by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 27, 2009India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
You can feel it in air, sense it in atmosphere and hear it on streets, ELECTIONS ARE COMING. The great Indian people are once more excited about the prospects of freedom they enjoy (or at least they think, they enjoy 
) to choose their representative for the highest body of country. As a political blog Promise of Reason will bring to you pre-poll predictions in next whole month.
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
It is in our blood to speculate and argue with or without the facts on matters of importance, irrespective of our region, religion, caste, class or whatever that may divide us. The most bonding nature of India is its argumentativeness and love for speculations. So, here I am once again to predict the possible outcome of general election 2009. I wrote a prediction for election last summers, when Manmohan Singh government was facing no-confidence motion after left pulled their support. At that time it was a mere fun process for me, but the response of readers of this blog has prompted me to do this pre-poll prediction very seriously. So, be it, now when elections are just around the corner, I shall post prediction for one state at a time with as detail as possible analysis.
Disclaimers:
- I want to mention for legal reasons that this is my predictions, not pre-poll survey, so no violation of code of conduct for media.
- I am a neutral blogger. Though the readers of this blog are tilted towards NDA a bit, as the case with whole upper-middle class Indians, who follow online news.
- I invite all Indians and interested people to comment on these posts and share them with their friends, but thoughts expressed by any reader of blog are his/her own and Promise of Reason does not have responsibility for it what-so-ever.
The schedule of election is with us, as in map. Parties are trying to form alliances in this coalition era. We all know that no party can get majority on its own. The importance of regional parties is at its all time high status. (This is deepening of democracy, by the way, and I am damn happy that Indian democracy is finding its root) So, a rigorous phase of coalition formation is going on.
NDA, UPA, and a loose third front are competitors, with each of them trying to woo as many parties in its fold as possible. Though final picture is emerging slowly, we cannot be sure of anything till results come out. There might be last minute tie-ups, break-downs, unofficial partnerships, dissidents, under currents and acts of treason in next month or two. So, wait and watch, to have fun – speculate, share your opinion, bring your friends over here and discuss!
I will take up all states one by one each day. (some bigger states might be dealt in 2-3 parts). So, better subscribe to Promise of Reason by email or feed to stay updated and for the time being enjoy some related posts below. cheers!
May 12th, 2009 at 6:53 PM
We can not conclude anything based on media report, because it seems that all media (NDTV and CNN-IBN) are working for congress to confuse or to collapse INDIA. I hope BJP will come again to power.
Why BJP shoud come to power?
1. BJP is the one political party will save India image worldwide.
2. BJP is the party, only can take decision for India’s good will.
3. BJP is the only party can bring up common civil law and make every one to think as Indian rather than relegion wise.
4. BJP is the only party having good forecast, good vision about india.
5. BJP is the only party can able to take tuff decision for development of the country.
6. BJP is the only party having very good leaders who are not from any famous family… no family parivar…
7. BJP already having good records in many states which thery are rulling…
8. BJP is the only party talking of development and only BJP can execute it.
9. Last but not the least… it is fortunate that India is going to get power full leader Mr. L.K Advani Ji….
One think is that when Leader is good not corrupted definitly he will not allow the subordinate to do so or obviously Subordinate will get fear.
BJP has to improve the skill of self marketting so that people will come to know about the work they are doing and did, like what Modi Ji doing in Gujrat.
As every one said, Tamil people are more emotional and most of them know only DMK and AIADMK… so my assumption is AIADMK wil get more seats 30+ and DMK will get 3 to 5, I hope BJP will get 2 and DMDK will get 1
May 12th, 2009 at 4:23 PM
DMK and VCK can Win, I Wont mind much, but congress should be Wiped Off.
May 12th, 2009 at 1:36 PM
Good to see some responses from all over. Dont know who will form the government,but definitely BJP will be the single largest party in the upcoming elections. Since I am from chennai, I would like to say DMK and their alliance will get 15 seats, AIADMK will get 23-24 seats, BJP will get 1-2 seats(Kanyakumari and Ramanathapuram constituency). But there is no strong wave against DMK but they have failed to save the Tamil peoples. This will going to be the reason for the failure of UPA in Tamilnadu..
May 12th, 2009 at 1:14 PM
friends,
One thing I am sure, If AIADMK sweeps is TN, definitely there will be lot of head ache who forms a govenment in centre..This is the history she has…think of vajpayee…within 13 days she withdrawn her support..She never be with one party..She always jump into other paries when she get lot of benifits ( Not for tha state..its for her). See when President elction, she was with third front..but suddenly she supported BJP..So if anyone trust Jayalalitha…I pity for him..
May 12th, 2009 at 12:35 PM
haridasan. will Third front, fourth front or mainoraul vinci combine form govt then?
first let them make clear who are with whom.
and BJP FYI is nearing 200 Mark singlly.
And S is likely to get 15
so wait for 4 more days
May 12th, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Where from NDA will get its numbers? Add up all: JDU 20+SS 10+TDP 15+TRS 5+Akali 5+INLD 2+ AIADMK & Others 30+ BJD 10+ BSP 30+RLD 3+BJP 140 = 270. Some believe in political rhetoric of politicians and are carried away. A miracle only can bring NDA to power. Or else the UPA and Left should face a Tsunami. Both the events are unlikely, it looks. Wait for the 16th May. Events will unfold.
May 12th, 2009 at 12:15 AM
I agree with Raj, Congress winning in Harayana and Delhi is a media story doing rounds.
There was no survey or opinion poll, just that media gave its opinion.
Harayana, the law and order situation is so bad that Police is refusing to register cases against goons, recent suicide of rape victim.
Delhi, with highly educated people who can differentiate between state and National Election. I think Congress will do poorly in these states..
Harayana – NDA 8-9 , UPA -1-2
New Delhi BJP 4-5 , Congress 2-3
Latest per NDTV India (Congress Channel)
UPA 218
NDA 235
If AIADMK sweeps TN with ~ 35+ seats, NDA doesn’t need any other support. They already have TRS support ,so Third Front has disintegrated even before last phase of election.
May 11th, 2009 at 11:55 PM
I have been able to keep up with the news from Tamil Nadu. If people in Tamil nadu follow logic to weed out the fabrications from facts, AIADMK alliance will get 38 seats. Otherwise AIADMK alliance will get about 33. The main issue is Sri Lanka–the one many politicians in India refuse to acknowloedge, discuss or resolve. India has already made its biggest mistake of being against Tamils and paving the way for another Kashmir in the South and loosing Sri lanka to China. What a stupid foreign policy implemented by stupid politicians in Congress-DMK. I feel sorry for Indian people who would be affected by its politicians dumb moves for many many years.
May 11th, 2009 at 10:43 PM
I just spoke to my Brother and He said There is NO Sympathy wave to karunanidhi.
his alliance with congress and his silence and mock fast has only agitated the people.
probably you are quoting sun TV.
remember, in 2001, with huge sun network too, he lost elections badly even when there was NO Anger against the government.
Even Arcot Veeraswamy,The Minister for Electricity and Power in Karunanidhi’s Cabinet has accepted that DMK would Lose this Election Badly.
9-11 for DMK is actually way too High than The Media is giving them.
The media feels ADMK Led front will sweep.
whereas I am giving more or less the same seats to ADMK and DMK
PS: Not in my analysis but in my comments
May 11th, 2009 at 8:51 PM
9-11 is way too less for DMK. Pro-LTTE protest and sympathy wave for an ill Karunanidhi is definitely gonna help DMK. Also, AIADMK doesn’t have any issue to talk about this time.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:55 PM
NO Way Gaurav.
Karunanidhi’s Gesture Might Help DMK o probably would Help DMK. In Addition, Colour TV and Re 1 / KG Rice Schemes too would get the BPL Votes.
But, remember, Tamils see congress as The Biggest Enemy and in Particular The Nehru Family.
therefore, while DMK would win anywhere between 9-11 Parliamentary Seats, congress would draw A Blank in TN
May 11th, 2009 at 2:39 PM
I’ve predicted 21 seats for DMK this time – Karunanidhi’s pro-LTTE stunt will surely help. Then, Sonia’s joint rally with him, where she carefully chose English over Hindi can also be a good sign for Tamilian voters/ UPA.
If you read carefully, above statement’s contradictory, but you know how unpredictable and contradictory the opinion leaders and voters are in TN.
May 10th, 2009 at 4:59 PM
dear sir my astrological analysis bjp will form the govt this time with new analysis SH NARENDRA MODI WILL BE THE NEXT PM see how planets play their game
May 10th, 2009 at 11:11 AM
I am waiting for the day when the national parties will be frred from these Kazhagam kind of regional parties…
May 10th, 2009 at 6:35 AM
Tamil kazhagams will lose their Importance in Government formation soon.
India will be Free from Kazhagams once and for Ever.
May 10th, 2009 at 6:34 AM
sugana , wai for 6 more days and you anti-national DMK Congress would get the shock of your life.
congress is losing all seats in TamilNadu and would be saving grace if they even get Deposit.
May 9th, 2009 at 9:25 PM
in tamilnadu bjp never get deposit.pl dont predict tamilnadus result on your own. tqmilnadu never support for hung parliamnet. it is sure that upa will get full seats in tamil nadu.pl think it on 16 th tamil people never fails in forming the govt in centre
May 9th, 2009 at 10:07 AM
AKS, You Cant Base Delhi Parliamentary Election Results based on Last Years Assembly Results.
That is Inappropriate.
BJP has fielded Good Candidates in Delhi this time.
May 9th, 2009 at 10:05 AM
how come congress win 4 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana?
because the media says so?
congress news network also said congress would sweep in AP
but, we All know that congress is about to get a single digit number in parlianmentary elections in AP
May 9th, 2009 at 10:04 AM
I think in Delhi BJP might get 2 seats. There is no good leader for BJP in Delhi.