Kerala is one of those states where public like to change their preferences alternatively. Two main front in election fray are INC led UDF and CPM led LDF. These two fronts have a third opponent in BJP, which is making its way in the state with the help of RSS. Last election was a clean sweep for left front. In assembly election also they got comfortable majority. But this time scene is looking bleak for lefts, though increasing presence of BJP in some constituencies can give them benefit due to fracture of vote base of UDF.

1. Kasaragod: generally has been a left stronghold but now UDF is making inroads. BJP is also looking to give good fight here. Though its getting stronger can take away possible victory from UDF.
2. Kannur: after the delimitation many boundaries have changed but political equation remain more or less same. With Irikkur, Kannur, Mananthavadi being UDF stroghold, Azhikode, Koothuparamba are with LDF, Other areas have close race. Now the anti-incumbancy can play a spoil sport for LDF
3. Vadakara: famous for violent election process. UDF has a clear edge. There is a strong possibility of BJP getting more than 15% votes, but it is very unlikely to change the result. JDS might help UDF here.
4. Wayanad: It is a newly created Lok Sabha constituency. Traditionally been a UDF area. In recent assembly elections LDF won some seats here, but in LokSabha election, UDF is favoured.
5. Kozhikode: Restructuring of kozhikod parliament constituency have given a upper hand to LDF.but in the new political scenario UDF camp  believe they can overcome these mathematics and statistics. Muslim  league is victory factor for UDF. JDS might help UDF here.
6. Malappuram: a Muslim league fort, this time also same result is expected
7. Ponnani: one more league fort, though CPM is trying to get a share of muslim votes by wooing other muslim parties (PDP)
8. Palakkad: Very tight race is expected and BJP might try to support UDF as pointed out by some of readers of this blog. But UDF has to control its internal problems , if they want this seat.
9. Alathoor: LDF might claim an upper hand in this area, though the past trends suggest that BJP is getting stronger, still not a threat to LDF.
10. Thrissur: Now we can’t predict a strong political favor to both LDF and UDF.Influence of christian community and new circumstances give confidence to UDF.at the same time LDF point out the previous election history. BJP might hold UDF back.
11. Chalakkudi: Newly formed seat out of Mukundapuram. As same as old mukundapuram we can say chalakkudi is UDF Stronghold. Christian community have a strong infrluance in chalakkudi and other four legislative assembly constituency from ernakulam district. Kodungalloor and new kaipamangalam move With LDF. BJP cant claim a majour role in election here. But they have influences in this constituency especially in Kodungalloor and Kaipamangalam.
12. Ernakulam: famous for its Christian result. Though BJP is pushing hard, but K V Thomas of UDF is looking like the winner already.
13. Idukki: The presence of the large Adivasi-Dalit population and also the Tamil ethnic minorities in the plantation sector also make the constituency different from the rest of the State. It is most likely to go UDF way this time.
14. Kottayam: With the grand alliance of the various Kerala Congress factions in place, there is every chance of the party making a strong case for Kottayam in the next Parliament election. As for now UDF is front runner.
15. Alappuzha: strong anger against sitting LDF MP, so you know….
16. Pathanamthitta: UDF candidate has a clean image and traditionally this seat has been a stronghold of UDF, so situation is unlikely to change.
17. Mavelikkara: Christian community and NSS have strong influence in Mavelikkara Constituency. With support of strong party machinery  Mainly CPIM expect they can over come these cast and religious equations.
18. Kollam: left parties CPI, CPM, RPI have strong presence in this area and they are eyeing for one more win here
19. Attingal: last time it was a cakewalk for CPM, this time also, though not cakewalk but still LDF is most likely winner.
20. Thiruvananthapuram: loksabha constituency keep a unpredictable nature itself.so LDF and UDF have equal possibilities in this constituency. The allegation and counter allegation of BJP links traded between LDF and UDF has virtually inducted insularity in Kerala politics. BJP will have to ensure that the growing BJP influence in the capital is maintained. If managed properly BJP has a possibility of winning this seat.

Now we can surely predict that though it is not a wave against them but conditions are not favourable for LDF. Possible results:
Congress: 10, Muslim league: 2, Kerala congress: 1 [UDF: 13]
CPM: 5, CPI: 1 [LDF: 6]
BJP: 1

Next in this series will be Chhattisgarh and Odisha. I am covering states in sequence of election date. so keep reasoning

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Pre-poll prediction by Arun Nehru and case of possible post poll alliances
2. India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
3. Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
4. Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
5. Tamilnadu pre-poll prediction 2011: Amma has slight edge

Author: Chakresh Mishra

technocrat turning to be a bureaucrat. I am an IIT Kanpur & IIT Delhi alumnus, civil services aspirant and a politico-socio blogger. I love cricket, movies and above all politics of India :-)