by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
June 1st, 2009 at 10:55 AM
Please, can you tell me few more things about Andhra Pradesh, I really like your blog… Thank you.
May 16th, 2009 at 7:44 AM
http://sify.com/news/election/loksabha_2009_results/
Check out Live Results Online Latest Lok Sabha Elections Results 2009
Lok Sabha Elections results 2009, Watch Live Videos Counting Votes, Andhra Pradesh Election Results, Assam Election Results,
Bihar Election Results, Goa Election Results, Gujarat Election Results, Haryana Election Results, Himachal Pradesh Election
Results, Jammu Kashmir Election Results, Jharkhand Election Results, Tamil Nadu Election Results and more results Only On
http://sify.com/news/election?vsv=smm
May 14th, 2009 at 5:49 PM
Watch ap election results 2009 live here at
http://tv9kannadalive.blogspot.com/
http://tv9kannadalive.blogspot.com/
http://onlineelectionresults.blogspot.com/
http://online-election-results.blogspot.com/
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:36 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.
April 29th, 2009 at 3:47 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
April 24th, 2009 at 8:13 AM
congress will get only around 25 seats and even with DMK, VCK,IUML and some minor allies in Kerala, it wont cross 30 Mark.
In Karnataka, congress would get Only 3 seats
in AP about 7-10
in TN —- NIL(DMK and VCK —3+1)
in Pondicheryy — 1
in Kerala, congress + would get 10-12
April 24th, 2009 at 12:20 AM
@gsmeena
promiseofreason is aready telling about INC in south(Karnataka/AP/Kerala/TN) 37.which is almost same as yours …
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:35 PM
in south india inc will get 41 + dmk.
April 23rd, 2009 at 6:14 PM
Snagliana being strong contender is joke of the century
He will definitely be in THird place… The battle is between BJP and JDS in Bangalore Central
April 23rd, 2009 at 2:07 PM
Phase -II in AP seems to be A Battle Primarily between congress and TDP
PRP is NOT Being Taken Seriously.
BJP Isnt A Contender in This Phase of AP
April 23rd, 2009 at 1:44 PM
What are the rrends for AP in 2nd phase?
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:53 AM
Vikas Ji, need You Analysis on UP
April 23rd, 2009 at 1:44 AM
Congress has some strong contendors like Sangliana from Bangalore. Maybe a change in Govt can help improve infrastructure here. Looking forward to the Congress days in Karnataka.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:31 AM
Dear all
Where Jayalalitha AIADMK and MDMK-PMK will go post poll, the below link gives enough indications.
http://hindi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4427033.cms
April 20th, 2009 at 7:16 PM
hi Shankar,
what about the correption. i have full consious on jagan reddy correption. they are just looting the state as if it is their ancestor property. i beleive any educated person wont vote for congress.
April 18th, 2009 at 1:13 PM
AK go tyo hyderabad community on orkut which has 123000 members and in it therre is a poll on who the hyderabadis would vote in ls elections
April 18th, 2009 at 1:26 AM
Hello Aditya, The link shows my personal orkut community page. Are there some search key words ?
April 18th, 2009 at 12:21 AM
Guys this indicates who Hyderabadis voted for in the recent elections in Hyderabad and especially in lok sabha , atleast it is an indication of who the youth prefer especially especially the rich urban informed youth. I voted for Bandaru Dattatreya and K laxman in my constituency
http://www.orkut.co.in/Main#CommPollResults.aspx?cmm=6574&pct=1239328328&pid=219763569
April 17th, 2009 at 7:08 PM
http://www.greatandhra.com/ganews/viewnews.php?id=14611&cat=15&scat=39
Fact Sheet: BJP May Surprise In Telangana
This is the observation came out from majority polling booths those have seen the pulse of voters in Telangana region. BJP was no way considered to be strong before first phase of elections, but on the actual polling day, observers have noticed hidden strength of the party.
Now experts say that BJP may give surprise in Telangana region getting 5-10 MLAs and 2-3 MPs. Another surprise is that some say that it may grab second position among some Parliament and Assembly seats as well. One thing is for sure is BJP’s vote share will increase drastically this time. Many places reported that cross voting for Lok Sabha to BJP in the places like Secundrabad, Adilabad, Mahaboob Nagar , Malkajgiri, Karim Nagar and Chevella is observed.
We need to wait for another one more month to see what is going to Happen.
April 17th, 2009 at 7:02 PM
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/election2009/index.php?issueid=&id=37320&option=com_content&task=view§ionid=90&secid=0
Owaisi thrashes TDP agent
Headlines Today
Hyderabad, April 17, 2009
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Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi of the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen beat up a polling agent of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) during polling on Thursday.
Owaisi is alleged to have taken the law into his own hands after he got information that the TDP polling agent was influencing voters in Mughalpura in Hyderabad which went to the polls in the first phase of the Lok Sabha polls on Thursday. The victim has not filed a complaint with police.
The incident was condemned by almost all parties.
BJP ideologue Sudheendra Kulkarni said the act cannot be justified as there is no place for muscle power during elections.
Congress Working Committee member Keshav Rao called the incident very unfortunate.