by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 27th, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Raj & Chakresh,
I found Vikasji in the Rajdeep chat of CNN IBN today. I think he has lost love for this forum these days!!!
Chakresh,
I hold you responsible for the same as we have missed on imp forum member after the change in layout of the website!!!
March 27th, 2009 at 3:16 PM
Hi Raj,
In one of the newspaper, it came as news that Congress has done internal survey and it will be winning 150 seats. It was the same agency that did ealier survey for Rajasthan, Delhi assembly and thier prediction was on target. This internal survey has prompted party to go alone in Bihar and Jharkhand.
I think all these surveys are doing good job for BJP.
March 27th, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Swarup Ji, Secularism — Speak for Evangelists and Jehadis and Maoists
March 27th, 2009 at 10:42 AM
Real face of congress secularism
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Congress-prize-catch-in-UP-backfires/articleshow/4320466.cms
March 27th, 2009 at 2:50 AM
ok fellas!
the fun begins now, pre-poll prediction for general election. One state a day, detailed analysis. First one to go will be God’s own country – Kerala. All of you are invited to join the discussion there. cheers!
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-prediction-2009/
March 26th, 2009 at 5:09 PM
Can anyone comment on CON party and Mulyam status after their split. Same with LJP and Laloo in Bihar? Is it possible that BJP gets an advantage in UP with this situation? Can BJP get 25-30 seats in UP?
March 26th, 2009 at 2:11 PM
Nice to Hear Chakresh Bhai
March 26th, 2009 at 1:41 PM
Hi Raj,
yeah sure, I have sent a mail to vikasji, waiting for reply
March 26th, 2009 at 1:32 PM
Well, I Request, The Owner of This Forum to send a Personal Message to Him through e-mail.
March 26th, 2009 at 12:15 PM
After Vikasji deserting the forum, there is no news on the ground realities of UP. Do anyone have an idea why he is not writing these days!!!
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:08 AM
well said An American Indian!!!
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:55 AM
India’s real life billionaires love to boast in the forums of the world about India being a ‘young country’. Half of India’s population is younger than 25, they like to say, so there is no question that the 21st century will be India’s century because in an ageing world we can provide the human capital to keep the wheels turning. Really? With half of India’s children suffering from various degrees of malnourishment is this possible? Malnourishment does not just stunt the body, it stunts the brain. How many mentally stunted children do we know who grow up to become employable adults?
What makes India’s poverty such a disgraceful, dark thing is that it would not exist if the poor had not been the Congress Party’s most reliable vote bank. Indira Gandhi used this vote bank to its fullest in the ‘Gharibi Hatao’ election with that most famous of her campaign slogans. ‘Woh kehtey hain Indira hatao, main kehti hoon gharibi hatao’. The poor remained poor after she won and the vote bank remained intact until copycat Congress leaders like Mulayam Singh and Laloo Yadav lured the Muslims away and Mayawati took away the Dalits. More than 90 percent of the poor in India are either low of caste or Muslim.
They would not be poor if the crores and crores of rupees spent on poverty alleviation programmes had not been wasted on unwieldy, leaky efforts like Sonia Aunty’s favourite NREGA scheme. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme serves mostly to keep poor people in poverty for the rest of their lives but because it has the blessings of Sonia Gandhi it has now been spread across the country. If the money spent on it had been invested instead in an Akshaya Patra type midday meal scheme there would be no starving children in India today and our slumdogs would go willingly to school to eat that one hot meal a day. In Karnataka where Akshay Patra began studies show that school attendance went up to nearly a hundred percent and school performance improved dramatically. So if it is so easy why does nobody do it? Well, in the opinion of your humble columnist it is because when the Bharatiya Janata Party had its brief moment of ruling India it chose not to redefine governance but only to enjoy the thrills of power. If the Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee had changed only the functioning of the ministries that deal with the social sector India may really have ended up ‘shining’.
India can never shine or become an economic superpower as long as the majority of Indian children remain malnourished, illiterate and living in urban slums or villages that are worse than slums. Hollywood can be forgiven for celebrating our slumdog children and fawning over them as they enjoyed their fifteen minutes of fame on the red carpet. It is much harder to forgive our own political leaders for seeking to exploit the desperate, sickening poverty that these children have returned to. Shame on you Sonia Aunty. For this lack of basic compassion if for no other reason you deserve to lose the elections. Our problem is that on our bleak political landscape it is hard to detect one person or political party that deserves to win.
March 21st, 2009 at 11:29 PM
Hi,
BJP should support some BJS’s MP candidate. After election
BJP may buy these MPs.
March 21st, 2009 at 11:18 PM
Dear Arun ji,
I know you have contact details of Shri Atun Jaitly ji. Can you please suggest him to use Twitter http://twitter.com/. This way we can follow him. I have very high regards for him.
March 21st, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Fourth Good News,
From Jharkhand
1> BJP-JD(U) seals pact, BJP -12 – JD(U) 2 seats .
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090321/jsp/frontpage/story_10701933.jsp
2> There were talks of Congress-JMM alliance split.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Congress-JMM-alliance-splits-in-Jharkhand/articleshow/4294406.cms
3> Even if Congress-JMM fight election together, RJD-LJP-Others might create another front in Jharkhand. Since LJP already indicated to contest 6 and RJD to alteast 4 seats and then there are other bunch of jokers floating around.
It will be a surprise with this set up if BJP-JD(U) wins less than 12 seats. If point 3 comes true, then they can sweep all 14 seats.
March 21st, 2009 at 9:09 PM
Third Good News,,
From Orissa
1> BJD’s only woman M.P. joins BJP
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjds-only-woman-mp-joins-bjp/88320-37.html
With BJD joining hands with JMM (which wants to merge couple of districts into Jharkhand) and NCP (which is part of UPA) will hurt it real bad in these elections.
This will trigger exodus of people from BJD. Keeping my finger crossed.
March 21st, 2009 at 8:57 PM
Second Good News
From Bihar
1> It is Congress Vs Lalu-Paswan in atleast 37 seats.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Its-Sonia-vs-Lalu-Paswan-in-Bihar/articleshow/4297205.cms
With Sadhu Yadav and only dalit woman from RLD joining Congress, even if congress takes 5% vote share with these RJD rebels on board. It is good enough to reduce RLD-LJP vote share to < 40%.
Now BJP-JD(U) has good chances of sweeping Bihar with as many as 35 out of 40 seats.
March 21st, 2009 at 8:48 PM
So many good news today…
First from U.P.
1> Possibility of congress-SP alliance over.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Possibility-of-alliance-with-Congress-over-Amar-Singh-/articleshow/4297309.cms
2> SP fields Kalayan from Etah.
Kalayan singh already a spent force as we have seen in last assembly election. Now it will further alienate Muslim votebank of SP.
3> BJP to rope in Uma to Counter Kalayan.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-may-rope-in-uma-bharti-to-counter-kalyan/88292-37.html
BJP will get some share of SP seats now, especially where BJP came 2nd last time.
March 18th, 2009 at 9:52 AM
JAB TAK HINDU EK PARTY KO NAHI APNATTE, BHARAT KA KALYAAN NAHI HO SAKTA, CONGRESS OR BJP HINDUS SHOULD VOTE IN BULK IN FAVOUR OF ONE PARTY ONLY
March 17th, 2009 at 9:41 PM
bjp will surely win 2009 general elections if modi replaces advani