by Chakresh Mishra
Apr 21, 2009Promise of Reason Blog Pre-poll Prediction 2009 After Phase 1: NDA 212, UPA 175
See some seatwise detailed analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
Comments are invited, and don’t forget to share it with your friends.
August 31st, 2009 at 3:54 AM
Great blog you got here…keep up the good work.
May 12th, 2009 at 11:04 PM
The prophecy of POR is coming true.
It has been said So it shall be …
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/NDA-will-win-225-Lok-Sabha-seats-says-TRS-chief-/articleshow/4521564.cms
NDA will win 225 Lok Sabha seats, says TRS chief
HYDERABAD: Telangana Rasthra Samiti (TRS) president K Chandrasekhar Rao, who sprang a surprise by announcing support for NDA, on Tuesday
expressed confidence that the alliance would win at least 225 Lok Sabha seats on its own.
“It is clear that the UPA would not get more than 160 seats. On the other hand, the NDA will get 225 on its own,” he said.
NDA parties would do well at the cost of their opponents in states like Maharashtra and Bihar, said Rao, who called on senior BJP leader M Venkaiah Naidu in New Delhi
.
Rao, who sided with the Third Front and fought the elections in Andhra Pradesh in alliance with the Left parties and TDP, dealt a blow to the Third Front by declaring support for NDA at a rally organized by the coalition on May 10 in Ludhiana.
“We will not only support NDA with an open heart but also rope in others to support it,” Rao told the rally.
Naidu hoped that more parties opposed to the Congress would join the BJP-led grouping.
Earlier in the day, he told reporters in Hyderabad that TRS’ decision would strengthen the NDA.
May 12th, 2009 at 10:19 AM
This analysis, which was brought out on April 21,2009 is now proving to be an Oracle. NDA seems like it is fast moving to the 225 mark. With AIDMK/BSP/TDP/BJD supporting it, NDA is well on its way to form the government.
Watch out for the RIVER INTEGRATION PLAN of the NDA – this is going to be the most talked about and progressive development in this sub-continent. With water reaching villages, the next step would be advanced irrigation systems, controlled environment agriculture and other processes that can change the very face of rural INDIA.
Let us all PRAY that NDA comes to power. Forget the ‘Secular’ Frauds – when we become a wealthy country, all religions will learn to live with harmony. There is no religion more tolerant than Hinduism on the face of this PLANET.
May 11th, 2009 at 2:11 PM
Hi,
who makes the govt.will be immaaterial by Noon of 16th of May’09.But do u all the intellectual people think over the main issue, that if our political system has been successful in achieving what it was supposed to?Don’t u feel that the bigger chunk of our pliticians at present r dishonest as well as ANTI-NATIONAL?If we actually feel so,why not start a healthy discussion over this sothat one day this discussion may be taken to the grass route level &let the rural public may also think over this issue.After the formation of the Govt.,may be the riht time for it.
May 8th, 2009 at 11:02 AM
After 4th face its clear that bjp comes in over india a biggest leading party and party got 180-200(nda298) seats and after result many third front’s parties and independent candidate will join nda and so its clear that next is bjp(nda)and i will be sure that many states bjp won all seats and l.k. advaniji is our next pm.
May 6th, 2009 at 6:04 AM
Chakreshji … POR analysis is turning out to b true and LIAR media is getting exposed…
Polls head for photo-finish as BJP plays catch-up
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/LS-p … 488548.cms
6 May 2009, 0012 hrs IST, TNN
The race for emerging as the single largest party and the largest pre-poll alliance in the Lok Sabha election has become really tight. Polling is
yet to be held in 171 seats, although campaigning is over in all but 86 seats. And as parties go into the final stretch of the race, it looks like it will be a photo-finish.
It also seems quite clear now that whichever party or formation emerges as the biggest bloc, it will still have to rope in many more partners after the election in order to form a stable government. By themselves, the two top groups – UPA and NDA – are certain to fall well short of the majority mark of 272.
TOI’s political bureaus in 14 different cities and its network of correspondents have been tracking the poll’s progress to bring you their best estimates of the likely results. We have done two rounds and here’s the third. When we began, it looked like Congress was well ahead of BJP and the UPA was more than 20 seats ahead of the NDA. No longer.
The Congress, according to our estimate, now looks like ending up with 152 seats and the UPA with 195. The BJP, we feel, is likely to get 145 seats and its allies another 42, taking the NDA’s tally to 187. In other words, the gap between the two pre-poll alliances seems no more than 8 seats, and as these are nothing more than estimates, it’s really tough to say which way the electoral see-saw will eventually tilt.
The bigger message that’s emerging from this scenario is that the leading parties as well as alliances could be separated by less than 10 seats. This would obviously mean that the Left and “Others” could end up deciding who forms the next government.
The current estimates differ from the earlier one in several states. Among the most significant differences is that in Uttar Pradesh – we now feel both the Congress and the BJP might do better than earlier anticipated. Between them and the BJP’s ally, Ajit Singh’s RLD, they could win 30 of the state’s 80 seats. The rest, we believe, will be split 28-22 between the BSP and the SP.
We also believe that in the two southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, the Congress may suffer a greater setback than we had earlier estimated. The TDP-led “grand alliance” appears to have done better than expected, particularly in the Telengana region, while Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam has done some damage to Congress in the coastal areas.
In Tamil Nadu, which is to poll in the last phase on May 13, the momentum appears to be clearly shifting towards the AIADMK-led alliance and not just because of the Sri Lankan issue. With more than a week still to go, if the trend continues, the final tally may be even lower for the UPA.
In Bihar, while the JD(U)-led NDA seems to have performed spectacularly well, as we had projected, the RJD-LJP alliance may have done even worse than we initially thought, while the Congress may end up winning just about three seats.
Offsetting the declining estimates for the Congress and UPA in AP and Tamil Nadu, our current estimates in Orissa and Punjab are that the Congress could have gained some momentum. In Maharashtra, on the other hand, it is the BJP-Sena alliance that we now believe is still holding a slender lead over the Congress-NCP combine.
May 5th, 2009 at 11:35 PM
Why our Election Commission can’t see the direct violation of poll code of conduct?? this is the getting done by ruling party repeatedly…
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Forces-disability-family-pension-hiked/articleshow/4487562.cms
May 5th, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Maidros,
Sorry, I got ur name wrong in the last post. Once again my appreciations for ur brilliant analysis of Rajasthan, Assam, Bihar.
May 5th, 2009 at 2:02 PM
Maridos,
Ur analysis on Rajasthan is bang on. Are you a Journalist by profession???
Ur analysis of Assam and Bihar was also bang on.
May 5th, 2009 at 11:10 AM
Dear manojk
It is only drawing room columnist like Pankaj vohra feel that LS elwctions are being fought in an issueless vaccum.
Apart from a no. of regional, sub-regional and costituency level local micro issues like; Sri Lankan Tamil crisis, civic amenities: water-electricity-roads, school fee hike, implementation of pay commission, law and order, state govt. performance, caste-community equations and candidate’s – image, relations, record, criminal background if any, playing their due role.
There are national level issues which are definitely working.
The one at the top of them all is
PRICE INFLATION
People across the country are feeling the burnt and are highly criticising of UPA Govt’s failure to control price of neccesities like food items.
and Govt’s claims of near 0 inflation is further rubbing salt on their injuries.
Then unemployment due to economic recession, pay-cuts and business losses is another important issue.
Need for a stable Govt. Significant no. of people are not committed to any one party, are floating vote and will opt for a combination of party which will look near to form govt.
Definitely fancy drawing room discussion topics are non-issue and prove to be a non drawer at the hustings; like
Nuclear Power Deal
much hyped Manmohan Singh so-called corruption free image
Sonia-Rahul-Priyanka Gandhi family pseudo-charm
False Bharat Nirman campaign
National security and
Terrorism (see Mumbai, which faced worst terrorist attacks not more than six months back, witnessed abysmally low voting, meagre 40%)
May 4th, 2009 at 6:10 PM
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=HomePage&id=2700cead-3538-42d9-abdd-145933950a0d&Headline=We+could+be+in+for+a+short+govt
With barely a few days left for the fourth phase of elections to be held, there do not seem to be any clear winners in the 15th Lok Sabha polls. This is the most issueless election ever and both the Congress and the BJP have not been able to set any agenda. Both seem to be contesting , as others are doing, in a political vaccum. This explains why regional parties have already started flexing their muscles and are certainly going to play a major part in the formation of the next government.
The BJP, which, at one time, found it difficult to cross the three-figure mark, has done reasonably well in the first three phases and is certainly past the century mark. Many analysts also believe that at the end of the third stage it could even lead the pack. But it is the fourth phase, which is crucial for the Congress. If it is able to win or retain seats already in its kitty, it should have no problem in emerging as the single largest party.
The number one slot has become important since whoever gets the maximum seats will have more options open to it than the others. For instance, the party that comes out on top will certainly be in a position to be the first to be invited to form the government. The party shall always have the option of either sitting in the opposition knowing well that the stability of the next government may always be in doubt. The largest party similarly may also determine which regional leader or party should lead the government if it decides to support the government from outside.
The likely scenario emerging after three phases also has given ample indication that it will be increasingly difficult for either Dr Manmohan Singh or Mr L.K.Advani to lead the next government. Though nothing can be said with finality in politics, things seem to be moving in this direction.
The BJP is apparently the first party to acknowledge the difficulties in Advani becoming the next Prime Minister. The suggestion by Arun Shourie, Arun Jaitley and Yashwant Sinha that Narendra Modi could be a possible PM nominee in the post- Advani set-up is not without significance. The suggestion shows the anxiety of these leaders over the fate of the BJP and Advani in the post-poll scenario. It also indicates that the uncertainty over the BJP assuming the leading role has given way to a power struggle within the saffron brigade.
Sushma Swaraj, another leading BJP leader was the first to criticise her own colleagues for bringing up Modi’s name while the contest was still on. She cited Hindu scriptures and traditions and said that sons do not participate in Rasam Pagri when the father is still around. She, in effect, lashed out at the supporters of Modi for the top position. Even Venkaiah Naidu, whose own disillusionment with the way things are happening within the BJP, has increasingly distanced himself from any suggestions regarding Modi being made the top BJP boss. Rajnath Singh whose seat is being hotly contested also chose not to give any credence to the Modi brigade.
What is happening in the BJP is also the result of the reshuffle within the RSS where Mohan Bhagwat, a stickler for ideology, has taken over. He is allergic to Advani and some of those who are today trying to prop up Modi. His opinion about Modi may be favorable but he certainly wants to bring about a change within the BJP with some others in mind. He has been able to contain the ABVP lobby within the RSS and is now set to assert himself in the post-poll scenario. It is on his instructions that the RSS cadres are working hard for the BJP nominees even in constituencies like East Delhi where the Congress appears to be in a strong position till date.
The Congress is banking on the fourth and fifth phase to give it the number one slot. But it is also equally worried about the final result. Poor poll management has jeopardised the party’s chances in many constituencies. But, despite that, it hopes to cross or equal its 2004 score of 145 seats. The party has not changed its position regarding the prime ministerial candidate as yet. But post-poll compulsions may compel it to adopt a different strategy.
The Congress managers know that if the Congress and the BJP add up to over 272, the halfway mark, then no government can be formed at the Centre without the participation or support of either of the two parties regardless of the understanding amongst regional players.
The game is wide open as of now and in this lacklustre and issueless election, the outcome may be full of surprises for the big two if they are unable to assess the ground realities and act accordingly. The 15th Lok Sabha will be short-lived unless there is a convergence of interests among some regional parties.
Between us.
May 3rd, 2009 at 10:24 AM
wait till may 16th sirish
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:09 PM
Updated Rajasthan Poll predictions:
Read this post in conjunction with my original predictions. I have updated only those which have changed. Most predictions remain the same.
Ganganagar:
Toss up. Either may get it and the victory margin will be small. The Congress may have a very slight advantage, but it is hard to say.
Bikaner:
Slight advantage BJP. If they play their cards right, they should be able to win here.
Churu:
Steady Advantage BJP. The Congress has done the BJP a favour and fielded a Muslim in the Jat stronghold. Unless the Congress does something exceptional, or the BJP something drastically stupid, the BJP will keep this seat.
Jhunjhunu:
The BJP has fielded Dasharath Singh Shekhawat, but he is not really a match for Sheesh Ram Ola.
Strong advantage Congress. Unless there is a miracle from heaven or the Congress does something extraordinarily stupid, they will win this seat.
Sikar:
The BJP MP, Subhash Meharia, a Jat, is quite popular in his constituency. While there is a bit of anti-incumbency against him, he should be able contend against it fairly effectively. The Congress has fielded Mahadev Singh Khandela. Mahadev Singh is a newcomer and an outsider, and is not the old warhorse that Subhas Meharia is. What has torn the contest here open is the entry of Amra Ram of the CPI(M) – a sitting MLA in one of the assembly segments. Amra Ram is not a newcomer and has been contesting elections from this constituency from 1996 (he has never won). However, he can effectively ruin the chances of the Congress since he shares the same vote bank as the Congress. If Subhas Meharia wins, he should send a garland to Amra Ram.
Toss up. Impossible to predict.
Jaipur Rural:
The Congress has fielded Lal Chand Kataria, who had been defeated by the BJP candidate, Rao Rajendra Singh, in the just concluded Assembly elections. Rao Rajendra Singh is popular on his own and interestingly, the first choice of the Congress, Maharani Divya Singh, refused to contest from this constituency. Therefore, the choice fell on the just defeated Lal Chand Kataria. The BJP should have an easy time winning this constituency
Steady advantage BJP. They should win here without difficulty.
Jaipur:
Strong advantage BJP. They should win here without too much trouble.
Alwar:
The Congress candidate, Jitender Singh’s flip-flops (he agreed to contest, withdrew, and then agreed to contest again) have demoralised the Congress cadre. The BJP holds the trumps here.
Steady advantage BJP. They need to consolidate their hold here and work on the upper castes and the OBCs, who will determine the fate of the party.
Bharatpur:
Steady advantage BJP. They should win here, if they don’t do anything stupid.
Karauli-Dhaulpur:
The Congress has fielded Khilari Lal Bairwa against Dr. Manoj Rajoriya of the BJP. Neither of them are very strong by themselves. BJP holds a slight advantage here.
Dausa:
A four cornered battle. Three Meenas (Laxman Meena of the Congress, Ram Kishore Meena of the BJP and Kirori Lal Meena) and one Gujjar-Muslim (Qamar Chechi). If the Muslims and Gujjars polarise behind Chechi, he might just win the elections (both Muslims and Gujjars are in substantial numbers). Meena votes will get divided between Congress, Kirori Lal and even Ram Kishore to an extent. Brahmins (the other strong community in the area) will count for a lot in this case. It is likely that Brahmins will vote the BJP in large part, but Brahmins alone, without the Gujjars and/or Meenas are not sufficient to push the BJP candidate through. All depends on how Gujjars vote.
Toss up. Impossible to predict.
Sawai Madhopur:
The BJP has fielded Col. Kirori Singh Bhainsla against Namo Narayan Meena of the Congress. If ever there was an open declaration of what side the BJP is taking in the Gujjar-Meena tussle, this is it. By fielding Col. Bhainsla, the BJP is signalling that it is ready to support the Gujjars. The re-entry of Prahlad Gunjal to the BJP is another sign that the BJP is going all out to mend fences with the Gujjars, and from all accounts, it is working at least to a good extent.
The fielding of Col. Bhainsla is not important in itself. After all, even with the support of the Gujjars and other traditional BJP voting classes, Col. Bhainsla still faces an uphill task against Namo Narayan. The fielding of Col. Bhainsla is important for its significance to Gujjars.
In this seat, the Congress still holds better cards. Steady advantage Congress.
Ajmer:
Toss up. Sachin Pilot vs Kiran Maheshwari. Impossible to predict. This will be a very close battle. This is also a test case about how much the BJP has been successful in wooing the Gujjars. As of now, in Ajmre, neither side holds any real advantage.
Nagaur:
Toss up. Neither side holds any real advantages over the other. Also, it remains to be seen if the BSP can make a come back and eat into the votebank of either party.
Pali:
Steady advantage BJP. If they manage their campaign well, they will win from the constituency.
Jodhpur:
While the BJP held a small advantage at the beginning the campaigning, the entry of Maharaja Gaj Singh (Maharaja of Jodhpur) on the side of his sister, Chandresh Kumari (the Congress Candidate), has queered the pitch for the BJP. It all depends on how much Gaj Singh can persuade the Rajputs (the largest community) to vote the Congress. The Muslims will vote the Congress, while the Jats and the Bishnois will vote Jaswant Singh Bishnoi (the BJP candidate). Jaswant Singh Bishnoi is a heavyweight himself, but the fight is too close to call.
Toss up. Impossible to predict.
Barmer:
Steady advantage Congress. Unless Manvendra Singh (Jaswant Singh’s son) does something special, the seat is going to return to the Congress.
Jalore:
Triangular contest with the entry of Buta Singh. Actually, his appearance queers the pitch for the Congress, and he may end up taking this backward class votes. However, the Congress is not a pushover, and it is hard to predict things now.
Toss up. Impossible to predict.
Udaipur:
Steady Advantage Congress. The BJP may find this one tough to hold on to.
Banswara:
Strong advantage Congress. The BJP will need a miracle to win this one.
Chittaurgarh:
Steady advantage Congress. The BJP will need to work hard to win here.
Rajsamand:
Steady advantage BJP. This is probably the safest seat for the BJP, alongside Jaipur. The BJP should win here, barring unforeseen occurrances.
Bhilwara:
Slight advantage BJP. They need to work very carefully not to fritter it away and make sure that they work unitedly. If they do it, there is no reason why Mr. Singh should not get a third term.
Kota:
The Congress has fielded Ijaraj Singh, the former Maharaja of Kota, against Shyam Sundar Sharma of the BJP. While Ijaraj is a seasoned campaigner, Shyam Sundar Sharma is not exactly experienced. His newness might tell against him. Also, Ijaraj Singh has his own vote apart from the Congress vote. He holds a slight advantage here.
Slight advantage Congress.
Jhalawar-Baran:
Marginal advantage BJP. But really, they need to get their own machinery up and running or they will be out of the race.
Strong advantage BJP: Jaipur
Steady advantage BJP: Churu, Jaipur Rural, Alwar, Bharatpur, Pali, Rajsamand
Slight advantage BJP: Karauli-Dhaulpur, Bhilwara, Jhalawar-Baran
Toss up: Sikar, Dausa, Ajmer, Nagaur, Jodhpur, Jalore
Slight advantage Congress: Ganganagar, Kota
Steady advantage Congress: Sawai Madhopur, Barmer, Udaipur, Chittaurgarh
Strong advantage Congress: Jhunjhunu, Banswara
Advantage BJP – 11
Advantage Congress – 8
Toss up – 6
Assuming that the BJP gets a 33% strike rate in the toss up seats, the BJP should get 13, and the Congress 12.
May 2nd, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Third phase confusion
The gradually shrinking turnout figures–with a direct correlation to the rising mercury–is making it very difficult to say anything concrete about the outcome in terms of seats.
Moreover, in this phase there appears to be a sharp mismatch between those who have gathered quantitative data and those who rely on more conventional journalistic methods.
Where there is a conflict of conclusions I have given both views:
In Madhya Pradesh there is no question that the BJP has won a majority of seats. The exit pollster says it is a conclusive victory and that the BJP tally will improve over 2009. Some party activists whose views are generally reliable aren’t that optimistic. They see a definite slippage in the Malwa region and final tally of BJP 20 and Congress 9.
The same confusion prevails as far as Karnataka is concerned. The pollsters who rely on actual exit polls say that it is a conclusive BJP victory verging on a clean sweep. Journalists who were there on polling day say that heavy voting by Muslims and Christians will see a BJP defeat in the Mangalore belt (a similar trend was reported earlier from Bangalore), This fear is shared by some senior BJP leaders too. However, the pollsters are adamant that the Congress performance has been dismal.
There is relatively less confusion in Uttar Pradesh. There is a consensus that Congress has done very well in Phase 3 and may win seats it has not won since 1984. It has received silent but en masse Muslim support in constituencies such as Lucknow and it has picked up Dalit and upper-caste votes too. However, it is unlikely that this will translate into victories in more than 2 to 3 seats in this phase since the party proceeds from a very low base. The BJP on the other hand may pick up anything between 3 and 5 seats in this phase. Its popular vote is thought to be fractionally below that of the BSP and SP. Like in Phase 2 the SP may be the big loser (although by way of caution let me add that a similar prognosis turned out to be unfounded in both 1999 and 2004). The BSP is picking up seats steadily but the overall tally is nowhere commensurate with what Mayawati won in 2007.
Apart from NDTV which is forecating a decisive 30-18 win for the Congress-NCP, other pollsters are predicting exactly the opposite result. In the 10 seats of Phase 3, the most generous tally for the Congress is 5 seats. The overall impression is one of a 50:50 divide with the BJP-SS having an advantage in terms of popular votes.
The direction of the overall Gujarat result isn’t in any doubt. Pollsters are predicting anything between 19 and 21 seats for the BJP. The only cautionary note is that there is only a 3-4 per cent difference in the popular vote of the BJP and Congress.
There are two views on the 14 seats of West Bengal that polled in Phase 3. The pollsters are suggesting a decisive Left win with the Cong-TMC picking up at best 4 seats. I have not heard alternative suggestions.
The belief that Congress may not be the largest party on May 16 is gaining ground. In an uncertain situation there are the usual whispers of IB assessments which put Congress below 140. The political trouble shooter of a very large industrial house indicated that the present trends indicated a final tally of BJP 165 and Congress 130. Much is being made of Rahul Gandhi’s “off the record” briefing to political editors on Friday morning that he wasn’t bothered about what happens in the next 15 days but in how politics shapes up in 30 years time. There is also a buzz about Priyanka’s interview in Outlook suggesting a very close contest. Some idiotic BJP-types are taking these bush telegraph signals to heart and dreaming about sarkari appointments. I would unhesitatingly say that they are fools because if the Congress does well in Rajathan, Punjab and Haryana in the next two phases, the whole game could change.
May 2nd, 2009 at 2:48 PM
Chakresh ji
THANX A LOT!!!!
Dear All –
Though my real name is Shiladitya Bose, I would be comfortable with my nickname Raja
Pl post your inputs, analysis so that I can also update myself
May 2nd, 2009 at 2:16 PM
@Raja
Done
http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
@everybody else
now all of us can fire our guns at him in a more organized manner
May 2nd, 2009 at 1:47 PM
Dear Raj
BJP workers got overconfident after 2 phases resuling in some setbacks in Gujarat as well as in Coastal belts of Karnataka. Generally, media reports, views from public do not take into a/c tacit understandings at the ground level and in turn tends to skew the results. There is such understanding between JD(S) and INC in 11 seats in Karnataka, which would offset the gains after assembly polls in 2008. On top of that there is the Church attacks, pub attacks, which has led to strategic voting of minorities.
In Gujarat, decision to give importance of caste over developement was not expected from Narendra Modi. By giving tickets to candidates with criminal background, some of his admirers feel let down. BJP had taken its lanslide victory in the State for granted before casting of ballots.
This time, major losses for INC would be from the states of AP, TN, Assam, Jharkhand, Haryana, UP (35-38 seats); whereas it would suffer minor losses in Himachal, Union Territories, Maharsahtra, Bihar (8-10 seats). This would be offset by big gains in Kerela, Rajasthan, Punjab, Orissa (37-40 seats) and minor gains in MP, Chhatisgarh, NE states, Uttarakhand (3-6 seats), where NDA had reached saturation point in 2004.
Hence if INC manages to retain its 2004 tally in the states of Karnataka (8 seats) & Gujarat (12 seats), it would ensure that the overall loss of the Grand Old party would be around 5 seats.
The biggest advantage of INC is that it has still a wider reach in the country than BJP. Nowadays, it is the anti incumbency against the local government, which mostly decide the voting pattern. BJP has not been able to make much headway on its own in large states like AP, Kerela, Orissa, TN, WB where INC is still a force to reckon with. In 1996-98, BJP was able to offset this advantage of INC by making huge gains in UP. However INC still got around 140 seats in these elections.
In 1999, 3 factors were at work against INC; a) Vajpayee wave – Kargil war, b) 22 party rainbow NDA alliance and c) INC split (with NCP). This ensured the grand old party register its worst ever performance winning only 113 seats.
In 1999, had the INC-NCP split not occured, then the tally in Maharashtra would have been :
INC/NCP – 41 (52% votes)
SHS/BJP – 7 (38% votes)
This would have ensured INC reach around 144 seats in the 13th Lok sabha.
May 2nd, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Yes Dear Raja, I too feel, Your Analysis has to be A New Post.
You seem to be more Cautious then most of us in the cyberworld are.
But, I dont understand, how congress can retain it’s 2004 tally.
In 2004, congress and commies had an overt/covert alliance in All states except kerala. And that was the only reason, they did so well(i.e., cross the 100 Mark). This time, there is Widespread Anger against congress. sonia-raul couldnt cheer crowd and their campaign is lacklustured. even sonia-raul are aware that congress would be routed
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:49 AM
Toss up seats are Nanded, Ahmed Nagar, Sangli (independent being supported by NDA), Mumbai South and Mumbai North central
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:47 AM
I disgaree that Raighad, Maval and Ratnagiri are toss up seats for the following reasons
a) In the three seats UPA had 2 muslim candidates and one son of Narayan Rane
b) Konkan has always been a strong hold of sena ( Even without Rane)
c) SHS not only had the support of BJP but also the support of PWPI. Last time in these constituencies PWPI has put up candidates and they had about 30% vote share which this time they will transfer to SHS.