by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 5th, 2009 at 11:16 PM
my assumtion ,BSP WILL GET ABOUT 65 lOKSHAVA SEATS FROM UTTER PRADESH .And will crwoss 100 seats in india. Mayaboti will be THE PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA, supported by NDA UNCONDITIONALLY.Rudrapratap Deury
March 5th, 2009 at 6:04 PM
http://www.samaylive.com/news/congsp-alliance-in-doldrums/612310.html
Cong-SP alliance in doldrums?
March 5th, 2009 at 5:45 PM
This time evrything are in favor of NDA in this region.even though BSP will play a majo role,all other areas in north will give clear mandate for BJP – NDA.
March 5th, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Dear all
Many positive developments are vtaking place for BJP-NDA
Shiv-Sena, AGP, JDU alliance ans seat sharing finalising. GOOD
Chakresh, about mahendra pandey it was slip in typewriting once in that communication, but later in any communication I had never writen such point. moreover I had never counted Bhadohi as a potential win seat for BJP, I had always maintained Mirzapur, Phulpur as possible seats, Varanasi a sure one, Allahabad difficult, Ghazipur & Bhadohi not at all possible, in this region. However I had assessed Azamgarrh a much possible seat for BJP after last year bye-election result to this seat. Bhadohi was never inpossible calcul;ation, and later on I had never writen on this seat.
Actually while writing long blogs as I usually do write one or two slips may occur or in copying pasting as I write profile of one candidate and copy it for other with edits.
March 5th, 2009 at 3:32 PM
Sulekha.com Network sent me this email:
found an interesting link to share with you and wants you to check it to suggest oppose online for above personality. Mr. vikas ji, & advani ji u r in blunt mistake. From bhadohi,u.p- mahendra pandey is not youth but he is 62 by age & suffering from soriasis (skin-disease) & even then preparing for at this heated april-may Campaign.tell me how he will be succeeded. in addition to it he is imported candidate from ghazipur (failed MLA) career to bhadohi, just for politics entertainment, because he is un-known by 98% of bhadohi L.S public. he is here due to his only seniority or waiting for any special bjp-wave, which won’t come ever. he will get only votes under hard-ship of bjp symbol. after his announcement as mp contestant, he faced a by-assembly election at bhadohi vidhan sabha and he resulted bhadohi-bjp on “jamanat-jabt”. this “jamanat-jabt” happened due to public;s aggressiveness becoz of his absurd announcement as bjp candidate. To read full story read open url: http://sonuaa.blogspot.com/ note: i wrote it in reference to url:”http://promiseofreason.com/countdown-to-general-election-2009-north-india-a-battleground/#comment-795″ by vikas kumar
Check the link here: http://sonuaa.sulekha.com/blog/post/2009/03/78-bhadohi-lok-sabha-u-p-sub-tactful-inter-party.htm
March 5th, 2009 at 2:25 PM
Dear Arun, Except in UP, No where else did Upper Castes Vote for BSP
Therefore, her Brahmin-Dalit Bonhomie Doesnt work Elsewhere. In UP too, it was a one time thing. Now that mayawati fielded all Anti Hindu muslim terrorists in UP, in UP too Upper Castes Would Vote against BSP and gravitate towards BJP
March 5th, 2009 at 1:37 PM
4) As expected friendly fights are between Congress and SP
http://www.samaylive.com/news/sp-unhappy-with-cong-releasing-list-of-24-nominees-in-up/612250.html
March 5th, 2009 at 1:36 PM
3) Ulema further helping in dividing Anti-BJP votes
http://www.samaylive.com/news/ulema-council-announces-5-candidates-in-up-for-ls-polls/612270.html
March 5th, 2009 at 1:35 PM
2) Sena-BJP kiss and makeup
http://www.samaylive.com/news/bjpsena-to-continue-with-existing-seatsharing/612280.html
The congress is struggling to find candidates in Mumbai, after Sarukh Khan saying no to INC, now they want Nagma (will surely loose).
The biggest heache for the BJP in Maharashtra seems to be the BSP, it has put up Brahmin candidates (Ex-BJP) in Nagour, Ratnagiri, Pune and Thane (most of them strongholds of BJP)
March 5th, 2009 at 1:32 PM
The following news indicate that NDA prospects are improving
1) AGP- BJP sorted out amicably in all seats:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/BJP-AGP-announce-pre-poll-alliance/articleshow/4227481.cms
March 5th, 2009 at 1:19 PM
Yes AK Bhai, I Read That News and I am Quite Optimistic that UPA would NOT Win more than 6 seats in Bihar(5 for RJD and 1 paswan) .
March 5th, 2009 at 10:41 AM
http://www.zeenews.com/nation/2009-03-01/511749news.html
March 5th, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Good news from Bihar,
National General Sec of LJP, Ranjan Yadav, a powerful yadav leader and others join JD(U
This will take some of Yadav vote from Lalu to NDA.
http://www.patnadaily.com/news2009/mar/030209/grandsons_join_jdu.html
March 5th, 2009 at 2:16 AM
I feel BJP would have had a very good chance if its Prime Ministerial candidate was Modi. With Advani Ji, problem is that in 5 years time, he’d be near to 90 years and I certainly don’t want my country’s head to be of 90 years.
March 4th, 2009 at 6:15 PM
I think some of here woudl be dirctly / indirctly connected with some of BJP candidates.
March 4th, 2009 at 5:42 PM
Hi,
If BJP leaders see this side, definitely th BJP wil get advantage.
March 4th, 2009 at 5:27 PM
Dear All,
Please suggest if we can use this platform for sharing our ideas / thoughts/ learning for making the unique election campaign for BJP. So that these ideas can be used by BJP candidates in this election.Hope our knowledge ,experience and unique ideas can help BJP.
March 4th, 2009 at 4:20 PM
thats y i have put that under bad news
March 4th, 2009 at 4:03 PM
well, in Fatehpur Sikri, as Raj Babbar is The Candidate, it wont be a Friendly Fight.
March 4th, 2009 at 4:01 PM
Maine Padha Hai Vikas Ji, Bahut Shub Samaachaar hai
well, I can Read and Write Only in HBindi and English, Courtesey : My Education in Kendriya Vidyalaya