by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 27, 2009India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
You can feel it in air, sense it in atmosphere and hear it on streets, ELECTIONS ARE COMING. The great Indian people are once more excited about the prospects of freedom they enjoy (or at least they think, they enjoy 
) to choose their representative for the highest body of country. As a political blog Promise of Reason will bring to you pre-poll predictions in next whole month.
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
It is in our blood to speculate and argue with or without the facts on matters of importance, irrespective of our region, religion, caste, class or whatever that may divide us. The most bonding nature of India is its argumentativeness and love for speculations. So, here I am once again to predict the possible outcome of general election 2009. I wrote a prediction for election last summers, when Manmohan Singh government was facing no-confidence motion after left pulled their support. At that time it was a mere fun process for me, but the response of readers of this blog has prompted me to do this pre-poll prediction very seriously. So, be it, now when elections are just around the corner, I shall post prediction for one state at a time with as detail as possible analysis.
Disclaimers:
- I want to mention for legal reasons that this is my predictions, not pre-poll survey, so no violation of code of conduct for media.
- I am a neutral blogger. Though the readers of this blog are tilted towards NDA a bit, as the case with whole upper-middle class Indians, who follow online news.
- I invite all Indians and interested people to comment on these posts and share them with their friends, but thoughts expressed by any reader of blog are his/her own and Promise of Reason does not have responsibility for it what-so-ever.
The schedule of election is with us, as in map. Parties are trying to form alliances in this coalition era. We all know that no party can get majority on its own. The importance of regional parties is at its all time high status. (This is deepening of democracy, by the way, and I am damn happy that Indian democracy is finding its root) So, a rigorous phase of coalition formation is going on.
NDA, UPA, and a loose third front are competitors, with each of them trying to woo as many parties in its fold as possible. Though final picture is emerging slowly, we cannot be sure of anything till results come out. There might be last minute tie-ups, break-downs, unofficial partnerships, dissidents, under currents and acts of treason in next month or two. So, wait and watch, to have fun – speculate, share your opinion, bring your friends over here and discuss!
I will take up all states one by one each day. (some bigger states might be dealt in 2-3 parts). So, better subscribe to Promise of Reason by email or feed to stay updated and for the time being enjoy some related posts below. cheers!
April 15th, 2009 at 12:39 PM
I think the congress will be again the sinle largest part and the government will be the same coilation of UPA in the center, may be a drift here or there possible but not much.
April 13th, 2009 at 6:00 PM
Will congress cross The 100 Mark?
in AP, congress wont be Able to Win more Than 12 Lok Sabha Seats.
in TamilNadu, Congress will draw A Blank. Pondicherry may be face saving with congress getting the sole MP seat in Pondy
In Orissa, The BJP-BJD Split is Not helping congress.
in Bihar,Delhi,Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand,Haryana, Congress will draw A Blank.
In Assam,UP,Jharkhand,Gujarat,Punjab,Karnataka,MP,Chattisgarh, INC is likely to Win less Than 5 and A Maximum of 5.
in Tarajasthan and Maharastra, congress will come down to single digit.
Final Tally of congress together with UPA(NCP,DMK and National Conference) will be 75-90
April 13th, 2009 at 5:55 PM
Hi Kiran Raj,
Total seats are 543. You have predicted 485, who will get reaminig 58 seats. I think BJP+, it means BJP+ will get 218 seats.
April 13th, 2009 at 5:26 PM
ELECTION PREDICTION 2009
In Kerala:-
UDF (Cong +): 16 seats; LDF (3rd front): 4 seats
In India:-
BJP + : 154-160;
3rd front + : 144-150;
Cong + : 134-140;
Others: 30-35
April 9th, 2009 at 3:58 PM
KERALA.
In 2004 people voted out Congress just because they were fed up with the internal fights in the party controlling the ruling government in the State.
It is no different with the Communists this time. They think Madni factor would give some edge in malabar area. Now there is no ‘Madany sympathy’ wave. It is more like people are scared of Madani out of jail and surely it would boomerang against the CPI(M).
This time it would not be BJP selling teir votes to UPA,but they casting their votes to make sure a flat defeat of their enemy Number One who is tied up with Madani faction of their rival community.
The left might still get hold of their bastions to end up for a 4 or 5 seats.
April 7th, 2009 at 6:14 AM
Hi,
If you really like predicting election results, Just visit http://www.truthburster.co.in. and share your predicitons.
prasad
April 6th, 2009 at 11:13 AM
Ravi, in The First Place, None can say anything about AP.
All Surveys will Prove Wrong in AP. And the media houses are purposely belittling BJP in Telangana.
But, Everyone Knows that in Telangana, BJP has Good Presence and Particularly in Secunderabad, Malkajigiri and Chevella, BJP will Win.
Congress would be Wiped out in Telangana and except for a few Lok Sabha Seats in Rayalaseema and southern coastal Districts(Largely Because, the opposition isnt strong here), congress would make a clean sweep.
The Only Possitive for congress is that, PRP has lost credibility and TDP is confusing the voters on various schemes as it lacks clarity.
April 6th, 2009 at 10:59 AM
If the congress wins in A.P it will win…….from the history perspective if congress can win in A.p it will win in parliament too. BJP has no strength in A.p except for karnataka. It losing strength in rajasthan and U.P. Congress to lost key allies in bihar and u.p. people like sharad pawar,nitish and chdrababu are like cats on wall, they change their will according to circumstances.
If BJP can keep strong in its ruling states and break some regions away from congress in south it has chances, meanwhile congress sustains to hold it allies in u.p, bihar
it has better chance
April 5th, 2009 at 1:25 PM
It would be The other way Round. due to Madani, All The BJP Sympathizers would vote for UPA as BJP is Helpless in Kerala and has Highly Weakened.
April 5th, 2009 at 12:45 PM
i think it’s 18 seats for LDF & 2 seats for UDF.. IUML no seats…
UDF probables are tvpm & ekm
madani will play a crucial factor for LDF success.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:12 PM
Swami Vivekananda rightly described Kerala as a lunatic asylum by witnessing the caste system and internal feud among People. Things are worse now. The most unprincipled Communists has joined with the terror organization PDP , and the Congress with the Muslim league. Bjp on the otherhand could never influence the youth of the state like in Gujarat , MP. or even like in Karnataka. They are fighting among themselves even without an MLA seat. Hence the state is in a precarious state of affairs. One principled Leader Achuthanandan is never allowed to function smoothlyby His rival Pinarayi Vijayan.As far as the congress is concerned The exit of A.K. anthony fromstate politixcs and the fall of Karunakaran made the party a paper party. I pray almighty to save this state by a young generation who are sensible ,broadminded, rationale , non religious and non seudo secular.
April 3rd, 2009 at 12:38 PM
LDF Cant Win more than 5-7 lok sabha seats
April 3rd, 2009 at 10:58 AM
strength of communist—backing of ezhavas and many leaders are Nairs,they are trying to get into muslims and christians through PDP. fun is that only 5% of christaians/muslims vote for communists and there are no christian muslim leaders in CPM.because many belive communists are against religion.
backed by Kannur lobby …pinnarayi,kodeyeri,ep jayarajan,sreemathi teacher,p jayarajan ,Rajesh-sfi,citu..
the brain behind is MA BABBY & THOMAS ISSAC.
Congress- traditional congress men who are just 20% of population very less compared to communists ,christaians & muslims ,20-40% nairs NSS,and the middle class and upper middle class people.and all the conglameration and collabaration to get a win.which is above ethics,,,,,
hope LDF retains half the seats that they got last time and BJP dont loose more votes than 2004 which would further weakened the party.BJP is lead by nairs alone and RSS,SHIV SENA ETC..
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:51 AM
in kerala itb willl be 17 for the udf and 3 for the ldf triangular fight willl be from palakkad kasargod and trivandrum,in kasargod bjp may get 148000 votes,manjeswar 34000,kasrgod 33ooo,udma 18000,kanhangad 14000,
April 1st, 2009 at 9:14 PM
In Kerala, according to my prediction the LDF will get 14 seats .UDF will get 6 BJP is not in a position to open an account.
March 31st, 2009 at 8:03 PM
This time may be India’s election can come up with a party with a simple majority because in last few elections it has not been the case and electorate is increasingly divided across the country. This trend if to continue will result in slowed growth and difficulty in decision making process on important issues.
http://real-politique.blogspot.com
By Sikander Hayat
March 27th, 2009 at 11:39 PM
[...] Read more here: India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction | Promise … [...]
March 27th, 2009 at 11:07 AM
But, Kerala BJP has a dubious Distinction of Supporting UDF over LDF. It is One State, where BJP Has Very Good Organizational Strength and is Highly Visible, but, in Electoral Politics, comes A Distant Third.
In Palakkad, BJP is likely to Vote for UDF to ensure The Defeat of LDF as Palakkad Muncipality is being run by BJP with UDF’s Support.
The same in Kannur. This is The Home District of CPI(M)’s state Secreatary, Pinayari Vijayan who has been creating Ruckus by joining hands with pdp to Kill RSS and BJP Activists. As BJP cant Win Kannur, here, BJP would vote Tactically to ensure The Defeat of CPI(M)/LDF Candidate.
Kasargod is One seat where BJP might like to take the battle on it’s own against LDF.
In Tiruvananthapuram(Trivandrum), BJP has fielded P K Krishnadas instead of O Rajagopal due to inner party Fued. BJP has certainly lost the battle in Trivandrum even before The Election Campaign started here by Choosing A Weak Candidate. PKK derives Streength Only from Organization and Is NOT A Mass Leader unlike O Rajagopal.
March 27th, 2009 at 9:22 AM
UDF – 12-13
LDF – 7-8
Lot of experts feel that there is a huge anti-LDF wave is sweeping Kerala and hence UDF would would get around 18-19 seats (Similar to LDF in 2004). But the reality is that BJP is the spoiler for UDF in kerala. In about 7-8 constituencies like Trivandrum, Kannur, Ernakulam BJP has its vote share in double digits. Infact in Palagad they have a voteshare of 18%. The BJP will hurt the INC in all these constituencies. Hence UDF cannot clean sweep the state.
PDP a fundamental organisation has now thrown weight behind CPM and hence they would compensate for IUML (part of UDF). It is the churches that will give constituencies like Trissur to UDF.
March 27th, 2009 at 9:19 AM
In Kerala, it is most likely to be Advantage UDF(UPA at National Level). The JD(S), Erstwhile Ally of The Ruling LDF in Kerala Ended it’s Honeymoon with LDF and has filed for Divorce over Seat sharing where CPI(M) has shown high handedness and has even irritated CPI. The Kerala unit of
JD(S)is in crisis as it is moving towards UDF against the Wishes of Deve Gowda.
Further,LDF is miffed with infighting between
V S Achutannandan and Pinayari Vijayan Camps of CPI(M. The Kerala High Court Indicting the LDF of Shielding islamic Fundamentalists will add to LDF’s Troubles. In Addition there is Anti-Incumbency against The LDF in The state.
Therefore, LDF is at it’s Weakest Ebb in Kerala this time.
It would be A Clean Sweep for UDF.
As far as BJP is concerned : Kasargod is one constituency, where BJP has High Chances.