by Chakresh Mishra
Mar 27, 2009Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
- Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize
Kerala is one of those states where public like to change their preferences alternatively. Two main front in election fray are INC led UDF and CPM led LDF. These two fronts have a third opponent in BJP, which is making its way in the state with the help of RSS. Last election was a clean sweep for left front. In assembly election also they got comfortable majority. But this time scene is looking bleak for lefts, though increasing presence of BJP in some constituencies can give them benefit due to fracture of vote base of UDF.
- Kasaragod: generally has been a left stronghold but now UDF is making inroads. BJP is also looking to give good fight here. Though its getting stronger can take away possible victory from UDF.
- Kannur: after the delimitation many boundaries have changed but political equation remain more or less same. With Irikkur, Kannur, Mananthavadi being UDF stroghold, Azhikode, Koothuparamba are with LDF, Other areas have close race. Now the anti-incumbancy can play a spoil sport for LDF
- Vadakara: famous for violent election process. UDF has a clear edge. There is a strong possibility of BJP getting more than 15% votes, but it is very unlikely to change the result. JDS might help UDF here.
- Wayanad: It is a newly created Lok Sabha constituency. Traditionally been a UDF area. In recent assembly elections LDF won some seats here, but in LokSabha election, UDF is favoured.
- Kozhikode: Restructuring of kozhikod parliament constituency have given a upper hand to LDF.but in the new political scenario UDF camp believe they can overcome these mathematics and statistics. Muslim league is victory factor for UDF. JDS might help UDF here.
- Malappuram: a Muslim league fort, this time also same result is expected
- Ponnani: one more league fort, though CPM is trying to get a share of muslim votes by wooing other muslim parties (PDP)
- Palakkad: Very tight race is expected and BJP might try to support UDF as pointed out by some of readers of this blog. But UDF has to control its internal problems , if they want this seat.
- Alathoor: LDF might claim an upper hand in this area, though the past trends suggest that BJP is getting stronger, still not a threat to LDF.
- Thrissur: Now we can’t predict a strong political favor to both LDF and UDF.Influence of christian community and new circumstances give confidence to UDF.at the same time LDF point out the previous election history. BJP might hold UDF back.
- Chalakkudi: Newly formed seat out of Mukundapuram. As same as old mukundapuram we can say chalakkudi is UDF Stronghold. Christian community have a strong infrluance in chalakkudi and other four legislative assembly constituency from ernakulam district. Kodungalloor and new kaipamangalam move With LDF. BJP cant claim a majour role in election here. But they have influences in this constituency especially in Kodungalloor and Kaipamangalam.
- Ernakulam: famous for its Christian result. Though BJP is pushing hard, but K V Thomas of UDF is looking like the winner already.
- Idukki: The presence of the large Adivasi-Dalit population and also the Tamil ethnic minorities in the plantation sector also make the constituency different from the rest of the State. It is most likely to go UDF way this time.
- Kottayam: With the grand alliance of the various Kerala Congress factions in place, there is every chance of the party making a strong case for Kottayam in the next Parliament election. As for now UDF is front runner.
- Alappuzha: strong anger against sitting LDF MP, so you know….
- Pathanamthitta: UDF candidate has a clean image and traditionally this seat has been a stronghold of UDF, so situation is unlikely to change.
- Mavelikkara: Christian community and NSS have strong influence in Mavelikkara Constituency. With support of strong party machinery Mainly CPIM expect they can over come these cast and religious equations.
- Kollam: left parties CPI, CPM, RPI have strong presence in this area and they are eyeing for one more win here
- Attingal: last time it was a cakewalk for CPM, this time also, though not cakewalk but still LDF is most likely winner.
- Thiruvananthapuram: loksabha constituency keep a unpredictable nature itself.so LDF and UDF have equal possibilities in this constituency. The allegation and counter allegation of BJP links traded between LDF and UDF has virtually inducted insularity in Kerala politics. BJP will have to ensure that the growing BJP influence in the capital is maintained. If managed properly BJP has a possibility of winning this seat.
Now we can surely predict that though it is not a wave against them but conditions are not favourable for LDF. Possible results:
Congress: 10, Muslim league: 2, Kerala congress: 1 [UDF: 13]
CPM: 5, CPI: 1 [LDF: 6]
BJP: 1
Next in this series will be Chhattisgarh and Odisha. I am covering states in sequence of election date. so keep reasoning 
May 31st, 2009 at 7:40 PM
Well Said Ritesh Bhai, InFact MNS was brainchild of antonio maino
May 31st, 2009 at 3:30 PM
Hi Lakshmi iyer,
When north indians were being beaten in Maharashtra, that time what was congress doing in Maharashtra. It is the best example of regionalism( fear of marathis votes) politics of Congress party.
Why did Congress take strong action against MNS.
Why are you supporting regionalism based Congress party?
Why are you justifying this action of Congress?
It means you support, attack on North Indians. First make yourself secular, nonregionalism, noncastism and noncorrupt.
After that point the finger on BJP.
Do not worry, I will give you lot examples, I will prove it Congress is communal, corrupt, castism and regionalism based party.
May 31st, 2009 at 3:21 PM
Hi,
Left has got 4 seats in Kerala because of BJP. Otherwise it was not possible for Left to get single seat in Kerala.
These basic things BJP should learn. Should increase own power in WB and Kerala. It will make Congress and Mamta weak in WB and Kerala.
May 31st, 2009 at 3:10 PM
Hi,
Because of BJP, Left was able to get this much of seats, other wise it was not possible for left to get more than 7 seats of out of 42 seats. I have told many times, Mamta can not survive without BJP.
If BJP leaves “Jay ho Mamta”. In coming assembly elections Mamta can not get more than 40% seats.
May 31st, 2009 at 2:52 PM
Hi Lakshmi iyer,
Congress is communal, corrupt, castism and regionalism based party.
See latest example of castism by Congress. Read the news which is given below.
==========================================================
New Delhi: Government will “look into” the issue of reservation for Other Backward Castes (OBCs) in private unaided educational institutions.
==========================================================
Why are you supporting the party which is having communal, corrupt, castism and regionalism background?
Manishanker iyer is having also same type of nature. Which you are having.
May 28th, 2009 at 1:52 AM
EVM Software tampered
Vote Count Tamper in 6 suspect states?
Was Vote Machines Tampered?
Declare Elections Null & Void.
http://www.politicsparty.com/hatch_analysis.php
May 27th, 2009 at 9:15 PM
You are living in Denial, LK.
The Fact is Obvious that Evangelists do NOT Consider Pagans as Equals.
May 27th, 2009 at 4:15 PM
Hi Lakshi,
BJP has never involved in this type of work. Do not blame BJP. Bajrang Dal and VHP have gone
against convsersion. The job of VHP and Bajrang Dal are to stop conversion.
Lakshmi, unforchunately you are highly immatured person. Problem with you, you do not
know anything. First go through Hinduism, Islam,Christianity and Communism then
use your mind, do not beleive in media. Read Capital. After that have a debate, you
have very less knowledge. Your mind has been hypnotized by non secular media. Apart
from this you can not understand anything.
Why conversion is so bad? Partition(It was based on religion) of India took place because of Congress. That is why Congress is communal party. Why are you supporting communal party. You talk about secular but you support Congress communal party. Why?. Do you know Kashmir’s problem is because of article 370. Do you know what is article 370?
May 27th, 2009 at 10:45 AM
i dont agree. you cannot generalise about a religion like that raj.. there are good people everywhere in every community
May 27th, 2009 at 7:16 AM
Those who convert do Not wish to live together.
It is A Fact that christians and muslims, the two cults from the desert do Not Respect Other Traditions.
May 26th, 2009 at 12:04 PM
i am against a forced conversion. but why to blame a community if some people are doing it. In kerala we co-exist with all communities, we even have jews in kerala.
we should show to the world we can live together.
India is quite diverse, both politically and religiously.
may be a handful people are doing this. They should be brought in front of court not to burn them alive. BJP’s agenda…
I don’t think people who are deeply religious and goes to church, temple or mosque do this. it’s some people who are well-intentioned may be political or other reasons do these…
May 26th, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Conversion is NOT A fundamental Right.
Conversion is Against The Constitution of India.
Abusing One Faith and terming One Particular faith as Wrong and Evil is Anti Constitutional.
Calling Any God/Godess as False is Anti Constitutional.
May 26th, 2009 at 11:14 AM
oh, what would you or your maino have done?
would they have said,Kill All Indians on Board?
We all know what your congress does.
go and lick America’s feet.
May 26th, 2009 at 10:19 AM
Raj we know what happend in kandhahar… why the terrorist have been coming to india.. who released the criminal mastermind mulla omar?
Why Indian people have terror of spiders now, all credit
goes to BJP.
Nobody is building churches, about conversion its people who has to decide what religion to follow and freedom to preach and follow its our fundamental right.
i dont think anyone can take the liberty of doing this by forcing someone.
May 25th, 2009 at 5:00 PM
Lakshmi Iyer, so growth is growing terrorists, building churches, encouraging conversions and that is development for you.
you are a shame on Humanity
May 25th, 2009 at 3:03 PM
Hi lakshmi iyer,
It is unfortunate you do not know anything, you do not know the meaning developement. What developement has MM singh and Rahul Gandhin has done in last five years. Just they have played communal, regional and caste base politics.
May 25th, 2009 at 2:08 PM
Modi is a secular humanist.. he’s destroying temples for growth, that’s an in joke ritesh…
He is not doing this out of thin air. Gujaratis are one of the most prosperous people in India including Ambanis. so whats the big deal if some developments are coming to Gujarat. THEY WANT TO DO SOMETHING FOR THEIR HOMELAND
Modi should do a healthy growth and development. what happens if a mad muslim or christan go against his plan; am sure things will go havoc..
look at congress. they have leaders like manmohan, rahul who sets exemplary leadership.
We need to recognize that we are living in a plural society.
CONGRESS IS COMMITTED to DEELOPMENT, DEMOCARCY, HUMAN RIGHTS AND PLURALISM.
May 25th, 2009 at 11:15 AM
Hi lakshmi iyer,
Lot of temples were broken in Gujrat by Narendra Modi. If Narendra Modi wants hindu votes, why has he broken hindus temple(temple were on near the road, to expand road it was necessary to demolish and it was famous temple also). Narendra Modi is secular person, secular person can do this type of job. Rahul Gandhi can demolish mosque(for developement to demolish useless mosque) because he needs muslims votes. He is not secular person.
Congress is communal party.
May 25th, 2009 at 10:27 AM
Krishnadas to be sacked very soon.. tension arise in Kerala BJP.. ayyo poye BJP poyeeeee
May 17th, 2009 at 9:58 PM
Exactly Dear Hari.
We Need Media At All India and in Non Hindi Speaking States(Not just south but also in East) both Print and Electronic.