by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 20th, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Nalgonda is Another Constituency where BJP has A Strong Stake. If This Seat is Alloted to Communists. BJP’s Chances are Bright in Nalgonda as TRS Would oppose Communists
March 20th, 2009 at 11:24 AM
In Telangana The BJP’s Prospects are :
Secunderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella — Sure BJP
Zaheerabad,Mehbubabad(ST) — With More Efforts, A BJP Win
Warrangal(SC) and Hyderabad —- Very Hard. In Warrangal,need to have a secret pact with TRS and in Hyderabad, The other majlis should successfully take away a Large chunk of MIM votes.
Interestingly I have left out MehbubaNagar and KarimNagar — since in Karim Nagar , TRS and BJP have Secret understanding. And as Per Reports, since Vijayashanti is Adamant on Fighting from Medak, KCR is likely to shift to Mehbubnagar, here, he has to plead BJP to field a Weak Candidate for his success
March 20th, 2009 at 11:18 AM
You are Right AK Bhai. Thatz Gonna HAPPEN
upa IS COMPLETELY IN sHAMBLES. sp, rjd,ljp,ncp ALL HAVE THEIR OWN MOTIVES.
Only in TN, with DMDK most likely joining UPA(as Per Reports), It would be 40-60 for upa and AIADMK Front.
BJP has NO Chance besides South Chennai, Kanniyakumari and Ramanathapuram. It’s Good for BJP to have Alliance with low profile Sarath Kumar for 2009 Lok Sabha Elections then with any other Party.And as Hari said, it is to some extent neccessary for BJP to have Sarah Kumar’s Help to Win Kanniyakumari Seat.
DMDK Joining a DMK Led Alliance will Prove to be Costly to Captain as He would lose credibility of being in An Alliance which has DMK and PMK.The Anti-DMK Votes would go Back to AIADMK and if BJP Works Hard, can galvanize The Anti-DMK Votes to BJP in Ramanathapuram,South Chennai and Kanniyakumari.
Aslo, BJP should Focus Primarily on Just These Three Constituencies in TN for 2009 Lok Sabha Polls and also make an Impact in certain segments of Dharmapuri,Coimbatore,Tirupur,Thenkasi. so that, whenever, Elections to TN Assembly are Held, BJP is Approached by AIADMK for Alliance and BJP Demand atleast 35-40 Assembly Seats. That is Possible If and ONLY If, BJP Polls about 7% of Popular vote in TN in Lok Sabha Elections of May 2009
March 20th, 2009 at 11:04 AM
Dear Raj,
That would be historic, if congress goes below 100 seats. The lowest it was 114. If they fight alone in Bihar, which report indicates, BJP-JD(U) will sweep Bihar with 30-35 seats.
If Uma campaigns in Bundelkhand & Poorvanchal, BJP will be ~ 30 in UP. If modi campaigns in Orissa, they’ll retain their 7 seats in Lok sabha from Orissa.
With wins in Telengana, BJP will become Pan India party and Congress will be reduced to a fragmented national party.
March 20th, 2009 at 10:53 AM
In Assam too inc is going to face a mere rout.
March 20th, 2009 at 10:52 AM
and in Kerala and WB Congress gain is LF loss.
March 20th, 2009 at 10:51 AM
Dear Hari, The Only States where congress would gain are : Kerala and West Bengal while UPA as a whole in General and Congress in Particular are about to lose badly in Delhi, Rajasthan(Remember, in ’98 too, after sweeping Delhi and Rjaasthan Assembly Polls, the media portrayed like the same performance would be repeated in ’99 elections in these two states, on the contrary, congress drew a blank in Delhi and suffered a lot in Rajasthan, this time too, it was wrong selection of candidates and local factors like local infighting that defeated BJP in Delhi and Rajasthan Respectively, with Uma Bharati Back in BJP,it’s Advantage BJP). congress has NO Chance in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, UP,Delhi,Haryana,Bihar(including UPA),Jharkhand,Maharashra,Orissa(It is interesting here, pollsters feel it’s Advantage congress because of BJP-BJD Split, but the fact is that BJP and BJD Votes merely add up in Orissa rather than being Symbiotic at constituency level. BJP derives Strength in the triabl belt of western Orissa while BJD in The Urban Coastal Belt. Hence, at constituency level, it is A 2 Way Fight and NOT a 3 way fight),AP,TN and Karnataka.
Take it from me, Congress will get below 100 seats.
March 19th, 2009 at 7:44 PM
Raj,
I am happy to hear that Congress may be reduced to just 12 seats in AP. In addition the gainers should be preferably the BJP or its potential allies. If Congress indeed does that badly then its overall tally will drop to 140 or less making it impossible for a Congress led coalition. Now that may mean that to prevent the NDA from coming to power they may just about accept anybody from Deve Gowda ( God not one more time) to Mayawathi or Sharad Pawar as PM. The only way this can be prevented is that the pre poll NDA must cross 225 seats and Mamta must also get about 20 seats. That will make it near impossible for a coalition which has the Congress at the centre or outside.
March 19th, 2009 at 5:35 PM
Dear Hari, in my View, in Lok Sabha from AP, congress would get Only about 12 seats.
Congress , likely to Draw A Blank in Telangana in Parliamentary Elections.
In Rayalaseema, can Win : Karnool,Kadapa,Rajampeta and Tirupati easily.
Anantapur and Chitoor, The fight is Between congress and TDP. it has to be seen whether, PRP would take away Anti-Congress Votes or Anti TDP votes.
In Nandyal(if anyone remembers, This Constituency Once Elected A Prie Minister),The Fight is Between PRP and Congress
In communally Polarized Hindupur, congress has fielded the sitting MP Nizamuddin against whom there is A Strong Anti Incumbency as he NEVER Visited the people after getting elected. As per Lok Sabha Elections, The People’s Choice is BJP’s Naresh(Going by The Latest Reports,and also Advani Ji’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Madanapalle was A Huge Success,something unforeseen for BJP in Rayalaseema)irrespective of whom TDP and PRP field.
Nellore,Ongole,Bapatla :Triangular Fight between PRP and Congress (Advantage Congress)
March 19th, 2009 at 5:25 PM
Great Analysis Santeesh Ji. But, would like to know what are SC Reserved Seats as BSP would dent into congress there. Though in TN, Kerala doesnt have Strong BSP Presence among Dalits, In Karnataka, as shown from last Assembly Elections, BSP did make a mark among SC Constituencies.
In AP, BSP is trying to make a dent , last time BSP in AP Polled 3.5% of Popular Vote, This time, BSP is likely to increase to 5% in AP
March 19th, 2009 at 4:11 PM
My predictions for Karnataka…
1)Chamarajanagar: It will be tough fight between COngress and JDS . Advntage Congress
2)Mysore: Aas COorg district has been added to the region..It has become BJP stronghold.Mysore city+Coorg enough to ensure BJP candidate Vijayshankar the Victory. Definitely BJP
3)Hassan: JDS supremo HD DeveGowda will win from here
4)Dakshina Kannada (Mangalore) :COngress Central Minister Renuka CHowdary has delivered the seat to BJP by calling the region as Taliban…BJP has also put up strong candidate vinay kumar kateel..Its BJP in Mangalore…
5)Tumkur: Three way contest between JDS,COng and BJP..WIth thee blessings of Siddaganga swamiji HH Shivakumara swami, BJP will win this seat
6)Chitradurga : BJP has fielded MBA post graduate from the constituency.Its traditional COngress stronghold, but It might change this time 50-50 chance for both BJP and COng
7)Kolar : BJP candidate DS veeraiah is strong candidate,vARTHUR PRAKASH campaigning for BJP will help a lot and hence BJP will win this seat.If ex central minister Muniyappa is given COng canidate,then 100% BJP will win
8)Chikballapur : jALappas retirement, and his son winning from BJP ,Three bangalore city BJP assembly segments being added to this seat all indicates that BJP would be the winner
9)Bangalore North: HT sanglia if contested from Congress then 100% sure seat for BJP OR ELSE 50-50
10)Bangalore central: If ex Lokayukta chief had been given the ticket,he would have won,But now BJP Ticket has been given to PC Mohan who lost in assembly . Hence it might be COngress
11)Bangalore SOuth: Traditional BJP stronghold. If ex CM SM Krishna contests from here.then its 50-50 or else 100% sure seat for BP’s AnathKumar
12)Mandya : Most likely to go JDS Cheluvaraya Swamy’s way
13)Bangalore RUral: Tough fight between COng and JDS (most likely HD Kumarswamy Vs DK Shivakumar)
14)Shimoga: Yediyurappa’s son from BJP will win easily
15)Davanagere : GM siddesh of BJP will win
16)Udupi-Chikmagalur: BJP Sronghold, COng most likely to field weak candidates like BL hsnakar and hence BJP state president Sadananda Gowda might win, IF cong puts strong candidate then 50-50
17)Uttarakannada(Karwara): Asnotikar’s charishma, Kageri’s help will ensure BJP victory against Dynastic rule of Deshpandes
NOW LETS SEE HOW BJP performs in storng fort of North Karnataka where JDS will surely draw blank
18)Bidar->BJP candidate Gurupadappa Nagamarpalli is very strong candidate.Congress is likely to field ex chief minister DHaram singh… BJP is most likely to win
19)Gulbarga->COng candidate Kharge is strong but Lingayats form Majority here.Hence fight would be tough but advantage Congress
20)Koppal->COng incumbent bad MP ensures Vctory for good BJP candidate
21)rAICHUR:toUGH FIGHT BETWEEN nAIKS .50-50
22)bELLARY: The only lady MP from Karnataka would be Shanthi from BJP
23)Belgaum: BJP’S COntroversial candidate ANagadi might win
24)Chikkodi: KATHI , Bala Jarakiholi ensures victory for BJP
25)Bijapur: Traditional BJP seat
26)Bagalkot: 100% BJP seat
27)Dharwad: Incumbent BJP MP has done good work and will get elected for next term as well
28)Haveri: Udasi from BJP will win
Total seats: 28
BJP:19-22
Cong:4-8
jds:2-4
March 19th, 2009 at 1:36 PM
Finally Truce:
http://www.zeenews.com/nation/2009-03-19/516100news.html
March 19th, 2009 at 1:27 PM
The BJP must adopt different strategies for different state. For Advani this is his last chance, considering his age, and the party cannot experiment by trying to build voter base in different states at this juncture.
1. In states like Bengal the aim should be to prevent prevent Cong. from getting more seats even if it means enabling the left to get more seats. In Bengal the BJP can play soft and allow the Trinamool Cong. to win more seats. The BJP must aggresively champaign in seats where left is sure to win so as to enable them to build a base for the Future.
2. In Orissa the focus should be similar as in Bengal only that the the BJP should not split the anti Cong. votes where the BJD is in a better position to do well.
3. In Kerala the BJP should play spoil sport to the Cong. As shown in the past whenever the BJP vote share exceeds 6 % the Cong. allaince bites the dust.
4. In Tamil Nadu again the focus should not to play spoil sport to AIADMK as they are potential post poll ally. In seats where the PMK is contesting as an ally of the UPA the BJP should try and give a good performance as both PMK and AIADMK can be considered as potential allies.
5. In AP too the focus should be to reduce the tally on the Cong.
In the overall if Congress were to get about 15 to 20 seats less than the BJP then it may find it extremely difficult to cobble up an alliance and if the BJP can cross 160 seats it can attract most of the fence sitters.
March 19th, 2009 at 11:42 AM
Assembly Elections in TN are some two years away as of Date. so, let’s Not bother about the same now. As of Date, it is About Lok Sabha Polls. TN Takes A Different Shape Each Election and The Political Parties of TN Lack Credibility
March 19th, 2009 at 9:27 AM
Hi Raj,
If Vijaykant goes with BJP( not merge), BJP may announce him CM candidate
for TN. Tomorrow he may be CM. If he lives with Jaya, he can not be CM.It will be advantageous to BJP also.
March 19th, 2009 at 8:48 AM
Hari, You are Right. But, if Captain joins AIADMK Alliance, Jaya would gain while Captain would lose.
If e joins DMK led Alliance, He would lose Credibility and Anti DMK Votes would go back to Jaya.
If He stans Alone, He cant Win Seats.
If and Only if He stiches up an Alliance with BJP, He can save from Disgrace and Political Ignonomy
March 18th, 2009 at 9:50 PM
Raj,
As of today the presence of Vijaykanth is hurting AIADMK more than the DMK. Vijaykanth as part of the AIADMK lliance can not only retain his identity but also slowly establish himself as a person who can tilt the scales in the way the PMK has done all these years.
March 18th, 2009 at 9:36 PM
under Present Cicumstances, The Jaya Front would Clearly Win 25-30 Lok Sabha Seats in TamilNadu even in Adverse Case.
It would be A Blunder by Captain if He becomes Part of Alliance containing DMK and would lose His credibility. Also, He would have topugh time if He fights Alone for Lok Sabha Polls and can Create An Impact only in Coimbatore,Cuddalore,Villupuram and Dindigul.
I am Not saying Captain would Win All these four seats. But, can create an Impact here.
March 18th, 2009 at 9:31 PM
Thiru Hari, it would be A Blunder if BJP Doesnt Field Thiru S Thirunavakarasar from Ramanathapuram. It is Actually Because of These Two Seats : Ramanathapuram and Ila Ganesan that I Dont want BJP to Ally with AIADMK as Jaya considers Thiru S Thirunavakarasar as her Bete Noire.
As You mentioned earlier that BJP has lost it’s influence in Coimbatore, BJP Should Focus Primarily in These Three Constituencies in TamilNadu.
March 18th, 2009 at 9:10 PM
As regards candidates Ela Ganesan from Chennai South, Thirunavakkarasar from Ramanathapuram are ideal for the BJP but Jaya being Jaya will never allow the BJP the freedom to select these two, as she considers Ganesan as Karuna’s man and Thirunavakkarasar a traitor of her party.
Pon Radhakrishnan has already started his champaign and Kanyakumari being one of the AIADMK’S weakest area they would not mind his candidature.