This analysis was published in recent telegraph. Arun Nehru still maintains that UPA is going to end-up way ahead than NDA. He has also pointed out that most of the parties can change side after elections. (Some have already did). My few comments are:

• He missed * on Left, as they can also switch side “to keep communal BJP out of power”
• After breaking up of SP-INC and RJD-INC, UPA has dipped very low in both UP and Bihar.
• BJD:10 is not likely now.

Here is his point of view on post poll posibilities:

THE ELECTION arithmetic is getting complicated as polls approach and the alliance structures of the future will only be evident after results are declared on May 16.

This chart shows minor changes but to understand the options for government formation it is necessary to show various groups and the likely direction they may take after the results are declared. As things stand, either the Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can form a government but do not rule out other possibilities.

For instance, the alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is sensible and we see groupings between the AllIndia Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Pattali Makkal Katchi and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIDMK/PMK/MDMK), and the Telugu Desam (TD) and Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS). What is there to stop these groups or others from arriving at a political compromise and settling for a common leader? They may well have numbers in excess of either the Congress or the BJP.

I have no intention to confuse the reader but all political parties are aware that numbers will deliver alliances. Anything can happen if either the Congress or the BJP gains or loses 5-10 seats in the polls.

I can give at least 10 different options which the floating groups can adopt. My feeling is that we will have a stable government, but the fact remains that the Congress and the BJP will have to learn a trick or two from the regional parties.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is the Congress candidate for the top post, but he has just undergone heart surgery and needs time to recuperate. So we cannot rule out the possibility of Mr Pranab Mukherjee, Mr Sharad Pawar or Ms Sheila Dikshit reaching the top post.

Then there is Mr Rahul Gandhi who, as general secretary of the Congress, will get full exposure during the elections.

Of course, the BJP has projected Mr L.K. Advani as its prime ministerial candidate and he is fully in control. But the party has a string of capable leaders and the most important one is the Gujarat Chief Minister Mr Narendra Modi, who is waiting in the wings. Also, since the party has excellent Chief Ministers in Mr Shivraj Singh Chauhan (Madhya Pradesh), Mr B.C. Khandhuri (Uttarakhand), and Mr Raman Singh (Chhattisgarh), it would not have to fear anti-incumbency vote in these states during the current elections.

We do not know the likely composition of the Third Front but political reality cannot be ignored. All regional leaders have experience, ability and charisma. I would not write off Mr Nitish Kumar, Mr Sharad Pawar, Ms Mayawati, Ms J. Jayalalithaa or Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav as contenders for the top job in the future. My personal feeling is that a regional group formation today will result in larger cooperation with power-sharing agreements if the parties can find a compromise candidate with a good image for the Prime Minister’s post. This can become the favoured option even if the Congress or the BJP maintain the figures given below.

The Left is still relevant even if their numbers drop from 65 seats to 33 seats, but they will get totally isolated if they obstruct regional forces from negotiating with either the Congress or the BJP. In this context, the Samajwadi Party general secretary, Mr Amar Singh, may well be a major player as he understands politics better than others. The joining together of the SP, RJD and LJP should give a suitable signal to both the Congress and the BJP that their options are limited in the future.

There is more than a possibility that regional forces will form a viable structure by May 16 and without them no government is possible at the Centre. We can expect two-three weeks of intense political activity after the results are announced.

The charts show the fluid situation. Next week, as trends in certain states become clearer, I will indicate the possible options which are available to all parties.

In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, PMK, Left, MDMK group is the frontrunner but, as in the past, a total sweep in either direction may not take place. A similar situation exists in Andhra Pradesh where all three areas of the state show a different trend and we can expect a mixed verdict. The situation in West Bengal can polarise further in favour of the Trinamul Congress and in Orissa, Mr Naveen Patnaik and the BJD, Left may not lose too many seats to the Congress.

Though the situation in Uttar Pradesh is fluid, I do not see either the BJP or the Congress gaining in any substantive manner. The political “accident” in Pilibhit may well go in favour of the BSP which averted a communal situation and acted firmly on the issue of law and order.

■ ARUN NEHRU is a former Union minister

Take a look at these related posts:

1. Maharashtra seatwise prepoll prediction by Arun Narendhranath
2. Kerala pre-poll prediction : UDF front runner, BJP might get lucky
3. Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
4. India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
5. Chhattisgarh pre-poll prediction : BJP bastion, congress might get consolation prize