by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 31, 2009Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
Karnataka is a state, which is very crucial for BJP. It is a new found grund for party and broken alliance of congress and JDS is helping the prospects of BJP. Though congress is still a big force in state, but in triangular fight vote difference of 2-3% is more than sufficient to make it a clean sweep. Here is a detailed analysis by Shathesh. It shows that many seats are still uncertain, and nobody can predict the mind of voters exactly but Karnataka has almost decided its mind to go with Mr. Advani
BJP 18-23
Congress 2 – 7
JDS 2 – 4
see the detailed seatwise analysis here http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pRxI8WEKfGhwFXjiopNmgaA
Edit (08-04-09) : by shanthesh: I have updated the excel sheet. BJP sure seats reduced from 18 to 16 where as JDS is increasing its minimum tally to 4 seats…
Looks like to get 20 seats in Karnataka BJP has to work really harder, ( BJP Govt hasnt worked harder to improve the state condition,atleast let them work hard now, (Ofcourse few exceptional ministers are there who are doing great job))
May 4th, 2009 at 10:37 AM
With some inputs from others, Here is what I feel abt karnataka now
1)Bidar-> 50-50 chance for BJP and COng
2)Gulbarga->Adv COng
3)Raichur->Adv Cong
4)Koppal->Slight adv BJP
5)Bellary->BJP sure seat
6)Shimoga->BJP sure seat
7)CHitradurga->Adv BJP
8)Davanagere->BJP sure seat
9)Tumkur->Adv JDS
10)Kolar->Adv BJP
11)chIKBALAPUR->50-50 FOR bjp AND coNG
12)Bangalore north->BJP sure seat
13)Bangalore central->50-50 for BJP and JDS
14)Bangalore south->Slight adv BJP
15)Mysore->Adv BJP
16)Chamarajanagar->50-50 for BJP and COngress
17)Mandya->Adv JDS
18)hASSAN->jds Sure seat
19)Bangalore rural->JDS sure seat
20)Uttara kannada->bjp SURE seat
21)Udupi-chikmagalur->BJP sure seat ((Many papers are telling that BJP might get setback inudupi,but they are not considering chikmagalur segment which gives atleast 70k lead to BJP,COngess at max can get lead of abt 30k from udupi segment)
22)Dakshina kannada->Adv BJP(Itw as thought to be 50-50 seat but high voter turnout in BJP bastons Puttur and Sullia,BJP shld be happy now)
23)Dharwad->BJP sure seat (Prahlad joshi may become Cabinet minister if NDA aocmes to power)
24)Haveri->Adv BJP
25)Belgaum->Adv BJP
26)Chikkodi->Adv BJP
27)Bagalakot->BJP sure seat
28)Bijapur->BJP sure seat
BJP sure seats->9
Adv BJP->9
jds SURE SEATS->2
aDV jds->2
aDV coNGRESS->2
50-50 BETWEEN BJP and JDS->1
50-50 between BJP and cong->3
BJP:18-22
cONG:2-5
jds:4-5
April 29th, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
April 29th, 2009 at 2:09 PM
KannadaPrabha is anti-BJP papaer….
April 29th, 2009 at 2:08 PM
vijayakarnataka is a BJP paper,dont beleive the reports of this paper.every one knows this,if reporter reports the real picture, if the report is not in favour of BJP THEY ARE NOT accept the report &instruct their staff to report in favour of BJP.if you have any friends in VK ask them they will tell you the same.
April 29th, 2009 at 9:29 AM
W ehave one more survey from Kannada prabha..
Its not actually survey, It can be considered as who wins from Catse equation
ACcroding to Kannadaprabha PAPER COngress will win maximum seats followed by BJP
Its purely based on caste analysis…
And the same KANNADAprabha paper had tld that BJP would get maximum seats in assembly..
BUt BJP fans need not worry..Bcoz The C-FOre Suvarna survey team which was with Kannadaprbha then,now has joined woith Vijaya karnataka
So Vijaya Karnataka nanlysis are more reasonable npw
April 29th, 2009 at 9:19 AM
Vijaya karnataka Predictions for second phase
today’s poll meter
1)Dharwad: BJP comfortably ahead
2)Haveri:BJP slightly ahead of COngress
3)Bagalakot:BJP slightly ahead
4)Udupi-CHikmagalur: BJP comfatble lead
5)Mangalore(Dakshina kannada) : 50-50 Chances for both BJP and COngress
Yesterday’s poll meter
6)Hassan:JDS ahead
7)Mandya:JDS ahead
8)Mysore:BJP marginally ahead
9)CHamarajanagar: BJP marginally ahead
10)Davanagere:BJP comfortably ahead
11)Shimoga:50-50 for both BJP and COngress
Total prediction of Vijaya karnataka for second phase
BJP:7-9
Cong:0-2
JDS:2
April 28th, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Bangalore north,bellary and uttara kannada are sure shot seats for BJP.
Bangalore rural,bangalore central,and tumkur are sure shot seats for JDS way.
Raichur,chikkaballapura and gulbarga are sure shot seat for congress.
So sure seats for parties in first round are
BJP – 3
congress – 3
JDS – 3
probable leading once are
Congress slightly ahead in kolar(even malur BJP mla has worked for KHM and varthur prakash)
JDS seems to be slightly ahead in chitradurga.ratnakara babu might win with his father support
dharamsingh seems to be slightly ahead in bidar.
bijapur with BJP ahead
so slightly ahead seats
BJP – 1
Congress – 2
JDS – 1
cannot predict
Koppal – BJP has fielded a new face.all three are in tough fight
chikkodi – tough fight
belgaum – tough triangular though more with congress and BJP
bangalore south 0 tough fight with ananth kumar and krishna byre gowda
So chances are parties in first phase are
BJP – 3-11
Congress – 3-9
JDS – 3-6
I think i have given a realistic prediction.
April 28th, 2009 at 10:39 AM
ANd also here is some news from the first phase
1)BangaloreNorth->BJP sure seat
2)Bangalore Central->TOugh fight between BJP and JDS ..50-50 FOR both
3)Bangalore south->BJP has slight edge( Earlier it was thought to be cakewalk for AananthKumar, But terrorist supporter (Yes congress candidate was seen in the protest ralli against ” Anti terrorsim Jaatha”,which mean he supports terrorism activities) giving tough fight))
4)Bangalore Rural->Cake walk for Kumara Swamy (JDS)
5)Chikkaballapur->Tough fight between BJP and congress..If Moily gets defeated it will be his hatrick…
6)Kolar–> BJP seems to be ahead, Everyone doubts about independent candidate who supported BJP has played double game…
7)Tumkur->BJP seems to be loosing..Devegowda’s caste trick seems to have worked…JDS having upper hand
8)Uttara kannada->Margaret Alwa of COngress is loosing heavily, Interested to see whether its 1lakh margin or two lakh margin
9)Bijapur-> BJP is comfortable
10)Belgaum-> COngress bastons(like gokak) reported low voter turnout..BJP comfortable
11)Bidar-> BJP has slight advantage,But very tough contest
12)CHikkodi-> BJP’s katti seems to be comfortable
13)Gulbarga-> Two honest persons are facong tough battle…50-50 chances for BJP and COngress
14)Koppal-> THree way contest..BJP seems to be ahead due to split in anti nationalists vote
15)Bellay-> Reddy seems to have delivered win to BJP
16)Raichur-> seems to be tough battle with COngress having an edge
April 28th, 2009 at 8:55 AM
VIjayakarnataka POLL METER for second phase
1)JDS Comfotably ahead in Mandya
2)BJP Comfortably ahead in Davanagaere
3)JDS Marginally ahead in Hassan(DeveGowda)
4)BJP Marginally ahead in Mysore,CHamarajanagar (“Anna” thinks that JDS will win this seat,but according to Vijaya karnataka JDS is distant third)
5)50-50 chances for BJP and congress in Shimoga
According to it, among the six seats
BJP-3
JDS-2
Tossup-1
But according to me
Shimoga is sure seat for BJP….
Chamarajananagar might go COngress way….
Ohter things are OK..
so in my analysis
BJP-3
Cong-1
JDS-2
The remaining 5 seats shld be for BJP
April 28th, 2009 at 7:15 AM
BSY has A Reputation of Being Pro Farmer.
April 27th, 2009 at 4:14 PM
shanthesh
please mind JD(s) took more than 40000 votes in last assembly
election from 2 segments of madikeri even the party is not in the good position.
jeevijaya contested from congress secured 54000 votes,this time he will secure 80000 votes.
dont compare the situation on the past grounds,this time the situation is entirely different.
April 27th, 2009 at 3:58 PM
bjp people calculate the winnability on lingayath caste equation only,why can”t jd(s) people?for what acheivement
people of karnataka will vote for bjp?people of karnataka have never seen this type of worst,corrupt,unlawfull,inefficient government in the past.
people are eagerly waiting to remove this dirty govt.they have looted the treasury by all means in just 10 months,what other parties have made it in last 50 years they have made it in 10 months.this is the acheivement/development of the bjp.
20+seats to bjp is just a joke and dreaming and some peoples of bjp are saying this to influence the voters.
bjp is changing to blp(brahmin,lingayath party)after step down of yediyurrappa it is only bp(brahmin party)
after election no electricity.no water,no development speech also.
yediyurappa is the worst,inefficient………
words are not enough to tell for its improper administration.
he is a servant of shobha &reddy brothers.
in nda govt terrorism was at the highest level.please take 3 examples of parliament attack,kandhar incident,terrorist
crassing indian border.these 3 are very shameless things to bjp peoples.they dont have moral right to talk about terrorism.
if bjp people dont want the muslim votes,please do the following things first from karnataka.
1.remove all minority morchas
2.remove muslim minister from the cabinet
3.tell yediyurappa to announce the same
in mysore muslim corporator was bought by bjp peoples for 30 lakh ruppees,if you dont need their support why you bought?dont show substandard,people will teach lesson.it is a clear indication of divide and rule policy b/w religion &caste.
this is the first and last bjp govt in karnataka.dont boost up the things in favour of bjp if you have any offerings from them.
bjp can purchase rejected/strenghtless leaders but not voters.
dont dream bjp is utmost in karnataka,after election your dream will spoil and people will beat those who talk in favour of bjp.
if you have any concern about common man ,farmers,helpless
please change your mind to support jd(s) for the best governance,development &welfare of the people.
you go and ask anywhere in india about karnataka,they will tell good opinion about HDD &HDK.is there any leader in bjp from karnataka have that much of recognisation all over the nation?
i think some RSS(rastriya sulugarara sangha) peoples have spoiled your mind.i wish for the speedy recovery.
i think this is enough for you to stop commenting in favour of bjp.
April 27th, 2009 at 3:30 PM
Anna
U r forgetting few of the imporatnt points..
Coorg has highest number of ex Army men who are voting for BJP…
And ur thinking that Jeevijaya being local candidate wont help JDS Much as COorg has never supported JDS,If he had contested from COngress,he had a chance but now definitely not…
Ur thinking that coffee growers are in problem is a big joke, Being a coffee grower, I know the situation.. Its from the past two years COffe planters are getting reasonable rates for coffee and hence no such problem Exists …
Aand if the caste was the only equation, Then Prahlad Joshi(Brahmin) wouldnt have won from Lingayat dominated DHarwad.. Jaffer sharief wouldnt have won from Vokkaliga dominated Bangalore north…
As I mentioned..JDS is number one castists party..DO u know what S Stands for in JDS..It stands for secularism
But according to JDS,Caste politics is secular
April 27th, 2009 at 2:16 PM
Mr. anna, anyway, You have The Right to Vote for Whom You Wish.
But, JD(S) is A Corrupt Family’s Corporate house
April 27th, 2009 at 1:52 PM
I dont deny that JDS has chance of winning Mysore seat.
But all JDS people calculate the winnability on Caste equations only..
THey do not know that Caste equation dont work in coastal and malnad segments(cOORG 2 ASSEMBLY SEGMENTS IN mALnad)
Coorg two segments,and Krishnaraja,chamaraja will give lead for BJP
Narasimharaja,CHamundeshwari for COngress
Hunsur,piriyapatna for JDS….
chANCE OF WINNING for BJP is bot more than that of JDS..Second might be JDS or congress…
But I dont say that its BJP sure seat but definitely BJP ahead in the race
April 27th, 2009 at 1:43 PM
Sorry Mr. Anna, JD(S) is force of family on the people of Karnataka
April 27th, 2009 at 1:42 PM
Vote for JD(S) so that Karnataka becomes the Worst state and deve gowda and co can loo the treasury of The state.
kumaraswamy was The Worst CM.
People rejected JD(S) and pushed it to third spot.
even if deve gowda retains hassan, it would be an achievement for JD(S)
April 27th, 2009 at 12:11 PM
raj iam not a fan or member of devegowda family,what i am
predicting is true.if i am telling truth why u irritating like this?HAVE YOU GOT ANYTHING FROM BJP OR CONGRESS PEOPLES?
PLEASE VOTE FOR JD(S) AND TELL YOUR FRIENDS TO VOTE.
JD(S) IS A VOICE OF RURAL INDIA.
April 27th, 2009 at 11:07 AM
why, why cant jd(s) win all 28 Parliamentary seats anna?
you must be a die hard jd(s) fan or may be you are a member of deve gowda family
April 27th, 2009 at 10:57 AM
mysore loksabha seat is the sure seat for jd(s)this time.
vokkaligas _4 lakhs,daliths_3lakhs,muslims_2 lakhs,lingayath,brahamin,kuruba,nayak(ST) _1 lakh each out of 16.5 lakhs total votes.
vokkaligas ,muslims,nayaks and madikeri peoples are strongly supporting jd(s).madikeri peoples are very much happy to choose local candidate jeevijaya JD(s)he is responding for the problems of the coffee growers.kumarswamy wave is there in all the 6 segments of mysore district.
in mysore segment bjp may get lead only in KR constiuency,chamaraja,narasimharaja,hunsur,periyapatna,chamundeshwari jd(S) is taking lead in large margin,congress in second place.
last time kuruba votes was 2 lakhs so it was favoured bjp candidate vijayashankar belongs to same community.after delimitation kuruba vote was come down to 1 lakh ,this votes defnitely goes to congress candidate vishwanath who belongs to same caste and community leader siddaramaiah is favouring him.
daliths are supporting jd(s)in mass because they are anti against siddaramaaiah in kharges opposition leader factor
bjp leaders &workers are not happy in their organisation due to their internal problem.peoples of mysore &madikeri
are very much angry on bjp government for not giving mininestrial berth for both the districts &imposing district incharge ministers from outside.there is no surprise if bjp goes to third place also.