by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 4th, 2009 at 3:52 PM
pls read arun shourie articles on how upa mis handeled countrys economy. i hope you all take good care of your self as i know cong will be following this web site i am conserned about secuirty(just joking). well this articles are must read you can find them on indianexpress.com.
March 4th, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Mixed News:
some good like rampur , some bad news like the candidates in Fathepur sikri
http://www.samaylive.com/news/congress-declares-list-of-24-ls-candidates-in-up/612083.html
March 4th, 2009 at 11:19 AM
Hi,
There is innerfighting in BSP Brahmin MPs.
March 4th, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Dear all you can read this news reports (it is in Hindi if u can),
http://in.jagran.yahoo.com/epaper/index.php?location=37&edition=2009-03-03&pageno=15#
http://in.jagran.yahoo.com/epaper/
BSP infighting of Brahmins & one left BSP,
BSP removing Brahmin candidates from Bhadohi & Mirzapur,
this will push Brahmins towards BJP bcoz Congress candidates absent.
BSP opting for OBC candidates who will cut into SP’s vote.
March 4th, 2009 at 9:41 AM
Please complete Ritesh Bhai
March 4th, 2009 at 9:32 AM
Hi,
Innerfighting in BSP, becasue of Brahmin.
March 4th, 2009 at 9:27 AM
* Terrorising RJD leaders behind bars
March 4th, 2009 at 8:52 AM
NO Way AK Bhai, Nitish has Brought Administration to Bihar which witnessed jungleRaj under Lallu.
He broke lallu’s back9OBC Votebamk) by dividing OBC into EBC and OBC
He has put terrorising JD Leaders behind Bar
The Biased media is up for a big surprise, There is Revolt in LJSP over continuiance in UPA as Lallu is already a partner
This time the communists are not in UPA in Bihar.
so all these factors will leed to UPA’s rout in Bihar.
March 4th, 2009 at 8:31 AM
Yes Raj, and likewise it will benefit BJP in remaining 5-7 seats as there votes are nearly transferable, unlike Congress votes, which may not end up with SP.
If BJP+RLD cross 30 seats in UP, NDA will get clear majority in Center.
In Jharkhand, if JMM fights independently, then BJP can route them 14-0 , else UPA might get 3-4 seats.
Bihar, I am not as optimist Raj ji, I think NDA will be 20+ out of 40.
March 4th, 2009 at 8:05 AM
Dear AK, of these 7, RLD would Win a Minimum of 5 Easily
March 4th, 2009 at 8:05 AM
Dear AKS, Even otherwise, UPA would face a Rout in Bihar and Jharkhand
In Jharkhand UPA cant win more than 2 seats and in Bihar UPA at the most would win 6(5 for RJD and 1 for LJSP)
March 4th, 2009 at 2:51 AM
BJP leaves 7 seats to RLD in U.P.
Although the ‘formula’ was not publicly disclosed, senior BJP leaders confirmed that their party agreed, at a meeting here, to leave seven seats for its partner — Mathura, Baghpat, Nagina, Hathras, Amroha, Sitapur and Muzaffarnagar.
http://www.hindu.com/2009/03/03/stories/2009030356970100.htm
RLD is also part of NDA, I guess, it will make difference in 10 -15 seats in western UP.
March 3rd, 2009 at 9:19 PM
Good news for BJP from Jharkhand… JMM going away from UPA
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/002200903031231.htm
March 3rd, 2009 at 6:18 PM
Hi,
Now news
March 3rd, 2009 at 10:43 AM
in Bihar, this time UPA would Not get more than 10 seats.
March 3rd, 2009 at 7:49 AM
Good Analysis and points of concern too Sonu Ji
March 3rd, 2009 at 7:48 AM
Bhai JaiChand,
Baaki to sab theek hai, par tumhain nahin lagta ki after 10 yrs state (mis)rule & 5 yr at center, Farmers committing suicide in Vidharbha , Maharashtra will give NDA at least 32+ seats. Uttarakhand , BJP will win 4/5 in not all 5. With RLD joining BJP, NDA will cross 25 seats in UP.
So UP & UK : 30+ for NDA
In Jharkhand, after 5 yrs of misrule between Congress, JMM & RJD, people are fed up. NDA will win at least 10/14 seats.
In Bihar, UPA can no way get even 20 seats, 15 might be realistic.
So Jharkhand+Bihar, : 35 + NDA
I think NDA is ahead of UPA at this time, but yes doesn’t have majority.
March 3rd, 2009 at 5:17 AM
If I had to guess now it would be
STATE NDA UPA Othr Total
AP 01 22 19 42
Arunachal 01 01 00 02
Assam 08 05 01 14
Bihar& Jh 28 24 02 54
Delhi 03 04 00 07
Goa 01 01 00 02
Gujarat 16 10 00 26
Haryana 06 04 00 10
Himchal 03 01 00 04
J &K 02 03 01 06
Karnataka 18 05 05 28
Kerala 00 13 07 20
MP & Cha 25 15 00 40
Mahahtra 23 25 00 48
Manipur 01 01 00 02
Meghalaya 00 02 00 02
Mizoram 00 01 00 01
Nagaland 00 00 01 01
Orissa 13 08 00 21
Punjab 07 05 01 13
Rajasthan 12 13 00 25
Sikkim 00 00 01 00
TN&Pdy 00 20 20 40
Tirupura 00 00 02 02
UP+Ucand 15 33 37 85
WB 00 17 25 42
Others 02 02 01 05
Total 185 235 123 543
March 3rd, 2009 at 12:56 AM
Arun ji
Please share this video with BJP leaders.
http://deshgujarat.com/2009/02/26/shocking-state-of-rahul-gandhis-general-knowledgevideo/
March 2nd, 2009 at 9:07 PM
78-Bhadohi lok sabha, U.P
Sub: tactful inter-party politics in bhadohi bjp
Hounourable sir,
Bhadohi vidhan-sabha by election has been passed. Result is on 1st march.
I m recomending all these facts after election & political observation. Till now I was engaged in vidhan-sabha bye-election.
Consider these facts very sincerely & seriously.
Bhadohi-LS bjp candidate has been appointed on tactful inter-party politics recommendation(inter-party politics) of local strong “BSP hand” of bhadohi. Born from BJP, in past time, for self-intesrest, this “BSP hand” has used his own BJP resources in order to add one more BRAHMIN candidate in BHADOHI-LS contestant. Now there are three major contestant. According to caste-equation, Two of these three contestant are BRAHMIN & one is BIND by caste. Morever, it is more interesting or tragedic to find the intension behind the allotment of second BRAHMIN candidate by BJP,who is external or has been imported from “GHAZIPUR,U.P, failed M.L.A” career but not even from “BHADOHI,U.P, failed M.L.A” career.. Now obviously, as per the situation, LS fighting is in favour of SP candidate( Shri. Ramrati Bind, age 70). Reading above facts, it is now very logical to feel the situation of “BJP SUICIDE” in bhadohi LS fighting.
By using good intelligence, anybody can explore the extreme & un-expected factual relation between above mentioned “BSP hand”, state level bjp executive officers & even Shri mahendra pandey (bhadohi bjp LS candidate). Born from BJP, this “BSP hand” has been gifting good business to state level bjp executive officers and even Shri mahendra pandey ji.
The whole selection-process of Bhadohi BJP LS contestant had been hi-jacked by this “BSP Hand”, for his own local self-interest inter-party politics.
All the data or details supplied by bjp district & state level to CENTRAL-BJP had been fraudly manipulated to show the Brahmin-majority area, while ignoring the fact that one strong, fresh multi-millionaire BSP candidate (Businessman Shri Suuryamani Tripathi) is alrealy playing on LS fighting. Pls. pay yr. spl. Attention here that this personality(Businessman Shri Suuryamani Tripathi) had feeded and promoted above “BSP hands’s” politics in past from background. But now in present there is no tunning between these old friend and trying to overlap or competent to each other, even being from same bsp party. Above “BSP hand” is not accepting Shri Surymani tripathi’s political entrance & trying to fail it by, promoting or neutralizing, additional external, weak, Brahmin face of local bhadohi area.. Remember that, Shri suryamani had got BSP ticket without help of above “BSP HAND” and not getting support from above “bsp hand’s political infrastructure”. You can examin these hint true by here local investigation.
Under this conspiracy, Your state executive officers had put bhadohi LS seat in “C” category and using it for their personal politics obligation and another side they r saying that it is BRAHMIN majority area. How? It is justified that
LS seat, having 3 non-bjp party Brahmin MLA plus one strong, fresh multi-millionaire Brahmin BSP LS candidate, will be productive for BJP in reference to Brahmin majority seat(so called)..
Sarcasticaly , one can find regarding LS figthing that BSP has put “BOFORCE TANK”, SP has put “ROCKET LAUNCHER” but BJP has put pistol to fight LS or MISSION 2009. How it is possible?
Why this seat has been categorized as “C” class, when here BJPian Shri virendra singh has been won two times as MP & another period as second fighter. Ex BJP MP Virendra sing had to leave here due to being external candidate in bhadohi sense by here’s local people.
Try to understand the role of public, land bjp workers in allotment of bjp bhadohi candidate. In past under bhadohi LS seat was also containing 4 MLAs with BLPian MP. According to latest delimitation procees of bhadohi, 33% of population is forward class, 50% backwards, 25% sc/st. In addition to it reason behind all of these creative & positive complaints is that you were having the chance of “WIN” this seat by one local, fresh, young, dynamic, socialated vote bank, multi-millionaire,characterful qualified contestant, whose claim has been damaged due to inter-party politics of local politics.
U denied his claim, who made stand to your pary since last three yrs in bhadohi bjp by his talent. He did a lot of assignments & preparation to winnability factor for yr. party. By doing so, u hire officers have put yr. laxity towards yr. winnability factor. Record-WIN by your party was final by presentment of that young candidate. He could fail all the caste-equation of all other party. You cant imagine his capability because he was NEW! By local investigation you can find that Shi mahendra pandey is only fighting only for his political entertainment being on political ventilator in advance.
Denying this contestant before vidhan sabha bye-election, also made public’s aggressive-ness to defect result on 1st march, otherwise we could achieve target of v.sabha also. I also came to this soul-inspiration to writing, as being hard-core BJPian. We didn’t having representation of bjp here since long time. We r now tired. One excellent hope was there, but we missed it probably.
My all above statement is justified, if you think for only you own party.
My all above statement is not justified, if you don’think for your own party.
Adapt to improve, by your self-examination before time, either you get dissolve these statements in yourself. Pls. keep confi-dential
If your aim is nothing in life, you can’t miss anything!
If yr. work will be in +ve direction, I will contact you automatically
Save our target and efforts , u all r the gods for this mission.
BJP JITEGI-BHARAT JITEGA
Vande matram!