by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 27, 2009India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
You can feel it in air, sense it in atmosphere and hear it on streets, ELECTIONS ARE COMING. The great Indian people are once more excited about the prospects of freedom they enjoy (or at least they think, they enjoy 
) to choose their representative for the highest body of country. As a political blog Promise of Reason will bring to you pre-poll predictions in next whole month.
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
It is in our blood to speculate and argue with or without the facts on matters of importance, irrespective of our region, religion, caste, class or whatever that may divide us. The most bonding nature of India is its argumentativeness and love for speculations. So, here I am once again to predict the possible outcome of general election 2009. I wrote a prediction for election last summers, when Manmohan Singh government was facing no-confidence motion after left pulled their support. At that time it was a mere fun process for me, but the response of readers of this blog has prompted me to do this pre-poll prediction very seriously. So, be it, now when elections are just around the corner, I shall post prediction for one state at a time with as detail as possible analysis.
Disclaimers:
- I want to mention for legal reasons that this is my predictions, not pre-poll survey, so no violation of code of conduct for media.
- I am a neutral blogger. Though the readers of this blog are tilted towards NDA a bit, as the case with whole upper-middle class Indians, who follow online news.
- I invite all Indians and interested people to comment on these posts and share them with their friends, but thoughts expressed by any reader of blog are his/her own and Promise of Reason does not have responsibility for it what-so-ever.
The schedule of election is with us, as in map. Parties are trying to form alliances in this coalition era. We all know that no party can get majority on its own. The importance of regional parties is at its all time high status. (This is deepening of democracy, by the way, and I am damn happy that Indian democracy is finding its root) So, a rigorous phase of coalition formation is going on.
NDA, UPA, and a loose third front are competitors, with each of them trying to woo as many parties in its fold as possible. Though final picture is emerging slowly, we cannot be sure of anything till results come out. There might be last minute tie-ups, break-downs, unofficial partnerships, dissidents, under currents and acts of treason in next month or two. So, wait and watch, to have fun – speculate, share your opinion, bring your friends over here and discuss!
I will take up all states one by one each day. (some bigger states might be dealt in 2-3 parts). So, better subscribe to Promise of Reason by email or feed to stay updated and for the time being enjoy some related posts below. cheers!
April 21st, 2009 at 11:20 AM
Guys!!!! Attention Please!!! Don’t you all think you all are wasting your time and energy in some topic which is not within your reach? Now India is no more new to election and the voters are well aware of the fact that no political parties or the Leaders are for the public. If they are doing something for Public (i.e. Construction of a Road, Hospital or School/College etc. etc.), they have their hidden Goal against it. It may be Indian national Congress(INC), Bharatya Janata Party(BJP), NCP, CPI, CPI(M), RJD, LJP, SP, BSP, DMK, AIADMK, MDMK (u name it).. all these parties are not for Public but for themselves. Have you all noticed the declaration of Assets/Cash (never true figures) of each leader while submission of Nomination? Just notice the figure increments in next election? What is the pay and Allowances of these Member of Parliament? How these Members gathers so much of Money and assets withing Five years? What the Income Tax Department is doing against it? Why they are not questioned what is their source of income along with their family members?” Where do they got their seed money to start business? What were their mortgages if taken loan? Where they earn these mortgages? What is their annual balance sheet from the time they first contested in General election? Can any one answer these? SO NO POINT breaking your head on these points as no voters or Leaders will listen to you guys… Sorry for being a little hush!!!
April 20th, 2009 at 7:58 AM
DMK —7
NO Way.
DMK would get just 3 MP Seats The Maximum!!!
April 19th, 2009 at 11:23 PM
My Prediction is as follows:
IF U want statewise details sent a mail to me.
Con(I) 93-120
BJP 148-194
BJP Ally 47
Left 35-41
BSP 28
SP 26
AIDMK 16
TDP 14
NCP 11
RJD 8
DMK 7
BJD 7
TMC 7
PMK 6
April 19th, 2009 at 9:33 AM
Hi Pramod,
I am agree with you 100%.
April 19th, 2009 at 1:15 AM
The way scenario is changing, Congress is loosing its edge. Tytler issue, Gulam Nabi’s brother joining BJP, small but an alliance in Tamil Nadu, retired defense personnel supporting BJP openly, first time they ever did it. These things are gradually building support base for BJP. Still a month is left. NDA is heading towards getting majority.
April 18th, 2009 at 11:58 AM
congress is a LOSER.
upa cant even cross 100 Mark
A Complete congress rout on The Cards
April 18th, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Bhai ho
congress is LOSING in AP and that was Clearly Visible in Yesupaada Samuel Reddy’s face after the first Phase of Polling
April 18th, 2009 at 11:07 AM
It is Congress which is going to win in AP. Dr. YSR has done more than all the CMs together has done. No other CM has the guts to undertake the massive developmental projects, he did in every sector like major irrigation to give to crores of acres of land, millions of homes for poor, Arogyasree to help the poor in ill health,108,pension to the old, poor and needy, free education to the poor… to name a few.
If any one is honest and answerable to his self – he should vote for YSR. I believe that will happen and Congress and YSR will be the winner. Jai Ho.
April 15th, 2009 at 3:26 PM
NO Way Imraan.
The Moment Ashok Gehlot became CM, congress LOST Rajasthan.
The Jats,Meenas,Gujjars HATE AG.
April 15th, 2009 at 2:45 PM
Congress has fieled some new and young candidate and has a chance of winning at least 15 seats in Rajasthan.
April 15th, 2009 at 1:29 PM
Mr. Kahn, It is A Fact that in Every Terrorist Attack, Hindus Are Killed Specifically.
There are unmpteen Fatwas Issued by Ulema. Why NOT A Single Fatwa Against Jehad?
NO.
Because, it’s your Dream to completely Islamize India.
If Muslims are Secular, Muslims Should Reject Sharia and Accept The Constitution of India, Discard Minority Satus and Voluntarily Sign Petition to Cancel Haj Subsidy and Parade for Uniform Civil Code.
You are in India and Show in Unanimity that Kashmir Belongs to India, Oppose Bangladeshi Immigration and campaign for Their Ouster from India.
April 15th, 2009 at 1:23 PM
Mand Mohan is The WORST Lowlife.
No One Reaaly Knows he is The PM.
That slave mofo mand mohan is so sure of congress loss that he is unwilling to contest elections.
April 15th, 2009 at 1:23 PM
Mr. Raj
Be practicle and think of country instead of thinking anit hindu or anit muslim. think of the national development and a country as a people and as a combine force. i have lot of hindu friends we share a great chemistry but few narrow minded people and the parties try to make some differences. i hope it will not effect in india as people here living from centuries together.
April 15th, 2009 at 1:22 PM
STOP Spamming Khan or Else you Will BE Banned.
April 15th, 2009 at 1:17 PM
checkresh
Yes u r true leader ship problem is there in congress. Sonia Gandhi is not willing to take the responsibility and rahul still too young and need experience for the nobel post. even Manmohan singh is a gentle person but the powers are shared between the senior leaders. i prefer Manmohan sigh to get full authority and he can handle the duties. We all know he is one of the best finance minister of India and can supervise other economic situation easily. But even thoug congress has to improve a lot and recruit highly qualified and dedicated persons with no criminal back ground.
April 15th, 2009 at 1:13 PM
Congress is Anti Hindu.
We Wont Allow Anti Hindu Parties to Flourish in India.
Mr. Khan, congress is taking the Hindu Votgers for granted, it’s ONLY The Biased Media, Particularly the English Media and the so called National Media which is trying to protect congress.
But, it WONT Happen.
April 15th, 2009 at 12:58 PM
@ khan
yes congress is better for stability, but the main problem is with the leadership they have. They are creating more than one power centers in gov and at this crucial time in history decision making is biggest challenge.
by the way, thanks for appreciation of blog
April 15th, 2009 at 12:55 PM
Mr. Raj i prefer the congress party a bit upper hand compare to other parties in education and stability. i do agree with you that even congress has to improve a lot but viewing all present parties i prefer it a bit good.
April 15th, 2009 at 12:49 PM
I really appreciate this web site to allow user to published their views. predicitons may differ according to theh personell choice but people have to be diginifed in selecting the governement in the center, state or local. there should not be a communal thinking, the national thinking must be first preference and most important a dedicated and correct person to there to rule the governences. i hope some day a proper and educated highly qualified persons may get the tickets to select for this nobel roles.
April 15th, 2009 at 12:41 PM
NO Way Khan. People of India WONT Allow Evanjehadi congress to cross 100 Mark in Parliament