See some seatwise detailed analysis
By Promise of Reason (covered Kerala, Chhattisgarh till now)
By readers of Promise of Reason (covered Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra, Assam, Rajasthan, UP till now)
Comments are invited, and don’t forget to share it with your friends.
Take a look at these related posts:
- India Election 2009 pre-poll prediction : Introduction
- Pre-poll prediction after phase 3 by Shiladitya Bose
- Indian Politics Forums by Promise of Reason uncovered
- Countdown to general election 2009 – conclusion – a hung parliament
- Countdown to general election 2009 – west india – a BJP sweep
April 21, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Hi,
Your analysis shows the wave in favor of NDA may be you are off in your nos in the seat predictions in some states as given below:
Punjab – you have given at least 2 to 3 seats more to congress. Esp after Jagdish tytler/sajjan kumar episode congress might not get what they were expecting at one time which is about 6 seats. Max they can get 3 to 4 seats this time in Punjab.
Haryana – You have given way too many seats to congress(7). I think it will be reverse, congress would get 3, BJP+INLD will get around 7 seats.
Bihar – Looking at the comments from former UPA members v/s congress(Lalu, paswan v/s congress) my prediction is that NDA will sweep bihar leaving just 4 to 5 seats for UPA.
UP – Darkhouse and will spring a major suprise this election. You are right in terms of capturing wave in terms of NDA(21 seats). I wont be surprised if NDA(BJP, RLD, JDu) bags around 35 seats and becoming single largest in UP.
Orissa – BJP will sure shot get 3 seats and my prediction would be they would get additional couple of seats and extend to 5 or 6 seats.
West bengal – You have given way too many seats to Mamta+congress combine. No doubt they have a wave in their favour but my feeling is they may not able to cross all time high of 18 or 20 seats. commie will still get abt 20 odd seats minm.
April 21, 2009 at 4:58 PM
Good Analysis..I However still feel that JDS will win minmum of 3 seats from Karnataka.COngress may end up winning 5 only…
And also in North east Not only naga front will win but also Meghalaya NCP…
It wouldnt be wonder if NCP and Trinamool change their side once NDA reaches higher number…
And I still hope for better results from Maharashtra(atleast 5 more seats),Orissa(atleast 2 more seats),Andhra(atleast one more seat),Few more from North belt of delhi,Punjab,Haryana ,HP and uttarakhand so that NDA reaches 230
I also have a feeling that Lefts will get more in West Bengal..
And certain facts are in favour of NDA
1)If lefts go with UPA,Trinamool will come out
April 21, 2009 at 5:23 PM
I feel what ever you have mentioned is minimum tally
April 21, 2009 at 5:25 PM
Add
10 more seats in UP
7 more seats Rajasthan
7 more seats AP
April 21, 2009 at 6:30 PM
Hi
its really a good projection and look more realistic and NDA will improve only .
AP – 4-7 seats
Bihar – BJP will improve and JDU is more or less OK.
Jharkhand – JDU may get one seats and JVP of Babulal Marandi will one seats.
UP- its difficult to predict and will change for BJP only and Maya may not ablr to get 30 seats.
Orisaa- Its very difficult to predict but BJP will get more than 3
Rajsthan – its very difficult to predict right now and equation will once Kirorimal Meena issuse is settle as Both BJP and Congress is woeing him and outcome any change.
Rest its look a very pragmatic and unbaised projection.
thanks
anil
April 21, 2009 at 7:11 PM
In Tamilnadu, cong will get one seat only, also DMK may get 3-4 seats, DMDK-0 (no doubt), BJP will win in Kanyakumari constituency my prediction is
AIADMK allies : 33-35,
DMK allies: 3-5,
BJP-1,
Puducherry -
AIADMK -1
April 21, 2009 at 7:36 PM
BJP WILL WIN MORE 1 IN KERALA !
April 21, 2009 at 7:52 PM
I think overall it looks pretty neutral.. though here and there BJP might win/lose 1-2 seats in different states.
Good Analysis…
But, I am not sure if PRP & BSP is Pro NDA. I feel PRP will be pro UPA at center at least. Also, BSP might just abstain from voting.. supporting none…
Nonetheless, good analysis, final figure of NDA & UPA should be close to this…
April 21, 2009 at 8:12 PM
I agree. BSP will not support anyone and not at least NDA> They are trying to woo Muslim and hence we shouldn’t count BSP here. The parties who are likely to suppoet NDA are AIDMK, AITC and TRS. And there will always be independent and others comprising 10-15 which can wing NDA way… We should be also prepared for an unexpected loss for BJP in either karnataka or Gujarat to the tune of 5 seats at least combinedly. However, I can see that being compensated by other states such as UP and Andhra where BJP can bag additional seats
April 21, 2009 at 8:20 PM
Once BJP is able to form gov then BJP will buy MP from BSP, JDS, SP,Lalu,LJP etc to form strong gov.
April 21, 2009 at 8:20 PM
Hi,
If this is true, the LKA is the PM, but expecting BSP would be too much that too after Varuns episode as there would be heavy allegations that BSP and BJP were hand in glove
April 21, 2009 at 9:46 PM
Yes.I agree this is the systematic analysis and except for few minor variations here and there,this is going to be the final tally.It is almost certain that the situation is favourable to NDA.BJP is likely to gain some more seats from A.P.Now UPA is almost disintegrated with open fight between Lalu & Congress for the pat two days and unreliable ally in NCP, voters will definitely make thier choice in favour of NDA in next phases.
April 21, 2009 at 10:41 PM
I think this is a bit too biased toward NDA
1) In Chhattisgrah, I am pretty sure INC will gain a couple from 2004
2) In Gujarat, INC might get a couple more
3) In Karnataka, INC and especially JDS should get one or two more
4) For both Rajastan and Madhya Pradesh, INC should be 2-3 more.
5) In UP the INC should be around 10 given reports of INC upswing there.
6) In West Bengal, I am pretty sure Left front will not do that badly. They should get at least 21.
7) Is there a typo in Northeast? Does not seem possible for the left to take 4 seats there. 2 in Tipura should be it.
April 21, 2009 at 11:30 PM
For BJP to form Govt, NDA needs to have a lead of 30 seats over UPA or BJP should be atleast 30 seats ahead of Congress.
Parties like TRS,MDMK,PMK, some northeast parties will always go with who ever is forming government at center.
I think the permutation/combination makes it impossible to predict who will form the govt, but one thing is clear it will be a loose fractured coalation and may not survive 5 years.
April 21, 2009 at 11:34 PM
Well…
CON party tally would go down in Maharastra, WB (11? no way), Haryana, TN (9 for UPA is too much. If they cross 5, they should be ecstatic). AP is really turning out their doom. (Based on what I hear 12 may be max. They are being clean out by TDP alliance. Some reportts even put it 5-6. In that case, Sonia Maino dynasty can go and have to live on billions they stashed away in Swiss accounts before Advani cleans them too).
April 21, 2009 at 11:40 PM
Power of Advani.. Even rabid anti-Indian, left wing radical news paper Hindu is also forced to admit that it is a good policy.
http://www.hindu.com/2009/04/21/stories/2009042156690800.htm
A major issue on the agenda
The recommendations of a task force appointed by the BJP’s senior leader L.K.Advani on the steps to be taken to bring back funds illegally stashed away in tax havens by resident Indians are timely. At the minimum, the suggestions should ignite a debate over a complex issue that has over the years defied a clear-cut analysis, leave alone workable solutions. Public perceptions have remained strong of domestic money being banked illegally in Switzerland and a number of other countries that observe strict banking secrecy. Among the alleged perpetrators are politicians, bureaucrats, criminals as well as businessmen engaged in mispricing of goods and services involved in otherwise genuine trade transactions. It was widely believed that the high level of personal taxation that prevailed in India for over four decades after Independence prompted many individuals and companies to stash their wealth abroad. But, as the task force has noted, a more benign tax regime does not seem to have reversed the trend. If anything, the flow has increased. Estimates of money stashed abroad vary from Rs.70 lakh crore to Rs.25 lakh crore. The wide range demonstrates the complexity in collating such data but even at the lower end the magnitude is huge. Ironically, the dismantling of exchange controls — for all practical purposes the rupee is convertible on the current account and even capital transfers are allowed up to $200,000 a year — has apparently not stopped domestic money from going out.
Tax avoidance at home might still remain the primary motive in parking money abroad. But increasingly, money laundering by terrorist and criminal organisations through tax havens and offshore centres has become an even greater cause for worry. It is this that has prompted strong initiatives from OECD countries to pierce the veil of secrecy surrounding banking practices in the tax havens for purposes of criminal and tax investigations. After the recent G20 summit, there is an agreement on compelling tax havens to adopt international codes of conduct and information sharing. It stands to reason that India should take advantage of the ongoing global initiative against tax havens. Only through coordinated multilateral effort can the abuse of banking secrecy be stopped. While some of the task force’s suggestions are unexceptionable, some others will be difficult to implement by any government. Bringing back the money stashed abroad will be an enormously time-consuming task but it needs to be attempted. Mr. Advani has done well to highlight a key challenge that should be addressed by the new government that is to take office.
April 22, 2009 at 1:34 AM
I think its a very realistic projection unlike some of the opinion polls that were in print media and TV. I however feel the following few changes.
Haryana : 2- 3 more for NDA as INC govt is the incumbent and it hasn’t done too well.
Delhi: BJP had done too badly in last Lok sabha elections and Delhi votes differently in Lok Sabha and assembly elections.
Karnataka, i feel its going to be Congress 5 and JD(s) 3
, father -son Gowda duo winning and JD(s) retaining Chamrajanagar- BJP is too weak here.
April 22, 2009 at 7:24 AM
Kudos for giving an impartial and quite realistic assessment. Overall the tally may be quite near what has been predicted although it may differ in a few states. I doubt if BJP will getthat many seats in Chattisgarh as also in Jharkhand. In Delhi the BJP may do better than the projection. As regards Tamil Nadu Mr. Thirumalavavan is sure to win on the VCK ticket in Chidambaram and the BJP can look forward to a victory in Knayakuumari and also has a good chance in Ramanathapuram with Thirunavvakarasar’s champaign gathering momentum.
BJP will do better than predicted in Uttarakhand and in Haryana.
Mamta may also swith sides if the Congress woos the left in the post poll scenario. Any way things are looking up for the NDA.
April 22, 2009 at 7:49 AM
Hi Jaichind, Your allegation that the projections here are biased towards NDA are illogical. You say Cong might get 2-3 more in Raj, 1-2 more in karnatka etc., and nobody is trying to be precise here, nobody can be.1-2 can go here and there. Error to that amount is allowed. We are just trying to get a trend here and then you say projections for WB are wrong…but the thing is if the above analysis gives more for Cong in WB, then how is it biased towards NDA??if it gives more for Left in NE, how is it biased towards NDA??
I feel this is a very honest assessment, one of the few realistic opinion polls that I have seen on web or print media. Goes very close to my prediction. But only thing is 18 for Cong in AP is a bit on the higher side.13/25 for BJP in Raj??did the situation change so much after assembly elections??!!I don’t know.
But one thing is if BJP doesn’t expand into TN(39) and AP(42), next election could be a washout for BJP as it might lose strength in many incumbent states like MP.
April 22, 2009 at 8:16 AM
In AP, BJP has chance in as many as 3 A Mimimum and upto 5 as Per Post Poll Analysts
April 22, 2009 at 9:39 AM
congress getting 3 Seats in TN?
NO Way.
Congress is about to draw Blank in TN and even in Pondicherry, they are recieving tremors to beat the combined opposition of AIADMK-PMK-MDMK-CPI(M) and CPI.
BJP would for sure Win The Kanniyakumari Seat
April 22, 2009 at 9:47 AM
In TamilNadu, DMK will Win Just two Parliamentary Seats. Viz, Central Chennai(A Traditional DMK Bastion) and Tituvallur(Reserved),This region has Lot of christian population and hence are DMK supporters.
Congress would Draw A Blank in TN and with great Diffculty in Puducherry.
My Prediction for TN and Puducherry :
BJP(NDA)—-1-3(Kanniyakumari, Sure Shot and Ramanthapuram,South Chennai—Potential BJP Seats)
DMK—-2(Aforementioned)
congress—-1(Puducherry)
AIADMK Combine ——34-35
Break -Up of AIADMK Front :
CPI(M)—2
CPI—-3
MDMK—-4
PMK —-6
AIADMK—19-20
April 22, 2009 at 9:48 AM
AIADMK and MDMK Would Anyway Join NDA Post Poll.
PMK Would NOT be Required and Will be Ditched for Ever
April 22, 2009 at 9:58 AM
Hari, I am Really Happy that Tirunavukarasar’s Campaigning is Picking up Momentum and Is Still Able to carry forward His Old Following and extend the same beyond Aranthangi.
RSS, Which has Good Presence in Muddukalathur and Ramanathaparam should Back Him Strongly.
He Himself being A Thevar and Karthik(I dont how much following he has for he lost deposit the previous time he contested),again A Thevar whose outfit NMK is in Alliance with BJP in TN would help The Thevar Vote gravitate towards BJP.
I have found through my Brother that Ila Ganesan too is Campaigning hard. BJP Should Win from This Elite Constituency in A Four Way Split.
BJP Can Poll Considerabale amount of Votes in Nilgiris(Res) and Should come atleast a Respectable Third and get around 15-20% of Popular Vote in This Constituency
As Per Latest Developments, Sarath Kumar’s Party could NOT Find A Candidate in Tenkasi(Res) and has decided to extend support to Krishnaswamy of Puthiya Tamizhagama and has taken a unilateral Decision in this regard.
BJP is now demandidn, the seat be given back to BJP if AISMK cannot find A Candidate from here.
April 22, 2009 at 10:47 AM
Good analysis. I still feel that UP is going to surprise in favour of the BJP. As I have written, the real T20 tournament is being played there.
April 22, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Raj,
The BJP has significant presence in and around Tenkasi. In fact the last local body polls the Hindu Munnani candidate came close a close second. Similarly even in the old Tiruchendur Lok sabha area in which Nadars are sizable in number the BJP has done well in the past. Some how they have not progressed beyond a point and during the last assembly came a cropper.
I was told that in a recent party workers meeting in Mylapore Mr. Ela Ganesan has said that their objective in South Chennai is to get better than Vijaykanth and they would be happy to get 35000 votes. What a tragedy that they dont even hope to get one lakh votes out of
the seven lakh that may is likely to be polled.
April 22, 2009 at 3:39 PM
ADMK will join UPA after polls because Jaylalitha will demand that Congress withdraw support to karunanidhi in state.
So Cong will withrdraw support to karunanidhi. His govt falls. Re-elections will be held. ADMK cong willcome back to power in TN assembly
And in the centre also ADMK will become ministers in Cong govt
April 22, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Jaya might wish that,But the problem is that TamilNadu people are fully against COngress rather than DMK over lanka issue..ANd hence if she joins with COngress,IT might be trouble for her.
Even if she joins UPA, DMK will definitely come out, which means 5 seats lesser accding to this survey.Even though Lefts are proUPA, Trinamool is oging to come out if left joins UPA..ANd now even Laloo out of UPA clearly indictaes UPA Govt formation is far from truth now
April 22, 2009 at 6:43 PM
Hi Simple,
That is why i want Karunanidhi should win some seats.But congress should not win. Karunanidhi and AIADMK gets equal no. of seats then situation will be in favour of BJP.
April 22, 2009 at 6:57 PM
Jaya’s startegy seems to be more to drive a wedge between Congress and the DMK. As of now the DMK and Congress (Sonia)have an understanding whereby the DMK will mew like a cat every now and then in support of the Tamils of Sri Lanka and the Congress will just ignore that in return the Congress will not ask for participation in the DMK Govt. which in effect is a Govt. living on outside support.
Jaya as everyone knows is a person who takes unilateral decisions and can just switch sides like all the TN parties. At this juncture she would fancy that if this DMK Govt. is removed then there may not be hope for a Karuna or his family led Govt. anymore. This however may be misplaced as the Lankan Tamil issue is slowly gathering centre stage as the DMK has realised how unpopular the Congress has become due to its inaction. Althoughthe DMK will have to take equal responsibility being a major player in the centre it has managed to escape the blame as most Lnakan tamil supporters among the common people are also traditional DMK voters.
The only way for the Congress to escape from this situation is to get the fleeing innocent tamils to speak against the LTTE and not against the Lankan Govt.
April 22, 2009 at 8:04 PM
If this is true, CON party might go down to < 10 (even 5-6 seats) in AP. That would be a death knell for the ITALIAN dynasty.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/171101/TDP-feels-its-way-back-to-power.html
TDP feels its way back to power
Omer Farooq | Kurnool
Andhra Pradesh is heading for a major political change as a silent TDP wave is sweeping across the regions of coastal Andhra and Rayala Seema, which are set to go to poll in the second phase on Thursday.
A 1,500-km journey from East Godavari to Kurnool, crisscrossing Godavari and Krisna Delta, Prakasham, Nellore, Chittoor, Ananjtapur and Kadapa, clearly showed that the TDP had recovered most of the ground it had lost in 2004. As more and more people said they would like to see TDP back in power, there was distinct possibility that Chandrababu Naidu will reclaim his throne.
The yearning for change is so strong in some districts that the situation there has completely changed since the last election. In districts where the TDP could hardly get a couple of Assembly seats, the Congress was now facing the threat of meeting the same fate.
Of the 140 Assembly seats that went to poll in the first phase, the TDP was contesting 131 seats (leaving nine to the CPI and CPM). It was clearly ahead on 68 seats and in a close fight in 22 other constituencies. The Congress, on the other hand, was leading only in 38 of the 140 seats. The PRP, expected to do well in the second phase, was also in for a big disappointment as it was ahead only in 11 of the 140 seats. Tirupati, where Chiranjeevi is contesting, is one of them.
The TDP-led Grand Alliance was ahead in 141 seats while facing a tough fight in 45 other seats. But there was every possibility of the Grand Alliance crossing the magic figure of 147, the halfway mark in the 294-member Assembly. The Congress appeared ahead in 52 seats in the first phase and 38 in the second phase, keeping its total well below 100.
The PRP was doing much worse. While people at large were hoping that the mega star’s party will win 40 seats in the Assembly, it was ahead in less than 20 seats. The eight-month-old party was likely to win only two Assembly seats in the first phase and leading on 10 seats in the second phase, taking the total to 12.
How badly the Congress is doing this time can be gauged from the fact that in most of the coastal district, where the TDP had been reduced to one or two seats in 2004, the Congress is finding itself in a similar situation now.
For instance, the TDP had won just one Assembly seat in Guntur in 2004 and now it seems ahead in 11 of the 17 seats. In Chittoor, the home district of TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu, the TDP could win only three seats five years ago but now it is leading in 10 seats. The story of Anantapur, a TDP stronghold, is the same. Here, of the 14 Assembly seats, the Congress is likely to win only four seats while the TDP is ahead on nine seats.
April 22, 2009 at 11:20 PM
here is some indication from jaya’s menifesto:
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/election2009/index.php?issueid=&id=37753&option=com_content&task=view§ionid=90&secid=95
she is having same issues at nationwise like tax slab,terrisiom,Ram mandir etc which is clear inclination towards BJP.but she made clear cut for getting maximum seats from TN, thatswhy looks like she didnt tie up with BJP, once get seats from there then she will be post poll ally of BJP.
I dont think UPA will able to make new govt as UPA is getting worsen.So jaya will not getting anything from con.
April 23, 2009 at 12:01 AM
I would like to know how the surveys was conducted and when….anyways nice job
April 23, 2009 at 2:39 PM
i think in UP bjp may get 15-20 seats as per the changing scenario.
April 23, 2009 at 5:22 PM
hey guys i am from western UP .i can tell you that on the following seats NDA will 100% win
baghpat(RLD) rld bastion
kairana(BJP)
amorha (RLD)
Ghaziabad (BJP)
mathura(RLD)
nagina(RLD)
April 23, 2009 at 6:00 PM
Another CON party seat going to NDA: Nagpur
Muttemwar complains of ‘conspiracy’ by Nagpur Cong MLAs
http://www.hindustantimes.com/Election09/storypage.aspx?ID=b23997d6-1e93-4a49-a4ad-d4572fc9ce77&Category=Chunk-HT-UI-Elections-SectionPage-TopStories&gid=
Congress leader and Union Minister Vilas Muttemwar, who are seeking a fourth consecutive, term from Nagpur Parliamentary constituency, complained to the high command that three sitting MLAs have “conspired” against the party interest during the first phase polls.
Muttemwar, who has dashed off a letter to Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee (MPCC) president Manikrao Thakre, has accused Maharashtra Textile Minister Anees Ahmad, Minister of State for Home Nitin Raut and former minister Satish Chaturvedi of “hatching a conspiracy” to defeat him.
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April 24, 2009 at 3:56 AM
BJP will be the SLP for sure. Crossing 175 mark looks quite possible too.
UP has the surprise package, as everybody says.
Bihar, Max 8 seats for all non-NDA not more
TN, I guess DMK will win 8+.
AP will almost be a white wash for Cong. I think 2 digits is impossible.
April 24, 2009 at 6:07 AM
AP – CON party is going down. may be 9-12. COuld be as low as 6. Remember me guys!
April 24, 2009 at 8:04 AM
Hi Manoj, Thatz A Welcome News!!!
I am Quite Happy That chiru’s party, The Ugly Rogue and A maino agent is doing Badly.
PRP — Paniki Rani Party(Meaning UseLess Party in Telugu)
April 24, 2009 at 9:48 AM
In AP, things might not be as bad in the second phase for the congress as in the first…in the Lok Sabha . There are a few things that have happened- it seems that the the Kapus who are Cheeranjivi’s base, have voted in the Godavari and other coastal areas tactically- wherever the PRP is strong, for the PRP candidate and wherever the Congress is strong for the Congress candidate. This is to prevent Khammas, who are the base of the TDP from coming to power…
also, there are reports of voting for the Congress in the LS and for PRP in the state assembly…the absence of a BJP grassroot has lead to BJP not getting a share of this different voting in the LS. So Congress definitely will not come below 10 seats in LS and might go up to 15 seats seats… if the above has happened in the first phase too, it will get around 20.
The TDP lost five years back not on a good note…so even if it comes back to power here, it will be not with as high a majority that YSR got in with…Congress had about 175 seats last time, so even a loss of 50- 60 seats (it might have already lost about 40 seats in the first phase) will stand them a chance of getting back to the state assembly…but that will also stand TDP an equally good chance of doing so…
April 24, 2009 at 1:01 PM
AP: Mahakutanni had swept Phase I, Phase II TDP and INC have shared honours in Phase II with INC doing slightly better. It appears TDP may form the government with TRS support and hence have to listen to TRS in supporting the central government.
Orissa: INC will win Majority in assembly.
UP: BSP has done well in Phase II
Maha: repeat of 2004
Bihar, Jharkhand: NDA has done better
karnataka: BJP improves from 2004 tally
MP, Assam: BJP sweeps
April 24, 2009 at 1:52 PM
hey guys can any body tell me the scenario of UP (seatwise). so that the picture could be more clear.
And as the facts are being analyzed this election is getting more and more in favor of NDA. and UPA seems to be lesser than the previous polls
April 24, 2009 at 3:34 PM
Fundamentals, in The First Phase, PRP is Non Existent except in North Coastal AP and in Telangana, congress is about to Face A Rout while prp would not be able to win more than 5 assembly seats
April 24, 2009 at 3:36 PM
Anonyms, Pollsters feel that MahaKutami has Actually Not Swept but has a clear Edge in Phase I.
The Grand Alliance would only Win about 70-75 Assembly Seats in The Telangana Region and only around 10 Lok Sabha Seats
April 24, 2009 at 4:28 PM
In Delhi BJP may get atleast 4 seats & in Orrissa also it will get minimum 6 seats & BJD – 6. I think BJP will get the following figures in Rajastan 16, Haryana 4 & Karnataka 24, AP 3, Uttar pradesh 25 on its one. Over all BJP will get 190 – 200 on its own. NDA will get around 250. The NDA will be close to magic mark (272).
April 24, 2009 at 4:38 PM
chandra,
Whatever tally given in Karnataka is more practical,Yes BJP’s tally can go upto 24 ..But 24 isnot practical
April 24, 2009 at 5:12 PM
Dear Chandra
I fully agree with you on NDA’s final tally; it will be definitely 240 around.
The most likely state figures for NDA will be
J&K 1
HP 3
Uttarakhand 4
Punjab + Chandigarh 10
Haryana 7
Delhi 5
UP 25
===NORTH INDIA 55
RAJASTHAN 15
GUJARAT + Daman Diu + Dadra Nagar Haveli 21
MP + Chattisgarh 34
Maharashtra + Goa 30
===WEST INDIA 100
Karanataka 20
Kerala + AP + Tamil Nadu + Pondicherry + A&N Islands + Lakshadweep 5
===SOUTH INDIA 25
ORISSA 5
BIHAR 30
JHARKHAND 10
ASSAM 10
West Bengal + Other NE states 5
===EAST INDIA 60
TOTAL INDIA= 55 + 100 + 25 + 60 = 240
This is the minimum figure for NDA (BJP + its pre-poll allies including, PA Sangma).
As, eventhough there are high possibilities for NDA win in few select around 20 seats of W Bengal, TN, Kerala, AP, NE states, Island UTs, but I had discounted them only 10 being pessimist.
Similarly in UP, NDA may take upto 30 also but I had taken 25 only.
There is quite likelihood NDA may go upto touching 250 mark.
In addition to that there is quite possibility for
AIADMK-MDMK-PMK 32 (Tamil Nadu)
TDP-TRS 18 (Andhra Pradesh)
Thus these potential post poll allies may win around 50 seats.
April 24, 2009 at 8:14 PM
Vikas Ji,in AP; BJP Will Win 5-7 Lok Sabha Seats Even According to The Most Anti BJP Press and Media.They have conceded to The Fact that BJP was undermined prior to
Phase-I are now admitting to This.
From TamilNadu, MDMK and AIADMK Are Welcome to Join NDA But NOT PMK.
I Think, We DONT Require PMK to form Government.
April 24, 2009 at 8:19 PM
Raj bhai
what is the problem of BJP and PMK, Why they can not come together, please through some light on that.
April 24, 2009 at 8:54 PM
Dear Chakresh,
, I partially agree. What he(Ambumani Ramdoss) did to director of AIIMS and their caste based politics is bad. But the sad reality is PMK is the only party which is sure to be part of next govt irrespective of who forms govt, unless some magic happen.
Raj doesn’t like PMK
PMK is actually very similar to BSP, only difference being now BSP is trying to expand its base through Social Engineering…
April 24, 2009 at 9:01 PM
It’s NOT Just me.
NoBody Likes PMK. Thatz A Party Without Ethics and Their Only Goal is to be in Cabinet and create problems.
Thanks to Rise in The Particpation of smaller parties in Coalation,parties like PMK have attained Fame, albeit for All Wrong Reasons.
April 24, 2009 at 9:21 PM
NDA and non-Congress parties sweep phase 2
Karnataka – BJP sweep, former cong chief minister Bangarappa beaten with stones by his own supporters.. 90% of seats polled going to BJP.
Maharashtra – massive turnout from lower middle class and middle class localities in support of BJP-SS, poor turn out from upper middle class (pseudo sickulars). Muslim vote is not consolidating against BJP-SS. Also congress is set to lose several seats as NCP is campaigning aggressively and encouraging cross voting to destroy cong. Cong already lost Nagpur.
AP – Cong rout.. perhaps the biggest shock to congress.. TDP is destroying congress due to massive incumbency factor.
Assam, MP, Bihar: NDA sweep.. over 90% seats to BJP & allies.
Eastern UP, Orissa: too fickle to predict due to triangular fights between SP-BSP-BJP in one and BJP-BJD-Cong in another.
Overall, the losses in AP and Maha are so significant they cannot be covered with gains in Orissa.
———————————-
Based on what voters saw in their polling booths.
Biggest shock to cong will be AP… its a congress rout.. TDP and TRS are already in discussions with BJP leaders – ready to ditch left and rejoin/support NDA.
BJP also benefitted heavily from cross voting of NCP to defeat congress in Maha.
Overall in UP, NDA is set to gain at least 10 more seats, at the minimum.. taking its tally to at least 20.
Earlier, I used to think BJP will get around 130 and Cong 175.. Now BJP will surely get above 165-180, cong may not even cross 130.
AP is going to be the biggest shock for cong.
April 24, 2009 at 9:59 PM
On the outlook it looks very much like a Cong rout in AP. But the Govt. Engineered manifold increase in Neo-Converts all over the state in this five years makes me really nervous.
April 25, 2009 at 2:34 AM
Guys!
Look at this news. Sheila BUTT is a CON party disciple and DYNASTY slave. She usually cleans Rahul, Priyanka and Sonia’s feet every day, prays them and writes articles supporting CON moronic party.
She is devastated on what she is finding on the ground. She was calling BJP all names. But now, she is suddenly subdued.
Read it below and HAVE FUN! She is crying that people are not mesmerized by Priyanka’s smile or Rahul/Sonia/Priyanka’s style.
http://election.rediff.com/column/2009/apr/24/loksabhapolls-by-default-the-bjp-gains-ground.htm
By default, the BJP gains ground
——————————————————-
As the second and largest phase of Lok Sabha polling ended on April 23, sealing the fate of 264 constituencies, one could see clearly that only two general secretaries — Arun Jaitley [Images] of the Bharatiya Janata Party [Images] and Prakash Karat [Images] of the Communist Party of India-Marxist — were smiling. Jaitley is trying to increase his party’s prospects while Karat is trying his ensure his place in the Delhi [Images] sun.
In the last month of political churning, the Congress has lost some confidence and the BJP has gained some.
The combined political weight of weak and strong regional forces of India is trying to shift the centre point of power away from the Congress. A day after the second phase of polling, a major headline is about Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar [Images] and Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav [Images] explaining the importance of the Left parties in forming the next government.
The race that began some eight weeks ago had two clear political challenges. One in its attempt to retain power, the Congress was trying to emerge as the single largest party. Two, the regional and Left parties ganged up against Congress and BJP to challenge both the mainstream parties’s ambitions. To the Third Front, the BJP looked weaker than the Congress when the whistle blew at the starting point.
Since the world is passing through an economic crisis, the Congress strategists justifiably felt that the electorate would like to go for stability and again opt for a government led by economist Manmohan Singh [Images]. In the last four years, till the attacks on Mumbai [Images], the failure in managing India’s internal security was perceived as the weakest point of the United Progressive Alliance government. But after the Mumbai attacks in November, the Congress played some deft politics vis-a-vis Pakistan to recover some lost ground.
Also, in the last five years, Dr Singh and Sonia Gandhi [Images] have not got embroiled in any kind of scam to give a handle to the Opposition. At the top level, the Congress party when compared to the BJP looked more cohesive. The infighting among the BJP leaders worried party cadres.
But as reports from the interiors of India started pouring in, the two popular perceptions changed.
One, Uttar Pradesh [Images] is not going into Mayawati’s [Images] lap as it was popularly perceived. Two, the Left parties may not be facing the total rout as its detractors were so sure of before the election in Kerala [Images] and West Bengal. These changes are making Karat and Jaitley smile.
Equally important game changers would be the assembly election results from Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, which will have a direct impact on the formation of the government in New Delhi.
If the BJP loses very badly in both states its game is almost over. But the more BJP gains, the Third Front gains as well, says D P Tripathi of the Nationalist Congress Party.
Tripathi’s argument is that even if the BJP gains in UP it doesn’t bother the NCP kind of parties because they just want to ensure that a National Democratic Alliance government is not formed.
But the BJP thinking is that if in both states, the electorate gives a hung verdict (which is likely) and the Congress does not get any advantage then the BJP scores the point at least in Orissa.
As Jaitley has been saying for some weeks that if the Biju Janata Dal and the Telugu Desam Party are compelled to take the BJP’s help to form the state governments in Bhubaneshwar and Hyderabad respectively, then they will gravitate towards the NDA. The BJP’s strategy may work in Orissa but not so much in AP where they only had two seats and just 2.63 percent of the vote. However this time in AP, the BJP has concentrated on fewer seats and spent a fortune on it during the campaign.
The possibility of gaining some ground in the AP assembly and substantial ground in Orissa gives the BJP confidence. They think that the numbers game in forming new state governments will pave the way for the BJP to become serious contender for power in New Delhi.
Jaitley says, “If we get few seats more in UP and Congress loses as much in Andhra Pradesh then it is in trouble.”
The BJP which was suffering from infighting and groping for a pan-Indian issue and seemed utterly confused in its response to the Varun Gandhi [Images] issue seems to have covered some ground thanks to turn of events in the last few weeks. Of course, these are only assumptions but there are enough clues to show that the BJP is coming closer to sit at the high table of power in New Delhi, directly or indirectly.
The Congress is top heavy and the BJP is not. The Congress does not project its regional faces well. And Sonia Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi [Images], Rahul Gandhi [Images] and Dr Singh combined are too stylish for voters’ tastes to match against the real, earthy, regional, ethnic and foxy appeal of entire range of leaders starting from Sharad Pawar, Nitish Kumar, Mayawati, Narendra Modi [Images] to even, Raman Singh.
This election seems to be monopolised by voters with a regional mindset and the sweet smiles of Priyanka Gandhi can’t fill up the void.
In Haryana, AP and Delhi, the state Congress leaders charm and policies are working but in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh [Images] too many leaders are spoiling the party. The going is getting tougher for the party election after election in the absence of strong regional leaders here.
The Congress is facing the fury of the regional leaders directly and the heat is not so much on the BJP. The factor that is working well for the BJP is that the general mood of all the regional parties is directed against the Congress. In the states which are crucial for the BJP to retain its strength of 2004, it is pitted against Congress. Like MP, Rajasthan and Gujarat but in the states which are important for the Congress it is pitted against regional parties or the Left parties and strong regional leaders.
The Congress is facing the direct and intense ire of anti-Congress regional leaders. If you see what occupies media space the picture is clear. The stories of Lalu Yadav [Images] versus the Congress, TDP versus the Congress, Left parties versus the Congress and even Pawar versus the Congress have captured our attention more than Lalu Yadav hitting out against L K Advani [Images].
The BJP is hoping that it would also gain by default as the Congress gained in 2004. And, equally important is that in some 150 Lok Sabha constituencies the party has focussed on the selective seats and select states. By spending money judiciously only on winnable seats the BJP has forced others to take them seriously.
The biggest achievement of the BJP so far is that they have not raised the pitch for Hindutva (except the unethical defence of Varun Gandhi) and even Modi is restrained. Because of it, so far, Muslim votes don’t seem to have polarised against the BJP with a vengeance.
This election is more like the ‘big bazaar’ of different caste groups of India. Even today, the BJP doesn’t have a Mayawati-like hold over any caste group like she has over the Dalits. But at a mini-micro level in each constituency where there is a triangular contest, it is trying to play the game seriously to benefit from the division of votes.
Congress allies like the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party are not doing better than in 2004. The BJP’s hope is that the TDP and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam are certainly going to fare better than 2004 and are more likely to keep away from the Congress after the election for various reasons.
The BJP was in disarray when the polls were announced. The joke was that BJP stalwarts like Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj, Jaswant Singh and Murli Manohar Joshi were fighting the election to compete for the post of Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha.
Of course, if at all the BJP seems to be slowly gaining ground it is largely by default.
The party had hardly played an effective role as the lead Opposition party in the last five years. Its opposition to the India-US nuclear deal was confusing and conntradictory to its core voters’s thinking.
The BJP also got embroiled in infighting when controversial figures like Sudhanshu Mittal tried to get more than they deserved.
But once the election bugle was blown and the party started getting a good response from Uttar Pradesh, there is a perceptible change in its position as the challenger to the UPA. Jaitley, who is looking after the BJP’s publicity, logistics and resources to keep cadres and leaders battle-fit, is ensuring that the party puts its best foot forward in the remaining phases of the election.
BJP supporters are hoping the party wins 16 to 18 seats in Gujarat (of 26); 12, 13 seats in Rajasthan (they had 21 in 2004) out of 25 while in MP they hope to retain at least 22 seats out of the 25 seats that they won in 2004. In UP they are aiming for 17, 18 and in Bihar 10 (they won 5 seats last time) and in Maharashtra 12 seats (they won 13 in 2004).
If their hopes turn true then it will inch them closer to the Congress’s target. They are hoping that Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand [Images] will help them partially counter the Congress gains in Kerala, Punjab and West Bengal.
The Congress’s failure in setting an agenda for any debate on its real achievement in the last five years, the absence of emotions that revolves around the secularism-communalism debate during elections, the lack of a decentralised power structure within the party, the absence of respect for its regional leadership and its arrogance to not accept the coalition ethos has given the BJP a chance to become a challenger, even though quite late, in this election.
Whether this confidence is just a spin or real will be known in less than one month but that the Congress is on the backfoot is for sure for another reason as well.
Some BJP supporters point out that the Congress has made a mistake of not going for pre-poll alliances at the national level with allies like the NCP and the RJD. It would have given them short term gains. A senior BJP leader argued that, “The Congress has made the biggest blunder by announcing Dr Manmohan Singh as the prime ministerial candidate. This untimely move by Sonia Gandhi provoked regional allies. This has brought non-Congress leaders of the UPA and non-BJP leaders in one bracket.”
The BJP leader also drew an interesting scenario. “Even if for the sake of argument we claim that the Congress will become the single largest party, it is highly unlikely that the UPA will become the biggest bloc after the poll. The NDA will emerge as the single largest bloc after the election. President Pratibha Patil [Images] will have to invite the single largest pre-poll alliance and not the single largest party or the largest post-poll alliance to form the next government,” he said.
However, this is a grey area.
Subhash Kashyap, the Constitutional expert, suggests that, “President Patil should declare her preference before the results are announced regarding this issue. Will she invite the single largest party, single largest pre-poll alliance or single largest post-poll alliance? She should make her choice clear to remain above controversy.”
The Congress which claims it will be the single largest party in the election has no pre-poll alliance at the national level. It has only ‘seat adjustments’ in a few states while the NDA will claim that it has gone to polls as the single unit and should be construed as a single entity.
One is not sure what Patil will do if the BJP does not become the single largest party but the NDA becomes the single largest pre-poll alliance after the results are out.
April 25, 2009 at 3:17 AM
Sri Lankan forces are on full assault. Now, it is a matter of when.
If Prabhakaran is killed before TN goes for poll on May 13th , Cong-DMK will win 0 seats in TN. Cong is requesting Sri Lanka to delay the operations, but I think Sri Lanka is not backing out now.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/cornered-by-lankan-forces-prabhakaran-planning-to-flee/91060-2.html
April 25, 2009 at 6:44 AM
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/Jitters-in-Congress-camp-as-estimates-go-for-a-six/articleshow/4446350.cms
Jitters in Congress camp as estimates go for a six
It’s time for a reality check for Congress. Although the party is persisting with the “we are on a roll” line in public, there is
nervousness in the leadership over the Grand Old Party’s performance in six key states that account for 212 seats. These include the two game changer states of 2004 — Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh — party-run Maharashtra and BJP controlled MP, Gujarat and Karnataka.
The crisis in Sri Lanka and its emotive appeal to voters in Tamil Nadu is adding to the woes of Congress. As the Sri Lankan offensive mounts, the plight of the Tamils in the island nation is becoming an important electoral issue. At stake are 39 parliamentary seats.
The growing feeling that the Congress-led central government is not doing enough to halt the humanitarian crisis is unlikely to go down well in the state. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s decision to stick to the “cessation of hostilities” line even as Congress upgraded its call to a “ceasefire” has thrown a spanner in the party’s works.
Congress’ decision to scale up its call was reached after much deliberation: It came almost 24 hours after its the ally DMK called for a strike. A party leader said that with the electoral heat turned on to full, Congress cannot afford to be seen as aloof. It needed to step in and make its position clear given the intense political posturing and the pressure being mounted by various players in Tamil Nadu.
However, the party’s response to the state’s competitive politics ended up being in vain with the government and Congress speaking in different voices. This inability to manoeuvre comes over and above the Congress’ fears of being at the receiving end of the anti-incumbency vote.
The party had, while making its estimates, factored in gains in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. However, following the first round of polling in the two states, Congress strategists appear to be doubtful about the possibility of gains. A key reason for this being party infighting in the two states — the absence of cohesion in the state units with leaders pulling in different directions.
“We made some mistakes with ticket distribution in Karnataka”, a senior party leader said. A factor that is likely to have an adverse impact is the party’s inability to accommodate senior leader Siddaramaiah. A well-known Kuruva leader, Mr Siddaramaiah was slated to become the Congress Legislative Party leader.
To this end, the incumbent CLP leader Mallikarjun Kharge was inducted into the Congress Working Committee in February. But Mr Siddaramaiah was neither made the CLP leader nor fielded as a Lok Sabha candidate, leaving the Kuruva leader dissatisfied. None of this augurs well for Congress, which had already paid a price for neglecting Mr Siddaramaiah in last year’s assembly elections.
The other southern state giving the war room jitters is Andhra Pradesh
. Voters have exercised their franchise to elect a new state government as well as 42 members of Parliament. Farmers annoyed over the implementation of welfare schemes, the party’s stand on Telangana, the coming together of the Telegu Desam Party and one-time ally the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti, the entry of Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam into the political fray have contributed to the disquiet in the Congress camp. Sources indicated that Congress is expecting a heavy dent in its position.
In 2004, Congress netted 14 seats in Gujarat, senior leaders attribute Congress’ emerging as the single largest party to this windfall, especially as it came on the back of a BJP win in the state elections. There was an expectation in the party that it would be able to retain the seats. But Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi’s emergence as a “strong force” is making Congress feel uneasy.
A party leader said that while Mr Modi and BJP gained in strength on the back of a “development” agenda, the Gujarat unit of Congress seemed to be losing ground. Party strategists appear to worrying about the losses it will incur in the state.
Maharashtra, where Congress is in the fray with NCP, is also not presenting a optimistic picture for the party. What is making strategists nervous is the NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s constant positioning as a possible prime ministerial candidate. There is a feeling that Mr Pawar may just have an ace up his sleeve.
Analysts said that NCP could well be working against its ally in as many as seven parliamentary constituencies. Congress is contesting 25 of the 48 seats, while NCP is fielding candidates in 21.
April 25, 2009 at 4:36 PM
The PMK is a caste based party that is absolutely devoid of any principles except for a power sharing (looting) principle. It is a worse form of DMK and the only positive thing about them is that they really break into the DMK vote bank in a few districts.
The General Secretary of the Party one Mr. Kaduveti Guru is known to be behind almost all the two wheeler thefts in the area around Jayamkondan. Dr.S.Ramdas has only one aim and that is to accumulate more money than the DMK. Unfortunately for him the DMK had a head start and has more poweful ministries plus the state Govt. and he is not able to catch up.
He will be willing to join anyone who will give him freedom to loot.
April 25, 2009 at 5:18 PM
In AP the parties will get the following seats:
BJP – 3 to 4:
(Secunderabad, Malkajgiri, Chevvella —-> Sure
Hindupur —-> Based on luck)
INC – 10-14:
(Nellore, Ongole, Kadapa, Karnool, Rajampet, Machilipatnam, Vijayanagaram, Araku —> Sure
Visakhapatnam, Rajahmandri, Guntur, Eluru, Zaheerabad, Khammam, Nizamabad, Mahabhubabad —-> Based on luck)
TDP – 8 -12:
(Srikakulam, Chittoor, Bapatla, Narasaraopeta, Nagar Karnool, Anantapur, Vijayawada —> Sure
Hindupur, Rajahmandri, Guntur, Nizamabad, Khammam —-> Based on luck)
CPM & CPI – 2-3:
(Nalgonda, Bhuvanagiri —> Sure
Mahabhubabad —-> Based on luck)
TRS – 5-6:
(Medak, Karimnagar, Mahabubnagar, Peddapalli, Wrangal -Sure
Adilabad, Zaheerabad —> Based on luck)
PRP – 6-8:
(Anakapalli, Kakinada, Amalapuram, Narasapur, Tirupati, Nandyala —-> Sure
Eluru, Rajhamandri, Visakhapatnam —-> Based on luck)
MIM – 1
(Hyderabad —> Sure)
April 25, 2009 at 5:52 PM
Thanks Chandra. Good news. The lesser for ITALIAN garbage, the better it is.
April 25, 2009 at 6:55 PM
In Karnatak the poll turn is around 54% in the first phase. Most of educated voters/ employee didn’t cast their votes at all. At least for the coming phses, please encourage everybody to utilise their votes. It is not happen just by sending mails & forwards. Atleast on Election day every body shoud go to 4-5 neighbouring houses to your house & request them to go & utilise theire valueble votes. At the same time request them to do the same thing to inform the same message 4-5 neighbouring houses. If you find that your neighbours don’t have vote registration, take the responsibility to apply for vote imediately after the elections so that they can vote for coming elections at least. But don’t postpone them to wait for long time to register. It is the social responsibility of everybody. Please do the same. It is my kind appeal to everybody.
In AP the second phase turn out is 75.5%. ?It is very good compared with many places/states. I am expecting each state shoud record 85-95% for the coming elections(not for 2009). Only people will circulate mails regarding voter registration & all during election times. It is not correct. It should be done through out the year till all the people get their voter ID cards. Registering Vote is not at all sufficient & getting EPIC is also equally importand. Simultaneously we shoud encourage & do the same thing to get ration cards for all. With these inistiatives we can reduce the coruption also at some extent. I am always looking towards somebody who can sincearly do these two duties at least to their neighbours.
April 25, 2009 at 10:00 PM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Polling-agents-caught-on-camera-casting-votes-in-Andhra/articleshow/4448918.cms
April 26, 2009 at 12:12 AM
http://www.bjp.org/content/view/2866/494
April 26, 2009 at 2:28 AM
This analysis is far more reasonable than NDTV’s mid poll prediction. They have not given a single seat to BJP in A.P which is not Accurate. Prediction for Secunderabad is in full favor of BJP.
April 26, 2009 at 10:54 AM
Dear Chandra, Mahbubabad(ST) is being contested by TRS and Left Parties are contesting from Warrangal(SC)
April 26, 2009 at 4:31 PM
Chakresh,
I was hoping of BJP sweep in Uttarakhand(all 5 seats),isnt it possible????
April 27, 2009 at 8:17 AM
I Think congress has gone MAD!!!
at a congress rally, some sonia loyalist throws shoe on mms and moily wants Modi to Apologize since it happened in Gujarat.
this shows The Bankruptcy of congress and their cheap tactics as congress would lose and lose Badly and it’s tally would come down below 100, somewhere between 60-75.
my Projection for congress :
Andhra Pradesh (Zero in Telangana and 7-10 in The Rest of AP)
A &N Islands — NIL
Arunachal Pradesh — Nil
Assam — 2-3
Bihar — Nil
Chandigarh — NIL
Chattisgarh —- 1
Dadra and Nagar Haveli — 1
Daman and Diu — NIL
Delhi — 0-2
Goa — 0-1
Gujarat — 3-5(The congress will be routed under Modi Ji’s Charisma)
Haryana — 1-3(The congress striffing with internal conflict would be washed off by BJP-HLD Combine)
HP — 0-1
J&K — 1
Jharkhand — 1-2
Karnataka — 3-5
Kerala — 9-10
Lakshadeep — 1
MP — 3-5
Maharashtra — 7-10
Manipur — 1(the xtian region)
Meghalaya — 0-1
Mizoram — 1
Nagaland —- NIL
Orissa — 10
Puducherry — 1
Punjab — 3-4
Rajasthan — 5-7
Sikkim — NIL
TN — NIL
Tripura — NIL
UP — 2(raand/sonia and raand ki aulaad/raul vinci)
uttarkhand — 0-1
WB—5-7
so The Final Tally of congress would be :68-96
Thatz It.
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April 27, 2009 at 11:02 PM
Hi Raj,
You are getting to optimistic about Congress going below 100 but from my understanding Congress will be at 125 to 135. I think they will gain in Rajasthan. Now CON man able to rake up again issue of Gothra carnage investigation on Modi by SIT they may gain bit lost ground in some part.
April 28, 2009 at 7:48 AM
congress raking up godra will backfire on Them.
congress winning 125 is Utopian even for the media mafia
April 28, 2009 at 9:27 AM
I think the general tendency amongest the drawing room politicians have changed.After 2 rounds or phases now there is a genral phenomena that they have mentely prepared to go out in scorching heat wait for there turn and cast the vote.
Reason for this is very simple instead of blaming the system afterwards they themselves have decided to change the system by way of casting their vote.
The role of certain media and there editor in chief,political corespondents.has exposed now. Few days back they had a lot of respect amongest the intellectuals but they themselves have now thrown the cowdung on their faces. Shame on them.
I belive as a psyphologists your predictions is a reality with some changes in DELHI where NDA may win 5 seats kerla BJP may win kasargod seat and in rajasthan bjp may lose some seats….
April 28, 2009 at 9:32 AM
I forgot to add one more point.
The scenario in UP has considerabaly changed with various reasons ,hence we may find surprising results denting the seat share of BSP and SP with furthur consolidation for BJP and CONGRESS,,
April 28, 2009 at 10:03 AM
Hi Raj,
Congress is child in politics.Congress should not talk too much “Hindu” word. If Congress talks about Godhara, It will be backfire for congress. When will congress learn basic of politics, i do not know.
April 29, 2009 at 6:53 AM
Rats leaving sinking ship?
With uncertainty looming large over the prospects of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government coming back to power,
bureaucrats associated with ministers have started migrating to greener and safer pastures.
Sudhir Kumar, who authored the ‘turnaround’ story, seems to have sensed drastic changes in the political fortunes of his principal Lalu Prasad.
The Bihar cadre (1982 batch) IAS official is leaving his high-profile job as OSD to the railway minister and is moving to the power ministry as joint secretary. Even though his transfer-order has been issued, Sudhir Kumar is likely to join his new assignment only after the declaration of electoral verdict.
Sudhir Kumar is among the few officials whose services were sought by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar after he assumed power in the state. Faced with an acute shortage of efficient bureaucrats, the chief minister had urged prime minister Manmohan Singh to send back officials from his state who were on central deputation. The request was turned down subsequently.
Officials who have spent a significant part of their professional career in the Capital, it is said, have the right nose to assess the political climate prevailing in the country. In many cases, their analysis of the direction in which the wind is blowing is considered to be far more accurate than that of the psephologists and the political pundits.
9:17 pm (4 minutes ago) delete
Aby
With reports from the first two phases of polls in Bihar not too encouraging for the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Sudhir Kumar, many believe, has taken a prudent decision, that of shifting from the railway ministry and parking himself in another corner.
It’s not just that the bureaucrats have the uncanny ability to sniff the straws in the wind. After a new Lok Sabha is elected and the government-formation exercise is initiated, prospective ministers are deluged with requests to fill up their secretarial staff. Officials hoping to prolong their stay in the Capital and land up with a cushy job make a beeline to such members.
As it prepares to bow out of office, the Manmohan Singh government is busy parking its favourites, especially those who are superannuating office, in comfortable positions. These include regulatory authorities, statutory bodies and other agencies.
April 29, 2009 at 7:04 AM
Modi should be prime minister, says Rajasthan
In Rajasthan, where along with the temperature election fever is also rising, a strange wave seems to be building up in
vast swathes of the desert state.
The wave doesn’t concern a local man or local issue; it’s about a man who rules a neighbouring state with firmness or, what many not living in the state feel, high-handedness. The man, of course, is Narendra Modi—outstanding for some and bizarre for some others.
The love for the Gujarati leader is evident mostly in traditional BJP pockets like Ajmer but, like a blooming romance, is gaining strength from deep emotion in other areas too. In fact, so besotted is the average voter by the Gujarat strongman, he would not even blink his eyes before voting BJP were Modi the PM candidate.
BJP party workers in the state are giving their party just 10 seats. The result, they say, would be 15-10 in favour of Congress. But had BJP chosen Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, the party, feel most of its campaign-weary members, would have won hands down in the state.
The score: 21-4 in favour of the saffron party. What is it in the bearded leader that makes him such a rock star in Rajasthan? The people say it’s Narendra Modi’s single-minded pursuit of development. He’s driven and is in overdrive on development, the party workers feel. There are people who have shifted factories to Gujarat because Modi gives them everything on a platter and in a jiffy, “All the clearances are done in no time,” says Lalit Khatri, a tilemaker in Byawar, a small town off Ajmer.”
He has done so much in Gujarat, imagine what he will do to India if he becomes PM,” he says. But what about Modi’s poor record on communal relations. “Ah! we know all that. That’s not why we will vote for him. We will vote because the man delivers what he promises.” But he delivered riots too. “We should look to the future, not dwell on the past. I like what he has done to Gujarat. He’s a meticulous planner and a strong decision-maker,” says Khatri.
Former chief minister Vasundhara Raje, campaigning for her son Dushyant Singh who is contesting from Jhalawar, isn’t much enthused. “As of now, there’s Mr Advani and he’s our leader. We believe in the present. When it comes to the future, we will see.” But Advani’s popularity seems to be on the wane in Rajasthan.
Even the Sindhis, who exist in large numbers in places like Ajmer, don’t feel excited by the grand old man of the party. In the holy city, most of them say they will still vote for BJP but Advani’s candidature has nothing to do with that. They will go for BJP because they have always gone for BJP. They are traditional voters, they won’t ditch the party so easily.
Although Modi’s accent on development acts as a magnet for pulling in people, his image as a Hindutva strongman and an able decision-maker also draws in voters to his and his party’s fold.
In an issueless election, it’s clear people have only one dominating theme: development. Of course, they will not ignore caste (a huge factor in Rajasthan) and religion (a less important factor in the state) when they go to the EVMs, but they will surely keep development in mind.
April 29, 2009 at 3:43 PM
Launch of Indian Politics Forums (The first Indian Politics specific forums)
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
Why forums are essential besides blog
1. Readers can start their own topics
2. Readers can post polls
3. All those precious comments on older posts are not lost.
4. Better sense of community.
5. Better tools to engage in discussion
So go there and register and start posting
http://promiseofreason.com/forums/
April 29, 2009 at 8:29 PM
Guys
Please redistribute this news as much as possible.
http://outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20090428&fname=puri&sid=1
Is Sonia Above Questioning?
If the BJP is serious about fighting corruption there is no dearth of issues. Take the case of ‘payments in US dollars to the family members of Mr. Rajiv Gandhi, namely Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Ms Paola Maino, mother of Sonia Gandhi’ …
The BJP has taken up the secret Indian Swiss bank money issue. Does it seriously contemplate recovering the money? Or is it just a poll gimmick? Recall the party’s somersault on the Indo-US Nuclear-Deal. If the deal destroys national security, why have Arun Shourie and Yashwant Sinha not resigned? Are they political opportunists? Do they or don’t they really intend to deliver results on the Swiss money? If the BJP is serious about fighting corruption there is no dearth of issues. Take one glaring example.
On August 15, 2006 this scribe wrote: “Dr. Yevgeniya Albats is a Soviet journalist who …was appointed as member of the official KGB Commission set up by President Yeltsin in 1991. She had full access to secret files of the KGB. She authored a book, The State within a State: KGB and Its Hold on Russia …. Dr. Albats disclosed in her book that KGB chief Victor Chebrikov in December 1985 had sought in writing from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), ‘authorization to make payments in US dollars to the family members of Mr. Rajiv Gandhi, namely Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Ms Paola Maino, mother of Sonia Gandhi.’ CPSU payments were authorized by a resolution, CPSU/CC/No 11228/3 dated 20/12/1985; and endorsed by the USSR Council of Ministers in Directive No. 2633/Rs dated 20/12/1985. These payments had been coming since 1971, as payments received by Sonia Gandhi’s family, and ‘have been audited in CPSU/CC resolution No. 11187/22 OP dated 10/12/1984.’
“In 1992 the media confronted the Russian government with the Albats disclosure. The Russian government confirmed the veracity of the disclosure and defended it as necessary for ‘Soviet ideological interest’. The Hindu of July 4, 1992 carried this report….In November 1991 the respected Swiss magazine, Schweitzer Illustrate, published a report alleging that Rajiv Gandhi had 2.5 billion Swiss francs, equivalent roughly to two billion US dollars, in numbered Swiss bank accounts….Surely, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi owes herself and the nation an emphatic and effective rebuttal of the Albats charges?”
On November 8 2006 I again wrote: “…Until now there has been only deafening silence from Mrs. Gandhi and the Congress party….If the Albats allegation published in a reputed research book is false, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi should promptly deny it. Otherwise, her silence could be perceived as assent.”
The government remained silent. But so did all the opposition parties! Why? Are the opposition leaders themselves also vulnerable and compelled to maintain discreet silence? Draw your own conclusions.
April 30, 2009 at 7:24 AM
Slowly the crooked media is being exposed for their lies.
———————————————————
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Make-or-break-for-BJP-today/articleshow/4465737.cms
NEW DELHI: The third round of polling in 107 Lok Sabha seats on Thursday is a crucial test for BJP which needs to perform well in states where it
is in office to retain the credibility of its challenge.
The round is also crucial for Congress which hopes to makes inroads into the saffron belts, and for the Left which must contain its widely anticipated losses in the first round of polling in West Bengal while hoping for handsome returns for BSP in UP. But with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar, Maharashtra and UP in play, stakes are definitely higher for the BJP.
For the big two on the national scene, Thursday’s polling may go a long way in deciding final tallies. After a patchy second round comprising 141 seats, Congress needs to hold on to seats in Maharashtra, make gains in Mamata Banerjee’s company in West Bengal and dent BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka to improve its 2004 tally of 145. A good showing can give the UPA lead player a shot in the arm, and will enable it to bargain hard in the post-poll powerplay, particularly with regard to its leadership claims.
For BJP, the stakes are higher with 11 seats in Karnataka, 16 in MP and all 26 in Gujarat going to polls. In MP, it must repeat its feat of last year’s Assembly polls to beat back anti-incumbency. In Gujarat, it is depending on saffron strongman Narendra Modi to return a bigger tally, while hoping that caste alliances could help tide over an average performance by the B S Yeddyurappa government.
Of the total 107 seats up for grabs on Thursday, Congress held 24 in 2004 while BJP had won 27. Left Front had won 11 of 14 seats going to polls in West Bengal.
Some of the bigwigs in the fray include Congress chief Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli, BJP leader L K Advani in Gandhinagar, former PM H D Deve Gowda in Hassan and Jaswant Singh in Darjeeling.
The going for BJP in MP is harder this time with local factors affecting some seats, but divisions in Congress could go in its favour. Besides, the saffron party also hopes to tap chief minister Shivraj Chauhan’s emergence as a satrap and the return of rebel leader Uma Bharati to the BJP fold even though she is yet to formally rejoin.
In Gujarat, Narendra Modi has sought to latch on to Supreme Court’s ruling ordering a probe into his role in the 2002 riots, painting himself as a `victim’ to add pungency to the battle. The chief minister has called the SC order as a Congress plot against a Gujarati “son-of-the-soil”, in a repeat of his strategy when he used Congress chief Sonia Gandhi’s “maut ka saudagar (merchant of death)” remark to shape the 2007 assembly polls.
This time, he has set the bar higher for himself with his big win in the 2007 assembly polls. By fielding new faces, Modi has tried to limit the wages of incumbency, while an outreach to new caste groups has been attempted in order to lessen dependence on BJP’s traditional base.
Congress had won 12 seats in 2004 and would like to probe BJP’s weaknesses in the tribal belt and encash any division of saffron votes due to a front of BJP rebels contesting some seats.
In Karnataka, the third round includes Hassan, a Deve Gowda stronghold, and coastal belt of Mangalore which was hit by communal violence against churches and the infamous pub attack, both the handiwork of Ram Sene, a Hindutva group. BJP feels it will gain in Dakshina Kannada and Mysore and wrest Shimoga where chief minister Yeddyurappa’s son Raghvendra takes on former CM S Bangarappa.
In Maharashtra, it is mainly the six seats in Mumbai and adjoining urban and semi-urban seats of Kalyan, Thane, Bhiwandi and Palghar that will go to polls. Congress appears to have under-performed in the 25 seats in the second round and the task is tougher now. In Mumbai, it will face both incumbency at central and state levels in terms of issues like 26/11 and civic factors. The party had swept all but two of the seats in the Mumbai-Thane stretch. Indications suggest that Shiv Sena-BJP may be closing in this time.
NCP boss Sharad Pawar’s last minute effort to mend fences with Congress, even putting his prime ministerial claims in the background, seem to indicate the alliance is not doing as well as it had hoped. BSP has been steadily eating into Congress’s vote share. Though a bigger factor in Vidarbha, BSP has a presence in the third round seats as well.
In West Bengal, the Left faces the combined Congress-Trinamool Congress with the comrades holding eight of the 14 seats going to polls. Left is facing a fight on seats like Purulia and Bankura with a rejuvenated opposition fancying its chances on the strenth of resentment over land acquisition, Left Front’s poor score sheet and alienation of minorities from it. CPM veterans like eight-time MP Basudev Acharya are in the fray while ailing Congress leader Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi’s wife Deepa is contesting from Raiganj.
In the 11 seats that go to polls in Bihar, JD(U)-BJP seems confident about eight while there could be tough contests in constituencies like Kishanganj, Banka and Purnia. JD(U) rebel Digvijay Singh has gained some upper caste sympathy in Banka and could damage the ruling combine while NDA is looking for wins in Madhepura, Supaul and Bhagalpur. NDA is looking to benefit from Congress dipping into Muslim votes at the expense of the RJD-LJP combine.
In UP, 15 seats in the central part of the state will be going polls and Congress and BJP both hope to pick up a few seats. The main contenders remain BSP and SP, but going by trends reported by parties and analysts so far, the contests have been far from bi-polar in quite a few seats. It is certainly most crucial for SP which risked Muslim alienation by partnering BJP rebel Kalyan Singh chiefly for grabbing a lead here. Both BSP and BJP will still look forward to turning in its best performances in the next two phases which will cover western UP and north-west parts of the state.
April 30, 2009 at 7:58 AM
Karnataka: BJP hopes for a cakewalk
BANGALORE: It’s a battle for supremacy between former PM H D Deve Gowda, CM B S Yeddyurappa and former deputy CM Siddaramaiah in the 11 constituencies which go to the polls in the final phase of elections in Karnataka. Yeddyurappa’s son B Y Raghavendra is trying to enter electoral politics from the Shimoga constituency where he is pitted against former CM and Congress candidate S Bangarappa.
The 11 constituencies are likely to witness a direct contest between Congress and BJP, with JD(S) having presence in Mandya, Mysore, Hassan and Chamarajanagar. JD(S) has left the two coastal Malnad belt seats — Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chikmagalur — to the Left. The Congress presence in the 11 constituencies is negligible, with BJP winning seven, JD(S) two and Congress one seat in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. Kannada actor and Congress MP M H Ambareesh, who won the Mandya seat in 2004, is facing a tough challenge this time, with his irregular attendance in Parliament becoming the BJP’s trump card.
Siddaramaiah’s performance is also under the scanner. He has to ensure victory in his home district of Mysore, besides Mandya and Chamarajanagar. In Chamarajanagar, Congress is divided into Siddaramaiah and Mallikarjun M Kharge camps. State BJP president D V Sadananda Gowda has changed his constituency from Mangalore to Udupi-Chikmgalur, while former president of the state unit of Congress, B Janardhana Poojary, is making a comeback to national politics from Mangalore.
April 30, 2009 at 8:59 AM
According to me In Karnataka
Its going to be cakewalk for BJP in Shimoga(Yediyurappa’s home district)
Its not easy for Siddaramaih in his hometown after delimitation (Mysore constituency now consists more of Mysore city segments(3 assembly segments) and 2 strong BJP places of coorg district..Siddaramaih can hope only for remaining 3 segments, but JDS is also equally strong in those segment which may lead to split in votes of JDS and congress)… In his neighbouring district of CHamarajanagar which has send all COngress MLAs to assembly is facing tough time, As dalits in the area seems to be voting against COngress as they are upset with Siddaramaih over the issue of Kharge..COngress might win this seat but BJP has equal chance
Its going to be cake walk for BJP state president in My hometown
of CHikmagalur…
Mangalore(Dakshina Kannada) being the prestigious seat for BJP Can go either way….
BJP needs to really focus on development in Dakshina kannada if they need to retain their fort….
Its going to be cakewalk for HD Devegowda in Hassan
April 30, 2009 at 8:59 AM
From the recent inputs it seems like BJP will take the lion shar in Karnataka, JDS at distant second,COngres sbeing pushed to third spot
April 30, 2009 at 11:07 AM
I would be Very Happy if congress is Pushed to Third Place in Karnataka.
I Also hope and Wish a similar Feat is achieved in Orissa.
With BJP winning 10 Lok Sabha Seats, BJP 6-8(MOstly in The Tribal Belt) and congress 3-5.
That would be Fun
April 30, 2009 at 11:54 AM
Raj
Seriously that can happen If bJP performs well
JDS is most likely to win 4 seats (Hassan,Mandya,Bangalore(rural,Tumkur)
If BJP manages to get say arnd 21 seats , then congress will just have 3 seats
May 1, 2009 at 8:31 AM
Phase III is spread across saffron strongholds. Four men, like regional satraps — 3 from the BJP — 1 from NDA — on the good governance plank — will dictate the verdict. The BJP assessment for this round is:
NDA will win 60 seats against 44 in 2004
Gain in Gujarat, Bihar, UP and Maharashtra
Suffer very minor losses in MP, and Karnataka
The phase is also Narendra Modi’s litmus test. He may not only help Advani’s quest for the PM’s post but also put himself in the reckoning for 2014.
“It’s encouraging. I do calculations but do not share,” said Narendra Modi, Chief Minister, Gujarat.
At the party headquarter, the positive war room spin is being openly shared over cups of tea. Poor turn out due to soaring temperature and marriage season is a worry – so appeals to voters are being issued.
With no major setbacks in sight the BJP hopes to win more to emerge as the single largest party. The mood is upbeat — but one word of caution — the BJP even if losing usually has the swagger of a winner, Congress even if winning the body language of a loser.
May 1, 2009 at 10:40 AM
LAL is completely in his assessment!!! Perfect dude!!!
May 1, 2009 at 10:07 PM
Absolutely wrong poll predictions
May 2, 2009 at 12:14 AM
complete analysis is here http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
Based on feedback received from the ground in some states as well as newspaper, TV reports, web blogs and discussions during the 3 phases of “India Votes 2009”, my state wise estimate is given below. I would request all readers to give your valuable inputs also.
State NDA UPA Left Others Total
Manipur 0 2 0 0 2
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0 2
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2
Mizoram 0 1 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 2
Nagaland 1 0 0 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 1
Goa 1 1 0 0 2
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0 1
Dadra & Nagar 1 0 0 0 1
Lakshwadip 0 1 0 0 1
Andaman 1 0 0 0 1
Daman Diu 1 0 0 0 1
Total 10 5 2 1 18
THE BIG PICTURE
a)NDA [BJP, JD(U), SHS, INLD, RLD, SAD, AGP, NCP in NE (P.Sangma)] = 195-200
b)UPA [INC, NCP, DMK, MUL, MIM, KEC, NC, TMC] = 170-175
c)3rd front [Left, TDP, TRS, BJD, AIADMK+, JD(S), BSP] = 140-145
d)4th front [RJD, SP, LJP] = 30-35
e)Others / Independents = 01-02
NATIONAL PARTIES
a) BJP = 150-155
b) INC = 140-145
The catch is if NDA slips in the crucial swing states of UP, Maharashtra, and/or performs worse than predicted by me in Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat and/or TDP/Left alliance slips in AP, then it would be tough for LKA to realize his dream.
May 2, 2009 at 7:10 AM
raja ur analysis abt larnataka has gone completely wrong..BJP can no way loose udupi-chikmagalur seat,Its one of the confirmed seat…ofcourse mangalore seat is tough,but seeing the voter turnout,,which was as high as 80 in BJP strongholds within Mangalore,BJP should win this seat….Ur point of INC winning Bangalore central is pointless..bcoz here competition is between BJP and JDS and INC is in third spot…INC strongholds witnessed low turnout also…..Only worrying factor is north karnataka,which we assume that it will b for BJP,but if reversed then it woukd b big problem…
May 2, 2009 at 7:47 AM
Raja
My sources tell that Gujarat BJP all set to score atleast 20 out of 26. May be even 22.
Maharashtra seems to be disastrous for CONGRESS. CON party was undermined by NCP. BJP/SS can do 28-32 and CON party/NCP seems to be going to 16-20.
Where did u get these numbers from?
Even Priyanka is saying Touch and Go. That means she is panicking that she is losing badly.
If BJP can minimize losses in Rajasthan, Punjab it can do way more than CON party
May 2, 2009 at 9:23 AM
Raja,
I must congratulate you for a great effort. Only the final results can prove how accurate you are. As regards your assessment for Tamil Nadu, I would say the DMK+ may get around 10 seats the AIADMK+ around 25 seats out of which the communists may get 3 to 4 the BJP has great hopes on atleast 2 seats while I do believe that Vijaykanth is also likely to get 1 or more seats. Vijaykanth will poll around 20% and the Congress may eventually tie up with him after suffering another humiliating alliance with the AIADMK.
May 2, 2009 at 9:47 AM
Raja your analysis about Karnataka and Gujarath are dead wrong.
My latest sources tell me that BJP is close to making clean sweep in karnataka (22-25) in Karnataka.
Congress in Mangalore seems to be ccompletely demoralized after 75 percent polling with BJP/RSS strong organization more than matching Jihadi/Evangelical voters of congress.
Sure congress seats like Chitradurga, Chamrajnagar, Kolar, even Kharge’s Gulbarga have landed in BJP’s hands.
My sources tell that BJP candidate may have defeated Kumaraswamy in Bangalore rural and in Hassan Devegowda had a scare of his life in traingular fight.
It is possible that both Dodda Gowda(Deve gowda) and Sanna Gowda will taste defeat and only JD(S) candidate and winner in Mandya will find defection more profitable.
The final results may be like this
BJP 20-24 (22 most likely).
Congres 4
JD(S) 1-2.
May 2, 2009 at 10:29 AM
Raja,
You are very negative about BJP chances in gujrat. I have many friends in ABVP friends in gujrat and everyone is having confidence of winning 20 seats. All the factors u mentioned were present in 2007 assembly elections. I think we should have some faith in modi’s political mind..Lot of his pride is on stake.
I am from Rajasthan and everyone is underestimating BJP power there.
There are many points which i feel we should consider before we come to any conclusions.
1. Meena consolidation behind congress. BJP could not consolidate Gujjar voters behind them. (Situation has changed now, Meena votes are going to get divided due to KL meena factor, Gujjar consolidation due to Bainsala joining BJP and Gujjar know only BJP can get them reservation). One more thing we are undue importance to meena-gujjar factor. We should not forget JATS are still by far in majority.
2. Jats were expecting a JAT CM(col sonaram) from congress. But Ashok gehlot was made CM. Jats are not happy with congress. I come from Barmer seat where jats are majority. col sonaram did extensive campaigning during assembly election but were not seen once during parliamentary election. Jats have not forgotten that BJP included them in OBC list.
3. In assembly elections, many micro elements tends to effect poll outcome. BJP had so many rebels. Rebel factor is not much there in this election even if it is there it will not effect poll outcome.
4. Urban voters and Urban seats have increased this time which is going to help BJP this time.
5. RSS organization is very strong in rajasthan specially in western and east rajasthan. RSS was not very pleased with Vasundhara raje. It effected assembly results. This is one of the reason BJP has always done better in lok sabha election.
Don’t forget when Gehlot got majority in 1998. Just after assembly elections BJP got 15 seats out of 25 seats.
6. General Feeling about Vasu govt was good. Investments and job creation during BJP govt were at peak. govt empoyess were very happy during Vasu govt. general urban voters were suprised to see results against BJP govt.(I still don’t believe BJP lost because of vasu).
So don’t worry so much about rajasthan. We still have good organization in rajasthan and we will make up for above factors. Tally will not go below 14 seats.
May 2, 2009 at 10:36 AM
Dear Chakresh ji
Can u pl put my predictions given on 2nd May as a separate blog so that I can compile and take into a/c views from all readers.
May 2, 2009 at 10:47 AM
I disgaree that Raighad, Maval and Ratnagiri are toss up seats for the following reasons
a) In the three seats UPA had 2 muslim candidates and one son of Narayan Rane
b) Konkan has always been a strong hold of sena ( Even without Rane)
c) SHS not only had the support of BJP but also the support of PWPI. Last time in these constituencies PWPI has put up candidates and they had about 30% vote share which this time they will transfer to SHS.
May 2, 2009 at 10:49 AM
Toss up seats are Nanded, Ahmed Nagar, Sangli (independent being supported by NDA), Mumbai South and Mumbai North central
May 2, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Yes Dear Raja, I too feel, Your Analysis has to be A New Post.
You seem to be more Cautious then most of us in the cyberworld are.
But, I dont understand, how congress can retain it’s 2004 tally.
In 2004, congress and commies had an overt/covert alliance in All states except kerala. And that was the only reason, they did so well(i.e., cross the 100 Mark). This time, there is Widespread Anger against congress. sonia-raul couldnt cheer crowd and their campaign is lacklustured. even sonia-raul are aware that congress would be routed
May 2, 2009 at 1:47 PM
Dear Raj
BJP workers got overconfident after 2 phases resuling in some setbacks in Gujarat as well as in Coastal belts of Karnataka. Generally, media reports, views from public do not take into a/c tacit understandings at the ground level and in turn tends to skew the results. There is such understanding between JD(S) and INC in 11 seats in Karnataka, which would offset the gains after assembly polls in 2008. On top of that there is the Church attacks, pub attacks, which has led to strategic voting of minorities.
In Gujarat, decision to give importance of caste over developement was not expected from Narendra Modi. By giving tickets to candidates with criminal background, some of his admirers feel let down. BJP had taken its lanslide victory in the State for granted before casting of ballots.
This time, major losses for INC would be from the states of AP, TN, Assam, Jharkhand, Haryana, UP (35-38 seats); whereas it would suffer minor losses in Himachal, Union Territories, Maharsahtra, Bihar (8-10 seats). This would be offset by big gains in Kerela, Rajasthan, Punjab, Orissa (37-40 seats) and minor gains in MP, Chhatisgarh, NE states, Uttarakhand (3-6 seats), where NDA had reached saturation point in 2004.
Hence if INC manages to retain its 2004 tally in the states of Karnataka (8 seats) & Gujarat (12 seats), it would ensure that the overall loss of the Grand Old party would be around 5 seats.
The biggest advantage of INC is that it has still a wider reach in the country than BJP. Nowadays, it is the anti incumbency against the local government, which mostly decide the voting pattern. BJP has not been able to make much headway on its own in large states like AP, Kerela, Orissa, TN, WB where INC is still a force to reckon with. In 1996-98, BJP was able to offset this advantage of INC by making huge gains in UP. However INC still got around 140 seats in these elections.
In 1999, 3 factors were at work against INC; a) Vajpayee wave – Kargil war, b) 22 party rainbow NDA alliance and c) INC split (with NCP). This ensured the grand old party register its worst ever performance winning only 113 seats.
In 1999, had the INC-NCP split not occured, then the tally in Maharashtra would have been :
INC/NCP – 41 (52% votes)
SHS/BJP – 7 (38% votes)
This would have ensured INC reach around 144 seats in the 13th Lok sabha.
May 2, 2009 at 2:16 PM
@Raja
Done
http://promiseofreason.com/pre-poll-prediction-after-phase-3-by-shiladitya-bose/
@everybody else
now all of us can fire our guns at him in a more organized manner
May 2, 2009 at 2:48 PM
Chakresh ji
THANX A LOT!!!!
Dear All –
Though my real name is Shiladitya Bose, I would be comfortable with my nickname Raja
Pl post your inputs, analysis so that I can also update myself
May 2, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Third phase confusion
The gradually shrinking turnout figures–with a direct correlation to the rising mercury–is making it very difficult to say anything concrete about the outcome in terms of seats.
Moreover, in this phase there appears to be a sharp mismatch between those who have gathered quantitative data and those who rely on more conventional journalistic methods.
Where there is a conflict of conclusions I have given both views:
In Madhya Pradesh there is no question that the BJP has won a majority of seats. The exit pollster says it is a conclusive victory and that the BJP tally will improve over 2009. Some party activists whose views are generally reliable aren’t that optimistic. They see a definite slippage in the Malwa region and final tally of BJP 20 and Congress 9.
The same confusion prevails as far as Karnataka is concerned. The pollsters who rely on actual exit polls say that it is a conclusive BJP victory verging on a clean sweep. Journalists who were there on polling day say that heavy voting by Muslims and Christians will see a BJP defeat in the Mangalore belt (a similar trend was reported earlier from Bangalore), This fear is shared by some senior BJP leaders too. However, the pollsters are adamant that the Congress performance has been dismal.
There is relatively less confusion in Uttar Pradesh. There is a consensus that Congress has done very well in Phase 3 and may win seats it has not won since 1984. It has received silent but en masse Muslim support in constituencies such as Lucknow and it has picked up Dalit and upper-caste votes too. However, it is unlikely that this will translate into victories in more than 2 to 3 seats in this phase since the party proceeds from a very low base. The BJP on the other hand may pick up anything between 3 and 5 seats in this phase. Its popular vote is thought to be fractionally below that of the BSP and SP. Like in Phase 2 the SP may be the big loser (although by way of caution let me add that a similar prognosis turned out to be unfounded in both 1999 and 2004). The BSP is picking up seats steadily but the overall tally is nowhere commensurate with what Mayawati won in 2007.
Apart from NDTV which is forecating a decisive 30-18 win for the Congress-NCP, other pollsters are predicting exactly the opposite result. In the 10 seats of Phase 3, the most generous tally for the Congress is 5 seats. The overall impression is one of a 50:50 divide with the BJP-SS having an advantage in terms of popular votes.
The direction of the overall Gujarat result isn’t in any doubt. Pollsters are predicting anything between 19 and 21 seats for the BJP. The only cautionary note is that there is only a 3-4 per cent difference in the popular vote of the BJP and Congress.
There are two views on the 14 seats of West Bengal that polled in Phase 3. The pollsters are suggesting a decisive Left win with the Cong-TMC picking up at best 4 seats. I have not heard alternative suggestions.
The belief that Congress may not be the largest party on May 16 is gaining ground. In an uncertain situation there are the usual whispers of IB assessments which put Congress below 140. The political trouble shooter of a very large industrial house indicated that the present trends indicated a final tally of BJP 165 and Congress 130. Much is being made of Rahul Gandhi’s “off the record” briefing to political editors on Friday morning that he wasn’t bothered about what happens in the next 15 days but in how politics shapes up in 30 years time. There is also a buzz about Priyanka’s interview in Outlook suggesting a very close contest. Some idiotic BJP-types are taking these bush telegraph signals to heart and dreaming about sarkari appointments. I would unhesitatingly say that they are fools because if the Congress does well in Rajathan, Punjab and Haryana in the next two phases, the whole game could change.
May 2, 2009 at 10:09 PM
Updated Rajasthan Poll predictions:
Read this post in conjunction with my original predictions. I have updated only those which have changed. Most predictions remain the same.
Ganganagar:
Toss up. Either may get it and the victory margin will be small. The Congress may have a very slight advantage, but it is hard to say.
Bikaner:
Slight advantage BJP. If they play their cards right, they should be able to win here.
Churu:
Steady Advantage BJP. The Congress has done the BJP a favour and fielded a Muslim in the Jat stronghold. Unless the Congress does something exceptional, or the BJP something drastically stupid, the BJP will keep this seat.
Jhunjhunu:
The BJP has fielded Dasharath Singh Shekhawat, but he is not really a match for Sheesh Ram Ola.
Strong advantage Congress. Unless there is a miracle from heaven or the Congress does something extraordinarily stupid, they will win this seat.
Sikar:
The BJP MP, Subhash Meharia, a Jat, is quite popular in his constituency. While there is a bit of anti-incumbency against him, he should be able contend against it fairly effectively. The Congress has fielded Mahadev Singh Khandela. Mahadev Singh is a newcomer and an outsider, and is not the old warhorse that Subhas Meharia is. What has torn the contest here open is the entry of Amra Ram of the CPI(M) – a sitting MLA in one of the assembly segments. Amra Ram is not a newcomer and has been contesting elections from this constituency from 1996 (he has never won). However, he can effectively ruin the chances of the Congress since he shares the same vote bank as the Congress. If Subhas Meharia wins, he should send a garland to Amra Ram.
Toss up. Impossible to predict.
Jaipur Rural:
The Congress has fielded Lal Chand Kataria, who had been defeated by the BJP candidate, Rao Rajendra Singh, in the just concluded Assembly elections. Rao Rajendra Singh is popular on his own and interestingly, the first choice of the Congress, Maharani Divya Singh, refused to contest from this constituency. Therefore, the choice fell on the just defeated Lal Chand Kataria. The BJP should have an easy time winning this constituency
Steady advantage BJP. They should win here without difficulty.
Jaipur:
Strong advantage BJP. They should win here without too much trouble.
Alwar:
The Congress candidate, Jitender Singh’s flip-flops (he agreed to contest, withdrew, and then agreed to contest again) have demoralised the Congress cadre. The BJP holds the trumps here.
Steady advantage BJP. They need to consolidate their hold here and work on the upper castes and the OBCs, who will determine the fate of the party.
Bharatpur:
Steady advantage BJP. They should win here, if they don’t do anything stupid.
Karauli-Dhaulpur:
The Congress has fielded Khilari Lal Bairwa against Dr. Manoj Rajoriya of the BJP. Neither of them are very strong by themselves. BJP holds a slight advantage here.
Dausa:
A four cornered battle. Three Meenas (Laxman Meena of the Congress, Ram Kishore Meena of the BJP and Kirori Lal Meena) and one Gujjar-Muslim (Qamar Chechi). If the Muslims and Gujjars polarise behind Chechi, he might just win the elections (both Muslims and Gujjars are in substantial numbers). Meena votes will get divided between Congress, Kirori Lal and even Ram Kishore to an extent. Brahmins (the other strong community in the area) will count for a lot in this case. It is likely that Brahmins will vote the BJP in large part, but Brahmins alone, without the Gujjars and/or Meenas are not sufficient to push the BJP candidate through. All depends on how Gujjars vote.
Toss up. Impossible to predict.
Sawai Madhopur:
The BJP has fielded Col. Kirori Singh Bhainsla against Namo Narayan Meena of the Congress. If ever there was an open declaration of what side the BJP is taking in the Gujjar-Meena tussle, this is it. By fielding Col. Bhainsla, the BJP is signalling that it is ready to support the Gujjars. The re-entry of Prahlad Gunjal to the BJP is another sign that the BJP is going all out to mend fences with the Gujjars, and from all accounts, it is working at least to a good extent.
The fielding of Col. Bhainsla is not important in itself. After all, even with the support of the Gujjars and other traditional BJP voting classes, Col. Bhainsla still faces an uphill task against Namo Narayan. The fielding of Col. Bhainsla is important for its significance to Gujjars.
In this seat, the Congress still holds better cards. Steady advantage Congress.
Ajmer:
Toss up. Sachin Pilot vs Kiran Maheshwari. Impossible to predict. This will be a very close battle. This is also a test case about how much the BJP has been successful in wooing the Gujjars. As of now, in Ajmre, neither side holds any real advantage.
Nagaur:
Toss up. Neither side holds any real advantages over the other. Also, it remains to be seen if the BSP can make a come back and eat into the votebank of either party.
Pali:
Steady advantage BJP. If they manage their campaign well, they will win from the constituency.
Jodhpur:
While the BJP held a small advantage at the beginning the campaigning, the entry of Maharaja Gaj Singh (Maharaja of Jodhpur) on the side of his sister, Chandresh Kumari (the Congress Candidate), has queered the pitch for the BJP. It all depends on how much Gaj Singh can persuade the Rajputs (the largest community) to vote the Congress. The Muslims will vote the Congress, while the Jats and the Bishnois will vote Jaswant Singh Bishnoi (the BJP candidate). Jaswant Singh Bishnoi is a heavyweight himself, but the fight is too close to call.
Toss up. Impossible to predict.
Barmer:
Steady advantage Congress. Unless Manvendra Singh (Jaswant Singh’s son) does something special, the seat is going to return to the Congress.
Jalore:
Triangular contest with the entry of Buta Singh. Actually, his appearance queers the pitch for the Congress, and he may end up taking this backward class votes. However, the Congress is not a pushover, and it is hard to predict things now.
Toss up. Impossible to predict.
Udaipur:
Steady Advantage Congress. The BJP may find this one tough to hold on to.
Banswara:
Strong advantage Congress. The BJP will need a miracle to win this one.
Chittaurgarh:
Steady advantage Congress. The BJP will need to work hard to win here.
Rajsamand:
Steady advantage BJP. This is probably the safest seat for the BJP, alongside Jaipur. The BJP should win here, barring unforeseen occurrances.
Bhilwara:
Slight advantage BJP. They need to work very carefully not to fritter it away and make sure that they work unitedly. If they do it, there is no reason why Mr. Singh should not get a third term.
Kota:
The Congress has fielded Ijaraj Singh, the former Maharaja of Kota, against Shyam Sundar Sharma of the BJP. While Ijaraj is a seasoned campaigner, Shyam Sundar Sharma is not exactly experienced. His newness might tell against him. Also, Ijaraj Singh has his own vote apart from the Congress vote. He holds a slight advantage here.
Slight advantage Congress.
Jhalawar-Baran:
Marginal advantage BJP. But really, they need to get their own machinery up and running or they will be out of the race.
Strong advantage BJP: Jaipur
Steady advantage BJP: Churu, Jaipur Rural, Alwar, Bharatpur, Pali, Rajsamand
Slight advantage BJP: Karauli-Dhaulpur, Bhilwara, Jhalawar-Baran
Toss up: Sikar, Dausa, Ajmer, Nagaur, Jodhpur, Jalore
Slight advantage Congress: Ganganagar, Kota
Steady advantage Congress: Sawai Madhopur, Barmer, Udaipur, Chittaurgarh
Strong advantage Congress: Jhunjhunu, Banswara
Advantage BJP – 11
Advantage Congress – 8
Toss up – 6
Assuming that the BJP gets a 33% strike rate in the toss up seats, the BJP should get 13, and the Congress 12.
May 3, 2009 at 10:24 AM
wait till may 16th sirish
May 4, 2009 at 6:10 PM
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=HomePage&id=2700cead-3538-42d9-abdd-145933950a0d&Headline=We+could+be+in+for+a+short+govt
With barely a few days left for the fourth phase of elections to be held, there do not seem to be any clear winners in the 15th Lok Sabha polls. This is the most issueless election ever and both the Congress and the BJP have not been able to set any agenda. Both seem to be contesting , as others are doing, in a political vaccum. This explains why regional parties have already started flexing their muscles and are certainly going to play a major part in the formation of the next government.
The BJP, which, at one time, found it difficult to cross the three-figure mark, has done reasonably well in the first three phases and is certainly past the century mark. Many analysts also believe that at the end of the third stage it could even lead the pack. But it is the fourth phase, which is crucial for the Congress. If it is able to win or retain seats already in its kitty, it should have no problem in emerging as the single largest party.
The number one slot has become important since whoever gets the maximum seats will have more options open to it than the others. For instance, the party that comes out on top will certainly be in a position to be the first to be invited to form the government. The party shall always have the option of either sitting in the opposition knowing well that the stability of the next government may always be in doubt. The largest party similarly may also determine which regional leader or party should lead the government if it decides to support the government from outside.
The likely scenario emerging after three phases also has given ample indication that it will be increasingly difficult for either Dr Manmohan Singh or Mr L.K.Advani to lead the next government. Though nothing can be said with finality in politics, things seem to be moving in this direction.
The BJP is apparently the first party to acknowledge the difficulties in Advani becoming the next Prime Minister. The suggestion by Arun Shourie, Arun Jaitley and Yashwant Sinha that Narendra Modi could be a possible PM nominee in the post- Advani set-up is not without significance. The suggestion shows the anxiety of these leaders over the fate of the BJP and Advani in the post-poll scenario. It also indicates that the uncertainty over the BJP assuming the leading role has given way to a power struggle within the saffron brigade.
Sushma Swaraj, another leading BJP leader was the first to criticise her own colleagues for bringing up Modi’s name while the contest was still on. She cited Hindu scriptures and traditions and said that sons do not participate in Rasam Pagri when the father is still around. She, in effect, lashed out at the supporters of Modi for the top position. Even Venkaiah Naidu, whose own disillusionment with the way things are happening within the BJP, has increasingly distanced himself from any suggestions regarding Modi being made the top BJP boss. Rajnath Singh whose seat is being hotly contested also chose not to give any credence to the Modi brigade.
What is happening in the BJP is also the result of the reshuffle within the RSS where Mohan Bhagwat, a stickler for ideology, has taken over. He is allergic to Advani and some of those who are today trying to prop up Modi. His opinion about Modi may be favorable but he certainly wants to bring about a change within the BJP with some others in mind. He has been able to contain the ABVP lobby within the RSS and is now set to assert himself in the post-poll scenario. It is on his instructions that the RSS cadres are working hard for the BJP nominees even in constituencies like East Delhi where the Congress appears to be in a strong position till date.
The Congress is banking on the fourth and fifth phase to give it the number one slot. But it is also equally worried about the final result. Poor poll management has jeopardised the party’s chances in many constituencies. But, despite that, it hopes to cross or equal its 2004 score of 145 seats. The party has not changed its position regarding the prime ministerial candidate as yet. But post-poll compulsions may compel it to adopt a different strategy.
The Congress managers know that if the Congress and the BJP add up to over 272, the halfway mark, then no government can be formed at the Centre without the participation or support of either of the two parties regardless of the understanding amongst regional players.
The game is wide open as of now and in this lacklustre and issueless election, the outcome may be full of surprises for the big two if they are unable to assess the ground realities and act accordingly. The 15th Lok Sabha will be short-lived unless there is a convergence of interests among some regional parties.
Between us.
May 5, 2009 at 11:10 AM
Dear manojk
It is only drawing room columnist like Pankaj vohra feel that LS elwctions are being fought in an issueless vaccum.
Apart from a no. of regional, sub-regional and costituency level local micro issues like; Sri Lankan Tamil crisis, civic amenities: water-electricity-roads, school fee hike, implementation of pay commission, law and order, state govt. performance, caste-community equations and candidate’s – image, relations, record, criminal background if any, playing their due role.
There are national level issues which are definitely working.
The one at the top of them all is
PRICE INFLATION
People across the country are feeling the burnt and are highly criticising of UPA Govt’s failure to control price of neccesities like food items.
and Govt’s claims of near 0 inflation is further rubbing salt on their injuries.
Then unemployment due to economic recession, pay-cuts and business losses is another important issue.
Need for a stable Govt. Significant no. of people are not committed to any one party, are floating vote and will opt for a combination of party which will look near to form govt.
Definitely fancy drawing room discussion topics are non-issue and prove to be a non drawer at the hustings; like
Nuclear Power Deal
much hyped Manmohan Singh so-called corruption free image
Sonia-Rahul-Priyanka Gandhi family pseudo-charm
False Bharat Nirman campaign
National security and
Terrorism (see Mumbai, which faced worst terrorist attacks not more than six months back, witnessed abysmally low voting, meagre 40%)
May 5, 2009 at 2:02 PM
Maridos,
Ur analysis on Rajasthan is bang on. Are you a Journalist by profession???
Ur analysis of Assam and Bihar was also bang on.
May 5, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Maidros,
Sorry, I got ur name wrong in the last post. Once again my appreciations for ur brilliant analysis of Rajasthan, Assam, Bihar.
May 5, 2009 at 11:35 PM
Why our Election Commission can’t see the direct violation of poll code of conduct?? this is the getting done by ruling party repeatedly…
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/Forces-disability-family-pension-hiked/articleshow/4487562.cms
May 6, 2009 at 6:04 AM
Chakreshji … POR analysis is turning out to b true and LIAR media is getting exposed…
Polls head for photo-finish as BJP plays catch-up
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/LS-p … 488548.cms
6 May 2009, 0012 hrs IST, TNN
The race for emerging as the single largest party and the largest pre-poll alliance in the Lok Sabha election has become really tight. Polling is
yet to be held in 171 seats, although campaigning is over in all but 86 seats. And as parties go into the final stretch of the race, it looks like it will be a photo-finish.
It also seems quite clear now that whichever party or formation emerges as the biggest bloc, it will still have to rope in many more partners after the election in order to form a stable government. By themselves, the two top groups – UPA and NDA – are certain to fall well short of the majority mark of 272.
TOI’s political bureaus in 14 different cities and its network of correspondents have been tracking the poll’s progress to bring you their best estimates of the likely results. We have done two rounds and here’s the third. When we began, it looked like Congress was well ahead of BJP and the UPA was more than 20 seats ahead of the NDA. No longer.
The Congress, according to our estimate, now looks like ending up with 152 seats and the UPA with 195. The BJP, we feel, is likely to get 145 seats and its allies another 42, taking the NDA’s tally to 187. In other words, the gap between the two pre-poll alliances seems no more than 8 seats, and as these are nothing more than estimates, it’s really tough to say which way the electoral see-saw will eventually tilt.
The bigger message that’s emerging from this scenario is that the leading parties as well as alliances could be separated by less than 10 seats. This would obviously mean that the Left and “Others” could end up deciding who forms the next government.
The current estimates differ from the earlier one in several states. Among the most significant differences is that in Uttar Pradesh – we now feel both the Congress and the BJP might do better than earlier anticipated. Between them and the BJP’s ally, Ajit Singh’s RLD, they could win 30 of the state’s 80 seats. The rest, we believe, will be split 28-22 between the BSP and the SP.
We also believe that in the two southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, the Congress may suffer a greater setback than we had earlier estimated. The TDP-led “grand alliance” appears to have done better than expected, particularly in the Telengana region, while Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam has done some damage to Congress in the coastal areas.
In Tamil Nadu, which is to poll in the last phase on May 13, the momentum appears to be clearly shifting towards the AIADMK-led alliance and not just because of the Sri Lankan issue. With more than a week still to go, if the trend continues, the final tally may be even lower for the UPA.
In Bihar, while the JD(U)-led NDA seems to have performed spectacularly well, as we had projected, the RJD-LJP alliance may have done even worse than we initially thought, while the Congress may end up winning just about three seats.
Offsetting the declining estimates for the Congress and UPA in AP and Tamil Nadu, our current estimates in Orissa and Punjab are that the Congress could have gained some momentum. In Maharashtra, on the other hand, it is the BJP-Sena alliance that we now believe is still holding a slender lead over the Congress-NCP combine.
May 8, 2009 at 11:02 AM
After 4th face its clear that bjp comes in over india a biggest leading party and party got 180-200(nda298) seats and after result many third front’s parties and independent candidate will join nda and so its clear that next is bjp(nda)and i will be sure that many states bjp won all seats and l.k. advaniji is our next pm.
May 11, 2009 at 2:11 PM
Hi,
who makes the govt.will be immaaterial by Noon of 16th of May’09.But do u all the intellectual people think over the main issue, that if our political system has been successful in achieving what it was supposed to?Don’t u feel that the bigger chunk of our pliticians at present r dishonest as well as ANTI-NATIONAL?If we actually feel so,why not start a healthy discussion over this sothat one day this discussion may be taken to the grass route level &let the rural public may also think over this issue.After the formation of the Govt.,may be the riht time for it.
May 12, 2009 at 10:19 AM
This analysis, which was brought out on April 21,2009 is now proving to be an Oracle. NDA seems like it is fast moving to the 225 mark. With AIDMK/BSP/TDP/BJD supporting it, NDA is well on its way to form the government.
Watch out for the RIVER INTEGRATION PLAN of the NDA – this is going to be the most talked about and progressive development in this sub-continent. With water reaching villages, the next step would be advanced irrigation systems, controlled environment agriculture and other processes that can change the very face of rural INDIA.
Let us all PRAY that NDA comes to power. Forget the ‘Secular’ Frauds – when we become a wealthy country, all religions will learn to live with harmony. There is no religion more tolerant than Hinduism on the face of this PLANET.
May 12, 2009 at 11:04 PM
The prophecy of POR is coming true.
It has been said So it shall be …
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/NDA-will-win-225-Lok-Sabha-seats-says-TRS-chief-/articleshow/4521564.cms
NDA will win 225 Lok Sabha seats, says TRS chief
HYDERABAD: Telangana Rasthra Samiti (TRS) president K Chandrasekhar Rao, who sprang a surprise by announcing support for NDA, on Tuesday
expressed confidence that the alliance would win at least 225 Lok Sabha seats on its own.
“It is clear that the UPA would not get more than 160 seats. On the other hand, the NDA will get 225 on its own,” he said.
NDA parties would do well at the cost of their opponents in states like Maharashtra and Bihar, said Rao, who called on senior BJP leader M Venkaiah Naidu in New Delhi
.
Rao, who sided with the Third Front and fought the elections in Andhra Pradesh in alliance with the Left parties and TDP, dealt a blow to the Third Front by declaring support for NDA at a rally organized by the coalition on May 10 in Ludhiana.
“We will not only support NDA with an open heart but also rope in others to support it,” Rao told the rally.
Naidu hoped that more parties opposed to the Congress would join the BJP-led grouping.
Earlier in the day, he told reporters in Hyderabad that TRS’ decision would strengthen the NDA.
August 31, 2009 at 3:54 AM
Great blog you got here…keep up the good work.