by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 27, 2009India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
You can feel it in air, sense it in atmosphere and hear it on streets, ELECTIONS ARE COMING. The great Indian people are once more excited about the prospects of freedom they enjoy (or at least they think, they enjoy 
) to choose their representative for the highest body of country. As a political blog Promise of Reason will bring to you pre-poll predictions in next whole month.
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
It is in our blood to speculate and argue with or without the facts on matters of importance, irrespective of our region, religion, caste, class or whatever that may divide us. The most bonding nature of India is its argumentativeness and love for speculations. So, here I am once again to predict the possible outcome of general election 2009. I wrote a prediction for election last summers, when Manmohan Singh government was facing no-confidence motion after left pulled their support. At that time it was a mere fun process for me, but the response of readers of this blog has prompted me to do this pre-poll prediction very seriously. So, be it, now when elections are just around the corner, I shall post prediction for one state at a time with as detail as possible analysis.
Disclaimers:
- I want to mention for legal reasons that this is my predictions, not pre-poll survey, so no violation of code of conduct for media.
- I am a neutral blogger. Though the readers of this blog are tilted towards NDA a bit, as the case with whole upper-middle class Indians, who follow online news.
- I invite all Indians and interested people to comment on these posts and share them with their friends, but thoughts expressed by any reader of blog are his/her own and Promise of Reason does not have responsibility for it what-so-ever.
The schedule of election is with us, as in map. Parties are trying to form alliances in this coalition era. We all know that no party can get majority on its own. The importance of regional parties is at its all time high status. (This is deepening of democracy, by the way, and I am damn happy that Indian democracy is finding its root) So, a rigorous phase of coalition formation is going on.
NDA, UPA, and a loose third front are competitors, with each of them trying to woo as many parties in its fold as possible. Though final picture is emerging slowly, we cannot be sure of anything till results come out. There might be last minute tie-ups, break-downs, unofficial partnerships, dissidents, under currents and acts of treason in next month or two. So, wait and watch, to have fun – speculate, share your opinion, bring your friends over here and discuss!
I will take up all states one by one each day. (some bigger states might be dealt in 2-3 parts). So, better subscribe to Promise of Reason by email or feed to stay updated and for the time being enjoy some related posts below. cheers!
May 4th, 2009 at 10:28 PM
Gaurav –
First, I don’t really care about religion. Every one practice what they want as long as Church does not decide who you should vote or priest does not decide whom you should not vote or Imam does not decide who you should vote. All people should have same rights: Not one law for each religion or caste. You can’t have laws that gives full independence to Church to do whatever it wants to do with the funds they raise but all the Hindu temples should give all the money to Govt. You can’t have one religion practice polygamy different from constitution.
Second, I want a Govt. with long term vision for India not just some welfare programs to keep poor people poor all the time. For 50+ years, COngress followed the policies of giving bread crumbs to poor and make them rely on Govt. for ever. For the first time, I realized what PVNR and Vajpayee did with reforms. I was sold on BJP’s vision of Golden Quadrilateral. I was also sold on BJP’s vision of River Linking. Both these long term ideas were dumped by CON party since it does not make sense to promote the DYNASTY. I know a lot of people look for short term and hence BJP will be forced to play some short term welfare measure. But I hope they keep long term vision: Water, Roads, Clean Electricity and create an environment where people can create opportunities.
May 4th, 2009 at 6:59 PM
ManojK: To an ordinary person you may seem to be an offensive hardliner fascist, but people like me can easily understand and share your desperate concerns – dynasty imperialism, media control (by Christian and Communist organizations), Islamic fundamentalism (taking due advantage of our secular, tolerant and patient cultural ethos), Christian missionary propaganda (‘Jesus is real, Ram was fake’ – instead of saying both are real/ imaginary), corruption (black money in Swiss accounts), etc. I voted this 30th April for the 1st time in my life (travelling 500 kms. to do that) because as an Indian I really want to put an end to all this mediocrity, fear, regressiveness and procrastination.
I predicted 134 for the BJP on a popular site, where it’s difficult to actually know what are you doing until you get the final numbers. I’m hopeful that youngsters like me who want a serious change will do their bit, along with the rest of sensible concerned Indians, to place BJP at its rightful position.
May 4th, 2009 at 6:08 PM
Gaurav – BJP is getting way more than 134.
The CON gang is in panic. Another DYNASTY DOG Pankaj Vohra writes:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=HomePage&id=2700cead-3538-42d9-abdd-145933950a0d&Headline=We+could+be+in+for+a+short+govt
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With barely a few days left for the fourth phase of elections to be held, there do not seem to be any clear winners in the 15th Lok Sabha polls. This is the most issueless election ever and both the Congress and the BJP have not been able to set any agenda. Both seem to be contesting , as others are doing, in a political vaccum. This explains why regional parties have already started flexing their muscles and are certainly going to play a major part in the formation of the next government.
The BJP, which, at one time, found it difficult to cross the three-figure mark, has done reasonably well in the first three phases and is certainly past the century mark. Many analysts also believe that at the end of the third stage it could even lead the pack. But it is the fourth phase, which is crucial for the Congress. If it is able to win or retain seats already in its kitty, it should have no problem in emerging as the single largest party.
The number one slot has become important since whoever gets the maximum seats will have more options open to it than the others. For instance, the party that comes out on top will certainly be in a position to be the first to be invited to form the government. The party shall always have the option of either sitting in the opposition knowing well that the stability of the next government may always be in doubt. The largest party similarly may also determine which regional leader or party should lead the government if it decides to support the government from outside.
The likely scenario emerging after three phases also has given ample indication that it will be increasingly difficult for either Dr Manmohan Singh or Mr L.K.Advani to lead the next government. Though nothing can be said with finality in politics, things seem to be moving in this direction.
The BJP is apparently the first party to acknowledge the difficulties in Advani becoming the next Prime Minister. The suggestion by Arun Shourie, Arun Jaitley and Yashwant Sinha that Narendra Modi could be a possible PM nominee in the post- Advani set-up is not without significance. The suggestion shows the anxiety of these leaders over the fate of the BJP and Advani in the post-poll scenario. It also indicates that the uncertainty over the BJP assuming the leading role has given way to a power struggle within the saffron brigade.
Sushma Swaraj, another leading BJP leader was the first to criticise her own colleagues for bringing up Modi’s name while the contest was still on. She cited Hindu scriptures and traditions and said that sons do not participate in Rasam Pagri when the father is still around. She, in effect, lashed out at the supporters of Modi for the top position. Even Venkaiah Naidu, whose own disillusionment with the way things are happening within the BJP, has increasingly distanced himself from any suggestions regarding Modi being made the top BJP boss. Rajnath Singh whose seat is being hotly contested also chose not to give any credence to the Modi brigade.
What is happening in the BJP is also the result of the reshuffle within the RSS where Mohan Bhagwat, a stickler for ideology, has taken over. He is allergic to Advani and some of those who are today trying to prop up Modi. His opinion about Modi may be favorable but he certainly wants to bring about a change within the BJP with some others in mind. He has been able to contain the ABVP lobby within the RSS and is now set to assert himself in the post-poll scenario. It is on his instructions that the RSS cadres are working hard for the BJP nominees even in constituencies like East Delhi where the Congress appears to be in a strong position till date.
The Congress is banking on the fourth and fifth phase to give it the number one slot. But it is also equally worried about the final result. Poor poll management has jeopardised the party’s chances in many constituencies. But, despite that, it hopes to cross or equal its 2004 score of 145 seats. The party has not changed its position regarding the prime ministerial candidate as yet. But post-poll compulsions may compel it to adopt a different strategy.
The Congress managers know that if the Congress and the BJP add up to over 272, the halfway mark, then no government can be formed at the Centre without the participation or support of either of the two parties regardless of the understanding amongst regional players.
The game is wide open as of now and in this lacklustre and issueless election, the outcome may be full of surprises for the big two if they are unable to assess the ground realities and act accordingly. The 15th Lok Sabha will be short-lived unless there is a convergence of interests among some regional parties.
Between us.
May 4th, 2009 at 6:05 PM
Gaurav – It is a strategy by DYNASTY loyal dogs in the media. The dynasty throws bread crumbs. COMMIES, Hard core Christians, Fundamental Muslims, DYNASTY CRONY DOGS all united in their purpose.
Christains want to convert a billion Indians to their religion. They need friendly Govt. which helps them with Govt. machinery and propaganda. They all control the media.
May 4th, 2009 at 5:45 PM
I don’t understand why BJP supporters are always labelled as hardcore fundamentalist Hindus, when on the contrary many of its young, urban, well educated, middle class backers like me are atheists. I vote for BJP’s ability to govern better and for cultural nationalism, not for religionism or Ram mandir.
May 4th, 2009 at 5:40 PM
My prediction:
BJP: 134
INC: 132
BSP: 64
CPM: 26
SP: 22
DMK: 21
RJD: 19
NCP: 12
UPA: 170+
NDA: 160+
Third front: 140
April 29th, 2009 at 3:46 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
April 28th, 2009 at 2:07 PM
Rohit, thatz NOT True.
in Punjab, congress lost from the jaws of victory by giving clean chit to jagdish tytler, the christian who is main accused in 1984 Anti-Sikh Violance(yeah that is secular)and sonia’s personal secretary. The media feels, congress has edge as mms is a sikh. but, he has mortgated the sikh pride to white trash and he has lost all respect in Punjab.
It is foolish to predict Rajasthan and Delhi Seats in General Elections 2009 based on 2008 Assembly Elections.
April 28th, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Rohit probably u are missing few points
1)People in Gujarat ove Modi so much that any statement like “Maut ka Saudagar” etc against him provokes them,Thats why Gujarat saw that high voter turnout in 2007 assembly
2) COngress is doing what Exactly BJP needs..It needed one fake anti-modi wave to be created by COng, so that BJP supporters come and vote,that has happened
April 28th, 2009 at 10:08 AM
As time goes by, it looks like UPA is having more of a slight edge over BJP. And with Modi being named in the SIT prove, BJP migth end with less than 100 seats. Also SAD in Punjab are facing problems, and BJP have lost more allies than Congress in the pre poll drama.
Overall, I know from my Muslim friends that they will readily vote for NDA because of the pro-development agenda but NDA and BJP in particular will have to drop its Hindu Taliban outlook. They have to be Indians first and Hindus second. Only then can BJP form government. I’m afraid BJP has missed the boat this time
April 26th, 2009 at 12:06 AM
Those who say YSR did this or did that should realize that the is also top in corruption, he played dirty politics bringing Rayalaseema factionism to Hyderabad . His son Y.S.Jagan looted government money and established Saakshi TV, Saakshi Newspaper , power plant and Cement factory . Most of his cabinet ministers are involved in looting land from the poor and swindling public money worth crores.
April 24th, 2009 at 3:38 PM
Mr. Rajiv, I am Actually An Atheist and I am Completely Against These Abrahamic Death Cults from The Desert and Political Correctness which has Actually Destroyed India
April 24th, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Dear Raj, please don’t be hush on a participant that way. He is a die hard fan of congress but what about you buddy? U too seems like a die hard fan of Hinduism… Be neutral for a moment and ask yourself, do you really concern about the future of our country in the hand of present political system? Are we in a safe hand? Why can’t we be more clear about our thought and vision? Secularism is no more important part as the same time division of castism, and religion is also shameful part of our country. Neither Congress nor BJP or any other party whether regional or Communism can change the fate of our country. Look at these so called communism, the leaders are the richest and the workers (Supporters) are poorest in the country. I urge you all to think with a cool brain (without the influence of any party leader) and think, are you following the correct path. Your hard work is making a few people more powerful and rich but in returns you are happy with a peanut. They eating up the fruit and giving you the skins but you are happy and fighting among yourself for no reason. Think Boss think, put some pressure on your brain. Think by brain not by heart if you want to rise up in future by securing the future of India our motherland.
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:40 AM
of, I forgot to Add, Criminbalization.
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:40 AM
congress is synonomous with Corruption,Communalism and Castism
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:40 AM
Ambar, you must be A Pseudo Secular Sickularist.
Even A Die Hard fan of white Trash KKK and slaves of antonio maino and her illegitimate son raul vinci, fathered by ottawio quattrochhi know that congress’s tally would fall below 100 this election.
live in your lalala land and commit suicide on 16th may 2009
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:31 AM
Dear Ambar, u seems to be a die hard fan of congress. Just tell me what Karnataka has gained in 52 yeas ruling from Congress? Leave aside BJP or other Party. Instead of Change of Party why you people can not realize the fact that a massive change is urgently required in the present Election procedures. How much more you can take from these so called hypocrite political parties? Enough is Enough now. Grow up some sense in the public now.
April 23rd, 2009 at 12:20 AM
No one seems to be talking about a karnataka sway. The people may look for a change again …
Corruption and general discontent are at an all time high, while infrastructure and facilities for public seem to be progressively degenerating, generally the reasons for a change in the govt. Congress will gain ground.
April 22nd, 2009 at 9:53 AM
Dear SHANTHESH.. I know there shall be a ,massive changes in the present political system. People shall go for the candidates instead of the party. The Contender shall have minimum educational qualification apart from practical experiences. The candidates shall appear in public interviews in respect of proving their abilities to sit as an Minister of Member of Parliament. The Income Tax, Central Vigilance and Central Bureau of Investigation department shall be made independent and the Ministry shall not have any kind of Control on them as Election Commission of India. There shall be a massive investigation on properties and Money of the contender of Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha Members before declaring fit. The President shall be empowered to control these independent departments directly. The Presidential/Vice President and Governors post shall be made from non political background. If these are feasible than I can see light behind the absolute darkness. Yes, questioning about me joining the system is open but there shall be a few exercise to be made before that to motivate people and the system. If YES there shall be many like minded people who want global development instead of personal development as now.
April 21st, 2009 at 11:33 AM
I agree with u Rajiv,
Please go and join politics.U may not get any party ticket..But stand as independent do some good work definitely ANay party would recognize u..
If u dont wnat that please go and vote and choose the better party/candidate or combination…
If you are not voting for all these reason, Then either change the system probably dictatorship or monarchy(anyway India is half monarchy) Or else if u r not voting just dont talk for next 5 years