by Chakresh Mishra
Apr 5, 2009Pre-poll prediction by Arun Nehru and case of possible post poll alliances
This analysis was published in recent telegraph. Arun Nehru still maintains that UPA is going to end-up way ahead than NDA. He has also pointed out that most of the parties can change side after elections. (Some have already did). My few comments are:
- He missed * on Left, as they can also switch side “to keep communal BJP out of power”
- After breaking up of SP-INC and RJD-INC, UPA has dipped very low in both UP and Bihar.
- BJD:10 is not likely now.
Here is his point of view on post poll posibilities:
THE ELECTION arithmetic is getting complicated as polls approach and the alliance structures of the future will only be evident after results are declared on May 16.
This chart shows minor changes but to understand the options for government formation it is necessary to show various groups and the likely direction they may take after the results are declared. As things stand, either the Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can form a government but do not rule out other possibilities.
For instance, the alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is sensible and we see groupings between the AllIndia Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Pattali Makkal Katchi and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIDMK/PMK/MDMK), and the Telugu Desam (TD) and Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS). What is there to stop these groups or others from arriving at a political compromise and settling for a common leader? They may well have numbers in excess of either the Congress or the BJP.
I have no intention to confuse the reader but all political parties are aware that numbers will deliver alliances. Anything can happen if either the Congress or the BJP gains or loses 5-10 seats in the polls.
I can give at least 10 different options which the floating groups can adopt. My feeling is that we will have a stable government, but the fact remains that the Congress and the BJP will have to learn a trick or two from the regional parties.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is the Congress candidate for the top post, but he has just undergone heart surgery and needs time to recuperate. So we cannot rule out the possibility of Mr Pranab Mukherjee, Mr Sharad Pawar or Ms Sheila Dikshit reaching the top post.
Then there is Mr Rahul Gandhi who, as general secretary of the Congress, will get full exposure during the elections.
Of course, the BJP has projected Mr L.K. Advani as its prime ministerial candidate and he is fully in control. But the party has a string of capable leaders and the most important one is the Gujarat Chief Minister Mr Narendra Modi, who is waiting in the wings. Also, since the party has excellent Chief Ministers in Mr Shivraj Singh Chauhan (Madhya Pradesh), Mr B.C. Khandhuri (Uttarakhand), and Mr Raman Singh (Chhattisgarh), it would not have to fear anti-incumbency vote in these states during the current elections.
We do not know the likely composition of the Third Front but political reality cannot be ignored. All regional leaders have experience, ability and charisma. I would not write off Mr Nitish Kumar, Mr Sharad Pawar, Ms Mayawati, Ms J. Jayalalithaa or Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav as contenders for the top job in the future. My personal feeling is that a regional group formation today will result in larger cooperation with power-sharing agreements if the parties can find a compromise candidate with a good image for the Prime Minister’s post. This can become the favoured option even if the Congress or the BJP maintain the figures given below.
The Left is still relevant even if their numbers drop from 65 seats to 33 seats, but they will get totally isolated if they obstruct regional forces from negotiating with either the Congress or the BJP. In this context, the Samajwadi Party general secretary, Mr Amar Singh, may well be a major player as he understands politics better than others. The joining together of the SP, RJD and LJP should give a suitable signal to both the Congress and the BJP that their options are limited in the future.
There is more than a possibility that regional forces will form a viable structure by May 16 and without them no government is possible at the Centre. We can expect two-three weeks of intense political activity after the results are announced.
The charts show the fluid situation. Next week, as trends in certain states become clearer, I will indicate the possible options which are available to all parties.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, PMK, Left, MDMK group is the frontrunner but, as in the past, a total sweep in either direction may not take place. A similar situation exists in Andhra Pradesh where all three areas of the state show a different trend and we can expect a mixed verdict. The situation in West Bengal can polarise further in favour of the Trinamul Congress and in Orissa, Mr Naveen Patnaik and the BJD, Left may not lose too many seats to the Congress.
Though the situation in Uttar Pradesh is fluid, I do not see either the BJP or the Congress gaining in any substantive manner. The political “accident” in Pilibhit may well go in favour of the BSP which averted a communal situation and acted firmly on the issue of law and order.
■ ARUN NEHRU is a former Union minister
May 4th, 2009 at 8:36 AM
Dear Hari, Thanks for The Information. I am Extremely Sorry for Not Responding Ealier.
May 3rd, 2009 at 8:52 PM
i think bjp got 186 seat very easily you are wrong besause bjp is so strong in 2009 compare than 2004 in many states
and i think nda got 268 and after result many left parties join nda so this 268 may also increase and they will absoulutly make goverment
April 25th, 2009 at 9:56 PM
Raj
CP Radhakrishanan is basically from Tirupur. His father Ponnusawmy was an LIC agent who had built up a lot of goodwill. Now that Coimbatore and Tirupur are two constituencies he was not considered further he is in the opposite camp that is against Ela Ganesan.
The Candidate for Coimbatore is a very young and dynamic cadidate called GKS Selavakumar. It is believed that he can give a good performance.
April 25th, 2009 at 6:34 PM
this time all congress leader face the big defeat in ele.2009.
April 25th, 2009 at 6:31 PM
this election i humble request to all of yuth plz vote or do not give the local party.this 2009 election UPA on clean sweap.NDA is on POWER.
April 24th, 2009 at 8:20 PM
Yes, I would Personally like to see BJP Win Both Kanniyakumari and Ramanathapuram Parliamentary Seats.
But, Why C P RadhaKrishnan has NOT been Given Ticket? I havent Hard anything about Him
April 24th, 2009 at 8:02 PM
Yesterday even Mr. Yogendra Yadav has credited the BJP in the first phases with a near sweep in MP, a performance on par with 2004 in Karnataka, an improvement over 2004 in UP, and noteworthy performance in Orissa & AP.
As regards Tmail Nadu today’s Indian express has clearly established that the BJP’s optimism at Kanykumari is not misplaced and with good candidates the BJP+ can hope to bag one or two more in particular Thirunavvakkarasar in Rmanathapuram, AISMK candidate from Thirunelveli. The BJP has put its best foot forward for this election with many senior and potentially good candidates being fielded.
April 24th, 2009 at 3:42 PM
only a loser would believe in what bookies and match fixers say. congress getting 163, my Foot.
congress would probably get 63 lok sabha seats and by 2014 they would get only 16 parliamentary seats.
April 24th, 2009 at 2:51 PM
Arun Nehru seems to be aiming for a political position if, congress comes to power. At the same time, since he is associated with BJP, he feels anyway he will get a better position.So, do not believe his articles. He is keeping both NDA and UPA warm, so that he benefits. IT is the BJP which will be single largest party and NDA Govt with LKA as PM.
April 24th, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Its not BJP which is loosing.Its Bookies and NDTV are SIMPLY loosing
April 24th, 2009 at 10:25 AM
Bookies are saying BJP will get 105 this time and Cong 163.
Clearly BJP is losing everywehre
April 10th, 2009 at 11:34 AM
Hi Indian,
First you should know about political system.
1. BJP is cadres based party. BJP is the only party in India,
who is not having any leader.
2. Cogress is not cadres based party, it is group of some strong leaders, who are running Congress. These leaders are leaving Congress.
3. Congress was 100% at the time of 1947, because of patriotic feelings.
4. BJP is strong because of its ideology.
April 10th, 2009 at 4:56 AM
Looks like everybody posting comments here wants BJP to win ! No objectivity just emotional rhetoric. I think BJP is very popular in cities and has a fair chance at emerging as the single largest party. Congress is actually gaining in rural strongholds which have done well during the last five years. I would give 50/50 chance to either BJP or Congress with a slight edge to BJP due to anti-incumbency.
April 6th, 2009 at 7:15 PM
Arun Nehru has no idea about the current senario. Strictly speaking he doesn’t know anything about the poll analysis. Just by giving random no.s to its favorite party/alliance, he wants influence/mislead the people. For him there is no funda to give above nos. Bertter to stop analyse next time onwards.
April 5th, 2009 at 6:49 PM
All these surveys appear to be an attempt just to rescue congress a sinking ship and to confuse the voter in order to reduce the BJP led alliance majority to the minimu possible.The so called specialists who try to impose their views on the pretext of surveys should realise that this kind of silly experiments have lost their credibility among the people.Has Arun Nehru really applied his mind while doing his survey or has he done it in exchange of gratification?
April 5th, 2009 at 6:17 PM
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April 5th, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Congress will get less than 100. And the final figure of congress would be atleast 20 less than 100.
Congress would Only get between 75-80 Lok Sabha Seats.
April 5th, 2009 at 4:15 PM
Hi,
Only BJP will get 180 to 190 seats. And alliance will get 45 to 55 seats.
April 5th, 2009 at 4:13 PM
Hi,
Congress will get less than 125. If Congress’s luck is bad, Congress may get less than 100 also.
April 5th, 2009 at 4:12 PM
Hi Raj,
Arun Nehru is child in politics. He has taken money from Congress.