Comments on: Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground

By: prashanth

prashanth — Thu, 14 May 2009 12:19:54 +0000

Watch ap election results 2009 live here at

http://tv9kannadalive.blogspot.com/
http://tv9kannadalive.blogspot.com/
http://onlineelectionresults.blogspot.com/
http://online-election-results.blogspot.com/

By: Raja

Raja — Fri, 01 May 2009 19:06:01 +0000

complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.

State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18

THE BIG PICTURE

a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02

NATIONAL PARTIES

a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145

The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.

By: Anonyms

Anonyms — Fri, 01 May 2009 16:28:01 +0000

IB reports submitted to the PM which have been leaked to the media suggests that BJP is at least 35 seats ahead of the INC.

By: Ram

Ram — Fri, 01 May 2009 16:10:52 +0000

How about other UP seats that went to poll in Phase3. Can anyone provide more details?

By: Chakresh

Chakresh — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:32:19 +0000

@ ashutosh
I agree with you on both seats,
In Kanpur Stish Mahana is a very strong candidate and is going to win that seat.
Not so sure about Lucknow.

By: ashutosh

ashutosh — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:07:22 +0000

I can tell you about Lucknow seat.Here total polling is only 36%.Heat is also big factor, this seat can probably go to BSP candidate Akhilesh Gupta.Although i pray this should go to bjp, but my mind is determind this will go in bsp kitty.reason is very simple….developement.there is no development, even when Shri Atal ji was PM too.ppl were faith on him.but this scene is not now.and current bjp candidate LALJI tondon is joker.he dont do anything.he is currently MLA for LKO west, where total polling is only 32%.he is only hoping ppl will give vote just becoz of ATAL ji.but ppl are not so fool.
but yes , Kanpur seat should go with BJP.

By: RAJ

RAJ — Fri, 01 May 2009 11:39:33 +0000

Purnendu Bhai, it’s NOT Advani Ji vs manmohan as You are All Presuming.
It is Advani Ji vs Who?
as manmohan is NOT Accepted by UPA as PM. This the Respect manmohan commands from his cabinet colleagues
and Third Front — hahahahaha
they arent even sure who are the constituets of this thrid front

By: purnendu das

purnendu das — Fri, 01 May 2009 09:58:32 +0000

thanks raj bahi for your comments.i know a lot of things from you .i also think bjp may do better in delhi in comparison to assembly elections.now people will vote for monmohan vs advaniji and not shila vs malhotra.bjp proved this in 1999.manmohan was a respected person and has a image of great economist before he become pm.but after five years of upa term he lost his image as a economist and become a frasted person.so i think delhi voter will reject manmohan this time.
by saying he is not a orater he also send bad message to educated youths who are fan of him simply because of his ph.d from cambridge university.
now the question is if a person is not a orater then how he will manage freign policy.there you have to manage all the educated secretaries of foriegn states.if he is not a
orater then he is harmful for indian forign policy.

By: RAJ

RAJ — Fri, 01 May 2009 03:31:53 +0000

Purnendu, Good Estimation, but, I feel, in Delhi, BJP would Win A minimum of 5 and also in Rajasthan a Minimum of 15. In AP, I Wonder how even Post Polls, People are cautiousover Predicting The Seats in BJP’s tally.
BJP is likely to Win 5-7 from AP as per Post Poll Observers

By: purnendu das

purnendu das — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 20:21:42 +0000

this is my prediction for 2009 generel elections
1.state 2.total no of seats 3.seats likely to get by BJP.4 seats likely to get by BJP+ 5 seats likely to get by congress.6 congress+ 7 others
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
u.p 80 18 04 7 0 51
bihar 40 10 20 1 0 09
gujrat 26 18 0 08 0 0
m.p 29 21 0 08 0 0
rajasthan 25 13 0 12 0 0
delhi 07 03 0 04 0 0
jharkhand 14 08 01 03 02 0
chatishgarh 11 08 00 03 0 0
uttaranchal. 05 03 0 02 0 0
orissa 21 04 0 08 0 9
punjab 13 03 06 04 0 0
h.p 04 03 0 01
hariyana 10 03 03 04 0 0
goa 2 1 1 0 0
maharas. 48 13 12 13 10 0
kerala 20 0 0 11 02 07
karnataka 28 18 0 07 0 03
a.p 42 02 0 22 0 18
tamilnadu+
pondicherry 40 01 0 05 10 24
assam 14 05 03 04 0 02
n.e region 10 02 01 05 0 02
w.b. 42 01 0 08 13 20
j&k 06 01 0 01 02 02
i have no idea about union territories

By: bapan

bapan — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 19:50:55 +0000

i think bjp will 20 seats in up by itself.

By: Chakresh Mishra

Chakresh Mishra — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 10:18:43 +0000

Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)

http://promiseofreason.com/forums/

Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion

So go there and register and start posting

http://promiseofreason.com/forums/

By: AK

AK — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:31:51 +0000

@ Amber,

Regarding HP.
This is my state so I can give u some insights.

4 Seats

1> Hamirpur : BJP – This is one of 10-15 seats across India, BJP has not lost for last 5 elections. The reason being this is by far the most literate and educated constituency. 100 % literacy, Huge development done by BJP leader Dr Jagdev Thakkur. Chief Minister Prof Prem Kumar Dumal’s Constituency. BJP won 4/5 seats in Assembly polls. Even when it lost all 3 seats in 1999 , they retained this seat.

2> Kangra : BJP – 90% – Again a high profile constituency of former Union Minister and Former Chief Minister Shanta Kumar. This time though he is not contesting ,still BJP is far ahead. BJP traditionally does better than Congress in lower Himachal.

3> Shimla : Advantage Congress – This has been traditionally congress bastion just voted BJP once in 1999.
Constituency of former CM of Congress Virbhadra Singh, Raja of Rampur.

4> Mandi: 50-50 – Once it was congress bastan when Sukh Ram was in Congress, since his parting ways and BJP gaining strenght subsequently.

Verdict BJP 2.5 Congress 1.5

By: AK

AK — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 14:18:19 +0000

@ Venkat

It is very simple, If NDA – UPA > 30 , NDA forms Govt.
If UPA – NDA > 30 , UPA forms govt…

Others will join after getting their share, they don’t care about ideology…

By: Manojk

Manojk — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:22:30 +0000

Just see Venkat and realize that UPA is full of people like him: incoherent, unintelligent and clueless. We voted out NDA , UPA ran the ship rudderless for 5 years. Terrorism everywhere, Quatrtrochi’s account de-freezed and now was marked off red alert list, economic mismanagement with no infrastructure growth and planning, CBI becoming Congress Bureau of Investigation, Abdul Kalam disrespected and kicked out by anti-Indian Sonia. Let us soundly defeat this despotic, corrupt regime and send them to where they belong: ITALY

By: RAJ

RAJ — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:54:28 +0000

Hey Venkat, have you run away from A Mental Assylum.
have Sense and make Sense.

By: Venkat

Venkat — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:28:24 +0000

UPA only can form Government in strong. Hence any party selected for MP seat, they will be finally support UPA. Hence all may vote for UPA.

By: RAJ

RAJ — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 04:28:24 +0000

Ambar STFU.
you are Lunatic and die hard fan of italian trash

By: Ambar

Ambar — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 19:18:59 +0000

I returned from a brief trip to Himachal, and Congress seems to have a clear edge there.
BJP is definitely out in HP. They may manage only 1 seat there, if any.

By: PRAKASH

PRAKASH — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 16:45:45 +0000

pLEASE VOTE FOR BJP SINCE IT IS THE ONLY DISCIPLINED PARTY, AT PRESENT JUNCTURE

By: AK

AK — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 05:32:08 +0000

Varun wave is going to sweep next 3 phases of poll in UP.

http://www.ndtv.com/news/india/varun_will_behave_now_says_rajnath.php

And as Varun made his way from Etah Jail to Agra airport, it was clear that his stint in jail has only made him a bigger martyr to the saffron cause in the eyes of the BJP’s rank and file and other Hindu organisations.

Now I am confident BJP will get 30+ seats in UP.

By: Manojk

Manojk — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 14:57:40 +0000

Any feedback from polls yesterday?… Guys? any one?

By: RAJ

RAJ — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:21:24 +0000

If 48% of People want congress government, congress should be getting close to what they got in ‘84. Because, in ‘84, congress recieved 49.04% of Popular Vote.
Are They MAKING FOOLS OUT OF THEMSELVES?

By: RAJ

RAJ — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:20:08 +0000

Without Doubt, Vishnu Bhai.
Thatz A Big Joke.
Aajtak has A Trackrecord of siding with The Ruling Party to get The Award of Best News Channel.

By: Vishnu

Vishnu — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:10:49 +0000

There is yet another surprising survey and analysis by Aajtak.48% voters want UPA back in the government?Is the survey intentionally limited to congress pockets?