- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
Take a look at these related posts:
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
June 28, 2008 at 12:11 AM
reg Tamil Nadu, your analysis ignores the role of DMDK. Vijaykanth polled nearly 9 % of the vote in 2006 assembly elections . He repeated the performance in the local body elections a year later. DMDK even almost pushed ADMK to third place in the two bye elections in 2007
Vijaykanth was not a factor in 2004 lok sabha polls and most of the people outside tamil nadu don’t realise that he is the joker in the deck now. He is being effectively wooed by DMK, congress, ADMK, BJP and the communists. His vote bank holds the key. And since his is a largely anti-DMK and Naidu votebank, ADMK and MDMK stand to lose if DMDK contests alone or forms some sort of third front. And you have given MDMK and PMK 3 seats each. They can’t win a single seat if they contest alone. They don’t have the strength to win any single parliamentary constituency
Your Split up of TN seats resembles the 1998 election. This time the scene is completely different. Here are the possibile coalition scenarios
1) DMDK + ADMK + BJP + MDMK + PMK = NDA Sweep
But DMDK eats into MDMK vote bank in the south and PMK vote bank in the north. So whether Vaiko and Ramadoss are willing to fuel Vijaykanth’s growth remains to be seen
2) DMDK + ADMK + BJP = NDA majority but not outright sweep, maybe 30 seats
3) ADMK + BJP + MDMK + PMK with DMDK as third front = 50-50 split for NDA and UPA
4) DMK + CONG + CPI + CPM + DPI + DMDK = UPA majority may be 30-35 seats
July 6, 2008 at 2:02 PM
You are absolutely correct bala, Vijaykanth is a only one to be a alternate for DMK (party will expire after M.Karunanidhi) and ADMK (Already in sick).
July 6, 2008 at 2:08 PM
The interesting thing is the election commission announced percentage of vote received by individual parties after 2006 assembly election and said DMDK got 9%. But they refused to announce the same after local body election.
July 6, 2008 at 3:02 PM
Every politician has started to copy the policies of Captain.Captain said in his election manifesto that he wouldvgive 10 kg free rice every month,immediately Jaya said she would give 15 kilo rice.When Captain opened free computer classes in Viruthachalam,Vaiko started in Kalinkappatty.When Captain asked free cable connection with TV Ramadass also reiterated the same.Captain said ration goods will reach the houses,now in someother way MK is planning to give packed articles. Captain had already requested the government to allow palmara climbers to prepare toddy as it is less in alchohol contents.Now most recently Sarathkumar has demanded the same to the goverment.So Captain is the inspiration to all politicians in Tamilnadu
July 7, 2008 at 9:57 PM
and more actors followed by him…..
Karthick and Sarath Kumar
July 8, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Hi
Seeing the recent political analysis, It seems that BJP is likely to win 9 out of 11 seats in North Karnataka.Raichur is 50-50 chance for both BJP and COngress .Gulbarga a striong hold of congress..
BJP will surely win all 3 seats of coastal Karnataka and 2 out of 3 seats of central karnatakl(Chitradurga being 50-50)
BJP will win 4 out of 5 seats in Bangalore region.One may go to COngress
BJP is likely to win 2 seats in other old Mysore region(Mysore and TTumkur).Kolar chance of BJP is high.JDS will win 2 seats.Congres is likely to win Chamarajanagr seat
So
BJP’s high chance in 21 seats
Congress sure of 3 seats
JDS sure of 2 seats
50-50 chance between BJP and COng in 2 seats.
I predict atleast 21 seats for BJP from Karnataka
July 17, 2008 at 7:17 PM
In the analysis about AP you didn’t take into account recent elections which can be considered the biggest poll survey bcuz elections were conducted in all 10 districts. Barring the Hyderabad city results where there are lots of non telangana settlers who are against telangana..TRS got a 37% vote where as TDP got 29% and congress only 25%. Now with Devendar out of TDP and break up in TDP and lot more to jump on Devendar wagon and with arrival of chiranjeevi who is going to break major portions of congress and TDP and little of TRS(like 3 to 5 percent whereas for congress and TDP could be anything like 10 percent) he could cause a death blow to congress and TDP vote back though he may not emerge a winner in telanaga. With TRS and NNTP tying up and Congress fighting on its own TDP with CPM or chiranjeevi on his own or with CPM TRS and NNTP and BJP could win all the seats in Telanagana (11). And in andhra 8 each for congress TDP and Chiranjeevi with others getting the rest. But if TDP ties up with others in telanagana Chiru may get 10 in andhra and congress may get more than 10 in andhra.And telanagana combine might sweep all the seats in Telangana.The news channels TV9 ,Gemini and others are congress mouth pieces so they always try to spread it that TRS and telangana are gone but the sentiment is very much there and it could show its full impact on national politics this year.TRS combine will get 9+ and congress is out of the game.
July 23, 2008 at 2:59 AM
I agree with the karnakara and kerala states predict. But I not agree with Andhra pradresh and Tamil nadu states predict. In Andhra, TRS will sweep more number of constituencies in the Telugana region. TDP will win 25-30 with BJP allies. And the ruling Congress failed in all departments in the Andhra and also Central Since Congress win below 10 numbers in this state.
In Tamil nadu, DMDK is grooming in to the major party they proved their strength in last elections. People of tamil nadu looking for a new party to rule, Because DMK & ADMK are ruled randomly last 50 Years. So DMDK sees to get more 20+ seats to allies with the national parties.
July 26, 2008 at 5:08 PM
In Karnataka BJP would make a Clean sweep as JD(S) of Dewe Gowda is Tying up with BSP and Communists. BSP would make a dent into INC Vote Bank and therefore BJP would win about 21 Seats in Karnataka.
In Kerala BJP Can Win Two Seats this time.
In Andhra Pradesh, Chiru Sweep in The Central & Northern Coastal Districts, while in Southern Coastal Districts and in Rayalaseema, Congress would make a clean sweep.
In Telangana, if TRS ombines with TDP, Devendra Goud with BJP and Communists with Chiru, then BJP-Dev endra Goud would emerge as clear Winners leaving behind TDP-TRS combine and congress while Chiru-Communists-Lok Satta would draw a blank in Telangana.
So, Finally The Picture in AP would be : INC-MIM ,Majlis(Hyd) = 14
chiru+lok satta(of Jai Prakash) + Commies = 14, TDP+TRS+BSP=7,
BJP+ Devendra Goud =7
so, TDP would be the real loser in AP
TN , The most likely pre-poll alliances would be : ADMK+BJP+PMK+MDMK(Vaiko)+Dr.Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party , This would Win about 20 seats
DMDK(Vijay Kant)+ Communists+BSP may get around 14 seats
and This leaves DMK+congress combine with 5+1(Pondicherry, wnhere Congress CM enjoys goodwill of People), PS that I am giving DMK – Congress combine more seats then I actually should have
July 26, 2008 at 7:42 PM
—-> It is likely to be DMK holds all its allies except PMK and got enough respect to people PRECENTLY, even PMK joined hand with ADMK+BJP+MDMK .
—–>But it is seeming to be ADMK allies will get more seats as DMK lost its popularity as unable to stop price hike
——>As far as DMDK is concerned, CAPTAIN definitely get enough respect to the people(IF NOT JOINED HANDS WITH ANY PARTIES)
——->I numerically not want to pointed out any seats but ADMK will get 20-23 seats only if they form allies with BJP,PMK,MDMK
——–>But PMK likely to joined hand with cong.(as ramdoss mentioned always) so he might gather his chance to join UPA
——–>If DMK holds all its allies including PMK have a nice chance to get around 15-18 seats NECK to NECK with ADMK
——–>But it is a nice chance to DMDK to get BULK amount of votes
(up to 15 to 20 percent) improving a lot from its past elections if stand alone
———->So DMDK has a reasonable chance to get 3-4 of 5 seats which is a step forward to captains future plans
———>It is the time to prove Sarath kumar too (but i don’t think he get enough as he has no reasonable masses since he even unable to prove himself in 1996 election ( as a DMK canditate) in thirunelveli losing it with ADMK canditate)
——->Both Sarath and karthik get around 2-5% of votes if they allies together not even get deposit as it is clear for me
——–>splitting Nadar and Thevar votes from Congress and ADMK respectively by these two hasn’t have any matter to SPEAK a lot
July 27, 2008 at 7:33 AM
I am expecting this will be the scenario in 2009 election(If held in summer)
120-125 TDP
70-75 Chiru+
45-55 Cong+
25-30 CPI+CPM+TRS+devender Goud(NTP)(0-2)
20-25 BJP+
3-4 MIM+
July 27, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Dear Reddy, Your Arithmatic seems Bereft of Logic.
I am Staunch Anti Congress Man and am in Particularly against Yesupada Samuel Reddy and Sonia Maino.
But, let’s be closer to Reality.
With The Loss of Devendra Goud, TDP has lost Morale in Telangana.
Nava Telangana Praja Party of T. Devendra Goud and TRS are unlikely to join Hands.
Most likely, NTPP AND BJP Would be Allies.
KCR has also lost credibility and would further lose so if he joins hands with NCB Naidu, who is firmly against the creation of Telangana.
Chiru would eat into TDP’s votes and most likely TDP would be reduced to Kammas and Madigas who support them.
with Kapus population ranging from 18-22% , most likely, a Majority of these would vote for chiru+lok satta+ Communists combinme except in telangana as they are against the formation of telangana.
In this battle, due to fiercely fought triangular contests in Costa and Rayalaseema(here chiru may not find much support) and Quadrangular fight in Telangana.
Certainly, the final Tally would be much closer with NO Formation nearing the half way mark
This leaves Congress with 95-105
Chiru with 65-70(Mostly in Coastal Region)
BJP-NTPP(Assuming a Sweep in Telanagana and some gains for BJP elsewhere) 50-60
and TDP-TRS-BSP with 60-70
others like MIM and Independents with 5-10
July 27, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Dear Muthu Krishnan, The DMK has lost all its Allies except for Congress.
The Left Parties are likely to Join Vijay Kant’s DMDK, but how far DMDK can make an Impact in National Eletions has to be seen.
so far, He has NOT made any Staement on National Politics and what His Party’s Stand is.
However, going by the present trend, He is most likely to playh safe being unattached, as Alliance with Left Forces for the upcoming elections Dont mean a thing in a State like TN.
DMK-Congress are going to have a Seat Adjustment of 25 and 14+1 for the Parliament Elections.
PMK is a Fence sitter and sensing who would Win the elections would go with them.
As DMDK and PMK are Staunch Rivals,PMK can only opt with ADMK led Alliance.
One Interesting Aspect is how would DMK-Congress Alliance deal with Dayanidhi Maran, The Estranged Grand Nephew of MuKa
July 31, 2008 at 4:59 AM
I think in Kerala the BJP could surprise the pundits with some win. Don’t know the exact number.
In Tamilnadu PMK could be shunned by both Jayalalitha and MK. and would be facing its waterloo as a political party. DMDK would find itself stranded again in the middle. All said and done it is basically a Naidu political outfit. Sarathkumar’s Nadar outfit and Karthik’s Thevar party won’t be cutting much ice either. The commies and the dalit parties could get accommodation with the DMK-Congress alliance though the Communists have a lot to explain this for joining an alliance that they tried to vote out of power. But then they don’t give a damn as long as they can win a seat or two!
There is lot of price rise, inflation, unemployment etc. working as anti-incumbency and DMK cannot cannot continue the hoodwinking with the color TV scheme. The SSCP is a white elephant through which money is ploghed back to the party leaders and it is going to end and their tirade against Hindus are not going to be appreciated. The DMK itself is on the verge of splitting but the grand old man is keeping the bunch together with his frail old hands. Congress too is not a cohesive party with so many back stabbers lurking against each other in darkness. Only Sonia’s money bag is holding them together. God knows if this UPA combine has any appeal left among the masses. What happened to JJ in the last parliamentary election might happen to UPA in this parliamentary election. Don’t be surprised!
July 31, 2008 at 5:04 AM
In Karnataka I agree with Raj’s analysis. BJP is enjoying the honeymoon with people!
In Andhra Congress may not repeat the results of the last election. It may result in a hung assembly. Parliamentary election could bring a three way split.
July 31, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Dear Anbu, but, still I feel PMK Would Shamelessly ally with JJ. They have proved that ll they want is a few MP Seats and Plump Cabinet Positions.
or else, from ’98 till date, howz it that PMK is in Cabinet ?
They have NO Logic and are just a Caste based outfit.
In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana may see A Four Cornered Contest if BJP And Dendra Goud’s Nav Telangana Praj Party Allign. If They do, they would be the clear winners in The Telangana Region.
In any Case, TDP And Babu would be the biggest losers in All three Regions.
August 7, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Hi All,
DMDK growing up.But I think it is not eligible to stand alone in Mp elections. Because anyway MP election depends upon Prime Minister position. So better making alliance with UPI is very useful to Captain and as well as continue in state elections too. My guess now DMDK having 25 – 28 %. There is only the reason No alliance with DMK and ADMK(This word from Captain). So let us see what happen?
August 13, 2008 at 9:34 PM
Latest Developments in TN Indicate Re-Allignment of Forces in There.
Flash Flash Flash
AIADMK Chief Jayalalita is Likely to Ally with Maywati and Communists, with MDMK Already in their kitty, soon PMK is ready to Join this Alliance and Ditch DMK.
This Leaves The Realligned forces in TN as :
DMK-INC-Dalit Panthers of India(if it chooses to contest National Elections), This is most likely to be a loser
AIADMK-BSP-PMK-MDMK-CPI(M)-CPI, umn, a Real Grand Alliance!!!
Likely to Win A Majority of seats :25-30
Most likely The Estranged Maran is likely to Join BSP or ontest as BSP Candidate in 2009.
This leaves, BJP , Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party, A .C. Shanmugam’s New Justice Party in The Wilderness.
Is anyone left?
Yes, and That is DMDK of Captain Vijaykant.
In 2006, to test His waters, He preferred to go alone but, this time for the National Elections which would be fought on Different Issues, where Freebies Dont matter, it is more likely that DMDK, BJP, Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party and A.C. Shanmugam’s New Justice Party are likely to form an Electoral Alliance.
RAJ
August 14, 2008 at 2:53 PM
The situation right now in AP
Cong will sweep Rayalaseema + Southeren Costal Region and gives good fight in Coastal Andhra (North and Central) + Tough situation in Telangana.
If TRS + TDP + Left joins together then will sweep Telangana.
Chiru will win Coastal Andhra (North and Central) but rest of the state he will be nominal.
There is takers for BJP + NTP(Devender) in AP, I doubt can they open the account State Elections? MP seats forget it.
Rayalaseema + Southeren Costal Region Total 11 Cong 9 TDP 1
Coastal Andhra (North and Central) Total 14 Chiru 7 Cong 4 TDP 1
Telangana (including Hyd) Total 17 MIM 1 TDP+TRS+LEFT 12 Cong 4
AP: Cong 17 TDP 9 TRS 4 CPM 1 Chiru 7 MIM 1
Having said that whatever changes will happen they will be in favour of Chiru and against TDP and Cong.
September 6, 2008 at 11:45 AM
Hello Share View:
TRS’s alliance with TDP will prove Disastrous
In Telangana its going to be BJP – NTPP of Devedra Goud who will have a clean sweep.
In Uttar Andhra ranging from Bezawada will be Praja Rajyam’s Bastion.
Rayalaseema is a Bed Rock for INC
If Modi campaigns in Hyderabad, MIM will be doomed.
The Muslim Percentage of Hyd is about 40% so even if 42-43 % votes are obtained by BJP, Hyd will be in BJP’s Pocket.
With Lumbini Park’s bombings and intensified attack on Hindu Temples and centre’s soft policy towards terrorism and terrorists to keep muslims happy, it’s certain that BJP will pull A Victory in Hyd.
TRS would fight hard to retain the karimnagar seat.
Even a Kid knows that CBN is against Telangana.
Dakshin Costa will be a battleground between ongress and PrajaRajyam.
The Real Loser will be CBN in 2009.
September 24, 2008 at 4:00 PM
HI,
In AP I hope all those who are reviewing take cognizance of the fact that all telangana parties have declared that they are going to put up a united front on the eve of elections. But it is not only us the common man but the leaders of telangana parties are bogged down by a tie up situation with all and sundry jumping on the bandwagon except Congress and CMP and chiru party not being committed either ways. But the talk of the town is ,it is dr. mithra who is going to play spoil sport with his left leaning and anti-telangana stand.CPI and CPM have different stands on telangana but they want to stick together. If one analyses the 2004 election constituency wise for last 15 years one can clearly see congress has given seats it could never win to TRS and also CPM and CPI then put up candidates so that TRS couldn’t win more ,if only they had played fair TRS could have won 10 more and CPI and CPM ac couple more.With BJP now being very strong especially in telangana, the most probable outcome could be TRS, BJP,NNTP and Either TDP or PRP which could more or less sweep the pools in legislative assembly. To mix legislative assembly and Loksabha is foolish because there is strong feeling that BJP would return to power and there are instances in past where in an MP won from one party and all MLAs are from other party when elections were held at same time. For loksabha point of view whoever goes with the BJP will get maximum benefit. With SP tying up with congress in UP , BSP has only way of going with BJP else both could end up losing. If BSP joins with BJP that could be the end of a third front at center, and CPI could as well join the bandwagon on telangana combine. All in all one could say congress could only end up winning something like 5 seats for loksabha and 50-90 in assembly.Depends on telangana combinations. But anti incumbency and anti Congress corrupt policies sentiment is very much there. If only the opposition has sense to join the maha combine only for the elections (TDP,PRP,TRS,NNTP,BJP and CPs) then Congress could as well end up with a single digit number in the legislature.Dr. Mithra could as well be the friend in disguise for the congress in PRP.
October 1, 2008 at 3:48 PM
i feel it will be 8 for the ldf and 12 for the udf in kerala,in karnataka there will be clear sweep for the bjp , tamil nadu of couce it willl benifit aiadmk,orissa it will coupled with naveen patnaik and bjp,andhra it may favour chiranjeevi yaar,goa of cource to bjp so the final oin south india is an hung parliament
October 2, 2008 at 9:28 PM
when are the 2009 parliament elections
October 2, 2008 at 11:38 PM
@vamsi
predictably in feb-march next year now. Though government can decide to resign before, but it doesn’t look like a possibility now.
thanx to stop by.
October 4, 2008 at 1:32 AM
is BJP that much strong in andhra.. it is very hard to believe…i want bjp to form government in andhra..
October 16, 2008 at 6:03 PM
considering the power cut problem, it is doubtful of the congress alliance to get at least one seat in M.P.elections. The number of hours announced and un-announced power cuts in mofusil area , other than Chennai city, is nearly 10 hours or upto 12 hours a day. This will create a great set back, if the problem is not looked into before the anouncement of elections to M.P.
October 19, 2008 at 5:02 PM
Very congrats on this blog.
Yeah the question by karthik is in my mind as well. 4% reservation given to Muslims in police/other government jobs should fuel BJP rise isn’t it.
I am from western UP, have lived in Pune almost all my life and have worked in Chennai/Hyd for a brief period. I have seen extreme Hindu-Muslim polarization in UP, Mah but probably same is not there in southern states (maybe they weren’t affected by partition that much).
With 18% Muslims in UP (reaching to 40% in almost all western UP seats) nobody can dare give them even 1% reservation as that will mean a landslide victory for BJP with all caste equations going for a toss. Won’t this 4% reservation and win in Karnataka fuel BJP growth in AP?
October 21, 2008 at 9:29 PM
The scene in TN is not clear. Vijaykanth has grown scince the last assembly elections and it does appear that the Congress may be inclined to tie up with him. The PMK has openly stated that they would be prepared for a Congress led alliance in TN which also includes the DMDK. If this scenario unfolds then we may have a 3 way contest with DMK+LEFT+Thirumavalavan on one side Congress+DMDK+PMK on another side and the AIADMK+MDMK+BJP+SARATHKUMAR on the third side. The DMK is facing substantial anti incumbency due to power cuts and rising prices and altough they have tried very hard to make it appear that they have delivered on their election promises it may be tough going for them. Vijaykanth has substantially eroded the youth base of the AIADMK and that party too does not appear in good shape. One thing for sure this time around there will be no clean sweep and the next Govt. at the centre may not have too many pinpricks from their southern ally.
November 3, 2008 at 9:22 PM
this time in ANDHRA -2009 Elections, the scene would be completly different.
TDP will be the most disaster looser while CONGRESS will comed down to 2 digits.
As per my prediction.
if TDP+TRS+CPI then it would will decent seats in telangana region and TDP looses drastically in Andhra and rayalseema
it would get 60-70 seats.
CONG will get 70-75 seats
PRP+CPM+BJP+LOKSATTA
140-150 seats.
PRP is very very strong in Andhra region and may clean sweep by winning more than 85 seats and 20-25 seats in rayalseema
and in telangana PRP will sweep in warangal, khammam, nalgonda and some parts in Karim naganr which will get 30-40 seats.
November 8, 2008 at 7:20 AM
In andhra all your predictionsare wrong mr raj. why , as u told kapus are 15% . but they spraed all andhra. but in godavari disrticts all shedule caste and bachward castes are against kapus including bhramins, yadavas, shetty balijas, gavaras visyas.and in west godavari , krishna, guntur, nellore, ongole, khammam kamma are more than 25% to 40% in 80 seats. . becausre these people are concentrated in these areas only. In nortern andhra koppula velama who are more than 25% in 30seats are stand behind tdp in srikakulam, vizayanagaram and vizag..chiru may get majority in east godavari . . in telangana tdp may get (with cpm and trs) 60 to 80. i rayalaseema cong will lead in cuddapha , kurnool, and chittor, there are also tdp may get some 6 to 10 seats. in anatapur tdp will lead, .in telangana and in andhra chiru party will spoil or divide most of thecong votes . where kapus and munnuru kapus are strong vote bank to cong earlier now joined with chiruthats why costal tdp is main party .in rayalaseema cong will lead. In telangana tdp ,trs may lead. Chiranjeevi spoil cong chances and may get less than 40 seats. my
November 13, 2008 at 11:31 PM
Yes exactly,srinivasaraosharma is correct.most of the kapu’s in costal region are vote bank for congress earlier now joining with chiru may be gain for TDP.
November 13, 2008 at 11:35 PM
one point need to understand most of the chiru fans were against Balayya and TDP so definitely PRP wont split much vote bank at the cost of TDP but congress.
November 16, 2008 at 1:47 PM
I REQUEST THE PEOPLE OF ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU TOBE INDIANS FIRST AND THEN YOUR LANGUAGE/STATE
PLEASE PLEASE PEOPLE OF AP AND TN , DO NOT VOTE FOR CONGRESS PARTY……..
CONGRESS PARTY IS ANTI HINDU/ANTI INDIA/ ANTI NATIONALISM
November 16, 2008 at 1:47 PM
I REQUEST THE PEOPLE OF ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU TOBE INDIANS FIRST AND THEN YOUR LANGUAGE/STATE
PLEASE PLEASE PEOPLE OF AP AND TN , DO NOT VOTE FOR CONGRESS PARTY……..
CONGRESS PARTY IS ANTI HINDU/ANTI INDIA/ ANTI NATIONALISM
November 21, 2008 at 9:08 AM
yes its true that kerala is alunatic asylum,only two fronts are dominating like ldf and udf both are having some persontage of muslim and christian votes when udf is having muslim league the ldf tried to find some extremeist in ldf so they where flexible to extremist of muslim which made some terrorist in kannur
people of kerala should at least find the double game of marxist, if this happens udf will win in 9, ldf 10 , 1 may get for bjp this time in kerala
if siddarammaiyya joins bjp then bjp will sweep in karnataka too coz of alva issue also
rajnikantyh may not join bjp, if so bjp may gain 5 seats from tamilnadu
November 23, 2008 at 1:31 AM
The karnataka state situation is some what looking unpredictable. There were lot of hopes on new Govt. It is already 6 months , but no significant chnage sin te state, Even the CM admits it.But People of Karnataka generally do not consider State and Parliament as the same,so Thats a plus point for BJP, If they were judged by present govt’s governance(atleast until now) BJP may end up in 15 seats,Giving INC arnd 7 seats and JDS 6 seats. IF govt performs well in next 6 months BJP Can even fetch upto 24 seats..
November 25, 2008 at 12:33 AM
Telanga status for MLA seats:
The currrent situation in andhra pradesh has been changing day by day,TDP is gaining its lost roots.TDP is clear in forming and supporting telangana.TDP definately will do well in telangana region and with the aliance of Communist are going sweep many parts of telangana. With unclear agenda on telangana issue Congress is going to loose most of the telangana region.The corruption is very high and telanga is derailed from development,hyderabad has witnessed negative growth.
If TRS joins TDP then TDP is unstoppable.
TDP+CPI+CPM- 60
If TDP+TRS+CPI+CPM -85
Congress:15 to 20(With a difficulty)
PRP+NTPP-2 – 3
If TRS+Congress -45
BJP-2
Andhra status:
Because of PRP, TDP is going to gain:
Reason:
Because of cast politics PRP might be doing well in east godavari,and at the same TDP will do better in west godavri due the split in votes of congress by PRP.
In coastal region due the split of votes between PRP and congress congress will be loosing the base,and TDP vote shre will not affected.
Congess:20
TDP:60
PRP:20
Rayalaseema Region:
Because of chranjeevi TDP is going to do well in rayalaseema.All the congress vote share is going drop by 5 to 6 % as copmpared to last year.These lost votes are added to TDP vote share.Even balakrishana factor will be added to TDP.
Here congress will be in some what better position as compared to other regions.
TDP:60
Congress:35
PRP:1(If luck favours)
On the whole chiranjeevi factor will benifit TDP.
Over all AP:
TDP:160 TO 170
Congress:80 to 90
PRP:35 to 40
Bjp:2 to 3
TRS:10 TO 15
Over all
November 25, 2008 at 11:40 AM
TDP will emerge as leading party in telangana.Congress is no where in the contest,the contest is going to be in between TDP and PRP.
TDP-150 – to 170
Congress-50 – 60
PRP-45-50
TRS-15
BJP-1 – 2
CPI-CPM-15 – 20
December 3, 2008 at 12:45 PM
With the latest developmetns in andhra the TDP alliance with CPI and CPM will give strength to TDP.Even there are equal chances of forming a
alliance with TRS which will sweep the telangana.Congress will be totally diappeared from telangana.Even in andhra region congress will go out of the picture.Rayalaseema congress amy do well.
Praja rajyam may play crusial role in andhra but according to predictions
prajarajyam is not going to do any miracles.
Congress alone fights then 80 to 90
TDP+TRS+CPI+CPM will get 180 to 190
PRP will get 30 to 40
December 3, 2008 at 3:25 PM
u are an amateur BJP supporter
I am a kannadiga. Karnataka will be split 13-13-2 btw the BJP congress and JDS and in case of a JDS congress coalition it will be 23-5 against the BJP
Kerala will be 10-9-1 for congress-LEft-NDA
Tamil nadu is highly unpredictable and is fully based on alliances. anyone with vijaykantha DMDK will benefit
Andhra i think 19-13-7-3 UPA-TDP-Chiru- OTHERS
December 3, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Hi Friends, I dont understand why People are thinking TDP to be still a force in AP. It is reduced to Kamma-Madiga Party.
In Telanagana Region, in may 2008 by-Elections, KCR found it hard to retain his MP Seat. People of Telangana No Longer trust TRS.
Devender Goud’s Party is maintaining a low profile and He is travelling across all the ten districts. BJP’s Sankalpa Yatra was also a success. It seems more likely that BJP And Nav Telangana Praja Party are likely to form an Alliance. Another Political Party, Lok Satta of Dr. Jai Prakash Narayan is likely to join hands with BJP.
Chiru may go alone though he indicated he may form a feeble alliance with BJP but has constantly declined to be a Part of NDA.
TDP-TRS-BSP-CPI-CPM are supposed to form a Grand alliance. Congress, NTR-TDP-Lakshmi Parvati Group and MIM(Majlis-e-muthalhil) may form an alliance
If Narendra Bhai Modi Campaigns in Hyderabad and in Telangana, He can Polarize The Hindu Votes to BJP Camp. Remember, in Hyderabad The Muslim population is only about 40-42%, so if BJP Gets 45% of The Votes, clearly BJP Can Win in addition to Secunderabad!!!!
so, in my View in Telangana, BJP-NTPP-Lok Satta and Telangana Janata Party(which has 2 assembly seats in the present assembly and is related to Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party) would get about 7 seats, TDP-TRS-BSP-CPI-CPM would get about 5 seats,Congress about 3 and Praja Rajyam 2.
In Rayalaseema, of the 8 seats, Congress would win about 6 seats while TDP-BSP-CI-CPM may win 1-2 and Praja Rajyam would at the most win 1 seat here. This is the region where BJP has almost NO Presence in AP.
In Coastal Andhra Pradesh, we have in total 17 seats, in which, Congress is extremely strong in South Coastal District. With Nethuramalli Janardhan Reddy contesting the Nellore Parliamentary seat, Congress is for sure going to retain this one. Congress is also strong in Bapatla. In Ongole, Tenali it would be a fierce fight between Congress, and TDP. Bezawada, Guntur, Eluru, Machalipatnam, Rajamundry, Kakinanda, Visakhapatnam and other Coastal District would offer a fierce Traingular and in certain cases quadrangular fights. Remember, BJP is strong in Rajamundry, Kakinada and Visakhapatnam which has about 30% Brahmin Population. If Brahmins come out in large proportion in Visakhapatnam, BJP is sure to Win from here even if it contests all alone.
December 3, 2008 at 3:37 PM
srivatsa, you are a pseudo secular Anti BJP guy.
you seem to be a congressi and an Anti-National.
if congress can manage even 100 seats in next election, it would be a Great Wonder.
December 3, 2008 at 3:42 PM
So my Analysis for AP is that congress- MIM would get about 120 seats
TDP-TRS-BSP-CPI-CPM would get 75 seats
Praja Rajyam Party would be able to get 60 seats and the remaining 40 Seats for BJP- Lok Satta Nava Telangana Praja Party
ofcourse this is a Rough Estimation.
December 9, 2008 at 1:10 PM
In AP chiru will spoil TDP to get many seats , so results would be like cong 15 TDP 10 -12 PRP 10 TRS 4-6 OTHERS remaining seats
But IN TAMIL NADU vijayakanth can not make like chiru in AP, Vijaykanth may get 10 -12 % votes but he can not win single in up comping elections if he contest the election without alliance
December 9, 2008 at 2:56 PM
I do not think ADMK alliance has the chance to win more than 20 seats
Because up coming MP election triangle contest would be in tamil nadu this will give Ideal chance to win more seats to DMK alliance and also i like to say one more thing the ADMK may get 10+ seats with allies it will reach to halfway mark with include pondy ,do not compare PMK and DDMK, PMK strong presence in northern dts and western dts of tamil nadu so with out PMK on one could win at least 15 seats in tamil , no one should forget vanniyar communities comprise nearly 12-14 % of tamil nadu total population , vanniyar community is the single largest caste in TN ,
December 20, 2008 at 1:40 PM
ADMK alliance is going to SWEEP this time in Tamil Nadu. There is a very high ANTI INCUMBENCY wave in tamil nadu. Simply go thru the 2006 assembly election results, ADMK lost 20 seats by less than 2000 votes. This time without support of communists, frequent power cuts, industrial slowdown, inflation and lot of corruption I dont see why even DMK people themselves will vote for that party. Even though Maran brothers have patched up with DMK, I still dont see SUN NEWS favoring DMK. Remember, during 2006 elections SUN TV was one of the major factors in marketing DMK’s promises. And I dont think it will be repeated. ADMK still is the single largest party in tamil nadu and a triangular contest will more likely benefit them. DMDK even if it goes with BJP may not get a single seat as they dont have enough percentage of votes.
Chennai, once considered to be strong hold of DMK has now changed to ADMK due to uninterrupted water supply given during ADMK regime, rowdism was never an issue during jayalalitha’s period. Now forward bloc has also given support to ADMK which was missing in 2006 and now they can capture back the southern seats which they lost. In Tamil Nadu people are more worried about local politics than national politics, so I see chances of ADMK sweeping all 40 seats a high possibility.
December 23, 2008 at 12:39 PM
I think chiru wil change the political eqns.Day by day PRP wil become stronger. we have to accept it. at the same time CON is already in safe position.
as per my analysys :
CON: 85-95, TDP: 60-70, PRP: 80-90, TRS: 15-20, Others: 20-30
let us see what wil happen.
December 28, 2008 at 2:29 AM
TELLER urs is a total mis calculation. What is the basis for ur prediction. Don’t get carried away by congress propognada or the Congress supporting Tv channels Tv9 and NTV or TDP channesl TV5 ETv2. Just go through the history of last 4 decaded and trends. It is ridiculous to say TRS would get 15. Are you assuming it is TRS against TDP+Cong+BJP+PRP+NTP+CPM+CPI+MIM+etc? If you can just check out the elections statistics of 2004 or the recent elections, outside HYD city, TRS has a solid vote base of 25 to 35 percent. TRS most probably going with TDP combine will get 90 percent of the seats it will contest, most probably 45.
More realistic estimate would be
TDP+TRS+others in Telangana would be 100+
NTP+PRP 5 to 15
congress 5 to 15 (Could as well go to less than 5).
So TDP has a better chance of crossing 100 in the state. While PRP has to toil out in Andhra and rayalaseema to get over 100.
In andhra it would be a two way between TDP and PRP while in Rseema it would be a three way contest.
All in all TDP has a better chance to cross 100 than any other party.
In loksabha it will be a sweep fro TDP TRS etc.
TRS 7to 10, TDP 15 to 20 CPs 2 ro 4, BJP 2 MIM 0 and congress 2 to 10. Picture is still clear.
IF one analyzes the voting pattern over last 25 years. TDP has a solid base of 30 percent. Congress 30. others 20 and floating 20.
With TRS arrival in Telangana it is TRS 25 percent, TDP 30 and congress 25 percent. CPI CMP and BJP 15 percent and MIM 2-3 percent. With arrival of PRP assuming they would eat into all (more into congress for obvious reasons) it would be TRS 20, TDP 20 to 25 Congress 15 to 20. Other parties have a loyal vote base so only these parties would suffer. PRP expected to get around 20 – 30 percent. But with TDP TRS and CPs having 45+ vote share they could beat congress and PRP with around 15 to 25 each.
Expect in the case of a land slide for Chiru like NTR in 80s(which obviously is not the case) TDP would get around 120 and CPs around 15 . TRS around 40 forming the government.
TRS and TDP with around 30 – 35 MPs amongst them would be forced to support NDA to keep the congress out. Third front would cease to exist the day results come out for loksabha 2009.
December 28, 2008 at 2:44 AM
KARIM NAGAR this time congress is going to lose the deposit.
Funny some people dont know what happened in recent re polls. Most of people didn’t vote as they expected a victory anyway. But when results were declared, the whole constituency was on tenter hooks. Now they are going to turn out in such huge numbers, now that there would be alliance with some other party(TDP most probably which also has considerable vote share) Congress would be losing its deposit in karim nagar lok sabha elections and also in most other seats across telangana. Even Madhu Yashki Gowd(Staunch supporter of telangana in Congress ,chamcha(close aide) of Rahul gandhi) , Venkataswamy(senior most c congress MP in India) are expecting a miracle to win the elections in 2009.
December 30, 2008 at 12:03 PM
as we see now it is bjp who will win the race ,in south it started the threshold with karnataka , if this continue bjp will get 24 seats in karnataka,ap and tamilnadu ,doubt of getting aseat,kerala bjp may losse its seats ,i feel in kerala udf may get 12 seats and ldf can gain 8 seats
December 31, 2008 at 5:24 PM
pbzfvbwowhvzfgjiwell, hi admin adn people nice forum indeed. how’s life? hope it’s introduce branch
December 31, 2008 at 6:15 PM
Dear Srinivas Rao Sharma Garu, in Coastal Areas where Brahmins, Gavara Vysyas are strong. BJP may do well if they can romp in seety balija and yadavs.
In Telangan, BJP has to get back Vijayashanti and she should be made to contest against KCR.
If BJP Does can do well in Telangana, I would be very Happy.
Visakhaptnam has about 30% Brahmin Population. They should come out and vote decisively in Favour of BJP.
January 2, 2009 at 8:40 PM
HI ,
CONGRESS WILL SWEEP IN ANDHRA PRADESH. TDP AND PRP JUST GAIN 4-5 SEATS, THEIR IS NO AGENDA FOR TDP AND PRP EXCEPT BLAMING CONGRESS,VOTER CANT DIGEST THIS STUPID THINGS. WAIT AND SEE.
January 3, 2009 at 3:43 AM
Guys!
I was disappointed with election results in recent assembly elections. I expected BJP to lose in Rajasthan after caste fights between Meenas and Gujjars.
The recent elections have shown that BJP has been unable to project a progressive and decisive leadership in Delhi. I hope they make these changes and select clean candidates in 2009. As recent events shown, the PM and Sonia are anti-national traitors who have no agenda other than to create religious hatred in muslim to gain their votebank. Unfortunately, BJP is doing nothing in UP. They have to get 30-35 seats in UP. The Mulyam and CON party alliance in UP might do well. AP is a mess. I hope CON party does not get more than 15 MP seats in AP. If people in AP and TN are smart, they will vote for whatever party at the state but vote for BJP at he center. Are they smart enough to do that?
January 3, 2009 at 8:54 AM
From the current situation it appears that 2009 will throw up another hung parliament wherein the UPA may have about 190-210 seats NDA about 180-190 seats and the balance to various regional parties that include the left parties.A repaet of the period 1996 top 1998 is likely. A third front grouping with outside support from the Congress is likely to come to ‘power’.The Congress will hope to expose this configeration to the people and when they feel that the time is ripe dump the Govt. The DMK Congress alliance will fall apart in the process even as the Lankan army pushes the LTTE from an army to a Guerilla outfit. Congress is waiting for Prabhakaran to be killed or captured before they snap ties with the DMK and move towards the Vijayakanth party.
January 3, 2009 at 9:59 AM
ore turukoda naveed, dream a lot.
your yesupada samuel rahim will be a loser soon.
chiru is cutting into congress votebank more than TDP
in Telangana, congress will be routed in 2009 despite populist measures.
January 3, 2009 at 6:41 PM
Lotus will take Andhra Pradesh by storm
In Andhra Pradesh the most likely outcome for the Lok Sabha elections is Congress: 14, TDP: 10, PRP: 7, BJP: 4,TRS: 3, MIM: 1
In Telengana and Hyderabad TRS is still no 1 closely followed by BJP. In Coastal its triangular Congress, PRP and TDP with BJP as a spoiler
In Rayalsema two way contest between Congress and TDP with again BJP as a spoiler. The important thing is by now BJP has got a votebank of 40-50 thousand in every constituency of Andhra Pradesh and as people vote differently for a Lok Sabha election it is only the BJP which will be the ultimate gainer. If BJP, NTTP and PRP come together they may get majority in the Vidhan Sabha elections as well.
January 3, 2009 at 9:03 PM
Usually in Lok sabha elections due to the size of the electorate the seats dont get split according to the share of votes and due to this parties that command 15 to 20% vote can pick up seats only in they are concentrated in a few constituencies. Voters also generally distinguish between also rans and the main contestants. In AP from all accounts it appears that the Congress may sweep the election due to the split of the anti Congress vote. I would not be surprised to see the Congress getting as many as 35 to 36 seats in that state.
January 5, 2009 at 12:53 PM
Mr. KRS Reddy dont show partiality. tell the fact. dont judge the result based on previous statistics. comparing to 2004 elections , TDP is in a bad and week position now. some strong leaders are already left from the party…ok….tell me the names of 10 strong leaders in TDP now. why Chandrababu is trying to use NTR family. this issue itself
indicates the weekness of TDP.
people r watching every thing.
let us see what wil happen.
January 5, 2009 at 1:03 PM
If PRP is a week one then why all the major parties r worrying about it.
there r so many parties in AP.
navatelangana, tallitelangana, loksatta, praja party, CPI,CPM..etc.
PRP is latest one.
so….they r agreed as PRP is a 3rd biggest one in AP.
January 5, 2009 at 4:34 PM
PRP should go with BJP in Andhra Pradesh if it really wants to be ruling Party in Andhra Pradesh. Around 20% vote share of PRP and 10% of BJP, in total 30% could make them the largest alliance in the state. There is a strong anti-incumbancy against congress government at the centre and BJP being its principal opponent may get these votes.
So, Chiru should unhesitantly join with BJP. The whole of Andhra Pradesh will respond positively to such a combination.
January 6, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Dear Prasad, chiru is another psuedo secular sick politician lobbying for minority votes.
BJP Should go it alone and can take everyone by surprise in Telangana and in certain constituencies in Coastal AP.
BJP Can wrest Hyd from MIM if Modi Ji is used as a Star Campaigner.
in my View BJP Can win 5 seats in Telangana and 2 in Coastal Andhra Pradesh on it’s own.
January 6, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Hari, congress has recently lost ZPTC By Polls
and in coastal AP They won 2 of the three only where there was NO PRP Candidate.
This tells us congress is losing in AP.
NO Way that INC would win more than 15 seats in AP
in Telangana, they would face a rout.
Already Congress leaders from Telangana are talking of an Alliance with TRS though in all possibility, TRS Would decline the offer or else TRS Would face the same fate as congress.
TDP-Left-TRS-BSP Alliance can prove to be a serious threat as well to congress.
January 7, 2009 at 7:31 AM
Raj, What u say may be good news but we cannot extrapolate based on local body polls. In Telengana region there appear to be more parties vying for the share of vote that goes with separate Telengana movement. These naturally will split the vote and although congress may loose a share in vote, it may be able to retain sufficient vote to be ahead of other parties. Now what remains to be seen is whether PRP is eating into the Congress vote share or the TDP vote share. The only saving grace is that if there is intense multi cornered contests the BJP may gain a few seats if it can expand its vote share in those seats where it already has about 20% plus vote share.
January 7, 2009 at 2:49 PM
This time Andhra Pradesh and U.P are two States which can be called as sephologists nightmare. Nobody knows which way the wind is blowing in both the states.
For Andhra Pradesh projecting seats will be a difficult task but I expect the following vote share for different Parties for Lok Sabha Elections:
Congress: 30% (13 seats)
TDP+Left+TRS: 32% (15 seats)
PRP: 18% (8 seats)
BJP: 14% (5 seats)
MIM and Others: 6% (1 seat)
For Assembly Elections the Vote sahre and number of seats could be as following-
Congress: 32% (90-100 seats)
TDP+Left+TRS: 28% (100-110 seats)
PRP: 20% (70-80 seats)
BJP: 10% (15-20 seats)
MIM, BSP, SP, Lok Satta and Others: 10% (19-25 seats)
January 7, 2009 at 6:20 PM
Siva, Your analysis projecting seats in proportion to votes will work only if votes of the respective parties are concentrated quite in consonance to the seat projection. For eg; BJP with 14% vote can win 5 seats to the Lok sabha only if it can get atleast 35% of the vote in the seats that it hopes to win. If we take the case of Hyderabad Lok sabha seat the BJP for the last few elections come second with about 30% vote but never looked like winning the seat as MIM has always got over 50% of the votes there. Perhaps the BJP’s best shot in AP is the Secunderbad seat wherein in a multi cornered contest the BJP can pick the seat with about 35to 40% vote. Surprisingly the BJP can pick more seats in the assembly with a lesser vote share. As regards UP Mayawati has had her first major embarrasment. It remain to be seen as to whether this is going to benefit the BJP or the SP grouping that includes the Congress. For the BJP this has provided an window of opportunity to stage a comeback. The BJP must find a fresh face to put forward its ideology in a convincing manner as Advani did for the party almost 2 decades back.
January 7, 2009 at 6:21 PM
Dear Siva, believe, me UP would go The BSP Way unless the voter turnout increases upto 60% atleast. If the voter turnout is going to remain a low 48% as in previous elections, it would be a cakewalk for BSP.
however, if voter turnout comes to b e a surprisngly high 60%, there would be trouble for BSP.
UP has seen no developmental or Populist Schemes even after two years of remaining in power.
as of now my prediction is BSP: 35-40
BJP-RLD: 20-25
SP- INC : 20-25
In Andhra Pradesh , BJP Would be the main gainer in Telangana.
Never underestimate BJP in Telangana. The People of Telangana who by now have realized that only A National Party can Bring in Legislature in Parliament for the creation of a seperate state would certainly vote overwhelmingly in favour of BJP atleast in LokSabha Polls.
Praja Rajyam Party may not be a huge success in Telangana, thatz one of the reasons, PRP Was Vying for TRS which has decided to go with Grand Alliance call of Chandra Babu Naidu. However, This may not have huge success in Telangana for CPM a part of The Grand Alliance constituting of TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI is against the bifurcation of the state and CPM Secretary B.V.Raghavulu has expressed confidence that TRS Would Not raise The Telangana agenda when on a common platform.
Nav Telangana, which is struggling to find itself as a party(the res[ponse to NTP formed by Devendra goud has been poor so far) is parleying with PRP Which is directionless as far as National Politics are concerned.
With YSR Being openly opposed to Bifurcvation of The State, and BJP Taking lead on Telangana Issue, The BJP is surely in the race and would garner about 25% of the popular vote in Telangana which would certainly Yield BJP atleast 5-7 seats in The T-Region. Also in Assembly BJP can win about 30 Seats in The T-Region.
However, BJP would find it hard in Coastal Andhra Except Visakhapatnam(which has a Huge Brahmin Population and where it’s candidate D V Subba Rao, a former Mayor of The City is in The Fray).
In Rajamundry, they have chosen a weak candidate instead of recalling SBPBP Satyanarayana Rao who as an Independent polled 30% of the popular vote in the previous election.
Again in Rayalaseema, BJP doesnt have a Strong Base.
In Telangana, The primary contestant will be BJP and TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI while, Congress and NTP- PRP and others together would be winning a paltry 5 out of 17.
my Ananlysis for Telangana :
BJP — 5-7 Seats
TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI — 5-7 Seats
Congress -MIM — 2-3 seats
(BJP Can Wrest Hyderabad from MIM If Modiji Campaigns there)
NTP-PRP — 2-3 Seats
for Assembly : BJP — 25-30
TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI —- 35-45
INC-MIM — 25-30
NTP-PRP : 20-25
In The Rest of Andhra Pradesh : Congress would sweep in Rayalaseema
PRP and TDP-CPM-CPI (TRS Being a non entity here) would have a tight contest. BSP Would act as a spoiler for congress here.
Despite multi cornered contest, except in Visakhapatnam for the said reasons, BJP Would find hard c to cut ice anywhere else.
In Assembly Elections however, together in rayalaseema and Andhra Regions, BJP Can gain about 7-10 assembly segments.
January 7, 2009 at 6:24 PM
Hari Garu, MIM has never stood above 50%
Election Commission results indicvate that MIM recieves about 40% of the popular vote(in previous election it recieved 38% and if you include the splinter group of majlis as well, even then MIM Doesnt get above 42%)
therefore, it’s an over statement to say MIM Gets over 50% of the votes.
BJP Can wrest Hyderabad from MIM iThis Time with Modiji Rallying there
January 7, 2009 at 6:30 PM
Hari, BJP Has it’s vote share concentrated in telangana and particularly in some of the constituencies, it’s vote share is as high as 35 %
In a multi-cornered contest in Telangana, it’s going to be BJP All The Way or atleast would emerge as The Clear Winner, though The Media is underplaying BJP.
BJP Would be The Dark Horase This time in Andhra Pradesh as a whole and in Telangana in Particular.
However, In Andhra and rayalaseema Regions, particularly in the assembly polls (where BJP has practically NO Specific Issue that would Blow Wind The BJP’s way) BJP’s votes may be split by Lok Satta, while they would remain intact in the lok sabha polls.
Anyway, as I said earlier, except in Visakhapatnam, BJP doesnt have a chance besides telangana. However, if Prabhas joins the list of Tollywood Actors campaigning for Parties , BJP Can gain a seat or two more in Lok Sabha.
January 7, 2009 at 6:36 PM
Hari, it’s most likely that Congress vote share would be eaten up by PRP and BSP.
The Kapu’s in the previous election have voted for Congress and this time, they would rally behind PRP.
The Gouds too are most likely to go with NTP and therefore, PRP-NTP alliance is likely to gain 25 % of popular vote.
Congress may still end up as party with the highest vote share but would certainly would lose a lot of seats.
Senior congress leaders from T-Region are quite amprehensive of facing Public and are speaking in different voices and are aware that Telangana People would Not take the betrayal kindly.
Only in Lower Telangana regions, the T-Sentiment isnt so prominent.
But, BSP Which in the previous elections polled 2.5% of popular vote in AP may once again cut into congress vote bank.
The BSP’s effect was nullified last time due to the grand alliance the congress cobbled prior to 14 th general elections.
January 7, 2009 at 6:39 PM
The reason why I expect
PRP to get 18% (8 seats) and
BJP to get 14% (5 seats) is
PRP will do extremely well in Coastal Andhra (especially in east and west Godavari and Srikakulam) where as BJP is likely to give its best ever performance in Telengana. So, PRP may get 35% in Coastal areas and BJP may get up to 25% in Telengana region. So, in a way they will have different pockets of influence. But, if BJP and PRP come together then there could be a completely different scenario.
January 7, 2009 at 6:50 PM
There is NO Scope of BJP-PRP Pre-Poll Alliance with BJP Going with its List.
Further, I want BJP to go alone and Prove themselves as a force in Telangana.
BJP Should not be satisfied merely with karnataka, Telangana would certainly throw it’s weight behind BJP in Lok Sabha Polls and though there might be some cross voting in Assembly elections, still BJP can hold on to atleast 25 assembly segments and can win as many as 7 lok sabha seats in Telnagana
however, BJP’s impact would not be huge anywhere else in AP besides Visakhapatnam.
Kerala is another state, which would prove many of the pundits wrong.
BJP’s Kerala Bandh was a Huge success.
BJP is likely to use Major UnniKrishnan’s Issue in The Kerala Lok Sabha polls.
BJP is likely to win 3 of the 20 Seats from Kerala.
TamilNadu now offers a peculiar scenario.
will Mayawati join ADMK Alliance?
If ADMK-PMK-MDMK-CPM-CPI Form an alliance, they can win atleast 25 seats
BJP And DMDK of Captain vijay Kanth have individually NO Chance to make it to Parliament from TN however, if They snatch an Alliance, in Souther TamilNadu and in some western Regions, They would make huge inroads.
DMK-Congress would suffer heavily in Tamil Nadu in the coming elections.
However, PMK a fence sitter may have a tactical alliance with congress in TamilNadu where, PMK May not contest where congress is and vice versa.
January 8, 2009 at 9:36 AM
Raj, In TN the ADMK has put itself in a winning position even without the PMK. This time the DMK+Congress may end up with around 10 seats.Post electionsthe DMK Cong. alliance will fall apart with the public reason being the centre’s inaction on the LTTE issue. Mayawathi is not a factor in TN but the VCK has a strong base in the Chidambaram ( not P.Chidambaram) Lok sabha seat. The BJP in TN has a strong base only in Nagercoin Lok sabha constituency wherein it has about 20-25% vote share. To win it still needs some support atleast from Sarath Kumar. Vijaykanth is slowly progressing with building his party and waiting for the turmoil that will engulf the DMK post Karunanidhi..
January 8, 2009 at 11:53 AM
Dear Hari, good analysis.
But, I would also like to know your feedback about my analysis on AP and UP.
In TN, BJP has good vote share in coimbatore too. And in Pudukottai they have a strong local leader Thirunavakarasar.
In These three constituencies, BJP should atleast have a tactical understanding with ADMK.
Sarath Kumar is a political Novice and is not going to have any impact. unlike Captain, sarath kumar has no party cadre.
I lived in chennai for over a decade and so am pretty much aware of TN Politics.
It seems PMK would remain in UPA and contest in alliance with Congress which is in alliance with DMK.
I know VCK or Dalit Panthers of India is strong in The Chidambaram constituency as well as in some more central Districts of TN.
Captain is more of a Threat to ADMK then to DMK as Vijaykanth is cutting into traditional ADMK vote base.
will BJP and DMDK have a Seat Sharing is the biggest question.
I am for A BJP – Dr. Subramanian Swamy- DMDK Alliance. BJP is strong in largely urban South Chennai, who are fed up with corrupt T R Baalu.
If there is NO BJP-DMDK Alliance, then in TamilNadu, ADMK-MDMK-Left -Front may win about 25 seats while DMK-Congress-PMK may win the other 15.
However, if Captain notches up a seat adjustment with BJP, then ADMK -Left-MDMK may win about 20 seats,, BJP-DMDK-Dr.Subramanian Swamy about 5 seats and DMK-PMK- Congress about 15
However, if Rajnikanth Pledges His support to BJP or if He Rallies behind L.K.Advani, BJP can win about 5 seats on it’s own!!!
January 8, 2009 at 12:03 PM
Hari, I too feel that post 2009 Election, congress would snap it’s ties with DMK and would support ADMK and PMK would follow the suit.
ADMK Currently has 60 MLAs and is likely to win The By Poll in Madurai. MDMK has 5 MLAs post the death of their madurai MLA.
Congress has 35 MLAs in TN and PMK 18.
since PMK is to stick to congress(Note that PMK’s Anbumani is wedded to Sowmya, TNPCC President’s daughter), the latter too would support ADMK.
together, ADMK, Congress, PMK, MDMK have a strength of 118 in a house of 234. And this exactly the Majic Number required for simple Majority.
Jayalaita would Then install the puppet, O PannerSelvam as CM while congress would have a Lion’s share with Dept. CM post.
Though I am a Strong Anti-Congress Man and personally wish to see BJP, in TN, it’s a distant dream if ever possible. And DMK is the biggest Enemy of Hindu Nationalism and hence, I would like to see The Defeat and Decay of DMK.
After losing The CM’s Chair before the completion of The Term, Karu will die out of shock or would go into a state of coma and there would be an End to Anti-Hindu Dravidian Parties.
BJP needs a Telangana like Sentiment to make a Huge Impact in TN.
January 8, 2009 at 4:50 PM
Raj, I must respect your analysis on AP as I from TN and base my assessments on AP from inputs I get from various sources. From all these accounts I get the impression that PRP has preovided a vent for the some what marginalised ‘Kapu’ community to get back against the dominant ‘Naidus’ who form the back bone of the TDP. The ‘Telengana factor has further compouded the situation. Most of the assessments that are based on traditional vote bank percentages may not work out. The BJP in AP has had some strong pockets of influence which when translated into a Lok sabha election may help as they are certainly the most likely grouping that can overtake the UPA tally. Having said that thses factors can atmost tilt only about 3% votes and without a powerful local face who can project the ideology effectively in a new way performance on the ground may not happen.
As regards your assessment on TN, Sarath kumar is already eating into the Nadar caste base of the BJP. They do need an understanding with Sarath atleast for Nagercoil. The BJP has lost substantial ground in Coimbatore and barring a decent vote share in Coimbatore West and in TIrupur segments their performance there will be quite poor. Pudukottai is a largely rural area and even if Thirunavakkarasu himself contests it may just do well only in the Aranthagi segment.
January 9, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Dear Hari, Though I am enrolled as A TN Voter courtesey of our stay in chennai since ’95, I have little knowledge about Other Regions in TN.
However, as I am staying abroad doing my PhD, I cant cast my vote.
That aside, in AP, They have Local Strong Leaders in certain areas and in’98 when BJP Went alone in Polls , had polled 26% of The Popular Vote in Telangana. ofcourse, back then there was NO TRSbut, The T-Sentiment was Strong at that time.
This time around, with Goud proving to be a cropper and TRS which has lost Credibility for they dont have a Strong National Party, atleast in LokSabha Polls BJP would win about 7 seats.
In assembly however, they may end up with just around 25-30 seats.
TN is certainly alarming for BJP.
They should have an Understanding with Sarath Kumar
I personally feel that DMDK may not sail with BJP for Captain likes congress which as of now is ally of DMK.
like AP, TN is unpredictable as PMK Has stood firm with UPA and has vowed to fight the elections alongside congress
January 10, 2009 at 1:48 PM
An Appeal to my dear Indians
My brothers and sisters in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu must defeat the Congress, DMK and Left to save India. Please don’t vote Congress, DMK and CPI (M) . Let’s vote for BJP, TDP, PRP, Lok Satta, AIADMK or BSP or any other Party but not Congress and DMK as they have ruined India. If Babar and Aurangzeb demolished Temples these psudo-seculars are out to demolish India it self. For them,
MIM, PDP, AUDF and IUML are secular but NDA is communal
Supporting Afzal, Gilani and Madani is secularism
MF Hussain is secular but Taslima Nasreen is communal
Danish cartoonist is communal who offended Islam but Karunanidhi is secular because he offended Hinduism
Making fun at the sacrifice of Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan (comparing with an animal) is secularism, questioning the sacrifice of Hemant Karkare is secularism, questioning the intention of Delhi Police is secularism but questioning the style of ATS is communalism
SIMI is secular for UPA Ministers but BJP Communal
Supporting Bangladeshi Migrants and AUDF are secular but supporting Kashmiri pundits are communal
Pumping bullets at farmers for 2000 acres in Nandigram is secularism but asking for 100 acres in Amarnath is communalism
Religious Conversion is secularism but re-conversion is communalism
People of AP, TN, Kerala and India must punish these Parties.
January 10, 2009 at 3:47 PM
Vote 4 BJP and Voting for any pseudo secularist will be doomed for The Nation.
January 10, 2009 at 10:18 PM
Its clear that Kerala is split between Congress UDF and Communists LDF.Whereas Karnataka will extend BJP’s western sweep to South.But Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are any persons nightmare because of too many players in the arena.However our national parties will have to surely rely on state parties here who will hold the sway.
January 11, 2009 at 4:13 PM
Here is my Analysis after Karnataka BYPoll elections.
Karnataka can be politically divided into 5 Regions
1)North Karnataka(11 Constituencies comprising of Hyderabad and Mumbai Karnataka regions)
2)Coastal karnataka(3 COnstituencies)
3)Central Karnataka (3 constituencies)
4)Old Mysore (11 Constituencies)
From BYpoll its allmost clear that BJP’s presence in old Mysore isnt that high…
But BJP will surely win 3 out of 4 Bangalore city seats in this region and along with that Mysore seat is sure for BJP.It has high chance of winning Kolar seat and Tumkur seat is 50-50. So I will give 5 seats to BJP,4 seats to JDS and 2 seats to COngress in this region…
BJP will get minimum of 2 seats OF3 from central Karnataka
BJP Is allmost sure to win all 3 coastal seats.
BJP Is most likely to win in all 11 const of North, but we shall assume that it wins in 9 seats…..
That gives BJP19-20 Congress and JDS arnd 4-5 seats each…
January 11, 2009 at 7:38 PM
In tamil nadu, situation is different as AIADMK making alliance with CPM.
So AIADMk+left= 20 seats
DMK+= 17 seats
others 2
BJP-0
January 12, 2009 at 9:03 AM
This time TN is going o go te Amma way. Although she will not sweep the polls like the DMK+ did last time she and her allies may end up around 30 seats.
January 12, 2009 at 6:25 PM
Amma should have gone with BJP if issues are to be considered. But, TN Parties change colours more frequently than chamalion. So, BJP has been betrayed again. But, BJP should form alliance with DMDK, Sarath Kumar and Subramanyam Swamy and with support of Rajnikanth this could turn out to be a third pole in TN politics.
January 17, 2009 at 11:01 AM
umn..
Tirumangalam ByPoll has been won by DMK.
but, let’s hope the same trend doesnt continue in 2009 General Elections
January 18, 2009 at 1:19 PM
Well, in Telangana this time BJP for sure would Win Secunderabad, Hyderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella, Karimnagar. In Addition BJP with Hard Work can also Win in two out of Nizamabad,Zahirabad and Mehaboobnagar.
In Rayalaseema, BJP has Virtually NO Presence and in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, BJP has to do a Proper Social Engineering in order to take advantage of splitting of votes on caste lines between INC,PRP and TDP.
By Doing so, BJP Can Surprise in Visakhapatnam,Vijayawada and one of the two constituencies in The Godavari Districts. Viz, Rajamundry and Narsapur.
January 20, 2009 at 6:35 PM
BJP March On………..LK Advani March On……..people of India are with you and we desperately want to see you as our PM to SAVE INDIA. No Kalyan Singh no Vairosingh can do any damage when the people of India are with you.
January 22, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Hi, I have found that in Hindupur Lok Sabha Constituency, BJP is slowly gaining Momentum as the constituency is being well nurtured by Their Candidate Naresh, Once A Popular Film Actor in Telugu Film Industry, Particularly in Comedy Flicks
January 22, 2009 at 5:25 PM
South India has a total of 130(TN+Pchery: 40, Kerala: 20, Ktaka: 28 and AP: 42) seats. So, according to me the no. of seats BJP likely to get under different circumstances are:
Karnataka- 22 seats (favourable situation) and 18 (adverse situation)
A.P- 8 (favourable situation i.e alliance with NTP (1) and PRP(10)) and 4 (present situation)
T.N- 3 seats (favourable situation i.e alliance with DMDK (4) and Swamy (1) and support from Rajni) and 1 (present situation)
Kerala: 3 (favourable situation) and 1 (present situation)
In total BJP itself will get about 33 seats and the alliance a total of 56 seats if the alliances come through and the situation is favourable. Last time BJP got a total of 18 seats from South India and NDA got 25 seats and in all probability the numebr of seats are likely to double this time. So, good time ahead for BJP and NDA in South India and the routing of UPA and Congress is the writing on the wall. Ofcourse, some positive news for Congress from Kerala.
January 23, 2009 at 8:45 AM
Dear Prasad, In Karnataka BJP is in a Honeymoon Period. For Sure BJP Would Win The Maximum.
In AP, There is NO Pre-Poll Alliance, but BJP Can Still win a minimum of 5 seats in Telangana and with efficient Man Management, can win one each from Coastal Andhra, Visakhapatnam and Rayalaseema, Hindupur.
In TamilNadu, Rajni has to openly come out and Urge His Fan Clubs to Mobilize for BJP, only Then can BJP open It’s Account on it’s Own and can win in 3 seats; Kanyakumari, Coimbatore and Nilgiris.
If They form an Alliance with DMDK, then BJP can also win Tanjavur by naking Thirunavakarsar and SivaGanga by Nominating H.Raja as P Chidambaram is a Weak Candidate though He is A Central Minister. He proved that by contesting alone without pairing up with other parties, he is a poor cropper as in ’99 elections when He came third besides Nachiappan of congress and H.Raja of BJP.
This time, though He would be contesting as INC Candidate, Congress has lost all allies except DMK. since, SivaGanga is in South TN where DMK has a very poor record and with Double Anti-Incumbency both at National as well as state level, PC would for sure lose this time around.
January 23, 2009 at 8:51 AM
In TN, The Jaya Lalitha this time has successfully formed a Mahajout or Maha Kutami. With MDMK And Left already on her side, she is luring PMK which would for sure pull out of The UPA siting The Lankan unrest once polls are announced. Further, VCK of thirumavalavan who controls considerable dalit votes in the southern regions would ally with Jaya.
This leaves INC With DMK alone and hence they would have to struggle in most of the regions except the Chennai-Arcot Divisions.
Now, Capt. Vijaykanth can not take any chances in Lok Sabha Polls as He has so far Not taken any stand on The Lankan Tamil Issues. As He cannot ally with DMK or ADMK, His Only option is to go with BJP or else He would be dumped in Lok Sabha Polls and that would demoralize His cadres
In Kerala, I am sure BJP Would Win Three Seat; Tiruvannathapuram, Palaghat and Kannur/Thrissur
January 23, 2009 at 3:53 PM
hey all,
i dunno how u people analyze kerala..bjp is nowhere in kerala…it is havin some presence in three constituences(namely thiruvananthapuram,palakkad,kasarkode)..bjp may get 2nd place(if u r havin any dbts u can ask any keralite) in Trivandrum only if they field O.Rajagopal(chances r nill 4 the same as it’s almost sure that he will not contest frm trivandrum).They could only manage 3rd last tym,i.e in 2004(when they created high hopes of an upset).Traditionally in kerala it’s a fight btw udf(congress leading) and ldf(cpm leading).bjp got 1,00,000+ votes in 2004 wid Rajagopal..in assembly elections 2006 they could manage only somewhere around 55,000 votes frm tvpm..so frnds 4get tvpm
then it’s palakkad…bjp this tym will b a spectator here.it’s gonna b a strong fight btw congress and cpm..chances of either of them winning is entirely dependent on the candidates chosen…bjp can get max 90,000 votes frm here..
then comes kasarkode..where bjp is having a slight chance of rendering an upset..this is because of it’s closeness to karnataka.But if u r going according to the stats it’s 55%cpm,40%congress,5% bjp.
kannur and thrissur(4get)…kannur is cpm fort and thrissur(dis tym an easy victory 4 congress)..bjp is present here(just 4 namesake)..
There is strong anti-incumbency against the present left front government from all corners.NSS(Nair service society,a strong hindu community) and many christian communities have already stated that they’ll vote against govt(in kerala voting against govt means voting 4 the main opposition party)..so automatically left would be on the loosing side..
in north kerala(9 seats),
left,muslim league is very strong.but due to bad governance they’ll loose some votes dis tym..possibly left-3,udf-5(cong-3,iuml-2),can’t say-1
in mid kerala(5 seats),
traditional congress and kerala congress strong hold…left:0-1;udf:4-5(cong-3-4:ukc(united kerala congress)-1)
in south kerala(6 seats),
both fronts strong here.but slight advantage for congress.this time it will be all congress.cong:4-5,left-1;can’t say-1;
ultimately iuml and ukc are part of upa
so from kerala upa:13-15(cong10-13,iuml-2,ukc-1);left:3-5;undecided-2(most probably in hands of congress due to strong anti-incumbency)
January 23, 2009 at 6:21 PM
Jithu, I think you are just analysing on previous results.
BJP has Improved a lot this time around and they have also got over the infighting which saw BJP lose in 2006 elections.
BJP’s Bandh in The Recent Years has been highly Successful in Kerala and there was complete shut down.
BJP Would Certainly Win 2-3 seats This time in Kerala.
Wait and See
January 23, 2009 at 6:31 PM
BJP Actually has A Fair Chance in Tiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Kannar, Palakkad, Kasargod.
out of these 5, BJPhas Real Chance atleast in Three seats.
January 23, 2009 at 9:42 PM
Dear Raj,
I have been to Kerala a number of times and a few times during elections. The BJP’s champaigning particularly in Trivandrum is always high on decibel and visibility particularly in the main city areas. This however does not translate into votes and the end result is that they generally finish a distant third at best. The BJP there considers the CPM a bigger threat and generally at the grass root go with the Cong.
January 23, 2009 at 9:48 PM
If anybody closely watch congress from past 4 yrs,they have not done anything good for the state except false promises.Insted of empowring poor people they are treating people like dogs like when ever dog is hungry they throw some biscuits to put off the hungryness.No efforts have been initiated to improve GDP and to leverage industrilization.What ever development is AP because of chandrabau naidu’s grace.No industry is looking at andhra pradesh.YSR must know that apart from land allotment
industries want to have proper administration and speedy clearances
permissions.State is in doll drum state.God will save the AP.If we take tale agriculture which is his pet promice at the time election,he has utterly failed to deliver agriculture development.What ever he has done to the agriculture is like powder to face to cover marks on the face.New methods to be followed to develop the agriculture apart form irrigation projects.Not only that his MP’s and MLA’s are chakkas wearing bangle’s their mouths are shut.
What i am seen is that his cabinet is worst cabinet in 50 years.No moto to develop the state.They are just doing YSR bajana to retain their MLA positions. I will say that every congress MLA has to commit sucide then only AP can lead to development.
YSR YSR you have utterly failed.You have no right to be a chief minister of AP.If you continue to CM of AP i request you to give me chippa so that
we all beg on the roads.
Plz getdown from the seat.
New equations in AP:
TDP + TRS +CP I+ CPM-170-190
CONGRESS:70-80
PRP+NTP:20-30
BJP 5-10
Loksatta:1
MIM and others 5
LOKSABHA:
TDP+TRS+CPI+CPM-32
Congress-5 to 10
MIM1
BJP 1
January 23, 2009 at 10:10 PM
Dear Hari, This time it’s Not going to Happen. Last time BJP Came A Close Second in Tiruvananthapuram. The LF is in acomplete disarray this time with infighting between pinrayi vijayan and vs achuttanandan camps. Also The BJO has got over within it’s internal ramblings in The Kerala State unit.
with Huge Anti-Incumbency and Infighting in LF, This is the best time for BJP to win Seats from Kerala.
I am sure, This time, The LDF Would lose a lot in Kerala, while UDF Would Win a majority, BJP Will Win in 3 Seats of the five I have mentioned.
January 23, 2009 at 10:33 PM
Hey Naveen Gadre, it seems you are a kamma and are therefore not giving PRP even a single Lok Sabha Seat.
that aside, the grand alliance has broken even before it is formed.
In AP, none trusts the CPM and CPI except in remote areas and in some quarters of Telangana.
Remember when they contested alone in ’99, the CPI Drew a Blank while CPM won just 2 seats with Gadar’s support.
This time around Gaddar is opposing the communist parties as they have tied up with TDP.
now stop dreaming of The Maha Kutami or grand Alliance of TDP-TRS-CPI(M)-CPI, TRS has Angrily denounced The Alliance and is most likely to join Praja Rajyam and NTP or would go Alone.
BJP has a much higher chance then what you think.
In Telangana, BJP’s T – 100 Campaign is recieving a lot of Attention. The Vijay Sankalp Yatra was A Huge Success with nearly 5 lakhs people Attending The Meet.
The Feb 4th Vijay Sankalp Yatra @ KarimNagar would be A Huge Success again as BJP meet is likely to be Addressed by Sri Narendra Modi.
Narendra Modi Ji’s Campaign in Hyderabad Is Bound to Polarize The Votes and This will Directly Benefit BJP in The Hyderabad as well as Secunderabad and Malkajigiri constituencies. In Addition, The BJP’s Candidate in Chevella is Baddam Balram Reddy who is a strong Regional Figure in Hyderabad Area.
As TRS Chief KCR has decided to shift his constituency from Karimnagar this time, BJP would for sure Win The KarimNagar Constituency as well.
With Hard Work and Mass Mobilization BJP can win two out of three, viz Nizamabad, Mehboobnagar,Warrangal constituencies and can give a tough fight in Nalgonda and the newly constituted Zahirabad Constituency.
BJP is Giving a Lot of Importance to Telangana Leaders like former MP s C Janga Reddy, who is a Strong Votary of Telangana (He was one of The Only Two BJP MPs Elected in ’84 when He Defeated P V Narasimha Rao from now dissolved constituency of Hanamkonda, the other being Dr. A K Patel from Mehsana Gujarat), Sri Bandaru Dattatreya, The Strongest Leader of BJP in Telangana, Former Ministers Ch Vidya Sagar rao and former BJP Legislative Party Leader Sri N Indra Sena Reddy.
The People of Telangana are well aware that Only A National Party can Bring in Legislation to create separate state and hence will vote for BJP. Further, Polarization on Religious Grounds by romping in Sri Narendra Modi Ji will Give Additional Strength and Confidance to BJP in Telangana Region.
In The Rest of Andhra Pradesh , I am Repeatedly saying that with Higher Voter Turn Out BJP Can Win Visakhapatnam Parliamentary Seat, further, They have a Strong Candidate there, Former Mayor Sri
D V Subba Rao and also Win Narsapur as it’s going to be split on caste basis and since The Candidate there is U V Krishnam Raju , The Campaign by Prabhas His Nephew and a popular Telugu Actor will be of great use to BJP there.Further, PRP will field hariram joggiah against whom there is a strong anti-incumbency factor.
Also, The Hindupur seat is another where BJP has high hopes with their candidate and a popular yesteryear actor Naresh Nurturing the constituency well for the past 4 years
My Analysis is BJP in AP Can Win 7 Lok Sabha Seat in Normal Election Mode and 10 Lok Sabha seats in Highly Favourable Mode.
PRP may win about 5 in the coastal Districts
TRS May win about 5-7
Congress , though I hate this christian party, would for sure bag 15 seats even in adverse conditions.
TDP will be The Real Loser.
January 23, 2009 at 10:40 PM
Dear Hari, it seems, Puddukottai is No Longer A Lok Sabha Constituency post delimitation
and has been clubbed under Tirunalveli
What are The Chances of BJP in Ramanathapuram, Kanniyakumari, Siva Ganga,Tirunalveli, Coimbatore,Nilgiris. I Think even after getting Rajni’s Full Support and Rajnikanth’s mobilization of His fan clubs to campaign for BJP, BJP Should Focus Only on These Constituencies.
Is PMK about to Join Jaya led Coalation? There are reports that PMK is about to Quit UPA once the dates for Polls are announced and The Election Campaign Takes up momentum.
This cunning PMK seems to make more money in the mean time and transfer a lot into the accounts of that useless cabinet minister anbumani ramadoss
January 24, 2009 at 10:32 AM
u r analyzing kerala from outside..u r not having a completeand concrete idea on the same…wat i have said is the absolute truth..also bjp in krla is not an united front..alla the major communities have decided tom offer their helping hand to the main opposition party..if u were saying these things about left then i would have agreed(but not for bjp)..it’s too far from reality…man it’s the fact realize………..
January 24, 2009 at 1:14 PM
well, let’s see
wait and watch
anyway, if sonia maino may conspire with doctors and may ge PM Dr. MMS Medically Murdered to get sympathy votes.
The Congress is Prone to such tactics
January 28, 2009 at 12:06 AM
1. Advani should fight election from Gujrat and Kerala(Trivandrum). See result of Trivandrum given below. Do not get surprised.
Candidates Valid Votes in PC
Sl no. Name Party Number Percentage
3 P K VASUDEVAN NAIR CPI 286057 37.45
4 V S SIVAKUMAR INC 231454 30.3
1 O RAJAGOPAL BJP 228052 29.86
It is not very difficult for Advani to win election from Trivandrum. That way B.J.P will create base in Kerala. And for future point of it will be good for B.J.P. Even though if Advani loose election, It would not at all embarrassment for Advani. But other side B.J.P can say, I want to give special prefence and create a base in south state. But I think Advani would win from Gujrat.
(a) If Advani fights from Kerala, B.J.P will get more than 20% votes in Kerala.
(b) If Advani fights from Kerala, B.J.P will win atleast one seat.
(c) If Advani fights from Kerala, Big motiavation for B.J.P workers.
(d) If Advani fights from Kerala, B.J.P will ger 5% to 10% assembly seats.
(e)If Advani fights from Kerala, It will create unstablity for UDP and LDP. It may also possible, both may not get majority. It will be big achievement for B.J.P. One thing I want to make it very clear, without the help of Left ,Congress can not form government in centre. In this case congress will support Left in Kerala assembly
January 28, 2009 at 1:26 AM
i want BJP condition in 2009 General election
January 28, 2009 at 3:28 PM
Elections are announced, likely to be held between 8th of April and 15th of may.
Really a Long one to go.
January 28, 2009 at 8:50 PM
My main aim is B.J.P create base on own. How can it be done. B.J.P should involve film actor. B.J.P should give ticket to strong dissident of DMK . If he loose seat then B.J.P should give Rajya Sabha seat. This way B.J.P may create base in Tamilnadu. Why am i talking about base, so that in next election B.J.P can win 5 to 10 seats without alliance. And alliance it may be more than 10.
January 28, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Well, as I check, Post delimitation, BJP has fair chance of winning in South Chennai. Mylapore, T.Nagar and Velachery have Strong Brahmin Population as well as Trader Community.
Virugambakam may vote for DMDK , while Saidapet division would vote for DMK and Shollinganallur may vote for AIADMK
Rajnikanth should Actively Campaign for L K Advani’s Prime Ministership starting from Feb-March.
January 29, 2009 at 12:41 PM
Hi,
1. B.J.P may announce Rajnikant as Deputy priminister.In this case B.J.P would get 10 seats from Tamilnadu.
2. B.J.P should tamil movement in TN because of Srilanka issue.
3. Try to have alliance with PMK,MDMK.
4. Call lot film actor.
5. Use top dissident leader. if they loose give them Rajya Sabha ticket
6. Do Vikas Rath Yatra.
January 29, 2009 at 2:43 PM
How many Dpt PM do you want BJP to announce
Lol
anyway, your argument is cute
January 29, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Hi,
I am trying to explore all possibilities. I am trying to search speedy process. If i talk Advani, Sushma, Naidu and deputy P.M. If B.J.P may get good no. of seats, then it is o.k. otherwise it useless. There may be negative effect, Because people can Advani is going to fight from two place, it means even though Advani is not sure about own win,How can party win election.
Second thing small parties( TDP,TRS,PRP,TMC,DMK,AIADMK) are blackmailing to B.J.P. I do not like this. B.J.P has to gain immediately respectable position in TN,WB,AP,Kerala. What is it
TN — 10
WB– 10
Ap — 12
Kerala –5
Then these parties will Advani’s feet because they can not form gov in own state without the help of B.J.P. That time B.J.P would not be communal at all to these parties. Like, Kalyan Singh is not communal for Amar Singh before Kalyan Singh was communal.
Ritesh Gupta
January 29, 2009 at 3:55 PM
In Kerala BJP Has a fair chance of winning 2 seats this time. 5 is Day Dreaming.
TamilNadu if Rajnikanth puts his weight behind Advani, then BJP can surprise political pundits and win as many as 5-6 seats on its own.
In AP, yes, in the Telangana Region in Particular BJP has high stakes
WB is a real hard state for BJP unless they are successful in Polarizing the votes and The High Upper Caste Population teaches a fitting lesson to commies and inc-tmc combine
January 29, 2009 at 10:59 PM
In TN
PMK + BJP + MDMK + DMDK + RajniKant = 10 (BJP) + 10 (others)
This combination is possible or not, if possible then they may get 20 seats or not.
Give one seat of RajyaShabha to each (PMK + BJP + MDMK + DMDK) as a gift or give 10000 crore rupees project in their constituency.
January 30, 2009 at 3:00 AM
Well, PMK Would sail with Jaya and Leftists.
MDMK is already in Jaya’s alliance who has allied with the Left.
DMDK And PMK Would Never come together as PMK Hates Captain VijayKanth.
VijayKanth may not team up with Rajni as it would lead to Ego clashes between Them.
This Leaves, BJP to go Alone and Take Rajni’s Support and if Rajni Puts His Weight behind LK Advani Ji, then BJP is certain to win some seats particularly in The South and West.
Even With Rajni’s Support, BJP Should Concentrate Mainly on The Following Constituencies in TN:
South Chennai, Coimbatore, Kanniyakumari(Most Easy Targets if proper ground work is done) and Sivaganga, Tirunalveli, Tanjavur, Ramanathapuram and should Leave Madurai to Dr. Subramanian Swamy
January 30, 2009 at 10:21 PM
Will Rajnikant support BJP? if yes why?
January 31, 2009 at 12:09 AM
well Rajnikanth is an Admirer of L K Advani, further, He has Strong Right Wing views.
Hence BJP Should convince Rajni to campaign for BJP in TN as They are likely to go alone in TN.
Jayalalihaa is sure to form a Grand Alliance that Involves Along with her AIADMK, The CPI(M),CPI,MDMK her Present Allies and would successfully romp in PMK as well
February 1, 2009 at 12:04 AM
Rajnikant can go with DMK or AIADMK.
February 1, 2009 at 3:28 AM
NOPE.
He Would NOT
February 1, 2009 at 2:26 PM
Hi All,
Andhra Pradesh Elections Results 2009:
Telangana Area
Maha Kutami – == 40
TDP+ CPM + CPI+ TRS
Congress == 35
PRP + NTP + LOK SATTA == 40
Andhra Area
PRP + NTP + LOK SATTA == 50
Maha Kutami == 35
Congress == 35
Rayalaseema Area
PRP + NTP + LOK SATTA == 14
Maha Kutami == 15
Congress == 30
—————————————————————————
Total
PRP + NTP + LOK SATTA == 114
Maha Kutami == 90
Congress == 100
No Clear Winner — PRP can form government with outside support from
February 1, 2009 at 3:36 PM
Hi,
PRP’s job is to cut Congress and (TDP+TRS) votes and provide help to BJP. This the reason it has been formed. PRP’s performance will be worst, it will fourth no. party after election.
Chiranjivi is not NTR. When NTR came into power there was no opposition. Pelople was not at all happy with congress. This time situation is different.
February 1, 2009 at 5:18 PM
Citizen of AP, you are probably A PRP supporter belonging to Minority community
anyway, Even adverse critics of TDP feel, Grand Alliance would emerge as front runner
you have completely Neglected BJP in Telangana. I would like to bring to Everybody’s Notice that in ’98 elections, when BJP contested alone, in Telangana Region BJP Won 26% of The Popular Vote.
And Lok Satta has NOPT Entered into an alliance with PRP.
NTP has failed to make any impact
PRP is NOT popular in Telangana
February 1, 2009 at 5:19 PM
forgot to Add, even congress leaders fear, that congress would face a rout in Telangana
February 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM
Well Said R, But, I wonder if PRP can cut into the votes of TDP.
Kapus have been traditionally voting for congress and now they would vote for PRP.
In Telangana kapus are very less in number
Devender goud’s loss has NOT Made any Impact as percieved earlier.
bjp Should Get Tribals on it’s side from congress on Telangana sentiment
February 1, 2009 at 9:37 PM
Can BJP cut TRS and TDP votes in Telagana.
February 1, 2009 at 11:48 PM
Well, BJP can certainly Repeat it’s ’98 Performance in The Telangana Region when BJP Polled 16%of The Popular Vote.
Now, into whose Vote Bank would They make a dent into cant be answered.
but for sure, in Telangana Region of AP: INC-MIM would be a Real Loser while PRP-NTP would find it Hard to attain Success.
February 3, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Great News from Hyderabad!!!
The Muslim Votes in Hyderabad would be split this time around between The Communal and Anti-National Terrorising majlis and an Independent candidate , Editor of Shiasat on whom majlis led an attack recently. This Independent candidate has got the support of the Grand Alliance formed by TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI. Hence, if, BJP Polarizes The Hindu Votes in The Old City of Hyderabad, BJP Can Wrest This City from MIM(which has been winning through congress’s support since ’91). And for that to Happen, Modi Ji should address atleast one meeting in Hyderabad.
February 3, 2009 at 3:04 PM
Hi,
Congress is also fighting to get Hindu votes. Congress is making fool
to Hindu by cutting Hindu votes.
February 3, 2009 at 5:50 PM
Dear Ritesh, congress is losing it’s sway over Hindu Votes in Urban Centres.
Like the one in Hyderabad, which is Highly Polarized, since ’91 Elections BJP has reduced the margin of defeat despite having a congress candidate in Hyderabad(except for ’96 when Sri P V Narasimha Rao was The PM)
February 3, 2009 at 6:41 PM
Encouraging News from TamilNadu for BJP Well Wishers.
Captain Vijaykanth has shown Inclination to have Alliance with BJP for 2009 Lok Sabha Polls
Rajnikanth though would Not contest Elections, would throw His lot with BJP and Actively Campaign so and will be seen along with Advani Ji
in 2004, He said His Vote is for BJP but didnt throw His lot with NDA as BJP Allied with Jaya, one time Rajni’s Bete Noire
Cho Ramaswamy, who until recently threw His weight behind JJ would voice for BJP Allies this time around and this will gravitate All Brahmin and other Upper Caste votes to BJP from ADMK fold. Cho is A Strong Anti-Communist(In 2001, though Jaya had allied with commies, still Cho threw His lot behind JJ as BJP was in Alliance with DMK)
Krishnamachari Srikanth too is likely to join The Campaigning for BJP, He may even contest from South Chennai, A Constituency where Brahmins Votes are quite Important and can be decisive, particularly post Delimitation. Three of the six Segments, Viz: Mylapore, T Nagar and Velachery have Huge or considerable Brahmin Population)
Dr. Subramanian Swamy is Likely to be a Part of This Alliance.
BJP(Backed by Rajani)+Captain VijayKanth+Cho Ramaswamy+Dr.Subramanian Swamy will be A Formidable Alliance
Also, Fielding Krishnamachary Srikanth would be of Great Advantage to BJP as He is A Great Orator and He can Romp in His good friend Kapil Dev and other Cricketers like Veerendra Sehwag(who is a BJP Supporter), Anil Kumble( A Pro BJP Man),Javagal Srinath( A Good Friend of Srikanth).
I also feel, BJP and Dr. Subramanian Swamy should romp in Aravinda Swamy(of Bombay Fame) and Viswanathan Anand to Campaign for BJP Alliance
February 3, 2009 at 9:45 PM
Hi Raj,
If it happens, it will be major advantage to BJP.
Personally i feel TDP, AIADMK and TMC have done great mistake. BJP is weak in AP,WB and TN because of alliances. I feel, BJP should not have alliance with these people. BJP should have alliance with small party(vijaykant) and personality(srikant and rajnikant). Fighting is three side, BJP will get some seats. If BJP is having any alliance it would not get more than 15, without alliance BJP will get 10 seats. But no major improvement. After election if BJP needs any help to form the gov, then parties will support BJP( they are not having any
option). The major advantage will be, BJP would able to expand own base in these states. And i am very sure these parties can not form state gov without the help of BJP also. In future these parties can not blackmail to BJP. And BJP share will be 50% in state election. BJP is not worry about state election. But i would be problem for these parties. TDP, AIADMK and TMC should not have allowed BJP to expand own base in state, it was possible through having alliance with BJP. TDP, AIADMK and TMC are immatured parties. Because muslim votes will be divided among alliance 1 and alliance 2, BJP will get advantage of it.
You are saying BJP may get 25-35 in AP assembly. If BJP was able to get 25-35, lot of people would like to join BJP(because of good future) If it becomes true,It will be suicidal for TDP. In next election BJP may demand 50% seats from TDP. After sometime BJP may be main opposition paty.
February 3, 2009 at 10:01 PM
If u take example of Punjab, BJP is not able to expand base in punjab( Akalidal is realiable partner of BJP). Through alliance Akali Dal is able stop expansion of BJP.
February 3, 2009 at 10:07 PM
How many seats in UP BJP can not win at any cost. For example ( Amethi,Akbarpur ..etc.)
February 4, 2009 at 12:28 AM
I differ with You Ritesh
BJP lost it’s cadre in AP and WB because of Alliances.
It’s the Best time for BJP to Build a Base in these States. BJP should NOT be dependant on others.
Trinamool, commies and INC would split the muslim vote.
BSP contesting independently will make a dent into dalit votes
BJP can certainly Drive Hindu Votes to Their Advantag. Many strong Anti Communists didnt Vote for NDA last time because of the presence of mamata, a highly immature politician.
none have hopes on congress
further, INC is suffering anti-incumbency at national level and in bengal they are very weak
February 4, 2009 at 12:34 AM
Punjab is a different state as compared to WB or AP.
February 4, 2009 at 12:47 AM
About AP, I have already Discussed Earlier and will wait till I recieve info about Advani Ji’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra in Bezawada(Vijayawada) on 4th Feb 2009(The one at Hyderabad in Novemebr was A Huge Success foir about 5 lakh people attended without mobilization across the state!!!) yet, people and biased political analysts are turning a blind eye since They focussed primarily on Lok Sabha Ele ctions and Not on state elections.
However, on 4th feb 2009, Advani Ji is likely to unveil BJP’s Agenda for Assembly as well for it is by now Clear that BJP will go alone in AP(except in Telangana where NTP of devender goud neglected by both TRS and PRP may forge an Alliance with BJP citing BJP’s Commitment for Telangana, this would be Symbiotic and Would Help BJP too and NTP-BJP Alliance can sweep in The Telangana Region by Winning 10-12 Lok Sabha Seats as Gadar, The Famous Balle Singer and Telangana Activist is cross with The Grand Alliance, doesnt trust chiru, vowed to decimate congress and Most Important, Voiced Support for BJP through His Praises for BJP’s Commitment and also helped BJP gain Confidance of The Masses by Showing up at Advani Ji’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra in November Last Year)
February 4, 2009 at 12:57 AM
In TamilNadu, this time BJP should Field Sri Krishnamachary Srikanth from Brahmin Dominated Urban Constituency of South Chennai.
Cho Ramaswamy and Rajnikanth would throw Their Weight Behind BJP once The Polls are announced. It has already become clear that Cho is A BJP Man and as His Tuglak is a Popular Magazine amongst Tamils, This would Help BJP in TamilNadu.
Remember, Cho had His Role to play in Creating A Pro-Vajpayee wave in TN in ’98.
February 4, 2009 at 6:31 AM
Hi Raj,
It is good news( Which you wrote). I also believe it is best time of BJP in
Kerala,WB,TN and AP.
“Many strong Anti Communists didnt Vote for NDA last time because of the presence of mamata, a highly immature politician.
none have hopes on congress
further, INC is suffering anti-incumbency at national level and in bengal they are very weak
“
February 4, 2009 at 7:54 AM
Dear Ritesh, my Next Post would be Only after Today’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra Meeting at Bezawada.
This is A Test for BJP in AP
February 4, 2009 at 10:02 AM
Hi Raj,
==============
Would Help BJP too and NTP-BJP Alliance can sweep in The Telangana Region by Winning 10-12 Lok Sabha
=============
BJP should have 100% effort to bring NTP in BJP camp but BJP should not compromise with no. of seats(vote bank and own base). That i want,BJP can give Rajya Sabha Seat to Goud. I have told many times BJP may get 10(AP),10(WB),10(TN),5(Kerala). It is not possible through direct politics, BJP will have to use indirect politics. What is indirect politics( use big money, hire regional film actors, give them some monetory advantage, take help of personality Rajnikant, talk about statbility, AIADMK is not part of NDA and UPA alliances, left is not part of AIADMK is not part of NDA and UPA alliances, bring top dissident leaders in BJP and give them benefit, top dissident leaders are knowing very well BJP is future, if possible announce Rajinkant as Deputy priminster so that it would be possible for BJP get 10 seats in Tamilnadu, In these states BJP is future, 20 years before no was knowing BJP but now everyone is knowing BJP, BJP is also getting good no. of votes but it can not be converted in seats).
One day you will see in WB and Kerala, Congress and Left will fight election together or will sit together.
February 4, 2009 at 11:50 AM
1. Venkiah Naidu should fight election from AP.
2. Advaniji should fight election from Kerala.
3. Sushma Swaraj should fight election from WB( sixth no. seat descending order winining possibility or midnapore seat) Winning of election is not important
4. Rajnikant should fight election from TN if possible as deputy PM of
India.
All this activity will give good media coverage to BJP in four state and moral boost to BJP workers. After that it will be possible for BJP to develope own very strong base in four state.
Will it be good for BJP or not?
February 4, 2009 at 11:35 PM
Rajnath Singh Ji should Not stand from TN. TN has Never in it’s History has Welcomed Leaders popular in other states to Win elections from there.
Kerala too has NO Such History. And therefore, I wont second Your view of Advani Ji to contest from Trivandrum.
If Advani Ji has to contest from two seats, then the second one should be from UP or a Seat BJP Has Never Won from Rajasthan.
Sushama Swaraj wont be able to impress people in Bengal. Instead, she should be fieldded against Congress Bastion either in Maharasthra/Karnataka as she is fluent in these two languages.
Rajnikanth Wont fight elections but, is most likely to actively Voice His Support to BJP and would be probably share dias with Advani Ji in TN.
Venkaiah Naidu should however contest from Vijayawada/Nellore
unfortunately, the biased telugu media has NOT aired Advaniji’s meeting.
so have to wait, till tomorrow probably to comment on it.
In Between, BJP Should also utilize the services of BS Yeddiyurappa , The CM of Karnataka while campaigning in Rayalaseema
February 5, 2009 at 2:24 AM
What A Shame!!!
with the exception of Eenaadu Newspaper, NO Other Daily has Published about Vijay Sankalp Yatra Meeting of BJP in Vijayawada.
Only Eenaadu without any bias has carried it as The Lead storyunfortunately I cant Read Telugu
February 5, 2009 at 5:25 AM
Hi,
How many seats may BJP get from Delhi.
February 5, 2009 at 6:41 AM
Well, we cant draw conclusions to Delhi on the basis of recent assembly elections
However, to Win Maximum Seats from Delhi, BJP Should Field Strong Candidates.
L K Advani from New Delhi, Sushma Swaraj from South Delhi
February 5, 2009 at 8:18 AM
Same i am thinking, but not Advani, Sushma and Arun Jetli. Arun Jetli should take care of Delhi,Haryana and Punjab. He should take care of complete election strategy. Advani will fight from Gujrat.
Madan lal Kuhrana, Advani may be. Advani will have to fight from Gujrat aslo, after winning both seat he may leave Gujrat seat. If election take place in Gujrat again, BJP may retain seat again.
BJP should try to win all seat Delhi, It is possible, But in WB,AP,TN and keral we can say. BJP should have 400% effort in Delhi. If possible to field Vijay kumar Malhotra and Vijay Goel. Arun should not visit any other part of India.
February 5, 2009 at 9:27 AM
BJP is having national council meeting 6-7 feb in Nagpur. BJP should have all meeting in AP,WB,Kerala and Tamilnadu so that wave for BJP can be created in these states. If i have talk with people, they say BJP is not having presence.
February 5, 2009 at 5:08 PM
Dear Ritesh, unfortunately, it seems BJP is Struggling in Non Telangana Region of AP.
They dont have a Strong Leader there.
Right now, in Non Telangana Region, BJP finds it Hard to Win any seat apart from Visakhapatnam and Narsapur and that too Only Because of The Popularity of Their Candidates.
The Situation in ’98 was that BJP Had A Star Attractor Sri Atal Bihari Vaajpayee. In ’98 He was Highly Popular in Andhra Pradesh and in TamilNadu. But, BJP Relied more on Allies post ’99 in These two states and started playing second fiddle to them and lost cadre.
In Telangana, with the T Sentiment and Likely Polarization of Urban Areas and Locally Strong Leaders, BJP has a Fair chance in about 5 to7 constituencies. But, in The Rest of AP, BJP is weak and have NO Programmes to Appeal for AP Voters. Advaniji has Not been able to explain Why in The Assembly Elections BJP Should be Voted.
Post 2006 organizational elections, BJP Should have created two units for AP, one for Telangana wih Sri Bandaru Dattareyya(Instead of making The President of Whole of Andhra Pradesh) and K.Balakondiah, former MP from Nellore and A Dalit Leader for The Rest of AP. He would have certainly Built A Base for BJP in South Coastal Districts and adjoining Rayalaseema Regions. Also Former Tirupaty MP and another Dalit leader, N.Venkataswamy should have been made state wise president of BJP with incharge of Rayalaseema.
These two leaders, who are playing an active role in BJP would have really built cadre(The Nellore MP was Police Officer while Tirupaty MP was IAS Officer, hence they had organizational skills)
but, as they are without any prominent role, they are just relegated to MP/MLA seats in the assembly.
BJP should Work on Building A Base in some parts of AP.
February 5, 2009 at 6:30 PM
It seems Venkaih Naidu and Sushma Swaraj have decided Not to contest Polls and instead be Prabharis.
February 5, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Hi,
Both should fight elections. It is BJP’s mistake. But BJP should learn how to make arrangement for TOP leaders.
February 6, 2009 at 1:09 AM
well, something must have been there on their plans.
if All the leaders fight elections, Who will be Prabharis?
February 6, 2009 at 9:58 AM
Hi,
Prabhari has to take care of both. Sushma should spend two days in own consituency(If fighiting from Delhi not from WB) and spend 5 days all over India.If she has done enough work in own consituency(If she is knowing in advance) up to 5 years. Then two days is more than sufficient. If Sushma can not take care of own constituecy then her secrectary(BJP should provide because of top leader) should take care.
If Sushma is fighing from WB, she should choose weak seat( to loose the election not to win). And no need to spend one day in WB constituency. What is my aim. BJP will get lot of media attraction in WB and moral boost for paty workers in WB,because of Sushma Swaraj that will benefit to other BJP candidates in WB.
February 7, 2009 at 5:29 AM
I have seen A Video of Kota Srinivas Rao speaking at Vijayawada Vijay Sankalp Yatra. Wow!!! He is A Powerful Orator and The Audience Response was Huge whenever He Spoke. He should be given The Vijayawada Lok Sabha Seat.
February 7, 2009 at 10:18 AM
RAJ,
You do not have place in human soceity. Why? You need urgent medical attention beacuse you see to talk to yourself in different names RAJ, R, Ritesh Kumar…..
Anyway, keeping aside whether i am a minority or NOT, majority will be for PRP. If you talk about caste, Reddy and Kamma are minorities. Because of historical money power or otherwise dominance they are able to suppress the majority section of population. Not this Time. Time for Change is here and that is Chiranjeevi.
I am not saying that chiranjeevi is not self-fish. But his self fishness is for the good of the Society. Mitra his friend is a major plus for Praja rajyam. I am sure if not sweeping election it is sure PRP will get majority and will form government.
Vote for PRP if you want to see change – your mind cleaned from Varga poru and a new RAJ will be in AP 2009.
Good Luck…Minor
Citizen of Andhra Pradesh
February 7, 2009 at 11:21 AM
Hi Citizen of Andhra Pradesh,
If You think PRP is ocming into power. Give logic behind it. If you see RAJ’s mail, He is giving basic logic behind it. Abruptly he not saying anything. He is not saying anything blindly. If you see his mail carefully, you will find, he has not told that BJP would outperform in WB,Kerala,TN and AP. Really BJP is very powerfull except these four states(WB,Kerala,TN and AP). I know because i belong to UP.
February 7, 2009 at 1:55 PM
Ritesh,
Why Congress won Delhi continuously? Why BJP Failed there?
Yes, in 1998 BJP has big % of votes in AP…what happened in 2004?…from over 20 to just 6 or 8%…This time it will be much lower…
7 states out of 28 is not a good number for BJP to say it is powerful…It should shed the inage of of being communal… I too wish BJP come to power in central in 2009 and root out terrorism in country and reverse the stupid corruption of congress. But in Andhra Pradesh, BJP will only get 2 or 3 % vote .. maybe 2 to 4 assembly seats and 1 lok sabha seat…
i may be wrong but that is what BJP has …
When NTR started TDP, no one thought he will come to power… now Chiranjeevi’s PRP is in the same wave …. There is a silent revolution…Every policy he is talking touches common man… Rooting out corruption, Social Justice – you might not agree on this…Power not with one but with people… yes good talking points but this is what will bring PRP to power.. Chiranjeevi knows to connet with people.. so is the reason Advani gave a Call to him immediately when PRP started..
I dont have to talk More… you and RAJ will see in April / May 2009 Chirnajeevi as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh.
Kepp on watching…
Good LucK to BJP at National Level!!
Citizen of Andhra Pradesh
February 7, 2009 at 9:55 PM
you are a castist lowlife citizen of AP.
anyway, PRP proved to be corrupt even before it tested political waters.
anyway, I am different from Ritesh.
And I need Not excplain anything for you.
PRP is the only party in AP which has NO Ideology except for grabing power based on caste.
like mulayam in UP who is lobbying with yadav-muslim combination.
PRP is vying kaapu-muslim population
February 7, 2009 at 9:58 PM
chiru has NO Capabilities.
his only intention is to earn money for himself and his brother in law allu
look at pavan kalyan’s language and behaviour.
Already there is infighting in prajarajyam.
what can we anticipate inreturn from a party floated by defectors.
February 7, 2009 at 10:04 PM
stop comparing ntr and chiranjeevi
at that there was NO Big name
in AP, BJP polled less because of alliance with TDP
in delhi, it was a fluke for congress.
In Rajasthan BJP polled higher votes and congress DIDNT Get A Majority
I dont know what you mean by communal.,
do you think secularism is Humilaiting Hindus.
if that is so, you dont worth being Human being.
if Demanding execution of terrorists is communal, then we want to be communal.
if providing muslims and christians more benefits is secular, we dont want sickularism.
in how many states is left ruling?
in how many states is mayawati’s BSP in poweer.
in how many states is christian congress ruling.
hey converted christian and worshuipper o sonia maino and yesupada samuel reddy,your chuiru is already licking the boots of Terrorists.
chiru is a slave of evangelicals.
; why doid he keep that foreign slut teresa’s picture,because he recieved crores of ruppes frm k a paul
February 7, 2009 at 10:10 PM
none trusts chiru in Telangana
chiru has proved to be a pro-terrorist.
chiru has NO Agenda on how to tackle Terrorism
chiru supports ISI agents and praised owasi of mim.
chiru has NOT opposed the Sethu sundaram canel project.
till date, chiru has Not given acknowledged a single Hindu Saint like Swmai Vivekananda.
chiru will bring a change and the change is “operation Destroy AP by Evangelising and Increasing Terrorism on Hindus”
till date, chiru Never spoke against Islamic Terrorism and Gokul Chat issue.
chiru has till date NOT Opposed Evangelization of AP.
he is a shame on All Human beings.
February 7, 2009 at 10:12 PM
you just dream citizen of AP.
if there is any silent revolution it will be only for Lok Satta and not prp
as they say in English, empty vessels make hell of noise, prp is making huge cry
February 7, 2009 at 11:19 PM
Recent policies of PRP where is BJP here
Removal of Belt Shops
Phased prohibition on Alcohol
Special Courts for women
February 8, 2009 at 5:14 AM
oh, yeah the one who danced and got drunk while doing roadshows will remove Belt shops and bring in phased prohibition of alcohol
chiru cant survive without drinking a full bottle per day.
someone No less than A Minister in AP Cabinet has said this.
chiru so far has not contested mareppa’s statement.
you think, people will believe in what a drunkard states.
you must be a die hard fan of chiru
He can just eat into the votes of congress and TDP in the central and North Coastal Regions and bring in Instability.
post elections, he will ally with christian rajasekhar reddy and will lick the white s**t’s feet
February 8, 2009 at 5:32 AM
In Telangana the fight will be between Grand Alliance(60-65 assembly segments and 10 Lok Sabha Seats), BJP(21-27 Assembly segmenta, largely The Uran Seats in and around Hyderabad region and 5 Lok Sabha Seats, 7 in Most favourable condition)
congress in assembly can make about 15-28 in alliance with mim and win about 2 seats(khammam,renuka choudary and peddapally,G Venkataswamy)
NTP-PRP will come a cropper here.
rayalaseema : Congress Sweep. YSR is a popular leader in the rayalaseema region. balakrishna’s routine filmy dialogues and gestures are irritating the people out there.
Rayalaseema has 8 Lok Sabha Seats
congress :5(cuddapah, rajampeta,chittoor, anantapur, nandyala)
TDP — Hindupur(if ballaiah contest either assembly segment / lok sabha polls from here)
PRP(Karnool, bhooma shobha nagi reddy and Tirupati)
South Coastal Andhra has only 3 seats (Nellore,most likely congress as post delimitation this seat has become unreserved and former CM, N Janardhan reddy who has a reputation of never losing an election is likely to contest from here, if he does, he would certainly win this seat;ongole, has now become reserved seat post delimitatin and uniion minister and sitting MP from nellore, panabaka Lakshmi is likely to be given ticket for this seat; Bapatla, union minister and NTR’S Daughter Purandareshwari is likely to retain this seat for congress, she has expressed her desire to contest from here as ongole is now a reserved constituency)
Now, comes the most important and Interesting Region.
It’s only in This region that PRP is likely to sweep.
congress would suffer huge reversals in this region and TDP will find it hard to regain the dominance.
Two Political Parties will Damage congress here :
1. Obviously PRP, as this region is dominated by kaapus, who have been since ’89 exclusively voting for congress since, kaapus hate NTR and TDP for ntr murdered a kaapu leader, vangaveeti mohan ranga
2. BSP, yes, this region has Huge Dalit Population and BSP can cut into the dalit votes of congress.
This Region(North and Central Coastal Andhra) has 14 seats, mostly in Krishna-Godavari Belt. Here, PRP can Win 12 Seats and one for TDP(Srikakulam).
BJP has Chance in Visakhapatnam
February 8, 2009 at 5:37 AM
BJP’s stand on National Issues is Clear.
BJP is The Only Non Pseudo Secular Party
BJP is The Only Party that Unites All Indians and Doesnt divide Hindus on caste and doest eye for minority votebank.
remember, chiru may announce 1000 sops for converted and/crypto christians, but they will Only vote for Yesupaada Samuel Robert Reddy and Italaian White Trash KKK bi*** antonio maino and her wimpy Impastor son born to her italian boy friend, ottawio quattrochhi, and that wimp’s name is raul vinci
if BJP is NOT Voted to Power, Bharat Maata would be Disintegrated by 2020. Next 5 years if upa/coalation supported by upa-left comes back to power by hook or crook.
February 8, 2009 at 5:38 AM
chiru is A Drunkard.
Disprove it.
February 8, 2009 at 5:42 AM
chiru comes from an immoral background and his whole family is immoral.
look at himself, he had affairs with raadhika, vijayashanti, raadha, ooha, madhavi and sudha(his permanent concubine)
paan kalyan is proud of his sexual immoraity and arrogantly states he is right.
pawan kalyan is a loafer and didnteven clear high school.
he says education is NOT Important.
what a shame.
is this the change the kaapus want?
is this the change the kaapu rajyam will bring.
they may same nice words to decieve, but if prp comes to power, they will sell AP.
chiru and allu are greedy lowlives.
February 8, 2009 at 5:44 AM
but, sadly in about 120 assembly segments in Coastal districts, prp would win about 75-80 seats
February 8, 2009 at 5:44 AM
the caste dominance is Out in Open in PRP
February 8, 2009 at 5:45 AM
PRP in AP is like PMK in TN.
February 8, 2009 at 5:46 AM
could ramadosss become CM?
The same here
February 8, 2009 at 9:20 AM
Good analysis.Keep it up.
February 8, 2009 at 10:08 AM
Thank You Dear.
February 8, 2009 at 10:10 AM
By the by, NTP is planning to contest Elections on PRP’s Symbol if PRP succeeds in getting A Common Electoral Symbol.
February 8, 2009 at 7:26 PM
Hi Raj,
I have to ask one thing, BJP is future in AP. What is the problem to Goud to have alliance with BJP.
February 8, 2009 at 11:03 PM
Well, I will speak with Reference to Telangana.
The Reason why Goud resigned from TDP at A Time TDP officially stated They are actively considering on Telangana Issue was He wanted to become CM of Telangana while TDP as considering HariKrishna(NTR’s Son) for The Role. And so, Goud came out of TDP. Initially, there was Huge Speculation that TRS would be Decimated and Goud would become the face of ATelangana. However, NTP could Not gain any momentum and has NO Cadre.
Chiru is Not effective in Telangana(kaapu community,i.e., chiranjeevi’s caste is negligible in this region). Though Goud is A Backward Caste Leader, he is not inspiring The Masses.
And Thereby, They came to an understanding that to gain credibility on Telangana Issue, PRP would Project Goud while Goud would gain the Cadre of PRP(chiru’s fans)
BJP’s Bandaru Dattatreyya is A CM Candidate post formation of Telangana. Therefore, Goud has NO Future if He joins hands with BJP in Teangana.
February 9, 2009 at 12:22 AM
Great Video for which can WELCOMECHANGE
February 9, 2009 at 4:37 AM
Sri Citizen of AP Gaaru, I would Not have targetted chiru had there been NO Simultaneous Polls for assembly and lok sabha elections.
It’s a Fact that Chiru is unable to explain with whom he would go and whom he would support at centre
He has NO Agenda on National Issues.
February 9, 2009 at 6:50 AM
I think, I was too Harsh on Sri Citizen of AP. I must Apologize for Hurting His views.
But,chiru has joined the long list of pseudo secular sickularists and thhis is annoying me
February 9, 2009 at 12:06 PM
Raj,
There is nothing like final in life till death. But as long as we exist we need to be polite, Civilized and be with humility always. This is our expectation not from you and me but chiranjeevi.
He has talked to Brahmin community also as below… If you do not know telugu, He says he is with them and he will constitue a Corporation for brahmins, and provide free education for Economically bakward brahmin and take care of archakas.
He embraces both humility in life and hunamity as religion. I wish he will not be biased on any community.
I will try not to be subjective where ever possible.
Have a good one!
http://eenadu.net/panelhtml.asp?qrystr=htm/panel12.htm
February 9, 2009 at 12:41 PM
Dear Citizen of AP Gaaru, I felt very Bad for blasting You for NO Reason.
Seriously, I should Not have gone hyper emotional.
And though my First language is telugu, I studied in Kendriya Vidyalaya, Central School and therefore cant read and write Telugu. I can read with great difficulty alone.
But, how did You figure out, I am A Brahmin?
I admit, BJP lost cadre in AP.
But, in Telangana Region, BJP can stioll surprise Many, Particularly Congress.
The threat to BJP in assembly elections is from Lok Satta.
February 9, 2009 at 12:55 PM
And Citizen of AP Gaaru, can You please tell me whose Votes would Chiru cut into?
Who will be a Bigger loser, congress/TDP
The so called grand alliance is effective Only in The Telangana Region.
Excep for a few pockets in Guntur district and in Srikakulam and some areas of Visakhapatnam and now dissolved constituency of Bhadrachalam, Communists are virtually Non Existent in AP.
By Launching Balakrishna in Hindupur and with Kuppam, CBN’s constituency being part of Chittoor Lok Sabha Constituency, TDP may hav e fair chances here. but, elsewhere they are likely to lose, though they may put some fight in Anantpur.
Karnool and Tirupati are likely to go to PRP’s kitty as Chiru is standing from Tirupati Assembly Segment and Therefore, this would probably also help PRP gain in Lok Sabha.
From Karnool, PRP’s candidate for Lok Sabha is Booma Nagi Reddy, who is likely to win, with encouraging result from Alagedda ZPTC Elections.
Nandyala, cuddappah and Rajampeta are congress strongholds
Thatz Harsh Reality.
About the three constituencies in south Coastal AP; Nellore, N Janardhan Reddy;Ongole,panabaka Lakshmi and Bapatla,Duggabati Purandareshwari as congress candidates, PRP may have tough time.
BJP’s former MP from NelloreK.Balakondiah has resigned from BJP citing importance to Telangana Leaders alone and therefore BJP has forfieted this seat.
In Narsapur, which is the native of Chiru, BJP’s Krishnamraju can scrape through Only if there is Cross voting in assembly and lok sabha ballots
in Visakhapatnam alone, BJP has some chances as Their Candidate is D V Subba Rao, a Former Mayor and ofcourse there is Huge Brahmin Population in VSKP.
of the 14 Lok Sabha Seats in the region starting from Krishna Districts to Srikakulam, PRP would Sweep and is likely to Win 10 Lok Sabha seats a Minimum.This is The Region, PRP can bank on.
February 9, 2009 at 12:56 PM
Hi Citizen of Andhra Pradesh,
Chiranjeevi is doing too many promises, it is not possible at all. He is making fool to public.
February 9, 2009 at 12:56 PM
And what about Mudragada Padmanabam?
has He joined PRP or is he still in TDP
He is a Popular Kaapu Leader from Kakinada
February 9, 2009 at 12:58 PM
well, Chiru is Not targeting Lok Sabha at all.
However, if Telangana is carved out, of the remaining 175 seats, PRP is likely to have more seats.
The Coastal Belt is Key to the formation of Government
Probably, chiru has forgot that there will be simultaneous polls.
February 9, 2009 at 1:05 PM
If PRP succeeds in getting C ommon Symbol, congress would lose Heavily and TDP too would face the heat.
It would be Interesting to see, if there would be any Cross Voting in Assembly and Lok Sabha Polls in AP.
But, Still I am of the view that in Telangana, in the following constituencies there would be Quadrangular fight in Lok Sabha Polls :
Hyderabad, Secunderabad,Malkajigiri,Chevella,Mahboobnagar,Karimnagar and one warrangal/mehaboobabad, depending on where from BJP would field C Janga Reddy)
February 9, 2009 at 1:09 PM
Hi Citizen of Andhra Pradesh,
See Raj’s analysis. He is having very deep knowledge of politics. Only jourunalist and election expert may have such type of knowledge. I do not what type of job he is doing. I am also trying to learn from Raj. I have never found person like Raj( Vikas is also having good knowledge). See his logic,do not see his conclusion. He is pro BJP but he is not doing any wrong analysis in favour of BJP knowingly.
February 9, 2009 at 1:13 PM
Dear and Respected Citizen of AP Gaaru, Wht has upset me was Your Telangana Break Up.
BJP Cannot be Ignored in Telangana, BJP’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Hyderabad was a success. Though BJP has NOT Impressed at Vijayawada VijaySankalp Yatra.
Modi Ji’s Presence can Polarize the votes in The Telangana Region.
Further, I feel, Congress with it’s strong Anti-Telangana Stand Cant get more than 15 assembly seats.
PRP if They wish to see Chiru as CM should concentrate more on their stongholds, The Coastal Belt. Coastal AP from Sullurpeta to Ichapuram have 120 Assembly segments.
PRP has to Win 85 seats in This Region if They want to see Chiru as CM of AP
February 9, 2009 at 1:22 PM
Nope, some of my Analysis is from Wishful thinking too.
But,I feel, in the Rayalaseema Region. PRP is Not sostrong. Rayalaseema has always remained Congress Bastion.
If one sees the Assembly Results of AP from’83 till 204; Congress has held it’s sway in this region except in ’94 when there was a stong Anti-Congress wave.
Also, it’s Not easy for Any New Party to Break Congress’s dominance in Faction Ridden Rayalaseema.
I hate to say, that No Developmet or Even Populist Schemes can ever get votes here. Everything depends only on Faction Heads, The Feudal Lords.
under YSR’s leadership, the law and order situation in Rayalaseema Region has become worser than Lallu’s Bihar or communists Bengal.
Political Killings have become the norm in Rayalaseema.
Yet, chiru’s presence can change equations in Tirupati region and Booma Nagi Reddy’s entry will boost PRP in Karnool.
Hindupur, where I initially
February 9, 2009 at 1:36 PM
contd.,
Hindupur, which I initially felt can go The BJP way because of their candidate actor Naresh has nurtured the constituency for the past four years have been washed off, as Balakrishna has entered the political scene and hence TDP can make an impact here.
now it seems, they are bringing in jr NT R too.
Chittoor Parliamentary constituency would witness a hard battle between Congress and TDP. PRP has completely forgot this region,
Again, I feel, it’s Not easy to break the congress’s strongholds in South Coastal Andhra
So for Each Party/Alliance if, we have to speak in terms of Strongholds, then :
for Congress : Rayalaseema(Nandyala,Cuddappah,Rajaampeta in Particular, can put tough fight in Anantapur and Chittoor) South Coastal AP(All Three ; Nellore, Ongole, Bapatla, however, PRP can give a good fight in Ongole,as this constituency shares special relationship with Chiru),will suffer very badly in krishna-guntur regions through, godavari and uttar Andhra. probably may no win a seat in these regions!!!In Telangana,except for Peddapally, G Venkataswamy and Khammam Renuka Choudary, Congress will cut a sorry figure
for BJP : (specific constituencies in Telanga Region;viz,Secunderabad;Bandaru Dattatreyya,Malkajigiri:Nallu Indrasena Reddy,Hyderabad: likely candidate–Subash Chanderji, former depty Mayor of Hyderabad,Chevella, Baddam Balaram Reddy;have to do hard work here and cant simply bank on polarization of votes or urban votes, chevella is NOT an urban constituency, Karimnagar–Ch Vidya Sagar Rao;if and only if KCR opts medhak, the native constituency of KCR wich he is likely to as KCR’s victory margin was narrow in 2008 By E
February 9, 2009 at 1:50 PM
contd.,
KCR’s victory margin was narrowed down in 2008 By Elections in Karimnagar and as Narendra is out of TRS, KCR may opt for Medhak.
in Mehaboobnagar, BJP has announced Jhansi Rani as Their Candidate who seems to be a strong candidate in Mehaboobnagar constituency and BJP has to field C Janga Reddy from Mehabbobabad and Not from Warrangal as, TDP’s Candidate from Warrangal, Erraballi Dayakar Rao is A Popular choice amongst voters)
in Rayalaseema and south Coastal Districts, BJP is very weak.
In The Central and North Coastal Districts, BJP can Bank only on Visakhapatnam and Narsapur if and only if There is Cross voting between Assembly and Lok Sabha Polls
TDP : will be the real loser apart from Congress.
with Eenaadu favouring Chiru over Naidu, TDP will find it hard.
In Telangana, because of the Alliance with TRS and with the support of commies , Grand Alliance will be the leader(particularly in Rural segments) in Rayalaseema, Hindupur is the Only Stronghold for TDP, ere again in Anantapur and Chittoor , TDP would have a fierce battle with congress(in Anatapur, we may see a triangular fierce triangular battle between Congress–TDP–PRP)
in South Coastal AP, TDP will cut a sorry figure.
In Central And North Coastal AP, which until recently have been TDP strongholds , TDP is on the verge of route except in srikakulam, as their candidate there is yerran naidu. In Narsarao peta assembly segment, kodela sivaprasad of TDP may win but, in the remaining segments, TDP would probably lose. In Kakinada, if Mudragada Padmanabham remains with TDP, then TDP can win some more seats , but, wit huge pressure on Kapu leaders to join PRP, mudragada Padmanabam may jump into PRP when elections are announced, this would be a severe blow to TDP, probabl a death knell in Godavari Districts.
February 9, 2009 at 1:57 PM
Praja Rajyam :
Clean Sweep in North and Central Coastal AP
South Coastal AP — Not easy to Break Congress’s cosolidation,Has Chance in Ongole Division and Parts of Nellore Division.
Rayalaseema, Select Pockets : tirupati and Karnool Divisions for Sure would vote for PRP, can also give A Good Fight in Anatapur and A Run for money to congress and TDP in Hindupur, if planned well.
A Lot in Hindupur segment will depend on The Muslim Vote. Hindupur and Cudappah are two regions, where muslim votes will be deciding factor(may be samajwadi party should try their luck here, lol)
Telangana, Not A Cakewalk for PRP-NTP Alliance
Lok Satta — largely arm chair supporters.
Can cut into BJP’s votebank in the assembly segments around Hyderabad region
February 9, 2009 at 2:00 PM
well Ritesh, I am A Research Scholar.
I am Doing PhD in BioMaterials.
I have A Masters Degree in Chemistry from IIT Madras and am now in Taiwan, doing my PhD in The Department of Materials Scienc and Engineering. I am working o Engineering Polymeric Materials for Controlled Drug Delivery and Their Pharmacokinetic Applications.
February 9, 2009 at 2:01 PM
however, I wanted to be A Journalist , but my Mother had me change my career, she insisted I be A Scientist
February 9, 2009 at 2:03 PM
Yes, I am Pro BJP though I have several Differences with RSS.
I seriously Oppose many of The Activities of Several Sangh Parivar outfits.
February 10, 2009 at 6:10 AM
Hi,
BJP should fight election alone in WB,Kerala,TN,AP.
After election these parties will support BJP, Because they are not having
any other option. These parties can not support Congress( Because of
left support TMC can not support Congress)
1. TDP and TRS
2.AIADMK
3.TMC
If BJP goes alone, then BJP would able to develop own base in these states. If BJP is going to have alliance these parties, BJP should have 50% seats sharing. If immediate election happens again, BJP should go again for election. It would be beneficial to BJP.
February 10, 2009 at 6:41 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP should announce chief minister candidate in AP from Telangana region. He should not fight election. Only he should take participate in campaign. It will make BJP strong in Telangana region.
Dou you(Raj) think it would be beneficial for BJP or not?
Right now no chief minister(Chiru,Naidu,Reddy) candidate is from Telangana region.
February 10, 2009 at 8:03 AM
BJP knows very well that in AP, BJP is Not in a Position to form Government. therefore, announcing CM Candidate would be Foolish.
BJP Should go forward in the present direction of focussing on Telangana.
BJP should make people convince that Only BJP can give Telangana and liberate the Telangana People from Distress.
Announcing A Telanganaite as CM may be counter Productive as it would leed to campaign by opposition that BJP has diluted the stand and is for United AP with A Telanganaite as CM.
Further, BJP has NO Leader anywhere in AP besides Telangana.
Several Leader from Nellore have left BJP for overdue Importance to Telangana and Telangana Leaders. Therfore, BJP would be Mocking themselv es if they announce A CM Candidate.
In Visakhapatnam apart from being ABrahmin City, The BJP’s Candidate is The Most Popular and Most Respected Man of Visakhapatnam.
February 10, 2009 at 10:09 AM
Hi Raj,
(Part1)
There are two pole in Indian politics. One is BJP and ohter is Congress.
Each and Every party has to decide where it has to go(BJP or Congress).
One day it will happen. I have told many times, left will go with Congress in WB,Kerala and Tripura. BJP has to show strong presence always.
Contd..
February 10, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Hi Raj,
(Part2)
Why should people of AP cast vote to BJP for assembly?
Ans : BJP is national party. It will take care of state better than any other
regional party. Second important thing BJP chief minister’s performance is
better than any other party’s chief minister. See Modi, Shivraj, Raman, Yedurappa, Raje, Himanchal Pradesh, Nitish Kumar etc.
(contd..)
February 10, 2009 at 11:19 AM
Hi Raj,
(Part3)
In democracy winning and loosing election is not important but u have to
show strong presence. Sushma has lost election many times. The reputation of Sushma Swaraj is very high in BJP and general public.
(contd..)
February 10, 2009 at 3:05 PM
Andhra Pradesh MLC Teachers & Graduate Seats Biennial Election February 2009 results:
1. Khammam-Warangal-Nalgonda: K. Dileep Kumar (TRS) with a record of 22,233 votes over BJP candidate. It is a huge victory for “MahaKootami”(TDP-TRS-CPI-CPM).
2. Guntur-Krishan Teachers Constituency: K.S. Laxmana Rao re-elected.
3. Guntur-Krishan Graduates Constituency: Ilapuram Venkaiah (Congress) defeated TDP supported Gutta Sivarama Krishna by a narrow margin of 181 votes.
4. Hyderabad-Rangareddy-Mahaboobnagar Graduates Constituency: “MahaKootami”(TDP-TRS-CPI-CPM) candidate K. Nageswar was re-elected defeating BJP candidate Ramachandra Rao by wafer thin margin of just 436 votes.
5. Godavari Teachers Constituency: JACTO supported candidate K.V.V. Satyanarayana Raju defeated UTF candidate Cherukuri Subhash Chandra Bose.
The performance of BJP in these state level elections is very significant because these elections are held just 2-3 months before Lok Sabha Elections.
BJP has fought these elections independently.
Congress had fought without TRS & left and AIMIM had not put up candidates. the elections were held under Congress stae govt. administration. In this election, the form of Grand Alliance of TDP-TRS-Lefts was put to test.
The Lok Sabha elections will have little different trends from these elections.
Only possible changes are:
In Lok sabha Elections national issues will have more prominence which will give extra advantage to BJP.
The Lok sabha & assembly elections will be held under Central Election Commission and not under Congress state Government, which will benefit TDP, TRS, BJP, wherever who has support.
Analysis of these results will give a fair idea of likely outcome of Lok Sabha polls. I will try to analyse them in next communication.
February 10, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Dear Raj and all
I have been regularly studying political developments for last 15-16 years. However I belong to UP but studied other states as well. Raj actually I was not very much convinced earlier when you were talking like 7-10 seats for BJP in AP and upto 7 in telangana only. Though I am aware BJP has influence in Telagana traditionally and they have been alternatively winning Secunderabad LS seat since 1991 and always stood second in Hyderabad. I know BJP got almost 10% votes in 1991 and won Secunderabad LS seat. in 1996, they secured nearly 6% votes and lost the Secunderabad LS seat. then 1998 was the most wonderful year, when it garnered 17% votes itself and bagged four seats: Secunderabad, Karimnagar, Kakinada, Rajamundary; this was the best performance till date. But unfortunately they were little short of majority at centre so they had deal with TDP for support and BJP growth stopped. In 1999 LS election BJP had seat adjustments with TDP, in which BJPO recieved a very rough deal. However BJP won 7 LS seats, 3 more than last time but their vote share came down to 10% and BJP had to compromise with junior partner with no BJp candidates in most of the seats. Then in 2004, BJP had to suffer a lot becuse of the misdoings of TDP. It vote % further slipped by 1-2% and they drew a blank in the Lok Sabha seats.
This time in 2009, BJP is first time fighting independently in all seats; after 1998 when BJP put up most spectacular performance 17% votes & $ LS seats alone. I hope they will the storey which was left in middle in 1998 and cross 20% vote line and pick-up 7-8 seats at least.
The MLC biennial elections trends indicates likely outcome, which will be discussed in next communication.
February 10, 2009 at 3:41 PM
I had always analysed regions clusterwise becuse I do strongly feel that LS elections are turning into local battles and this process of decentralisation is futher continuing to lower level. The national issue do play a significant role but local issues do have their telling effect.
If 2004 LS elections was an aagregate various state elections, then 1999 Lok Sabha Elections is going to be integration sevel sub-regional areas poll outcome. Within in a state there will be different sub regions and with different clusters, which need to be seen separately and also conjunctively. That was the reason I was focussing on West UP, Rohilkhand, Poorvanchal, Urban centres, Reserved seats separately and jointly in the case of UP. In Andhra telangana needs special approach and within Telangana Hyderabad Urban area, Northern part, etc needs to be seen in separate clusters on the basis of available, reliable and recent data. the just concluded MLC elections provides such information. This data will be analysed clusterwise in subsequent communication.
February 10, 2009 at 4:03 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, The Hyderabad Graduates-Teachers Constituency is A Morale Boost for BJP.
Remember, Congress and MIM have NOT put any candidates out here.
So, it is most likely that INC and MIM have voted for the grand alliance to Defeat BJP candidate.
In the other constituency in Telangana, Viz Khammam-Warrangal, Nalgonda, BJP has some presence only in Warrangal and to a lesser Extent in Nalgonda. whereas in Khammam, BJP is virtually Non Existent(even in ’98 when BJP Polled 26% of Popular vote in Telangana Region, in Khammam BJP and Warrangal)
Therefore in Telangana too BJP Should Primarily Focus on : Secunderabad, Malkajigiri,Hyderabad,Chevella,MehaboobNagar,KarimNagar and one more Seat where, there is a Possibility to Win. BJP Should Win a 7 Seats from Telangana.
February 10, 2009 at 4:06 PM
Correction Vikas Ji, BJP didn’t poll so badly in Lok Sabha Elections in AP. it’s in Assembly elections that BJP got only 2%, in Lok Sabha BJP got about7% in AP 2004
February 10, 2009 at 4:28 PM
Ritesh Ji, many in AP feel, only a Local Party can understand their problems well.
Further, BJP is Showing NO Enthusiasm in AP Except for Telangana.
Infact, some of The BJP Leaders including former MP of Nellore(Then A Reserved Seat), Balakondiah. He alleged that State BJP is Run by Telangana Leaders. It seems he has joined TDP.
I swear, BJP out of Telangana Region has almost lost the battle before the war has begun.
With The Exception of Visakhapatnam, Where BJP has Fielded D V Subba Rao, Former Mayor of Visakhapatnam and also The Most Popular Man and The Most Respected Man in Visakhapatnam. Also, He belongs to Kaapu Community(the same caste as that of PRP Founder, Mega Star Chiranjeevi), threfore, though in Assembly, They may vote for PRP, in Lok Sabhait is most likely that They would vote for BJP.
In Visakhapatnam, While The Urban Areas have a Huge Brahmin Population(as high as 30%), Kaapu’s Dominate the Rural Regions as They Own the lands.
The Other Lok Sabha Seat where BJP can Bank on(but this time, there Should be Cross Voting as Narsapur from where BJP Fielded Yesteryears Tollywood Hero, U V Krishnam Raju, Who was Popularly Known as “Rebel Star” is Native Constituency of Chiranjeevi)
After Demure Response to BJP’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Vijayawada(While BJP’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Hyderabad was A Huge Succes with Attendance crossing 5 lakhs, the one in Vijayawada was Demure, BJP hasnt touched any Local Issue and didnt even appeal to vote in the assembly and the whole focus was merely on Lok Sabha Polls), I feel, Though Initially, I banked on Vijayawada(for it being an Urban Constituency), now I have Back Tracked.
similarly, ever since, NTR’s Actor Son, N Balakrishna has Plunged into Politics, I have left hopes of Hindupur, where otherwise, BJP had Fair chances for :
1. Their Candidate, Actor Naresh(Son of Actress Vijayanirmala and step brother of Telugu Hero, Mahesh) has Noursihed This Constituency for the past 4 years
2. This constituency has a Vibrant muslim population and has seen communal Violance , Hence BJP can Polarize the votes
3. Neighbouring State Effect from Karnataka.
However, With Balakrishna , likely to contest Elections from Hindupur, this seat would go The TDP way.
Chiranjeevi is contesting Tirupati from Assembly segment, hence, Tirupati Lok Sabha seat too would go to PRP(most likely, since chinta mohan, the current MP is highly unpopular as he is Never reachable)
Nellore is another constituency I batted for BJP, but, I have found that former BJP MP from Nellore has quit BJP in 2007 due to partiality shown to the Telangana Leaders and complete Neglect of leaders from other region(and This is True to a large extent)
Therefore, I have given Hopes for Nellore as well.
The Good News for BJP in Narsapur, where U V Krishnam Raju is contesting is that His Nephew, Prabhas, A Very Popular Mass Actor has announced He would Campaign for BJP and in Particular for His Uncle.
February 10, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, in East-West Godavari Districts and Krishna-Guntur Districts, PRP Dindt Field Any Candidates. In Assembly Elections, PRP would Sweet in These Four Districts
February 10, 2009 at 4:33 PM
*I mean, Sweep
February 10, 2009 at 4:33 PM
TELANGANA:
broadly I will divide telangana region into 3 clusters
The northern Telangana: It comprises of mostly rural, backward, naxalite influenced area. This cluster comprises of six seats: Adilabad (ST), Peddapalle (SC), Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Zahirabad and Medak. In this area there is no much recent data, buch past data indicates TRS to be strong in this region. One seat Karimnager, BJP may be hopeful if KC rao (TRS) doesnot contest from here and BJP puts up Ch. Vidyasagar Rao. then with extensive campaigning and good efforts it could be won.
Hyderabad and suburban Urban Areas: It consists of Hyderabad, Secunderabad, Mahbubnagar, Chevella, Malkajgiri, Nagarkurnool (SC).
This area much urbanised and has good percentage of Muslim population making polarisation for BJP. This is most promising area in Telangana for BJP. This view is further strengthened by MLC election result; which is quoted as under:
Hyderabad-Rangareddy-Mahaboobnagar Graduates Constituency: K.Nageswar of TDP-TRS-Left was re-elected defeating BJP candidate Ramachandra Rao by wafer thin margin of just 436 votes.
The difference between BJP and Grand Alliance candidate was even less than 1%. Bringing Narendra Modi for campaigning in this urban polarised area will help much BJP as suggested by all of you.
In normal situation BJP should get 3 seats out of 6 here and with good efforts and promising candidates may even notch up 4 seats. However even in adverse situation thay should pick up 2 seats at least.
A point of caution the voters in Graduates seat are educated, urban upper class mostly, however in LS elections there will be more Dalits, slum areas voters.
South Telangana: This area comprises of five LS seats: Nalgonda, Bhongir, Warangal (SC), Mahbubadad, Khammam. This area has pockets of influence of Lefts & TDP base which will definitely help Grand Alliance. Congress leader Renuka Chowdhary also contests from this region- Khammam, who even won in 1999 in the presence of TDP-BJP alliance sweep when Congress only got 5 seats out of 42 in the state.
Khammam-Warangal-Nalgonda: K. Dileep Kumar (TRS) with a record of 22,233 votes over BJP candidate. It is a huge victory for Grand Alliance (TDP-TRS-CPI-CPM).
But the MLC elections results tells the story of today: Grand Alliance candidate won with highest record margin of over 22000 votes and secured more than 50% votes, as I pointed that this areas substantial TDP and Left influences. BJP stood second and secured more than 25% votes.
In its campaign, BJP should focus here on 4 seats leaving Khammam and should attack on Grand alliance of TDP-TRS-Left heavily. It should make issue of relations between TRS and anti-Telangana Left parties and take its benefit. It can hope to win 1 or max. 2 seats here.
Summing Up: Total for BJP in Telangana = Northern (1) + Hyderabad (2-3-4) + Southern (1-2) = 4 to 7 seats.
Outside Telangana, there is not much scope for BJP except a few promising seats, the MLC election results also confirms this feeling. One such seat, I see is Vishakhapatnam which is a mostly Urban seat with good Brahmin population. also BJP has a strong popular candidate there. A couple of surprise constituencies may also come. From remaining Andhra, 1-2 seats may be bagged by BJP.
For total Andhra Pradesh, I am now calculating 5 to 8 seats.
Earlier I was thinking of TRS-BJP alliance; but now I think it will be damaging and limit the BJP’s scope and they will be left to fight in only 6-7 seats in Telangana and maximum they could win 5 only, which they are capable of alone. also TRS will give tham waste seats.
BJP should not align with PRP either because presence of PRP, TDP, Congress will only help BJP in some seats in coastal andhra Pradesh by dividing Dalit, OBC and Muslim – Christian votes among themselves.
Also after elections TRS & PRP has no options other than to support BJP led NDA at centre.
February 10, 2009 at 4:34 PM
But, for Lok Sabha Elections, PRP is Directionless
February 10, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Vikas Ji,
You made a Good Point that many slum dwellers and Dalits would be voting in Urban Areas of Telangana and one should be Vary of it.
But, AP is NOT UP.
Unlike, in UP, Despite an 18% SC Population, Dalits in AP DO NOT Have A Leader or A Political Party. Infact, the two Major Dalit SubSects, Maala and Maadiga who together constitute above 80% of SC Population in AP are Warring Factions. Thy Hate Each other and in the reserved category work to defeat the other.The Demand to Categorization of SC in AP by the maadigas on the pretext that only maala’s have hugely benefited due to their proximity to reddy’s who show their allegiance to congress has added fuel to fire.
BJP and TDP are the Only Parties in AP Supporting Categorization of SCs. TDP Supports SC Categorization demand as maadigas are supporters of TDP since maalas are supporters of congress.
BJP supports to gain a foothold over the remaining marginalized SCs besides these two dominant subcastes.
February 10, 2009 at 5:05 PM
Hi Vikas and Raj,
Beautiful analysis. Excellent analysis. Extraordinary analysis.I am very lucky, I have got person like you.
I told, BJP should not have any alliance with major party except some small party (Goud and vijaykant). If stop BJP’growth. TRS,TDP,PRP,AIADMK and TMC are not knowing basic of politics.
Alliance is the tool which can stop BJP’growth. TRS,TDP,PRP,AIADMK and TMC are not using this tool. After election TRS,TDP,PRP,AIADMK and TMC will have request with BJP to support BJP. I have already told Congress can not form gov at any cost. Otherwise immediate election will take place. Small parties( which is not part of BJP or Congress) will be wiped out.
February 10, 2009 at 5:07 PM
Dear Raj
Actually wrote BJP slipped by 1-2% in 2004 Lok Sabha elections in AP, I didnot wrote BJP slipped to 1-2%. The preposition used was by not to; which meant from 1999 elections app. 10% BJP came down to 8% (2% less) what you you are writing exactly. anyways it is not a grammar test, we meant same.
February 10, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Yes, BJP’s Candidate in Visakhapatnam is The Most Respected and Most Popular Man in Visakhapatanam.
now on to Telangana Region :
Very good split up by You Sir!!!!
Northern Telangana for sure is A TRS Stronghold .
KCR has Decided to shift to Medhak. In 2004, A Narendra Reddy, the now rebel TRS Leader contested as a TRS Candidate. Now, he may contest as an independant backed by congress or he may join PRP. However, he is involved in Human Tafficking and that would give a Bad Image to PRP. therefore, Chiru may not entertain Narendra.
so, it’s most likely that Narendra would remain in fray as an independant backed by INC.
Even in the worst case, in Central Telangana BJP can Bag in Secunderabad and Malkajigiri. But, with Grand Alliance splitting the muslim vote by fielding an Editor of the urdu daily whose office the MIM attacked(Hyderabadi’s are irked by MIM’s activities), and With Sri Narendra Modi campaigning in Telangana(He will be Addressing Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Karimnagar on 21st Feb), BJP has very High chances of Winning Hyderabad Lok Sabha Seat, though in the assembly segments, BJP’s votes may be split by Lok Satta, but, in Lok Sabha, The Urban Voter would certainly Vote for BJP in Hyderabad Region irrespective of to whom They would vote in assembly.
Chevella is another seat, BJP has high chances, in fact, fair chances I would say. iN MehaboobNagar as well, as indicated by MLC Election, BJP has A Fair Chance, further, BJP’s candidate, Jhansi is considered a Strong Candidate in Mehaboobnagar region.
Nagarkarnool is a Rural Constituency and TDP can retain this seat.
BJP has NO Hope in Khammam, in Nalgonda, too, the pro-telanganaites would sail with TRS.
From Bhuvanagiri(Bhongiri), Vijayashanti has expressed her interest to contest, though Grand Alliance wants her to contest from karimnagar, vijayshani has shown little interest in karimnagar. she wants to contest either from Warrangal (which she claims to be from where her grand parents are)or would settle down with Bhuvanagiri(Bhongiri).
However, TDP would Not sacrifice Warrangal Parliamentary from where their leader, Erraballi Dayakar Rao has won in 2008 By Elections.
so, BJP should concentrate only in Warrangal and Mehaboobabad and BJP should Field C Janga Reddy(Former HanamKonda MP who defeated PV Narasimha Rao in The Pro-NTR Wave in 1984)from Mehaboobabad as, Hanamkonda has been dissolved and Hanamkonda Assembly Segment now falls under Mehaboobabad Parliamentary Constituency. What is Encouraging is that BJP has polled about 25% of Votes in MLC elections in This Region. This is certainly an Encouraging sign. In The Sense that BJP is gaining The Lost Ground in Telangana.
In Khammam, The Only Party that can defeat Renuka Choudary is PRP.
Next take the Northern Telangana Region, The Region where TRS is Extremely Strong.
As I have already Discussed about Karimnagar and Medhak, I will leave these two constituencies here.
Adilabad is A TRS Citadel. However, if Tribals, Particularly Lambadis who are still Staunch Hindus support BJP, BJP can give a good fight here. BJP here is gaining grounds through Raising objections to Babli Project. Congress would recieve a Drubbing here as Congress has NOT Opposed Babli Project. Nizamabad, again TRS Stronghold, but, BJP can put a good fight here and give GA(Grand Alliance of TRS-TDP-CPMP-CPI) A run for it’s money as some of the votes might be split by PRP
The Pedapally MP is A Congress Strong Man G Venkataswamy(His Name was in the rounds for consideration for Presidential Nominations, however, he was disappointed that he could not finally be nominated as UPA Candidate for Presidential Polls), so most likely, congress would be retaining this seat.If I am Not wrong, congress retained peddapally in ’99 as well.
Zahirabad is a New constituency. This has a Vibrant muslim population and borders Karnataka.
Therefore, BJP’s Chances in Zahiabad depand on Two Men apart from The Choice of The Candidate; Sri Narendra Modi and Sri Yeddiyurappa. PS: Zahirabad is A Largely Rural Consttuency and People follow Hindi(urdu) very well here. Therefore, Campaigning by Sri Narendra Bhai Modi(for The Hindu Vote) and Sri Yeddiyurappa(for Rural Vote) will Help BJP a lot and may even give BJP an Edge.
February 10, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Okay.
February 10, 2009 at 5:28 PM
Hindupur was one constituency on which BJP could have Banked as communal tension has created a favourable atmosphere for BJP and in adition, BJP’s Candidate had worked Hard to Nurture The Constituency for the last 4 years. but, entry of N Balakrishna and that He would contest from Hindupur has thrown Water on BJP’s chances here.
February 10, 2009 at 9:43 PM
Hi Raj,
If BJP is going to fight from Hyd seat. Last time TDP was partner, TDP votes was also given to BJP. This time TDP is not with BJP, Will it create problem for BJP ot not.
February 11, 2009 at 5:55 AM
TDP is Not Popular in Hyderabad.
In ’91, ’96, ’98 When BJP Fought The Elections alone, TDP stood a poor fourth in Hyderabad.
February 11, 2009 at 6:55 AM
Hi Raj,
Same may happen with BJP in Dumdum (TMC).
February 11, 2009 at 12:17 PM
Hi All, Further, Losses to TDP, infact, A Major Jolt to TDP in Srikakulam.
I was just following The Events that had happened in the recent months on how many Leaders have joined PRP from other political parties.
In Srikakulam, A Senior TDP Leader, TDLP(Telugu Desam Legislature Party) Deputy Leader has quit TDP and Joined PRP. It seems He is Planning to contest Vizianagaram Lok Sabha Constituency or Etcherla Assembly C onstituency.
He can weild Influence in about 5 assembly constituencies in The Srikakulam Region.He has quit TDP owing differences with The Srikakulam TDP Leader, K.Yerran Naidu. Therefore, TDP which has been winning Srikakulam Parliamentary seat since ’84 may find it hard this time to retain the seat.
However, this has NO Implication to BJP.
BJP is weak in this region.
February 11, 2009 at 12:29 PM
Hi Raj,
TDP has done biggest mistake by breaking relation with BJP. If TDP is going to sit with BJP, Direction of TDP will be clear. I think TDP is directionless party. BJP was most realible party for TDP. TDP has lost most realiable party.
February 12, 2009 at 3:26 AM
It’s good that BJP and TDP have parted ways.
In 2004, TDP Cadres worked for the defeat of BJP candidates.
Further, BJP’s growth got restricted because of TDP
February 12, 2009 at 3:55 AM
Good nNews from Kerala!!!!
Dear Friends, This Time, BJP need Not work for defeating CM as CPM will Defeat CPM in Kerala.
The CPM has categorically stated to V S achutanandan that either side by ethics and be expelled or toe the party line and withdraw the CBI Inquiry against CPM Kerala state Secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan.
While Pinarayi Vijayan enjoys support of CPM Bosses, V S Achutanandan is The Sole Vote Catcher of CPM for common Public, His Expulsion before elections will have serious repurcurions and LF may lose all seats from kerala this time around. Ofcourse, this would benefit mostly Congress.
If V S Achutanandan Buckles under party pressures, and withdraws the CBI Inquiry, then it would send strong signals of LDF Being Corrupt and will have negative effect on LF not only in Kerala but elsewhere as well.
This is the best time for BJP to Win from Kerala and BJP Should Focus only on : Tiruvanantapuram, Palaghat(Palaghat Municipality is Adminsitrated by BJP),Kannur, Trissur and Kasargod.
And try to win 2-3 seats out of these 5 where BJP is Strong.
ofcourse, the remaining would go to UDF led by congress.
But, the great news will be that LF Will be Routed in Kerala!!!
February 12, 2009 at 6:39 AM
Hi Raj,
There is no opposition in Kerala and WB(Left and Congress were sitting in Centre,It is against fundamental principle of politics). Only BJP is opposition. Mamta is not having any credibility. TDP and TRS are not having any credibility.Chiru policy is not clear. It is not difficult for BJP to get good entry for assembly poll(WB,Kerala,TN,AP).
February 12, 2009 at 8:06 AM
BJP has a High Chance of Wining Bishnupur East By Poll in WB where The Candidate is Sri Tapan Gosh and He has been Able to Garner Support from Hindus in Bishnupur. Also, Hindu Groups are active and are being recieved well by the common people here.
AP, I have already discussed a lot about BJP’s prospects and it would be redundatn unless some neews pours in.
February 12, 2009 at 8:27 AM
Hi Raj,
For AP you given information more than sufficient. Give more information about TN,WB and Kerala.
February 12, 2009 at 8:37 AM
Well, Since I am basically from AP, I could give suficient information frm Andhra.
I lived in TamilNadu, but, for that further developments have to take place.
WB , I will post in east India forum.
Kerala, I have to wait for developments.
February 13, 2009 at 2:25 PM
Latest News About BJP in AP :
According to Sri Bandaru Dattatreyya, BJP’s AP State Unit President , BJP has almost Finalized candidates for 30 Lok Sabha and 160 Assembly Segments.
However, BJP beyond Telangana has very little chances except in Visakhapatnam, Narsapur and Hindupur.
February 13, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Hi,
1. BJP should two president. One for Telangana and other for AP-Telangana
2. Naidu should fight election from Nellore.
3. For assembly election BJP should announce two Chief Minister one for
Telangana and other for AP-Telangana
4.BJP should say, BJP chief ministers are best chief minister. They do lot
of developement ( see Shivraj,Modi).
5. Modi and Yedurappa and chief minister candidate of (AP-Telangana)
should have Vikas yatra in (AP-Telangana)
6. Sushma and Telangana chief minister candidate should have Telangana Rath yatra in Telangana.
6. Take care of cadres.
7. All these activities will provide enough base of BJP in AP.
8. Do not worry about insult(BJP chief minister candidates).
It happens in politics.
9. In next election BJP will perform ultimate.
February 13, 2009 at 6:23 PM
Well, Venkaiah Naidu is NOT Contesting the polls.
Sushma Swaraj is prabhari for MP and Chattisgarh.
Also, even if Venkaiah Naidu contests from Nellore, His Home Constituency, It is very hard foe Him to Win in the present situation. Thta would be highly Demoralizing for BJP
BJP is concentrating Only in Telangana and here too BJP should leave constituencies like Khammam, Nagarkarnool and Medhak(from where KCR is likely to contest).
BJP should concentrate in : Secunderabad, Hyderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella,Mehaboobnagar,Mehaboobabad,Zahirabad and KarimNagar. The Most Winnable and Potential Strong holds. In Addition BJP should also put efforts in Nizamabad, Adilabad,Pedapally.
And some efforts in Warrangal, Bhuanagiri(Bhongiri) and Nalgonda(These three are really Hard for BJP to Win)
In The Rest of AP, BJP has High Chances in Visakhapatnam, Fair chances in Narsapur with Hardwork and Crossvoting, Hindupur, again wit hardwork and effective man management along with cross voting.
And can Impress in Vijayawada.
February 13, 2009 at 6:37 PM
I Humbly Tender my Apology to Sri Citizen of AP Gaaru and I am ashamed of myself for usin such Abusive Words Against Him.
I beg for Your Pardon Sir and Wish Chiru ALL THE BEST Whole Heartedly
February 13, 2009 at 6:48 PM
For PRP, There are Good Signs in SriKakulam, Which has been a Stronghold for TDP till ’83.
In Uttar Andhra which Constitutes the following constituencies : Srikakulam, Araku,Vizianagaram(both Araku and Vizianagaram are New constituencies),Visakhapatnam and Anakapalle.
of these five, PRP has Hold over 4. Particularly, in Anakapalle and Vizianagaram, PRP is bound to Win.
As a Result both DP and Congress would be The Real Losers
If TDP loses in Srikakulam, it would demoralize Telugu Desam completely
February 13, 2009 at 6:57 PM
oh!!! BJP Cant Field Janga Reddy from Mahbubabad as it is Reserved for ST.
February 13, 2009 at 7:00 PM
Warrangal too is An SC Constituency now. therefore, te TDP strongman, Erraballi Dayakar Rao cannot fight elections from here. so, BJP Can give a good fight from Warrangal.
umn…
This is Intriguing !!!
February 14, 2009 at 7:21 AM
Great Indepth Analysis Raj.
I agree with you, that BJP should fight it out alone , they’ll expand their base for future as well as get bigger bargain next time.
Advani joins Vaiko for Srilankan Tamil cause @ rediff
Do you think this will make some impact on NDA prospects in TN ?
I feel if NDA muster couple more parties they’ll might touch touble digits in TN.
February 14, 2009 at 7:22 AM
http://specials.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/13sld1-advani-comes-out-in-support-of-lankan-tamils.htm
February 14, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Dear AK, I thanks You for Your Appreciation. But, I have to clarify a lot on Telangana, because, I have mistaken some of the seats to be general, which They arent, hence TDP led Grand Alliance is actually much weaker than I thougt they are.
Though I lived in Chennai for 12 years, I am still Not famliar with TN Politics Deep South.
In Chennai, BJP is Strong only in South Chennai, Particularly Post Delimitation. If there is A DMDK-BJP Alliance, then for sure South Chennai would go The BJP’s Way. Adayar, T-Nagar have large Brahmin and Middle Class Population and therefore, would vote for BJP. In Velachery too, BJP has a good base. Saidapet is A Slum Area(by and large) and would vote for DMK. Shollinganallur would be probably split between DMK and ADMK while Virugambakam would vote for DMDK in Large proportion. Hence, DMDK-BJP Alliance for sure would Win in South Chennai.
Post Delimitation, Aranthangi assembly segment has come under Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency. In Aranthangi, S. Thirunavakarasar who is now in BJP is A Strong Leader and Would Win Even if He stands as an Independent!!! In Addition to Aranthangi, Ramanathapuram Lok Sabha Constituency has Ramanathapuram Assembly segments, which is communally Polarised for the past two years and also Mudukallathur, where RSS is active. Hence, BJP has some chances of winning from here by fielding Their National Vice President, Thiru S Thirunavakarasar from Ramanathapuram.
BJP should also effectively hold it’s folk in Kanniyakumari Parliamentary Constituency, which it has been losing to the likes of Saarath Kumar’s Party which by itself Cant win even a single seat.
BJP cant take any seat for granted in TN and has to put a lot of efforts.
Also, BJP Should Concentrate in select seats in TN and Not in the whole of TN:
SouthChennai,Coimbatore,Kanniyakumari,Ramanathapuram,Tirunalveli,
Sivaganga, Dharmapuri,Tirupattur,Tirichirapally.
February 14, 2009 at 10:03 AM
Post Delimitation, Warrangal has become a Reserved Seat for SC.Therefore, the present warrangal MP of TDP Who won the 2008 By Poll , Erraballi Dayakar Rao cannot contest this time round. same way, BJP’s C Janga Reddy too Cant contest the parliamentary elections.
Hence, Warrangal has to be watched out for.
PRP Will Prove decisive in Warrangal and actually, Warrangal would see a fierce battle.
Another factor is that, None of the four players have a strong Dalit Leader from this region.
Mehboobabad, the constituency sounds like a muslim dominated one, but is infact A ST Reserved Constituency. Infact, All The Assembly Segments in this Constituency are Reserved. The Now Dissappeared Badrachalam(ST) Constituency has become part of Mehbubabad Parliamentary Constituency. Last time, in alliance with TRS and Congress, a communist got elected and most probably he would seek renomination from this constituency this time around(both CP and CPI) are demanding a Lion’s share of 3 parliamentary constituencies from CBN. In This Constituency too PRP would make some Impact, which would benefit BJP more than any other party.
In Badrachalam, Sri Rama Navmy is The Most Popular Festival(InFact, in The Whole of AP, if someone speaks against Sri Ram, they would be rewarded with slippers and would be spit upon, hence the DMK type of Aryan Draviddian divide and rule politics didnt succed in AP) and BJP as well as Sangh Parivar should use this occassion for Bringing in Hindu Natioanlism in The People and bring up Sri Ram Setu Issue here.
Further, The Tribals consider Shabari to be of Their Woman from This Region as this comes under Dandakaranya and it is believed that Sri Ram in Search of Maata Sita Tavelled through these parts of the forest and it is here that Shabari gave the tested fruits to Sri Ram.
This is A Golden Oppurtunity for BJP to gain a Hold in This Region.
February 14, 2009 at 10:25 AM
With regards to AP, there is another dynamic, i.e. assembly elections are also happening along with Lok Sabha.
Since, BJP is strong in Telangana (117 assembly seats).
Even if they can even get 30 seats (1/3rd) and TRS-TDP fall short of 148 (majority mark), i think BJP will extend support to TDP in assembly for TDP-TRS support in center. Because PRP will not extend support to TDP and TDP won’t go with Congress.
Hopefully, that will add 10-15 seats for NDA Govt.
February 14, 2009 at 10:27 AM
correction, 30 (1/4 th)
February 14, 2009 at 10:41 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP can win two seats(Aranthangi, Ramanathapuram) alone if BJP leaders works very hard here. Am i right.Please correct me.
February 14, 2009 at 10:46 AM
Hi AK,
TMC, DMK or AIADMK, (TDP+TRS) or PRP, these parties will have to
support BJP after election. Congress can not form gov in centre at any
cost. If it happens this time, BJP will be strong party in WB and Kerala.
February 14, 2009 at 10:48 AM
Hi AK,
If BJP leaders work hard, definitely BJP will get more than 30 assembly seats in Telangana. TRS+TDP+LEFT is unholy alliance. Left is opposing Telangana. It will create big problem for TRS in Telangana. They have come very clear programs.
February 14, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Ritesh, Aranthangi is An Assembly Segment in Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency
February 14, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Dear AK, Telangana has 119 seats.
Well, I personally feel, Chiru will Win more seats then TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI-MBT alliance.
remember, besides Telangana, This Alliance is Not formidable.
CPM and CPI if they contest elections alone without having any alliance with any Major party, they would come a cropper as it happened in ’99 when CPI Drew a Blank and CPM won 2 seats(very narrowly) in AP Assembly.
Therefore, dont simply go by media buzz that Grand Alliance is formidable combination All over AP.
Due to BJP , in Telangana too, This so grand alliance would Not sweep.
AP Would see a Completely Fractured Verdict.
Chiru’s PRP too would fall short of Majority.
But, If one Splits AP Legislative Assembly, Demographically, in Central and Northern Coastal AP, PRP Would Sweep Elections and with Chiru standing in Tirupati and PRP Well Established in Kurnool, Chiru’s PRP would Win about 110-115 Seats and BJP would Win about 30-35 Assembly segments and hence, PRP-BJP can form Alliance in The State.
Chiru would certainly Oblige, as most of His seats would be from Non Telangana region, and once telangana is formed, His government would become more stable. BJP too would be Happy with this arrangement as : once Telangana is created , even if BJP-PRP Alliance falls short of Majority, if elections are held9I mean i Snap Polls are held in Telangana), BJP would form govt. on it’s own as They did in Karnataka. Further, PRP would extend support to NDA at the centre citing Common Minimum Programme
InFact, this situation is building up in AP
February 14, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Dear Ritesh, TDP and TRS too are Hopless. Though Chandra Babu Naidu earned Respect as An Administrator, as Leader of Opposition, He was a Failure. Thatz the reason, Chiru had to Plunge into Politics.
Dont get me wrong , jhad Chiru Not formed His Party, AP would now be under ysr wave.
February 14, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Hi Raj,
1. It means, BJP can win only one seat Ramanathapuram (If it is possible)from TN.
2.MDMK can have alliance with BJP or not.
February 14, 2009 at 11:52 AM
well, There are some more Potentially Winnable seats for BJP in TamilNadu such as South Chennai, Kanniyakumari, Coimbatore
February 14, 2009 at 11:56 AM
And Remember, BJP can Win Ramanathapuram If And ONLY If BJP Fields Thirunavakarasar as The Candidate. Had BJP Alligned with Jayalalithaa, she would Not have allowed Him to contest as S. Thirunavakarasar is Jayalalithaa’s Bete Noire(Bittter Rival).
It’s Good that BJP’s Aliance with ADMK Didnt Materialize and Jaya has taken left turn.
MDMK may remain with Jayalalithaa and it’s most likely that MDMK Would NOT Forge an Alliance with BJP
February 14, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Latest new, Vaiko & Advani shared a platform for Sri Lankan Tamil Cause.
I think MDMK might join BJP.
http://specials.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/13sld1-advani-comes-out-in-support-of-lankan-tamils.htm
February 14, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Personally, TDP should Bite Dust. TDP cant even Win 50 Assembly Seats this time around and Grand Alliance at the most would win 80 Seats.
February 14, 2009 at 12:19 PM
Hi Raj,
How many min and max seats can be won by PRP in Telangana?
February 14, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Hi Raj,
If PRP and BJP may get 60 seats in Telangana. In that case BJP may
form gov in Telangana. That is why i am saying BJP should work hard for
assembly in Telangana and AP. In politics, anytihing may happen.
February 14, 2009 at 12:22 PM
Hi,
One day BJP will have major role in AP.
February 14, 2009 at 12:58 PM
Dear AK,
Let me Discuss on Rayalaseema, A Political Hot Pot though Politically This Region has now only 52 Assembly segments(1 less post delimitation), this region will decide the fate of the incumbent CM, ysr and former CM, chandra babu Naidu. In Addition, PRP Founder President and Future CM Aspirant Chiranjeevi too is contesting from Tirupati, which is in Rayalaseema.
To make things Hotter(in The Already Hot summer, lol),All Three of Them are contesting from very Nearby Places in The Southern Rayalaseema.
Chiru from Tirupati(in chittoor district)
Chandra Babu Naidu from Kuppam(again in Chittoot district)
ysr from pulivendala(in cuddappah district)
Tirupati is 70 KM North East of Kuppam and Pulivendala is about some 100 KM North West of Tirupati and Kuppam and Pulivendala are about some 120 KM apart. Therefore, This Region would see Intense Campaign(BJP is Not A Player here, particularly when it comes to Assembly Elections in the current scenario)
In Lok Sabha, Rayalaseema has 8 Parliamentary Constituencies of which two ;Tirupati and Chittoor(post delimitation) are Reserved for SC.
In Kurnool, PRP has established a base, as former TDP Strongman Bhuma Nagi Reddy(Former MP Who in ’99 defeated a Former CM and the tallest Factionalist Leader in Kurnool, Kotla Vijay Bhaskar Reddy) and His Wife, Shobha Nagi Reddy(former MLA) are now in PRP and in the recent Alagedda ZPTC Election, PRP supported Independent Candidate Won with an Overwhelming Majority while TDP could just save the deposit.This has sent alarming bellsto TDP in Traditional congress Bastion. Therefore,
1. in Kurnool,The Fight would be Primarily Between PRP and Congress and PRP is Bound to Win Maximum Number of Assembly Segments and also wrest the Parliamentary seat from Congress. TDP would come a poor third here. BJP isnt a player at all in This Region.
2. in Nandyal, which is again in Kurnool District(this is the constituency of former PM, Sri P V Narasimha Rao). No Fresh Data. There has Not been any Popular TDP or Congress Leader from This Region joining PRP. Further, Chiru’s Yatra didnt touch This Constituency. This has Traditionally Been A Congress Stronghold and in this election too, it is most likely that congress would retain Nandyal and the fight is Primarily between Congress and TDP. PRP may give a fight and upset calculations in this region.Again, BJP isnt A Player here.
3.in Anantapur(Another Faction Ridden Hot Bed in Rayalaseema), This City, Anantapur has a Large Following for Chiru. This has a great following for NTR family too. Politically, Congress too is extremely strong here. Hard for PRP to Wrest from congress. TDP Would Fight Hard here as it is a Prestige Issue. The Splitting of Ati Icumbency Votes may Help Congress.
However, VERY IMPORTANT Thing to be Noted : BSP has a decent presence here in some of the constituencies and would Mar The Congress Hopes. In 2005 By Election, when TDP salin MLAs wife won from one of the assembly segments from Anantapur,the congress came a poor third and BSP surprised everyone by coming second.
Again, BJP has No Presence in this constituency
4. Cuddappah, This is the native District of the incumbent CM of AP, ysr. There is A ysr wave in this region.
5.Rajampeta, ysr’s brother is the sitting MP and would retain the seat.This is another constituency in cuddappah district(Rayalaseema has 4 districts and each district has two constituencies, Kunool-Kurnool and Nandyal,Anantapur-Anantapur and Hindupur,Cuddapah-Cuddapah and Rajampeta,Chittoor-Chittoor and Tirupati) and hence will witness ysr wave.
In 4 and 5 too BJP is Not A Major Player.
6. Tirupati(I was Born and Brought up here). This is A Reserved Constituency. With Chiru declaring that He would contest the Tirupati Assembly Constituency, Politics have Spiced up a Lot in this region. AMajority of slum dwellers who have been voting for congress would Vote for PRP this time round and TDP will be a big loser and so would congress in Tirupati Parliamentary Constituency and in a Majority of The Assembly segments. In Addition, TDP is facing infighting in this region as Chandragiri seat is given to Actress Roja(who is now TDP Mahila Morcha President), while chandra babu naidu’s brother has expressed his deisre to contest from here and fought fiercely for the seat.Further, Roja has Acquired a bad name for foul mouthing Chiru and leaving No stone left unturened to Target Chiru and His family members on personal front.
Congress, will face a waterloo here as their MP , P Chinta Mohan is unaccessable to Common Man and he is unrepentant for being so.
BJP Won this seat in ’99 and in ’98 when BJP Contested alone, BJP’s
Candidate came a decent third. He is former IAS Officer. However, due to PRP, BJP may not find it easy this time in Tirupati Lok Sabha Constituency. However, Cross Voting in Urban Tirupati cannot be Ruled out. But. I have to mention here that Even with Cross Voting in favour of BJP Candidate in Urban Tirupati, BJP would Not Win this Parliamentary seat.
7. Chittoor, This has Now become a SC Reserved seat. Therefore, Old Horses cant be fielded. Chittoor has traditionally been a congress stronghold, but presence of Chandra Babu Naidu who fights elections from kuppam which is an assembly segment in Chittoor parliamentary constituency has turned tables in favour of TDP in recent years. Etry of Chiru’s PRP will change a lot of equations and would upset The AppleCart of both TDP and congress in Chittoor Parliamentary constituency and ofcourse even more so in the assembly segments.
Thus, like Anantapur, Chittoor would see a fierce tricorner contest.
BJP again is Not a player here
8. Hindupur: This should be The Most Watched Out C onstituency for BJP Supporters. This would witness a four cornered contest between BJP, TDP, PRP and congress.
BJP has done a Great Ground Work here since 2003 and Their Candidate, a Former Telugu Actor is now The Adopted Son of Hindupur. Further, This Constituency has a Vibrant muslim Population and has Polarized the society.True, Entry of Chiru and Launching of balakrishna from Hindupur has diluted the polarization, but the same can be said of both the communities and Not just The Hindu community. Also, Balakrishna’s routine filmy dialogues and filmy gestures are becoming boring and the enthusiasm is lost. In Addition, Balakrishna has expressed his desire to contest assembly seat and Not lok Sabha seat as he is eyeing the CM’s Chair(which would Only remain a Dream for him). Hence, BJP should carry on the micromanagent in this Particular Constituency and channelize all Their Energy and give a good Fight and if Proper efforts are put, BJP can in fact spring a Surprise from here and Not only Win Hindupur Parliamentary constituency but also win 3 out of 7 assembly segments in this constituency.
February 14, 2009 at 12:59 PM
yes Dear Ritesh, There is a Likely Possibility.of that happening in Telangana.
February 14, 2009 at 1:49 PM
Hi Raj,
How many assembly seats BJP can win from Ap-Telangana.
February 14, 2009 at 2:42 PM
Well,about 25 Assembly Segments, but if BJPO Wins 7 Lok Sabha Seats, then BJP would Win about 35 Assembly Seats in Telangana(In The Best possible case) since, Assembly would vote in the same fashion as Parliament in Telangana region this time.
February 14, 2009 at 2:44 PM
BJP has a Good Chance of Winning about 35-45 Assembly seats in AP this time(ofcourse A Large Chunk in Telangana)
February 14, 2009 at 2:52 PM
Hi Raj,
How many assembly seats BJP can win from Ap-Telangana.
I am not talking about not talking about. talking about (AP -Telangana)
February 14, 2009 at 2:55 PM
talking about (AP -Telangana) means coastal AP and Rayalaseema. assembly seats min and max
February 14, 2009 at 3:37 PM
well, Hardly 8-10 Assembly seats
February 14, 2009 at 3:38 PM
And 3 Lok Sabha Seats
February 14, 2009 at 3:39 PM
one in Rayalaseema (Hindupur) Discussed above and Two in Coastal Andhra(Vsakhapatnam and Narsupur)To Win Narsapur, cross voting is Essential
February 14, 2009 at 4:11 PM
Ah, I am Relieved. The Constituency in Coastal Andhra, from where Chiru is standing(MummidiVaram) doesnt come under Narsapur LokSabha Constituency. This is A Great News and Now, The Chances of BJP Winning from Narsupur Lok Sabha Seat are Very High!!!
February 15, 2009 at 11:21 AM
If There is NO Respite for SriLankan Tamils, dmk-congress combine would Draw A Blank in 2009 Polls.
PMK is already contemplating to Leave UPA,They are just waiting for the poll dates to be announced. And ofcourse, until then anby money Ramdoss can mint money as Health Minister.
February 15, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Hi Raj,
MDMK may come with BJP. Vailko and Advani had meeting in Delhi.
Advani should raise this matter in TN in a big way. Will it be beneficial to BJP.
February 15, 2009 at 1:23 PM
Have to be seen. But, certainly in Central Districts of TamilNadu, Vaiko does hold His Grip. I cant say it would help BJP in A Big Way. However, BJP-DMDK-MDMK Alliance will be Quite Formidabble.
February 15, 2009 at 9:44 PM
AIADMK-MDMK-CPM-CPI alliance is going to win almost all seats from TN this time .PMK may also join with them…BJP needs some allies even to win strongholds like Nagercoil and Coimbatore this time.
February 16, 2009 at 7:18 AM
In TamilNadu Situation is still fluid.
until The Last moment, we cant say who is with whom. Except that Congress -DMK and AIADMK-Left Alliance is in tact.
MDMK,PMK Are Fence Sitters.
In Addition, VCK(Viduthalai Chiruthigal Katchi) also known as Dalit Panthers of India would play a crucial role in central districts of TamilNadu, Particularly in The Chidambaram(Reserved) Parliamentary constituency.
BJP Needs DMDK as a Partner, but, DMDK is The Most Confused Party in TN. Further, Captain Vijaykanth’s silence except for a One Day Token Fast in October on Srilankan Tamil Issue has depleted His Vote Base.
The Return of Marans back to DMK Fold and Temporary settlement of Rivalry between The Two sons of karunanidhi(alagiri and stalin) may help DMK atleast in Chennai-Arcot Divisions.
It also seems that Sharath Kumar’s AISMK is planning an Alliance with DMK-Congress combine. This would Hurt BJP in Kanniyakumari as AISMK is eating into BJP’s Nadar Vote Bank and might help DMK.
However, as of Date BJP-DMDK Alliance Cant be Ruled out.
With more than a month available for Alliances to be Finalized. Nothing can be Ruled Out in Indian Politics, particularly in a state like TN.
February 16, 2009 at 7:32 AM
Sujay, One Cant Rule out Palghat from BJP.
Further this time round, one need not work for the defeat of commies, as commies would defeat themselves. The Two Factions will work against each other and Hence in Regions, BJP is Strong, BJP need not conspire with UDF to Defeat commies.
February 16, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Good News : BJP is Concentrating on South India for Lok Sabha Polls and there is Special Focus on Areas where BJP has a High Chances of Winning as Per Venkaiah Naidu. Recieved This Information from AndhraRajakeeyam.com
Most Likely Venkaiah Naidu will oversee the Electioneering in AP And Andhra Pradesh
February 16, 2009 at 10:27 AM
* I mean, AP and Karnataka
February 16, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Well Raj, Sujay
I have been following allo of you on south also.
On the basis of your information and my analysis I came up with following strategies for South in three sections with conjunctions:
AP (Telangana & Remaining Andhra)
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka
In tamil Nadu, from your observations,
BJP looks to be in winning possibility in 3 seats
Kanniyakumari, South Chennai, Ramanathapuram
BJP should concentrate on these seats first and in any alliance arrangement should not concede these seats to any other party.
There should be strong winnable candidates in these seats.
Also BJP seems to have some influence in Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Tenkasi, Dharmapuri, PuduKottai, Tiruchirappali, Pondicherry.
BJP should try to get these seats also in seat-distribution if any alliance is forged.
The parties available for alliance for BJP & their vote % in last assembly election:
DMDK (8.5%)
DPI or VCK & Dr S. Swamy’s Janta Party (1.5%)
As you have rightly observed PMK & MDMK (6% in assembly elections) are fence sitters & have not taken any position.
Out of them, PMK should be avoided because people like Ambumoni Ramdoss irks many people even in north and he will be big problem in running Central Govt due to his controversial acts.
Vaiko’s MDMK is a good option for BJP as Vaiko has been always appreciative of Vajpayeeji and recently he had joined with Advaniji in New Delhi over SriLankan issue. Also Vaiko has never created any problem for any govt of allies either NDA or UPA.
Actually, BJP should took up plight of Tamils (Indian origin) out of India everywhere as a wider issue, not only SriLanka (but refrain from supporting LTTE). If you remember, an year back there was too much news of attrocities over Hindus (mostly Tamils) in Malaysia (SE Asia).
As DMK is ally to Congress Central Govt and its record of protecting Tamils all over outside India is dismal, so DMK culdn’t use this issue. while AIADMK is already allergic to such issues and Ms. Jayalalitha even went to the extent of justifying acts of Sri Lankan Army/Govt.
this is the point, which is actually distancing MDMK away from it, recent postures of Vaiko.
This is the correct opportunity for BJP, to take this issue in a larger context of Hindutva – Tamil security and rights. This will also bridge the wrong intentional differences created between Hindus & Dravid Tamils, which suits BJP’s inclusivist Hindutva ideology- Tamils Dravidians as an integral part of Hindutva. This issue can give a major break to BJP in TN as there is vaccum on this issue because DMK-Cong. as a ruling state & central party could not speak much and AIADMK has already taken opposite stand.
In last assembly election BJP got 2%+ votes, becuse it was assembly election and BJP was fighting alone with BJP, so many BJP voters didn’t voted or voted for other party winning candidate. So, I estimate they had a vote share of 4-5%, but this can be realised only through right alliance and contesting hopeful seats.
So, BJP should forge alliance with BJP(4-5%) + DMDK (8.5%) + MDMK (6%) + DPI (1.5%) + JP = 20-21% approx.
and BJP should contest at least 10 ( 3 strong seats & 7 other inflential seats, I listed) or max. 12 seats.
Thus, NDA should start with 20% + votes and cross 25% mark.
BJP should not ally with AIADMK at all.
BJP should try to rope in R ajnikant for campaigning, becuse he is opposed to Jayalalitha and NDA without AIADMK will suit him.
BJP should ally with Janta Party, though iot does not much vote share of its own, but Dr. Subramanyam Swami will be a vibrant campaigner for NDA in TN.
He should be fielded from Madurai seat, a 90% urban seat and from where he won earlier in 1998.
Proposed candidates for 3 strong seats:
Ramanathapuram – Thiru S Thirunavakarasar
Kanniyakumari – P. Radhakrishnan
For Chennai South, which has a high Brahmin population, urban area with good colonies and educated classes. I also suppose the North Indians- Gujarathis, Marwaris, Punjabis, Teluguites of Chennai reside in this area and have a substantial vote share.
So I want to suggest who is Tamilian Brahmin married to North indian Punjabi, charismatic, popular attractive, Hindi film actress and BJP woman leader and her name is any guesses.
February 16, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Vikas Ji, PUDUKOTTAI got Disappeared in Delimitation. It is because of This that BJP has Winnability in Ramanathapuram, since Aranthangi which was earlier a part of Puddukottai Parliamentary constituency has Now become part of Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency.
Also, BJP has A Chance of Winning Ramanathapuram if and Only if S. Thirunavakarasar is fielded from here as He is The Most Respected Man and The Most Popular Man in Aranthangi(70% of Aranthangi would vote for S Thirunavakarasar even if He stands as an Independent). In Addition, BJP has a Base in Communally Polarised Ramanathapuram and Mudukkalattur.
February 16, 2009 at 12:05 PM
In Pondicherry, it is Hard to Break The Consolidation of Congress.
If Congress fields The Former CM of Pondicherry, who resigned last sept/october, then more than 70% of Pondicherry would vote for Him.
I am Not exaggerating. With PMK likely to pull out of UPA, I wont be surprised if Congress fields Their Candidate from Pondicerry
However, Fielding a Candidate in Pondicherry is a Prestige issue for BJP.
February 16, 2009 at 12:17 PM
Vikas Ji, even in TN, PMK is considered as a Party of Jokers.
Even Strong BJP Loyalists Would Not vote for BJP in TN,if BJP Forges an Alliance with PMK. And this would only Strengthen the unrelaible and Troublesome Jayalalithaa.
DMDK appears to be The Most Innoculous and Potential Ally for BJP.
The Dalit Parties Dont have unity amongst themselves.
Also, as in AP, The Dalits are NOT united in TN. infact,t here is strong acrimony among the sub sects of dalits.
The Two Prominent Dalit Leaders in TN, Thol Thirumavalavan and Dr. Krishnaswamy Dont see an Eye to Eye with each other. In Addition, They are against Mayawati and Dont accept BSP’s formula of uniting Dalits with Brahmins.
Thatz the reason, despite, strong Anti Brahminist movement in the sixties, TN hasnt seen any strong Dalit Leader and in fact TN Ranks High amongst atrocities to Dalits(by OBCs) among the southern states.
What is ironical is that both dalits and their oppressors, Thevars vote for the same Party, AIADMK. Infact, these two form the core of AIADMK’s(Jayalalithaa’s Party’s) Vote Bank in The Southern Districts.
February 16, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Alo, The Dalit Parties Wont forge an alliance with BJP.
They would just act as spoiler.
However, this time around, they may ally with AIADMK led Grand Alliance.
PMK too is likely to join Jaya Bandwagon.
MDMK may Remain with Jaya or ma opt for BJP depending on how things are cooking up.
Dr. Subramanian Swamy is again unreliable. Dont forget The infamousTea Party Hosted by Dr. Subramanian Swamy in ’99.
Though He commands Respect, He is A Joker in TN Politics.
In ’96 He campaigned for the ouster of Jayalalithaa. Soon thereafter, by september ’96 He Joined hands with JJ for Chennai Mayoral Polls to Help Former IAS Officer V S Chandralekha become Mayor(Incedentally, it was The Acid Attack on V S Chandralekha, Then TIDCO,TamilNadu Industrial Development Corporation Chairperson, which prompted Dr. Subramanian Swamy to launch a Tirade against JJ in mid Nineties).
He was Instrumental in Bringing Down Vaajpayee’s Govt. in ’99 and accused RSS as a communal organization. He sided with Sonia maino then and is now leading a crusade against her.
Seriously, Dr. Subramanian Swamy needs some help.
February 16, 2009 at 12:39 PM
You are Absolutely Right Vikas Ji.
Last time, Dr. Subramanian Swamy wanted a Key Portfolio and He wasnt offered. That irked Him.
He should be probably given a Heavy Cabinet Birth. or, a Ministry has to be created for Him, like Ministry of Planning and Disaster Management. He Deserves, above all He is A Graduate from Indian Institute of Statistics, Kolkatta and Harvard.
If MDMK Joins BJP Alliance then Care should be Taken that Dr. Subramanian Swamy and Vaiko dont share a Dias. They Hold Diametrically Opposite views on Ealam.
If NDA in TN Consistes of BJP+DMDK+MDMK+Dr.Subramanian Swamy+ Dalit Parties, Then; The DalitParties which do Not have A Symbol should be made to contest under JD(U)’s Arrow Symbol.
In 2004, Both Thirumavalavan and Dr. Krishnaswamy contested under JD(U)’s Symbol as their respective parties are Not registered Political Parties with Election Commission.
And Yes, BJP Should Romp in Rajnikanth. NDA Minus AIADMK (Read Jayalalithaa) is what Rajnikanth wants and ofcourse for Both Rajnikanth and Vijaykanth,PMK is A Big NO NO
I personally wish, Latha Rajnikanth(Rajnikanth’s wife) contest as on BJP’s Symbol against Dayanadhi Maran from Central Chennai, A DMK Bastion.
If This Happens, BJP has Hit Bull’s Eye in TN and DMK would be Decimated.
February 16, 2009 at 12:39 PM
Thanks for correcting me over Pudukottai-Ramanathapuram.
Well I suppose because though there is Congress stronghold but no regional party can pose challenge there however owing to Vanniyar population, PMK also claims upport here but PMK should not be included in NDA at all. However DMK has some base there but it is likely to support Congress candidate, further strengthening it. I suppose PMK will join AIADMK-left camp and contest Pondicherry.
As Pondicherry is a Union Territorry, here Lok Sabha are stakes. Therefore no regional party DMDK/MDMK/DPI/JP should be alloted this seat in NDA. Only national party BJP should fight it out with other national party Congress. I had no far hopes of BJP winning there but even if they secured II position over PMK, it may lead them to the position of principal opposition party in future in Pondicherry assembly.
Well you have not made any guesses about Chennai south candidate, I left hints in previous communication.
February 16, 2009 at 12:42 PM
Vaiko is Actually A Nice Man.
When karunanidhi stated in 2006 that his government is “by Non Brahmins of Non Brahmins and for Non Brahmins”, Vaiko was The First and Only Person to Ridicule karunanidhi.
February 16, 2009 at 12:43 PM
Also, Vaiko is The Only Leader from The Dravidian Movement to condemn karunanidhi’s Anti Hindu statements
February 16, 2009 at 12:53 PM
in NDA in TN, BJP Should Fight from 10 Constituencies(also, a tactical understanding with AIADMK is needed, for instance, in constituencies where, BJP has high winnability as in Coimbatore, AIADMK should leave the seat to communists,also Nagercoil seat is currently with commies, since Nagercoil has disappeared post delimitation and Instead, Kanniyakumari has come in it’s place, ADMK should leave this to commies and ADMK cadres can then secretly help BJP, same in Ramanthapuram, leave this to communists, Cho’s Help should be Taken and infact, He being A Master Strategist can help this happen, ofcourse post elections commies will cry foul, but who cares for them anyway).
he alit Parties can field 2 under JD(U) Symbol.
1 for Dr. Subramanian Swamy
10 for MDMK(His Voratory skills will come in Handy)
and reamaining 17 for DMDK
Also BJP should get full backing of Kongu Vellala Gounder community.With A Strong 6% Votebase, They will be Instrumental in deciding The Fate of Candidates in North Western TamilNadu and can effectively counter PMK.
Having Vaiko and Captain in the same alliance is Doubly Beneficial as The Entire Telugu Community(Naidu’s) who constitute 14% of TN Votebank would vote for NDA as both Vaiko and Captain Telugu Naidus.
February 16, 2009 at 12:56 PM
I think I made it clear that BJP Should Field Krishnamachari Srikanth from Chennai.
February 16, 2009 at 1:02 PM
Vikas Ji are You Speaking of Kamal Hassan?
February 16, 2009 at 1:07 PM
Vikas Ji, in Chennai, Marwaris and Gujaratis are actually in North Chennai. South Chennai Consists of Brahmins and some Some Punjabi Community and other Decent Upper Middle Class.
The Reason BJP Could Not Win South Chennai in ’98 was(Though it was a close fight), Tambaram and Alandur which are now part of Kanchipuram(Res) constituency were Assembly segments in South Chennai.
Tambaram has a Huge Christian Population while Alundur is a lower middle class residential area.
Hence, BJP could not win South Chennai then.
Now, post delimitation, it is advantage BJP here.
February 16, 2009 at 1:07 PM
No no from South Chennai
I said BJP woman leader , who is a Tamil Brahmin married to North indian Punjabi, charismatic, popular attractive, Hindi film actress- Dream Girl. Enough hints
February 16, 2009 at 1:14 PM
Hema Malini
hahahaha
But she is Basically from Tirunalveli
February 16, 2009 at 1:16 PM
Not A Bad Choice, since South Chennai has a History of electing Non Locals like R. Venkataraman in ’77 and ’80.
VaijayantiMala(The Famous Bollywood Queen And The First Actress from South to Establish herself in Bollywood) in 84,89.
Incedentally, Both are Brahmins
February 16, 2009 at 1:23 PM
And Regarding Kongu Vellala Gounders:
For BJP it is Not dificul to Attract Kongu Vellala Gounders Votes as BJP Leader and former Coimbatore MP, C P Radhakrishnan is from This Community and also, Kongu Vellala Gounders in Recent Years have Enrolled as RSS Members in The Western Ghats.
February 16, 2009 at 1:28 PM
Therefore, The Brahmin + Kongu Vellala Gounder + Telugu Naidus + sme Dalit Factions if Materializs) will be a very formidable Alliance, even without Dalit Groups, this would constitue over 20% of vote base
February 16, 2009 at 2:49 PM
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Muslim+leaders+seek+BJP+support+to+defeat+MIM&artid=aKSunufVzRc=&SectionID=e7uPP4|pSiw=&MainSectionID=fyV9T2jIa4A=&SectionName=EH8HilNJ2uYAot5nzqumeA==&SEO=
Raj ur comments
February 16, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Vikas/ Raj
The Hindu, the south catholic paper hardly writes anything good about BJP, but this is what they have written about BJP’s Vizag candidate before his candidature was announced..
http://www.hindu.com/2008/10/13/stories/2008101358750300.htm
February 16, 2009 at 2:56 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
In my selection of candidates, I had not gone for the criterion totally, rather I had focussed on personality criterion.
As you have rightly pointed the pro & anti incumbency behaviour always in TN earlier, but this time the situation is fluid and there are also no parallel assembly elections too, which opens an opportunity for new alternative.
So, in such a case candidate, combinatios, local issues and over all Sri Lankan Tamils issue will play a great role.
The alliance objective is to only look winnable in election otherwise party’s own votes go to other winning party candidates or they don’t vote at all.
February 16, 2009 at 3:10 PM
In Tamil Nadu, the way is to success in politics is hard work – not caste, ideology etc.
[disclaimer: i am not saying that TN poltics is good, but the comments are based on history]
In TN the politics is personality based and not party based, that is the simple reason Karuna is not succeed by his son salin, i cannot imagine ADMK without Jaya. This is the most important factor.
Secondly political probation is a must in TN politics, MGR was in politics for 10 yrs before he became CM, same with Jaya and it will be the same with Vijayakant.whereas in AP NTR could win elections after 6 months of starting his party, Chiru is making some imapct within 4 months of his party formation…
If BJP has to do well in TN then for entry into TN Raniji may be the answer for personality based politics but to build a sustainable cadre base the RSS in Tamil Nadu should become less of a Brahmin organisation…
The RSS in TN is Sanskrit centric for obvious reasons, it has to understand the importance of religion and Tamil and hence promote Tamil based Hinduva, which will make it a acceptable organisation for the masses.
February 16, 2009 at 3:48 PM
Well, BJP Should Support on One Condition : He should Contest on JD(U) Symbol, since BJP Symbol may be unacceptable. In Turn, BJP Can assure Him to Make A Minister. Today, Ironical it may Sound, but, ordinary Muslims in Hyderabad are Extremely unhappy with MIM.
Also, BJP should get assurance That Muslims Vote for BJP Candidate, Sirajunnisa Begum(Haj Committe Vice Chairperson,a Muslim Female Candidate) who lost in Yakutpura Last time.Surprisingly, BJP has Not yet announced it’s candidate from Hyderabad.This would be Advantageous for BJP.
PS: Getting Rid of MIM in Hyderabad is Essential.
But, BJP Should Not give away The Seat just like that. Asure Zahid Ali Full Support with a Hitch that He Contests The Elections on JD(U) Symbol.In That case, He Technically becomes JD(U) Candidate and Has to draw the party line.
February 16, 2009 at 3:52 PM
Dear Arun, if The Hindu writes Anything Bad about Sri D V Subba Rao, Then, They would Lose Circulation in Visakhapatnam.That’s the reason, they could only praise Him. still, The Hindu(which is actually The MOST Anti-Hindu Newspaper)wants Him to be out of BJP, which ofcourse Wont Happen.
February 16, 2009 at 3:58 PM
But Dear LKADVANI.IN/Arun, Caste Factor and Emotional Issues too cannot be Ruled out in TN Politics.
And You are Right in Distinguishing between AP and TN, when it comes to influence of Movie Stars in Politics down south.
February 16, 2009 at 4:10 PM
I was fllowing A Disucssion on LKADVANI.IN on how can BJP improve in AP.
Someone pointed out : I dont understand Why there is such a Huge Influence of Movie Stars in Politics Down South.
This is Not completely True.
In Karnataka and Kerala Movie Stars weild Influence to the same extent as In Any other State, I mean, very little and locally if any, limited Only to Their Constituency.
Now let us take TN:
1. for Annadurai and Karunanidhi, Their Political career started way before Their Film Career(Both were Script Writers)
2. for MGR, His Political Career Ran Parallelly with His Film Career
3. Jayalalithaa was long forgotten as an actress by The time She entered direct Electoral Race and had experieince as a Rajya Sabha MP for 4 years before contesting 1989 Assembly Elections.
4. for Captain Vijaykanth too, it has Not been A CakeWalk. No One Ever said, He would Sweep The Polls when He launched His Party. Also, even before He launched His Party ofcially, He encouraged Organizational Secratries of His Fan Clubs to contest panchayat and ward elections in 2001 as Independents.
5. Sharath Kumar,Who would weild Influence in select pockets(Nadar Dominated Souther Districts such as Kanniyakumari), has been in Politics ever since He Joined Tamil Film Industry. He was in Both ADMK and DMK before rejoining ADMK on the eve of 2006 Polls only to quit later and form His Own political outfit.
whereas in AP, NTR, A Political Novice Stormed into Office within 9 Months of Launching The Party. And There are Talks of Chiru Making it Big.
I will explain The Reasons in The Following Communication.
February 16, 2009 at 4:20 PM
For Chiru, The Impact is Predicted to be Huge for One Primary Reason :
Kaapus(Chiranjeevi’s caste) constitute about 18% of AP Population and yet There has Not been A Single Kappu CM of AP till Date. This is The Biggest Advantage for Chiru.Most of Them are in The Coastal Areas and also Kappus are relatively backward though They come under OC(unreserved)
In The case of NTR, it was completely Different. There was a Political Vaccum then. There was NO Major Political Force besides Congress and congress was Highly Centralized. The Popularity and Mass Base of The Leaders were Never the matter of concern is choosing who would be AP CM but sycophancy to Nehru Family was. Every Issue was decided in Delhi and The Government was a mere puppet.
Rajiv Gandhi Abused The CM , Tanguturi Anjaiah as He didnt recieve Rajiv Gandhi at Hyderabad Airport in Person and sought his dismissal as CM. This Incedent was utilized by NTR as Hitting on Telugu Pride and That One Slogan sought Him to Fame and made Him a Political Heavy weight from a Novice.
What added to NTR’s Advantage was : Media, Yes, The Local Telugu Newspaper.
Eenaadu was The Only Major Newspaper then and in Addition there was Andhra Jyothi, as Both were Owned by Kammas(NTR’s Caste), They made things easy for NTR. They wrote Editorials and printed Cartoons on Non Functioning of congress And Highlighted NTR’s Charisma.
Also, NTR made full use of his acting skills in real life.
All this gave huge advantage to TDP Then.
February 16, 2009 at 4:26 PM
* in Choosing
February 16, 2009 at 4:27 PM
And what Happened to Ritesh?
His Arguments and Enthusiasm appear Cute
February 16, 2009 at 5:24 PM
BJP should not support any Muslim candidate independent rather allow hi to fight with trs-tdp-prp-LEFT SUPPort and field its own Hindu candfidate in 3 corneer contest, with other 2 muslim candidates.
February 16, 2009 at 9:18 PM
Hi Raj and Vikas,
BJP should fight 50% seats of TN parliament. If BJP is going less than 50%. It will be blunder of BJP. Main aim of BJP should to create in base in
TN. Do not worry, If BJP needs Jaya, Jaya will come and she will touch
Advaniji’s feet, she would say,”i want to support Advaniji,please accept my
support”. Same will happen with TDP,TRS,PRP,TMC.
I am saying this sentence seriously. Small parties are not having any future without BJP or Congress.If immediately again election takes place,
It will be major loss to small parties(Which are not part of BJP and Congress).
TDP,TRS,PRP,TMC,AIADMK will have to support BJP. They are not having any other option. If you feel let me know. Do you feel RAJ and Vikas.
February 16, 2009 at 11:45 PM
To all the people here , I have been following this thread and I have been reading that you people feel BJP can get 10 seats in AP . But I met Laxman today and he was not at all optimistic and he said in Telanagana they have to get into an alliance with some party or else BJP stands no chance. Please respond as no one in Telangana is taking BJP seriously.
February 17, 2009 at 3:38 AM
Dear Adi.let’s wait till 21st Febrauary and see The Response to Telangana Vijay Sankalp Yatra in KarimNagar which would be Addressed by Modi Ji.
February 17, 2009 at 3:43 AM
Vikas Ji, I have Only Spoken of A Possibility. In Case, if BJP Decides to support Zahid Ali, The Editor of Siasat, then, BJP should force him to contest as JD(U) Candidate or else ask him to face the consequence.
February 17, 2009 at 3:56 AM
I concur with Vikas Ji that BJP shold NEVER Ever make The Mistake of supporting an Independent Muslim Candidate.
If They cant get the assurance of other parties when contested on JD(U) Symbol, how can They expect Hindu’s support. Hindu’s Vote is for A Non Anti-Hindu Government at The Centre.
Also, This is The Most Ideal Situation for BJP to Win Hyderabad Parliamentary constituency, if Zahid Ali refuses to contest on JD(U) Symbol
February 17, 2009 at 12:53 PM
@Raj,
You said Andhra Jyothy supported NTR! The thing you missed is, Andhra Jyothy is bought by a Kamma – Radha Krishna in the year 2002. Before that it used to support Congress.
February 17, 2009 at 1:16 PM
okay Ram.
I am Sorry.
I didnt know about The History of This Paper.
Recently I found that, Andra Jothy too turned out as a mouth piece for TDP . And I thought, it was frm the beginning, A Pro TDP Paper.
Though, m First Language is Telugu and I was born and brough up in Tirupati, I cant Read and Write Telugu, Courtesey of my Schooling in KV. We had Only Hindi and English
February 17, 2009 at 1:27 PM
Ritesh, BJP Cant fight 20 Seats in TN and Pondicherry put together.
In Places like Cudalore, Villupuram, Kanchipuram(Res), Tiruvottiyur, Vellore, BJP Would even find it hard to find a candidate.
Alliances are Quite Essential for BJP and Without Alliances, it’s quite Hard in Places other than Ramanathapuram, South Chennai, Kanniyakumari, Coimbatore, Dharmapuri, Sivaganga and Tiruchirapally even to give a decent fight.
With Strong Alliances (Vaiko and Captain), BJP Can win a majority of these seats.
Alliances(Cold Arithmatic) have a lot of significance in today’s politics, particularly in TN.
Alliance between BJP , Vaiko and Captain is beneficial for All The Partiess as Vaiko’s Oratory Skills can be fully taken advantage of.
He cant have a free hand if He remains in Jaya Bandwagon.
With Left already in Kitty and PMK waiting till the Last moment to switch sides, Vaiko would be given only a few Seats if he remains with ADMK.Also, Jaya would rein him and wont let him go loose.
If e joins NDA , He would have more seats and also would be given a free Hand.
However, BJP and MDMK alone is NOT Feasible in a state like TN. Hence, in TN, Both Vaiko and Captain have to Join NDA.
This Alliance has a potential to come close to ADMK Alliance.
In That case BJP should Fight(14+1 of Pondicherry), 10 for MDMK and 15 for DMDK of Captain VijayKanth. If Dr. Subramanian Swamy Decides to Join NDA then Madurai seat can be left for Him and any one of The Three players should be Ready to accomodate Dr. Subramanian Swamy.
February 17, 2009 at 3:03 PM
BJP should not plkan for even post-election relationship with AIADMK because after joining Govt. Jayalalitha will do daily drama on different issues endless demands damaging image of Government
and most troubling her perennial demand to terminate TN’s DMK Govt without any substantial reason unconstitutionally, which BJP a honest Democratic party and true believer of Federalism will not do and also due to short of majority in Rajya Sabha.
Another big problem she will create will be KAVERI water dispute with Karnataka, she will ask for ingeuine share, which will badly hurt BJP in its only South India stronghold Karnataka.
and also Kaveri is a big issue specially in Vokkalinga dominated South Karnataka (old Mysore) region, where BJP is traditionally weak now it is try to establish it there. Conceding to TN on Kaveri issue over Jayalalitha pressure will weaken BJP here and give an issue to JD(S) & Congress who are already strong here.
For TN BJP should draw long term programmes in association with Vaiko’s MDMK, Captain’s DMDK and with sympathsisers like Rajnikant create its own base.
February 17, 2009 at 3:12 PM
Vikas and all,
TN is a different ball game, it is one place in the country where RSS is literally unknown. I think BJP is much better placed to dominate state affairs in Kerala and AP. For as far as this election, i guess BJP should spend the least in TN.
Jaya is not the Jaya of 1999( PM ambitions), she now realises the importance of BJP as a national ally, because the TN congress has become a sister organisation to DMK. She aligned with left only to weaken the UPA.
February 17, 2009 at 4:00 PM
Dear Arun, One can Never Rely on Jayalalithaa.
only a secret Deal between Jaya and BJP should be Worked out in Coming Polls.
What adds to this is that, Communists and BJP eye the same Seats in Lok Sabha from TN.
For Instance, in The current Lok Sabha, Nagercoil(Which would Hencefort become Kanniyakumari, Post Delimitation), Coimbatore, Madurai(where BJP should leave for Dr. Subramanaina Swamy) are with communists and so, the commies would renominate their sitting MPs.
Other seats, the commies would seek iwould be Nagapattinam(a christian and Muslim Dominated constituency, here again the sitting MP is a commie), Ramanathapuram, Tirupur( Commies wont be allotted more than 6 seats from TN in Any Alliance). Interestingly, with the exception of Nagapattinam, BJP has stakes elsewhere(NOT so Strong in Tirupur, even in Alliance with DMDK and Vaiko).
So, it would be A BJP Vs Commies fight in these Constituencies.
February 17, 2009 at 4:02 PM
Why Jaya Alligned with Left for 2009 Polls?
With BJP, Jaya may Not have any other party as Ally
The Left was vying for DMDK, DMDK Left Alliance would Damage AIADMK more than DMK. Reason : Both DMDK and Left parties are Strong in Those Regions which are considered as ADMK’s Strongholds.
February 17, 2009 at 8:11 PM
Hi,
BJP is future. BJP is not ordinary party. Unluckly BJP is weak in TN, WB,
Keala, AP. One day BJP will get strong support in these region. BJP should not compromise with own base in these states(TN, WB,
Keala, AP.).
February 18, 2009 at 2:15 AM
Regarding AP and Telangana I can give you segment by segment by analysis but then who knows how one is going to vote that day. but when you look at it overall and also consider the Biggest survey(elections in 16 seats which can be called mother of all surveys) in telangana with more than 16 lakh votes taking part (No survey ever polls that many even nation wide) there is a 3 way split in telangana for TDP, COngress and TRS each having 25 to 35 percent votes in each and every constituency.
So even the worst case scenario is that at any place TRS TDP + have anything like 55 percent vote bank to start with and congress has something around 30 percent. pegging it at 35(say a few who make money while sun shines may influence about 5 percent of the voters) at best it would be 35 to 40 percent maximum.
Now enters Chiru. Traditionally NTR fans have been with TDP and also castes that support TDP dont go with chiru. But giving him his due say he cuts equally into TDP+ and congress then it would be like at least 35 to 40 percent for TDP combine and 20 to 25 percent for congress and around 15 to 25 (how much this is going to be will be crucial for success of chiru but beaing the TDP combine for him is going to be gargantuan task.
BJP seems to be a non starter this time bcuz traditionally bjp had stong support in Telangana. But come TRS and most of them except the top leaders have jumped into TRS as BJP was siding with then anti telangana TDP. Now BJP cann’t digest the fact that TDP is supporting the casue of telangana and abusing TRS publicly but that is going to harm BJP more than TRS. Eventually in recent MLC elections Congress Supported BJP in Hyd-kmm-wgl to defeat TRS. COmmies didnt campaign and TDP was silent. Still TRS polled whoppoing 65 percent of graduate votes. BJP with support of Congress only got 25 percent. In Hyd + MLC seat Congress supported Commies to defeat BJP as there was no TRS canditate there and BJP candidate lost there narrowly with 250 votes.
The final outcome would be except for some miracle happens, and a clairvoyant voice tells people to vote chiru enmasse(even his caste is meagre in telangana) he could be only helping TDP combine to win and defeat the congress.
TRS,TDP could as well win 80 to 100+ seats.
congress anything from single digit to over a 10
PRP same (if luck has it it could get 10 to 20
BJP anything in single digit close to ten (especially around hyd).
In rest of Andhra it is going to be three way fight but still if people of andhra vote tactically like they did in 2004 so that TRS wouldn’t command the ruling govt then TDP would have an advantage , even of a couple of seats. In 177 seats. TDP could get anything from 45 to over 70.
If TDP gets the lower side in telangana (of course the combine) like 80 and only 50 in Andhra thy still have aabout 125 to 135. With PRP and congress breaking the other 160 amongh themselves it could be a hung. but most probably scenario is TRS, TDP combine getting anything in the range of 140 plus to 170.
LOK SABHA :
In telangana there are 17 seats. 3 in hyd. BJP would get for sure 2 seats. (N Indrasena reddy going to win over PRP ,NTP Devendar goud and some similar goud that TDP is going to put up in medchal new sat). Secbad BJP more chance. In Hyderabad if all parties support suitable candidate then it could be either that candidate of BJP (MIM going to trounced this year).
Remaining seats are 14.
it could be 0-2 for CPI and M, 6 to 9 for TRS and 2 to 4 for TDP.
In andhra even with a trhree way split of votes of the 25 they have TDP could end up with 8 to 16.
Total TDP TRS could have something like 15 to 28 seats and they would be supporting the NDA combine in next elections.
BJP would have total at lest 20 at minimum to 30(most probably) to supports its government at the center.
February 18, 2009 at 2:21 AM
Once Telangana is formed.
Telangana is going to be a bastion for BJP in coming to power
in next elections as BJP cadre which is now in TRS will push
for an alliance with BJP like in maharastra, orissa and bihar.
Then BJP would be the leading power and TRS its associate.
Once Telangana is formed TRS better concentrate in keeping congress out of power for next 20 to 30 years. And in andhra, chiru can have a ball and even join with BJP as there is not much muslim vote bank in anhra (except some places in rayalaseema, but that is not that great).
So once state of andhra is supported it is going to be a win win situation for BJP.
February 18, 2009 at 2:28 AM
In Khammam Renuka chowdhary is going to loose heavily.
She is making a rucus about un necessary things becuase only recently son of her close follower raped a minor SC girl after abducting her for 2 weeks.
She forced the police not to book a case. But the goondaism of her chamchas is too much to bear for the people in that area.
She could as well lose by more than a lakh or so.
Venkataswamy is putting his son this year and he is going to lose.
(Venkataswamy didnt want to be put to that shame).
In Nalgonda dist, I know the candidates who are standing personally and it is really laughing stock that Chiru expects these candidates to win.
Lok satta is the joker of the pack. Somebody taking it seriously? Dont even waste your time going out to vote for Lok satta better wtch some movie than sweat unncessariliy.
So telangana PRP may be will get some votes may be 10 percent to 15 (even that is decent bcuz it will be like 10 to 20 thousand votes) at the expense of congress and not TDP.
As far as the present situation if congress has any chance in telangana it is the Hyderabad seat that too its ally MIM.
PRP at best can only spoil the chances of Congress, as like someone said Vijay kanth didn in TN affect the poll combinations.
February 18, 2009 at 3:52 AM
Dear Raja Reddy, But, it is equally a Fact that there is YSR Wave in Rayalaseema and of the 52 seats in Rayalaseema, congress would get 40 if there is a 3 way split.
Regarding Telangana, Pedapally( G Venkataswamy) and Khammam(Renuka Choudary) are way Popular and They may retain Their seats.
In coastal Andhra(Central and Northern), PRP is making Huge strides.
The 18% Kaapu Vote is for sure would rally behind Chiru and most of them are in The Coastal Region.
I do agree, that due to the entry of PRP, congress would be relegated to third place in most of the central and north coastal AP, but, TDP would find it extremely Hard. All strong Kaapu Leaders along with Their Cadre have migrated to PRP. It is the pressure within this community because of which congress leaders like buruggedda vedavyas and vangaveeti radha had to join PRP. Shiv Shankar too joined PRP for the same reason.
In Vijayawada, Jagadapati Rajagopal may this time find it very hard.Though He is banking on Ani-Telangana votes, he as a very bad reputation and has done nothing good for the constituency.with his father in law, P Upendra joining PRP, a lot of his supporters would vote for PRP this time or may vote for TDP, since TDP is planning to field Kesineni Nani(The Owner of Kesineni Travels, Kesineni Travels operates the largest number of Volvo Buses in AP). As Kesineni Nani is an estranged kama leader from PRP and is likely to join TDP , the earlier supporters of jagadapati rajagopal would now vote for kesineni to defeat PRP Candidate. therefore,Bezawada(Vijayawada) would witness war between PRP and TDP.
February 18, 2009 at 3:58 AM
Srikakulam, which has been traditionally Voting for TDP is likely to prove a waterloo fo TDP this time.Except for K Yerran Naidu(TDP Parliamentary Party Leader, who has been winning this seat since ’84), all other Major leaders from TDP have joined PRP.
Despite choosing the same candidate for 25 years, srikakulam is a backward, naxalite prone region. There would be Local Anti-Incumbency against him. In addition, there is mass migration of vote base to PRP. Also, The Traditional Anti-TDP Votes would this time be polled to PRP in order to defet TDP Candidates wherever possible(I am speaking with reference to central and North Coastal AP), hence, congress would be wiped off from here.In North Coastal AP, Congress would NOT Be able to win even a single Assembly Seat.
February 18, 2009 at 3:59 AM
The Only Exception being that of Botcha Satyanarayana in Vizianagaram District.
February 18, 2009 at 4:03 AM
oh, Its nice to see that congress is Losing
If Congress loses Khammam and Pedapally, that would be Death Knell for cvongress in Telangana!!!!
MIM has a very bad Image even amongst it’s traditional muslim voters.
MIM is bound to lose Hyderabad.
A 3 Way Contest will Only Benefit BJP
February 18, 2009 at 4:03 AM
* I mean, in Hyderabad.
But, Why is BJP Not able to cut Ice beyond Hyderabad Region?
February 18, 2009 at 4:05 AM
Nice Analysis Raja Reddy Gaaru
February 18, 2009 at 5:25 AM
comedy by IBN: A Ludicrous Report —
Congress News Network-Italian Broadcasters News in a recent survey on AP States “congress would get 45% of Votes, TDP — 30%, BJP — 9%, PRP — 7% , Left — 2% and others — 7% in Lok Sabha Polls
This is A Big Joke — Congress getting 45%
However, if Lok Sabha and Assembly Polls would be Held separately,
Stating PRP would get only 7% is Extremely Foolish on Part of ibnlive. Probably They arent even aware of The Caste Demographies in AP.
While BJP would certainly Poll higher in Lok Sabha Polls then in Assembly in AP even if BJP goes Alone, PRP Wont poll a single digit Vote.
Even in The Worst case Scenario, PRP would Poll 15% of The Popular vote in Assembly and atleast 12% in Lok Sabha(The Cross voting Benefitting BJP)
February 18, 2009 at 10:52 AM
Raj,
PRP to tie up with BJP, read the news article, it must be encouraging.
http://www.andhrarajakeeyam.com/2009/02/chiru-nudges-goud-to-tie-up-with-bjp/
February 18, 2009 at 11:19 AM
Exactly, Dear Arun. Thatz The Reason BJP is Not planninf to contest All The Seats.
If Alliance or Poll Pact Materializes(Most Likely), BJP Should Negotiate for 15 Lok Sabha Seats with 10 in Telangana.
I was about to Post The same News here and Fortunately, Arun Ji has Poted the link.
Chiru was encountering uncomfortable questions on why PRP didnt Tie up with BJP. The Reason is, for Urban Voters, Stand on National Politis too is Quite Important.
In Telangana, with The Formation of Grand Alliance, if PRP goes alonw, they would Not make a Huge Impact. However, in Alliance with BJP(A National Party, Which has Promised The Creation of Telangana), PRP’s gesture would be recieved well.
For BJP too, The Tie up will be Handy as in Rural Areas, BJP Needs An Agressive Cadre and fill in Enthusiasm.
BJP-PRP(NTP most likely to contest on PRP Symbol)will be A Formidable Alliance atleast in 10 -12 out of 17 Lok Sabha Constituencies in Telangana and in as many as 50-60 Assembly Segments of 119.
Further, It is A Must that BJP And PRP come together.
February 18, 2009 at 11:30 AM
In The Event of Alliance between BJP and PRP , BJP Should contest : Secunderabad, Malkajigir, Hyderabad( Move Baddam Balram Reddy from Chevella to Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency),Karimnagar,Mehbubabad(ST),Warrangal(SC) and Zahirabad. Let the other 10 be equally divided by NTP and PRP
Also, BJP should send some of the strong candidates to Assembly.
For Insance, BJP announced Jhansi Rani, a Local Strong Candidate from Mehbubnagar Parliamentary constituency(in December, when There was NO Hope of Alliance between PRP and BJP), but, now, as a result of seat adjustment, BJP should send her to Assembly from one of the constituencies in Mehbubnagar and leave The Parliamentary seat to NTP-PRP
Similarly, as warrangal is A Reserved Constituency, give Assembly ticket to C Janga Reddy(A Strong Pro Telangana Voice, He was one of The Only Two MPs BJP had in Eighth Lok Sabha when elections were held in ’84 imediately after Indira Gandhi’s Assasination)
similarly, give tickets to local strongmen in Assembly
BJP should settle for NO less than 3o Assembly Seats in AP Assembly.
Both These demands are Reasonable and Respectable.
February 18, 2009 at 11:32 AM
But chiru seems to be more interested in Muslim and Christian votes than the BJP votes, in yesterday’s survey by CNN IBN, it showed BJP to have more vote share (9%) than PRP (7%). A tie-up would definitely help to improve the chances of BJP in Telangana, Urban Coastal Andhra and in and around Tirupathi in Rayalseema
February 18, 2009 at 11:34 AM
If the alliance didnot materialize then BJP contest all seats giving tickets to lot of Maala’s to cut into congress vote bank.
February 18, 2009 at 11:37 AM
In The Rest of AP, BJP is Almost Insignificant except for Visakhapatnam, Narsapur and Hindupur Lok Sabha Constituencies.
Since BJP would add to PRP’s Strength and also give PRP a Morale boost in Telangana, BJP Should seek 5 Lok Sabha Seats in The Rest of AP – Visakhapatnam,Narsapur,Bezawada(Vijayawada),Tirupati(Res) and Hindupur.
In Assembly, beyond Telangana region, BJP has virtual Non Presence except in select urban areas in Coastal AP and some scattered seatsin Southern Rayalaseema.
Here, in Southern Rayalaseema, BJP should field Strong Leaders of BJP in The Party in Assembly.BJP can fight in about some 15 -20 Assembly Seats in AP Besides The Telangana Region.
February 18, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Dear Arun, While BJP probably has 9% of Popular Votes(Mostly concentrated in urban areas and semi-urban areas around Hyderabad), Praja Rajyam certainly has much higher Vote Share.
Please remember, CNN is Congress News Network and They want to water down PRP’s Enthusiasm.
CNN Carried a similar ridiculous report before karnataka elections too.
as Per CNN, in TN, Others have a much higher percentage over ADMK, which is A Joke.
I could only laugh at their pathetic unprofession journalism.
February 18, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Raj,
Plz answer my query on Uma Bharathi, in the Norrth India Battle ground forum
February 18, 2009 at 11:55 AM
Dear Arun, without Poll Pact with PRP, BJP too would find it hard besides The Three Hyderabad Parliamentary seats and Visakhapatnam, Narsapur in Andhra.
It is A Win Win for both.
Remember, Chiru is able to sense, it’s not going to be A Cakewalk. TDP All of A Sudden has gained confidence.
Devender Goud is fighting hard to save his political career.
BJP Might be puting a bold face, but, BJP too knows The Reality that even in Telangana, BJP needs a Poll Pact besides the Three Parliamentary Constituencies in The Hyderabad region.
And Remember, This time, It’s Chiru who has taken the initiative for Negotiating the deal with BJP, hence it’s Advantage BJP.
In an era of coalations at the centre, one should have some idea of with whom they would go in The National Politics. Particularly when there are simultaneous polls.
In PRP, A Large section of Leaders including Allu Aravind(Chiranjeevi’s brother in law and the architect of chiru’s political career), Naga Babu(Chiru’s Brother) are in for Alliance with BJP as They are Huge Admirers of RSS(Nagababu told The PRP Cadres that They should be Disciplined like RSS and Heaped Praises on RSS, also Time and Again PRP has praised Gujarat Model of Development particularly on SEZ Issue). The Only one Opposing PRP’s Alliance with BJP is Dr. Mitra, however, he is being sidelined these days and Thatz good news. Ever since Communists joined TDP to form Grand Alliance, Dr. Mitra, The Political Advisor to Chiru has been Sidelined as it is seen His inability to convice The Left Join The MegaStar’s Bandwagon.
Aslo, BJP is The Only Party in AP, Whose Leaders have refrained from Passing Adverse Remarks on Chiru or PRP. To add to it all, NO BJP Leader Jumped to PRP except for Parakala Prabhakar, who anyway doesnt weild much of influence in BJP
February 18, 2009 at 12:54 PM
Hello all!
I had promised to write my analysis for South based on the information provided overhere by many members.
I had already posted my analysis for TN & its Kaveri Karnataka connections hence suggestesd strategies for BJP. I thank all of you giving your valuable feedbacks- LKADVANI.IN, Raj et. al.
LKADVANI.IN u are right and I agree with u, that it is not easy in TN like anywhere else and a party has to do real hardwork create personalities in TN for success.
But If u read my suggestions, I had nowhere expected NDA/BJP winning handful seats there. I was only identifying potential seats from where they can start.
You really very well pointed out: hard ground work, personality, philosophy matteres most in TN.
But for then these things also, U have to start one day, U can not always escape it by alliances.
Although alliance is must required also to look genuinely in the contest but caution it should not be at the cost of potential seats (fighting only 5-6 useless seats), dislodging ideology(DMK’s extreme anti-Hidu, AIADMK’s no SriLankan Tamils sympathy), compromising party interests & growth in stong areas(Karnataka, Kaveri, AIADMK), distracting charismatic personalities from BJP (Rajnikant due to Jayalalitha).
On one point, I would like to differ on the basis of facts, that TN votes completely 100% for one party or alliance guidided by the anti-incumbency principle.
Dear if u see after 1996 no alliance has bagged all seats in LS or Assembly elections (2004 LS elections only exception, when there was a Mega alliance of DMK-Cong with TMC merged-PMK-MDMK-CPI-CPM in front of aweak incumbent AIADMK-BJP, AIADMK was ruling state and BJP at centre then).
Actually in 2006 assembly elections no party even got full majority, DMK is well short of half mark and seriously depends on Cong for its Govt. survival). Last time AIADMK lost govt. but got good no of seats, as afact if Cong leaves DMK and join AIADMK-Left-PMK combine in assembly then they will have majority to form Govt. in TN, even today.
This time in 2009, it is LS elections, no parrallel Assembly elections, there are lot of opportunities for an alternative.
SriLankan Tamils issue is big issue both DMK (bec their UPA Central Govt and state govt did actually nothing worth on this issue) and AIADMK wouldn’t use it.
MDMK & BJP can pick this issue effectively.
It may be argued that the parties MDMK-BJP-DMDK donot have their own party rather they get vote through major ally partner. But there fact t o counter it because there are instances when all these parties fought alone and exhiobited theitr true vote%
In 2001 Ass.election , MDMK fought alone and secured 6%.
In 2006 Ass.election , DMDK fought alone and secured 9%.
In 2006 Ass.election , BJP fought alone and secured 2%+. However it was assembly election BJP’s true potential cannot be weighed as BJP fought alone so it was looking totally out opf fight so many BJP voters voted for second preference other party or winning candidate or stayed away from polling. This makes me tyo estinmate a 5% vote of BJP in TN.
February 18, 2009 at 1:17 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, You made a Great Attempt.
MDMK has A Solid 5% Vote Bank.
BJP in TN has Improved in certain Regions while got depleted in certain others. Yet,further, in 1006 Assembly Elections, Brahmins Voted for ADMK, despite The Ill Treatment of Kanchi Acarya , His Holiness Sri Jayendra Saraswati and Sri Vijeyendra Saraswati. The Reason was, Brahmins in TN are helpless and have NO Other option except to Vote Against DMK.
Even in 2001, when DMK was having an Alliance with BJPin TN, Brahmins exclusively Voted for ADMK and Not for DMK.
But, this time as Jaya has Not paired up with BJP and Instead has taken a Left Turn and is Vying PMK, Brahmins would Vote enmasse for BJP. MDMK has NOT Been Anti-Brahmin. InFact, Vaiko Strongly Reacted to karunanidhi’s anti-Brahminical statements over the past 3 years.Therefore,BJP would get The Brahmin Votes this time around. In The Southern Districts of TamilNadu, There is Increased Violance on Hindus by muslims since 2007. This has in a way Helped BJP in Communally Polarized Situation. Particularly in Ramanathapuram and Then Kasi(Reserved).
February 18, 2009 at 1:21 PM
Vikas Ji, The Combined Vote of BJP-DMDK-MDMK-Dr.Subramanian Swamy would Exceed 20% and can reach upto 25% under Favourable Conditions.
Vaiko Single handedly Help UPA Secure 39 seats in TN through His Padayatra and Voice for Tamil Ealam.
Vaiko is being sidelined by Jaya in The Recenet past.
February 18, 2009 at 1:29 PM
I think BJP can grow only at the cost of ADMK and not DMK. BJP has to be patient until the death of Karuna in TN, which will change the political eqns. BJP if it takes TN seriously, it will cut into ADMK vote share and would help the UPA. I am not for the victory of Jaya but for the defeat of UPA in TN, i dont want BJP to divide the anti-incumbency votes ( mainly in the OC and MBC category)
February 18, 2009 at 1:32 PM
BJP is a potential force in AP, whereas in TN at any cost it can be a spoiler.
BJP should pray that PMK, MDMK and smaller parties should win more seats, in case of requirement of 10 seats in a post poll scenario, these parties would be ready to support BJP for some ministerial births.
February 18, 2009 at 1:35 PM
Raj,
Subramanya swamy is a joker, MDMK and PMK will never accept him. If you think that he will bring Brahmin votes, ur wrong. Infact he is good doing what he is doing now, bashing congress. He should not find any political stronghold, which will be in the interest of the nation,
February 18, 2009 at 1:37 PM
http://www.hindu.com/2009/02/18/stories/2009021857540100.htm
February 18, 2009 at 1:53 PM
OK! Raj
Now I will analyse AP of course on the information available here and other sources and come with up some strategies.
This development PRP coming towards BJP thru NTP is potential and consolidating.
This will clearly consolidate AP political scenario broadly drawn between 3 groups:
BJP-PRP-NTP
TDP-TS-Left
INC-AIMIM
Before going to analysis, one analogy I would like to make which I now see coming up in near future after creation of Telangana, I see a lot of similarity in future political scenario of Telangana state with Jharkand.
Actually, what there are equal no. of relevant in Jharkhand and future Telangana state with almost same type of character, influence and vote support. Here I draw the comparison table
TELANGANA JHARKHAND Status / Role
TRS JMM Parties formed on the sole issue of new state creation and plagued with BIMARU leaders & confused alliances.
TDP RJD Earlier hard opposed new state but later aligned to party formed with aim of creation of new state TRS/JMM
LEFT LEFT Claiming to be most clean but being most criminal inside, always overlooking local people interests and identity.
INC INC Exploiting poor people adivasis, using local leaders, deploying hidden agenda, promoting missionaries terrorist/naxalite in the garb of pseudo-secularisdm, creating instality by abusing democratic constitutional institutions like Governor House.
NTP JD(U) Working as BJP ally for NDA expansion.
BJP BJP The pricipal largest party in Jharkhand, will it get the same status in AP, to be watched.
A Technical hint: In a Match the following problem, if there are 6 items one side A and six on side B and there is only a unique match. then solving for 5 matches correctly, automatically solves the sixth one both the left items on either side had to match. (Academicians & students will understand this clue).
February 18, 2009 at 3:14 PM
correction
BJP BJP The pricipal largest party in Jharkhand, will it get the same status in AP (I mean Telangana) , to be watched.
February 18, 2009 at 4:24 PM
hello wellwishers of india and nationalists.bjp has suffered due to tie up with tdp.thank god its over.bjp shd concentrate on grassroots politics.villages in telengana are turning saffron.many christians are showing interest to return to their roots.but bjp youth leaders shd renew their contact with the masses.politicians like kishan reddy shd be encouraged.policies shd be made in telengane villages. in 5 years from now bjp will sweep telengana.jai shri ram.
February 18, 2009 at 5:13 PM
Vikas Ji, BJP has Potential to Emerge as Principal Party in Telangana Next Elections(i.e., whenever, Telangana Elections are held). I say so, because, as I foresee, Telangana would through up a Hung Assembly once it is created and the depleted congress, the non significant Left and strengthened TDP along with virtually wiped off MIM would join Hands to prevent NDA Government in Telangana, whioch would fall apart in between and fresh elections would be called.By Then, BJP would emerge as Principal Party in Telangana.
Also, during that probation period, VHP Should develop A Base in The Tribal Regions.
February 18, 2009 at 5:16 PM
And Vikas Ji, Sri Ram Navmi is Nearing and Itis A Huge Festival and Celebrated All over Andhra Pradesh with Huge Fanfare, Particularly in Bhadrachalam. unlike, in TN, in AP, Ram is Worshipped NOT Just by Brahmins but by All Hindus.
NTR Could succeed in Politics because His Images in LuvKush as Sri Ram were used as cut outs. RamRajya is The Word Till Date Politicians in AP use.
February 18, 2009 at 5:17 PM
And Vikas Ji, Raja Redy Gaaru’s Insightful Analysis is Really Great and useful.
February 18, 2009 at 5:21 PM
Dear Arun, There is Wide Spread Frustration and Disenchantment with both UPA at centre at DMK in the state if NOT Anger for complete non governance.
It’s Not clear, if There would be Rigid Votebanks this time around. Traditional DMK votes may repel to MDMK and DMDK if Well Campaigned. Further, The Fluid Votes are the one’s NDA has to capitalize.
PS: I do Admire Ms Jayalalithaa as An Able Administrator. InFact, She is as Good Administrator as Modi Ji. But, She isnt Reliable.
February 18, 2009 at 6:06 PM
Dear Arun, Maal’s Would Remain With Congress and Not vote for BJP as BJP is in favour of SC Categorization. If Reservations for SCs are Categorized in AP, Then, it is The Maala Community which would be Most Affected. records Show That,70% of Beneficiaries of Resertvations for SCs in AP have been Maala’s. This is Much Higher then Their Population among SCs. The Maadiga’s constitute as much as 60% of SCs in AP but they lag behind The Maalas in Education and Employment. Further, since, Maala’s are followers of Reddy’s The Dominant Caste in Congress in AP, Congress Leaders Patronized The Maal Community.
Hence, it is Not an easy task to break the consolidation of maala votes from congress. Maadigas have traditionally sided with TDP.
It is BSP, which is actually cutting into The Maala Votes of Congress.
February 18, 2009 at 6:10 PM
In 2004, BSP Polled About 3.5% of Popular Vote in AP.
This time around, with Media blowing up Mayawati as A National Figure, BSP is likely to Poll about 4.5-5% of Popular Vote in AP and may even Poll as High as 6% cutting into both The maala vote base of congress and maadiga vote base of TDP
February 18, 2009 at 8:01 PM
BJP should cut into to some other dominant caste, by contesting all the seats if the alliance with PRP does not emerge!!
February 19, 2009 at 12:18 AM
CNN ibn seems to have conducted the poll long before the alliance took place. EVen that time the poll looks like a doctored one.
Because it should have taken a clue from mother of all surveys the elections in 16 assembly and 4 Loksabha where more than 16 lakh voters really voted not just participated in some survey which doesn’t give the real feel of the poll. If i were asked by suvey pollsters of CNN i would say YSR is the best PM in the world and his son should be made the CM of ap only to fool the CNN idiots.
Come to the real joke part, they didnt’ say anything about TRS but the survey says 65 percent in telangana are in favor of separate state of telangana. Then what happened to the TRS vote base.
What i would suggest is, some one who is not being well paid was assigned to write some hoax survey report and he wanted to exposed the stained and torn undies inside the cost suits of CNN idiots.(Pun intended). He might have deliberately excluded TRS so that everyone can immediately realize the fraud, like AajTak found out the suitcase scam that CNN tried to foist on Arun jaitley through doctored video.
CNN IBN report is doctored by YSR who can pay any amount for such a propoganda especially as his party could even face a route if the arithmetics of the votes plays some magic even though congress still gets around 25 percent votes.
February 19, 2009 at 12:24 AM
Latest news is PRP Chiru is trying to dig his own grave by time again mud slinging on the BJP that it is communal and he would never join BJP under any circumstances( Today on news) while BJP is busy slandering the TRS against its decision to go with TDP.NTP wants to align with PRP and also BJP now that is something one would like to watch how it is going to happen as PRP is dead against BJP before elections at the least.
So it is going to be a four cornered contest in AP :
Cong + MIM + soemother minor parties with one two seats
TRS TDP CPI and CPM
PRP and NTP or no NTP
BJP and NTP or NTP
and Lok satta plus some other non players.(not a major front but could win like 1 to 2 percent and could still play with the chances of a few individuals at some places though meagre in number).
February 19, 2009 at 12:37 AM
The irony here is most of the people who just visit towns and cities in around Hyderabad donot go to villages in telangana.
WIth TRS TDP CPI and CPM joining ,congress leaders are not even considering to campaign they have alredy resigned themselves to defeat.
Most of my friends are gross root level (mandal dist level) leaders in congress. One of my cousin is a district level leader enjoying some political post and power. He used to be a loud supported of “gods son” YSR. When i talked to him recently he was talking in terms of “if only even one who profited from us, through the housing scheme, this that etc voted for us……” that speaks the situation.
For example in NLG from Sagar constituency, AP Home Minister Jana reddy is facing heavy odds against US returned Industrialist Dr. Chinnapa Reddy of TDP and with TRS support thrown in he is way way ahead of Jana reddy in terms of campaign and support. That throws huge problems in for Central minister Sudini Jaipal Reddy who is in double mind whether to stand from Nalgonda for loksabha where TDP has announced G Sukhendar reddy, who has strongly voiced support for telangana within his party even threatened to leave the party. So, the chances are 50 ,50 that if Jaipal reddy contests from Nalgonda. The talk of the town is congress is going to get quite a few shocks in Nalgonda district for ministers at state and center cabinet.
Khammam peple say Renuka chowdary’s chanceas are also very remote.
February 19, 2009 at 6:23 AM
Dear Raja Reddy Gaaru, I feel You mean to say, Four Cornered Contest in Telangana and Not whole of AP.
The Die-Hard Well Wisher, I am of BJP, yet, I would Rather side with Truth instead of fabricating lies and decieving myself as The Communal News Network-IslamoChurchist BroadcastersNetwork and Never Deliver True Version do.
BJP is A Non Player or I would Even go to the extent of saying Non Existent in Rayalaseema except for select seats in SouthernRayalaseema. With The Exception of Hindupur, BJP would Not be considered A Player in any other Lok Sabha Constituencies in The Eight Parliamentary Constituencies of Rayalaseema, if BJP Doesnt have A Poll Pact.
Similarly, In Coastal Andhra Pradesh too, while in Visakhapatnam BJP is A Serious Contender,In Narsapur too, BJP would give a Good Fight and may wrest the seat this time.
But, Elsewhere, BJP has Marginal Presence. Except for Bezawada East, Guntur-I and Rajamundry Urban Assembly Constituencies.
It’s Only in Urban Telangana that BJP has A Presence, Particularly Concentrated in Hyderabad Region.
February 19, 2009 at 6:27 AM
Dear Raja Reddy Gaaru, I Never even thought Jaipal Reddy would be winning a Constituency for congress.He has NO Hopes.
He is likely to contest either from Mehbubnagar or Nalgonda.
Anyway, He is Bound to lose.
February 19, 2009 at 6:29 AM
Jaipal Reddy is NO Match to Sukhander Reddy.
Jaipal Reddy Maintained high profile during United Front when he was in Janata Dal. But, in congres, he is being Humiliated.
February 19, 2009 at 6:46 AM
If Chiru is Relectant to Have A Poll Pact with BJP as He is brushing aside the developments as Media Speculation, then NTP Should Join Hands with BJP in Telangana.
This would leave PRP in Telangana completely Disheartened.
Chiru can still Bank on Central and Coastal AP.
February 19, 2009 at 6:48 AM
* I Mean, Central And North Coastal AP known as Konaaseema(The Region Between and Around The Two Pernial Rivers,Viz Krishna-Godavari) and Uttar Andhra, These two regions account for about 14 Lok Sabha Seats, of which Chiru can bank on atleast 7-9 of them.
February 19, 2009 at 6:57 AM
The one Who is MisGuiding Chiru is Dr. Mitra.
being a communist, he is acting as a Grand Alliance Agent and is working for the benefit of grand alliance
February 19, 2009 at 9:07 AM
Chiru has to get Rid of The Good for Nothing Communist Mole, Dr. P Mitra.yeah, he is a communist.
And do You guys know where He did His Medicine? in UK.
One Thing common with All the communists is : Enjoy The Benefits and Abuse The same to Deny what You Reaped to Others.
PRP Cant win more than 40-50 Assembly segments, if Chiru sticks to Dr. P Mitra
February 19, 2009 at 10:17 AM
I am really worried about BJP prospects in Karnataka, with SM Krishna, Dharam Singh, Bagarappa, Karge contesting elections and with their secret alliance with JD(s) congress can dent BJPs chances…
Also the popularity of the government is at a all time low…
February 19, 2009 at 10:37 AM
Arun, these idiots contested elections in 2008 too.
what could they achieve, nothing.
February 19, 2009 at 10:51 AM
That time BJP did not face anti-incumbency, now it does….
Actually Upper caste and Lingayats voted for BJP, now SM Krishna is wooing Upper caste votes to congress… I think we cant take Karnataka lightly…
Sadananda Gowda needs to work hard, he is a brilliant chap, he is the electoral brain for BJP in Karnataka whose face is Yedurappa and Ananth Kumar
February 19, 2009 at 11:15 AM
BJP is still Highly Popular in Karnataka.
SM Krishna is a vokalinga, and he can only get the votes from JD(S) if any.
It’s incorrect to say, BJP is facing Anti-Incumbency in Karnataka.
Further, The Cadres of JD(S) would not work for the benefit of congress and vice versa.
February 19, 2009 at 7:27 PM
Changing Political Equations in TamilNadu :
AIADMK Gen Sec, Jayalalithaa appeals to congress to end Ties with DMK. If That is so, AIADMK-PMK-INC are likely to form an Alliance.
Here’sCatch-22 Situation.
BJP Should Formalize Alliance with DMDK and MDMK before Congress-AIADMK -PMK Alliance is Finalized, otherwise, Lest would Allign with DMDK and MDMK. BJP Would Then Draw A Blank as It has to go Alone in TN for BJP Cant Allign with DMK at any Cost.
If BJP-DMDK-MDMK alliance gets Materialized before congress heads to Jaya(However congress Alliance with Jaya is Difficult for Chidambaram is Pro-DMK and would Advise sonia maino Not to break away from DMK)
February 19, 2009 at 7:59 PM
No ADMK and Congress will never align as long as Karunanidhi is alive
February 19, 2009 at 8:08 PM
Hi Raj and Vikas,
BJP Should Formalize Alliance with DMDK and MDMK. BJP should fight
on 20 seats and 50% of assembly seats. That way BJP will win elcection and will create own base in TN.
February 19, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Ritesh,
If the Lankan issue is not solved in a weeks time, there is a possibility of PMK, MDMK, VCK and BJP coming together in the elections..
In that case the alliance is capable of winning 7-9 seats like villupuram, chidambaram, sivakasi, meetur, Kovai and trichy..
I see a lot of anger against Congress and DMK for not doing anyhting and ADMK for not participating in the protests…..
February 19, 2009 at 8:27 PM
Dear Ritesh, Your Enthusiasm seams Cute, But Honestly BJP can only field in about 12 Lok Sabha Seats from TN and Pondicherry Put together. Viz, South Chennai, Kanniyakumari,Coimbatore, SivaGanga,
Ramanathapuram,Tirunalveli,Tiruchirapally,ThenKasi,Tirupur,
Dharmapuri,Myladutharai—Should be Pronounced as : My(as in Mysore) La (as in Lahore) du (as do) Tha — as in Thanjavur Rai(as Ri in Rice) and Pondicherry
at the most BJP can field in 3 more.
BJP Cant field candidates in 20 constituencies in TN.
Safer would be : BJP 10, MDMK 10 and DMDK 20.
February 19, 2009 at 8:31 PM
Dear Arun , I can stand even VCK, but, PMK is A Big NO.
Even BJP Sympathisers like me would be upset if BJP Allies with PMK.
Please Remember,BJP Would Not get The Crucial Support of Rajnikanth if PMK is entertained in NDA.
Let me bring to All You Guys that in ’99, Despite that BJP And DMK were partners, due to the presence of PMK, Rajni Asked His supporters to vote for TMC formed by Moopanar
February 19, 2009 at 8:39 PM
Sivakasi is MDMK Stronghold.
Therefore, Vaiko Should be Encouraged to Fight from Chennai Central against Dayanidhi Maran.
Let me bring to The Notice of You Guys that in ’96, it was MDMK that gave a fight to Murasoli Maran from Central Chennai.
Vaiko alone can break DMK’s Monopoly from here and for that He needs An Alliance Partner.
BJP-DMDK-VCK would Certainly be able to Give a Tough Fight to DMK in Central Chennai and if Vaiko Stands from here, He has Potential to Win against Dayanidhi Maran. Also, Vaiko has some personal issues to be settled from marans due to Sun TV which Never Broadcasted Vaiko’s speeches, Even when Vaiko was part of DMK Coalation and when Vaiko campaigned for dayanidhi maran in 2004.
Reason: DMK Feared Coverage of Vaiko’s Fiery and Emotionally Motivating Speeches would attract The Youth to Vaiko and that would Erode DMK’s VoteBase.
February 19, 2009 at 8:42 PM
VCK is NOT A Registered Party under Election Commission. They are actually A Radical Party and Boycoutted Elections until recently.It’s only since 2001 that VCK Contested Elections. In 2004, They Contested under JD(U) Symbol.so, This time too, they would look for some National Party to lend them symbol.
February 19, 2009 at 9:03 PM
For this election, Rajini will not support any alliance, he is busy shooting for Indran. Also there is much hype in this forum of Rajini support, out of my experience in following TN politics, I can definitely tell u that not even a single voter will vote based on Rajini’s supports.
Yes Rajini will become a potential force, if he enters political fray, but from outside i think he will have no impact. If there is an arrangement like MDMK + PMK + VCK + BJP then all the actors would support the same as they have been very vocal about the Lankan cause.
February 19, 2009 at 9:10 PM
But, what about DMDK?
We cant expect DMDK and PMK to be on the same side.
If Only DMDK tries to dig it’s own Pit as is Chiru doing foolishly by banking on the communist mole, Dr. Mithra, should BJP and PMK Reach A Poll Pact.
I would Still feel, Have DMDK and PMK instead of PMK.
let PMK go with Jaya and Left.
February 19, 2009 at 10:16 PM
Raj,
I guess ur getting excited about the 10% vote share of DMDK, but u should also appreciate the fact that this vote bank is not concerned and is scattered, it is basically a vote bank which will get bigger only when one of DMK parties becomes extinct.(It is expected that after Karuna death, it is expected that he and jaya will become the 2 poles of TN politics). But the PMK with the support of Vanniyar community is decisive in 4-5 constituencies. I think BJP should be more interested in winning seats than higher vote share.
February 19, 2009 at 10:40 PM
Dear Arun, DMDK did Particularly well in The Vanniyar Belt.
It was NOT A completely Scattered Vote Share.
if BJP Allies with PMK, BJP is bound to lose Kongu Vellelar Gounder Votes, who account fopr some 6-7% of vote share. Vaiko and MDMK would consolidate the entire Telugu Naidu community(about 17%) to NDA. Also, Brahmins Dont like PMK. And Alligning with PMK would Imply that Brahmin votes would remain with AIADMK..
PMK is decisive in Constituencies such as Dharmapuri,Mayiladuthurai,Salem,Namakkal,Erode, Coimbatore,Tirupur, Dindigul,Pondicherry,Arani.
But, The Support of Kongu Vellelar Community can Neutralize PMK efect. Vanniyars and Kongu Vellelar Gounders Have A Strong Dislike for Each other. Again, The Kongu Vellelar -Brahmins and Telugu Naidu Community accounts to 26% of TN Population and even if NDA gets 80% of these votes, NDA would have about 21% of The Popular Vote. In Addition, BJP can consolidate in Southern Strongholds of Ramanathapuram,Sivaganga and Kanniyakumari
February 19, 2009 at 10:43 PM
And Dear Arun, Sivakasi and Meetur have got disappeared in DeLimitation.
Sivakasi is now A Part of Virudanagar Parliamentary Constituency
and Mettur is a part of Dharmapuri Constituency.
February 20, 2009 at 10:41 AM
As per CNN IBN Poll for TN, the stand alone votes for parties are,
BJP 6%
DMDK 9%
PMK 6%
MDMK 1%
AIADMK 28%
DMK 28%
Congress 13%
Left 3%
I guess that’s why AIADMK is desperate for Congress vote share as left is just 3% compared to Congress 13%.
However, if BJP+MDMK+PMK Come together it is 21% and there might be some alliance effect taking it up to 25%. That would be formidable in atleast 15-20 seats.
I think DMDK should have alliance with BJP, as Standalone they can’t get anything. Once these two are together , others will be keen to join. PMK has a history of being a fence sitter. I feel alliance will materialize by march mid.
As of AP, NTP will join BJP, may even contest on its symbol as they can’t rely on Chiru in Telangana. If they fail to win seats, Devender Gaud is history. Best scenario would be if BJP holds the key to assembly with 30-40 seats , with either TDP or PRP falling short of magic number. I hate the arrogance in Chiru, but I guess it happens as he novice in Politics, Same thing happened with Vijaykanth. I hope they learn fast.
February 20, 2009 at 10:42 AM
Dear all
Last day’s news of AIADMK appeal to Congress for parting ways with DMK looks quite meaningful, because
everybody in TN knows DMK is bound to loose because of state level anti-incumbency and their flip-flop over emotional Sri-Lankan Tamil issue.
The Congress is the biggest opportunist party with no record oflong term relationship with allies, it has a habit of use & throw (rightly pointed out by Amar Singh). So it will not think twice to swap allies for electoral benefits because the crucial support of DMK for Central Govt. surbvival is over now. Cong. has a long record of fighting elections in TN alternatively with DMK & AIADMK.
AIADMK sees benefit as it will get support of a national party (they had decided to go without BJP already to look so-called secular). The biggest benefit, they are eyeing is as Cong will come out of DMK association in TN, Karunanidhi DMK Govt. will collapse in Assembly.( I pointed that DMK has no full majority in Assembly in replying to LKADVANI.IN, the days of one side sweep are over in TN) .Then Jaya may try to form an alternative Govt. in TN (TN assembly: AIADMK 61 + PMK 18 + Cong 34 + Ind. 1 = 114).
They might be counting on Left MLA’s also, which is a crucial point, Left are with AIADMK uptill AIADMK is not in alliance with Cong and DMK is with Cong. The Cong. will leave DMK left will join DMK front. So the DMK Govt. fall is confirmed but installation of Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK-Cong-PMK Govt is to be watched out. There is also possibility of Assembly termination and Mid-Term Assembly Elections in TN.
However, in such an eventuallity, the the tie-ups may take shape like:
AIADMK-Congress
DMK-CPI-CPM
Position of PMK will be watch out, if alternative Govt. is formed and PMK gets good ministries, then it will sail with AIADMK-Congress,
else if there are mid term elections of Assembly then whosoever DMK or AIADMK offers more seat to PMK, it will go with them, most likely DMK.
The best strategy for BJP:
To forge alliance with DMDK, MDMK, VCK (may contest on JD-U symbol), Jantha Party (Dr. Subramaniam Swami), and
sought support of Rajnikant (caution: don’t have any relation with Jayalalithaa AIADMK & PMK)
Pick the issue of human rights of Tamils abroad seriously, focus on Sri Lanka, Malaysia.
Make deals finalise, decide best suitable candidates and hence seat sharing.
Lok Sabha (BJP: 12 inc. Pondicherry, DMDK: 15, MDMK: 10, VCK/JDU 2, JP-Dr. Swamy: 1)
If snap Assembly polls take place, then TN Assembly seats sharing
(DMDK 100, MDMK 75, BJP 50, VCK/JDU/JP 9)
February 20, 2009 at 10:56 AM
Dear AK
we all know politics is not only arithmetics, it is a chemistry, where metals metals dont react to combine.
further, the biggest flaw of CNN-IBN opinion poll is vote % of MDMK which they estimated to be 1% is a big joke, even at instances when they fought alone without any major issue (2001) they got 6% votes, now with an effective issue of Sri Lankan Tamils and DMK’s mum over it, anyone expect it to reach upto even 10%.
(I think CNN-IBN electronic clerks have dropped 0 while reporting as mistake and wrote 1%)
Another flaw % of Cong. is over hyped at 13%, I think it should be between 8-10%.
February 20, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Hey Friens, on Ram Sethu Issue :
DMDK, MDMK nad even Dalit Party Leader like Dr. Krsihnaswamy has sided with BJP
February 20, 2009 at 11:27 AM
Will Union Women & Child Welfare Minister RENUKA CHOWDHARY speak and take action on this issue ?
Will any Deepa Mehta ever make a movie over this story?
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/kerala-nun-alleges-sexual-harassment-in-convents/85844-3.html
No never this doesnot suit their pseudo-secular interests they are busy with barking over non-entity Sri Ram Sene activities.
February 20, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Dear AK, I Seriously Wonder how ibn comes with ludicrous break up.
MDMK has a Much higher Vote Base then 1%
probably ibn is trying to say, Vaiko has NO Future besides UPA and He should return to UPA Fold.
cnn-ibn breakup surveys Are Fraud.
February 20, 2009 at 11:31 AM
well said Vikas Ji,In My earlier Days, I was a Left Leaning Person. But, as I grew, I founf that their Only Objective seems to be Portray India and Indian Values in Bad Light and Project christianity as a possitive. This IslamoChurchism of communists has made me An Anti-Communist.
February 20, 2009 at 11:33 AM
Dear AK, I wont say It’s Chiru’s Arrogance in NOT Allying with BJP.
But, his Naiveness.
He has Politically surrendered to Dr. P Mithra, who is a Known Communist, his entire family are communists.
This Dr. Mithra will Sabotage Chiru’s Chances as CM this time.
February 20, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Hmmm,
Janatha party and MDMK in the same alliance is a dream!!! Subramanian Swamy is a joke, he has represented my constituency once in lok sabha and if u ask anyone in my place about SS, they would show their slippers!!! be it from any caste!!!!
ADMK call for congress will never materialise, because PC, GK Vasan, Thangabalu, Mani – all these people cannot even see face to face with Jaya. It is a statement actual to woo the dissents in the congress to ADMK and is wrongly quoted by the press as an offer of friendship, congress in TN very well knows that if they decide to go with ADMK, there would be another Tamil Manilla Congress ( i think sonia would like to avoid the same). Jaya on her part is trying to create unhappiness among the state congress leaders( who were not given ministerial posts in the Minority DMK govt.). As far as the Tamil issue is concern, the gainers at the movement seem to be PMK, MDMK, LEFT, VCK and BJP, ther is anger towards DMK, Congress for not doing enough and ADMK for not participating in the protests!!!
February 20, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Dear Vikas Ji, Congress would Not even get the 8% votes it got in ’98 when they contested alone in the wake of Jain Commission Interim Report.
The inaction and opposition to Ealam have actually doomed the congress.
While BJP would have probably gained around 4%, I am apprehensive of 6% votebase to BJP in TN.
BJP’s Presence is Localized in Discrete Towns. Therefore, BJP’S Vote base may Not be more than 4.5% in TN
Only about DMDK they have come right.
DMK even in 2006, Polled only 25% of Popular Vote and now, there is WideSpread Anger and Disenchantments with DMK for complete Non Governance and Sacrificing Tamil Issues for the sake of power.
DMK’s vote percentage would fall down to 21% or even below 20%, if MDMK is given as many as 10-12 seats in Alliance and Contests Particularly against DMK in 2009.
Jayalalithaa has more than 30% votebase. Even in Adverse Situation, AIADMK Never polled below30% of Popular Vote(Even in ’96 when there was wide spread anger against her)
February 20, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Arun, are You from Madurai or Mumbai. Because, Dr. Subramanian Swamy Represented North Mumbai in ’77 and ’80 and Madurai in ’98.
Well, Dr. Subramanian Swamy is An Intellectual but Politically He is A Joker and Isnt a Vote Catcher.
Further, He is Quite demanding.
Hence, drop Dr. Swamy and opt for Vaiko
February 20, 2009 at 11:43 AM
I vividly remember the scenes of Subramanian Swamy saying he will convert his constituency into Singapore!!!
People still laugh at the same even today!!!
February 20, 2009 at 11:45 AM
Madurai is my native!!!
February 20, 2009 at 11:50 AM
I agree with Arun, Leave Dr. Subramanian Swamy to Flirt with AIADMK
The Likely Alliances for TN Will Be:
DMK-Congress(Firm)— Bound to Lose Badly, will end up with only 5-6 seats
AIADMK-PMK-CPM-CPI-Dr.Subramanian Swamy-VCK-INL(A Muslim Party) — will Win anywhere from 20-25 seats
BJP-DMDK-MDMK-Puthiya Tamizhagam(would fight under D-USymbolas They did in ’04)— Has A Potential to Win anywhere between 12-15 seats
February 20, 2009 at 11:51 AM
okay
February 20, 2009 at 11:52 AM
VCk will never go with Jaya
February 20, 2009 at 11:53 AM
VCK is better than Pudiya tamilagam
February 20, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Many Observes feel, post karunanidhi’s death, it would be DMDK that would be the greatest beneficiery as a result of infighting in DMK. However, I feel, that, MDMK Would Benefit much by the fall of DMK. DMDK has a potential to eat more into ADMK’s vote then the DMK’s. The same with BJP.
Hence, it is important that in This election, BJP Romps is Vaiko and DMDK into NDA.
BJP Should Speak of Tamil Issue in The Manifessto and Declare the same by organizing a Rally in TN(Chennai/Soume Southern TN Constituency)
Since AIADMK would NOT Care much about Ealam, MDMK will find it hard to continue with Jaya.
February 20, 2009 at 12:05 PM
yep, in terms of Electoral Politics. But, Both can join Hands together as They did in 2004.
February 20, 2009 at 12:17 PM
BJP should not do the mistake it did in WB, the rise of BJP in the late 90s was coupled by strong local leaders, for instance in UP Vajpayee along with the spectrum of Vinay, Kalyan and Rajanth took forward the party, in Gujarat Advani along with Keshubhai and Shankar singh did and later Modi took over. Talk of raj there was Shekawat and Jaswant Singh. MP – Uma Bharathi, Scindia Family.The only place there was not a strong leader for BJP in the late 90s was WB, that is reason why BJP is not able to improve in Bengal.
The same revolution is happening in south, here people are now hearing about BJP as a national force and not as party of Hindi heartland, it high time BJP comes up with acceptable faces so that, it can become a formibale force in TN, Kerala and AP. I see a lot of hope for BJP in Telangana region, but in Kerala though new faces are coming there is lot of infighting. TN is one place where BJP is literally sleeping, it is time to produce some grass root support, instead of waiting for Rajini to enter politics and join BJP.
February 20, 2009 at 12:44 PM
Dear Raj,
combining all informations,
it is apparent either PRP aligns with BJP prepoll or not, it will hardly have any impact on BJP’s electoral performance.
As the stakes of BJP lies in Telangana, where has hardly any influence and will be of no use for BJP.
Outside, Telangana, the seats which matter for BJP are Vishakhapatnam & Narsapur (Hindupur possibility dampened due to strong candidate from another party). mIn these if BJP wins then only due to influence of its own candidates. PRP will hardly any role in it but it will claim its contribution post election.
BJP should definitely reach out to NTP and seal a deal by alloting 2 Lok sabha and 2 dozen Assembly seats to NTP in seat sharing. this give lend a marginal but decisive vote % to BJP in Telangana.(The region around Hyderabad RR dist.)
As in my Earlier analysis after MLC election result
(Hyderabad-Rangareddy-Mahaboobnagar Graduates Constituency: K.Nageswar of TDP-TRS-Left was re-elected defeating BJP candidate Ramachandra Rao by wafer thin margin of just 436 votes.)
Specially
Ranga Reddy district made of CHEVELLA & MALKAJGIRI LSseats.
As T Devender Goud belongs to RR dist. and he will contest from Medchala in RR dist. this bring additive votes to BJP in two seats of this dist. and may lead to win.
As in Hyderabad, dist they are traditionally strong, even without alliances 1999,96,98:
SECUNDERABAD winning in alternative elections (last time Cong won here, this time Md. Ahzaruddin may be contesting as Cong. candidate here will polarise Hindu nationalist votes to BJP as Azhar is seen as a traitor due to his involvement in infanous match-fixing case and see BJP win)
year) Winner Vote % Party Runner Up Vote % Party
2004 ) M. ANJAN K. YADAV 49.9 INC B. DATTATRAYA 42.84 BJP
1999 ) Bandaru Dattatraya 52.19 BJP N.Bhaskara Rao 42.13 INC
1998 ) Bandaru Dattatreya 49.02 BJP P.v.rajeswar Rao 28.24 INC
1996 ) Rajeshwar Rao P.V. 48.78 INC B. Dattatreya 23.92 BJP
1991 ) Bandaru Dattatraya 48.19 BJP T. M. Anjaiah (w) 32.05 INC
while in HYDERABAD, BJP was always runner up
year) Winner Vote % Party Runner Up Vote % Party
2004 ) Asaduddin Owaisi 38.39 AIMIM G.SUBASH CH. JI 28.25 BJP
1999 ) Salahuddin Owaisi 41.36 AIMIM Baddam Bal Reddy 35.74 BJP
1998 ) Salahuddin Owaisi 44.65 AIMIM Baddam Bal Reddy 38.07 BJP
1996 ) Salahuddin Owaisi 34.57 AIMIM M. Venkaiah Naidu 26.68 BJP
1991 ) Salahuddin Owaisi 46.18 MIM Baddam Bal Reddy 42.17 BJP
In all these instances AIMIM never got 50 % votes, while Hindu votes got divided bu Cong. & TDP candidates in rural areas(In 1999 & 2004 TDP supported BJP but in tose elections Cong got TDP rural votes).
This time Cong likely to support AIMIM and TDP-TRS-Left grand alliance likely to support Editor of Urdu daily Siasat, there is no other Hindu candidate to divide BJP votes and exclusion of rural areas in delimitation will see BJP candidate win here. Baddam Bal reddy is the best candidate, he always polled higher votes than any other BJP candidate.
another seat important is MAHBUBNAGAR, here BJP polled 21%, 17%, 27% votes in 1991,1996, 1998 even without alliance.
Summing in these three districts, out of 6 seats BJP has high chances in 5 seats leving one-Nagarkurnool(SC) arural area with high Dalit votes.
BJP should manage to win at least 4 of them.
In the remaining Telangana, they got good votes always in Karimnagar, Nalgonda, Adilabad, Medak. One or two seats should be won out of these.
Earlier I had suggested Sh. Narendra Modi should be brought for campaigning in Hyderabad, but now I suggest not to do it. His presence will rather unite the otherwise divided Muslim votes between AIMIM and Siasat editor supported by Grand Alliance. There is not much dander Hindu vote division because of absence of any other Hindu candidate from Congress or TDP or TRS.
So, in total Telangana I calculate 5-6 seats for BJP (inc. 1 of NTP) and a couple of seats outside Telangana in AP- Vishakhapatnam, Narsapur; Taking total no of BJP 6-7 + NTP 1 in AP.
In the remaining AP if PRP doesnot allies with BJP than BJP can field candidates in all seats and put full efforts to increase its vote share and damage Congress (as BJP is more likely to attract national party votes of Congress), it will have two benefits:
One, BJP will create its base, the process which was left out post 1998 after alliance with TDP, which give more strength and bargaining power to BJP in future. Vote % of BJP will attract PRP post election.
two, I am of strong opinion BJP will damage Congress more as it is a national party and get votes of people who like to vote for national parties only, it is not always caste equations only. It will also sway many Raj type voters (Raj admitted earlier he was Left lean but later shifted BJP side) from Left base in Grand Alliance. Thus only helping PRP to win subsequently which is bound to fall in BJP’s kitty post elections.
February 20, 2009 at 1:01 PM
while getting right chemistry from all of you if Dr. Subramanyam Swami is abig problem he shouild be dropped for going with Jayalalitha AIADMK-Congress alliance and damaging them.
Personally I also see him as highly unfaithfual troublesome and a demanding person creating problems again and again but I thought he may be a good campaigner. But as you all told he is more percieved as a Joker in TN and destroy the credibility of NDA, he sould be avoided as he will also irk Vaiko MDMK and sing different tune on Lankan issue.
The NDA in TN should be formed with
BJP, MDMK, DMDK, VCK/JDU
As LKADVANI.IN u told there many opposers of AIADMK in Congress but I do feel it is true but it will not stop Congress going to winning AIADMK side. People like PC, Vasan may even leave Cong to join DMK, PC has no political base, ha has even aligned with NDA in 2001 assembly elections.
So I strongly see AIADMK-Cong. alliance and
DMK-Left alliance and also PMK joining them in Snap polls for assembly.
February 20, 2009 at 1:47 PM
Irking PC will affect the congress party in the English press, this guy in the last five years has made sure that he is seen as a successor to MMS at least in the eyes of the English media and press. If a Jaya- Sonia deal happens then PC will be aggressively campaigning (atleast in the English Media) against congress, he may even go to the extent of exposing Congress follies in the last 5 years
Though i see AK Antony to be the next in line, i think PC will be given his own space by the congress for his politics. I agree with Vikas on PC trying to switch over to NDA.He tried to emulate Kumaramangalam.
All said and done, One thing is sure, no one has permanent friends and foes in politics. If Sonia can accept Rane in two months after dissent, there can be a possiblity of Jaya- Sonia patch up. Only time will answer!!!!
February 20, 2009 at 1:48 PM
Vikas,
Do answers my doubts on UP in the North India forum!!!
February 20, 2009 at 2:16 PM
Dear Vikas Ji Great Analysis.
In ’96 BJP’s Votebase Dipped low in AP for One Main Reason : Sri P V Narasimha Rao, The Telugu Bidda( Son of Telugu Soil) being The PM, and PV Being A Brahmin, Drifted All The Brahmin Votes and also some other OBC Votes frm BJP to congress.
I do Strongly Feel, BJP Should move Badam Balram Reddy from Chevella to Hyderabad.
He always Polled nearly 40% of Popular Vote.
In’94 Assembly Elections, He Defeated MIM Candidate frm Karwan Assembly Segment(A Highly Muslim Dominated Constituency in spite of the fact that BJP Contested Elections Alone!!!).
In 2004, TDP President asked his cadres to work for the defeat of BJP Candidates and that’s one of the main reasons for BJP’s lower vote percentage.
February 20, 2009 at 2:20 PM
Vikas Ji, in Nalgonda, TRS -TDP Grand Alliance has an edge over BJP.
That aside, Sri Narendra Modi Ji is Addressing A Meet tomorrow(on 21st Feb 2009) in Karimnagar. And lot of Ground Work is Being Done. At Least One Rally has to be Addressed by Modi Ji in Telangana to Enhuse The Cadres. He Pumps in Energy even if He isnt Aggressive.unlike Kalyan and Vinay Katiyar, ModiJi is NOT Just The Aggressive Face of Hindutva, He is Also Known for His Administrative Capabilities and Mass Management.
February 20, 2009 at 2:23 PM
Vikas Ji, here I would like to add, that in AP, Congress has become more of A State Party ratherthan A National Party.
until, Late Nineties, Congress didnt have A Powerful State Leader ever since Indira Gandhi shun away Dr. Neelam Sanjeev Reddy.
But, with an Italian at the helm of AICC and an Evangelical christian as AP CM, she has NOT Allowed any congress leader to voice dissidence and has given a free hand to yesupaada samuel reddy(ysr) in AP
February 20, 2009 at 2:30 PM
Vikas Ji, Congress-AIADMK Alliance is NOT Possible before 2009 Polls.
After May 209 General Elections Debacle, congress would withdraw support to DMK and snap polls would be called.
This time round, while we seriously dont know what PMK will do, there are indications that PMK may still remain with UPA stati ng their alliance is Only with Congress and NOT DMK and it is for congress to decide the partners.
This leaves, AIADMK-Left alliance in the dork.
BJP-DMDK-MDMK-VCK(including Dr. Krishnaswamy)/JD(U) is A Must and is The Only Viable Option for All The Parties.
February 20, 2009 at 2:48 PM
Vikas,
Is there any sense of dissidents in Congress. YSR seems to e the king and all others are loosing prominence. I would be happy,if sitting MLAs who do not get tickets and people with good mass base not getting tickets move to TDP or PRP or BJP.
Is there any chance of a person like N Jarandhan Reddy moving out of congress, because of being sidelined.
If congress is not able to control dissidents, its prospects would be affected as it happened to Raje in Rajasthan and even to Modi in 2004 elections.
February 20, 2009 at 2:50 PM
sorry the question is for Raj, i have been asking so many questions to Vikas, so i wrongly addressed him in this question also!!!
February 20, 2009 at 3:00 PM
In Telangana Region Where BJP Can Win are : Secunderabad, Malkajigiri(for Sure Even in The Worst Case), Hyderabad(This is The Most Favourable Situation for BJP in Hyderabad),KarimNagar(KCR’s decision Not to fight from here and Modi Ji Addressing A Rally here on 21st Feb 2009 is Likely to Boost The Winnability of The KarimNagar Parliamentary Seat),Mehbubnagar(This Time BJP has Fielded A Strong Candidate), Chevella. Other Seats, Where BJP has High Potential to Win : Adilabad and Mehbubabad(both Reservedfor ST).
Adilabad was TRS Citadel, but in last year bypoll, TRS lost to Congress Candidate.
Let, me explain Why this happened.
there were three key players in Adilabad(Then was contested as an unreserved constituency, since in 2004, this was unreserved)-TRS,Congress and TDP.
BJP Didnt contest stating, the outcome doesnt have any Importance in Parliament. The Real Reason behind BJP’s decision Not to contest the Telangana ByPolls last may was BJP which was hoping for an Alliance with TRS was disappointed as TRS, which initially favoured alliance with BJP decided to go alone eyeing the muslim vote.since, TDP too, snapped Ties with BJP in 2005,BJP Decided to teach a lesson to both TRS and TDP and BJP cadres voted for congress and also, by then, congress was still giving a faint hope to people of Telangana that,They are for A Seperate Statehood to Telangana.
so, all these helped congress win Adilabad seat last may.
However by Now, BJP has entered the fray as a Strong Contender and PRP would eat into traditional congress votes in Adilabad.TRS is planning to leave this seat to communists, which would spell doom for Grand Alliance.
Also, The Telangana Intellectual Forum is Rallying behind BJP and NTP, hence, BJP-NTP Alliance will also gain support frm Telangana Intellectuals Forum. Gaddar, The Moaist Balladear has asked people Not to Vote for Grand Alliance and Rallied with BJP(well, His sphere of Influence is small, but, Nevertheless it is significant to attract rural voteers in certain constituencies).
In Addition BJP has some Stakes in Warrangal(SC),Zahirabad and Nizamabad.
February 20, 2009 at 3:02 PM
Dear Arun, Though There is Dissidence, sonia is suppressing them by completely siding with ysr(the christian relation). Any Dissidence in AP Congress will be evident only After May 2009 Election Results are announced.
February 20, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Dear Raj
I had suggested for avoiding a Modi rally in & around Hyderabad but anywhere else in Telangana say Karimnagar is must needed for morale boosting. He is not only a Hindutva icon but a symbol development & financial integrity, which enthuse common men.
U r right his mere presence charge Hindutva without any arousal, similarly his mere presence unites Muslim-Christians. So he should not go public in Hyderabad which will unite otherwise divided Muslims.
February 20, 2009 at 3:03 PM
It’s unlikely that there would be any congress leader joining BJP before polls in AP.
However, more Kaapu Leaders from congress as well as TDP may join PRP
February 20, 2009 at 3:18 PM
And Vikas Ji, Though I had Left Leniant views in my Earlier Days on several Issues, even as a Teen, I was Pro-BJP.
I took Left Leniant stnds against VHP, Bajrang Dal and Co while Politically I always Favoured BJP.
I supported The Demolistion of Babri Mosque, Though I am NOT A Votary for Construction of Ram Temple, I would Strongly Oppose any move to reconstruct the mosque at the same site.
The Demolition of mosques at Ayodhya, Kashi and Mathura will demoralize the muslims and I support for the same reason.
Also, I am A Strong Anti-Reservationalist.
The Reason Why I was Attracted to BJP despite coming from Non RSS Background is That Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi led The Anti-Mandal Agitations
February 20, 2009 at 3:22 PM
Its good na, if people get sidelined they must be poached by BJP/ PRP.
Another bad news – Allu may contest from Nasarpur
February 20, 2009 at 3:26 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
I had responded in detail to your points about UP in North India forum plz. go through them
February 20, 2009 at 3:28 PM
i have, thanks. Please answer the question on Ayodya. Y is Vinay Katiyar contesting from Ahmednagar.
February 20, 2009 at 6:22 PM
Well, if Allu Aravind decides to contesat from Narsapur, it would backfire PRP for encouraging Family Politics and Not trusting anyone.
That would be A Grave Mistake by PRP if They decide to launch Allu Aravind from Narsapur.
Already, Youth Wing President is Chiru’s Brother.
PRP would Then be known as FRP, Family Rajyam Party or KRP, Kutumb(am) Rajyam Party
February 21, 2009 at 9:22 AM
TN: Sonia wants to build bridges with Jaya
http://www.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/20tn-cong-wants-an-alliance-with-aiadmk-in-tamil-nadu.htm
If this happens, it will put BJP in tight spot, as DMK might bring most of smaller parties other than DMDK into its fold to fight Jaya.
New arithmetic is seen every day.
February 21, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Dear AK, I dont think it would Materialize before 2009 May Polls.
Post Electoral Debacle both at the centre and Rout in the state, congress would pull out support to the minority DMK govt and would allin with Jaya along with PMK, leaving only left parties to be as allies for DMK
February 21, 2009 at 11:50 AM
I t seems, today it is this P Chidambaram who is interested in working out an Alliance with AIADMK.
If That is so, then AIADMK-Congress-PMK Alliance can Materialize.
Reason Why PC has made overtures to Jaya can be that, in SivaGanga, He cant win Without AIADMK’s support. BJP is more stronger than Congress in The Southern Districts of TN.
As far as G K Vasan is concerned, well, I would like to remind to You all that in 2001, Moopanar alligned with Jayalalithaa.
February 21, 2009 at 11:59 PM
Hi
I am really impressed by the analysis done by our friends in this website. Lets hope that BJP led alliance come back to power with thumping majority.
February 22, 2009 at 10:25 AM
Hi,
Modi’s speech in Karimnagar was very impressive. I liked two point very much.
1. To give gas to Telangana
2. To call AP youth for jobs in Gujrat.
That i why Modi should have Vikas yatra in AP,TN,WB,Kerala. It will give
a major advantage to BJP. In my opinion Modi is developement oriented
CM. He has given result (not by words, by giving output)
February 22, 2009 at 10:43 AM
There is Somthing in This Man!!!
I mean, Two Meetings by Advaniji could Not fill in such Enthusiasm. I admit, Advani Ji’s speech at Vijayawada was LackLusture and The Vijaywada meeting was Not successful though The Hyderabad Meeting was attended by 5 lakh people.
But, despite, the success at Hyd, BJP Couldnt maintain momentum.
But, This Man, ModiJi has Enthused The Leaders and Cadre of BJP in Telangana.
Jai Modi Ji Ki
February 22, 2009 at 10:44 AM
BJP started to Believe now in Telangana.
February 22, 2009 at 10:49 AM
I Wish He Raked up The Ram Sethu Issue too.
Even without that, The Cadre is Filled with Energy, BJP has to maintain this momentum and build on it further as The Polls near.
His Whole speech had only on Development!!The Statistics He gave have silenced everyone.
February 22, 2009 at 11:48 AM
Also, Nava Telangana Party is Keen on Having An Alliance with BJP and have put on hold The Merger or even an Alliance with Praja Rajyam. NTP Chief Deveder Goud has accused, PRP Gen Sec, Dr. P Mithra for PRP’s Stand of Not having any Truck with BJP. Another Leader in PRP, who is against having any understanding with BJP is kathi padma rao, a dalit leader from coastal Andhra(probably a converted christian). if You Guys remember, chiru landed in controversy by attending this guy’s son’s wedding as it was an intercaste marriage unacceptable to the bride’s Family.The controversy arouse because, chiru opposed his daughter’s wedding for she married a different caste guy but supported this wedding by attending it.
February 22, 2009 at 12:12 PM
Hi Raj,
Goud has good future, if he has alliance with BJP. BJP has never misbehaved with own alliance.Alliance partner has misbehaved with BJP.
I told many times BJP should not have any alliance with PRP,TDP,TRS.
BJP should give 3 seats to Goud in Telangana. 14 seats BJP should fight
alonge. I am very sure this alliance will get 10 seats. And 40 to 70 assembly seats. That way BJP may create strong base in Telangana.
Are you agree Raj. Please put your views.
February 22, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Hi Raj,
After election, TDP,TRS and PDP will touch Advani’s feet and they will have request to Advani to accecpt their support.
February 22, 2009 at 12:33 PM
Hi Raj,
For AP
=====
1. For AP, BJP should announce state president.
2. Naidu should fight election from Nellore.
3. BJP should announce own AP CM(Kappu cast). Deputy cm from other
cast. Home minister (any other cast).
4. It may difficult for PRP to form gov without help of BJP.
5. That way BJP may create won base in AP.
6. In next election BJP will outperform.
7. BJP should have alliance in AP atleast 50% seats in assembly and parliament. Otherwise it should go alone.
8. BJP will get vote, because of other pole in politics( one is congress)
no becasue of Hindutva.
February 22, 2009 at 12:36 PM
Hi,
If Goud comes with BJP, lot of other leaders( from TDP,TRS and congress) will also join BJP.
February 22, 2009 at 12:44 PM
Hi Raj,
IF BJP announce own CM in AP and Telangana. It would not be insult,
but it will reflect right direction( BJP is other pole of politics).
Do you remember, When Atalji became PM. It was not possible for BJP to
show majority in Parliament. Atalji resigned after 13 days. That time Congress told coaliation is not possible, only single party can form gov.
It was not at all a insult of Atalji. That was the first time people of India was able to know who is BJP and Atalji.
February 22, 2009 at 12:59 PM
well, if Venkaiah Naidu has to contest, He should contest Assembly Polls and Not Lok Sbha Polls. BJP should give Strong Leaders Like Shanta Reddy Tickets in Assembly. I am Impressed after listening to her Discussion on Problems being faced by People in Rayalseema region in a TV Debate on TV9.
BJP Should Create Base in Urban Sections with Potential Polairizability in The Rest of AP.
There are some 15-20 such Assembly segments and There, BJP should concentrate and try to Win as many assembly seats as possible.
NO, There is NO Towering Kaapu caste leader in AP besides Chiru. BJP Shouldnt make such a foolish move.
BJP has demanded 50,000 Crore Package for Rayalaseema(I am From This Region and This is The Most Backward Region with Accute Water Shortage and faces severe Law and Order Problem). BJP Should Announce This in Rayalseema Vijay Sankalp Yatra and also place it in AP BJP Manifesto.
Gaurantee Autonomy to Rayalaseema Division in AP(Post Creation of Telangana), because Statehood for Rayalseema is unsastainable. Rayalseema would become dry is A Separate Rayalseema is formed.Rayalaseema(Here is Where, The World Famous Sri Balaji Temple on Tirumala Hills is) has to depend on Coastal Andhra for Drinking water.
Also Most Important: Mock chiru and Balakrishna(NTR’s Son and TDP’s Star Campaigner) for fooling people with Filmy Dialogues and Gestures. Provoke The People o Ponder on where were these two actors until last year who Never bothered about People’s issues but are today seeking votes merely on film charisma
February 22, 2009 at 1:04 PM
Hi Raj
What do you have to say of the opinion poll conducted by Rajdeep and his IBN team they say BJP led nda willget only 165-185 while upa might get 215-235. Can we rely on this poll.
February 22, 2009 at 1:05 PM
Well, Goud is Planning to Merge or atleast fight Elections on BJP’s Symbol for the coming polls.
Also He isnt demanding A Lion’s Share. He seeks only A Handful of Parliamentary and Assembly seats. Therefore, Thatz Not a Problem. As He isnt applying for A Symbol, He has NO Other go but to fight on BJP’s Symbol.That makes Him and His followers Technically BJP Candidates and They have NO Other go but to Toe The Party Line.
Also, Devender Goud has pro-Hindu Leanings and None of His party Organizational Heads or leftists or anti-Hindu. The Whole of NTP is in favour of Alliance with BJP.
Reason : Most of Them are OBCs with some few forward caste leaders like Peddi Reddy. OBCs form the cadre of Hindutva Movement and most of The Aggressive Hindutva Leaders too are from OBC community. Hence, Another section are The Tribals and Telangana has considerable Tribal Population. Hence Telangana has a High Potential for Hindutva Movement. Ofcourse, The Huge muslim population is an added advantage for BJP
February 22, 2009 at 1:07 PM
Many leaders from TDP and TRS may no follow joining BJP before elections. But, Devender Goud’s alligning with BJP(which is 100% Inevitable) will strenghten BJP in Telangana and will keep the momentum going and increase the pace as polls near for Goud can tell the truth about chandra babu naidu’s latest pro-telangana stunt.
February 22, 2009 at 1:12 PM
Dear Adi, in Karnataka Elections, congress news network-italian broadcasters news has said congress would get 120-140sats while BJP would get only 50.
We all Know what Happened.
stating Assam, Rajasthan, J&K(Complete Sweep including Jammu Region and Ladhak),Arunachal Pradesh, Maharasthra,Delhi and AP as Congress sweep, they are simply fooling people and is a cunning plan by sonia maino.
But, least they know, that they are actually Helping BJP. The Muslim VOTE wont be Tactically polarized now as muslims and christians today feel BJP has NO Chance of returning t Power and No tactical polling is warranted. while, The Hindu Vote is getting Galvanized towards BJP.
I Request You all to Just laugh at their Anti-Scientific Biased opininated polls.
February 22, 2009 at 1:40 PM
Raj
Are you sure that NTP would ditch PRP and allign with the BJP and if so why would they do that. Also TOI reported that Narendra Modi speech was not very well received. I know you might have gone there so what was the response . The people of Telangana are fluent in Hindi so I expect it to have been a success. How many people were there , Iam from Hyderabad and would like to know can the BJP ever win Hyderabad. and why the hell does Assam not vote for BJP and AGP. Imean why congress when s many bangladeshis are coming in ..Also what do you do . are you a psephologist. and how good is your strike rate in predicting elections. how many seats bjp will win on its own in AP and India. I feel TDP will break up after 2009 polls, what say, also BJP should never allign with TDP or PRP after the sort of statements they are making. I understand that muslims are against BJP but why do you think chrostians are against BJP. and does it even matter as christians should hardly matter in india.
February 22, 2009 at 1:52 PM
Yes.
NTP Knows Only A National Party can carve Out Telangana.
Devender Goud has seriously accused Praja Rajyam Gen Sec, Dr. P Mithra(a communist) from Preventing PRP join Hands with BJP.
TOI, is again a Communist paper.
And in Telangana Everyone Follows Hindi. No I am in Taiwan but as I see The Crowd in Video and the crowd that attended was between 3-4 lakhs.
Dear Adi DONT Get disheartened by IBN.
IBN Has Gone Wrong in Every Opinion Polls they have conducted. If any award has to be given for unprofessional Psephology, it should be given to rajdeep-sardesai and yogender yadav
February 22, 2009 at 2:35 PM
I appeal to You All here, dont get disheartened by Press and Media reports which are selectively Biased against BJP.
It’s a Planned move by them to give an edge to congressnand dissuade The Urban Youth from Casting Vote.
February 22, 2009 at 2:37 PM
Christians are against BJP Because BJP opposes Fradulent ways these Ecangelists employ to decieve and lure people and also the abusals they hurl at Hindduism and Indian Culture.
Dont be fooled by the stats.
The Actual percentage of Christians in India is as high as 8% and particularly high in Kerala, TN and Coastal AP
February 22, 2009 at 2:46 PM
Hi Raj,
I feel, if Goud joins BJP , in that case BJP should try to bring some leaders from TRS,TDP and PRP,Congress also. If BJP is able to get 3-5 strong leaders(BJP may give 1 or 2 RajyaSabha Seat also) from these party for (17-8) seats of Telangana. In 8 seats BJP is very strong. No need of any leader for these seat. In that case BJP
may have clean sweep in Telangana.
Are you agree. Please give your comment.
February 22, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Dear Ritesh, BJP shouldnt let all aaya Ram’s and gaya Ram’s.
Instead Devlop It’s Own Leaders. Send some Key Leaders to Assembly.
Goud is an Exception as He is joining with Entire Team, Memers frm other parties if Increasingly join BJP, then it would have negative effect on BJP as it had in 2004.
The High Media coverage in Favour of BJP will actually leed to tactical polling in order to defeat BJP. That should be Avoided at any cost.
The Present situation is Ripe for BJP’s growth in Telangana.
Everything is going well at the moment, After Modi Ji’s Public Meeting at KarimNagar.
The Only Caution for BJP is : BJP has to keep The Momentum Going through Mass Contact Programmes and regular Sabhas at constituency level and door to door campaign.
February 22, 2009 at 3:23 PM
Hi,
I am not saying take all leaders, take only very strong leaders. The seat in
which BJP is very-2 weak. Give seat to dissident. See pros and cons
also. If BJP takes too much dissident leadera, it will be big problem for
BJP.
There are lot advantages.
1.It will add strength in overall in BJP.
2.That person can win that particular seat in which BJP has 0% chance.
3.It will make own party weak.
4.It will create strong base for BJP.
5.If that leader create problem for BJP, BJP can through them out. And
there will no organiztional loss to BJP. Use and throw policy.
6.There will be no need for BJP to get support from JAYA,MAMTA,TDP.
I wrote, take 3-5 strong dissident leaders.
February 22, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Hi,
If Congress follows these policy whatever i am saying, It will be very dangerous for Congress. Congress will loose own original leaders. For BJP it is not dangerous. If BJP is strong in whole Telangana, then these policies will be dangerous for BJP also.
February 22, 2009 at 3:31 PM
Hi Raj,
IF any strong leader of Congress from Karimnagar joins BJP. Do not give anything to that leader. He has to serve BJP first. Because in Karimnagar,BJP is already strong. These tehniques are only for those seats in which BJP is zero.
February 22, 2009 at 3:33 PM
Dear Ritesh, Please Dont be Naive.
BJP should concentrate only in The Following Lok Sabha Constiutencies in Telangana :
Secunderabad, Malkajigiri,Hyderabad,Chevella, Mehbubnagar,KarimNagar,Zahirabad, Nizamabad, Mehbubabad,Adilabad,Warrangal and some Attention in Nalgonda and Medhak.
In Khammam, Pedapally,Nagarkarul and Bhuvanagiri(Bhongiri), BJP has leser chance.
I am ruling out Bhuvanagiri since, “Lady Amitabh” Vijayashanti is likely to contest from here as A TRS Candidate.
However, she being A Former BJP Mahila Morcha Vice President, if she rejoins BJP, then BJP’s chances would be even higher.
She still has a soft corner to BJP
February 22, 2009 at 3:34 PM
There is NO Possibility of any Strong Congress/TRS/TDP Leader joining BJP in AP right now.
February 22, 2009 at 4:30 PM
Dear Forum Colleague,
Don’t get bogged , worried and disheartened by the CNN(CONGRESS NTEWORK NEWS) .Just go down the memory lane you will find the reality as under :
During 2004 pre poll surveys all pollster (NDTV. Star, Zee , Aajtak etc) predicted a NDA majority with 280 to 315 seats and as the election inching closer they start changes their gear and even till the results were announced they were predicted NDA far ahead of UPA , u know it better what happen.
Don’t get worried as they have been paid by Congress to do so and even they know what reality is.
Just have a look what were predicted and what happened as under :
Exit Polls for 14th Lok Sabha Election 2004
Media Group NDA Cong+ Others
Sahara Samay 263-278 92-102 171-181
Star News 263-275 174-186 86-98
Aaj Tak 248 189 105
Zee News 249 117 176
NDTV-IE 230-250 190-205 100-130
Actual u all knows and can also see from ECI sites.
It’s in fact a very positive, encouraging and auspicious sign for the NDA on positive tone.
All BJP is need to do is just be focused on grass root reality of each states and constituencies and strategies accordingly and good thing is that BJP is till date has maintained a composed and different approach from “ Feel Good and India Shining Campaign” which proved to be a fiasco and disaster as known to all.
I am giving you the details of the finding of one TV channel which according to me more robust, authentic and based on the principles SAMPLING than this stupid as done by CNN by two crooked and partisan gentle man Sri Sri Rajdeep Sardesai and Stupid and Poor Psephologist Sri Yoegendra Yadav whose track record itself describe the Credibility quotient when they will have look as above and hereunder :
Its is the channel which has projected Congress come back in Gujarat and Karnataka.
As here under is their past misdeed, concocted and cocktailed story of opinion poll and I really feel sorry for them as end the of day who is getting defeated is the fourth Pillar of Democracy they have lost their relevance and became private channel of Congress and so called Pseudo secular and anti national Parties .
The CNN-IBN-CSDS exit poll gave BJP 92 to 100 seats with Congress notching somewhere between 77 and 85. Others were given three to seven seats.
What happened is known to all and is history.
Now come to their recent per poll prediction about KARNATAKA assembly election where these stupid bunch of CNN Cyanide predicted as under
Exclusive CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald opinion poll conducted by CSDS has suggested.
The poll conducted in the state during April reports the current mood of the electorate indicates Congress winning 114 seats in the 224-seat Assembly, giving the party a slender, but clear majority. This means a gain of 49 seats for the Congress over the last elections held in 2004.
The poll also suggests losses for the BJP, which is projected to win 60 seats, a decline of 19 seats over the last elections. The situation for Janata Dal (S) doesn’t seem any better with the party projected to win 37 seats, a decline of 21 seats.
What happened is known and is the Golden history for BJP and they should never loose this gateway to South and only thereafter true dream of true nationalist part will be a reality.
Just forget these stupid news channel and watch the latest poll done by Total TV on 16 MP constituencies across the state of NCT of Delhi,Haryana, UP, Rajasthan , MP ,Bihar and Gujarat and they covered 121 MLA constituencies and got polled by by 24200 peope and 200 from each MLA constituency falling in these MP constituencies across the state and their finding is summarized as under :
Delhi is going Congress way right now but could change based on selection of candidates by BJP as we all know they lost due to poor selection of candidates, complacency and poor and negative campaign against the Mrs. Sheila Dixit .
Haryana it is 50:50 between NDA & UPA then here is loss of 4-5 seats for the congress,
Punjab is the toughest state for the NDA to retain their last performance and NDA could loose some seats here as per them NDA & UPA is 50:50 right now with one seats poll going to BJP and another one to congress.
MP is the in all probability will go to BJP as 2004 and would be able to win 25 seats here.
Rajsthan , here BJP has lost ground amongst the both Meena and Gurjjar community due to last reservation agitation and would be 50:50 between the congress and BJP as the results shows gain for BJP lok sabha election becoz, change of people preference for general election and also history reminds us that BJP has not done worst in this state and it lost assembly election becoz. of infighting and congress has not got majority over their.
Bihar is going to NDA way as the surveys results of Gopalganj MP constituency the native place of RJD supreme , his wife birth place being the leader of opposition and current MP being his brother in law show going NDA ways decisively as UPA here as Mood of India poll results is won by NDA( JDU+BJP) by almost double margin which was the stronghold of RJD and if we go by trend , then its is biggest disaster for UPA and as per my own assessment and it will go NDA ways just reversal of 2004 for NDA even better than their 1999 performance when they have won 33 seats that they can repeat even without Rambilash .
UP is tough predict right now and NDA would definitely improve its 2004 performance of 10 seats.
However to achieve that NDA will have to focus more on positive campaigning , mobiles the grass root workers and highlight the NDA ruled state and NDA government performance of the good governance , interest control, price control , infrastructure project , sustainable rural development program and failure of centrally sponsored scheme in all UPA states and vision for future India and Glorious India and complete full stop to divisive and core issues unless there is consensus on it .
Highlight the misdeeds of UPA on economics front like:
• Fiscal deficit mismanagement ;
• Mess up of economics ;
• Loss of jobs due to wrong policies without any social security scheme for the private sectors as the cite the example of global recession as the cause for it ;
• Failure of national security and rural sustainable development etc.
All my pro right colleagues , its my humble request that just no divisive policy and our country need no more cast and religious violence and you might have seen its neither good for HINDU nor MUSLIM nor CHRISTIAN and anyone .
At the end of the day it’s the humanity that is killed and defeated and ultimate suffers are the poor and defenseless people.
We should believe in as we all are one Indian first then our religion and its our private practices and should not never meddle in the policy which matter more for the humanity.
All my dear colleague just stop the all these words which divide us based on the religious and cast line and you should not forget that we all Indian having common for fathers and ancestors .
Create an environment and let them realize that we all are Indian and have just lost their path under the coercion and influence and becoz of the circumstances beyond their control.
I am hard core HINDU and disciplined and firm believer in our rich heritage and culture and philosophy of Vedanta and GITA the eternal source of inspiration for all human being.
February 23, 2009 at 12:03 AM
Great Analysis Anil and Excellent!!
Particularly, In AP Giving PRP only 7% ios Ludiculous while congress was given 45%
NO Respect can be Given to ibn.
February 23, 2009 at 10:37 AM
Hi ,
How many seats( AP and Telangana) in which BJP may get more than 20% votes.
BJP should try to bring Vijayashant.
February 23, 2009 at 11:10 AM
Three important points the analysts did not touch upon in the survey where:
1) Vote transferability: For instance BJP will be able to transfer its vote share to the JD (U) in Bihar, but the RJD will not be able to transfer its entire vote to LJP. INLD and BJP can mutually transfer their vote shares in Harayana.
2) Spread of Vote share: Sharad Pawar will win Baramathi with a margin of 2 lakth votes but NDA will win 10 seats with a margin fo 30,000 votes. The Vote of NDA is concentrated and not spread like the UPA, the classic example is Karnataka, the BJP here will do extremely well in the state but will turn a cropper in the old mysore region.
3) Candidate: The NDA has a history of put better candidates than the UPA. Think of a Tipnis / Kiran Bedi fighting from Delhi, they will win despite the voters having an affiliation to Sheila Dixit.
February 23, 2009 at 11:13 AM
Raj,
Ennadu seems to have given good publicity to Modi’s Karim Nagar visit. I did read the article it was nice.
Secondly, the Lok satta Jai Prakash Narayan seems to help the congress, he is cutting into BJP middle class vote.
I have a doubt in this guy, he says he claen but where does he get money to put advts in TV9, TV5 and Etv 2. This guy recently attented the Shakshi TV inauguration fuction. I feel there is something fishy here.
Ur thoughts on the same.
February 23, 2009 at 11:19 AM
The biggest comedy in the IBN survey was in the seat calculation they have given 12 seats to congress in Gujarat. The blogger in their site has tried hard to sell this assessment as true. I cannot resist laughing at the same.
February 23, 2009 at 11:23 AM
Hi Raj,
How many seats( AP and Telangana) in which BJP may get more than 20% votes.
BJP should try to bring Vijayashant.If BJP is able to win 10 seats ,then there will be no future of TDP,TRS,PRP,Left in Telangana.
There will be fight between BJP and Congress.
February 23, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Ritesh,
this a article i found in lkadvani.in
let us discuss Vijayawada and Visakhapatnam constituencies of Andhra and why BJP should seriously try these constituencies.
The following maps are helpful in analyzing the seriousness of these constituencies for BJP. It is Advantage BJP in these constituencies inspite of bad to worse past performance.
New
http://ceoandhra.nic.in/gis/AP_Proposed.jpg
Old
http://ceoandhra.nic.in/gis/existingAP.jpg
Here is my take and these is based on my knowledge for 1990s. Things might have changes but roots will not change.
Vijayawada::
After the delimitation, most of the rural areas of this constituency are merged with Eluru and Machilipatnam. What this means is it is now a pure and simple urban area. This reduces the number of Kammas (traditionally TDP) and Kapus (now PRP) from this constituency. The new breakdown ( based on my 1990 figures) will be:
20% Brahmin ( traditionally Vijayawada East assembly segment)
25% vysyas/komati and 2% Muslim ( traditionally Vijayawada west assembly segment)
25% Kammas ( from Patmata/Autonagar areas on the east side and upto Gollapudi/VTPS area on the west side)
Rest will be SC and other castes.
If BJP makes a strong pitch by giving the seat to a very strong Brahmin candidate or Vysya candidate this seat is up for grabs. Kota Sreenivasa Rao ( a brahmin actor) won Vijayawada (east) on BJP ticket couple of elections ago. It is important to get RSS into picture and grab the Brahmins from Congress hold. Brahmin+Vysyas will make this a winnable seat. Very important thing this seat is not winnable for TDP as number of kammas from this seat got reduced. Congress (Lagadapati Rajagopal) has unofficially spent 100 crores last time.
Important thing is find a suitable candidate and should not bother to grab some one from Congress if he is a rich Vysya. Money is factor and it is not with Brahmins and Vysyas as compared to Kammas. But BJP should find ways to mitigate. This is seat that if BJP sweats out seriously it can win.
Visakhapatnam::
This is more serious seat than Vijayawada. Try contacting Sirivennala Seetarama Sastry. He is a famous song write for Telugu movies and a staunch RSS person.
If you see the new delimited constituency the rural areas are now gone to Vijayanagaram and Anakapally. The tribal areas went to Araku. What is interesting now for Vizag seat is the Brahmins have now a say in this constituency. I believe they form about 25% of the electorate and they are very BJP oriented as opposed to the ones in Vijayawada. RSS and ABVP are strong in Vizag. There is considerable North India and other states population. If concentrated with good spirit this is a definite win for BJP.
February 23, 2009 at 12:13 PM
I dunno y there is moderation for my comments,
Chakresh can you expalin???
February 23, 2009 at 12:18 PM
Ritesh,
read this link
http://www.lkadvani.in/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=2383&p=0
February 23, 2009 at 1:17 PM
umn..
Devender Goud is flip flopping.
After accusing PRP for Not alligning with BJP, he is now planning to merge with PRP the very next day.
It seems, Devender Goud has decided to lose elections by planning to contest Malkajigiri Lok Sabha Seat against Nallu Indra Sena Reddy of BJP.
February 23, 2009 at 1:24 PM
Dear Ritesh, to You Question in where BJP can win over 20% of Popular Vote :
In Telangana Region : Secunderabad, Malkajigiri, Hyderabad, Chevella, KarimNagar,Mehbubnagar for Sure(in All These Constituencies BJP Would Poll over 25% of Popular Vote, with anywhere between 35-40% in The First Three Constituencies)
In Adilabad,Warrangal, Zaheerabad, Mehbubabad, Nizamabad BJP will have it’s impact.
Besides, Telangana BJP in Visakhapatnam and Narsapur, BJP would Poll about 30-35% of Votes(can be higher in Visakhapatnam) and that’s enough to Win in a four cornered contest.
In Hindupur, due to the possibility of NTR’s Son Balakrishna entering the fray, BJP would find it hard this time. Also, BJP is planning to change their Lok Sabha Candidate from Hindupur(which would adversely affect BJP there) and is seriously considering to field Him against Chiru in Tirupati.Though Everyone Knows, Chiru would Win comfortably in Tirupati, None including BJP want to give awayy without offering a fight or putting a Brave face.
February 23, 2009 at 1:25 PM
No, Vijayashanti would remain with TRS because, He has promised to pay her 5 lakhs per day till elections.
February 23, 2009 at 1:27 PM
Lok Satta would certainly cut into BJP’s votes in Assembly Elections but NOT in Lok Sabha.
The Urban Middle Class Voter is Intelligent.
February 23, 2009 at 1:28 PM
anh? what Happened to LKADVANI.IN’s recent posts, till a minute back I was able to read.
what happened all of a sudden?
February 23, 2009 at 1:29 PM
Chiru is planning not to contest from Tirupathi, he will contest from west Godavari and Chitoor in rayalseema, this is according to Allu Aravind
February 23, 2009 at 1:30 PM
Raj,
read the link below
http://www.lkadvani.in/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=2383&p=0
February 23, 2009 at 1:32 PM
And Dear Arun, Yes, ETV is Pro BJP at National Level.
also, can You please give me the link to Eenaadu Article.
Is The Article in English?
I cant read Telugu.
I can read only Hindi and English
February 23, 2009 at 1:34 PM
I read it in Telugu in yesterday’s paper. he has given good coverage both in page 1 & 2.
Do read my analysis of the IBN survey in the north india battleground.
Things are very much in favour of NDA, even in the survey which IBN is hiding!!!
February 23, 2009 at 1:39 PM
Dear Arun, unfortunately I cant Read Telugu.
And I am really Happy, That BJP has High Chances in Vijayawada.
Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada, Narsapur, if These Three BJP Wins , it will be very good for BJP and BJP has High Potgential of winning all these three constituencies.
Also, BJP should field, strong winnable candidates in assembly segments too frm these areas.
February 23, 2009 at 1:46 PM
Dear Arun, c an You please, give excepts from What Eenaadu article has stated about Modi Ji’s Karim Nagar Visit.
February 23, 2009 at 1:49 PM
He has spoken about
1) Telangana in 100 days
2) If BJP wins in AP, he would give gas from Gujarat
3) He has promised jobs of young telugu people in Guj
4) he has lamented YSR for the satyam saga
February 23, 2009 at 1:50 PM
Raj,
ur comments on Jai Prakash Narayan, i did this guy helping INC, i have written the reasons in the above post.
February 23, 2009 at 2:57 PM
Dear Arun, in Lok Sabha Elections, Lok Satta of JP will come a cropper and the presence of lok satta would have almost NO implication on BJP in Parliamentary Constituencies.
However, in Assembly Constituencies, some of The BJP Votes would inevitable go to Lok Satta. it is for this reason, that I am asserting BJP should also field Strong Candidates for Assembly as well
February 23, 2009 at 3:01 PM
JP of Lok Satta has praised Sakshi TV, NO Urban Middle Class Voter would appreciate the same.
As per the information I have, it seems Lok Satta would in All Probability lose Deposit from All constituencies(even in Assembly Elections) except from where JP would contest.
February 23, 2009 at 3:06 PM
This guy can never be a winner but definitely can be spoiler. My worry is that he may spoil some of the winning chances of BJP. Espically in Urban centres like Vizag.
February 23, 2009 at 3:12 PM
Raj,
Y no political party is showing the true color of YSR. He is showing in his ads like Hindu gods showering blessing on him, ladies keeping KumKum in his forehead, but this guy and his son go destructing temples in AP. Y is no party exposing the same??
February 23, 2009 at 7:17 PM
He CANT Spoil BJP’s chances in Lok Sabha.
Can You understand That.
NO One will vote for Him in Urban Centres in Lok Sabha Polls.
Please understand what I am Saying.
February 23, 2009 at 7:19 PM
Lok Satta’s JP can only split BJP votes in Assembly Segments.
But, NOT in Lok Sabha Polls.
For there will be Cross voting.
Furhter, The urban middle class Doesnt Vote Blindly.
Am I able to Reach to You.
I think, you are giving importance to a Damp Squid.
He cant even be a spoiler.
the only people who listen to him are those siting in AC Auditoriums and visit for seminars.
None else.
February 23, 2009 at 8:41 PM
Hi Raj,
I am 100% agree with you.
February 23, 2009 at 8:44 PM
Dear Arun, Never be of the illussion that lok satta could spoil BJP’s Chances in Lok Sabha Polls. He is Not even a Spoiler and therefore cant even be called a Joker. he and his party are full of bafoons.
Initially people said Kammas would rally behind him as JP is a kamma.
Yes, in Musheerabad, Dr. K. Lakshman of BJP lost marginally because of lok satta, but that was an isolated assembly election with NO Implications.
Thi time around, JP cant spoil BJP’s chances.Urban Middle Class have come to know through that one result, that his presence will Only Benefit congress and Spoil BJP’s chances.
Hence, NO use voting for Lok Satta
February 24, 2009 at 1:52 PM
Raj,
please read the link below.
http://www.andhrarajakeeyam.com/2009/02/left-causes-revolt-in-trs/
is it possible to woo these leaders to BJP!!!
February 24, 2009 at 2:46 PM
Dear Arun, I regularly follow AndhraRajakeeyam.com
But, A Word of Caution, Wooing Them to BJP can prove Counter Productive as These Leaders who do not have contact with BJP Cadres and also The Masses would demand a Lion’s Share and would Spoil BJP’s Prospects.
They would in Most probablility join Praja Rajyam.
Here is The Best Chances for BJP.
since PRP is a regional Party with NO Alliance at National Level, BJP which would poll higher as People of Telangana know that They can achieve The state if and Only if There is A National Party willing to Pass The Bill in Parliament, with communists Dead Against Telangana, BJP is likely to gain in Parliamentary elections, particularly from where commies stand.
TRS would face internal rebellion and All These would add to BJP’s Advantage in Telangana
February 24, 2009 at 3:34 PM
TRS is unable to convince people on Why it Joined Grand Alliance which consists of Strong Anti-Telangana Forces such as CPM (And even Naidu as CBN Cannot be Trusted)
Telangana Rashtra Samithi is finding it tough to convince the people that it was fully justified in joining the Maha Kootami.
At a pre-election debate on TV9, TRS leaders G Vijayarama Rao and B Vinod Kumar could not face questions from the Congress and the BJP leaders on why the TRS joined the Maha Kootami. Participating in the debate, Vinod Kumar said all the parties, except the Congress, had directly or indirectly supported the Telangana State formation by giving their letters to Pranab Mukherjee Committee. The BJP went a step ahead and its Prime Ministerial candidate L K Advani said if NDA comes to power, it would deliver Telangana State within 100 days, he reminded.
Congress leader Konda Surekha, then, raised a pertinent issue: “The TRS believes that only national parties can deliver Telangana. Okay, the Congress did not give Telangana as promised in 2004. And now, BJP says it will give Telangana within 100 days. Why can’t TRS join the NDA? Why did it choose Maha Kootami, which has CPI-M which is anti Telangana and TD, which opposed Telangana till recently?”
The TRS leaders had no answer. They had to admit that their first priority was to pull down YSR government, which had obstructed Telangana in the last five years.
Advantage BJP All The Way in Telangana Region of AP
February 24, 2009 at 6:28 PM
Hi,
1.BJP should fight on 75% to 100% seats in each and every state.
2.BJP should get min 20% votes in each and every state.
2. 0% to 25% should be for alliance.
4. If any fighting take place with alliacnes then it will be major loss to alliances.
February 24, 2009 at 7:01 PM
Dear Ritesh, in States like Bihar, Orissa, Maharashtra, it’s Not Applicable.
and Also, in TN.
February 25, 2009 at 7:50 AM
Here is Modi ji in Kareem Nagar talking numbers , facts,
Numbers never lie…
February 25, 2009 at 1:28 PM
I have seen that video AK and it’s Great!!!
I Wonder Why He didnt take up Sri Ram Sethu Issue though.
In Telangana, Sri Ram is Highly Worshipped and Bhadrachalam is in Telangana Region where Sri Ram Navmi is The Biggest Festival. Any Anti-Ram Barbs will No be Forgiven in This Region.
February 25, 2009 at 2:54 PM
Dear Arun
==========
In politics base more important than winning seat.
1.BJP is ideological party. But to put ideology, enough power is needed.
BJP has to achieve enough power. How can it be achieved, it is major question.
2.The good point with BJP, It is other pole of Indian politics.
3.BJP will have to get 25% to 50% seats in each and every states.
4. BJP has not achieved in AP.TN,Kerala,WB.
There are two reason behind it.
(1) To have alliance less than 25% seats(If it is more than 50%, no problem)
(2) BJP did not put sufficient efforts.
5. First and foremost is to reduce alliances in four states and put more efforts.
6. I am 100% sure, in 2-3 loksabha election, BJP will get more than 25% to 50% seats in
four states.
7.In the mean time do not break alliance with anyone.
8.Once BJP become strong in these four states then try to reduce allinaces in other states.
9.But what about this election, no need to worry, congress can not form gov.TDP,TRS,TMC,AIADMK will
support BJP after election.
February 25, 2009 at 3:04 PM
Ritesh,
Do u have any particular opinion/ suggestion to reach the top brass of BJP, do write to me. As i have written in the west India post, i am meeting a senior BJP leader this weekend.
February 25, 2009 at 4:07 PM
At 4 : 00 hours now Sagarika is chatting on elections on ibnlive.com . let us all post our questions and expose their communal plank.
February 25, 2009 at 4:10 PM
http://features.ibnlive.in.com/chat/sagarika-ghose/do-caste-and-community-matter-less-in-indian-elections-now/245.html
This is the link. lets post questions left right and center and screw that channel
come on all show that the educated youth in this country love BJP
February 25, 2009 at 4:19 PM
Hey,
I am not able to reach the link
February 25, 2009 at 4:59 PM
NOBODY CAN BEAT YSR IN AP…THIS IS FACT ALSO RECENT PREPOLL SURVEYS(CNN-IBN SURVEY) SAID THAT YSR-CONGRESS IS VERY STRONG IN AP
ON 2009 ELECTIONS:
CONGRESS-45% VOTES
MHAKUTAMI(TDP+TRS+CPM+CPI)-30% ONLY
MEGA KUTAMI(PRP+NTTP)-9% ONLY
OTHERS(BJP etc)-7% ONLY
SO NOBODY CAN BEAT YSR
February 25, 2009 at 5:06 PM
Ashok,
But u should also admit to the fact that UPA cannot win 36/42 seats as it did last time!!!
February 25, 2009 at 5:08 PM
Dear ADI040,
it was a problem with CNN IBN, they are re-organising the chat tomo at 12!!!
I think she would have been bombaed with lot of unexpected questions and hence she wants a break!!!
February 25, 2009 at 5:10 PM
The congress spokesperson does it again:
Aditya Reddy:When polls are conducted on orkut.com the BJP gets more than 60 percent of the votes , that means the urban rich youth (which consists of the pub goers) love the BJP. Also on the net you find a lot of people supporting BJP but few like Congress or the Left. Dont you think BJP is for the educated and most of the pub goers would vote for BJP if they vote.
Sagarika Ghose: thats a good question. i think the bjp is facing a real crisis in its identity. it was supposed to be the party of Shining India, of urban India, of upwardly mobile India. Now with the actions of the sene and other hindu outfits, the very class that was pro-BJP finds itself being targetted by elements within the party. there was the famous image of BJP leader pramod mahajan on a treadmill. suhsma swaraj’s daughter, vajpayee’s daughter are all extremely modern women. and am sure rahul mahajan goes to pubs! so the urban BJP voter must be a bit confused right now whether the bjp is a “party of the future” or not!
February 25, 2009 at 5:45 PM
Ashok, you are giving the stats as per ibn.
which only proves, you are one of the members working for ibn team.
In Telangana even congress leaders are scary of facing the electorate for decieving them on T issue.
The committees and SRC wont help matters for INC in Telangana.
February 25, 2009 at 6:21 PM
Look everyone tomorrow at 12 o clock Indian time IST Sagarika Ghose will be online chatting about elections 2009 on ibnpolitics.com. It was postponed from today to tomorrow for obvious reasons. we all know that and lets bomb her with PRO BJP questions. Lets annihilate that channel.
February 25, 2009 at 6:23 PM
Also my question has already been posted here by lkadvani.in and she answered it surprisingly but she confused herself more than confusing the BJP voters. But do not miss the chance tomorrow at 12 O Clock but be a little polite in your questions otherwise she will not answer.
February 25, 2009 at 6:30 PM
YSR is no Modi that he can beat anti incumbency . He will lose badly and Telangana will be formed and should be formed . Chiranjeevi is one big fool who can barely communicate and I mean even in Telugu. He will prove to be a lakshmi parvathy in 2009 elections but yeah the kapus might vote. BJP should never accomodate him as he has no intelligence at all. B T W he is a drunkard who is not even meeting his own party people if they come before 12 noon as he drinks late into the night and sleeps. NTR was a fool too but he was a charismatic personality and had excellent command over telugu and acted in good mythologicals where as Chiranjeevis movies are all trash and I doubt urban voters and youth expecially in hyderabad would even consider voting for him. In hyderabad it is wither BJP MIM and in secunderabad it is BJP with CHiranjeevi s party getting screwed by all parties.
February 25, 2009 at 6:35 PM
Look everyone in MP shivraj singh chauhan , in chattusgarh raman singh , in guj modi and in delhi Sheila won as they had integrity of character where as YSR s reputation is that of a factionist and is even worse noe after scams etc,, so hell with hi and ppl will reject him outright. it will be hung assembly in AP and as I see it
Congress- 12
Mahakutami- 14
bjp- 8
prp- 5
others- 3
February 25, 2009 at 6:55 PM
Hi
I feel really upbeat after analysis posted by our fellow pro BJP friend…
Media is really bad by giving the false impresssion that BJP is not good party vote.
Sagarika Ghosh has been awarded
http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/86248/cnnibn-senior-editor-sagarika-ghose-honoured.html
February 25, 2009 at 6:57 PM
Others 3?
Adi Gaaru, where are You?
No Way that there is any chance for others in AP besides, The Four Players.
Chiru can win a Majority of Seats in Konaseema(Region between Bezawada/Vijayawada and Rajumundry) as well as in UttarAndhra
In These Regions, BJP has high Potential in Visakhapatnam(4 +1 including Gajuwaka Assembly Segments),urban Rajumundry(has lot of Vaishyas here),one of The Two Guntur Assembly Segments and 3-4 Assembly segments in Bezawada/Vijayawada.
In Addition, BJP can win about 1-2 Assembly segments in Narsapur Parliamentary Constituency. However, Cross Voting is expected here.
True, as Much as They want KrishnamRaju as Union Minister, they would also like to see chiru as CM.
In Rayalaseema, The State of BJP is Pathetic with The Exception of Hindupur Parliamentary Constituency. But, with BJP strongly considering to Field Naresh(BJP’s Hindupur Lok Sabha Nominee) from Tirupati against Chiru(Which in my View is Foolish),even a remote chance of winning This seat has to be withdrawn from The Thought.
The case for Hindupur was already weakened by TDP’s decision to field NTR’s Son Balakrishna from here.
Among The Assembly Segments , BJP has a chance only in Kadiri,Madanapalle and Thamballapalle(where Their Candidate lost Narrowly in 2004 due to the presence of TDP Rebel with the blessings of then CM and TDP Chief Chandra Babu Naidu)
BJP should revert The Decision of Fielding Shanta Reddy from Rajampeta Parliamentary Constituency as She is An OutSider There and Instead ask her to contest Assembly Elections.
It is A Must, That BJP should Promote Powerful Orators at State Level, if BJP plans to gain Strngth in AP besides Telangana and Select Urban Areas in Coastal Andhra.
In The Manifesto for AP State Assembly, BJP should Include The Implementation of “Sree Bhaag Agreement” in Letter and Spirit.
Bringing about atleast 120 tmc ft of Water from Godavari and Krishna Rivers which are running down into The Bay of Bengal.
Take up The Issue of Galeru Nagari and Hundri/Handri – Niva Projects and also The Pothyreddypadu Power Project.
Also Include, The 50,000 Crore Package for Rayalaseema in The Manifesto for AP State Assembly.
Force Venkaiah Naidu to Contest AP State Assembly Elections.Including Setting up of Rayalaseema Atonomous Development Council with A Seperate Electricity and Water Boards as well as A Seperate Agriculture Products Marketing Board for Rayalaseema Region.
Assure The Same(of setting up Rayalaseema Atonomous Development Council) in The National Manifesto.
These are some of The Tips, Which I suppose would be Passed on When Arun Bhai meets Arun Jaitley in Mumbai over The Weekend.
February 25, 2009 at 6:59 PM
None can win any Seats in Lok Sabha from AP besides, BJP, Grand Alliance, INC and PRP.
No Scope for Others including mim
February 25, 2009 at 7:03 PM
Dear Awn, as long as cnn works as communal news network-islamochurcist broadcasters news, they would be awarded under upa chairperson’s directions.
the entire National Media is under her control. This only disgusts us and makes us more determined to overthrow her and teach these lowlives a lesson.
February 25, 2009 at 7:10 PM
RAJ When I said others I mean independents and may be MIM Bastads,
anywez forget that let us log on tomorrow to cnn ibn at 12 o clock and screw Sagarika ghose with pro bjp and anti congress questions …
And you must do it as you have great political knowledge but be polite or else she will not answer…
February 25, 2009 at 7:14 PM
The Dates for Elections are to be announced by Weekend, and still in TN, The Siuation is Fluid.
If PMK and DMDK deicide to Shelve Their Differences and Join Hands(over the last few years, there are No attacks by PMK on DMDK and No strong words by DMDK’s Captain on PMK Leaders/Cadres) on The Common Issue of Lankan Tamils and If All of Them Ally With NDA which would also have MDMK and VCK, That Would be A Formidable alliance agaisnt both AIADMK-Left as well as dmk–congress
PMK Leader Ramadoss has stated that, he would soon take a decision on Alliance.
PMK is a fence sitter.
MDMK is neither with dmk/AIADMK as of Date for Jayalalithaa has refused to concede The Madurai Assembly Segment to MDMK which won in 2006. Jayalalithaa has stated in response that Alliannce with MDMK existed only till The 2006 Polls and ended past Local Body Elections in October 2006.
Now, if congress deserts dmk and joins hands with AIADMK, then dmk-left would be Wiped off even in Chennai central, North Chennai and Thiruvottiyur Parliamentary Seats, which would otherwise be considered as DMK Strongholds.
BJP-DMDK-PMK-MDMK-VCK is unbeatable and would Win atleast 25 Parliamentary Seats
February 25, 2009 at 7:15 PM
Look at ibnpolitics.com headlines ans see what their headlines are .. man this time junta is seriously going to go aganist congress and once bjp comes to power theyt should sue ibn man,.. in fact ravi shankar prasad had given a hint after karnataka polls but lets wait and watch,,but the geenral ground feeling that I get from various blogs is that yougsters hate congress.. I mean the educated ones like us ..and this time 1.5 crore new voters and they should and will kich congress out,, if it is done to inc in andhra pradesh it is enuogh as this the only remiaining congress bastion today while rajasthan was a fluke and that too bjp was too close,, delhi is too small to be termed a bastion while maharashtra is an alliance… so andhra pradesh is the major problem for india and hence it should be split up ..
February 25, 2009 at 7:17 PM
Dear Adi, This Time NO Way that MIM has any Chance.
Independents Have Never Won a Parliamentary seat from Southern States.
The Split in Muslim Votes will Only Help BJP in Hyderabad.
Even in Assembly, mim can win just one seat, Charminar filled with pakisthani and bangladeshi immigrants overstaying illegally in Our Bharat and helping and planning terrorist attacks by jehadis
February 25, 2009 at 7:17 PM
Indian youth are fans of modi and they also hate Rajdeep and sagaraika,, see these videos of modi at hindustan times and see them all to see how modi screws rajdeep man this guy modi is a genius ,, see them all i am posting the forst part,, thge other parts you can get easily folloeing the link,, watch them guys,,,it will invigorate you all and circulate them as much as possible.
February 25, 2009 at 7:19 PM
in Chandrayangutta, majlis bachao tehreek would win this time.
the splitting of muslim votes would help BJP in Nampally, Karwaan and Yakutpura(provided BJP fields, Sirajunnissa Begum from here as They did last time)
February 25, 2009 at 7:20 PM
I have seen That Dear Adi
sagarika is Evangelized and she prefers being addressed as “suzane” in private
February 25, 2009 at 7:34 PM
What are you sure raj thst sagarika is christian..
February 25, 2009 at 7:42 PM
Raj how good has your strike rate been in predicting elections Imean could you predict Rjasthan , mp , chattisgarh and delhi,,, ok and predict how many will all the parties get in lok sabha in AP and India,, Ihave a feeling BJP will easily be signle largest party with 180- 200 seats but NDA might not cross 272 mark ,, but am sure Babu will support from outside but I feel BJP should not align with himas he says he lso tbacuse muslims did not vote but the fact is he won in 1999 because of BJP . in fact he lost in 2004 by 0.9 % less votes than congress and that is anti incumbency and he is plain stupid.. BJP should be with BJD , SAD SHS, JDU AGP RLD INLD SOME PARTY IN NAGALAND BUT NOT TDP ..,,as the above parties in the NDA make it homogeneous and it will be easier to have ram mandir or uniform civil code… even if congress supports third front it will not be stable so BJP shoulsd inspite of being largest prrty sit in opposition and ultimate in mid term polls they will gwet majority like in karnataka…
February 25, 2009 at 8:07 PM
Yes Dear Adi, I lost The Link now after my system was upgraded(earlier, I stored on Desktop), it has Full Evidence That she(sagarika ghosh) is A Christian.
February 25, 2009 at 8:09 PM
Dear Adi, I would Not Wish to predict now. But, to my Intution, BJP would Cross 200 Mark.
The Anti-BJP Media will Only Fuel The Youth to Vote for BJP.
February 25, 2009 at 8:33 PM
Though I am A Strong Atheist; Hindutva ,Cultural Nationalism and Integral Humanism are The ONLY Weapons Against Anti-National and Anti-Human jehadi, evangelical and politically correct lowlives.
February 25, 2009 at 8:34 PM
And What Prevents me from Being An Atheist but yet Espound Hindutva and Cultural Nationalism — Even Veer Savarkar was An Atheist.
February 25, 2009 at 8:43 PM
Enthused by the success of the public meeting of the Gujarat Chief Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, in Karimnagar recently, the BJP is planning to organize several such meetings with the party’s top leaders in various parts of the State in the coming weeks.
The State party chief, Mr Bandaru Dattatreya, said that two such meetings would be held in South Telangana and Hyderabad shortly.
On February 27, the party would organize Vijaya Sankalpa Yatra of party senior leader and Prime Ministerial candidate, Mr L K Advani, in Madanapalle in Chittoor district. Party’s national leaders would address public meetings to be organized by the State party from March 3 to March 25, he said.
On March 6, the party would organize a Mahila Sankalpa Rally in the Exhibition Grounds at Nampalli where senior national party leader, Ms Sushma Swaraj would address.
The party president, Mr Rajnath Singh, would address the party State executive meeting to be held on March 7, in Warangal, Mr Dattatreya said.
February 25, 2009 at 8:47 PM
This is A Great News for BJP in Andhra Pradesh.
Also, The Choice of Holding Rayalaseema Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Madanapalli Will Boost BJP as This Region has a Huge Muslim Population.
The Assembly Segments where BJP Should Concentrate in Rayalaseema are :
Kadiri,Madanapalle,Thamballapalle,Puttaparthy,Pileru,Kodur, Badvel and also Hindupur, even if Balakrishna is fielded from here. BJP Shouldnt give up.
February 25, 2009 at 8:47 PM
The Souce is AndhraHeadlines.com
February 25, 2009 at 9:00 PM
I am Very Glad BJP is Taking AP seriously Though Media is undermining The Effect of BJP in AP including in The Telangana Region and Urban Centres in Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
February 25, 2009 at 10:35 PM
Yeah RAJ
Even I am not a great beleiver in god but Hinduism does not say you have to beleive in god to be a Hindu, In fact the last time I went to a temple was 5 years ago after my uncle bought a car and took it to a temple for puja ,, during festivals I sit in front of RAM VINAYAKA VISHNU OR SHIVA but I do it as a tradition just like paying respect to great ppl like bhagat singh and not as belief that RAM will listen to my prayers and help..BUT I Am A PROUD HINDU
February 25, 2009 at 11:10 PM
Exactly, Ours is Based on Karma and Hard Work and NOT on Prayers
February 26, 2009 at 10:06 AM
Hi Raj,
In alliance with BJP, how many seats MDMK and DMDK can win.
February 26, 2009 at 10:17 AM
Well, MDMK is strong in Central TamilNadu. DMDK’s Votebase is in The same Region as in The Vanniyar Belt. Hence, The PMK Option has to be Weighed Carefully. VCK is Popular in Around Chidambaram Parliamentary Constituency(Not P Chidambaram’s Parliamentary Constituency). If Puthiya Tamizhagam joins Hands with NDA, then;BJP has to leave Theni(Res) to Dr. Krishnaswamy of Puthiya Tamizhagam.Pit MDMK Only Against DMK. Also, Encourage Vaiko to contest from North Chennai(This part of Chennai is in News recently due to attack on Lawers by Police and The DMK government’s lethargic responsde in taking action against DGP).
Field A Strong Candidate Against dayanidhi maran from central chennai.
BJP’s Strength is in The Southern Districts and Western Ghats(Again Only in Discrete Centres, while, BJP is A Rural Party in Southern Districts of TN, it is essentially urban/semi-urban in The Western Ghats and Exclusively Urban in South Chennai).
Also, BJP should fight in A Minimum of 10 Seats in TN(With or Without Pondicherry)
And Dear Ritesh Bhai, BJP in TN as of date cant field more than 12-15 candidates. so, settling for 10-12 seats in TN would be Good for The Party and also Respectable. Most Importantly, dont let Alliance Partners Dictate The Terms over the choice of Candidates and The Constituencies.
Never compromise of : South Chennai, Coimbatore,Kanniyakumari,SivaGanga ,Ramanathapuram and Thiruchirapally Parliamentary Constituencies.
Other Seats can be Negotiable.
February 26, 2009 at 10:20 AM
Dear Ritesh, in TN, We cant Predict at this stage.
As The Election Campaign Gears up, We see The Momentum. Also, The other camps too have to be considered.
Also, Vaiko should be Made A Star Campaigner.
I have to Admit, His Oratry Skills Are Extraordinary and Quite Impressive when He Delivers in Tamil. Thol Thirumavalavan can attract a Section of Dalit Votes9In TN as well as in AP, Dalits Dont vote Enmasse to A Particular Party, They are Q
February 26, 2009 at 10:21 AM
contd…
They are Quite Conscious about The Subcaste.
February 26, 2009 at 10:23 AM
And A Large Section of Dalits Still Vote only for AIADMK, Particularly in Southern Districts.
Also, BJP’s Votebase in Southern Districts are of Thevars and Nadar Castes, who are percieved as Enemies of Dalits, hence, Thirumavalavan should Not be used for campaign here.
February 26, 2009 at 10:36 AM
I think the most important question is will BJP be able to muster an alliance,
I think DMDK is loosing its shine, look at the news below, vijayakanth is looking for excuse to boycott the elections.
http://www.chennaionline.com/Columns/DailyDose/Feb09/02Dailydose24.aspx
Unfortunately, they lost a great leader in Ranganathan, who would have proved very useful at this time. They don’t have have master strategist who can put together such alliance. I don’t know if subramanium swamy of JP can help them.
February 26, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Hi,
If BJP alliancae partner can win 12 seats in TN. In that case BJP should leave only 12 seats and ramaining one BJP should put candidate.In that case allinace partner will put candidates with BJP also.
Advantage
—————
1.BJP would able to make base in TN.
2.If BJP’s partner wins election, they will support BJP in centre.
3.BJP may win or may not win. No problem. Atleast BJP may get base.
4. Raj– My aim is only BJP should create base in TN. Winning of BJP is not important for me in TN, If MDMK and DMDK get 10 seats.
February 26, 2009 at 11:12 AM
Dear Ritesh, in TN, BJP Cant afford to Put Candidates in 28 Parliamentary Constituencies.
And Dear AK, VijayKanth would have to regret if He decides to Bouycott elections. DMDK is NO Akali Dal to Bouycott Elections. He Cant Afford to Fight Alone too.
Janatha Party has NO Base in TN.
Dr. Subramanian Swamy Cannot be Trusted.
And Dear Ritesh Bhai, in This Election it is Not creating Base in TN for BJP, it is a Must that BJP Wins some seats.
Develope Base Later(before the next assembly Polls)
February 26, 2009 at 11:49 AM
Hi Raj,
If MDMK and DMDK can not win election more then 12 seats no need to leave seats form them. If BJP gets 3% votes in some seats no problem.IF BJP is having any alliances or not BJP can not win more than 2 seats in TN.
February 26, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Guys that chat with Sagarika starts in 10minuted post your questions now , they will be in queue
February 26, 2009 at 12:18 PM
This was the question i posted and this is how she answered:
naren:Do you think BJP is a growing party and Congress is a shrink party? We saw BJP forming its first government in Karnataka and in UP they making a big comeback in the general elections whereas the Congress party is struggling to hold on to their earlier fortress?
Sagarika Ghose: i think the bjp is in a severe dilemma. It has only five allies at the moment, across India many parties are wary of tying up with it for fear of losing the muslim vote. Chandrababu naidu and mamta banerjee have left the NDA (mamta is undecided). the once 23 party NDA is now a five party rag tag bunch. plus, think the bjp is stuck for issues. it is now trying to say it is anti dynasty..but i think it knows that it simply does not have an emotive issue for this election, as Hindutva has run out of steam. thos sympathetic to the BJP have been put off by the violence unleashed by so called “hindu “goons and the manner in which Hindutva has simply become a excuse for criminal behaviour. this is sad
I asked her about BJP, she answered about the NDA
February 26, 2009 at 12:45 PM
om i asken so many questions taking on various names ill post them then we can have our fun
February 26, 2009 at 12:45 PM
Aditya Reddy:I am Aditya from Hyderabad and I would like to congratulate you for speaking against the perpetrators of the Mangalore Pub attack. At the same time I would like to say here that Congress is unnecessarily politicizing this incident in spite of the BJP having condemned them attack and also made arrests though the alleged attackers had to be released on bail as per the provisions of the law. On the other hand in Hyderabad the MIM party (they are in the UPA Alliance) regularly indulges in mindless violence like the attack on Taslima Nasreen, then the attack on the doctors at Niloufer Hospital and then firing at GHMC officials in Abids( All happened in the last year or so). The Ram Sena has apologized for the attack but the MIM (allies of the Congress) till date have neither condemned nor apologized for any of these incidents and in fact Akbaruddin Owaisi (the person in charge of MIM) had openly said that he is proud of what the MIM have done to Taslima. I did not hear Renuka Chowdhury, a self proclaimed feminist, speaking out against the attack on Taslima nor against the attack on junior doctors ( women were assaulted too ) in Niloufer Hospital. The so called secular or should I say communal Congress government in Hyderabad has not taken any strong action against the MLAs involved like Afsar Khan and Ahmed Pasha Quadri though these people have openly called for implementation of Fatwa (i.e beheading her) against Taslima. Renuka Chowdhury has called Ram Sena guys hoodlums and hooligans but she has not said these things about MIM , is she afraid of them.How can Congress party be called secular when they are going out of their way to please extremists like Owaisi . Would Manish Tiwari have remained quiet if Ram Sena or BJP attacked a hospital.
Sagarika Ghose: true, vandalism exists in all parties–congress and bjp.
February 26, 2009 at 12:45 PM
Congrats Aditya, you made her surrender!!!! Kudos Mate!!!
February 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Aditya Reddy:I am Aditya from Hyderabad and I would like to congratulate you for speaking against the perpetrators of the Mangalore Pub attack. At the same time I would like to say here that Congress is unnecessarily politicizing this incident in spite of the BJP having condemned them attack and also made arrests though the alleged attackers had to be released on bail as per the provisions of the law. On the other hand in Hyderabad the MIM party (they are in the UPA Alliance) regularly indulges in mindless violence like the attack on Taslima Nasreen, then the attack on the doctors at Niloufer Hospital and then firing at GHMC officials in Abids( All happened in the last year or so). The Ram Sena has apologized for the attack but the MIM (allies of the Congress) till date have neither condemned nor apologized for any of these incidents and in fact Akbaruddin Owaisi (the person in charge of MIM) had openly said that he is proud of what the MIM have done to Taslima. I did not hear Renuka Chowdhury, a self proclaimed feminist, speaking out against the attack on Taslima nor against the attack on junior doctors ( women were assaulted too ) in Niloufer Hospital. The so called secular or should I say communal Congress government in Hyderabad has not taken any strong action against the MLAs involved like Afsar Khan and Ahmed Pasha Quadri though these people have openly called for implementation of Fatwa (i.e beheading her) against Taslima. Renuka Chowdhury has called Ram Sena guys hoodlums and hooligans but she has not said these things about MIM , is she afraid of them.How can Congress party be called secular when they are going out of their way to please extremists like Owaisi . Would Manish Tiwari have remained quiet if Ram Sena or BJP attacked a hospital.
Sagarika Ghose: true, vandalism exists in all parties–congress and bjp.
February 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Dear all strategy should not be to ask proBJP questions with Sagarika rather we should ask scientific & neutral questions whichg clearly opens up their hollowness and biased attitude, which will be clearly expressed in their frustrated responses.
the one I tried and the answer by her shows it clearly, bombard such questions, she will start crying.
VIKAS:According to you, Do you think it is not totally stupid to project seats in opinion polls, when most of the parties had not announced their candidates as u are saying caste, community (in rural areas), personality, charisma, criminal/public life of candidates 9in urban areas) matter a lot for most of the seats, potent rebel candidates have not emerged yet? My specific question is – What is the credibility of these polls?
Sagarika Ghose: we have only done a single opinion poll on the elections so far, and there will be no more polls. so you don’t have to get agitated about anymore polls!
February 26, 2009 at 12:47 PM
Mehul Dixit:BJP is a party which has great support among the urban educated voters . Why is it then that news channels like yours have a leftist agenda which they have to aggressively pursue.
Sagarika Ghose: I would like to state on record that CNN IBN has no political leanings whatsoever. We are totally neutral. We are firmly committed to the ideals of the fourth estate by which we believe that its the duty of journalists to aggressively question all those in power and hold them accountable to the public. We have never been “pro congress” or “anti bjp” , but its is always easy to talk about “media bias” when you don;t like what the media is showing.
February 26, 2009 at 12:50 PM
VikasjI G8
Answer my Qs in the North india forum, i have asked about the constituencies in and around lucknow
Chatting with Sagarika was real fun!!!
February 26, 2009 at 12:59 PM
The biggest Commedy of 2009 general elections:
naren:Is congress a more corrupt party than BJP, we saw Satyam and now Sukhram?? WIll that be a big disadvantage for the congress??
Sagarika Ghose: not sure how the satyam factor will play in andhra. Chandrababu naidu was once the poster boy of satyam too..also the anti-rajashekhar vote seems to be divided between TDP, TRS and Left. chandrababu has not really been able to capitalise on reddy’s weak points.
I have to remaind Sagarika, that all the parties she mentioned have divided the anti-YSR vote are in alliance. The height of idiotic journalism stills prevails in IBN!!!
February 26, 2009 at 1:01 PM
Sagarika calls that ysr bastad Modi of andhra pradesh.. Modi ka izzat ka sawaal hai guys.. modi is not corrupt at all and he is a patriot who has integrity,, ysr salla gunda
February 26, 2009 at 1:05 PM
Full text of the chat, lets start bashing now!!!!
The chat is over. Due to time constraints, all questions could not be answered. Thank you for joining.
ravikumar ck:I believe in southern part on india,still National parties doesn’t have upper hand,so that only southern states are going decide who will be our next PM.
Sagarika Ghose: not sure whether southern states will decide new pm. donlt thinkwe can have another deve gowda type PM as we had in 1996. it all depends on who wins big. if jayalaitha r mayawati come with a big haul of seats they will be in a position to dictate who they will want as PM. If Left comes in with even 30 seats they will still be able to dictate who they will suppport as PM. and this time they are unlikely to support manmohan singh!
vinod:Do you think BSP will be force tihis time or it is just hype centered around Mayawati?
Sagarika Ghose: The BSP question is a fascinating one. I have been a follower of the BSP for long time and know that it was the amazing and untiring organisational efforts of Kanshi Ram that has brought the BSP to where it is at the moment. there are many in the old bamcef cadres for example who are upset at her new social engineering. the BSP did well in delhi in these assembly elections–opening its seat account for the first time. these elections will be the first ttest of mayawati without kanshi ram.
naren:Is congress a more corrupt party than BJP, we saw Satyam and now Sukhram?? WIll that be a big disadvantage for the congress??
Sagarika Ghose: not sure how the satyam factor will play in andhra. Chandrababu naidu was once the poster boy of satyam too..also the anti-rajashekhar vote seems to be divided between TDP, TRS and Left. chandrababu has not really been able to capitalise on reddy’s weak points.
Narayanan S:Hi Sagarika. Good day to you. The real issue that must decide who comes to power, must be on the basis of who can solve the impending large scale unemployment due to the financial crisis, terrorism and external affairs management. The villages and small towns also must be made nodes and cornerstones of development, leveraging on agriculture, retailing etc, which is our strength. But alas! I think that chunk of our electorate today vote for the MP on local issues, his/her performance and of course religion cast and creed. So whoever forms the better/smarter alliance wins. Is this good in the long term.? what are your views
Sagarika Ghose: yes you are right, its all about alliances. at the moment the UPA alliance looks like a broader alliancethan the NDA so it might give them a better chance. it will be interesting to see what happens to the so called Third Front–their strategy centres around mayawati winning big and making a pitch for the prime ministerial chair. but there is still no core party around which a third front can form–so unlikely that there will be a deve gowda type PM as in 1996. but the king makers this time are jaya maya mamta and Left!
anwesha:Dear Ma’am first of all Congrats for getting the award. Keep it up! Now the question, do you really think that India will ever vote (Especially the cow belt) sans caste? does the larger part of bharat become so matured and educated who would vote on real issues such as bijli, sadak, pani, siksha, naukri and right of an individual?
Sagarika Ghose: Thanks anwesha! I hope the electorate is maturing. if you see the success of the recent chief ministers–be they shiela dixit, raman singh or shivraj singh chouhan in MP, all of them have won not necessarily on the basis of caste and community factors but because oftheir “pro development” image. If caste was so all important would Mayawati not have made huge inroads among dalits in Maharashtra or Punjab? clearly caste does not work all the time!
Jitendra Ajmera:Do you think any political party is going to make ‘security to women’ in India a political issue?
Sagarika Ghose: i wish they would! it would be a really positive agenda.):
Aditya Reddy:I am Aditya from Hyderabad and I would like to congratulate you for speaking against the perpetrators of the Mangalore Pub attack. At the same time I would like to say here that Congress is unnecessarily politicizing this incident in spite of the BJP having condemned them attack and also made arrests though the alleged attackers had to be released on bail as per the provisions of the law. On the other hand in Hyderabad the MIM party (they are in the UPA Alliance) regularly indulges in mindless violence like the attack on Taslima Nasreen, then the attack on the doctors at Niloufer Hospital and then firing at GHMC officials in Abids( All happened in the last year or so). The Ram Sena has apologized for the attack but the MIM (allies of the Congress) till date have neither condemned nor apologized for any of these incidents and in fact Akbaruddin Owaisi (the person in charge of MIM) had openly said that he is proud of what the MIM have done to Taslima. I did not hear Renuka Chowdhury, a self proclaimed feminist, speaking out against the attack on Taslima nor against the attack on junior doctors ( women were assaulted too ) in Niloufer Hospital. The so called secular or should I say communal Congress government in Hyderabad has not taken any strong action against the MLAs involved like Afsar Khan and Ahmed Pasha Quadri though these people have openly called for implementation of Fatwa (i.e beheading her) against Taslima. Renuka Chowdhury has called Ram Sena guys hoodlums and hooligans but she has not said these things about MIM , is she afraid of them.How can Congress party be called secular when they are going out of their way to please extremists like Owaisi . Would Manish Tiwari have remained quiet if Ram Sena or BJP attacked a hospital.
Sagarika Ghose: true, vandalism exists in all parties–congress and bjp.
VIKAS:According to you, Do you think it is not totally stupid to project seats in opinion polls, when most of the parties had not announced their candidates as u are saying caste, community (in rural areas), personality, charisma, criminal/public life of candidates 9in urban areas) matter a lot for most of the seats, potent rebel candidates have not emerged yet? My specific question is – What is the credibility of these polls?
Sagarika Ghose: we have only done a single opinion poll on the elections so far, and there will be no more polls. so you don’t have to get agitated about anymore polls!
sana:Hi sagarika, congrats on the FLO award.
persoanlly, do you think a sysetm of two-party works in india? isn’t a multi-party democracy adding to problem of plenty? your honest take?
Sagarika Ghose: thanks sana. thats a good question! lalu Yadav said recently that national parties are passe and its the regional parties which are the real high command. Today it is jayalalitha Mayawati TDP DMK Trinamol who hold the keys to forming a government. Frankly my idea of a political contest is a two party system battling it out on issues and ideology. politics, after all, atbthe end of the day is contest of ideas. But in India its all about local parties and their captive votes. which is why general election results are a derived result from state election results! In a country as diverse and huge as India, I guess a two party system is an impossibility!
Mehul Dixit:BJP is a party which has great support among the urban educated voters . Why is it then that news channels like yours have a leftist agenda which they have to aggressively pursue.
Sagarika Ghose: I would like to state on record that CNN IBN has no political leanings whatsoever. We are totally neutral. We are firmly committed to the ideals of the fourth estate by which we believe that its the duty of journalists to aggressively question all those in power and hold them accountable to the public. We have never been “pro congress” or “anti bjp” , but its is always easy to talk about “media bias” when you don;t like what the media is showing.
vinod:Do you agree that the Congress will suffer the most if BSP performs well in its stronghold of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab
Sagarika Ghose: in the last elections, the congress got big victories in Andhra, Bihar and Tamil nadu and delhi. these states make up 128 seats. such a result is going to be difficult to replicate. Most of the congress’s allies are upset that it is not going in for national alliances and putting pressure on the congress for seats as the NCP is doing in Maharashtra and the SP in UP. I don;t think a BSP performance will affect cong in andhra–rajasekhar reddy looks strong inspite of satyam–he’s called the narendra modi of andhra!
arunnair:good evening sagarika, but don t you think that barely 1/5 of the people who watch the english news channels (high income and upper middle class) actually go out and vote.. they barely make their voice heard as was seen in the last general elections?
Sagarika Ghose: i donlt think thats ecessarily true. I think there is a heightened interest in the political process, with campaigns like jaago re encouraging people to vote. a number of middle class professional people are also joining political parties. In terms of sheer numbers big rural caste lobbies will always have more political clout but its no longer the “secession of the successful” as far as the middle class is concerned.
Krishna Kilambi:Yes, in AP a lot goes by the caste. I find people defending all the mistakes done by the candidate from their caste when pitted against a person from a different caste. So performance and righteousness comes into picture only when two persons are from the same caste.
Sagarika Ghose: caste based politics is firmly entrenched in south india. in karnataka for example, the bjp is more a lingayat party than a party of “hindutva”. Chiranjeevi is relying on the kapu vote. the PMK, MDMK all have their backward-dalit vote banks.but I also think we must not underestimate the role of the political economy–as livelihood, employment, quality of life, infrastructure, facilities etc become important, then voters might vote for performing candidates rather than simply caste candidates.
vinod:If Congress manages 25 seats (Andhra), 25 seats (Tamil Nadu) and 25 (with trinamool in Bengal), it will be back in power.
Sagarika Ghose: Congress seems to be doing well in key states like andhra and kerala, basically because the opposition has not been able to exploit its weaknesses. if the cong-SP alliance works out, it could bring a rich harvest of votes in UP> don;t think congress will be able to form a government on its own–may need support from whoever is willing and in that case some compromises might have to be made about manmohan singh as prime ministerial candidate.
Avishek:Hi Except parts of North and central India do you think caste equations can play a decisive role in deciding winners in the coming elections. regarding the topic if you say that caste equations do not play a lesser role in electoral politics now, then how will you define Mayawati’s victory in the last assemble polls?
Sagarika Ghose: mayawati’s victory in the last polls was a great example of how even the BSP has moved beyond pure caste based politics. mayawati increasingly emphasises the “samta mulak samaj’ or “sarvajan samaj” rather than the bahujan samaj and has totally cut out her anti upper caste rehtoric. even the trademark “jai bheem” of the BSP has been done away with to attract muslim voters.So mayawti’s success was not about caste but happened because of a miraculous cross-caste alliance in which brahmins were given tickets by a dalit party!
Gaurav HG:It hardly matters for the urban cities. But some places where religion is priority does make a difference.
Sagarika Ghose: delimitation of constituencies will have a big impact on these elections. there are new urban dominated constituencies and this could mean that “bijli safak pani naukri padhai becomes more important than jati and dharam.
su:There is a belief that the Brahmin votes in U.P. will switch to BJP and that could be one reason why ‘Ram Mandir’ card is sought to be revived.
Sagarika Ghose: one of the reasons why the bjp is decling in UP is because upper castes are switching to mayawati. she is now giving increasing number of seats to brahmins who prefer to go with mayawati as they feel that she is on the winning streak. In UP, “ugta suraj ko sab pranam karte hai”. the alliance of kalyan singh and mulayam is bad news for the bjp. they now have an alliance with Ajit Singh–but doubtful whether this will bring too many rewards.
naren:Do you think BJP is a growing party and Congress is a shrink party? We saw BJP forming its first government in Karnataka and in UP they making a big comeback in the general elections whereas the Congress party is struggling to hold on to their earlier fortress?
Sagarika Ghose: i think the bjp is in a severe dilemma. It has only five allies at the moment, across India many parties are wary of tying up with it for fear of losing the muslim vote. Chandrababu naidu and mamta banerjee have left the NDA (mamta is undecided). the once 23 party NDA is now a five party rag tag bunch. plus, think the bjp is stuck for issues. it is now trying to say it is anti dynasty..but i think it knows that it simply does not have an emotive issue for this election, as Hindutva has run out of steam. thos sympathetic to the BJP have been put off by the violence unleashed by so called “hindu “goons and the manner in which Hindutva has simply become a excuse for criminal behaviour. this is sad.
Rishabh Parashar:If caste & community don’t matter anymore, then how come Messers Mayawati, Mulayam Singh, Laloo Prasad, Ramvilas Paswan etc are thriving in Indian politics ? Do they really have that kind of merit in them ?
Sagarika Ghose: Caste and community do matter, but perhaps they matter less than they used to. If you look at the assembly elections of 2008 in delhi rajasthan chattisgarh and madhya pradesh, voters seem to be opting for governance and a good record and seem to be voting for chief ministers who could bring them vikaas. Bit there’s no doubt that caste vote banks still remain strong among the “mandalite” leaders, although Nitish Kumar in Bihar is also projecting himself increasingly as a “pro development” chief minister
Sahil A Naqvi:Hi Sagarika, if we leave issues of caste and community aside, on what basis will elections be fought in our country,considering the fact that both the major rival political alliances have more or less same take on other national issues like economy, foreign policy, agriculture, etc.
Sagarika Ghose: This is a good question. in fact when it comes to policies there seems to be a concensus among political parties–although on the nuclear deal, national security, there is some policy difference. parties still don’t identify themselves with particular policy initiatives, whicht hey should. the upa has a lot to be proud of (in my opinion) in the NREGS, right to information act and forest dwellers act. but they have not tried to make theseinto voter issues.
suresh:Sagarika,if that was the reality then how do you explain the strong nucleus of supporters of regional satraps like Mulayam and Mayamemsahib who are basically caste based leaders.Even,Shri Amar Singh derives his strength essentially from his Kayasth community.Whenever the votes polled in a particlar segment of a constituency is analysed,mostly it reflects the caste/community profile the winning candidate is seen to represent.
Sagarika Ghose: mulayam and mayawati do come from caste based political movements. but mayawati’s bold new move is now to create a “samta mulak samaj” instead of a bahujan samaj. in the assembly elections she gave a large number of tickets to brahmins. in fact one of the reasons why the bjp is declining in UP is because brahmins are preferring to go with Mayawati instead of the BJP, because in UP after all, “ugta suraj ko kaun nahi pranam karega?”.so mayawati’s caste base is certainly no longer restricted to the bahujan samaj..
Aditya Reddy:When polls are conducted on orkut.com the BJP gets more than 60 percent of the votes , that means the urban rich youth (which consists of the pub goers) love the BJP. Also on the net you find a lot of people supporting BJP but few like Congress or the Left. Dont you think BJP is for the educated and most of the pub goers would vote for BJP if they vote.
Sagarika Ghose: thats a good question. i think the bjp is facing a real crisis in its identity. it was supposed to be the party of Shining India, of urban India, of upwardly mobile India. Now with the actions of the sene and other hindu outfits, the very class that was pro-BJP finds itself being targetted by elements within the party. there was the famous image of BJP leader pramod mahajan on a treadmill. suhsma swaraj’s daughter, vajpayee’s daughter are all extremely modern women. and am sure rahul mahajan goes to pubs! so the urban BJP voter must be a bit confused right now whether the bjp is a “party of the future” or not!
Ajay:It is people who are educated who say that it doesn’t matter. So considering that they hardly cast their ballot – Don’t you think it could still matter?
Sagarika Ghose: with delimitation of constituencies, there are many more urban constituencies in these elections. caste considerations might matter less when voters are more urban. however, in states like rajasthan the rivalries between castes like between jats and gujjars continue to have an important role in elections..i just think that instead of jati and dhram, nowadays bijli sadak paani naukri and padhai are becoming more important
sasikanth:I believe in india cast and community matters every where.In politics , these two will come in to first in giving MLA or MP tickets for elections.I hails from the state of Andhra pradesh.Where all the four dominant parties are represented by four casts. INC dominated by Reddy community , TDP by KAMMA or Chowdary , TRS by VELAMA and PRP by KAPU( Actor Chiranjeevi). The remaining Left parties were headed by Leaders from KAMMA community. I think cast and community are the hidden agenda to these political parties.
Sagarika Ghose: caste matters in the south no doubt..the bjp in karnataka is more a lingayat party than a hindutva party..but look at UP and the kind of caste alliance that mayawati is attempting–she is trying to move beyond the dalit votebank. so maybe caste matters less than we think it does
February 26, 2009 at 1:06 PM
Ok chat is over guys,, she barely knows what she is talking and all her answers suggest she can even give up her life for the congress.
February 26, 2009 at 1:07 PM
Repasting, so that we will have a plain background to read!!!
The chat is over. Due to time constraints, all questions could not be answered. Thank you for joining.
ravikumar ck:I believe in southern part on india,still National parties doesn’t have upper hand,so that only southern states are going decide who will be our next PM.
Sagarika Ghose: not sure whether southern states will decide new pm. donlt thinkwe can have another deve gowda type PM as we had in 1996. it all depends on who wins big. if jayalaitha r mayawati come with a big haul of seats they will be in a position to dictate who they will want as PM. If Left comes in with even 30 seats they will still be able to dictate who they will suppport as PM. and this time they are unlikely to support manmohan singh!
vinod:Do you think BSP will be force tihis time or it is just hype centered around Mayawati?
Sagarika Ghose: The BSP question is a fascinating one. I have been a follower of the BSP for long time and know that it was the amazing and untiring organisational efforts of Kanshi Ram that has brought the BSP to where it is at the moment. there are many in the old bamcef cadres for example who are upset at her new social engineering. the BSP did well in delhi in these assembly elections–opening its seat account for the first time. these elections will be the first ttest of mayawati without kanshi ram.
naren:Is congress a more corrupt party than BJP, we saw Satyam and now Sukhram?? WIll that be a big disadvantage for the congress??
Sagarika Ghose: not sure how the satyam factor will play in andhra. Chandrababu naidu was once the poster boy of satyam too..also the anti-rajashekhar vote seems to be divided between TDP, TRS and Left. chandrababu has not really been able to capitalise on reddy’s weak points.
Narayanan S:Hi Sagarika. Good day to you. The real issue that must decide who comes to power, must be on the basis of who can solve the impending large scale unemployment due to the financial crisis, terrorism and external affairs management. The villages and small towns also must be made nodes and cornerstones of development, leveraging on agriculture, retailing etc, which is our strength. But alas! I think that chunk of our electorate today vote for the MP on local issues, his/her performance and of course religion cast and creed. So whoever forms the better/smarter alliance wins. Is this good in the long term.? what are your views
Sagarika Ghose: yes you are right, its all about alliances. at the moment the UPA alliance looks like a broader alliancethan the NDA so it might give them a better chance. it will be interesting to see what happens to the so called Third Front–their strategy centres around mayawati winning big and making a pitch for the prime ministerial chair. but there is still no core party around which a third front can form–so unlikely that there will be a deve gowda type PM as in 1996. but the king makers this time are jaya maya mamta and Left!
anwesha:Dear Ma’am first of all Congrats for getting the award. Keep it up! Now the question, do you really think that India will ever vote (Especially the cow belt) sans caste? does the larger part of bharat become so matured and educated who would vote on real issues such as bijli, sadak, pani, siksha, naukri and right of an individual?
Sagarika Ghose: Thanks anwesha! I hope the electorate is maturing. if you see the success of the recent chief ministers–be they shiela dixit, raman singh or shivraj singh chouhan in MP, all of them have won not necessarily on the basis of caste and community factors but because oftheir “pro development” image. If caste was so all important would Mayawati not have made huge inroads among dalits in Maharashtra or Punjab? clearly caste does not work all the time!
Jitendra Ajmera:Do you think any political party is going to make ‘security to women’ in India a political issue?
Sagarika Ghose: i wish they would! it would be a really positive agenda.):
Aditya Reddy:I am Aditya from Hyderabad and I would like to congratulate you for speaking against the perpetrators of the Mangalore Pub attack. At the same time I would like to say here that Congress is unnecessarily politicizing this incident in spite of the BJP having condemned them attack and also made arrests though the alleged attackers had to be released on bail as per the provisions of the law. On the other hand in Hyderabad the MIM party (they are in the UPA Alliance) regularly indulges in mindless violence like the attack on Taslima Nasreen, then the attack on the doctors at Niloufer Hospital and then firing at GHMC officials in Abids( All happened in the last year or so). The Ram Sena has apologized for the attack but the MIM (allies of the Congress) till date have neither condemned nor apologized for any of these incidents and in fact Akbaruddin Owaisi (the person in charge of MIM) had openly said that he is proud of what the MIM have done to Taslima. I did not hear Renuka Chowdhury, a self proclaimed feminist, speaking out against the attack on Taslima nor against the attack on junior doctors ( women were assaulted too ) in Niloufer Hospital. The so called secular or should I say communal Congress government in Hyderabad has not taken any strong action against the MLAs involved like Afsar Khan and Ahmed Pasha Quadri though these people have openly called for implementation of Fatwa (i.e beheading her) against Taslima. Renuka Chowdhury has called Ram Sena guys hoodlums and hooligans but she has not said these things about MIM , is she afraid of them.How can Congress party be called secular when they are going out of their way to please extremists like Owaisi . Would Manish Tiwari have remained quiet if Ram Sena or BJP attacked a hospital.
Sagarika Ghose: true, vandalism exists in all parties–congress and bjp.
VIKAS:According to you, Do you think it is not totally stupid to project seats in opinion polls, when most of the parties had not announced their candidates as u are saying caste, community (in rural areas), personality, charisma, criminal/public life of candidates 9in urban areas) matter a lot for most of the seats, potent rebel candidates have not emerged yet? My specific question is – What is the credibility of these polls?
Sagarika Ghose: we have only done a single opinion poll on the elections so far, and there will be no more polls. so you don’t have to get agitated about anymore polls!
sana:Hi sagarika, congrats on the FLO award.
persoanlly, do you think a sysetm of two-party works in india? isn’t a multi-party democracy adding to problem of plenty? your honest take?
Sagarika Ghose: thanks sana. thats a good question! lalu Yadav said recently that national parties are passe and its the regional parties which are the real high command. Today it is jayalalitha Mayawati TDP DMK Trinamol who hold the keys to forming a government. Frankly my idea of a political contest is a two party system battling it out on issues and ideology. politics, after all, atbthe end of the day is contest of ideas. But in India its all about local parties and their captive votes. which is why general election results are a derived result from state election results! In a country as diverse and huge as India, I guess a two party system is an impossibility!
Mehul Dixit:BJP is a party which has great support among the urban educated voters . Why is it then that news channels like yours have a leftist agenda which they have to aggressively pursue.
Sagarika Ghose: I would like to state on record that CNN IBN has no political leanings whatsoever. We are totally neutral. We are firmly committed to the ideals of the fourth estate by which we believe that its the duty of journalists to aggressively question all those in power and hold them accountable to the public. We have never been “pro congress” or “anti bjp” , but its is always easy to talk about “media bias” when you don;t like what the media is showing.
vinod:Do you agree that the Congress will suffer the most if BSP performs well in its stronghold of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab
Sagarika Ghose: in the last elections, the congress got big victories in Andhra, Bihar and Tamil nadu and delhi. these states make up 128 seats. such a result is going to be difficult to replicate. Most of the congress’s allies are upset that it is not going in for national alliances and putting pressure on the congress for seats as the NCP is doing in Maharashtra and the SP in UP. I don;t think a BSP performance will affect cong in andhra–rajasekhar reddy looks strong inspite of satyam–he’s called the narendra modi of andhra!
arunnair:good evening sagarika, but don t you think that barely 1/5 of the people who watch the english news channels (high income and upper middle class) actually go out and vote.. they barely make their voice heard as was seen in the last general elections?
Sagarika Ghose: i donlt think thats ecessarily true. I think there is a heightened interest in the political process, with campaigns like jaago re encouraging people to vote. a number of middle class professional people are also joining political parties. In terms of sheer numbers big rural caste lobbies will always have more political clout but its no longer the “secession of the successful” as far as the middle class is concerned.
Krishna Kilambi:Yes, in AP a lot goes by the caste. I find people defending all the mistakes done by the candidate from their caste when pitted against a person from a different caste. So performance and righteousness comes into picture only when two persons are from the same caste.
Sagarika Ghose: caste based politics is firmly entrenched in south india. in karnataka for example, the bjp is more a lingayat party than a party of “hindutva”. Chiranjeevi is relying on the kapu vote. the PMK, MDMK all have their backward-dalit vote banks.but I also think we must not underestimate the role of the political economy–as livelihood, employment, quality of life, infrastructure, facilities etc become important, then voters might vote for performing candidates rather than simply caste candidates.
vinod:If Congress manages 25 seats (Andhra), 25 seats (Tamil Nadu) and 25 (with trinamool in Bengal), it will be back in power.
Sagarika Ghose: Congress seems to be doing well in key states like andhra and kerala, basically because the opposition has not been able to exploit its weaknesses. if the cong-SP alliance works out, it could bring a rich harvest of votes in UP> don;t think congress will be able to form a government on its own–may need support from whoever is willing and in that case some compromises might have to be made about manmohan singh as prime ministerial candidate.
Avishek:Hi Except parts of North and central India do you think caste equations can play a decisive role in deciding winners in the coming elections. regarding the topic if you say that caste equations do not play a lesser role in electoral politics now, then how will you define Mayawati’s victory in the last assemble polls?
Sagarika Ghose: mayawati’s victory in the last polls was a great example of how even the BSP has moved beyond pure caste based politics. mayawati increasingly emphasises the “samta mulak samaj’ or “sarvajan samaj” rather than the bahujan samaj and has totally cut out her anti upper caste rehtoric. even the trademark “jai bheem” of the BSP has been done away with to attract muslim voters.So mayawti’s success was not about caste but happened because of a miraculous cross-caste alliance in which brahmins were given tickets by a dalit party!
Gaurav HG:It hardly matters for the urban cities. But some places where religion is priority does make a difference.
Sagarika Ghose: delimitation of constituencies will have a big impact on these elections. there are new urban dominated constituencies and this could mean that “bijli safak pani naukri padhai becomes more important than jati and dharam.
su:There is a belief that the Brahmin votes in U.P. will switch to BJP and that could be one reason why ‘Ram Mandir’ card is sought to be revived.
Sagarika Ghose: one of the reasons why the bjp is decling in UP is because upper castes are switching to mayawati. she is now giving increasing number of seats to brahmins who prefer to go with mayawati as they feel that she is on the winning streak. In UP, “ugta suraj ko sab pranam karte hai”. the alliance of kalyan singh and mulayam is bad news for the bjp. they now have an alliance with Ajit Singh–but doubtful whether this will bring too many rewards.
naren:Do you think BJP is a growing party and Congress is a shrink party? We saw BJP forming its first government in Karnataka and in UP they making a big comeback in the general elections whereas the Congress party is struggling to hold on to their earlier fortress?
Sagarika Ghose: i think the bjp is in a severe dilemma. It has only five allies at the moment, across India many parties are wary of tying up with it for fear of losing the muslim vote. Chandrababu naidu and mamta banerjee have left the NDA (mamta is undecided). the once 23 party NDA is now a five party rag tag bunch. plus, think the bjp is stuck for issues. it is now trying to say it is anti dynasty..but i think it knows that it simply does not have an emotive issue for this election, as Hindutva has run out of steam. thos sympathetic to the BJP have been put off by the violence unleashed by so called “hindu “goons and the manner in which Hindutva has simply become a excuse for criminal behaviour. this is sad.
Rishabh Parashar:If caste & community don’t matter anymore, then how come Messers Mayawati, Mulayam Singh, Laloo Prasad, Ramvilas Paswan etc are thriving in Indian politics ? Do they really have that kind of merit in them ?
Sagarika Ghose: Caste and community do matter, but perhaps they matter less than they used to. If you look at the assembly elections of 2008 in delhi rajasthan chattisgarh and madhya pradesh, voters seem to be opting for governance and a good record and seem to be voting for chief ministers who could bring them vikaas. Bit there’s no doubt that caste vote banks still remain strong among the “mandalite” leaders, although Nitish Kumar in Bihar is also projecting himself increasingly as a “pro development” chief minister
Sahil A Naqvi:Hi Sagarika, if we leave issues of caste and community aside, on what basis will elections be fought in our country,considering the fact that both the major rival political alliances have more or less same take on other national issues like economy, foreign policy, agriculture, etc.
Sagarika Ghose: This is a good question. in fact when it comes to policies there seems to be a concensus among political parties–although on the nuclear deal, national security, there is some policy difference. parties still don’t identify themselves with particular policy initiatives, whicht hey should. the upa has a lot to be proud of (in my opinion) in the NREGS, right to information act and forest dwellers act. but they have not tried to make theseinto voter issues.
suresh:Sagarika,if that was the reality then how do you explain the strong nucleus of supporters of regional satraps like Mulayam and Mayamemsahib who are basically caste based leaders.Even,Shri Amar Singh derives his strength essentially from his Kayasth community.Whenever the votes polled in a particlar segment of a constituency is analysed,mostly it reflects the caste/community profile the winning candidate is seen to represent.
Sagarika Ghose: mulayam and mayawati do come from caste based political movements. but mayawati’s bold new move is now to create a “samta mulak samaj” instead of a bahujan samaj. in the assembly elections she gave a large number of tickets to brahmins. in fact one of the reasons why the bjp is declining in UP is because brahmins are preferring to go with Mayawati instead of the BJP, because in UP after all, “ugta suraj ko kaun nahi pranam karega?”.so mayawati’s caste base is certainly no longer restricted to the bahujan samaj..
Aditya Reddy:When polls are conducted on orkut.com the BJP gets more than 60 percent of the votes , that means the urban rich youth (which consists of the pub goers) love the BJP. Also on the net you find a lot of people supporting BJP but few like Congress or the Left. Dont you think BJP is for the educated and most of the pub goers would vote for BJP if they vote.
Sagarika Ghose: thats a good question. i think the bjp is facing a real crisis in its identity. it was supposed to be the party of Shining India, of urban India, of upwardly mobile India. Now with the actions of the sene and other hindu outfits, the very class that was pro-BJP finds itself being targetted by elements within the party. there was the famous image of BJP leader pramod mahajan on a treadmill. suhsma swaraj’s daughter, vajpayee’s daughter are all extremely modern women. and am sure rahul mahajan goes to pubs! so the urban BJP voter must be a bit confused right now whether the bjp is a “party of the future” or not!
Ajay:It is people who are educated who say that it doesn’t matter. So considering that they hardly cast their ballot – Don’t you think it could still matter?
Sagarika Ghose: with delimitation of constituencies, there are many more urban constituencies in these elections. caste considerations might matter less when voters are more urban. however, in states like rajasthan the rivalries between castes like between jats and gujjars continue to have an important role in elections..i just think that instead of jati and dhram, nowadays bijli sadak paani naukri and padhai are becoming more important
sasikanth:I believe in india cast and community matters every where.In politics , these two will come in to first in giving MLA or MP tickets for elections.I hails from the state of Andhra pradesh.Where all the four dominant parties are represented by four casts. INC dominated by Reddy community , TDP by KAMMA or Chowdary , TRS by VELAMA and PRP by KAPU( Actor Chiranjeevi). The remaining Left parties were headed by Leaders from KAMMA community. I think cast and community are the hidden agenda to these political parties.
Sagarika Ghose: caste matters in the south no doubt..the bjp in karnataka is more a lingayat party than a hindutva party..but look at UP and the kind of caste alliance that mayawati is attempting–she is trying to move beyond the dalit votebank. so maybe caste matters less than we think it does
February 26, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Repasting, so that we will have a plain background to read!!!
The chat is over. Due to time constraints, all questions could not be answered. Thank you for joining.
ravikumar ck:I believe in southern part on india,still National parties doesn’t have upper hand,so that only southern states are going decide who will be our next PM.
Sagarika Ghose: not sure whether southern states will decide new pm. donlt thinkwe can have another deve gowda type PM as we had in 1996. it all depends on who wins big. if jayalaitha r mayawati come with a big haul of seats they will be in a position to dictate who they will want as PM. If Left comes in with even 30 seats they will still be able to dictate who they will suppport as PM. and this time they are unlikely to support manmohan singh!
vinod:Do you think BSP will be force tihis time or it is just hype centered around Mayawati?
Sagarika Ghose: The BSP question is a fascinating one. I have been a follower of the BSP for long time and know that it was the amazing and untiring organisational efforts of Kanshi Ram that has brought the BSP to where it is at the moment. there are many in the old bamcef cadres for example who are upset at her new social engineering. the BSP did well in delhi in these assembly elections–opening its seat account for the first time. these elections will be the first ttest of mayawati without kanshi ram.
naren:Is congress a more corrupt party than BJP, we saw Satyam and now Sukhram?? WIll that be a big disadvantage for the congress??
Sagarika Ghose: not sure how the satyam factor will play in andhra. Chandrababu naidu was once the poster boy of satyam too..also the anti-rajashekhar vote seems to be divided between TDP, TRS and Left. chandrababu has not really been able to capitalise on reddy’s weak points.
Narayanan S:Hi Sagarika. Good day to you. The real issue that must decide who comes to power, must be on the basis of who can solve the impending large scale unemployment due to the financial crisis, terrorism and external affairs management. The villages and small towns also must be made nodes and cornerstones of development, leveraging on agriculture, retailing etc, which is our strength. But alas! I think that chunk of our electorate today vote for the MP on local issues, his/her performance and of course religion cast and creed. So whoever forms the better/smarter alliance wins. Is this good in the long term.? what are your views
Sagarika Ghose: yes you are right, its all about alliances. at the moment the UPA alliance looks like a broader alliancethan the NDA so it might give them a better chance. it will be interesting to see what happens to the so called Third Front–their strategy centres around mayawati winning big and making a pitch for the prime ministerial chair. but there is still no core party around which a third front can form–so unlikely that there will be a deve gowda type PM as in 1996. but the king makers this time are jaya maya mamta and Left!
anwesha:Dear Ma’am first of all Congrats for getting the award. Keep it up! Now the question, do you really think that India will ever vote (Especially the cow belt) sans caste? does the larger part of bharat become so matured and educated who would vote on real issues such as bijli, sadak, pani, siksha, naukri and right of an individual?
Sagarika Ghose: Thanks anwesha! I hope the electorate is maturing. if you see the success of the recent chief ministers–be they shiela dixit, raman singh or shivraj singh chouhan in MP, all of them have won not necessarily on the basis of caste and community factors but because oftheir “pro development” image. If caste was so all important would Mayawati not have made huge inroads among dalits in Maharashtra or Punjab? clearly caste does not work all the time!
Jitendra Ajmera:Do you think any political party is going to make ’security to women’ in India a political issue?
Sagarika Ghose: i wish they would! it would be a really positive agenda.):
Aditya Reddy:I am Aditya from Hyderabad and I would like to congratulate you for speaking against the perpetrators of the Mangalore Pub attack. At the same time I would like to say here that Congress is unnecessarily politicizing this incident in spite of the BJP having condemned them attack and also made arrests though the alleged attackers had to be released on bail as per the provisions of the law. On the other hand in Hyderabad the MIM party (they are in the UPA Alliance) regularly indulges in mindless violence like the attack on Taslima Nasreen, then the attack on the doctors at Niloufer Hospital and then firing at GHMC officials in Abids( All happened in the last year or so). The Ram Sena has apologized for the attack but the MIM (allies of the Congress) till date have neither condemned nor apologized for any of these incidents and in fact Akbaruddin Owaisi (the person in charge of MIM) had openly said that he is proud of what the MIM have done to Taslima. I did not hear Renuka Chowdhury, a self proclaimed feminist, speaking out against the attack on Taslima nor against the attack on junior doctors ( women were assaulted too ) in Niloufer Hospital. The so called secular or should I say communal Congress government in Hyderabad has not taken any strong action against the MLAs involved like Afsar Khan and Ahmed Pasha Quadri though these people have openly called for implementation of Fatwa (i.e beheading her) against Taslima. Renuka Chowdhury has called Ram Sena guys hoodlums and hooligans but she has not said these things about MIM , is she afraid of them.How can Congress party be called secular when they are going out of their way to please extremists like Owaisi . Would Manish Tiwari have remained quiet if Ram Sena or BJP attacked a hospital.
Sagarika Ghose: true, vandalism exists in all parties–congress and bjp.
VIKAS:According to you, Do you think it is not totally stupid to project seats in opinion polls, when most of the parties had not announced their candidates as u are saying caste, community (in rural areas), personality, charisma, criminal/public life of candidates 9in urban areas) matter a lot for most of the seats, potent rebel candidates have not emerged yet? My specific question is – What is the credibility of these polls?
Sagarika Ghose: we have only done a single opinion poll on the elections so far, and there will be no more polls. so you don’t have to get agitated about anymore polls!
sana:Hi sagarika, congrats on the FLO award. persoanlly, do you think a sysetm of two-party works in india? isn’t a multi-party democracy adding to problem of plenty? your honest take?
Sagarika Ghose: thanks sana. thats a good question! lalu Yadav said recently that national parties are passe and its the regional parties which are the real high command. Today it is jayalalitha Mayawati TDP DMK Trinamol who hold the keys to forming a government. Frankly my idea of a political contest is a two party system battling it out on issues and ideology. politics, after all, atbthe end of the day is contest of ideas. But in India its all about local parties and their captive votes. which is why general election results are a derived result from state election results! In a country as diverse and huge as India, I guess a two party system is an impossibility!
Mehul Dixit:BJP is a party which has great support among the urban educated voters . Why is it then that news channels like yours have a leftist agenda which they have to aggressively pursue.
Sagarika Ghose: I would like to state on record that CNN IBN has no political leanings whatsoever. We are totally neutral. We are firmly committed to the ideals of the fourth estate by which we believe that its the duty of journalists to aggressively question all those in power and hold them accountable to the public. We have never been “pro congress” or “anti bjp” , but its is always easy to talk about “media bias” when you don;t like what the media is showing.
vinod:Do you agree that the Congress will suffer the most if BSP performs well in its stronghold of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab
Sagarika Ghose: in the last elections, the congress got big victories in Andhra, Bihar and Tamil nadu and delhi. these states make up 128 seats. such a result is going to be difficult to replicate. Most of the congress’s allies are upset that it is not going in for national alliances and putting pressure on the congress for seats as the NCP is doing in Maharashtra and the SP in UP. I don;t think a BSP performance will affect cong in andhra–rajasekhar reddy looks strong inspite of satyam–he’s called the narendra modi of andhra!
arunnair:good evening sagarika, but don t you think that barely 1/5 of the people who watch the english news channels (high income and upper middle class) actually go out and vote.. they barely make their voice heard as was seen in the last general elections?
Sagarika Ghose: i donlt think thats ecessarily true. I think there is a heightened interest in the political process, with campaigns like jaago re encouraging people to vote. a number of middle class professional people are also joining political parties. In terms of sheer numbers big rural caste lobbies will always have more political clout but its no longer the “secession of the successful” as far as the middle class is concerned.
Krishna Kilambi:Yes, in AP a lot goes by the caste. I find people defending all the mistakes done by the candidate from their caste when pitted against a person from a different caste. So performance and righteousness comes into picture only when two persons are from the same caste.
Sagarika Ghose: caste based politics is firmly entrenched in south india. in karnataka for example, the bjp is more a lingayat party than a party of “hindutva”. Chiranjeevi is relying on the kapu vote. the PMK, MDMK all have their backward-dalit vote banks.but I also think we must not underestimate the role of the political economy–as livelihood, employment, quality of life, infrastructure, facilities etc become important, then voters might vote for performing candidates rather than simply caste candidates.
vinod:If Congress manages 25 seats (Andhra), 25 seats (Tamil Nadu) and 25 (with trinamool in Bengal), it will be back in power.
Sagarika Ghose: Congress seems to be doing well in key states like andhra and kerala, basically because the opposition has not been able to exploit its weaknesses. if the cong-SP alliance works out, it could bring a rich harvest of votes in UP> don;t think congress will be able to form a government on its own–may need support from whoever is willing and in that case some compromises might have to be made about manmohan singh as prime ministerial candidate.
Avishek:Hi Except parts of North and central India do you think caste equations can play a decisive role in deciding winners in the coming elections. regarding the topic if you say that caste equations do not play a lesser role in electoral politics now, then how will you define Mayawati’s victory in the last assemble polls?
Sagarika Ghose: mayawati’s victory in the last polls was a great example of how even the BSP has moved beyond pure caste based politics. mayawati increasingly emphasises the “samta mulak samaj’ or “sarvajan samaj” rather than the bahujan samaj and has totally cut out her anti upper caste rehtoric. even the trademark “jai bheem” of the BSP has been done away with to attract muslim voters.So mayawti’s success was not about caste but happened because of a miraculous cross-caste alliance in which brahmins were given tickets by a dalit party!
Gaurav HG:It hardly matters for the urban cities. But some places where religion is priority does make a difference.
Sagarika Ghose: delimitation of constituencies will have a big impact on these elections. there are new urban dominated constituencies and this could mean that “bijli safak pani naukri padhai becomes more important than jati and dharam.
su:There is a belief that the Brahmin votes in U.P. will switch to BJP and that could be one reason why ‘Ram Mandir’ card is sought to be revived.
Sagarika Ghose: one of the reasons why the bjp is decling in UP is because upper castes are switching to mayawati. she is now giving increasing number of seats to brahmins who prefer to go with mayawati as they feel that she is on the winning streak. In UP, “ugta suraj ko sab pranam karte hai”. the alliance of kalyan singh and mulayam is bad news for the bjp. they now have an alliance with Ajit Singh–but doubtful whether this will bring too many rewards.
naren:Do you think BJP is a growing party and Congress is a shrink party? We saw BJP forming its first government in Karnataka and in UP they making a big comeback in the general elections whereas the Congress party is struggling to hold on to their earlier fortress?
Sagarika Ghose: i think the bjp is in a severe dilemma. It has only five allies at the moment, across India many parties are wary of tying up with it for fear of losing the muslim vote. Chandrababu naidu and mamta banerjee have left the NDA (mamta is undecided). the once 23 party NDA is now a five party rag tag bunch. plus, think the bjp is stuck for issues. it is now trying to say it is anti dynasty..but i think it knows that it simply does not have an emotive issue for this election, as Hindutva has run out of steam. thos sympathetic to the BJP have been put off by the violence unleashed by so called “hindu “goons and the manner in which Hindutva has simply become a excuse for criminal behaviour. this is sad.
Rishabh Parashar:If caste & community don’t matter anymore, then how come Messers Mayawati, Mulayam Singh, Laloo Prasad, Ramvilas Paswan etc are thriving in Indian politics ? Do they really have that kind of merit in them ?
Sagarika Ghose: Caste and community do matter, but perhaps they matter less than they used to. If you look at the assembly elections of 2008 in delhi rajasthan chattisgarh and madhya pradesh, voters seem to be opting for governance and a good record and seem to be voting for chief ministers who could bring them vikaas. Bit there’s no doubt that caste vote banks still remain strong among the “mandalite” leaders, although Nitish Kumar in Bihar is also projecting himself increasingly as a “pro development” chief minister
Sahil A Naqvi:Hi Sagarika, if we leave issues of caste and community aside, on what basis will elections be fought in our country,considering the fact that both the major rival political alliances have more or less same take on other national issues like economy, foreign policy, agriculture, etc.
Sagarika Ghose: This is a good question. in fact when it comes to policies there seems to be a concensus among political parties–although on the nuclear deal, national security, there is some policy difference. parties still don’t identify themselves with particular policy initiatives, whicht hey should. the upa has a lot to be proud of (in my opinion) in the NREGS, right to information act and forest dwellers act. but they have not tried to make theseinto voter issues.
suresh:Sagarika,if that was the reality then how do you explain the strong nucleus of supporters of regional satraps like Mulayam and Mayamemsahib who are basically caste based leaders.Even,Shri Amar Singh derives his strength essentially from his Kayasth community.Whenever the votes polled in a particlar segment of a constituency is analysed,mostly it reflects the caste/community profile the winning candidate is seen to represent.
Sagarika Ghose: mulayam and mayawati do come from caste based political movements. but mayawati’s bold new move is now to create a “samta mulak samaj” instead of a bahujan samaj. in the assembly elections she gave a large number of tickets to brahmins. in fact one of the reasons why the bjp is declining in UP is because brahmins are preferring to go with Mayawati instead of the BJP, because in UP after all, “ugta suraj ko kaun nahi pranam karega?”.so mayawati’s caste base is certainly no longer restricted to the bahujan samaj..
Aditya Reddy:When polls are conducted on orkut.com the BJP gets more than 60 percent of the votes , that means the urban rich youth (which consists of the pub goers) love the BJP. Also on the net you find a lot of people supporting BJP but few like Congress or the Left. Dont you think BJP is for the educated and most of the pub goers would vote for BJP if they vote.
Sagarika Ghose: thats a good question. i think the bjp is facing a real crisis in its identity. it was supposed to be the party of Shining India, of urban India, of upwardly mobile India. Now with the actions of the sene and other hindu outfits, the very class that was pro-BJP finds itself being targetted by elements within the party. there was the famous image of BJP leader pramod mahajan on a treadmill. suhsma swaraj’s daughter, vajpayee’s daughter are all extremely modern women. and am sure rahul mahajan goes to pubs! so the urban BJP voter must be a bit confused right now whether the bjp is a “party of the future” or not!
Ajay:It is people who are educated who say that it doesn’t matter. So considering that they hardly cast their ballot – Don’t you think it could still matter?
Sagarika Ghose: with delimitation of constituencies, there are many more urban constituencies in these elections. caste considerations might matter less when voters are more urban. however, in states like rajasthan the rivalries between castes like between jats and gujjars continue to have an important role in elections..i just think that instead of jati and dhram, nowadays bijli sadak paani naukri and padhai are becoming more important
sasikanth:I believe in india cast and community matters every where.In politics , these two will come in to first in giving MLA or MP tickets for elections.I hails from the state of Andhra pradesh.Where all the four dominant parties are represented by four casts. INC dominated by Reddy community , TDP by KAMMA or Chowdary , TRS by VELAMA and PRP by KAPU( Actor Chiranjeevi). The remaining Left parties were headed by Leaders from KAMMA community. I think cast and community are the hidden agenda to these political parties.
Sagarika Ghose: caste matters in the south no doubt..the bjp in karnataka is more a lingayat party than a hindutva party..but look at UP and the kind of caste alliance that mayawati is attempting–she is trying to move beyond the dalit votebank. so maybe caste matters less than we think it does
February 26, 2009 at 1:45 PM
Aditya,
Congrats, u squared her up in the MIM question.
February 26, 2009 at 2:09 PM
well, thanks , I had to do that and was great chatting with a dumbo
February 26, 2009 at 2:12 PM
Hmmmm,
Guys, do read this article, it is really really inspiring, Tarunji always rocks with his writtings…
http://ibnlive.in.com/blogs/tarunvijay/2387/53209/this-planet-needs-hindu-ethos.html
February 26, 2009 at 2:20 PM
Hi,
She does not know politcs.
February 26, 2009 at 3:26 PM
Sory, I didnt want to Participate in The Debate with suzane ghosh.
I seriously detest her and their team.
And her argument that they are Neutral is A Cruel Joke.
February 26, 2009 at 3:54 PM
Dear collague,
Just ignore them and here the results mega Opinion Poll for the SARAN MP constituency by the Total TV and great news is that Mr. LALU YADAV has lost this seats to NDA in his home turf Bihar and going by the trend it will complete sweep of Bihar by NDA .
All I can say that Votors are the most intelligent one to provide any cue that whom they will vote for and you will find whole lot of surprises this time too. Again in the backdrop of GE 2004 nobody could ever dreamt that congress will get that many seats and NDA & BJP will be routed, but it happened and rest is the history .
Just my one question why you all are giving that much importance to these Sagrika and INBNIATE and English Channels journalist as they all convent eduacted people who can’t afford to travel in the remote and country side . Do they konow even the little where India reside , I would Simple say not at all.
They just they follow the leaders and always report according to their promotor’s interest and this IBNIATE & other English channel journlist don’t know anything except the filtered news from here and there.
Just aks them, why these journalist not highlight issues of the livilihood of the poor tribals/slum dwellers / rags pickers/ the poorest be it Muslim or Hindu whosoever it may be will the be able to survive the onslaught of price rise , commercialisation of basic education, lack baisc health and other ammenties , plight of poor from the villages to cities and failue to control papulation.
Is this not the achievement of the mis rule of Congress 50 yrs since Indepedence ?
February 26, 2009 at 4:01 PM
suzane Ghosh Doesnt even know how many Parties are in NDA.
Shiv Sena, JD(U),BJD,AGP,RLD,HLD(R),Shiromani Akali Dal,Nagaland People’s Party
Probably, she should either update her Knowledge.
congress has : SP,RJD(Both Sinking),LJSP(1 Man Party),DMK(Another sinking ship),PMK(has already left Virtually) and some muslim parties in assam, hyderabad,and kerala state muslim league, National Council,NCP,RPI(Athavale), which is likely to lose.
INC-NCP-RPI(Athavale) is facing severe Anti-Incumbecny due to complete Non Performance.
Is she of the illussion that, All is well with UPA.
As Ritesh Bhai said, she Doesnt know Politics.
February 26, 2009 at 4:09 PM
Dear Anil, In Bihar Nitish has Brough Governance, The same in Orissa by Naveen.
Modi in Gujarat, Shivraj in MP, Raman Singh in Chattisgarh. I would also state, Raje in Rajasthan, however, infighting led to the defeat and congress didnt win anyway, though the media is stating so.
it seems, ibn is more interested in breaking up NDA Partners and including them under third front then the desperate communists and the oppurtinist congress.
ibn states, SS-BJP Alliance has come to an End and that NCP-SS-INC would ally.
is this Journalism?
probably, she needs to Learn ABC of the same.
Does she dare to state, MOIM is communal?
February 26, 2009 at 4:19 PM
Dear Arun, That Article Written By Sri Tarun Vijay , A Right Leniant Nationalist is Only A Token Gesture by communal news network – islamochurchist broadcasters news to Keep The Hindutva Viewers soften the stand against ibn.
But, We Wont be fooled by these cannaving lowlives.
Post 2009 May, when BJP Led Government is formed, RSS should Launch A Nationalist English News Channel that will expose these bastards and presents True Version.
Once that happens, ibn/ndtv/timesnow would All lose their viewership.
February 26, 2009 at 4:20 PM
Well said Adi Narayana Reddy Gaaru, “Great Chat with Dumbo”
lmao.
February 26, 2009 at 5:36 PM
Hey Raj,
If you like Tarun Vijay’s writing here is another article for you. This one came in TOI. I am a big fan of his writings and i read all of his writings!!!
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Columnists/Tarun-Vijay/The-new-proselytizers/articleshow/4107647.cms
February 26, 2009 at 6:03 PM
The HINDU, Which Never says anything Possitive about BJP, has today written that The MotorCycle Rally by BJP in Tirupati flagged off by Former BJP Tirupati MP, N Venkataswamy was Highly Impressive. The Rally WOuld Culminate Tommorrow at Madanapalle where, Sri Advani Ji is Likely To Address The Meeting along with Ananth Kumar, KrishnamRaju, Actor Naresh(Whom BJP has Finalized for Hindupur Lok Sabha Constituency, because of which I initially Banked on This Seat before the entry of NTR’s Son Balakrishna. However, BJP is also planning to field Him against Chiru, but that would be Futile),Shanta Reddy and ofcourse Our Very Own Venkaiah Naidu. There are also reports of B S Yeddiyurappa Attending The Rally.
February 26, 2009 at 6:25 PM
I BELIEVE SOMEONE HERE IS MEETING WITH ARUN JAITLEY. IF POSSIBLE ASK JAITLEY WHEN THE BJP WILL PROMOTE AN ENGLISH NEWS CHANNEL WHICH IS PRO BJP AND PRO INDIA . ASK JAITLEY IF THERE ARE ANY PLANS IN THE ANVIL FOR SUCH A PROJECT. I AM SURE THE NEWS CHANNEL WILL BREAK ALL TRP RATINGS AS MOST URBAN RICH AND MIDDLE CLASS YOUTH AND NON YOUTH TOO SUPPORT BJP . WE CAN HAVE JOURNALISTS LIKE SWAPAN DAS GUPTA , CHANDAN MITRA, ARUN SHOURIE, TAVLEEN SINGH, NALINI SINGH, TARUN VIJAY, VIR SANGHVI , SUHEL SETH TOO IS NOW PRO MODI , AND OF COURSE WE CAN RECRUIT A LOT OF YOUTH WHO ANYWAY WOULD BE PRO BJP.
WE NEED AN ENGLISH NEWS CHANNEL MAN THOUGH I THINK NDTV AND TIMES NOW ARE FAIRLY OK COMPARED TO IBN
February 26, 2009 at 6:26 PM
RAJ CAN YOU GIVE THE LINK OF THE HINDU NEWSPAPAER
February 26, 2009 at 6:31 PM
TamilNadu is Probably The Only State till Now that is keeping everyone guessing about Alliances.
With Jaya and PMK Running The Guessing Game.
Jaya is keeping the left on the hooke by openly inviting congress
PMK is Most likely to Desert UPA.
Vaiko would find it extremely Hard to be in The Company of Jaya who is against Ealam.
Captain on one day states He is ready for Alliance with A National Party and on The Other gives A Call for All Parties in TN to Bouycott 2009 Polls
BJP is simply waiting on how The Alliances shape up
DMK is struggling hard to hold on to alliance and impress congress
The Only Parties that seem unperturbed are VCK and Puthiya Tamilagam as They have Not much base beyond Their Constituencies.
February 26, 2009 at 6:32 PM
until Mid March, Nothing can be said about Alliances in TN.
February 26, 2009 at 6:35 PM
Dear Adi Narayana Reddy Gaaru, plz e-mail me at : yavsrajesh@gmail.com
my system Never delivers the post, when I send a Link.
February 26, 2009 at 6:35 PM
http://www.thehindu.com/2009/02/26/stories/2009022651240300.htm
February 27, 2009 at 9:24 AM
VIR SANGHVI… no no this name is to be removed from the list u wrote..
He is a Manio Bakth….
February 27, 2009 at 10:14 AM
Also, There is NO Place for Tavleen Singh.
She is A Communist.
February 27, 2009 at 10:45 AM
Nava Telangana Merged with PRP.
This would only Weaken The so Grand Alliance.
February 27, 2009 at 10:52 AM
Hmmm,
Not really, she bashes all parties but at heart she is Pro-BJP
February 28, 2009 at 8:12 AM
It seems, The BJP’s Vijat Sankalp Yatra Rally at Madanapalle in The Rayalaseema Region was Huge Success.
Even TheHindu, which tries to belittle BJP has mentioned as Advaniji Addressing A Huge Crowd.
February 28, 2009 at 10:56 AM
Dear Raj,
What is your estimate on vote % of PRP, TDP-TRS Alliance , Congress & BJP, in 3 regions respectively. Coastal Andhra , Rayalseema & Telengana for LS & State Assembly.
Also, no other online news website seems to mention BJP rallies
other than a small article in Hindu , I hope people get come news though either print, media or radio.
February 28, 2009 at 11:24 AM
Dear AK, it’s Not easy to estimate vote percentage for any Party as congress would poll the maximum number of votes but, yet may lag behind a lot in terms of seats.
Reason : BJP,TRS and PRP vote shares are concentrated.whereas, that of TDP and INC Votes are spread.
Further, still it is Not clear whose votes would PRP cut into and also, there is No clue of Cross Voting between Assembly and Lok Sabha Polls.
The Only Cross Voting if any one can see is Between PRP in Assembly and BJP in Lok Sabha in The Urban Areas of Coastal Districts.
But, I can say, which Regions are Strongest for Each Party/Alliance.
Strength of BJP : Highly Concentrated around Hyderabad Region and extended to Most Parts of Telangana, except for southernmost regions of Telangana. In Addition, Visakhapatnam and Vijayawada and some more Urban Centres in Coastal AP and some sections of Southern Rayalaseema(Here in The Rayalaseema Region, I am NOT Mentioning Winnability, but, only of being impressive in select assembly constituencies in The southern Rayalaseema Region)
Grand Alliance: Derives Strength from Rural Areas of Telangana. However, in The Regions where CPM candidates are fielded, TRS Cadre would work to defeat them as CPM is dead against Bifurcation.
communists Dont have strength anywhere in AP. Hence, beyond The Rural Telangana, Grand Alliance will be a cropper except for Rayalseema.
congress: spread evenly all over the state. will see severe reverses in Telangana Region. But, Derives Strength in The Rayalaseema and south coastal constituencies.
PRP: Coastal AP. Devender Goud Party’s merger with PRP might act as a spoiler for Grand Alliance (But, may not affect adversely, since goud has NO Cadre) and to some extent in The Non Hyderabad region for BJP.
February 28, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Dear AK, Eenaadu NewsPaper has covered Advani Ji’s Rally on Front Page.
That is more than Enough.
February 28, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Dear Raj,
The reason I wanted to know about vote % was coz I am having feeling that in many places outside Telengana it might be a direct fight between Congress & TDP. I am not sure if PRP will cross 70 seats in assembly.
Coz I feel ,between TDP & PRP, PRP is more likely to support BJP post election.
February 28, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Well, PRP probably may Not win more than 70 assembly seats or may win only about 50 in 2009 Assembly Polls. But, remember, in UttarAndhra(consisting of 35 Assemblh Segments) and Konaseema( consisting of about 50 Assembly Segments) PRP would Win A Majority of Them.
Here, It would be A Fierce Traingular Battle Between PRP,TDP and congress.
congress is more likely to lose here.
February 28, 2009 at 12:13 PM
The Biggest Thorn coming between PRP and BJP is chiru’s political advisor, dr.p.mithra, the communist mole.
March 1, 2009 at 8:17 AM
Dear Arun,
I am eager to hear about your the meeting with Shri Arun Jaitley ji. Did you get an opportunity to share your views with him ?
March 1, 2009 at 12:48 PM
Hi all,
If Brahmin cast vote to Mukhtar against Joshi. It will be shame for
Brahmins in all over India.
March 1, 2009 at 12:55 PM
Which Mukthar are You Speaking of Ritesh Ji?
March 1, 2009 at 1:06 PM
I hOPE you arent speaking of Mukthar Abbas Naqvi.
March 1, 2009 at 1:16 PM
oh I understand now.
Dear Ritesh Bhai, No Hindu, let alone be a Brahmin would ever vote for Mukhtar ansari
March 1, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Hi Raj,
Talking about Mukhtar Ansari. Brahmin and upper cast(more than 80%) in Rampur will cast vote to Mukhtar Abbas Nakvi. I have doubt about Muslims in Rampur.
Would they cast vote to Mukhtar Abbas Nakvi.
March 1, 2009 at 5:37 PM
Guys
All my friends from AP are telling CON party is in big trouble. The had 35 seats in 2004. They may not get more than 15-17this time in Parliament. That is a good news.
March 1, 2009 at 10:15 PM
Hi Manoj,
With the so manu parties in the field, what do ur friends from AP think of possible/likely outcome in terms of seats in both Assembly and LS.
And in case of fractured verdict in Assembly,
who will seek BJP votes, PRP or TDP
or is it possible for PRP to go with TDP
March 2, 2009 at 12:36 AM
ONE MORE KICK TO CONGRESS IN AP!!!!
Today the death of MRPS activist and city leader by setting himself ablaze in Gandhi bhavan for the congres cheating of Madigas has put one more hole in the vote bank of congress. They have cheated Madigas and used them as a weapon against TRS after 2004. The SC ST population of Telangana is roughly more than 1/4th. If separate Telangana is formed by constitution ST get 12 percent reservation and madigas get their share of 15 percent. So for all reasons, 80 to 90 percent of the SC and ST (who are traditionally with communists also) will go with Mahakutami (as PRP chief has a mala leader and backing in andhra he cant support madigas so his support base in telangana is also being dented). Also PRP is taking all the wrong steps in the leadership of Dr. Mitra a failed communist.
For all good reasons one can say for sure in telangana out of the 17 seats,Congress and MIM at best could win 1(0 +1) to 4(3+1). But i wish the parties work out a strategy to defeat MIM as well and give the Congress MIM communal combine a big ZERO.In andhra it is anybodies guess. It could be a three way split,or if people vote strategically to stop TRS from being the king maker they would vote for TDP (Like they voted in 2004 to congress to stop a TRS supported congress Govt) giving TDP half to 2/3 of the seats in andhra which could be 12 to 18 . So Congress would anyway end up with much less than 37 support it had in 2004(Congress, TRS, Commies, MIM) and could lose the first 3 and have only 7 total in the state at the best.
March 2, 2009 at 12:48 AM
Dear friends there is one site called politicsparty who is doing false propogonda. My request to all my friends here is just send a mail to
politicsparty@gmail.com with this in subject: Please read promiseofreason.com for some real analysis.
thanks friends.Hope reading this site gives the goebble some intelligence.
March 2, 2009 at 9:35 AM
As per Vikas Ji, a few disgruntled muslims would vote for BJP in Rampur
March 2, 2009 at 9:36 AM
Dear Raja Reddy Gaaru, Madigas Never voted for congress. so, I dont think, it is actually a dent in congress votebank in AP.
March 2, 2009 at 9:37 AM
Both PRP and TDP will Lobby for BJP in The state post 2009 May Polls.
March 2, 2009 at 9:39 AM
Omar, politicsparty.com consists of self styled analysts.
They dont have consistancy
March 2, 2009 at 9:44 AM
Dear Raja Reddy Gaaru, This Time TDP Would lose The Srikakulam Parliamentary seat to PRP. Also, in UttarAndhra of the five Parliamentary seats, PRP would win 2(Vizianagaram and Srikakulam),BJP–1(Visakhapatnam),TDP-1(Anakapalle) and the remaining Bobbili(ST) would see a fierce Battle between Congress-TDP-PRP.
March 2, 2009 at 9:53 AM
Sonia Maino and congress losing sheen in AP.
Despite allout efforts by congress to bring in as many as 5 lakh people to sonia’s meetings in AP in The Khammam District by union minister renuka choudary and others, only 2 lakh people attended maino’s meeting.
This shows, congress would lose even in Khammam
March 2, 2009 at 9:58 AM
I just wish no party/alliance get majority in AP assembly. And chances of that happening are high, but I am also scared that , TRS & Left might join Congress post poll.
Left will never form govt with BJP. It will be interesting for sure.
March 2, 2009 at 10:06 AM
umn..
it seems congress is trying to romp in PMK and DMDK along with DMk for TN Lok Sabha Polls.
While Nothing can be said about PMK remaining with UPA.
The Big question is will Captain fight elections jointly with pmk and dmk?
March 2, 2009 at 10:11 AM
BJP is lagging behind in TN.
It seems DMDK and DMK are planning to accept seat sharing formula with congress and PMK.
In That case, It would be Troubles for BJP in TN.
March 2, 2009 at 10:40 AM
What is venkaiah Naidu doing ? he is not even contesting elections .
TN is such a crucial state, I wish Shri Arun Jaitley or Smt Sushma Swaraj ji had taken in charge of TN.
If BJP can’t get DMDK, then no one else will join the alliance…
March 2, 2009 at 10:41 AM
Hi,
BJP should have done work hard in four states(AP,TN,WB,Kerala).
I am unable to understand, Why BJP has done so big mistake. BJP his
having top leaders, money and everything. Till now BJP has not
developed strong base in four states.
March 2, 2009 at 10:53 AM
Dear Ritesh, BJP has A Strong Base in Karnataka And Parts of Telangana. Can Spring Surprises in Kerala too this time Around.
TN is A Cause of Concern.
DMDK has Not yet Joined Hands with Congress/UPA.
But, Options are being Weighed.
gulam and moily have met captain vijaykanth.
AIADMK has A Solid VoteBank of 35% and therefore, she is Not bothered about Alliances.
If DMDK allies with UPA, JJ would increase her Vote % as Angry DMDK Loyalists would go back to AIADMK.
BJP at the most has a Vote Bank of 3% in TN as per previous electoral Data.
Even in The Inproved Scenario, BJP doesnt have more than 6-7% of votebase in TN.
BJP is foolishly Banking on Vaiko to mediate Alliance with AIADMK.
Even if BJP allies with AIADMK and MDMK, BJP would be morally devasted as Ramathapuram and Sivaganga seats would Not be Given to BJP by JJ.
March 2, 2009 at 10:53 AM
Hi,
BJP should go alone and try to create own base
in four states.
March 2, 2009 at 10:58 AM
In Karnataka BJP Created A Solid Base and Has Consolidated.
In Keral BJP has A Base of 12% and is likely to Improve this time around.
In Telangana Region, BJP has potential and the same in Urban Centres of Coastal Andhra.
But, in TN, The Situation is Not so Healthy for BJP if it goes alone. Venkaiah Naidu should form Alliance with either DMDK or AIADMK(By Swallowing Pride).
Though Alliance with AIADMK would only make BJP more Vulnerableand let JJ dictate terms.
March 2, 2009 at 11:26 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP should go alone in AP,Kerala,WB,TN. But indirectly
(by fielded candidate which will cut vote for Congress and
Left).
1. In WB
BJP should field candidates in all seats. But in 10 seats
BJP should help Mamata by fielding weak candidates which will cut
left votes.
2. In TN
BJP should field candidates in all seats. But in 10 seats
BJP should help Mamata by fielding weak candidates which will cut
congress and DMK votes.
3. In AP
BJP should field candidates in all seats. But in 10 seats
BJP should help Mamata by fielding weak candidates which will cut
congress and Left votes.
4. IN Keral
BJP should field candidates in all seats.
This way BJP may make Congress weak.
March 2, 2009 at 11:27 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP should go alone in AP,Kerala,WB,TN. But indirectly
(by fielded candidate which will cut vote for Congress and
Left).
1. In WB
BJP should field candidates in all seats. But in 10 seats
BJP should help Mamata by fielding weak candidates which will cut
left votes.
2. In TN
BJP should field candidates in all seats. But in 10 seats
BJP should help AIADMK and DMDK by fielding weak candidates which will cut
congress and DMK votes.
3. In AP
BJP should field candidates in all seats. But in 10 seats
BJP should help TDP/PRP by fielding weak candidates which will cut
congress and Left votes.
4. IN Keral
BJP should field candidates in all seats.
This way BJP may make Congress weak.
March 2, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Dear Ritesh, Please understand that in TN, BJP Cant go alone in this election.
In AP, except for The Seats I have Mentioned Earlier, BJP Candidates are Weak.
In West Bengal too, BJP Candidates are Not strong in All The Regions except for a few that can be mentioned such as Darjeeling, New Japlpaigur( as Gorkhaland Janmukhti Morcha has decided to rally behind BJP),DumDum,Barasat,KrishnaNagar,Malda North and May be Kolkatta North.
In All other seats, BJP is Not strong though some may argue that BJP has polled well in Joynagar and Midnapur. However, This time, in these areas it would be Advantage trinamool
March 2, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Hi Raj,
This BJP will get more than 20% votes in 12 constituency of Kerala.
BJP has chance to win(more than 30%votes) 2 to 5 seats in Kerala.
March 2, 2009 at 12:18 PM
Ritesh,
Are you from kerala? Kerala BJP for me appears to be hit by factionalism
March 2, 2009 at 12:23 PM
Hi,
Left and cogress are having more problem than BJP in Kerala.
March 2, 2009 at 12:25 PM
Hi Raj,
Now there is no alliance in WB(Mamta is with congress yesterday night it was annnouned)
and TN(she is with left). If possible then BJP should make alliance.
March 2, 2009 at 12:41 PM
Hi,
After elcection AIADMK,TMC and TDP/PRP will support BJP in centre.
BJP should not make them very weak.
March 2, 2009 at 12:42 PM
Dear Arun, it seems, for The Time Being , BJP has settled the issue of factionalism in Kerala.
And Ritesh ji is from Eastern UP now living in Hyderabad.
March 2, 2009 at 12:44 PM
Dear Arun, I Never banked on Mamta and also, Alliance with Mamta would harm BJP and Help Congres.
On The Otherhand, A Congress-mamta alliance will divide communal muslim vote between cpm and upa while, Hindu Vote would come to BJP in Bengal.
Therefore, it’s Advantage BJP due to mamta joining upa in WB
March 2, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Nothing can be said about TN politics until the last moment.
DMDK may go with Left or with upa.
Nothing is finalized.
only known alliance in TN is between DMK and congress.
it’s the media which has already predicted a congress-dmk-dmdk-pmk-vck alliance not the parties involved.
March 2, 2009 at 12:47 PM
Though I personally Dont prefer BJP going with AIADMK, it seems, BJP is working on All Channels to forge an Alliance with Jaya.
March 2, 2009 at 12:56 PM
Hi,
BJP should get advantage in WB. Indireactly BJP should help TMC in 10 seats.
And in remaining seats(32) BJP should try to defeat left,congress and Mamta.
March 2, 2009 at 1:14 PM
BJP Should NOT help anyone anywhere in This Election who are Not with BJP
March 2, 2009 at 2:06 PM
Hi,
After election they will come with BJP. But in Assembly and Municipal
BJP should not have any alliance with anybody.
March 2, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Azharruddin to contest from Nizamabad as in Hyderabad congress would work for MIM’s success and in Secunderabad and Malkajigiri, muslim population is less.
If Azhar contests from Nizamabad where Telangana sentiment is strong, TRS would lose muslim votes.
Madhu Yakshi Goud(The Present Nizamabad MP) who is cutting swords with ysr is likely to Join PRP(The Devender Goud Link). If BJP worksd Hard, Nizamabad can come into BJP’s Kitty
March 2, 2009 at 3:57 PM
15th April to 16th May, 5 phases elections
March 2, 2009 at 3:58 PM
sorry 13th may
March 2, 2009 at 4:05 PM
umn… TN Govt. slams NSA Against Vaiko
It has to be seen, whether He would be Imprisoned during The Polls.
DMK can do anything to suppress Him as He is The Biggest Threat to karunanidhi-congress combine.
March 2, 2009 at 4:11 PM
it is good.. it will create sympathy for Vaiko!!!
March 2, 2009 at 4:13 PM
Hi All,
Now election dates are annouced. Good thing is that part of the election will be held while N Gopalaswamy will be in office.
March 2, 2009 at 4:25 PM
Regarding TN : There is NO News from Captain that He Would be Part of UPA, it’s only The congress news networks and other pro-congress media that are projecting it to be.
Most likely DMDK-VCK-Left are to form an Alliance. Congress has Categorically Stated, They Wont accept VCK though the latter mentioned that they would fight elections in alliance with DMK. since karu depends on congress, he wont jettison congress for VCK.
Left cant trust AIADMK as Jayalalithaa has given jitters to Left by extending Olive Branch to inc which has been rejected.
BJP on The otherhand is using Vaiko and Cho as Channels to forge alliance with AIADMK.
PMK is another cat on Wall.
PMK and DMDK wont go together.
Therefore, it has to be seen whether PMK would remain in UPA or will Join Jaya Front.
as of now, The Only Concrete Alliance in TN is between DMK and INC
No One else knows, who is with whom.
March 2, 2009 at 4:27 PM
Yes Dear Arun
in 2004, Vaiko Singlehandedly Defeated AIADMK-BJP Combine in TN
This time around, He would certainly Be A Force. BJP should Ally with Him. Also, MDMK has always been Sympathetic with BJP
March 2, 2009 at 4:47 PM
oh The Latest News : Another Setback for BJP in TN.
It Seems, AIADMK-MDMK-CPM-CPI Alliance is Firm and AIADMK and MDMK have formed Committees to Discuss Seat Sharing.
March 2, 2009 at 4:52 PM
its good, as long as congress and DMK losses.. i dont mind even the PMK winning!!!!
March 2, 2009 at 4:56 PM
PMK likely to remain in UPA
Ramadoss meets karunanidhi in Hospital.
It leaves BJP and DMDK as Individual Players.
NO Word from Captain on Alliance
March 2, 2009 at 5:02 PM
The AIADMK-MDMK-Left combine has A Solid Votebase of 40-45% in TN
March 3, 2009 at 10:54 AM
deve gowda categorically ruled out any alliance with congress. but,still, congres news network would augur for inc-jd(s) alliance
March 3, 2009 at 10:55 AM
The eight party third front consistes of : CPM, CPI, RSP,Forward Block,JD(S),AIADMK,TDP.TRS.
The Good News is MDMK is Not being counted by Third front leaders
March 4, 2009 at 7:48 PM
BJP to decide on TN Poll Strategy Next Week on 12Th of March.
March 4, 2009 at 9:18 PM
In Tamil nadu if DMDK face the election with BJP they can win around 10-15 seats. If they Join DMK , then DMDK future is over.
March 4, 2009 at 9:31 PM
I dont think DMDK would join hands with DMK and PMK
both DMK and PMK are likely to remain in UPA
However, MDMK should come out of AIADMK Alliance and Join Hands with BJP and DMDK
BJP-DMDK-MDMK Alliance can Win about 12-15 Lok Sabha Seats(Best Possible case) or atleast some 10-12 Lok Sabha Seats(In Triangular Battle)
March 5, 2009 at 3:29 AM
Hi Raj,
Who told youe there is no support for tdp….. and y r u saying its a kamma party…. and y ur not saying … congress is reddy party in andhra. and prp is kapu party
March 5, 2009 at 3:35 AM
He has said that SAI, u need to read his earlier comments.
PRP is struggling to find a common symbol. It has offer from NCP, but doesn’t want , as post poll it will support NDA. However at the same time Chiru wants to test his own strength before aligning with BJP.
If he choose JD(U) symbol, he will send out signal that he is part of NDA. He is in tough spot.
I feel in light of above he might formally take JD(U) symbol and become part of NDA.
March 5, 2009 at 6:58 AM
NOPE AK Bhai. He Wont.
Dr. Mithra Wont allow that to Happen.
If Sai wants to accuse me of being Anti-TDP let Him. I hav e NO Issue with the same.
And Dear Sai, I did mention that PRP is A Kaapu Based Party.
In AP, it’s still Not clear.
The MRPS Which is fighting for Categorization of Sheducled Castes in AP has Decided to Decisively Vote Against congress. since, The SC unit of PRP is Managed by Leader from Maala Community and Chiru has NOT Taken any Decision on SC Categorization(A Hot Topic in Andhra Politics),The Maadigaas who constitute over 50% of Scheduled castes(yet,largely underprivilaged as compared to Maala’s) would rally behind TDP as TDP has firmly stood for SC Categorization.
BJP too has Confirmed it’s Position on SC Categorization but as BJP’s impact in AP is Not so Large, The Maadiga community is by and large likely to remain with TDP.
BJP should atleast in Lok Sabha Polls field Maadiga Leaders in SC Reserved seats.
March 5, 2009 at 2:30 PM
Latest News on KarimNagar in Telangana Region of AP : TRS is planning to Field VijayShanti from KarimNagar. This will lead to a Direct Fight between BJP(Ch Vidya Sagar Rao) vs Grand Alliance.
This may Move Muslim votes with Congress as vijayshanti is still A BJP sympathizer. Also, PRP would field a weak candidate here to Defeat VijayShanti as Chiru Fans Hate her for the vitriolic comments she made against Chiru.
BJP should do A Planned Campaign and Keep The Momentum Going here to Win This Seat.
March 5, 2009 at 3:10 PM
As Per Latest News, it seems, The People of Telangana Are Moving closer to BJP as Pro-Telangana Voters feel BJP to be The Only Part that will make Their Dream Realize.
But, what Bemuses me is : BJP is Strongest in Hyderabad Region, where The Telangana Sentiment is Non Existent!!!!
March 5, 2009 at 3:21 PM
From Zaheerabad, fareeduddin of congress is seeking Nomination. This Parliamentary Constituency is Largely Rural and Borders Karnataka and has Conisderable muslim population and Has Huge Telangana Sentiment.
Hence, BJP should be Able to Bank on This Seat.
The Good News is The Grand Alliance is praising The Tyranic Nizam Rule for muslim votes while BJP(Whose Rallies in Telangana were A Huge Success) is seeking in The name of Sardar Patel, Who Liberated Hyderabad from Nizam’s Autocratic and Tyrannic Rule and Saved The Lives of Patriots!!!
March 5, 2009 at 8:15 PM
In Hyderabad University Elections, ABVP, The Student Wing of BJP Swept All The Posts.
But, still News Channels have underplayed it.
This Shows, BJP is Strong in Telangana in General and Hyderabad Region in Particular with Respect to Andhra Pradesh. Particularly among the Students even Post Implementation of Mandal. That is, Even among OBCs, BJP is The Most Favoured Party amongst The Youth.
The Image that BJP is A Party of North Indians as propogated by media will Not buy votes for Anti-BJP guys anymore.
BJP is Today, The Only All India Party
March 6, 2009 at 9:31 AM
It looks like BJP will draw blank in TN and Kerala this time also…Karnataka BJP will get at least 20 seats (May go up to 26).AP-BJP may get 1-2 seats at the most…..
AIADMK-Left alliance will get more than 30 seats in Tamil Nadu.
TDP-TRS-Left will sweep AP.
LDF and UDF will get equal number of seats in Kerala.
March 6, 2009 at 2:30 PM
Vijayakanth will no more after this election.
Can he stand alone without any alliance?
March 6, 2009 at 3:56 PM
Its Hard for Him(Captain) to survive if He decides to Go Alone.
The 8.5% Votes He recieved, He would lose and that would go back to Amma
He is following The Advice of Punrotti Ramachandran, who is dissuading Captain from joining NDA
March 7, 2009 at 3:29 PM
i know that well DMK is strengthen their vote bank day by day , so NOW a days DMK is the single largest party in tamil nadu afte dmk admk then pmk mdmk communist , capatain is not doing any good politics in tamil nadu after he won in virudhachalam , now they are woring why we elected this fellow , if he win upcoming elections MP , he will not do any for tamil nadu after he win in elections he will act movie , he can come as cm for tamil nadu , this will never happen
March 7, 2009 at 7:47 PM
Ravi, dmk is losing day by day.
There is Total Anarchy in TN.
AIADMK is The Single Lergaest Party in TN in Terms of Vote Share with A Solid 35% Vote Bank
March 7, 2009 at 8:42 PM
Very true Raj and that is the precise reason BJP doesn’t want to form a third frond in TN, as this will result in more seats for Congress-DMK alliance.
Post election AIADMK will support NDA, as no way AIADMK will be alongwith DMK, whom congress won’t stranded in the middle (They are in power sharing in TN).
Third Front is a cropper it has just TDP, TRS, AIADMK & JD(S) other than Communist.
Out of this lot, I am really doubtful if JD(S) will increase its tally of 3. In all likelyhood, they might draw a blank in these elections.
If TDP-TRS , falls short of 20-30 MLAs in state assembly, it has no where to go except BJP, which will win ~ 30-40 seats in Telengana ( ~25% voteshare).
That leaves AIADMK, which will be more comfortable joining NDA , rather than to support Mayavati (Remember she BSP can become big challenge in TN because of large Dalit votebase ).
Post election
Communist —> UPA
JD(S) (if they win any) –> UPA
TDP-TRS –> NDA (Either join or support from outside in lieu for support at state level)
AIADMK –> NDA (Most likely to join NDA & Govt)
Others who can jump any side post election
—————————————————————-
TC — Can move to NDA (on pretext they won’t be on side with communist)
PMK,MDMK,etc –> They can go anywhere
BSP –> Mayavati will try to become PM otherwise can support UPA – SP or NDA
All Others — > Will go with anyone ruling the center.
March 7, 2009 at 9:02 PM
Exactly AK Bhai and BJP Should Concentrate 3-4 seats a Lot in TN.
It seems, Advani Ji’s Rally at Nagercoil is A Huge Success!!!
Therefore, Kanniyakumari,Coimbatore,SouthChennai and Ramanathapuram are The Seats BJP should Focus on.
AIADMK if it ropes in PMK as well since DMDK is likely to join UPA, then it would be A Clean Sweep for AIADMK Front in TN.
Captain is Bound to lose, if He joins forces with congress and DMK.
People would Lose trust in Him as He has gone back on His word that He would have NO Truck with DMK/AIADMK.
March 7, 2009 at 9:05 PM
Soma, One cant Rule out BJP in TN and Kerala This time. A Lot has changed over the past 3 years, and in particularly the last 2 years in these states.
March 7, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Hi,
BJP has not created sufficient party base in TN. otherwise it was not difficult to win seats in TN.
March 7, 2009 at 9:43 PM
Hi,
BJP and BJD alliances has failed.
March 7, 2009 at 9:44 PM
Hi,
BJP should not compromise with own base in Orissa.
March 7, 2009 at 9:52 PM
oh, Thatz Devasting.
Is it Formal?
are They going Independently?
If that is so, Congress would be Jubiliant.
It’s A Grave Mistake by BJD if it comes out of NDA
Sure, BJP would lose a lot in Orissa, but, BJD too will lose power to christian congress
March 7, 2009 at 9:57 PM
Ritesh Bhai, There are NO Reports of BJP-BJD Alliance ending in Orissa.
Only The Talks are incoclusive
March 7, 2009 at 10:19 PM
Hi Raj,
I understand, ultimately BJD will come with BJP otherwise it will be major
loss to BJD not BJP
March 7, 2009 at 11:04 PM
Hi Raj,
It has broken.
March 7, 2009 at 11:11 PM
Hi,
BJP should not compromise.
March 8, 2009 at 1:45 AM
Raj,
I am a mallu settled in Tamil Nadu….BJP is not in a position even to get 2nd place in any of the seats in Kerala. Only in Nagercoil ,BJP has some chance in TN .But that too very difficult ,because of the alliance politics in TN.Except Karnataka ,there is not even a single sure seat for BJP in south. That is the reality and BJP needs to concentrate more at North and West to compensate these seats.
March 8, 2009 at 8:24 AM
Yeah, sadly The Alliance has Ended.
Christian congress and Evangelicals are extremely Happy as Orissa would be Delivered to Evangelical gomang.
March 8, 2009 at 1:20 PM
Chandra Babu Naidu has hit a Chord.
He got Most part Right.
He would Be A Clear Leader and Would Win about 120-130 Assembly Seats. BJP has Capability of winning 35-40 Assembly Segments(Mostly in Telangana)Therefore, He would Ditch Left(which anyway wont win more than 3-5 seats put together) and Ally with BJP
chiru would get only about 35-45 seats and may see desertions post elections to Naidu Camp(it would become easy as There is NO Common Symbol for PRP), infact, this is the greatest worry for chiru, to keep his flock together post election, if his party comes out to be only a distant 3rd/4th
March 8, 2009 at 2:20 PM
BJP has Not formed Any Alliance in Telangana
BJP will fight will Go Alone in AP
March 8, 2009 at 2:29 PM
Talking about future not today
March 8, 2009 at 2:31 PM
try to reduce alliances slowly.
March 8, 2009 at 9:20 PM
No central party will win a single seat in TN, as they have boycotted the tamilian issue. BJP for vote sake, they are bluffing over tamil elaem cause, but we all know the Aryan hidden agenda behind it.
March 8, 2009 at 9:41 PM
Hello, what is Dravidian Open Agenda : Evangelize TN?
That will NOT Happen
March 9, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Hi TN,
Face each and every month Parliament election and keep on talking Tamil
elam.
March 9, 2009 at 3:43 PM
Another Bolt for Congress in AP.
Madiga Reservation Porata Samiti President Manda Krishna is Speculated to Contest from Pedapally(Res) Lok Sabha Constituency as Grand Alliance Candidate(Most Likely on TRS Ticket). This Isnt A Strong Seat for BJP and Hence, BJP need Not worry. Sometime Back I mentioned that Pedapally is A Congress Stronghold(one of the two seats where congress has a chance of winning in Telangana), now this time,congress is bound to lose this seat as well.
And also, the going is getting tough for Renuka Choudhary in Khammam, TDP is gaining ground in Khammam and also PRP is cutting into congress votebank there. Hence, congress would Draw a Blank in All The 17 Lok Sabha Seats in Telangana
March 9, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Soma, one cannot write off BJP in AP though the media is underplaying.
BJP has Pulled Huge crowds in The Telangana Region.
March 9, 2009 at 3:57 PM
Raj,
In Maharashtra the NDA is going from strength to strength
March 9, 2009 at 4:02 PM
March 9, 2009 at 4:10 PM
s ur rite:
http://www.sindhtoday.net/south-asia/72214.htm
March 10, 2009 at 2:33 PM
Raj,
I think this survey is not baised
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/neutral/poll-gives-ap-congress-078
If this is the case in feb, the most important development is that MRPS has joined the Mahakutani, now that if MRPS and the congress rebels affect another 30 seats, AP has no choice but to go with a govt of TDP, TRS, PRP, MRPS and BJP.
I pray that in AP INC + left is below 140 seats.
March 10, 2009 at 3:04 PM
Dear Arun, Yes, it’s Not Biased but, 300 per constituency is a very low number.
Also, They arent considering BJP as a player even in Lok Sabha Polls in Telangana region.
The Manifesto of TDP has watered down congess and PRP.
As ridiculous as it appears, I bet, The Colour TV will certainly bring back The Traditional TDP Voters back to TDP
March 10, 2009 at 3:06 PM
A Survey cant be predicted unless, it’s a sample of 30,000 per constituency for Lok abha and 10,000 per constituency for Assembly
March 10, 2009 at 3:06 PM
* I mean cant be reliable
March 10, 2009 at 3:10 PM
unless congress PRP left combine falls below 145, There is A Chance of Congress forming the government in the state and Thus Blocking Telangana and SC Categorization and Further Increasing Mass Conversions. Chiru has Promised that He will take All measures to help christians travel to Bethlehem,Nazareth,Jerusalem if He forms Government.
It’s Nothing but to say “Become A Christian and Enjoy Free Trip to Foreign Country”
What A Shame. Is This Secularism?
March 10, 2009 at 5:59 PM
Raj,
Bad news : Krishnam Raju to jump from BJP to INC.
I am highly disappointed at the News
March 10, 2009 at 6:28 PM
This guy is eying Nasarpur from INC and hence does not want Krishnam Raju into the party. It would be a disaster if Krishnam Raju leaves the BJP
http://andhraheadlines.com/State/BrowseArticle.aspx?tab=1&ArtID=39564
March 10, 2009 at 6:52 PM
Dear Arun, It’s A Media Speculation. The Leader said ” I Dont Think Krishnam Raju would Leave BJP”
where did You get info that Krishnam Raju is Leaving BJP?
The News Doesnt say That at all.
March 10, 2009 at 6:57 PM
Krishnam Raju in His Own Words, Stated, It’s A Big Surprise from where The Media Men have got info that He is rejoining congress. As per Andhra Vilas, By Last Evening(that is by Evening of March 9th 2009) He would Announce His Decision. But, He hasnt so far. Which seems, He hasnt Joined Congress
March 10, 2009 at 7:01 PM
if he joins congress, BJP would certainly recieve a Blow, No Doubt. But, He Cant Win Either
March 11, 2009 at 3:43 PM
In TN
ADMK + MDMK + CPM + CPI = 20 +
DMK + INC + PMK = 15 +
BJP + DMDK = > 5
In Pondy
PMK
If PMK support ADMK
ADMK Alliance = 39 in TN
And 1 seat for INC
March 11, 2009 at 4:48 PM
Have BJP
March 11, 2009 at 5:02 PM
have BJP And DMDK Finalized Alliance.
March 12, 2009 at 9:20 AM
Raj,
I meant this news item
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Turncoat+culture+here+to+stay&artid=SIkcuple30Y=&SectionID=e7uPP4|pSiw=&MainSectionID=fyV9T2jIa4A=&SectionName=EH8HilNJ2uYAot5nzqumeA==&SEO=
March 12, 2009 at 11:03 AM
Okay. but, I havent heard This News from Any Major source
March 12, 2009 at 11:09 AM
good news from karnataka
Small minority groups support BJP there
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Mangalore/BJP-not-anti-minorities-Club/articleshow/4253037.cms
March 13, 2009 at 1:20 PM
It is likely That PMK and VCK would Join AIADMK Front.
If That is so, AIADMK-PMK-MDMK-Left combine would sweep in TN
March 13, 2009 at 2:28 PM
Not a good move:
In karim Nagar lok sabha BJP is to put a dummy candidate against TRS. Vidyasagar Rao will contest for the Vemulawada Assembly Constituency.
March 13, 2009 at 2:44 PM
Hi lkadvani.in,
Is he going for assembly seat or loksabha seat.
March 13, 2009 at 3:12 PM
assembly seat
March 13, 2009 at 3:14 PM
Why, He is most suitable candidate for loksabha.
March 13, 2009 at 3:20 PM
Back door tieup between BJP and TRS
March 13, 2009 at 3:28 PM
In how many seats is it.
March 13, 2009 at 3:31 PM
What about KCR. Is he going to fight from Karimnagar or not.
March 13, 2009 at 3:49 PM
Dear Ritesh Ji,KCR will Fight from Medhak.
Dear Arun, it’s Good That BJP will field some Strong Candidates in Assembly Segments as well in The Telangana Region.
BJP needs A CM Face for Telangana and Ch Vidya Sagar Rao Alone can give That as Bandaru Dattatreyya is Limited Only to Secunderabad Constituency and further, He Never contested an Assembly Election.
With Baddam Balram Reddy too in Entry to Lok Sabha Polls from Chevella, Where He is Highly Popular, BJP has NO Popular Face in Assembly Segments in Telangana Region. Another Strong BJP Leader, N Indrasena Reddy will fight from Malkajigiri, Another Newly Constituted Parliamentary Constituency and This Like Secunderabad is A Sure Seat for BJP.
TRS is opting to field Vijayashanti from Karimnagar as communists are Demanding Bhuvanagiri(Bhongiri) Parliamentary Constituency. If That Happens, then BJP Should Field C Janga Reddy from Bhuvanagiri and TRS Cadres would work for Janga Reddy’s Success against The Communists, who are opposed Telangana.
March 13, 2009 at 3:55 PM
It seems the underground tieup is in 5 seats
March 13, 2009 at 3:56 PM
oh, it’s Not vijayashanti but someone else, to contest from Karimnagar Parliamentary Constituency, either Vinod Kujmar or KCR’s Son
March 13, 2009 at 3:59 PM
BJP list for Lok Sabha from AP released
http://www.samaylive.com/news/bjp-releases-list-of-eight-candidates-from-ap/613498.html
March 13, 2009 at 4:00 PM
Bangaru Lakshman to contest from Warrangal.
March 13, 2009 at 4:03 PM
I thought, it was his wife who is going to contest from warangal
March 13, 2009 at 4:08 PM
The names announced for Andhra Pradesh are Bal Reddy (Chevella), Naresh (Hindupur), DV Subbarao (Vishakhapatnam), Sanyasi Raju (Vijaynagram), Venkat Swamy (Tirupati) and Bojayya (Aruku)Bandaru Dattatreyya(Secunderabad),Nallu Indra Sena Reddy(Malkajigiri).
The Seats BJP Will Win : Secunderabad,Malkajigiri,Chevella, Visakhapatnam.
Seats where BJP has NO Hope : Bojayya-Aruku(Though The Candidate is AndhraPradesh BJP ST Morch Leader, No one outside The Party has Ever heard of him) and Sanyasi Raju-Vizianagaram. I dont understand Why BJP even fielded A Cadidate from here. This constituency is PRP Bastion.
March 13, 2009 at 4:12 PM
In Tirupati and Hindupur though BJP is bound to lose, would atleast Garner votes. But in Araku and Vizianagaram, I doubt, if even that is possible and if BJP Would even save Deposit in these two Parliamentary Constituencies.
Aruku would witness a Tough Fight between congress, PRP and TDP while Vizianagaram would go PRP way
March 13, 2009 at 4:14 PM
but, as per sources, it would be Him. His wife would probably be re-nominated from Jallor in Rajashtan
March 13, 2009 at 4:15 PM
Hi,
I am very happy BJP is going to field candidate in all seats in AP. Do not
worry next election BJP will win 25% to 50% in whole AP)( including Telangana).
Inner understanding with TRS i like it.
March 13, 2009 at 4:15 PM
*Jalore in Rajashtan from where she won in 2004
March 13, 2009 at 4:18 PM
The Only state where it is unclear is TN.
usually, TN used to be The Focus of Alliance Makes and Breaks in The Run up to Elections since ’96. But, this time, Parties are still keeping everyone guessing on who will go with whom except that : AIADMK and DMK wont sail together.
Hahahahaha
March 13, 2009 at 4:28 PM
Yes Ritesh Ji, BJP Should Contest Maximum Assembly Seats in AP.
Atleast 270 Assembly Seats.
March 13, 2009 at 4:34 PM
Yes, last time both were outsider for jalore, this time it would not be so
March 13, 2009 at 4:58 PM
L. Ganesan, The Tamil Nadu State Unit BJP Chief is All set to enter Poll Fray from South Chennai. This Seat has lot of BJP Sympathisers.
March 13, 2009 at 5:23 PM
Dear Raj,
From what I read, BJP is planning to contest from 12 lok sabha seats & 50 Assembly seats in AP.
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=BJP+to+contest+12+LS,+50+Assembly+seats+in+AP&artid=Broh76xtEwI=&SectionID=e7uPP4|pSiw=&MainSectionID=fyV9T2jIa4A=&SectionName=EH8HilNJ2uYAot5nzqumeA==&SEO=
This surprises me. I think the reason is they never developed their base after tying up with TDP and so can’t even field candidates. If they field just 50 candidates, i doubt if they can win more than 15 assembly seats.
March 13, 2009 at 5:35 PM
Dear Arun Ji,That is Only A Media Speculation.
BJP Will Field Candidates in All Parliamentary Seats in Telangana, That alone accounts for 17 Seats.
It is Only A Media Campaign. There is NO Truth About That.
Express Buzz is Too Speculative.
It reported KrishnamRaju to have joined Congress, while as Per Bandaru Dattatreyya as of Date, He is still with BJP
March 13, 2009 at 5:37 PM
And Further, that was Last Month’s News.
March 13, 2009 at 5:37 PM
But interesting his name is not in the BJP list released for Lok Sabha candidates!!! I still suspect the news!!
March 13, 2009 at 5:38 PM
Sorry, I wrongly Addressed to Arun, it is for AK Bhai
March 13, 2009 at 5:41 PM
I was expressing my unhappiness over Krishnan Raju name not present in the BJP list released today.
March 13, 2009 at 5:53 PM
as Per News BJP has Also Announced A First list of 43 Candidates for 43 Assembly Seats in Andhra Pradesh
March 13, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Dear Arun, It’s Just The First list.
March 13, 2009 at 11:00 PM
In Malakpet Assembly Constituency, BJP in my View has Done A Grave Mistake by Not fielding Subhash Chanderji(The One, Who accepted The Challenge of Takinf on MIM last General Election) and instead favoured a Senior Leader Karunakar. This would Prove to be Costly for BJP in This Almost Sure Winnable Assembly Segment as The Nominated Candidate is Not strong enough to take on The Incumbent Congress MLA from Malakpet, Malreddy Rangareddy who is A Well Known Criminal.
March 13, 2009 at 11:02 PM
Had BJP Fielded Subhash Chanderji from Malakpet Assembly Seat, BJP for sure would Win This Seat. However, now, This Seat has become Tough for BJP, Though in Lok Sabha People here would Vote for BJP but in Assembly, They would probably sail with Lok Satta
March 13, 2009 at 11:15 PM
Dear Friends And This is to Vikas ji and Arun Ji in Particular. It seems, Post Delimitation, Muslim Population of Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency has Increased above 50% and is as High as 60% and Therefore, BJP is Not Toying with The Idea of Fielding A Strong Candidate like Baddam BalRam Reddy from here and Instead is opting for Newly Constituted Chevella where He is Highly Popular.
Now, BJP has Only two Options for Hyderabad Lok Sabha Constituency, Liaqat Ali, BJP’s Andhra Pradesh Unit Minority Morcha President. But, BJP is also Toying with the idea of sending Him to Assembly Instead from Jubilee Hills or Reluctant Shubash ChanderJI Who is Disappointed as He has Not been Nominated for Malakpet Assembly Segment, from where, He was keen to contest.
March 14, 2009 at 9:50 AM
Great News!!!!! congress is fielding S Jiapal Reddy from Chevella. The Voters are Quite unhappy and This Gives Baddam BalRam Reddy An Added Advantage as People of Chevella are frowning at Jaipal Reddy’s Nomination from here as he is neither A Native of this constituency nor does he have a clean image.
March 14, 2009 at 1:58 PM
I Think, It’s Only A Matter of time that Krishnam Raju will leave BJP. It also seems, withholding/Dropping The Announcement of KrishnamRaju’s name from Narsapur was Deliberate.
For Sure, A Loss for BJP.
Now, is it Advantage PRP/Congress has to be seen.
March 14, 2009 at 12:14 PM
I think BJP in Telangana region should plan for aggressive compaign by projecting Mr.Vidya Sagar as Chief Ministerial candidate and spear head systematic campaign through national leaders Mr.Advani & Mr.Modi.BJP should take note of uncertainity prevaling in telangana,because of the un acceptable stand taken by TRS in joining Mahakutami a group of anti -telengana parties.It should cash on the telanagana sentiment promising good governance.
March 15, 2009 at 9:29 AM
Hi Vishnu,
I am agree with you.
March 15, 2009 at 9:43 AM
Hi,
BJP should announce CM for AP also.
March 15, 2009 at 9:44 AM
Hi,
All this activity will give a direction to BJP
March 15, 2009 at 6:23 PM
The ever changing current political scenario is so uncertain that no political pundit can analyse and predict the outcome.Now it is time for the BJP to keep their allies intact without any further damage and go back to Pramod Mahajan’s style of election management to gain maximum from Orissa and southern states.All should remember that every seat is important for BJP,and in post poll hung situations all these opportunistic political formations will onceagain join together to keep BJP out of power as happened in 2004.BJP,hence should be cautious and monitor the day to day to changing political scenario and develop strategies and keep its all options open to invite new friends,of course not from opportunistic political formations.Every vote counts and every seat counts.
March 15, 2009 at 9:27 PM
NDA needs to come to power, for progress of the nation, not of the individuals like happened in Congress regime. however what is being noticed is the TV media specially the CNN-IBN alike is knowingly creating the impression among the viewers that the opinion polls suggest returning of UPA. Rajdeep Sirdesai had been the active congress worker when in Mumbai, he is forcing his personal loyalty to congress through his media. many may do not know, the media baron once disclosed to me that 50% share in CNN-IBN is by Congressmen. (now 15% stake has been taken by Anil Ambani of SP supporter, that the reason the “cash for vote’ scam was not exposed on TV to save Amarsingh, the DALAL) he was ably rewarded with Padmashri for his efforts. look what happened to his prediction on Karnataka election! he had to apologies after the results.
leaving that aside, the BJP has to extra alert as far as what radicals are doing in Karnataka, as the Young guns may get disturbed and confused. Moreover BJP should contest all the Loksabha constituencies in Orisa and Andhra, there is strong chance that in Orisa people may vote overwhelmingly as what happened in KA.
March 16, 2009 at 7:19 AM
So BJP is indeed contesting on all assembly and lok sabha seats in Andhra this time.
“However, for the first time, the saffron party has decided to contest for all the Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in the state.”
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/andhra-set-to-witnesskeen-triangular-contest/351588/
With PRP coming in and Congress being incumbent and NDA promising Telengana in 100 days, I think this is the best time for them in AP.
Since BJP has a dedicated votebank. Entry of PRP can only help it possibly gain more seats. I just wish PRP makes some strong dent to anti-congress votes in Telengana by taking in former Congressmen.
March 16, 2009 at 8:40 AM
BJP Gaining momentum in Telengana ,TRS members join BJP
http://andhraheadlines.com/NRI/BrowseArticle.aspx?tab=6&ArtID=39853
From 63% people voting in Telengana who will vote for Telengana state, BJP is bound to win at least 30% – 35% of total Telengana votes. My personal assessment is from 17 lok sabha seats and 119 assembly seats in Telengana,
BJP will win
4-5 lok sabha seats
30-35 assembly seats, vast improvement from 2 seats currently.
March 16, 2009 at 10:18 AM
Hi,
Yesterday i was coming by train from Hyd to Chennai. One person( belong to Nalgonda )entered in my compartment. I asked him about Telangana sentiment, He told me each and everyone wants Telangana. It means, If BJP put 100% efforts, I feel ,BJP may get 10 seats out of 17 seats in Telangana.
March 16, 2009 at 10:57 AM
Oh, that is good to hear directly from people as they are in best position to tell.
Did u ask him about chances of BJP specifically in Telengana.
I feel there is some impact of BJP rallies there but don’t know how much vote share it will translate into.
March 16, 2009 at 11:05 AM
Thatz Great News AK Bhai!!!!!! I have always been Asserting That BJP Will come out as A Strong Force in Telangana and All these biased pollsters Will have to Openly Apologize
March 16, 2009 at 11:07 AM
my Bet for BJP in Telangana is 5-7 Seats.
Secunderabad,Malkajigiri,Chevella,Mehbubnagar,Warrangal,
Mehbubabad and Nizamabad/Zaheerabad
March 16, 2009 at 11:23 AM
BJP neednot unduly worry about the developments in Orissa.It is advantage BJP for several reasons.Firstly,they are out of anti incumbency by opposing BJD.Secondly,the split has raised the hopes in third front(of course,it is hope against hope) and following which,JD(S)in Karnataka will not align with Congress making it relatively easy for BJP to gain more seats.However,BJP should learn lessons from the recent losses in Delhi and Rajasthan states which are attributed to mismanagement and internal rift.At this critical juncture senior leaders should not make any move that would displease second line leaders.
March 16, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Well said Dear Vishnu Bhai
March 16, 2009 at 1:03 PM
Dear Friends, Wish and Hope that PMK Remains with UPA. This would Force DMDK to contest Elections All Alone as Captain is seeking 10 Lok Sabha Seats for His Party and wont comedown to less than 7 seats at any cost. This will be A Setback to DMDK as well for in Lok Sabha Elections, He may Not generate A Great Impact except in 3 consitituencies, viz : Coimbatore,Dindigul and Villupuram.
If PMK were to come out of UPA, then DMDK would be offered The required number of seats and it would e Advantage UPA in TN.
March 16, 2009 at 3:20 PM
Great News,
BJP is winning votes among minorities also
http://www.samaylive.com/news/hundreds-of-muslim-leaders-join-bjp/613946.html
March 16, 2009 at 3:22 PM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/Mangalore/BJP-not-anti-minorities-Club/articleshow/4268083.cms
March 16, 2009 at 5:58 PM
It seems Advani Ji Himself Called up Krishnam Raju and the latter has for now dropped the idea of shifting loyalties.
March 16, 2009 at 6:10 PM
It is a pity Chiranjeevi did not join BJP, Chiranjeevi was simply selfish and thought that he will sweep Andhra Pradesh.
Well, he will pay for his selfishness. Telangana will be split 3 way between BJP /Chiranjeevi/TDP with Congress routed in Telangana.
My projection for Telangana is : 4-5 seats BJP
6-7 seats TDP
6 seats Chiranjeevi.
Coastal AP: Chiranjeevi will do well about 4 of the 5 loksabha seats. BJP may grab 1 seat.
Rayalseema: Here Congress will do well Since Chiranjeevi did not ally with BJP.
Congress should win about 19 Loksabha seats.
TDP: 1 seat.
So overall Picture for AP is:
Congress: 19 seats.
Chiru : 10 seats.
TDP : 8-9 Seats.
BJP : 4-5 seats.
If Chiru had allied with the BJP then following would have happened:
Chiru : 28 seats.
BJP: 6 seats.
Congress: 8 seats.
TDP: Routed : 0 seats.
Chiru has cost his party Majority in AP Assembly and lost about 18 LOK SABHA seats.
March 16, 2009 at 9:17 PM
Hi Saurav,
I don’t think PRP is that strong in Telengana. Apart from Devender Gaud, it doesn’t have any leader and is struggling to find suitable candidates.
In Telengana it is going to be fight between,
BJP
TRS-TDP
Congress
It will be very close battle, 1-2 % vote share can completely swing it to any party.
March 16, 2009 at 9:19 PM
I think BJP is gaining momentum in Telengana.
“Meanwhile, 30 district level leaders from different parties including a Supreme Court lawyer and 7 village sarpanchs from Medak, Adilabad and Krishna districts joined the BJP on Saturday”
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-to-finalise-second-list-of-candidates-in-andhra/87663-37.html
March 16, 2009 at 9:33 PM
I agree with Saurav’s observation,that overconfident Chiranjeevi has himself spoiled his winnig chances by refusing an alliance with BJP,which will cost him dearly.As a right strategy,Chiranjeev who cannot mobalise the cader in such a short span of time,should have used the grass root level workers of BJP to cash on his charishma in Telangana and both BJP and PRP would have together swept the elctions in Telanagan making a good chance for Chiranjeevi to lead the state.Now its all over.It his strategic mistake and PRP has to repent later.
March 16, 2009 at 10:00 PM
I am Happy that BJP and chiru Alliance Hanst Materialized.
It’s A Blessing in Disguise or else, BJP would have been playing a second fiddle to prp.
In Telangana, prp will NOT be Able to Win even A Single Lok Sabha Seat.
Similarly, BJP Cant Win A Lok Sabha Seat in Rayalaseema and South Coastal Andhra.
The Only Seat in Coastal Andhra where BJP is Certain to Win is Visakhapatnam.
March 16, 2009 at 10:30 PM
* I am Glad That BJP and prp Alliance Hasn’t Materialized
March 16, 2009 at 10:33 PM
News From TamilNadu : pmk to remain with upa. dmk and pmk leaders have held first round of talks. pmk is demanding 1 seat more to what it contested last time, while dmk wants to maintain a status quo.
pmk and congress too have held talks for seat sharing.
What is BJP Doing? Even BSP has announced candidates for 12 Lok Sabha Seats in TN, While BJP hasn’t. TN is The Only Major state, where BJP has NOT Announced Even A Single Candidate for The Coming Polls!!!!!!!!!!
March 16, 2009 at 10:34 PM
I absolutely agree with Raj. BJP has to learn from Orissa fiasco.
They’ll be more recognized if they fight alone. Reminding me of famous Bengali song “Ekla cholo ..”
March 16, 2009 at 10:52 PM
Hi Friends, some Good News from TamilNadu : Sararth Kumar and BJP are in Touch and There are Talks between These Two Parties.
March 17, 2009 at 9:13 AM
Varun has big time F_ _ked the campaign, i think his speech will snow ball into a big controversy.
Seeing his speech, it was really disappointing as a BJP supporter
March 17, 2009 at 9:24 AM
Dear Arun, let’s Discuss about that in North India Forum. But, if His speech was really so, vicious, how come congress news network remain silent and Not run it as Headlines.
March 17, 2009 at 9:25 AM
Andhra Pradesh : inc has decided to field some bapiraju from Narsapur thus ending the speculation of KrishnamRaju quitting BJP and joining congress
March 18, 2009 at 5:14 PM
Dear Friends :
It seems, Hindupur Parliamentary Seat in Andhra Pradesh would for Sure Come The BJP Way even if TDP Fields Balakrishna, son of NTR Sr.
http://www.greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=13877&scat=39
March 18, 2009 at 6:13 PM
Raj,
You are right the BJP has not announced a single candidate for the Lok Sabha. The BJP appears to be in a quandry. It must prove itself by securing a decent vote share if it wants to align with a major party in any subsequent election. At the same time any strident campaigning by the BJP will result in splitting the anti DMK/Congress vote to the benefit of the UPA. Another possibility is that of the BJP waiting for the AIADMK making some last minute uturn and accomodating the BJP and ousting the Communist. This strategy has benefits for the AIADMK in that the communists cannot go with the DMK and by contesting independently they would be cutting mainly into the DMK votes. Further the small parties like Sarath Kumar can also be braught into the AIADMK front by allocating a seat of their choice.
As regards the DMK front the VCK has been accomodated by Karuna without any regard to what the local Cong. men feel. Further Karuna will insist on Thiruma to contest on the DMK symbol which may not be acceptable to Kaeruna. Captain is still oscillating and both DMK and Cong. may have to sacrifice some seats to accomodate Captain.
March 18, 2009 at 7:27 PM
Thiru Hari, A Pleasant Surprise to see A Message from You after Months!!!!!
BJP has appealed to Captain to form Alliance with BJP and also Cautioned Him that had He to go Alone or Ally with DMK/AIADMK, His Party would lose The Vote Base and Trust of The People.
I personally feel,Even if There is A Last Moment U-Turn by Jaya and if she Wishes to Ally with BJP, BJP Shouldnt Compromise of The Following Seats :
1. South Chennai — Ganesan or Krishnamachari Srikanth
2. Ramanathapuram — S. Thirunavakarasar(As Aranthangi is now Part of Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency)
3. Kanniyakumari — Pon Radhakrishnan
4. Coimbatore — C P Radhakrishnan
5. Tenkasi — This is A Reserved Constituency, BJP should field An SC Leader Here
6. Thiruchirapally — Nabiar or Lalitha Kumaramangalam
7. Nilgiris — This is Again A Reserved Constituency,Announce ST Status to Badaga Community
8. Tiruppur — Master Mathan
9. Dharmapuri — I dont Remember His name
10. Pondicherry — Probably, Lalitha Kumaramangalam
NO Compromise on Either The Number or The Choice of The Constituency Should be BJP’s Approach.
March 18, 2009 at 9:04 PM
Raj,
I don,t think Jaya will give that many seats to the BJP. More particularily as the alliance may fructify only if PMK joins this front. Vijaykanth is likely to go alone as his a long term objective and the only thing that is making him talk to the Cong. is that he wants a common symbol and is hoping that Cong.may help him toawrds that. He would be commiting political suicide if he went with the DMK and would loose his identity.
March 18, 2009 at 9:10 PM
As regards candidates Ela Ganesan from Chennai South, Thirunavakkarasar from Ramanathapuram are ideal for the BJP but Jaya being Jaya will never allow the BJP the freedom to select these two, as she considers Ganesan as Karuna’s man and Thirunavakkarasar a traitor of her party.
Pon Radhakrishnan has already started his champaign and Kanyakumari being one of the AIADMK’S weakest area they would not mind his candidature.
March 18, 2009 at 9:31 PM
Thiru Hari, it would be A Blunder if BJP Doesnt Field Thiru S Thirunavakarasar from Ramanathapuram. It is Actually Because of These Two Seats : Ramanathapuram and Ila Ganesan that I Dont want BJP to Ally with AIADMK as Jaya considers Thiru S Thirunavakarasar as her Bete Noire.
As You mentioned earlier that BJP has lost it’s influence in Coimbatore, BJP Should Focus Primarily in These Three Constituencies in TamilNadu.
March 18, 2009 at 9:36 PM
under Present Cicumstances, The Jaya Front would Clearly Win 25-30 Lok Sabha Seats in TamilNadu even in Adverse Case.
It would be A Blunder by Captain if He becomes Part of Alliance containing DMK and would lose His credibility. Also, He would have topugh time if He fights Alone for Lok Sabha Polls and can Create An Impact only in Coimbatore,Cuddalore,Villupuram and Dindigul.
I am Not saying Captain would Win All these four seats. But, can create an Impact here.
March 18, 2009 at 9:50 PM
Raj,
As of today the presence of Vijaykanth is hurting AIADMK more than the DMK. Vijaykanth as part of the AIADMK lliance can not only retain his identity but also slowly establish himself as a person who can tilt the scales in the way the PMK has done all these years.
March 19, 2009 at 8:48 AM
Hari, You are Right. But, if Captain joins AIADMK Alliance, Jaya would gain while Captain would lose.
If e joins DMK led Alliance, He would lose Credibility and Anti DMK Votes would go back to Jaya.
If He stans Alone, He cant Win Seats.
If and Only if He stiches up an Alliance with BJP, He can save from Disgrace and Political Ignonomy
March 19, 2009 at 9:27 AM
Hi Raj,
If Vijaykant goes with BJP( not merge), BJP may announce him CM candidate
for TN. Tomorrow he may be CM. If he lives with Jaya, he can not be CM.It will be advantageous to BJP also.
March 19, 2009 at 11:42 AM
Assembly Elections in TN are some two years away as of Date. so, let’s Not bother about the same now. As of Date, it is About Lok Sabha Polls. TN Takes A Different Shape Each Election and The Political Parties of TN Lack Credibility
March 19, 2009 at 1:27 PM
The BJP must adopt different strategies for different state. For Advani this is his last chance, considering his age, and the party cannot experiment by trying to build voter base in different states at this juncture.
1. In states like Bengal the aim should be to prevent prevent Cong. from getting more seats even if it means enabling the left to get more seats. In Bengal the BJP can play soft and allow the Trinamool Cong. to win more seats. The BJP must aggresively champaign in seats where left is sure to win so as to enable them to build a base for the Future.
2. In Orissa the focus should be similar as in Bengal only that the the BJP should not split the anti Cong. votes where the BJD is in a better position to do well.
3. In Kerala the BJP should play spoil sport to the Cong. As shown in the past whenever the BJP vote share exceeds 6 % the Cong. allaince bites the dust.
4. In Tamil Nadu again the focus should not to play spoil sport to AIADMK as they are potential post poll ally. In seats where the PMK is contesting as an ally of the UPA the BJP should try and give a good performance as both PMK and AIADMK can be considered as potential allies.
5. In AP too the focus should be to reduce the tally on the Cong.
In the overall if Congress were to get about 15 to 20 seats less than the BJP then it may find it extremely difficult to cobble up an alliance and if the BJP can cross 160 seats it can attract most of the fence sitters.
March 19, 2009 at 1:36 PM
Finally Truce:
http://www.zeenews.com/nation/2009-03-19/516100news.html
March 19, 2009 at 4:11 PM
My predictions for Karnataka…
1)Chamarajanagar: It will be tough fight between COngress and JDS . Advntage Congress
2)Mysore: Aas COorg district has been added to the region..It has become BJP stronghold.Mysore city+Coorg enough to ensure BJP candidate Vijayshankar the Victory. Definitely BJP
3)Hassan: JDS supremo HD DeveGowda will win from here
4)Dakshina Kannada (Mangalore) :COngress Central Minister Renuka CHowdary has delivered the seat to BJP by calling the region as Taliban…BJP has also put up strong candidate vinay kumar kateel..Its BJP in Mangalore…
5)Tumkur: Three way contest between JDS,COng and BJP..WIth thee blessings of Siddaganga swamiji HH Shivakumara swami, BJP will win this seat
6)Chitradurga : BJP has fielded MBA post graduate from the constituency.Its traditional COngress stronghold, but It might change this time 50-50 chance for both BJP and COng
7)Kolar : BJP candidate DS veeraiah is strong candidate,vARTHUR PRAKASH campaigning for BJP will help a lot and hence BJP will win this seat.If ex central minister Muniyappa is given COng canidate,then 100% BJP will win
8)Chikballapur : jALappas retirement, and his son winning from BJP ,Three bangalore city BJP assembly segments being added to this seat all indicates that BJP would be the winner
9)Bangalore North: HT sanglia if contested from Congress then 100% sure seat for BJP OR ELSE 50-50
10)Bangalore central: If ex Lokayukta chief had been given the ticket,he would have won,But now BJP Ticket has been given to PC Mohan who lost in assembly . Hence it might be COngress
11)Bangalore SOuth: Traditional BJP stronghold. If ex CM SM Krishna contests from here.then its 50-50 or else 100% sure seat for BP’s AnathKumar
12)Mandya : Most likely to go JDS Cheluvaraya Swamy’s way
13)Bangalore RUral: Tough fight between COng and JDS (most likely HD Kumarswamy Vs DK Shivakumar)
14)Shimoga: Yediyurappa’s son from BJP will win easily
15)Davanagere : GM siddesh of BJP will win
16)Udupi-Chikmagalur: BJP Sronghold, COng most likely to field weak candidates like BL hsnakar and hence BJP state president Sadananda Gowda might win, IF cong puts strong candidate then 50-50
17)Uttarakannada(Karwara): Asnotikar’s charishma, Kageri’s help will ensure BJP victory against Dynastic rule of Deshpandes
NOW LETS SEE HOW BJP performs in storng fort of North Karnataka where JDS will surely draw blank
18)Bidar->BJP candidate Gurupadappa Nagamarpalli is very strong candidate.Congress is likely to field ex chief minister DHaram singh… BJP is most likely to win
19)Gulbarga->COng candidate Kharge is strong but Lingayats form Majority here.Hence fight would be tough but advantage Congress
20)Koppal->COng incumbent bad MP ensures Vctory for good BJP candidate
21)rAICHUR:toUGH FIGHT BETWEEN nAIKS .50-50
22)bELLARY: The only lady MP from Karnataka would be Shanthi from BJP
23)Belgaum: BJP’S COntroversial candidate ANagadi might win
24)Chikkodi: KATHI , Bala Jarakiholi ensures victory for BJP
25)Bijapur: Traditional BJP seat
26)Bagalkot: 100% BJP seat
27)Dharwad: Incumbent BJP MP has done good work and will get elected for next term as well
28)Haveri: Udasi from BJP will win
Total seats: 28
BJP:19-22
Cong:4-8
jds:2-4
March 19, 2009 at 5:25 PM
Great Analysis Santeesh Ji. But, would like to know what are SC Reserved Seats as BSP would dent into congress there. Though in TN, Kerala doesnt have Strong BSP Presence among Dalits, In Karnataka, as shown from last Assembly Elections, BSP did make a mark among SC Constituencies.
In AP, BSP is trying to make a dent , last time BSP in AP Polled 3.5% of Popular Vote, This time, BSP is likely to increase to 5% in AP
March 19, 2009 at 5:35 PM
Dear Hari, in my View, in Lok Sabha from AP, congress would get Only about 12 seats.
Congress , likely to Draw A Blank in Telangana in Parliamentary Elections.
In Rayalaseema, can Win : Karnool,Kadapa,Rajampeta and Tirupati easily.
Anantapur and Chitoor, The fight is Between congress and TDP. it has to be seen whether, PRP would take away Anti-Congress Votes or Anti TDP votes.
In Nandyal(if anyone remembers, This Constituency Once Elected A Prie Minister),The Fight is Between PRP and Congress
In communally Polarized Hindupur, congress has fielded the sitting MP Nizamuddin against whom there is A Strong Anti Incumbency as he NEVER Visited the people after getting elected. As per Lok Sabha Elections, The People’s Choice is BJP’s Naresh(Going by The Latest Reports,and also Advani Ji’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Madanapalle was A Huge Success,something unforeseen for BJP in Rayalaseema)irrespective of whom TDP and PRP field.
Nellore,Ongole,Bapatla :Triangular Fight between PRP and Congress (Advantage Congress)
March 19, 2009 at 7:44 PM
Raj,
I am happy to hear that Congress may be reduced to just 12 seats in AP. In addition the gainers should be preferably the BJP or its potential allies. If Congress indeed does that badly then its overall tally will drop to 140 or less making it impossible for a Congress led coalition. Now that may mean that to prevent the NDA from coming to power they may just about accept anybody from Deve Gowda ( God not one more time) to Mayawathi or Sharad Pawar as PM. The only way this can be prevented is that the pre poll NDA must cross 225 seats and Mamta must also get about 20 seats. That will make it near impossible for a coalition which has the Congress at the centre or outside.
March 20, 2009 at 10:51 AM
Dear Hari, The Only States where congress would gain are : Kerala and West Bengal while UPA as a whole in General and Congress in Particular are about to lose badly in Delhi, Rajasthan(Remember, in ’98 too, after sweeping Delhi and Rjaasthan Assembly Polls, the media portrayed like the same performance would be repeated in ’99 elections in these two states, on the contrary, congress drew a blank in Delhi and suffered a lot in Rajasthan, this time too, it was wrong selection of candidates and local factors like local infighting that defeated BJP in Delhi and Rajasthan Respectively, with Uma Bharati Back in BJP,it’s Advantage BJP). congress has NO Chance in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, UP,Delhi,Haryana,Bihar(including UPA),Jharkhand,Maharashra,Orissa(It is interesting here, pollsters feel it’s Advantage congress because of BJP-BJD Split, but the fact is that BJP and BJD Votes merely add up in Orissa rather than being Symbiotic at constituency level. BJP derives Strength in the triabl belt of western Orissa while BJD in The Urban Coastal Belt. Hence, at constituency level, it is A 2 Way Fight and NOT a 3 way fight),AP,TN and Karnataka.
Take it from me, Congress will get below 100 seats.
March 20, 2009 at 10:52 AM
and in Kerala and WB Congress gain is LF loss.
March 20, 2009 at 10:53 AM
In Assam too inc is going to face a mere rout.
March 20, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Dear Raj,
That would be historic, if congress goes below 100 seats. The lowest it was 114. If they fight alone in Bihar, which report indicates, BJP-JD(U) will sweep Bihar with 30-35 seats.
If Uma campaigns in Bundelkhand & Poorvanchal, BJP will be ~ 30 in UP. If modi campaigns in Orissa, they’ll retain their 7 seats in Lok sabha from Orissa.
With wins in Telengana, BJP will become Pan India party and Congress will be reduced to a fragmented national party.
March 20, 2009 at 11:18 AM
You are Right AK Bhai. Thatz Gonna HAPPEN
upa IS COMPLETELY IN sHAMBLES. sp, rjd,ljp,ncp ALL HAVE THEIR OWN MOTIVES.
Only in TN, with DMDK most likely joining UPA(as Per Reports), It would be 40-60 for upa and AIADMK Front.
BJP has NO Chance besides South Chennai, Kanniyakumari and Ramanathapuram. It’s Good for BJP to have Alliance with low profile Sarath Kumar for 2009 Lok Sabha Elections then with any other Party.And as Hari said, it is to some extent neccessary for BJP to have Sarah Kumar’s Help to Win Kanniyakumari Seat.
DMDK Joining a DMK Led Alliance will Prove to be Costly to Captain as He would lose credibility of being in An Alliance which has DMK and PMK.The Anti-DMK Votes would go Back to AIADMK and if BJP Works Hard, can galvanize The Anti-DMK Votes to BJP in Ramanathapuram,South Chennai and Kanniyakumari.
Aslo, BJP should Focus Primarily on Just These Three Constituencies in TN for 2009 Lok Sabha Polls and also make an Impact in certain segments of Dharmapuri,Coimbatore,Tirupur,Thenkasi. so that, whenever, Elections to TN Assembly are Held, BJP is Approached by AIADMK for Alliance and BJP Demand atleast 35-40 Assembly Seats. That is Possible If and ONLY If, BJP Polls about 7% of Popular vote in TN in Lok Sabha Elections of May 2009
March 20, 2009 at 11:24 AM
In Telangana The BJP’s Prospects are :
Secunderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella — Sure BJP
Zaheerabad,Mehbubabad(ST) — With More Efforts, A BJP Win
Warrangal(SC) and Hyderabad —- Very Hard. In Warrangal,need to have a secret pact with TRS and in Hyderabad, The other majlis should successfully take away a Large chunk of MIM votes.
Interestingly I have left out MehbubaNagar and KarimNagar — since in Karim Nagar , TRS and BJP have Secret understanding. And as Per Reports, since Vijayashanti is Adamant on Fighting from Medak, KCR is likely to shift to Mehbubnagar, here, he has to plead BJP to field a Weak Candidate for his success
March 20, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Nalgonda is Another Constituency where BJP has A Strong Stake. If This Seat is Alloted to Communists. BJP’s Chances are Bright in Nalgonda as TRS Would oppose Communists
March 20, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Hi Raj,
If BJP works hard in Telangana, BJP may win also 10 seats.
March 20, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Hi Raj,
There is good wave of Telangana.
This time for prachar, assembly BJP candidate will add lot of
value for parliament campaign.
March 20, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Hi Raj,
BJP should have understanding with BJD for few parliament
seats. My calculation BJP will win 25-35 in UP. Ajit singh will win 4-6 seats in UP. Min will be 29 seats.This time BJP has done good job in choosing candidate for UP. BJP leaders are having lot of efforts this time .
March 20, 2009 at 12:24 PM
Hi,
Orissa is setback for BJP. Do not have to many enmies at time. BJP is not having alliances in 4 states this time. AP,Orissa,TN,WB.
One more thing Congress will not get more than 6 seats in WB( last time Congress got 6 seats). TMC voteres will not cast vote to Congress.
Congress will get benefit in MP and Rajasthan( 3-8 seats as
compare to previous election) and will get benefit in Kerala.
BJP may win 2-5 seats in Kerala( if pseudo secular votes get divided).
March 20, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Hi,
Orissa is setback for BJP. Do not have too many enmies at a time. BJP is not having alliances in 4 states this time. AP,Orissa,TN,WB.
One more thing Congress will not get more than 6 seats in WB( last time Congress got 6 seats). TMC voteres will not cast vote to Congress.
Congress will get benefit in MP and Rajasthan( total 3-8 seats as
compare to previous election) and will get benefit in Kerala.
BJP may win 2-5 seats in Kerala( if pseudo secular votes get divided).
March 20, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Hi,
BJP should indirectly help to TRS(4 seats),TDP(10 seats),TMC(10 seats) and AIADMK (10 seats). And remaining seats BJP should try to defeat all these parties so that BJP may create own good base.
March 20, 2009 at 12:35 PM
Hi,
If u see old record of BJP, BJP may win all these seats.
Secunderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella
Zaheerabad,Mehbubabad(ST) —
Warrangal(SC) Hyderabad
MehbubaNagar, KarimNagar,Medak.
Remaing 7 seats BJP will get more than 20% votes
March 20, 2009 at 12:35 PM
Hi,
If u see old record of BJP, BJP may win all these seats.
Secunderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella
Zaheerabad,Mehbubabad(ST) —
Warrangal(SC) Hyderabad
MehbubaNagar, KarimNagar,Medak, Nalgonda.
Remaing 6 seats BJP will get more than 20% votes. May win 1 or 2 seats.
March 20, 2009 at 12:43 PM
Hyderabad This time is Hard as The Muslim Population, post delimitation has increased to 60%, The Current Hyderabad Constituency is Exclusively The Old City and it’s Suburbs. Hence, it is Advantage mim. If and Only if the other majlis successfully takes away mim votes and Hindus Vote Exclusively for BJP, does BJP have A Chance in Hyderabad this time.
March 20, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Raj what you say is true. In Orissa the BJP and BJD don’t necessarily clash with each other. The BJP has its strength in the tribal belt an will definitely perform well there due to the strong feelings that have built up after the killing of Swami Laskmananda Saraswathi. The fact that JMM will be contesting independently in the tribal areas will help the BJP there. Where the BJP has lost out is the non performance of a few MLA’s in the urban areas and also the failure to convince the urban electorate that it is a coalition Govt. and not a BJD Govt. Mr. Naveen Patnaik has managed to send a message across that he is clean and this has made him believe that the people will vote for him and not vote for the Congress considering the corrupt track record of that party.
March 20, 2009 at 12:49 PM
Dear Ritesh, Orissa Situation is A Blessing in Disguise for BJP.
The Return of Uma Bharati to BJP is a Setback to congress in The Entire Hindi Belt.
Varun has Brought Back All Hindutva Votes to BJP.
In Karim Nagar and Mehbub Nagar, BJP is deliberately helping TRS this is A Secret Pact.It’s Good. Though, in Future, The Fight in Telangana would be Between BJP and TRS
March 20, 2009 at 12:51 PM
Exactly Hari Bhai, The Media is trying to enthuse the congress cadres. They would get The Shock of Their lives on 16th May 2009 as The Results Pour in.
March 20, 2009 at 1:03 PM
My Assertion for TamilNadu :
AIADMK + MDMK + CPM + CPI —- 28-30 Seats
DMK-INC-DMDK-PMK — 10-12 Seats
BJP — 0-2 Seats
March 20, 2009 at 1:30 PM
Hi Raj,
Uma Bharti shuould be utilised only in UP(because UP is very-2 important). If she is used in
UP, BJP will get more than 30 seats in UP.
March 20, 2009 at 1:32 PM
Hi Raj,
If i say BJP may win 10 seats in AP. It all the thing in favour of BJP. In Hyderbad vote division for muslim should take place then BJP may win Hyderabad seat otherwise it is not possible.
March 20, 2009 at 8:55 PM
PMK likely to Join AIADMK Alliance. This shows The Announcement is Likely to be Made on 23rd of This Month, A Day after PMK’s General Council Meeting.This Shows The Greed of Ramadoss to Grab as Much Money Possible as Health Minister.The Reason He would state is : Congress’s InAction in Helping Lankan Tamils. Yeah, He waited for six Months for Congress’s Action
March 20, 2009 at 8:58 PM
DMDK Founder Captain will be in Tirupati to Seek Lord Balaji’s Blessings for The Coming Polls. Likely To Announce About Stand on Alliance at Press Conference on Sunday. Sources Reveal, Captain Doesnt want to be Part of Alliance containing DMK as an Alliance Partner.
He has Only Two Options Now :
Either Ally with BJP or Go Alone.
March 22, 2009 at 8:55 AM
This is a blog by Mr. Mahesh Jethmalani, a noted lawyer in supreme court of india. This below content has been taken from his blog.
________________________________________________________________________________________________
UPA AND TERROR – ZERO TOLERANCE OR ZERO WILL ?
TERRORIST ATTACKS :
A. Legal Response
B. Prevention and
C. Convictions
The five year rule of the UPA Government has witnessed an unprecedented proliferation in terrorist activity. This alarming increase is by itself indicative of the fact that the Indian state under the UPA has become a soft target for devastating attacks by terrorists both foreign and of the home grown variety. Not unpredictably, the UPA Government has been on the backfoot on the issue of terrorism throughout its five year reign.
In the face of a barrage of criticism in Parliament and the press, the stock response of Congress spokespersons in particular, has been to point fingers at the previous NDA regime in an attempt to demonstrate that the predecessor Government’s record on terror is no better than that of the present regime. In particular, the Congress defense has three planks at its core :
A. that the NDA regime witnessed three major terrorist activities on Indian soil in the Kandahar hijacking in December, 1999; the attack on Parliament in December, 2001 and the attack on Akshardham Temple Complex in Gujarat in September, 2002;
B. That draconian laws did not deter terrorist activities as is evident from the fact that the Akshardham attack took place within a few months of the promulgation of POTA; and
C. That the NDA’s response to these attacks and the Kandahar hijacking was pusillanimous in the extreme and that the UPA would have dealt with the situation with a far greater degree of efficacy.
PREVENTION : On the issue of frequency of terrorist attacks, there is virtually no contest in so far as the record of the two regimes are concerned. While the NDA era witnessed three major terrorist attacks, the following is the list of the major strikes that have become so conspicuous a feature of the UPA Government’s tenure:-
New Delhi , Oct 29, 2005 : 61 persons killed in three blasts on the eve of Diwali
Varanasi, March 7, 2006: 21 people killed and over 101 injured in two blasts that rocked Varanasi, the first at Sankat Mochan Temple and the second at Varanasi Railway station.
Mumbai, July 11, 2006: 7 explosions ripped through crowded suburban trains in Mumbai killing 209 persons and leaving 700 more bloodied and injured.
Malegaon, Maharashtra, Sep 8, 2006: 40 people killed in two blasts and about 200 injured in 4 explosions in the Hamidia Mosque and chowks.
Samjhauta Express, Feb 19, 2007: 66 people killed after two firebombs went off on the India-Pakistan friendship train, the Samjautha Express, at Panipat, North Delhi.
Hyderabad, Aug 25, 2007: 42 people killed in two blasts, at a popular eatery and a public park.
Jaipur, May 13, 2008: 68 people killed in serial bombings.
Bangalore, July 25, 2008: One person killed in a low-intensity bomb explosion.
Ahmedabad, July 26, 2008: 57 people killed after 20-odd synchronised bombs went off within less than two hours.
New Delhi, Sep 13, 2008: 26 people killed in six blasts across the
New Delhi, Sep 27, 2008: Three people killed after a crude bomb was thrown in a busy market in Mehrauli.
Malegaon, Maharashtra, Sep 29, 2008: 6 persons killed and about 101 injured after a bomb planted on a motorcycle exploded.
Modasa, Gujarat, Sep 29 2008: One killed and several injured after a low-intensity bomb kept on a motorcycle went off near a mosque.
Kanpur, Oct 14, 2008: 8 people injured after bomb planted on a rented bicycle went off Colonelganj market.
Imphal, Oct 21, 2008: 17 killed in a powerful blast near Manipur Police Commando complex.
Assam, Oct 30, 2008: At least 45 killed (figure can change) and over 100 injured in 18 terror bombings across Assam.
Mumbai, Nov 26, 2008: 180 killed and many more injured in seven terror attacks targeting mostly foreigners’ in the Taj Mahal Hotel, the Oberoi Trident Hotel, Leopold Cafe, CST, Chabad House and in random firing elsewhere by ten individuals armed with weapons, ammunition and grenades.
LEGISLATIVE RESPONSE : On the issue of strong laws to deal with the detection and prevention of terrorist activity and the trial and punishment of terrorists, the Congress stand discloses an unconscionable mix of both double standards and vote bank politics . Confronted with Sikh terrorism in Punjab and the assassination of its own Prime Minister by her Sikh body guards-both outcomes of Congress’s dangerously misconceived policies in Punjab-the Congress’s visceral reaction was the enactment of TADA, first by ordinance in 1985 and then by legislation in 1987. The Congress party’s civil libertarian pretensions found no public expression as TADA remained in force for well nigh 10 years. Meanwhile, convictions under the act were rare and when they did take place the ordinary law would have been adequate. On the other hand, thousands of innocent Sikh youth suffered the rigors of the statute through unwarranted arrests, illegal and protracted incarceration and custodial violence. Through all this, there was no whimper of protest from any Congress quarter.
In fact, Congressmen first discovered their revulsion for draconian laws in the wake of the Bombay serial blasts in 1993 as a consequence of which large number of Muslims, particularly from Mumbai, were arrested and sought to be tried under the TADA.
Congress M.Ps like Sunil Dutt commenced an indefatigable campaign for the repeal of TADA. On the eve of the 1995 parliamentary elections, Narsimha Rao’s Government allowed TADA to lapse.
In the wake of the Kandahar hijacking, and particularly the attack on Parliament in December, 2001, the NDA Government in 2002 enacted the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA). While it is true that a few months later in September, 2002 there was a terrorist attack by Lakshar-e-Toiba militants at the Akshardam Temple in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, this was the only terrorist incident for the rest of the NDA regime after the enactment of POTA. The failure to check the Akshardam attack in spite of POTA is explained by the fact that the Akshardham conspiracy was well under way by the time the police could invoke the extraordinary powers that POTA gave them for the early detection of terrorist crimes through wire tapping and the interception of letters, e-mails, etc.
Ominously the only exception to the otherwise terrorism free reign of the NDA Government’s post POTA was the city of Mumbai in Maharashtra where the Congress-NCP Government was in power. Between Dec. 2002 to August, 2003, Mumbai was convulsed by as many as six terrorist bombing episodes in a span of eight months that left several persons dead and many more seriously injured. .
From December 2002 to August 2003, as the following terrorist incidents occurred:-
Dec. 2 2002: Two persons were killed and 31 injured in a powerful explosion in a bus outside the crowded Ghatkopar railway station in Mumbai. The Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) was suspected to be behind the blasts.
Dec. 6, 2002: Twenty five people were injured in a bomb blast by members of the SIMI at McDonalds fast food restaurant at Mumbai Central railway station. The bomb was planted in the air conditioner duct. It was suspected to be a crude bomb.
Jan 27, 2003: Thirty persons were injured when a bomb planted on a bicycle went off throwing splinters of sharp nails outside Vile Parle railway station in Mumbai. Members of SIMI were found to be behind the attack.
March 13, 2003 : A powerful bomb blast shattered a bogie of a local train at Mulund railway station in Mumbai during peak hours killing 11 people and injuring more than 65 .
July 28 , 2003 : Bus blast kills 3 and injures 31 others in Mumbai. Pakistani intelligence agency : ISI and members of SIMI were found to be behind the blast.
August 23, 2003: Two bombings at the Gateway of India and the Mumbadevi temple in Mumbai killed 52, injured 167. Terrorists from Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Students Islamic Movement of India were found to be behind the attacks.
In sharp contrast to its response to terrorism in Punjab, the Congress vehemently opposed the enactment of POTA and made its repeal a part of their manifesto and campaign during the elections that ensued in 2004. Immediately on its assumption of power as a part of the UPA, the Congress introduced legislation for the repeal of POTA, although it retained some of its provisions through an amendment of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention), 1967.
Since that repeal, terrorism has been in spate through the length and breath of India. The UPA, however, remained undeterred about its stand on strong terrorist laws. It was only the stark horror and humiliation of 26/11/2008 that forced the UPA to grudgingly accept the utter folly of its previous ways. On 17.12.2008 the Home Minister, Mr. P.C. Chidambaram, introduced two bills to effectively deal with terror which subsequently became law. The first, an amendment to the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, substantially reintroduced all the earlier repealed stringent provisions of POTA. After five bitter years of struggling with terrorism, the UPA Government effectively bowed to the NDA’s legislative wisdom on terror.
CONVICTIONS : Congress’s attempts to defend its own abject record on terrorism by pointing to the earlier NDA’s Government record is both specious and misconceived. Its most stringent criticism of the previous regime centers around the Kandahar hijacking episode. According to the Congress, the NDA’s response was effete; the Congress would have effected the policy of Zero Tolerance and never allowed the hostage exchange of Masood Azhar for the passengers. This stand of the Congress constitutes an astounding volte face : contemporary newspaper reports of December, 1999 indicate that an all party meeting was held to discuss the Kandahar hostage crisis. At the said meeting there was unanimity amongst all parties that the Government of the day should handle the crisis in a manner that ensured the safety of all the passengers aboard IC 184. In fact it was categorically resolved that the safe return of the passengers to Indian shores should be the prime objective of the Government. The Congress delegation at the all party meeting, which endorsed this action, was led by Manmohan Singh. Neither Sonia nor Rahul Gandhi nor any other functionary of the Congress party opposed this line of action. Indeed contemporary newspaper reports disclose that both Sonia and Rahul were conspicuously silent on the issue. In stark contrast, the statements issueed by both in more recent times are critical of the approach of that Government.
More significantly, Masood Azhar whose release from captivity was at the centre of the hijackers demand, had been in custody since 1994 when he was arrested in Kashmir for terrorist activities. For five years the Congress Government and the subsequent Government which depended on Congress support for its survival, failed to secure Masood Azhar’s conviction on any charges in any court of law. Instead of trying and executing him for sedition, two successive Governments allowed him to languish in captivity, thus almost facilitating the audacious attempt for securing his release in a hostage exchange. The hijacking of IC 184 in December, 1999 was essentially motivated by the objective of securing Masood Azhar’s release. Those who did not secure his conviction and execution for five years were largely to blame for the Kandahar hijacking and its consequences as also for the several terrorists crimes attributed to him since 1999, including the attack on Parliament in December, 2001. Congress spokesmen have conveniently concealed these material facts.
As regards the 2001 attack on Parliament, the record of the NDA Government is exemplary to say the least. The attack on Parliament was thwarted – albeit by the sacrifice of the lives of a few brave security personnel. While the five terrorists who tried to gain entry into Parliament were killed, the masterminds behind the plot were traced and arrested. The trial of these persons was completed within a year. The Appeals of the convicted persons as well as those of the state against those acquitted – both before the High Court and the Supreme Court were finally disposed off by 4.8.2005.
The Supreme Court dismissed the Appeal filed by Mohamed Afzal Guru and confirmed the death sentence imposed upon him. For almost four years this sentence has not been carried out as a mercy petition filed by Mohamed Afzal Guru is pending disposal by the President of India. The exemplary method of dealing with terrorists demonstrated by the NDA Government, thus stands completely vitiated by delays attributable solely to the UPA Government.
The indecision of the Government is in stark contrast to the speed and alacrity on its part in hanging Kehar Singh one of the alleged conspirators in the assassination of Indira Gandhi.
The culprits in the Akshardham Temple complex attack have also been apprehended, tried and convicted; only their appeals are pending.
On the other hand, there is a marked reluctance on the part of the Congress/UPA Governments to detect and punish the perpetrators of terrorist crimes. It took 14 years for a Special TADA Court dealing exclusively with 1993 serial bomb blast case to convict the guilty. The judgment in that case was delivered only in 2007. Almost all those found guilty have filed appeals and doubtless, a few more years will elapse before they get their just desserts.
In the six blast explosions that shook various parts of Bombay between December 2002 and August 2003, the accused in one case have all been acquitted (though an appeal against their acquittal is pending in the High Court). In the case of three other explosions, the trial is still to commence and in the remaining two, although the trial has begun, they are some way from completion. In all these cases, the accused persons are members of SIMI, the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Pakistani Nationals. In short six years after these blasts, no one has been convicted by a court of law.
Finally, as regards the epidemic of terrorists attacks that have been the hallmark of the last five years of the UPA Government, in some cases the perpetrators have not even been apprehended. Where there have been arrests, the trials have not yet commenced. Even the case of Ajmal Kasab, a Pakistani terrorist caught red handed with volumes of evidence disclosing his role in the several terrorist acts perpetrated by him on 26.11.2008, the charge sheet filed by the Crime Branch consisting of 2000 witnesses and several documents, threatens to undermine a speedy and efficacious trial. A trial that at most should take a couple of months, seems inexorably destined for needless protraction.
While a plethora of Congress spokesmen belligerently proclaim their commitment to Zero Toleration for terrorism on the several platforms afforded to them to air their views, the empirical evidence discloses that Congress deeds do not match their words. The truth is that Congress electoral compulsions have rendered the Congress inefficacious in the fight against terrorism. In fact, Congress has no stomach to fight the new 21st Century manifestation of terrorism that threatens the Indian subcontinent : Jehadi Terrorism .
By : MAHESH JETHMALANI
March 22, 2009 at 7:31 PM
PMK Likely to Join AIADMK Front
March 22, 2009 at 8:05 PM
Good Speech by You Sir Maneesh !!!
March 22, 2009 at 8:10 PM
Hi,
DMDK is with Congress.
March 22, 2009 at 8:47 PM
In TamilNadu, The Seat Sharing by AIADMK Led Alliance is Almost Finalized :
AIADMK to contest 25 Lok Sabha Seats, PMK to Contest 7, MDMK to contest 4 and CPM and CPI to contest two each.
March 22, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Yes Ritesh Bhai, Captain is Dooming his Party. The Anti DMK Votes he got are going Back to AIADMK.
It is most Likely That DMDK would be given some 6 Seats, Congress to field 15 and DMK in 19.
March 22, 2009 at 8:51 PM
* I mean, Thanks for Posting such An an Awesome Post Sir
“An IndianAmerican”
March 22, 2009 at 8:52 PM
TN BJP is in A Dilemna, as BJP has to Wage a Lone Battle in This state, BJP is in two minds, whether to contest in ALL Seats or to contest in Only About 12-15 Lok Sabha Seats in TN.
March 22, 2009 at 9:19 PM
Hi Raj,
I am very happy, BJP should fight on all seats with full capacity. So that BJP can make own strong base in TN.
BJP should try to secure 10% votes all over TN.
Choose candidates in such a way which can create defeat for
congress candidates.
March 23, 2009 at 11:01 AM
BJP Manifesto for Andhra Pradesh : “Suraksha Andhra Pradesh”
The State unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party here on Sunday released its election manifesto “Surakshandhrapradesh” for the Assembly election promising good governance, development and security.
Releasing the manifesto at the State party office, the BJP State president, Mr Bandaru Dattatreya, said that his party’s manifesto was totally different from those of other parties —Congress, TDP, Left parties and son on. He also stressed the need to initiate discussions on the election manifestos of all political parties. He appealed to the electors to go through the manifestos of all parties thoroughly and decide themselves for whom they would caste their vote.
Reading the manifesto, Mr Dattatreya said that the forthcoming elections in the State would be historic because majority of the parties were promising separate Telangana. The BJP, which always championed the cause of smaller States, was committed to fulfill its promise of “Telangana in 100 days” after it formed Government at the Centre. Safe Andhra promise made by the BJP was not only related to terrorism but also related to right to life, right to food, right to water, right to health, right to education, right to housing and right to safety and security.
‘Aada Bidda Andalam’ Scheme
Mr Dattatreya said that his party would go to the elections with the slogans like “Water to every inch of land and work to every hand”. The party would appoint a State Commission for Children to monitor child rights besides launching “Aada Bidda Andalam” scheme under which Rs 21,166 would be deposited in the name of every girl-child on her birth, if voted to power, he added. He also assured to take up “Youth Empowerment Scheme” with Rs 1,000 crore corpus to encourage them towards entrepreneurship.
The BJP, in its election manifesto, promised that it would actively encourage passage of 33 per cent women’s reservation bill in Parliament and try to provide 50 per cent quota to them in the local bodies. Establishment of women police stations in all cities and towns, creation of fast track courts to deal with crime against women, strengthening of family courts, free education up to graduation and Rs 1,000 pension to the women above 60 years were among the promises made to the women.
The BJP also assured to prevent political interference in the educational institutions. Regularization of self-financing courses, filling of vacant posts in colleges and universities and establishment of an agriculture college and veterinary college in each district also figure in the manifesto. It also assured to set up a national mango board on the lines of Tobacco Board and Coir Board. It also assured supply of free seeds and fertilizers for green cultivation.
The saffron party also assured that the SEZ policy would be reviewed after coming to power. Alleging that Dr Rajasekhara Reddy government had turned into a “real-estate firm”, the party made it clear that it would reduce the acquisition period to 12 month as it would ensure market rate to the oustees. The BJP is also keen on closure of belt shops and controlling liquor business in the State.
Underlining the need for better governance, the party has favoured direct election to the post of Mayor in the cities with corporation status.
It’s Time BJP Presents Two Chief Ministerial Candidates : Ch Vidya Sagar Rao for Telangana State and Venkaiah Naidu for Andhra Pradesh
March 23, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Hi Raj,
Has BJP projected Ch Vidya Sagar Rao for Telangana State and Venkaiah Naidu for Andhra Pradesh ?
Is it true.
March 23, 2009 at 1:55 PM
No Dear. Not Yet. But, That was my View.
March 23, 2009 at 2:21 PM
Hi Raj,
I am 100% agree with your view. BJP will get advantage in AP and Telangana assembly. Becasue of assembly, BJP will get advantage in parliament election.
March 23, 2009 at 5:13 PM
Cardinal calls BJP ‘lesser evil’ than Marxists…
Indian Express
Posted: Mar 23, 2009 at 0318 hrs IST
MUMBAI, THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A move by the Bombay Catholic Sabha (BCS) to castigate the president of the Catholic Bishops Conference of India (CBCI) for apparently praising the virtues of the BJP over those of the Communists, has sparked a vigorous debate over the intellectual flexibility allowed by the Church and the attempts to politicise academic remarks.
Earlier this week, Cardinal Varkey Vithayathil, the Kerala-based 82-year-old head of the CBCI, was reported as saying that the BJP is a “lesser evil” compared to the Marxists. The cardinal, while speaking after the release of his biography Straight From the Heart in Kochi, was asked which of the two he considered a greater threat.
His reply: “The greater threat will certainly be the Marxist one, because it is much better to live under those who believe in a God of love and mercy than to live under those who don’t believe in God and will do anything to bring about social justice, social equality and destroy all differences of class and caste.”
March 23, 2009 at 5:30 PM
Dissidence in Andhra Pradesh Congress comes to Fore :
Dissidence in the Congress is coming to the fore with the party leadership releasing its nominees for the Assembly seats.Those who have aspired for the party tickets from their respective Assembly seats are now up in arms against the high command.
The dissidents have met and resolved to work against the party’s candidate, Ms Mallik Begum, for Vijayawada West Assembly segment. The dissidents resolved to defeat the party candidate and tell the leadership that the decision was wrong.They have also vowed to defeat the Lok Sabha candidate, Mr Lagadapati Rajagopal, who played a key role in getting Ms Mallika Begum’s candidature cleared.
Similar situation prevailed in Vijayawada Central segment where the party had named Mr Malladi Vishnu, who is the Chief Minister, Dr Y.S.Rajasekhar Reddy’s loyalist.The BCs and the Brahmins sought this seat.Though Mr Vishnu belongs to Brahmin community, there was opposition to his candidature from within the community and he may have to face resistance from them.The BCs too are up in arms against the leadership and are unwilling to back the candidature of Mr Vishnu.
At Mylavaram, the aspirants have come together to defeat the official nominee, Mr Appasani Sandeep, who is close to Mr Lagadapati Rajagopal. The former minister, Mr Chanumolu Venkatrao’s family was denied ticket and the family’s loyalists are now rallying around other aspirants like Mr Bommasani Subba Rao and Mr Jogi Ramesh.Though Ramesh was accommodated at Pedana, his followers are unwilling to support Mr Sandeep here.The three aspirants and their supporters have pledged to defeat the Congress and also work against Mr Rajagopal.
The Tiruvur Assembly segment is boiling with denial of ticket to Mr Koneru Ranga Rao’s daughter and Chatrai ZPTC member, Ms Lamu Tantiya Kumari. The party had fielded another woman from here who is new to politics. Ms Tantiya Kumari’s supporters are holding dharnas at Tiruvur and she is likely to be in the fray as a rebel candidate.
The Congress leader, Mr Sistla Ramesh, who sought Gudivada seat for him or Vijayawada Central seat for his wife Ms Vijaya Bharati, is now spitting venom on the leadership. He is likely to be in the fray as a rebel candidate and that would affect the winning chances of the Congress nominee, Mr Pinnamaneni Venkateswara Rao.
The party had nominated Mr D.Y.Das for Pamarru reserved segment much against the wishes of the local leaders. Mr Das is an outsider to the segment. The local leaders like Mr Katam Rajesh are unhappy with this selection and they are likely to work against him.
March 23, 2009 at 11:57 PM
ARRE BHAILOG
ALL THAT IS OK BUT WHO ARE THE BJP CANDIDATES FOR AP ASSEMBLY POLLS AND LOK SABHA POLLS,, ARE THEY TAKING IT SERIOSLY, THEY HAVE NOT DECLARED THEIR CANDIDATES YET …
ARE THEY CONTESTING ALL 42 LS AND 294 ASSEMBLY SEATS THEN WHY NOT DECLARE THE CANDIDATES… WHEN WILL THEY DECLARE..
March 24, 2009 at 3:38 AM
Dear Aditiya,
Yes, BJP is contesting in all seats, you need to see previous posts to find that link. They are not declaring all candidates because,
1> They are doing issue/ideology based campaign and will win seats on that basis, not on basis of candidates.
2> There will be defections in Congress, who can easly be roped in to maximize the damage in areas where BJP is not strong.
March 24, 2009 at 9:52 AM
Dear Aditya, BJP has so far Released list for 100 Assembly and 15 Lok Sabha Seats in Andhra Pradesh.
However, By This Weekend, They have to release List of Candidates for The Remaining Seats as well.
March 24, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Hi Raj,
What about TN.
March 24, 2009 at 10:48 AM
BJP Releases A List of 7 more constituencies in Andhra Pradesh :
The seven candidates for the Lok Sabha elections in Andhra Pradesh are J. Bapi Reddy (Nizamabad); Satish Agarwal (Hyderabad); Dileep Naik (Mahabubabad-ST); Kapilvai Ravinder (Khammam); Mandava Vasadeva (Ongole); Ambati Ramakrishna Reddy (Anantapur) and Harinath Reddy (Rajampet).
Only in Mehbubabad(ST), BJP has A High Chance of Winning as The BJP Leadership has Chosen The Right Candidate here.
Nizamabad would be Hard but , in Hyderabad, BJP has really given up All Hope by Placing a Dummy Candidate.
March 24, 2009 at 12:14 PM
Hi Raj,
BJP should give tickets to dissident of congress,left and congress+ in (AP,WB,TN,Kerala). So that BJP can make congress weak.
I feel BJP may get majority(worst case 240)without the help of Mamta,Jaya,TDP,TRS,PRP(That is why BJP should have aggressive fight in these states so that BJP can increase vote %).
March 24, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Hi Raj,
If BJP get good % of votes in AP,TN,WB,Kerala. In next election lot of people and alliance will come with BJP.
BJP should take this election seriously in AP,TN,WB,Kerala.
March 24, 2009 at 2:49 PM
Its now official PMK out of UPA. One more blow to UPA..and also blow to pre-poll surveyor for projecting UPA as winner
March 24, 2009 at 4:19 PM
Ritesh Bhai, Thatz Not a good Strategy, All or most of the dissidents shouldn be entertainment.
In Bengal, in The Barasat Consituency, BJP did Field a fomer communist MP.
one should act with Caution while entertaining Dissidents.
March 24, 2009 at 4:20 PM
And AWN Bhai, Dont be Surprised if UPA Draws A Blank in TamilNadu in 2009.
March 24, 2009 at 4:30 PM
Hi Raj,
He is not dissident. He can win. BJP should work hard.
I am talking about those seats in which BJP can not win( zero prsence less than 5%) at any cost just to improve vote bank and create defeat for congress. If vote bank is more than 5% then fight( do not include dissident) carefully.
March 24, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Hi Raj,
If i say include dissident, It is a part of strategy it is not 100%. Pros and cons has to been seen.
March 24, 2009 at 4:33 PM
it seems, anbu-money ramadoss wants to continue as Health Minister for the remaining period as well to fill in his coffers and will be meeting sonia maino’s advisor ahmed patel and hold discussions with gk vasan and kv thangabalu in presence of ahmed patel in Delhi.
March 24, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Not many Disidents would opt for BJP
March 24, 2009 at 5:23 PM
Hi Raj,
PMK is running away from Congress and DMK, He knows outcome of TN politics.
DMDK is immatured person. After election he will learn something.
March 24, 2009 at 5:56 PM
DMDK as of date is saying would go alone.
In AP : BJP has released a list of Another 57 Candidates for Assembly and 7 for Lok Sabha.
With This BJP has so far Cleared The Candidature for 157 Assemblies and 22 Lok Sabha Constituencies.
March 24, 2009 at 6:03 PM
TRS likely to go Alone or join hands with PRP.
Since, BJP has already Announced Candidates, There is NO Scope for BJP-TRS Alliance though Friendly Fights between BJP and TRS is on Cards.
This is A Serious Blow to Chandra Babu Naidu and The Left Front.
March 24, 2009 at 6:10 PM
AP grand alliance falls flat as TRS snaps ties :
Delivering a shock to the Telugu Desam Party, Telangana Rashtra Samiti president K Chandrasekhara Rao has announced severing relations with the grand alliance of the opposition in Andhra Pradesh.
Chandrasekhara Rao made the dramatic announcement after late Monday night after the last ditch effort to thrash out the thorny issue of seat sharing with the TDP ended in a fiasco.
Negotiations between the two parties were deadlocked for the last few days as the TRS was demanding nine more assembly seats over and above the 45 assembly seats TDP had initially agreed to leave for the party. However, the issue of Lok Sabha seats was settled as TDP accepted TRS’s demand for nine seats.
TRS had adopted an uncompromising stand on several key assembly constituencies, including Adilabad and Nizamabad town constituencies. The situation apparently went from bad to worse when TDP President Chandrababu Naidu [Images] kept a large delegation of TRS leaders waiting from 2230 hours to past midnight.
On coming to know of the humiliation of the delegation, which included his son and TRS general secretary K Taraka Rama Rao, his nephew T Harish Rao and TRS floor leader E Rajender, Chandrasekhara Rao ordered the delegation to return immediately.
An angry Rao personally called some reporters later to announce the end of relations with the TDP.
“Now the question of an alliance with the TDP does not arise. We will not ally with any party in this election. TRS will enter the fray alone and we will release our list of candidates by Tuesday afternoon,” he told the media.
According to the sources, Rao told his colleagues that it was the TDP which needs TRS to form its government and TRS does not need any body to win in Telangana region.
His announcement shocked the TDP leadership, forcing it go on the defensive. The TDP Politburo meeting on Wednesday has been postponed and party president N Chandrababu Naidu is trying to find a way out of the mess by consulting the senior party leaders.
Surprisingly, the crisis reached breaking point hours after senior TDP leader K Yerran Naidu had held talks with Harish Rao and Taraka Rama Rao on the few assembly seats and it was believed that the deadlock was broken by agreeing to give 48 assembly seats to the TRS. But apparently it was not satisfying enough for Chandrasekhara Rao and he continued to haggle for a few more seats.
A beleaguered Chandrababu Naidu also sought the help from the left leaders to solve the problem but B V Raghavulu of CPI-M refused to get involved, given the volatile nature of Chandrasekhara Rao.
However CPI state secretary K Narayana was trying to keep the dream of a grand alliance alive, saying TRS was still part of the combine to ensure the defeat of Congress party.
Now the only glimmer of hope for the grand alliance is the reported reluctance of young TRS leaders Harish Rao and Taraka Rama Rao to break away from the alliance. The duo is reportedly trying to persuade their party’s patriarch to cool down and remain with the combine.
The Grand Alliance has Finally Ended Even before it has been Formed
A Big Blow to Left Front 
March 24, 2009 at 6:17 PM
Hi Raj,
I wrote long time before, Chandra Bubu is child in politics.
He does not know basic of politics. Now have you understood.
BJP is other pole of politics. He should not left BJP.
Same thing will happen with BJD.
March 24, 2009 at 6:21 PM
Hi Raj,
Without the help of BJP or congress, no party( Amma,Kakka) in India can survive.
Problem is, BJP is not having confidence.
My stern warning to BJP, BJP should not have any alliance with TDP,Amma,Kakka,Mamta,TRS,BJD,PRP,Mayawati(is a toilet pot). Inner understanding is ok.
March 24, 2009 at 6:23 PM
oh NO!!!!
TRS is Back in Gand Alliance.
March 24, 2009 at 6:24 PM
Hi Raj,
If any party comes with BJP, then party gets direction( due alliance with BJP). Without BJP, regional parties are not having any direction. For time being they can make fool India not permanent.
March 24, 2009 at 6:25 PM
who is kakka?
March 24, 2009 at 6:25 PM
Hi,
If TRS comes back, no problem. It is also a good news for BJP.
Without BJP, whatever they do, is useless.
March 24, 2009 at 6:39 PM
Well, Krishnam Raju has Joined PRP yesterday. BJP now has to concentrate in Only 3 Lok Sabha Seats in Andhra Pradesh – The Telangana Region. Viz, Visakhapatnam(BJP Win Almost Certain), Hindupur(Very High Chances, even if TDP fields NTR’s Son, Balakrishna from here) and Vijayawada(Demands Lot of Hard Work,but, the good thing is BJP has started campaigning here and there is Huge Anti-Incumbency as well as dissidence against congress nominee and sitting MP from Bezawad while PRP and Grand Alliance are Yet to choose A Candidate, Advantage BJP)
March 24, 2009 at 6:57 PM
Dear Friends, Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency is now Reserved for MIM as The Muslim Population is as High as 70% Post Delimitation in Hyderabad. Even BJP has fielded A Weak Candidate from here as NO Strong BJP Leader wants to waste His/Her Energy in Hyderabad Lok Sabha Seat where Muslim Population is as high as 70%.
March 25, 2009 at 9:35 AM
Kerala High Court Slams State Government, Accuses CPI(M) of protecting muslim Fundamentalists(for Votes) :
In a severe indictment of the CPI(M) -led LDF government ahead of Lok Sabha polls, Kerala High court today observed that the law and order situation in the state was in shambles.
.
‘Women are afraid of walking even on busy highways, and police have become a dreaded force whom the common man shudders to approach for help,’ Justice V Ramakumar said while dismissing bail applications of three accused in a case of attempt to murder of Rahim Pukkadassery alias KMR Guru, who is heading a spiritual oragnisation in Kottayam.
‘Kannur, the constituency of Kerala Home Minister (Kodiyeri Balakrishnan) had contributed a handful of hardcore criminals to execute the operation plotted by the main accused persons,’ the court observed. Some of the accused in the case also hail from Kannur.
‘Many unemployed youths have taken up the job of killing and maiming people for rewards. Prima facie investigations revealed that the murder attempt was the handiwork of a terrorist outfit with which the accused have links,’ it said.
According to prosecution, the accused, alleged to be Muslim fundamentalists, were against the organisation and brutally attacked Rahim near here on January 10 last year.
Thinking the victim was dead, the accused escaped. Three other accused in the case were killed in an encounter in Kashmir few months ago.
Terrorism in the horrendous form is showing its ugly face in various parts of the county, threatening the country’s stability, Justice Ramkumar said.
Cases coming before the high court point that lethal weapons like swords and country bombs were increasingly being used against people by those who manufacture and stock them.
‘In an appropriate case, this court will be constrained to call for details such as investigation so far conducted to unearth the source of manufacture, supply of deadly weapons in various parts of the sate and persons or organisation connected with it,’ the judge said.
Meanwhile, Kerala home minister Kodiyeri Balakrishnan told reporters at Kozhikode that the government would move the Supreme Court in the matter.
‘The Court should have heard the government also before making such observations,’ he said. CPI(M) state secretary Pinaryi Vijayan said there was no law and order problem in the state.’ In fact, compared to several other states, the situation in Kerala has always been peaceful,’ he said.
March 25, 2009 at 9:39 AM
BJP Should Make Full Advantage of This and Give a Good Fight in Kannur, Where BJP has A Good Base.
In Kerala, BJP should Concentrate in The Following Constituencies —
1. Kasargod(High Chances)
2 Kannur(Very Hard)
3. Palakkad(Good)
4. Kozhikode/Cochin(only A Fight,likely to end up third but, should strive hard to increase the vote base)
5. Trissur(same as above)
6. Tiruvananthapuram(Hard)
March 25, 2009 at 2:34 PM
The growing indiscipline in BJP is a real concern as was exhibited in the past few days in selection of candidates in A.P.The seniors should try very hard to retain the image of the party with difference and should select the candidates with high chances of winning.I remember in the past when MIM was split in Hyderabad,it was thought Hyderabad constituency was a cake walk for BJP’s Baddam Bal Reddy.However,Party fielded Venkaiah naidu in spite of stiff resistnace from the local cadre and finally lost the seat.BJP should learn from the past ans respect local cadre sentiment and consider winnability factors.History repeats itself if you fail to learn lessons from the past.
March 25, 2009 at 7:08 PM
Well said Vishnu Ji. In Malkpet, BJP has Virtually thrown up The Seat and has given it to MIM By Not Choosing Former Deputy Mayor of Hyderabad, Sri Subash Chanderji and instead has given to A Party Senior, unless A Miracle Happens, it’s Hard for BJP to Win from Malakpet Assembly Segment in The Hyderabarad Parliamentary Constituency. However, The Good News is, though Disappointed, Subash Chanderji has Not Revolted.
March 25, 2009 at 7:41 PM
Is Krishnam Raju joining PRP a BJP Strategy?
Sensing that BJP virtually Has NO Base in Coastal AP except for Visakhapatnam,Where BJP is almost certain to Win and Bezawada(Vijayawada), where BJP has to do Hard Work,KrishnamRaju has Joined PRP!!!!!
Even after Joining PRP in The Joint Press Meet Held with Chiru, KrishnamRaju stated to Press “He Still Wants BJP to come to Power at The National Level and Form Central Government”!!!!
so, did BJP send KrishnamRaju to PRP for Post Poll Support?
March 26, 2009 at 11:52 AM
DMDK has started announcing its candidates and the number has already exceeded what the UPA could offer. NDTV with its headlines is desperately praying for DMDK to align with UPA which he will not do.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/dmdk-releases-first-list-of-candidates/439324/
March 26, 2009 at 1:43 PM
Dear Arun, it seems, The Media is more concerned for congress than anyone.
I wont be surprised if upa draws a Blank in TamilNadu this time around.
Even in Pondicherry, where congress is considered to be strong, it is bound to lose.
with Mailaduthurai going to PMK, mani shankar ayyar(one of the strongest pro jehadi and evangelical voices and a strong Anti Hindu voice in congress) is likely to bite dust.There is widespread Anger against P Chidambaram.
Clearly congress – dmk front will draw a blank in TN
March 26, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Hi,
Cogress has given big money to IBN CNN. Fourth pillar of our democracy has became corrupt.
March 26, 2009 at 4:03 PM
Not just congress, also the EvanJehadis have paid cnn and ndtv a lot
March 26, 2009 at 4:05 PM
even a child knows that AIADMK + PMK + MDMK + CPI(M) + CPI has Potential to Win All 40 Lok Sabha Seats in TN and Pondicherry.
UPA will Not be able to win even a single seat out of these 40.
March 26, 2009 at 4:11 PM
Now, people may say, I am biased when I give three seats to BJP. Viz : Kanniyakumari, Ramanathapuram and South Chennai.
In Kanniyakumari, CPM will field the sitting MP from Nagercoil(A Christian), congress too will field a christian and so would DMDK.
Thus, the christian votes(which are more than 50%) in Kanniyakumari District would be split in theee and The Hindu Votes would be Gravitated towards BJP.
as for Ramanathapuram is concerned, S.Thirunavakarasar is The Most Popular Man in Aranthangi and BJP(Particularly RSS) has A Base in Ramanathapuram and Muddukalathur. BJP has actually strengthened here after karunanidhi’s Abusal of Sri Ram.
In South Chennai, People are Quite Sympathetic to BJP.
The Good News is, S Ve Sekhar is now planning to quit AIADMK. BJP should Romp Him for Campaign as He is A Crowd Puller.
March 26, 2009 at 4:31 PM
HAVE A LOOK AT THIS ,
ABSOLUTE NONSENSE, ARE THESE GUYS DUMB….
CHAT ON IBNLIVE WITH MASTER PSEPHOLOGIST YOGENDRA YADAV
Bhavesh:Do you think varun Gandhi incident will cost BJP a lot?
Yogendra Yadav: Most such controvesies tend to remain limited to a small section of population. I think it would dent BJP;s image among the more infomred and progressive people. But these sections are not normally the BJP voters.
IT SEEMS ACCORDING TO HIM EDUCATED PEOPLE DONT VOTE FOR BJP,
MAN DONT THESE GUYS LOOK AT ORKUT.COM POLL RESULTS OR COMMENTS ON THEIR OWN SITE MOST OF WHICH ARE PRO BJP AND ANTI CONGRESS AND ANTI IBN TOO.
I CAN HARDLY FIND A BLOG ON THE NET THAT IS ANTI BJP , ALL THE BLOGS ARE PRO BJP..
March 26, 2009 at 4:50 PM
useless yogender yadav.
InFact, even a layman knows that The Well Informed and The Progressive People Form The Crux of BJP Voters
March 26, 2009 at 5:01 PM
Yes.It was a strategical move on the part of BJP to send Krishnam Raju into PRP fold.Keeping Krishnam Raju in BJP is of no use to the party,as he has failed to ensure growth of BJP in coastal are despite the fact he was MP for two times.It appears Chiranjeevi has of late realized that it is in his interest to support some alliance at national level,taken initiative and made a wise stand in favour of BJP led NDA.
March 26, 2009 at 5:41 PM
Hi,
BJP should work hard in TN. Try to secure 10% votes. And it would not loss to be AIADMK. BJP should put lot of efforts, to give defeat to Left in TN.
March 26, 2009 at 6:04 PM
hello raj,
what could the vote percent of the bjp be in andhra pradesh
March 26, 2009 at 6:35 PM
Hi,
If BJP fights with honesty then it will be more than 20% to 30%.
March 26, 2009 at 7:50 PM
Dear Aditya.
As of Date, Nothing can be said About AP. In Andhra Pradesh, there would be a lot of cross voti ng for All Parties except for congress. Because, those who vote for congress in the state will also vote for congress and TDP at the central level(The Illiterates constitute the crux of congress voters)
But, those Who vote for PRP may Not vote for the same at National Level too particularly in Urban Areas. They may Vote either for congress or for BJP.
However, in Telangana Region, BJP will come as A Strong Force and Would Win in All The Constituencies where CPM And CPI will be fielded in The T-Region as TRS and BJP have a Secret Pact. These Seats are : Nalgonda, Mahbubabad,Warrangal. In Nizamabad too, BJP has put up a strong Candidate(A Popular Doctor)
In Addition, BJP would also win Malkajaigiri,Secunderabad and Chevella Parliamentary Constituencies.
March 26, 2009 at 7:51 PM
But, I have to admit, besides Telangana, BJP has A Chance Only in Visakhapatnam, Hindupur (These two being the strongest) and Bezawada(Vijayawada, bit hard)
March 26, 2009 at 10:48 PM
Hi,
How much is the chance.
Karimnagar Shri C. Janga Reddy
March 26, 2009 at 11:07 PM
Where did You get that Info, Ritesh Bhai?
C Janga Reddy is given An Assembly Ticket and Not Parliamentary Seat.
Can You Please give the link?
March 26, 2009 at 11:10 PM
C Janga Reddy is Contesting from BhupalPalle Assembly Segment.
His name was Cleared in The First List for AP Polls Released By BJP some two weeks back
March 26, 2009 at 11:34 PM
Hi Raj
http://www.bjp.org/images/pdf/andhra_pradesh_2609.pdf
March 26, 2009 at 11:36 PM
http://www.bjp.org/images/pdf/andhra_pradesh_2609_assembly.pdf
March 27, 2009 at 2:50 AM
ok fellas!
the fun begins now, pre-poll prediction for general election. One state a day, detailed analysis. First one to go will be God’s own country – Kerala. All of you are invited to join the discussion there. cheers!
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-prediction-2009/
March 27, 2009 at 9:05 AM
Dear Ritesh Bhai, Janga Reddy is A Strong Votary of Telangana but, He is an Outsider in KarimNagar.
March 27, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Hi Raj,
Lot of inner fighting is taking place in TRS and TDP.
March 27, 2009 at 11:11 AM
But, I still Dont understand The Logic of sending Janga Reddy to Parliament.
He would have easily Won the Bhupalpalle Assembly Segment.
KarimNagar is Hard for Him.
March 27, 2009 at 11:12 AM
we All know that. Therez Huge trouble in Grand Alliance.
March 27, 2009 at 12:49 PM
Hi Raj,
I think BJP wants to support KCR. That is why, BJP has fielded weak candidate.
March 28, 2009 at 5:57 PM
C Janga Reddy Is Not A Weak Candidate. He is The Strongest Voice of BJP in Telangana. He should have been sent to Assembly, but, Probably, Ch Vidya Sagar Rao seems the former as A Threat for BJP’s Claim to Leadership(Leader of Opposition Status, Post Telangana is Formed) and sohe is being persuaded to fight Lok Sabha Elections.
March 28, 2009 at 9:47 PM
In TAMIL NADU people are waiting to take revenge against CONGRESS and DMK for the srilankan tamil issue,these are the parties betrayed tamil people and cause for the death of thousands of innocent tamil people in lanka. So, the educated real tamil people will vote against UPA (congress and DMK) huge anti congress wave is there… so there is a chance of 35 seats to be go into the favour of AIADMK alliance..TAMIL NADU IS ALWAYS DIFFERENT….
March 28, 2009 at 10:18 PM
I completely Agree with What Silva is saying.
It would be A Clean Sweep for AIADMK Front in TamilNadu.
In The Meantime, DMDK chief Captain Vijaykanth has announced candidates for 5 more constituencies thereby making it almost impossible for upa to accomodate DMDK which by far has unilateraly Annopunced candidature for 14 Lok Sabha Seats.
Though DMDK joining upa Cant be Ruled Out as candidates can be withdrawn, DMDK Chief Captain is Probably saying in Strict terms that His Party wont get contended by offering single Digit Seats for Lok Sabha Polls.
March 29, 2009 at 10:08 AM
The BJP’s prospects in Kanyakumari seat has increased with the AIADMK ally CPIM likely to nominate the sitting MP Bellaramin, Vijaykanth has already announced that the ex-MLA from Nagercoil Austin as his candidate. The Congress also will nominate a Christain for that seat which is likely to divide the Christain vote. With BJP in alliance with Sarath Kumar the Nadar vote can be harvested in their favour. So if the BJP can get around 35% of the vote thay can probably win this seat.
March 29, 2009 at 10:28 AM
Thiru Hari, Have BJP and Sarath Kumar come together?
Is it Official, Thatz Good News.
Also, in Ramanathapuram, I wish to See Thiru S. Thirunavaarasar Winning in A Four Way Contest.
March 29, 2009 at 10:44 AM
BJP launches ‘Bhay Ho’ to counter Congress’ ‘Jai Ho’
Watch it.
March 29, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Hi Raj,
This time , there are 9 parties in TN including SP and BSP.
Next election, total no. of parties will be more than 15 in TN. That time it will be easy for BJP to get parliament seats in TN. All parties will be crazy about muslim and chirstian except BJP. It would be easy for BJP to secure seats in TN.
BJP should not have any alliance in TN,Kerala,WB,AP. Inner understanding is OK on equal no. of seats.
March 29, 2009 at 3:26 PM
Ritesh Bhai, BJP anyway Does Not have any Alliance in These states.
SP And BSP are Non Entities in TN.
BSP Can Increase it’s VoteBase in AP, but in TN BSP is Insignificant.
March 29, 2009 at 3:37 PM
Hi Raj,
I am talking about long term plan of BJP. Long term also come from short term. I feel, If BJP keeps on going alone then one day BJP would secure 25% to 75% seats in TN,WB,Kerala and AP.
March 29, 2009 at 3:38 PM
Hi Raj,
I am not against of alliance but these are not realiable parties.
March 29, 2009 at 4:14 PM
It is not possible to wish away parties. Most regional or caste based parties exist due to the sense of insecurity or false pride that these parties instill in the target groups. In TN 4 parties have a state wide base. The DMK and IAIDMK are the major players while the Congress even today has about 10% vote base across the state. The Congress high command has virtually any decent leadership by imposing leaders. The stategy of aligning with state parties has meant that the state party dictates and the National party over a period of time becomes a notional party. The Vijaykanth is the fourth party with a state wide precense. He too has in many ways shown that he would ultimately like to partner the Congress.
March 29, 2009 at 7:11 PM
BJP is Yet to Announce Candidates for Zaheerabad,Mahbubnagar and Peddapally Parliamentary Constituencies.
With Congress and Grand Alliance, Announcing Muslims as Candidates and PRP not being Strong here, I Dont understand Why BJP is finding it Hard to Find A Candidate here.
Peddapally for sure BJP Cant Win.
And in MahbubNagar too as TRS Chief is An Outsider here, Encash on The same and Try to Defeat Him.
March 29, 2009 at 7:12 PM
Hari, DMK wold soon wither away post 2009 May.
once karu dies, DMK would split into many segments.
March 29, 2009 at 8:42 PM
It would be interersting to know how the vernacular media is assessing and reporting the trends in AP. In the absence of a clear trend and with the entry of a major new player (PRP) the role of media will be crucial in creating a perception that often tends to be the tilting factor.
The English media that was predicting a YSR wave has suddenly done a U turn and has started reporting that the two fronts are on level terms.
March 29, 2009 at 9:34 PM
With discontent and rebelion in almost all the parties on account of seats declaration,the scenario in A.P is really confusing and beyond the reach of analysis.It is a good time for BJP to capitalize and try to win as many seats.It was good move to candidly put forward Separate Telengana in thier election manifesto but the same requires wider publicity to reach to the public in remote areas of Telengana.It is clear now that congress is not in favour and other regional parties downplay the issue knowing fully well that they cannot do it ,as it has to be done at Delhi level.
March 30, 2009 at 9:18 AM
Hari, the vernacular Media in AP as become A Joke.
Eenaadu is biased towards TDP, while sakshi is a mouth piece of ysr family.
March 30, 2009 at 9:27 AM
With DMK Deciding to Contest from Ramanathapuram, BJP has Advantage here. I Dont understand, for what Reason, BJP is not yet clearing the names for TN.
Announce S. Thirunavakarasar as BJP’s Candidate from Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency. He has also shown Interest in contesting from here.
March 30, 2009 at 12:41 PM
The sinister design of foreign powers to prevent BJP coming to power and return of congress is clearly evident from the foreign sponsered media surveys predicting congress victory and further decline in the popularity of BJP.This is just demoralise the BJP cadre and create confusion among the voters.BJP should therefore be cautious and educate the public to defeat these antinationalist forces and not to fall in trap of these dangerous games.
March 30, 2009 at 3:16 PM
Seeing the COngress list of candidates,Its clear that COngress doesnt have suitable candidates and doesnt have any suitable strategy as well.Jaffer Sharief would have easily won from angalore Central constituency but He is contesting from Bangalore North where he wil have to face defeat and in Central Sangliana isnt that popular candidate and hence he will also loose..
So all 3 seats of Bangalore city is most likely to be won by BJP this time….
March 30, 2009 at 6:22 PM
Raj,
The BJP has announced that they will announce their alliance for Tamil Nadu on 4th April. The reason for the delay appears to be that they are hoping for some last minute split in the AIADMK left tie up.
There appears to be some sticking point between Sarath Kumar party and the BJP as most of their support base overlaps. The BJP is strong in Kanyakumari, Tenkasi, and Tuticorin apart from Ramanathapuram. Sarath wants to contest one or two of the first two and Karthik is eyeing Ramanathapuram.
March 30, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Hari. BJP Shouldnt Sacrifice Ramanathapuram, Kanniyakumari and South Chennai.
Sarath Kumar Cant contest from Thenkasi as it is Reserved for SCs.
March 30, 2009 at 8:25 PM
Thatz Great News Santesh!!!!
March 30, 2009 at 10:56 PM
Raj,
Sarath Kumar wants Tenkasi for his party.
March 31, 2009 at 5:13 PM
In Telangana area in AP, TRS party which has alliance with TDP put very weak candidates in 6 of 9 seats thus giving advantage to CON party. If TDP contested there, they would have won at least 4 of those 6. This is unfortunate that TRS would give away the seats to CON party.
April 1, 2009 at 2:32 PM
Hari, I feel, You can give A Detailed Analysis of TN Situation. or Are You Waitig for Final Anouncement of Alliances Post Seat Sharing
April 2, 2009 at 8:48 PM
Latest Developmet in TamilNadu :
The MDMK party is mulling a possible alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after reportedly being cold-shouldered by AIADMK boss Jayalalitha over seat sharing, a top MDMK party source said Thursday.
http://blog.taragana.com/n/upset-with-aiadmk-mdmk-mulling-talks-with-nda-24758/
MDMK is Reportedly upset with Jaya’s Behaviour as She is Deciding The Seats Where MDMK has to Field Candidates!!!
April 2, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Manoj, No Pro Telanganaite will Ever Vote for congress.
April 2, 2009 at 9:13 PM
I don’t have that much data and oinfo to give a detailed analysis. I will provide what ever I hear and read.
The tamil weekly magazine Kumudum has published the findings of opinion poll on 5 rural northern TN seats. As per that finding the AIADMK has comfortablew lead in 2 seats and in two it is just ahead of the DMK. The DMK has a narrow lead in Kancheepurum. Surprisingly the vote share of the DMDK is over 25% in all seats and in two seats the diff. with the DMK is only one%. The magazine has also said that majprity of the first time voters are with DMDK.
Vijaykanth has been drawing large crowds in all places. He hasc chosen to champaign in the rural hinterland and has avoided the towns and cities. This has meant that the focus has been away from him while he quitely builds his support base.
April 2, 2009 at 9:24 PM
Is there a possiblity of MDMK-BJP-DMDK alliance in TN ?
April 2, 2009 at 10:04 PM
AK Bhai, DMDK is Ruled out.
Another Development that went unnoticed is Kongu Vellalar Gounders Organization is Holding talks with BJP. Here’s The News:
Leaders of Kongunadu Munnetra Peravai,floated by the influential Konguvella gounders, a prominent community in the eastern districts of Tamil Nadu, last night called on BJP leader L K Advani at his residence in Delhi and discussed forging alliance for Lok Sabha polls.
Peravai’s president B Ramasamy and Secretary Easwaran represented the party in the poll talks, a party press release said here.
The body, which was functioning as ‘Kongu Vellala Gounder Peravai’ was recently renamed ‘Kongunadu Munnetra Peravai’ to become a political party
Gounders are Influential in North Western Districts of TamilNaduand are Strong Rivals of Vanniyars. so, if They Vote Enmasse, It’s Advantage BJP(I am Not saying in terms of Seats but atleast in Vote Percen tage)
And BJP has Declared They Will Contest from Puduchery(Pondicherry)
April 2, 2009 at 10:06 PM
But, It’s of No Consequence to us Hari.
DMDK is anyway A Pro Congress Man.
April 2, 2009 at 10:53 PM
Raj,
I do agree that as of now Vijaykanth is not inclined to support the BJP. Who would have imagined that Rangarajan Kumaramangalam and Thirunavakkarsar would join the BJP. Nowadays the political churning has meant that every additional percentage vote matters. People like Lalu and Mayawati are wooing the Brahmin vote. Incidentally Mayawathi has nominated a Brahmin for Coimbatore Lok Sabha seat. It is a only a matter of time before the DMK too joins the ‘Q’.
April 2, 2009 at 11:00 PM
In this election in Tamil Nadu the only realistic chance that the BJP has is in Kanyakunari and that too if the other parties choose Christain candidates. The BJP should use this election to have atleast 10 to 15% vote in 40 assembly segments. This would make them a viable ally and not so untouchable as they now appear.
April 2, 2009 at 11:12 PM
Hahahahahahaha
before DMK joins The Q of Wooing Brahmins, DMK would Dismantle.
As DMK woing Brahmins Wont Start until muka Dies.
April 2, 2009 at 11:14 PM
Hari, let’s wait for A Couple of Days.Vaiko’s MDMK is Quite unhappy with Jaya as she is Humiliating Him while New Entrant PMK has been given A Royale!!!!
There are Firm Reports of Vaiko Returning to MDMK fold.
And thatz Good News.
soon, The Poll Picture in TN will come out Clear
April 3, 2009 at 12:12 AM
Guys! AP CM YSR’s son-in-law is going berserk all over AP openly organizing meetings asking all Christians to vote for Congress. His supporters are murdering hindus if they protest. He left lakhs of rupees in a hotel when police raided it on information that he is distributing money in the election. He is organizing with state machinery large scale christian conversion meetings all over AP.
April 3, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Grand Alliance is turnig out to be Grinding Alliance with everyone suspicious of each other.
http://elections.ndtv.com/news_story.aspx?ID=NEWEN20090089539&type=election
Tommorow, we will come to know if anyone withdrew from the seats alloted to partners.
From the last I heard , TDP had put candidates on 22/45 seats for TRS, TRS had put 7 extra candidates in assembly seats. It might turn out to be 5-6 cornered contest in many constituencies.
April 3, 2009 at 7:29 AM
Raj,
I know it is unthinkable for us to believe that Muka will ever seek trhe support of Brahmins, but political compulsions are such and with most castes identifying with one political party or other and not one party in TN willing to even remotely been seen as a party that cares for Brahmins, the community will gladly support the first party that GENUINELY shows concern for them.
April 3, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Raj,
Who is BJPs candidate from Warrangal?? i think they are not contesting!!!
April 3, 2009 at 12:26 PM
and The EC is Openly NOT Taking any action because of naveen chawla and the evangelical funded media is simply bRefusing to make this A Headline or cover the story.
Only Eenaadu is covering this story. No other paper does.
But, the good News is Eenaadu Paper is The Most Widely and Still Highly Respected Paper among Telugus.
April 3, 2009 at 12:29 PM
V.Jaipal(A Former MLA,Got Elected in ’85 and ’89 to AP Assembly). Warrangal has become a low profile constituency as it has all of a sudden been Reserved for SCs. NO Big Leaders are in The Fray here due to the same.
Had warrangal remained unReserved, The Fight would have been between Yeraaballi Dayakar Rao of TDP and Janga Reddy of BJP
April 3, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Why was not Bangaru Laxman wife given a ticket from there
April 3, 2009 at 3:49 PM
I Think She Cant Speak Telugu.
April 3, 2009 at 11:40 PM
Good News from Telengana,
Narendra Modi to campaign in AP (read Telengana) from Apr 6th,
http://andhraheadlines.com/State/BrowseArticle.aspx?tab=1&ArtID=40980
Last trip of Mr Modi charged up BJP Cadre which is critical for BJP doing well.
I think if Mr Modi attends 10-15 meetings in AP, it will increase its assembly tally from 30 to 50 in Telengana, which will be king maker in Assembly.
April 4, 2009 at 10:03 AM
Certainly AK Bhai. And This is The Right time for Modi Ji to Campaign here.
And Save Sri Ram Sethu should be Made An Election Issue in Telangana Region.
In Telangana and Orissa Modi Ji Should Campaign(ofcourse, He has been Campaigning in Orissa) and Thatz Real Good News.
April 4, 2009 at 11:07 AM
I don’t know how people come up with these weird surveys,
Look at this one from AP,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4355032.cms
According to it
Congress 124
TDP 106
PRP 57
————-
287
Leaving 7 seats for TRS,BJP,CPI, CPM….
Dear Raj, have u heard of this agency before, I thought it might be AP specific…
April 4, 2009 at 3:11 PM
Dear AK, The Wek is a Communist Magazine run by a keralite.
the whole survey has NO Logic.
Further, how can anyone predict the exact num ber?
this shows, it was an opinionated survey whose numbers have ben hastily manipulated to present themselves as neutral and in the manipulation have forgot Logic.
April 4, 2009 at 9:49 PM
I thought so.. thanks for the insight…
April 5, 2009 at 2:05 PM
BJP’s Win in Kanniyakumari is Almost Certain Now.
CPM is fielding It’s Sitting MP from Nagercoil,Bellarin, A Xtian, DMDK has Fieded Austin, A Christian and DMK has announced Helen Davidson as it’s Candidate.
Therefore, The Christian Votes will clearly be split three way and this has Strengthened BJP’s Chances of Victory in Kanniyakumari-The Southernmost Constituency of Indian Mainland!!!
April 6, 2009 at 6:36 PM
The CPI(M) has been allotted Three Seats, The CPI too has ben given Three Seats. The PMK was Given A Royale of 7!!!
AIADMK wants to Contest 23 as Astrologers have said to her to field her Candidates in 23 Constituencies.
This leaves 4 seats.
It has to be seen whether, Vaiko, who reportedly is seeking 5 would remain in Jaya Front or Join NDA
April 6, 2009 at 7:01 PM
Raj, U are right. The BJP’s chances in Kanyakumari is extremely bright. If CPM and AIADMK go separately then it will be a 5 way contest that will greatly help the BJP.
Ela Gansean is contesting from South Chennai and he can hopefully get over 1.5 lakh votes.
Thirunavakkarasar is contesting from Ramanathapuram and if he still retains his old following he can cause a ripple or two.
All the other candidates can at best get about 5% vote.
The information from the ground is that the DMDK is a hit with the new voters and over 70 % of them are likely to favour the DMDK if they are allowed to freely cast their vote. What Vijaykanth lacks today is the muscle power to prevent the money power mainly of the DMK and to a lesser degree of the AIADMK.
April 6, 2009 at 7:31 PM
Hari, Nice to Hear Back from You
Jaya and CPM have Sealed The Deal.
CPM is contesting from Kanniyakumari, Madurai and Coimbatore.
Coimbatore is the only seat CPM can Win.
However, if Captain’s Magic Works, He can Oust CPM from the state. As Alagiri is Contestin from Madurai, it would be difficult for CPM to Win from there.
CPI is contesting in North Chennai, Thenkasi(Res) and Nagapattinam(Res).
MDMK is likely to Remain in AIADMK Front until May 16th 2009.
I dont have Any Expectations from Candidates other than Pon Radha Krishnan, Ela Ganesan and Thirunavakarasar among The BJP Candidates. I Wish All Three of Them The Best and am Hopeful, These Three Will Romp Home.
April 6, 2009 at 7:32 PM
Great News from Hyderabad!!!!
Huge Crowd at Modi Ji’s Rally in Hyderabad at Nizam Grounds!!!!
April 6, 2009 at 9:08 PM
Look at our Media :
Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee Chief D Srinivas made Abusive comments Against Hindus on April 5, 2009. But, The Media Doesnt take up this issue!!!
Mr Srinivas, addressing a meeting of the Minorities at Khilla Road in Nizamabad on Sunday night said that he would chop off the hands of those who point fingers at Minorities.
Giving the complete credit of his assuming the PCC chief post for the second term and even getting a berth in the Rajasekhara Reddy Cabinet earlier for the support from Minorities, he said he would not mind removing the hands of those who point fingers at the Minorities.
April 6, 2009 at 9:20 PM
But, The Media has NOT Taken up this issue as it would sway Hindu Votes from communal congress
April 7, 2009 at 12:31 AM
Hi Raj,
Here is the latest report from Orissa which is very encouraging and evry one will be surprise on 16th. when Orissa results start comming.
With so many senior leaders like Braj Kishore Tripathi, Bijoy Mohpatra, Dilip Ray and Archna and many others leaders joining BJP.
There appears some positive under current for the BJP in Orissa.
WEith Modi, Advani, Sushsma, Rajnath touring the orissa .Definitely there some good news for BJP in Orissa.
Modi mania shocks Naveen, Pyari
By our Corespondent
Last updated: 04/06/2009 12:32:03
Text Font Size: S- / S+
Bhubaneswar (Orissa):BJD chief Naveen Patnaik and his advisor Pyari Mohan Mohapatra are now in back foot following Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s starling revelation against the regional out’s Big Boss.
Sources said on Monday that Naveen had sought a report on Modi visit but he shocked after reading saffron surge in Orissa.
While Pyari said Modi mania could only work in Gujarat not in Orissa but sources said that BJP Rajya Sabha MP’s remark came out of frustration.
Modi, who addressed a huge public meeting at exhibition ground here, termed Naveen as a very weak Chief Minister, who even failed to protect the image of the State in national level.
The senior BJP leader also claimed that Swami Laxmananda Saraswati’s atama haunting Naveen. Therefore, the BJD chief is committing mistakes one after another.
Accusing Patnaik Government of not taking action against Swamiji’s killers, Modi said the Santh’s atma could be forcing Patnaik to commit mistakes. This disgusted soul would finish Naveen Patnaik and his Government, Modi predicted. “Still there is time for Naveen, he should book the killers and get blessings of Swamiji”, BJP’s star campaigner said.
Alleging that Patnaik too indulge in “Vote Bank Politics” the Gujarat Chief Minister said killers were not arrested to appease a particular community.
Modi who was scheduled to address a meeting at Raikia, how ever could not go to Kandhamal due to technical snag in his aircraft. He promised that he would certainly visit Kandhamal and demand arrest of killers.
The BJP’s Hindutwa Mascot explained that his failure to attend Kandhamal meeting should not be interpreted otherwise. “ Maut ko darne walon se hum nehin hein, maut ko haath mein leke ghoomtein hein”, he said.
http://www.odishatoday.com/politics/Modi_mania_shocks_Naveen_pyari_060409-8754210232659865214875421356.html
April 8, 2009 at 10:26 AM
News From TamilNadu :
BJP is Contesting ONLY in 10 Parliamentary Seats in TamilNadu:
Kanniyakumari,South Chennai,Ramanathapuram,Coimbatore,Nilgiris(Reserved-SC),Vellore,Erode(I Seriously Dont understand Why The Hell is BJP Fielding Candidates from these two Constituencies, BJP has Virtually NO Presence in Vellore and Erode),Krishnagiri,Tiruchirapally and North Chennai.
In Addition, BJP is also to contest in Pondicherry(Puducherry)
I am Surprised That BJP is NOT Contesting in Sivakasi and Tiruppur,Thenkasi(Reserved-SC) and Dharmapuri. May be Due to Seat Sharing with AISMK and Nadulam Makkal Katchi
April 8, 2009 at 11:03 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP should fight on all seats except in which it is having alliance.
BJP has to create base in TN, swimming can not learn on bedroom.
Even two if BJP gets one vote, in that case BJP should fight, because BJP is other pole of Indian politics.
I think BJP is supporting AIADMK, MDMK and PMK.
April 8, 2009 at 11:23 AM
In Constituencies where BJP is Not fighting, fo Sure They Would Support AIADMK Front except for communist Parties.
NJP and Communists will be Loking Horns in Kanniyakumari,Coimbatore(Against CPM) and North Chennai(Against CPI).
April 8, 2009 at 6:37 PM
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=BJP+to+contest+11+seats+in+Tamil+Nadu&artid=JWCPVUpI4fs%3d&SectionID=vBlkz7JCFvA%3d&MainSectionID=vBlkz7JCFvA%3d&SectionName=EL7znOtxBM3qzgMyXZKtxw%3d%3d&SEO=Lok+Sabha+elections
News About BJP’s Decision of Fielding Only A Minimum Number of Constituencies and The Candidates Who would contest from.
Puthiya Tamizhagam Leader, Krishnaswamy(A Dalit Leader) is Likely to contest from Thenkasi
April 8, 2009 at 7:50 PM
Andhra Assembly Outcome,
From couple of blogs I was going through, I get a sense of Congress being close to forming Govt.
http://www.thoughtsofanordinaryman.com/2009/03/who-will-win-2009-assembly-election-in.html
Congress+ ~ 140 -170
TDP+ ~ 90 – 120
PRP ~ 10 – 20
BJP ~ 5 – 20
Others ~ 20 – 40
Is this is political death of TDP ? Will TRS jump over to congress bandwagon if congress is short of couple of seats ? Can BJP surely cross double digit mark on its own ? Your comments….
April 8, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Yes, AK Bhai.
BJP Will Cross Double Digit Mark.
Congress would in the most favourable scenario too can get only 95-110 Assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly Elections.
TRS Will Certainly Cross over to congress.
Further, prp will sell it’s MLAs to congress.
say prp gets 30 MLAs.
some 20 MLAs would leave prp(InFact Allu Aravind Will Sell Them to yesupaada samuel reddy)
April 8, 2009 at 8:47 PM
In Addition, mim would Naturally support congress while independents will be purchased
April 9, 2009 at 3:12 AM
Hi Raj,
I was just browing though 98 election results, I was amazed to see that BJP when contest alone in AP had managed 4 seats and 18.48% votes on an Anti-Naidu Campaign.
http://ibnlive.in.com/politics/stats.php?year=1998
The seats included Karimnagar (43%), Secunderabad (49%) etc..
BJP had to join forces with TDP for forming a govt at the center. It proved disasterous. As soon Congress came back to occupy the opposition space. So, I really wish that Congress form govt with help from PRP & TRS in AP, so that BJP can regain the lost opposition space. I don’t think TDP will be in a position to ever form govt on its own in AP.
April 9, 2009 at 9:26 AM
In AP The Situation is Precarious.
BJP’s Strength is Only in Telangana and Specific Constituencies besides Telangana.
After Telangana is Carved, BJP Will Grow in Telangana but, due to Venkaiah’s Reluctance to be confined to State, BJP has NO Leader in AP Besides Telangana Leaders. In Rayalaseema(The Southerm Districts, where there is Considerable Muslim Population)and where Development is A Serious Issue. There is NO Drinking Water in Many Places in Rayalaseema, Law and Order is Another Serious Issue in Faction Ridden Rayalaseema and Electricty, Farmers Suicide and Food are other serious Issues in The Rayalaseema Region.
Post Creation of Telangana in 2009, BJP Should Concentrate in Rayalaseema. Fight for Full Five Years and By 2014, BJP would become A Formidable force in Rayalaseema(Including The Greater Rayalaseema), in Addition, concentrate on North Coastal AP. Together, They Constitute,110-112 Assembly Seats and 16 Parliamentary Constituencies.
April 9, 2009 at 1:30 PM
There Are Reports of MDMK Snapping it’s Three Year Old Alliance With AIADMK.
More Likely, MDMK is to Ally With BJP, It would be Mutually Beneficial.Vaiko would Gain Self Respect and BJP Will Get Strengthened Electorally.
April 9, 2009 at 1:36 PM
Oh!!! As Per Latest Information, MDMK is to Remain with AIADMK Combine
April 9, 2009 at 8:18 PM
YOUR PREDICTIONS WILL NOT ACCURATE. i KNOW NO BODY CAN GIVE
CORRECT VERDICT.
STILL ACCORDING TO ME THIRD FRONT WOULD FARE WELL OR EQUALLY TO INC,LED ALLIANCE OR BJP ALLIANCE THAN WHAT YOU PREDICT.
THIS IS BECAUSE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN POLITICAL SCENORIO IS SUCH.
April 10, 2009 at 8:30 AM
why NOT Fourth Front? Third Front Doesnt Even Exist.
April 10, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Forth Front will go with Congress post election.
Third Front (minus Left) will go with BJP (NDA) post election if they can reach 274.
So the question will remain which combination comes closer to that mark..
April 10, 2009 at 7:00 PM
AK Bhai, I was just mocking the one who said Third Front will form Govt. and so said “why Not fourth front” hee hee hee
turd front, fart front and filth front will disappear after may 16th 2009
April 11, 2009 at 10:27 AM
Hi Raj,
I am very happy BJP is fielding candidates in all seats of AP,WB,Orissa and Kerala.
But i am very much unhappy, BJP is not fielding candidates in
all seats(min it should be 75% of total seats in TN)of TN.
If AIADMK,PMK and MDMK want to support BJP, they will support
BJP after election also. If they do not like to support BJP,
they would not support to BJP after having alliance with BJP.
Advantage to BJP, BJP can form own base in all these state.
Because BJP is other pole of india’s politics. In future without the help of BJP these parties can not form gov in states.
April 11, 2009 at 7:00 PM
The BJP in TN should effectively use their limited manpower, moneypower and musclepower effectively and not spread them by contesting all the seats. Good performance in a few seats is better than a getting few thousand votes in majority of the seats they contest. The vernacular print media and the visual media show the BJP to a serious contender in only one seat i.e. Kanyakumari. This message gets drained into the mind of the voters and prevents the BJP in obtaining its due share of votes.
The fact that the BJP is not such an untouchable in TN can be gauged with the fact that Jana Krishnamurthy in Chennai south polled over 4 lakh votes in alliance with Jaya and lost by a mere 21000 votes to TR Balu and that too due to DMK’s standard foul play in elections.
April 11, 2009 at 9:48 PM
And Also Hari, then;way back in ’98, Tambaram,saidapet which had christian Dominated slums that were part of South Chennai Constituency. Post Delimitation, South Chennai has Become An Elite Constituency comprising of Mylapore,T Nagar,Velachery(A Good Section of Velachery is Pro BJP)
April 14, 2009 at 11:06 PM
On The Day Election Results will be announced, People would be Shocked to find out that in Maharashtra upa will NOT be able to get more than 10-12 seats.
The dalits and Minorities do Not constitute more than 21% of Maharashtra’s Vote share.
April 15, 2009 at 1:02 AM
well for BJP supporters out there, new video, desh raag by BJP
April 15, 2009 at 1:25 AM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4396986.cms
April 15, 2009 at 6:20 AM
April 15, 2009 at 4:38 PM
In AP only one state which is most devolapd state in India in last 5 years.
Rajiv Arogya sree,Finance schem with intrest @ .25 pisa , 2 rs rice,108 and 104,Indira Housing Sceam,200 Rs pension schems for old people, 500 to 2000 Rs.pensions,Rajiv Yuva sakthi for Young people lot of good activites more than he promised at the time of 2004 elaction.
He is great.If people having consious They sholud vote for Congress.
April 15, 2009 at 5:19 PM
BullShit, AP has gone Backward by 20 years under ysr.
All Only on Paper and Widespread Publcity.
AP Developed only in the number of Evangelized lowlives and as A Jehadi Hub over the past 5 years under congress rule
April 15, 2009 at 6:14 PM
The Sting CD on CBN exposes TDP, I just wish Telegu Channels broadcast it enough, I know NDTV did broadcast it, If people come to know if TDP’s Anti-Telengana Stand, surely all BJP will get more seats against TDP canidates in Telengana…
http://election.rediff.com/report/2009/apr/15/loksabhapoll-on-poll-eve-a-cd-that-can-sting-naidu.htm
What has caused a stir is that the audio also contains Naidu’s stinging remarks against Telangana Rashtra Samiti and the Left Parties who are TDP’s partners in the Grand Alliance. The remarks also put TDP’s commitment to Telangana state under shadows of doubt as Naidu is heard saying in the taped conversation that he was compelled to take pro-Telangana line by “unavoidable circumstances”, and referred to the Telangana Rashtra Samiti president K Chandrasekhara Rao as “unreliable”
The teleconference was between Naidu and senior party leaders like Kadiam Srihari, Ummareddy Venkateshwarulu, K Vijayrama Rao, E Dayakar Rao and many others.
In the recorded conversation Naidu was heard asking the party leaders not to hesitate to spend the money and ensure that money reaches the booth level committees. Reminding the colleagues that he had not asked for any such thing in the last elections, Naidu says, “We have to win this time at any cost.”
April 15, 2009 at 6:52 PM
Good News AK Bhai,People of Telangana are Already Aware That ONLY BJP Can Realize Telangana for Them.
April 16, 2009 at 12:25 PM
Dear all
Plz. read the link below, what even The Hindu, a known left-leaning and highly anti-BJP newspaper, is writing about BJP chances in Andhra Pradesh.
http://www.hindu.com/2009/04/16/stories/2009041659060200.htm
April 16, 2009 at 1:23 PM
Vikas Ji, Many Though, I Was Dreaming When I Mentioned The same!!!
I Still Remember, You Rubbished my Views on AP When I Asserted the same in January-Feb
However, The Hindu has Forgot About Chevella.
The Fact That Baddam BalRam Reddy(Yeah, He has The Name of BalRam Ji and True to His Name, He Galvanizes All Hindu Votes and is A Threat to MIM Goons, He Wins Against All ODDS in Karwan, A Muslim Dominated Constituency in Hyderabad from where to ensure MIM’s victory, congress fields Hindu Candidates) is Fielded from here and His name was Formalized By December itself!!!
And To Those Who Dont Know Much About Him : It is He, Who Always Polled Very High in Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency(Pre-Delimitation, the current Hyderabad Parliamentary constituency has 70% muslim population)and came in Striking Distance of Beating MIM’s Owaissi.
April 16, 2009 at 1:24 PM
As Elections Draw Closer, People in The Anti-BJP Media have Finally Realized that More They tried to waterdown BJP’s Chances through Opinionated Survey, More The BJP Supporter and Loyalist and Sympathizer got Motivated and Determined to Vote for BJP
April 16, 2009 at 1:25 PM
5-7 Lok Sabha seats are Sure for BJP in Andhra Pradesh.
April 16, 2009 at 2:45 PM
Dear Raj
I had never rubbished your ideas anytime.
I had only looked for ground figures and even at several times substantiated them; if u rememnber ihad forwarded MLC elections results & figures, previous LS elections (specifically 1998) results.
Even, if u felt like I had not give due respect to your ideas. Really, i make a humble request I am very sorry.
But Raj I always look for micro ground realities and then only accept any argument. And also I highly value your micro ground level information particalurly about Andhra and several TN seats. I had learn a lot from your posts and collected vital information.
OK! forget these things but now u will appreciate what I had been writing regularly about the opinion polls. I had always said, these polls will gradually change their language from 2 months back to pre-polling and post-polling. It is happening. One months back in Mar., they were giving 175 app. to NDA with Congress single largest party much ahead of BJP,
now they are putting NDA at 200 around BJP & Congress at almost equal no. and
subsequently, after one month in exit polls they will project NDA above 225 and NDA will end up 250-260 in final counting.
April 16, 2009 at 4:48 PM
Vikas Ji.
I Apologize.
I didnt Mean Anything in Negative about You.
I was Just stating That in Lighter Vein.
But, in The First Place You felt, I have Supported BJP Against The Ground Reality.
NO Hard Feelings Please.
And We Need Your Input on UP for The First Two Phases.
April 16, 2009 at 4:53 PM
Vikas Ji, The Reason Why Micro-Management is NOT so Important for BJP in States Where BJP is NOT so Popular, but, yet is expected to Win A Considerable Number of Seats is : In Such states Like AP,TN;BJP is NOT Present in All Constituencies and even where Present is Only Amongst The Urban Middle Class Who Dont Make Fuss during Elections.BJP is NOT well Known and There is NO Awareness of National Issues among The Rural Population and thereby, these opinion Polls which are conducted largely in urban slums and rural areas in these states make it appear that These are Zero Zone States for BJP. But, The Fact is, BJP is Strong in Certain Specific Constituencies, Particularly, In The Elite Constituencies
April 16, 2009 at 5:30 PM
News From TamilNadu:
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Sarath+clinches+deal+with+BJP&artid=IZ%7cQ9w44PvQ%3d&SectionID=vBlkz7JCFvA%3d&MainSectionID=vBlkz7JCFvA%3d&SEO=Actor-politician+R+Sarath+Kumar&SectionName=EL7znOtxBM3qzgMyXZKtxw%3d%3d
Hari, Need You Input.
Now, BJP Winning Kanniyakumari is A Certain, as Karthik(A Thevar) too is with BJP, which again has Put A Thevar Candidate, Thirunavukarasar in Ramanathapuram, where Thevars are Large in Population, BJP has got higher Chances of Winning in Ramanathapuram as well.
South Chennai, is An Elite Constituency and Thatz The Primary Reason, People feel, BJP Will Win from here, further, A 4 Way Split will be Advantage BJP
April 17, 2009 at 12:47 AM
Based on the feedback received from Maharashtra, Jharkhand, hatisgarh, Bihar & UP, I guess BJP led NDA has to wait till 2014 for tasting power. Minorities, SC/STs have voted in a big way in Phase I. Way it is going BJP may end up with 120-125 seats only and NDA at 165-170 seats.
Based on what I have gathered from preliminary sources is given below.
1) Maharashtra : UPA sweep in Vidharbha (UPA = 7-8, NDA = 2-3) and advantage in Marathwada (UPA = 2-3, NDA = 0-1)
2) Jharkhand : UPA has upper hand (UPA = 3-4, NDA = 0-1, Others = 1-2). Yeshwant Sinha, Karia Munda may lose.
3) Orissa : INC sweep (INC = 6, BJP+ = 1, BJD/NCP/Left = 3)
4) Bihar : NDA & RJD+ neck and neck (NDA = 7, RJD+ = 6)
5) UP : INC/BJP wash out. Main fight between SP & BSP (BSP = 8-9, SP = 4-5, BJP = 1-2, INC = 0-1). Yogi Adiyanath, Murli M Joshi may lose.
6) Assam = INC upper hand (INC = 2, BJP+ = 1)
7) Chattisgarh : INC is on a road to recovery. Local level anti-incumbency against sitting MPs is peaking. (BJP = 6-7, INC = 4-5). BJP has miscalculated on this issue.
North East : INC has an upper hand (INC = 4 , NDA = 2, Left = 1)
I was surprised by the feedback and am cross-checking to be really sure.
Would give the final estimates tomoprrow by 8PM after cross-checking with other sources.
April 17, 2009 at 7:24 AM
Raja, BJP Will WIN A Minimum of 3 Seats from where they went to polls in Orissa
The Tribal Belt is A BJP Stronghold.
BJD soeant count in The Tribal Region.
April 17, 2009 at 7:02 PM
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/election2009/index.php?issueid=&id=37320&option=com_content&task=view§ionid=90&secid=0
Owaisi thrashes TDP agent
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Hyderabad, April 17, 2009
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Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi of the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen beat up a polling agent of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) during polling on Thursday.
Owaisi is alleged to have taken the law into his own hands after he got information that the TDP polling agent was influencing voters in Mughalpura in Hyderabad which went to the polls in the first phase of the Lok Sabha polls on Thursday. The victim has not filed a complaint with police.
The incident was condemned by almost all parties.
BJP ideologue Sudheendra Kulkarni said the act cannot be justified as there is no place for muscle power during elections.
Congress Working Committee member Keshav Rao called the incident very unfortunate.
April 17, 2009 at 7:08 PM
http://www.greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=14611&cat=15&scat=39
Fact Sheet: BJP May Surprise In Telangana
This is the observation came out from majority polling booths those have seen the pulse of voters in Telangana region. BJP was no way considered to be strong before first phase of elections, but on the actual polling day, observers have noticed hidden strength of the party.
Now experts say that BJP may give surprise in Telangana region getting 5-10 MLAs and 2-3 MPs. Another surprise is that some say that it may grab second position among some Parliament and Assembly seats as well. One thing is for sure is BJP’s vote share will increase drastically this time. Many places reported that cross voting for Lok Sabha to BJP in the places like Secundrabad, Adilabad, Mahaboob Nagar , Malkajgiri, Karim Nagar and Chevella is observed.
We need to wait for another one more month to see what is going to Happen.
April 18, 2009 at 12:21 AM
Guys this indicates who Hyderabadis voted for in the recent elections in Hyderabad and especially in lok sabha , atleast it is an indication of who the youth prefer especially especially the rich urban informed youth. I voted for Bandaru Dattatreya and K laxman in my constituency
http://www.orkut.co.in/Main#CommPollResults.aspx?cmm=6574&pct=1239328328&pid=219763569
April 18, 2009 at 1:26 AM
Hello Aditya, The link shows my personal orkut community page. Are there some search key words ?
April 18, 2009 at 1:13 PM
AK go tyo hyderabad community on orkut which has 123000 members and in it therre is a poll on who the hyderabadis would vote in ls elections
April 20, 2009 at 7:16 PM
hi Shankar,
what about the correption. i have full consious on jagan reddy correption. they are just looting the state as if it is their ancestor property. i beleive any educated person wont vote for congress.
April 21, 2009 at 11:31 AM
Dear all
Where Jayalalitha AIADMK and MDMK-PMK will go post poll, the below link gives enough indications.
http://hindi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4427033.cms
April 23, 2009 at 1:44 AM
Congress has some strong contendors like Sangliana from Bangalore. Maybe a change in Govt can help improve infrastructure here. Looking forward to the Congress days in Karnataka.
April 23, 2009 at 9:53 AM
Vikas Ji, need You Analysis on UP
April 23, 2009 at 1:44 PM
What are the rrends for AP in 2nd phase?
April 23, 2009 at 2:07 PM
Phase -II in AP seems to be A Battle Primarily between congress and TDP
PRP is NOT Being Taken Seriously.
BJP Isnt A Contender in This Phase of AP
April 23, 2009 at 6:14 PM
Snagliana being strong contender is joke of the century
He will definitely be in THird place… The battle is between BJP and JDS in Bangalore Central
April 23, 2009 at 11:35 PM
in south india inc will get 41 + dmk.
April 24, 2009 at 12:20 AM
@gsmeena
promiseofreason is aready telling about INC in south(Karnataka/AP/Kerala/TN) 37.which is almost same as yours …
April 24, 2009 at 8:13 AM
congress will get only around 25 seats and even with DMK, VCK,IUML and some minor allies in Kerala, it wont cross 30 Mark.
In Karnataka, congress would get Only 3 seats
in AP about 7-10
in TN —- NIL(DMK and VCK —3+1)
in Pondicheryy — 1
in Kerala, congress + would get 10-12
April 29, 2009 at 3:47 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
May 2, 2009 at 12:36 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.
May 14, 2009 at 5:49 PM
Watch ap election results 2009 live here at
http://tv9kannadalive.blogspot.com/
http://tv9kannadalive.blogspot.com/
http://onlineelectionresults.blogspot.com/
http://online-election-results.blogspot.com/
May 16, 2009 at 7:44 AM
http://sify.com/news/election/loksabha_2009_results/
Check out Live Results Online Latest Lok Sabha Elections Results 2009
Lok Sabha Elections results 2009, Watch Live Videos Counting Votes, Andhra Pradesh Election Results, Assam Election Results,
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Results, Jammu Kashmir Election Results, Jharkhand Election Results, Tamil Nadu Election Results and more results Only On
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June 1, 2009 at 10:55 AM
Please, can you tell me few more things about Andhra Pradesh, I really like your blog… Thank you.