by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
March 29th, 2009 at 7:11 PM
BJP is Yet to Announce Candidates for Zaheerabad,Mahbubnagar and Peddapally Parliamentary Constituencies.
With Congress and Grand Alliance, Announcing Muslims as Candidates and PRP not being Strong here, I Dont understand Why BJP is finding it Hard to Find A Candidate here.
Peddapally for sure BJP Cant Win.
And in MahbubNagar too as TRS Chief is An Outsider here, Encash on The same and Try to Defeat Him.
March 29th, 2009 at 4:14 PM
It is not possible to wish away parties. Most regional or caste based parties exist due to the sense of insecurity or false pride that these parties instill in the target groups. In TN 4 parties have a state wide base. The DMK and IAIDMK are the major players while the Congress even today has about 10% vote base across the state. The Congress high command has virtually any decent leadership by imposing leaders. The stategy of aligning with state parties has meant that the state party dictates and the National party over a period of time becomes a notional party. The Vijaykanth is the fourth party with a state wide precense. He too has in many ways shown that he would ultimately like to partner the Congress.
March 29th, 2009 at 3:38 PM
Hi Raj,
I am not against of alliance but these are not realiable parties.
March 29th, 2009 at 3:37 PM
Hi Raj,
I am talking about long term plan of BJP. Long term also come from short term. I feel, If BJP keeps on going alone then one day BJP would secure 25% to 75% seats in TN,WB,Kerala and AP.
March 29th, 2009 at 3:26 PM
Ritesh Bhai, BJP anyway Does Not have any Alliance in These states.
SP And BSP are Non Entities in TN.
BSP Can Increase it’s VoteBase in AP, but in TN BSP is Insignificant.
March 29th, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Hi Raj,
This time , there are 9 parties in TN including SP and BSP.
Next election, total no. of parties will be more than 15 in TN. That time it will be easy for BJP to get parliament seats in TN. All parties will be crazy about muslim and chirstian except BJP. It would be easy for BJP to secure seats in TN.
BJP should not have any alliance in TN,Kerala,WB,AP. Inner understanding is OK on equal no. of seats.
March 29th, 2009 at 10:44 AM
BJP launches ‘Bhay Ho’ to counter Congress’ ‘Jai Ho’
Watch it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4Nodf1aetA
March 29th, 2009 at 10:28 AM
Thiru Hari, Have BJP and Sarath Kumar come together?
Is it Official, Thatz Good News.
Also, in Ramanathapuram, I wish to See Thiru S. Thirunavaarasar Winning in A Four Way Contest.
March 29th, 2009 at 10:08 AM
The BJP’s prospects in Kanyakumari seat has increased with the AIADMK ally CPIM likely to nominate the sitting MP Bellaramin, Vijaykanth has already announced that the ex-MLA from Nagercoil Austin as his candidate. The Congress also will nominate a Christain for that seat which is likely to divide the Christain vote. With BJP in alliance with Sarath Kumar the Nadar vote can be harvested in their favour. So if the BJP can get around 35% of the vote thay can probably win this seat.
March 28th, 2009 at 10:18 PM
I completely Agree with What Silva is saying.
It would be A Clean Sweep for AIADMK Front in TamilNadu.
In The Meantime, DMDK chief Captain Vijaykanth has announced candidates for 5 more constituencies thereby making it almost impossible for upa to accomodate DMDK which by far has unilateraly Annopunced candidature for 14 Lok Sabha Seats.
Though DMDK joining upa Cant be Ruled Out as candidates can be withdrawn, DMDK Chief Captain is Probably saying in Strict terms that His Party wont get contended by offering single Digit Seats for Lok Sabha Polls.
March 28th, 2009 at 9:47 PM
In TAMIL NADU people are waiting to take revenge against CONGRESS and DMK for the srilankan tamil issue,these are the parties betrayed tamil people and cause for the death of thousands of innocent tamil people in lanka. So, the educated real tamil people will vote against UPA (congress and DMK) huge anti congress wave is there… so there is a chance of 35 seats to be go into the favour of AIADMK alliance..TAMIL NADU IS ALWAYS DIFFERENT….
March 28th, 2009 at 5:57 PM
C Janga Reddy Is Not A Weak Candidate. He is The Strongest Voice of BJP in Telangana. He should have been sent to Assembly, but, Probably, Ch Vidya Sagar Rao seems the former as A Threat for BJP’s Claim to Leadership(Leader of Opposition Status, Post Telangana is Formed) and sohe is being persuaded to fight Lok Sabha Elections.
March 27th, 2009 at 12:49 PM
Hi Raj,
I think BJP wants to support KCR. That is why, BJP has fielded weak candidate.
March 27th, 2009 at 11:12 AM
we All know that. Therez Huge trouble in Grand Alliance.
March 27th, 2009 at 11:11 AM
But, I still Dont understand The Logic of sending Janga Reddy to Parliament.
He would have easily Won the Bhupalpalle Assembly Segment.
KarimNagar is Hard for Him.
March 27th, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Hi Raj,
Lot of inner fighting is taking place in TRS and TDP.
March 27th, 2009 at 9:05 AM
Dear Ritesh Bhai, Janga Reddy is A Strong Votary of Telangana but, He is an Outsider in KarimNagar.
March 27th, 2009 at 2:50 AM
ok fellas!
the fun begins now, pre-poll prediction for general election. One state a day, detailed analysis. First one to go will be God’s own country – Kerala. All of you are invited to join the discussion there. cheers!
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-prediction-2009/
March 26th, 2009 at 11:36 PM
http://www.bjp.org/images/pdf/andhra_pradesh_2609_assembly.pdf
March 26th, 2009 at 11:34 PM
Hi Raj
http://www.bjp.org/images/pdf/andhra_pradesh_2609.pdf