by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
North India looks like a potential battleground with NDA, BSP leading and UPA and SP following. Read detailed analysis
Jammu-Kashmir (6): Situation is very much like Uttar Pradesh in this northernmost state of India. Here most likely PDP will win 2 seats, national conference 2 seats, and one for each of BJP and congress. National conference is in very disastrous condition organizationally. This may cost it one more seat to congress. Otherwise anti-incumbency can help it.
Himachal Pradesh (4): Recent win in state assembly election has proved that this time it will be BJP in Himachal. Most likely BJP should get 3 out of 4 reversing the trend from 2004, leaving only one for congress. Even if fought properly BJP can grab all 4 of them. Others are insignificant in HP, particularly in LokSabha elections.
Punjab (13): SAD+BJP will be in more advantage if election happens early, because as time passes Mr. Badal is creating a usual apathy for himself in Punjab. If election happens at scheduled time, SAD+BJP may grab 9 seats (7 SAD + 2 BJP) and congress 4 seats. If early election happens, then 1-2 seats can slip out of congress grip.
Haryana (10): In current situation congress can win 5-6 seats leaving 1 for BJP and 2-3 for INLD. But BJP and INLD are most probably going to form pre-poll alliance, as suggested by recent meetings between Omprakash Chautala and BJP leaders. BJP+INLD should win 8 seats (5 BJP + 3 INLD), leaving only 2 for congress. Congress is going to face anti-incumbency and its internal division in the state unit.
Delhi (7): In national capitol it is going to be a thumping win for BJP in LokSabha and VidhanSabha both. BJP is most likely to win all 7 seats in the state. 1-2 seats can be very hard fought, where luck can help congress.
Uttaranchal (5): BJP is still going strong in this hilly state. Most likely the formation of last election will remain unchanged with 1 for congress, 3 BJP sure and 1 hard fought, still I think that BSP will harm prospects of congress and will help eventually BJP to win 4 seats.
Uttar Pradesh (80): This leaves us with the hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh. It is a very tough call, as all of us know with ever changing political conditions in this state. Currently BSP and Maya madam are ruling UP after winning 2007 election, which was a debacle for Mulayam Singh and embarrassment for BJP. Congress is almost dead in UP leaving some district in central UP. This region and some big cities can through 7-8 seats for our dying grand old party. Rahul Gandhi was not able to create any hope for congress. Though new development between Mulayam and Congress can increase its tally to 12 at most, but that is very unlikely as both of parties have eyes on muslim votes. Mulayam is certainly going to be hit by surge of Mayawati. SP is going to win around 20-25 depending on coalition with congress. BJP is most likely to retain its seats and can increase its tally upto 15-20. Though they lost in state election half of their seats, but as LokSabha election trends support BJP in UP. BJP need to do a lot of homework on ticket distribution and should try to Brahmin votes back from Mayawati, otherwise they can end up similar to last election 8-10 seats. Others (Ajit Singh, Apana Dal, independents) can win 2-3 seats. Remaining all seats are going to lean blue side. Finally considering all major parties contesting without any alliance most likely BSP will win 35, SP 20 seats, BJP 15 seats, congress 7 seats, and RLD 2 seats, others 1 seat.
This completes our north India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 125
BJP: 37
SAD: 07
INLD: 03
This gives NDA total as 47.
INC: 16
PDP: 02
This gives UPA total as 18.
NC: 02
SP: 20
BSP: 35
RLD: 02
Other: 01
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
April 20th, 2009 at 10:15 PM
pLEASE VOTE FOR BJP SINCE IT IS THE ONLY DISCIPLINED PARTY, AT PRESENT JUNCTURE
April 17th, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Varun wave is going to sweep next 3 phases of poll in UP.
http://www.ndtv.com/news/india/varun_will_behave_now_says_rajnath.php
And as Varun made his way from Etah Jail to Agra airport, it was clear that his stint in jail has only made him a bigger martyr to the saffron cause in the eyes of the BJP’s rank and file and other Hindu organisations.
Now I am confident BJP will get 30+ seats in UP.
April 16th, 2009 at 8:27 PM
Any feedback from polls yesterday?… Guys? any one?
April 14th, 2009 at 2:51 PM
If 48% of People want congress government, congress should be getting close to what they got in ’84. Because, in ’84, congress recieved 49.04% of Popular Vote.
Are They MAKING FOOLS OUT OF THEMSELVES?
April 14th, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Without Doubt, Vishnu Bhai.
Thatz A Big Joke.
Aajtak has A Trackrecord of siding with The Ruling Party to get The Award of Best News Channel.
April 14th, 2009 at 2:40 PM
There is yet another surprising survey and analysis by Aajtak.48% voters want UPA back in the government?Is the survey intentionally limited to congress pockets?
April 13th, 2009 at 8:50 PM
ofcourse Manoj Bhai, None of The Anti Congress Man in These States will Vote for left,rjd,sp
April 13th, 2009 at 7:23 PM
Hello…
Any one with links to BJP, Please convey them this message.
BJP should strongly point to people in UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Bengal, Kerala that if they oppose CON party, they should definitely oppose COMMIES, SP, RJD. In the end, all these thieves are in together. A vote for any of these theives is a VOTE for CON party. The COMMIES split with CON party just to play this game.
I don’t think BJP is strongly bringing this issue up. You have to clear the confusion among people.
April 12th, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Hi,
I do not think congres can get more than 4 seats from Rajasthan. Reason is very simple
1. No inner fighting in BJP
2. Jats, Meenas an Gujjars are supporting BJP.
April 12th, 2009 at 12:54 PM
Who are they fooling with this kind of fabricated surveys?Who they want to influence?While there are many big states from where BJP is likely to gain a major share of seats let these surveyors name atleast one major state where congress can expect major gains?What congress can hope now is from left ruled states and few seats from Rajasthan.
April 12th, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Yes Dear Sudarshan.
karunanidhi got so scared of Su Thirunavakarasar that as BJP Decided to Nominate Him(Yet to be Officially Announced), karunanidhi replaced, subbalakshmi jagadesan with an upcoming actor.
I Wish DMK Loses Central Chennai too
April 12th, 2009 at 8:55 AM
Hi ,
This is Sudarsan from TN.I don’t think DMK alliance can even win more than 5 seats in TN.Itz AIADMK sweep .Admk allianc excluding commies will be 28 to 30 and they will support BJP for sure if they are just short of majority .
Even Karunanidhi don’t believe DMK getting 15 seats
April 12th, 2009 at 8:28 AM
Hi Raj,
For BJP+
In UP 19+10
Rajasthan 10+10
Maharashtra 21+10
in (WB+Kerala+TN+AP) = ) +10
Reaming India Present seat showed by Star News + 30
It means BJP + will get 191 + 70 =261
In the very—-very worst case it would not be less than 230.
It is my conclusion.
April 12th, 2009 at 6:02 AM
In TN, Congress is drawing a Blank.And Rajasthan and Delhi, they are basing on Assembly polls, they should first take congnisance of the fact of what happened in ’98 Assembly and ’99 Lok Sabha Polls
States where congress would draw a Blank : Bihar,Haryana,TamilNadu,Delhi,Jharkhand.
In Gujarat,Karnataka,UP < 5
April 12th, 2009 at 5:59 AM
In Maharashtra and Haryana upa winning is absolute stupidity.
how can they even think that in Maharashtra it would be upa sweep?
when even in last elections, upa lost in maharashtra?
this time, there is severe anger in Maharashtra against upa
how come against BJP-HLD(R) alliance congress can even think of winning a single seat. It would be Repition of ’99 when congress drew a blank.
without alliance which seat in Bihar can congress win?And winning 24 seats in AP is Another Non Sense.
Congress will draw a blank in all 17 constituencies in Telangana.
and it is unreasonable to think, it would win in 24 out of 25 parliamentary seats in rest of AP.
In Karnataka, congress can at the most win 3 seats
April 12th, 2009 at 5:54 AM
Hello starnews, are you day dreaming?
congress getting 155?
dmk getting 15? ncp –11?
seriously, even dmk ministers are having a feel that they would have to draw a blank and can at the most win 2-3 MP seats.
NCP can retain a maximum of one seat.
in addition to Double Anti-incumbency in Maharashtra, there is Mutual distrust between the party cadres of ncp and inc. Shiv Sena only 9?
umn..
whatz wrong with star news?
April 12th, 2009 at 4:47 AM
Star News-Nielsen Opinion Poll Predictions:
UPA – 203, NDA – 191, Third Front – 104, Lalu-Mulayam-Paswan-PRP – 39, Others – 6.
Congress – 155
BJP – 147
Left Front – 35
Samajwadi Party – 28
BSP – 26
JD (U) – 22
DMK – 15
TDP – 13
TMC – 13
NCP – 11
SS – 9
BJD – 9
AIADMK – 9
State-wise Results, as per Star News-Nielsen Opinion Poll:
Uttar Pradesh: UPA – 7, NDA – 19, BSP – 26, SP – 28
Maharashtra: UPA – 27, NDA – 21
West Bengal: UPA – 20, Third Front – 22
Tamil Nadu: UPA – 25, Third Front – 14
Andhra Pradesh: UPA -24, Third Front – 17
Mandhya Pradesh: UPA – 5 NDA – 24
Chhattisgarh: UPA – 2, NDA – 9
Karnataka: UPA – 8, NDA – 18, Third Front – 2
Gujartat: NDA – 18, UPA – 8
Rajasthan: UPA – 15, NDA – 10
Bihar: NDA – 29, UPA – 1, RJD-LJP – 10
Jharkhand: NDA – 9, UPA – 5
Orissa: UPA – 9, NDA – 3, Third Front (BJD) – 9
Kerala: UPA – 11, Third Front – 9
Assam: UPA – 3, NDA – 9, Third Front – 1
Punjab: UPA – 5, NDA – 8
Haryana: UPA – 6, NDA – 3, Third Front – 1
Delhi: UPA – 6, NDA – 1
J&K: UPA – 3, NDA – 1, PDP-Ind – 2
Himachal Pradesh: UPA – 1, NDA – 3
Uttarakhand: UPA – 2, NDA 3
Goa: UPA – 1, NDA – 1
http://www.greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=14479&cat=15&scat=39
2 weeks back Star TV gave 250 to UPA. Now it is 203.
They are already down by 47.
25 to UPA in TN… They are in for a shock of their life.
Gujarat 8 to UPA? Let them get 5 first… We will see
Karnataka … 8? Cross 4 first …
Rajasthan’s new news is going to tough for UPA…
AP … 24? I saw Rahul’s trip there… Hope that goes to 10 to 15…
maha … 27? make it -7
Ap … 24 may be -7
Karnataka and Gujarat 8 each? … may be -4 each
TN 25? may be -10 to -15
April 12th, 2009 at 3:51 AM
Become a Kashmir Terrorist for Islam in India and Get Pension from Indian Government but not Indian soldiers.
Watch and spread the
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_Q_WiJbM40&NR=1
April 11th, 2009 at 8:52 AM
Hi Raj,
Congress is paying huge money to media. It is completly true. That is why media is speaking in favour of Congress.
April 11th, 2009 at 8:24 AM
I am Happy, He Boldly Stated That Media is Biased and Didnt STOP There, He also used A Powerful Term, “News Traders” for These Media Houses, He also stated “Probably, The Media Doesnt Criticize upa as They would Lose Their Bread”