by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 25th, 2009 at 9:39 AM
BJP Should Make Full Advantage of This and Give a Good Fight in Kannur, Where BJP has A Good Base.
In Kerala, BJP should Concentrate in The Following Constituencies —
1. Kasargod(High Chances)
2 Kannur(Very Hard)
3. Palakkad(Good)
4. Kozhikode/Cochin(only A Fight,likely to end up third but, should strive hard to increase the vote base)
5. Trissur(same as above)
6. Tiruvananthapuram(Hard)
March 25th, 2009 at 9:35 AM
Kerala High Court Slams State Government, Accuses CPI(M) of protecting muslim Fundamentalists(for Votes) :
In a severe indictment of the CPI(M) -led LDF government ahead of Lok Sabha polls, Kerala High court today observed that the law and order situation in the state was in shambles.
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‘Women are afraid of walking even on busy highways, and police have become a dreaded force whom the common man shudders to approach for help,’ Justice V Ramakumar said while dismissing bail applications of three accused in a case of attempt to murder of Rahim Pukkadassery alias KMR Guru, who is heading a spiritual oragnisation in Kottayam.
‘Kannur, the constituency of Kerala Home Minister (Kodiyeri Balakrishnan) had contributed a handful of hardcore criminals to execute the operation plotted by the main accused persons,’ the court observed. Some of the accused in the case also hail from Kannur.
‘Many unemployed youths have taken up the job of killing and maiming people for rewards. Prima facie investigations revealed that the murder attempt was the handiwork of a terrorist outfit with which the accused have links,’ it said.
According to prosecution, the accused, alleged to be Muslim fundamentalists, were against the organisation and brutally attacked Rahim near here on January 10 last year.
Thinking the victim was dead, the accused escaped. Three other accused in the case were killed in an encounter in Kashmir few months ago.
Terrorism in the horrendous form is showing its ugly face in various parts of the county, threatening the country’s stability, Justice Ramkumar said.
Cases coming before the high court point that lethal weapons like swords and country bombs were increasingly being used against people by those who manufacture and stock them.
‘In an appropriate case, this court will be constrained to call for details such as investigation so far conducted to unearth the source of manufacture, supply of deadly weapons in various parts of the sate and persons or organisation connected with it,’ the judge said.
Meanwhile, Kerala home minister Kodiyeri Balakrishnan told reporters at Kozhikode that the government would move the Supreme Court in the matter.
‘The Court should have heard the government also before making such observations,’ he said. CPI(M) state secretary Pinaryi Vijayan said there was no law and order problem in the state.’ In fact, compared to several other states, the situation in Kerala has always been peaceful,’ he said.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:57 PM
Dear Friends, Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency is now Reserved for MIM as The Muslim Population is as High as 70% Post Delimitation in Hyderabad. Even BJP has fielded A Weak Candidate from here as NO Strong BJP Leader wants to waste His/Her Energy in Hyderabad Lok Sabha Seat where Muslim Population is as high as 70%.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:39 PM
Well, Krishnam Raju has Joined PRP yesterday. BJP now has to concentrate in Only 3 Lok Sabha Seats in Andhra Pradesh – The Telangana Region. Viz, Visakhapatnam(BJP Win Almost Certain), Hindupur(Very High Chances, even if TDP fields NTR’s Son, Balakrishna from here) and Vijayawada(Demands Lot of Hard Work,but, the good thing is BJP has started campaigning here and there is Huge Anti-Incumbency as well as dissidence against congress nominee and sitting MP from Bezawad while PRP and Grand Alliance are Yet to choose A Candidate, Advantage BJP)
March 24th, 2009 at 6:25 PM
Hi,
If TRS comes back, no problem. It is also a good news for BJP.
Without BJP, whatever they do, is useless.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:25 PM
who is kakka?
March 24th, 2009 at 6:24 PM
Hi Raj,
If any party comes with BJP, then party gets direction( due alliance with BJP). Without BJP, regional parties are not having any direction. For time being they can make fool India not permanent.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:23 PM
oh NO!!!!
TRS is Back in Gand Alliance.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:21 PM
Hi Raj,
Without the help of BJP or congress, no party( Amma,Kakka) in India can survive.
Problem is, BJP is not having confidence.
My stern warning to BJP, BJP should not have any alliance with TDP,Amma,Kakka,Mamta,TRS,BJD,PRP,Mayawati(is a toilet pot). Inner understanding is ok.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:17 PM
Hi Raj,
I wrote long time before, Chandra Bubu is child in politics.
He does not know basic of politics. Now have you understood.
BJP is other pole of politics. He should not left BJP.
Same thing will happen with BJD.
March 24th, 2009 at 6:10 PM
AP grand alliance falls flat as TRS snaps ties :
Delivering a shock to the Telugu Desam Party, Telangana Rashtra Samiti president K Chandrasekhara Rao has announced severing relations with the grand alliance of the opposition in Andhra Pradesh.
Chandrasekhara Rao made the dramatic announcement after late Monday night after the last ditch effort to thrash out the thorny issue of seat sharing with the TDP ended in a fiasco.
Negotiations between the two parties were deadlocked for the last few days as the TRS was demanding nine more assembly seats over and above the 45 assembly seats TDP had initially agreed to leave for the party. However, the issue of Lok Sabha seats was settled as TDP accepted TRS’s demand for nine seats.
TRS had adopted an uncompromising stand on several key assembly constituencies, including Adilabad and Nizamabad town constituencies. The situation apparently went from bad to worse when TDP President Chandrababu Naidu [Images] kept a large delegation of TRS leaders waiting from 2230 hours to past midnight.
On coming to know of the humiliation of the delegation, which included his son and TRS general secretary K Taraka Rama Rao, his nephew T Harish Rao and TRS floor leader E Rajender, Chandrasekhara Rao ordered the delegation to return immediately.
An angry Rao personally called some reporters later to announce the end of relations with the TDP.
“Now the question of an alliance with the TDP does not arise. We will not ally with any party in this election. TRS will enter the fray alone and we will release our list of candidates by Tuesday afternoon,” he told the media.
According to the sources, Rao told his colleagues that it was the TDP which needs TRS to form its government and TRS does not need any body to win in Telangana region.
His announcement shocked the TDP leadership, forcing it go on the defensive. The TDP Politburo meeting on Wednesday has been postponed and party president N Chandrababu Naidu is trying to find a way out of the mess by consulting the senior party leaders.
Surprisingly, the crisis reached breaking point hours after senior TDP leader K Yerran Naidu had held talks with Harish Rao and Taraka Rama Rao on the few assembly seats and it was believed that the deadlock was broken by agreeing to give 48 assembly seats to the TRS. But apparently it was not satisfying enough for Chandrasekhara Rao and he continued to haggle for a few more seats.
A beleaguered Chandrababu Naidu also sought the help from the left leaders to solve the problem but B V Raghavulu of CPI-M refused to get involved, given the volatile nature of Chandrasekhara Rao.
However CPI state secretary K Narayana was trying to keep the dream of a grand alliance alive, saying TRS was still part of the combine to ensure the defeat of Congress party.
Now the only glimmer of hope for the grand alliance is the reported reluctance of young TRS leaders Harish Rao and Taraka Rama Rao to break away from the alliance. The duo is reportedly trying to persuade their party’s patriarch to cool down and remain with the combine.
The Grand Alliance has Finally Ended Even before it has been Formed
A Big Blow to Left Front 
March 24th, 2009 at 6:03 PM
TRS likely to go Alone or join hands with PRP.
Since, BJP has already Announced Candidates, There is NO Scope for BJP-TRS Alliance though Friendly Fights between BJP and TRS is on Cards.
This is A Serious Blow to Chandra Babu Naidu and The Left Front.
March 24th, 2009 at 5:56 PM
DMDK as of date is saying would go alone.
In AP : BJP has released a list of Another 57 Candidates for Assembly and 7 for Lok Sabha.
With This BJP has so far Cleared The Candidature for 157 Assemblies and 22 Lok Sabha Constituencies.
March 24th, 2009 at 5:23 PM
Hi Raj,
PMK is running away from Congress and DMK, He knows outcome of TN politics.
DMDK is immatured person. After election he will learn something.
March 24th, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Not many Disidents would opt for BJP
March 24th, 2009 at 4:33 PM
it seems, anbu-money ramadoss wants to continue as Health Minister for the remaining period as well to fill in his coffers and will be meeting sonia maino’s advisor ahmed patel and hold discussions with gk vasan and kv thangabalu in presence of ahmed patel in Delhi.
March 24th, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Hi Raj,
If i say include dissident, It is a part of strategy it is not 100%. Pros and cons has to been seen.
March 24th, 2009 at 4:30 PM
Hi Raj,
He is not dissident. He can win. BJP should work hard.
I am talking about those seats in which BJP can not win( zero prsence less than 5%) at any cost just to improve vote bank and create defeat for congress. If vote bank is more than 5% then fight( do not include dissident) carefully.
March 24th, 2009 at 4:20 PM
And AWN Bhai, Dont be Surprised if UPA Draws A Blank in TamilNadu in 2009.
March 24th, 2009 at 4:19 PM
Ritesh Bhai, Thatz Not a good Strategy, All or most of the dissidents shouldn be entertainment.
In Bengal, in The Barasat Consituency, BJP did Field a fomer communist MP.
one should act with Caution while entertaining Dissidents.