by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
April 2nd, 2009 at 2:34 PM
(Contd.)
4. BIJNORE :
Congress – Saiduzzama, former MP
(SP)- Earlier Kartar S. Bhadana then replaced by Madan Chauhan. Now he is also cancelled and no announcement yet.
(BSP)- Shahid Siddiqui, Rajya Sabha MP of SP crossed over to BSP
(BJP-RLD)- Likely to be given to BKD’s Rakesh Tikait son of Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Ch. Mahendra Singh Tikait.
One third voters are Muslims here and 15-17% Dalits.
BSP likely to get most Muslim but Cong & SP will also take some Muslim votes.
Congress’s Muslim candidate will not damage BJP-RLD but SP will take some portion of non-Dalit Hindu votes around 50% and leaving most of them to BKD supported by BJP-RLD.
5. NAGINA : It is reserved for SCs newly created seat.
Congress – insignificant here
(BSP)- Ram Kishan Singh
(RLD)- Munshi Ram Pal, sitting MP from Bijnore (SC)
(SP)- The Samajwadi Party has changed the party candidate from Nagina (reserved) Lok Sabha seat and now Yashveer Singh would be the new candidate.
The announcement of the name of Yashveer Singh, who recently joined the party leaving Ajit Singh led Rashtriya Lok Dal(RLD), was made by party state president Shivpal Singh Yadav on the directives of party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Recently, Yashveer had revolted against the RLD leadership following the BJP-RLD alliance in the coming Lok Sabha elections in UP.
Earlier, the party had announced the name of Manoj Paras as the SP candidate from Nagina(SC) seat in Western UP.
In this seat, one-third are Muslim votes, likely to be divided among BSP & SP with BSP upper hand.
The 25% dalit votes in this SC reserved seat are likely to be divided three way and other candidates, with BSP getting half of them.
The upper caste and Jat votes will go to RLD solid. The RLD has agood record of winning SC reserved seats in Jatland of Western UP.
5. Moradabad :
(BSP)- Rajiv Channa, sitting BJP MLA from Moradabad West, who crossed to BSP recently to contest LS election.
(Congress)- Mohd. Azharuddin, former cricketer
(SP)- Haji Rizwan
(BJP)- Kunwar Sarvesh Singh
The fight is primarily between BJP & SP.
With 35% + Muslim votes here, are likely to go SP traditionally but presence of celebrity Muslim candidate from Congress will also attract many Muslim votes.
Most of 15% dalits and part of 5 % Punjabi may go with BSP, being a Punjabi candidate.
April 2nd, 2009 at 1:02 PM
Well continuing with the analysis on UP:
Saharanpur Division & Moradabad Divisions
will vote in V phase 13 May
9 LS seats, namely
Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnore, Nagina (SC), Sambhal, Moradabad, Rampur, Amroha.
In 3 seats: Kairana, Sambhal, Amroha – both SP & BSP have fielded Muslim candidates.
In 2 seats : Moradabad & Bijnore seats SP or BSP have fielded Muslims respectively and also Congress has also fielded strong Muslim candidates in here (Moradabad – Md. Azharuddin, former cricketer; Bijnore – Saiduzzaman, former MP) , thus 2 prominent Muslims in both these seats.
In 3 seats there is atleast one Muslim candidate from SP or BSP or Congress. They are:
Saharanpur – Qazi Rasheed Massood (SP), sitting MP
Muzaffarnagar – Kadfir Rana (BSP), sitting MLA
Rampur – Begum Noor Bano (Congress), former MP – 3 times
Only in one seat Nagina there is no Muslim candidate as it is reserved for SCs. However, the % of Muslim voters varies here from 30%-50% in all seats.
Now taking on seat by seat analysis:
S. No. 1 – SAHARANPUR : This seat is at the extreme north west corner of UP adjoining Uttarakhand in north (Dehradun dist.) and east (Haridwar dist.) and bordering Haryana (Ambala dist.)in the west and joined with UP from south
Party candidates
Congress is insignificant here.
(SP)- Qazi Rasheed Massood , sitting MP
(BSP)- Jagdish Rana, sitting MLA of SP crossed over to BSP
BJP-RLD:not announced
BJP-RLD To announce the candidate yet, but it is decided they will field a Saini OBC candidate, the party BJP or RLD who will contest has to be decided. In BJP-RLD pact, 7 seats were alloted to RLD, but later Sitapur seat which was alloted to RLD , BJP put its own candidate because of the candidates from other parties RLD gave back the seat to BJP. Now, BJP has to allot one alternative seat to RLD, Saharanpur may be that one, has to be decided.
This seat has approx. 30% Muslims.
SP had put sitting MP Muslim candidate who will get majority of Muslim votes but they are no SP’s Yadav and Lodh votes here; so no additional support.
While BSP will get most Dalit votes but not much Muslim votes. However BSP has fielded a Thakur candidate.
BJP has its sitting Thakur MLA from Saharanpur city assembly seat Raghav Lakhan Pal Singh, who is very popular and bring a good share of Thakur votes to BJP-RLD despite BSP’s Thakur candidate.
S. No. 2 – KAIRANA : Both SP and BSP has fielded Muslims here.
Congress is insignificant here.
(SP)- Saran Massod, a Muslim Gujjar
(BSP)- Tabassum Beg, wife of sitting Muzaffarnagar MP of SP Munawwar Alam who died recently in an road accident
(BJP)- Ch. Hukum Singh Gujjar, sitting MLA from Kairana Assembly seat, several time winner senior BJP leader and Deputy leader of BJP legislative party in UP assembly.
This seat has approx. 40% Muslim votes. Muslim votes may divide b/n SP-BSP, but major portion will go to SP because among Muslims majority is Gujjars and SP candidate is a Muslim Gujjar. But no additional support for SP bcoz almost nil Yadav and Lodh voters here.
BSP is likely to get majority of 15% Dalits and a small portion of Muslim votes bcoz of sympathy factor.
BJP is likely to get all Hindu votes except most Dalit votes in absence of any other prominent Hindu candidate.
S. No. 3 – MUZAFFARNAGAR : Asia’s largest Jaggery (Gur)market is located here. The sugar cane farmers have an important role in the politics here, who are angry with BSP govt. over arrest of Mahendra SIngh Tikait od Bhariya Kisan Union, last year and traditional supporters of RLD.
Congress- Harendra Mallick, a sitting MLA
(SP)- Thakur Sangeet Singh Som
(BSP)- Kadir Rana, sitting MLA of RLD crossed over to BSP
(RLD)- Ms. Anuradha Chaudhary, sitting MP from Kairana won last time by over 3 lakh votes – the highest margin in all UP and no.2 in RLD after Ch. Ajit Singh.
This seat has approx. 30% Muslim votes.
Most of Muslim votes will go to BSP . It will also get 15% Dalits. So, BSP can get 35%-40% votes
SP is likely to get Thakur and a small portion of Muslim votes, around 10%-15% votes total.
Congress candidate is a Jat but in front of Anuradha Chaudhary of RLD, he would not be able to get much Jat votes. He can can get from 5%-10% votes total. Has Congress stood any upper caste- Baniya or Brahmin it would have taken away BJP’s urban & upper caste vote in absence of BJP candidate as RLD is contesting here, now they will go to RLD along with almost total rally of Jat farmers rural votes.
BJP is likely to get all Hindu votes except most Dalit votes in absence of any other prominent Hindu candidate.
(To be continued in next post)
April 2nd, 2009 at 12:35 PM
Hi,
BJP will get 25 to 35 seats in UP.
April 2nd, 2009 at 12:34 PM
Hi AK,
If Mayawati gets 80 seats in UP, in that case Mayawati can not be PM. Tell me who will support Mayawati and Why.
April 2nd, 2009 at 4:41 AM
But, going by The Latest Developments, there seems to be Mistrust and acrimony between SP and Congress and mayawati in order to woo muslim vote has driven Back The Upper Caste Votes to BJP by invoking NSA against Varun.
so, in UP, BJP Will certainly Win over 30 Seats and with allies around 35
April 2nd, 2009 at 3:24 AM
I think who forms next Govt will depend on whom UP votes in,
If Mayawati gets 45+ seats, She has good chance of becoming PM
If SP retains its 39 seats, it will form govt with Congress.
If BJP retains its old glory (52) or even comes close 35+ , it will form the next govt.
This is the most unpredicatable state.
April 2nd, 2009 at 12:53 AM
10 seats to UPA in Bihar is too much too.
RJD-LJP ill get Only 5+1 seats in Bihar
April 1st, 2009 at 10:56 PM
NDTV surprisingly has given 30 to NDA and 10 to UPA in Bihar.
Finally all news channels are seeing the writing on the wall!!!
April 1st, 2009 at 10:22 PM
I Admit Arun, but in ’98 She Wanted fame for All Wrong Reasons.
None Troubled Atal Ji more than Jaya and George Fernandez Also acted as Minister for Jaya Affairs.
She Earned Rebuke from Every one during that Period.
That was The Chance BJP Mised.
Had BJP Gone Alone in AP and TN Then, by now BJP would have been A Stiff challenge in both these States.
April 1st, 2009 at 8:50 PM
Lalu and Amar Singh are no. one joker.
April 1st, 2009 at 7:29 PM
Raj,
You got it wrong on ADMK. Jaya will not allow anyone of her MPs to become ministers. Even in State ministry no one continues in the same ministry for more than 2 years. She deals with Iron hand. Even if she join the centre, it would be outside support.
In 1998 she was a very amature politician and had PM ambitions. Today she is much better than most of the jokers in Indian politics.
April 1st, 2009 at 7:02 PM
But Dear Arun(NationFirst), I have to State here that AP Leaders Never ever Demanded Lion’s Share in The Cabinet.
in UF Govt.s too, TDP had only 3-4 nominees and none of them had Bulk Portfolios. Only Jaipal Reddy of Janata Dal(Then Unfractured), A Rajya Sabha MP enjoyed The High Profile Information and Broadcasting Ministry.
In Atalji’s Cabinet There was NO Cabinet Rank Minister from AP and in The UPA Gov. too, AP didnt get it’s due share.
But, The Dravidian Parties with The Exception of MDMK have shown their lust for power.
PMK would have been an insignificant party, but thanks to the politics of greed and blackmailing, anbumani ramadoss created a ruckus during Anti Reservation Protests as health minister and acted as AIMMS Minister and earned the rebuke of Supreme Court, the way he handled Dr. P. VenuGopal’s Issue.
DMK Threatened to withdraw support if The Shipping Ministry was Not Alloted to it.
AIADMK is NO Different, day in and day out she threatened Vaajpayee’s Government!!!
April 1st, 2009 at 3:05 PM
The common format is not applicable in UP, because there is no frame of NDA and main opponent, unlike other states. In most opf the seats it is three cornered, in some it is four cornered also. However there are also few seats with direct contests and even five cornered contests.
So each seat requires special treatment keeping in conjuction with the surrounding area seats.
Well! I am starting this analysis on a very good date. The day started with a good news from nowhere else other than capital of UP. Today morning I read the great news of Supreme Court disallowing Sanjay Dutt to contest from LS elections. I was really very concerned about Lucknow seat. No candidate could won against him from BJP. Now no candidate can defeat BJP in Lucknow. Now Advaniji taking from LUCKNOW is no more required.
Now coming to the structured analysis:
I will start from
WEstern UP – Rohilkhand- Central Terai region covering Saharanpur, Meerut, Moradabad, Bareilly, Aligarh & Agra divisions.
This region covers LS 32 seats
Out of this 32 seats, 5 LS seats are SC reserved: Nagina, Bulandshahr, Hathras, Agra, Shahjahanpur.
In the remaining 27 seats, in 60% of them i.e. 16 seats there is atleast one Muslim candidate from SP, BSP or Congress+. In at least 6 seats, there are two Muslim candidates. Even the Muslim candidates from Congress are strong in this region to cut into Muslim votes.
Polling will be held in IV & V phase in this region. BJP alliance has announced 26 candidates so far and 6 seats are remaining. BSP has announced candidates in all seats. SP has left 2 seats: Ghaziabad and Mathura for Congress, in remaining 30 seats they have annouced candidates. Congress has announced candidates in more than half LS seats and likely to support some smaller groups, Muslim leaders in some seats.
One very good thing, in Saharanpur,Moradabad, Bareilly, Aligarh Divisions and adjoining Meerut, Bulandshahr, Kannauj, Farrukhabad, Lakhimpur-Kheri, Sitapur seats totaling 24 seats: BSP has not fielded any Brahmin candidate and put up 7 Muslims. While BJP has already stood 3 Brahmins and likely to add one more Brahmin from any of 6 remaining seats.
Out of 26 announced candidates, BJP-RLD had carved a very nice caste combination. Out of 5 SC seats one is given to a Jatav (ashok Pradhan from Bulandshahr) and remaining four are given to various non-Jatav SCs.
In remaining, there are 4 Brahmins (+1 or 2= 5 or 6 is expected in unannounced seats), 4 Thakurs, 2 Baniyas,1 Punjabi, 3 Jats (+1=4 is expected in unannounced seats), 1 Gujjar, 3 OBCs (1 or 2 more to be added) and 1 Muslim – Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi from Rampur
April 1st, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Vikasji,
I have only one small point to raise on the importance of UP in this election. All the years you have mentioned on UP having a smaller say has peculiar behavior in the south.
Tamil Nadu and AP put together make about 81 seats. In all these years the swings in these states have determined the centre. Interesting in all elections the 2 states have always had coherence in their swings delivering about 70 seats to the ruling combination.
This year it is expected that TN will swing the ADMK way and AP will give a fractured verdict. So in the number game, it appears that UP will have a larger say in the 2009 govt. This is only an opinion.
Between lines it is no secret that every BJP supporter (in this forum) wants to know about the possibilities of the revival of BJP in UP.
April 1st, 2009 at 2:28 PM
Great Observation Vikas Ji!!!
In 2004, the role of UP further depleted to all time low. The Congress which formed the Govt. at centre came fourth in UP in 9 no. of LS seats and the third no. party BJP in UP with 11 LS seats with allies became the principal opposition. The SP-RLD alliance which came first bagging 38 out of 80 seats, found no takers at centre. Congress party formed Govt. with the support of Left parties, without seeking any help of SP or BSP.
Before this election the winner in UP got at least the role of opposition at centre, in this election it also lost this significance also. The number of ministers in Union Govt. was as low as below 4, with not even a single Cabinet minister in them. Even the state ministers were not holding independent
I Never Noticed this!!!!
And from TN with stupid players like PMK with just 6 MPs had as many as , DMK called Shots.
Lallu and Shibu Soren too had their say.
LF ruled without accountability!!!
People of UP should be reminded that by voting to BSP or SP they would only be Humiliated at National Level.
April 1st, 2009 at 2:23 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, I Wish You Send the write up to Chakresh Ji and we have a new Topic.
Also As UP is too Big, I request You to Analyze atleast in Five Parts : Harit Pradesh,RohilKhand,Central UP, Poorvanchal and Bundhelkhand
April 1st, 2009 at 2:18 PM
Thanks all!
The earlier post was only the prelude to analysis. Now I will do region wise seat by seat analysis. As UP is avery lage in political size, it can not be covered in one write-up but will require several versions. well I am staring the first version from today.
April 1st, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Chakresh,
I think we can follow a standard format for all the states with the following columns.
Constituency No(as per EC)
Polling Date
Probability of NDA winning
NDA candidate
Main Opponent
Spolier
Factor for the electorate
As far as Maharashtra is concern, during this weekend i would complete the spreadsheet in detail and would forward it to you.
April 1st, 2009 at 1:59 PM
Hi Vikasji,
Do seat by seat analysis(80 seats in UP). It will be permanently organised by
Chakresh. Do not do in one. Keep on doing one by one seat in UP.
April 1st, 2009 at 1:47 PM
@vikasji
why don’t you mail me the whole analysis and I shall post it as new entry, in that way more people will be able to read it, otherwise it will be lost in long thread of comments.
between thanx for such great work