by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
April 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 PM
Raj,
I do agree that as of now Vijaykanth is not inclined to support the BJP. Who would have imagined that Rangarajan Kumaramangalam and Thirunavakkarsar would join the BJP. Nowadays the political churning has meant that every additional percentage vote matters. People like Lalu and Mayawati are wooing the Brahmin vote. Incidentally Mayawathi has nominated a Brahmin for Coimbatore Lok Sabha seat. It is a only a matter of time before the DMK too joins the ‘Q’.
April 2nd, 2009 at 10:06 PM
But, It’s of No Consequence to us Hari.
DMDK is anyway A Pro Congress Man.
April 2nd, 2009 at 10:04 PM
AK Bhai, DMDK is Ruled out.
Another Development that went unnoticed is Kongu Vellalar Gounders Organization is Holding talks with BJP. Here’s The News:
Leaders of Kongunadu Munnetra Peravai,floated by the influential Konguvella gounders, a prominent community in the eastern districts of Tamil Nadu, last night called on BJP leader L K Advani at his residence in Delhi and discussed forging alliance for Lok Sabha polls.
Peravai’s president B Ramasamy and Secretary Easwaran represented the party in the poll talks, a party press release said here.
The body, which was functioning as ‘Kongu Vellala Gounder Peravai’ was recently renamed ‘Kongunadu Munnetra Peravai’ to become a political party
Gounders are Influential in North Western Districts of TamilNaduand are Strong Rivals of Vanniyars. so, if They Vote Enmasse, It’s Advantage BJP(I am Not saying in terms of Seats but atleast in Vote Percen tage)
And BJP has Declared They Will Contest from Puduchery(Pondicherry)
April 2nd, 2009 at 9:24 PM
Is there a possiblity of MDMK-BJP-DMDK alliance in TN ?
April 2nd, 2009 at 9:13 PM
I don’t have that much data and oinfo to give a detailed analysis. I will provide what ever I hear and read.
The tamil weekly magazine Kumudum has published the findings of opinion poll on 5 rural northern TN seats. As per that finding the AIADMK has comfortablew lead in 2 seats and in two it is just ahead of the DMK. The DMK has a narrow lead in Kancheepurum. Surprisingly the vote share of the DMDK is over 25% in all seats and in two seats the diff. with the DMK is only one%. The magazine has also said that majprity of the first time voters are with DMDK.
Vijaykanth has been drawing large crowds in all places. He hasc chosen to champaign in the rural hinterland and has avoided the towns and cities. This has meant that the focus has been away from him while he quitely builds his support base.
April 2nd, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Manoj, No Pro Telanganaite will Ever Vote for congress.
April 2nd, 2009 at 8:48 PM
Latest Developmet in TamilNadu :
The MDMK party is mulling a possible alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after reportedly being cold-shouldered by AIADMK boss Jayalalitha over seat sharing, a top MDMK party source said Thursday.
http://blog.taragana.com/n/upset-with-aiadmk-mdmk-mulling-talks-with-nda-24758/
MDMK is Reportedly upset with Jaya’s Behaviour as She is Deciding The Seats Where MDMK has to Field Candidates!!!
April 1st, 2009 at 2:32 PM
Hari, I feel, You can give A Detailed Analysis of TN Situation. or Are You Waitig for Final Anouncement of Alliances Post Seat Sharing
March 31st, 2009 at 5:13 PM
In Telangana area in AP, TRS party which has alliance with TDP put very weak candidates in 6 of 9 seats thus giving advantage to CON party. If TDP contested there, they would have won at least 4 of those 6. This is unfortunate that TRS would give away the seats to CON party.
March 30th, 2009 at 10:56 PM
Raj,
Sarath Kumar wants Tenkasi for his party.
March 30th, 2009 at 8:25 PM
Thatz Great News Santesh!!!!
March 30th, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Hari. BJP Shouldnt Sacrifice Ramanathapuram, Kanniyakumari and South Chennai.
Sarath Kumar Cant contest from Thenkasi as it is Reserved for SCs.
March 30th, 2009 at 6:22 PM
Raj,
The BJP has announced that they will announce their alliance for Tamil Nadu on 4th April. The reason for the delay appears to be that they are hoping for some last minute split in the AIADMK left tie up.
There appears to be some sticking point between Sarath Kumar party and the BJP as most of their support base overlaps. The BJP is strong in Kanyakumari, Tenkasi, and Tuticorin apart from Ramanathapuram. Sarath wants to contest one or two of the first two and Karthik is eyeing Ramanathapuram.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:16 PM
Seeing the COngress list of candidates,Its clear that COngress doesnt have suitable candidates and doesnt have any suitable strategy as well.Jaffer Sharief would have easily won from angalore Central constituency but He is contesting from Bangalore North where he wil have to face defeat and in Central Sangliana isnt that popular candidate and hence he will also loose..
So all 3 seats of Bangalore city is most likely to be won by BJP this time….
March 30th, 2009 at 12:41 PM
The sinister design of foreign powers to prevent BJP coming to power and return of congress is clearly evident from the foreign sponsered media surveys predicting congress victory and further decline in the popularity of BJP.This is just demoralise the BJP cadre and create confusion among the voters.BJP should therefore be cautious and educate the public to defeat these antinationalist forces and not to fall in trap of these dangerous games.
March 30th, 2009 at 9:27 AM
With DMK Deciding to Contest from Ramanathapuram, BJP has Advantage here. I Dont understand, for what Reason, BJP is not yet clearing the names for TN.
Announce S. Thirunavakarasar as BJP’s Candidate from Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency. He has also shown Interest in contesting from here.
March 30th, 2009 at 9:18 AM
Hari, the vernacular Media in AP as become A Joke.
Eenaadu is biased towards TDP, while sakshi is a mouth piece of ysr family.
March 29th, 2009 at 9:34 PM
With discontent and rebelion in almost all the parties on account of seats declaration,the scenario in A.P is really confusing and beyond the reach of analysis.It is a good time for BJP to capitalize and try to win as many seats.It was good move to candidly put forward Separate Telengana in thier election manifesto but the same requires wider publicity to reach to the public in remote areas of Telengana.It is clear now that congress is not in favour and other regional parties downplay the issue knowing fully well that they cannot do it ,as it has to be done at Delhi level.
March 29th, 2009 at 8:42 PM
It would be interersting to know how the vernacular media is assessing and reporting the trends in AP. In the absence of a clear trend and with the entry of a major new player (PRP) the role of media will be crucial in creating a perception that often tends to be the tilting factor.
The English media that was predicting a YSR wave has suddenly done a U turn and has started reporting that the two fronts are on level terms.
March 29th, 2009 at 7:12 PM
Hari, DMK wold soon wither away post 2009 May.
once karu dies, DMK would split into many segments.