- Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
- Karnataka seatwise prepoll prediction by Shanthesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Rajasthan seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- 9 northern states prepoll prediction by raja
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- West Bengal seatwise prepoll prediction by Sameer
Karnataka is a state, which is very crucial for BJP. It is a new found grund for party and broken alliance of congress and JDS is helping the prospects of BJP. Though congress is still a big force in state, but in triangular fight vote difference of 2-3% is more than sufficient to make it a clean sweep. Here is a detailed analysis by Shathesh. It shows that many seats are still uncertain, and nobody can predict the mind of voters exactly but Karnataka has almost decided its mind to go with Mr. Advani
BJP 18-23
Congress 2 – 7
JDS 2 – 4
see the detailed seatwise analysis here http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pRxI8WEKfGhwFXjiopNmgaA
Edit (08-04-09) : by shanthesh: I have updated the excel sheet. BJP sure seats reduced from 18 to 16 where as JDS is increasing its minimum tally to 4 seats…
Looks like to get 20 seats in Karnataka BJP has to work really harder, ( BJP Govt hasnt worked harder to improve the state condition,atleast let them work hard now, (Ofcourse few exceptional ministers are there who are doing great job))
Take a look at these related posts:
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 1
- Uttar Pradesh (UP) seatwise prepoll prediction by Vikas Kumar : Part 2
- Assam seatwise prepoll prediction by Maidros
- Tamilnadu seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana seatwise prepoll prediction by Yellayi Rajesh
April 5, 2009 at 1:51 PM
Does fielding of whole Devegauda clan from various constituency is going to increase JDS tally?
April 5, 2009 at 2:01 PM
NO Way.
JD(S) can win in only one constituency
April 8, 2009 at 2:21 PM
DeveGowda and his son KumaraSwamy are definite winners ,APart from this they are most likely to win Mandya seat ..JDS is winning the tumkur seat by divide and rule policy
April 8, 2009 at 3:20 PM
I dont think so. At The Most they can Win only two, father and son
April 8, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Mandya is also sure bet for JDS….
April 8, 2009 at 6:18 PM
JD(S) will gain Only at the cost of congress and Not at the cost of BJP
April 11, 2009 at 5:48 PM
I am sure devegowda and kumaraswamy will loose the election
because of strong BJP factors. BJP is doing excellent development works
April 12, 2009 at 4:49 PM
One minister in Yeddi’s cabinet was of the opinion that BJP could win all 28 seats! lets see how things pan out
April 12, 2009 at 4:54 PM
Hi ,
BJP should work very hard in Karnatka. If BJP’s luck is good then BJP may get also 28 seats.
April 13, 2009 at 10:41 AM
A survey conducted by VIjayakarnataka(kannada daily leading news paper) SUvarna TV is showing thatBJP’s voteshare may increase to 54% where as congress is likely to get 37% and 9% for JDS.The exact details will be published tomorrow
April 13, 2009 at 5:47 PM
Suvarna TV predicted The 2008 Karnataka Poll Tesults more Accurately, but, 54% to BJP in Karnataka–Nope.
BJP— 41-43%
Congress—-35-37%
JD(S)—12-15%
Rest for BSP and Independnents
April 14, 2009 at 9:32 AM
The seats in Karnataka as per SUvarna TV as follows
BJP:15-18
CoNG:8-11
jds:3-5
April 14, 2009 at 10:54 AM
But, I am Sure, BJP Will Win 20+ Lok Sabha Seats from Karnataka
April 14, 2009 at 11:31 AM
Even I have that feeling;The survey shows the following results:
Mumbai Karnataka(6.25 seats);BJP Far ahead than congress,JDS not in the race..(0.25 seats beacuse two aseembly segment of this area goes to Coastal const)
Bangalore city (3 seats):BJP comfortably ahead of COngress(BJP:45% Cong:40%)JDS in distant third
SOuth Karnataka(8 seats): BJP in third position,Congress and JDS having upperhand
COastal Karnataka(2.25 seats):Very slight edge for COngress(BJP:42% Cong:43%)
Central Karnataka(3.5 seats): BJP seems to be unbeatable in all 3 seats here , Enjoys comfortable lead(4 assmebly segment of Chikmagalur goes to coastal const)
Hyderabad Karnataka(5 seats):COngress magrinally ahead, BJP in second position,JDS Position is also not bad
In my view BJP will win
Mumbai karnataka-6 seats
Hyderabad Karnataka-2 seats
Coastal Karnataka-3 seats(Even though survey shows congress lead by 1%, Udupi seat has 4 central karnataka assembly const ,and canara has 2 assembly segments from Mumbai karnataka which is putting BJP in comfortable position in these two seats,Mangalore is real battlefield,Hope BJP wins this)
Bangalore city–3 seats
Central Karnataka- 3 seats
SOuth Karnataka – 3 seats ( vote share of BJP in this region seems to be very low bcoz there are constituences like Hassan,Mandya,CHamarajanagar where BJP will not even get 15% vote share, but it has wiining chance in Mysore,Tumkur,Kolar,CHikballapur)
So On an average I put 20 seats for BJP..and ofcourse if we can grab 3 more seats of hydbd karnataka, Maximum of 23 can be reached
April 14, 2009 at 12:04 PM
In Dakshin Kannada Region, BJP has Presence Only in Few Segments. Vote share and Seats Do Not Reflect The same Pattern.
one may Have A Huge Vote share scattered around a region and gain low votes while some may have a limited vote share but concentrated in Constituencies
April 14, 2009 at 12:14 PM
@ Raj
One small mistake …Dakshina Kannada is different from south karnataka.Dakshina Kannada is Mangalore district where BJP has good presence.And as U said its right that in South Karnataka(Known as Old Mysore region)..BJP definitely has potential to win 4/8 seats there where as in reamining 4 it doesnt have much presence at all
April 16, 2009 at 6:57 AM
BJP should lose the 2009 Lok sabha elections. I will be very happy. May the Almighty help the UPA and its allies.
April 16, 2009 at 8:25 AM
STFU Well Wisher.
That WOULD NEVER Happen.
your congress has Already LOST Elections.
sonia maino and raul vinci have LOST ALL Charm.
Their speeches are as Pale as their appearance.
congress WILL LOSE Elections And This is NOT Mere Pre-POLL Prediction. It is A Reality.
And Well Wisher, BJP Will WIN MOre Than 200 Parliamentary Seats,
I am Sure, BJP Will get above 225 Seats in Parliament and you Terrorist posting with pseudonames such as well-wisher and xxx(yeah, we all know you do xxx with sonia maino)
April 16, 2009 at 8:26 AM
*Contd.
you Terrorist posting with pseudonames such as well-wisher and xxx(yeah, we all know you do xxx with sonia maino) will Suffer Suicide or else you would be Executed under Law for your Anti-Indian Ness.
April 16, 2009 at 9:05 AM
@ Well Wisher
Karnataka and Rajasthan are two states which support BJP at national level…
In 1999 BJP won just 42/224 seats in Assembly but won 10/28 MP seats…
In 2004 BJP won 79/224 assembly seats but won 18/28 MP seats
This time number may cross 20…
In rajasthan also COngress formed the govt in 1998,But NDA won 13/25 sseats…
In 1999 It increased to 16/25 seats
In 2004,When Raje became the CM, The number of seats went to 21/25 seats…
I feel BJP will win minmum of 12 seats in Rajasthan this time
April 16, 2009 at 3:50 PM
Former Supreme Court Judge and Lokayukta N Venkatachala joins BJP—-
———————————————-
Former Supreme Court Judge and Lokayukta N Venkatachala today joined BJP for what he called “to guide the party in the fight against corruption.”
Visit to — http://bjpkarnataka.org
April 16, 2009 at 4:53 PM
Thatz Great News Sukesh
April 16, 2009 at 4:56 PM
Shantesh’s mails betray basic understanding of elections.
Somehwere he says survey conducted by VIjayakarnataka(kannada daily leading news paper) SUvarna TV is showing thatBJP’s voteshare may increase to 54% where as congress is likely to get 37% and 9% for JDS.
Shantesh hasn’t even understood what the survey was saying. It did not say BJP vote share will be 54%. It merely said 54% of people think BJP will get more seats than any other party in Karnataka.
In the next day, the voting percentages were revealed. It said Cong would get 38% and BJP would get 39%. with a one percent difference, i wonder how BJP can get 23 seats! Ridiculous!
Last year, in the assembly polls Cong got 3 lakh votes more than BJP in whole of Karnataka. And that too, there was no cong candidate in Davangere. Cong lead in 14 parliamentary constituencies and BJP only in 10!.surely things cant change so drastically!
April 16, 2009 at 5:14 PM
@ SImple
SOme of the basic facts of Karnataka Assembly and LS election 2004
Mysore: COng won 3 seats JDS won 4 seat BJP won 1 seat..But BJP was elected in MP
I can give sevral examples like this…. Mangalore which had elected 6/8 congress member for assembly in 1999 elected BJP for MP election…
Id ont have other factfiles otherwise I could have clearly provided u the real facts….
April 16, 2009 at 5:15 PM
Even SM Krishna will not be dreaming of COng getting more than 10 seats in Karnataka..
April 16, 2009 at 5:15 PM
Yes I was wrong abt the vote share specified in Vijayakarnataka..
April 16, 2009 at 5:19 PM
@ SIMPLE
First learn some facts abt Karnataka..
BJP doesnt have its presence in Hassan,Mandya,Chamarajanagar,Bangalore rural seats(vote share likely to be less than 10%) Thats why total vote share is leass in that…
In 2004 COngress polled arnd 33% in LS where as BJP arnd 30% But still BJP won 18 seats
April 16, 2009 at 5:25 PM
simpleon, your analysis is that of a simpleton.
It’s ONLY in South Karnataka that BJP isnt Strong and thatz the reason why The Vote difference between BJP and congress is low.
as Compared to Assembly Elections, BJP’s voteshare in Karnataka has Increased as per The Analysis.
April 17, 2009 at 6:56 AM
Here are the facts for BJP in Karnataka.
1) In Mangalore Loksabha seat, congress led BJP by 5000 votes in last year assembly election. However BJP rebel in Puttur won 25000 votes(Still BJP won putturu). BJP for sure is going to win Mangalore come what way.
2) In Bangalore Rural, Kumaraswamy is JD(S) candidate. People forget that in 2004 loksabha election in Kanakapura BJP candidate was second to congress and Kumaraswamy’s father former PM was third. Also BJP MLA from Bangalore South had defeated Kumaraswamy in Kanakapura loksabha election in 1998 loksabha election. Bangalore rural is formed out of kanakapura. BJP has MLA’s in Rajarajeshwarinagar, Bangalore South and now Channapatna. In Ramnagar last year BJP was second to Kumaraswamy and congress was third. I believe the fight in this seat is between kumaraswamy and BJP and I would rate BJP chances around 40 percent.
3) In Chamarjanagar, BJP has fielded a popular candidate who was son of previous JD ministry in Hegde cabinet. BJP has got a fair chance of wresting this seat in a traingular fight with congress and JD(S).
3) In Mandya it is 4 cornered contest with Sarvodaya party also strong with JD(S), congress and BJP. BJP has around 150000 votes in Mandya seat and if congress defector brings in 50000 more votes BJP is definitely home here.
4) A difficult seat is Hassan . But however BJP chances have improved here also. In 1999 congress person who defeated Devegowda has defected to BJP. BJP has around 200000 votes in Hassan and if another 50000 votes they get they are thru.
BJP will definitely win Tumkur and Mysore.
Generally Karnataka voters vote for BJP in national elections. Considering these factors
BJP may win 20-22 and tough fight in rest of the seats.
Congress 3-4
JD(S) 1-2.
April 18, 2009 at 6:09 PM
As Minister SriRamlu’s cousin is contesting from Raichur constituency, Chance of winning here is also high now… Congress Nominee may get rejected due to some issues with his caste certificate.In that case BJP win is almost sure in raichur..
BJP Will win3/5 from Hydbd Karnataka
BJP wil win 6/6 from Mumbai Karnataka
BJP will win 3/3 from Coastal Karnataka
BJP will win 3/3 from Central karnataka (Shimoga,Davanagere and Durga)
BJP will win 3/3 from Bangalore city
BJP will win 2/8 from SOuth karnataka(Old mysore region)
BJP Has high chance of winning 20 , Tally can go upto 24(not 23) as I mentioned
April 20, 2009 at 3:51 PM
Shantesh,
1. Thank you for accepting your fault about BJP getting 54% vote share. Even Gujarat BJP does not have 54% vote share! Gujarat BJP had 47% vote in 2004 LS elections.
2. yes, I know Congres got close to two percent voteshare more than BJP in 2004 LS polls. Yet they got 10 seats lesser than BJP.
That primarily happens because Cong presence is spread throughout karnataka, unlike BJP which is strong in Mumbai Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka. As a result it sweeps these two regions.
BJP is able to convert its votes into seats. While Cong is not able to do so because of its thinner spread.
But this time, with a one percent difference (38% to cong and 39% to BJP, it is not easy for BJP to get 23 seats) Let me tell you why.
a) A small difference of one percent voteshare cannot mean a difference of 16 Lokh Sabha seats! NO WHERE IN THE COUNTRY HAS THIS EVERY HAPPENED>
you say cong will get 7 and BJP 23. Thats a difference of 16 seats! I find this ridiculous.
This time, there is tacit understanding between Cong and JDS in at least 6-8 seats. Shimoga, Dharward, Davangere, Chikodi, Bangaloer Central (a brahmin candidate is expected to cut into Ananth Kumar votes), bangalore north (surendra babu, a gowda is expected to cut into Chandre Gowdas votes)
When there is a tacit understanding, votes get converted to seats. As simple as that.
The same happened in West Bengal in 2004 elections.
Cong got 15% vote share and got six seats.
Trinamool got 29% vote share and got just one seat!
Thats because Cong is very strong in few seats and it converts these votes into seats.
Trinamool was spread throughtout Bengal, but in each of these seats, it did not reach the threshold of a winner because it was not strong enough.
This time there is an understandign between Cong and TMC. This means this combine will easily touch 18 seats compared to the combined 7 seats last time.
That is the power of alliances.
The lesson here is to focus. Instead of trying to expend all the party’s energies in whole of karnataka, Congress would do well, if it concentrates in Hyd karnataka, Bangalore and Southern Karnataka..If it puts up strong candidates in these seats, and has a tacit understanding with JDS, Cong can easily win up to 12 to 14 seats.
For example, if Cong had Jaffer Sharief in Central Bangalore, it would have been a walkover for him. Traditional Cong votes plus the over 4.5 lakh Muslim and Chritian votes would have enabled his victory easily.
if Cong had SM krishna in South Bangalore, he would have won hands down.
if cong had Krishna byre gowda in north bangalore, his chances of winning would have been good.
So it would have been a 3-0 instead of a 0-3 that is facing Cong now, in Bangalore.
Cong cannot win any Mumbai Karnataka or Coastal karnataka seat. no point in even trying to put up a show.
April 20, 2009 at 4:53 PM
Thats true…
But in Hydbd Karnataka again,,
Bidar seat cant be won by Dharam Singh.Bellary is anyway will go for BJP….Raichur can be for BJP,We saw that in byelection devdurg people voted for BJP That too by decisive 16000 votes..and its miniter SRi ramlu’s cousin who is standing here…
There is also analysis that Capt Gopinath would harm Krishna Byregowda more than ANthkumar as he is drawing the crowd who were attracted by Krishna byregowda for his qualiification and age.. Even if u go by caste analysis in the region(Which I dont think matters) ..Vokkaligas,Brahmins form equal number..and hence cancel each other…JDS Candidate might be hardly able to get5% of brahmin votes….
aCCORDING TO dECCAN hERALD,lINGAYATS will play role in deciding the winner here(abt 1.2l voters),now Somanna being in BJP ,It shld be easy win for Aananthkumar
April 20, 2009 at 5:04 PM
COming to Coastal seats
1)Uttarakannada:Margaret ALwa has already lost it due to infighting in congress.and also delimitation has good effect on BJP(Kittur and Khanapur BJP seats have been added)..Winning margin for BJP must be more than 50000 VOtes
2)Udupi-CHikmagalur: BJP has played masterstroke by fielding Sadananda Gowda very much earlier.He has been able to connect with the people very well in chikmagalur area(my hometown) ..Udupi is known region for him..So chikmagalur dist will give Huge lead to BJP… Udupi might give small lead to COngress..But it shld be note the COngress candidate is one who was defeated by more than 25000 votes in assembly by BJP..Hnece u cant expect huge lead for him
3)mANGALORE(dAKSHINA kANNADA):
Aassembly result :BJP-4 COng-4 TOtal votes cong lead by 5000 votes
By seeing the demography after delimitation one would feel that COngress has upper hand as it has 30% of minority population.Here VOtes are completely polarised…..Not in terms of caste but its majority Vs minority…Belthangady and moodabidri which voted for good candidates of congress might vote for BJP now…However Bantwala which gave narrow victory for OCngress will give big lead to COngress…
pUTTUR bjp REBEL was able to get 25000 votes,EVen now we have hardcore RSS Rebel.But now latest news is that AFter SOnia’s remark on RSS..ALl RSS have unianomiously decided that they wont vote for Rebel(in assembly 20% RSS VOtes went to rebel).SO its advantage BJP in coastal as well..
AND The survey (SUvarna) was taken before Congress candidature was announced and hence congress blunder havent come to the notice in this survey
April 21, 2009 at 12:52 AM
BJP got less % of votes in 2004 than Congress because it contested only 24 seats and won 20/24 , not bad…
It had alliance with JD(U) in 4 seats, which lost all 4 seats. Incidently 3 of 4 seats were in South Karnataka , Hassan , Mandya and Chamarajanagar.
So don’t be surprised do see the rise in vote % and seats for BJP this time.
April 21, 2009 at 6:41 AM
Dharam Singh Lost Assembly Elections last time.
And Bellary would come BJP Way?
Bellary is considered to be congress stronghold. Isnt it?
April 21, 2009 at 8:52 AM
No Raj
Bellary is BJP’s fort now…
In 2004 election BJP Won the seat for the first time…In 2008 assembly election BJP won 7/8….
April 21, 2009 at 8:59 AM
Good news from Kannada daily Vijaya karnataka
There was something called poll meter which gives the sense of constituency.In which he ahs given the pulse of 9 constituencies…
according to him
BJP is Expected to win by huge margin in Chitradurga and Kolar seats(I thought kolar would be 55-45 chance but was happy to see this)
BJP Is comfortably ahead in Bellary,Bangalore North and Bangalore South….
BJP is slightly ahead in Bangalore central
where as JDS Enjoys comfortable lead in Bangalore rural and its neck to neck fight in Tumkur between BJP and JDS ,Wwhere JDS Is ahead by very very narrow margin…
Congress has to satisfy itself with only one seat of chikballapur…
Accoridng to me Chikballapur was 50-50 between BJP and cong..and I never expected BJP in kolar….
As i have mentioned earlier its well known that Bangalore rural will be JDS way…Tumkur definitely tight fight..
Only disappointing was chikballapur but good surprise was kolar
April 21, 2009 at 9:32 AM
Good to Hear
April 21, 2009 at 10:49 AM
Shantesh’s analysis is completely off mark.
1. BJP did an operation lotus in Turuvukere, it weaned away Jaggesh, but it lost that seat. Just because Somanna has joined BJP, does not mean voters in Govindrajnagar will automatically vote for BJP.
2. Check out today’s (April 21st )Bangalore Economic Times ..there is an analysis on Bangalore South. It says winds of change are blowing. Krishna Byre Gowda stands a better channce than Ananth Kumar because of youth factor, because Krishna has no baggage, because he is suave, sophisticated, clean, because anti-incumbency against Ananth Kumar, because of Gowda and Kuruba domination in this constituency, Because SM krishna has been drawing huge response, because a poor gathering attending yesterday’s rally in Basvangudi, only hardcore BJP supporters will vote for Ananth Kumar, Captain Gopinath and Radhakrishna will eat away a sizeable part of Brahmin vote…clearly it is advantage Byre Gowda in this constituence.
April 21, 2009 at 11:28 AM
U urself has said that it will be 3-0 for BJP in Bnagalore..
Now again U -Turn like Karunanidhi???
April 21, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Somanna is not what u think.
Yesterday the people in Bapujinagar SLums were waiting for the procession of CM Yediyurappa..ALl the leaders Ananthkumar, Venkaiahniadu and Yediyurappa were there..allmost all the people who gathered there were very happy,But evryone were asking only one question WHwere is Somanna? He has done so much things to us we would like to see him first… Just in 5 mins Somanna joined the group and the whole crowd wa happy….
Ok let me consider that only Somanna along with his family votes will only swing away from COngress,,even in that case considering Govindrajnagar for COngress(i meant somanna votes for congress) BJP total votes polled were 35000 more than that of congress in assembly..
Ofcourse both elections are different,But Bangalore south people(I am from same const) prefer BJP Its evident in 2004 LS result(2004 assembly result BJP-1 Cong-7 LS Result BJP won by 45,000 votes)
April 21, 2009 at 11:55 AM
I shall grant that some votes will swing towards BJP in Govindrajnagar, because of Somanna factor.
But no election depends on one factor.
I have mentioned several other factors which will nullify the advantage of Sommana factor.
if you are talking about 30,000 vote lead for BJP in this constituncy, in the last assembly polls, let me give u some other facts.
JDS and Cong have tactical understanding in 7 seats. In most of these seven seats, in the last assembly polls, the combined votes of JDS and Cong is much much higher than BJP. By this logic Cong should win these seats easily .
So please understand this point first.
ALso, regarding Bangalore South, I did nto make any turnaround. I was only reporting what Economic Times has reported..and usually a financial newspaper is more accurate than other regular newspaper.
While I still think Ananth kumar holds the edge, a surprise may not be ruled out here.
April 21, 2009 at 12:23 PM
Yes whatever u said is true… But as u said understanding wont help.FOr example..COngress did not contest from Davanagere constituency in assembly election.If their entire votes had gone to JDS..THen it would have been problem to BJP.But BJP candidate won ove rJDS by 40,000 votes..I am expecting swing away from congress from that of assembly bcoz thats how Karnataka genrally votes in Loksabha,I mean to say there will be swing away frm congress compared to assembly(reference Assembly election 1999,2004 and LS 1998,1999,2004)
As u said there is understanding between JDS and congress in these seats
1)SHimoga(JDS-NO candidate): Here JDS had its presence only in one segment(Bhadravathi) and hence it doesnt matter here
2)COstal seats of udupi-chikmagalur and dakshina kannada: JDS dint have much presence in DK,Wwhere as it had small presence in CHikmagalur area(Kadur segment only,but I am sure that BJP WIll get huge lead from cikmagalur as COngress candidate is not at all known to this region)
4)Chikkodi:(JDS-No candidate) It seemed like JDS started to have presence in this area but in the end we came to know that it was his personal chrishma by which Umesh katti won the seat( He got elected form JDS and then joined BJP and won by 50,000 votes in relection)
5)Uttara kannada: JDS is trying to play spoiler by putting Brahmin candidate(smae asthat of BJP’s) But THERE might be some vote division in Kumta segemtn where JDS has some presence, But JDS candidate is not capable of getting more than 30,000 traditional BJP votes..(last time victory margin here was ARND 1.5 lakh) of course Bangarappa back in COngress would take away arnd 25,000 votes from BJP.But still its not enough to defeat BJP
6)Bellary:(no candidate from JDS) JDS HASDD presence when MP Prakash was there, but now again it doesnt have much presence here… But ofcourse It would help CONGRESS A BIT..but BJP is in good position here,,ATa max it might be neck to neck but definitely not advantage COngress
7)Bangalore south:jds HAS fielded brahmin candidate(smae as that of BJP’s) but he might hardly manage to split 10,000 BJP votes.(He is not a known figure in Brahmin community)
8)Tumkur: (Congress by placing a weak candidate it wants to ensure JDS victory,and also the candidature of lingayat swamiji was a conspiracy by JDS to split the votes)-According to me JDS-Congress plan has succeded to a little bit here..I see JDS bit ahead in neck to neck competition here
9)Mysore: Congress has fielded Kuruba leader vishwanath(smae as that of BJP’s) to split the vote.JDS has fielded VOkkaliga.But generally Malnad vokkaligas dont vote for JDS at all..they either vote fr BJP or for COngress..If congres had fielded vokkaliga and JDS had a kuruba..I guess there was chance of defeat of BJP..But now chances are looking bright for BJP in this neck to neck competition with JDS..(Caste doesnt matter much inside Mysore city(3 assembly segments and 2 coorg dist segments)
I dont see any other constituency whereunderstanding is there in any other constituency
April 21, 2009 at 12:28 PM
1.Chikodi is a sure Cong seat.
because JDS has supported Cong in this seat. in the 2008 assembly polls, the combined vote share of JDS and COng has a massive 2.71 lakh lead over BJP. It’s not easy to overcome such a massive margin in 10 months time especially when the Cong candidate is a strong one.
2. Chamrajnagar is a suer Cong seat.
because Cong has 1.10 lakh lead over its nearest rival. And to boot, this time the Cong candidate is Siddaramiah’s choice…Siddu is working overtime to ensure his victory.
3. Chikkaballapur is sure Cong seat. (70 K lead for Cong). Plus Kurubas have swung towards Cong this time.
4. Despite yeddiyurappas presence in last assembly polls in Shimoga, the combined vote share of JDS and Cong is 50,o00 votes ahead of BJP. Since JDS is supporting Cong, this seat can also be counted as a sure seat for Cong.
5. Similarly, Mysore and Raichur, can be counted as sure Cong seats. Both gave nearly a 60, 000 lead for Cong, plus u have the strong Siddu factor this time who is actively campaigning for Cong.
I have only taken constituencies where cong had a lead of 50, 000. And since JDS is supporting Cong covertly and overtly, you can also add JDS votes to Cong, which makes Cong virtually unbeatable in these 6 seats.
Plus Cong can easily win Bidar, Gulbarga. good chance in Bijapur also.
All in all, Cong can expect to win more than the nine last time, while BJP is bound to decrease. Less than 18.
April 21, 2009 at 12:32 PM
why simpleton, in Karnataka, congress and JD(S) will Win all 28.
Right?
you are a first grade Idiot.
April 21, 2009 at 12:33 PM
you must be a Christian slave of KKK trash.
congress wont be able to win 3 lok sabha seat in Karnataka.
April 21, 2009 at 12:49 PM
You are factually wrong.
1. In 1999 Cong got majority of 170 seats in assembly. Cong also got 18 seats in LS. So where is this swing away from Cong?
2. In 2004, Cong got 60 odd seats in assembly and just 8 LS seats. That is more or less equal. No swing here against Cong.
Even if there is a marginally swing in terms of vote share against Cong, it does not make much difference in the seats.
Why? Because of the following:
Even if there is a swing towards BJP in terms of vote share in whole of Karnataka, it will not be of much use for it, in terms of seats. Why?
1. BJP is nearly saturated in Mumbai Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Central Karnataka. EVen if they increase their vote share in this region, it hardly makes much difference. because they have already got maximum seats from here.
2. BJP’s vote share in south karnataka is way lesser than Cong. To overcome this, they have to havea 7-8% swing for BJP. But, by the looks of it, it does seem Cong and JDS are holding on to their areas of strength in Southern Karnataka. BJP can never expect a 8% swin in South. Even if it gets 2% to 3% swing for it in south karnataka, it will mean ZERO additional seats.
And when i Say south karnataka, i don’t include Bangalore.
3. IN bangalore, there is a massive swing against BJP. In the 2008 assembly polls, BJP had 60% vote share. IT is down to 45%. This prediction is according to Vijaya karnataka Suvarna Survey. This is one of the reasons why Ananth Kumar may lose, as analysed by Economic Times.
April 21, 2009 at 12:52 PM
we have congress geniuses here for whom : 170=60 and 18=8.
April 21, 2009 at 12:53 PM
on may 16th 2009, you will commit suicide simpleon.
April 21, 2009 at 12:53 PM
because your chritian congress will be Routed.
April 21, 2009 at 2:15 PM
I am not sure abt chikkodi seat but other 5 seats in Mumbai Karnataka are sure seats of BJP…
And if u have a look at the corect facts of 1999 election.
In Mangalore and CHikmagalur COngress won 6/8 seats.But loksabha seats went to BJP.. In 2004 JDS won 4 seats in Mysore where as COng won3 and BJP won one seat It was BJP which won LS seat….
Did u hae a look at todays vijayakarnatak
Wwhich says allthe Bangalore city seats will go to BJP
April 21, 2009 at 2:25 PM
WHoever u ask in Bijapur,Jigajinagi is set to win from Bijapur…
Bidar will also be in BJP’s way
Raichur is tough battle where COngress has small advantage for sure…
Ok let me take ur analysis
1999: COng:170 seats MPs:18(170/224 is narly 21-22/28MP seats on exactval moreover there will bemany const wher cong would have won 5/8 seats Ideally COng shld have reached 24-25)
BJP:42 MP seats:10(BJP hsld have got 5 seats, How come it got 10??)
2004: COng:65 MP Seats:8(Number of seats are appropriate I agree
BJP:79 MP seats:18(It shld have got arnd 11 seats,Isnt it swing towards BJP???)
WHen BJP
April 21, 2009 at 3:19 PM
Shantesh
1. I never said Bijapur is easy Cong win. Maybe BJP has the edge, but I won’t rule out a cong victory.
2. i made a factual error. I cross checked on the net. Congress won 135 seats in 1999 karnataka assembly polls. 135 assembly seats corresponds to 16 LS seats. But Congress actually got 18 seats, which means there was a two percent swing TOWARDS Congress in the LS elections.
Also like you agreed in 2004 polls, congs share in the assembly polls was equivalent to its Lok Sabha share, there was no swing against it.
So, your theory that people always swing towards BJP in LS elections compared to assembly polls is proved wrong. Karnataka people have swung towards Congress also. If they have swung towards BJP in 2004, they swung towards Cong in 1999.
3. This time, I admit, there may be a marginal swing towards BJP in whole of Karnataka. But the marginal swing is not sufficient to increase its seats from 18 because:
a) Increase in vote share in Mumbai Kar, Coastal Kar and Central Karnataka will get almost NO additional seats, because BJP’s seats are already saturated in these regions.
b) Increase in vote share in South karnataka has to be to the extent of 7%, if they have any chances of getting a good number of seats. A marginal increase of 2-3% will not fetch any ADDITIONAL seats, because their base vote share is pretty low already.
c)As far as your Mysore example of 2004, of course, BJP won the LS seat, inspite of JDS winning four seats from that region. Here, the crucial factor is not how many assembly seats won by each party, but the key factor is by what margin was JDS ahead of BJP in all the eight constituencies put together. IF the margin was less than 25, 000, then it’s not difficult to overcome that margin in the LS polls.
Which is why I have taken only those constituencies where Cong has a margin of over 50,000 in the 2008 assembly constituencies. Such constituences are Shimoga (cong +JDS + SP)Raichur, CHikodi, Chamrajnagar, Chikballapur, These seats will be tough for BJP, especially when Cong has strong candidates in such constituencies.
d)Yes, i did have a look at today’s Vijay karantaka. it says BJP will bag three seats here in Bangalore. The same Vijay karnataka said there is a 20% swing against BJP in Bangalore, in its survey.
e) did you read today’s Economic Times? it says the winds aer changing in Bangalore South. Krishna stands a better chance than Ananth.
April 22, 2009 at 11:17 AM
FIRST PHASE ANALYSIS BY VIJAYA KARNATAKA
TOtal seats:17
BJP with moderate/Big lead:10
BJP with very small lead :1(Allmost tossup between thre eparties)
JDS with modertae/Big lead:1
JDS with very small lead:1(Almost tossup between BJP and JDS)
Congress with moderate lead:2
Tossup seats:2(bidar and chikkodi between Cong and BJP)
According to me Both should go to BJP…ANyway giving one seat each to BJP and cong tally would be
BJP:12
Cong:3
JDS:2
My ANaalysis for remaining 11 seats which goes to poll on 30th April
Places where BJP will have moderate/Big lead: 6 (Dharwad,Haveri,Bagalakot,Udupi-chikmagalur,SHimoga and Davanagere)
Places where BJP will have very msall lead:2
(Mysore->Its between BJP nad JDS,COngress is nowhere in the scene
Dakshina Kannada(Mangalore): AFTER DELIMITATION The constituency has 30% minority votes, which may trouble BJP)
Places where JDS will have lead:1
Places where COngres shas lead:1
tossup:1 (Mandya, Its between Congress nad JDS, BJP No where in the scene)
SO in third phase
BJP:8
Cong:2
JDS:1
April 22, 2009 at 11:30 AM
According to shantesh, BJP should get 20 seats minimum.
I don’t agree with it.
Today’s Kannada prabha has said in Bidar Dharam Singh is ahead, while Vijay Karnataka feels Dharam singh is behind.
Media always has this habit of over-estimating BJP and under estimating Cong.
Even if BJP manages to retain 18 seats, it wil be a defeat for the party nationally, because BJP is looking to gain substantially in karnataka compared to last time, in order to increase their over all tally.
Yesterday’s TV showed the bookies betting 160 plus seats for Congress and BJP getting 105 plus seats. A margin of 50 plus seats.
Clearly, BJP is declining. it is the third successive Lok Sabha election, its strength is declining continuously.
April 22, 2009 at 12:58 PM
hey friends,
stop this BJP and Congress talking…
tamilnadu got more thatn 3lakh crores in 5 years…. lalu called us as “dirty people”.. bangalore name is shining across the world. but central governament is not giving anything to karnataka. cong and bjp mp’s are only listen to high command…
in politics everybody is corrupt… atleast if local party wins in MP election state will have some say. JDs may be better choice for MP election.. let them join to any party to form govenment but kannadigaas will have say in that govt.
educated people should first think this.. hogenakal falls dam is going on because in tamil nadu no cong no BJP…
think this and vote correctly.
April 24, 2009 at 5:08 PM
JD(S) WILL WIN DEFINETELY IN FOLLOWING SEATS
BANGALORE(RURAL)
BANGALORE(CENTRAL)
TUMKUR
HASSAN
MYSORE
MANDYA
CONGRESS WILL WIN IN FOLLOWING SEATS
CHICKABALLAPUR
KOLAR
CHAMARAJANAGAR
RAICHUR
GULBARGA
MANGALORE
SHIMOGA
IN REST OF THE SEATS 30 PERCENT NECK TO NECK FIGHT BETWEEN
BJP AND CONGRESS AND BJP MAY WIN 12 TO 13 SEATS.
April 24, 2009 at 5:19 PM
SHANTHESH PLEASE COMMENT ABOUT THE FOLLOWING CONSTIUENCIES
KOPPAL
CHITRADURGA
GULBARGA
SHIMOGA
DAVANAGERE
BELGAUM
April 24, 2009 at 5:50 PM
Simple – Don’t spread cock and bull stories. NDTV liars showed their opinion poll.
They show 28 seats for AP. Every one in AP is laughing at NDTV crooks. These crooks are trying to influence public opinion. The biggest joke is they show in TN CON party 10 and UPA at 25 or 30.
AP – CON party < 10 may be even 6. Mark my words.
TN – CON party 2 and DMK alliance 6.
You can rely on corrupt media morons in Delhi and keep dreaming. But the ground realities are ifferent.
April 24, 2009 at 8:16 PM
JD(S) Winning 6 Lok Sabha Seats would be Day Dreaming even for Deve Gowda.
They would At the most win 2 parliamentary seats.
In my View, they wont be able to win besides Hassan Parliamentary Seats
April 24, 2009 at 8:18 PM
@ Simple
Do you really believe in NDTV (Never Deliver True Version) ?
Exactly as Manoj said, they just want to project polls in favor of Congress. Did you say media is biased towards BJP ? This is a joke…
Didn’t this same media (NDTV,CNN- IBN) project Karanataka as hung assembly and Gujarat going to Congress.
I can understand if you don’t like/belive in BJP and prefer congress, but we need to look into these realistically.
Facts,
2004 BJP got 80 odd seats in state assembly, 2009 It has over 112 (majority). If you say it is because of delimitation the same is true for Lok Sabha this time.
2004 BJP contested only 24 seats won 18 , JD(U) contested 4.
In 2009 BJP is contesting 28 seats, Congress in disarray, JD (S) struggling to find candidates in North Karnataka, Why can’t they win 24 seats…
But again talking realistically they will win 20 seats.
Also don’t u believe BJP has far much better manifesto (IT,Security,Infrastructure) when compared to Congress.
I mean be honest, I am not against Congress rule but they have hardly done anything worth mentioning in last 5 years.
I don’t say BJP is perfect, but they performed much better.
Gujarat has a GDP growth of 10.5 % , Shivraj Chauhan has brought out such a successful scheme of Girl Child Education, Raman Singh provided excellent governance and initiated “Salwa Judum” to fight naxilism. BJP supported Nitish govt has turned lawless bihar into model of restructuring.
Lastly, the news about bookie, they didn’t show any people on the interivew, and when bookie’s quote 80 paise for congress getting 150, it means they’ll give u 80 paise for 1 Re Invested. That implies that bookies don’t think Congress will cross 150 otherwise which fool will distribute money…
April 24, 2009 at 8:22 PM
I agree with Raj, other than Deve Gowda and Jr Deve Gowda (Kumaraswamy) , JD(S) winning any other seat is like Day Dreaming…
April 24, 2009 at 8:49 PM
What NDTV did was – Let us do analysis of Phase II. You will assume that Phase II is based on what they they found on the ground. Since thet can’t use exit polls since they are banned, they put their numbers from opinion poll. This is sheer manipulation by those crooks.
April 24, 2009 at 8:59 PM
Absolutely…
Didn’t us see how Prannoy Roy was showing the number game to show that govt without Congress is impossible ?
To show his neutrality he even tried to show an very difficult scenario with BJP forming govt.
All based on cooked up numbers. Trying very hard to push congress to people who are yet to vote…
April 25, 2009 at 1:29 AM
@ Simple
Here is what is called Vision, Do you think Congress has any ?
BJP’s Infrastructure vision for India- A revolution waiting to happen!
Promises~Impact
Rivers will be linked~Every farm will have water
Construct water conservation facility in each village and expansion of micro-irrigation~More crop per drop
Power Sector
Additional 12000MW in 5 years~24 hr electricity all over
30kwh/month to every home and 6kg/mth gas~LPG all over India
Modernization of infrastructure to reduce T&D Losses~Save wastage and hence provide more electricity to Indians
ROADS
Completion of Golden Quad and east-west-north-south corridor~Pucca roads across India by 2014
Completion of Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna~Villages to have pucca roads
National Mission for Road safety~Save 45000 lives by reducing accidents
Railways
Metro in 25 cities, complete 100 major rail projects~Faster and more comfortable public transport
Dedicated freight corridorCheaper distribution, better margins to farmers
Ports
Massive expansion of ports and development of inland waterways~Easy access to ports, save time and increase trade
Telecom IT
Unlimited Broadband at cable prices
Promotion of IT in Indian Languages~1.2 crore IT jobs in rural India
Multipurpose National Identity Cards~Prevent infiltration of foreigners
April 25, 2009 at 7:22 AM
Jds ofcourse will win hassan and bangalore rural seats… Earlier everyone had thought that mandya will be for jds.now it looks like congress is having uper hand there…. In tumkur there is cleart polarisation of votes of lingayats towards jds and vokkaligas towards jds… Good news for bjp is that tumkur rural segment wooth highest number of lingayats recorded 70 voter turnout where as vokkaliga area madhugiri witnessed 64 turnout…now its not easy for both parties here.anything can happen… no doubt that bjp will win shimoga..the only betting going on abt const is that whether it will be two lakh margin or one lakh margin victory….(shimoga being my neighbouring cont, i am in touch with shimmoga ppl) mangalore which was thought to be tough seems to be leaning towards BJP.but it also depends on voter turnout as minoirt form 29 percent of population here…. coming to mysore,assuming that jds will win bcoz of caste factor is just a dream..because two assembly segment of coorg never votes on caste… Military announcing support to bjp has huge effect in coorg…. Now it seems like congress will be in second place in mysore and jds in third position…., jds is just calaculating on basis of caste..people in karnataka say its not jatyatheetha janatadal( janatadal secular in kannada) its athi jaathi janatadal (too much castist janatadal)
April 25, 2009 at 8:51 AM
kumaraswamy is highly unpopular, so he would rather lose
April 25, 2009 at 9:49 AM
Hi,
kumaraswamy and his father are child in politcs.
April 25, 2009 at 11:33 AM
Dear friends,
Look ,what is going on the ground is just reversal of GE 2004 . That time , NDA was oveconfident and projected to win absolute majority and what happened you all konw it very well.
Here look at the change in the perception CNN IBN and have realised after inputs comming from the ground that congress facing complete rout and will go below their lowset ever tally and there is very likelihood of going below < 100 seats.
Look at the GE 2004 projection and average of all the projection was NDA getting 250- 280.
What happned ,NDA come down 188 which was the loss of 90 seats over the projection .
Here if we look at all the projection its below 200 for both UPA & NDA.
Look if the law average and dimininshing return applies , then congress will loose about 70-90 seasts and NDA will gain 50-70 seats over the projection and it will touch 230 to 250 which now looks unrealistic when the election started but look close realistic.
The NDTV and Dorab Sopariwal will sell Suppari and Pranoy NDTV has lost the credibility amongst the middle class completey and will bite the dust when the election were announced .
Its well known fact that they have been paid but they failed emulate and read the writing on the wall which very smart CNN IBN have just started realising and on receiving inputs from ground that Congress is loosing the ground and they have started behaving little more neutral.
By the time of 13th. May , you came to know that they all have changed and all projecting NDA aheads of UPA and when results declared , it will NDA…….
April 25, 2009 at 4:07 PM
Phase II Karanataka seat prediction
BJP – 13(Most likely)
congress – 1
JDs -1
tossup – 2
BJP seats – 13 (Bijapur, Bangalore South, Bangalore central, Bangalore North, Chikballapur,Uttara Kannada, Tumkur, Bellary, Chikkodi, Belgaum, Koppal, Kolar, chitradurga)
Highlights:
- Congress messed up with selection of candidates in some seats and also they delayed the announcement of siddharamaih as CLP leader(this might be visible more in phase2 like mysore). Details are as given below:
1. Bangalore central – congress would have put a stiff resistance had they fielded Jaffer sharif but instead they put Sangliana(who won from blore north in 2004 in BJP ticket by defeating sharif) much against the wishes of Sharif. Infighting in congress and a muslim candidate put up by JDs will give this seat in platter to BJP. Classic case of congress safe seat going to BJP kitty by sheer mismanagement and congress high command autocratic approach.
2. Bangalore North – Bastion of congress until 1998. But 2004 Bjp swing this seat to its favour with sangliana. Post delimitation some of Bangalore south areas like malleswaram, rajajinagar(traditional BJP strongholds) are added to Bangalore north whereas sivajinagar, RT Nagar(traditional congress strongholds are removed and added to blore central). Infact for this very reason JK sharif wanted to shift to Blore central. could be tight but BJP most probably come out victrious due to their candiate selection, strong vokkaliga leader from congress(Chandre Gowda).
3. Bangalore South – Traditional BJP stronghold, even post delimitation it remains a BJP stronghold. Also ananth kumar got all BJP heavyweights to campaign for him in this consitutency and also got LKA to unveil blore infrastructure doc before the elections. Also if voting percentage is anything to go by, wherein as usual young people kept indoors BJP would triumph. These things would neutralise any threat posed by strong congress contender Krishna Byre Gowda and also by capt. Gopinath.
Also if we look at voting patterns only 10 segments in bangalore crossed 50%(what a shame even doing all those campaigns and a public holiday announced by government) and they are in BJP strongholds like mahadevapura, malleswaram, rajajinagar, Mahalaxmi layout etc whereas sivajinagar, rt nagar tradtional congress strongholds there is a dip in voting.
With these trends it looks like all three blore seats except for Rural will be in BJPs kitty.
Chikaballapur – Another messup by congress in candidate selection. They have field Veerappa moily who is actually from uttara kannada here. It has caused lot of resentment in local congress circles including Jalappa supporters who are campaining actively for BJP and bound to have repercurssions in the election result. Also BJP has focussed a lot in this constituency by pulling all their star campaigners in this area. So, most probably this will be a safe BJP seat. Also BJP’s candiate selection would work in their favour.
Uttara Kannada – Eventhough BJP margin can go down with recent pub attacks, prayers halls etc due to undue/unnecessary coverage by media and also due to the presence of congress heavyweight margaret alva but the writing in the wall is clear. another BJP safe seat.
Bellary – strong BJP bastion coupled with money/musclepower of reddy brothers would clinch this seat in favour of BJP.
Chikkodi/Belgaum/Kopal/chitradurga/Bijapur – BJp strongholds and would continue to remain in this election as well.
Kolar – Gifted seat to BJP. Esp this seat have always sent congress except i guess once in 1990s but this time much to local congress leader’s wishes the congress has fielded former union minister Muniyappa. Coupled with wrong candidate selection, rebellion within congress, narrow victory margin last time would work in BJPs favour this time. Another seat swinging in BJPs favour.
Tumkur – Eventhough BJP’s candidature had some issues in the beginning(they had changed the sitting MP and given to Basavaraj and that has cuased some ripples within BJP initially but they have managed it very well by bringing all warring factions to work together. Eventhough it might be tight BJP might just push through in this seat.
JDs(Sure) – 1(Bangalore Rural – Kumaraswamy)
congress(Sure) – 1 (Gulbarga – Mallikarjuna Karge)
Tight call – 2 seats(Bidar, Raichur)
Bidar – Eventhough BJP won last time, this time congress heavyweight Dharam singh is contesting. very interesting race is on cards. My gut feeling is BJP might just pull through due to honeymoon period enjoyed by state govt and anti incumbency against central congress govt.
Raichur – BJP changed its candidate and put in a relative of Sriramulu(affiliated to Reddy brothers). This might spring a surprise in a normally congress stronghold. Also BJP is heavily campaigning in this seat.
April 25, 2009 at 6:24 PM
First of all NDTV has no credibility these days. Few people only still following the NDTV. And many news papers/ TV channels are polarised towards particular political party/group. So we can’t trust the all print media as well as news papers. Very few papers like “The Hindu” are giving impartial analysis in various seats.
As far as UPA is concerned, there is no trust on INC to any of its allies (NCP,RJD,LJP & SP). Already most of them moved away. And NCP is not cooperating in Maharastra at ground level to INC. So UPA is almost collapsed.
For INC the chancess are very less in retaining the seats expecially in AP(10-15 insted of 31), Jharkhand(1-2 instead of 6), Maharastra(8-10 instead of 13), Gujarat(4-7 instead of 12), Karnataka(2-6 instead of 8), Tamilnadu(1-2 instead of 10), Assam (2-3 instead of 9) & Delhi(2-3 instead of 6). Everybody including senior INC leaders accepting these figures officially/unofficially. Where as INC has bright chances in Kerala(12-14 against 0), Orissa (6-9 against 2), Rajastan (10-12 against 4). In the rest of the states J&K, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab & West Bengal on its own can’t increase its tally. Retaining those seats on an average itself is difficult. These are the facts that most of the INC leaders are accepting in internal discussions. And for INC, in these elections there is no major achivement to ask votes. This time especially in Sout India it will loose like anything. Let us see on 16-May-2009.
April 27, 2009 at 10:57 AM
mysore loksabha seat is the sure seat for jd(s)this time.
vokkaligas _4 lakhs,daliths_3lakhs,muslims_2 lakhs,lingayath,brahamin,kuruba,nayak(ST) _1 lakh each out of 16.5 lakhs total votes.
vokkaligas ,muslims,nayaks and madikeri peoples are strongly supporting jd(s).madikeri peoples are very much happy to choose local candidate jeevijaya JD(s)he is responding for the problems of the coffee growers.kumarswamy wave is there in all the 6 segments of mysore district.
in mysore segment bjp may get lead only in KR constiuency,chamaraja,narasimharaja,hunsur,periyapatna,chamundeshwari jd(S) is taking lead in large margin,congress in second place.
last time kuruba votes was 2 lakhs so it was favoured bjp candidate vijayashankar belongs to same community.after delimitation kuruba vote was come down to 1 lakh ,this votes defnitely goes to congress candidate vishwanath who belongs to same caste and community leader siddaramaiah is favouring him.
daliths are supporting jd(s)in mass because they are anti against siddaramaaiah in kharges opposition leader factor
bjp leaders &workers are not happy in their organisation due to their internal problem.peoples of mysore &madikeri
are very much angry on bjp government for not giving mininestrial berth for both the districts &imposing district incharge ministers from outside.there is no surprise if bjp goes to third place also.
April 27, 2009 at 11:07 AM
why, why cant jd(s) win all 28 Parliamentary seats anna?
you must be a die hard jd(s) fan or may be you are a member of deve gowda family
April 27, 2009 at 12:11 PM
raj iam not a fan or member of devegowda family,what i am
predicting is true.if i am telling truth why u irritating like this?HAVE YOU GOT ANYTHING FROM BJP OR CONGRESS PEOPLES?
PLEASE VOTE FOR JD(S) AND TELL YOUR FRIENDS TO VOTE.
JD(S) IS A VOICE OF RURAL INDIA.
April 27, 2009 at 1:42 PM
Vote for JD(S) so that Karnataka becomes the Worst state and deve gowda and co can loo the treasury of The state.
kumaraswamy was The Worst CM.
People rejected JD(S) and pushed it to third spot.
even if deve gowda retains hassan, it would be an achievement for JD(S)
April 27, 2009 at 1:43 PM
Sorry Mr. Anna, JD(S) is force of family on the people of Karnataka
April 27, 2009 at 1:52 PM
I dont deny that JDS has chance of winning Mysore seat.
But all JDS people calculate the winnability on Caste equations only..
THey do not know that Caste equation dont work in coastal and malnad segments(cOORG 2 ASSEMBLY SEGMENTS IN mALnad)
Coorg two segments,and Krishnaraja,chamaraja will give lead for BJP
Narasimharaja,CHamundeshwari for COngress
Hunsur,piriyapatna for JDS….
chANCE OF WINNING for BJP is bot more than that of JDS..Second might be JDS or congress…
But I dont say that its BJP sure seat but definitely BJP ahead in the race
April 27, 2009 at 2:16 PM
Mr. anna, anyway, You have The Right to Vote for Whom You Wish.
But, JD(S) is A Corrupt Family’s Corporate house
April 27, 2009 at 3:30 PM
Anna
U r forgetting few of the imporatnt points..
Coorg has highest number of ex Army men who are voting for BJP…
And ur thinking that Jeevijaya being local candidate wont help JDS Much as COorg has never supported JDS,If he had contested from COngress,he had a chance but now definitely not…
Ur thinking that coffee growers are in problem is a big joke, Being a coffee grower, I know the situation.. Its from the past two years COffe planters are getting reasonable rates for coffee and hence no such problem Exists …
Aand if the caste was the only equation, Then Prahlad Joshi(Brahmin) wouldnt have won from Lingayat dominated DHarwad.. Jaffer sharief wouldnt have won from Vokkaliga dominated Bangalore north…
As I mentioned..JDS is number one castists party..DO u know what S Stands for in JDS..It stands for secularism
But according to JDS,Caste politics is secular
April 27, 2009 at 3:58 PM
bjp people calculate the winnability on lingayath caste equation only,why can”t jd(s) people?for what acheivement
people of karnataka will vote for bjp?people of karnataka have never seen this type of worst,corrupt,unlawfull,inefficient government in the past.
people are eagerly waiting to remove this dirty govt.they have looted the treasury by all means in just 10 months,what other parties have made it in last 50 years they have made it in 10 months.this is the acheivement/development of the bjp.
20+seats to bjp is just a joke and dreaming and some peoples of bjp are saying this to influence the voters.
bjp is changing to blp(brahmin,lingayath party)after step down of yediyurrappa it is only bp(brahmin party)
after election no electricity.no water,no development speech also.
yediyurappa is the worst,inefficient………
words are not enough to tell for its improper administration.
he is a servant of shobha &reddy brothers.
in nda govt terrorism was at the highest level.please take 3 examples of parliament attack,kandhar incident,terrorist
crassing indian border.these 3 are very shameless things to bjp peoples.they dont have moral right to talk about terrorism.
if bjp people dont want the muslim votes,please do the following things first from karnataka.
1.remove all minority morchas
2.remove muslim minister from the cabinet
3.tell yediyurappa to announce the same
in mysore muslim corporator was bought by bjp peoples for 30 lakh ruppees,if you dont need their support why you bought?dont show substandard,people will teach lesson.it is a clear indication of divide and rule policy b/w religion &caste.
this is the first and last bjp govt in karnataka.dont boost up the things in favour of bjp if you have any offerings from them.
bjp can purchase rejected/strenghtless leaders but not voters.
dont dream bjp is utmost in karnataka,after election your dream will spoil and people will beat those who talk in favour of bjp.
if you have any concern about common man ,farmers,helpless
please change your mind to support jd(s) for the best governance,development &welfare of the people.
you go and ask anywhere in india about karnataka,they will tell good opinion about HDD &HDK.is there any leader in bjp from karnataka have that much of recognisation all over the nation?
i think some RSS(rastriya sulugarara sangha) peoples have spoiled your mind.i wish for the speedy recovery.
i think this is enough for you to stop commenting in favour of bjp.
April 27, 2009 at 4:14 PM
shanthesh
please mind JD(s) took more than 40000 votes in last assembly
election from 2 segments of madikeri even the party is not in the good position.
jeevijaya contested from congress secured 54000 votes,this time he will secure 80000 votes.
dont compare the situation on the past grounds,this time the situation is entirely different.
April 28, 2009 at 7:15 AM
BSY has A Reputation of Being Pro Farmer.
April 28, 2009 at 8:55 AM
VIjayakarnataka POLL METER for second phase
1)JDS Comfotably ahead in Mandya
2)BJP Comfortably ahead in Davanagaere
3)JDS Marginally ahead in Hassan(DeveGowda)
4)BJP Marginally ahead in Mysore,CHamarajanagar (“Anna” thinks that JDS will win this seat,but according to Vijaya karnataka JDS is distant third)
5)50-50 chances for BJP and congress in Shimoga
According to it, among the six seats
BJP-3
JDS-2
Tossup-1
But according to me
Shimoga is sure seat for BJP….
Chamarajananagar might go COngress way….
Ohter things are OK..
so in my analysis
BJP-3
Cong-1
JDS-2
The remaining 5 seats shld be for BJP
April 28, 2009 at 10:39 AM
ANd also here is some news from the first phase
1)BangaloreNorth->BJP sure seat
2)Bangalore Central->TOugh fight between BJP and JDS ..50-50 FOR both
3)Bangalore south->BJP has slight edge( Earlier it was thought to be cakewalk for AananthKumar, But terrorist supporter (Yes congress candidate was seen in the protest ralli against ” Anti terrorsim Jaatha”,which mean he supports terrorism activities) giving tough fight))
4)Bangalore Rural->Cake walk for Kumara Swamy (JDS)
5)Chikkaballapur->Tough fight between BJP and congress..If Moily gets defeated it will be his hatrick…
6)Kolar–> BJP seems to be ahead, Everyone doubts about independent candidate who supported BJP has played double game…
7)Tumkur->BJP seems to be loosing..Devegowda’s caste trick seems to have worked…JDS having upper hand
8)Uttara kannada->Margaret Alwa of COngress is loosing heavily, Interested to see whether its 1lakh margin or two lakh margin
9)Bijapur-> BJP is comfortable
10)Belgaum-> COngress bastons(like gokak) reported low voter turnout..BJP comfortable
11)Bidar-> BJP has slight advantage,But very tough contest
12)CHikkodi-> BJP’s katti seems to be comfortable
13)Gulbarga-> Two honest persons are facong tough battle…50-50 chances for BJP and COngress
14)Koppal-> THree way contest..BJP seems to be ahead due to split in anti nationalists vote
15)Bellay-> Reddy seems to have delivered win to BJP
16)Raichur-> seems to be tough battle with COngress having an edge
April 28, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Bangalore north,bellary and uttara kannada are sure shot seats for BJP.
Bangalore rural,bangalore central,and tumkur are sure shot seats for JDS way.
Raichur,chikkaballapura and gulbarga are sure shot seat for congress.
So sure seats for parties in first round are
BJP – 3
congress – 3
JDS – 3
probable leading once are
Congress slightly ahead in kolar(even malur BJP mla has worked for KHM and varthur prakash)
JDS seems to be slightly ahead in chitradurga.ratnakara babu might win with his father support
dharamsingh seems to be slightly ahead in bidar.
bijapur with BJP ahead
so slightly ahead seats
BJP – 1
Congress – 2
JDS – 1
cannot predict
Koppal – BJP has fielded a new face.all three are in tough fight
chikkodi – tough fight
belgaum – tough triangular though more with congress and BJP
bangalore south 0 tough fight with ananth kumar and krishna byre gowda
So chances are parties in first phase are
BJP – 3-11
Congress – 3-9
JDS – 3-6
I think i have given a realistic prediction.
April 29, 2009 at 9:19 AM
Vijaya karnataka Predictions for second phase
today’s poll meter
1)Dharwad: BJP comfortably ahead
2)Haveri:BJP slightly ahead of COngress
3)Bagalakot:BJP slightly ahead
4)Udupi-CHikmagalur: BJP comfatble lead
5)Mangalore(Dakshina kannada) : 50-50 Chances for both BJP and COngress
Yesterday’s poll meter
6)Hassan:JDS ahead
7)Mandya:JDS ahead
8)Mysore:BJP marginally ahead
9)CHamarajanagar: BJP marginally ahead
10)Davanagere:BJP comfortably ahead
11)Shimoga:50-50 for both BJP and COngress
Total prediction of Vijaya karnataka for second phase
BJP:7-9
Cong:0-2
JDS:2
April 29, 2009 at 9:29 AM
W ehave one more survey from Kannada prabha..
Its not actually survey, It can be considered as who wins from Catse equation
ACcroding to Kannadaprabha PAPER COngress will win maximum seats followed by BJP
Its purely based on caste analysis…
And the same KANNADAprabha paper had tld that BJP would get maximum seats in assembly..
BUt BJP fans need not worry..Bcoz The C-FOre Suvarna survey team which was with Kannadaprbha then,now has joined woith Vijaya karnataka
So Vijaya Karnataka nanlysis are more reasonable npw
April 29, 2009 at 2:08 PM
vijayakarnataka is a BJP paper,dont beleive the reports of this paper.every one knows this,if reporter reports the real picture, if the report is not in favour of BJP THEY ARE NOT accept the report &instruct their staff to report in favour of BJP.if you have any friends in VK ask them they will tell you the same.
April 29, 2009 at 2:09 PM
KannadaPrabha is anti-BJP papaer….
April 29, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
May 4, 2009 at 10:37 AM
With some inputs from others, Here is what I feel abt karnataka now
1)Bidar-> 50-50 chance for BJP and COng
2)Gulbarga->Adv COng
3)Raichur->Adv Cong
4)Koppal->Slight adv BJP
5)Bellary->BJP sure seat
6)Shimoga->BJP sure seat
7)CHitradurga->Adv BJP
8)Davanagere->BJP sure seat
9)Tumkur->Adv JDS
10)Kolar->Adv BJP
11)chIKBALAPUR->50-50 FOR bjp AND coNG
12)Bangalore north->BJP sure seat
13)Bangalore central->50-50 for BJP and JDS
14)Bangalore south->Slight adv BJP
15)Mysore->Adv BJP
16)Chamarajanagar->50-50 for BJP and COngress
17)Mandya->Adv JDS
18)hASSAN->jds Sure seat
19)Bangalore rural->JDS sure seat
20)Uttara kannada->bjp SURE seat
21)Udupi-chikmagalur->BJP sure seat ((Many papers are telling that BJP might get setback inudupi,but they are not considering chikmagalur segment which gives atleast 70k lead to BJP,COngess at max can get lead of abt 30k from udupi segment)
22)Dakshina kannada->Adv BJP(Itw as thought to be 50-50 seat but high voter turnout in BJP bastons Puttur and Sullia,BJP shld be happy now)
23)Dharwad->BJP sure seat (Prahlad joshi may become Cabinet minister if NDA aocmes to power)
24)Haveri->Adv BJP
25)Belgaum->Adv BJP
26)Chikkodi->Adv BJP
27)Bagalakot->BJP sure seat
28)Bijapur->BJP sure seat
BJP sure seats->9
Adv BJP->9
jds SURE SEATS->2
aDV jds->2
aDV coNGRESS->2
50-50 BETWEEN BJP and JDS->1
50-50 between BJP and cong->3
BJP:18-22
cONG:2-5
jds:4-5
October 14, 2010 at 1:26 PM
we must also conserve water even if we have lots of them’.;