by Chakresh Mishra
May 13, 2009Prepoll prediction by main stream media compilation
Image courtsey to Gaurav. Read Pre-poll predictions by Promise of Reason (NDA212, UPA175) and statewise analysis by Promise of Reason readers
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May 15th, 2009 at 9:34 AM
These predictions will be completely wrong…It is so hard to predict in multiparty system.Only states and seats where there is direct fight between two parties /fronts these kind of exit polls have some credibility…These all are hype generated by the media.
May 15th, 2009 at 1:56 AM
Suneet has made a valid point….
May 15th, 2009 at 1:38 AM
I feel India TV has done a better job,
http://www.indiatvnews.com/election09/newsdetails.php?id=858
May 14th, 2009 at 11:25 PM
While watching the NDTV Exit Poll program, I was usually keeping 2-3 seats extra for BJP in every state which comes near to realistic figures.
But for me the surprising figures shown for UP(14) and Maharashtra(18).
And I really appreciate Mr Surendra Kulkarni’s statement on the show… he clearly mentioned that these are not realistic figures but if some how the outcome on 16th will be the same then BJP would rather seat in opposition.
I am also having a view that if BJP is getting only 132 seats on its own that mean you are not even 50% of the required number then better seat in opposition. Ideally you should have at least 60% of (ideally 70%) required number in your kitty… this gives you sufficient backup to deal with number of smaller allies.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:05 PM
Manipulations can be done… but on the NDTV exit poll program itself Parnav Roy has given a very interesting information… Bookies are betting heavily for NDA Govt
And every one has to take bookies very seriously… Its not about rumors… its money
May 14th, 2009 at 10:38 PM
Look I will say both the congress and BJP sides to wait till the 16th of may…..What the 10 exit polls say could or could not be accurate.
one of my known person ones told me he campaigns for BJP and he gave money in 2004 general elections to the poor people to vote for BJP, but the people took the money and in the polling booth pressed the button for Congress. Thats how BJP was defeated on the 2004 general elections.
So people, who knows the people might say some party during exiting the polling booth but could vote for other.
I say wait till the 16th morning to confirm if the Exit polls are right.
May 14th, 2009 at 9:24 PM
@Suneet,
But none of the media outlets have predicted a rout for the NDA, have they? They are merely hedging their bets, putting the two formations close. Whichever formation comes up, they can now pretend that their predictions were within the bounds of error. They will claim they got the outcomes of Nagaland, Mizoram, etc right. They are clever lads and are making friends with both the lion and the tiger, so that no matter the outcome, they will not lose too much.
Regards,
Maidros
May 14th, 2009 at 8:46 PM
Suneet, This time NDTV,CNN-IBN,TimesNow are All conducting Deceptive Exit Polls to Break NDA Constituents like JD(U) and also prevent Potential Allies like TDP in alligning with BJP and force them make hasty statemtns.
Particularly, if you see Exit Polls in AP, it was Extremely Ludiculous.
In The Exit Polls, They didnt even give The Option of BJP, same in TN and Keral.
Further, a sample of 50 per constituency and a limited amount of constiturencies were sampled.
Not All 543 Constituencies samples were collected.
can there be a greater Deception.
Exit Polls are A Charade.
May 14th, 2009 at 7:00 PM
Maidros what will happen if opposition comes to power. Will the media not suffer the wrath of their power? Moreover, power is a lot more diffuse now a days. NDA is in power in many states and so is UPA and many third front and fourth front parties in other states.
May 14th, 2009 at 8:46 AM
@Suneet
I disagree with you. It is bias, but not for or against Congress/BJP. The bias comes from the fact that no newspaper/media outlet wants to go out on a limb and commit themselves to saying that the present rulers have no chance of coming back to power. If, in the unlikely event, the present regime comes back to power, the media is likely to suffer the full power of the rulers’ displeasure. The media bias is nothing more than institutionalised sycophancy (it is so much easier to say `jee huzur’, is it not?). Bad news kills the messenger first, and no newspaper wants to give the rulers the bad news. There is nothing more than that.
Regards,
Maidros
May 14th, 2009 at 4:08 AM
Lots of comments in this blog indicate that for some reason “main stream media (MSM)” (whatever that means) is biased against NDA. However, nobody explains the reason for that. Also, was mainstream biased in favour of NDA in 2004 when they were projecting huge win for NDA? Moreover, what will the MSM gain by projecting the wrong results after the elections are over except perhaps losing their credibility.
I know that most pre-poll and post-poll projections are going to be wrong like in 2004. However, it does not prove bias but incompetence on the part of Indian media. Also, methodology for surveys for complex polity like India is far from perfect.
May 14th, 2009 at 2:36 AM
I can’t believe how low NDTV & CNN-IBN are going even now, showing rigged exit polls.
On top of it, Pranav roy is complaining that since EC has banned exit polls, many people are showing these indirectly. Such a hypocrite. I remember how he was shoing that UPA can form govt going into numbers after phase 1-2 to booster UPA tell after serious drubbing in round 1 & round 2.
Anyway, If you listen to mainstream Hindi media , the projections are totally orthogonal.
BJP & Congress has done their won exit polls.
Congress Exit Poll:
Congress+ 168 BJP+ 176
BJP Exit Poll
Congress+ 170 BJP+ 220
Even Congress’s own exit poll has given lead to BJP.
Orissa BJP is doing very well in Lok Sabha elections, Congress Exit Poll gives 5, BJP exit Poll gives 7 seats.
http://aajtak.intoday.in/index.php?option=com_content&task=view§ionid=28&id=12182&Itemid=1
http://aajtak.intoday.in/index.php?option=com_content&task=view§ionid=28&secid=168&id=12183&Itemid=1
May 13th, 2009 at 10:38 PM
Chakresh, thatz the biggest Joke as They want Third front Parties NOT to desert The so called Third front as of date.
And Manoj, congress would fall below 100.
Congress’s tally is falling below 100 this time.
May 13th, 2009 at 6:59 PM
News X Exit Poll
BJP will be SLP.
BJP – 155
Cong – 135
May 13th, 2009 at 6:44 PM
exit polls by some TV channels still showing UPA ahead
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Congress-projected-ahead-in-exit-polls/articleshow/4525742.cms
May 13th, 2009 at 11:49 AM
Here’s a lighter take on elections
http://mindry.in/blog
May 13th, 2009 at 11:45 AM
Eventhough I have a feeling that BJP will be the single largest party..
2004 results are still haubting me
May 13th, 2009 at 10:57 AM
Hmm.. There is a wave in favour of NDA .Clearly shows that media is desperately trying to pep up the prospects of Congress. 16th May will show them who’s boss
May 13th, 2009 at 8:14 AM
Hope Vinod Mehta and co have to eat their words on May 16.
May 13th, 2009 at 8:13 AM
There has been one more mid poll projection from Outlook.
UPA 201 (165), NDA 175 (136), TF – 93, Others – 74