by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
April 17th, 2009 at 7:24 AM
Raja, BJP Will WIN A Minimum of 3 Seats from where they went to polls in Orissa
The Tribal Belt is A BJP Stronghold.
BJD soeant count in The Tribal Region.
April 17th, 2009 at 12:47 AM
Based on the feedback received from Maharashtra, Jharkhand, hatisgarh, Bihar & UP, I guess BJP led NDA has to wait till 2014 for tasting power. Minorities, SC/STs have voted in a big way in Phase I. Way it is going BJP may end up with 120-125 seats only and NDA at 165-170 seats.
Based on what I have gathered from preliminary sources is given below.
1) Maharashtra : UPA sweep in Vidharbha (UPA = 7-8, NDA = 2-3) and advantage in Marathwada (UPA = 2-3, NDA = 0-1)
2) Jharkhand : UPA has upper hand (UPA = 3-4, NDA = 0-1, Others = 1-2). Yeshwant Sinha, Karia Munda may lose.
3) Orissa : INC sweep (INC = 6, BJP+ = 1, BJD/NCP/Left = 3)
4) Bihar : NDA & RJD+ neck and neck (NDA = 7, RJD+ = 6)
5) UP : INC/BJP wash out. Main fight between SP & BSP (BSP = 8-9, SP = 4-5, BJP = 1-2, INC = 0-1). Yogi Adiyanath, Murli M Joshi may lose.
6) Assam = INC upper hand (INC = 2, BJP+ = 1)
7) Chattisgarh : INC is on a road to recovery. Local level anti-incumbency against sitting MPs is peaking. (BJP = 6-7, INC = 4-5). BJP has miscalculated on this issue.
North East : INC has an upper hand (INC = 4 , NDA = 2, Left = 1)
I was surprised by the feedback and am cross-checking to be really sure.
Would give the final estimates tomoprrow by 8PM after cross-checking with other sources.
April 16th, 2009 at 5:30 PM
News From TamilNadu:
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Sarath+clinches+deal+with+BJP&artid=IZ%7cQ9w44PvQ%3d&SectionID=vBlkz7JCFvA%3d&MainSectionID=vBlkz7JCFvA%3d&SEO=Actor-politician+R+Sarath+Kumar&SectionName=EL7znOtxBM3qzgMyXZKtxw%3d%3d
Hari, Need You Input.
Now, BJP Winning Kanniyakumari is A Certain, as Karthik(A Thevar) too is with BJP, which again has Put A Thevar Candidate, Thirunavukarasar in Ramanathapuram, where Thevars are Large in Population, BJP has got higher Chances of Winning in Ramanathapuram as well.
South Chennai, is An Elite Constituency and Thatz The Primary Reason, People feel, BJP Will Win from here, further, A 4 Way Split will be Advantage BJP
April 16th, 2009 at 4:53 PM
Vikas Ji, The Reason Why Micro-Management is NOT so Important for BJP in States Where BJP is NOT so Popular, but, yet is expected to Win A Considerable Number of Seats is : In Such states Like AP,TN;BJP is NOT Present in All Constituencies and even where Present is Only Amongst The Urban Middle Class Who Dont Make Fuss during Elections.BJP is NOT well Known and There is NO Awareness of National Issues among The Rural Population and thereby, these opinion Polls which are conducted largely in urban slums and rural areas in these states make it appear that These are Zero Zone States for BJP. But, The Fact is, BJP is Strong in Certain Specific Constituencies, Particularly, In The Elite Constituencies
April 16th, 2009 at 4:48 PM
Vikas Ji.
I Apologize.
I didnt Mean Anything in Negative about You.
I was Just stating That in Lighter Vein.
But, in The First Place You felt, I have Supported BJP Against The Ground Reality.
NO Hard Feelings Please.
And We Need Your Input on UP for The First Two Phases.
April 16th, 2009 at 2:45 PM
Dear Raj
I had never rubbished your ideas anytime.
I had only looked for ground figures and even at several times substantiated them; if u rememnber ihad forwarded MLC elections results & figures, previous LS elections (specifically 1998) results.
Even, if u felt like I had not give due respect to your ideas. Really, i make a humble request I am very sorry.
But Raj I always look for micro ground realities and then only accept any argument. And also I highly value your micro ground level information particalurly about Andhra and several TN seats. I had learn a lot from your posts and collected vital information.
OK! forget these things but now u will appreciate what I had been writing regularly about the opinion polls. I had always said, these polls will gradually change their language from 2 months back to pre-polling and post-polling. It is happening. One months back in Mar., they were giving 175 app. to NDA with Congress single largest party much ahead of BJP,
now they are putting NDA at 200 around BJP & Congress at almost equal no. and
subsequently, after one month in exit polls they will project NDA above 225 and NDA will end up 250-260 in final counting.
April 16th, 2009 at 1:25 PM
5-7 Lok Sabha seats are Sure for BJP in Andhra Pradesh.
April 16th, 2009 at 1:24 PM
As Elections Draw Closer, People in The Anti-BJP Media have Finally Realized that More They tried to waterdown BJP’s Chances through Opinionated Survey, More The BJP Supporter and Loyalist and Sympathizer got Motivated and Determined to Vote for BJP
April 16th, 2009 at 1:23 PM
Vikas Ji, Many Though, I Was Dreaming When I Mentioned The same!!!
I Still Remember, You Rubbished my Views on AP When I Asserted the same in January-Feb
However, The Hindu has Forgot About Chevella.
The Fact That Baddam BalRam Reddy(Yeah, He has The Name of BalRam Ji and True to His Name, He Galvanizes All Hindu Votes and is A Threat to MIM Goons, He Wins Against All ODDS in Karwan, A Muslim Dominated Constituency in Hyderabad from where to ensure MIM’s victory, congress fields Hindu Candidates) is Fielded from here and His name was Formalized By December itself!!!
And To Those Who Dont Know Much About Him : It is He, Who Always Polled Very High in Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency(Pre-Delimitation, the current Hyderabad Parliamentary constituency has 70% muslim population)and came in Striking Distance of Beating MIM’s Owaissi.
April 16th, 2009 at 12:25 PM
Dear all
Plz. read the link below, what even The Hindu, a known left-leaning and highly anti-BJP newspaper, is writing about BJP chances in Andhra Pradesh.
http://www.hindu.com/2009/04/16/stories/2009041659060200.htm
April 15th, 2009 at 6:52 PM
Good News AK Bhai,People of Telangana are Already Aware That ONLY BJP Can Realize Telangana for Them.
April 15th, 2009 at 6:14 PM
The Sting CD on CBN exposes TDP, I just wish Telegu Channels broadcast it enough, I know NDTV did broadcast it, If people come to know if TDP’s Anti-Telengana Stand, surely all BJP will get more seats against TDP canidates in Telengana…
http://election.rediff.com/report/2009/apr/15/loksabhapoll-on-poll-eve-a-cd-that-can-sting-naidu.htm
What has caused a stir is that the audio also contains Naidu’s stinging remarks against Telangana Rashtra Samiti and the Left Parties who are TDP’s partners in the Grand Alliance. The remarks also put TDP’s commitment to Telangana state under shadows of doubt as Naidu is heard saying in the taped conversation that he was compelled to take pro-Telangana line by “unavoidable circumstances”, and referred to the Telangana Rashtra Samiti president K Chandrasekhara Rao as “unreliable”
The teleconference was between Naidu and senior party leaders like Kadiam Srihari, Ummareddy Venkateshwarulu, K Vijayrama Rao, E Dayakar Rao and many others.
In the recorded conversation Naidu was heard asking the party leaders not to hesitate to spend the money and ensure that money reaches the booth level committees. Reminding the colleagues that he had not asked for any such thing in the last elections, Naidu says, “We have to win this time at any cost.”
April 15th, 2009 at 5:19 PM
BullShit, AP has gone Backward by 20 years under ysr.
All Only on Paper and Widespread Publcity.
AP Developed only in the number of Evangelized lowlives and as A Jehadi Hub over the past 5 years under congress rule
April 15th, 2009 at 4:38 PM
In AP only one state which is most devolapd state in India in last 5 years.
Rajiv Arogya sree,Finance schem with intrest @ .25 pisa , 2 rs rice,108 and 104,Indira Housing Sceam,200 Rs pension schems for old people, 500 to 2000 Rs.pensions,Rajiv Yuva sakthi for Young people lot of good activites more than he promised at the time of 2004 elaction.
He is great.If people having consious They sholud vote for Congress.
April 15th, 2009 at 6:20 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mnp3BpxLD0&feature=relateds
April 15th, 2009 at 1:25 AM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4396986.cms
April 15th, 2009 at 1:02 AM
well for BJP supporters out there, new video, desh raag by BJP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFUtUhCsTaE
April 14th, 2009 at 11:06 PM
On The Day Election Results will be announced, People would be Shocked to find out that in Maharashtra upa will NOT be able to get more than 10-12 seats.
The dalits and Minorities do Not constitute more than 21% of Maharashtra’s Vote share.
April 11th, 2009 at 9:48 PM
And Also Hari, then;way back in ’98, Tambaram,saidapet which had christian Dominated slums that were part of South Chennai Constituency. Post Delimitation, South Chennai has Become An Elite Constituency comprising of Mylapore,T Nagar,Velachery(A Good Section of Velachery is Pro BJP)
April 11th, 2009 at 7:00 PM
The BJP in TN should effectively use their limited manpower, moneypower and musclepower effectively and not spread them by contesting all the seats. Good performance in a few seats is better than a getting few thousand votes in majority of the seats they contest. The vernacular print media and the visual media show the BJP to a serious contender in only one seat i.e. Kanyakumari. This message gets drained into the mind of the voters and prevents the BJP in obtaining its due share of votes.
The fact that the BJP is not such an untouchable in TN can be gauged with the fact that Jana Krishnamurthy in Chennai south polled over 4 lakh votes in alliance with Jaya and lost by a mere 21000 votes to TR Balu and that too due to DMK’s standard foul play in elections.