by Chakresh Mishra
Jun 18, 2008Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
UPA WON, NDA/3rdF/4thF LOOSE. See the results here and Join the debate here
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
June 28th, 2008 at 12:11 AM
reg Tamil Nadu, your analysis ignores the role of DMDK. Vijaykanth polled nearly 9 % of the vote in 2006 assembly elections . He repeated the performance in the local body elections a year later. DMDK even almost pushed ADMK to third place in the two bye elections in 2007
Vijaykanth was not a factor in 2004 lok sabha polls and most of the people outside tamil nadu don’t realise that he is the joker in the deck now. He is being effectively wooed by DMK, congress, ADMK, BJP and the communists. His vote bank holds the key. And since his is a largely anti-DMK and Naidu votebank, ADMK and MDMK stand to lose if DMDK contests alone or forms some sort of third front. And you have given MDMK and PMK 3 seats each. They can’t win a single seat if they contest alone. They don’t have the strength to win any single parliamentary constituency
Your Split up of TN seats resembles the 1998 election. This time the scene is completely different. Here are the possibile coalition scenarios
1) DMDK + ADMK + BJP + MDMK + PMK = NDA Sweep
But DMDK eats into MDMK vote bank in the south and PMK vote bank in the north. So whether Vaiko and Ramadoss are willing to fuel Vijaykanth’s growth remains to be seen
2) DMDK + ADMK + BJP = NDA majority but not outright sweep, maybe 30 seats
3) ADMK + BJP + MDMK + PMK with DMDK as third front = 50-50 split for NDA and UPA
4) DMK + CONG + CPI + CPM + DPI + DMDK = UPA majority may be 30-35 seats
July 6th, 2008 at 2:02 PM
You are absolutely correct bala, Vijaykanth is a only one to be a alternate for DMK (party will expire after M.Karunanidhi) and ADMK (Already in sick).
July 6th, 2008 at 2:08 PM
The interesting thing is the election commission announced percentage of vote received by individual parties after 2006 assembly election and said DMDK got 9%. But they refused to announce the same after local body election.
July 6th, 2008 at 3:02 PM
Every politician has started to copy the policies of Captain.Captain said in his election manifesto that he wouldvgive 10 kg free rice every month,immediately Jaya said she would give 15 kilo rice.When Captain opened free computer classes in Viruthachalam,Vaiko started in Kalinkappatty.When Captain asked free cable connection with TV Ramadass also reiterated the same.Captain said ration goods will reach the houses,now in someother way MK is planning to give packed articles. Captain had already requested the government to allow palmara climbers to prepare toddy as it is less in alchohol contents.Now most recently Sarathkumar has demanded the same to the goverment.So Captain is the inspiration to all politicians in Tamilnadu
July 7th, 2008 at 9:57 PM
and more actors followed by him…..
Karthick and Sarath Kumar
July 8th, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Hi
Seeing the recent political analysis, It seems that BJP is likely to win 9 out of 11 seats in North Karnataka.Raichur is 50-50 chance for both BJP and COngress .Gulbarga a striong hold of congress..
BJP will surely win all 3 seats of coastal Karnataka and 2 out of 3 seats of central karnatakl(Chitradurga being 50-50)
BJP will win 4 out of 5 seats in Bangalore region.One may go to COngress
BJP is likely to win 2 seats in other old Mysore region(Mysore and TTumkur).Kolar chance of BJP is high.JDS will win 2 seats.Congres is likely to win Chamarajanagr seat
So
BJP’s high chance in 21 seats
Congress sure of 3 seats
JDS sure of 2 seats
50-50 chance between BJP and COng in 2 seats.
I predict atleast 21 seats for BJP from Karnataka
July 17th, 2008 at 7:17 PM
In the analysis about AP you didn’t take into account recent elections which can be considered the biggest poll survey bcuz elections were conducted in all 10 districts. Barring the Hyderabad city results where there are lots of non telangana settlers who are against telangana..TRS got a 37% vote where as TDP got 29% and congress only 25%. Now with Devendar out of TDP and break up in TDP and lot more to jump on Devendar wagon and with arrival of chiranjeevi who is going to break major portions of congress and TDP and little of TRS(like 3 to 5 percent whereas for congress and TDP could be anything like 10 percent) he could cause a death blow to congress and TDP vote back though he may not emerge a winner in telanaga. With TRS and NNTP tying up and Congress fighting on its own TDP with CPM or chiranjeevi on his own or with CPM TRS and NNTP and BJP could win all the seats in Telanagana (11). And in andhra 8 each for congress TDP and Chiranjeevi with others getting the rest. But if TDP ties up with others in telanagana Chiru may get 10 in andhra and congress may get more than 10 in andhra.And telanagana combine might sweep all the seats in Telangana.The news channels TV9 ,Gemini and others are congress mouth pieces so they always try to spread it that TRS and telangana are gone but the sentiment is very much there and it could show its full impact on national politics this year.TRS combine will get 9+ and congress is out of the game.
July 23rd, 2008 at 2:59 AM
I agree with the karnakara and kerala states predict. But I not agree with Andhra pradresh and Tamil nadu states predict. In Andhra, TRS will sweep more number of constituencies in the Telugana region. TDP will win 25-30 with BJP allies. And the ruling Congress failed in all departments in the Andhra and also Central Since Congress win below 10 numbers in this state.
In Tamil nadu, DMDK is grooming in to the major party they proved their strength in last elections. People of tamil nadu looking for a new party to rule, Because DMK & ADMK are ruled randomly last 50 Years. So DMDK sees to get more 20+ seats to allies with the national parties.
July 26th, 2008 at 5:08 PM
In Karnataka BJP would make a Clean sweep as JD(S) of Dewe Gowda is Tying up with BSP and Communists. BSP would make a dent into INC Vote Bank and therefore BJP would win about 21 Seats in Karnataka.
In Kerala BJP Can Win Two Seats this time.
In Andhra Pradesh, Chiru Sweep in The Central & Northern Coastal Districts, while in Southern Coastal Districts and in Rayalaseema, Congress would make a clean sweep.
In Telangana, if TRS ombines with TDP, Devendra Goud with BJP and Communists with Chiru, then BJP-Dev endra Goud would emerge as clear Winners leaving behind TDP-TRS combine and congress while Chiru-Communists-Lok Satta would draw a blank in Telangana.
So, Finally The Picture in AP would be : INC-MIM ,Majlis(Hyd) = 14
chiru+lok satta(of Jai Prakash) + Commies = 14, TDP+TRS+BSP=7,
BJP+ Devendra Goud =7
so, TDP would be the real loser in AP
TN , The most likely pre-poll alliances would be : ADMK+BJP+PMK+MDMK(Vaiko)+Dr.Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party , This would Win about 20 seats
DMDK(Vijay Kant)+ Communists+BSP may get around 14 seats
and This leaves DMK+congress combine with 5+1(Pondicherry, wnhere Congress CM enjoys goodwill of People), PS that I am giving DMK – Congress combine more seats then I actually should have
July 26th, 2008 at 7:42 PM
—-> It is likely to be DMK holds all its allies except PMK and got enough respect to people PRECENTLY, even PMK joined hand with ADMK+BJP+MDMK .
—–>But it is seeming to be ADMK allies will get more seats as DMK lost its popularity as unable to stop price hike
——>As far as DMDK is concerned, CAPTAIN definitely get enough respect to the people(IF NOT JOINED HANDS WITH ANY PARTIES)
——->I numerically not want to pointed out any seats but ADMK will get 20-23 seats only if they form allies with BJP,PMK,MDMK
——–>But PMK likely to joined hand with cong.(as ramdoss mentioned always) so he might gather his chance to join UPA
——–>If DMK holds all its allies including PMK have a nice chance to get around 15-18 seats NECK to NECK with ADMK
——–>But it is a nice chance to DMDK to get BULK amount of votes
(up to 15 to 20 percent) improving a lot from its past elections if stand alone
———->So DMDK has a reasonable chance to get 3-4 of 5 seats which is a step forward to captains future plans
———>It is the time to prove Sarath kumar too (but i don’t think he get enough as he has no reasonable masses since he even unable to prove himself in 1996 election ( as a DMK canditate) in thirunelveli losing it with ADMK canditate)
——->Both Sarath and karthik get around 2-5% of votes if they allies together not even get deposit as it is clear for me
——–>splitting Nadar and Thevar votes from Congress and ADMK respectively by these two hasn’t have any matter to SPEAK a lot
July 27th, 2008 at 7:33 AM
I am expecting this will be the scenario in 2009 election(If held in summer)
120-125 TDP
70-75 Chiru+
45-55 Cong+
25-30 CPI+CPM+TRS+devender Goud(NTP)(0-2)
20-25 BJP+
3-4 MIM+
July 27th, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Dear Reddy, Your Arithmatic seems Bereft of Logic.
I am Staunch Anti Congress Man and am in Particularly against Yesupada Samuel Reddy and Sonia Maino.
But, let’s be closer to Reality.
With The Loss of Devendra Goud, TDP has lost Morale in Telangana.
Nava Telangana Praja Party of T. Devendra Goud and TRS are unlikely to join Hands.
Most likely, NTPP AND BJP Would be Allies.
KCR has also lost credibility and would further lose so if he joins hands with NCB Naidu, who is firmly against the creation of Telangana.
Chiru would eat into TDP’s votes and most likely TDP would be reduced to Kammas and Madigas who support them.
with Kapus population ranging from 18-22% , most likely, a Majority of these would vote for chiru+lok satta+ Communists combinme except in telangana as they are against the formation of telangana.
In this battle, due to fiercely fought triangular contests in Costa and Rayalaseema(here chiru may not find much support) and Quadrangular fight in Telangana.
Certainly, the final Tally would be much closer with NO Formation nearing the half way mark
This leaves Congress with 95-105
Chiru with 65-70(Mostly in Coastal Region)
BJP-NTPP(Assuming a Sweep in Telanagana and some gains for BJP elsewhere) 50-60
and TDP-TRS-BSP with 60-70
others like MIM and Independents with 5-10
July 27th, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Dear Muthu Krishnan, The DMK has lost all its Allies except for Congress.
The Left Parties are likely to Join Vijay Kant’s DMDK, but how far DMDK can make an Impact in National Eletions has to be seen.
so far, He has NOT made any Staement on National Politics and what His Party’s Stand is.
However, going by the present trend, He is most likely to playh safe being unattached, as Alliance with Left Forces for the upcoming elections Dont mean a thing in a State like TN.
DMK-Congress are going to have a Seat Adjustment of 25 and 14+1 for the Parliament Elections.
PMK is a Fence sitter and sensing who would Win the elections would go with them.
As DMDK and PMK are Staunch Rivals,PMK can only opt with ADMK led Alliance.
One Interesting Aspect is how would DMK-Congress Alliance deal with Dayanidhi Maran, The Estranged Grand Nephew of MuKa
July 31st, 2008 at 4:59 AM
I think in Kerala the BJP could surprise the pundits with some win. Don’t know the exact number.
In Tamilnadu PMK could be shunned by both Jayalalitha and MK. and would be facing its waterloo as a political party. DMDK would find itself stranded again in the middle. All said and done it is basically a Naidu political outfit. Sarathkumar’s Nadar outfit and Karthik’s Thevar party won’t be cutting much ice either. The commies and the dalit parties could get accommodation with the DMK-Congress alliance though the Communists have a lot to explain this for joining an alliance that they tried to vote out of power. But then they don’t give a damn as long as they can win a seat or two!
There is lot of price rise, inflation, unemployment etc. working as anti-incumbency and DMK cannot cannot continue the hoodwinking with the color TV scheme. The SSCP is a white elephant through which money is ploghed back to the party leaders and it is going to end and their tirade against Hindus are not going to be appreciated. The DMK itself is on the verge of splitting but the grand old man is keeping the bunch together with his frail old hands. Congress too is not a cohesive party with so many back stabbers lurking against each other in darkness. Only Sonia’s money bag is holding them together. God knows if this UPA combine has any appeal left among the masses. What happened to JJ in the last parliamentary election might happen to UPA in this parliamentary election. Don’t be surprised!
July 31st, 2008 at 5:04 AM
In Karnataka I agree with Raj’s analysis. BJP is enjoying the honeymoon with people!
In Andhra Congress may not repeat the results of the last election. It may result in a hung assembly. Parliamentary election could bring a three way split.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Dear Anbu, but, still I feel PMK Would Shamelessly ally with JJ. They have proved that ll they want is a few MP Seats and Plump Cabinet Positions.
or else, from ’98 till date, howz it that PMK is in Cabinet ?
They have NO Logic and are just a Caste based outfit.
In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana may see A Four Cornered Contest if BJP And Dendra Goud’s Nav Telangana Praj Party Allign. If They do, they would be the clear winners in The Telangana Region.
In any Case, TDP And Babu would be the biggest losers in All three Regions.
August 7th, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Hi All,
DMDK growing up.But I think it is not eligible to stand alone in Mp elections. Because anyway MP election depends upon Prime Minister position. So better making alliance with UPI is very useful to Captain and as well as continue in state elections too. My guess now DMDK having 25 – 28 %. There is only the reason No alliance with DMK and ADMK(This word from Captain). So let us see what happen?
August 13th, 2008 at 9:34 PM
Latest Developments in TN Indicate Re-Allignment of Forces in There.
Flash Flash Flash
AIADMK Chief Jayalalita is Likely to Ally with Maywati and Communists, with MDMK Already in their kitty, soon PMK is ready to Join this Alliance and Ditch DMK.
This Leaves The Realligned forces in TN as :
DMK-INC-Dalit Panthers of India(if it chooses to contest National Elections), This is most likely to be a loser
AIADMK-BSP-PMK-MDMK-CPI(M)-CPI, umn, a Real Grand Alliance!!!
Likely to Win A Majority of seats :25-30
Most likely The Estranged Maran is likely to Join BSP or ontest as BSP Candidate in 2009.
This leaves, BJP , Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party, A .C. Shanmugam’s New Justice Party in The Wilderness.
Is anyone left?
Yes, and That is DMDK of Captain Vijaykant.
In 2006, to test His waters, He preferred to go alone but, this time for the National Elections which would be fought on Different Issues, where Freebies Dont matter, it is more likely that DMDK, BJP, Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party and A.C. Shanmugam’s New Justice Party are likely to form an Electoral Alliance.
RAJ
August 14th, 2008 at 2:53 PM
The situation right now in AP
Cong will sweep Rayalaseema + Southeren Costal Region and gives good fight in Coastal Andhra (North and Central) + Tough situation in Telangana.
If TRS + TDP + Left joins together then will sweep Telangana.
Chiru will win Coastal Andhra (North and Central) but rest of the state he will be nominal.
There is takers for BJP + NTP(Devender) in AP, I doubt can they open the account State Elections? MP seats forget it.
Rayalaseema + Southeren Costal Region Total 11 Cong 9 TDP 1
Coastal Andhra (North and Central) Total 14 Chiru 7 Cong 4 TDP 1
Telangana (including Hyd) Total 17 MIM 1 TDP+TRS+LEFT 12 Cong 4
AP: Cong 17 TDP 9 TRS 4 CPM 1 Chiru 7 MIM 1
Having said that whatever changes will happen they will be in favour of Chiru and against TDP and Cong.
September 6th, 2008 at 11:45 AM
Hello Share View:
TRS’s alliance with TDP will prove Disastrous
In Telangana its going to be BJP – NTPP of Devedra Goud who will have a clean sweep.
In Uttar Andhra ranging from Bezawada will be Praja Rajyam’s Bastion.
Rayalaseema is a Bed Rock for INC
If Modi campaigns in Hyderabad, MIM will be doomed.
The Muslim Percentage of Hyd is about 40% so even if 42-43 % votes are obtained by BJP, Hyd will be in BJP’s Pocket.
With Lumbini Park’s bombings and intensified attack on Hindu Temples and centre’s soft policy towards terrorism and terrorists to keep muslims happy, it’s certain that BJP will pull A Victory in Hyd.
TRS would fight hard to retain the karimnagar seat.
Even a Kid knows that CBN is against Telangana.
Dakshin Costa will be a battleground between ongress and PrajaRajyam.
The Real Loser will be CBN in 2009.
September 24th, 2008 at 4:00 PM
HI,
In AP I hope all those who are reviewing take cognizance of the fact that all telangana parties have declared that they are going to put up a united front on the eve of elections. But it is not only us the common man but the leaders of telangana parties are bogged down by a tie up situation with all and sundry jumping on the bandwagon except Congress and CMP and chiru party not being committed either ways. But the talk of the town is ,it is dr. mithra who is going to play spoil sport with his left leaning and anti-telangana stand.CPI and CPM have different stands on telangana but they want to stick together. If one analyses the 2004 election constituency wise for last 15 years one can clearly see congress has given seats it could never win to TRS and also CPM and CPI then put up candidates so that TRS couldn’t win more ,if only they had played fair TRS could have won 10 more and CPI and CPM ac couple more.With BJP now being very strong especially in telangana, the most probable outcome could be TRS, BJP,NNTP and Either TDP or PRP which could more or less sweep the pools in legislative assembly. To mix legislative assembly and Loksabha is foolish because there is strong feeling that BJP would return to power and there are instances in past where in an MP won from one party and all MLAs are from other party when elections were held at same time. For loksabha point of view whoever goes with the BJP will get maximum benefit. With SP tying up with congress in UP , BSP has only way of going with BJP else both could end up losing. If BSP joins with BJP that could be the end of a third front at center, and CPI could as well join the bandwagon on telangana combine. All in all one could say congress could only end up winning something like 5 seats for loksabha and 50-90 in assembly.Depends on telangana combinations. But anti incumbency and anti Congress corrupt policies sentiment is very much there. If only the opposition has sense to join the maha combine only for the elections (TDP,PRP,TRS,NNTP,BJP and CPs) then Congress could as well end up with a single digit number in the legislature.Dr. Mithra could as well be the friend in disguise for the congress in PRP.
October 1st, 2008 at 3:48 PM
i feel it will be 8 for the ldf and 12 for the udf in kerala,in karnataka there will be clear sweep for the bjp , tamil nadu of couce it willl benifit aiadmk,orissa it will coupled with naveen patnaik and bjp,andhra it may favour chiranjeevi yaar,goa of cource to bjp so the final oin south india is an hung parliament
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 PM
when are the 2009 parliament elections
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 PM
@vamsi
predictably in feb-march next year now. Though government can decide to resign before, but it doesn’t look like a possibility now.
thanx to stop by.
October 4th, 2008 at 1:32 AM
is BJP that much strong in andhra.. it is very hard to believe…i want bjp to form government in andhra..
October 16th, 2008 at 6:03 PM
considering the power cut problem, it is doubtful of the congress alliance to get at least one seat in M.P.elections. The number of hours announced and un-announced power cuts in mofusil area , other than Chennai city, is nearly 10 hours or upto 12 hours a day. This will create a great set back, if the problem is not looked into before the anouncement of elections to M.P.
October 19th, 2008 at 5:02 PM
Very congrats on this blog.
Yeah the question by karthik is in my mind as well. 4% reservation given to Muslims in police/other government jobs should fuel BJP rise isn’t it.
I am from western UP, have lived in Pune almost all my life and have worked in Chennai/Hyd for a brief period. I have seen extreme Hindu-Muslim polarization in UP, Mah but probably same is not there in southern states (maybe they weren’t affected by partition that much).
With 18% Muslims in UP (reaching to 40% in almost all western UP seats) nobody can dare give them even 1% reservation as that will mean a landslide victory for BJP with all caste equations going for a toss. Won’t this 4% reservation and win in Karnataka fuel BJP growth in AP?
October 21st, 2008 at 9:29 PM
The scene in TN is not clear. Vijaykanth has grown scince the last assembly elections and it does appear that the Congress may be inclined to tie up with him. The PMK has openly stated that they would be prepared for a Congress led alliance in TN which also includes the DMDK. If this scenario unfolds then we may have a 3 way contest with DMK+LEFT+Thirumavalavan on one side Congress+DMDK+PMK on another side and the AIADMK+MDMK+BJP+SARATHKUMAR on the third side. The DMK is facing substantial anti incumbency due to power cuts and rising prices and altough they have tried very hard to make it appear that they have delivered on their election promises it may be tough going for them. Vijaykanth has substantially eroded the youth base of the AIADMK and that party too does not appear in good shape. One thing for sure this time around there will be no clean sweep and the next Govt. at the centre may not have too many pinpricks from their southern ally.
November 3rd, 2008 at 9:22 PM
this time in ANDHRA -2009 Elections, the scene would be completly different.
TDP will be the most disaster looser while CONGRESS will comed down to 2 digits.
As per my prediction.
if TDP+TRS+CPI then it would will decent seats in telangana region and TDP looses drastically in Andhra and rayalseema
it would get 60-70 seats.
CONG will get 70-75 seats
PRP+CPM+BJP+LOKSATTA
140-150 seats.
PRP is very very strong in Andhra region and may clean sweep by winning more than 85 seats and 20-25 seats in rayalseema
and in telangana PRP will sweep in warangal, khammam, nalgonda and some parts in Karim naganr which will get 30-40 seats.
November 8th, 2008 at 7:20 AM
In andhra all your predictionsare wrong mr raj. why , as u told kapus are 15% . but they spraed all andhra. but in godavari disrticts all shedule caste and bachward castes are against kapus including bhramins, yadavas, shetty balijas, gavaras visyas.and in west godavari , krishna, guntur, nellore, ongole, khammam kamma are more than 25% to 40% in 80 seats. . becausre these people are concentrated in these areas only. In nortern andhra koppula velama who are more than 25% in 30seats are stand behind tdp in srikakulam, vizayanagaram and vizag..chiru may get majority in east godavari . . in telangana tdp may get (with cpm and trs) 60 to 80. i rayalaseema cong will lead in cuddapha , kurnool, and chittor, there are also tdp may get some 6 to 10 seats. in anatapur tdp will lead, .in telangana and in andhra chiru party will spoil or divide most of thecong votes . where kapus and munnuru kapus are strong vote bank to cong earlier now joined with chiruthats why costal tdp is main party .in rayalaseema cong will lead. In telangana tdp ,trs may lead. Chiranjeevi spoil cong chances and may get less than 40 seats. my
November 13th, 2008 at 11:31 PM
Yes exactly,srinivasaraosharma is correct.most of the kapu’s in costal region are vote bank for congress earlier now joining with chiru may be gain for TDP.
November 13th, 2008 at 11:35 PM
one point need to understand most of the chiru fans were against Balayya and TDP so definitely PRP wont split much vote bank at the cost of TDP but congress.
November 16th, 2008 at 1:47 PM
I REQUEST THE PEOPLE OF ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU TOBE INDIANS FIRST AND THEN YOUR LANGUAGE/STATE
PLEASE PLEASE PEOPLE OF AP AND TN , DO NOT VOTE FOR CONGRESS PARTY……..
CONGRESS PARTY IS ANTI HINDU/ANTI INDIA/ ANTI NATIONALISM
November 16th, 2008 at 1:47 PM
I REQUEST THE PEOPLE OF ANDHRA PRADESH AND TAMIL NADU TOBE INDIANS FIRST AND THEN YOUR LANGUAGE/STATE
PLEASE PLEASE PEOPLE OF AP AND TN , DO NOT VOTE FOR CONGRESS PARTY……..
CONGRESS PARTY IS ANTI HINDU/ANTI INDIA/ ANTI NATIONALISM
November 21st, 2008 at 9:08 AM
yes its true that kerala is alunatic asylum,only two fronts are dominating like ldf and udf both are having some persontage of muslim and christian votes when udf is having muslim league the ldf tried to find some extremeist in ldf so they where flexible to extremist of muslim which made some terrorist in kannur
people of kerala should at least find the double game of marxist, if this happens udf will win in 9, ldf 10 , 1 may get for bjp this time in kerala
if siddarammaiyya joins bjp then bjp will sweep in karnataka too coz of alva issue also
rajnikantyh may not join bjp, if so bjp may gain 5 seats from tamilnadu
November 23rd, 2008 at 1:31 AM
The karnataka state situation is some what looking unpredictable. There were lot of hopes on new Govt. It is already 6 months , but no significant chnage sin te state, Even the CM admits it.But People of Karnataka generally do not consider State and Parliament as the same,so Thats a plus point for BJP, If they were judged by present govt’s governance(atleast until now) BJP may end up in 15 seats,Giving INC arnd 7 seats and JDS 6 seats. IF govt performs well in next 6 months BJP Can even fetch upto 24 seats..
November 25th, 2008 at 12:33 AM
Telanga status for MLA seats:
The currrent situation in andhra pradesh has been changing day by day,TDP is gaining its lost roots.TDP is clear in forming and supporting telangana.TDP definately will do well in telangana region and with the aliance of Communist are going sweep many parts of telangana. With unclear agenda on telangana issue Congress is going to loose most of the telangana region.The corruption is very high and telanga is derailed from development,hyderabad has witnessed negative growth.
If TRS joins TDP then TDP is unstoppable.
TDP+CPI+CPM- 60
If TDP+TRS+CPI+CPM -85
Congress:15 to 20(With a difficulty)
PRP+NTPP-2 – 3
If TRS+Congress -45
BJP-2
Andhra status:
Because of PRP, TDP is going to gain:
Reason:
Because of cast politics PRP might be doing well in east godavari,and at the same TDP will do better in west godavri due the split in votes of congress by PRP.
In coastal region due the split of votes between PRP and congress congress will be loosing the base,and TDP vote shre will not affected.
Congess:20
TDP:60
PRP:20
Rayalaseema Region:
Because of chranjeevi TDP is going to do well in rayalaseema.All the congress vote share is going drop by 5 to 6 % as copmpared to last year.These lost votes are added to TDP vote share.Even balakrishana factor will be added to TDP.
Here congress will be in some what better position as compared to other regions.
TDP:60
Congress:35
PRP:1(If luck favours)
On the whole chiranjeevi factor will benifit TDP.
Over all AP:
TDP:160 TO 170
Congress:80 to 90
PRP:35 to 40
Bjp:2 to 3
TRS:10 TO 15
Over all
November 25th, 2008 at 11:40 AM
TDP will emerge as leading party in telangana.Congress is no where in the contest,the contest is going to be in between TDP and PRP.
TDP-150 – to 170
Congress-50 – 60
PRP-45-50
TRS-15
BJP-1 – 2
CPI-CPM-15 – 20
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:45 PM
With the latest developmetns in andhra the TDP alliance with CPI and CPM will give strength to TDP.Even there are equal chances of forming a
alliance with TRS which will sweep the telangana.Congress will be totally diappeared from telangana.Even in andhra region congress will go out of the picture.Rayalaseema congress amy do well.
Praja rajyam may play crusial role in andhra but according to predictions
prajarajyam is not going to do any miracles.
Congress alone fights then 80 to 90
TDP+TRS+CPI+CPM will get 180 to 190
PRP will get 30 to 40
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:25 PM
u are an amateur BJP supporter
I am a kannadiga. Karnataka will be split 13-13-2 btw the BJP congress and JDS and in case of a JDS congress coalition it will be 23-5 against the BJP
Kerala will be 10-9-1 for congress-LEft-NDA
Tamil nadu is highly unpredictable and is fully based on alliances. anyone with vijaykantha DMDK will benefit
Andhra i think 19-13-7-3 UPA-TDP-Chiru- OTHERS
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Hi Friends, I dont understand why People are thinking TDP to be still a force in AP. It is reduced to Kamma-Madiga Party.
In Telanagana Region, in may 2008 by-Elections, KCR found it hard to retain his MP Seat. People of Telangana No Longer trust TRS.
Devender Goud’s Party is maintaining a low profile and He is travelling across all the ten districts. BJP’s Sankalpa Yatra was also a success. It seems more likely that BJP And Nav Telangana Praja Party are likely to form an Alliance. Another Political Party, Lok Satta of Dr. Jai Prakash Narayan is likely to join hands with BJP.
Chiru may go alone though he indicated he may form a feeble alliance with BJP but has constantly declined to be a Part of NDA.
TDP-TRS-BSP-CPI-CPM are supposed to form a Grand alliance. Congress, NTR-TDP-Lakshmi Parvati Group and MIM(Majlis-e-muthalhil) may form an alliance
If Narendra Bhai Modi Campaigns in Hyderabad and in Telangana, He can Polarize The Hindu Votes to BJP Camp. Remember, in Hyderabad The Muslim population is only about 40-42%, so if BJP Gets 45% of The Votes, clearly BJP Can Win in addition to Secunderabad!!!!
so, in my View in Telangana, BJP-NTPP-Lok Satta and Telangana Janata Party(which has 2 assembly seats in the present assembly and is related to Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Janata Party) would get about 7 seats, TDP-TRS-BSP-CPI-CPM would get about 5 seats,Congress about 3 and Praja Rajyam 2.
In Rayalaseema, of the 8 seats, Congress would win about 6 seats while TDP-BSP-CI-CPM may win 1-2 and Praja Rajyam would at the most win 1 seat here. This is the region where BJP has almost NO Presence in AP.
In Coastal Andhra Pradesh, we have in total 17 seats, in which, Congress is extremely strong in South Coastal District. With Nethuramalli Janardhan Reddy contesting the Nellore Parliamentary seat, Congress is for sure going to retain this one. Congress is also strong in Bapatla. In Ongole, Tenali it would be a fierce fight between Congress, and TDP. Bezawada, Guntur, Eluru, Machalipatnam, Rajamundry, Kakinanda, Visakhapatnam and other Coastal District would offer a fierce Traingular and in certain cases quadrangular fights. Remember, BJP is strong in Rajamundry, Kakinada and Visakhapatnam which has about 30% Brahmin Population. If Brahmins come out in large proportion in Visakhapatnam, BJP is sure to Win from here even if it contests all alone.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:37 PM
srivatsa, you are a pseudo secular Anti BJP guy.
you seem to be a congressi and an Anti-National.
if congress can manage even 100 seats in next election, it would be a Great Wonder.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:42 PM
So my Analysis for AP is that congress- MIM would get about 120 seats
TDP-TRS-BSP-CPI-CPM would get 75 seats
Praja Rajyam Party would be able to get 60 seats and the remaining 40 Seats for BJP- Lok Satta Nava Telangana Praja Party
ofcourse this is a Rough Estimation.
December 9th, 2008 at 1:10 PM
In AP chiru will spoil TDP to get many seats , so results would be like cong 15 TDP 10 -12 PRP 10 TRS 4-6 OTHERS remaining seats
But IN TAMIL NADU vijayakanth can not make like chiru in AP, Vijaykanth may get 10 -12 % votes but he can not win single in up comping elections if he contest the election without alliance
December 9th, 2008 at 2:56 PM
I do not think ADMK alliance has the chance to win more than 20 seats
Because up coming MP election triangle contest would be in tamil nadu this will give Ideal chance to win more seats to DMK alliance and also i like to say one more thing the ADMK may get 10+ seats with allies it will reach to halfway mark with include pondy ,do not compare PMK and DDMK, PMK strong presence in northern dts and western dts of tamil nadu so with out PMK on one could win at least 15 seats in tamil , no one should forget vanniyar communities comprise nearly 12-14 % of tamil nadu total population , vanniyar community is the single largest caste in TN ,
December 20th, 2008 at 1:40 PM
ADMK alliance is going to SWEEP this time in Tamil Nadu. There is a very high ANTI INCUMBENCY wave in tamil nadu. Simply go thru the 2006 assembly election results, ADMK lost 20 seats by less than 2000 votes. This time without support of communists, frequent power cuts, industrial slowdown, inflation and lot of corruption I dont see why even DMK people themselves will vote for that party. Even though Maran brothers have patched up with DMK, I still dont see SUN NEWS favoring DMK. Remember, during 2006 elections SUN TV was one of the major factors in marketing DMK’s promises. And I dont think it will be repeated. ADMK still is the single largest party in tamil nadu and a triangular contest will more likely benefit them. DMDK even if it goes with BJP may not get a single seat as they dont have enough percentage of votes.
Chennai, once considered to be strong hold of DMK has now changed to ADMK due to uninterrupted water supply given during ADMK regime, rowdism was never an issue during jayalalitha’s period. Now forward bloc has also given support to ADMK which was missing in 2006 and now they can capture back the southern seats which they lost. In Tamil Nadu people are more worried about local politics than national politics, so I see chances of ADMK sweeping all 40 seats a high possibility.
December 23rd, 2008 at 12:39 PM
I think chiru wil change the political eqns.Day by day PRP wil become stronger. we have to accept it. at the same time CON is already in safe position.
as per my analysys :
CON: 85-95, TDP: 60-70, PRP: 80-90, TRS: 15-20, Others: 20-30
let us see what wil happen.
December 28th, 2008 at 2:29 AM
TELLER urs is a total mis calculation. What is the basis for ur prediction. Don’t get carried away by congress propognada or the Congress supporting Tv channels Tv9 and NTV or TDP channesl TV5 ETv2. Just go through the history of last 4 decaded and trends. It is ridiculous to say TRS would get 15. Are you assuming it is TRS against TDP+Cong+BJP+PRP+NTP+CPM+CPI+MIM+etc? If you can just check out the elections statistics of 2004 or the recent elections, outside HYD city, TRS has a solid vote base of 25 to 35 percent. TRS most probably going with TDP combine will get 90 percent of the seats it will contest, most probably 45.
More realistic estimate would be
TDP+TRS+others in Telangana would be 100+
NTP+PRP 5 to 15
congress 5 to 15 (Could as well go to less than 5).
So TDP has a better chance of crossing 100 in the state. While PRP has to toil out in Andhra and rayalaseema to get over 100.
In andhra it would be a two way between TDP and PRP while in Rseema it would be a three way contest.
All in all TDP has a better chance to cross 100 than any other party.
In loksabha it will be a sweep fro TDP TRS etc.
TRS 7to 10, TDP 15 to 20 CPs 2 ro 4, BJP 2 MIM 0 and congress 2 to 10. Picture is still clear.
IF one analyzes the voting pattern over last 25 years. TDP has a solid base of 30 percent. Congress 30. others 20 and floating 20.
With TRS arrival in Telangana it is TRS 25 percent, TDP 30 and congress 25 percent. CPI CMP and BJP 15 percent and MIM 2-3 percent. With arrival of PRP assuming they would eat into all (more into congress for obvious reasons) it would be TRS 20, TDP 20 to 25 Congress 15 to 20. Other parties have a loyal vote base so only these parties would suffer. PRP expected to get around 20 – 30 percent. But with TDP TRS and CPs having 45+ vote share they could beat congress and PRP with around 15 to 25 each.
Expect in the case of a land slide for Chiru like NTR in 80s(which obviously is not the case) TDP would get around 120 and CPs around 15 . TRS around 40 forming the government.
TRS and TDP with around 30 – 35 MPs amongst them would be forced to support NDA to keep the congress out. Third front would cease to exist the day results come out for loksabha 2009.
December 28th, 2008 at 2:44 AM
KARIM NAGAR this time congress is going to lose the deposit.
Funny some people dont know what happened in recent re polls. Most of people didn’t vote as they expected a victory anyway. But when results were declared, the whole constituency was on tenter hooks. Now they are going to turn out in such huge numbers, now that there would be alliance with some other party(TDP most probably which also has considerable vote share) Congress would be losing its deposit in karim nagar lok sabha elections and also in most other seats across telangana. Even Madhu Yashki Gowd(Staunch supporter of telangana in Congress ,chamcha(close aide) of Rahul gandhi) , Venkataswamy(senior most c congress MP in India) are expecting a miracle to win the elections in 2009.
December 30th, 2008 at 12:03 PM
as we see now it is bjp who will win the race ,in south it started the threshold with karnataka , if this continue bjp will get 24 seats in karnataka,ap and tamilnadu ,doubt of getting aseat,kerala bjp may losse its seats ,i feel in kerala udf may get 12 seats and ldf can gain 8 seats
December 31st, 2008 at 5:24 PM
pbzfvbwowhvzfgjiwell, hi admin adn people nice forum indeed. how’s life? hope it’s introduce branch
December 31st, 2008 at 6:15 PM
Dear Srinivas Rao Sharma Garu, in Coastal Areas where Brahmins, Gavara Vysyas are strong. BJP may do well if they can romp in seety balija and yadavs.
In Telangan, BJP has to get back Vijayashanti and she should be made to contest against KCR.
If BJP Does can do well in Telangana, I would be very Happy.
Visakhaptnam has about 30% Brahmin Population. They should come out and vote decisively in Favour of BJP.
January 2nd, 2009 at 8:40 PM
HI ,
CONGRESS WILL SWEEP IN ANDHRA PRADESH. TDP AND PRP JUST GAIN 4-5 SEATS, THEIR IS NO AGENDA FOR TDP AND PRP EXCEPT BLAMING CONGRESS,VOTER CANT DIGEST THIS STUPID THINGS. WAIT AND SEE.
January 3rd, 2009 at 3:43 AM
Guys!
I was disappointed with election results in recent assembly elections. I expected BJP to lose in Rajasthan after caste fights between Meenas and Gujjars.
The recent elections have shown that BJP has been unable to project a progressive and decisive leadership in Delhi. I hope they make these changes and select clean candidates in 2009. As recent events shown, the PM and Sonia are anti-national traitors who have no agenda other than to create religious hatred in muslim to gain their votebank. Unfortunately, BJP is doing nothing in UP. They have to get 30-35 seats in UP. The Mulyam and CON party alliance in UP might do well. AP is a mess. I hope CON party does not get more than 15 MP seats in AP. If people in AP and TN are smart, they will vote for whatever party at the state but vote for BJP at he center. Are they smart enough to do that?
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:54 AM
From the current situation it appears that 2009 will throw up another hung parliament wherein the UPA may have about 190-210 seats NDA about 180-190 seats and the balance to various regional parties that include the left parties.A repaet of the period 1996 top 1998 is likely. A third front grouping with outside support from the Congress is likely to come to ‘power’.The Congress will hope to expose this configeration to the people and when they feel that the time is ripe dump the Govt. The DMK Congress alliance will fall apart in the process even as the Lankan army pushes the LTTE from an army to a Guerilla outfit. Congress is waiting for Prabhakaran to be killed or captured before they snap ties with the DMK and move towards the Vijayakanth party.
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:59 AM
ore turukoda naveed, dream a lot.
your yesupada samuel rahim will be a loser soon.
chiru is cutting into congress votebank more than TDP
in Telangana, congress will be routed in 2009 despite populist measures.
January 3rd, 2009 at 6:41 PM
Lotus will take Andhra Pradesh by storm
In Andhra Pradesh the most likely outcome for the Lok Sabha elections is Congress: 14, TDP: 10, PRP: 7, BJP: 4,TRS: 3, MIM: 1
In Telengana and Hyderabad TRS is still no 1 closely followed by BJP. In Coastal its triangular Congress, PRP and TDP with BJP as a spoiler
In Rayalsema two way contest between Congress and TDP with again BJP as a spoiler. The important thing is by now BJP has got a votebank of 40-50 thousand in every constituency of Andhra Pradesh and as people vote differently for a Lok Sabha election it is only the BJP which will be the ultimate gainer. If BJP, NTTP and PRP come together they may get majority in the Vidhan Sabha elections as well.
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:03 PM
Usually in Lok sabha elections due to the size of the electorate the seats dont get split according to the share of votes and due to this parties that command 15 to 20% vote can pick up seats only in they are concentrated in a few constituencies. Voters also generally distinguish between also rans and the main contestants. In AP from all accounts it appears that the Congress may sweep the election due to the split of the anti Congress vote. I would not be surprised to see the Congress getting as many as 35 to 36 seats in that state.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:53 PM
Mr. KRS Reddy dont show partiality. tell the fact. dont judge the result based on previous statistics. comparing to 2004 elections , TDP is in a bad and week position now. some strong leaders are already left from the party…ok….tell me the names of 10 strong leaders in TDP now. why Chandrababu is trying to use NTR family. this issue itself
indicates the weekness of TDP.
people r watching every thing.
let us see what wil happen.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:03 PM
If PRP is a week one then why all the major parties r worrying about it.
there r so many parties in AP.
navatelangana, tallitelangana, loksatta, praja party, CPI,CPM..etc.
PRP is latest one.
so….they r agreed as PRP is a 3rd biggest one in AP.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:34 PM
PRP should go with BJP in Andhra Pradesh if it really wants to be ruling Party in Andhra Pradesh. Around 20% vote share of PRP and 10% of BJP, in total 30% could make them the largest alliance in the state. There is a strong anti-incumbancy against congress government at the centre and BJP being its principal opponent may get these votes.
So, Chiru should unhesitantly join with BJP. The whole of Andhra Pradesh will respond positively to such a combination.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Dear Prasad, chiru is another psuedo secular sick politician lobbying for minority votes.
BJP Should go it alone and can take everyone by surprise in Telangana and in certain constituencies in Coastal AP.
BJP Can wrest Hyd from MIM if Modi Ji is used as a Star Campaigner.
in my View BJP Can win 5 seats in Telangana and 2 in Coastal Andhra Pradesh on it’s own.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Hari, congress has recently lost ZPTC By Polls
and in coastal AP They won 2 of the three only where there was NO PRP Candidate.
This tells us congress is losing in AP.
NO Way that INC would win more than 15 seats in AP
in Telangana, they would face a rout.
Already Congress leaders from Telangana are talking of an Alliance with TRS though in all possibility, TRS Would decline the offer or else TRS Would face the same fate as congress.
TDP-Left-TRS-BSP Alliance can prove to be a serious threat as well to congress.
January 7th, 2009 at 7:31 AM
Raj, What u say may be good news but we cannot extrapolate based on local body polls. In Telengana region there appear to be more parties vying for the share of vote that goes with separate Telengana movement. These naturally will split the vote and although congress may loose a share in vote, it may be able to retain sufficient vote to be ahead of other parties. Now what remains to be seen is whether PRP is eating into the Congress vote share or the TDP vote share. The only saving grace is that if there is intense multi cornered contests the BJP may gain a few seats if it can expand its vote share in those seats where it already has about 20% plus vote share.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:49 PM
This time Andhra Pradesh and U.P are two States which can be called as sephologists nightmare. Nobody knows which way the wind is blowing in both the states.
For Andhra Pradesh projecting seats will be a difficult task but I expect the following vote share for different Parties for Lok Sabha Elections:
Congress: 30% (13 seats)
TDP+Left+TRS: 32% (15 seats)
PRP: 18% (8 seats)
BJP: 14% (5 seats)
MIM and Others: 6% (1 seat)
For Assembly Elections the Vote sahre and number of seats could be as following-
Congress: 32% (90-100 seats)
TDP+Left+TRS: 28% (100-110 seats)
PRP: 20% (70-80 seats)
BJP: 10% (15-20 seats)
MIM, BSP, SP, Lok Satta and Others: 10% (19-25 seats)
January 7th, 2009 at 6:20 PM
Siva, Your analysis projecting seats in proportion to votes will work only if votes of the respective parties are concentrated quite in consonance to the seat projection. For eg; BJP with 14% vote can win 5 seats to the Lok sabha only if it can get atleast 35% of the vote in the seats that it hopes to win. If we take the case of Hyderabad Lok sabha seat the BJP for the last few elections come second with about 30% vote but never looked like winning the seat as MIM has always got over 50% of the votes there. Perhaps the BJP’s best shot in AP is the Secunderbad seat wherein in a multi cornered contest the BJP can pick the seat with about 35to 40% vote. Surprisingly the BJP can pick more seats in the assembly with a lesser vote share. As regards UP Mayawati has had her first major embarrasment. It remain to be seen as to whether this is going to benefit the BJP or the SP grouping that includes the Congress. For the BJP this has provided an window of opportunity to stage a comeback. The BJP must find a fresh face to put forward its ideology in a convincing manner as Advani did for the party almost 2 decades back.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:21 PM
Dear Siva, believe, me UP would go The BSP Way unless the voter turnout increases upto 60% atleast. If the voter turnout is going to remain a low 48% as in previous elections, it would be a cakewalk for BSP.
however, if voter turnout comes to b e a surprisngly high 60%, there would be trouble for BSP.
UP has seen no developmental or Populist Schemes even after two years of remaining in power.
as of now my prediction is BSP: 35-40
BJP-RLD: 20-25
SP- INC : 20-25
In Andhra Pradesh , BJP Would be the main gainer in Telangana.
Never underestimate BJP in Telangana. The People of Telangana who by now have realized that only A National Party can Bring in Legislature in Parliament for the creation of a seperate state would certainly vote overwhelmingly in favour of BJP atleast in LokSabha Polls.
Praja Rajyam Party may not be a huge success in Telangana, thatz one of the reasons, PRP Was Vying for TRS which has decided to go with Grand Alliance call of Chandra Babu Naidu. However, This may not have huge success in Telangana for CPM a part of The Grand Alliance constituting of TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI is against the bifurcation of the state and CPM Secretary B.V.Raghavulu has expressed confidence that TRS Would Not raise The Telangana agenda when on a common platform.
Nav Telangana, which is struggling to find itself as a party(the res[ponse to NTP formed by Devendra goud has been poor so far) is parleying with PRP Which is directionless as far as National Politics are concerned.
With YSR Being openly opposed to Bifurcvation of The State, and BJP Taking lead on Telangana Issue, The BJP is surely in the race and would garner about 25% of the popular vote in Telangana which would certainly Yield BJP atleast 5-7 seats in The T-Region. Also in Assembly BJP can win about 30 Seats in The T-Region.
However, BJP would find it hard in Coastal Andhra Except Visakhapatnam(which has a Huge Brahmin Population and where it’s candidate D V Subba Rao, a former Mayor of The City is in The Fray).
In Rajamundry, they have chosen a weak candidate instead of recalling SBPBP Satyanarayana Rao who as an Independent polled 30% of the popular vote in the previous election.
Again in Rayalaseema, BJP doesnt have a Strong Base.
In Telangana, The primary contestant will be BJP and TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI while, Congress and NTP- PRP and others together would be winning a paltry 5 out of 17.
my Ananlysis for Telangana :
BJP — 5-7 Seats
TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI — 5-7 Seats
Congress -MIM — 2-3 seats
(BJP Can Wrest Hyderabad from MIM If Modiji Campaigns there)
NTP-PRP — 2-3 Seats
for Assembly : BJP — 25-30
TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI —- 35-45
INC-MIM — 25-30
NTP-PRP : 20-25
In The Rest of Andhra Pradesh : Congress would sweep in Rayalaseema
PRP and TDP-CPM-CPI (TRS Being a non entity here) would have a tight contest. BSP Would act as a spoiler for congress here.
Despite multi cornered contest, except in Visakhapatnam for the said reasons, BJP Would find hard c to cut ice anywhere else.
In Assembly Elections however, together in rayalaseema and Andhra Regions, BJP Can gain about 7-10 assembly segments.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:24 PM
Hari Garu, MIM has never stood above 50%
Election Commission results indicvate that MIM recieves about 40% of the popular vote(in previous election it recieved 38% and if you include the splinter group of majlis as well, even then MIM Doesnt get above 42%)
therefore, it’s an over statement to say MIM Gets over 50% of the votes.
BJP Can wrest Hyderabad from MIM iThis Time with Modiji Rallying there
January 7th, 2009 at 6:30 PM
Hari, BJP Has it’s vote share concentrated in telangana and particularly in some of the constituencies, it’s vote share is as high as 35 %
In a multi-cornered contest in Telangana, it’s going to be BJP All The Way or atleast would emerge as The Clear Winner, though The Media is underplaying BJP.
BJP Would be The Dark Horase This time in Andhra Pradesh as a whole and in Telangana in Particular.
However, In Andhra and rayalaseema Regions, particularly in the assembly polls (where BJP has practically NO Specific Issue that would Blow Wind The BJP’s way) BJP’s votes may be split by Lok Satta, while they would remain intact in the lok sabha polls.
Anyway, as I said earlier, except in Visakhapatnam, BJP doesnt have a chance besides telangana. However, if Prabhas joins the list of Tollywood Actors campaigning for Parties , BJP Can gain a seat or two more in Lok Sabha.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:36 PM
Hari, it’s most likely that Congress vote share would be eaten up by PRP and BSP.
The Kapu’s in the previous election have voted for Congress and this time, they would rally behind PRP.
The Gouds too are most likely to go with NTP and therefore, PRP-NTP alliance is likely to gain 25 % of popular vote.
Congress may still end up as party with the highest vote share but would certainly would lose a lot of seats.
Senior congress leaders from T-Region are quite amprehensive of facing Public and are speaking in different voices and are aware that Telangana People would Not take the betrayal kindly.
Only in Lower Telangana regions, the T-Sentiment isnt so prominent.
But, BSP Which in the previous elections polled 2.5% of popular vote in AP may once again cut into congress vote bank.
The BSP’s effect was nullified last time due to the grand alliance the congress cobbled prior to 14 th general elections.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:39 PM
The reason why I expect
PRP to get 18% (8 seats) and
BJP to get 14% (5 seats) is
PRP will do extremely well in Coastal Andhra (especially in east and west Godavari and Srikakulam) where as BJP is likely to give its best ever performance in Telengana. So, PRP may get 35% in Coastal areas and BJP may get up to 25% in Telengana region. So, in a way they will have different pockets of influence. But, if BJP and PRP come together then there could be a completely different scenario.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:50 PM
There is NO Scope of BJP-PRP Pre-Poll Alliance with BJP Going with its List.
Further, I want BJP to go alone and Prove themselves as a force in Telangana.
BJP Should not be satisfied merely with karnataka, Telangana would certainly throw it’s weight behind BJP in Lok Sabha Polls and though there might be some cross voting in Assembly elections, still BJP can hold on to atleast 25 assembly segments and can win as many as 7 lok sabha seats in Telnagana
however, BJP’s impact would not be huge anywhere else in AP besides Visakhapatnam.
Kerala is another state, which would prove many of the pundits wrong.
BJP’s Kerala Bandh was a Huge success.
BJP is likely to use Major UnniKrishnan’s Issue in The Kerala Lok Sabha polls.
BJP is likely to win 3 of the 20 Seats from Kerala.
TamilNadu now offers a peculiar scenario.
will Mayawati join ADMK Alliance?
If ADMK-PMK-MDMK-CPM-CPI Form an alliance, they can win atleast 25 seats
BJP And DMDK of Captain vijay Kanth have individually NO Chance to make it to Parliament from TN however, if They snatch an Alliance, in Souther TamilNadu and in some western Regions, They would make huge inroads.
DMK-Congress would suffer heavily in Tamil Nadu in the coming elections.
However, PMK a fence sitter may have a tactical alliance with congress in TamilNadu where, PMK May not contest where congress is and vice versa.
January 8th, 2009 at 9:36 AM
Raj, In TN the ADMK has put itself in a winning position even without the PMK. This time the DMK+Congress may end up with around 10 seats.Post electionsthe DMK Cong. alliance will fall apart with the public reason being the centre’s inaction on the LTTE issue. Mayawathi is not a factor in TN but the VCK has a strong base in the Chidambaram ( not P.Chidambaram) Lok sabha seat. The BJP in TN has a strong base only in Nagercoin Lok sabha constituency wherein it has about 20-25% vote share. To win it still needs some support atleast from Sarath Kumar. Vijaykanth is slowly progressing with building his party and waiting for the turmoil that will engulf the DMK post Karunanidhi..
January 8th, 2009 at 11:53 AM
Dear Hari, good analysis.
But, I would also like to know your feedback about my analysis on AP and UP.
In TN, BJP has good vote share in coimbatore too. And in Pudukottai they have a strong local leader Thirunavakarasar.
In These three constituencies, BJP should atleast have a tactical understanding with ADMK.
Sarath Kumar is a political Novice and is not going to have any impact. unlike Captain, sarath kumar has no party cadre.
I lived in chennai for over a decade and so am pretty much aware of TN Politics.
It seems PMK would remain in UPA and contest in alliance with Congress which is in alliance with DMK.
I know VCK or Dalit Panthers of India is strong in The Chidambaram constituency as well as in some more central Districts of TN.
Captain is more of a Threat to ADMK then to DMK as Vijaykanth is cutting into traditional ADMK vote base.
will BJP and DMDK have a Seat Sharing is the biggest question.
I am for A BJP – Dr. Subramanian Swamy- DMDK Alliance. BJP is strong in largely urban South Chennai, who are fed up with corrupt T R Baalu.
If there is NO BJP-DMDK Alliance, then in TamilNadu, ADMK-MDMK-Left -Front may win about 25 seats while DMK-Congress-PMK may win the other 15.
However, if Captain notches up a seat adjustment with BJP, then ADMK -Left-MDMK may win about 20 seats,, BJP-DMDK-Dr.Subramanian Swamy about 5 seats and DMK-PMK- Congress about 15
However, if Rajnikanth Pledges His support to BJP or if He Rallies behind L.K.Advani, BJP can win about 5 seats on it’s own!!!
January 8th, 2009 at 12:03 PM
Hari, I too feel that post 2009 Election, congress would snap it’s ties with DMK and would support ADMK and PMK would follow the suit.
ADMK Currently has 60 MLAs and is likely to win The By Poll in Madurai. MDMK has 5 MLAs post the death of their madurai MLA.
Congress has 35 MLAs in TN and PMK 18.
since PMK is to stick to congress(Note that PMK’s Anbumani is wedded to Sowmya, TNPCC President’s daughter), the latter too would support ADMK.
together, ADMK, Congress, PMK, MDMK have a strength of 118 in a house of 234. And this exactly the Majic Number required for simple Majority.
Jayalaita would Then install the puppet, O PannerSelvam as CM while congress would have a Lion’s share with Dept. CM post.
Though I am a Strong Anti-Congress Man and personally wish to see BJP, in TN, it’s a distant dream if ever possible. And DMK is the biggest Enemy of Hindu Nationalism and hence, I would like to see The Defeat and Decay of DMK.
After losing The CM’s Chair before the completion of The Term, Karu will die out of shock or would go into a state of coma and there would be an End to Anti-Hindu Dravidian Parties.
BJP needs a Telangana like Sentiment to make a Huge Impact in TN.
January 8th, 2009 at 4:50 PM
Raj, I must respect your analysis on AP as I from TN and base my assessments on AP from inputs I get from various sources. From all these accounts I get the impression that PRP has preovided a vent for the some what marginalised ‘Kapu’ community to get back against the dominant ‘Naidus’ who form the back bone of the TDP. The ‘Telengana factor has further compouded the situation. Most of the assessments that are based on traditional vote bank percentages may not work out. The BJP in AP has had some strong pockets of influence which when translated into a Lok sabha election may help as they are certainly the most likely grouping that can overtake the UPA tally. Having said that thses factors can atmost tilt only about 3% votes and without a powerful local face who can project the ideology effectively in a new way performance on the ground may not happen.
As regards your assessment on TN, Sarath kumar is already eating into the Nadar caste base of the BJP. They do need an understanding with Sarath atleast for Nagercoil. The BJP has lost substantial ground in Coimbatore and barring a decent vote share in Coimbatore West and in TIrupur segments their performance there will be quite poor. Pudukottai is a largely rural area and even if Thirunavakkarasu himself contests it may just do well only in the Aranthagi segment.
January 9th, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Dear Hari, Though I am enrolled as A TN Voter courtesey of our stay in chennai since ’95, I have little knowledge about Other Regions in TN.
However, as I am staying abroad doing my PhD, I cant cast my vote.
That aside, in AP, They have Local Strong Leaders in certain areas and in’98 when BJP Went alone in Polls , had polled 26% of The Popular Vote in Telangana. ofcourse, back then there was NO TRSbut, The T-Sentiment was Strong at that time.
This time around, with Goud proving to be a cropper and TRS which has lost Credibility for they dont have a Strong National Party, atleast in LokSabha Polls BJP would win about 7 seats.
In assembly however, they may end up with just around 25-30 seats.
TN is certainly alarming for BJP.
They should have an Understanding with Sarath Kumar
I personally feel that DMDK may not sail with BJP for Captain likes congress which as of now is ally of DMK.
like AP, TN is unpredictable as PMK Has stood firm with UPA and has vowed to fight the elections alongside congress
January 10th, 2009 at 1:48 PM
An Appeal to my dear Indians
My brothers and sisters in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu must defeat the Congress, DMK and Left to save India. Please don’t vote Congress, DMK and CPI (M) . Let’s vote for BJP, TDP, PRP, Lok Satta, AIADMK or BSP or any other Party but not Congress and DMK as they have ruined India. If Babar and Aurangzeb demolished Temples these psudo-seculars are out to demolish India it self. For them,
MIM, PDP, AUDF and IUML are secular but NDA is communal
Supporting Afzal, Gilani and Madani is secularism
MF Hussain is secular but Taslima Nasreen is communal
Danish cartoonist is communal who offended Islam but Karunanidhi is secular because he offended Hinduism
Making fun at the sacrifice of Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan (comparing with an animal) is secularism, questioning the sacrifice of Hemant Karkare is secularism, questioning the intention of Delhi Police is secularism but questioning the style of ATS is communalism
SIMI is secular for UPA Ministers but BJP Communal
Supporting Bangladeshi Migrants and AUDF are secular but supporting Kashmiri pundits are communal
Pumping bullets at farmers for 2000 acres in Nandigram is secularism but asking for 100 acres in Amarnath is communalism
Religious Conversion is secularism but re-conversion is communalism
People of AP, TN, Kerala and India must punish these Parties.
January 10th, 2009 at 3:47 PM
Vote 4 BJP and Voting for any pseudo secularist will be doomed for The Nation.
January 10th, 2009 at 10:18 PM
Its clear that Kerala is split between Congress UDF and Communists LDF.Whereas Karnataka will extend BJP’s western sweep to South.But Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are any persons nightmare because of too many players in the arena.However our national parties will have to surely rely on state parties here who will hold the sway.
January 11th, 2009 at 4:13 PM
Here is my Analysis after Karnataka BYPoll elections.
Karnataka can be politically divided into 5 Regions
1)North Karnataka(11 Constituencies comprising of Hyderabad and Mumbai Karnataka regions)
2)Coastal karnataka(3 COnstituencies)
3)Central Karnataka (3 constituencies)
4)Old Mysore (11 Constituencies)
From BYpoll its allmost clear that BJP’s presence in old Mysore isnt that high…
But BJP will surely win 3 out of 4 Bangalore city seats in this region and along with that Mysore seat is sure for BJP.It has high chance of winning Kolar seat and Tumkur seat is 50-50. So I will give 5 seats to BJP,4 seats to JDS and 2 seats to COngress in this region…
BJP will get minimum of 2 seats OF3 from central Karnataka
BJP Is allmost sure to win all 3 coastal seats.
BJP Is most likely to win in all 11 const of North, but we shall assume that it wins in 9 seats…..
That gives BJP19-20 Congress and JDS arnd 4-5 seats each…
January 11th, 2009 at 7:38 PM
In tamil nadu, situation is different as AIADMK making alliance with CPM.
So AIADMk+left= 20 seats
DMK+= 17 seats
others 2
BJP-0
January 12th, 2009 at 9:03 AM
This time TN is going o go te Amma way. Although she will not sweep the polls like the DMK+ did last time she and her allies may end up around 30 seats.
January 12th, 2009 at 6:25 PM
Amma should have gone with BJP if issues are to be considered. But, TN Parties change colours more frequently than chamalion. So, BJP has been betrayed again. But, BJP should form alliance with DMDK, Sarath Kumar and Subramanyam Swamy and with support of Rajnikanth this could turn out to be a third pole in TN politics.
January 17th, 2009 at 11:01 AM
umn..
Tirumangalam ByPoll has been won by DMK.
but, let’s hope the same trend doesnt continue in 2009 General Elections
January 18th, 2009 at 1:19 PM
Well, in Telangana this time BJP for sure would Win Secunderabad, Hyderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella, Karimnagar. In Addition BJP with Hard Work can also Win in two out of Nizamabad,Zahirabad and Mehaboobnagar.
In Rayalaseema, BJP has Virtually NO Presence and in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, BJP has to do a Proper Social Engineering in order to take advantage of splitting of votes on caste lines between INC,PRP and TDP.
By Doing so, BJP Can Surprise in Visakhapatnam,Vijayawada and one of the two constituencies in The Godavari Districts. Viz, Rajamundry and Narsapur.
January 20th, 2009 at 6:35 PM
BJP March On………..LK Advani March On……..people of India are with you and we desperately want to see you as our PM to SAVE INDIA. No Kalyan Singh no Vairosingh can do any damage when the people of India are with you.
January 22nd, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Hi, I have found that in Hindupur Lok Sabha Constituency, BJP is slowly gaining Momentum as the constituency is being well nurtured by Their Candidate Naresh, Once A Popular Film Actor in Telugu Film Industry, Particularly in Comedy Flicks
January 22nd, 2009 at 5:25 PM
South India has a total of 130(TN+Pchery: 40, Kerala: 20, Ktaka: 28 and AP: 42) seats. So, according to me the no. of seats BJP likely to get under different circumstances are:
Karnataka- 22 seats (favourable situation) and 18 (adverse situation)
A.P- 8 (favourable situation i.e alliance with NTP (1) and PRP(10)) and 4 (present situation)
T.N- 3 seats (favourable situation i.e alliance with DMDK (4) and Swamy (1) and support from Rajni) and 1 (present situation)
Kerala: 3 (favourable situation) and 1 (present situation)
In total BJP itself will get about 33 seats and the alliance a total of 56 seats if the alliances come through and the situation is favourable. Last time BJP got a total of 18 seats from South India and NDA got 25 seats and in all probability the numebr of seats are likely to double this time. So, good time ahead for BJP and NDA in South India and the routing of UPA and Congress is the writing on the wall. Ofcourse, some positive news for Congress from Kerala.
January 23rd, 2009 at 8:45 AM
Dear Prasad, In Karnataka BJP is in a Honeymoon Period. For Sure BJP Would Win The Maximum.
In AP, There is NO Pre-Poll Alliance, but BJP Can Still win a minimum of 5 seats in Telangana and with efficient Man Management, can win one each from Coastal Andhra, Visakhapatnam and Rayalaseema, Hindupur.
In TamilNadu, Rajni has to openly come out and Urge His Fan Clubs to Mobilize for BJP, only Then can BJP open It’s Account on it’s Own and can win in 3 seats; Kanyakumari, Coimbatore and Nilgiris.
If They form an Alliance with DMDK, then BJP can also win Tanjavur by naking Thirunavakarsar and SivaGanga by Nominating H.Raja as P Chidambaram is a Weak Candidate though He is A Central Minister. He proved that by contesting alone without pairing up with other parties, he is a poor cropper as in ’99 elections when He came third besides Nachiappan of congress and H.Raja of BJP.
This time, though He would be contesting as INC Candidate, Congress has lost all allies except DMK. since, SivaGanga is in South TN where DMK has a very poor record and with Double Anti-Incumbency both at National as well as state level, PC would for sure lose this time around.
January 23rd, 2009 at 8:51 AM
In TN, The Jaya Lalitha this time has successfully formed a Mahajout or Maha Kutami. With MDMK And Left already on her side, she is luring PMK which would for sure pull out of The UPA siting The Lankan unrest once polls are announced. Further, VCK of thirumavalavan who controls considerable dalit votes in the southern regions would ally with Jaya.
This leaves INC With DMK alone and hence they would have to struggle in most of the regions except the Chennai-Arcot Divisions.
Now, Capt. Vijaykanth can not take any chances in Lok Sabha Polls as He has so far Not taken any stand on The Lankan Tamil Issues. As He cannot ally with DMK or ADMK, His Only option is to go with BJP or else He would be dumped in Lok Sabha Polls and that would demoralize His cadres
In Kerala, I am sure BJP Would Win Three Seat; Tiruvannathapuram, Palaghat and Kannur/Thrissur
January 23rd, 2009 at 3:53 PM
hey all,
i dunno how u people analyze kerala..bjp is nowhere in kerala…it is havin some presence in three constituences(namely thiruvananthapuram,palakkad,kasarkode)..bjp may get 2nd place(if u r havin any dbts u can ask any keralite) in Trivandrum only if they field O.Rajagopal(chances r nill 4 the same as it’s almost sure that he will not contest frm trivandrum).They could only manage 3rd last tym,i.e in 2004(when they created high hopes of an upset).Traditionally in kerala it’s a fight btw udf(congress leading) and ldf(cpm leading).bjp got 1,00,000+ votes in 2004 wid Rajagopal..in assembly elections 2006 they could manage only somewhere around 55,000 votes frm tvpm..so frnds 4get tvpm
then it’s palakkad…bjp this tym will b a spectator here.it’s gonna b a strong fight btw congress and cpm..chances of either of them winning is entirely dependent on the candidates chosen…bjp can get max 90,000 votes frm here..
then comes kasarkode..where bjp is having a slight chance of rendering an upset..this is because of it’s closeness to karnataka.But if u r going according to the stats it’s 55%cpm,40%congress,5% bjp.
kannur and thrissur(4get)…kannur is cpm fort and thrissur(dis tym an easy victory 4 congress)..bjp is present here(just 4 namesake)..
There is strong anti-incumbency against the present left front government from all corners.NSS(Nair service society,a strong hindu community) and many christian communities have already stated that they’ll vote against govt(in kerala voting against govt means voting 4 the main opposition party)..so automatically left would be on the loosing side..
in north kerala(9 seats),
left,muslim league is very strong.but due to bad governance they’ll loose some votes dis tym..possibly left-3,udf-5(cong-3,iuml-2),can’t say-1
in mid kerala(5 seats),
traditional congress and kerala congress strong hold…left:0-1;udf:4-5(cong-3-4:ukc(united kerala congress)-1)
in south kerala(6 seats),
both fronts strong here.but slight advantage for congress.this time it will be all congress.cong:4-5,left-1;can’t say-1;
ultimately iuml and ukc are part of upa
so from kerala upa:13-15(cong10-13,iuml-2,ukc-1);left:3-5;undecided-2(most probably in hands of congress due to strong anti-incumbency)
January 23rd, 2009 at 6:21 PM
Jithu, I think you are just analysing on previous results.
BJP has Improved a lot this time around and they have also got over the infighting which saw BJP lose in 2006 elections.
BJP’s Bandh in The Recent Years has been highly Successful in Kerala and there was complete shut down.
BJP Would Certainly Win 2-3 seats This time in Kerala.
Wait and See
January 23rd, 2009 at 6:31 PM
BJP Actually has A Fair Chance in Tiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Kannar, Palakkad, Kasargod.
out of these 5, BJPhas Real Chance atleast in Three seats.
January 23rd, 2009 at 9:42 PM
Dear Raj,
I have been to Kerala a number of times and a few times during elections. The BJP’s champaigning particularly in Trivandrum is always high on decibel and visibility particularly in the main city areas. This however does not translate into votes and the end result is that they generally finish a distant third at best. The BJP there considers the CPM a bigger threat and generally at the grass root go with the Cong.
January 23rd, 2009 at 9:48 PM
If anybody closely watch congress from past 4 yrs,they have not done anything good for the state except false promises.Insted of empowring poor people they are treating people like dogs like when ever dog is hungry they throw some biscuits to put off the hungryness.No efforts have been initiated to improve GDP and to leverage industrilization.What ever development is AP because of chandrabau naidu’s grace.No industry is looking at andhra pradesh.YSR must know that apart from land allotment
industries want to have proper administration and speedy clearances
permissions.State is in doll drum state.God will save the AP.If we take tale agriculture which is his pet promice at the time election,he has utterly failed to deliver agriculture development.What ever he has done to the agriculture is like powder to face to cover marks on the face.New methods to be followed to develop the agriculture apart form irrigation projects.Not only that his MP’s and MLA’s are chakkas wearing bangle’s their mouths are shut.
What i am seen is that his cabinet is worst cabinet in 50 years.No moto to develop the state.They are just doing YSR bajana to retain their MLA positions. I will say that every congress MLA has to commit sucide then only AP can lead to development.
YSR YSR you have utterly failed.You have no right to be a chief minister of AP.If you continue to CM of AP i request you to give me chippa so that
we all beg on the roads.
Plz getdown from the seat.
New equations in AP:
TDP + TRS +CP I+ CPM-170-190
CONGRESS:70-80
PRP+NTP:20-30
BJP 5-10
Loksatta:1
MIM and others 5
LOKSABHA:
TDP+TRS+CPI+CPM-32
Congress-5 to 10
MIM1
BJP 1
January 23rd, 2009 at 10:10 PM
Dear Hari, This time it’s Not going to Happen. Last time BJP Came A Close Second in Tiruvananthapuram. The LF is in acomplete disarray this time with infighting between pinrayi vijayan and vs achuttanandan camps. Also The BJO has got over within it’s internal ramblings in The Kerala State unit.
with Huge Anti-Incumbency and Infighting in LF, This is the best time for BJP to win Seats from Kerala.
I am sure, This time, The LDF Would lose a lot in Kerala, while UDF Would Win a majority, BJP Will Win in 3 Seats of the five I have mentioned.
January 23rd, 2009 at 10:33 PM
Hey Naveen Gadre, it seems you are a kamma and are therefore not giving PRP even a single Lok Sabha Seat.
that aside, the grand alliance has broken even before it is formed.
In AP, none trusts the CPM and CPI except in remote areas and in some quarters of Telangana.
Remember when they contested alone in ’99, the CPI Drew a Blank while CPM won just 2 seats with Gadar’s support.
This time around Gaddar is opposing the communist parties as they have tied up with TDP.
now stop dreaming of The Maha Kutami or grand Alliance of TDP-TRS-CPI(M)-CPI, TRS has Angrily denounced The Alliance and is most likely to join Praja Rajyam and NTP or would go Alone.
BJP has a much higher chance then what you think.
In Telangana, BJP’s T – 100 Campaign is recieving a lot of Attention. The Vijay Sankalp Yatra was A Huge Success with nearly 5 lakhs people Attending The Meet.
The Feb 4th Vijay Sankalp Yatra @ KarimNagar would be A Huge Success again as BJP meet is likely to be Addressed by Sri Narendra Modi.
Narendra Modi Ji’s Campaign in Hyderabad Is Bound to Polarize The Votes and This will Directly Benefit BJP in The Hyderabad as well as Secunderabad and Malkajigiri constituencies. In Addition, The BJP’s Candidate in Chevella is Baddam Balram Reddy who is a strong Regional Figure in Hyderabad Area.
As TRS Chief KCR has decided to shift his constituency from Karimnagar this time, BJP would for sure Win The KarimNagar Constituency as well.
With Hard Work and Mass Mobilization BJP can win two out of three, viz Nizamabad, Mehboobnagar,Warrangal constituencies and can give a tough fight in Nalgonda and the newly constituted Zahirabad Constituency.
BJP is Giving a Lot of Importance to Telangana Leaders like former MP s C Janga Reddy, who is a Strong Votary of Telangana (He was one of The Only Two BJP MPs Elected in ’84 when He Defeated P V Narasimha Rao from now dissolved constituency of Hanamkonda, the other being Dr. A K Patel from Mehsana Gujarat), Sri Bandaru Dattatreya, The Strongest Leader of BJP in Telangana, Former Ministers Ch Vidya Sagar rao and former BJP Legislative Party Leader Sri N Indra Sena Reddy.
The People of Telangana are well aware that Only A National Party can Bring in Legislation to create separate state and hence will vote for BJP. Further, Polarization on Religious Grounds by romping in Sri Narendra Modi Ji will Give Additional Strength and Confidance to BJP in Telangana Region.
In The Rest of Andhra Pradesh , I am Repeatedly saying that with Higher Voter Turn Out BJP Can Win Visakhapatnam Parliamentary Seat, further, They have a Strong Candidate there, Former Mayor Sri
D V Subba Rao and also Win Narsapur as it’s going to be split on caste basis and since The Candidate there is U V Krishnam Raju , The Campaign by Prabhas His Nephew and a popular Telugu Actor will be of great use to BJP there.Further, PRP will field hariram joggiah against whom there is a strong anti-incumbency factor.
Also, The Hindupur seat is another where BJP has high hopes with their candidate and a popular yesteryear actor Naresh Nurturing the constituency well for the past 4 years
My Analysis is BJP in AP Can Win 7 Lok Sabha Seat in Normal Election Mode and 10 Lok Sabha seats in Highly Favourable Mode.
PRP may win about 5 in the coastal Districts
TRS May win about 5-7
Congress , though I hate this christian party, would for sure bag 15 seats even in adverse conditions.
TDP will be The Real Loser.
January 23rd, 2009 at 10:40 PM
Dear Hari, it seems, Puddukottai is No Longer A Lok Sabha Constituency post delimitation
and has been clubbed under Tirunalveli
What are The Chances of BJP in Ramanathapuram, Kanniyakumari, Siva Ganga,Tirunalveli, Coimbatore,Nilgiris. I Think even after getting Rajni’s Full Support and Rajnikanth’s mobilization of His fan clubs to campaign for BJP, BJP Should Focus Only on These Constituencies.
Is PMK about to Join Jaya led Coalation? There are reports that PMK is about to Quit UPA once the dates for Polls are announced and The Election Campaign Takes up momentum.
This cunning PMK seems to make more money in the mean time and transfer a lot into the accounts of that useless cabinet minister anbumani ramadoss
January 24th, 2009 at 10:32 AM
u r analyzing kerala from outside..u r not having a completeand concrete idea on the same…wat i have said is the absolute truth..also bjp in krla is not an united front..alla the major communities have decided tom offer their helping hand to the main opposition party..if u were saying these things about left then i would have agreed(but not for bjp)..it’s too far from reality…man it’s the fact realize………..
January 24th, 2009 at 1:14 PM
well, let’s see
wait and watch
anyway, if sonia maino may conspire with doctors and may ge PM Dr. MMS Medically Murdered to get sympathy votes.
The Congress is Prone to such tactics
January 28th, 2009 at 12:06 AM
1. Advani should fight election from Gujrat and Kerala(Trivandrum). See result of Trivandrum given below. Do not get surprised.
Candidates Valid Votes in PC
Sl no. Name Party Number Percentage
3 P K VASUDEVAN NAIR CPI 286057 37.45
4 V S SIVAKUMAR INC 231454 30.3
1 O RAJAGOPAL BJP 228052 29.86
It is not very difficult for Advani to win election from Trivandrum. That way B.J.P will create base in Kerala. And for future point of it will be good for B.J.P. Even though if Advani loose election, It would not at all embarrassment for Advani. But other side B.J.P can say, I want to give special prefence and create a base in south state. But I think Advani would win from Gujrat.
(a) If Advani fights from Kerala, B.J.P will get more than 20% votes in Kerala.
(b) If Advani fights from Kerala, B.J.P will win atleast one seat.
(c) If Advani fights from Kerala, Big motiavation for B.J.P workers.
(d) If Advani fights from Kerala, B.J.P will ger 5% to 10% assembly seats.
(e)If Advani fights from Kerala, It will create unstablity for UDP and LDP. It may also possible, both may not get majority. It will be big achievement for B.J.P. One thing I want to make it very clear, without the help of Left ,Congress can not form government in centre. In this case congress will support Left in Kerala assembly
January 28th, 2009 at 1:26 AM
i want BJP condition in 2009 General election
January 28th, 2009 at 3:28 PM
Elections are announced, likely to be held between 8th of April and 15th of may.
Really a Long one to go.
January 28th, 2009 at 8:50 PM
My main aim is B.J.P create base on own. How can it be done. B.J.P should involve film actor. B.J.P should give ticket to strong dissident of DMK . If he loose seat then B.J.P should give Rajya Sabha seat. This way B.J.P may create base in Tamilnadu. Why am i talking about base, so that in next election B.J.P can win 5 to 10 seats without alliance. And alliance it may be more than 10.
January 28th, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Well, as I check, Post delimitation, BJP has fair chance of winning in South Chennai. Mylapore, T.Nagar and Velachery have Strong Brahmin Population as well as Trader Community.
Virugambakam may vote for DMDK , while Saidapet division would vote for DMK and Shollinganallur may vote for AIADMK
Rajnikanth should Actively Campaign for L K Advani’s Prime Ministership starting from Feb-March.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:41 PM
Hi,
1. B.J.P may announce Rajnikant as Deputy priminister.In this case B.J.P would get 10 seats from Tamilnadu.
2. B.J.P should tamil movement in TN because of Srilanka issue.
3. Try to have alliance with PMK,MDMK.
4. Call lot film actor.
5. Use top dissident leader. if they loose give them Rajya Sabha ticket
6. Do Vikas Rath Yatra.
January 29th, 2009 at 2:43 PM
How many Dpt PM do you want BJP to announce
Lol
anyway, your argument is cute
January 29th, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Hi,
I am trying to explore all possibilities. I am trying to search speedy process. If i talk Advani, Sushma, Naidu and deputy P.M. If B.J.P may get good no. of seats, then it is o.k. otherwise it useless. There may be negative effect, Because people can Advani is going to fight from two place, it means even though Advani is not sure about own win,How can party win election.
Second thing small parties( TDP,TRS,PRP,TMC,DMK,AIADMK) are blackmailing to B.J.P. I do not like this. B.J.P has to gain immediately respectable position in TN,WB,AP,Kerala. What is it
TN — 10
WB– 10
Ap — 12
Kerala –5
Then these parties will Advani’s feet because they can not form gov in own state without the help of B.J.P. That time B.J.P would not be communal at all to these parties. Like, Kalyan Singh is not communal for Amar Singh before Kalyan Singh was communal.
Ritesh Gupta
January 29th, 2009 at 3:55 PM
In Kerala BJP Has a fair chance of winning 2 seats this time. 5 is Day Dreaming.
TamilNadu if Rajnikanth puts his weight behind Advani, then BJP can surprise political pundits and win as many as 5-6 seats on its own.
In AP, yes, in the Telangana Region in Particular BJP has high stakes
WB is a real hard state for BJP unless they are successful in Polarizing the votes and The High Upper Caste Population teaches a fitting lesson to commies and inc-tmc combine
January 29th, 2009 at 10:59 PM
In TN
PMK + BJP + MDMK + DMDK + RajniKant = 10 (BJP) + 10 (others)
This combination is possible or not, if possible then they may get 20 seats or not.
Give one seat of RajyaShabha to each (PMK + BJP + MDMK + DMDK) as a gift or give 10000 crore rupees project in their constituency.
January 30th, 2009 at 3:00 AM
Well, PMK Would sail with Jaya and Leftists.
MDMK is already in Jaya’s alliance who has allied with the Left.
DMDK And PMK Would Never come together as PMK Hates Captain VijayKanth.
VijayKanth may not team up with Rajni as it would lead to Ego clashes between Them.
This Leaves, BJP to go Alone and Take Rajni’s Support and if Rajni Puts His Weight behind LK Advani Ji, then BJP is certain to win some seats particularly in The South and West.
Even With Rajni’s Support, BJP Should Concentrate Mainly on The Following Constituencies in TN:
South Chennai, Coimbatore, Kanniyakumari(Most Easy Targets if proper ground work is done) and Sivaganga, Tirunalveli, Tanjavur, Ramanathapuram and should Leave Madurai to Dr. Subramanian Swamy
January 30th, 2009 at 10:21 PM
Will Rajnikant support BJP? if yes why?
January 31st, 2009 at 12:09 AM
well Rajnikanth is an Admirer of L K Advani, further, He has Strong Right Wing views.
Hence BJP Should convince Rajni to campaign for BJP in TN as They are likely to go alone in TN.
Jayalalihaa is sure to form a Grand Alliance that Involves Along with her AIADMK, The CPI(M),CPI,MDMK her Present Allies and would successfully romp in PMK as well
February 1st, 2009 at 12:04 AM
Rajnikant can go with DMK or AIADMK.
February 1st, 2009 at 3:28 AM
NOPE.
He Would NOT
February 1st, 2009 at 2:26 PM
Hi All,
Andhra Pradesh Elections Results 2009:
Telangana Area
Maha Kutami – == 40
TDP+ CPM + CPI+ TRS
Congress == 35
PRP + NTP + LOK SATTA == 40
Andhra Area
PRP + NTP + LOK SATTA == 50
Maha Kutami == 35
Congress == 35
Rayalaseema Area
PRP + NTP + LOK SATTA == 14
Maha Kutami == 15
Congress == 30
—————————————————————————
Total
PRP + NTP + LOK SATTA == 114
Maha Kutami == 90
Congress == 100
No Clear Winner — PRP can form government with outside support from
February 1st, 2009 at 3:36 PM
Hi,
PRP’s job is to cut Congress and (TDP+TRS) votes and provide help to BJP. This the reason it has been formed. PRP’s performance will be worst, it will fourth no. party after election.
Chiranjivi is not NTR. When NTR came into power there was no opposition. Pelople was not at all happy with congress. This time situation is different.
February 1st, 2009 at 5:18 PM
Citizen of AP, you are probably A PRP supporter belonging to Minority community
anyway, Even adverse critics of TDP feel, Grand Alliance would emerge as front runner
you have completely Neglected BJP in Telangana. I would like to bring to Everybody’s Notice that in ’98 elections, when BJP contested alone, in Telangana Region BJP Won 26% of The Popular Vote.
And Lok Satta has NOPT Entered into an alliance with PRP.
NTP has failed to make any impact
PRP is NOT popular in Telangana
February 1st, 2009 at 5:19 PM
forgot to Add, even congress leaders fear, that congress would face a rout in Telangana
February 1st, 2009 at 5:22 PM
Well Said R, But, I wonder if PRP can cut into the votes of TDP.
Kapus have been traditionally voting for congress and now they would vote for PRP.
In Telangana kapus are very less in number
Devender goud’s loss has NOT Made any Impact as percieved earlier.
bjp Should Get Tribals on it’s side from congress on Telangana sentiment
February 1st, 2009 at 9:37 PM
Can BJP cut TRS and TDP votes in Telagana.
February 1st, 2009 at 11:48 PM
Well, BJP can certainly Repeat it’s ’98 Performance in The Telangana Region when BJP Polled 16%of The Popular Vote.
Now, into whose Vote Bank would They make a dent into cant be answered.
but for sure, in Telangana Region of AP: INC-MIM would be a Real Loser while PRP-NTP would find it Hard to attain Success.
February 3rd, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Great News from Hyderabad!!!
The Muslim Votes in Hyderabad would be split this time around between The Communal and Anti-National Terrorising majlis and an Independent candidate , Editor of Shiasat on whom majlis led an attack recently. This Independent candidate has got the support of the Grand Alliance formed by TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI. Hence, if, BJP Polarizes The Hindu Votes in The Old City of Hyderabad, BJP Can Wrest This City from MIM(which has been winning through congress’s support since ’91). And for that to Happen, Modi Ji should address atleast one meeting in Hyderabad.
February 3rd, 2009 at 3:04 PM
Hi,
Congress is also fighting to get Hindu votes. Congress is making fool
to Hindu by cutting Hindu votes.
February 3rd, 2009 at 5:50 PM
Dear Ritesh, congress is losing it’s sway over Hindu Votes in Urban Centres.
Like the one in Hyderabad, which is Highly Polarized, since ’91 Elections BJP has reduced the margin of defeat despite having a congress candidate in Hyderabad(except for ’96 when Sri P V Narasimha Rao was The PM)
February 3rd, 2009 at 6:41 PM
Encouraging News from TamilNadu for BJP Well Wishers.
Captain Vijaykanth has shown Inclination to have Alliance with BJP for 2009 Lok Sabha Polls
Rajnikanth though would Not contest Elections, would throw His lot with BJP and Actively Campaign so and will be seen along with Advani Ji
in 2004, He said His Vote is for BJP but didnt throw His lot with NDA as BJP Allied with Jaya, one time Rajni’s Bete Noire
Cho Ramaswamy, who until recently threw His weight behind JJ would voice for BJP Allies this time around and this will gravitate All Brahmin and other Upper Caste votes to BJP from ADMK fold. Cho is A Strong Anti-Communist(In 2001, though Jaya had allied with commies, still Cho threw His lot behind JJ as BJP was in Alliance with DMK)
Krishnamachari Srikanth too is likely to join The Campaigning for BJP, He may even contest from South Chennai, A Constituency where Brahmins Votes are quite Important and can be decisive, particularly post Delimitation. Three of the six Segments, Viz: Mylapore, T Nagar and Velachery have Huge or considerable Brahmin Population)
Dr. Subramanian Swamy is Likely to be a Part of This Alliance.
BJP(Backed by Rajani)+Captain VijayKanth+Cho Ramaswamy+Dr.Subramanian Swamy will be A Formidable Alliance
Also, Fielding Krishnamachary Srikanth would be of Great Advantage to BJP as He is A Great Orator and He can Romp in His good friend Kapil Dev and other Cricketers like Veerendra Sehwag(who is a BJP Supporter), Anil Kumble( A Pro BJP Man),Javagal Srinath( A Good Friend of Srikanth).
I also feel, BJP and Dr. Subramanian Swamy should romp in Aravinda Swamy(of Bombay Fame) and Viswanathan Anand to Campaign for BJP Alliance
February 3rd, 2009 at 9:45 PM
Hi Raj,
If it happens, it will be major advantage to BJP.
Personally i feel TDP, AIADMK and TMC have done great mistake. BJP is weak in AP,WB and TN because of alliances. I feel, BJP should not have alliance with these people. BJP should have alliance with small party(vijaykant) and personality(srikant and rajnikant). Fighting is three side, BJP will get some seats. If BJP is having any alliance it would not get more than 15, without alliance BJP will get 10 seats. But no major improvement. After election if BJP needs any help to form the gov, then parties will support BJP( they are not having any
option). The major advantage will be, BJP would able to expand own base in these states. And i am very sure these parties can not form state gov without the help of BJP also. In future these parties can not blackmail to BJP. And BJP share will be 50% in state election. BJP is not worry about state election. But i would be problem for these parties. TDP, AIADMK and TMC should not have allowed BJP to expand own base in state, it was possible through having alliance with BJP. TDP, AIADMK and TMC are immatured parties. Because muslim votes will be divided among alliance 1 and alliance 2, BJP will get advantage of it.
You are saying BJP may get 25-35 in AP assembly. If BJP was able to get 25-35, lot of people would like to join BJP(because of good future) If it becomes true,It will be suicidal for TDP. In next election BJP may demand 50% seats from TDP. After sometime BJP may be main opposition paty.
February 3rd, 2009 at 10:01 PM
If u take example of Punjab, BJP is not able to expand base in punjab( Akalidal is realiable partner of BJP). Through alliance Akali Dal is able stop expansion of BJP.
February 3rd, 2009 at 10:07 PM
How many seats in UP BJP can not win at any cost. For example ( Amethi,Akbarpur ..etc.)
February 4th, 2009 at 12:28 AM
I differ with You Ritesh
BJP lost it’s cadre in AP and WB because of Alliances.
It’s the Best time for BJP to Build a Base in these States. BJP should NOT be dependant on others.
Trinamool, commies and INC would split the muslim vote.
BSP contesting independently will make a dent into dalit votes
BJP can certainly Drive Hindu Votes to Their Advantag. Many strong Anti Communists didnt Vote for NDA last time because of the presence of mamata, a highly immature politician.
none have hopes on congress
further, INC is suffering anti-incumbency at national level and in bengal they are very weak
February 4th, 2009 at 12:34 AM
Punjab is a different state as compared to WB or AP.
February 4th, 2009 at 12:47 AM
About AP, I have already Discussed Earlier and will wait till I recieve info about Advani Ji’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra in Bezawada(Vijayawada) on 4th Feb 2009(The one at Hyderabad in Novemebr was A Huge Success foir about 5 lakh people attended without mobilization across the state!!!) yet, people and biased political analysts are turning a blind eye since They focussed primarily on Lok Sabha Ele ctions and Not on state elections.
However, on 4th feb 2009, Advani Ji is likely to unveil BJP’s Agenda for Assembly as well for it is by now Clear that BJP will go alone in AP(except in Telangana where NTP of devender goud neglected by both TRS and PRP may forge an Alliance with BJP citing BJP’s Commitment for Telangana, this would be Symbiotic and Would Help BJP too and NTP-BJP Alliance can sweep in The Telangana Region by Winning 10-12 Lok Sabha Seats as Gadar, The Famous Balle Singer and Telangana Activist is cross with The Grand Alliance, doesnt trust chiru, vowed to decimate congress and Most Important, Voiced Support for BJP through His Praises for BJP’s Commitment and also helped BJP gain Confidance of The Masses by Showing up at Advani Ji’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra in November Last Year)
February 4th, 2009 at 12:57 AM
In TamilNadu, this time BJP should Field Sri Krishnamachary Srikanth from Brahmin Dominated Urban Constituency of South Chennai.
Cho Ramaswamy and Rajnikanth would throw Their Weight Behind BJP once The Polls are announced. It has already become clear that Cho is A BJP Man and as His Tuglak is a Popular Magazine amongst Tamils, This would Help BJP in TamilNadu.
Remember, Cho had His Role to play in Creating A Pro-Vajpayee wave in TN in ’98.
February 4th, 2009 at 6:31 AM
Hi Raj,
It is good news( Which you wrote). I also believe it is best time of BJP in
Kerala,WB,TN and AP.
“Many strong Anti Communists didnt Vote for NDA last time because of the presence of mamata, a highly immature politician.
none have hopes on congress
further, INC is suffering anti-incumbency at national level and in bengal they are very weak
“
February 4th, 2009 at 7:54 AM
Dear Ritesh, my Next Post would be Only after Today’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra Meeting at Bezawada.
This is A Test for BJP in AP
February 4th, 2009 at 10:02 AM
Hi Raj,
==============
Would Help BJP too and NTP-BJP Alliance can sweep in The Telangana Region by Winning 10-12 Lok Sabha
=============
BJP should have 100% effort to bring NTP in BJP camp but BJP should not compromise with no. of seats(vote bank and own base). That i want,BJP can give Rajya Sabha Seat to Goud. I have told many times BJP may get 10(AP),10(WB),10(TN),5(Kerala). It is not possible through direct politics, BJP will have to use indirect politics. What is indirect politics( use big money, hire regional film actors, give them some monetory advantage, take help of personality Rajnikant, talk about statbility, AIADMK is not part of NDA and UPA alliances, left is not part of AIADMK is not part of NDA and UPA alliances, bring top dissident leaders in BJP and give them benefit, top dissident leaders are knowing very well BJP is future, if possible announce Rajinkant as Deputy priminster so that it would be possible for BJP get 10 seats in Tamilnadu, In these states BJP is future, 20 years before no was knowing BJP but now everyone is knowing BJP, BJP is also getting good no. of votes but it can not be converted in seats).
One day you will see in WB and Kerala, Congress and Left will fight election together or will sit together.
February 4th, 2009 at 11:50 AM
1. Venkiah Naidu should fight election from AP.
2. Advaniji should fight election from Kerala.
3. Sushma Swaraj should fight election from WB( sixth no. seat descending order winining possibility or midnapore seat) Winning of election is not important
4. Rajnikant should fight election from TN if possible as deputy PM of
India.
All this activity will give good media coverage to BJP in four state and moral boost to BJP workers. After that it will be possible for BJP to develope own very strong base in four state.
Will it be good for BJP or not?
February 4th, 2009 at 11:35 PM
Rajnath Singh Ji should Not stand from TN. TN has Never in it’s History has Welcomed Leaders popular in other states to Win elections from there.
Kerala too has NO Such History. And therefore, I wont second Your view of Advani Ji to contest from Trivandrum.
If Advani Ji has to contest from two seats, then the second one should be from UP or a Seat BJP Has Never Won from Rajasthan.
Sushama Swaraj wont be able to impress people in Bengal. Instead, she should be fieldded against Congress Bastion either in Maharasthra/Karnataka as she is fluent in these two languages.
Rajnikanth Wont fight elections but, is most likely to actively Voice His Support to BJP and would be probably share dias with Advani Ji in TN.
Venkaiah Naidu should however contest from Vijayawada/Nellore
unfortunately, the biased telugu media has NOT aired Advaniji’s meeting.
so have to wait, till tomorrow probably to comment on it.
In Between, BJP Should also utilize the services of BS Yeddiyurappa , The CM of Karnataka while campaigning in Rayalaseema
February 5th, 2009 at 2:24 AM
What A Shame!!!
with the exception of Eenaadu Newspaper, NO Other Daily has Published about Vijay Sankalp Yatra Meeting of BJP in Vijayawada.
Only Eenaadu without any bias has carried it as The Lead storyunfortunately I cant Read Telugu
February 5th, 2009 at 5:25 AM
Hi,
How many seats may BJP get from Delhi.
February 5th, 2009 at 6:41 AM
Well, we cant draw conclusions to Delhi on the basis of recent assembly elections
However, to Win Maximum Seats from Delhi, BJP Should Field Strong Candidates.
L K Advani from New Delhi, Sushma Swaraj from South Delhi
February 5th, 2009 at 8:18 AM
Same i am thinking, but not Advani, Sushma and Arun Jetli. Arun Jetli should take care of Delhi,Haryana and Punjab. He should take care of complete election strategy. Advani will fight from Gujrat.
Madan lal Kuhrana, Advani may be. Advani will have to fight from Gujrat aslo, after winning both seat he may leave Gujrat seat. If election take place in Gujrat again, BJP may retain seat again.
BJP should try to win all seat Delhi, It is possible, But in WB,AP,TN and keral we can say. BJP should have 400% effort in Delhi. If possible to field Vijay kumar Malhotra and Vijay Goel. Arun should not visit any other part of India.
February 5th, 2009 at 9:27 AM
BJP is having national council meeting 6-7 feb in Nagpur. BJP should have all meeting in AP,WB,Kerala and Tamilnadu so that wave for BJP can be created in these states. If i have talk with people, they say BJP is not having presence.
February 5th, 2009 at 5:08 PM
Dear Ritesh, unfortunately, it seems BJP is Struggling in Non Telangana Region of AP.
They dont have a Strong Leader there.
Right now, in Non Telangana Region, BJP finds it Hard to Win any seat apart from Visakhapatnam and Narsapur and that too Only Because of The Popularity of Their Candidates.
The Situation in ’98 was that BJP Had A Star Attractor Sri Atal Bihari Vaajpayee. In ’98 He was Highly Popular in Andhra Pradesh and in TamilNadu. But, BJP Relied more on Allies post ’99 in These two states and started playing second fiddle to them and lost cadre.
In Telangana, with the T Sentiment and Likely Polarization of Urban Areas and Locally Strong Leaders, BJP has a Fair chance in about 5 to7 constituencies. But, in The Rest of AP, BJP is weak and have NO Programmes to Appeal for AP Voters. Advaniji has Not been able to explain Why in The Assembly Elections BJP Should be Voted.
Post 2006 organizational elections, BJP Should have created two units for AP, one for Telangana wih Sri Bandaru Dattareyya(Instead of making The President of Whole of Andhra Pradesh) and K.Balakondiah, former MP from Nellore and A Dalit Leader for The Rest of AP. He would have certainly Built A Base for BJP in South Coastal Districts and adjoining Rayalaseema Regions. Also Former Tirupaty MP and another Dalit leader, N.Venkataswamy should have been made state wise president of BJP with incharge of Rayalaseema.
These two leaders, who are playing an active role in BJP would have really built cadre(The Nellore MP was Police Officer while Tirupaty MP was IAS Officer, hence they had organizational skills)
but, as they are without any prominent role, they are just relegated to MP/MLA seats in the assembly.
BJP should Work on Building A Base in some parts of AP.
February 5th, 2009 at 6:30 PM
It seems Venkaih Naidu and Sushma Swaraj have decided Not to contest Polls and instead be Prabharis.
February 5th, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Hi,
Both should fight elections. It is BJP’s mistake. But BJP should learn how to make arrangement for TOP leaders.
February 6th, 2009 at 1:09 AM
well, something must have been there on their plans.
if All the leaders fight elections, Who will be Prabharis?
February 6th, 2009 at 9:58 AM
Hi,
Prabhari has to take care of both. Sushma should spend two days in own consituency(If fighiting from Delhi not from WB) and spend 5 days all over India.If she has done enough work in own consituency(If she is knowing in advance) up to 5 years. Then two days is more than sufficient. If Sushma can not take care of own constituecy then her secrectary(BJP should provide because of top leader) should take care.
If Sushma is fighing from WB, she should choose weak seat( to loose the election not to win). And no need to spend one day in WB constituency. What is my aim. BJP will get lot of media attraction in WB and moral boost for paty workers in WB,because of Sushma Swaraj that will benefit to other BJP candidates in WB.
February 7th, 2009 at 5:29 AM
I have seen A Video of Kota Srinivas Rao speaking at Vijayawada Vijay Sankalp Yatra. Wow!!! He is A Powerful Orator and The Audience Response was Huge whenever He Spoke. He should be given The Vijayawada Lok Sabha Seat.
February 7th, 2009 at 10:18 AM
RAJ,
You do not have place in human soceity. Why? You need urgent medical attention beacuse you see to talk to yourself in different names RAJ, R, Ritesh Kumar…..
Anyway, keeping aside whether i am a minority or NOT, majority will be for PRP. If you talk about caste, Reddy and Kamma are minorities. Because of historical money power or otherwise dominance they are able to suppress the majority section of population. Not this Time. Time for Change is here and that is Chiranjeevi.
I am not saying that chiranjeevi is not self-fish. But his self fishness is for the good of the Society. Mitra his friend is a major plus for Praja rajyam. I am sure if not sweeping election it is sure PRP will get majority and will form government.
Vote for PRP if you want to see change – your mind cleaned from Varga poru and a new RAJ will be in AP 2009.
Good Luck…Minor
Citizen of Andhra Pradesh
February 7th, 2009 at 11:21 AM
Hi Citizen of Andhra Pradesh,
If You think PRP is ocming into power. Give logic behind it. If you see RAJ’s mail, He is giving basic logic behind it. Abruptly he not saying anything. He is not saying anything blindly. If you see his mail carefully, you will find, he has not told that BJP would outperform in WB,Kerala,TN and AP. Really BJP is very powerfull except these four states(WB,Kerala,TN and AP). I know because i belong to UP.
February 7th, 2009 at 1:55 PM
Ritesh,
Why Congress won Delhi continuously? Why BJP Failed there?
Yes, in 1998 BJP has big % of votes in AP…what happened in 2004?…from over 20 to just 6 or 8%…This time it will be much lower…
7 states out of 28 is not a good number for BJP to say it is powerful…It should shed the inage of of being communal… I too wish BJP come to power in central in 2009 and root out terrorism in country and reverse the stupid corruption of congress. But in Andhra Pradesh, BJP will only get 2 or 3 % vote .. maybe 2 to 4 assembly seats and 1 lok sabha seat…
i may be wrong but that is what BJP has …
When NTR started TDP, no one thought he will come to power… now Chiranjeevi’s PRP is in the same wave …. There is a silent revolution…Every policy he is talking touches common man… Rooting out corruption, Social Justice – you might not agree on this…Power not with one but with people… yes good talking points but this is what will bring PRP to power.. Chiranjeevi knows to connet with people.. so is the reason Advani gave a Call to him immediately when PRP started..
I dont have to talk More… you and RAJ will see in April / May 2009 Chirnajeevi as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh.
Kepp on watching…
Good LucK to BJP at National Level!!
Citizen of Andhra Pradesh
February 7th, 2009 at 9:55 PM
you are a castist lowlife citizen of AP.
anyway, PRP proved to be corrupt even before it tested political waters.
anyway, I am different from Ritesh.
And I need Not excplain anything for you.
PRP is the only party in AP which has NO Ideology except for grabing power based on caste.
like mulayam in UP who is lobbying with yadav-muslim combination.
PRP is vying kaapu-muslim population
February 7th, 2009 at 9:58 PM
chiru has NO Capabilities.
his only intention is to earn money for himself and his brother in law allu
look at pavan kalyan’s language and behaviour.
Already there is infighting in prajarajyam.
what can we anticipate inreturn from a party floated by defectors.
February 7th, 2009 at 10:04 PM
stop comparing ntr and chiranjeevi
at that there was NO Big name
in AP, BJP polled less because of alliance with TDP
in delhi, it was a fluke for congress.
In Rajasthan BJP polled higher votes and congress DIDNT Get A Majority
I dont know what you mean by communal.,
do you think secularism is Humilaiting Hindus.
if that is so, you dont worth being Human being.
if Demanding execution of terrorists is communal, then we want to be communal.
if providing muslims and christians more benefits is secular, we dont want sickularism.
in how many states is left ruling?
in how many states is mayawati’s BSP in poweer.
in how many states is christian congress ruling.
hey converted christian and worshuipper o sonia maino and yesupada samuel reddy,your chuiru is already licking the boots of Terrorists.
chiru is a slave of evangelicals.
; why doid he keep that foreign slut teresa’s picture,because he recieved crores of ruppes frm k a paul
February 7th, 2009 at 10:10 PM
none trusts chiru in Telangana
chiru has proved to be a pro-terrorist.
chiru has NO Agenda on how to tackle Terrorism
chiru supports ISI agents and praised owasi of mim.
chiru has NOT opposed the Sethu sundaram canel project.
till date, chiru has Not given acknowledged a single Hindu Saint like Swmai Vivekananda.
chiru will bring a change and the change is “operation Destroy AP by Evangelising and Increasing Terrorism on Hindus”
till date, chiru Never spoke against Islamic Terrorism and Gokul Chat issue.
chiru has till date NOT Opposed Evangelization of AP.
he is a shame on All Human beings.
February 7th, 2009 at 10:12 PM
you just dream citizen of AP.
if there is any silent revolution it will be only for Lok Satta and not prp
as they say in English, empty vessels make hell of noise, prp is making huge cry
February 7th, 2009 at 11:19 PM
Recent policies of PRP where is BJP here
Removal of Belt Shops
Phased prohibition on Alcohol
Special Courts for women
February 8th, 2009 at 5:14 AM
oh, yeah the one who danced and got drunk while doing roadshows will remove Belt shops and bring in phased prohibition of alcohol
chiru cant survive without drinking a full bottle per day.
someone No less than A Minister in AP Cabinet has said this.
chiru so far has not contested mareppa’s statement.
you think, people will believe in what a drunkard states.
you must be a die hard fan of chiru
He can just eat into the votes of congress and TDP in the central and North Coastal Regions and bring in Instability.
post elections, he will ally with christian rajasekhar reddy and will lick the white s**t’s feet
February 8th, 2009 at 5:32 AM
In Telangana the fight will be between Grand Alliance(60-65 assembly segments and 10 Lok Sabha Seats), BJP(21-27 Assembly segmenta, largely The Uran Seats in and around Hyderabad region and 5 Lok Sabha Seats, 7 in Most favourable condition)
congress in assembly can make about 15-28 in alliance with mim and win about 2 seats(khammam,renuka choudary and peddapally,G Venkataswamy)
NTP-PRP will come a cropper here.
rayalaseema : Congress Sweep. YSR is a popular leader in the rayalaseema region. balakrishna’s routine filmy dialogues and gestures are irritating the people out there.
Rayalaseema has 8 Lok Sabha Seats
congress :5(cuddapah, rajampeta,chittoor, anantapur, nandyala)
TDP — Hindupur(if ballaiah contest either assembly segment / lok sabha polls from here)
PRP(Karnool, bhooma shobha nagi reddy and Tirupati)
South Coastal Andhra has only 3 seats (Nellore,most likely congress as post delimitation this seat has become unreserved and former CM, N Janardhan reddy who has a reputation of never losing an election is likely to contest from here, if he does, he would certainly win this seat;ongole, has now become reserved seat post delimitatin and uniion minister and sitting MP from nellore, panabaka Lakshmi is likely to be given ticket for this seat; Bapatla, union minister and NTR’S Daughter Purandareshwari is likely to retain this seat for congress, she has expressed her desire to contest from here as ongole is now a reserved constituency)
Now, comes the most important and Interesting Region.
It’s only in This region that PRP is likely to sweep.
congress would suffer huge reversals in this region and TDP will find it hard to regain the dominance.
Two Political Parties will Damage congress here :
1. Obviously PRP, as this region is dominated by kaapus, who have been since ’89 exclusively voting for congress since, kaapus hate NTR and TDP for ntr murdered a kaapu leader, vangaveeti mohan ranga
2. BSP, yes, this region has Huge Dalit Population and BSP can cut into the dalit votes of congress.
This Region(North and Central Coastal Andhra) has 14 seats, mostly in Krishna-Godavari Belt. Here, PRP can Win 12 Seats and one for TDP(Srikakulam).
BJP has Chance in Visakhapatnam
February 8th, 2009 at 5:37 AM
BJP’s stand on National Issues is Clear.
BJP is The Only Non Pseudo Secular Party
BJP is The Only Party that Unites All Indians and Doesnt divide Hindus on caste and doest eye for minority votebank.
remember, chiru may announce 1000 sops for converted and/crypto christians, but they will Only vote for Yesupaada Samuel Robert Reddy and Italaian White Trash KKK bi*** antonio maino and her wimpy Impastor son born to her italian boy friend, ottawio quattrochhi, and that wimp’s name is raul vinci
if BJP is NOT Voted to Power, Bharat Maata would be Disintegrated by 2020. Next 5 years if upa/coalation supported by upa-left comes back to power by hook or crook.
February 8th, 2009 at 5:38 AM
chiru is A Drunkard.
Disprove it.
February 8th, 2009 at 5:42 AM
chiru comes from an immoral background and his whole family is immoral.
look at himself, he had affairs with raadhika, vijayashanti, raadha, ooha, madhavi and sudha(his permanent concubine)
paan kalyan is proud of his sexual immoraity and arrogantly states he is right.
pawan kalyan is a loafer and didnteven clear high school.
he says education is NOT Important.
what a shame.
is this the change the kaapus want?
is this the change the kaapu rajyam will bring.
they may same nice words to decieve, but if prp comes to power, they will sell AP.
chiru and allu are greedy lowlives.
February 8th, 2009 at 5:44 AM
but, sadly in about 120 assembly segments in Coastal districts, prp would win about 75-80 seats
February 8th, 2009 at 5:44 AM
the caste dominance is Out in Open in PRP
February 8th, 2009 at 5:45 AM
PRP in AP is like PMK in TN.
February 8th, 2009 at 5:46 AM
could ramadosss become CM?
The same here
February 8th, 2009 at 9:20 AM
Good analysis.Keep it up.
February 8th, 2009 at 10:08 AM
Thank You Dear.
February 8th, 2009 at 10:10 AM
By the by, NTP is planning to contest Elections on PRP’s Symbol if PRP succeeds in getting A Common Electoral Symbol.
February 8th, 2009 at 7:26 PM
Hi Raj,
I have to ask one thing, BJP is future in AP. What is the problem to Goud to have alliance with BJP.
February 8th, 2009 at 11:03 PM
Well, I will speak with Reference to Telangana.
The Reason why Goud resigned from TDP at A Time TDP officially stated They are actively considering on Telangana Issue was He wanted to become CM of Telangana while TDP as considering HariKrishna(NTR’s Son) for The Role. And so, Goud came out of TDP. Initially, there was Huge Speculation that TRS would be Decimated and Goud would become the face of ATelangana. However, NTP could Not gain any momentum and has NO Cadre.
Chiru is Not effective in Telangana(kaapu community,i.e., chiranjeevi’s caste is negligible in this region). Though Goud is A Backward Caste Leader, he is not inspiring The Masses.
And Thereby, They came to an understanding that to gain credibility on Telangana Issue, PRP would Project Goud while Goud would gain the Cadre of PRP(chiru’s fans)
BJP’s Bandaru Dattatreyya is A CM Candidate post formation of Telangana. Therefore, Goud has NO Future if He joins hands with BJP in Teangana.
February 9th, 2009 at 12:22 AM
Great Video for which can WELCOMECHANGE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-yfayrY9OU
February 9th, 2009 at 4:37 AM
Sri Citizen of AP Gaaru, I would Not have targetted chiru had there been NO Simultaneous Polls for assembly and lok sabha elections.
It’s a Fact that Chiru is unable to explain with whom he would go and whom he would support at centre
He has NO Agenda on National Issues.
February 9th, 2009 at 6:50 AM
I think, I was too Harsh on Sri Citizen of AP. I must Apologize for Hurting His views.
But,chiru has joined the long list of pseudo secular sickularists and thhis is annoying me
February 9th, 2009 at 12:06 PM
Raj,
There is nothing like final in life till death. But as long as we exist we need to be polite, Civilized and be with humility always. This is our expectation not from you and me but chiranjeevi.
He has talked to Brahmin community also as below… If you do not know telugu, He says he is with them and he will constitue a Corporation for brahmins, and provide free education for Economically bakward brahmin and take care of archakas.
He embraces both humility in life and hunamity as religion. I wish he will not be biased on any community.
I will try not to be subjective where ever possible.
Have a good one!
http://eenadu.net/panelhtml.asp?qrystr=htm/panel12.htm
February 9th, 2009 at 12:41 PM
Dear Citizen of AP Gaaru, I felt very Bad for blasting You for NO Reason.
Seriously, I should Not have gone hyper emotional.
And though my First language is telugu, I studied in Kendriya Vidyalaya, Central School and therefore cant read and write Telugu. I can read with great difficulty alone.
But, how did You figure out, I am A Brahmin?
I admit, BJP lost cadre in AP.
But, in Telangana Region, BJP can stioll surprise Many, Particularly Congress.
The threat to BJP in assembly elections is from Lok Satta.
February 9th, 2009 at 12:55 PM
And Citizen of AP Gaaru, can You please tell me whose Votes would Chiru cut into?
Who will be a Bigger loser, congress/TDP
The so called grand alliance is effective Only in The Telangana Region.
Excep for a few pockets in Guntur district and in Srikakulam and some areas of Visakhapatnam and now dissolved constituency of Bhadrachalam, Communists are virtually Non Existent in AP.
By Launching Balakrishna in Hindupur and with Kuppam, CBN’s constituency being part of Chittoor Lok Sabha Constituency, TDP may hav e fair chances here. but, elsewhere they are likely to lose, though they may put some fight in Anantpur.
Karnool and Tirupati are likely to go to PRP’s kitty as Chiru is standing from Tirupati Assembly Segment and Therefore, this would probably also help PRP gain in Lok Sabha.
From Karnool, PRP’s candidate for Lok Sabha is Booma Nagi Reddy, who is likely to win, with encouraging result from Alagedda ZPTC Elections.
Nandyala, cuddappah and Rajampeta are congress strongholds
Thatz Harsh Reality.
About the three constituencies in south Coastal AP; Nellore, N Janardhan Reddy;Ongole,panabaka Lakshmi and Bapatla,Duggabati Purandareshwari as congress candidates, PRP may have tough time.
BJP’s former MP from NelloreK.Balakondiah has resigned from BJP citing importance to Telangana Leaders alone and therefore BJP has forfieted this seat.
In Narsapur, which is the native of Chiru, BJP’s Krishnamraju can scrape through Only if there is Cross voting in assembly and lok sabha ballots
in Visakhapatnam alone, BJP has some chances as Their Candidate is D V Subba Rao, a Former Mayor and ofcourse there is Huge Brahmin Population in VSKP.
of the 14 Lok Sabha Seats in the region starting from Krishna Districts to Srikakulam, PRP would Sweep and is likely to Win 10 Lok Sabha seats a Minimum.This is The Region, PRP can bank on.
February 9th, 2009 at 12:56 PM
Hi Citizen of Andhra Pradesh,
Chiranjeevi is doing too many promises, it is not possible at all. He is making fool to public.
February 9th, 2009 at 12:56 PM
And what about Mudragada Padmanabam?
has He joined PRP or is he still in TDP
He is a Popular Kaapu Leader from Kakinada
February 9th, 2009 at 12:58 PM
well, Chiru is Not targeting Lok Sabha at all.
However, if Telangana is carved out, of the remaining 175 seats, PRP is likely to have more seats.
The Coastal Belt is Key to the formation of Government
Probably, chiru has forgot that there will be simultaneous polls.
February 9th, 2009 at 1:05 PM
If PRP succeeds in getting C ommon Symbol, congress would lose Heavily and TDP too would face the heat.
It would be Interesting to see, if there would be any Cross Voting in Assembly and Lok Sabha Polls in AP.
But, Still I am of the view that in Telangana, in the following constituencies there would be Quadrangular fight in Lok Sabha Polls :
Hyderabad, Secunderabad,Malkajigiri,Chevella,Mahboobnagar,Karimnagar and one warrangal/mehaboobabad, depending on where from BJP would field C Janga Reddy)
February 9th, 2009 at 1:09 PM
Hi Citizen of Andhra Pradesh,
See Raj’s analysis. He is having very deep knowledge of politics. Only jourunalist and election expert may have such type of knowledge. I do not what type of job he is doing. I am also trying to learn from Raj. I have never found person like Raj( Vikas is also having good knowledge). See his logic,do not see his conclusion. He is pro BJP but he is not doing any wrong analysis in favour of BJP knowingly.
February 9th, 2009 at 1:13 PM
Dear and Respected Citizen of AP Gaaru, Wht has upset me was Your Telangana Break Up.
BJP Cannot be Ignored in Telangana, BJP’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Hyderabad was a success. Though BJP has NOT Impressed at Vijayawada VijaySankalp Yatra.
Modi Ji’s Presence can Polarize the votes in The Telangana Region.
Further, I feel, Congress with it’s strong Anti-Telangana Stand Cant get more than 15 assembly seats.
PRP if They wish to see Chiru as CM should concentrate more on their stongholds, The Coastal Belt. Coastal AP from Sullurpeta to Ichapuram have 120 Assembly segments.
PRP has to Win 85 seats in This Region if They want to see Chiru as CM of AP
February 9th, 2009 at 1:22 PM
Nope, some of my Analysis is from Wishful thinking too.
But,I feel, in the Rayalaseema Region. PRP is Not sostrong. Rayalaseema has always remained Congress Bastion.
If one sees the Assembly Results of AP from’83 till 204; Congress has held it’s sway in this region except in ’94 when there was a stong Anti-Congress wave.
Also, it’s Not easy for Any New Party to Break Congress’s dominance in Faction Ridden Rayalaseema.
I hate to say, that No Developmet or Even Populist Schemes can ever get votes here. Everything depends only on Faction Heads, The Feudal Lords.
under YSR’s leadership, the law and order situation in Rayalaseema Region has become worser than Lallu’s Bihar or communists Bengal.
Political Killings have become the norm in Rayalaseema.
Yet, chiru’s presence can change equations in Tirupati region and Booma Nagi Reddy’s entry will boost PRP in Karnool.
Hindupur, where I initially
February 9th, 2009 at 1:36 PM
contd.,
Hindupur, which I initially felt can go The BJP way because of their candidate actor Naresh has nurtured the constituency for the past four years have been washed off, as Balakrishna has entered the political scene and hence TDP can make an impact here.
now it seems, they are bringing in jr NT R too.
Chittoor Parliamentary constituency would witness a hard battle between Congress and TDP. PRP has completely forgot this region,
Again, I feel, it’s Not easy to break the congress’s strongholds in South Coastal Andhra
So for Each Party/Alliance if, we have to speak in terms of Strongholds, then :
for Congress : Rayalaseema(Nandyala,Cuddappah,Rajaampeta in Particular, can put tough fight in Anantapur and Chittoor) South Coastal AP(All Three ; Nellore, Ongole, Bapatla, however, PRP can give a good fight in Ongole,as this constituency shares special relationship with Chiru),will suffer very badly in krishna-guntur regions through, godavari and uttar Andhra. probably may no win a seat in these regions!!!In Telangana,except for Peddapally, G Venkataswamy and Khammam Renuka Choudary, Congress will cut a sorry figure
for BJP : (specific constituencies in Telanga Region;viz,Secunderabad;Bandaru Dattatreyya,Malkajigiri:Nallu Indrasena Reddy,Hyderabad: likely candidate–Subash Chanderji, former depty Mayor of Hyderabad,Chevella, Baddam Balaram Reddy;have to do hard work here and cant simply bank on polarization of votes or urban votes, chevella is NOT an urban constituency, Karimnagar–Ch Vidya Sagar Rao;if and only if KCR opts medhak, the native constituency of KCR wich he is likely to as KCR’s victory margin was narrow in 2008 By E
February 9th, 2009 at 1:50 PM
contd.,
KCR’s victory margin was narrowed down in 2008 By Elections in Karimnagar and as Narendra is out of TRS, KCR may opt for Medhak.
in Mehaboobnagar, BJP has announced Jhansi Rani as Their Candidate who seems to be a strong candidate in Mehaboobnagar constituency and BJP has to field C Janga Reddy from Mehabbobabad and Not from Warrangal as, TDP’s Candidate from Warrangal, Erraballi Dayakar Rao is A Popular choice amongst voters)
in Rayalaseema and south Coastal Districts, BJP is very weak.
In The Central and North Coastal Districts, BJP can Bank only on Visakhapatnam and Narsapur if and only if There is Cross voting between Assembly and Lok Sabha Polls
TDP : will be the real loser apart from Congress.
with Eenaadu favouring Chiru over Naidu, TDP will find it hard.
In Telangana, because of the Alliance with TRS and with the support of commies , Grand Alliance will be the leader(particularly in Rural segments) in Rayalaseema, Hindupur is the Only Stronghold for TDP, ere again in Anantapur and Chittoor , TDP would have a fierce battle with congress(in Anatapur, we may see a triangular fierce triangular battle between Congress–TDP–PRP)
in South Coastal AP, TDP will cut a sorry figure.
In Central And North Coastal AP, which until recently have been TDP strongholds , TDP is on the verge of route except in srikakulam, as their candidate there is yerran naidu. In Narsarao peta assembly segment, kodela sivaprasad of TDP may win but, in the remaining segments, TDP would probably lose. In Kakinada, if Mudragada Padmanabham remains with TDP, then TDP can win some more seats , but, wit huge pressure on Kapu leaders to join PRP, mudragada Padmanabam may jump into PRP when elections are announced, this would be a severe blow to TDP, probabl a death knell in Godavari Districts.
February 9th, 2009 at 1:57 PM
Praja Rajyam :
Clean Sweep in North and Central Coastal AP
South Coastal AP — Not easy to Break Congress’s cosolidation,Has Chance in Ongole Division and Parts of Nellore Division.
Rayalaseema, Select Pockets : tirupati and Karnool Divisions for Sure would vote for PRP, can also give A Good Fight in Anatapur and A Run for money to congress and TDP in Hindupur, if planned well.
A Lot in Hindupur segment will depend on The Muslim Vote. Hindupur and Cudappah are two regions, where muslim votes will be deciding factor(may be samajwadi party should try their luck here, lol)
Telangana, Not A Cakewalk for PRP-NTP Alliance
Lok Satta — largely arm chair supporters.
Can cut into BJP’s votebank in the assembly segments around Hyderabad region
February 9th, 2009 at 2:00 PM
well Ritesh, I am A Research Scholar.
I am Doing PhD in BioMaterials.
I have A Masters Degree in Chemistry from IIT Madras and am now in Taiwan, doing my PhD in The Department of Materials Scienc and Engineering. I am working o Engineering Polymeric Materials for Controlled Drug Delivery and Their Pharmacokinetic Applications.
February 9th, 2009 at 2:01 PM
however, I wanted to be A Journalist , but my Mother had me change my career, she insisted I be A Scientist
February 9th, 2009 at 2:03 PM
Yes, I am Pro BJP though I have several Differences with RSS.
I seriously Oppose many of The Activities of Several Sangh Parivar outfits.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:10 AM
Hi,
BJP should fight election alone in WB,Kerala,TN,AP.
After election these parties will support BJP, Because they are not having
any other option. These parties can not support Congress( Because of
left support TMC can not support Congress)
1. TDP and TRS
2.AIADMK
3.TMC
If BJP goes alone, then BJP would able to develop own base in these states. If BJP is going to have alliance these parties, BJP should have 50% seats sharing. If immediate election happens again, BJP should go again for election. It would be beneficial to BJP.
February 10th, 2009 at 6:41 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP should announce chief minister candidate in AP from Telangana region. He should not fight election. Only he should take participate in campaign. It will make BJP strong in Telangana region.
Dou you(Raj) think it would be beneficial for BJP or not?
Right now no chief minister(Chiru,Naidu,Reddy) candidate is from Telangana region.
February 10th, 2009 at 8:03 AM
BJP knows very well that in AP, BJP is Not in a Position to form Government. therefore, announcing CM Candidate would be Foolish.
BJP Should go forward in the present direction of focussing on Telangana.
BJP should make people convince that Only BJP can give Telangana and liberate the Telangana People from Distress.
Announcing A Telanganaite as CM may be counter Productive as it would leed to campaign by opposition that BJP has diluted the stand and is for United AP with A Telanganaite as CM.
Further, BJP has NO Leader anywhere in AP besides Telangana.
Several Leader from Nellore have left BJP for overdue Importance to Telangana and Telangana Leaders. Therfore, BJP would be Mocking themselv es if they announce A CM Candidate.
In Visakhapatnam apart from being ABrahmin City, The BJP’s Candidate is The Most Popular and Most Respected Man of Visakhapatnam.
February 10th, 2009 at 10:09 AM
Hi Raj,
(Part1)
There are two pole in Indian politics. One is BJP and ohter is Congress.
Each and Every party has to decide where it has to go(BJP or Congress).
One day it will happen. I have told many times, left will go with Congress in WB,Kerala and Tripura. BJP has to show strong presence always.
Contd..
February 10th, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Hi Raj,
(Part2)
Why should people of AP cast vote to BJP for assembly?
Ans : BJP is national party. It will take care of state better than any other
regional party. Second important thing BJP chief minister’s performance is
better than any other party’s chief minister. See Modi, Shivraj, Raman, Yedurappa, Raje, Himanchal Pradesh, Nitish Kumar etc.
(contd..)
February 10th, 2009 at 11:19 AM
Hi Raj,
(Part3)
In democracy winning and loosing election is not important but u have to
show strong presence. Sushma has lost election many times. The reputation of Sushma Swaraj is very high in BJP and general public.
(contd..)
February 10th, 2009 at 3:05 PM
Andhra Pradesh MLC Teachers & Graduate Seats Biennial Election February 2009 results:
1. Khammam-Warangal-Nalgonda: K. Dileep Kumar (TRS) with a record of 22,233 votes over BJP candidate. It is a huge victory for “MahaKootami”(TDP-TRS-CPI-CPM).
2. Guntur-Krishan Teachers Constituency: K.S. Laxmana Rao re-elected.
3. Guntur-Krishan Graduates Constituency: Ilapuram Venkaiah (Congress) defeated TDP supported Gutta Sivarama Krishna by a narrow margin of 181 votes.
4. Hyderabad-Rangareddy-Mahaboobnagar Graduates Constituency: “MahaKootami”(TDP-TRS-CPI-CPM) candidate K. Nageswar was re-elected defeating BJP candidate Ramachandra Rao by wafer thin margin of just 436 votes.
5. Godavari Teachers Constituency: JACTO supported candidate K.V.V. Satyanarayana Raju defeated UTF candidate Cherukuri Subhash Chandra Bose.
The performance of BJP in these state level elections is very significant because these elections are held just 2-3 months before Lok Sabha Elections.
BJP has fought these elections independently.
Congress had fought without TRS & left and AIMIM had not put up candidates. the elections were held under Congress stae govt. administration. In this election, the form of Grand Alliance of TDP-TRS-Lefts was put to test.
The Lok Sabha elections will have little different trends from these elections.
Only possible changes are:
In Lok sabha Elections national issues will have more prominence which will give extra advantage to BJP.
The Lok sabha & assembly elections will be held under Central Election Commission and not under Congress state Government, which will benefit TDP, TRS, BJP, wherever who has support.
Analysis of these results will give a fair idea of likely outcome of Lok Sabha polls. I will try to analyse them in next communication.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Dear Raj and all
I have been regularly studying political developments for last 15-16 years. However I belong to UP but studied other states as well. Raj actually I was not very much convinced earlier when you were talking like 7-10 seats for BJP in AP and upto 7 in telangana only. Though I am aware BJP has influence in Telagana traditionally and they have been alternatively winning Secunderabad LS seat since 1991 and always stood second in Hyderabad. I know BJP got almost 10% votes in 1991 and won Secunderabad LS seat. in 1996, they secured nearly 6% votes and lost the Secunderabad LS seat. then 1998 was the most wonderful year, when it garnered 17% votes itself and bagged four seats: Secunderabad, Karimnagar, Kakinada, Rajamundary; this was the best performance till date. But unfortunately they were little short of majority at centre so they had deal with TDP for support and BJP growth stopped. In 1999 LS election BJP had seat adjustments with TDP, in which BJPO recieved a very rough deal. However BJP won 7 LS seats, 3 more than last time but their vote share came down to 10% and BJP had to compromise with junior partner with no BJp candidates in most of the seats. Then in 2004, BJP had to suffer a lot becuse of the misdoings of TDP. It vote % further slipped by 1-2% and they drew a blank in the Lok Sabha seats.
This time in 2009, BJP is first time fighting independently in all seats; after 1998 when BJP put up most spectacular performance 17% votes & $ LS seats alone. I hope they will the storey which was left in middle in 1998 and cross 20% vote line and pick-up 7-8 seats at least.
The MLC biennial elections trends indicates likely outcome, which will be discussed in next communication.
February 10th, 2009 at 3:41 PM
I had always analysed regions clusterwise becuse I do strongly feel that LS elections are turning into local battles and this process of decentralisation is futher continuing to lower level. The national issue do play a significant role but local issues do have their telling effect.
If 2004 LS elections was an aagregate various state elections, then 1999 Lok Sabha Elections is going to be integration sevel sub-regional areas poll outcome. Within in a state there will be different sub regions and with different clusters, which need to be seen separately and also conjunctively. That was the reason I was focussing on West UP, Rohilkhand, Poorvanchal, Urban centres, Reserved seats separately and jointly in the case of UP. In Andhra telangana needs special approach and within Telangana Hyderabad Urban area, Northern part, etc needs to be seen in separate clusters on the basis of available, reliable and recent data. the just concluded MLC elections provides such information. This data will be analysed clusterwise in subsequent communication.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:03 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, The Hyderabad Graduates-Teachers Constituency is A Morale Boost for BJP.
Remember, Congress and MIM have NOT put any candidates out here.
So, it is most likely that INC and MIM have voted for the grand alliance to Defeat BJP candidate.
In the other constituency in Telangana, Viz Khammam-Warrangal, Nalgonda, BJP has some presence only in Warrangal and to a lesser Extent in Nalgonda. whereas in Khammam, BJP is virtually Non Existent(even in ’98 when BJP Polled 26% of Popular vote in Telangana Region, in Khammam BJP and Warrangal)
Therefore in Telangana too BJP Should Primarily Focus on : Secunderabad, Malkajigiri,Hyderabad,Chevella,MehaboobNagar,KarimNagar and one more Seat where, there is a Possibility to Win. BJP Should Win a 7 Seats from Telangana.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:06 PM
Correction Vikas Ji, BJP didn’t poll so badly in Lok Sabha Elections in AP. it’s in Assembly elections that BJP got only 2%, in Lok Sabha BJP got about7% in AP 2004
February 10th, 2009 at 4:28 PM
Ritesh Ji, many in AP feel, only a Local Party can understand their problems well.
Further, BJP is Showing NO Enthusiasm in AP Except for Telangana.
Infact, some of The BJP Leaders including former MP of Nellore(Then A Reserved Seat), Balakondiah. He alleged that State BJP is Run by Telangana Leaders. It seems he has joined TDP.
I swear, BJP out of Telangana Region has almost lost the battle before the war has begun.
With The Exception of Visakhapatnam, Where BJP has Fielded D V Subba Rao, Former Mayor of Visakhapatnam and also The Most Popular Man and The Most Respected Man in Visakhapatnam. Also, He belongs to Kaapu Community(the same caste as that of PRP Founder, Mega Star Chiranjeevi), threfore, though in Assembly, They may vote for PRP, in Lok Sabhait is most likely that They would vote for BJP.
In Visakhapatnam, While The Urban Areas have a Huge Brahmin Population(as high as 30%), Kaapu’s Dominate the Rural Regions as They Own the lands.
The Other Lok Sabha Seat where BJP can Bank on(but this time, there Should be Cross Voting as Narsapur from where BJP Fielded Yesteryears Tollywood Hero, U V Krishnam Raju, Who was Popularly Known as “Rebel Star” is Native Constituency of Chiranjeevi)
After Demure Response to BJP’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Vijayawada(While BJP’s Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Hyderabad was A Huge Succes with Attendance crossing 5 lakhs, the one in Vijayawada was Demure, BJP hasnt touched any Local Issue and didnt even appeal to vote in the assembly and the whole focus was merely on Lok Sabha Polls), I feel, Though Initially, I banked on Vijayawada(for it being an Urban Constituency), now I have Back Tracked.
similarly, ever since, NTR’s Actor Son, N Balakrishna has Plunged into Politics, I have left hopes of Hindupur, where otherwise, BJP had Fair chances for :
1. Their Candidate, Actor Naresh(Son of Actress Vijayanirmala and step brother of Telugu Hero, Mahesh) has Noursihed This Constituency for the past 4 years
2. This constituency has a Vibrant muslim population and has seen communal Violance , Hence BJP can Polarize the votes
3. Neighbouring State Effect from Karnataka.
However, With Balakrishna , likely to contest Elections from Hindupur, this seat would go The TDP way.
Chiranjeevi is contesting Tirupati from Assembly segment, hence, Tirupati Lok Sabha seat too would go to PRP(most likely, since chinta mohan, the current MP is highly unpopular as he is Never reachable)
Nellore is another constituency I batted for BJP, but, I have found that former BJP MP from Nellore has quit BJP in 2007 due to partiality shown to the Telangana Leaders and complete Neglect of leaders from other region(and This is True to a large extent)
Therefore, I have given Hopes for Nellore as well.
The Good News for BJP in Narsapur, where U V Krishnam Raju is contesting is that His Nephew, Prabhas, A Very Popular Mass Actor has announced He would Campaign for BJP and in Particular for His Uncle.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, in East-West Godavari Districts and Krishna-Guntur Districts, PRP Dindt Field Any Candidates. In Assembly Elections, PRP would Sweet in These Four Districts
February 10th, 2009 at 4:33 PM
*I mean, Sweep
February 10th, 2009 at 4:33 PM
TELANGANA:
broadly I will divide telangana region into 3 clusters
The northern Telangana: It comprises of mostly rural, backward, naxalite influenced area. This cluster comprises of six seats: Adilabad (ST), Peddapalle (SC), Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Zahirabad and Medak. In this area there is no much recent data, buch past data indicates TRS to be strong in this region. One seat Karimnager, BJP may be hopeful if KC rao (TRS) doesnot contest from here and BJP puts up Ch. Vidyasagar Rao. then with extensive campaigning and good efforts it could be won.
Hyderabad and suburban Urban Areas: It consists of Hyderabad, Secunderabad, Mahbubnagar, Chevella, Malkajgiri, Nagarkurnool (SC).
This area much urbanised and has good percentage of Muslim population making polarisation for BJP. This is most promising area in Telangana for BJP. This view is further strengthened by MLC election result; which is quoted as under:
Hyderabad-Rangareddy-Mahaboobnagar Graduates Constituency: K.Nageswar of TDP-TRS-Left was re-elected defeating BJP candidate Ramachandra Rao by wafer thin margin of just 436 votes.
The difference between BJP and Grand Alliance candidate was even less than 1%. Bringing Narendra Modi for campaigning in this urban polarised area will help much BJP as suggested by all of you.
In normal situation BJP should get 3 seats out of 6 here and with good efforts and promising candidates may even notch up 4 seats. However even in adverse situation thay should pick up 2 seats at least.
A point of caution the voters in Graduates seat are educated, urban upper class mostly, however in LS elections there will be more Dalits, slum areas voters.
South Telangana: This area comprises of five LS seats: Nalgonda, Bhongir, Warangal (SC), Mahbubadad, Khammam. This area has pockets of influence of Lefts & TDP base which will definitely help Grand Alliance. Congress leader Renuka Chowdhary also contests from this region- Khammam, who even won in 1999 in the presence of TDP-BJP alliance sweep when Congress only got 5 seats out of 42 in the state.
Khammam-Warangal-Nalgonda: K. Dileep Kumar (TRS) with a record of 22,233 votes over BJP candidate. It is a huge victory for Grand Alliance (TDP-TRS-CPI-CPM).
But the MLC elections results tells the story of today: Grand Alliance candidate won with highest record margin of over 22000 votes and secured more than 50% votes, as I pointed that this areas substantial TDP and Left influences. BJP stood second and secured more than 25% votes.
In its campaign, BJP should focus here on 4 seats leaving Khammam and should attack on Grand alliance of TDP-TRS-Left heavily. It should make issue of relations between TRS and anti-Telangana Left parties and take its benefit. It can hope to win 1 or max. 2 seats here.
Summing Up: Total for BJP in Telangana = Northern (1) + Hyderabad (2-3-4) + Southern (1-2) = 4 to 7 seats.
Outside Telangana, there is not much scope for BJP except a few promising seats, the MLC election results also confirms this feeling. One such seat, I see is Vishakhapatnam which is a mostly Urban seat with good Brahmin population. also BJP has a strong popular candidate there. A couple of surprise constituencies may also come. From remaining Andhra, 1-2 seats may be bagged by BJP.
For total Andhra Pradesh, I am now calculating 5 to 8 seats.
Earlier I was thinking of TRS-BJP alliance; but now I think it will be damaging and limit the BJP’s scope and they will be left to fight in only 6-7 seats in Telangana and maximum they could win 5 only, which they are capable of alone. also TRS will give tham waste seats.
BJP should not align with PRP either because presence of PRP, TDP, Congress will only help BJP in some seats in coastal andhra Pradesh by dividing Dalit, OBC and Muslim – Christian votes among themselves.
Also after elections TRS & PRP has no options other than to support BJP led NDA at centre.
February 10th, 2009 at 4:34 PM
But, for Lok Sabha Elections, PRP is Directionless
February 10th, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Vikas Ji,
You made a Good Point that many slum dwellers and Dalits would be voting in Urban Areas of Telangana and one should be Vary of it.
But, AP is NOT UP.
Unlike, in UP, Despite an 18% SC Population, Dalits in AP DO NOT Have A Leader or A Political Party. Infact, the two Major Dalit SubSects, Maala and Maadiga who together constitute above 80% of SC Population in AP are Warring Factions. Thy Hate Each other and in the reserved category work to defeat the other.The Demand to Categorization of SC in AP by the maadigas on the pretext that only maala’s have hugely benefited due to their proximity to reddy’s who show their allegiance to congress has added fuel to fire.
BJP and TDP are the Only Parties in AP Supporting Categorization of SCs. TDP Supports SC Categorization demand as maadigas are supporters of TDP since maalas are supporters of congress.
BJP supports to gain a foothold over the remaining marginalized SCs besides these two dominant subcastes.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:05 PM
Hi Vikas and Raj,
Beautiful analysis. Excellent analysis. Extraordinary analysis.I am very lucky, I have got person like you.
I told, BJP should not have any alliance with major party except some small party (Goud and vijaykant). If stop BJP’growth. TRS,TDP,PRP,AIADMK and TMC are not knowing basic of politics.
Alliance is the tool which can stop BJP’growth. TRS,TDP,PRP,AIADMK and TMC are not using this tool. After election TRS,TDP,PRP,AIADMK and TMC will have request with BJP to support BJP. I have already told Congress can not form gov at any cost. Otherwise immediate election will take place. Small parties( which is not part of BJP or Congress) will be wiped out.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:07 PM
Dear Raj
Actually wrote BJP slipped by 1-2% in 2004 Lok Sabha elections in AP, I didnot wrote BJP slipped to 1-2%. The preposition used was by not to; which meant from 1999 elections app. 10% BJP came down to 8% (2% less) what you you are writing exactly. anyways it is not a grammar test, we meant same.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Yes, BJP’s Candidate in Visakhapatnam is The Most Respected and Most Popular Man in Visakhapatanam.
now on to Telangana Region :
Very good split up by You Sir!!!!
Northern Telangana for sure is A TRS Stronghold .
KCR has Decided to shift to Medhak. In 2004, A Narendra Reddy, the now rebel TRS Leader contested as a TRS Candidate. Now, he may contest as an independant backed by congress or he may join PRP. However, he is involved in Human Tafficking and that would give a Bad Image to PRP. therefore, Chiru may not entertain Narendra.
so, it’s most likely that Narendra would remain in fray as an independant backed by INC.
Even in the worst case, in Central Telangana BJP can Bag in Secunderabad and Malkajigiri. But, with Grand Alliance splitting the muslim vote by fielding an Editor of the urdu daily whose office the MIM attacked(Hyderabadi’s are irked by MIM’s activities), and With Sri Narendra Modi campaigning in Telangana(He will be Addressing Vijay Sankalp Yatra at Karimnagar on 21st Feb), BJP has very High chances of Winning Hyderabad Lok Sabha Seat, though in the assembly segments, BJP’s votes may be split by Lok Satta, but, in Lok Sabha, The Urban Voter would certainly Vote for BJP in Hyderabad Region irrespective of to whom They would vote in assembly.
Chevella is another seat, BJP has high chances, in fact, fair chances I would say. iN MehaboobNagar as well, as indicated by MLC Election, BJP has A Fair Chance, further, BJP’s candidate, Jhansi is considered a Strong Candidate in Mehaboobnagar region.
Nagarkarnool is a Rural Constituency and TDP can retain this seat.
BJP has NO Hope in Khammam, in Nalgonda, too, the pro-telanganaites would sail with TRS.
From Bhuvanagiri(Bhongiri), Vijayashanti has expressed her interest to contest, though Grand Alliance wants her to contest from karimnagar, vijayshani has shown little interest in karimnagar. she wants to contest either from Warrangal (which she claims to be from where her grand parents are)or would settle down with Bhuvanagiri(Bhongiri).
However, TDP would Not sacrifice Warrangal Parliamentary from where their leader, Erraballi Dayakar Rao has won in 2008 By Elections.
so, BJP should concentrate only in Warrangal and Mehaboobabad and BJP should Field C Janga Reddy(Former HanamKonda MP who defeated PV Narasimha Rao in The Pro-NTR Wave in 1984)from Mehaboobabad as, Hanamkonda has been dissolved and Hanamkonda Assembly Segment now falls under Mehaboobabad Parliamentary Constituency. What is Encouraging is that BJP has polled about 25% of Votes in MLC elections in This Region. This is certainly an Encouraging sign. In The Sense that BJP is gaining The Lost Ground in Telangana.
In Khammam, The Only Party that can defeat Renuka Choudary is PRP.
Next take the Northern Telangana Region, The Region where TRS is Extremely Strong.
As I have already Discussed about Karimnagar and Medhak, I will leave these two constituencies here.
Adilabad is A TRS Citadel. However, if Tribals, Particularly Lambadis who are still Staunch Hindus support BJP, BJP can give a good fight here. BJP here is gaining grounds through Raising objections to Babli Project. Congress would recieve a Drubbing here as Congress has NOT Opposed Babli Project. Nizamabad, again TRS Stronghold, but, BJP can put a good fight here and give GA(Grand Alliance of TRS-TDP-CPMP-CPI) A run for it’s money as some of the votes might be split by PRP
The Pedapally MP is A Congress Strong Man G Venkataswamy(His Name was in the rounds for consideration for Presidential Nominations, however, he was disappointed that he could not finally be nominated as UPA Candidate for Presidential Polls), so most likely, congress would be retaining this seat.If I am Not wrong, congress retained peddapally in ’99 as well.
Zahirabad is a New constituency. This has a Vibrant muslim population and borders Karnataka.
Therefore, BJP’s Chances in Zahiabad depand on Two Men apart from The Choice of The Candidate; Sri Narendra Modi and Sri Yeddiyurappa. PS: Zahirabad is A Largely Rural Consttuency and People follow Hindi(urdu) very well here. Therefore, Campaigning by Sri Narendra Bhai Modi(for The Hindu Vote) and Sri Yeddiyurappa(for Rural Vote) will Help BJP a lot and may even give BJP an Edge.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Okay.
February 10th, 2009 at 5:28 PM
Hindupur was one constituency on which BJP could have Banked as communal tension has created a favourable atmosphere for BJP and in adition, BJP’s Candidate had worked Hard to Nurture The Constituency for the last 4 years. but, entry of N Balakrishna and that He would contest from Hindupur has thrown Water on BJP’s chances here.
February 10th, 2009 at 9:43 PM
Hi Raj,
If BJP is going to fight from Hyd seat. Last time TDP was partner, TDP votes was also given to BJP. This time TDP is not with BJP, Will it create problem for BJP ot not.
February 11th, 2009 at 5:55 AM
TDP is Not Popular in Hyderabad.
In ’91, ’96, ’98 When BJP Fought The Elections alone, TDP stood a poor fourth in Hyderabad.
February 11th, 2009 at 6:55 AM
Hi Raj,
Same may happen with BJP in Dumdum (TMC).
February 11th, 2009 at 12:17 PM
Hi All, Further, Losses to TDP, infact, A Major Jolt to TDP in Srikakulam.
I was just following The Events that had happened in the recent months on how many Leaders have joined PRP from other political parties.
In Srikakulam, A Senior TDP Leader, TDLP(Telugu Desam Legislature Party) Deputy Leader has quit TDP and Joined PRP. It seems He is Planning to contest Vizianagaram Lok Sabha Constituency or Etcherla Assembly C onstituency.
He can weild Influence in about 5 assembly constituencies in The Srikakulam Region.He has quit TDP owing differences with The Srikakulam TDP Leader, K.Yerran Naidu. Therefore, TDP which has been winning Srikakulam Parliamentary seat since ’84 may find it hard this time to retain the seat.
However, this has NO Implication to BJP.
BJP is weak in this region.
February 11th, 2009 at 12:29 PM
Hi Raj,
TDP has done biggest mistake by breaking relation with BJP. If TDP is going to sit with BJP, Direction of TDP will be clear. I think TDP is directionless party. BJP was most realible party for TDP. TDP has lost most realiable party.
February 12th, 2009 at 3:26 AM
It’s good that BJP and TDP have parted ways.
In 2004, TDP Cadres worked for the defeat of BJP candidates.
Further, BJP’s growth got restricted because of TDP
February 12th, 2009 at 3:55 AM
Good nNews from Kerala!!!!
Dear Friends, This Time, BJP need Not work for defeating CM as CPM will Defeat CPM in Kerala.
The CPM has categorically stated to V S achutanandan that either side by ethics and be expelled or toe the party line and withdraw the CBI Inquiry against CPM Kerala state Secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan.
While Pinarayi Vijayan enjoys support of CPM Bosses, V S Achutanandan is The Sole Vote Catcher of CPM for common Public, His Expulsion before elections will have serious repurcurions and LF may lose all seats from kerala this time around. Ofcourse, this would benefit mostly Congress.
If V S Achutanandan Buckles under party pressures, and withdraws the CBI Inquiry, then it would send strong signals of LDF Being Corrupt and will have negative effect on LF not only in Kerala but elsewhere as well.
This is the best time for BJP to Win from Kerala and BJP Should Focus only on : Tiruvanantapuram, Palaghat(Palaghat Municipality is Adminsitrated by BJP),Kannur, Trissur and Kasargod.
And try to win 2-3 seats out of these 5 where BJP is Strong.
ofcourse, the remaining would go to UDF led by congress.
But, the great news will be that LF Will be Routed in Kerala!!!
February 12th, 2009 at 6:39 AM
Hi Raj,
There is no opposition in Kerala and WB(Left and Congress were sitting in Centre,It is against fundamental principle of politics). Only BJP is opposition. Mamta is not having any credibility. TDP and TRS are not having any credibility.Chiru policy is not clear. It is not difficult for BJP to get good entry for assembly poll(WB,Kerala,TN,AP).
February 12th, 2009 at 8:06 AM
BJP has a High Chance of Wining Bishnupur East By Poll in WB where The Candidate is Sri Tapan Gosh and He has been Able to Garner Support from Hindus in Bishnupur. Also, Hindu Groups are active and are being recieved well by the common people here.
AP, I have already discussed a lot about BJP’s prospects and it would be redundatn unless some neews pours in.
February 12th, 2009 at 8:27 AM
Hi Raj,
For AP you given information more than sufficient. Give more information about TN,WB and Kerala.
February 12th, 2009 at 8:37 AM
Well, Since I am basically from AP, I could give suficient information frm Andhra.
I lived in TamilNadu, but, for that further developments have to take place.
WB , I will post in east India forum.
Kerala, I have to wait for developments.
February 13th, 2009 at 2:25 PM
Latest News About BJP in AP :
According to Sri Bandaru Dattatreyya, BJP’s AP State Unit President , BJP has almost Finalized candidates for 30 Lok Sabha and 160 Assembly Segments.
However, BJP beyond Telangana has very little chances except in Visakhapatnam, Narsapur and Hindupur.
February 13th, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Hi,
1. BJP should two president. One for Telangana and other for AP-Telangana
2. Naidu should fight election from Nellore.
3. For assembly election BJP should announce two Chief Minister one for
Telangana and other for AP-Telangana
4.BJP should say, BJP chief ministers are best chief minister. They do lot
of developement ( see Shivraj,Modi).
5. Modi and Yedurappa and chief minister candidate of (AP-Telangana)
should have Vikas yatra in (AP-Telangana)
6. Sushma and Telangana chief minister candidate should have Telangana Rath yatra in Telangana.
6. Take care of cadres.
7. All these activities will provide enough base of BJP in AP.
8. Do not worry about insult(BJP chief minister candidates).
It happens in politics.
9. In next election BJP will perform ultimate.
February 13th, 2009 at 6:23 PM
Well, Venkaiah Naidu is NOT Contesting the polls.
Sushma Swaraj is prabhari for MP and Chattisgarh.
Also, even if Venkaiah Naidu contests from Nellore, His Home Constituency, It is very hard foe Him to Win in the present situation. Thta would be highly Demoralizing for BJP
BJP is concentrating Only in Telangana and here too BJP should leave constituencies like Khammam, Nagarkarnool and Medhak(from where KCR is likely to contest).
BJP should concentrate in : Secunderabad, Hyderabad, Malkajigiri,Chevella,Mehaboobnagar,Mehaboobabad,Zahirabad and KarimNagar. The Most Winnable and Potential Strong holds. In Addition BJP should also put efforts in Nizamabad, Adilabad,Pedapally.
And some efforts in Warrangal, Bhuanagiri(Bhongiri) and Nalgonda(These three are really Hard for BJP to Win)
In The Rest of AP, BJP has High Chances in Visakhapatnam, Fair chances in Narsapur with Hardwork and Crossvoting, Hindupur, again wit hardwork and effective man management along with cross voting.
And can Impress in Vijayawada.
February 13th, 2009 at 6:37 PM
I Humbly Tender my Apology to Sri Citizen of AP Gaaru and I am ashamed of myself for usin such Abusive Words Against Him.
I beg for Your Pardon Sir and Wish Chiru ALL THE BEST Whole Heartedly
February 13th, 2009 at 6:48 PM
For PRP, There are Good Signs in SriKakulam, Which has been a Stronghold for TDP till ’83.
In Uttar Andhra which Constitutes the following constituencies : Srikakulam, Araku,Vizianagaram(both Araku and Vizianagaram are New constituencies),Visakhapatnam and Anakapalle.
of these five, PRP has Hold over 4. Particularly, in Anakapalle and Vizianagaram, PRP is bound to Win.
As a Result both DP and Congress would be The Real Losers
If TDP loses in Srikakulam, it would demoralize Telugu Desam completely
February 13th, 2009 at 6:57 PM
oh!!! BJP Cant Field Janga Reddy from Mahbubabad as it is Reserved for ST.
February 13th, 2009 at 7:00 PM
Warrangal too is An SC Constituency now. therefore, te TDP strongman, Erraballi Dayakar Rao cannot fight elections from here. so, BJP Can give a good fight from Warrangal.
umn…
This is Intriguing !!!
February 14th, 2009 at 7:21 AM
Great Indepth Analysis Raj.
I agree with you, that BJP should fight it out alone , they’ll expand their base for future as well as get bigger bargain next time.
Advani joins Vaiko for Srilankan Tamil cause @ rediff
Do you think this will make some impact on NDA prospects in TN ?
I feel if NDA muster couple more parties they’ll might touch touble digits in TN.
February 14th, 2009 at 7:22 AM
http://specials.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/13sld1-advani-comes-out-in-support-of-lankan-tamils.htm
February 14th, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Dear AK, I thanks You for Your Appreciation. But, I have to clarify a lot on Telangana, because, I have mistaken some of the seats to be general, which They arent, hence TDP led Grand Alliance is actually much weaker than I thougt they are.
Though I lived in Chennai for 12 years, I am still Not famliar with TN Politics Deep South.
In Chennai, BJP is Strong only in South Chennai, Particularly Post Delimitation. If there is A DMDK-BJP Alliance, then for sure South Chennai would go The BJP’s Way. Adayar, T-Nagar have large Brahmin and Middle Class Population and therefore, would vote for BJP. In Velachery too, BJP has a good base. Saidapet is A Slum Area(by and large) and would vote for DMK. Shollinganallur would be probably split between DMK and ADMK while Virugambakam would vote for DMDK in Large proportion. Hence, DMDK-BJP Alliance for sure would Win in South Chennai.
Post Delimitation, Aranthangi assembly segment has come under Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency. In Aranthangi, S. Thirunavakarasar who is now in BJP is A Strong Leader and Would Win Even if He stands as an Independent!!! In Addition to Aranthangi, Ramanathapuram Lok Sabha Constituency has Ramanathapuram Assembly segments, which is communally Polarised for the past two years and also Mudukallathur, where RSS is active. Hence, BJP has some chances of winning from here by fielding Their National Vice President, Thiru S Thirunavakarasar from Ramanathapuram.
BJP should also effectively hold it’s folk in Kanniyakumari Parliamentary Constituency, which it has been losing to the likes of Saarath Kumar’s Party which by itself Cant win even a single seat.
BJP cant take any seat for granted in TN and has to put a lot of efforts.
Also, BJP Should Concentrate in select seats in TN and Not in the whole of TN:
SouthChennai,Coimbatore,Kanniyakumari,Ramanathapuram,Tirunalveli,
Sivaganga, Dharmapuri,Tirupattur,Tirichirapally.
February 14th, 2009 at 10:03 AM
Post Delimitation, Warrangal has become a Reserved Seat for SC.Therefore, the present warrangal MP of TDP Who won the 2008 By Poll , Erraballi Dayakar Rao cannot contest this time round. same way, BJP’s C Janga Reddy too Cant contest the parliamentary elections.
Hence, Warrangal has to be watched out for.
PRP Will Prove decisive in Warrangal and actually, Warrangal would see a fierce battle.
Another factor is that, None of the four players have a strong Dalit Leader from this region.
Mehboobabad, the constituency sounds like a muslim dominated one, but is infact A ST Reserved Constituency. Infact, All The Assembly Segments in this Constituency are Reserved. The Now Dissappeared Badrachalam(ST) Constituency has become part of Mehbubabad Parliamentary Constituency. Last time, in alliance with TRS and Congress, a communist got elected and most probably he would seek renomination from this constituency this time around(both CP and CPI) are demanding a Lion’s share of 3 parliamentary constituencies from CBN. In This Constituency too PRP would make some Impact, which would benefit BJP more than any other party.
In Badrachalam, Sri Rama Navmy is The Most Popular Festival(InFact, in The Whole of AP, if someone speaks against Sri Ram, they would be rewarded with slippers and would be spit upon, hence the DMK type of Aryan Draviddian divide and rule politics didnt succed in AP) and BJP as well as Sangh Parivar should use this occassion for Bringing in Hindu Natioanlism in The People and bring up Sri Ram Setu Issue here.
Further, The Tribals consider Shabari to be of Their Woman from This Region as this comes under Dandakaranya and it is believed that Sri Ram in Search of Maata Sita Tavelled through these parts of the forest and it is here that Shabari gave the tested fruits to Sri Ram.
This is A Golden Oppurtunity for BJP to gain a Hold in This Region.
February 14th, 2009 at 10:25 AM
With regards to AP, there is another dynamic, i.e. assembly elections are also happening along with Lok Sabha.
Since, BJP is strong in Telangana (117 assembly seats).
Even if they can even get 30 seats (1/3rd) and TRS-TDP fall short of 148 (majority mark), i think BJP will extend support to TDP in assembly for TDP-TRS support in center. Because PRP will not extend support to TDP and TDP won’t go with Congress.
Hopefully, that will add 10-15 seats for NDA Govt.
February 14th, 2009 at 10:27 AM
correction, 30 (1/4 th)
February 14th, 2009 at 10:41 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP can win two seats(Aranthangi, Ramanathapuram) alone if BJP leaders works very hard here. Am i right.Please correct me.
February 14th, 2009 at 10:46 AM
Hi AK,
TMC, DMK or AIADMK, (TDP+TRS) or PRP, these parties will have to
support BJP after election. Congress can not form gov in centre at any
cost. If it happens this time, BJP will be strong party in WB and Kerala.
February 14th, 2009 at 10:48 AM
Hi AK,
If BJP leaders work hard, definitely BJP will get more than 30 assembly seats in Telangana. TRS+TDP+LEFT is unholy alliance. Left is opposing Telangana. It will create big problem for TRS in Telangana. They have come very clear programs.
February 14th, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Ritesh, Aranthangi is An Assembly Segment in Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency
February 14th, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Dear AK, Telangana has 119 seats.
Well, I personally feel, Chiru will Win more seats then TDP-TRS-CPM-CPI-MBT alliance.
remember, besides Telangana, This Alliance is Not formidable.
CPM and CPI if they contest elections alone without having any alliance with any Major party, they would come a cropper as it happened in ’99 when CPI Drew a Blank and CPM won 2 seats(very narrowly) in AP Assembly.
Therefore, dont simply go by media buzz that Grand Alliance is formidable combination All over AP.
Due to BJP , in Telangana too, This so grand alliance would Not sweep.
AP Would see a Completely Fractured Verdict.
Chiru’s PRP too would fall short of Majority.
But, If one Splits AP Legislative Assembly, Demographically, in Central and Northern Coastal AP, PRP Would Sweep Elections and with Chiru standing in Tirupati and PRP Well Established in Kurnool, Chiru’s PRP would Win about 110-115 Seats and BJP would Win about 30-35 Assembly segments and hence, PRP-BJP can form Alliance in The State.
Chiru would certainly Oblige, as most of His seats would be from Non Telangana region, and once telangana is formed, His government would become more stable. BJP too would be Happy with this arrangement as : once Telangana is created , even if BJP-PRP Alliance falls short of Majority, if elections are held9I mean i Snap Polls are held in Telangana), BJP would form govt. on it’s own as They did in Karnataka. Further, PRP would extend support to NDA at the centre citing Common Minimum Programme
InFact, this situation is building up in AP
February 14th, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Dear Ritesh, TDP and TRS too are Hopless. Though Chandra Babu Naidu earned Respect as An Administrator, as Leader of Opposition, He was a Failure. Thatz the reason, Chiru had to Plunge into Politics.
Dont get me wrong , jhad Chiru Not formed His Party, AP would now be under ysr wave.
February 14th, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Hi Raj,
1. It means, BJP can win only one seat Ramanathapuram (If it is possible)from TN.
2.MDMK can have alliance with BJP or not.
February 14th, 2009 at 11:52 AM
well, There are some more Potentially Winnable seats for BJP in TamilNadu such as South Chennai, Kanniyakumari, Coimbatore
February 14th, 2009 at 11:56 AM
And Remember, BJP can Win Ramanathapuram If And ONLY If BJP Fields Thirunavakarasar as The Candidate. Had BJP Alligned with Jayalalithaa, she would Not have allowed Him to contest as S. Thirunavakarasar is Jayalalithaa’s Bete Noire(Bittter Rival).
It’s Good that BJP’s Aliance with ADMK Didnt Materialize and Jaya has taken left turn.
MDMK may remain with Jayalalithaa and it’s most likely that MDMK Would NOT Forge an Alliance with BJP
February 14th, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Latest new, Vaiko & Advani shared a platform for Sri Lankan Tamil Cause.
I think MDMK might join BJP.
http://specials.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/13sld1-advani-comes-out-in-support-of-lankan-tamils.htm
February 14th, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Personally, TDP should Bite Dust. TDP cant even Win 50 Assembly Seats this time around and Grand Alliance at the most would win 80 Seats.
February 14th, 2009 at 12:19 PM
Hi Raj,
How many min and max seats can be won by PRP in Telangana?
February 14th, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Hi Raj,
If PRP and BJP may get 60 seats in Telangana. In that case BJP may
form gov in Telangana. That is why i am saying BJP should work hard for
assembly in Telangana and AP. In politics, anytihing may happen.
February 14th, 2009 at 12:22 PM
Hi,
One day BJP will have major role in AP.
February 14th, 2009 at 12:58 PM
Dear AK,
Let me Discuss on Rayalaseema, A Political Hot Pot though Politically This Region has now only 52 Assembly segments(1 less post delimitation), this region will decide the fate of the incumbent CM, ysr and former CM, chandra babu Naidu. In Addition, PRP Founder President and Future CM Aspirant Chiranjeevi too is contesting from Tirupati, which is in Rayalaseema.
To make things Hotter(in The Already Hot summer, lol),All Three of Them are contesting from very Nearby Places in The Southern Rayalaseema.
Chiru from Tirupati(in chittoor district)
Chandra Babu Naidu from Kuppam(again in Chittoot district)
ysr from pulivendala(in cuddappah district)
Tirupati is 70 KM North East of Kuppam and Pulivendala is about some 100 KM North West of Tirupati and Kuppam and Pulivendala are about some 120 KM apart. Therefore, This Region would see Intense Campaign(BJP is Not A Player here, particularly when it comes to Assembly Elections in the current scenario)
In Lok Sabha, Rayalaseema has 8 Parliamentary Constituencies of which two ;Tirupati and Chittoor(post delimitation) are Reserved for SC.
In Kurnool, PRP has established a base, as former TDP Strongman Bhuma Nagi Reddy(Former MP Who in ’99 defeated a Former CM and the tallest Factionalist Leader in Kurnool, Kotla Vijay Bhaskar Reddy) and His Wife, Shobha Nagi Reddy(former MLA) are now in PRP and in the recent Alagedda ZPTC Election, PRP supported Independent Candidate Won with an Overwhelming Majority while TDP could just save the deposit.This has sent alarming bellsto TDP in Traditional congress Bastion. Therefore,
1. in Kurnool,The Fight would be Primarily Between PRP and Congress and PRP is Bound to Win Maximum Number of Assembly Segments and also wrest the Parliamentary seat from Congress. TDP would come a poor third here. BJP isnt a player at all in This Region.
2. in Nandyal, which is again in Kurnool District(this is the constituency of former PM, Sri P V Narasimha Rao). No Fresh Data. There has Not been any Popular TDP or Congress Leader from This Region joining PRP. Further, Chiru’s Yatra didnt touch This Constituency. This has Traditionally Been A Congress Stronghold and in this election too, it is most likely that congress would retain Nandyal and the fight is Primarily between Congress and TDP. PRP may give a fight and upset calculations in this region.Again, BJP isnt A Player here.
3.in Anantapur(Another Faction Ridden Hot Bed in Rayalaseema), This City, Anantapur has a Large Following for Chiru. This has a great following for NTR family too. Politically, Congress too is extremely strong here. Hard for PRP to Wrest from congress. TDP Would Fight Hard here as it is a Prestige Issue. The Splitting of Ati Icumbency Votes may Help Congress.
However, VERY IMPORTANT Thing to be Noted : BSP has a decent presence here in some of the constituencies and would Mar The Congress Hopes. In 2005 By Election, when TDP salin MLAs wife won from one of the assembly segments from Anantapur,the congress came a poor third and BSP surprised everyone by coming second.
Again, BJP has No Presence in this constituency
4. Cuddappah, This is the native District of the incumbent CM of AP, ysr. There is A ysr wave in this region.
5.Rajampeta, ysr’s brother is the sitting MP and would retain the seat.This is another constituency in cuddappah district(Rayalaseema has 4 districts and each district has two constituencies, Kunool-Kurnool and Nandyal,Anantapur-Anantapur and Hindupur,Cuddapah-Cuddapah and Rajampeta,Chittoor-Chittoor and Tirupati) and hence will witness ysr wave.
In 4 and 5 too BJP is Not A Major Player.
6. Tirupati(I was Born and Brought up here). This is A Reserved Constituency. With Chiru declaring that He would contest the Tirupati Assembly Constituency, Politics have Spiced up a Lot in this region. AMajority of slum dwellers who have been voting for congress would Vote for PRP this time round and TDP will be a big loser and so would congress in Tirupati Parliamentary Constituency and in a Majority of The Assembly segments. In Addition, TDP is facing infighting in this region as Chandragiri seat is given to Actress Roja(who is now TDP Mahila Morcha President), while chandra babu naidu’s brother has expressed his deisre to contest from here and fought fiercely for the seat.Further, Roja has Acquired a bad name for foul mouthing Chiru and leaving No stone left unturened to Target Chiru and His family members on personal front.
Congress, will face a waterloo here as their MP , P Chinta Mohan is unaccessable to Common Man and he is unrepentant for being so.
BJP Won this seat in ’99 and in ’98 when BJP Contested alone, BJP’s
Candidate came a decent third. He is former IAS Officer. However, due to PRP, BJP may not find it easy this time in Tirupati Lok Sabha Constituency. However, Cross Voting in Urban Tirupati cannot be Ruled out. But. I have to mention here that Even with Cross Voting in favour of BJP Candidate in Urban Tirupati, BJP would Not Win this Parliamentary seat.
7. Chittoor, This has Now become a SC Reserved seat. Therefore, Old Horses cant be fielded. Chittoor has traditionally been a congress stronghold, but presence of Chandra Babu Naidu who fights elections from kuppam which is an assembly segment in Chittoor parliamentary constituency has turned tables in favour of TDP in recent years. Etry of Chiru’s PRP will change a lot of equations and would upset The AppleCart of both TDP and congress in Chittoor Parliamentary constituency and ofcourse even more so in the assembly segments.
Thus, like Anantapur, Chittoor would see a fierce tricorner contest.
BJP again is Not a player here
8. Hindupur: This should be The Most Watched Out C onstituency for BJP Supporters. This would witness a four cornered contest between BJP, TDP, PRP and congress.
BJP has done a Great Ground Work here since 2003 and Their Candidate, a Former Telugu Actor is now The Adopted Son of Hindupur. Further, This Constituency has a Vibrant muslim Population and has Polarized the society.True, Entry of Chiru and Launching of balakrishna from Hindupur has diluted the polarization, but the same can be said of both the communities and Not just The Hindu community. Also, Balakrishna’s routine filmy dialogues and filmy gestures are becoming boring and the enthusiasm is lost. In Addition, Balakrishna has expressed his desire to contest assembly seat and Not lok Sabha seat as he is eyeing the CM’s Chair(which would Only remain a Dream for him). Hence, BJP should carry on the micromanagent in this Particular Constituency and channelize all Their Energy and give a good Fight and if Proper efforts are put, BJP can in fact spring a Surprise from here and Not only Win Hindupur Parliamentary constituency but also win 3 out of 7 assembly segments in this constituency.
February 14th, 2009 at 12:59 PM
yes Dear Ritesh, There is a Likely Possibility.of that happening in Telangana.
February 14th, 2009 at 1:49 PM
Hi Raj,
How many assembly seats BJP can win from Ap-Telangana.
February 14th, 2009 at 2:42 PM
Well,about 25 Assembly Segments, but if BJPO Wins 7 Lok Sabha Seats, then BJP would Win about 35 Assembly Seats in Telangana(In The Best possible case) since, Assembly would vote in the same fashion as Parliament in Telangana region this time.
February 14th, 2009 at 2:44 PM
BJP has a Good Chance of Winning about 35-45 Assembly seats in AP this time(ofcourse A Large Chunk in Telangana)
February 14th, 2009 at 2:52 PM
Hi Raj,
How many assembly seats BJP can win from Ap-Telangana.
I am not talking about not talking about. talking about (AP -Telangana)
February 14th, 2009 at 2:55 PM
talking about (AP -Telangana) means coastal AP and Rayalaseema. assembly seats min and max
February 14th, 2009 at 3:37 PM
well, Hardly 8-10 Assembly seats
February 14th, 2009 at 3:38 PM
And 3 Lok Sabha Seats
February 14th, 2009 at 3:39 PM
one in Rayalaseema (Hindupur) Discussed above and Two in Coastal Andhra(Vsakhapatnam and Narsupur)To Win Narsapur, cross voting is Essential
February 14th, 2009 at 4:11 PM
Ah, I am Relieved. The Constituency in Coastal Andhra, from where Chiru is standing(MummidiVaram) doesnt come under Narsapur LokSabha Constituency. This is A Great News and Now, The Chances of BJP Winning from Narsupur Lok Sabha Seat are Very High!!!
February 15th, 2009 at 11:21 AM
If There is NO Respite for SriLankan Tamils, dmk-congress combine would Draw A Blank in 2009 Polls.
PMK is already contemplating to Leave UPA,They are just waiting for the poll dates to be announced. And ofcourse, until then anby money Ramdoss can mint money as Health Minister.
February 15th, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Hi Raj,
MDMK may come with BJP. Vailko and Advani had meeting in Delhi.
Advani should raise this matter in TN in a big way. Will it be beneficial to BJP.
February 15th, 2009 at 1:23 PM
Have to be seen. But, certainly in Central Districts of TamilNadu, Vaiko does hold His Grip. I cant say it would help BJP in A Big Way. However, BJP-DMDK-MDMK Alliance will be Quite Formidabble.
February 15th, 2009 at 9:44 PM
AIADMK-MDMK-CPM-CPI alliance is going to win almost all seats from TN this time .PMK may also join with them…BJP needs some allies even to win strongholds like Nagercoil and Coimbatore this time.
February 16th, 2009 at 7:18 AM
In TamilNadu Situation is still fluid.
until The Last moment, we cant say who is with whom. Except that Congress -DMK and AIADMK-Left Alliance is in tact.
MDMK,PMK Are Fence Sitters.
In Addition, VCK(Viduthalai Chiruthigal Katchi) also known as Dalit Panthers of India would play a crucial role in central districts of TamilNadu, Particularly in The Chidambaram(Reserved) Parliamentary constituency.
BJP Needs DMDK as a Partner, but, DMDK is The Most Confused Party in TN. Further, Captain Vijaykanth’s silence except for a One Day Token Fast in October on Srilankan Tamil Issue has depleted His Vote Base.
The Return of Marans back to DMK Fold and Temporary settlement of Rivalry between The Two sons of karunanidhi(alagiri and stalin) may help DMK atleast in Chennai-Arcot Divisions.
It also seems that Sharath Kumar’s AISMK is planning an Alliance with DMK-Congress combine. This would Hurt BJP in Kanniyakumari as AISMK is eating into BJP’s Nadar Vote Bank and might help DMK.
However, as of Date BJP-DMDK Alliance Cant be Ruled out.
With more than a month available for Alliances to be Finalized. Nothing can be Ruled Out in Indian Politics, particularly in a state like TN.
February 16th, 2009 at 7:32 AM
Sujay, One Cant Rule out Palghat from BJP.
Further this time round, one need not work for the defeat of commies, as commies would defeat themselves. The Two Factions will work against each other and Hence in Regions, BJP is Strong, BJP need not conspire with UDF to Defeat commies.
February 16th, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Good News : BJP is Concentrating on South India for Lok Sabha Polls and there is Special Focus on Areas where BJP has a High Chances of Winning as Per Venkaiah Naidu. Recieved This Information from AndhraRajakeeyam.com
Most Likely Venkaiah Naidu will oversee the Electioneering in AP And Andhra Pradesh
February 16th, 2009 at 10:27 AM
* I mean, AP and Karnataka
February 16th, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Well Raj, Sujay
I have been following allo of you on south also.
On the basis of your information and my analysis I came up with following strategies for South in three sections with conjunctions:
AP (Telangana & Remaining Andhra)
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka
In tamil Nadu, from your observations,
BJP looks to be in winning possibility in 3 seats
Kanniyakumari, South Chennai, Ramanathapuram
BJP should concentrate on these seats first and in any alliance arrangement should not concede these seats to any other party.
There should be strong winnable candidates in these seats.
Also BJP seems to have some influence in Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Tenkasi, Dharmapuri, PuduKottai, Tiruchirappali, Pondicherry.
BJP should try to get these seats also in seat-distribution if any alliance is forged.
The parties available for alliance for BJP & their vote % in last assembly election:
DMDK (8.5%)
DPI or VCK & Dr S. Swamy’s Janta Party (1.5%)
As you have rightly observed PMK & MDMK (6% in assembly elections) are fence sitters & have not taken any position.
Out of them, PMK should be avoided because people like Ambumoni Ramdoss irks many people even in north and he will be big problem in running Central Govt due to his controversial acts.
Vaiko’s MDMK is a good option for BJP as Vaiko has been always appreciative of Vajpayeeji and recently he had joined with Advaniji in New Delhi over SriLankan issue. Also Vaiko has never created any problem for any govt of allies either NDA or UPA.
Actually, BJP should took up plight of Tamils (Indian origin) out of India everywhere as a wider issue, not only SriLanka (but refrain from supporting LTTE). If you remember, an year back there was too much news of attrocities over Hindus (mostly Tamils) in Malaysia (SE Asia).
As DMK is ally to Congress Central Govt and its record of protecting Tamils all over outside India is dismal, so DMK culdn’t use this issue. while AIADMK is already allergic to such issues and Ms. Jayalalitha even went to the extent of justifying acts of Sri Lankan Army/Govt.
this is the point, which is actually distancing MDMK away from it, recent postures of Vaiko.
This is the correct opportunity for BJP, to take this issue in a larger context of Hindutva – Tamil security and rights. This will also bridge the wrong intentional differences created between Hindus & Dravid Tamils, which suits BJP’s inclusivist Hindutva ideology- Tamils Dravidians as an integral part of Hindutva. This issue can give a major break to BJP in TN as there is vaccum on this issue because DMK-Cong. as a ruling state & central party could not speak much and AIADMK has already taken opposite stand.
In last assembly election BJP got 2%+ votes, becuse it was assembly election and BJP was fighting alone with BJP, so many BJP voters didn’t voted or voted for other party winning candidate. So, I estimate they had a vote share of 4-5%, but this can be realised only through right alliance and contesting hopeful seats.
So, BJP should forge alliance with BJP(4-5%) + DMDK (8.5%) + MDMK (6%) + DPI (1.5%) + JP = 20-21% approx.
and BJP should contest at least 10 ( 3 strong seats & 7 other inflential seats, I listed) or max. 12 seats.
Thus, NDA should start with 20% + votes and cross 25% mark.
BJP should not ally with AIADMK at all.
BJP should try to rope in R ajnikant for campaigning, becuse he is opposed to Jayalalitha and NDA without AIADMK will suit him.
BJP should ally with Janta Party, though iot does not much vote share of its own, but Dr. Subramanyam Swami will be a vibrant campaigner for NDA in TN.
He should be fielded from Madurai seat, a 90% urban seat and from where he won earlier in 1998.
Proposed candidates for 3 strong seats:
Ramanathapuram – Thiru S Thirunavakarasar
Kanniyakumari – P. Radhakrishnan
For Chennai South, which has a high Brahmin population, urban area with good colonies and educated classes. I also suppose the North Indians- Gujarathis, Marwaris, Punjabis, Teluguites of Chennai reside in this area and have a substantial vote share.
So I want to suggest who is Tamilian Brahmin married to North indian Punjabi, charismatic, popular attractive, Hindi film actress and BJP woman leader and her name is any guesses.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Vikas Ji, PUDUKOTTAI got Disappeared in Delimitation. It is because of This that BJP has Winnability in Ramanathapuram, since Aranthangi which was earlier a part of Puddukottai Parliamentary constituency has Now become part of Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Constituency.
Also, BJP has A Chance of Winning Ramanathapuram if and Only if S. Thirunavakarasar is fielded from here as He is The Most Respected Man and The Most Popular Man in Aranthangi(70% of Aranthangi would vote for S Thirunavakarasar even if He stands as an Independent). In Addition, BJP has a Base in Communally Polarised Ramanathapuram and Mudukkalattur.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:05 PM
In Pondicherry, it is Hard to Break The Consolidation of Congress.
If Congress fields The Former CM of Pondicherry, who resigned last sept/october, then more than 70% of Pondicherry would vote for Him.
I am Not exaggerating. With PMK likely to pull out of UPA, I wont be surprised if Congress fields Their Candidate from Pondicerry
However, Fielding a Candidate in Pondicherry is a Prestige issue for BJP.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:17 PM
Vikas Ji, even in TN, PMK is considered as a Party of Jokers.
Even Strong BJP Loyalists Would Not vote for BJP in TN,if BJP Forges an Alliance with PMK. And this would only Strengthen the unrelaible and Troublesome Jayalalithaa.
DMDK appears to be The Most Innoculous and Potential Ally for BJP.
The Dalit Parties Dont have unity amongst themselves.
Also, as in AP, The Dalits are NOT united in TN. infact,t here is strong acrimony among the sub sects of dalits.
The Two Prominent Dalit Leaders in TN, Thol Thirumavalavan and Dr. Krishnaswamy Dont see an Eye to Eye with each other. In Addition, They are against Mayawati and Dont accept BSP’s formula of uniting Dalits with Brahmins.
Thatz the reason, despite, strong Anti Brahminist movement in the sixties, TN hasnt seen any strong Dalit Leader and in fact TN Ranks High amongst atrocities to Dalits(by OBCs) among the southern states.
What is ironical is that both dalits and their oppressors, Thevars vote for the same Party, AIADMK. Infact, these two form the core of AIADMK’s(Jayalalithaa’s Party’s) Vote Bank in The Southern Districts.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Alo, The Dalit Parties Wont forge an alliance with BJP.
They would just act as spoiler.
However, this time around, they may ally with AIADMK led Grand Alliance.
PMK too is likely to join Jaya Bandwagon.
MDMK may Remain with Jaya or ma opt for BJP depending on how things are cooking up.
Dr. Subramanian Swamy is again unreliable. Dont forget The infamousTea Party Hosted by Dr. Subramanian Swamy in ’99.
Though He commands Respect, He is A Joker in TN Politics.
In ’96 He campaigned for the ouster of Jayalalithaa. Soon thereafter, by september ’96 He Joined hands with JJ for Chennai Mayoral Polls to Help Former IAS Officer V S Chandralekha become Mayor(Incedentally, it was The Acid Attack on V S Chandralekha, Then TIDCO,TamilNadu Industrial Development Corporation Chairperson, which prompted Dr. Subramanian Swamy to launch a Tirade against JJ in mid Nineties).
He was Instrumental in Bringing Down Vaajpayee’s Govt. in ’99 and accused RSS as a communal organization. He sided with Sonia maino then and is now leading a crusade against her.
Seriously, Dr. Subramanian Swamy needs some help.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:39 PM
You are Absolutely Right Vikas Ji.
Last time, Dr. Subramanian Swamy wanted a Key Portfolio and He wasnt offered. That irked Him.
He should be probably given a Heavy Cabinet Birth. or, a Ministry has to be created for Him, like Ministry of Planning and Disaster Management. He Deserves, above all He is A Graduate from Indian Institute of Statistics, Kolkatta and Harvard.
If MDMK Joins BJP Alliance then Care should be Taken that Dr. Subramanian Swamy and Vaiko dont share a Dias. They Hold Diametrically Opposite views on Ealam.
If NDA in TN Consistes of BJP+DMDK+MDMK+Dr.Subramanian Swamy+ Dalit Parties, Then; The DalitParties which do Not have A Symbol should be made to contest under JD(U)’s Arrow Symbol.
In 2004, Both Thirumavalavan and Dr. Krishnaswamy contested under JD(U)’s Symbol as their respective parties are Not registered Political Parties with Election Commission.
And Yes, BJP Should Romp in Rajnikanth. NDA Minus AIADMK (Read Jayalalithaa) is what Rajnikanth wants and ofcourse for Both Rajnikanth and Vijaykanth,PMK is A Big NO NO
I personally wish, Latha Rajnikanth(Rajnikanth’s wife) contest as on BJP’s Symbol against Dayanadhi Maran from Central Chennai, A DMK Bastion.
If This Happens, BJP has Hit Bull’s Eye in TN and DMK would be Decimated.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:39 PM
Thanks for correcting me over Pudukottai-Ramanathapuram.
Well I suppose because though there is Congress stronghold but no regional party can pose challenge there however owing to Vanniyar population, PMK also claims upport here but PMK should not be included in NDA at all. However DMK has some base there but it is likely to support Congress candidate, further strengthening it. I suppose PMK will join AIADMK-left camp and contest Pondicherry.
As Pondicherry is a Union Territorry, here Lok Sabha are stakes. Therefore no regional party DMDK/MDMK/DPI/JP should be alloted this seat in NDA. Only national party BJP should fight it out with other national party Congress. I had no far hopes of BJP winning there but even if they secured II position over PMK, it may lead them to the position of principal opposition party in future in Pondicherry assembly.
Well you have not made any guesses about Chennai south candidate, I left hints in previous communication.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:42 PM
Vaiko is Actually A Nice Man.
When karunanidhi stated in 2006 that his government is “by Non Brahmins of Non Brahmins and for Non Brahmins”, Vaiko was The First and Only Person to Ridicule karunanidhi.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:43 PM
Also, Vaiko is The Only Leader from The Dravidian Movement to condemn karunanidhi’s Anti Hindu statements
February 16th, 2009 at 12:53 PM
in NDA in TN, BJP Should Fight from 10 Constituencies(also, a tactical understanding with AIADMK is needed, for instance, in constituencies where, BJP has high winnability as in Coimbatore, AIADMK should leave the seat to communists,also Nagercoil seat is currently with commies, since Nagercoil has disappeared post delimitation and Instead, Kanniyakumari has come in it’s place, ADMK should leave this to commies and ADMK cadres can then secretly help BJP, same in Ramanthapuram, leave this to communists, Cho’s Help should be Taken and infact, He being A Master Strategist can help this happen, ofcourse post elections commies will cry foul, but who cares for them anyway).
he alit Parties can field 2 under JD(U) Symbol.
1 for Dr. Subramanian Swamy
10 for MDMK(His Voratory skills will come in Handy)
and reamaining 17 for DMDK
Also BJP should get full backing of Kongu Vellala Gounder community.With A Strong 6% Votebase, They will be Instrumental in deciding The Fate of Candidates in North Western TamilNadu and can effectively counter PMK.
Having Vaiko and Captain in the same alliance is Doubly Beneficial as The Entire Telugu Community(Naidu’s) who constitute 14% of TN Votebank would vote for NDA as both Vaiko and Captain Telugu Naidus.
February 16th, 2009 at 12:56 PM
I think I made it clear that BJP Should Field Krishnamachari Srikanth from Chennai.
February 16th, 2009 at 1:02 PM
Vikas Ji are You Speaking of Kamal Hassan?
February 16th, 2009 at 1:07 PM
Vikas Ji, in Chennai, Marwaris and Gujaratis are actually in North Chennai. South Chennai Consists of Brahmins and some Some Punjabi Community and other Decent Upper Middle Class.
The Reason BJP Could Not Win South Chennai in ’98 was(Though it was a close fight), Tambaram and Alandur which are now part of Kanchipuram(Res) constituency were Assembly segments in South Chennai.
Tambaram has a Huge Christian Population while Alundur is a lower middle class residential area.
Hence, BJP could not win South Chennai then.
Now, post delimitation, it is advantage BJP here.
February 16th, 2009 at 1:07 PM
No no from South Chennai
I said BJP woman leader , who is a Tamil Brahmin married to North indian Punjabi, charismatic, popular attractive, Hindi film actress- Dream Girl. Enough hints
February 16th, 2009 at 1:14 PM
Hema Malini
hahahaha
But she is Basically from Tirunalveli
February 16th, 2009 at 1:16 PM
Not A Bad Choice, since South Chennai has a History of electing Non Locals like R. Venkataraman in ’77 and ’80.
VaijayantiMala(The Famous Bollywood Queen And The First Actress from South to Establish herself in Bollywood) in 84,89.
Incedentally, Both are Brahmins
February 16th, 2009 at 1:23 PM
And Regarding Kongu Vellala Gounders:
For BJP it is Not dificul to Attract Kongu Vellala Gounders Votes as BJP Leader and former Coimbatore MP, C P Radhakrishnan is from This Community and also, Kongu Vellala Gounders in Recent Years have Enrolled as RSS Members in The Western Ghats.
February 16th, 2009 at 1:28 PM
Therefore, The Brahmin + Kongu Vellala Gounder + Telugu Naidus + sme Dalit Factions if Materializs) will be a very formidable Alliance, even without Dalit Groups, this would constitue over 20% of vote base
February 16th, 2009 at 2:49 PM
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Muslim+leaders+seek+BJP+support+to+defeat+MIM&artid=aKSunufVzRc=&SectionID=e7uPP4|pSiw=&MainSectionID=fyV9T2jIa4A=&SectionName=EH8HilNJ2uYAot5nzqumeA==&SEO=
Raj ur comments
February 16th, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Vikas/ Raj
The Hindu, the south catholic paper hardly writes anything good about BJP, but this is what they have written about BJP’s Vizag candidate before his candidature was announced..
http://www.hindu.com/2008/10/13/stories/2008101358750300.htm
February 16th, 2009 at 2:56 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
In my selection of candidates, I had not gone for the criterion totally, rather I had focussed on personality criterion.
As you have rightly pointed the pro & anti incumbency behaviour always in TN earlier, but this time the situation is fluid and there are also no parallel assembly elections too, which opens an opportunity for new alternative.
So, in such a case candidate, combinatios, local issues and over all Sri Lankan Tamils issue will play a great role.
The alliance objective is to only look winnable in election otherwise party’s own votes go to other winning party candidates or they don’t vote at all.
February 16th, 2009 at 3:10 PM
In Tamil Nadu, the way is to success in politics is hard work – not caste, ideology etc.
[disclaimer: i am not saying that TN poltics is good, but the comments are based on history]
In TN the politics is personality based and not party based, that is the simple reason Karuna is not succeed by his son salin, i cannot imagine ADMK without Jaya. This is the most important factor.
Secondly political probation is a must in TN politics, MGR was in politics for 10 yrs before he became CM, same with Jaya and it will be the same with Vijayakant.whereas in AP NTR could win elections after 6 months of starting his party, Chiru is making some imapct within 4 months of his party formation…
If BJP has to do well in TN then for entry into TN Raniji may be the answer for personality based politics but to build a sustainable cadre base the RSS in Tamil Nadu should become less of a Brahmin organisation…
The RSS in TN is Sanskrit centric for obvious reasons, it has to understand the importance of religion and Tamil and hence promote Tamil based Hinduva, which will make it a acceptable organisation for the masses.
February 16th, 2009 at 3:48 PM
Well, BJP Should Support on One Condition : He should Contest on JD(U) Symbol, since BJP Symbol may be unacceptable. In Turn, BJP Can assure Him to Make A Minister. Today, Ironical it may Sound, but, ordinary Muslims in Hyderabad are Extremely unhappy with MIM.
Also, BJP should get assurance That Muslims Vote for BJP Candidate, Sirajunnisa Begum(Haj Committe Vice Chairperson,a Muslim Female Candidate) who lost in Yakutpura Last time.Surprisingly, BJP has Not yet announced it’s candidate from Hyderabad.This would be Advantageous for BJP.
PS: Getting Rid of MIM in Hyderabad is Essential.
But, BJP Should Not give away The Seat just like that. Asure Zahid Ali Full Support with a Hitch that He Contests The Elections on JD(U) Symbol.In That case, He Technically becomes JD(U) Candidate and Has to draw the party line.
February 16th, 2009 at 3:52 PM
Dear Arun, if The Hindu writes Anything Bad about Sri D V Subba Rao, Then, They would Lose Circulation in Visakhapatnam.That’s the reason, they could only praise Him. still, The Hindu(which is actually The MOST Anti-Hindu Newspaper)wants Him to be out of BJP, which ofcourse Wont Happen.
February 16th, 2009 at 3:58 PM
But Dear LKADVANI.IN/Arun, Caste Factor and Emotional Issues too cannot be Ruled out in TN Politics.
And You are Right in Distinguishing between AP and TN, when it comes to influence of Movie Stars in Politics down south.
February 16th, 2009 at 4:10 PM
I was fllowing A Disucssion on LKADVANI.IN on how can BJP improve in AP.
Someone pointed out : I dont understand Why there is such a Huge Influence of Movie Stars in Politics Down South.
This is Not completely True.
In Karnataka and Kerala Movie Stars weild Influence to the same extent as In Any other State, I mean, very little and locally if any, limited Only to Their Constituency.
Now let us take TN:
1. for Annadurai and Karunanidhi, Their Political career started way before Their Film Career(Both were Script Writers)
2. for MGR, His Political Career Ran Parallelly with His Film Career
3. Jayalalithaa was long forgotten as an actress by The time She entered direct Electoral Race and had experieince as a Rajya Sabha MP for 4 years before contesting 1989 Assembly Elections.
4. for Captain Vijaykanth too, it has Not been A CakeWalk. No One Ever said, He would Sweep The Polls when He launched His Party. Also, even before He launched His Party ofcially, He encouraged Organizational Secratries of His Fan Clubs to contest panchayat and ward elections in 2001 as Independents.
5. Sharath Kumar,Who would weild Influence in select pockets(Nadar Dominated Souther Districts such as Kanniyakumari), has been in Politics ever since He Joined Tamil Film Industry. He was in Both ADMK and DMK before rejoining ADMK on the eve of 2006 Polls only to quit later and form His Own political outfit.
whereas in AP, NTR, A Political Novice Stormed into Office within 9 Months of Launching The Party. And There are Talks of Chiru Making it Big.
I will explain The Reasons in The Following Communication.
February 16th, 2009 at 4:20 PM
For Chiru, The Impact is Predicted to be Huge for One Primary Reason :
Kaapus(Chiranjeevi’s caste) constitute about 18% of AP Population and yet There has Not been A Single Kappu CM of AP till Date. This is The Biggest Advantage for Chiru.Most of Them are in The Coastal Areas and also Kappus are relatively backward though They come under OC(unreserved)
In The case of NTR, it was completely Different. There was a Political Vaccum then. There was NO Major Political Force besides Congress and congress was Highly Centralized. The Popularity and Mass Base of The Leaders were Never the matter of concern is choosing who would be AP CM but sycophancy to Nehru Family was. Every Issue was decided in Delhi and The Government was a mere puppet.
Rajiv Gandhi Abused The CM , Tanguturi Anjaiah as He didnt recieve Rajiv Gandhi at Hyderabad Airport in Person and sought his dismissal as CM. This Incedent was utilized by NTR as Hitting on Telugu Pride and That One Slogan sought Him to Fame and made Him a Political Heavy weight from a Novice.
What added to NTR’s Advantage was : Media, Yes, The Local Telugu Newspaper.
Eenaadu was The Only Major Newspaper then and in Addition there was Andhra Jyothi, as Both were Owned by Kammas(NTR’s Caste), They made things easy for NTR. They wrote Editorials and printed Cartoons on Non Functioning of congress And Highlighted NTR’s Charisma.
Also, NTR made full use of his acting skills in real life.
All this gave huge advantage to TDP Then.
February 16th, 2009 at 4:26 PM
* in Choosing
February 16th, 2009 at 4:27 PM
And what Happened to Ritesh?
His Arguments and Enthusiasm appear Cute
February 16th, 2009 at 5:24 PM
BJP should not support any Muslim candidate independent rather allow hi to fight with trs-tdp-prp-LEFT SUPPort and field its own Hindu candfidate in 3 corneer contest, with other 2 muslim candidates.
February 16th, 2009 at 9:18 PM
Hi Raj and Vikas,
BJP should fight 50% seats of TN parliament. If BJP is going less than 50%. It will be blunder of BJP. Main aim of BJP should to create in base in
TN. Do not worry, If BJP needs Jaya, Jaya will come and she will touch
Advaniji’s feet, she would say,”i want to support Advaniji,please accept my
support”. Same will happen with TDP,TRS,PRP,TMC.
I am saying this sentence seriously. Small parties are not having any future without BJP or Congress.If immediately again election takes place,
It will be major loss to small parties(Which are not part of BJP and Congress).
TDP,TRS,PRP,TMC,AIADMK will have to support BJP. They are not having any other option. If you feel let me know. Do you feel RAJ and Vikas.
February 16th, 2009 at 11:45 PM
To all the people here , I have been following this thread and I have been reading that you people feel BJP can get 10 seats in AP . But I met Laxman today and he was not at all optimistic and he said in Telanagana they have to get into an alliance with some party or else BJP stands no chance. Please respond as no one in Telangana is taking BJP seriously.
February 17th, 2009 at 3:38 AM
Dear Adi.let’s wait till 21st Febrauary and see The Response to Telangana Vijay Sankalp Yatra in KarimNagar which would be Addressed by Modi Ji.
February 17th, 2009 at 3:43 AM
Vikas Ji, I have Only Spoken of A Possibility. In Case, if BJP Decides to support Zahid Ali, The Editor of Siasat, then, BJP should force him to contest as JD(U) Candidate or else ask him to face the consequence.
February 17th, 2009 at 3:56 AM
I concur with Vikas Ji that BJP shold NEVER Ever make The Mistake of supporting an Independent Muslim Candidate.
If They cant get the assurance of other parties when contested on JD(U) Symbol, how can They expect Hindu’s support. Hindu’s Vote is for A Non Anti-Hindu Government at The Centre.
Also, This is The Most Ideal Situation for BJP to Win Hyderabad Parliamentary constituency, if Zahid Ali refuses to contest on JD(U) Symbol
February 17th, 2009 at 12:53 PM
@Raj,
You said Andhra Jyothy supported NTR! The thing you missed is, Andhra Jyothy is bought by a Kamma – Radha Krishna in the year 2002. Before that it used to support Congress.
February 17th, 2009 at 1:16 PM
okay Ram.
I am Sorry.
I didnt know about The History of This Paper.
Recently I found that, Andra Jothy too turned out as a mouth piece for TDP . And I thought, it was frm the beginning, A Pro TDP Paper.
Though, m First Language is Telugu and I was born and brough up in Tirupati, I cant Read and Write Telugu, Courtesey of my Schooling in KV. We had Only Hindi and English
February 17th, 2009 at 1:27 PM
Ritesh, BJP Cant fight 20 Seats in TN and Pondicherry put together.
In Places like Cudalore, Villupuram, Kanchipuram(Res), Tiruvottiyur, Vellore, BJP Would even find it hard to find a candidate.
Alliances are Quite Essential for BJP and Without Alliances, it’s quite Hard in Places other than Ramanathapuram, South Chennai, Kanniyakumari, Coimbatore, Dharmapuri, Sivaganga and Tiruchirapally even to give a decent fight.
With Strong Alliances (Vaiko and Captain), BJP Can win a majority of these seats.
Alliances(Cold Arithmatic) have a lot of significance in today’s politics, particularly in TN.
Alliance between BJP , Vaiko and Captain is beneficial for All The Partiess as Vaiko’s Oratory Skills can be fully taken advantage of.
He cant have a free hand if He remains in Jaya Bandwagon.
With Left already in Kitty and PMK waiting till the Last moment to switch sides, Vaiko would be given only a few Seats if he remains with ADMK.Also, Jaya would rein him and wont let him go loose.
If e joins NDA , He would have more seats and also would be given a free Hand.
However, BJP and MDMK alone is NOT Feasible in a state like TN. Hence, in TN, Both Vaiko and Captain have to Join NDA.
This Alliance has a potential to come close to ADMK Alliance.
In That case BJP should Fight(14+1 of Pondicherry), 10 for MDMK and 15 for DMDK of Captain VijayKanth. If Dr. Subramanian Swamy Decides to Join NDA then Madurai seat can be left for Him and any one of The Three players should be Ready to accomodate Dr. Subramanian Swamy.
February 17th, 2009 at 3:03 PM
BJP should not plkan for even post-election relationship with AIADMK because after joining Govt. Jayalalitha will do daily drama on different issues endless demands damaging image of Government
and most troubling her perennial demand to terminate TN’s DMK Govt without any substantial reason unconstitutionally, which BJP a honest Democratic party and true believer of Federalism will not do and also due to short of majority in Rajya Sabha.
Another big problem she will create will be KAVERI water dispute with Karnataka, she will ask for ingeuine share, which will badly hurt BJP in its only South India stronghold Karnataka.
and also Kaveri is a big issue specially in Vokkalinga dominated South Karnataka (old Mysore) region, where BJP is traditionally weak now it is try to establish it there. Conceding to TN on Kaveri issue over Jayalalitha pressure will weaken BJP here and give an issue to JD(S) & Congress who are already strong here.
For TN BJP should draw long term programmes in association with Vaiko’s MDMK, Captain’s DMDK and with sympathsisers like Rajnikant create its own base.
February 17th, 2009 at 3:12 PM
Vikas and all,
TN is a different ball game, it is one place in the country where RSS is literally unknown. I think BJP is much better placed to dominate state affairs in Kerala and AP. For as far as this election, i guess BJP should spend the least in TN.
Jaya is not the Jaya of 1999( PM ambitions), she now realises the importance of BJP as a national ally, because the TN congress has become a sister organisation to DMK. She aligned with left only to weaken the UPA.
February 17th, 2009 at 4:00 PM
Dear Arun, One can Never Rely on Jayalalithaa.
only a secret Deal between Jaya and BJP should be Worked out in Coming Polls.
What adds to this is that, Communists and BJP eye the same Seats in Lok Sabha from TN.
For Instance, in The current Lok Sabha, Nagercoil(Which would Hencefort become Kanniyakumari, Post Delimitation), Coimbatore, Madurai(where BJP should leave for Dr. Subramanaina Swamy) are with communists and so, the commies would renominate their sitting MPs.
Other seats, the commies would seek iwould be Nagapattinam(a christian and Muslim Dominated constituency, here again the sitting MP is a commie), Ramanathapuram, Tirupur( Commies wont be allotted more than 6 seats from TN in Any Alliance). Interestingly, with the exception of Nagapattinam, BJP has stakes elsewhere(NOT so Strong in Tirupur, even in Alliance with DMDK and Vaiko).
So, it would be A BJP Vs Commies fight in these Constituencies.
February 17th, 2009 at 4:02 PM
Why Jaya Alligned with Left for 2009 Polls?
With BJP, Jaya may Not have any other party as Ally
The Left was vying for DMDK, DMDK Left Alliance would Damage AIADMK more than DMK. Reason : Both DMDK and Left parties are Strong in Those Regions which are considered as ADMK’s Strongholds.
February 17th, 2009 at 8:11 PM
Hi,
BJP is future. BJP is not ordinary party. Unluckly BJP is weak in TN, WB,
Keala, AP. One day BJP will get strong support in these region. BJP should not compromise with own base in these states(TN, WB,
Keala, AP.).
February 18th, 2009 at 2:15 AM
Regarding AP and Telangana I can give you segment by segment by analysis but then who knows how one is going to vote that day. but when you look at it overall and also consider the Biggest survey(elections in 16 seats which can be called mother of all surveys) in telangana with more than 16 lakh votes taking part (No survey ever polls that many even nation wide) there is a 3 way split in telangana for TDP, COngress and TRS each having 25 to 35 percent votes in each and every constituency.
So even the worst case scenario is that at any place TRS TDP + have anything like 55 percent vote bank to start with and congress has something around 30 percent. pegging it at 35(say a few who make money while sun shines may influence about 5 percent of the voters) at best it would be 35 to 40 percent maximum.
Now enters Chiru. Traditionally NTR fans have been with TDP and also castes that support TDP dont go with chiru. But giving him his due say he cuts equally into TDP+ and congress then it would be like at least 35 to 40 percent for TDP combine and 20 to 25 percent for congress and around 15 to 25 (how much this is going to be will be crucial for success of chiru but beaing the TDP combine for him is going to be gargantuan task.
BJP seems to be a non starter this time bcuz traditionally bjp had stong support in Telangana. But come TRS and most of them except the top leaders have jumped into TRS as BJP was siding with then anti telangana TDP. Now BJP cann’t digest the fact that TDP is supporting the casue of telangana and abusing TRS publicly but that is going to harm BJP more than TRS. Eventually in recent MLC elections Congress Supported BJP in Hyd-kmm-wgl to defeat TRS. COmmies didnt campaign and TDP was silent. Still TRS polled whoppoing 65 percent of graduate votes. BJP with support of Congress only got 25 percent. In Hyd + MLC seat Congress supported Commies to defeat BJP as there was no TRS canditate there and BJP candidate lost there narrowly with 250 votes.
The final outcome would be except for some miracle happens, and a clairvoyant voice tells people to vote chiru enmasse(even his caste is meagre in telangana) he could be only helping TDP combine to win and defeat the congress.
TRS,TDP could as well win 80 to 100+ seats.
congress anything from single digit to over a 10
PRP same (if luck has it it could get 10 to 20
BJP anything in single digit close to ten (especially around hyd).
In rest of Andhra it is going to be three way fight but still if people of andhra vote tactically like they did in 2004 so that TRS wouldn’t command the ruling govt then TDP would have an advantage , even of a couple of seats. In 177 seats. TDP could get anything from 45 to over 70.
If TDP gets the lower side in telangana (of course the combine) like 80 and only 50 in Andhra thy still have aabout 125 to 135. With PRP and congress breaking the other 160 amongh themselves it could be a hung. but most probably scenario is TRS, TDP combine getting anything in the range of 140 plus to 170.
LOK SABHA :
In telangana there are 17 seats. 3 in hyd. BJP would get for sure 2 seats. (N Indrasena reddy going to win over PRP ,NTP Devendar goud and some similar goud that TDP is going to put up in medchal new sat). Secbad BJP more chance. In Hyderabad if all parties support suitable candidate then it could be either that candidate of BJP (MIM going to trounced this year).
Remaining seats are 14.
it could be 0-2 for CPI and M, 6 to 9 for TRS and 2 to 4 for TDP.
In andhra even with a trhree way split of votes of the 25 they have TDP could end up with 8 to 16.
Total TDP TRS could have something like 15 to 28 seats and they would be supporting the NDA combine in next elections.
BJP would have total at lest 20 at minimum to 30(most probably) to supports its government at the center.
February 18th, 2009 at 2:21 AM
Once Telangana is formed.
Telangana is going to be a bastion for BJP in coming to power
in next elections as BJP cadre which is now in TRS will push
for an alliance with BJP like in maharastra, orissa and bihar.
Then BJP would be the leading power and TRS its associate.
Once Telangana is formed TRS better concentrate in keeping congress out of power for next 20 to 30 years. And in andhra, chiru can have a ball and even join with BJP as there is not much muslim vote bank in anhra (except some places in rayalaseema, but that is not that great).
So once state of andhra is supported it is going to be a win win situation for BJP.
February 18th, 2009 at 2:28 AM
In Khammam Renuka chowdhary is going to loose heavily.
She is making a rucus about un necessary things becuase only recently son of her close follower raped a minor SC girl after abducting her for 2 weeks.
She forced the police not to book a case. But the goondaism of her chamchas is too much to bear for the people in that area.
She could as well lose by more than a lakh or so.
Venkataswamy is putting his son this year and he is going to lose.
(Venkataswamy didnt want to be put to that shame).
In Nalgonda dist, I know the candidates who are standing personally and it is really laughing stock that Chiru expects these candidates to win.
Lok satta is the joker of the pack. Somebody taking it seriously? Dont even waste your time going out to vote for Lok satta better wtch some movie than sweat unncessariliy.
So telangana PRP may be will get some votes may be 10 percent to 15 (even that is decent bcuz it will be like 10 to 20 thousand votes) at the expense of congress and not TDP.
As far as the present situation if congress has any chance in telangana it is the Hyderabad seat that too its ally MIM.
PRP at best can only spoil the chances of Congress, as like someone said Vijay kanth didn in TN affect the poll combinations.
February 18th, 2009 at 3:52 AM
Dear Raja Reddy, But, it is equally a Fact that there is YSR Wave in Rayalaseema and of the 52 seats in Rayalaseema, congress would get 40 if there is a 3 way split.
Regarding Telangana, Pedapally( G Venkataswamy) and Khammam(Renuka Choudary) are way Popular and They may retain Their seats.
In coastal Andhra(Central and Northern), PRP is making Huge strides.
The 18% Kaapu Vote is for sure would rally behind Chiru and most of them are in The Coastal Region.
I do agree, that due to the entry of PRP, congress would be relegated to third place in most of the central and north coastal AP, but, TDP would find it extremely Hard. All strong Kaapu Leaders along with Their Cadre have migrated to PRP. It is the pressure within this community because of which congress leaders like buruggedda vedavyas and vangaveeti radha had to join PRP. Shiv Shankar too joined PRP for the same reason.
In Vijayawada, Jagadapati Rajagopal may this time find it very hard.Though He is banking on Ani-Telangana votes, he as a very bad reputation and has done nothing good for the constituency.with his father in law, P Upendra joining PRP, a lot of his supporters would vote for PRP this time or may vote for TDP, since TDP is planning to field Kesineni Nani(The Owner of Kesineni Travels, Kesineni Travels operates the largest number of Volvo Buses in AP). As Kesineni Nani is an estranged kama leader from PRP and is likely to join TDP , the earlier supporters of jagadapati rajagopal would now vote for kesineni to defeat PRP Candidate. therefore,Bezawada(Vijayawada) would witness war between PRP and TDP.
February 18th, 2009 at 3:58 AM
Srikakulam, which has been traditionally Voting for TDP is likely to prove a waterloo fo TDP this time.Except for K Yerran Naidu(TDP Parliamentary Party Leader, who has been winning this seat since ’84), all other Major leaders from TDP have joined PRP.
Despite choosing the same candidate for 25 years, srikakulam is a backward, naxalite prone region. There would be Local Anti-Incumbency against him. In addition, there is mass migration of vote base to PRP. Also, The Traditional Anti-TDP Votes would this time be polled to PRP in order to defet TDP Candidates wherever possible(I am speaking with reference to central and North Coastal AP), hence, congress would be wiped off from here.In North Coastal AP, Congress would NOT Be able to win even a single Assembly Seat.
February 18th, 2009 at 3:59 AM
The Only Exception being that of Botcha Satyanarayana in Vizianagaram District.
February 18th, 2009 at 4:03 AM
oh, Its nice to see that congress is Losing
If Congress loses Khammam and Pedapally, that would be Death Knell for cvongress in Telangana!!!!
MIM has a very bad Image even amongst it’s traditional muslim voters.
MIM is bound to lose Hyderabad.
A 3 Way Contest will Only Benefit BJP
February 18th, 2009 at 4:03 AM
* I mean, in Hyderabad.
But, Why is BJP Not able to cut Ice beyond Hyderabad Region?
February 18th, 2009 at 4:05 AM
Nice Analysis Raja Reddy Gaaru
February 18th, 2009 at 5:25 AM
comedy by IBN: A Ludicrous Report —
Congress News Network-Italian Broadcasters News in a recent survey on AP States “congress would get 45% of Votes, TDP — 30%, BJP — 9%, PRP — 7% , Left — 2% and others — 7% in Lok Sabha Polls
This is A Big Joke — Congress getting 45%
However, if Lok Sabha and Assembly Polls would be Held separately,
Stating PRP would get only 7% is Extremely Foolish on Part of ibnlive. Probably They arent even aware of The Caste Demographies in AP.
While BJP would certainly Poll higher in Lok Sabha Polls then in Assembly in AP even if BJP goes Alone, PRP Wont poll a single digit Vote.
Even in The Worst case Scenario, PRP would Poll 15% of The Popular vote in Assembly and atleast 12% in Lok Sabha(The Cross voting Benefitting BJP)
February 18th, 2009 at 10:52 AM
Raj,
PRP to tie up with BJP, read the news article, it must be encouraging.
http://www.andhrarajakeeyam.com/2009/02/chiru-nudges-goud-to-tie-up-with-bjp/
February 18th, 2009 at 11:19 AM
Exactly, Dear Arun. Thatz The Reason BJP is Not planninf to contest All The Seats.
If Alliance or Poll Pact Materializes(Most Likely), BJP Should Negotiate for 15 Lok Sabha Seats with 10 in Telangana.
I was about to Post The same News here and Fortunately, Arun Ji has Poted the link.
Chiru was encountering uncomfortable questions on why PRP didnt Tie up with BJP. The Reason is, for Urban Voters, Stand on National Politis too is Quite Important.
In Telangana, with The Formation of Grand Alliance, if PRP goes alonw, they would Not make a Huge Impact. However, in Alliance with BJP(A National Party, Which has Promised The Creation of Telangana), PRP’s gesture would be recieved well.
For BJP too, The Tie up will be Handy as in Rural Areas, BJP Needs An Agressive Cadre and fill in Enthusiasm.
BJP-PRP(NTP most likely to contest on PRP Symbol)will be A Formidable Alliance atleast in 10 -12 out of 17 Lok Sabha Constituencies in Telangana and in as many as 50-60 Assembly Segments of 119.
Further, It is A Must that BJP And PRP come together.
February 18th, 2009 at 11:30 AM
In The Event of Alliance between BJP and PRP , BJP Should contest : Secunderabad, Malkajigir, Hyderabad( Move Baddam Balram Reddy from Chevella to Hyderabad Parliamentary Constituency),Karimnagar,Mehbubabad(ST),Warrangal(SC) and Zahirabad. Let the other 10 be equally divided by NTP and PRP
Also, BJP should send some of the strong candidates to Assembly.
For Insance, BJP announced Jhansi Rani, a Local Strong Candidate from Mehbubnagar Parliamentary constituency(in December, when There was NO Hope of Alliance between PRP and BJP), but, now, as a result of seat adjustment, BJP should send her to Assembly from one of the constituencies in Mehbubnagar and leave The Parliamentary seat to NTP-PRP
Similarly, as warrangal is A Reserved Constituency, give Assembly ticket to C Janga Reddy(A Strong Pro Telangana Voice, He was one of The Only Two MPs BJP had in Eighth Lok Sabha when elections were held in ’84 imediately after Indira Gandhi’s Assasination)
similarly, give tickets to local strongmen in Assembly
BJP should settle for NO less than 3o Assembly Seats in AP Assembly.
Both These demands are Reasonable and Respectable.
February 18th, 2009 at 11:32 AM
But chiru seems to be more interested in Muslim and Christian votes than the BJP votes, in yesterday’s survey by CNN IBN, it showed BJP to have more vote share (9%) than PRP (7%). A tie-up would definitely help to improve the chances of BJP in Telangana, Urban Coastal Andhra and in and around Tirupathi in Rayalseema
February 18th, 2009 at 11:34 AM
If the alliance didnot materialize then BJP contest all seats giving tickets to lot of Maala’s to cut into congress vote bank.
February 18th, 2009 at 11:37 AM
In The Rest of AP, BJP is Almost Insignificant except for Visakhapatnam, Narsapur and Hindupur Lok Sabha Constituencies.
Since BJP would add to PRP’s Strength and also give PRP a Morale boost in Telangana, BJP Should seek 5 Lok Sabha Seats in The Rest of AP – Visakhapatnam,Narsapur,Bezawada(Vijayawada),Tirupati(Res) and Hindupur.
In Assembly, beyond Telangana region, BJP has virtual Non Presence except in select urban areas in Coastal AP and some scattered seatsin Southern Rayalaseema.
Here, in Southern Rayalaseema, BJP should field Strong Leaders of BJP in The Party in Assembly.BJP can fight in about some 15 -20 Assembly Seats in AP Besides The Telangana Region.
February 18th, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Dear Arun, While BJP probably has 9% of Popular Votes(Mostly concentrated in urban areas and semi-urban areas around Hyderabad), Praja Rajyam certainly has much higher Vote Share.
Please remember, CNN is Congress News Network and They want to water down PRP’s Enthusiasm.
CNN Carried a similar ridiculous report before karnataka elections too.
as Per CNN, in TN, Others have a much higher percentage over ADMK, which is A Joke.
I could only laugh at their pathetic unprofession journalism.
February 18th, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Raj,
Plz answer my query on Uma Bharathi, in the Norrth India Battle ground forum
February 18th, 2009 at 11:55 AM
Dear Arun, without Poll Pact with PRP, BJP too would find it hard besides The Three Hyderabad Parliamentary seats and Visakhapatnam, Narsapur in Andhra.
It is A Win Win for both.
Remember, Chiru is able to sense, it’s not going to be A Cakewalk. TDP All of A Sudden has gained confidence.
Devender Goud is fighting hard to save his political career.
BJP Might be puting a bold face, but, BJP too knows The Reality that even in Telangana, BJP needs a Poll Pact besides the Three Parliamentary Constituencies in The Hyderabad region.
And Remember, This time, It’s Chiru who has taken the initiative for Negotiating the deal with BJP, hence it’s Advantage BJP.
In an era of coalations at the centre, one should have some idea of with whom they would go in The National Politics. Particularly when there are simultaneous polls.
In PRP, A Large section of Leaders including Allu Aravind(Chiranjeevi’s brother in law and the architect of chiru’s political career), Naga Babu(Chiru’s Brother) are in for Alliance with BJP as They are Huge Admirers of RSS(Nagababu told The PRP Cadres that They should be Disciplined like RSS and Heaped Praises on RSS, also Time and Again PRP has praised Gujarat Model of Development particularly on SEZ Issue). The Only one Opposing PRP’s Alliance with BJP is Dr. Mitra, however, he is being sidelined these days and Thatz good news. Ever since Communists joined TDP to form Grand Alliance, Dr. Mitra, The Political Advisor to Chiru has been Sidelined as it is seen His inability to convice The Left Join The MegaStar’s Bandwagon.
Aslo, BJP is The Only Party in AP, Whose Leaders have refrained from Passing Adverse Remarks on Chiru or PRP. To add to it all, NO BJP Leader Jumped to PRP except for Parakala Prabhakar, who anyway doesnt weild much of influence in BJP
February 18th, 2009 at 12:54 PM
Hello all!
I had promised to write my analysis for South based on the information provided overhere by many members.
I had already posted my analysis for TN & its Kaveri Karnataka connections hence suggestesd strategies for BJP. I thank all of you giving your valuable feedbacks- LKADVANI.IN, Raj et. al.
LKADVANI.IN u are right and I agree with u, that it is not easy in TN like anywhere else and a party has to do real hardwork create personalities in TN for success.
But If u read my suggestions, I had nowhere expected NDA/BJP winning handful seats there. I was only identifying potential seats from where they can start.
You really very well pointed out: hard ground work, personality, philosophy matteres most in TN.
But for then these things also, U have to start one day, U can not always escape it by alliances.
Although alliance is must required also to look genuinely in the contest but caution it should not be at the cost of potential seats (fighting only 5-6 useless seats), dislodging ideology(DMK’s extreme anti-Hidu, AIADMK’s no SriLankan Tamils sympathy), compromising party interests & growth in stong areas(Karnataka, Kaveri, AIADMK), distracting charismatic personalities from BJP (Rajnikant due to Jayalalitha).
On one point, I would like to differ on the basis of facts, that TN votes completely 100% for one party or alliance guidided by the anti-incumbency principle.
Dear if u see after 1996 no alliance has bagged all seats in LS or Assembly elections (2004 LS elections only exception, when there was a Mega alliance of DMK-Cong with TMC merged-PMK-MDMK-CPI-CPM in front of aweak incumbent AIADMK-BJP, AIADMK was ruling state and BJP at centre then).
Actually in 2006 assembly elections no party even got full majority, DMK is well short of half mark and seriously depends on Cong for its Govt. survival). Last time AIADMK lost govt. but got good no of seats, as afact if Cong leaves DMK and join AIADMK-Left-PMK combine in assembly then they will have majority to form Govt. in TN, even today.
This time in 2009, it is LS elections, no parrallel Assembly elections, there are lot of opportunities for an alternative.
SriLankan Tamils issue is big issue both DMK (bec their UPA Central Govt and state govt did actually nothing worth on this issue) and AIADMK wouldn’t use it.
MDMK & BJP can pick this issue effectively.
It may be argued that the parties MDMK-BJP-DMDK donot have their own party rather they get vote through major ally partner. But there fact t o counter it because there are instances when all these parties fought alone and exhiobited theitr true vote%
In 2001 Ass.election , MDMK fought alone and secured 6%.
In 2006 Ass.election , DMDK fought alone and secured 9%.
In 2006 Ass.election , BJP fought alone and secured 2%+. However it was assembly election BJP’s true potential cannot be weighed as BJP fought alone so it was looking totally out opf fight so many BJP voters voted for second preference other party or winning candidate or stayed away from polling. This makes me tyo estinmate a 5% vote of BJP in TN.
February 18th, 2009 at 1:17 PM
Dear Vikas Ji, You made a Great Attempt.
MDMK has A Solid 5% Vote Bank.
BJP in TN has Improved in certain Regions while got depleted in certain others. Yet,further, in 1006 Assembly Elections, Brahmins Voted for ADMK, despite The Ill Treatment of Kanchi Acarya , His Holiness Sri Jayendra Saraswati and Sri Vijeyendra Saraswati. The Reason was, Brahmins in TN are helpless and have NO Other option except to Vote Against DMK.
Even in 2001, when DMK was having an Alliance with BJPin TN, Brahmins exclusively Voted for ADMK and Not for DMK.
But, this time as Jaya has Not paired up with BJP and Instead has taken a Left Turn and is Vying PMK, Brahmins would Vote enmasse for BJP. MDMK has NOT Been Anti-Brahmin. InFact, Vaiko Strongly Reacted to karunanidhi’s anti-Brahminical statements over the past 3 years.Therefore,BJP would get The Brahmin Votes this time around. In The Southern Districts of TamilNadu, There is Increased Violance on Hindus by muslims since 2007. This has in a way Helped BJP in Communally Polarized Situation. Particularly in Ramanathapuram and Then Kasi(Reserved).
February 18th, 2009 at 1:21 PM
Vikas Ji, The Combined Vote of BJP-DMDK-MDMK-Dr.Subramanian Swamy would Exceed 20% and can reach upto 25% under Favourable Conditions.
Vaiko Single handedly Help UPA Secure 39 seats in TN through His Padayatra and Voice for Tamil Ealam.
Vaiko is being sidelined by Jaya in The Recenet past.
February 18th, 2009 at 1:29 PM
I think BJP can grow only at the cost of ADMK and not DMK. BJP has to be patient until the death of Karuna in TN, which will change the political eqns. BJP if it takes TN seriously, it will cut into ADMK vote share and would help the UPA. I am not for the victory of Jaya but for the defeat of UPA in TN, i dont want BJP to divide the anti-incumbency votes ( mainly in the OC and MBC category)
February 18th, 2009 at 1:32 PM
BJP is a potential force in AP, whereas in TN at any cost it can be a spoiler.
BJP should pray that PMK, MDMK and smaller parties should win more seats, in case of requirement of 10 seats in a post poll scenario, these parties would be ready to support BJP for some ministerial births.
February 18th, 2009 at 1:35 PM
Raj,
Subramanya swamy is a joker, MDMK and PMK will never accept him. If you think that he will bring Brahmin votes, ur wrong. Infact he is good doing what he is doing now, bashing congress. He should not find any political stronghold, which will be in the interest of the nation,
February 18th, 2009 at 1:37 PM
http://www.hindu.com/2009/02/18/stories/2009021857540100.htm
February 18th, 2009 at 1:53 PM
OK! Raj
Now I will analyse AP of course on the information available here and other sources and come with up some strategies.
This development PRP coming towards BJP thru NTP is potential and consolidating.
This will clearly consolidate AP political scenario broadly drawn between 3 groups:
BJP-PRP-NTP
TDP-TS-Left
INC-AIMIM
Before going to analysis, one analogy I would like to make which I now see coming up in near future after creation of Telangana, I see a lot of similarity in future political scenario of Telangana state with Jharkand.
Actually, what there are equal no. of relevant in Jharkhand and future Telangana state with almost same type of character, influence and vote support. Here I draw the comparison table
TELANGANA JHARKHAND Status / Role
TRS JMM Parties formed on the sole issue of new state creation and plagued with BIMARU leaders & confused alliances.
TDP RJD Earlier hard opposed new state but later aligned to party formed with aim of creation of new state TRS/JMM
LEFT LEFT Claiming to be most clean but being most criminal inside, always overlooking local people interests and identity.
INC INC Exploiting poor people adivasis, using local leaders, deploying hidden agenda, promoting missionaries terrorist/naxalite in the garb of pseudo-secularisdm, creating instality by abusing democratic constitutional institutions like Governor House.
NTP JD(U) Working as BJP ally for NDA expansion.
BJP BJP The pricipal largest party in Jharkhand, will it get the same status in AP, to be watched.
A Technical hint: In a Match the following problem, if there are 6 items one side A and six on side B and there is only a unique match. then solving for 5 matches correctly, automatically solves the sixth one both the left items on either side had to match. (Academicians & students will understand this clue).
February 18th, 2009 at 3:14 PM
correction
BJP BJP The pricipal largest party in Jharkhand, will it get the same status in AP (I mean Telangana) , to be watched.
February 18th, 2009 at 4:24 PM
hello wellwishers of india and nationalists.bjp has suffered due to tie up with tdp.thank god its over.bjp shd concentrate on grassroots politics.villages in telengana are turning saffron.many christians are showing interest to return to their roots.but bjp youth leaders shd renew their contact with the masses.politicians like kishan reddy shd be encouraged.policies shd be made in telengane villages. in 5 years from now bjp will sweep telengana.jai shri ram.
February 18th, 2009 at 5:13 PM
Vikas Ji, BJP has Potential to Emerge as Principal Party in Telangana Next Elections(i.e., whenever, Telangana Elections are held). I say so, because, as I foresee, Telangana would through up a Hung Assembly once it is created and the depleted congress, the non significant Left and strengthened TDP along with virtually wiped off MIM would join Hands to prevent NDA Government in Telangana, whioch would fall apart in between and fresh elections would be called.By Then, BJP would emerge as Principal Party in Telangana.
Also, during that probation period, VHP Should develop A Base in The Tribal Regions.
February 18th, 2009 at 5:16 PM
And Vikas Ji, Sri Ram Navmi is Nearing and Itis A Huge Festival and Celebrated All over Andhra Pradesh with Huge Fanfare, Particularly in Bhadrachalam. unlike, in TN, in AP, Ram is Worshipped NOT Just by Brahmins but by All Hindus.
NTR Could succeed in Politics because His Images in LuvKush as Sri Ram were used as cut outs. RamRajya is The Word Till Date Politicians in AP use.
February 18th, 2009 at 5:17 PM
And Vikas Ji, Raja Redy Gaaru’s Insightful Analysis is Really Great and useful.
February 18th, 2009 at 5:21 PM
Dear Arun, There is Wide Spread Frustration and Disenchantment with both UPA at centre at DMK in the state if NOT Anger for complete non governance.
It’s Not clear, if There would be Rigid Votebanks this time around. Traditional DMK votes may repel to MDMK and DMDK if Well Campaigned. Further, The Fluid Votes are the one’s NDA has to capitalize.
PS: I do Admire Ms Jayalalithaa as An Able Administrator. InFact, She is as Good Administrator as Modi Ji. But, She isnt Reliable.
February 18th, 2009 at 6:06 PM
Dear Arun, Maal’s Would Remain With Congress and Not vote for BJP as BJP is in favour of SC Categorization. If Reservations for SCs are Categorized in AP, Then, it is The Maala Community which would be Most Affected. records Show That,70% of Beneficiaries of Resertvations for SCs in AP have been Maala’s. This is Much Higher then Their Population among SCs. The Maadiga’s constitute as much as 60% of SCs in AP but they lag behind The Maalas in Education and Employment. Further, since, Maala’s are followers of Reddy’s The Dominant Caste in Congress in AP, Congress Leaders Patronized The Maal Community.
Hence, it is Not an easy task to break the consolidation of maala votes from congress. Maadigas have traditionally sided with TDP.
It is BSP, which is actually cutting into The Maala Votes of Congress.
February 18th, 2009 at 6:10 PM
In 2004, BSP Polled About 3.5% of Popular Vote in AP.
This time around, with Media blowing up Mayawati as A National Figure, BSP is likely to Poll about 4.5-5% of Popular Vote in AP and may even Poll as High as 6% cutting into both The maala vote base of congress and maadiga vote base of TDP
February 18th, 2009 at 8:01 PM
BJP should cut into to some other dominant caste, by contesting all the seats if the alliance with PRP does not emerge!!
February 19th, 2009 at 12:18 AM
CNN ibn seems to have conducted the poll long before the alliance took place. EVen that time the poll looks like a doctored one.
Because it should have taken a clue from mother of all surveys the elections in 16 assembly and 4 Loksabha where more than 16 lakh voters really voted not just participated in some survey which doesn’t give the real feel of the poll. If i were asked by suvey pollsters of CNN i would say YSR is the best PM in the world and his son should be made the CM of ap only to fool the CNN idiots.
Come to the real joke part, they didnt’ say anything about TRS but the survey says 65 percent in telangana are in favor of separate state of telangana. Then what happened to the TRS vote base.
What i would suggest is, some one who is not being well paid was assigned to write some hoax survey report and he wanted to exposed the stained and torn undies inside the cost suits of CNN idiots.(Pun intended). He might have deliberately excluded TRS so that everyone can immediately realize the fraud, like AajTak found out the suitcase scam that CNN tried to foist on Arun jaitley through doctored video.
CNN IBN report is doctored by YSR who can pay any amount for such a propoganda especially as his party could even face a route if the arithmetics of the votes plays some magic even though congress still gets around 25 percent votes.
February 19th, 2009 at 12:24 AM
Latest news is PRP Chiru is trying to dig his own grave by time again mud slinging on the BJP that it is communal and he would never join BJP under any circumstances( Today on news) while BJP is busy slandering the TRS against its decision to go with TDP.NTP wants to align with PRP and also BJP now that is something one would like to watch how it is going to happen as PRP is dead against BJP before elections at the least.
So it is going to be a four cornered contest in AP :
Cong + MIM + soemother minor parties with one two seats
TRS TDP CPI and CPM
PRP and NTP or no NTP
BJP and NTP or NTP
and Lok satta plus some other non players.(not a major front but could win like 1 to 2 percent and could still play with the chances of a few individuals at some places though meagre in number).
February 19th, 2009 at 12:37 AM
The irony here is most of the people who just visit towns and cities in around Hyderabad donot go to villages in telangana.
WIth TRS TDP CPI and CPM joining ,congress leaders are not even considering to campaign they have alredy resigned themselves to defeat.
Most of my friends are gross root level (mandal dist level) leaders in congress. One of my cousin is a district level leader enjoying some political post and power. He used to be a loud supported of “gods son” YSR. When i talked to him recently he was talking in terms of “if only even one who profited from us, through the housing scheme, this that etc voted for us……” that speaks the situation.
For example in NLG from Sagar constituency, AP Home Minister Jana reddy is facing heavy odds against US returned Industrialist Dr. Chinnapa Reddy of TDP and with TRS support thrown in he is way way ahead of Jana reddy in terms of campaign and support. That throws huge problems in for Central minister Sudini Jaipal Reddy who is in double mind whether to stand from Nalgonda for loksabha where TDP has announced G Sukhendar reddy, who has strongly voiced support for telangana within his party even threatened to leave the party. So, the chances are 50 ,50 that if Jaipal reddy contests from Nalgonda. The talk of the town is congress is going to get quite a few shocks in Nalgonda district for ministers at state and center cabinet.
Khammam peple say Renuka chowdary’s chanceas are also very remote.
February 19th, 2009 at 6:23 AM
Dear Raja Reddy Gaaru, I feel You mean to say, Four Cornered Contest in Telangana and Not whole of AP.
The Die-Hard Well Wisher, I am of BJP, yet, I would Rather side with Truth instead of fabricating lies and decieving myself as The Communal News Network-IslamoChurchist BroadcastersNetwork and Never Deliver True Version do.
BJP is A Non Player or I would Even go to the extent of saying Non Existent in Rayalaseema except for select seats in SouthernRayalaseema. With The Exception of Hindupur, BJP would Not be considered A Player in any other Lok Sabha Constituencies in The Eight Parliamentary Constituencies of Rayalaseema, if BJP Doesnt have A Poll Pact.
Similarly, In Coastal Andhra Pradesh too, while in Visakhapatnam BJP is A Serious Contender,In Narsapur too, BJP would give a Good Fight and may wrest the seat this time.
But, Elsewhere, BJP has Marginal Presence. Except for Bezawada East, Guntur-I and Rajamundry Urban Assembly Constituencies.
It’s Only in Urban Telangana that BJP has A Presence, Particularly Concentrated in Hyderabad Region.
February 19th, 2009 at 6:27 AM
Dear Raja Reddy Gaaru, I Never even thought Jaipal Reddy would be winning a Constituency for congress.He has NO Hopes.
He is likely to contest either from Mehbubnagar or Nalgonda.
Anyway, He is Bound to lose.
February 19th, 2009 at 6:29 AM
Jaipal Reddy is NO Match to Sukhander Reddy.
Jaipal Reddy Maintained high profile during United Front when he was in Janata Dal. But, in congres, he is being Humiliated.
February 19th, 2009 at 6:46 AM
If Chiru is Relectant to Have A Poll Pact with BJP as He is brushing aside the developments as Media Speculation, then NTP Should Join Hands with BJP in Telangana.
This would leave PRP in Telangana completely Disheartened.
Chiru can still Bank on Central and Coastal AP.
February 19th, 2009 at 6:48 AM
* I Mean, Central And North Coastal AP known as Konaaseema(The Region Between and Around The Two Pernial Rivers,Viz Krishna-Godavari) and Uttar Andhra, These two regions account for about 14 Lok Sabha Seats, of which Chiru can bank on atleast 7-9 of them.
February 19th, 2009 at 6:57 AM
The one Who is MisGuiding Chiru is Dr. Mitra.
being a communist, he is acting as a Grand Alliance Agent and is working for the benefit of grand alliance
February 19th, 2009 at 9:07 AM
Chiru has to get Rid of The Good for Nothing Communist Mole, Dr. P Mitra.yeah, he is a communist.
And do You guys know where He did His Medicine? in UK.
One Thing common with All the communists is : Enjoy The Benefits and Abuse The same to Deny what You Reaped to Others.
PRP Cant win more than 40-50 Assembly segments, if Chiru sticks to Dr. P Mitra
February 19th, 2009 at 10:17 AM
I am really worried about BJP prospects in Karnataka, with SM Krishna, Dharam Singh, Bagarappa, Karge contesting elections and with their secret alliance with JD(s) congress can dent BJPs chances…
Also the popularity of the government is at a all time low…
February 19th, 2009 at 10:37 AM
Arun, these idiots contested elections in 2008 too.
what could they achieve, nothing.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:51 AM
That time BJP did not face anti-incumbency, now it does….
Actually Upper caste and Lingayats voted for BJP, now SM Krishna is wooing Upper caste votes to congress… I think we cant take Karnataka lightly…
Sadananda Gowda needs to work hard, he is a brilliant chap, he is the electoral brain for BJP in Karnataka whose face is Yedurappa and Ananth Kumar
February 19th, 2009 at 11:15 AM
BJP is still Highly Popular in Karnataka.
SM Krishna is a vokalinga, and he can only get the votes from JD(S) if any.
It’s incorrect to say, BJP is facing Anti-Incumbency in Karnataka.
Further, The Cadres of JD(S) would not work for the benefit of congress and vice versa.
February 19th, 2009 at 7:27 PM
Changing Political Equations in TamilNadu :
AIADMK Gen Sec, Jayalalithaa appeals to congress to end Ties with DMK. If That is so, AIADMK-PMK-INC are likely to form an Alliance.
Here’sCatch-22 Situation.
BJP Should Formalize Alliance with DMDK and MDMK before Congress-AIADMK -PMK Alliance is Finalized, otherwise, Lest would Allign with DMDK and MDMK. BJP Would Then Draw A Blank as It has to go Alone in TN for BJP Cant Allign with DMK at any Cost.
If BJP-DMDK-MDMK alliance gets Materialized before congress heads to Jaya(However congress Alliance with Jaya is Difficult for Chidambaram is Pro-DMK and would Advise sonia maino Not to break away from DMK)
February 19th, 2009 at 7:59 PM
No ADMK and Congress will never align as long as Karunanidhi is alive
February 19th, 2009 at 8:08 PM
Hi Raj and Vikas,
BJP Should Formalize Alliance with DMDK and MDMK. BJP should fight
on 20 seats and 50% of assembly seats. That way BJP will win elcection and will create own base in TN.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Ritesh,
If the Lankan issue is not solved in a weeks time, there is a possibility of PMK, MDMK, VCK and BJP coming together in the elections..
In that case the alliance is capable of winning 7-9 seats like villupuram, chidambaram, sivakasi, meetur, Kovai and trichy..
I see a lot of anger against Congress and DMK for not doing anyhting and ADMK for not participating in the protests…..
February 19th, 2009 at 8:27 PM
Dear Ritesh, Your Enthusiasm seams Cute, But Honestly BJP can only field in about 12 Lok Sabha Seats from TN and Pondicherry Put together. Viz, South Chennai, Kanniyakumari,Coimbatore, SivaGanga,
Ramanathapuram,Tirunalveli,Tiruchirapally,ThenKasi,Tirupur,
Dharmapuri,Myladutharai—Should be Pronounced as : My(as in Mysore) La (as in Lahore) du (as do) Tha — as in Thanjavur Rai(as Ri in Rice) and Pondicherry
at the most BJP can field in 3 more.
BJP Cant field candidates in 20 constituencies in TN.
Safer would be : BJP 10, MDMK 10 and DMDK 20.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:31 PM
Dear Arun , I can stand even VCK, but, PMK is A Big NO.
Even BJP Sympathisers like me would be upset if BJP Allies with PMK.
Please Remember,BJP Would Not get The Crucial Support of Rajnikanth if PMK is entertained in NDA.
Let me bring to All You Guys that in ’99, Despite that BJP And DMK were partners, due to the presence of PMK, Rajni Asked His supporters to vote for TMC formed by Moopanar
February 19th, 2009 at 8:39 PM
Sivakasi is MDMK Stronghold.
Therefore, Vaiko Should be Encouraged to Fight from Chennai Central against Dayanidhi Maran.
Let me bring to The Notice of You Guys that in ’96, it was MDMK that gave a fight to Murasoli Maran from Central Chennai.
Vaiko alone can break DMK’s Monopoly from here and for that He needs An Alliance Partner.
BJP-DMDK-VCK would Certainly be able to Give a Tough Fight to DMK in Central Chennai and if Vaiko Stands from here, He has Potential to Win against Dayanidhi Maran. Also, Vaiko has some personal issues to be settled from marans due to Sun TV which Never Broadcasted Vaiko’s speeches, Even when Vaiko was part of DMK Coalation and when Vaiko campaigned for dayanidhi maran in 2004.
Reason: DMK Feared Coverage of Vaiko’s Fiery and Emotionally Motivating Speeches would attract The Youth to Vaiko and that would Erode DMK’s VoteBase.
February 19th, 2009 at 8:42 PM
VCK is NOT A Registered Party under Election Commission. They are actually A Radical Party and Boycoutted Elections until recently.It’s only since 2001 that VCK Contested Elections. In 2004, They Contested under JD(U) Symbol.so, This time too, they would look for some National Party to lend them symbol.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:03 PM
For this election, Rajini will not support any alliance, he is busy shooting for Indran. Also there is much hype in this forum of Rajini support, out of my experience in following TN politics, I can definitely tell u that not even a single voter will vote based on Rajini’s supports.
Yes Rajini will become a potential force, if he enters political fray, but from outside i think he will have no impact. If there is an arrangement like MDMK + PMK + VCK + BJP then all the actors would support the same as they have been very vocal about the Lankan cause.
February 19th, 2009 at 9:10 PM
But, what about DMDK?
We cant expect DMDK and PMK to be on the same side.
If Only DMDK tries to dig it’s own Pit as is Chiru doing foolishly by banking on the communist mole, Dr. Mithra, should BJP and PMK Reach A Poll Pact.
I would Still feel, Have DMDK and PMK instead of PMK.
let PMK go with Jaya and Left.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:16 PM
Raj,
I guess ur getting excited about the 10% vote share of DMDK, but u should also appreciate the fact that this vote bank is not concerned and is scattered, it is basically a vote bank which will get bigger only when one of DMK parties becomes extinct.(It is expected that after Karuna death, it is expected that he and jaya will become the 2 poles of TN politics). But the PMK with the support of Vanniyar community is decisive in 4-5 constituencies. I think BJP should be more interested in winning seats than higher vote share.
February 19th, 2009 at 10:40 PM
Dear Arun, DMDK did Particularly well in The Vanniyar Belt.
It was NOT A completely Scattered Vote Share.
if BJP Allies with PMK, BJP is bound to lose Kongu Vellelar Gounder Votes, who account fopr some 6-7% of vote share. Vaiko and MDMK would consolidate the entire Telugu Naidu community(about 17%) to NDA. Also, Brahmins Dont like PMK. And Alligning with PMK would Imply that Brahmin votes would remain with AIADMK..
PMK is decisive in Constituencies such as Dharmapuri,Mayiladuthurai,Salem,Namakkal,Erode, Coimbatore,Tirupur, Dindigul,Pondicherry,Arani.
But, The Support of Kongu Vellelar Community can Neutralize PMK efect. Vanniyars and Kongu Vellelar Gounders Have A Strong Dislike for Each other. Again, The Kongu Vellelar -Brahmins and Telugu Naidu Community accounts to 26% of TN Population and even if NDA gets 80% of these votes, NDA would have about 21% of The Popular Vote. In Addition, BJP can consolidate in Southern Strongholds of Ramanathapuram,Sivaganga and Kanniyakumari
February 19th, 2009 at 10:43 PM
And Dear Arun, Sivakasi and Meetur have got disappeared in DeLimitation.
Sivakasi is now A Part of Virudanagar Parliamentary Constituency
and Mettur is a part of Dharmapuri Constituency.
February 20th, 2009 at 10:41 AM
As per CNN IBN Poll for TN, the stand alone votes for parties are,
BJP 6%
DMDK 9%
PMK 6%
MDMK 1%
AIADMK 28%
DMK 28%
Congress 13%
Left 3%
I guess that’s why AIADMK is desperate for Congress vote share as left is just 3% compared to Congress 13%.
However, if BJP+MDMK+PMK Come together it is 21% and there might be some alliance effect taking it up to 25%. That would be formidable in atleast 15-20 seats.
I think DMDK should have alliance with BJP, as Standalone they can’t get anything. Once these two are together , others will be keen to join. PMK has a history of being a fence sitter. I feel alliance will materialize by march mid.
As of AP, NTP will join BJP, may even contest on its symbol as they can’t rely on Chiru in Telangana. If they fail to win seats, Devender Gaud is history. Best scenario would be if BJP holds the key to assembly with 30-40 seats , with either TDP or PRP falling short of magic number. I hate the arrogance in Chiru, but I guess it happens as he novice in Politics, Same thing happened with Vijaykanth. I hope they learn fast.
February 20th, 2009 at 10:42 AM
Dear all
Last day’s news of AIADMK appeal to Congress for parting ways with DMK looks quite meaningful, because
everybody in TN knows DMK is bound to loose because of state level anti-incumbency and their flip-flop over emotional Sri-Lankan Tamil issue.
The Congress is the biggest opportunist party with no record oflong term relationship with allies, it has a habit of use & throw (rightly pointed out by Amar Singh). So it will not think twice to swap allies for electoral benefits because the crucial support of DMK for Central Govt. surbvival is over now. Cong. has a long record of fighting elections in TN alternatively with DMK & AIADMK.
AIADMK sees benefit as it will get support of a national party (they had decided to go without BJP already to look so-called secular). The biggest benefit, they are eyeing is as Cong will come out of DMK association in TN, Karunanidhi DMK Govt. will collapse in Assembly.( I pointed that DMK has no full majority in Assembly in replying to LKADVANI.IN, the days of one side sweep are over in TN) .Then Jaya may try to form an alternative Govt. in TN (TN assembly: AIADMK 61 + PMK 18 + Cong 34 + Ind. 1 = 114).
They might be counting on Left MLA’s also, which is a crucial point, Left are with AIADMK uptill AIADMK is not in alliance with Cong and DMK is with Cong. The Cong. will leave DMK left will join DMK front. So the DMK Govt. fall is confirmed but installation of Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK-Cong-PMK Govt is to be watched out. There is also possibility of Assembly termination and Mid-Term Assembly Elections in TN.
However, in such an eventuallity, the the tie-ups may take shape like:
AIADMK-Congress
DMK-CPI-CPM
Position of PMK will be watch out, if alternative Govt. is formed and PMK gets good ministries, then it will sail with AIADMK-Congress,
else if there are mid term elections of Assembly then whosoever DMK or AIADMK offers more seat to PMK, it will go with them, most likely DMK.
The best strategy for BJP:
To forge alliance with DMDK, MDMK, VCK (may contest on JD-U symbol), Jantha Party (Dr. Subramaniam Swami), and
sought support of Rajnikant (caution: don’t have any relation with Jayalalithaa AIADMK & PMK)
Pick the issue of human rights of Tamils abroad seriously, focus on Sri Lanka, Malaysia.
Make deals finalise, decide best suitable candidates and hence seat sharing.
Lok Sabha (BJP: 12 inc. Pondicherry, DMDK: 15, MDMK: 10, VCK/JDU 2, JP-Dr. Swamy: 1)
If snap Assembly polls take place, then TN Assembly seats sharing
(DMDK 100, MDMK 75, BJP 50, VCK/JDU/JP 9)
February 20th, 2009 at 10:56 AM
Dear AK
we all know politics is not only arithmetics, it is a chemistry, where metals metals dont react to combine.
further, the biggest flaw of CNN-IBN opinion poll is vote % of MDMK which they estimated to be 1% is a big joke, even at instances when they fought alone without any major issue (2001) they got 6% votes, now with an effective issue of Sri Lankan Tamils and DMK’s mum over it, anyone expect it to reach upto even 10%.
(I think CNN-IBN electronic clerks have dropped 0 while reporting as mistake and wrote 1%)
Another flaw % of Cong. is over hyped at 13%, I think it should be between 8-10%.
February 20th, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Hey Friens, on Ram Sethu Issue :
DMDK, MDMK nad even Dalit Party Leader like Dr. Krsihnaswamy has sided with BJP
February 20th, 2009 at 11:27 AM
Will Union Women & Child Welfare Minister RENUKA CHOWDHARY speak and take action on this issue ?
Will any Deepa Mehta ever make a movie over this story?
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/kerala-nun-alleges-sexual-harassment-in-convents/85844-3.html
No never this doesnot suit their pseudo-secular interests they are busy with barking over non-entity Sri Ram Sene activities.
February 20th, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Dear AK, I Seriously Wonder how ibn comes with ludicrous break up.
MDMK has a Much higher Vote Base then 1%
probably ibn is trying to say, Vaiko has NO Future besides UPA and He should return to UPA Fold.
cnn-ibn breakup surveys Are Fraud.
February 20th, 2009 at 11:31 AM
well said Vikas Ji,In My earlier Days, I was a Left Leaning Person. But, as I grew, I founf that their Only Objective seems to be Portray India and Indian Values in Bad Light and Project christianity as a possitive. This IslamoChurchism of communists has made me An Anti-Communist.
February 20th, 2009 at 11:33 AM
Dear AK, I wont say It’s Chiru’s Arrogance in NOT Allying with BJP.
But, his Naiveness.
He has Politically surrendered to Dr. P Mithra, who is a Known Communist, his entire family are communists.
This Dr. Mithra will Sabotage Chiru’s Chances as CM this time.
February 20th, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Hmmm,
Janatha party and MDMK in the same alliance is a dream!!! Subramanian Swamy is a joke, he has represented my constituency once in lok sabha and if u ask anyone in my place about SS, they would show their slippers!!! be it from any caste!!!!
ADMK call for congress will never materialise, because PC, GK Vasan, Thangabalu, Mani – all these people cannot even see face to face with Jaya. It is a statement actual to woo the dissents in the congress to ADMK and is wrongly quoted by the press as an offer of friendship, congress in TN very well knows that if they decide to go with ADMK, there would be another Tamil Manilla Congress ( i think sonia would like to avoid the same). Jaya on her part is trying to create unhappiness among the state congress leaders( who were not given ministerial posts in the Minority DMK govt.). As far as the Tamil issue is concern, the gainers at the movement seem to be PMK, MDMK, LEFT, VCK and BJP, ther is anger towards DMK, Congress for not doing enough and ADMK for not participating in the protests!!!
February 20th, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Dear Vikas Ji, Congress would Not even get the 8% votes it got in ’98 when they contested alone in the wake of Jain Commission Interim Report.
The inaction and opposition to Ealam have actually doomed the congress.
While BJP would have probably gained around 4%, I am apprehensive of 6% votebase to BJP in TN.
BJP’s Presence is Localized in Discrete Towns. Therefore, BJP’S Vote base may Not be more than 4.5% in TN
Only about DMDK they have come right.
DMK even in 2006, Polled only 25% of Popular Vote and now, there is WideSpread Anger and Disenchantments with DMK for complete Non Governance and Sacrificing Tamil Issues for the sake of power.
DMK’s vote percentage would fall down to 21% or even below 20%, if MDMK is given as many as 10-12 seats in Alliance and Contests Particularly against DMK in 2009.
Jayalalithaa has more than 30% votebase. Even in Adverse Situation, AIADMK Never polled below30% of Popular Vote(Even in ’96 when there was wide spread anger against her)
February 20th, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Arun, are You from Madurai or Mumbai. Because, Dr. Subramanian Swamy Represented North Mumbai in ’77 and ’80 and Madurai in ’98.
Well, Dr. Subramanian Swamy is An Intellectual but Politically He is A Joker and Isnt a Vote Catcher.
Further, He is Quite demanding.
Hence, drop Dr. Swamy and opt for Vaiko
February 20th, 2009 at 11:43 AM
I vividly remember the scenes of Subramanian Swamy saying he will convert his constituency into Singapore!!!
People still laugh at the same even today!!!
February 20th, 2009 at 11:45 AM
Madurai is my native!!!
February 20th, 2009 at 11:50 AM
I agree with Arun, Leave Dr. Subramanian Swamy to Flirt with AIADMK
The Likely Alliances for TN Will Be:
DMK-Congress(Firm)— Bound to Lose Badly, will end up with only 5-6 seats
AIADMK-PMK-CPM-CPI-Dr.Subramanian Swamy-VCK-INL(A Muslim Party) — will Win anywhere from 20-25 seats
BJP-DMDK-MDMK-Puthiya Tamizhagam(would fight under D-USymbolas They did in ’04)— Has A Potential to Win anywhere between 12-15 seats
February 20th, 2009 at 11:51 AM
okay
February 20th, 2009 at 11:52 AM
VCk will never go with Jaya
February 20th, 2009 at 11:53 AM
VCK is better than Pudiya tamilagam
February 20th, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Many Observes feel, post karunanidhi’s death, it would be DMDK that would be the greatest beneficiery as a result of infighting in DMK. However, I feel, that, MDMK Would Benefit much by the fall of DMK. DMDK has a potential to eat more into ADMK’s vote then the DMK’s. The same with BJP.
Hence, it is important that in This election, BJP Romps is Vaiko and DMDK into NDA.
BJP Should Speak of Tamil Issue in The Manifessto and Declare the same by organizing a Rally in TN(Chennai/Soume Southern TN Constituency)
Since AIADMK would NOT Care much about Ealam, MDMK will find it hard to continue with Jaya.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:05 PM
yep, in terms of Electoral Politics. But, Both can join Hands together as They did in 2004.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:17 PM
BJP should not do the mistake it did in WB, the rise of BJP in the late 90s was coupled by strong local leaders, for instance in UP Vajpayee along with the spectrum of Vinay, Kalyan and Rajanth took forward the party, in Gujarat Advani along with Keshubhai and Shankar singh did and later Modi took over. Talk of raj there was Shekawat and Jaswant Singh. MP – Uma Bharathi, Scindia Family.The only place there was not a strong leader for BJP in the late 90s was WB, that is reason why BJP is not able to improve in Bengal.
The same revolution is happening in south, here people are now hearing about BJP as a national force and not as party of Hindi heartland, it high time BJP comes up with acceptable faces so that, it can become a formibale force in TN, Kerala and AP. I see a lot of hope for BJP in Telangana region, but in Kerala though new faces are coming there is lot of infighting. TN is one place where BJP is literally sleeping, it is time to produce some grass root support, instead of waiting for Rajini to enter politics and join BJP.
February 20th, 2009 at 12:44 PM
Dear Raj,
combining all informations,
it is apparent either PRP aligns with BJP prepoll or not, it will hardly have any impact on BJP’s electoral performance.
As the stakes of BJP lies in Telangana, where has hardly any influence and will be of no use for BJP.
Outside, Telangana, the seats which matter for BJP are Vishakhapatnam & Narsapur (Hindupur possibility dampened due to strong candidate from another party). mIn these if BJP wins then only due to influence of its own candidates. PRP will hardly any role in it but it will claim its contribution post election.
BJP should definitely reach out to NTP and seal a deal by alloting 2 Lok sabha and 2 dozen Assembly seats to NTP in seat sharing. this give lend a marginal but decisive vote % to BJP in Telangana.(The region around Hyderabad RR dist.)
As in my Earlier analysis after MLC election result
(Hyderabad-Rangareddy-Mahaboobnagar Graduates Constituency: K.Nageswar of TDP-TRS-Left was re-elected defeating BJP candidate Ramachandra Rao by wafer thin margin of just 436 votes.)
Specially
Ranga Reddy district made of CHEVELLA & MALKAJGIRI LSseats.
As T Devender Goud belongs to RR dist. and he will contest from Medchala in RR dist. this bring additive votes to BJP in two seats of this dist. and may lead to win.
As in Hyderabad, dist they are traditionally strong, even without alliances 1999,96,98:
SECUNDERABAD winning in alternative elections (last time Cong won here, this time Md. Ahzaruddin may be contesting as Cong. candidate here will polarise Hindu nationalist votes to BJP as Azhar is seen as a traitor due to his involvement in infanous match-fixing case and see BJP win)
year) Winner Vote % Party Runner Up Vote % Party
2004 ) M. ANJAN K. YADAV 49.9 INC B. DATTATRAYA 42.84 BJP
1999 ) Bandaru Dattatraya 52.19 BJP N.Bhaskara Rao 42.13 INC
1998 ) Bandaru Dattatreya 49.02 BJP P.v.rajeswar Rao 28.24 INC
1996 ) Rajeshwar Rao P.V. 48.78 INC B. Dattatreya 23.92 BJP
1991 ) Bandaru Dattatraya 48.19 BJP T. M. Anjaiah (w) 32.05 INC
while in HYDERABAD, BJP was always runner up
year) Winner Vote % Party Runner Up Vote % Party
2004 ) Asaduddin Owaisi 38.39 AIMIM G.SUBASH CH. JI 28.25 BJP
1999 ) Salahuddin Owaisi 41.36 AIMIM Baddam Bal Reddy 35.74 BJP
1998 ) Salahuddin Owaisi 44.65 AIMIM Baddam Bal Reddy 38.07 BJP
1996 ) Salahuddin Owaisi 34.57 AIMIM M. Venkaiah Naidu 26.68 BJP
1991 ) Salahuddin Owaisi 46.18 MIM Baddam Bal Reddy 42.17 BJP
In all these instances AIMIM never got 50 % votes, while Hindu votes got divided bu Cong. & TDP candidates in rural areas(In 1999 & 2004 TDP supported BJP but in tose elections Cong got TDP rural votes).
This time Cong likely to support AIMIM and TDP-TRS-Left grand alliance likely to support Editor of Urdu daily Siasat, there is no other Hindu candidate to divide BJP votes and exclusion of rural areas in delimitation will see BJP candidate win here. Baddam Bal reddy is the best candidate, he always polled higher votes than any other BJP candidate.
another seat important is MAHBUBNAGAR, here BJP polled 21%, 17%, 27% votes in 1991,1996, 1998 even without alliance.
Summing in these three districts, out of 6 seats BJP has high chances in 5 seats leving one-Nagarkurnool(SC) arural area with high Dalit votes.
BJP should manage to win at least 4 of them.
In the remaining Telangana, they got good votes always in Karimnagar, Nalgonda, Adilabad, Medak. One or two seats should be won out of these.
Earlier I had suggested Sh. Narendra Modi should be brought for campaigning in Hyderabad, but now I suggest not to do it. His presence will rather unite the otherwise divided Muslim votes between AIMIM and Siasat editor supported by Grand Alliance. There is not much dander Hindu vote division because of absence of any other Hindu candidate from Congress or TDP or TRS.
So, in total Telangana I calculate 5-6 seats for BJP (inc. 1 of NTP) and a couple of seats outside Telangana in AP- Vishakhapatnam, Narsapur; Taking total no of BJP 6-7 + NTP 1 in AP.
In the remaining AP if PRP doesnot allies with BJP than BJP can field candidates in all seats and put full efforts to increase its vote share and damage Congress (as BJP is more likely to attract national party votes of Congress), it will have two benefits:
One, BJP will create its base, the process which was left out post 1998 after alliance with TDP, which give more strength and bargaining power to BJP in future. Vote % of BJP will attract PRP post election.
two, I am of strong opinion BJP will damage Congress more as it is a national party and get votes of people who like to vote for national parties only, it is not always caste equations only. It will also sway many Raj type voters (Raj admitted earlier he was Left lean but later shifted BJP side) from Left base in Grand Alliance. Thus only helping PRP to win subsequently which is bound to fall in BJP’s kitty post elections.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:01 PM
while getting right chemistry from all of you if Dr. Subramanyam Swami is abig problem he shouild be dropped for going with Jayalalitha AIADMK-Congress alliance and damaging them.
Personally I also see him as highly unfaithfual troublesome and a demanding person creating problems again and again but I thought he may be a good campaigner. But as you all told he is more percieved as a Joker in TN and destroy the credibility of NDA, he sould be avoided as he will also irk Vaiko MDMK and sing different tune on Lankan issue.
The NDA in TN should be formed with
BJP, MDMK, DMDK, VCK/JDU
As LKADVANI.IN u told there many opposers of AIADMK in Congress but I do feel it is true but it will not stop Congress going to winning AIADMK side. People like PC, Vasan may even leave Cong to join DMK, PC has no political base, ha has even aligned with NDA in 2001 assembly elections.
So I strongly see AIADMK-Cong. alliance and
DMK-Left alliance and also PMK joining them in Snap polls for assembly.
February 20th, 2009 at 1:47 PM
Irking PC will affect the congress party in the English press, this guy in the last five years has made sure that he is seen as a successor to MMS at least in the eyes of the English media and press. If a Jaya- Sonia deal happens then PC will be aggressively campaigning (atleast in the English Media) against congress, he may even go to the extent of exposing Congress follies in the last 5 years
Though i see AK Antony to be the next in line, i think PC will be given his own space by the congress for his politics. I agree with Vikas on PC trying to switch over to NDA.He tried to emulate Kumaramangalam.
All said and done, One thing is sure, no one has permanent friends and foes in politics. If Sonia can accept Rane in two months after dissent, there can be a possiblity of Jaya- Sonia patch up. Only time will answer!!!!
February 20th, 2009 at 1:48 PM
Vikas,
Do answers my doubts on UP in the North India forum!!!
February 20th, 2009 at 2:16 PM
Dear Vikas Ji Great Analysis.
In ’96 BJP’s Votebase Dipped low in AP for One Main Reason : Sri P V Narasimha Rao, The Telugu Bidda( Son of Telugu Soil) being The PM, and PV Being A Brahmin, Drifted All The Brahmin Votes and also some other OBC Votes frm BJP to congress.
I do Strongly Feel, BJP Should move Badam Balram Reddy from Chevella to Hyderabad.
He always Polled nearly 40% of Popular Vote.
In’94 Assembly Elections, He Defeated MIM Candidate frm Karwan Assembly Segment(A Highly Muslim Dominated Constituency in spite of the fact that BJP Contested Elections Alone!!!).
In 2004, TDP President asked his cadres to work for the defeat of BJP Candidates and that’s one of the main reasons for BJP’s lower vote percentage.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:20 PM
Vikas Ji, in Nalgonda, TRS -TDP Grand Alliance has an edge over BJP.
That aside, Sri Narendra Modi Ji is Addressing A Meet tomorrow(on 21st Feb 2009) in Karimnagar. And lot of Ground Work is Being Done. At Least One Rally has to be Addressed by Modi Ji in Telangana to Enhuse The Cadres. He Pumps in Energy even if He isnt Aggressive.unlike Kalyan and Vinay Katiyar, ModiJi is NOT Just The Aggressive Face of Hindutva, He is Also Known for His Administrative Capabilities and Mass Management.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:23 PM
Vikas Ji, here I would like to add, that in AP, Congress has become more of A State Party ratherthan A National Party.
until, Late Nineties, Congress didnt have A Powerful State Leader ever since Indira Gandhi shun away Dr. Neelam Sanjeev Reddy.
But, with an Italian at the helm of AICC and an Evangelical christian as AP CM, she has NOT Allowed any congress leader to voice dissidence and has given a free hand to yesupaada samuel reddy(ysr) in AP
February 20th, 2009 at 2:30 PM
Vikas Ji, Congress-AIADMK Alliance is NOT Possible before 2009 Polls.
After May 209 General Elections Debacle, congress would withdraw support to DMK and snap polls would be called.
This time round, while we seriously dont know what PMK will do, there are indications that PMK may still remain with UPA stati ng their alliance is Only with Congress and NOT DMK and it is for congress to decide the partners.
This leaves, AIADMK-Left alliance in the dork.
BJP-DMDK-MDMK-VCK(including Dr. Krishnaswamy)/JD(U) is A Must and is The Only Viable Option for All The Parties.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:48 PM
Vikas,
Is there any sense of dissidents in Congress. YSR seems to e the king and all others are loosing prominence. I would be happy,if sitting MLAs who do not get tickets and people with good mass base not getting tickets move to TDP or PRP or BJP.
Is there any chance of a person like N Jarandhan Reddy moving out of congress, because of being sidelined.
If congress is not able to control dissidents, its prospects would be affected as it happened to Raje in Rajasthan and even to Modi in 2004 elections.
February 20th, 2009 at 2:50 PM
sorry the question is for Raj, i have been asking so many questions to Vikas, so i wrongly addressed him in this question also!!!
February 20th, 2009 at 3:00 PM
In Telangana Region Where BJP Can Win are : Secunderabad, Malkajigiri(for Sure Even in The Worst Case), Hyderabad(This is The Most Favourable Situation for BJP in Hyderabad),KarimNagar(KCR’s decision Not to fight from here and Modi Ji Addressing A Rally here on 21st Feb 2009 is Likely to Boost The Winnability of The KarimNagar Parliamentary Seat),Mehbubnagar(This Time BJP has Fielded A Strong Candidate), Chevella. Other Seats, Where BJP has High Potential to Win : Adilabad and Mehbubabad(both Reservedfor ST).
Adilabad was TRS Citadel, but in last year bypoll, TRS lost to Congress Candidate.
Let, me explain Why this happened.
there were three key players in Adilabad(Then was contested as an unreserved constituency, since in 2004, this was unreserved)-TRS,Congress and TDP.
BJP Didnt contest stating, the outcome doesnt have any Importance in Parliament. The Real Reason behind BJP’s decision Not to contest the Telangana ByPolls last may was BJP which was hoping for an Alliance with TRS was disappointed as TRS, which initially favoured alliance with BJP decided to go alone eyeing the muslim vote.since, TDP too, snapped Ties with BJP in 2005,BJP Decided to teach a lesson to both TRS and TDP and BJP cadres voted for congress and also, by then, congress was still giving a faint hope to people of Telangana that,They are for A Seperate Statehood to Telangana.
so, all these helped congress win Adilabad seat last may.
However by Now, BJP has entered the fray as a Strong Contender and PRP would eat into traditional congress votes in Adilabad.TRS is planning to leave this seat to communists, which would spell doom for Grand Alliance.
Also, The Telangana Intellectual Forum is Rallying behind BJP and NTP, hence, BJP-NTP Alliance will also gain support frm Telangana Intellectuals Forum. Gaddar, The Moaist Balladear has asked people Not to Vote for Grand Alliance and Rallied with BJP(well, His sphere of Influence is small, but, Nevertheless it is significant to attract rural voteers in certain constituencies).
In Addition BJP has some Stakes in Warrangal(SC),Zahirabad and Nizamabad.
February 20th, 2009 at 3:02 PM
Dear Arun, Though There is Dissidence, sonia is suppressing them by completely siding with ysr(the christian relation). Any Dissidence in AP Congress will be evident only After May 2009 Election Results are announced.
February 20th, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Dear Raj
I had suggested for avoiding a Modi rally in & around Hyderabad but anywhere else in Telangana say Karimnagar is must needed for morale boosting. He is not only a Hindutva icon but a symbol development & financial integrity, which enthuse common men.
U r right his mere presence charge Hindutva without any arousal, similarly his mere presence unites Muslim-Christians. So he should not go public in Hyderabad which will unite otherwise divided Muslims.
February 20th, 2009 at 3:03 PM
It’s unlikely that there would be any congress leader joining BJP before polls in AP.
However, more Kaapu Leaders from congress as well as TDP may join PRP
February 20th, 2009 at 3:18 PM
And Vikas Ji, Though I had Left Leniant views in my Earlier Days on several Issues, even as a Teen, I was Pro-BJP.
I took Left Leniant stnds against VHP, Bajrang Dal and Co while Politically I always Favoured BJP.
I supported The Demolistion of Babri Mosque, Though I am NOT A Votary for Construction of Ram Temple, I would Strongly Oppose any move to reconstruct the mosque at the same site.
The Demolition of mosques at Ayodhya, Kashi and Mathura will demoralize the muslims and I support for the same reason.
Also, I am A Strong Anti-Reservationalist.
The Reason Why I was Attracted to BJP despite coming from Non RSS Background is That Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi led The Anti-Mandal Agitations
February 20th, 2009 at 3:22 PM
Its good na, if people get sidelined they must be poached by BJP/ PRP.
Another bad news – Allu may contest from Nasarpur
February 20th, 2009 at 3:26 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
I had responded in detail to your points about UP in North India forum plz. go through them
February 20th, 2009 at 3:28 PM
i have, thanks. Please answer the question on Ayodya. Y is Vinay Katiyar contesting from Ahmednagar.
February 20th, 2009 at 6:22 PM
Well, if Allu Aravind decides to contesat from Narsapur, it would backfire PRP for encouraging Family Politics and Not trusting anyone.
That would be A Grave Mistake by PRP if They decide to launch Allu Aravind from Narsapur.
Already, Youth Wing President is Chiru’s Brother.
PRP would Then be known as FRP, Family Rajyam Party or KRP, Kutumb(am) Rajyam Party
February 21st, 2009 at 9:22 AM
TN: Sonia wants to build bridges with Jaya
http://www.rediff.com/news/2009/feb/20tn-cong-wants-an-alliance-with-aiadmk-in-tamil-nadu.htm
If this happens, it will put BJP in tight spot, as DMK might bring most of smaller parties other than DMDK into its fold to fight Jaya.
New arithmetic is seen every day.
February 21st, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Dear AK, I dont think it would Materialize before 2009 May Polls.
Post Electoral Debacle both at the centre and Rout in the state, congress would pull out support to the minority DMK govt and would allin with Jaya along with PMK, leaving only left parties to be as allies for DMK
February 21st, 2009 at 11:50 AM
I t seems, today it is this P Chidambaram who is interested in working out an Alliance with AIADMK.
If That is so, then AIADMK-Congress-PMK Alliance can Materialize.
Reason Why PC has made overtures to Jaya can be that, in SivaGanga, He cant win Without AIADMK’s support. BJP is more stronger than Congress in The Southern Districts of TN.
As far as G K Vasan is concerned, well, I would like to remind to You all that in 2001, Moopanar alligned with Jayalalithaa.
February 21st, 2009 at 11:59 PM
Hi
I am really impressed by the analysis done by our friends in this website. Lets hope that BJP led alliance come back to power with thumping majority.