Promise of Reason

Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.

Phases I-II were certainly advantageous to NDA. There were some setbacks to the alliance during Phase-III in the states of Karnataka and Gujarat. Overall the 3 phases has put NDA ahead.

But the alliance has little to consolidate upon in the subsequent 2 phases, which may be limited to small gains in Himachal, Western UP, Haryana, and Delhi. It should now focus on increasing the losses of UPA by either cutting down UPA votes, strategically transferring its votes to non UPA parties especially in TN and WB and finally restricting its losses in Rajasthan and Punjab. In fact if BJP helps Left restrict its losses in WB and Kerela, it would be an advantage to NDA as it would directly affect UPA numbers.

1. West Bengal – TMC-INC alliance would be in for a shock in their strongholds of Kolkata and its suburbs. There is a deep sense of anger in Kolkata and its adjoining districts over the NANO fiasco, which the CPI(M) is using to the hilt. The city and its adjoining suburbs would vote against UPA in a big way leaving them high and dry.

Seats in the Western part (Purulia, Jhargram, Bankura, Midnapur, Asansol) and Central parts (Bishnupur, Ghatal, Birbhum, Bardhaman, Bardhaman East Arambagh, Durgapur, Uluberia, Joynagar) are Left citadels since 1977 (even in 1984 during INC wave). Whenever INC did well, it was mainly due to the seats in Kolkata and its neighboring districts, which is still regarded as swing seats. Singur and Nandigram would affect the Left in the Southern districts (Tamluk, Kanthi, Mathurapur, Diamond Harbour) only and not the entire state as being projected by the media. Sources reveal lot of money is being paid to local dailies and channels of Kolkata, by the UPA, to project the vulnerability of the Left.

INC had won 6 seats in 2004 on its own. But very few people know that there was a tacit understanding between the INC and Left on the ground to defeat the NDA. Pranab Mukherjee was instrumental in this understanding, which explains why the Left immediately chose to support the UPA after the 2004 polls. The deadly arithmetic (INC-Left) was instrumental in NDA blanking out in the State barring 1 seat (Mamata Banerjee). In fact only after this understanding did Pranab Mukherjee decide to fight polls, probably for the first time since he joined politics in the 60s.

In 1999 (during the Vajpayee wave), Pranab Mukherjee had nearly forged a tacit unbeatable and unimaginable alliance in West Bengal; BJP-TMC-INC. But it was sabotaged by Mamata Banerjee. Had the alliance fought together, it would have won 26-28 of the 42 seats in the state considering the votes polled by the parties in 1999.

Voters of West Bengal are broadly split into Left [CPI(M), CPI, RSP, FB] and non Left (INC, TMC, BJP and other parties). A stronger BJP would help the Left in the state this time as it would split the opposition votes, especially in southern districts. What is also not known to many people is that this time the tacit understanding is between the CPI(M) and BJP in the ground. BJP is helping the Left by putting up strong candidates in tossup seats. Wherever there is a 50:50 chance for both alliances (Left and INC-TMC), BJP has put up strong candidates. For eg. In Kolkata North where Md Salim of CPI(M) is pitted against Sudip Bandopadhay of TMC, BJP has fielded Sri.Tathagata Roy, who is also quite popular in this area. This would wean away lot of Hindu voters traditionally voting for TMC/INC. In turn CPI(M) cadres have been found supporting BJP candidates in the seats of Krishnanagar and Dum Dum, which was won by BJP in 1999. BJP has good chance in Darjeeling and Krishnanagar seats.

State Left leaders have also given a muted response to the support extended to BJP by GJP’s Bimal Gurung (enemy of the Left) in the hills, other than making periodic complaints to EC. In fact, CPI(M) supporters were not allowed to go near the polling stations in the hills.

I feel that the results would be : INC = 3-5, TMC = 8-10, BJP = 1-2 (or 3 although unlikely), Left = 26-28.

1. Maharashtra – Ground reports suggests NDA doing extremely well in Mumbai-Thane (11 seats), and partially well in Marathwada / South Maharashtra (18 seats) regions, which went to polls in the 3^rd and 2^nd Phases respectively. These are the areas where NDA was wiped out in 2004. In fact seats like Sangli. Kolhapur, Satara, Ahmednagar face anti incumbency this time. Coastal belt (Raigarh, Ratnagiri, Maval) is a toss up with slight advantage to UPA.

My take is NDA = 18-20, UPA = 12-14 in these 3 regions of Maharashtra having 32 seats.

On predictions given in the blog titled “Promise of Reason – Pre poll prediction 2009”, I am not saying that the author is wrong. But if UPA still manages to hold on to its 2004 tally as per predictions given; means that UPA must have swept Vidharba in the 1^st Phase in addition to sweeping Northern part of the state (Nandurbar, Raver, Jalgaon, Dhule etc) in Phase-II. Only if UPA manages 10-11 seats (out of 16) in two regions, they would be able to get the projected tally of 23 seats. It also means that the much touted “BSP factor” is a big flop in Maharashtra.

I accept high MSP of cotton, good rains coupled with loan waiver has helped UPA to gain advantage in Vidharba but the big question is whether it would be a total sweep. Most of the field works for opinion polls in the state were carried out during 1^st – 15^th of March, 2009. During that time BJP-SHS was in its lowest ebb with Thackeray making overtures to Pawar and RJD/SP/LJP had not split from UPA. The overall opinion in the country was in favour of UPA then. Moreover, names of candidates were not released by most parties. In fact, my predictions in the blog “9 Northern state pre poll prediction by raja” were based on similar feed backs given to me. I had projected NDA = 21-23, UPA = 25-27 during that time. Things have considerably changed in the ground level since then, especially after Pawar’s flip flop and flirtations with 3rd front. Incidentally, Lok Satta has predicted UPA = 21, NDA = 27 after Round 3.

I also feel that the results would be : UPA = 19-21, RPI = 01, NDA = 26-28.

1. Uttar Pradesh – Please DO NOT write off Mayawati. I expect her to get around 26-28 seats in the Eastern and Central belts (Phases I-III) out of 48. In fact, Mayawati’s strength lies in the silent dalit voter, who stands steadfastly behind her even though her governance has been dismal. Dalit turnout was quite high in all 3 phases till now.

During the 2007 UP assembly polls, 23% of booths were declared sensitive and 15% hypersensitive; total 38%. Majority of them were in rural areas, especially with high dalit population. BSP share was around 48% in these polling stations. Data was obtained by filing an RTI application. It was also obtained that 81% of booths, in which the BJP was leading and 63%, in which SP was leading, were declared normal. Mostly sensitive / hypersensitive booths are not visited / interviewed by Media personnel on polling days, due to security reasons. They mostly interview voters from the “normal” booths thus overlooking the actual picture. This also happened during 2004 in which, SP led in 42% of the sensitive / hypersensitive booths, BSP in 33% and BJP way behind in 17%.

Yes. BJP is doing better than 2004 as upper castes are voting for the party unlike in 2007 assembly polls, due to Varun Gandhi issue. BJP had won a paltry 4 seats in Eastern and Central UP in 2004, which may go upto 9-11 this time. But surprisingly INC is also doing quite well in the seats bordering Amethi / Rai Bareilly, especially among minority voters, disgruntled dalits. But how much of it would get translated into seats is to be watched out for. SP would be the biggest loser and is expected to get 8-10 out of the 48 seats in Phases I-III.

Overall, even though I’m not sure about Western UP, I feel results would be : BSP = 37-39, SP = 18-20, BJP+ = 18-20, INC = 5-7, Others = 0-1.

1. Madhya Pradesh / Chattisgarh – No change from my previous blog post.

A highly divided opposition makes the task of BJP quite easy. Leaders of INC are busy squabbling among themselves leaving its cadres directionless in both states. Anti incumbency against sitting MPs is steadily gaining ground in both states but INC is unable to capitalise. Had INC put up suitable candidates and presented a united face, they would have won around 15-18 seats in these 2 states. But this is not happening on the ground.

My guesstimate for MP : NDA = 22-24, UPA = 5-7

My guesstimate for Chattisgarh : NDA = 8-9, UPA = 2-3

1. Assam – No change from my previous blog post.

Incumbent government is in extremely bad shape with a huge anti-incumbency against both State and Centre. Adding to its woes is the recent bomb blasts and the emergence of AUDF, which is eating away minority votes in large chunks. AUDF has allied with the Left/NCP thus damaging the prospects of INC further. BJP has stitched up a smart alliance with AGP/AGP(P) and is getting stronger day by day. INC sources fear that heavy weights like Santosh Mohan Dev may also bite the dust this time.

My guesstimate for Assam : NDA = 11-12, INC = 0-2, AUDF/NCP/Left = 0-1

1. Orissa – Ground reports are quite ominous to both BJD and BJP. It is an INC sweep in Western and Southern Orissa. Tribal areas have switched loyalty to INC for the first time since 1996. Coastal Orissa is an advantage BJD but not substantial. BJP is still carrying the baggage of anti incumbency of 10 years of BJD-BJP rule and is losing substantial votes in Balasore, Bolangir, Deogarh, Keonjhar, Kalahandi, Kandhamal areas. Christians are voting strategically against BJP this time. In fact voting %age of minorities is very high in both phases. Ground level reports suggest INC getting near to the half way mark in the state. BJD allies (Left, NCP) will blank out.

BJP’s strategy in Orissa was to ensure defeat of BJD instead of INC. It is a fact that INC is a divided house in the state and even if they win, infighting will start immediately after nomination of the CM.  Moreover, as INC is winning by default and not by popular mandate, anti incumbency would catch up very fast on the party; their leaders are known to be very corrupt and non performing. BJP expects this factor would work to its advantage in the next round of polls and BJD would become like JD(S). BJP is giving importance long term strategy over short term gains.

My guesstimate for Orissa : INC = 11-13, BJD+ = 6-8, BJP = 2-4

1. Bihar – Situation is fluid. NDA has swept first 2 phases. My take is NDA = 19-21, RJD+ = 5-7, INC = 0-1, in these regions having 26 seats.

3^rd phase was a toss up – too close to predict. Ground situation has changed. INC cadres have been advised by their central leadership NOT to go for the kill in the 3^rd phase and to lie low. They know too well that a weak RJD-LJP does not augur well for UPA especially when 2009 polls are going down to the wire and each seat would count in the final tally. Moreover, INC has little / no support base left in these areas and has failed to get any support from the upper castes and minorities here unlike in the first 2 phases. Further, INC feels that they have sufficiently dented Lalu’s hold on the M-Y factor and Lalu would be forced to give due importance to the party in future. RJD-LJP has already raised the white flag in the battle with INC and has withdrawn all candidates in Delhi in favour of the party. Phase III may give a split verdict. Phase IV would be advantage NDA. Watch out for Patliputra seat from where RJD supremo is fighting.

Overall, I feel results would be : NDA = = 26-28, RJD+ = 11-13, INC = 1-2.

But I make to one request to every one in this blog. PLEASE DO NOT write-off Lalu Prasad. He may lose this election but he can be back with a vengeance. Remember 1999 lok sabha polls – Lalu Prasad had lost his seat to Sharad Yadav by 30000 votes. His party got a measly 7 seats out of 54 in undivided Bihar even after allying with INC and CPI(M). The caste arithmetic was getting more and more against him, with the dalits rallying behind NDA as Ram Vilas Paswan was in JD(U) and Muslims beginning to vote for NDA as their rivals did not have any “Gujarat” to harp upon. OBC and Yadav votebase was also splitting. In spite of having his back to the wall, he came back in the 2000 assembly polls with a bang, surprising his own bitter critics and supporters.

Another fact on the ground; JD(U) is also keenly watching the performance of INC in these polls. If INC manages to increase its vote share to around 10-12% and wean away substantial minority votes from RJD, it is a matter of time that JD(U) would ditch BJP. Once it does so, LJP would follow suit and Nitish Kumar would call for early Bihar assembly polls by end-2009, with a formidable and unbeatable JD(U)-INC-LJP alliance commanding around 50-50% of popular vote.

1. Jharkhand – Huge anti incumbency against the incumbent Government but the ground level is getting more and more complex. Surprisingly RJD is doing well in 2-3 seats (Palamau, Rajmahal and Chatra) as most of the Independents in the assembly are rallying behind RJD, thus complicating the scene further. JVM is cutting down NDA votes and UPA is facing hostility from disgruntled JMM leaders. As a result there is no clear sweep for any alliance. Clear feedback is not coming from sensitive booths. Like in UP, media has visited “normal” polling stations only and extrapolated the results. Advantage is definitely with NDA. Had NDA allied with JVM and JD(U) given ticket to Sri.I.S.Namdhari, it would have been complete sweep. Dhoni’s brother campaigning for BJP in Ranchi has not helped the party and Subodh Kant Sahay (INC) is having the last laugh. Shibu Soren (JMM), Arjun Munda (BJP), Karia Munda (BJP), Yeshwant Sinha (BJP), Fukran Ansari (INC), Chandrasekhar Dubey (INC), Babulal Marandi (JVM) are also leading the race but hiccups remain. Other seats are tossups. Overall this state is too close to call.

My gut feeling is that the results would be like : NDA = 6-8, UPA = 3-5, RJD+ = 1-3, JVM = 1, Ind. = 0-1.

1. Gujarat –Quite a few setbacks have been reported by BJP party workers in Central and South Gujarat. Central Gujarat is reporting an INC sweep this time and is holding to its performance in North Gujarat. No “mau ka saudagar” controversy this time to help BJP. Candidate selection for BJP has been the undoing for the party. Selection of Dipak Sathi against Bharatsinh Solanki (INC) from Anand, C.R.Patil from Navsari has not gone down well with Modi’s core middle class voters. Similarly selection of Prabhatsinh Chauhan from Panchamahal, who had been accused of misappropriation from a co-operative bank, is weighing down heavily on the party. It was very surprising that Modi chose caste over development this time, which even his popular voters are questioning.

INC has selected its candidates carefully this time. Though they are putting up candidates in all 26 seats, they are concentrating on 19-20 seats only. Break up with NCP is not having any bearing on the results.

ST voters in Central Gujarat are very unhappy with BJP as they feel they were used by the party during 2002 riots and are being dumped now. The temple demolition drive carried out by the state has also ruffled some of the core voters of Modi. They allege that Modi did not touch roadside darhgas during the drive.

I would also reiterate what I had written in my earlier pre poll prediction. Recession has forced down industries and job losses are becoming a poll issue. One panchayat leader of a village in Surat area belonging to BJP, had candidly expressed the ground level is getting alarming and was becoming similar to the late 80s when a lot mills closed down, which ultimately led to the decline of the INC in the state. There is an undercurrent building against Narendra Modi as people feel that the state government is not doing enough to prevent job losses especially in North Gujarat and Surat belts. Central Gujarat may go to INC like in 2007. Surprisingly Nano is a non-issue in Gujarat, even though BJP is trying to make it one.

My guesstimate for Gujarat : INC = 11-13, BJP = 13-15.

1. Haryana – Huge anti incumbency against sitting MPs in the northern part (Ambala, Kurukhetra, Sirsa, Karnal). Bhiwani is a fight between Kuldeep Bishnoi (BSP) and A.S.Chautala (INLD) and Faridbad / Gurgaon are toss up seats after delimitation. Infighting is also hurting the party in these seats. But I have not got any ground reports from the state and my predictions are based on local media reports and discussions with NDA/UPA workers of other states.

I feel that the results would be : UPA = 4-5, NDA = 5-6.

1. Himachal – Honeymoon period for the BJP is still continuing with the opposition in tatters. If BJP works hard, it may be a clean sweep for the party.

I feel that the results would be : BJP = 3-4, INC = 0-1.

1. Punjab – Tytler-Sajjan controversy has done little to alleviate the Badal clan’s travails as the urban areas are rising in revolt against the Akali rule. The battle for Bhatinda where Badal dynasty and Phulkian dynasty (House of Patiala) are pitched against each other, would be a cliffhanger with slight advantage INC. N.S Sidhu is on a sticky ground in Amritsar with his Siddhuisms failing – O.P Soni being the frontrunner in this seat. Sidhu is not getting support from the traditional Akali strongholds and locals allege that he spends most of his time in attending “Laughter challenge” programs instead of his constituency. Jalandhar seems to be a cakewalk for INC with NDA not even campaigning seriously in this seat. State CM, Dy CM, DGP police and Chief Secy all being Jat sikhs has sent out a wrong message to urban Bhappa sikhs, Hindus and other Sikh-Hindu mixed practitioner groups who feel marginalised. In other words state would witness an INC sweep.

I expect the results to be like : INC = 8-9, BJP = 1-2, Akalis = 2-3

1. Jammu & Kashmir – No change from 2008 assembly poll results. Amarnath controversy would give BJP 1 seat in Jammu.

My guesstimate : INC = 2, NC = 2, BJP = 1, PDP = 1

1. Delhi – Only after the Tytler-Sajjan controversy has BJP got its act together. But I guess it was too late by then. BJP workers are still demoralized and the party is clueless on how to counter Sheila Dixit. Giving Sajjan Kumar’s brother ticket for outer Delhi has soothed a lot of ruffled feathers in the INC camp. However Tytler is still sulking, which may affect INC in that seat. LJP’s withdrawal of candidates in favour of INC is also helping the party. BSP factor is not working. Muslims, dalits are still favouring INC at the hustlings. Overall it is an advantage INC.

My guesstimate : INC = 4-6, BJP = 1-3

1. Uttaranchal – Khanduri-Koshiyari WWF is spoiling the chances for BJP. UKD is tacitly supporting INC to defeat BJP in Almora, Garhwal and Nainital seats. Resignation of Munna Chauhan would also affect the party in Tehri. B.S.Rawat’s position in Garhwal is also sticky with anti incumbency catching on with the MP. In fact after joining BJP, he had just scraped through in 2007 by-polls with the help of postal ballots.

My guesstimate : INC = 2-3, BJP = 1-2, BSP = 0-1

1. Rajasthan – BJP giving a ticket to K.L.Bainsla is unfortunately backfiring. Meena votes are consolidating behind the INC due to the above although the Meena strongman K.L.Meena is standing as an independent candidate. Gujjar votes are unfortunately getting split as some of the community leaders feel let down by K.L.Bainsla; at the same time Sachin Pilot is pulling away some Gujjar votes. Had BJP limited K.L.Bainsla to campaigning for the party only, such consolidation of Meena votes would not have taken place. Upper castes are divided with slight advantage to BJP and minorities are rallying behind INC. Unfortunately after the resignation of the BSP MLA’s the Mayawati factor has been severely dented and it is being perceived as a corrupt party. Anti incumbency has caught on sitting MPs of both BJP and INC. In fact, heavy weights like Sis Ram Ola (INC), Pusp Jain (BJP), Jaswant Singh Bishnoi (BJP) are also in trouble in their respective constituencies.

My guesstimate : INC = 14-16, BJP = 9-11

1. Andhra Pradesh – I would go by most blog, media, and newspaper reports predicting a TDP+ sweep in Telengana and some losses for the INC in the other regions. Based on various newspaper reports (both pro and anti BJP) and various blogs, discussions, opinions in the web, I guess that the situation in AP is similar to 2004 where 1½ months before the elections everyone was predicting a TDP/BJP sweep, whereas the ground level dramatically changed in such a short span to give the UPA a landslide win. Similarly this time till mid March’09, the incumbent INC was in the driver’s seat, predicted to win around 27-30 seats. But as campaigning progressed, TDP/Left slowly gained the upper hand.

Overall the picture would be : INC = 15-17, TDP+ = 21-23, Left = 1-3, PRP = 0-2, BJP = 0-2.

1. Karnataka – The Outlook magazine description of the state is quite apt – “Yeddy-Steady-Go”. State has given a saffron sweep in North, Central Karnataka. It is advantage INC in Phase II in old Mysore, Dakshina Kannada (courtesy Sri Ram Sene) and Udupi-Chikamagalur regions. Deva Gowda is winning Hassan. Bangalore is giving a split verdict unlike a BJP sweep last time. Despite all odds Ananth Kumar is winning South Bangalore. Bangalore central would go the INC way this time as after delimitation the minority votes are as high as 31%. JD(S) has put up a weak candidate against INC in this seat. In Bangalore Rural constituency JD(S) candidate Kumarswamy (son of Deva Gowda) is holding an edge as INC is tacitly supporting him here. Bangalore North is a tossup.

One thing is for sure. BJP cannot sit back and take things for granted in the state. Anti incumbency is building up on the party as it has very little to show in terms of achieving development, especially in the Coastal, Mumbai Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka regions. This would be catastrophic for the party in the 2013 assembly polls.

Overall the picture would be : BJP = 16-18, INC = 8-10, JD(S) = 2-3

1. Tamil Nadu / Pondy – Lanka issue or no Lanka issue. State would vote on predicted lines – this time an AIADMK+ sweep. This has been a hallmark of the state politics since 1970s. Power shortages, DMK and MK’s sons’ goondagiri, water shortages are the main issues this time and then the Lankan issue, which is an icing on the cake. Moreover, the rainbow alliance is with Jayalalitha this time. Only hope for BJP is the Kanyakumari seat – courtesy its alliance with Sarath Kumar; but it is an uphill task. Left would do well – courtesy rainbow alliance.

My guesstimate : AIADMK+ = 26-28, Left = 3-5, DMK = 5-7, INC = 3-5, BJP = 0-1

But dear readers; please do not be under the impression that AIADMK would jump into the NDA bandwagon post poll. For Jayalalitha, TN is more important as she knows very well that chances of her becoming PM are negligible. DMK is wholly and solely dependant on INC support in the state assembly. If DMK fares poorly, which is likely, Jaya would readily support UPA at the Centre and INC would reciprocate by withdrawing support to DMK, leading to fresh elections in the state. In fact INC has made up its mind to split from the DMK front post elections, to ensure that AIADMK does not go along with NDA. This is precisely the backdoor maneuvering being carried out by Ghulam Nabi Azad in TN, especially after PMK split.

1. Kerela – Infighting in the Left camp is costing dearly to the party. State is witnessing a UPA sweep. But RSS/BJP decision to transfer its votes to the Left has restricted its losses. Kasargod may fall into the BJP kitty although chances are dim.

My guesstimate : NDA = 0-1, UPA = 13-15, Left = 5-7

1. NE/UnionTerritories – Rest of NE, Goa and Union Territories would be as given below. Strangely Sri.P.C.Sangma (NCP) is supporting the BJP in NE, which may tilt the result of NE (Meghalaya, Arunachal and Nagaland) in favour of NDA. In the Union territories it is mostly about the anti incumbency factor against sitting MPs. Tripura is still a Left bastion.

State   NDA  UPA  Left  Others   Total

Manipur     0    2    0      0        2

Meghalaya    2    0    0      0      2

Arunachal     2    0    0      0      2

Mizoram     0    1    0      0      1

Tripura     0    0    2      0      2

Nagaland     1    0    0      0      1

Sikkim     0    0    0      1      1

Goa     1    1    0      0      2

Chandigarh   1    0    0      0      1

Dadra & Nagar     1    0    0      0      1

Lakshwadip     0    1    0      0      1

Andaman      1    0    0      0      1

Daman Diu     1    0    0      0      1

Total     10    5    2      1     18

THE BIG PICTURE

1. NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)]  = 195-200
2. UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC]    = 170-175
3. 3^rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP]    = 140-145
4. 4^th front [RJD, SP, LJP]         =     30-35
5. Others / Independents         =     01-02

NATIONAL PARTIES

1. BJP  =  150-155
2. INC  =  140-145

The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.

-Shiladitya Bose (Also known as Raja at this blog)