by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 27, 2009India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
You can feel it in air, sense it in atmosphere and hear it on streets, ELECTIONS ARE COMING. The great Indian people are once more excited about the prospects of freedom they enjoy (or at least they think, they enjoy 
) to choose their representative for the highest body of country. As a political blog Promise of Reason will bring to you pre-poll predictions in next whole month.
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
It is in our blood to speculate and argue with or without the facts on matters of importance, irrespective of our region, religion, caste, class or whatever that may divide us. The most bonding nature of India is its argumentativeness and love for speculations. So, here I am once again to predict the possible outcome of general election 2009. I wrote a prediction for election last summers, when Manmohan Singh government was facing no-confidence motion after left pulled their support. At that time it was a mere fun process for me, but the response of readers of this blog has prompted me to do this pre-poll prediction very seriously. So, be it, now when elections are just around the corner, I shall post prediction for one state at a time with as detail as possible analysis.
Disclaimers:
- I want to mention for legal reasons that this is my predictions, not pre-poll survey, so no violation of code of conduct for media.
- I am a neutral blogger. Though the readers of this blog are tilted towards NDA a bit, as the case with whole upper-middle class Indians, who follow online news.
- I invite all Indians and interested people to comment on these posts and share them with their friends, but thoughts expressed by any reader of blog are his/her own and Promise of Reason does not have responsibility for it what-so-ever.
The schedule of election is with us, as in map. Parties are trying to form alliances in this coalition era. We all know that no party can get majority on its own. The importance of regional parties is at its all time high status. (This is deepening of democracy, by the way, and I am damn happy that Indian democracy is finding its root) So, a rigorous phase of coalition formation is going on.
NDA, UPA, and a loose third front are competitors, with each of them trying to woo as many parties in its fold as possible. Though final picture is emerging slowly, we cannot be sure of anything till results come out. There might be last minute tie-ups, break-downs, unofficial partnerships, dissidents, under currents and acts of treason in next month or two. So, wait and watch, to have fun – speculate, share your opinion, bring your friends over here and discuss!
I will take up all states one by one each day. (some bigger states might be dealt in 2-3 parts). So, better subscribe to Promise of Reason by email or feed to stay updated and for the time being enjoy some related posts below. cheers!
May 21st, 2009 at 10:20 AM
Mohanraj K, BJP was also the only party that declared its support for the malegaon terrorists, who are being investigated by the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS), the probe report revealed a plan to kill RSS general secretary Mohan Bhagwat and senior leader Indraeesh, but still they supporeted purohit and the likes.
BJP will not save India, it will break it up into tiny pieces to make their masters the ISI and Pak Army happy as long as it continues to follow these policies of appeasing hindutvadi terrorists. Knowingly or unknowingly…
May 16th, 2009 at 3:05 PM
Subbu Speaks 16.5.09
Mr.Rohit 3.00 P.M.
It is rather immatured of you to dismiss BJP as a failed party. The BJP lost the present election only because of rift among its think tank. Mr.Arun Jaitley and Rajnath singh couldn’t see eye to eye with each other and Advani could clear the misgivings among them on the first instance. By the time a patch up was arrived, it was raher too late as the rank and file of the party were a discouraged lot.
So, inspite of starting off very late, BJP has put up a brave front, with the numerical number its MPs large enough to play a creative opposition. The loss of BJP should be attributed to lack of imagination and leadership on the part of Advani. He has been longing to become the PM throughout his life, but when the opportunity presented itself the man messed it up. It is rather clear Advani is a organization man he doesn’t possess leadership.
Therefore in the interest of the party and its supporters at least now Advani should hand over the sceptre to a younger face in the party. I certainly forecast a bright future for BJP under young and dynamic leadership like that of MODI.
May 16th, 2009 at 11:41 AM
I cannot believe what bunch of stupid comments here. You all should leave you’re computer, get out and see that BJP is a failed party!
May 15th, 2009 at 11:29 PM
what A Sham!!!
mayawati is rated as The Best choice at 17% to be PM.
uh?
rajdeep has to Apologize for The same within next 12 hours
May 15th, 2009 at 11:26 PM
Exactly Hari.
The Elections in TN seem to be Rigged.
until 4 The Voting percentage was just around 52%, increased 62% in last one hour.
however, Even with that, DMK is Not likely to sweep.
how could The CNN-IBN know the same?
I too was shocked reading the news item.
they are trying their best to help congress and prevent BJP from forming the government
That seems to be their Only Intention.
May 15th, 2009 at 9:53 PM
The most surprising “breaking news” from Rajdeep is that the DMK front will sweep TN. Such a result is possible only if the DMK were to be able to rig in a big way. The very high polling percentage does raise eyebrows as it would seem very unlikely given that it is a national election and also held during one of the hottest days and in the hottest periods. Usually higher voter turn out is for voting out the incumbent and not otherwise. We have to wait another 12 hours to get to have a clearer picture.
May 15th, 2009 at 8:32 PM
Mr. Subbu, I feel The same .
DMK would probably Win around 9-11 MP seats but congress might draw A Blank.
May 15th, 2009 at 4:59 PM
Subbu speaks 15.5.09
5.00 P.M
There is no wave in Tamil except the heat wave ( read as hate wave) sweeping country. People have no love lost against the premier regional parties DMK and AIADMK along with the National Party Congress for turning a blind eye towards the genocide of tamils in Sri lanka. DMK has only expressed lip-sympathy for Sri Lankan tamils for the fear for embarassing its big brother in centre-Congress. This is indeed a far-cry from ideology of the party which was formed to create dravida nadu. AIADMK on the other hand has never made any bones of its contept for Sri lankan tamil strife and more so Prabakaran. Now they have joined the tamil nationalist bandwagon with the war cry to achieve tamil ellam if voted to power (sic. look at the extent this politicians can go to ).
Congress is the outright villian of the piece. As the centre Government led by UPA has supplied lethel weapons to lankan army which is annihalating the tamil race. Beside RAW has created split between Prabakaran and karuana
with the latter playing a perfect brutus.
If at all DMK looses it would be only due to its decision to allign with Congress. But for that DMK has no real anti-incubancy vote against it. DMK’s loss may prove to be AIADMK’S Gain.
May 15th, 2009 at 3:57 PM
Subbu says,
Hai everybody,
In Tamil Nadu there is no wave favouring anybody. The only wave is the heat wave (read it as hate wave) against the two premier parties DMK, AIADMK and National party Congress for being a mute spectator to the genocide of Tamils in Sri Lanka. Though Mr.Karunanidhi has made some noises against the carnage of tamil, but people feel that he is not sincere, and wants to be more loyal to his masters in delhi rather than tamil race.
Jayalalitha has never made any bones of her contempt for tamil strife in srilanka especially Prabakaran. She tried to join the tamil nationalist bandwagon at the fag end of the campaign by promising Tamil Eelam ( sic. Look at the extent this politicians can go to win elections)nobody takes her seriously.
Congress is the real villian of the piece. People in tamil nadu, blame congress for supplying sophisticated arms to Sri Lankan forces which has wiped off the entire tamil race further more the RAW has created split between Prabakaran and Karuna. The latter played a perfect Brutus to joined hands with Sinhala forces and bring about the downfall of LTTE.
To be frank, DMK has hardly done anything wrong. If at all they loose it would be owing to their alliance with Congress. In this chaos, AIADMK may reap the benefit and emerge victorious.
DMK’s soft pedalling of sri lanka issue would be their achilles heel.
May 15th, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Dear all
the exit poll from indian media is rubbish and foolish thing…they are act as pro congress and pseudo secularists..
this is only helping betters and horse traders..in my prediction Nda will become the largest coilataion and form a govt in Delhi..other thing i appeal to all supporters of bjp and nda pls start a new national channel for publicicing our ideas and visions..
vande matharam…jai bharath…
gopan
alapuzha
May 15th, 2009 at 7:05 AM
Dont vote for Congress, theya re the worst. All soniya does is Give eapons to Sri lanka and kill innocent Tamils.
May 14th, 2009 at 9:39 PM
NDTV is funny…
Overnight Bookies have shifted from UPA to NDA as front runner for forming govt…
Bunch of jokers…
May 14th, 2009 at 8:49 PM
NDA by itself is Win ning around 230 Seats.
The Exit Polls was A Charade.
In AP, UP BJP is making Gains.
In TN and Kerala too BJP is going to Win Seats.
wait for 36 more hours, results would be pouring in
May 14th, 2009 at 8:37 PM
Also, another possibility is splitting BSP to take 9-10 MPs join NDA to form govt.
Congress has itself hurt UPA by fighting elections separtely. Lalu will be humilated in Bihar this time.
Is there any chance of Mamta joining NDA ?
May 14th, 2009 at 8:31 PM
Sangma shits to NDA. He has influence to bring 5-7 seats to NDA.
At this time,
LKA — 60%
MMS — 10%
Other Congress Candidate — 20%
3rd Front — 10%
Chance to be PM.
In all probability, Congress-PRP will form govt in AP state and TDP will do all it can to stay in power at least in center.
If BJD falls short of majority, It will come to NDA.
If NDA is 220, AIADMK,TDP-TRS will move towards NDA.
If NDA is 210, they’ll need AIADMK, TDP-TRS & Sangama
If NDA is 200, they’ll need AIADMK, TDP-TRS , Sangama , BJD and couple of Independents.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Sangma-shifts-to-NDA-camp/articleshow/4527175.cms
May 14th, 2009 at 6:57 AM
In tamilnadu the wave may be in favour of AIADMK but DMK and allies facing the election with big guns like
Chidambaram(Finance minister/Home minister)
Rasa(IT & communication)
Dayanidhimaran(EX-IT & communication)
Manishankar Iyer(Ex-Petroleum )
Alagiri-he told with a margin of 3,00,000 votes he will win
G.K.Vasan (Statistical minister)
T.R.Balu(Shipping Road Transport and Highways)
V.Narayanasamy -central minister
So many millionaires and smugglers were contesting they won’t mind of spending money so it’s not as much difficult as we’re expecting for DMK to win
May 14th, 2009 at 6:22 AM
Eventhough DMK men tried to show that DMK doing very well for the media .It’s possible with their channels like Sun TV,Kalaignar TV while coming to NDTV analysis Mr.Dayanidhimaran was cornered with some questions as follows
Reporter:Mr.Maran How many seats U R expecting
Mr.Maran:35 plus
Reporter:Sir we’re talking seriously leave it tell any wave infavour of your party
Mr.Maran:We Issued Free TV sets Rs 1 per kg of rice people are very much happy with these….
Reporter:We heard your govt failed to give power/electricity to use those TV sets
Mr.Maran:???????????????????
Reporter:All right sir we will wait untill 16 th noon
May 14th, 2009 at 6:11 AM
Initially before the polls the situation was actually in favour of AIADMK and allies only.But Tamil People were very much Honest and Noble after receiving the Bribe offered by DMK and Allies people just think that How hard DMK works for us to pay Rs.100 ,and cast their vote in favour of DMK so it’s really a Tug-of-war ;that is Tamilnadu is unpredictable we must wait untill 16 noon
May 13th, 2009 at 1:51 PM
Rajeve killed 15000 tamils in lanka and soniya killed more than that. Killing rajeve is to see on the lankan tamils side is right or wrong? How many mothers fathers brothers sisters daughters and sons lost their loved ones in front of their eyes when the indian army killed them. Its is an eye wash that they dumped food in plans. Even now they do the same. Firsherman in TN also been assalted and killed… no care for tamils by the north and will never care.
May 13th, 2009 at 10:38 AM
I’m sure no single party would get an absolute majority. BJP will win more number of seats than congress. Hung parliament is a real possibility!
But as always,our politicians would jump sides for the sake of money and post.