by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 24th, 2009 at 2:49 PM
Its now official PMK out of UPA. One more blow to UPA..and also blow to pre-poll surveyor for projecting UPA as winner
March 24th, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Hi Raj,
If BJP get good % of votes in AP,TN,WB,Kerala. In next election lot of people and alliance will come with BJP.
BJP should take this election seriously in AP,TN,WB,Kerala.
March 24th, 2009 at 12:14 PM
Hi Raj,
BJP should give tickets to dissident of congress,left and congress+ in (AP,WB,TN,Kerala). So that BJP can make congress weak.
I feel BJP may get majority(worst case 240)without the help of Mamta,Jaya,TDP,TRS,PRP(That is why BJP should have aggressive fight in these states so that BJP can increase vote %).
March 24th, 2009 at 10:48 AM
BJP Releases A List of 7 more constituencies in Andhra Pradesh :
The seven candidates for the Lok Sabha elections in Andhra Pradesh are J. Bapi Reddy (Nizamabad); Satish Agarwal (Hyderabad); Dileep Naik (Mahabubabad-ST); Kapilvai Ravinder (Khammam); Mandava Vasadeva (Ongole); Ambati Ramakrishna Reddy (Anantapur) and Harinath Reddy (Rajampet).
Only in Mehbubabad(ST), BJP has A High Chance of Winning as The BJP Leadership has Chosen The Right Candidate here.
Nizamabad would be Hard but , in Hyderabad, BJP has really given up All Hope by Placing a Dummy Candidate.
March 24th, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Hi Raj,
What about TN.
March 24th, 2009 at 9:52 AM
Dear Aditya, BJP has so far Released list for 100 Assembly and 15 Lok Sabha Seats in Andhra Pradesh.
However, By This Weekend, They have to release List of Candidates for The Remaining Seats as well.
March 24th, 2009 at 3:38 AM
Dear Aditiya,
Yes, BJP is contesting in all seats, you need to see previous posts to find that link. They are not declaring all candidates because,
1> They are doing issue/ideology based campaign and will win seats on that basis, not on basis of candidates.
2> There will be defections in Congress, who can easly be roped in to maximize the damage in areas where BJP is not strong.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:57 PM
ARRE BHAILOG
ALL THAT IS OK BUT WHO ARE THE BJP CANDIDATES FOR AP ASSEMBLY POLLS AND LOK SABHA POLLS,, ARE THEY TAKING IT SERIOSLY, THEY HAVE NOT DECLARED THEIR CANDIDATES YET …
ARE THEY CONTESTING ALL 42 LS AND 294 ASSEMBLY SEATS THEN WHY NOT DECLARE THE CANDIDATES… WHEN WILL THEY DECLARE..
March 23rd, 2009 at 5:30 PM
Dissidence in Andhra Pradesh Congress comes to Fore :
Dissidence in the Congress is coming to the fore with the party leadership releasing its nominees for the Assembly seats.Those who have aspired for the party tickets from their respective Assembly seats are now up in arms against the high command.
The dissidents have met and resolved to work against the party’s candidate, Ms Mallik Begum, for Vijayawada West Assembly segment. The dissidents resolved to defeat the party candidate and tell the leadership that the decision was wrong.They have also vowed to defeat the Lok Sabha candidate, Mr Lagadapati Rajagopal, who played a key role in getting Ms Mallika Begum’s candidature cleared.
Similar situation prevailed in Vijayawada Central segment where the party had named Mr Malladi Vishnu, who is the Chief Minister, Dr Y.S.Rajasekhar Reddy’s loyalist.The BCs and the Brahmins sought this seat.Though Mr Vishnu belongs to Brahmin community, there was opposition to his candidature from within the community and he may have to face resistance from them.The BCs too are up in arms against the leadership and are unwilling to back the candidature of Mr Vishnu.
At Mylavaram, the aspirants have come together to defeat the official nominee, Mr Appasani Sandeep, who is close to Mr Lagadapati Rajagopal. The former minister, Mr Chanumolu Venkatrao’s family was denied ticket and the family’s loyalists are now rallying around other aspirants like Mr Bommasani Subba Rao and Mr Jogi Ramesh.Though Ramesh was accommodated at Pedana, his followers are unwilling to support Mr Sandeep here.The three aspirants and their supporters have pledged to defeat the Congress and also work against Mr Rajagopal.
The Tiruvur Assembly segment is boiling with denial of ticket to Mr Koneru Ranga Rao’s daughter and Chatrai ZPTC member, Ms Lamu Tantiya Kumari. The party had fielded another woman from here who is new to politics. Ms Tantiya Kumari’s supporters are holding dharnas at Tiruvur and she is likely to be in the fray as a rebel candidate.
The Congress leader, Mr Sistla Ramesh, who sought Gudivada seat for him or Vijayawada Central seat for his wife Ms Vijaya Bharati, is now spitting venom on the leadership. He is likely to be in the fray as a rebel candidate and that would affect the winning chances of the Congress nominee, Mr Pinnamaneni Venkateswara Rao.
The party had nominated Mr D.Y.Das for Pamarru reserved segment much against the wishes of the local leaders. Mr Das is an outsider to the segment. The local leaders like Mr Katam Rajesh are unhappy with this selection and they are likely to work against him.
March 23rd, 2009 at 5:13 PM
Cardinal calls BJP ‘lesser evil’ than Marxists…
Indian Express
Posted: Mar 23, 2009 at 0318 hrs IST
MUMBAI, THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A move by the Bombay Catholic Sabha (BCS) to castigate the president of the Catholic Bishops Conference of India (CBCI) for apparently praising the virtues of the BJP over those of the Communists, has sparked a vigorous debate over the intellectual flexibility allowed by the Church and the attempts to politicise academic remarks.
Earlier this week, Cardinal Varkey Vithayathil, the Kerala-based 82-year-old head of the CBCI, was reported as saying that the BJP is a “lesser evil” compared to the Marxists. The cardinal, while speaking after the release of his biography Straight From the Heart in Kochi, was asked which of the two he considered a greater threat.
His reply: “The greater threat will certainly be the Marxist one, because it is much better to live under those who believe in a God of love and mercy than to live under those who don’t believe in God and will do anything to bring about social justice, social equality and destroy all differences of class and caste.”
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:21 PM
Hi Raj,
I am 100% agree with your view. BJP will get advantage in AP and Telangana assembly. Becasue of assembly, BJP will get advantage in parliament election.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:55 PM
No Dear. Not Yet. But, That was my View.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Hi Raj,
Has BJP projected Ch Vidya Sagar Rao for Telangana State and Venkaiah Naidu for Andhra Pradesh ?
Is it true.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:01 AM
BJP Manifesto for Andhra Pradesh : “Suraksha Andhra Pradesh”
The State unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party here on Sunday released its election manifesto “Surakshandhrapradesh” for the Assembly election promising good governance, development and security.
Releasing the manifesto at the State party office, the BJP State president, Mr Bandaru Dattatreya, said that his party’s manifesto was totally different from those of other parties —Congress, TDP, Left parties and son on. He also stressed the need to initiate discussions on the election manifestos of all political parties. He appealed to the electors to go through the manifestos of all parties thoroughly and decide themselves for whom they would caste their vote.
Reading the manifesto, Mr Dattatreya said that the forthcoming elections in the State would be historic because majority of the parties were promising separate Telangana. The BJP, which always championed the cause of smaller States, was committed to fulfill its promise of “Telangana in 100 days” after it formed Government at the Centre. Safe Andhra promise made by the BJP was not only related to terrorism but also related to right to life, right to food, right to water, right to health, right to education, right to housing and right to safety and security.
‘Aada Bidda Andalam’ Scheme
Mr Dattatreya said that his party would go to the elections with the slogans like “Water to every inch of land and work to every hand”. The party would appoint a State Commission for Children to monitor child rights besides launching “Aada Bidda Andalam” scheme under which Rs 21,166 would be deposited in the name of every girl-child on her birth, if voted to power, he added. He also assured to take up “Youth Empowerment Scheme” with Rs 1,000 crore corpus to encourage them towards entrepreneurship.
The BJP, in its election manifesto, promised that it would actively encourage passage of 33 per cent women’s reservation bill in Parliament and try to provide 50 per cent quota to them in the local bodies. Establishment of women police stations in all cities and towns, creation of fast track courts to deal with crime against women, strengthening of family courts, free education up to graduation and Rs 1,000 pension to the women above 60 years were among the promises made to the women.
The BJP also assured to prevent political interference in the educational institutions. Regularization of self-financing courses, filling of vacant posts in colleges and universities and establishment of an agriculture college and veterinary college in each district also figure in the manifesto. It also assured to set up a national mango board on the lines of Tobacco Board and Coir Board. It also assured supply of free seeds and fertilizers for green cultivation.
The saffron party also assured that the SEZ policy would be reviewed after coming to power. Alleging that Dr Rajasekhara Reddy government had turned into a “real-estate firm”, the party made it clear that it would reduce the acquisition period to 12 month as it would ensure market rate to the oustees. The BJP is also keen on closure of belt shops and controlling liquor business in the State.
Underlining the need for better governance, the party has favoured direct election to the post of Mayor in the cities with corporation status.
It’s Time BJP Presents Two Chief Ministerial Candidates : Ch Vidya Sagar Rao for Telangana State and Venkaiah Naidu for Andhra Pradesh
March 22nd, 2009 at 9:19 PM
Hi Raj,
I am very happy, BJP should fight on all seats with full capacity. So that BJP can make own strong base in TN.
BJP should try to secure 10% votes all over TN.
Choose candidates in such a way which can create defeat for
congress candidates.
March 22nd, 2009 at 8:52 PM
TN BJP is in A Dilemna, as BJP has to Wage a Lone Battle in This state, BJP is in two minds, whether to contest in ALL Seats or to contest in Only About 12-15 Lok Sabha Seats in TN.
March 22nd, 2009 at 8:51 PM
* I mean, Thanks for Posting such An an Awesome Post Sir
“An IndianAmerican”
March 22nd, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Yes Ritesh Bhai, Captain is Dooming his Party. The Anti DMK Votes he got are going Back to AIADMK.
It is most Likely That DMDK would be given some 6 Seats, Congress to field 15 and DMK in 19.
March 22nd, 2009 at 8:47 PM
In TamilNadu, The Seat Sharing by AIADMK Led Alliance is Almost Finalized :
AIADMK to contest 25 Lok Sabha Seats, PMK to Contest 7, MDMK to contest 4 and CPM and CPI to contest two each.
March 22nd, 2009 at 8:10 PM
Hi,
DMDK is with Congress.