by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
April 11th, 2009 at 1:21 AM
Modi on CNN- IBN about Hindutva.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMwulbJKcmA
Watch and enjoy
April 9th, 2009 at 9:18 AM
Awesome Videos, and Thank For Sharing The Links Maoj Bhai.
The Media is Acting like congress aggent and it seems the media’s only purpose is to prevent NDA from forming government.
ofcourse, The Popular Vernacular Media is Not such.And Fortunately, Most of The People prefer watching Vernacular Media and Read Vernacular Press
April 9th, 2009 at 9:16 AM
The Never Deliver True Version is NOT Viewed By Majority of People.
And amongst Those Who Watch that channel, Most of us are BJP Supporters.
therefore, why give importance to those fools?
April 8th, 2009 at 11:16 PM
Dear All,
Hereunder is the revelation concotted and fabricated story of false and vested Opinion Poll by NDTV about Orissa which is contradicted by local news channel .
Bindra Karat behind Naveen’s good show on TV polls!
By Anurjay Dhal
Last updated: 04/08/2009 15:39:31
Text Font Size: S- / S+
Naven Patnaik, Orissa CM (left) BRinda Karat (right)
Latest Orissa Headlines
Opinion Poll
Bhubaneswar (Orissa): After conspiring to break the 11-year alliance and then striking deal, the Communist Party of India (Marxists) went further ahead while using a private TV channel to show Naveen Patnaik’s popularity in the wake of his divorce with the BJP, what the left comrades perceives as communal and divisive forces.
CPI (M) Politibureau member Bindra Karat, who studied with Naveen at The Doon’s during their childhood days, played a key role in the poll survey, sources said.
Interestingly, the TV channel, which forecast Naveen’s BJD is all set to form the Government in record straight for third time, is owned by sister of Ms Karat. Bindra’s sister is Radhika Roy, wife of Pranaya Roy, who owns NDTV. Bindra is wife of CPI (M) General secretary Prakash Karat.
The twist further added fuel with reports that another CPI (M) politibureau member Sitaram Yechury is attending a joint press conference hosted by NCP and BJD at Naveen Niwas this evening.
Naveen Patnaik and NCP chief Sharad Pawar are expected to address as many four joint public meetings at Balasore and Jajpur districts of the State.
The second phase efforts to gather support for a sinking Third Front came just a day after the TV channel forecast a landslide victory for the BJD led alliance.
While BJD’s BJ Panda (Jaya), who is close to both Mr and Ms Roy of NDTV, also got due share in the poll survey.
The survey predicted Jaya Panda could win Kendrapara Lok Sabha seat. “Those, who conduct survey, they might not aware about the ground realities in the wake of the split,” a senior Kendrapara based scribe said adding joining of few BJD and former Janata Dal leaders into BJP, has changed the whole equation.
No doubt, BJD is front-runner, but the study clearly pointing out a handiwork of CPI (M) with green signal from BJD chief. It was the CPI (M), which first patrolled at Naveen Niwas few hours after BJP pull out from Government on March 7.
The NDTV survey says Naveen as ‘most popular choice’ in Orissa. No doubt at all, but Naveen’s own Intelligence and Special Branch officials apprehending a repeat of 1995. His Biju Patnaik lost the battle against Congress veteran JB Patnaik after striking a deal with the Left Forces.
Most significant fact was that, the survey shows, at least 85% people in Orissa believe that the 10-year long BJD rule in Orissa has done enough on development sectors like power, road and water. It did not mentioned BJP’s performance at all. Since last one decade, Naveen was a running coalition not BJD’s ship alone.
In terms of numbers, the BJD and its allies may get 82 of the 147 assembly seats leaving behind Congress with just 48 while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at a distant third with just 14 seats, according to the survey, where as officials here are predicting 50-55(at best 65) seats for the regional outfit.
Though in some aspects the BJD Government performance lacks behind, especially in generating more employment he survey put it in 42:51 ratio, the present break up in the 11-year-long ties with BJP may go in favour of BJD. Orissa is going for elections in two phases, on April 26 and 23. Let’s see, who is right and who wrong.
Naveen’s own Intelligence and Special Branch officials apprehending a repeat of 1995. His Biju Patnaik lost the battle against Congress veteran JB Patnaik after striking a deal with the Left Forces.
Most significant fact was that, the survey shows, at least 85% people in Orissa believe that the 10-year long BJD rule in Orissa has done enough on development sectors like power, road and water. It did not mentioned BJP’s performance at all. Since last one decade, Naveen was a running coalition not BJD’s ship alone.
In terms of numbers, the BJD and its allies may get 82 of the 147 assembly seats leaving behind Congress with just 48 while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at a distant third with just 14 seats, according to the survey, where as officials here are predicting 50-55(at best 65) seats for the regional outfit.
Though in some aspects the BJD Government performance lacks behind, especially in generating more employment the survey put it in 42:51 ratio, the present break up in the 11-year-long ties with BJP may go in favour of BJD.
Orissa is going for elections in two phases, on April 26 and 23. Let’s see, who is right and who wrong.
http://www.odishatoday.com/politics/Bindra_Karat_behind_Naveen_080409-8754210232659864751230.html
April 8th, 2009 at 8:59 PM
Awesome ad… It is great. Is it being shown on TV?
Narendra Modi rips Arnab Goswami of Times TV.
Please watch and spread the news…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mivzJCgD490&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5GQiCDwEsI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arx24wfmnjk&feature=related
April 8th, 2009 at 6:26 PM
I have watched That Arun Bhai and is Really Good!!!!!!
Like The Concept too!!!!
April 8th, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Once again link for benefit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFJW47kmj9M
April 8th, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Guys,
Y no feedback on the new advt.?
I thought everyone would be impressed
April 8th, 2009 at 5:48 PM
जागो हिन्दुओं अब तो जागो और BJP को वोट दो
जात पात छोडो और बीजेपी को वोट दो
April 6th, 2009 at 6:37 PM
But,in the last decade (since ’98 General Elections), Our Family Turned to BJP
April 6th, 2009 at 6:28 PM
In this matter, I am on lucky side, My family is voter of BJP and before that they used to vote for JanSangh
April 6th, 2009 at 6:26 PM
Chakresh Bhai, I am A Die Hard Nationalist.
Actually, our Family was Pro-Congress. During Narasimha Rao’s Time, my Parents and All our Relatives voted for Congress. But, ev er since this italian and her impostor son have took over, my Blood Is Boiling.
April 6th, 2009 at 6:22 PM
@Meshak,
Please refrain from calling names to people. Keep your self reasonable.
@Raj
Cool down boss. Everybody is entitled to their opinion, we can not shut every mouth. Let us do our discussion and ignore the foul people.
April 5th, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Brother of Amar Singh, a Congress leader and another SP leader joins BJP
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Amar-Singhs-brother-SP-leader-join-BJP-/articleshow/4359841.cms
There will be some vote transfer from Congress & SP to BJP. As little as 3-4% will additional 10-15 seats to BJP.
April 4th, 2009 at 6:32 PM
BJP is to come out with an Ad that is going to leave India shaking!!! Wait and Watch!!! This black and white avd will leave the opposition pissing!!!
April 4th, 2009 at 5:46 PM
Hi,
Osama Bin Laden fights election from any seat of India. Muslim will cast vote to Osama.
April 4th, 2009 at 2:59 PM
oh my Goodness!!!!
I never thought that.
so azhar being a hyderabadi is NOT An Issue there?
so, for these muslims local, non local too isnt an issue.
uh?
As You said, Hum Hinduon ko Bhi Ab Jaagna Padega.
Aakhir kab tak Hum aapas mein ladte rahenge
April 4th, 2009 at 11:14 AM
Come on Raj!
U are an intelligent person, I don’t expect u to ask such questions about Azharuddin prospects.
1) Unlike Hindus, Muslims do not consider themselves divided like North Indian South Indian, etc. The one of the many things I like about Muslims that they do consider themselves brother and sisters through out the world. Even if there is something happening against Muslims in as far as Somalia, Palestine, Manipur, Gujarat, there is sharp reaction throughout.
Unforntunately, we Hindus are horizontally and vertically divided on region, languages, caste, community always and we hardly care for our brethern facing attrocities in Kashmir, North-East, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia elsewhere. We need to learn from them. Good things should should always be taken no matter the source.
That is way I highly value my 13 years staying at Aligarh Muslim University and has high regards for this great Institution.
2) Muslims by and large in Indian sub-continent know and speak Urdu, no matter they are in Sindh Pakistan, Karnataka, Assam, Hyderabad, Marathwada even Bangladesh, ascent may vary. In Muslim community knowing, speaking and writing Urdu is considered to be highly respectable.
Unlike Hindus where we feel proud to read Engish newspapers, watch English movies and listen to English TV channels and gave a damn to Hindi and our rich other regional language heritage and totally discard Sanskrit education. I really feel very sad when most of the new generations of Punjabi, Sindhi and other regional Indian language speaking communities are not able to properly speak and not at all read and write their mother tongue.
3) And about Azharuddin’s image as ……… due to his involvement in match fixing case. Do you really think it will prevent Muslims voting for him, when SP, Congress, Ram Vilas Paswan, CPM using lookalikes and masks of Osama Bin Laden, Saddan Hussain for attracting Muslims and nominating people like Coimbatore blasts accused Abdul Nassar Madani for LS elections.
Now, I think u will agree a large no. of around 40% Muslims in Moradabad LS seat will flock to Md. Azharuddin, Congress candidate. Thus he will divide the en-bloc solid Muslim support of SP candidate Haji Rizwan. SP’s Muslim candidate (earlier Janta Dal in 1991)has always won this seat in last 20 years barring 1998.
However in such situation BSP will be squeezed and BJP will attract most of the Hindu votes and won this seat this time comfortably.
April 3rd, 2009 at 10:42 PM
Me thinks that this guy (Priyanka’s father-in-law has some info on the ITALIAN gang and he was trying to expose before elections.)
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Priyanka’s father-in-law found dead
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi … 356528.cms
NEW DELHI: Rajendra Vadra, father of Robert Vadra, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s husband, was found dead at a guest house in Yusuf Sarai area on Friday. A source requesting anonymity claimed that it was suspected to be a case of suicide as Vadra was found with an ironing chord around his neck. Police officials, off the record, initially said the death was caused by a heart attack, but later clammed up. No official statement was forthcoming from either the family or the police.
Vadra’s body was found by a room attendant at around 9.30 am in City Inn, where he had been staying for the last fortnight. His body was taken to Safdarjung Hospital and a post mortem conducted. Sources within the hospital claimed that there were injury marks around the neck, but declined to be quoted. Neither the police, nor hospital authorities divulged any details about the cause of death.
Vadra, who was in his 60s, was reportedly alone at the time of his death. His body was cremated at the Lodhi Road Crematorium on Friday afternoon in the presence of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka and his son Robert, along with other family and friends. Rahul left early for campaigning in Bihar while the others stayed on with the family. The family of the deceased refused to speak to the media about the incident. The police declined to comment on whether an inquest would be conducted into the allegations of suicide.
Vadra was reportedly undergoing treatment for cirrhosis of the liver and severe diabetes at Max Hospital. He was staying at the guest house even though he owned a house in New Friend’s Colony.
About eight years ago, Robert Vadra had issued a public notice stating that his father, Rajender, and brother, Richard, were “duping” people by promising jobs at the Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee and other favours. Rajendra later threatened to file a defamation suit against his son. In an interview, he had also expressed displeasure at Robert’s marriage with Priyanka.
Rajendra was a resident of Civil Lines area of Moradabad and ran a brass and wood handicrafts business. Robert’s brother, Richard Vadra was also found dead in mysterious circumstances in September 2003 at his Vasant Vihar residence, and his sister Michelle died in a car accident in 2001.
While the Vadra family claimed to be a supporter of the Congress Party, Rajendra’s older brother Om Prakash had donated his property to a trust in Moradabad, some members of which are affiliated with RSS. A school still stands on that land. The family is originally from Sialkot, Pakistan, and Rajendra’s father moved to India at the time of partition.
April 2nd, 2009 at 7:04 PM
Can a south indian and a tainted one like azharuddin create any majic in UP?he cant even speak Hindi properly, he just utters urdu and his accent too is typical Hyderabadi.