by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 27, 2009India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
You can feel it in air, sense it in atmosphere and hear it on streets, ELECTIONS ARE COMING. The great Indian people are once more excited about the prospects of freedom they enjoy (or at least they think, they enjoy 
) to choose their representative for the highest body of country. As a political blog Promise of Reason will bring to you pre-poll predictions in next whole month.
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
It is in our blood to speculate and argue with or without the facts on matters of importance, irrespective of our region, religion, caste, class or whatever that may divide us. The most bonding nature of India is its argumentativeness and love for speculations. So, here I am once again to predict the possible outcome of general election 2009. I wrote a prediction for election last summers, when Manmohan Singh government was facing no-confidence motion after left pulled their support. At that time it was a mere fun process for me, but the response of readers of this blog has prompted me to do this pre-poll prediction very seriously. So, be it, now when elections are just around the corner, I shall post prediction for one state at a time with as detail as possible analysis.
Disclaimers:
- I want to mention for legal reasons that this is my predictions, not pre-poll survey, so no violation of code of conduct for media.
- I am a neutral blogger. Though the readers of this blog are tilted towards NDA a bit, as the case with whole upper-middle class Indians, who follow online news.
- I invite all Indians and interested people to comment on these posts and share them with their friends, but thoughts expressed by any reader of blog are his/her own and Promise of Reason does not have responsibility for it what-so-ever.
The schedule of election is with us, as in map. Parties are trying to form alliances in this coalition era. We all know that no party can get majority on its own. The importance of regional parties is at its all time high status. (This is deepening of democracy, by the way, and I am damn happy that Indian democracy is finding its root) So, a rigorous phase of coalition formation is going on.
NDA, UPA, and a loose third front are competitors, with each of them trying to woo as many parties in its fold as possible. Though final picture is emerging slowly, we cannot be sure of anything till results come out. There might be last minute tie-ups, break-downs, unofficial partnerships, dissidents, under currents and acts of treason in next month or two. So, wait and watch, to have fun – speculate, share your opinion, bring your friends over here and discuss!
I will take up all states one by one each day. (some bigger states might be dealt in 2-3 parts). So, better subscribe to Promise of Reason by email or feed to stay updated and for the time being enjoy some related posts below. cheers!
May 9th, 2009 at 10:03 AM
Raj,
BJP is not in alliance with HLD(Bhajan Lal) but with INLD(Chauthala). But Cong might win 4 seats in Haryana.
May 9th, 2009 at 10:01 AM
In Haryana, congress would draw a Blank.
The Government is highly unpopular.
The Combined vote of BJP-HLD(R) is more than that of congress.
where do you guys get your info?
and in Delhi, upa is likely to draw a blank.
all sitting MPs of congress are going to lose.
May 8th, 2009 at 3:09 PM
In Rajastan BJP will get around 15 & INC around 9. Because there the poll turn out is 15% less compared with last Assembly elections. And in many places this time Muslim comunity, which is a strong supporter for INC is away from the voting. It indicates that BJP can retain many seats contrary to analysts expectations. And one more reason for congress not to perform well in this state is that it has failed to give the tickets to right aspirants.
May 8th, 2009 at 2:57 PM
Raghuram: BJP – 225? 33 in UP alone? Where did u get this from?
May 8th, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Phase IV report:
Rajasthan: NDA:11 UPA:12 CPM: 1 Indpt: 1
Delhi: NDA: 2 UPA: 5
Haryana: NDA: 3 (BJP:2, INLD:1), Bajan Lal:1, BSP:1, UPA:5
Punjab: NDA: 0, UPA: 4
UP: NDA: 9-10, SP: 4-5, BSP: 2-3, INC: 0-1
WB: Left retain ground to an extent, no report about numbers.
May 8th, 2009 at 7:53 AM
Rave, I am NOT in India
and Ilyas, there is NO Scope of upa-third front alliance or partnership.
NDA is Forming Govt.
Biju, BJP has A Fair Chance in Kasargod
May 8th, 2009 at 3:14 AM
Raj,
If you’re planning to vote for BJP, then please don’t change your mind.
Thanks
May 8th, 2009 at 2:40 AM
Phase IV
Delhi Touch and Go 5-2 or 4-3 in UPA favor.
Rajasthan – 14-7 in BJP favor (2 Independents and 2 Toss ups)
Punjab – Tie 2 INC – 2 NDA
Haryana – Not yet knows
WB – CONG and TMC is not doing well… Rahul Press conf damaged the alliance
May 8th, 2009 at 2:09 AM
MY PREDICTION IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PARTNERSHIP GOVT. OF UPA AND THIRD FRONT. MANMOHAN AND MAYA WILL SHARE 2.5 YRS.EACH AS PM.
May 8th, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Raghuram.. 2 seats for bjp in kerala phooo….phoo..
May 7th, 2009 at 5:52 PM
There is a surprise new.
Latest trends show that BJP alone can cross 225 seats ever highest after 1999.
BJP is doing its best in 4 phase..
Delhi they may get 5 /7.
UP much improved 33 seats.
Shocking they are getting 2 seats in Kerala (2 phase analysis)
Surprisingly they are getting 7 seats in AP from 0.
TN they are expecting 2 seats.
Update you with latest wait and watch.
May 7th, 2009 at 10:06 AM
Gaurav you poor soul. It is fundamentalist like you that give BJP a bad name. I will be voting away from BJP to make sure that illetrates like yourself donn;t come into power.
May 5th, 2009 at 6:41 PM
Manojk: thanx for ur last post.
May 5th, 2009 at 6:40 PM
Hmm..upper castes may go for BJP this time, esp. those Brahmins (9% of UP population) who supported BSP earlier. Someone also said that UP upper castes may support BSP on state level elections for their immediate interests, but on the national level, they’d rather have a party with deeper and wider agendas, programmes and concerns.
May 5th, 2009 at 6:30 PM
Gaurav Bhai, The Rainbow Coalation mayawati has build has been broken by her after she invited Anti Hindutva muslim leaders with criminal background and those who ushered in terrorist activities against Hindus.
The upper Caste Hindus are Now estranged with BSP and in Addition, The OBCs Normally Dont vote for mayawati.
BJP on The Other hand has regained Lost ground to a substantial Level.
Alliance with RLD and Varun’s Issue to have Helped BJP
May 5th, 2009 at 6:29 PM
200-220 seats won’t do for NDA. UPA, third front and left would rather come together to defeat BJP+ than fight amongst themselves.
Rahul’s call for possible alliance with communists today is a clear sign that Congress sees BJP leading these elections till now.
May 5th, 2009 at 5:55 PM
Maybe 60+ for BSP is a bit of an over statement, but I won’t be surprised if it makes it to 45-50. It might have not delivered fully in my UP, but here the people (the rural, backward classes and urban low income masses) still perceive it as a better alternative to SP and the other perception is that it’s better to vote for a party which is more likely to gain majority or win than to vote for hardly-likely-to-win Congress and BJP. Then, one must also take into account the in-roads that BSP has build last couple of years into Maharashtra and maybe Haryana or Punjab. She can count on all the Dalits in these states and be hopeful of other backward, economically weak castes. Caste politics is the essence of her party which can work wonders in a country like India.
May 5th, 2009 at 10:52 AM
According to some reports from BJP party..
BJP is getting arnd 150 seats..BJP will be the single largest party…NDA may get arnd 190-200 seats
Congress might get arnd 30 seats…
So no govt can be formed without BJP or COng….
May 5th, 2009 at 9:36 AM
Dear Gaurav, in UP, BSP is losing ground fast.
and BSP Cant win any seat anywhere else.
so BSP Getting 64 seats is Absurd.
BJP Will Cross 200+ seats
May 4th, 2009 at 10:31 PM
@gaurav
how 60+ for BSP buddy? They have only UP in their catchment area, there also position is eroding fast.