by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 2nd, 2009 at 6:34 PM
Hi Arunji,
Really you are doing good job. We literate class should come out cast our vote.. then only we can make our country and heritage proud rather than doing only living room gossip about the country pity condition..
March 2nd, 2009 at 6:15 PM
Too much of praise Akji, i have done very little….
I would encourage BJP supporters to now join friends of bjp organisation in their respective area. It high time we go door to door and ensure a NDA govt. in 2009
March 2nd, 2009 at 6:09 PM
Great News Arun ji. Very well done. I feel satisfied as to have contributed in some meaningful way.
Thanks for taking this initiative. It is people like you, we are really hopeful will change the face of India
March 2nd, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Ajit Singh has just now formally joined the NDA… Deal done
March 2nd, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Thank You Arun Ji
March 2nd, 2009 at 11:33 AM
replace “i was” with “it was”.
It was so nice to see Mr. Arun Jaitleyji reading all the suggestions, i n front of my own eyes. If any of you get to see the video of the Pune, you will see Jaitelyji on stage reading a document with great amount of interest. I am trying to get the video, but i have not succeeded yet!!
March 2nd, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Guys,
Vikas, Raj, AK, Ritesh, Anil, Hari, Raja, Aditya i can say one thing for sure all your suggestions have met the ears of BJP. I did make a document of all the suggestions in the forum and gave the printout of the same to Shri. Arun Jaitelyji, in the friends of BJP meeting held in pune, The interaction session was planned for 100 people but it turned out to be a public meeting with over 2000 people turning up for the same, i could see the anger on congress of the all the persons who assembled there. With my influence inside the party I could hand out all suggestions in a printout document to Jaitleyji when he walked to the stage. He did not answer any of the questions from the public that day. But in the stage he was reading the document (I handed over) with great interest and once the meeting was over and when was leaving , he came to me and said ” i cannot give you any details to you, but your suggestions were interesting, you can write to me on all your thoughts”, saying so he handed our his card, which has his Phone number and personal Email address. He also asked me not to share it with anyone. He left with a big smile after giving me a handshake.
Even though i could not get answers from him, i was one of the very satisfying moments. I promise that all the best suggestion in the forum would be written to him.
March 2nd, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Thank You Arun, We are Eagerly Waiting to Hear from You.
March 2nd, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Guys,
There is some good news, just hold on, i am at work in office and type in detail the things that happened in the friendsofbjp meet
March 2nd, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Ritesh Ji, If Kalraj Mishra Contest from Kanpur, Then, The Brahmins and other Upper Caste votes would be Regalvanized for BJP irrespective of whom BSP would field.
Sri Kalraj Mishr is A Stronger Brahmin Leader then others.
March 2nd, 2009 at 12:54 AM
Dear hari,
IN AP you can make a minor change.
NDA(1 to 3) UPA (5 to 10) others(32) Eventually trs with 6 to 9 will suupport NDA but that would be post poll scenario. As per what Boys at TRS office are saying if TRS is crucial for TDP to form government then if required KCR Would force TDP to support NDA atleast from outside. Also Naidu wouldn’t have any option if Third front doesn’t materialize which we all should hope for.
March 1st, 2009 at 10:37 PM
Going by current trends the 2009 Lok Sabha results may be as follows.
STATE NDA UPA Othr Total
AP 03 18 21 42
Arunachal 01 01 00 02
Assam 08 05 01 14
Bihar& Jh 32 20 02 54
Delhi 05 02 00 07
Goa 01 01 00 02
Gujarat 22 04 00 26
Haryana 06 04 00 10
Himchal 03 01 00 04
J &K 02 03 01 06
Karnataka 22 03 03 28
Kerala 00 13 07 20
MP & Cha 33 07 00 40
Mahahtra 22 25 01 48
Manipur 01 01 00 02
Meghalaya 00 02 00 02
Mizoram 00 01 00 01
Nagaland 00 00 01 01
Orissa 15 06 00 21
Punjab 08 04 01 13
Rajasthan 15 10 00 25
Sikkim 00 00 01 00
TN&Pdy 00 18 22 40
Tirupura 00 00 02 02
UP+Ucand 30 25 30 85
WB 01 15 26 42
Others 02 02 01 05
Total 232 191 120 543
March 1st, 2009 at 10:10 PM
The SP-congress is not an alliance, it is an seat agreement,
>>Congress is demanding that it be given 18 seats and 5 more seats where it can have a friendly fight with the SP in a total 80
>> “We don’t have friendship, we have an agreement. If there had been friendship, it would have been sorted out” – Mulla yam
Clearly, there votes won’t add up, and I think they won’t do a joint campaign either. The lesser seats congress fights election the better it is for BJP (the only other national party). I think congress will not fight more than 20 seats.
Also, only 46 % of electorate cast its vote in 2007 assembly elections. 14.5 % of electorate voted for Non-National, Non-Regional Parties.
In 2004 Lok Sabha elections only 48% of electorate voted in UP, where as in 1999 it was much higher 53%, when BJP gained the most.
The success of BJP will depend on motivating people to come out and exercise their franchise. With more than 15% first time voters, if more than 55% of electorate comes out and vote, and if BJP is able to make a dent in “Others” vote, it has good chances of increasing taken its numbers to 35+ seats.
March 1st, 2009 at 5:34 PM
Hello
Please send this link to some BJP leaders.
Look below Rahul’s IQ (he is dumber than George W Bush)….
http://deshgujarat.com/2009/02/26/shocking-state-of-rahul-gandhis-general-knowledgevideo/
Recently Rahul baba while interacting with professionals in Ahmedabad’s Bhaikaka hall said that “Gujarat is bigger than the United Kingdom.” The Congress men gathered there started clapping but the fact is that Gujarat’s geographical area is 196024 sq km while the United Kindom possesses 245,000 square kilometers area, much bigger than Gujarat.
And Rahul Baba in the same interaction said that “India is bigger than the United States and Europe put together”. But the fact is that India(3,287,263sq. km) is not bigger either United States(9,631,418 km² sq. km )or Europe(1crore 20 lakh ) alone, forget put together.
March 1st, 2009 at 5:06 PM
Hi,
Kalraj mishra may fight from Kanpur. Talk is going on.
March 1st, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Hi,
Tandon ji is brahmin, that i was not knowing. Now he will win from Lucknow.
March 1st, 2009 at 12:53 PM
Thank you Murali Ji
I was anticipating it
March 1st, 2009 at 1:07 AM
That is gr8 news. I think the brahmin and upper caste vote, which BSP got was a negative bote against SP for the UP state, where Mulla yam was discriminating against them.
However, national election is totally different. With Congres joining SP, this votebase and even much of congress votebase will move to BJP.
BJP which had 18.5 % vote share in 2007 vote,
will gain 5-6 % Brahmin / Upper caste vote from BSP,
will gain 2-3 % Brahmin / Upper caste vote from Congress (8.5 % in 2004)
will have gain 3.5 % of Jatt votes (conc in west UP) from RLD (3.5 % in 2007 assembly election)
will gain 1-2 % others (Against Terrorism)
In total BJP-RLD alliance will have 30 -32% vote , conservatively.
BSP will end up 30%(2007 assembly) – 4-5 % (Brahmin vote) + 5% Muslim vote = 30 – 32% vote
SP will have 26% (2007 assembly) – 5 % (Muslims) + 4-5 % (Congress) = 25 – 26%
With RLD alliance, BJP will be strongest in Western UP, direct fight between BJP & BSP in eastern UP. SP might have its say in Bundelkhand.
I think outcome will be close to this,
BSP – 31
BJP-RLD – 27
SP-Congress – 22
February 28th, 2009 at 8:44 PM
Raj Bhaiyya,
Aap ke moo mein ghee chakkar, i got this news
http://www.indopia.in/India-usa-uk-news/latest-news/513369/National/1/20/1
Brahmins boycott BSP rally.
is baar BJP ulti waat lagayegi BSP, SP aur cong ko UP mein.
Jai Bhajpa
Jai Hind
February 28th, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Nope.
Congress in 2004 got Upper Caste Votes. With Congress alligning with SP, upper castes have 2 choices : BJP/BSP
however, with BSP giving tickets to Anti-Hindu Criminal Muslims, Upper Castes will move over to BJP