by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 17th, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Hi,
It is great incident for BJP. Varun is now untouchable for other parties. In future Varun can not be dissident in BJP.
March 17th, 2009 at 7:29 PM
WE ARE INDIAN[HINDOSTAN LAND OF HINDUS].HE ONLY DID FAVOUR TO HINDUES WHICH IS NOT WRONG.EVERY TRUE HINDU WILL SAY IT RIGHT.
March 17th, 2009 at 5:54 PM
The line in which he mentioned the chopping of heads of a particular community was idiotic..
Varun wnats to become the champion of Hindus in UP I guess. It may not hurt electorally but it is a scar which cannot be erased
March 17th, 2009 at 5:34 PM
Great News , Chances of Uma joining BJP are high,
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20090087863&ch=317200942900PM
They should shift her to Bundelkhand region in UP, it will make up for the Lodh vote bank which Mullayam is eying for after roping in Kalayan Singh.
March 17th, 2009 at 4:39 PM
What Wrong did Varun say?
Didnt congress use Bin Laden Alikes for getting muslims votes in Bihar Elections?
March 17th, 2009 at 4:37 PM
NO Saurav Bhai, This will give A Hindutva Wave for BJP in UP
March 17th, 2009 at 4:24 PM
That Bloody Varun Gandhi has managed to do in 10 minutes what Congress and allies could not do in 5 years.
In mere 5 minutes, and I mean Yes 5 minutes he has managed to destroyed BJP.
Mark my words, if his speech will be forgotten do not worry it will not. This is only the beginning.
Guess he has lived upto his fathers expectation.
March 17th, 2009 at 3:36 PM
HiAll,
BSP( Mayawati and Kanshi Ram) used abusive language against upper caste many times.Please give some proofs. It will be very helpful for BJP in UP election.
March 17th, 2009 at 2:58 PM
Varun Didnt say Anything Wrong.
He stated, He would Chop off The Hands of Those Who Hurt Hindus. How come This is Communal?
Should He say, We will Reward And Rever Terorists and Imperialists Who Harm Hindus Selectively to prove Secular Credentials?
March 17th, 2009 at 2:42 PM
Hi All,
BSP( Mayawati and Kanshi Ram) used abusive language against upper caste many times.Please give some proofs. It will be very helpful for BJP in UP election.
March 17th, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Hi Vikasji,
Please give your comment on Kanpur seat and give some guidance for Kanpur seat.
March 17th, 2009 at 2:37 PM
Hi,
Kanpur seat, this time BJP will win. Ticket has been given to Local MLA Satish Mahana who has won 5 times MLA seat. He is very popular person in Kanpur. Last time BJP gave ticket to non famous person. That is why BJP lost Kanpur seat. This time BJP will win Kanpur seat 100%. SP has also fielded own candidate.
March 12th, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Vikasji,
Awaiting ur analysis on the present state of UP politics
March 12th, 2009 at 9:39 AM
This is a big big headache i guess, Vikasji ur comments on the same?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Varanasi/Ajay-Rai-derides-BJP-BSP-move/articleshow/4250505.cms
March 12th, 2009 at 9:24 AM
VikasJi,
Varanasi worries me, Sp has decided to play the spoiler there!!! MLA Ajay Rai (Kurmi) from BJP has been poached by them and given a ticket. I do not about other constituencies.
Vikasji with BSP, SP and BJP announcing almost all the candidates, give ur sense of assessment in UP. Varanasi in specific!!!
F_ _king Dalal is creating headache!!!
March 12th, 2009 at 7:34 AM
Great News!
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http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage … +bickering
To be, not to be? Cong, allies back to bickering
The shape of political allegiances across the country kept shifting on Thursday, as long-term allies fell apart, bickering furiously over specific seats, while long-term foes exchanged notes and evolved common strategies.
The Congress-NCP tie-up in Maharashtra, which seemed all stitched up on Wednesday, lay in tatters, with the Congress suspecting a sinister hidden motive behind the NCP’s demand for 23 seats against the 21 – of a total of 48 – it contested in the last Lok Sabha poll.
In Kolkata, the tussle in Congress circles over West Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha seats intensified after the pact with the Trinamool Congress, with leaders trying to ensure their safe seats would not be bartered away.
March 10th, 2009 at 2:58 PM
Dear Arun, in My View, it will be lose to Individuals and Not to Party or Alliance.
RLD is A Caste ased Outfit, and Jats have Traditionally stood with Choudhary Ajit Singh irrespective of Where He joined.
March 10th, 2009 at 2:06 PM
VikasJi,
Is there any impact because of this development
http://www.samaylive.com/news/mulayams-jolt-to-ajit/612878.html
March 9th, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Nitish Isnt A Fool Like Naveen, He Wont Snap Alliance so soon, though He would at a Later time, may be By Next General Elections or may be By 1015 Bihar Elections. Not before that.
In Orissa, The Situation for BJP is Not as Bad as People think it is. BJP is Strong in Tribal Belt while BJD in Urban Areas.
Therefore, BJP has Potential to Sweep The Tribal Seats.
March 9th, 2009 at 9:25 AM
Another Dalit party in UP to cut into Mayawathi vote share
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/kanshi-rams-brother-to-contest-ls-elections/87154-37.html