1. bala

   reg Tamil Nadu, your analysis ignores the role of DMDK. Vijaykanth polled nearly 9 % of the vote in 2006 assembly elections . He repeated the performance in the local body elections a year later. DMDK even almost pushed ADMK to third place in the two bye elections in 2007

   Vijaykanth was not a factor in 2004 lok sabha polls and most of the people outside tamil nadu don’t realise that he is the joker in the deck now. He is being effectively wooed by DMK, congress, ADMK, BJP and the communists. His vote bank holds the key. And since his is a largely anti-DMK and Naidu votebank, ADMK and MDMK stand to lose if DMDK contests alone or forms some sort of third front. And you have given MDMK and PMK 3 seats each. They can’t win a single seat if they contest alone. They don’t have the strength to win any single parliamentary constituency

   Your Split up of TN seats resembles the 1998 election. This time the scene is completely different. Here are the possibile coalition scenarios

   1) DMDK + ADMK + BJP + MDMK + PMK = NDA Sweep
   But DMDK eats into MDMK vote bank in the south and PMK vote bank in the north. So whether Vaiko and Ramadoss are willing to fuel Vijaykanth’s growth remains to be seen

   2) DMDK + ADMK + BJP = NDA majority but not outright sweep, maybe 30 seats

   3) ADMK + BJP + MDMK + PMK with DMDK as third front = 50-50 split for NDA and UPA

   4) DMK + CONG + CPI + CPM + DPI + DMDK = UPA majority may be 30-35 seats

   Jun 28th, 2008

2. PARTHA

   You are absolutely correct bala, Vijaykanth is a only one to be a alternate for DMK (party will expire after M.Karunanidhi) and ADMK (Already in sick).

   Jul 6th, 2008

3. sarathi

   The interesting thing is the election commission announced percentage of vote received by individual parties after 2006 assembly election and said DMDK got 9%. But they refused to announce the same after local body election.

   Jul 6th, 2008

4. Raj

   Every politician has started to copy the policies of Captain.Captain said in his election manifesto that he wouldvgive 10 kg free rice every month,immediately Jaya said she would give 15 kilo rice.When Captain opened free computer classes in Viruthachalam,Vaiko started in Kalinkappatty.When Captain asked free cable connection with TV Ramadass also reiterated the same.Captain said ration goods will reach the houses,now in someother way MK is planning to give packed articles. Captain had already requested the government to allow palmara climbers to prepare toddy as it is less in alchohol contents.Now most recently Sarathkumar has demanded the same to the goverment.So Captain is the inspiration to all politicians in Tamilnadu

   Jul 6th, 2008

5. Kiranjith

   and more actors followed by him…..
   Karthick and Sarath Kumar

   Jul 7th, 2008

6. SHanthesh

   Hi

   Seeing the recent political analysis, It seems that BJP is likely to win 9 out of 11 seats in North Karnataka.Raichur is 50-50 chance for both BJP and COngress .Gulbarga a striong hold of congress..

   BJP will surely win all 3 seats of coastal Karnataka and 2 out of 3 seats of central karnatakl(Chitradurga being 50-50)

   BJP will win 4 out of 5 seats in Bangalore region.One may go to COngress

   BJP is likely to win 2 seats in other old Mysore region(Mysore and TTumkur).Kolar chance of BJP is high.JDS will win 2 seats.Congres is likely to win Chamarajanagr seat

   So
   BJP’s high chance in 21 seats
   Congress sure of 3 seats
   JDS sure of 2 seats
   50-50 chance between BJP and COng in 2 seats.

   I predict atleast 21 seats for BJP from Karnataka

   Jul 8th, 2008

7. raja hyd

   In the analysis about AP you didn’t take into account recent elections which can be considered the biggest poll survey bcuz elections were conducted in all 10 districts. Barring the Hyderabad city results where there are lots of non telangana settlers who are against telangana..TRS got a 37% vote where as TDP got 29% and congress only 25%. Now with Devendar out of TDP and break up in TDP and lot more to jump on Devendar wagon and with arrival of chiranjeevi who is going to break major portions of congress and TDP and little of TRS(like 3 to 5 percent whereas for congress and TDP could be anything like 10 percent) he could cause a death blow to congress and TDP vote back though he may not emerge a winner in telanaga. With TRS and NNTP tying up and Congress fighting on its own TDP with CPM or chiranjeevi on his own or with CPM TRS and NNTP and BJP could win all the seats in Telanagana (11). And in andhra 8 each for congress TDP and Chiranjeevi with others getting the rest. But if TDP ties up with others in telanagana Chiru may get 10 in andhra and congress may get more than 10 in andhra.And telanagana combine might sweep all the seats in Telangana.The news channels TV9 ,Gemini and others are congress mouth pieces so they always try to spread it that TRS and telangana are gone but the sentiment is very much there and it could show its full impact on national politics this year.TRS combine will get 9+ and congress is out of the game.

   Jul 17th, 2008

8. Siva

   I agree with the karnakara and kerala states predict. But I not agree with Andhra pradresh and Tamil nadu states predict. In Andhra, TRS will sweep more number of constituencies in the Telugana region. TDP will win 25-30 with BJP allies. And the ruling Congress failed in all departments in the Andhra and also Central Since Congress win below 10 numbers in this state.

   In Tamil nadu, DMDK is grooming in to the major party they proved their strength in last elections. People of tamil nadu looking for a new party to rule, Because DMK & ADMK are ruled randomly last 50 Years. So DMDK sees to get more 20+ seats to allies with the national parties.

   Jul 23rd, 2008

9. Raj

   In Karnataka BJP would make a Clean sweep as JD(S) of Dewe Gowda is Tying up with BSP and Communists. BSP would make a dent into INC Vote Bank and therefore BJP would win about 21 Seats in Karnataka.

   In Kerala BJP Can Win Two Seats this time.

   In Andhra Pradesh, Chiru Sweep in The Central & Northern Coastal Districts, while in Southern Coastal Districts and in Rayalaseema, Congress would make a clean sweep.
   In Telangana, if TRS ombines with TDP, Devendra Goud with BJP and Communists with Chiru, then BJP-Dev endra Goud would emerge as clear Winners leaving behind TDP-TRS combine and congress while Chiru-Communists-Lok Satta would draw a blank in Telangana.

   So, Finally The Picture in AP would be : INC-MIM ,Majlis(Hyd) = 14
   chiru+lok satta(of Jai Prakash) + Commies = 14, TDP+TRS+BSP=7,
   BJP+ Devendra Goud =7
   so, TDP would be the real loser in AP

   TN , The most likely pre-poll alliances would be : ADMK+BJP+PMK+MDMK(Vaiko)+Dr.Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party , This would Win about 20 seats
   DMDK(Vijay Kant)+ Communists+BSP may get around 14 seats
   and This leaves DMK+congress combine with 5+1(Pondicherry, wnhere Congress CM enjoys goodwill of People), PS that I am giving DMK - Congress combine more seats then I actually should have

   Jul 26th, 2008

10. Muthu krishnan

    —-> It is likely to be DMK holds all its allies except PMK and got enough respect to people PRECENTLY, even PMK joined hand with ADMK+BJP+MDMK .

    —–>But it is seeming to be ADMK allies will get more seats as DMK lost its popularity as unable to stop price hike

    ——>As far as DMDK is concerned, CAPTAIN definitely get enough respect to the people(IF NOT JOINED HANDS WITH ANY PARTIES)

    ——->I numerically not want to pointed out any seats but ADMK will get 20-23 seats only if they form allies with BJP,PMK,MDMK

    ——–>But PMK likely to joined hand with cong.(as ramdoss mentioned always) so he might gather his chance to join UPA

    ——–>If DMK holds all its allies including PMK have a nice chance to get around 15-18 seats NECK to NECK with ADMK

    ——–>But it is a nice chance to DMDK to get BULK amount of votes
    (up to 15 to 20 percent) improving a lot from its past elections if stand alone
    ———->So DMDK has a reasonable chance to get 3-4 of 5 seats which is a step forward to captains future plans

    ———>It is the time to prove Sarath kumar too (but i don’t think he get enough as he has no reasonable masses since he even unable to prove himself in 1996 election ( as a DMK canditate) in thirunelveli losing it with ADMK canditate)

    ——->Both Sarath and karthik get around 2-5% of votes if they allies together not even get deposit as it is clear for me

    ——–>splitting Nadar and Thevar votes from Congress and ADMK respectively by these two hasn’t have any matter to SPEAK a lot

    Jul 26th, 2008

11. Reddy

    I am expecting this will be the scenario in 2009 election(If held in summer)
    120-125 TDP
    70-75 Chiru+
    45-55 Cong+
    25-30 CPI+CPM+TRS+devender Goud(NTP)(0-2)
    20-25 BJP+
    3-4 MIM+

    Jul 27th, 2008

12. Raj

    Dear Reddy, Your Arithmatic seems Bereft of Logic.
    I am Staunch Anti Congress Man and am in Particularly against Yesupada Samuel Reddy and Sonia Maino.
    But, let’s be closer to Reality.
    With The Loss of Devendra Goud, TDP has lost Morale in Telangana.
    Nava Telangana Praja Party of T. Devendra Goud and TRS are unlikely to join Hands.
    Most likely, NTPP AND BJP Would be Allies.
    KCR has also lost credibility and would further lose so if he joins hands with NCB Naidu, who is firmly against the creation of Telangana.
    Chiru would eat into TDP’s votes and most likely TDP would be reduced to Kammas and Madigas who support them.
    with Kapus population ranging from 18-22% , most likely, a Majority of these would vote for chiru+lok satta+ Communists combinme except in telangana as they are against the formation of telangana.
    In this battle, due to fiercely fought triangular contests in Costa and Rayalaseema(here chiru may not find much support) and Quadrangular fight in Telangana.
    Certainly, the final Tally would be much closer with NO Formation nearing the half way mark
    This leaves Congress with 95-105
    Chiru with 65-70(Mostly in Coastal Region)
    BJP-NTPP(Assuming a Sweep in Telanagana and some gains for BJP elsewhere) 50-60
    and TDP-TRS-BSP with 60-70
    others like MIM and Independents with 5-10

    Jul 27th, 2008

13. Raj

    Dear Muthu Krishnan, The DMK has lost all its Allies except for Congress.
    The Left Parties are likely to Join Vijay Kant’s DMDK, but how far DMDK can make an Impact in National Eletions has to be seen.
    so far, He has NOT made any Staement on National Politics and what His Party’s Stand is.
    However, going by the present trend, He is most likely to playh safe being unattached, as Alliance with Left Forces for the upcoming elections Dont mean a thing in a State like TN.
    DMK-Congress are going to have a Seat Adjustment of 25 and 14+1 for the Parliament Elections.
    PMK is a Fence sitter and sensing who would Win the elections would go with them.
    As DMDK and PMK are Staunch Rivals,PMK can only opt with ADMK led Alliance.
    One Interesting Aspect is how would DMK-Congress Alliance deal with Dayanidhi Maran, The Estranged Grand Nephew of MuKa

    Jul 27th, 2008

14. Anbu

    I think in Kerala the BJP could surprise the pundits with some win. Don’t know the exact number.

    In Tamilnadu PMK could be shunned by both Jayalalitha and MK. and would be facing its waterloo as a political party. DMDK would find itself stranded again in the middle. All said and done it is basically a Naidu political outfit. Sarathkumar’s Nadar outfit and Karthik’s Thevar party won’t be cutting much ice either. The commies and the dalit parties could get accommodation with the DMK-Congress alliance though the Communists have a lot to explain this for joining an alliance that they tried to vote out of power. But then they don’t give a damn as long as they can win a seat or two!

    There is lot of price rise, inflation, unemployment etc. working as anti-incumbency and DMK cannot cannot continue the hoodwinking with the color TV scheme. The SSCP is a white elephant through which money is ploghed back to the party leaders and it is going to end and their tirade against Hindus are not going to be appreciated. The DMK itself is on the verge of splitting but the grand old man is keeping the bunch together with his frail old hands. Congress too is not a cohesive party with so many back stabbers lurking against each other in darkness. Only Sonia’s money bag is holding them together. God knows if this UPA combine has any appeal left among the masses. What happened to JJ in the last parliamentary election might happen to UPA in this parliamentary election. Don’t be surprised!

    Jul 31st, 2008

15. Anbu

    In Karnataka I agree with Raj’s analysis. BJP is enjoying the honeymoon with people!

    In Andhra Congress may not repeat the results of the last election. It may result in a hung assembly. Parliamentary election could bring a three way split.

    Jul 31st, 2008

16. Raj

    Dear Anbu, but, still I feel PMK Would Shamelessly ally with JJ. They have proved that ll they want is a few MP Seats and Plump Cabinet Positions.
    or else, from ‘98 till date, howz it that PMK is in Cabinet ?
    They have NO Logic and are just a Caste based outfit.
    In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana may see A Four Cornered Contest if BJP And Dendra Goud’s Nav Telangana Praj Party Allign. If They do, they would be the clear winners in The Telangana Region.
    In any Case, TDP And Babu would be the biggest losers in All three Regions.

    Jul 31st, 2008

17. Ravi

    Hi All,

    DMDK growing up.But I think it is not eligible to stand alone in Mp elections. Because anyway MP election depends upon Prime Minister position. So better making alliance with UPI is very useful to Captain and as well as continue in state elections too. My guess now DMDK having 25 - 28 %. There is only the reason No alliance with DMK and ADMK(This word from Captain). So let us see what happen?

    Aug 7th, 2008

18. Raj

    Latest Developments in TN Indicate Re-Allignment of Forces in There.
    Flash Flash Flash
    AIADMK Chief Jayalalita is Likely to Ally with Maywati and Communists, with MDMK Already in their kitty, soon PMK is ready to Join this Alliance and Ditch DMK.
    This Leaves The Realligned forces in TN as :
    DMK-INC-Dalit Panthers of India(if it chooses to contest National Elections), This is most likely to be a loser
    AIADMK-BSP-PMK-MDMK-CPI(M)-CPI, umn, a Real Grand Alliance!!!
    Likely to Win A Majority of seats :25-30
    Most likely The Estranged Maran is likely to Join BSP or ontest as BSP Candidate in 2009.
    This leaves, BJP , Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party, A .C. Shanmugam’s New Justice Party in The Wilderness.
    Is anyone left?
    Yes, and That is DMDK of Captain Vijaykant.
    In 2006, to test His waters, He preferred to go alone but, this time for the National Elections which would be fought on Different Issues, where Freebies Dont matter, it is more likely that DMDK, BJP, Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party and A.C. Shanmugam’s New Justice Party are likely to form an Electoral Alliance.

    RAJ

    Aug 13th, 2008

19. Share view

    The situation right now in AP

    Cong will sweep Rayalaseema + Southeren Costal Region and gives good fight in Coastal Andhra (North and Central) + Tough situation in Telangana.
    If TRS + TDP + Left joins together then will sweep Telangana.
    Chiru will win Coastal Andhra (North and Central) but rest of the state he will be nominal.
    There is takers for BJP + NTP(Devender) in AP, I doubt can they open the account State Elections? MP seats forget it.
    Rayalaseema + Southeren Costal Region Total 11 Cong 9 TDP 1
    Coastal Andhra (North and Central) Total 14 Chiru 7 Cong 4 TDP 1
    Telangana (including Hyd) Total 17 MIM 1 TDP+TRS+LEFT 12 Cong 4

    AP: Cong 17 TDP 9 TRS 4 CPM 1 Chiru 7 MIM 1

    Having said that whatever changes will happen they will be in favour of Chiru and against TDP and Cong.

    Aug 14th, 2008

20. Raj

    Hello Share View:
    TRS’s alliance with TDP will prove Disastrous
    In Telangana its going to be BJP - NTPP of Devedra Goud who will have a clean sweep.
    In Uttar Andhra ranging from Bezawada will be Praja Rajyam’s Bastion.
    Rayalaseema is a Bed Rock for INC
    If Modi campaigns in Hyderabad, MIM will be doomed.
    The Muslim Percentage of Hyd is about 40% so even if 42-43 % votes are obtained by BJP, Hyd will be in BJP’s Pocket.
    With Lumbini Park’s bombings and intensified attack on Hindu Temples and centre’s soft policy towards terrorism and terrorists to keep muslims happy, it’s certain that BJP will pull A Victory in Hyd.
    TRS would fight hard to retain the karimnagar seat.
    Even a Kid knows that CBN is against Telangana.
    Dakshin Costa will be a battleground between ongress and PrajaRajyam.
    The Real Loser will be CBN in 2009.

    Sep 6th, 2008

21. Sameer hyd

    HI,

    In AP I hope all those who are reviewing take cognizance of the fact that all telangana parties have declared that they are going to put up a united front on the eve of elections. But it is not only us the common man but the leaders of telangana parties are bogged down by a tie up situation with all and sundry jumping on the bandwagon except Congress and CMP and chiru party not being committed either ways. But the talk of the town is ,it is dr. mithra who is going to play spoil sport with his left leaning and anti-telangana stand.CPI and CPM have different stands on telangana but they want to stick together. If one analyses the 2004 election constituency wise for last 15 years one can clearly see congress has given seats it could never win to TRS and also CPM and CPI then put up candidates so that TRS couldn’t win more ,if only they had played fair TRS could have won 10 more and CPI and CPM ac couple more.With BJP now being very strong especially in telangana, the most probable outcome could be TRS, BJP,NNTP and Either TDP or PRP which could more or less sweep the pools in legislative assembly. To mix legislative assembly and Loksabha is foolish because there is strong feeling that BJP would return to power and there are instances in past where in an MP won from one party and all MLAs are from other party when elections were held at same time. For loksabha point of view whoever goes with the BJP will get maximum benefit. With SP tying up with congress in UP , BSP has only way of going with BJP else both could end up losing. If BSP joins with BJP that could be the end of a third front at center, and CPI could as well join the bandwagon on telangana combine. All in all one could say congress could only end up winning something like 5 seats for loksabha and 50-90 in assembly.Depends on telangana combinations. But anti incumbency and anti Congress corrupt policies sentiment is very much there. If only the opposition has sense to join the maha combine only for the elections (TDP,PRP,TRS,NNTP,BJP and CPs) then Congress could as well end up with a single digit number in the legislature.Dr. Mithra could as well be the friend in disguise for the congress in PRP.

    Sep 24th, 2008

22. manmohan

    i feel it will be 8 for the ldf and 12 for the udf in kerala,in karnataka there will be clear sweep for the bjp , tamil nadu of couce it willl benifit aiadmk,orissa it will coupled with naveen patnaik and bjp,andhra it may favour chiranjeevi yaar,goa of cource to bjp so the final oin south india is an hung parliament

    Oct 1st, 2008

23. vamsikrishna

    when are the 2009 parliament elections

    Oct 2nd, 2008

24. chakresh

    @vamsi
    predictably in feb-march next year now. Though government can decide to resign before, but it doesn’t look like a possibility now.
    thanx to stop by.

    Oct 2nd, 2008

25. karthik

    is BJP that much strong in andhra.. it is very hard to believe…i want bjp to form government in andhra..

    Oct 4th, 2008

26. jayachandran

    considering the power cut problem, it is doubtful of the congress alliance to get at least one seat in M.P.elections. The number of hours announced and un-announced power cuts in mofusil area , other than Chennai city, is nearly 10 hours or upto 12 hours a day. This will create a great set back, if the problem is not looked into before the anouncement of elections to M.P.

    Oct 16th, 2008

27. Sumit Singh

    Very congrats on this blog.

    Yeah the question by karthik is in my mind as well. 4% reservation given to Muslims in police/other government jobs should fuel BJP rise isn’t it.

    I am from western UP, have lived in Pune almost all my life and have worked in Chennai/Hyd for a brief period. I have seen extreme Hindu-Muslim polarization in UP, Mah but probably same is not there in southern states (maybe they weren’t affected by partition that much).

    With 18% Muslims in UP (reaching to 40% in almost all western UP seats) nobody can dare give them even 1% reservation as that will mean a landslide victory for BJP with all caste equations going for a toss. Won’t this 4% reservation and win in Karnataka fuel BJP growth in AP?

    Oct 19th, 2008

28. Hari

    The scene in TN is not clear. Vijaykanth has grown scince the last assembly elections and it does appear that the Congress may be inclined to tie up with him. The PMK has openly stated that they would be prepared for a Congress led alliance in TN which also includes the DMDK. If this scenario unfolds then we may have a 3 way contest with DMK+LEFT+Thirumavalavan on one side Congress+DMDK+PMK on another side and the AIADMK+MDMK+BJP+SARATHKUMAR on the third side. The DMK is facing substantial anti incumbency due to power cuts and rising prices and altough they have tried very hard to make it appear that they have delivered on their election promises it may be tough going for them. Vijaykanth has substantially eroded the youth base of the AIADMK and that party too does not appear in good shape. One thing for sure this time around there will be no clean sweep and the next Govt. at the centre may not have too many pinpricks from their southern ally.

    Oct 21st, 2008

29. kumar

    this time in ANDHRA -2009 Elections, the scene would be completly different.

    TDP will be the most disaster looser while CONGRESS will comed down to 2 digits.

    As per my prediction.

    if TDP+TRS+CPI then it would will decent seats in telangana region and TDP looses drastically in Andhra and rayalseema

    it would get 60-70 seats.

    CONG will get 70-75 seats
    PRP+CPM+BJP+LOKSATTA

    140-150 seats.

    PRP is very very strong in Andhra region and may clean sweep by winning more than 85 seats and 20-25 seats in rayalseema

    and in telangana PRP will sweep in warangal, khammam, nalgonda and some parts in Karim naganr which will get 30-40 seats.

    Nov 3rd, 2008

30. srinivasaraosharma

    In andhra all your predictionsare wrong mr raj. why , as u told kapus are 15% . but they spraed all andhra. but in godavari disrticts all shedule caste and bachward castes are against kapus including bhramins, yadavas, shetty balijas, gavaras visyas.and in west godavari , krishna, guntur, nellore, ongole, khammam kamma are more than 25% to 40% in 80 seats. . becausre these people are concentrated in these areas only. In nortern andhra koppula velama who are more than 25% in 30seats are stand behind tdp in srikakulam, vizayanagaram and vizag..chiru may get majority in east godavari . . in telangana tdp may get (with cpm and trs) 60 to 80. i rayalaseema cong will lead in cuddapha , kurnool, and chittor, there are also tdp may get some 6 to 10 seats. in anatapur tdp will lead, .in telangana and in andhra chiru party will spoil or divide most of thecong votes . where kapus and munnuru kapus are strong vote bank to cong earlier now joined with chiruthats why costal tdp is main party .in rayalaseema cong will lead. In telangana tdp ,trs may lead. Chiranjeevi spoil cong chances and may get less than 40 seats. my

    Nov 8th, 2008

31. srinu

    Yes exactly,srinivasaraosharma is correct.most of the kapu’s in costal region are vote bank for congress earlier now joining with chiru may be gain for TDP.

    Nov 13th, 2008

32. raiv

    one point need to understand most of the chiru fans were against Balayya and TDP so definitely PRP wont split much vote bank at the cost of TDP but congress.

    Nov 13th, 2008

33. saurav

    I REQUEST THE PEOPLE OF ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU TOBE INDIANS FIRST AND THEN YOUR LANGUAGE/STATE

    PLEASE PLEASE PEOPLE OF AP AND TN , DO NOT VOTE FOR CONGRESS PARTY……..

    CONGRESS PARTY IS ANTI HINDU/ANTI INDIA/ ANTI NATIONALISM

    Nov 16th, 2008

34. GANGULY

    I REQUEST THE PEOPLE OF ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU TOBE INDIANS FIRST AND THEN YOUR LANGUAGE/STATE

    PLEASE PLEASE PEOPLE OF AP AND TN , DO NOT VOTE FOR CONGRESS PARTY……..

    CONGRESS PARTY IS ANTI HINDU/ANTI INDIA/ ANTI NATIONALISM

    Nov 16th, 2008

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