by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
April 6th, 2009 at 7:31 PM
Hari, Nice to Hear Back from You
Jaya and CPM have Sealed The Deal.
CPM is contesting from Kanniyakumari, Madurai and Coimbatore.
Coimbatore is the only seat CPM can Win.
However, if Captain’s Magic Works, He can Oust CPM from the state. As Alagiri is Contestin from Madurai, it would be difficult for CPM to Win from there.
CPI is contesting in North Chennai, Thenkasi(Res) and Nagapattinam(Res).
MDMK is likely to Remain in AIADMK Front until May 16th 2009.
I dont have Any Expectations from Candidates other than Pon Radha Krishnan, Ela Ganesan and Thirunavakarasar among The BJP Candidates. I Wish All Three of Them The Best and am Hopeful, These Three Will Romp Home.
April 6th, 2009 at 7:01 PM
Raj, U are right. The BJP’s chances in Kanyakumari is extremely bright. If CPM and AIADMK go separately then it will be a 5 way contest that will greatly help the BJP.
Ela Gansean is contesting from South Chennai and he can hopefully get over 1.5 lakh votes.
Thirunavakkarasar is contesting from Ramanathapuram and if he still retains his old following he can cause a ripple or two.
All the other candidates can at best get about 5% vote.
The information from the ground is that the DMDK is a hit with the new voters and over 70 % of them are likely to favour the DMDK if they are allowed to freely cast their vote. What Vijaykanth lacks today is the muscle power to prevent the money power mainly of the DMK and to a lesser degree of the AIADMK.
April 6th, 2009 at 6:36 PM
The CPI(M) has been allotted Three Seats, The CPI too has ben given Three Seats. The PMK was Given A Royale of 7!!!
AIADMK wants to Contest 23 as Astrologers have said to her to field her Candidates in 23 Constituencies.
This leaves 4 seats.
It has to be seen whether, Vaiko, who reportedly is seeking 5 would remain in Jaya Front or Join NDA
April 5th, 2009 at 2:05 PM
BJP’s Win in Kanniyakumari is Almost Certain Now.
CPM is fielding It’s Sitting MP from Nagercoil,Bellarin, A Xtian, DMDK has Fieded Austin, A Christian and DMK has announced Helen Davidson as it’s Candidate.
Therefore, The Christian Votes will clearly be split three way and this has Strengthened BJP’s Chances of Victory in Kanniyakumari-The Southernmost Constituency of Indian Mainland!!!
April 4th, 2009 at 9:49 PM
I thought so.. thanks for the insight…
April 4th, 2009 at 3:11 PM
Dear AK, The Wek is a Communist Magazine run by a keralite.
the whole survey has NO Logic.
Further, how can anyone predict the exact num ber?
this shows, it was an opinionated survey whose numbers have ben hastily manipulated to present themselves as neutral and in the manipulation have forgot Logic.
April 4th, 2009 at 11:07 AM
I don’t know how people come up with these weird surveys,
Look at this one from AP,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4355032.cms
According to it
Congress 124
TDP 106
PRP 57
————-
287
Leaving 7 seats for TRS,BJP,CPI, CPM….
Dear Raj, have u heard of this agency before, I thought it might be AP specific…
April 4th, 2009 at 10:03 AM
Certainly AK Bhai. And This is The Right time for Modi Ji to Campaign here.
And Save Sri Ram Sethu should be Made An Election Issue in Telangana Region.
In Telangana and Orissa Modi Ji Should Campaign(ofcourse, He has been Campaigning in Orissa) and Thatz Real Good News.
April 3rd, 2009 at 11:40 PM
Good News from Telengana,
Narendra Modi to campaign in AP (read Telengana) from Apr 6th,
http://andhraheadlines.com/State/BrowseArticle.aspx?tab=1&ArtID=40980
Last trip of Mr Modi charged up BJP Cadre which is critical for BJP doing well.
I think if Mr Modi attends 10-15 meetings in AP, it will increase its assembly tally from 30 to 50 in Telengana, which will be king maker in Assembly.
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:49 PM
I Think She Cant Speak Telugu.
April 3rd, 2009 at 12:46 PM
Why was not Bangaru Laxman wife given a ticket from there
April 3rd, 2009 at 12:29 PM
V.Jaipal(A Former MLA,Got Elected in ’85 and ’89 to AP Assembly). Warrangal has become a low profile constituency as it has all of a sudden been Reserved for SCs. NO Big Leaders are in The Fray here due to the same.
Had warrangal remained unReserved, The Fight would have been between Yeraaballi Dayakar Rao of TDP and Janga Reddy of BJP
April 3rd, 2009 at 12:26 PM
and The EC is Openly NOT Taking any action because of naveen chawla and the evangelical funded media is simply bRefusing to make this A Headline or cover the story.
Only Eenaadu is covering this story. No other paper does.
But, the good News is Eenaadu Paper is The Most Widely and Still Highly Respected Paper among Telugus.
April 3rd, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Raj,
Who is BJPs candidate from Warrangal?? i think they are not contesting!!!
April 3rd, 2009 at 7:29 AM
Raj,
I know it is unthinkable for us to believe that Muka will ever seek trhe support of Brahmins, but political compulsions are such and with most castes identifying with one political party or other and not one party in TN willing to even remotely been seen as a party that cares for Brahmins, the community will gladly support the first party that GENUINELY shows concern for them.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Grand Alliance is turnig out to be Grinding Alliance with everyone suspicious of each other.
http://elections.ndtv.com/news_story.aspx?ID=NEWEN20090089539&type=election
Tommorow, we will come to know if anyone withdrew from the seats alloted to partners.
From the last I heard , TDP had put candidates on 22/45 seats for TRS, TRS had put 7 extra candidates in assembly seats. It might turn out to be 5-6 cornered contest in many constituencies.
April 3rd, 2009 at 12:12 AM
Guys! AP CM YSR’s son-in-law is going berserk all over AP openly organizing meetings asking all Christians to vote for Congress. His supporters are murdering hindus if they protest. He left lakhs of rupees in a hotel when police raided it on information that he is distributing money in the election. He is organizing with state machinery large scale christian conversion meetings all over AP.
April 2nd, 2009 at 11:14 PM
Hari, let’s wait for A Couple of Days.Vaiko’s MDMK is Quite unhappy with Jaya as she is Humiliating Him while New Entrant PMK has been given A Royale!!!!
There are Firm Reports of Vaiko Returning to MDMK fold.
And thatz Good News.
soon, The Poll Picture in TN will come out Clear
April 2nd, 2009 at 11:12 PM
Hahahahahahaha
before DMK joins The Q of Wooing Brahmins, DMK would Dismantle.
As DMK woing Brahmins Wont Start until muka Dies.
April 2nd, 2009 at 11:00 PM
In this election in Tamil Nadu the only realistic chance that the BJP has is in Kanyakunari and that too if the other parties choose Christain candidates. The BJP should use this election to have atleast 10 to 15% vote in 40 assembly segments. This would make them a viable ally and not so untouchable as they now appear.