by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 26th, 2009 at 11:10 PM
C Janga Reddy is Contesting from BhupalPalle Assembly Segment.
His name was Cleared in The First List for AP Polls Released By BJP some two weeks back
March 26th, 2009 at 11:07 PM
Where did You get that Info, Ritesh Bhai?
C Janga Reddy is given An Assembly Ticket and Not Parliamentary Seat.
Can You Please give the link?
March 26th, 2009 at 10:48 PM
Hi,
How much is the chance.
Karimnagar Shri C. Janga Reddy
March 26th, 2009 at 7:51 PM
But, I have to admit, besides Telangana, BJP has A Chance Only in Visakhapatnam, Hindupur (These two being the strongest) and Bezawada(Vijayawada, bit hard)
March 26th, 2009 at 7:50 PM
Dear Aditya.
As of Date, Nothing can be said About AP. In Andhra Pradesh, there would be a lot of cross voti ng for All Parties except for congress. Because, those who vote for congress in the state will also vote for congress and TDP at the central level(The Illiterates constitute the crux of congress voters)
But, those Who vote for PRP may Not vote for the same at National Level too particularly in Urban Areas. They may Vote either for congress or for BJP.
However, in Telangana Region, BJP will come as A Strong Force and Would Win in All The Constituencies where CPM And CPI will be fielded in The T-Region as TRS and BJP have a Secret Pact. These Seats are : Nalgonda, Mahbubabad,Warrangal. In Nizamabad too, BJP has put up a strong Candidate(A Popular Doctor)
In Addition, BJP would also win Malkajaigiri,Secunderabad and Chevella Parliamentary Constituencies.
March 26th, 2009 at 6:35 PM
Hi,
If BJP fights with honesty then it will be more than 20% to 30%.
March 26th, 2009 at 6:04 PM
hello raj,
what could the vote percent of the bjp be in andhra pradesh
March 26th, 2009 at 5:41 PM
Hi,
BJP should work hard in TN. Try to secure 10% votes. And it would not loss to be AIADMK. BJP should put lot of efforts, to give defeat to Left in TN.
March 26th, 2009 at 5:01 PM
Yes.It was a strategical move on the part of BJP to send Krishnam Raju into PRP fold.Keeping Krishnam Raju in BJP is of no use to the party,as he has failed to ensure growth of BJP in coastal are despite the fact he was MP for two times.It appears Chiranjeevi has of late realized that it is in his interest to support some alliance at national level,taken initiative and made a wise stand in favour of BJP led NDA.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:50 PM
useless yogender yadav.
InFact, even a layman knows that The Well Informed and The Progressive People Form The Crux of BJP Voters
March 26th, 2009 at 4:31 PM
HAVE A LOOK AT THIS ,
ABSOLUTE NONSENSE, ARE THESE GUYS DUMB….
CHAT ON IBNLIVE WITH MASTER PSEPHOLOGIST YOGENDRA YADAV
Bhavesh:Do you think varun Gandhi incident will cost BJP a lot?
Yogendra Yadav: Most such controvesies tend to remain limited to a small section of population. I think it would dent BJP;s image among the more infomred and progressive people. But these sections are not normally the BJP voters.
IT SEEMS ACCORDING TO HIM EDUCATED PEOPLE DONT VOTE FOR BJP,
MAN DONT THESE GUYS LOOK AT ORKUT.COM POLL RESULTS OR COMMENTS ON THEIR OWN SITE MOST OF WHICH ARE PRO BJP AND ANTI CONGRESS AND ANTI IBN TOO.
I CAN HARDLY FIND A BLOG ON THE NET THAT IS ANTI BJP , ALL THE BLOGS ARE PRO BJP..
March 26th, 2009 at 4:11 PM
Now, people may say, I am biased when I give three seats to BJP. Viz : Kanniyakumari, Ramanathapuram and South Chennai.
In Kanniyakumari, CPM will field the sitting MP from Nagercoil(A Christian), congress too will field a christian and so would DMDK.
Thus, the christian votes(which are more than 50%) in Kanniyakumari District would be split in theee and The Hindu Votes would be Gravitated towards BJP.
as for Ramanathapuram is concerned, S.Thirunavakarasar is The Most Popular Man in Aranthangi and BJP(Particularly RSS) has A Base in Ramanathapuram and Muddukalathur. BJP has actually strengthened here after karunanidhi’s Abusal of Sri Ram.
In South Chennai, People are Quite Sympathetic to BJP.
The Good News is, S Ve Sekhar is now planning to quit AIADMK. BJP should Romp Him for Campaign as He is A Crowd Puller.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:05 PM
even a child knows that AIADMK + PMK + MDMK + CPI(M) + CPI has Potential to Win All 40 Lok Sabha Seats in TN and Pondicherry.
UPA will Not be able to win even a single seat out of these 40.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:03 PM
Not just congress, also the EvanJehadis have paid cnn and ndtv a lot
March 26th, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Hi,
Cogress has given big money to IBN CNN. Fourth pillar of our democracy has became corrupt.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:43 PM
Dear Arun, it seems, The Media is more concerned for congress than anyone.
I wont be surprised if upa draws a Blank in TamilNadu this time around.
Even in Pondicherry, where congress is considered to be strong, it is bound to lose.
with Mailaduthurai going to PMK, mani shankar ayyar(one of the strongest pro jehadi and evangelical voices and a strong Anti Hindu voice in congress) is likely to bite dust.There is widespread Anger against P Chidambaram.
Clearly congress – dmk front will draw a blank in TN
March 26th, 2009 at 11:52 AM
DMDK has started announcing its candidates and the number has already exceeded what the UPA could offer. NDTV with its headlines is desperately praying for DMDK to align with UPA which he will not do.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/dmdk-releases-first-list-of-candidates/439324/
March 25th, 2009 at 7:41 PM
Is Krishnam Raju joining PRP a BJP Strategy?
Sensing that BJP virtually Has NO Base in Coastal AP except for Visakhapatnam,Where BJP is almost certain to Win and Bezawada(Vijayawada), where BJP has to do Hard Work,KrishnamRaju has Joined PRP!!!!!
Even after Joining PRP in The Joint Press Meet Held with Chiru, KrishnamRaju stated to Press “He Still Wants BJP to come to Power at The National Level and Form Central Government”!!!!
so, did BJP send KrishnamRaju to PRP for Post Poll Support?
March 25th, 2009 at 7:08 PM
Well said Vishnu Ji. In Malkpet, BJP has Virtually thrown up The Seat and has given it to MIM By Not Choosing Former Deputy Mayor of Hyderabad, Sri Subash Chanderji and instead has given to A Party Senior, unless A Miracle Happens, it’s Hard for BJP to Win from Malakpet Assembly Segment in The Hyderabarad Parliamentary Constituency. However, The Good News is, though Disappointed, Subash Chanderji has Not Revolted.
March 25th, 2009 at 2:34 PM
The growing indiscipline in BJP is a real concern as was exhibited in the past few days in selection of candidates in A.P.The seniors should try very hard to retain the image of the party with difference and should select the candidates with high chances of winning.I remember in the past when MIM was split in Hyderabad,it was thought Hyderabad constituency was a cake walk for BJP’s Baddam Bal Reddy.However,Party fielded Venkaiah naidu in spite of stiff resistnace from the local cadre and finally lost the seat.BJP should learn from the past ans respect local cadre sentiment and consider winnability factors.History repeats itself if you fail to learn lessons from the past.