Jun 18, 2008
Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
......... (1)
vijay (1)
May 14th, 2009 at 5:49 PM
Watch ap election results 2009 live here at
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May 2nd, 2009 at 12:36 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:58 PM
IB reports submitted to the PM which have been leaked to the media suggests that BJP is at least 35 seats ahead of the INC.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:40 PM
How about other UP seats that went to poll in Phase3. Can anyone provide more details?
May 1st, 2009 at 8:02 PM
@ ashutosh
I agree with you on both seats,
In Kanpur Stish Mahana is a very strong candidate and is going to win that seat.
Not so sure about Lucknow.
May 1st, 2009 at 7:37 PM
I can tell you about Lucknow seat.Here total polling is only 36%.Heat is also big factor, this seat can probably go to BSP candidate Akhilesh Gupta.Although i pray this should go to bjp, but my mind is determind this will go in bsp kitty.reason is very simple….developement.there is no development, even when Shri Atal ji was PM too.ppl were faith on him.but this scene is not now.and current bjp candidate LALJI tondon is joker.he dont do anything.he is currently MLA for LKO west, where total polling is only 32%.he is only hoping ppl will give vote just becoz of ATAL ji.but ppl are not so fool.
but yes , Kanpur seat should go with BJP.
May 1st, 2009 at 5:09 PM
Purnendu Bhai, it’s NOT Advani Ji vs manmohan as You are All Presuming.
It is Advani Ji vs Who?
as manmohan is NOT Accepted by UPA as PM. This the Respect manmohan commands from his cabinet colleagues
and Third Front — hahahahaha
they arent even sure who are the constituets of this thrid front
May 1st, 2009 at 3:28 PM
thanks raj bahi for your comments.i know a lot of things from you .i also think bjp may do better in delhi in comparison to assembly elections.now people will vote for monmohan vs advaniji and not shila vs malhotra.bjp proved this in 1999.manmohan was a respected person and has a image of great economist before he become pm.but after five years of upa term he lost his image as a economist and become a frasted person.so i think delhi voter will reject manmohan this time.
by saying he is not a orater he also send bad message to educated youths who are fan of him simply because of his ph.d from cambridge university.
now the question is if a person is not a orater then how he will manage freign policy.there you have to manage all the educated secretaries of foriegn states.if he is not a
orater then he is harmful for indian forign policy.
May 1st, 2009 at 9:01 AM
Purnendu, Good Estimation, but, I feel, in Delhi, BJP would Win A minimum of 5 and also in Rajasthan a Minimum of 15. In AP, I Wonder how even Post Polls, People are cautiousover Predicting The Seats in BJP’s tally.
BJP is likely to Win 5-7 from AP as per Post Poll Observers
May 1st, 2009 at 1:51 AM
this is my prediction for 2009 generel elections
1.state 2.total no of seats 3.seats likely to get by BJP.4 seats likely to get by BJP+ 5 seats likely to get by congress.6 congress+ 7 others
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
u.p 80 18 04 7 0 51
bihar 40 10 20 1 0 09
gujrat 26 18 0 08 0 0
m.p 29 21 0 08 0 0
rajasthan 25 13 0 12 0 0
delhi 07 03 0 04 0 0
jharkhand 14 08 01 03 02 0
chatishgarh 11 08 00 03 0 0
uttaranchal. 05 03 0 02 0 0
orissa 21 04 0 08 0 9
punjab 13 03 06 04 0 0
h.p 04 03 0 01
hariyana 10 03 03 04 0 0
goa 2 1 1 0 0
maharas. 48 13 12 13 10 0
kerala 20 0 0 11 02 07
karnataka 28 18 0 07 0 03
a.p 42 02 0 22 0 18
tamilnadu+
pondicherry 40 01 0 05 10 24
assam 14 05 03 04 0 02
n.e region 10 02 01 05 0 02
w.b. 42 01 0 08 13 20
j&k 06 01 0 01 02 02
i have no idea about union territories
May 1st, 2009 at 1:20 AM
i think bjp will 20 seats in up by itself.
April 29th, 2009 at 3:48 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
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Why forums are essential besides blog
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3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
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April 28th, 2009 at 8:01 PM
@ Amber,
Regarding HP.
This is my state so I can give u some insights.
4 Seats
1> Hamirpur : BJP – This is one of 10-15 seats across India, BJP has not lost for last 5 elections. The reason being this is by far the most literate and educated constituency. 100 % literacy, Huge development done by BJP leader Dr Jagdev Thakkur. Chief Minister Prof Prem Kumar Dumal’s Constituency. BJP won 4/5 seats in Assembly polls. Even when it lost all 3 seats in 1999 , they retained this seat.
2> Kangra : BJP – 90% – Again a high profile constituency of former Union Minister and Former Chief Minister Shanta Kumar. This time though he is not contesting ,still BJP is far ahead. BJP traditionally does better than Congress in lower Himachal.
3> Shimla : Advantage Congress – This has been traditionally congress bastion just voted BJP once in 1999.
Constituency of former CM of Congress Virbhadra Singh, Raja of Rampur.
4> Mandi: 50-50 – Once it was congress bastan when Sukh Ram was in Congress, since his parting ways and BJP gaining strenght subsequently.
Verdict BJP 2.5 Congress 1.5
April 28th, 2009 at 7:48 PM
@ Venkat
It is very simple, If NDA – UPA > 30 , NDA forms Govt.
If UPA – NDA > 30 , UPA forms govt…
Others will join after getting their share, they don’t care about ideology…
April 28th, 2009 at 5:52 PM
Just see Venkat and realize that UPA is full of people like him: incoherent, unintelligent and clueless. We voted out NDA , UPA ran the ship rudderless for 5 years. Terrorism everywhere, Quatrtrochi’s account de-freezed and now was marked off red alert list, economic mismanagement with no infrastructure growth and planning, CBI becoming Congress Bureau of Investigation, Abdul Kalam disrespected and kicked out by anti-Indian Sonia. Let us soundly defeat this despotic, corrupt regime and send them to where they belong: ITALY
April 28th, 2009 at 4:24 PM
Hey Venkat, have you run away from A Mental Assylum.
have Sense and make Sense.
April 28th, 2009 at 3:58 PM
UPA only can form Government in strong. Hence any party selected for MP seat, they will be finally support UPA. Hence all may vote for UPA.
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:58 AM
Ambar STFU.
you are Lunatic and die hard fan of italian trash
April 23rd, 2009 at 12:48 AM
I returned from a brief trip to Himachal, and Congress seems to have a clear edge there.
BJP is definitely out in HP. They may manage only 1 seat there, if any.
April 20th, 2009 at 10:15 PM
pLEASE VOTE FOR BJP SINCE IT IS THE ONLY DISCIPLINED PARTY, AT PRESENT JUNCTURE