- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
Western India is always been a bastion of BJP. This time also it is going its traditional way. Read the detailed analysis.
Rajasthan (25): Rajasthan is in between of a major political storm right now. This is a gamble which can go horribly against BJP or get a public sympathy for BJP. But as the time will pass fire will be extinguished. Gujjars are not going to vote for BJP for sure. BJP can consolidate 15% meena in its favor by not signing treaty with gujjars. This means that a lot depends on present talks. We can predict that BJP will lose a little ground, and still manage to win 18 seats, leaving 7 for congress.
Madhya Pradesh (29): Madhya Pradesh is been a headache for BJP organization. After changing two chief ministers, it is not in such a good condition as was in 2004. Anti-incumbency is also working against BJP, But BJP generally more reliable option in LokSabha election in MP. So maybe it loose state election this year, but will perform relatively better in LokSabha election. I think BJP can manage to get 18 seats here also. Congress state unit is as always in state of fight with itself. That is why they cannot capitulate on the lost grounds of BJP. They can get 10 seats, leaving 1 for other, most probably BSP.
Gujarat (26): Gujarat was a split between BJP and congress in last election due to internal problems of BJP state unit. Now after thumping victory in VidhanSabha election 2008 Modi has made it very clear that there is no more unrest against him. This will make Gujarat a almost clean sweep for BJP with 21 seats, leaving 5 for congress.
Goa (2): Goa is most likely to split between BJP and congress.
Maharashtra (48): Maharashtra is the biggest and most unstable state of western India. There are four strong parties congress, NCP, SS, BJP. BSP and SP are also making some grounds here. NNS is a new party. So picture is very dazzling. Most likely this time it will favor BJP+SS. But what if they do not contest in coalition, which is a very less likely situation though; both will face same fate as in 2004. Otherwise BJP+SS are most likely to get around 32 (BJP 20 + SS 12). Congress+NCP should get around 14 (congress 8 + NCP 6). But if they fought against each other, then their tally can go further down. Two seats can go to others and independence. There is a possibility that any of major combination can take support of smaller parties. This will increase their tally by a considerable amount as 1-2% votes can make a much difference in such an election. Finally I should admit that I am not very sure about this prediction of mine about Maharashtra. So, let us wait and watch, Indian people have always thrown up surprises for political analyst in elections.
This completes our west India analysis and final tally is
Total seats: 130
BJP: 78
SS: 12
This gives NDA total as 90
INC: 31
NCP: 06
This gives UPA total as 37
Other: 03
Latest seatwise prepoll analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
Take a look at these related posts:
- Countdown to general election 2009 – north india – a battleground
- Countdown to general election 2009 – east india – lefts are loosing
- Countdown to general election 2009 – south india – a thousand options
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
June 21, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Well…first of all..nice blog pal! Seems you are very passionate about it and have worked hard on it…so best wishes frm me.
Now I am not too much convinced with your prediction about Rajasthan, I think that Congress will have a clean sweep in Rajasthan…the Raje Government has failed on all the fronts, leave alone this Gujjar issue, even before this the Marwari Business Community (major vote bank of BJP in Rajasthan) was not at all happy with this Government…the main reasons being:
1) Ashok Gehlot’s Government did a lot of good work and people realized it only when they had the work of Raje Government to compare with
2) Raje Government failed miserably during the time of draught in its initial years…there was complete mismanagement of resources and chaos
3) Vasundhara Raje Sindhiya only concentrated on the development of her region (the Jhalawar region)…this has led to the arousal of a feeling of ignorance in the people of other main regions like Marwar, Mewar etc.
4) People are missing a leader…an iconinc figure in BJP which was present before in the form of Mr. Bheroin Singh Shekhawat
Well finally I would like to conclude by making my prediction for the Rajasthan seats…and that would be BJP: 8 Congress: 17
Vikas
June 21, 2008 at 10:57 PM
Vikas,
While you have some correct points, BJP may lose the assembly elections. Rajasthan has voted very differently in Lok Sabha and State elections, I am sure in lok sabha they will vote for BJP
June 22, 2008 at 2:26 PM
as bjp have solved the problem of gujjars so i think ,public opinion may be
on bjp side.
but nothing can be said exactly about election.
July 31, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Rajasthan And Madhya Pradesh bhave to be Watched Carefully.
October 7, 2008 at 10:10 AM
I think you are over estimating BJP, its almost sure that it is going to rout in Rajasthan and in MP, I do’nt think how you are predicting this?
October 19, 2008 at 5:30 PM
Sunil,
Tribals (a very sizable electorate in MP) with vote for BJP. RSS is doing some good job there. Upper caste will also be solidly with BJP.
One thing for sure is that Uma will be a non starter in MP. She repeated the same mistake kalyan singh did in UP.
Regarding RJ I am not sure. I am not sure whether Jat and Gujjar will support BJP this time round although Bhainsla is now supporting BJP so that might swing gujjar votes for BJP. Meenas are behind BJP with no major meena leader with congress. But again I am not very sure about the scenario in RJ. Vasundhra is facing a strong anti incumbency in RJ.
November 3, 2008 at 2:17 PM
the election are going to be a clean sweep for the congress mainly beacuse of the development work done by the previous government led by Mr Ashok gelhot and the vote bank of gujjar shifting from bjp to congress
November 3, 2008 at 2:20 PM
the election are going to be a clean sweep for the congress mainly beacuse of the development work done by the previous government led by Mr Ashok gelhot and the vote bank of gujjar shifting from bjp to congress. but nothing can be sent in particular . but i think congress projecting Ashok Gelhot as CM candidate will make a lot fo difference
November 23, 2008 at 1:34 AM
I thought it was revers. Gujjars were always with Congres sright, Portion oF gujjars have started supporting BJP
November 28, 2008 at 6:15 AM
Its difficult to predict things now, especially bec of the scene happening in mumbai…How many people will come out of their houses and vote…its tough to say…but no doubt, thr is a need of change in the State of Madhya Pradesh….3 contestants constanlty changed in 5 years of time..seems witty! We do need a young erudite, a scholar who understands and is aware of the things happening in other parts of the world (like OBAMA)….I am not trying to make a space for Digvijay singh, but no doubt we need someone who is a learned like the PM/ Obama. I dont know what impact the mumbai scene will have on the elections…but seems that less majority of people will be showing interest in voting..as they really do not see any signs of “We can Do It”!!!! please select the appropriate option
that is the only alternate they have…
December 3, 2008 at 3:17 PM
haha , if the BJP manages to win more than 35 seats together from MP,rajasthan and gujarat i will stop following politics
dude pls if u want to write stuff then u should not be so outwardly biased…
anyways ur website
December 10, 2008 at 4:01 AM
I now feel BJP can get more than 20 seats in MP.GOing BY current trends in state assembly, BJP can manage to get 10 seats in Rajasthan, and can get about 25 seats in MP….
December 10, 2008 at 4:20 AM
Shantesh,
Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh BJP will approximately get the same as it got last time. In Rajasthan I dont think they will drop to as low as 10. Remember even in the 90′s when Congress won a landslide in 1998 Rajasthan election or in 1993 when BJP got 85 seats, always in lok sabha Rajasthan gave BJP more seats. I would say they will get 15 or 16 and even more if they get the meena issue fixed now.
December 20, 2008 at 11:10 PM
i would contradict to you your predictions are tilted towards right wing i am an rss follower and dont agree with congresses ideology but we have to be realistic in our approach. data which i have with me shows a different picture i see tough fight may be the closest till date may have the references from where you have collected this work to check creditability of my reference.
January 24, 2009 at 11:13 AM
this time no cong no BJP only BSP will win the loksabha election
January 24, 2009 at 11:16 AM
congress looted the mulnivasis for more than 60 years BJP is also the impression of Congress so this time the bahujan samaj party will rulled the country and the conquer more than 200 seats from all over the india
January 24, 2009 at 1:54 PM
Are you dreaming Sujt?
BSP is losing ground even in UP.
January 24, 2009 at 1:55 PM
hello Dushyant, BSP is gaining media attention because of mayawati’s tours.
But, it’s very hard for her to crack.
She Would only Indirectly Help BJP
January 24, 2009 at 6:01 PM
I was one of the persons who felt that the BSP had potential to be the single most importanat party post 2009 elections. The situation has changed quite a bit and the BSP’s growth curve may have reached the crust too early and the decline is likely to start with this Election.
In the west Maharashtra will be the ‘Battleground state’ and the performance there will have a significant bearing on who rules Delhi.
January 26, 2009 at 4:01 PM
Thiru Hari,BSP Chief Mayawati is A Replica of Jayalalita with a negative that Maya doesnt have administrative capabilities unlike Jaya.
however, Maya would increase her vote share in Maharashtra, MP,Rajasthan and Delhi but cannot win seats.
January 31, 2009 at 5:06 PM
Why BSP is strong in UP
————————————–
BSP was using abusive language in UP against upper caste. That is why BSP attracted SC/ST and muslim votes. Once BSP secured SC/ST and muslim votes then with the help of BJP(), BSP started getting support of upper caste leader(Same time lot of inner fighting was taking place in BJP), and she stopped using abusive language against upper caste. Upper Caste leaders are greedy. They know how to make money and Mayawati is the best way for earning money for these leaders( becuase mayawati was having more chance to be CM).
Now upper caste( not upper caste leaders) voters have understood reality.
Why Mayawati can not enter in other state in future
=====================================
1. To get SC/ST votes Mayawati have to use abusive language against upper caste people. This is not possible now. otherwise BSP will loose upper caste votes in UP.
2. In other state SC/ST leaders are already present.
3.Other states are matured as compare to UP.
4.Now media is present in big way.
January 31, 2009 at 6:11 PM
Ritesh Ji, UP and Bihar are The Only Two states in India who have Strong Dalit Leaders and infact, in Bihar, ram vilas paswan represents only one particular dalit caste and unlike mayawati has not been able to galvanize other subsects of dalits. And as a result many dalits vote for BJP-JD(U) and some for BSP
Punjab and AP are two states that have Huge dalit population but still BSP cant make a dent in these two(BSP was once strong in Punjab bu later lost the votebank from their).
I cant reason for BSP’s loss in Punjab but in AP, there are two major dalit classes : maala(agricultural labourers) who are followers of Redddy’s and as Reddy’s patronize congress by and Large, the maala’s vote for congress
the other major subcaste of dalits in AP(my Home State) are maadigas(chamaars, those who deal with leather), since maala’s and maadiga’s Hate each other(the maadiga’s out number maala’s but most of the benefits obtained through reservation have been eluded to the maadiga’s while maala’s enjoyed a greater share) and hence maadiga’s used to vote for TDP (by and large)
next, irrespective of sub castes within dalit community, some of them are convcerted christians who definitely go with congress for both sonia maino and samuel reddy(ysr) are xtians
PRP is eyeing the maadiga’s votes .
One might be wondered, even in reserved categories, the congress and TDP used to field based on subcastes of dalits.
BJP has considerable sway over unconverted Tribals in Telangana and should Bank on Them. BJP Shoul Promote leaders from Lambadi Tribe atleast at Telangana level.
Hence BSP is unable to make a dent in AP
and even if BSP scres some points, it would primarily hurt TDP and Congress
January 31, 2009 at 11:48 PM
Once againg Your’s analysis is very-2 strong. You are knowing each and every thing well way.
One important Because of PRP who will be major looser out 10 scale
1. Congress ?/10
2.TDP ?/10
3.BJP ?/10
What i am thinking PRP will take away votes from Congress and TDP not from BJP. And BJP will take votes away from TRS. Please explain.
February 1, 2009 at 3:28 AM
PRP is likely to cut into the voes of congress
BJP would only be possitively affected by PRP and not negatively
TDP can make to the losses in Coastal Andhra by gaining in Telanagana through the grand alliance
February 1, 2009 at 8:46 AM
Hi Raj,
BJP may get 7/17 in Telanagana what about in remaining
AP 5/25. Is it possible. Please explain me real picture.
May BJP cut TRS vote and TDP votes in Telangana. May BJP loose because of Telangana in reamining AP .
February 1, 2009 at 5:14 PM
5 out of remaining 25?
I think it’s wishful thinking
The Only Seats BJP can really Bank on beyond Telangana are : Visakhapatnam and Narsapur(if fought fiercely, remember; this is the home constituency of chiranjeevi urf konidela shiva shankara vara prasad. If only, there is some cross voting in the Lok Sabha Polls and Assembly Elections in the constituency from where he stands, BJP’s Narsapur Candidate U V Krishnamraju has a good chance of winning.
I was until recently Banking on Hindupur as well, but, arrival of Balakrishna has changed equations there and made it hard for Naresh, The BJP Candidate from Hindupur(who is regarded as Hindupur’s Adopted Child) and who was also a popular Comedy Hero in The Eighties and Early Nineties in Telugu Film Industry. Here again, BJP Should be able to instigate cross voting between Assembly and Lok Sabha Elections among The Hindus and can benefit through splitting of muslim vote.
The Other Potential Constituencies for BJP in AP beyond Telangana are :
Nellore , If and ONLY If BJP dares to Field M Venkiah Naidu from here and utilizes the full services of Their former MP from Nellore who is an SC to garner SC Votes along with the upper caste Hindu Votes(Nellore has seen a lot of Missionary works and therefore, if BJP can Galvanize non converted SC Votes, BJP has a Fair chance here) Also, BJP Should organize a Vijay Sankalp Yatra Meeting here post announcing M Venkiah Naidu as it’s Candidate
PS: Nellore from 2009 has become A General Seat.
Congress would be moving the current MP Panabaka Lakshmi to neighbouring Ongole which is now a reserved seat and is planning to field former CM , N Janardhan Reddy from Nellore.
Bezawada(Vijayawada), BJP is organizing a Vijay Sankalp Yatra Meeting. Bezawada Constituency has about 10% Muslims and the Kapus out number every other caste here. This constituency is A Stronghold for chiranjeevi’s praja rajyam.Again, if only Hindus cross vote between assembly and Lok Sabha Elections, BJP can bnk on this seat. Or Else, Even if Advani Ji contests from here, it is impossible for BJP to win
Also, BJP Should field a Strong Candidate in The 3 urban Assembly Constituencies in Bezawada and preferably should field An Upper Caste(Brahmin, since Vaishyas in AP anyway vote for BJP) from Bezawada constituency. Kota Srinivasa Rao, a former MLA from Bezawada East and A Popular Versatile Artist in Telugu Film Industry(He acted alongside Amitabh Bachhan as Villian in Sarkar, for those who might ponder who Kota Srinivasa Rao is)
Tirupati should be another watched out constituency. There is Huge Anti-Incumbency against Chinta Mohan, but, at the same time, BJP’s Candidate N Venkataswamy is not a popular one as well.
In Telangana, 7/17 is in The Best Case Scenario.
4-5/17 is Easily Bankable
February 1, 2009 at 9:26 PM
Hi Raj,
Very good analysis. BJP leaders are watching this site or not. If they see, definitely they will get big advantage. Why am i thinking positive for BJP, because BJP can only form gov, I do not see any chance(0% for congress)for congress at all. I do not want to see any problem for NDA gov after forming gov. It would be major loss to country.
If BJP is able to get (5-10)/42 seats without support of others, it will be great achievement of BJP.
How much BJP may get in assembly min to max no. of seats?
February 1, 2009 at 11:45 PM
Hi, Even Prominent BJP Leaders from The State like Venkiah Naidu, Bandaru Dattatreya and Ch Vidya Sagar Rao repeatedly state Their aim is to win maximum Lok Sabha Seats from AP but, show little interest in state politics.
In Assembly, BJP can win around 25-35 seats mostly in The Hyderabad Region and some Urban Centres
February 4, 2009 at 11:49 AM
Hi,
1. Venkiah Naidu should fight election from AP.
2. Advaniji should fight election from Kerala.
3. Sushma Swaraj should fight election from WB( sixth no. seat descending order winining possibility or midnapore seat) Winning of election is not important
4. Rajnikant should fight election from TN if possible as deputy PM of
India.
All this activity will give good media coverage to BJP in four state and moral boost to BJP workers. After that it will be possible for BJP to develope own very strong base in four state.
Will it be good for BJP or not?
February 15, 2009 at 9:29 PM
Ritesh,
Are you dreaming? Advaniji from Kerala?At the present political scenario BJP is not even in a position to get its deposit from any of the Kerala seats. The parliamentary seat structure also got changed which will hurt BJP at its strong hold TVM. Same with Bengal …As Mamata is moving towards Sonia than BJP ,there is absolutely no chance in any of the 42 seats this time.UP -at the most BJP can 15 seats….So Western India and Karnataka are BJP’s key for 2009 Elections.
February 16, 2009 at 3:41 AM
if mamta moves towards cong it is only going to harm her. bcos a voter in nandigram or singur knows when communists were exploiting them. there was hardly any response from cong leaders as they were enjoying the left front support at that time this will portray opportunistic face of congress party and this will harm mamta banerjee atleast in 3-4 seats. so if fought with all its strength i think bjp has a chance of wining 3-4 seats. alipurduars,balurghat,krishnagar,dum dum & midnapur are places were bjp finshed runner up and margin of their loss was not high.and i dont think left front would be able to repeat their 2004 performance again.so the obvious advantage goes to bjp. at least i think so but for bjp 2 seats from wb is a battle won.
February 16, 2009 at 3:53 AM
with gurjar agitation and an hostile bharoin singh shekhawat, are going to harm bjp a lot in rajisthan. party has to put in its best of the candidates to repeat its 2004 show and also rss has to play a key role. maharashtra has hopes if sp-ncp go together i dont know will it be a reality or not. sharad pawar in his fantasy most wont do that but after all that it does happen bjp-shs 30+ for sure.
February 16, 2009 at 7:08 AM
Mamta’s Departure will Only Help BJP and Not prove otherwise.
InFact, it’s because of Mamta that BJP lost badly in interms of vote percentage in 2004 and 2006.
February 16, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Hi sujay,
If i am saying Advani’s should fight from Kerala, i may be good not 100% good. There are lot of pros and cons of it. It is very difficult for me to write
all things, It will be more than 15 page. If you give me mobile no., i can
explain you over mobile. In which sense i have told.
1. First i want to make very clear, To support congress in Centre by left is fundamentally wrong. BJP is not strong in Kerala, that is why BJP is not able to get profit from this oppourchunity. It is suicidal for left. If ruling and
main opposition are going to sit together, then what is need to cast vote
to left. It is better to cast vote to Congress.People are giving vote to left, because they are not satisfied with congress. If congress and left are
going to sit together , it is better to cast vote to one party.
2. I am fully satisfied(1000%) with Vikas, Advani should fight from Lucknow and Gujrat. It is better option as compare to Kerala. UP person
wants , PM should be from UP. That is why i told if BJP can not field
PM candidate then in this case BJP should field Deputy PM( Ashok Pradhan). U have to see lot of pros and cons. I think in this case cons will be more than pros. That is why it is not right idea. I do not have deep knowledge( like Vikas and Raj).
3. Right now i am in Chennai.
February 23, 2009 at 12:15 PM
everyone read this article,
Be sure that there would be some Muslim voters for BJP in Gujarat this time:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Ahmedabads-Imam-is-Modi-admirer/articleshow/4171018.cms
February 23, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Hi lkadvani.in,
If BJP is able to get 25% to 50% seats in AP,WB,Kerala,TN without the help of big parties(TDP,PRP,DMK,TMC,AIADMK,TRS). then
muslim of india will cast vote to BJP. Just to make friend.
Go through line which is written below.
===========
According to Siddiqui, Modi does not need Muslim votes to win the elections. It is up to the Muslims to make friends with the chief minister,
===========
After that BJP would not need
to face at all any problem to form gov in centre. Lot of people will join
BJP from chris,muslim,TDP,TRS,PRP,Congress,BSP,SP,
DMK,AIADMK.
In 2004 Bhukari(Jama mosque) supported BJP.
Please give your comment.
February 23, 2009 at 1:27 PM
TRS has no choice but to come to NDA post poll. In the Mahakutani, i want the TRS to contest seats in which BJP is week. In the sense TDP / Leftshould from secundarabad, Karim Nagar etc.
My prediction is that BJP will win 4 seats in AP, Zero in TN and 2 in WB.
February 23, 2009 at 1:30 PM
In TamilNadu, the situation is still ambigious.
No One Knows who will be with Whom.
February 23, 2009 at 1:30 PM
Hi lkadvani.in
How can win 2 seats in WB. Please explain.
February 23, 2009 at 1:32 PM
Gorkha land problem is favouring BJP. secondly they have fielded 2 Ex-MPs of CPM who have a considerable base in their constituency
February 23, 2009 at 1:33 PM
Tell me constituency name of 2 exMp.
RAJ : See some ex MP have joined BJP.
February 23, 2009 at 1:37 PM
I really dont remember the names. let me find out and let u know
February 23, 2009 at 1:40 PM
one is from Barasat
February 23, 2009 at 1:40 PM
He joined BJP long back after quitting CPM in 2001
February 23, 2009 at 1:43 PM
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/bjp-ropes-in-two-old-horses-to-win-ls-race/416871/
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/GJMs_poll_carrot_has_BJP_thinking_on_Gorkhaland/articleshow/4055985.cms
Sengupta is the name of the Ex-CPM MP
February 23, 2009 at 1:47 PM
Ritesh,
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/bjp-ropes-in-two-old-horses-to-win-ls-race/416871/
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/GJMs_poll_carrot_has_BJP_thinking_on_Gorkhaland/articleshow/4055985.cms
Sengupta is the name of the Ex-CPM MP
February 23, 2009 at 1:47 PM
ritesh,
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/bjp-ropes-in-two-old-horses-to-win-ls-race/416871/
February 23, 2009 at 1:48 PM
sengupta is the name of the EX-MP
February 23, 2009 at 1:54 PM
Hi Raj,
I was not expecting any seat from AP. After having talk with you i am very happy, (BJP + Goud) may get 8 to 12 seats from Telangana. I hope lot of
people will join BJP before AP election. BJP is other pole of politics.
Everything is useless without BJP or Congress for any party.
Goud has understood the reality. In my opinion Goud has choosen correct
path.
February 23, 2009 at 2:01 PM
Hi Raj,
How are u expecting from BJP in WB.
TMC and congress will fight together or not.
Please give your comment.
February 23, 2009 at 2:01 PM
Hi Raj,
How many seats are u expecting from BJP in WB.
TMC and congress will fight together or not.
Please give your comment.
February 23, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Thank You Arun.
Ritesh, NTP of Goud is merging with PRP.
anyway, it’s Goud who is going to lose NOT BJP.
February 23, 2009 at 2:49 PM
Honestly Speaking , Two to Three for BJP in West Bengal : Darjeeling, Krishna Nagar and Either New Jalpaiguri or Dum Dum
February 23, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Well, Barasat too can be counted. But. let us NOT have very Huge Expectations.
However, BJP Should Concentrate in Potential Winnable Seats in West Bengal
February 23, 2009 at 2:51 PM
Nothing can be said about Hysteric Mamta.she is Immature
February 25, 2009 at 10:32 AM
hi
February 25, 2009 at 10:49 AM
ritesh, How old are You?
February 25, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Friends,
I am attending a function of Shri. Arun Jaitley this weekend under the banner of Friends of BJP.
Do any of you have any specific question, i will put across the same to him!!!
Good questions and opinions are invited.
Mail me at: indiaelections2009@rediffmail.com
Vikas, Raj, Ritesh, Anil, Ak, Murali, Ashwin and Chakresh all ur suggestions for the success of NDA are invited.
February 25, 2009 at 11:44 AM
If you have friends in Mumbai,Do ask them to attend the same.
Event in Mumbai: 28th Feb 09 @: 10:30 AM
Venue: Ravindra Natya Mandir, Prabhadevi (near Sri Siddhi Vinayak Temple).
February 25, 2009 at 1:24 PM
Dear Arun, If You can Actually Pass on my Views on AP and TN, I would be Extremely Happy.
Though Many are saying These Two are Zero Zones, Actually They are NOT.
The Local Media is not giving enough coverage to BJP in AP, knowing very well, that BJP is Strong in Telangana but still they arent giving any importance to BJP Leaders.
Mass Contact Programmes and Door to Door Delivery are Essential.
In AP, It is Essential That BJP Commands Venkaiah Naidu to Nurture BJP in The State,
He Should Contest Assembly Elections in AP.
February 25, 2009 at 1:25 PM
Make “Save Sri Ram Sethu” in AP, unlike TN, in AP, Sri Ram is Worshipped by All The Hindus.
February 25, 2009 at 3:33 PM
Dear LKADVANI.IN
Plz. if u can put the idea of fielding sh. Advaniji from LUCKNOW,along with Gandhinagar.
As I have already mentioned various positives of this step,
this one step will singlehandedly charge BJP like anything in UP.
As Arun Jaitley is In-charge of UP, it will be most appropriate to put this idea before him.
Advaniji as PM candidate of NDA will boost BJP chances any where in any state, but then he should be utilised for most benefiting alternative.
Imean OK if Advaniji contests from Kanniyakumari or Trivandrum or Secunderabad or Vijaywada it may increase BJP seats in TN or Kerala or AP or Telangana, but then this increase max. to the level of 5-6 seats.
But seriously LUCKNOW option will see BJP gaining 15-20 seats.
Advaniji should be convinced thru Jaitley for it and argued he should pay back the debt of Vajpayeeji when Vajpayeeji contested Advani’s Gandhinagar seat in 1996 and took care of it as Advaniji was named in Hawala case.
February 25, 2009 at 4:06 PM
Sure, Vikas
Also I am Planning to raise the issue of Uma from Aligarh, please throw some light in the constituencies in and around aligarh and the prospects of candidate there!!!
February 25, 2009 at 4:34 PM
Hi Vikas,
I wrote Advaniji should fight from Kerala. You have accepted, it may be
profitable to BJP in Kerala.It is not question of profit, in next election(2014)
BJP will get 3 to 8 seats in Kerala. It was not innovative idea but aim was
to create strong base of BJP in Kerala as soon as possible. It was not possible to
create strong base without Advaniji.
But UP is very important for BJP. It is having 80 and BJP is having very strong
base. BJP should not take any risk. I support 1000% to you, Advaniji should fight
from Lucknow, If he fights, it will be major advantage to BJP( Advani is lucky person).
BJP has got this level because of Advaniji’s great contribution.He is the most honest
worker of BJP.In the history of India, i have not found anyone so honest for party( it may
BJP or Congress or JantaDal as Advaniji. This is the reason i like Advaniji most.
Split in Jantadal took place because of individual greediness for PM post.
===========================================
Advaniji as PM candidate of NDA will boost BJP chances any where in any state,
but then he should be utilised for most benefiting alternative.
Imean OK if Advaniji contests from Kanniyakumari or Trivandrum or
Secunderabad or Vijaywada it may increase BJP seats in TN or Kerala
or AP or Telangana, but then this increase max. to the level of 5-6 seats.
But seriously LUCKNOW option will see BJP gaining 15-20 seats.
===========================================
February 26, 2009 at 12:53 AM
Dear Arun,
I envy you that you are able to meet Shri Arun Jaitley ji and talk to him about election strategies. Thanks for this opportunity to relay our thoughts to him. Here are my thoughts around some areas,
I think 2 states that determine majority for NDA Govt is UP & AP. Let me start with UP first , since he is incharge of it as well.
UP :- Recently, I read news about Dalit MPs from BJP questioning Mayawati over development of Dalits in UP. Congress & BSP have failed to uplift Dalits.
I know BJP doesn’t believe in caste or religion based politics. “Justice to all, appeasement to none”, however it is critical to attack BSP on this issue, to make a dent in Dalit votebank. All the more it is good opportunity for Dalit BJP MPs to come into prominence.
There attack on BSP & Congress should be done by 3-4 strong Dalit Leaders in BJP. I request Shri Arun Jaitley to provide numbers, stats so that they can blast Mayavati like how Shri Modi blasted YSR.
If Mayavati takes upper caste from BJP, they should go after her base. Don’t worry about upsetting her, she is too greedy to mind that post poll.
2nd rung BJP leadership should attack Mayavati for making BSP as her personal party rather than party for Dalit Leaders. Challenge her publically to name her successor (She will never do that,as she will looe her authority in that case).
If BJP manage 30% of Dalit vote , they’ll cross 30 seats in UP. That should be the target.
AP: “Enemy’s enemy is your friend” Chanakya, I guess it holds good in politics as well. So all enemy of Congress are friends of BJP. No matter what TDP/PRP say in public , post election they’ll come begging if they fell short to form govt (state).
Since Assembly election are also happening simultaneously, it is a golden opportunity for BJP to get hold of at least 35 seats ( ~ 30% of Telengana seats) and hold the key for state govt in case no one party gets majority.
—————————-
Now 2 other important states , TN & WB
TN :- As people will agree he should try to get hold of DMDK, as Captain is the only one clearly opposed to DMK & ADMK. PMK, MDMK will always negotiate till last to see better opportunities for them.
BJP – DMDK is ~ 20% vote share, they they can easly attract either MDMK or PMK and others. But first alliance with DMDK is critical.
WB:- BJP may not get more than 1-2 seats , but the it needs to do a door to door campaign and its cadre needs to educate people that , Congress , TC & Communist all are together in UPA. So they will be wasting their vote, if they didn’t chose the “Real difference”.
I think BJP has still not emerged from shadows of TC and I know BJP leadership is still soft towards Mamta. I can tell it is very very difficult that there is future of Mamta with BJP, so they need to go strongly against her and others.
Slogun in WB should be the one which Bush gave,
“Either you are with us (BJP) or you are with them (Congress,TC,Commies)”
February 26, 2009 at 7:24 AM
Dear AK, as far as WB is concerned, it’s Not as Bad as it is Being Projected by The Media.
The Division of Malda into North and South Malda Constituency is Benficial to BJP.
Darjeeling is one Seat That would come BJP’s Way.
February 26, 2009 at 7:25 AM
Dear AK and others, About Bengal, I will Post more on East India– commies are losing ground
March 5, 2009 at 2:53 AM
BJP-SS Alliance Finalizes. Same as last time 26-22. So now, BJP doesn’t have any issue with any existing alliance partner.
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1236386
March 5, 2009 at 6:49 AM
ahahahaha
Good News AK Bhai
and It’s A Bad News for Communal News Network
March 6, 2009 at 4:58 PM
Hello!
Something good is happening for BJP in Rajasthan
while Congress is going into problems.
As B S Shekhawat meeting Advani, some agreement reaching between them and BJP started announcing candidates for Rajasthan.
Congress is faced with severe factionalism and infighting, going on MP lines in Rajasthan too. see link (in hindi)
http://www.punjabkesari.com/E-Pap/RJ/raj1.pdf
March 6, 2009 at 5:17 PM
Girdhari Lal Bhargav is a Shekawat loyalist, Raje wanted him to be dropped from Jaipur seat but Advaniji and the RSS incharge of the state (I forgot the name) have done a balancing act by giving tickets to both the Raje and Shekawat camps!!!!
March 6, 2009 at 6:26 PM
I am glad Atleast A Section of Hindi and Local Language Media Arent Anti BJP.
Yesterday I was watching Interview of Venkaiah Ji on HMTV, A New Channel and The Inerviewer, A Senior Journalist was Quite Neutral
March 7, 2009 at 2:28 PM
Raj
Further I also tell u the actual voters (who really go to the polling booth stand in a queue wait at length to cast vote) in this country are not influenced by English media at all, vernacular press and media have a more influence over these voters.
Thanks! this media is by and large neutral. I always give more emphasis on local media in regional languages, I most often refer to Dainik Jagran, Amar Ujala, Punjab Kesari, Rajasthan Patrika, Dainik Bhaskar, Navbharat Times.
March 7, 2009 at 3:04 PM
English media objectively creating BJP-Shiv Sena tensions, but Bal Thakrey & Shiv Sena will remain with BJP. Thakrey appreciated Advani has all qualities to lead nation & suggested more alliances for BJP.
see link which repotr article Shiv Sena’s mouthpiece Saamna, a Marathi letter:
http://www.samaylive.com/news/advani-should-focus-on-alliances-to-become-pm/612552.html
March 9, 2009 at 7:15 AM
Finally BJP SS sort out differences and will go 26 – 22 in state.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/BJP-seals-deal-with-Shiv-Sena/articleshow/4242299.cms
Waiting for BJP JD(U) alliance to finalize.
March 9, 2009 at 11:35 AM
But, Vikas Ji, unfortunately, I am one of Those Disgruntled ArmChair Analyst.
I Wish There is A Provision for us to Vote in The Embassy.
But, unfortunately, There is NO Such Option
March 9, 2009 at 11:35 AM
AK Bhai, Nitish stated e would Remain with BJP
March 9, 2009 at 11:51 AM
Hi,
BJP well wisher should try to bring 25 votes for BJP to polling booth independently by using telephone. These votes may be relative,friends or neighbours. If BJP is able to collect 10 lakh wellwisher over internet. It will have big impact.
Because lot of BJP voters are not going to pooling both.
March 9, 2009 at 11:51 AM
Hi,
This way we can serve BJP.
March 9, 2009 at 1:37 PM
Maha Analysis
March 9, 2009 at 1:38 PM
Maharashtra (my Karma Boomi) analysis:
There are lots of factors that are favoring the NDA (especially the BJP here). I can say with surety that the English media is not projecting the realities here. Things that are favoring the BJP
1) There is no tussle between Sena and BJP as projected. Infact Uddav (NCP friend) has taken a back seat and Balji is calling all the shots now. This is after lot of SHS leaders complained about the son affecting the party’s prospects by flirting with NCP in the state. Balji has been now actively writing for the sake of NDA in his Samna mouthpiece.
2) PWPI is a party which hardly finds place in the dailies but this is a party which played the spoiler for the NDA in 3 seats in the last elections. They got about 30% vote share and came second in 2 constituencies in the last elections, this time they have aligned with SHS. The famous man from Kolaba, Mr.AR Anthulay was a beneficiary of this vote split last time.
Regionwise:
1) Mumbai & Thane: Mumbai and Thane are the traditional strong holds of the SHS-BJP combine. Last election in this area BJP relied on India Shinning campaign and congress on star power, finally people like Govinda, Sunil Dutt emerged winners. In this elections lot of things that are different from the previous one. All the Municipalities in the area are now ruled by NDA. Now that with delimitation the number of seats have gone up to 10 from 7 which is a good sign (11 if I count Mavel- partly Mumbai and partly rural). Finally congress is trying the same trick of Cine stars, trying to rope in Sharukh and Nagma to do the trick which will definitely backfire.
Constituency taste in the region:
A) Mumbai South: In the last two elections this seat has become loyal to Deora family. In the last elections BJP’s J Mehte lost to M deora by 10,000 votes. The total votes in the constituency were 5 lakhs last time and 12 lakhs now with the merger of Mumbai South Central (a SHS bastion). So INC can forget this seat.
B) Mumbai North: Ram Naik will do it this time. People are so angry on themselves for voting out Ram Naik last time.
2) Vidharba (11 seats): The region will vote the SHS-BJP way. The rallies held here by the BJP especially is drawing huge crowds. There is anti-incumbency against the congress and NCP as to the loan waiver benefited only the western sugar belt and neglected Vidharba. Nitin Gadkari, the state president of BJP is a very influential leader here.
3) Konkan – the hype on Narayanan Rane is not true. There is a leader called Anand Geethe(Ratnagiri) from SHS who holds the key.
4) Maratwada: This along with Mumbai was the region were NDA did badly last time. This is Gopinath Munde home turf. Last time he relied on his Brother in law’s India Shinning to do the trick but this time he is working hard here. In fact this region was a watershed region for the NDA in the last elections; they lost all the seats by narrow margin. This time around this region would be a battle ground.
5) Western Belt: This is a NCP bastion, there are only three seats were the NDA can try and win.
A) Pune: There is an anti-kalmadi faction within the congress, the NCP strong man Ajit Pawar is also supporting the BJP here. In the Municipality here the NCP,SS & BJP are in alliance.
B) Solapur: This constituency has a sitting BJP MP (a Brahmin), his popularity is very high here as he has worked really hard in the last 5 years. But now this constituency has become reserved, now BJP is planning to field Kamble a RSS worker in the Dalit areas, the congress is fielding heavy weight SK Sinde. If the sitting MP can bring the upper caste votes, Kamble some portion of Dalit votes and Mr. Yedurappa some protion of Lingayat votes (In Maha traditionally voted INC) then this seat is a possibility.
C) Satara: This is going to be a real fight between SHS and NCP. Last time NCP this seat won by 3000 votes.
March 10, 2009 at 11:49 AM
i have a strong feeling this time around bjp is going to end over congresses dominiance over voter percentages in maharashtra.in 2004 difference was around 1or may be 1.5%. and in terms of seats the saffron in combine could bag good old 30+ mark.my expectation from maha are 32 for saffron combine as there is strong anti-incumbency against df govt in state and peopole are really angry agianst sharad pawar for its agrarian policies.politics in maha is more dependent on caste the bjp has to be carefull in filling candidates. as vote percentage of bsp will strengthen in dalit based tribal areas it will play role of ally to bjp-shs combine instead of hearting its prospects.
some 2004 statistics:
beed : cong 48%, bjp 42%, bsp 1.97%
kolhapur : ncp 49.42%, shs 47.60%, pwpi 1.63%, bsp 1.35%
hingoli : ncp 45%, shs 43.30%, bsp 4.07%.
dhule : inc 46.25%, bjp 44.55%, bsp 3.98%
nashik : ncp 46.85%, shs 44.56%, bsp 2.35%
if bjp put up their 1999 performance by bagging 28 seats which will include their reemergence in mumbai where they in combine could bag atleast 3 of six improving their tally from 5/1 loss in 2004.++ 3 outof 4 in thane district which has been newly divided into 4 constituencies which was 1 in 2004 and is traditionally saffron stronghold+++ every single rise in vote percentage of bsp which is bound to happen (i expect 3-4% rise) is going to hurt congress.if all goes i expect.
bjp+shs: 28 as previously+ 2 seats from 3 newly created from thane + 3 from above i mentioned = 33.
March 10, 2009 at 12:09 PM
I would like to quote the words of Vikasji here: It is more important to win more seats in a state than the highest vote share. That is what is exactly happening. In 2004 Baramathi was won by NCP with a margin of 4 lakh votes. If you put together the victory margins of all the NDA candidates then also it was lesser than 4 lakh.
In this election also i am not worried about what will happen in Mada or Barathi but what will happen in vidharba, Konkan and Maratwada
March 10, 2009 at 12:12 PM
Yesterday i wrote about the popularity of the sitting MP in Solapur, today i find a testimony for the same in Advaniji’s website:
http://www.lkadvani.in/eng/content/view/770/390/
March 10, 2009 at 1:16 PM
Pollsters are giving a lot of seats to congress in Haryana,Rajasthan,MP,Gujarat,Maharashtra,Jharkhand,Orissa,
AP,TN,Delhi. In All these states congress is going to come a cropper.
Congress Tally would fall below 100 and will reach a Maximum of 80 Lok Sabha Seats. NOT More.
March 10, 2009 at 5:35 PM
I agree with you ASHWIN, NDA will rout Congress-NCP in Mumbai , Thane & Pune. As this (State) govt has hardly done anything in last 10 yrs.
For your information BSP vote share was 3.05% in 2004 election. With talks of making Mayavati PM, I am sure it will reach 6-7%, and this will hurt congress more than BJP as it gets lot of votes from its ally RPI , a Dalit based party.
NDA will definitely get 32+ , it has high chances of getting 35 seats.
March 10, 2009 at 6:48 PM
Congress – NCP Alliance wll get Only 10 seats in Maharashtra (7 for congress and 3 for NCP)
March 11, 2009 at 7:35 PM
I hope you are all right, I want the demolition of this creepy dynasty and return to real democracy.
March 12, 2009 at 9:16 AM
Raj,
Dont be surprised, if NCP wins 10 and congress 5 in Maharashtra! NCP will be the larger party after elections
March 12, 2009 at 9:30 AM
We are getting some good news in the North Goa seat
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/UGDP-presence-could-benefit-BJP-in-SG/articleshow/4253706.cms
March 12, 2009 at 10:58 AM
Might be, put together, NCP and inc wont be able to win more than 10 seats in Maharastra
March 12, 2009 at 2:09 PM
I will post the Maharashtra scenario shortly here
March 12, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Constituencies in favor of NDA:
Jalna
1) Jalgaon
2) Raver
3) Buldhana
4) Amaravathi
5) Chandrapur
6) Yavatmal
7) Parbhani
9) Aurangabad
10) Palghar
11) Kalyan
12) Thane
13) Mumbai North (Ram Naik)
14) Mumbai North east (Manohar Joshi will win easily if he contests)
15) Raighad (PWPI alliance with SHS will help)
16) Shirur (ExNCP strong man is SHS candidate, huge adv)
17) Beed (Munde fighting)
18) Ratnagiri (Anand geete vote share: 57%)
Constituencies in favor of UPA
Mumbai North central (BJP candidate Kirtik is a very good person, but it is difficult to beat Gurudas Kamat)
1) Nandurbar
2) Ramtek
3) Bhandara
4) chimur
5) Hingoli
6) Dindori
7) Nashik (tight fight, MNS spoiler for SHS)
9) Baramathi
10) Nagar (INC bastion)
11) Latur (Vilasrao deshmukh home turf, tough fight ahead)
12) Mada ( Sharad Pawar cake walk)
13) Sangli (INC very strong, in municipality it is NCP,SHS & BJP in alliance, If NCP worker cross vote may help BJP)
14) Kholapur (NCP bastion)
15) Hatkanagle (NCP bastion)
Constituencies for real fight
Mumbai South central (advantage BJP)
1) Dhule : Communal riots in the recent past are favoring BJP
2) Akola: Prkash Ambedkar holds the key
3) Wardha
4) Nagpur
5) Nanded
6) Bhiwandi (avd NCP)
7) Mumbai North west (Abu Azmi of SP holds the key)
9) Mumbai South (Adv SHS)
10) Maval (adv SHS)
11) Shiradi (adv INC)
12) Osmanabad (adv NCP, very good candidate)
13) Solapur (May the constituency of next PM if INC wins the general elections, very very interesting constituency, I would call it the mother of all battles seat in Maharashtra
14) Satara (SHS, NCP fight, Adv NCP)
If SHS and BJP work unitedly they can win (10/14) tight seats, even think of retaining seats like Bhandara, Latur (last time won by BJP). The key to success of winning 32 seats lies in hardwork.
March 12, 2009 at 4:43 PM
inc and ncp wont meet even a single seat in Mumbai Pune Belt
March 12, 2009 at 5:18 PM
In my previous post, i have written about 47 constituencies and left out Pune. In Pune there is so much dynamism i could not categorize it into any of the three categories.
Kalmadi is half fighting his own rivals in INC, the NCP wants to vote agianst him. The NCP strong man Ajit Pawar is in favor of a BJP MP. But BSP has upset all the equations here by fielding a prominent Brahmin candidate. out 0f 10 lakh population here, 4 lakhs are brahmins (traditional BJP voters), 4 lakhs are Marathas (traditional INC voters). BJP earlier had decided to field a Maratha candidate and now is in fix whether to counter BSP with a Brahmin candidate or not. MNS is another headache here, depending on the BJP candidate they would field the alternate caste guy here.
Pune Politics is very interesting!!!
As far as ur comment on Mumbai, Thane and Pune Belt. two candidates who cannot be defeated are Gurudas Kamat (INC Mumbai North central) and Vasant shankar rao (NCP Biwandi)
March 17, 2009 at 4:27 PM
That Bloody Varun Gandhi has managed to do in 10 minutes what Congress and communists could not do in 5 years.
In mere 10 minutes, and I mean Yes 10 minutes he has managed to destroy BJP.
Mark my words, if his speech will be forgotten do not worry it will not. This is only the beginning.
Guess he has lived upto his fathers expectation.
March 22, 2009 at 7:55 PM
BJP IS LIKELY TO WIN BOTH SEATS IN GOA AS CONG.HAS STILL NOT DECIDED ON TICKETS.SOUTH GOA WILL SPLIT CONG WIDE OPEN .
March 22, 2009 at 8:53 PM
Thatz A Good News Azavedo Bhai
March 22, 2009 at 10:36 PM
One more survey from Star TV predicted UPA getting 257 seats. I don’t know from where they are getting this numbers.. How they are concluding that UPA has advantage.. Can anybody comment on this survey
March 23, 2009 at 7:26 AM
Any one with a sense of ground realities will know that this projection is quite absurd. Take Tamil Nadu they have given DMK 24 Seats while only about 2 days back a senior Congrssman by name Thamizharuvi Manian has on TV said that due to insensitive way of handling the Lankan Tamil issue the Congress will get a drubbing in the polls and the DMK will suffer the same fate for alligning with the Congress. He even went on to say that the DMK front may loose all the 40 seats (TN & Pondy). As polls draw near the PMK is shifting to the AIADMK and Vijaykanth is now inclined to contest alone and we may see a last minute Lalu act from Karunanidhi as he gravitates to the Left.
In Bihar it is common Knowledge that Lalu is all set for a massive drubbing like in 1999 mainly due to a positive vote to Mr. Nitish Kumar’s sincerec attempts to restore some semblance of administartion.
As regards Maharashtra the BJP is all set to sweep Vidharba region and Pawar may do the same in Western Maharashtra. In the Mumbai and other Urban areas it may be advantage Shiv Sena+.
The opinion poll has perhaps calculated a sweep for the Congress in Rajasthan. Rajashtan is another caste couldron with most castes moving enmasse from BJP to Cong. and vice versa. The party that can convince the majority of castes that it is giving them equal opportunity is likely to do well.
Overal the BJP can individually get around 150+ seats and the NDA atleast 210 to 220. Then we can see parties like the TDP, AIADMK, Trinamool and BJD move towards the NDA.
March 23, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Dear Friends Awn and Hari, starnews is another Horrible channel.This channel is actually controlled by an Evangelical Missionary
March 27, 2009 at 2:50 AM
ok fellas!
the fun begins now, pre-poll prediction for general election. One state a day, detailed analysis. First one to go will be God’s own country – Kerala. All of you are invited to join the discussion there. cheers!
http://promiseofreason.com/series/pre-poll-prediction-2009/
April 4, 2009 at 1:53 PM
Good news for BJP in Rajasthan
KIRORILAL MEENA – Congress dispute has reached the point of no return and he is likely to come back to BJP fold and put his lot with BJP. His wife Golma had resigned from Ashok Gehlot ministry.
Anti Vasundhara Jaswant has been shifted to Darjeeling. His son Manvendra Singh is contestiong from Barmer. another anti Vasundhara Brahmin leader Ghanshyam Tiwari has also been accomodated by alloting JAIPUR City LS seat to contest. Shekhawat has now toned down and working for ADVANI as PM after soime of his associates given tickets.
All factions oif BJP has called compromise and working together. Gujjars are not given due representation by Congress GOvt. they are likely to desert Congress.
April 4, 2009 at 3:04 PM
Good Developmetns in Rajasthan.
If both Gujjars and Meenas support BJP, it would be A Blow to congress.
Also BJP has to keep intact The Brahmin, Marwadi(Jain) Communities and other FC such as Baniyas and Rajputs.
In Adition, Jats who are extremely Angry with congress for forcing anti-Jat ashok gehlot as CM may come back to BJP. Also to Seek Jats Support, BJP should persuade Ajit Singh and Om Prakash Chautala to Campaign for BJP as They are now Allies of BJP
April 4, 2009 at 5:13 PM
Hi Raj,
BJP will get 19 to 21 seats in Rajasthan. No inner fighting in BJP.
April 4, 2009 at 9:25 PM
Nice Blog
http://maharashtraloksabha2009.blogspot.com/
Visit My blog
April 4, 2009 at 9:54 PM
Dear Raj,
Latest from Rajasthan , 6 MLAs of BSP join Congress. Now this will surely fore Kirori lal meena to go back to BJP as now his support (Independent MLAs) is not crucial for Congress to stay in Power.
Also, it is double shaft to BSP which will not be able to become a national party and eventually die in UP as well.
April 4, 2009 at 9:54 PM
Here is the link..
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Six-BSP-legislators-join-Congress-in-Rajasthan-/articleshow/4359434.cms
April 5, 2009 at 5:03 AM
Sure Avi. Will Do.
April 5, 2009 at 5:06 AM
well Said AK Bhai.
mayawati is boued by the media hype after gaining victory on her own in UP. BSP doesnt have A Leader. BSP’s MPs and MLAs can be easily bought and They are Just Independents who need a symbol to fight. Further, They puchase Tickets by donating crores to mayawati and once they get elected, they can be bought for double the price.
April 5, 2009 at 7:39 AM
Hi Raj,
Long time before i wrote Maywati is child in politics. UP is not India. She is having all opporchunistics leaders. When Mayawati was getting 50 MLAs in UP, that time Mayawati was stroing all MLAs in one big hotel. No MLAs was allowed to go outside from Hotel, otherwise it will be bought by SP. The job of Mayawati is serve BJP by extracting Muslims and Christian votes. BSP and SP are very useful for BJP in WB and Kerala, specially Kerala where muslims and Christian are more. SP and BSP will give ticket any dissident muslim and Christian leader of UDF or LDF in Kerala. It will make BJP’s win in Kerala easily.
BJP should keep on working hard in Kerala.
April 5, 2009 at 7:42 AM
Hi Raj,
Actually BSP is investment company. It is like share market.
If person get success then person can make lot of money.
April 5, 2009 at 11:38 AM
NDA Prospects in Rajasthan
Assumptions:
I have worked with the recent assembly elections in mind, apart from the previous three Lok Sabha elections. I will be keeping constituency profiles in view, along with the influence the candidates will be having. Any external factors will also be counted. I will be considering the Congress and the BJP candidates specifically, along with the BSP candidates wherever they will have impact. If there are any independents worthy of mention, they will be accounted for as well.
Edit by chakresh : moved here Rajasthan seatwise pre-poll analysis by maidros
April 11, 2009 at 6:51 PM
Good news in Rajasthan Col. Bhainsla who led the Gujjar agitation has joined the BJP.
April 11, 2009 at 8:57 PM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Gujjar-leader-Bainsla-joins-BJP-/articleshow/4389420.cms
Gujjar leader Bainsla joins BJP
JAIPUR: Gujjar leader Kirori Singh Bainsla, who had led a violent agitation demanding Scheduled Tribe status for the community, on Saturday
joined BJP.
Bainsla, who spearheaded the movement last year during the BJP rule in the state, announced his joining the saffron party saying he needs a “political voice to bring justice to his community”.
He said the issue of Gujjar reservation was not brought up in parliament after three consecutive spells of agitation by Gujjars in Rajasthan and he decided to join BJP in order to voice the demand of the community in parliament.
Bainsla, however, did not specify whether he would contest the coming Lok Sabha elections but said his mission was to voice the demand of Gujjars in parliament.
BJP President Om Mathur said Bainsla’s joining the party was a “step towards social engineering”.
He said there was a need of bridging the gap between the two communities–Meena and Gujjar. Meena community, which is already in ST list, is opposed to inclusion of Gujjar also in the same category.
April 11, 2009 at 9:43 PM
Thatz Great News Hari Bhai
April 12, 2009 at 12:01 AM
It seems that going by the news channels poll survey congress has slight edge than bjp. Ur blog only says that it is advantage BJP? Can u substantiate this with some statistical data. If they get any seat in TN, Andra, and Kerala it will be a miracle. I am praying to god that BJP should be given simple majority on its own, then only we can have a good government. It is shameful that even after 61 years of independence we have not had a good prime minister who takes care of the welfare of the people. Congress has not done enough for the middle class people. Middle class suffered most from these congress government.
April 12, 2009 at 12:32 AM
News channels like ibnlive and ndtv are functioning as mouth pieces for congress and left led third front.
Mr. Prabhakar, had People been influenced by ibn and ndtv and co, in Gujarat,Karnataka,Punjab,Himachal Pradesh,Bihar,Uttarakhand,Chattisgarh and Jharkhand, it should have been congress led/upa governments in power.
PS : In Jharkhand too, BJP emerged as Single Largest Party just short of 3-4 Seats of Complete Majority, however, upa played foul and now, we know that upa has lost Jharkhand which is under President’s Rule.
April 13, 2009 at 10:04 AM
When the elction are at the door, once again political parties started saying we are secular and UPA major agenda is to keep away the secular forces. But do these secular parties are really secular …? No , they just want muslim votes so they want to use this term.See the condition in bihar congress formed UPA with alaince with Lalu, Paswan, Mulayam in centre and after seat sharing problems Sonia gandhi stated Bihar backwardness is due to Lalu. I pray all of you to reject them. We are definetely in the “horns of Dilemma” whome to choose be it any state.But I request LK Advani must be given charge of PM this time. So please give him more hands. I am also a voter not any party men but I have decided.
April 15, 2009 at 10:50 PM
another good news from rajasthan
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Rajasthan-Blow-to-Cong-as-Kirori-decides-to-go-it-alone/articleshow/4396844.cms
April 16, 2009 at 6:37 PM
NCP Candidate Sanjeev Naik Campaigns at Turbhe Stores.
In order to get maximum votes for the UPA contender for the Loksabha elections 2009 Dr Sanjeev Naik, a political rally was organized at the Turbhe store. Many party workers from the allied party participated in the rally.
With the upcoming Loksabha elections all the political parties are busy campaigning for their candidates. A similar political rally was organized at Turbhe stores….
http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.com/2009/04/ncp-candidate-sanjeev-naik-campaigns-at.html
http://www.sanjeevgnaik.com
April 17, 2009 at 12:47 AM
Based on the feedback received from Maharashtra, Jharkhand, hatisgarh, Bihar & UP, I guess BJP led NDA has to wait till 2014 for tasting power. Minorities, SC/STs have voted in a big way in Phase I. Way it is going BJP may end up with 120-125 seats only and NDA at 165-170 seats.
Based on what I have gathered from preliminary sources is given below.
1) Maharashtra : UPA sweep in Vidharbha (UPA = 7-8, NDA = 2-3) and advantage in Marathwada (UPA = 2-3, NDA = 0-1)
2) Jharkhand : UPA has upper hand (UPA = 3-4, NDA = 0-1, Others = 1-2). Yeshwant Sinha, Karia Munda may lose.
3) Orissa : INC sweep (INC = 6, BJP+ = 1, BJD/NCP/Left = 3)
4) Bihar : NDA & RJD+ neck and neck (NDA = 7, RJD+ = 6)
5) UP : INC/BJP wash out. Main fight between SP & BSP (BSP = 8-9, SP = 4-5, BJP = 1-2, INC = 0-1). Yogi Adiyanath, Murli M Joshi may lose.
6) Assam = INC upper hand (INC = 2, BJP+ = 1)
7) Chattisgarh : INC is on a road to recovery. Local level anti-incumbency against sitting MPs is peaking. (BJP = 6-7, INC = 4-5). BJP has miscalculated on this issue.
North East : INC has an upper hand (INC = 4 , NDA = 2, Left = 1)
I was surprised by the feedback and am cross-checking to be really sure.
Would give the final estimates tomoprrow by 8PM after cross-checking with other sources.
April 19, 2009 at 4:45 PM
AS far as prdiction of NDA sweep in west region is concern,i do not agree with their opinion,NDA will get 25 to 28 seat in maharashtra(bjp-13-16,ss-11-13).nda will won 3 seats out of 6 in mumbai.and MNS may win 1 seat in maharshtara(may be nasik.NDA will sweep in North maharshtra but may have to loose some seats in vidarbha.In west maharashtra you may see some miracle.
April 22, 2009 at 3:15 PM
In Navi Mumbai there are talented Players up to national level says Mr.Sanjeev Naik.
Recently Navi Mumbai Sports Programme held in Navi Mumbai former mayor Shri Sanjeev Naik says In future we can get National Players with the Navi Mumbai Krida Sankul. He further stated that the next year this sports krida sankul sports event he will try to organize in his own ground.
http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.comhttp://www.sanjeevgnaik.com/index.html
April 22, 2009 at 3:20 PM
NCP workers deny that Sanjeev Naik’s candidature for the bye-elections came as a surprise for them. They claims that they were, In fact, Preparing themselves for the elections next year.
Gopinath Thakur, NCP’s district president of Navi Mumbai, opnies that Sanjeev Naik is the right canididate for the party in the forthcoming elections.
Posted by: media media – 20th Mar 2009
http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.comhttp://www.sanjeevgnaik.com/index.html
April 23, 2009 at 12:14 AM
From my friends in Raasthan, I figure that the state may sway the congress way and B jp may loose ground here. Can you share the reasons why you project bjp in rajasthan.
I must also disagree that we have not had good prime ministers in the past. India has produced some of the best PMs. It is for that very reason that the institutes and secular foundations created by these leaders is leading to the economic rise if India now.
April 23, 2009 at 9:35 AM
These all are a WILD assumption. Nothing will happened like this.. There shall be no absolute majority of either NDA or UPA or Third front or Forth front.. The System is required a massive change now. The Indian Citizens are all mislead now. Every one is confused whom to vote.
April 23, 2009 at 1:09 PM
Youngest leader Mr. Sandeep Naik
Youth leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Sachin Pilot, Priyanka Gandhi, Milind Deora, Omar Abdullah and Supriya Sule have taken center stage in national politics – crowned king of the Navi Mumbai is Sandeep Naik, whose political roots are near impeccable. Sandeep Naik’s aim is to make Navi Mumbai a place where one is known and judged by one’s work and not caste, creed and religion. Sandeep Naik didn’t start his political career with a bang. Sandeep Naik instead has taken his time to adjust to the pitch of politics, taking one hesitant and even reluctant step after the other only after considerable deliberation. And from a just any other party worker of father’s Ganesh Naik’s brigade rose to become the Standing Committee Chairman of NMMC – for the second consecutive term. Sandeep Naik is a member of the MMRDA committee. It’s been politics from grass root up. Meet voters and meet local party workers.
http://www.blogcatalog.com/blogs/sandeep-naik-inauguarate-road-at-mukesh-gaikwad-ward.html
http:/www.sandeepnaik.com
April 23, 2009 at 2:06 PM
The Youth Leaders like raul vinci , biyanka and co cannot be Associated with Ordinary People of India.
We Indians DONT Identify those lowlives with The Nations Strength — The Youth
April 24, 2009 at 4:04 PM
Standing Committee Chairman Sandeep Naik Demands New Look for Vishnudas Bhave Auditorium
Jan-25,2009
The NMMC Standing Committee also demanded change in colors of seats in Vishnudas Bhave auditorium and different colors seats for VIP rows and approved the tender bid of Rs 24.13 lakhs of Ashirwad Construction for repairs and painting of Vishnudas Bhave auditorium.
J D Sutar demanded the special color seats to identify VIP seats. Standing Committee Chairman Sandeep Naik instructed the administration to change the color of all seats and give a different color to the VIP rows so that the auditorium wears a differently new look from what CIDCO had given. Sandeep Naik also called upon the administration to expedite the taking over of the plot adjoining the auditorium, to facilitate parking of vehicles. Deputy Municipal Commissioner Jagganth Sinnarkar assured to give the auditorium the new look demanded and reserve the first two rows as VIP rows with different color seats.
http://www.blogcatalog.com/blogs/sandeep-naik-inauguarate-road-at-mukesh-gaikwad-ward.html
http:/www.sandeepnaik.com
April 27, 2009 at 11:37 AM
http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.com
http://www.sanjeevgnaik.com/index.html
A similar political rally was organized at Turbhe stores in support of NCP-Congress-RPI candidate Dr Sanjeev Naik. Along with the maximum participation of RPI and Congress party workers, The Planned development is for everybody to see. I Strongly feel that candidates should have vision and my vision is holistic development. In Navi Mumbai we have worked towards reducing the impact of rapid urbanization on the environment . Navi Mumbai’s is the only civic body to have its sewage treatment plant. I believe other civic bodies should also have their own sewage treatment plants. I also have plans for decentralization of sewage treatment plants with the big housing complexes having their own sewage treatment plants.
April 27, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Congress corporator inaugurates new public relation Office at Nerul to Support NCP candidate Sanjeev Naik
13.04.09,
Vaishali Tidke, Congress corporator of ward number 71, Nerul inaugurated her new public relations office in support of Loksbha polls contender Dr Sanjeev Naik. The office was inaugurated by NCP district President Gopinath Thakur.
http://navimumbai-sanjeevjinaik.blogspot.com
http://www.sanjeevgnaik.com/index.html
April 27, 2009 at 5:09 PM
Retu, Rema, Meena & Harsh,
The same nonsense loser from Mumbai is flooding threads with nonsense info.
Trying to write from different names will not change the fortunes of the INC.
April 28, 2009 at 1:16 PM
Now in the name of rashmi!!!
When this non-sense will stop??
April 29, 2009 at 10:48 AM
THE GANESH NAIK WILL MAGIC WORK FOR HIS SON’S VICTORY IN THANE LOK SABHA ELECTIONS 2009……….
For a leader who proved his magic in the 2004 assembly elections’ record victory, today NCP Navi Mumbai Supremo Ganesh Naik is perhaps fighting one of the biggest battles of his political career. Our weekend exclusive today tries to find the answer to the question “Will the Ganesh Naik magic work for his son Dr. Sanjeev Naik’s victory in the Thane Lok Sabha Elections 2009?”
April 29, 2009 at 11:56 AM
Should I block this Sanjeev Naik?
April 29, 2009 at 12:17 PM
Last desperate attempt by NCP. Kalyan and Thane seats would go to the SHS. They will win these seats by a record margin.
Mark my words Shiv Sena will emerge as the largest party from Maharashtra in this elections, they will get a higher tally than the BJP and NCP. The lowest this around would be INC.
Bottomline: Let Sanjeev Naik supporter try their level best and we shall ignore them.
April 29, 2009 at 1:32 PM
Hi,
who is bloody
NCP Navi Mumbai Supremo Ganesh Naik
. Talk national level person.
April 29, 2009 at 3:48 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
May 5, 2009 at 1:06 PM
hey, you are spamming here. you must be a Die Hard NCP Supporter posting under various Titles
May 14, 2009 at 10:47 AM
Hi everybody, get online live updates on 2009 Indian general elections and Indian Assembly elections 2009 at “Altius Directory”.
Get live updates on winners, national parties and about local parties at “Altius Directory”
August 8, 2009 at 8:46 PM
For more updates on Maharashtra Assembly Election visit:http://www.maharashtra.assembly-election.com/
October 7, 2009 at 4:44 PM
Dear All
I request all of you to please vote, before voting do the study of your candidate.
Suggestion – Its better to have hindu leader rather then bangladeshi or pakistani otherwise one day or grand children will have no option other then to convert into islam.
Dear Mumbaikar
Please vote, if you want your mumbai not to be like a Bandra station or mahim,dharavi, bhivandi, pathanwadi, malvani then please vote. Dont think poor stays in SLUM, THERE ARE CROREPATIS. Please visit in slum every where you will see industries.Go to dharavi , malad, Bandra you will see it and agree with me. I bet ….
Parties are thinking of short term no one is bothered about future. Will this politician allow someone to grab their personal property then why mumbai is captured by bangaldeshi and pakistani.