
I am highly touched by all of your concerns for me.
I am really sorry I could not post any message for long 20 days barring one or two in between.
I admit actually I was not well till last week, and joined my office this week monday only after 15 days leave, thus there was lot of accumulated urgent work on my part, which I had to complete as my duty.
So sorry really I could not spare enough time to write here.
Although I was regularly reading this site and keeping update of political happenings through various sources.
In the meantime many political developments have taken place, which will have significant impact, most of them leading to favouable otcome for extended NDA.
I would be writing more regularly from Monday onwards.
Please I am sorry for long absence without any information.
March 27, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Excellent question Vikasji
VIKAS:Rajdeep, don’t you think English media is a perennial failure in determining Indian people mood, rather it is vernacular media which is more close to the the thinking lines of masses, which really matters. English media is always busy with non-pragmatic hyper idealistic discussion among elites who don’t even vote.
Rajdeep Sardesai: i agree, the english media needs to have a ear to the ground
March 27, 2009 at 4:57 PM
I could sense the underlying meaning in ur question
March 27, 2009 at 5:11 PM
VIKAS:Don’t you think VARUN GANDHI incident has enthused and motivated Uttar Pradesh BJP workers especially in Rohilkhand-Western UP who were otherwise demoralised?
Rajdeep Sardesai: elections are not just about enthusing cadres, but also about enthusing the indian nation
He didn’t answered my question directly but indirectly he accepted the total incident has rejuvenated cadres of BJP.
This activated workers only make a party successful in elections
March 27, 2009 at 9:29 PM
Umabharati’s return to BJP’s fold(although not officially)will certainly enthsiase the cader in UP and considerably improve the position of BJP.The second line leaders should bury thier differences with Umabahrati and wholeheartedly welcome and accomodate her back in BJP with a respectable position.Umabharati after all is a true face of Hindutva and gave her 100% for growth of BJP in the north.The frontline leaders by accomodating Umabharati can send positive signals to the nation that the party is above all.
March 28, 2009 at 2:25 PM
Hi Raj,
I am expecting 25-40 seats from BJP+ in UP this time, Varun has been arrested. Congress does not know basic of politics.
March 28, 2009 at 3:16 PM
Reality of Varun Gandhi speech
what Varun Gandhi said and what media made it … I have a video explaining this.
http://promiseofreason.com/reality-of-varun-gandhi-speech/
March 28, 2009 at 5:41 PM
what else can rajdeep say.
And well, I was away from my computer for a day with my friend.
And Thank You Vikas Ji.
We need Your Input for North India.
March 28, 2009 at 5:54 PM
for UP my Prediction : BJP — 30, RLD — 4, JD(U) — 1
A Minimum
March 30, 2009 at 3:45 AM
Varun’s episode shows how dangerous and anti-national our media organizations have become. They are being foreign funded, they owe their allegiance to foreign entities such as CNN, missionary organizations which seek the destruction of India. There is not even pretense of objectivity in the press and they are crude in engineering a fraud to make the Italian Mafia the undisputed leaders of India. I hope people can understand it.
March 30, 2009 at 9:20 AM
Manoj Ji, 80% of People in India, give A Damn to English Media and their hindi affiliates like ibn7, ndtv india. And Those who Keep track of English/National Media are Strong BJP Supporters.
March 30, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Chakresh,
I have sent you an Email on Maha, you can share the same with raj, Ritesh and other forum members.
Guys,
Would appreciate if someone can throw light in the possibilities and probabilities of UP politics.
March 30, 2009 at 5:36 PM
Dear all
As promised I will try to write regularly in this forum from today.
In last three weeks there is a consistent improvement in BJP chances in UP.
VARUN Gandhi episode has benefited BJP alot i8n UP, especially Western UP, Rohilkhand and Nepal border belt regions. This region has average 25% minorities votes, ranging from 10% to 45%. SP, BSP, Congress had put up many Muslim candidates here. Almost every seat has one Muslim candidate out of these parties, leaving SC reserved seats. In a good number of them around 10 there are 2 muslim candidates.
Mayawati Govt. aggression over Varun Gandhi, will lead to high polarisation here, with even Dalits opting for BJP especially non-Jatavs in polarised seats.
BJP-RLD-BKD-JDU-BJSP are making a formidable combination here. They have framed a very optimum caste combination here too. They had given more no of tickets to Brahmins, Baniyas, Jats, Thakurs, various OBCs, as BJP is under no pressure to give tickets to Muslims. Thus they have more 10 tickets for all castes.
More tommorrow.
March 30, 2009 at 8:28 PM
Wow!!! Thatz Real Good News!!!!
March 30, 2009 at 11:09 PM
“In national capital it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.”
wth…. i guess u are a diehard bjp supporter..
get ur facts right man….. bjp lost the assembly elections in delhi comprehensively..
god bless..!!
March 31, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Delhiites, well BJP lost in Delhi Assembly because of Over Confidence and Poor Selection of Candidates.
In Lok Sabha, BJP has Already Chosen Better Candidates than congress in All 7 Constituencies.
March 31, 2009 at 6:13 PM
Twenty-nine-year-old Ravneet Singh Bittu, grandson of former Punjab chief minister Beant Singh and the party’s candidate in the Anandpur Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, has never been to college. Bittu is facing the Akali Dal’s Diljeet Singh Cheema, who has an MBBS degree and has been a practising doctor for more than 10 years.
A political novice, Bittu’s only qualification is his proximity to Rahul Gandhi, and this does not seem to be helping him. Though his candidature was preferred over many senior Congress leaders, he has become an embarrassment to the party as the Akalis, as part of their election ploy, have decided to “start a literacy movement in the constituency”.
Cheema said the movement, called ‘Jago Bittu school chalo’, would target school dropouts. He said his party proposed to make his Congress rival a model for the movement, adding that it was surprising that Rahul Gandhi had picked a school dropout as the new youth icon in the constituency.
He said he would appeal to his voters to tell Bittu to first “complete his school and college education, instead of going to Parliament”.
The second Congress candidate handpicked by Rahul is Sukhvinder Twenty-nine-year-old Ravneet Singh Bittu, grandson of former Punjab chief minister Beant Singh and the party’s candidate in the Anandpur Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, has never been to college. Bittu is facing the Akali Dal’s Diljeet Singh Cheema, who has an MBBS degree and has been a practising doctor for more than 10 years.
A political novice, Bittu’s only qualification is his proximity to Rahul Gandhi, and this does not seem to be helping him. Though his candidature was preferred over many senior Congress leaders, he has become an embarrassment to the party as the Akalis, as part of their election ploy, have decided to “start a literacy movement in the constituency”.
Cheema said the movement, called ‘Jago Bittu school chalo’, would target school dropouts. He said his party proposed to make his Congress rival a model for the movement, adding that it was surprising that Rahul Gandhi had picked a school dropout as the new youth icon in the constituency.
He said he would appeal to his voters to tell Bittu to first “complete his school and college education, instead of going to Parliament”.
The second Congress candidate handpicked by Rahul is Sukhvinder Singh Danny, who is contesting from the Faridkot Lok Sabha seat. The son of a former Punjab cabinet minister Sardool Singh, Danny is making things awkward for party workers after his selection on compassionate grounds as a police inspector was cancelled for producing the “wrong certificate”.
Danny faces Akali Dal nominee Paramjit Kaur Gulshan, who earlier represented the Bathinda Lok Sabha seat. In her campaign, she has often highlighted how her rival earlier “chose to join the police through fraudulent means”. She said it was surprising that the Congress was trying to send “such elements to Parliament”.Singh
You will never see this in garbage news papers as the bast@rds would like the ITALIAN MAFIA to rule for ever. But I want to bring this happy news to you all.
—————————————————————-
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1243961
Bittu and Danny, the two young Lok Sabha candidates handpicked by AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi to contest the forthcoming elections, have become an embarrassment to the party in Punjab.
Bittu and Danny, the two young Lok Sabha candidates handpicked by AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi to contest the forthcoming elections, have become an embarrassment to the party in Punjab.
Danny, who is contesting from the Faridkot Lok Sabha seat. The son of a former Punjab cabinet minister Sardool Singh, Danny is making things awkward for party workers after his selection on compassionate grounds as a police inspector was cancelled for producing the “wrong certificate”.
Danny faces Akali Dal nominee Paramjit Kaur Gulshan, who earlier represented the Bathinda Lok Sabha seat. In her campaign, she has often highlighted how her rival earlier “chose to join the police through fraudulent means”. She said it was surprising that the Congress was trying to send “such elements to Parliament”.
March 31, 2009 at 6:21 PM
When I posted this before, it came all jumbled up.
Here is the news you won’t see in TOIlet India or NDTV or CNN-IBN.
———————————————————————–
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1243961
Rahul’s wrong choice embarrasses Congress
Chandigarh: Bittu and Danny, the two young Lok Sabha candidates handpicked by AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi to contest the forthcoming elections, have become an embarrassment to the party in Punjab.
Twenty-nine-year-old Ravneet Singh Bittu, grandson of former Punjab chief minister Beant Singh and the party’s candidate in the Anandpur Sahib Lok Sabha constituency, has never been to college. Bittu is facing the Akali Dal’s Diljeet Singh Cheema, who has an MBBS degree and has been a practising doctor for more than 10 years.
A political novice, Bittu’s only qualification is his proximity to Rahul Gandhi, and this does not seem to be helping him. Though his candidature was preferred over many senior Congress leaders, he has become an embarrassment to the party as the Akalis, as part of their election ploy, have decided to “start a literacy movement in the constituency”.
Cheema said the movement, called ‘Jago Bittu school chalo’, would target school dropouts. He said his party proposed to make his Congress rival a model for the movement, adding that it was surprising that Rahul Gandhi had picked a school dropout as the new youth icon in the constituency.
He said he would appeal to his voters to tell Bittu to first “complete his school and college education, instead of going to Parliament”.
The second Congress candidate handpicked by Rahul is Sukhvinder Singh Danny, who is contesting from the Faridkot Lok Sabha seat. The son of a former Punjab cabinet minister Sardool Singh, Danny is making things awkward for party workers after his selection on compassionate grounds as a police inspector was cancelled for producing the “wrong certificate”.
Danny faces Akali Dal nominee Paramjit Kaur Gulshan, who earlier represented the Bathinda Lok Sabha seat. In her campaign, she has often highlighted how her rival earlier “chose to join the police through fraudulent means”. She said it was surprising that the Congress was trying to send “such elements to Parliament”.
March 31, 2009 at 10:19 PM
Vikasji,
I have done my homework towards Maha.
Raj has done the work towards AP and
Shanteesh has done his bid in Karnataka!!!
Its time we hear more on UP!! I have already done some homework, i can share the same if ur in requirement!!!
Guys,
Another good news, there is not only anger in UP but there is a huge underground anger in Maha after yesterdays Pawar speech where he openly claimed that RSS is responsible for terrorist activities. BJP has put up a heavy weight against him in Mada and after yesterday speech of Pawar, Modi has announced that he will campaign in Mada for 2 full days. The RSS is really angry and working hard to defeat Pawar and SK Shinde from Mada and Solapur. If the former does not happen, the latter is sure to happen.
The Sena and BJP seems to have done their home work in picking candidates. There is so much in fighting in NCP and congress on the same. For instance NCp is sure to lose in its bastions Shirur and Maval and is finding it tough in Hathkanagale and Kholapur.
April 1, 2009 at 1:05 PM
Dear all
I am now starting analysis for UP seats in Lok Sabha Elections 2009.As all of you know UP is the largest state in terms of no. of Lok sabha seats with 80 odd LS seats.
The Lok Sabha (LS) elections in UP will be held in all five phases, in each phase approx. 16 seats will be voting, which is in the range of total no. of seats in moderate size states like Orissa (21), Kerala (20), Assam (14), Jharkhand (14), Punjab (13)= Total 82. So, in this way each phase of UP is equivalent to one of these states and total UP is equal to sum total of all these states approx.
I don’t want to overemphasize the political importance of UP, but presenting the sheer facts only. Unlike the popular concept of UP’s decisive role in Central politics (Delhi ka raasta Lucknow se hokar jaata hai, as commonly said); I am of the opinion after 1989 for last two decades the importance of UP in national politics has came down & down over the time. There are strong facts to support this view.
Since 1991, any party who won majority seats in UP failed to form Govt. at centre or if made Govt. failed to continue significantly more than an year. Look at facts:
In 1991, riding over Ram Lahar and Ayodhya Movement BJP got majority in UP state assembly and formed state Govt. in UP for the first time in the simultaneously happened state Assembly Elections with the Lok Sabha.
BJP won 51 (=60%) out of 85 LS seats in then undivided UP and become second largest party. But party had to sit in opposition in centre as main opposition party. The Congress which secured only 5 seats in UP formed the Govt. at Centre.
In 1996, BJP continued its hold over UP and increased its tally to 52 out of 85 and become single largest party in Lok Sabha. It formed the Govt. at centre under the leadership of Sh. Atal Behari Vajpayeeji for the first time. But this govt. could not survive and collapsed after 13 days because BJP could not muster majority. This time United Front formed the Govt. of which SP was a major constituent. SP was a distant second after BJP in terms of LS seats from UP.
In 1998, BJP gave its best performance in the state. It won +70% LS seats from the state with allies i.e. 60 out of 85 (BJP:57;Its allies:3). This time BJP succeed to form the Govt. at centre and prove its majority also. But this Govt. also fell after an year, over the loss of vote of confidence in Lok Sabha by 1 vote with AIADMK taking back its support.
In 1999, BJP could form the Govt. at centre with majority and served for the almost full term. But this was the election in which after a dream run for almost a decade in three subsequent Lok Sabha elections in UP of continuous improvement in tally, BJP suffered major reversals with its no. of seats coming down to as low as 25. It faced major losses to SP, BSP, Congress-RLD, who picked up as many as 26, 14, 9 & 2 respectively scoring a major improvement from their previous tally of 16, 4, 0 & 0 respectively. But none of these got any say in Govt. formation at centre.
In 2004, the role of UP further depleted to all time low. The Congress which formed the Govt. at centre came fourth in UP in 9 no. of LS seats and the third no. party BJP in UP with 11 LS seats with allies became the principal opposition. The SP-RLD alliance which came first bagging 38 out of 80 seats, found no takers at centre. Congress party formed Govt. with the support of Left parties, without seeking any help of SP or BSP.
Before this election the winner in UP got at least the role of opposition at centre, in this election it also lost this significance also. The number of ministers in Union Govt. was as low as below 4, with not even a single Cabinet minister in them. Even the state ministers were not holding independent charge. The states like Maharashtra (48), Andhra Pradesh (42), Bihar(40) and Tamil Nadu (39) had 8-8 ministers with many key cabinet portfolios. The UPA Govt. has done gross injustice to UP in this regard. This was the reason UP got step-motherly treatment in all areas of development and growth from the Central Govt.
Actually, for such a pathetic situation of UP, the people of UP are only to be blamed. They always get along with the party which was on the losing side at the national level. UP voters are always overwhelmed with the misconception of their over importance in national politics. (Delhi ka raasta Lucknow se hokar jaata hai, as commonly said.)They don’t go with the nation and always busy with national politics and give no importance to local issues. The political situations in UP have been in negative correlation with the nation’s mood over these two decades, by and large.
The media and environment also exaggerates the role of UP to add to their belief every time. It is actually the states of Maharashtra (48), Andhra Pradesh (42), Bihar (40), Tamil Nadu(39) and Karnataka (28); totaling 197 LS seats which finally decides the national outcome. As a result these states are real beneficiary in the Central Govt. power benefits, more than proportionately. The correlation of the political situation in this state has been in positive correlation with nation’s, which benefited them these two decades.
April 1, 2009 at 1:47 PM
@vikasji
why don’t you mail me the whole analysis and I shall post it as new entry, in that way more people will be able to read it, otherwise it will be lost in long thread of comments.
between thanx for such great work
April 1, 2009 at 1:59 PM
Hi Vikasji,
Do seat by seat analysis(80 seats in UP). It will be permanently organised by
Chakresh. Do not do in one. Keep on doing one by one seat in UP.
April 1, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Chakresh,
I think we can follow a standard format for all the states with the following columns.
Constituency No(as per EC)
Polling Date
Probability of NDA winning
NDA candidate
Main Opponent
Spolier
Factor for the electorate
As far as Maharashtra is concern, during this weekend i would complete the spreadsheet in detail and would forward it to you.
April 1, 2009 at 2:18 PM
Thanks all!
The earlier post was only the prelude to analysis. Now I will do region wise seat by seat analysis. As UP is avery lage in political size, it can not be covered in one write-up but will require several versions. well I am staring the first version from today.
April 1, 2009 at 2:23 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, I Wish You Send the write up to Chakresh Ji and we have a new Topic.
Also As UP is too Big, I request You to Analyze atleast in Five Parts : Harit Pradesh,RohilKhand,Central UP, Poorvanchal and Bundhelkhand
April 1, 2009 at 2:28 PM
Great Observation Vikas Ji!!!
In 2004, the role of UP further depleted to all time low. The Congress which formed the Govt. at centre came fourth in UP in 9 no. of LS seats and the third no. party BJP in UP with 11 LS seats with allies became the principal opposition. The SP-RLD alliance which came first bagging 38 out of 80 seats, found no takers at centre. Congress party formed Govt. with the support of Left parties, without seeking any help of SP or BSP.
Before this election the winner in UP got at least the role of opposition at centre, in this election it also lost this significance also. The number of ministers in Union Govt. was as low as below 4, with not even a single Cabinet minister in them. Even the state ministers were not holding independent
I Never Noticed this!!!!
And from TN with stupid players like PMK with just 6 MPs had as many as , DMK called Shots.
Lallu and Shibu Soren too had their say.
LF ruled without accountability!!!
People of UP should be reminded that by voting to BSP or SP they would only be Humiliated at National Level.
April 1, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Vikasji,
I have only one small point to raise on the importance of UP in this election. All the years you have mentioned on UP having a smaller say has peculiar behavior in the south.
Tamil Nadu and AP put together make about 81 seats. In all these years the swings in these states have determined the centre. Interesting in all elections the 2 states have always had coherence in their swings delivering about 70 seats to the ruling combination.
This year it is expected that TN will swing the ADMK way and AP will give a fractured verdict. So in the number game, it appears that UP will have a larger say in the 2009 govt. This is only an opinion.
Between lines it is no secret that every BJP supporter (in this forum) wants to know about the possibilities of the revival of BJP in UP.
April 1, 2009 at 3:05 PM
The common format is not applicable in UP, because there is no frame of NDA and main opponent, unlike other states. In most opf the seats it is three cornered, in some it is four cornered also. However there are also few seats with direct contests and even five cornered contests.
So each seat requires special treatment keeping in conjuction with the surrounding area seats.
Well! I am starting this analysis on a very good date. The day started with a good news from nowhere else other than capital of UP. Today morning I read the great news of Supreme Court disallowing Sanjay Dutt to contest from LS elections. I was really very concerned about Lucknow seat. No candidate could won against him from BJP. Now no candidate can defeat BJP in Lucknow. Now Advaniji taking from LUCKNOW is no more required.
Now coming to the structured analysis:
I will start from
WEstern UP – Rohilkhand- Central Terai region covering Saharanpur, Meerut, Moradabad, Bareilly, Aligarh & Agra divisions.
This region covers LS 32 seats
Out of this 32 seats, 5 LS seats are SC reserved: Nagina, Bulandshahr, Hathras, Agra, Shahjahanpur.
In the remaining 27 seats, in 60% of them i.e. 16 seats there is atleast one Muslim candidate from SP, BSP or Congress+. In at least 6 seats, there are two Muslim candidates. Even the Muslim candidates from Congress are strong in this region to cut into Muslim votes.
Polling will be held in IV & V phase in this region. BJP alliance has announced 26 candidates so far and 6 seats are remaining. BSP has announced candidates in all seats. SP has left 2 seats: Ghaziabad and Mathura for Congress, in remaining 30 seats they have annouced candidates. Congress has announced candidates in more than half LS seats and likely to support some smaller groups, Muslim leaders in some seats.
One very good thing, in Saharanpur,Moradabad, Bareilly, Aligarh Divisions and adjoining Meerut, Bulandshahr, Kannauj, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur-Kheri, Sitapur seats totaling 24 seats: BSP has not fielded any Brahmin candidate and put up 7 Muslims. While BJP has already stood 3 Brahmins and likely to add one more Brahmin from any of 6 remaining seats.
Out of 26 announced candidates, BJP-RLD had carved a very nice caste combination. Out of 5 SC seats one is given to a Jatav (ashok Pradhan from Bulandshahr) and remaining four are given to various non-Jatav SCs.
In remaining, there are 4 Brahmins (+1 or 2= 5 or 6 is expected in unannounced seats), 4 Thakurs, 2 Baniyas,1 Punjabi, 3 Jats (+1=4 is expected in unannounced seats), 1 Gujjar, 3 OBCs (1 or 2 more to be added) and 1 Muslim – Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi from Rampur
April 1, 2009 at 7:02 PM
But Dear Arun(NationFirst), I have to State here that AP Leaders Never ever Demanded Lion’s Share in The Cabinet.
in UF Govt.s too, TDP had only 3-4 nominees and none of them had Bulk Portfolios. Only Jaipal Reddy of Janata Dal(Then Unfractured), A Rajya Sabha MP enjoyed The High Profile Information and Broadcasting Ministry.
In Atalji’s Cabinet There was NO Cabinet Rank Minister from AP and in The UPA Gov. too, AP didnt get it’s due share.
But, The Dravidian Parties with The Exception of MDMK have shown their lust for power.
PMK would have been an insignificant party, but thanks to the politics of greed and blackmailing, anbumani ramadoss created a ruckus during Anti Reservation Protests as health minister and acted as AIMMS Minister and earned the rebuke of Supreme Court, the way he handled Dr. P. VenuGopal’s Issue.
DMK Threatened to withdraw support if The Shipping Ministry was Not Alloted to it.
AIADMK is NO Different, day in and day out she threatened Vaajpayee’s Government!!!
April 1, 2009 at 7:29 PM
Raj,
You got it wrong on ADMK. Jaya will not allow anyone of her MPs to become ministers. Even in State ministry no one continues in the same ministry for more than 2 years. She deals with Iron hand. Even if she join the centre, it would be outside support.
In 1998 she was a very amature politician and had PM ambitions. Today she is much better than most of the jokers in Indian politics.
April 1, 2009 at 8:50 PM
Lalu and Amar Singh are no. one joker.
April 1, 2009 at 10:22 PM
I Admit Arun, but in ’98 She Wanted fame for All Wrong Reasons.
None Troubled Atal Ji more than Jaya and George Fernandez Also acted as Minister for Jaya Affairs.
She Earned Rebuke from Every one during that Period.
That was The Chance BJP Mised.
Had BJP Gone Alone in AP and TN Then, by now BJP would have been A Stiff challenge in both these States.
April 1, 2009 at 10:56 PM
NDTV surprisingly has given 30 to NDA and 10 to UPA in Bihar.
Finally all news channels are seeing the writing on the wall!!!
April 2, 2009 at 12:53 AM
10 seats to UPA in Bihar is too much too.
RJD-LJP ill get Only 5+1 seats in Bihar
April 2, 2009 at 3:24 AM
I think who forms next Govt will depend on whom UP votes in,
If Mayawati gets 45+ seats, She has good chance of becoming PM
If SP retains its 39 seats, it will form govt with Congress.
If BJP retains its old glory (52) or even comes close 35+ , it will form the next govt.
This is the most unpredicatable state.
April 2, 2009 at 4:41 AM
But, going by The Latest Developments, there seems to be Mistrust and acrimony between SP and Congress and mayawati in order to woo muslim vote has driven Back The Upper Caste Votes to BJP by invoking NSA against Varun.
so, in UP, BJP Will certainly Win over 30 Seats and with allies around 35
April 2, 2009 at 12:34 PM
Hi AK,
If Mayawati gets 80 seats in UP, in that case Mayawati can not be PM. Tell me who will support Mayawati and Why.
April 2, 2009 at 12:35 PM
Hi,
BJP will get 25 to 35 seats in UP.
April 2, 2009 at 1:02 PM
Well continuing with the analysis on UP:
Saharanpur Division & Moradabad Divisions
will vote in V phase 13 May
9 LS seats, namely
Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnore, Nagina (SC), Sambhal, Moradabad, Rampur, Amroha.
In 3 seats: Kairana, Sambhal, Amroha – both SP & BSP have fielded Muslim candidates.
In 2 seats : Moradabad & Bijnore seats SP or BSP have fielded Muslims respectively and also Congress has also fielded strong Muslim candidates in here (Moradabad – Md. Azharuddin, former cricketer; Bijnore – Saiduzzaman, former MP) , thus 2 prominent Muslims in both these seats.
In 3 seats there is atleast one Muslim candidate from SP or BSP or Congress. They are:
Saharanpur – Qazi Rasheed Massood (SP), sitting MP
Muzaffarnagar – Kadfir Rana (BSP), sitting MLA
Rampur – Begum Noor Bano (Congress), former MP – 3 times
Only in one seat Nagina there is no Muslim candidate as it is reserved for SCs. However, the % of Muslim voters varies here from 30%-50% in all seats.
Now taking on seat by seat analysis:
S. No. 1 – SAHARANPUR : This seat is at the extreme north west corner of UP adjoining Uttarakhand in north (Dehradun dist.) and east (Haridwar dist.) and bordering Haryana (Ambala dist.)in the west and joined with UP from south
Party candidates
Congress is insignificant here.
(SP)- Qazi Rasheed Massood , sitting MP
(BSP)- Jagdish Rana, sitting MLA of SP crossed over to BSP
BJP-RLD:not announced
BJP-RLD To announce the candidate yet, but it is decided they will field a Saini OBC candidate, the party BJP or RLD who will contest has to be decided. In BJP-RLD pact, 7 seats were alloted to RLD, but later Sitapur seat which was alloted to RLD , BJP put its own candidate because of the candidates from other parties RLD gave back the seat to BJP. Now, BJP has to allot one alternative seat to RLD, Saharanpur may be that one, has to be decided.
This seat has approx. 30% Muslims.
SP had put sitting MP Muslim candidate who will get majority of Muslim votes but they are no SP’s Yadav and Lodh votes here; so no additional support.
While BSP will get most Dalit votes but not much Muslim votes. However BSP has fielded a Thakur candidate.
BJP has its sitting Thakur MLA from Saharanpur city assembly seat Raghav Lakhan Pal Singh, who is very popular and bring a good share of Thakur votes to BJP-RLD despite BSP’s Thakur candidate.
S. No. 2 – KAIRANA : Both SP and BSP has fielded Muslims here.
Congress is insignificant here.
(SP)- Saran Massod, a Muslim Gujjar
(BSP)- Tabassum Beg, wife of sitting Muzaffarnagar MP of SP Munawwar Alam who died recently in an road accident
(BJP)- Ch. Hukum Singh Gujjar, sitting MLA from Kairana Assembly seat, several time winner senior BJP leader and Deputy leader of BJP legislative party in UP assembly.
This seat has approx. 40% Muslim votes. Muslim votes may divide b/n SP-BSP, but major portion will go to SP because among Muslims majority is Gujjars and SP candidate is a Muslim Gujjar. But no additional support for SP bcoz almost nil Yadav and Lodh voters here.
BSP is likely to get majority of 15% Dalits and a small portion of Muslim votes bcoz of sympathy factor.
BJP is likely to get all Hindu votes except most Dalit votes in absence of any other prominent Hindu candidate.
S. No. 3 – MUZAFFARNAGAR : Asia’s largest Jaggery (Gur)market is located here. The sugar cane farmers have an important role in the politics here, who are angry with BSP govt. over arrest of Mahendra SIngh Tikait od Bhariya Kisan Union, last year and traditional supporters of RLD.
Congress- Harendra Mallick, a sitting MLA
(SP)- Thakur Sangeet Singh Som
(BSP)- Kadir Rana, sitting MLA of RLD crossed over to BSP
(RLD)- Ms. Anuradha Chaudhary, sitting MP from Kairana won last time by over 3 lakh votes – the highest margin in all UP and no.2 in RLD after Ch. Ajit Singh.
This seat has approx. 30% Muslim votes.
Most of Muslim votes will go to BSP . It will also get 15% Dalits. So, BSP can get 35%-40% votes
SP is likely to get Thakur and a small portion of Muslim votes, around 10%-15% votes total.
Congress candidate is a Jat but in front of Anuradha Chaudhary of RLD, he would not be able to get much Jat votes. He can can get from 5%-10% votes total. Has Congress stood any upper caste- Baniya or Brahmin it would have taken away BJP’s urban & upper caste vote in absence of BJP candidate as RLD is contesting here, now they will go to RLD along with almost total rally of Jat farmers rural votes.
BJP is likely to get all Hindu votes except most Dalit votes in absence of any other prominent Hindu candidate.
(To be continued in next post)
April 2, 2009 at 2:34 PM
(Contd.)
4. BIJNORE :
Congress – Saiduzzama, former MP
(SP)- Earlier Kartar S. Bhadana then replaced by Madan Chauhan. Now he is also cancelled and no announcement yet.
(BSP)- Shahid Siddiqui, Rajya Sabha MP of SP crossed over to BSP
(BJP-RLD)- Likely to be given to BKD’s Rakesh Tikait son of Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Ch. Mahendra Singh Tikait.
One third voters are Muslims here and 15-17% Dalits.
BSP likely to get most Muslim but Cong & SP will also take some Muslim votes.
Congress’s Muslim candidate will not damage BJP-RLD but SP will take some portion of non-Dalit Hindu votes around 50% and leaving most of them to BKD supported by BJP-RLD.
5. NAGINA : It is reserved for SCs newly created seat.
Congress – insignificant here
(BSP)- Ram Kishan Singh
(RLD)- Munshi Ram Pal, sitting MP from Bijnore (SC)
(SP)- The Samajwadi Party has changed the party candidate from Nagina (reserved) Lok Sabha seat and now Yashveer Singh would be the new candidate.
The announcement of the name of Yashveer Singh, who recently joined the party leaving Ajit Singh led Rashtriya Lok Dal(RLD), was made by party state president Shivpal Singh Yadav on the directives of party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Recently, Yashveer had revolted against the RLD leadership following the BJP-RLD alliance in the coming Lok Sabha elections in UP.
Earlier, the party had announced the name of Manoj Paras as the SP candidate from Nagina(SC) seat in Western UP.
In this seat, one-third are Muslim votes, likely to be divided among BSP & SP with BSP upper hand.
The 25% dalit votes in this SC reserved seat are likely to be divided three way and other candidates, with BSP getting half of them.
The upper caste and Jat votes will go to RLD solid. The RLD has agood record of winning SC reserved seats in Jatland of Western UP.
5. Moradabad :
(BSP)- Rajiv Channa, sitting BJP MLA from Moradabad West, who crossed to BSP recently to contest LS election.
(Congress)- Mohd. Azharuddin, former cricketer
(SP)- Haji Rizwan
(BJP)- Kunwar Sarvesh Singh
The fight is primarily between BJP & SP.
With 35% + Muslim votes here, are likely to go SP traditionally but presence of celebrity Muslim candidate from Congress will also attract many Muslim votes.
Most of 15% dalits and part of 5 % Punjabi may go with BSP, being a Punjabi candidate.
April 2, 2009 at 7:04 PM
Can a south indian and a tainted one like azharuddin create any majic in UP?he cant even speak Hindi properly, he just utters urdu and his accent too is typical Hyderabadi.
April 3, 2009 at 10:42 PM
Me thinks that this guy (Priyanka’s father-in-law has some info on the ITALIAN gang and he was trying to expose before elections.)
—————————————————————–
Priyanka’s father-in-law found dead
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi … 356528.cms
NEW DELHI: Rajendra Vadra, father of Robert Vadra, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s husband, was found dead at a guest house in Yusuf Sarai area on Friday. A source requesting anonymity claimed that it was suspected to be a case of suicide as Vadra was found with an ironing chord around his neck. Police officials, off the record, initially said the death was caused by a heart attack, but later clammed up. No official statement was forthcoming from either the family or the police.
Vadra’s body was found by a room attendant at around 9.30 am in City Inn, where he had been staying for the last fortnight. His body was taken to Safdarjung Hospital and a post mortem conducted. Sources within the hospital claimed that there were injury marks around the neck, but declined to be quoted. Neither the police, nor hospital authorities divulged any details about the cause of death.
Vadra, who was in his 60s, was reportedly alone at the time of his death. His body was cremated at the Lodhi Road Crematorium on Friday afternoon in the presence of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka and his son Robert, along with other family and friends. Rahul left early for campaigning in Bihar while the others stayed on with the family. The family of the deceased refused to speak to the media about the incident. The police declined to comment on whether an inquest would be conducted into the allegations of suicide.
Vadra was reportedly undergoing treatment for cirrhosis of the liver and severe diabetes at Max Hospital. He was staying at the guest house even though he owned a house in New Friend’s Colony.
About eight years ago, Robert Vadra had issued a public notice stating that his father, Rajender, and brother, Richard, were “duping” people by promising jobs at the Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee and other favours. Rajendra later threatened to file a defamation suit against his son. In an interview, he had also expressed displeasure at Robert’s marriage with Priyanka.
Rajendra was a resident of Civil Lines area of Moradabad and ran a brass and wood handicrafts business. Robert’s brother, Richard Vadra was also found dead in mysterious circumstances in September 2003 at his Vasant Vihar residence, and his sister Michelle died in a car accident in 2001.
While the Vadra family claimed to be a supporter of the Congress Party, Rajendra’s older brother Om Prakash had donated his property to a trust in Moradabad, some members of which are affiliated with RSS. A school still stands on that land. The family is originally from Sialkot, Pakistan, and Rajendra’s father moved to India at the time of partition.
April 4, 2009 at 11:14 AM
Come on Raj!
U are an intelligent person, I don’t expect u to ask such questions about Azharuddin prospects.
1) Unlike Hindus, Muslims do not consider themselves divided like North Indian South Indian, etc. The one of the many things I like about Muslims that they do consider themselves brother and sisters through out the world. Even if there is something happening against Muslims in as far as Somalia, Palestine, Manipur, Gujarat, there is sharp reaction throughout.
Unforntunately, we Hindus are horizontally and vertically divided on region, languages, caste, community always and we hardly care for our brethern facing attrocities in Kashmir, North-East, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia elsewhere. We need to learn from them. Good things should should always be taken no matter the source.
That is way I highly value my 13 years staying at Aligarh Muslim University and has high regards for this great Institution.
2) Muslims by and large in Indian sub-continent know and speak Urdu, no matter they are in Sindh Pakistan, Karnataka, Assam, Hyderabad, Marathwada even Bangladesh, ascent may vary. In Muslim community knowing, speaking and writing Urdu is considered to be highly respectable.
Unlike Hindus where we feel proud to read Engish newspapers, watch English movies and listen to English TV channels and gave a damn to Hindi and our rich other regional language heritage and totally discard Sanskrit education. I really feel very sad when most of the new generations of Punjabi, Sindhi and other regional Indian language speaking communities are not able to properly speak and not at all read and write their mother tongue.
3) And about Azharuddin’s image as ……… due to his involvement in match fixing case. Do you really think it will prevent Muslims voting for him, when SP, Congress, Ram Vilas Paswan, CPM using lookalikes and masks of Osama Bin Laden, Saddan Hussain for attracting Muslims and nominating people like Coimbatore blasts accused Abdul Nassar Madani for LS elections.
Now, I think u will agree a large no. of around 40% Muslims in Moradabad LS seat will flock to Md. Azharuddin, Congress candidate. Thus he will divide the en-bloc solid Muslim support of SP candidate Haji Rizwan. SP’s Muslim candidate (earlier Janta Dal in 1991)has always won this seat in last 20 years barring 1998.
However in such situation BSP will be squeezed and BJP will attract most of the Hindu votes and won this seat this time comfortably.
April 4, 2009 at 2:59 PM
oh my Goodness!!!!
I never thought that.
so azhar being a hyderabadi is NOT An Issue there?
so, for these muslims local, non local too isnt an issue.
uh?
As You said, Hum Hinduon ko Bhi Ab Jaagna Padega.
Aakhir kab tak Hum aapas mein ladte rahenge
April 4, 2009 at 5:46 PM
Hi,
Osama Bin Laden fights election from any seat of India. Muslim will cast vote to Osama.
April 4, 2009 at 6:32 PM
BJP is to come out with an Ad that is going to leave India shaking!!! Wait and Watch!!! This black and white avd will leave the opposition pissing!!!
April 5, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Brother of Amar Singh, a Congress leader and another SP leader joins BJP
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Amar-Singhs-brother-SP-leader-join-BJP-/articleshow/4359841.cms
There will be some vote transfer from Congress & SP to BJP. As little as 3-4% will additional 10-15 seats to BJP.
April 6, 2009 at 6:22 PM
@Meshak,
Please refrain from calling names to people. Keep your self reasonable.
@Raj
Cool down boss. Everybody is entitled to their opinion, we can not shut every mouth. Let us do our discussion and ignore the foul people.
April 6, 2009 at 6:26 PM
Chakresh Bhai, I am A Die Hard Nationalist.
Actually, our Family was Pro-Congress. During Narasimha Rao’s Time, my Parents and All our Relatives voted for Congress. But, ev er since this italian and her impostor son have took over, my Blood Is Boiling.
April 6, 2009 at 6:28 PM
In this matter, I am on lucky side, My family is voter of BJP and before that they used to vote for JanSangh
April 6, 2009 at 6:37 PM
But,in the last decade (since ’98 General Elections), Our Family Turned to BJP
April 8, 2009 at 5:48 PM
जागो हिन्दुओं अब तो जागो और BJP को वोट दो
जात पात छोडो और बीजेपी को वोट दो
April 8, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Guys,
Y no feedback on the new advt.?
I thought everyone would be impressed
April 8, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Once again link for benefit
April 8, 2009 at 6:26 PM
I have watched That Arun Bhai and is Really Good!!!!!!
Like The Concept too!!!!
April 8, 2009 at 8:59 PM
Awesome ad… It is great. Is it being shown on TV?
Narendra Modi rips Arnab Goswami of Times TV.
Please watch and spread the news…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mivzJCgD490&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5GQiCDwEsI&feature=related
April 8, 2009 at 11:16 PM
Dear All,
Hereunder is the revelation concotted and fabricated story of false and vested Opinion Poll by NDTV about Orissa which is contradicted by local news channel .
Bindra Karat behind Naveen’s good show on TV polls!
By Anurjay Dhal
Last updated: 04/08/2009 15:39:31
Text Font Size: S- / S+
Naven Patnaik, Orissa CM (left) BRinda Karat (right)
Latest Orissa Headlines
Opinion Poll
Bhubaneswar (Orissa): After conspiring to break the 11-year alliance and then striking deal, the Communist Party of India (Marxists) went further ahead while using a private TV channel to show Naveen Patnaik’s popularity in the wake of his divorce with the BJP, what the left comrades perceives as communal and divisive forces.
CPI (M) Politibureau member Bindra Karat, who studied with Naveen at The Doon’s during their childhood days, played a key role in the poll survey, sources said.
Interestingly, the TV channel, which forecast Naveen’s BJD is all set to form the Government in record straight for third time, is owned by sister of Ms Karat. Bindra’s sister is Radhika Roy, wife of Pranaya Roy, who owns NDTV. Bindra is wife of CPI (M) General secretary Prakash Karat.
The twist further added fuel with reports that another CPI (M) politibureau member Sitaram Yechury is attending a joint press conference hosted by NCP and BJD at Naveen Niwas this evening.
Naveen Patnaik and NCP chief Sharad Pawar are expected to address as many four joint public meetings at Balasore and Jajpur districts of the State.
The second phase efforts to gather support for a sinking Third Front came just a day after the TV channel forecast a landslide victory for the BJD led alliance.
While BJD’s BJ Panda (Jaya), who is close to both Mr and Ms Roy of NDTV, also got due share in the poll survey.
The survey predicted Jaya Panda could win Kendrapara Lok Sabha seat. “Those, who conduct survey, they might not aware about the ground realities in the wake of the split,” a senior Kendrapara based scribe said adding joining of few BJD and former Janata Dal leaders into BJP, has changed the whole equation.
No doubt, BJD is front-runner, but the study clearly pointing out a handiwork of CPI (M) with green signal from BJD chief. It was the CPI (M), which first patrolled at Naveen Niwas few hours after BJP pull out from Government on March 7.
The NDTV survey says Naveen as ‘most popular choice’ in Orissa. No doubt at all, but Naveen’s own Intelligence and Special Branch officials apprehending a repeat of 1995. His Biju Patnaik lost the battle against Congress veteran JB Patnaik after striking a deal with the Left Forces.
Most significant fact was that, the survey shows, at least 85% people in Orissa believe that the 10-year long BJD rule in Orissa has done enough on development sectors like power, road and water. It did not mentioned BJP’s performance at all. Since last one decade, Naveen was a running coalition not BJD’s ship alone.
In terms of numbers, the BJD and its allies may get 82 of the 147 assembly seats leaving behind Congress with just 48 while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at a distant third with just 14 seats, according to the survey, where as officials here are predicting 50-55(at best 65) seats for the regional outfit.
Though in some aspects the BJD Government performance lacks behind, especially in generating more employment he survey put it in 42:51 ratio, the present break up in the 11-year-long ties with BJP may go in favour of BJD. Orissa is going for elections in two phases, on April 26 and 23. Let’s see, who is right and who wrong.
Naveen’s own Intelligence and Special Branch officials apprehending a repeat of 1995. His Biju Patnaik lost the battle against Congress veteran JB Patnaik after striking a deal with the Left Forces.
Most significant fact was that, the survey shows, at least 85% people in Orissa believe that the 10-year long BJD rule in Orissa has done enough on development sectors like power, road and water. It did not mentioned BJP’s performance at all. Since last one decade, Naveen was a running coalition not BJD’s ship alone.
In terms of numbers, the BJD and its allies may get 82 of the 147 assembly seats leaving behind Congress with just 48 while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at a distant third with just 14 seats, according to the survey, where as officials here are predicting 50-55(at best 65) seats for the regional outfit.
Though in some aspects the BJD Government performance lacks behind, especially in generating more employment the survey put it in 42:51 ratio, the present break up in the 11-year-long ties with BJP may go in favour of BJD.
Orissa is going for elections in two phases, on April 26 and 23. Let’s see, who is right and who wrong.
http://www.odishatoday.com/politics/Bindra_Karat_behind_Naveen_080409-8754210232659864751230.html
April 9, 2009 at 9:16 AM
The Never Deliver True Version is NOT Viewed By Majority of People.
And amongst Those Who Watch that channel, Most of us are BJP Supporters.
therefore, why give importance to those fools?
April 9, 2009 at 9:18 AM
Awesome Videos, and Thank For Sharing The Links Maoj Bhai.
The Media is Acting like congress aggent and it seems the media’s only purpose is to prevent NDA from forming government.
ofcourse, The Popular Vernacular Media is Not such.And Fortunately, Most of The People prefer watching Vernacular Media and Read Vernacular Press
April 11, 2009 at 1:21 AM
Modi on CNN- IBN about Hindutva.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMwulbJKcmA
Watch and enjoy
April 11, 2009 at 8:24 AM
I am Happy, He Boldly Stated That Media is Biased and Didnt STOP There, He also used A Powerful Term, “News Traders” for These Media Houses, He also stated “Probably, The Media Doesnt Criticize upa as They would Lose Their Bread”
April 11, 2009 at 8:52 AM
Hi Raj,
Congress is paying huge money to media. It is completly true. That is why media is speaking in favour of Congress.
April 12, 2009 at 3:51 AM
Become a Kashmir Terrorist for Islam in India and Get Pension from Indian Government but not Indian soldiers.
Watch and spread the
April 12, 2009 at 4:47 AM
Star News-Nielsen Opinion Poll Predictions:
UPA – 203, NDA – 191, Third Front – 104, Lalu-Mulayam-Paswan-PRP – 39, Others – 6.
Congress – 155
BJP – 147
Left Front – 35
Samajwadi Party – 28
BSP – 26
JD (U) – 22
DMK – 15
TDP – 13
TMC – 13
NCP – 11
SS – 9
BJD – 9
AIADMK – 9
State-wise Results, as per Star News-Nielsen Opinion Poll:
Uttar Pradesh: UPA – 7, NDA – 19, BSP – 26, SP – 28
Maharashtra: UPA – 27, NDA – 21
West Bengal: UPA – 20, Third Front – 22
Tamil Nadu: UPA – 25, Third Front – 14
Andhra Pradesh: UPA -24, Third Front – 17
Mandhya Pradesh: UPA – 5 NDA – 24
Chhattisgarh: UPA – 2, NDA – 9
Karnataka: UPA – 8, NDA – 18, Third Front – 2
Gujartat: NDA – 18, UPA – 8
Rajasthan: UPA – 15, NDA – 10
Bihar: NDA – 29, UPA – 1, RJD-LJP – 10
Jharkhand: NDA – 9, UPA – 5
Orissa: UPA – 9, NDA – 3, Third Front (BJD) – 9
Kerala: UPA – 11, Third Front – 9
Assam: UPA – 3, NDA – 9, Third Front – 1
Punjab: UPA – 5, NDA – 8
Haryana: UPA – 6, NDA – 3, Third Front – 1
Delhi: UPA – 6, NDA – 1
J&K: UPA – 3, NDA – 1, PDP-Ind – 2
Himachal Pradesh: UPA – 1, NDA – 3
Uttarakhand: UPA – 2, NDA 3
Goa: UPA – 1, NDA – 1
http://www.greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=14479&cat=15&scat=39
2 weeks back Star TV gave 250 to UPA. Now it is 203.
They are already down by 47.
25 to UPA in TN… They are in for a shock of their life.
Gujarat 8 to UPA? Let them get 5 first… We will see
Karnataka … 8? Cross 4 first …
Rajasthan’s new news is going to tough for UPA…
AP … 24? I saw Rahul’s trip there… Hope that goes to 10 to 15…
maha … 27? make it -7
Ap … 24 may be -7
Karnataka and Gujarat 8 each? … may be -4 each
TN 25? may be -10 to -15
April 12, 2009 at 5:54 AM
Hello starnews, are you day dreaming?
congress getting 155?
dmk getting 15? ncp –11?
seriously, even dmk ministers are having a feel that they would have to draw a blank and can at the most win 2-3 MP seats.
NCP can retain a maximum of one seat.
in addition to Double Anti-incumbency in Maharashtra, there is Mutual distrust between the party cadres of ncp and inc. Shiv Sena only 9?
umn..
whatz wrong with star news?
April 12, 2009 at 5:59 AM
In Maharashtra and Haryana upa winning is absolute stupidity.
how can they even think that in Maharashtra it would be upa sweep?
when even in last elections, upa lost in maharashtra?
this time, there is severe anger in Maharashtra against upa
how come against BJP-HLD(R) alliance congress can even think of winning a single seat. It would be Repition of ’99 when congress drew a blank.
without alliance which seat in Bihar can congress win?And winning 24 seats in AP is Another Non Sense.
Congress will draw a blank in all 17 constituencies in Telangana.
and it is unreasonable to think, it would win in 24 out of 25 parliamentary seats in rest of AP.
In Karnataka, congress can at the most win 3 seats
April 12, 2009 at 6:02 AM
In TN, Congress is drawing a Blank.And Rajasthan and Delhi, they are basing on Assembly polls, they should first take congnisance of the fact of what happened in ’98 Assembly and ’99 Lok Sabha Polls
States where congress would draw a Blank : Bihar,Haryana,TamilNadu,Delhi,Jharkhand.
In Gujarat,Karnataka,UP < 5
April 12, 2009 at 8:28 AM
Hi Raj,
For BJP+
In UP 19+10
Rajasthan 10+10
Maharashtra 21+10
in (WB+Kerala+TN+AP) = ) +10
Reaming India Present seat showed by Star News + 30
It means BJP + will get 191 + 70 =261
In the very—-very worst case it would not be less than 230.
It is my conclusion.
April 12, 2009 at 8:55 AM
Hi ,
This is Sudarsan from TN.I don’t think DMK alliance can even win more than 5 seats in TN.Itz AIADMK sweep .Admk allianc excluding commies will be 28 to 30 and they will support BJP for sure if they are just short of majority .
Even Karunanidhi don’t believe DMK getting 15 seats
April 12, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Yes Dear Sudarshan.
karunanidhi got so scared of Su Thirunavakarasar that as BJP Decided to Nominate Him(Yet to be Officially Announced), karunanidhi replaced, subbalakshmi jagadesan with an upcoming actor.
I Wish DMK Loses Central Chennai too
April 12, 2009 at 12:54 PM
Who are they fooling with this kind of fabricated surveys?Who they want to influence?While there are many big states from where BJP is likely to gain a major share of seats let these surveyors name atleast one major state where congress can expect major gains?What congress can hope now is from left ruled states and few seats from Rajasthan.
April 12, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Hi,
I do not think congres can get more than 4 seats from Rajasthan. Reason is very simple
1. No inner fighting in BJP
2. Jats, Meenas an Gujjars are supporting BJP.
April 13, 2009 at 7:23 PM
Hello…
Any one with links to BJP, Please convey them this message.
BJP should strongly point to people in UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Bengal, Kerala that if they oppose CON party, they should definitely oppose COMMIES, SP, RJD. In the end, all these thieves are in together. A vote for any of these theives is a VOTE for CON party. The COMMIES split with CON party just to play this game.
I don’t think BJP is strongly bringing this issue up. You have to clear the confusion among people.
April 13, 2009 at 8:50 PM
ofcourse Manoj Bhai, None of The Anti Congress Man in These States will Vote for left,rjd,sp
April 14, 2009 at 2:40 PM
There is yet another surprising survey and analysis by Aajtak.48% voters want UPA back in the government?Is the survey intentionally limited to congress pockets?
April 14, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Without Doubt, Vishnu Bhai.
Thatz A Big Joke.
Aajtak has A Trackrecord of siding with The Ruling Party to get The Award of Best News Channel.
April 14, 2009 at 2:51 PM
If 48% of People want congress government, congress should be getting close to what they got in ’84. Because, in ’84, congress recieved 49.04% of Popular Vote.
Are They MAKING FOOLS OUT OF THEMSELVES?
April 16, 2009 at 8:27 PM
Any feedback from polls yesterday?… Guys? any one?
April 17, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Varun wave is going to sweep next 3 phases of poll in UP.
http://www.ndtv.com/news/india/varun_will_behave_now_says_rajnath.php
And as Varun made his way from Etah Jail to Agra airport, it was clear that his stint in jail has only made him a bigger martyr to the saffron cause in the eyes of the BJP’s rank and file and other Hindu organisations.
Now I am confident BJP will get 30+ seats in UP.
April 20, 2009 at 10:15 PM
pLEASE VOTE FOR BJP SINCE IT IS THE ONLY DISCIPLINED PARTY, AT PRESENT JUNCTURE
April 23, 2009 at 12:48 AM
I returned from a brief trip to Himachal, and Congress seems to have a clear edge there.
BJP is definitely out in HP. They may manage only 1 seat there, if any.
April 23, 2009 at 9:58 AM
Ambar STFU.
you are Lunatic and die hard fan of italian trash
April 28, 2009 at 3:58 PM
UPA only can form Government in strong. Hence any party selected for MP seat, they will be finally support UPA. Hence all may vote for UPA.
April 28, 2009 at 4:24 PM
Hey Venkat, have you run away from A Mental Assylum.
have Sense and make Sense.
April 28, 2009 at 5:52 PM
Just see Venkat and realize that UPA is full of people like him: incoherent, unintelligent and clueless. We voted out NDA , UPA ran the ship rudderless for 5 years. Terrorism everywhere, Quatrtrochi’s account de-freezed and now was marked off red alert list, economic mismanagement with no infrastructure growth and planning, CBI becoming Congress Bureau of Investigation, Abdul Kalam disrespected and kicked out by anti-Indian Sonia. Let us soundly defeat this despotic, corrupt regime and send them to where they belong: ITALY
April 28, 2009 at 7:48 PM
@ Venkat
It is very simple, If NDA – UPA > 30 , NDA forms Govt.
If UPA – NDA > 30 , UPA forms govt…
Others will join after getting their share, they don’t care about ideology…
April 28, 2009 at 8:01 PM
@ Amber,
Regarding HP.
This is my state so I can give u some insights.
4 Seats
1> Hamirpur : BJP – This is one of 10-15 seats across India, BJP has not lost for last 5 elections. The reason being this is by far the most literate and educated constituency. 100 % literacy, Huge development done by BJP leader Dr Jagdev Thakkur. Chief Minister Prof Prem Kumar Dumal’s Constituency. BJP won 4/5 seats in Assembly polls. Even when it lost all 3 seats in 1999 , they retained this seat.
2> Kangra : BJP – 90% – Again a high profile constituency of former Union Minister and Former Chief Minister Shanta Kumar. This time though he is not contesting ,still BJP is far ahead. BJP traditionally does better than Congress in lower Himachal.
3> Shimla : Advantage Congress – This has been traditionally congress bastion just voted BJP once in 1999.
Constituency of former CM of Congress Virbhadra Singh, Raja of Rampur.
4> Mandi: 50-50 – Once it was congress bastan when Sukh Ram was in Congress, since his parting ways and BJP gaining strenght subsequently.
Verdict BJP 2.5 Congress 1.5
April 29, 2009 at 3:48 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
May 1, 2009 at 1:20 AM
i think bjp will 20 seats in up by itself.
May 1, 2009 at 1:51 AM
this is my prediction for 2009 generel elections
1.state 2.total no of seats 3.seats likely to get by BJP.4 seats likely to get by BJP+ 5 seats likely to get by congress.6 congress+ 7 others
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
u.p 80 18 04 7 0 51
bihar 40 10 20 1 0 09
gujrat 26 18 0 08 0 0
m.p 29 21 0 08 0 0
rajasthan 25 13 0 12 0 0
delhi 07 03 0 04 0 0
jharkhand 14 08 01 03 02 0
chatishgarh 11 08 00 03 0 0
uttaranchal. 05 03 0 02 0 0
orissa 21 04 0 08 0 9
punjab 13 03 06 04 0 0
h.p 04 03 0 01
hariyana 10 03 03 04 0 0
goa 2 1 1 0 0
maharas. 48 13 12 13 10 0
kerala 20 0 0 11 02 07
karnataka 28 18 0 07 0 03
a.p 42 02 0 22 0 18
tamilnadu+
pondicherry 40 01 0 05 10 24
assam 14 05 03 04 0 02
n.e region 10 02 01 05 0 02
w.b. 42 01 0 08 13 20
j&k 06 01 0 01 02 02
i have no idea about union territories
May 1, 2009 at 9:01 AM
Purnendu, Good Estimation, but, I feel, in Delhi, BJP would Win A minimum of 5 and also in Rajasthan a Minimum of 15. In AP, I Wonder how even Post Polls, People are cautiousover Predicting The Seats in BJP’s tally.
BJP is likely to Win 5-7 from AP as per Post Poll Observers
May 1, 2009 at 3:28 PM
thanks raj bahi for your comments.i know a lot of things from you .i also think bjp may do better in delhi in comparison to assembly elections.now people will vote for monmohan vs advaniji and not shila vs malhotra.bjp proved this in 1999.manmohan was a respected person and has a image of great economist before he become pm.but after five years of upa term he lost his image as a economist and become a frasted person.so i think delhi voter will reject manmohan this time.
by saying he is not a orater he also send bad message to educated youths who are fan of him simply because of his ph.d from cambridge university.
now the question is if a person is not a orater then how he will manage freign policy.there you have to manage all the educated secretaries of foriegn states.if he is not a
orater then he is harmful for indian forign policy.
May 1, 2009 at 5:09 PM
Purnendu Bhai, it’s NOT Advani Ji vs manmohan as You are All Presuming.
It is Advani Ji vs Who?
as manmohan is NOT Accepted by UPA as PM. This the Respect manmohan commands from his cabinet colleagues
and Third Front — hahahahaha
they arent even sure who are the constituets of this thrid front
May 1, 2009 at 7:37 PM
I can tell you about Lucknow seat.Here total polling is only 36%.Heat is also big factor, this seat can probably go to BSP candidate Akhilesh Gupta.Although i pray this should go to bjp, but my mind is determind this will go in bsp kitty.reason is very simple….developement.there is no development, even when Shri Atal ji was PM too.ppl were faith on him.but this scene is not now.and current bjp candidate LALJI tondon is joker.he dont do anything.he is currently MLA for LKO west, where total polling is only 32%.he is only hoping ppl will give vote just becoz of ATAL ji.but ppl are not so fool.
but yes , Kanpur seat should go with BJP.
May 1, 2009 at 8:02 PM
@ ashutosh
I agree with you on both seats,
In Kanpur Stish Mahana is a very strong candidate and is going to win that seat.
Not so sure about Lucknow.
May 1, 2009 at 9:40 PM
How about other UP seats that went to poll in Phase3. Can anyone provide more details?
May 1, 2009 at 9:58 PM
IB reports submitted to the PM which have been leaked to the media suggests that BJP is at least 35 seats ahead of the INC.
May 2, 2009 at 12:36 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.
May 14, 2009 at 5:49 PM
Watch ap election results 2009 live here at
http://tv9kannadalive.blogspot.com/
http://tv9kannadalive.blogspot.com/
http://onlineelectionresults.blogspot.com/
http://online-election-results.blogspot.com/